Fantasy Football Today - Eight Fascinating Fantasy Facts! (02/21 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: February 21, 2024

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and wherever else you listen to podcasts Get ready to be fascinated! We'll give you some fun Fantasy facts and stats throughout the show beginning with one about Russell Wilson (3:45). Believe it or not, he was actually pretty solid in 2023! Then we'll update you on the news and notes (9:30) and talk about CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott (11:10) and just how awesome they were ... Fascinating Fantasy facts on D.J. Moore (18:30), the Bills offense (22:40) and Nico Collins (28:40). Collins is in some impressive company, but could regress in 2024. How are we drafting the Bills offensive stars next season? ... We get into how Jaylen Waddle struggled with De'Von Achane on the field (34:50), how good James Conner was (37:40) and why D.K. Metcalf should be scoring more TDs (43:35)! Does Metcalf have more upside than Tee Higgins? ... Email us at [e-mail] SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. What a play! Can you believe this? No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races, and he stays on his feet. He's just going dominate your fantasy league. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Fascinating fantasy facts from your friends on fantasy football today.

It's a lot of Fs. Wow. Welcome, everybody. And Heath is back. Oh, my gosh, Heath. We haven't spoken since the Super. Wow. Welcome, everybody. And Heath is back. Oh, my gosh, Heath. We haven't spoken since the Super Bowl. But before, unbelievable. It shouldn't be a week and a half after the Chiefs win the Super Bowl for us to get to hear from you.

So congratulations. It takes me that long to recover from the Chiefs winning the Super Bowl before I can appear in public. Yeah, that was my first fascinating fact. Did you know that the Chiefs have won three of the last five Super Bowls? I had no idea. So can you rank them in terms of your enjoyment? This one was probably third. The first one was definitely first. I'd go in order.

The first one, the second one, the third one. But this was an overtime win? Walk-off? It was, yeah. But they've all been dramatic. Like, they've been down by two scores at halftime or later in all three of them. Yeah, right. Okay, all right.

That was good. That was exciting, though. I mean, congratulations. It must have been a lot of fun. How do you rank the Giants Super Bowl wins? Well, I'm only going to rank two of them because it's the only ones I remember. The first one, 0-7 and then 11.

Both of those were absolute thrillers, too. I always say, you know, well, I actually never say this, but I always think this. When I was growing up, the Super Bowls were always terrible. It was like cowboys would kill everyone, and then you had that 49ers-Chargers game. It just didn't have good Super Bowls were always terrible. It was like Cowboys would kill everyone, and then you had that 49ers-Chargers game.

It just didn't have good Super Bowls in the 90s. We get good Super Bowls all the time now. It's excellent. They hired better writers. All right, Dave's here as well. Welcome back, Dave. Yep. I have a useless stat of the day for you, okay?

Good. Derrick Henry has now finished second in rushing in two straight seasons. Did that with 1,538 yards in 2022, but last year, Derek Henry finished second in rushing with 1,167 yards. That is the fewest yards for the second leading rusher since, just take a guess,

give me a year, the last time ever second leading rusher had that few yards or less. 1,167. Dave says ever. How far back did it have to go?

Super Bowl era. Super Bowl era. 2015. 2015. Was that the Devontae Freeman year? I know what year you're talking about. That's not the answer. The D'Angelo Williams year. year you're talking about. That's not the answer. The D'Angelo Williams year.

I think it was. Jamie, you have a guess? 2006. 1974. So basically ever. That's how bad of a year. That was a 14-game season, right? Probably.

Actually, there is a one. 1982 was the strike-shortened that 1974 so that's how bad of a year i like the fact that we've started with an azure setting of an azure stat just right out of the gate well you got to get rid of this strike sort right everybody does that all right here's our fast we have i think eight fascinating fantasy stats hopefully we can get to all of them because the title says eight. So we'll try to do that. I have here's number one. Then we'll talk a few news and notes and we'll get back to it.

Number one. I just thought this was interesting. Despite, I said, missing two games, but really being benched for two games. Russell Wilson finished ninth in touchdown passes and seventh in rushing yards among quarterbacks. I do think people are just going to write off Russell Wilson, but maybe even more fascinating, he averaged the same amount of points per game as Jared Goff. He was the number 13 quarterback per game

and six points per pass in touchdown leagues, number 14 per game and four points per pass in touchdown leagues. Dave Richard, did Russell Wilson do enough to consider him a solid backup quarterback in fantasy next season? Maybe, but that's the first thing. I think he'll still be in the league. I think he'll begin the year as a starter and then probably lose the job. But I'm not drafting him in a 1QB league,

and I'm probably not going to draft him until the mid-late rounds in a 2 QB league. And I'm probably not going to draft him until like the middle eight rounds in a two QB league. The only, the only saving grace in a two QB league is that he's someone who should begin the year as a starter. So you'll be able to squeeze out some points just by him being available the first six to 10 weeks of the season.

And I just, I don't know. I got it. I said this a lot during the season i just like we're just completely dismissing your fascinating facts right off the bat adam he was better in terms of fantasy production than we ever gave him credit for right during the season um so if he has a starting job at the beginning of the year i think he's a high-end qb2 he came out in the projections i finished my projections right before i went to las vegas and he came out way way higher than i would like him because of some of those facts because he's

always been a high touchdown guy and he did it again uh in terms of rate and he's he's always been a guy who adds value with his legs and he was even better than he'd been in three years in terms of rushing per game and that's going to project pretty well right where are the starting jobs that aren't expected to take a rookie atlanta and pittsburgh raiders and i'd keep denver in the fold just in case they they own so much money they are done with they try and make it work raiders is an interesting call to the raiders raiders with devante adams would be very interesting that feels like the only place though because, because from what Pittsburgh has said, it doesn't sound like he's going there.

Atlanta, maybe. I mean, Tampa, maybe. Minnesota. Schaefer's going to say Minnesota, and I'm going to say the Giants as a wild card. Minnesota's a good one, yeah. Minnesota would be very interesting. I do wonder about the rushing, right?

The rushing yards, the last yards per game rushing the last three years for Wilson. 13.1, 18.5, 22.7. I'm going to say he probably needs to be over 20 rushing yards per game to be fantasy relevant. Would you agree with that? Depends on how many passes he throws. And not if he's in Minnesota. It's true.

Yeah. All right. Well, I did think it was worth, at least worth pointing out. Fascinating fantasy fact. Russell Wilson was not that bad for fantasy last year. Great start. Same amount of points per game as Jared Goff. I think that kind of puts things in perspective.

Definitely. They were very close. His last six games, one game above 20 fantasy points. So great start for sure. And then it's like, as soon as they told him, Hey, by the way, you're making too much money we're gonna eventually sit you down he just it's weird how that would affect one's performance crazy right crazy but he was significantly better than trevor lawrence last year right

oh yeah yes for game trevor was at 18 19 uh i'll tell you what was better than Russell Wilson last year, though. Sportsline. Let's take a look at Sportsline. All right, folks, this is something that can be your best friend. Very low price, and you can make a lot of money from Sportsline. Great gambling content and 60% off. Holy cow, 60% off an annual plan. If you go to Sportsline.com slash join and use the promo code winners

winners at sportsline.com slash join you get 60% off an annual plan so what do we have on sportsline we do have fantasy content all that stuff you hear from Jacob Gibbs by the way we have beyond the box score next week you get that and a lot more on sportsline during the season of course you get some DFS help from

absolute DFS experts by the way and you get great gambling content as well. So check out. And Heath wants to say something. And I just updated yesterday my Dynasty trade charts, which are exclusively on Sportsline, both Superflex and 1QB. I changed some of the draft pick values. We've now tiered those 2024 rookie draft picks on the trade chart. If you're looking to

trade this. Yes. So actually you're going to get exclusive content from Dave, Jamie and Heath during the season on Sportsline and now some during the off season as well. Again, sportsline.com slash join and use the promo code winners. We do have an email of the day, a big shout out to our boy, Brian Smith, who says regarding Dan Schneier's Game of Thrones mix-up, I had to jog my memory for a bit. So, yeah, like, Jamie, I couldn't remember Dan's hilarious Game of Thrones mix-up. But Brian did.

He said, I thought to myself, didn't it have something to do with Ghostbusters somehow? And then it came to me. Someone's email greeted you all as Dear Peter, Winston, Ray, and Egon. Not knowing the reference, Dan threw out Game of Thrones as a guess. And then I think

Jamie came up with a mashup of Egon Targaryen. Actually, I don't think that's how... I think Dan said that. He said, oh, Egon. Okay, that's Egon Targaryen. And then we made fun of him relentlessly. So, thank you, Brian, for reminding us of that. Oh, I remember that day.

That was fun. All right. Some news and notes. Seahawks GM Mike McDonald said that the team will be physical and will run the ball and possess the ball. Head coach. I was hoping he was going to say they're going to be a bunch of wimps and try and win by taking needles. Not GM.

Head coach Mike McDonald, pardon me. Former Ravens defensive coordinator. What else is he supposed to say? No, I mean, he didn't have to. He basically said, for what it's worth, that they're going to be a running team or at least try to be a running team. Defensive head coach talking about

being a running team. Don't love that for DK and JSN. Atlanta GM and he is the GM. Terry Fontenot said that quarterback is a top priority for them this offseason. So we keep hearing that. That's not a surprise. No bleep. Yeah.

Atlanta tight end coach Kevin Kroger said that Kyle Pitts can be an asset in the run game. And that doesn't mean they're going to hand off to him, that you're going to see him all over the field, including in the box. Ugh. I don't know. I mean, I don't know. This has been some news and notes you've given us. I know.

And then finally, final news and note item, Dave had jury duty yesterday. How'd that go? It was about as good as your news and notes were just now. Totally boring. Nothing to report of interest. You get a case or what? I went to a courtroom.

I was part of a panel. They did not pick me for the jury for a civil car accident case. Okay. I've never had jury duty. I'm going to throw that out there. Thank goodness for the people who need fair and honest jurors. Jury duty proof, baby. You can't get me. All right. I'm going to throw that out there. Thank goodness for the people who need fair and honest jurors. Jury duty proof, baby.

You can't get me. All right. You're about set up for nothing like four years in a row. Fascinating fantasy fact number two. Let's go back to the list here. This is from Dave. C.D. Lamb averaged in PPR 14.9 PPR points per game in his first six games. Then they had their bye, and CeeDee Lamb came back,

and he went from 14.9 points per game to 28.5 points per game in the last 11 games of the season, which is absurd. And Dak Prescott was 16 points per game before the bye and 29 points per game after the bye. What do you want to say about that, Dave Richard? Well, the targets were the biggest thing that stood out to me. He averaged seven targets per game in his first six and then not quite double, but still 12.6 targets per game. I would think that any good wide receiver that's going to get double digit targets will be great for fantasy, but 12.6 targets per game coming out to 28 and a half PPR points per game and almost 20 non PPR points per game. If the Cowboys stick with it, let's just say that they don't sink a lot of capital into their run game and they just say, OK, we're just going to keep throwing to CD Lamb.

He's unstoppable. You can make the case that he should be drafted ahead of Christian McCaffrey next year. I don't know if that's going to happen. We got to see the whole offseason play out before we lock into that. But CeeDee Lamb's awesome. He proved it this year, and the Cowboys were smart to run the offense through him. How do you look at a guy who in four seasons has averaged 13.2, 14.6, 17.7,

and then 23.8 points per game, which obviously is great. He's getting better, but also that's a huge outlier, right, Heath? I think that means he's going to average 30 next year. Yeah. I've got him projected at 20, so kind of a mix of the last two seasons. He said 17 and 23 over the last two years.

That sounds about right. I think you expect a little bit of regression, but better than two years ago. I think you almost think of that 17-point season. What was that? 2022, obviously. 17.7 in 2022. I think he can beat that. I think he can get close to the 20-point mark. There's really three other wide receivers maybe that can come to four who can come close to that well he's in his prime and i think we got to see like dave said you know what

it's nearly not so much about the running game for me it's more about the the rest of the receiving core because it was pretty bad behind him i mean brandon cooks was doing a good job finding the end zone but he's you know a 30 year old guy that is at the end of his, I think, run as being a productive number two receiver. Michael Gallup really took a step back, I think, from what the Cowboys were hoping. Jalen Tolbert's not that guy. So what do they do to bring in some help there? Is it another retread or is it going to be somebody that can actually be productive? And that's going to be a big part of this.

And then you factor in the run game. You know, Michael Parsons came out this week and said he would like to see Tony Pollard get another chance, you know, for what that's worth. But if it's, you know, a Josh Jacobs, a Saquon Barkley, you know, one of those type of guys, then you can be a little bit concerned, I think, maybe about the production for Lamb. But I really think that, you know, what we talked about on yesterday's show, Adam, with, you know, Dak Prescott, you know, can he, you know, live up to being the number one quarterback? And Tara Roberts laid out the case, you know what we talked about this on yesterday's show adam with uh you know dak prescott you know can he you know live up to being the number one quarterback and and tara roberts laid out the case you know that that he can you know still be you know the number one quarterback in fantasy based on how this offense was running and really how cd lamb was operating so you know we'll see if it's uh if it's the case but yeah it's uh it's a very interesting um i'm gonna probably do the the magazine story on who's the number one receiver in fantasy because you can make a case for really four guys.

And, you know, Lamb has certainly got probably the best case coming off of what he just accomplished with Tyreek Hill entering age 30 and Justin Jefferson not having a quarterback that's solidified right now and Jamar Chase obviously having the Joe burrow concern. So if you like lamb, the best, you should probably plan on drafting him no later than probably third overall. I'll just give this on,

on Dak. I didn't get a chance to say this about Dak yesterday, but if you look at Dak's points per game in his last five seasons, that's really when his career took off. They made Kellen more than the offensive coordinator and Dak Prescott was set loose a little bit. He's averaged between 24.2 and 24.7 points per game in three of five seasons. And in those three seasons, that made him the number four, the number seven, and the number two quarterback per game. And I guess it just kind of showed like he's been very consistent except for a bad 2022 when he threw a lot of interceptions.

Dak's been very consistent, but it looked better this year because quarterback wasn't so good. So I mean, I would, I would say that if he can, if he can average 24 points per game, that's all, that's really good.

I was too low on him when we did our initial top 12s, but this kind of opened my eyes a little bit, just how consistent he has been except for last year. I wonder what would happen if they got off to a poor start knowing McCarthy's in a lame duck year and how much he's involved with his offense and how things really turn for Dak and lamb if they fire him. Yeah.

Hope that does not happen. Um, and everyone else that faces the Cowboys in the playoffs hopes that doesn't happen. All right, let's take a break. Oh no, good.

Good. I was just going to say, uh, you didn't mention Jake Ferguson in the pecking order for the receivers in Dallas because he's a tight end, not a wide receiver, but he had over 100 targets last year. He was second on the team. I would think that if they added… That's kind of a conflict for what Jack has done. I mean, he's always had…

Sure. Oh, no. He was a tight end. Yeah, sure. So I think that was almost just like byproduct of what they had. So if they do add a big time, number two wide receiver, it absolutely would splinter lambs targets, but it would hurt Ferguson more. And I thought I read somewhere that Jacobs was going to end up being a

priority for the Cowboys. And if that ended up happening, there's somebody, any running back that can catch the ball would further take targets away from lamb. So we, you just have to wait and see how this is going to shake out. I'm going to take a break now.

When we come back, we'll talk about DJ Moore. We'll talk about the Bills and what their offense looked like with Joe Brady at offensive coordinator. Nico Collins and Moore will be right back on FFT. Bumble knows it's hard to start conversations. Hey, no, too basic. Hi there. Still no. What about hello, handsome? Who knew you could

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DJ Moore. Probably going to be a second round pick going into 2024. He averaged 17 points per game in PPR for the season that made him wide receiver nine per game. But let's get rid of those Bajent games and just look at what DJ Moore did with Justin Fields. Not even, you know, not amazing passer or anything, just Justin Fields. 19.8 points per game, which would have made him wide receiver six per game, but really would have put him in that elite tier, you know, just behind, I think, A.J. Brown. So, Heath, your boy, D.J. Moore, you're early.

Yeah. Yeah, so, but what, I mean, that's... I'll buy a lot of stock of Miles Sanders this year. Yes, exactly. That's right. That's really amazing. Almost 20 points per game with Justin Fields. And he probably won't be playing with Justin Fields.

So, like like the ever evolving quarterback situation of DJ Moore, I don't necessarily love the idea that he's going to have a rookie quarterback. I would like it more for DJ Moore if they just traded back and he was the number one wide receiver for Justin Fields this year. I don't think that's what's going to happen though. And so I'd pull back a little bit on what he did last year, especially maybe it's better to just expect something around what he did factoring in agent. Um, because there's, there's, I've seen it a lot with a lot of quarterbacks. Now we have the CJ Stroud example as well. And if that happens, then maybe DJ Moore is worth a first round pick this year.

But for the most part, we see rookie quarterbacks really struggle in their first year as passers. So 16 fantasy points per game is right about where I've got them. Two-three turn, late second. Sounds good. You forgot another news and note that regards the Bears. Justin Fields. Oh, yeah. He took the Bears.

He unfollowed them on Instagram. He wiped the social media. I think his dog followed the Falcons, too. He took the Bears. He unfollowed them on Instagram. He wiped the social media. I think his dog followed the Falcons, too. Right. He started following all the Falcons guy. I don't know. I can't do a news item every time someone does something on social media. You 100% should when we're in February.

Okay, fair. But also, Dave had jury duty. That needed to be discussed. Yeah, all right. Um, yeah. All right. So, so DJ more, how about like his yards per target in six seasons,

9.6, 8.7, 10.1, 7.1, 7.5. And then back to 10 in 2023, he's been a pretty interesting head scratching player, but he says two,

three turn Jamie. You think DJ more will be available at the 2-3 turn? No. Not in three receiver leagues. Dave, do you think DJ Moore will be available in a two receiver league at the 2-3 turn? Maybe if it's a rookie quarterback and the Bears

draft a rookie wide receiver with that ninth pick in round one. Heath, are you prepared to not have DJ Moore? I mean, I'll probably jump up and grab a couple of a cup and a couple of drafts, but yeah, I think that if we're talking early in round two, there's going to be some incredible wide receivers available there as well. So I'll be okay with it. I mean, if we're going to talk regression with all these players that had superstar years, we should do it with DJ Moore.

13.4 PPR points per game in 2021. I'm going to Acer stat 2022. I'm going to take out his games with Baker Mayfield. He averaged 14.5 in those games. I think that's the number that you should look for from DJ Moore. If he's got a rookie quarterback and the Bears don't add another wide receiver. Under 15 PPR points per game. I thought I had a Dave Richard stat song. Oh yeah. Telling listeners where they're at. Bill from Delaware. That's just

Dave Richard stats. There you go. You have a jingle too. Okay, let's go to the Bills. So this is another one that Dave wanted to talk about here. Josh Allen, James Cook, Stefan Diggs, what they did in their seven regular season games with Joe Brady. And what would you say your big takeaway is? A fascinating fantasy fact about new offensive coordinator, now hired full-time

joe brady for the bills he liked to run the football and he liked to lean on james cook and we were talking about that in real time when it was happening during the season and the end result was fewer games of like massive josh allen numbers fewer games by far of Stefan Diggs, massive numbers. And James Cook was crushing it. He kind of struggled toward the end of the year and into the playoffs. And Josh Allen kind of went back to doing his thing. Not that that helps Stefan Diggs, but he really did change how the offense operated and he's there to stay in Buffalo. And I'm very curious how the bills are going to move forward with their passing game and who they might bring in. They've got some key players. I think Diggs is going to end up staying.

Kincaid could pull a Ferguson and be number two on the team in targets next year. He could even be number one. That's a long shot. But who's going to be that next wide receiver? Because Gabe Davis could be shown the door, regardless of what he posts on Instagram and what he says his big playoff stats are. Is Shakir that guy? Do they add somebody else? Do they finally go and get DeAndre Hopkins like they were rumored to last year?

Who knows? But that's a team that I think will add a quality wide receiver. Not that it'll necessarily help, because I think James Cook is doing his thing. Joe Brady will ride him like he did in the last seven games of the season. What week was he hired? Was it the offensive coordinator change? I think it was week 12.

It was after the Denver loss. It was week 11 after the Denver loss. Yeah. Denver loss was week 10. His first game was week 11. And Josh Allen averaged about 35 pass attempts per game before Ken Dorsey got fired. And then you look at the next seven games,

and I think it was about 32 pass attempts per game. But there was a game against Dallas where they won by 21 points, and he threw 15 passes. That really low. There was also a game against Philadelphia where he threw 51. It is, but that was like a competitive game. Yeah, it's true. But then you look at the two playoff games,

and he threw 35 pass attempts per game. So I'm thinking it probably won't be as dramatic of a drop-off in pass attempts. But I don't know. It was conservative. His last six games, if you count the playoffs, he had 237 passing yards or fewer in five of those six and one touchdown pass or zero in four of those six.

That doesn't sound like a guy that I'd love to take first off the board at his position. Now he had like eight rushing touchdowns in those six games. So it didn't matter for fantasy production. That sounds like somebody I'd like to take first off the board at their position. No, it's a great question, though. What they do at receiver is going to be big, but also what they do at running back is going to be big.

I mean, their depth at that position is awful. And they made, I don't know if it was a hugely aggressive move, but they made an aggressive move to go get Damian Harris in terms of what they spent in free agency based on how the market unfolded last year. And Sean McDerm to go get Damian Harris, you know, in terms of what they spent in free agency, uh, based on how the market unfolded last year. And Sean McDermott was very high on Harris and he just didn't pan out, you know, mostly due to injury.

So I've already seen at least one Buffalo story say that that's a big priority for them is, is addressing their backfield. I don't think that takes cook out of the lead role unless they make a somewhat dramatic splashy move, but, um,'s something you definitely want to keep an eye on because if you're going to invest heavily in Cook and somebody of significance comes in, we may not see all that work going his way. They might pull a Seahawks and take a running back in round two.

That's something they haven't – I don't think – when did they get Cook? Was he a round two pick? Three, I think. I want to say three. i know he's a day two three sounds right we can double check that but i i remember one of my biggest second second round 63rd overall late so that's round two but it's like the end of round two yeah so like one of my biggest beefs with the bills was that they never spent significant capital on the running back. The closest they've got is with Cook at 63.

I wonder if they'll try it again with a late second rounder, and that would definitely spill the value on Cook. All right, so here's my question. Knowing Joe Brady was more conservative, or at least more run heavy, and James Cook, I mean, looking at these carries per game, really impressive. You've got four bills right now, four major bills. Quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end.

How do you draft them? What's the order of drafting the bills? Cook will go first in most. You, how would you do it? Cook will go first. Okay. Over Diggs would you do it? Cook will go first. Okay. Over Diggs? Oh, yeah.

I have no interest in Diggs. Cook will go first for me. I mean, I would draft Diggs second, but he'll probably be gone before I pick him. But I guess I'd rank them Cook, Diggs, Allen, Kincaid. But I have the most interest in Kincaid. Yeah, I have Diggs first. It's all going to be relative to where they're drafted, but I'm leaning Cook, Allen, Diggs, Kincaid.

And I've got Diggs, Allen, Cook, Kincaid. Figuring that Cook isn't going to be the workhorse that he was. Also, only two rushing touchdowns, which is low, but that could be an issue for James Cook. I mean, all they have to do is draft one of these physical running backs that they can use not only to take Cook off the field on running downs, but also, oh man, this is going to hurt to hear, take away some short yardage opportunities from Josh Allen.

I don't even think they can at this point. They've talked about doing that for two or three years i don't think josh allen's going to allow that he's not getting any younger and he's such a huge he is their offense he loves getting hit like it's it's one thing to tell the guy we want you to take fewer hits but then he gets into the game and he sees a linebacker eight yards away and sprints directly towards him and throws a shoulder at him points his finger at him as he's doing it. All right, next stat. Next fascinating fantasy fact. Nico Collins.

I'm going to put him in some pretty good company here. Nico Collins was the number eight wide receiver per game. He was top 12 overall. He averaged 6.9 yards after the catch per reception, and he had an ADOT of 10.9 yards. So which players, I dropped it down to 6.8 because he was at 6.9 yak per catch. Which players over the last five years have been at 6.8 or more yak per catch,

which is very high, which is like top five every year, with a double-digit yard ADOT? And you've got three guys who we hopefully can just eliminate because they didn't have that many catches. Cam Sims, MVS, Meikle Hardman. If we eliminate them and we look at a guy who actually had like a lot of catches, you're talking about guys who have done that much yak with that high of an ADOT. AJ Brown in 2019, Jamar Chase in 2021, Jalen Waddle in 2022, and Nico Collins in 2023. So that is the company. that is hard to do.

I mean, the higher your a dot, usually the lower your yak and he had both, but further investigation with AJ Brown, with Jamar chase, with Jalen Waddle, they have not repeated that. And Nico Collins is not going to repeat that.

He was much too efficient. So on one hand, he showed a tremendous talent and big too efficient. So on one hand, he showed a tremendous talent and big playability. On the other hand, it's not going to happen again, almost certainly. So Heath, what do you do with that?

This is the problem with what we do is like we find these really awesome things and then say, man, look how awesome that was. And then look at how everyone else who did something like that in the season wasn't able to repeat it. So he's not going to repeat it.

Yeah, I think you should expect definitely some efficiency regression from Nico Collins. What it's going to come down to is if he and Tank Dell both stay healthy for 17 games, is there enough targets to make them both elite options? I think there probably is. I would expect a few more pass attempts from CJ Stroud and a

little more concentrated attack. I'm going to go back and forth for the next six months over which one I like better, but currently it's Tank Dill. And Jamie, I should point out that AJ Brown and Jamar Chase and Jalen Waddle, they did not repeat those performances of high

ADOT and high YAC, but both Brown and Chase follow it up. Those are their rookie seasons. They followed up those seasons with less efficient seasons, but a lot more targets and they were elite for fantasy. So while Nico, and that's what Heath was saying. It's like,

he just needs more targets. Nico's not going to do this on a per target basis, but Collins and Chase, or sorry, AJ Brown and Chase were both elite the next year. Waddle is, I guess, probably what would concern you, because the big plays just weren't there for Waddle. And I guess he just didn't, you know, I mean, I've talked about him so much, he didn't really play that.

Actually, we're going to talk about him shortly. But you know what I'm saying? It's like, he doesn't have to, I don't want to alarm people and say he can't be elite because Brown and Chase were, even though their efficiency went down. I think the best thing that happened to Nico Collins was Bobby Sloak staying in Houston.

And so the yak makes me feel a little safe. Sure, that's a good point. Because that's the 49ers offense. That's just kind of the nature of what they've done. You know, it was the case for Mike McDaniel was the case for slow. Like it's the case where, you know,

almost all these guys, it gives you hope for the new Orleans situation. We could be at going there, you know, that that's just going to kind of carry over. So I I'm, I'm still expecting some, some quality numbers for Nico Collins.

Obviously it's interesting with, with some of these guys too because A.J. Brown didn't really have a running mate in Tennessee. Corey Davis wasn't exactly the level of a Tyreek Hill or a T. Higgins. But you can make a case that Nico Collins has one of those guys and Tank Dell, as he said, he would take Dell over him. So how those targets get distributed to both of them. But in the case of Collins, this was kind of what we were hoping for going into last year,

was new quarterback, third-year breakout, and those things are what materialized. And so clearly CJ Stroud is going to improve, at least that's what we expect going into year two. And the fact that there's still continuity there is exciting. So this is a team I want to see what they do in their backfield because Singletary is a free agent, and obviously Damian Pierce is not going to be their lead option there. So how aggressive are they in bringing in something

to maybe change the run game? But in terms of just the stats we're talking about here, the yak I feel safe about, the ADOT probably will come down. All right. Well, we are going to take a little break here. When we come back, we'll talk about Jalen Waddle, DK Metcalf, James Conner, and I think one more player. We've got more freaking fun, fantastic fantasy facts.

I don't remember the name of the show. Fascinating fantasy facts. And we'll be fight facts. Freaking fun, man. Yeah, we'll be back right after this did you know that across ontario utility damage happens 19 times a day that's over 4222 incidents a year don't let your next dig be one that causes costly delays or safety risks before you break ground make it a point to request a locate it's not just the law It's a step to keep your team and community safe.

Visit OntarioOneCall.ca and avoid unnecessary damages to get the job done right. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. Dave hates Jalen Waddell. Dave, what's your fascinating fantasy fact about Jalen Waddell? There were five games with Tyreek Hill and Devon A. Chain on the field playing meaningful reps, meaning they didn't get hurt early on in the game or they didn't miss the game. And in all five of those games, Jalen

Waddle fell under 15 PPR points. He was healthy for all five of those games? He was. I have him at four. Well, yeah. He did leave. I think he left one early, right? I think it's four and a half games. You got the...

Okay. Is it week 16, Dallas game? I mean, I can see how many snaps he played. That's one of the games. He left that one after about 40% of the snaps, but it's four or five. It felt like he was hurt almost the entire second half of the season.

No, but I don't want to just dismiss this because it is a small sample size, but it is interesting. Oh, it's definitely interesting. I'm i'm just saying like in terms of health i don't think he was 100 for a good portion of the year i shouldn't have said it was interesting i remember him being hurt at training camp it's fascinating it was fascinating that's what we have today fascinating fantasy facts so what what weeks are these do we do we have the weeks? 4, 5, 13, 14, and half of 16. No, not 15. I don't think...

16. 16. Game 15. Week 16. 4, 5, 13, 14, 16. These are the five games that Jalen Waddell played with Tyreek Hill and Devon Achan playing meaningful snaps, and he did not score 15 PPR fantasy points in any of them,

and he did leave score 15 PPR fantasy points in any of them. And he did leave week 16 early, but no, it's, it's a, it's still a good point. And, um, what do you, Heath, what do you make of it? I don't know. It's, I mean, that Dallas game, he definitely played 43% of the snaps. So, um, it's a four game sample and he had eight targets in a couple of those games, which generally turns into fantasy points for Jalen Waddell. I don't think I make too much out of it.

Jalen? I'm sorry. Yeah, go ahead. I mean, he's going to be one of my favorite buys because I think he's going to slip on draft day, and I still think there's so much upside plus contract year coming up for him. So if healthy, I think he's going to be one of the better bounce back candidates from what we saw last year.

Are you just not feeling that, Dave? I'm not sure how I feel about him, to be perfectly honest. I get where Jamie's coming from. He's going to present good value on draft day. I think that's a lock to happen unless something happens to Tyreek Hill. So from that standpoint, I want to be in on jalen waddle but i'm i don't want to be i'm not going to draft him if i don't get that type of dip on draft day round what did i take him 37 well i mean in a draft you took him to the 3-4 turn yeah i think i went I went Higgins-Waddle or Waddle-Higgins. Yep.

You good with that, Dave? I'm double-checking to see where I have him ranked now. Yeah, I think I am. Yeah. He was 2-3 last year, so he falls to 3-4. That feels okay. That feels fine. Yeah.

All right, let's go to James Conner here. James Conner, another one from Dave. With Kyler Murray, 20 touches per game and 17.8 PPR fantasy points per game, 15.4 non-PPR fantasy points per game. In that stretch, James Conner was the number seven running back in fantasy, and he was basically that per game as well. A little bit better in non-and-half PPR than he was in full PPR. He was on pace for 40 catches, which isn't great. But, I mean, it's three years in a row with Arizona.

And I know we don't know if he's going to be on Arizona. He's going to be 29 years old. But it's unbelievable. Jamie, I'll go to you first. I mean, James Conner just keeps producing as a top 12 guy. And really, even better than that, you have to Acer stat the hell out of him because he leaves a lot of games early but but he's he's just really good with kyler murray really good and what do you make of it yeah he's fantastic he's too old for me so i probably won't be drafting him very much but um he like you said he's been productive and it's been uh some excellent

production which is hard to overlook so if he stay healthy, I think he'll end up being an unbelievable value pick because of how he'll probably still fall to round five or later. But still, you still got to be concerned that, you know, can he hold up for a full season? And, you know, how much will a healthy Kyler Murray plus an additional weapon in the passing game sort of change the way that this offense operates? So he'll still be good for when he's healthy, but just how long will he be healthy and hold up as he's getting closer to that dreadful age 30 for running backs?

He's not a free agent, right? He's a cut candidate maybe, but I believe so, but he's under contract. I think it's for about 9 million, which is kind of a lot for running back, but he's kind of, he's kind of earned it. All right. So let me say, would you guys take James Conner or Ken Walker? Walker. Walker.

Walker. Just because of age? Yep. Okay. Any more thoughts on this? I don't want to belabor the point. I mean, he's obviously awesome with the Cardinals, but he is getting old and he does miss time. It's another team that could add talent in the backfield. And that obviously would make sense since they know that he's 29 years old. They're not going to put all their eggs into his basket. And so he could end up splitting. He could end up being the type of running back that we're drafting in round six. And the

first four weeks of the season, it's a split that we don't like to see. Something happens where the other running back gets hurt or sucks or whatever and then they just put it all on Connor anyway. And he takes off just like he's done in now three years in Arizona. I looked it up. I think he's 8.4 million is his cap number this

year. They could save a little over half of that if they cut him. Final thing on him. The fact, Jamie, that he had such a great year at age 28, really his best, most efficient year of his career. Does that do any... I mean, I don't know how many 28-year-old running backs there are. I know McCaffrey's going to be 28.

Eckler's going to be 29, right? Henry's going to be 30. Nixon will be 28. Nixon will be 28. Okay. Barkley's going to be 28. Eckler's going to be 29, right? Henry's going to be 30. Nixon will be 28. Nixon will be 28. Okay. Barkley's going to be, what, 27? Yes. I don't know.

But 28's kind of a scary number for a running back, and Connor was great at 28. So, I don't know. Do you have any thoughts on that, Jamie? No, look, again, he'll have a handful, if not more, of very good games. But this is a guy that's got an injury track record to begin with. Like you said, you've got to azure stat a lot of it because he's missed time. And now you're adding another year to his resume

that you've just got to be a little bit more concerned about him not staying healthy and making it through a full season. I would love it because I think, again, he's going to be one of these guys that you get at such a great value. And if you're talking about an RB3 who's in the conversation to be one of your flex that you get at such a great value. And if you're talking about an RB three, who's in the conversation to be one of your flex plays, that's great. That's the type of guy you should be drafting. And if he goes zero RB, he's the type of guy you should be drafting. But if you're drafting him with the intent of I'm going to make him my RB two, I'm drafting him as a top

20 guy. And then you're probably going to end up regretting it by the end of the season because he's not going to make it through the majority of the year. I would just say that after going through the projections process, it feels like a majority of the guys that you draft as a top 20 guy, you're probably going to end up regretting it. There's a lot of running backs that I'm going to feel a lot

better about if I get to draft, as what Jamie said, that low, low-end number two in the 5-6 range. It seems like the guys that are going to creep into that three, four range. I think what's going to be fascinating is because of the guys who are available in free agency and will probably be cut candidates. Then we get to the draft where it's not exactly the most exciting class. Like we're going to be in really a situation where you might see running backs get pushed up, you know, and especially the top tier guys that are a little bit solidified you know so those are going to be a lot of fun

conversations you know markley on team x jacob's on team x mixing on potentially team x you know derrick henry team x you know like these are going to be we're going to have a lot of fun episodes once we get to free agency and then yeah i think we're doing a free agency preview tomorrow actually, so we'll start this exciting topic on Thursday and we'll just see how everything progresses. Alright, we've had seven fascinating fantasy facts so far.

Russell Wilson was basically Jared Goff last season. CeeDee Lamb was basically Jerry Rice for the last 11 games or whatever it was of 2023. DJ Moore averaged almost 20 fantasy points per game with Justin Fields. We talked about the Bills offense with Joe Brady.

We talked about Nico Collins and what only A.J. Brown, Jamar Chase, Jalen Waddell, and Nico Collins have done over the last five seasons. Jalen Waddell, we talked about him and how he struggled when Tyreek Hill and Devon Achan were both playing a significant role. And James Conner has just been awesome. Now let's talk about DK Metcalf.

I talked about this stat a lot last season, going into last season. So he's been top five in end zone targets in all four of his NFL seasons. And you know what? Now you can make it five. Five straight years, DK Metcalf has been top five in end zone targets. It is unbelievable. Since he entered the league,

he has, I think, 22 more end zone targets than any other player. And also in those five years, there've been a bunch of players who have made two appearances in the top five and end zone targets, no more than two though. And Metcalf's done it all five seasons. But here's the problem, Jamie. DK Metcalf has been really bad with end zone targets. And I was like, well, is it an ADOT thing? Is he just getting like 40-yard passes into

the end zone? No. His ADOT's pretty normal with the other guys who were in the top five there. He's just not catching a lot of them, especially the last two years. So on one hand, it's like, oh, this is great. He gets these opportunities. On the other hand, he doesn't do anything with them.

And then it's like, well, what if he doesn't get end zone targets? Then what are we looking at? So I don't know if this is just interesting and not much to do with it, but what do you think about Metcalf getting a bunch of targets in the end zone, a bunch, and just not doing much with it, especially the last two years?

I think, you know, on one hand, it gives you some hope that he's still going to be very productive, despite the fact that he can't convert a lot of these chances. But we talked about at the top of the show with what Mike McDonald said, that they want to be a little bit more run happy and run heavy. So how much of the throwing, passing will they continue to do when they get inside the 10, inside the 5? Probably not that much. You know, so I think you just of know what dk mcf is at this point you

know i i remember going back i think i referenced at some point during the season you know and and and heath was was like a lot of people in the dynasty community he was the number one receiver for or in top three for you know a couple years there because of what the upside was and you know being tied to russell wilson and he still was productive with Gino Smith. So give him credit, but he's not getting younger. And there's another guy that's in the mix now at this receiving core that is going to take some opportunities away as JSN gets better in his second season. And if Tyler Lockett stays, then that's, you know, another mouth to feed to.

He just kind of, I think just treat DK Metcalf as, as a safe number two wide receiver that if he has one of these seasons where the touchdowns start to, you know, get a little bit, you know, up there from, from, you know, they start to rack up a little bit, then you're thrilled about it, but you know, he'll probably be seven to nine touchdowns. He'll probably be, you know, 1200 yards. He'll be, you know, 85 plus catches. It's a very good receiver. You know, he's just not gonna, I think ever ascend to being the best of the best, which is okay. You know, 1200 yards, he'll be, you know, 85 plus catches. It's a very good receiver. You know, he's just not going to, I think ever ascend to being the best of the best, which is okay. You know, it's just not going to be, I think what a lot of people have hoped for. And for what it's

worth, um, as part of this magazine store, I asked him, you know, Hey, how do you rank the receivers at the pro bowl? For example, he's like, I'm not into lists. So I said, who's, who's the best one here? He goes, me, of course, you know, so, you know, still giving himself, you know, the due credit and, and was very complimentary of Gino Smith, very complimentary of you know playing for p carol and he said at that point mike mcdonald had just gotten hired he goes i haven't done my homework yet on him so i don't want to comment fully but i'm excited about that and i'll say like well maybe he hasn't had success we would like on the end zone targets you look at red zone targets there were eight players who had at least 20 red zone targets last year, according to

Pro Football Reference. DK was one of those eight players. CeeDee Lamb was the only guy who had more touchdowns than him on those red zone targets. He had six. Lamb had eight. Devonta Adams had six. Ridley had five. Tyreek had four.

Ferguson had five. Amunra had five. Rishi Rice had six. So he performed basically the same or better than most of the guys that were targeted in the red zone at the same rate he was. And yet he leaves a lot to be desired because on those 23 red zone targets with six touchdowns, only three of them were off target throws. Six of the passes were either passes, defense, close coverage. It means that he's not jostling well enough for the football against smaller defenders. Those are the types of plays that you expect DK Metcalf to win on.

You've heard about people say, well, he turns a 50-50 ball into a 60-40 ball. It's almost like DK turns a 50-50 ball into a 40-60 ball. Or maybe we should just say 50-50 because he has just as many passes that he doesn't catch as he does that he does catch for touchdowns. Well, and I, it doesn't really, I don't have advanced stats to back this up, but it's not really surprising to me that if DK doesn't have the entire length of the field to scare somebody, he's not as good at creating separation. He's not, we didn't think he was that kind of guy coming into the league. And so he probably has a lot more balls where there's someone right in his hip pocket when

he's in the red zone, I would assume. That's the point, is that we found six of them. And again, you'd think that he'd be able to beat a 5'11 cornerback on a one-on-one situation, and he just missed on six of those. Good points. And leave leaves a lot to be desired. I think is, I think you were specifically talking about him in the end zone of the red

zone, but that's kind of how I feel about DK. Maybe I won't feel that way anymore. Maybe I'm just going to lower my expectations and treat them like Jamie said. Question is, you know, does he have elite upside?

Cause he did have, I mean, his second season was phenomenal. 1,300 yards, 10 touchdowns. I think he was something like wide receiver seven. But wasn't that one of Russell's best final seasons in Seattle? Maybe his best final season in Seattle?

Yeah. I don't know. I'll tell you right now. Russell Wilson had 4,212 yards and 40 touchdowns. Yeah, that's a hell of a season. Sounds like a good season. Yeah. So does that sounds like a good season. Yeah. So does that mean he doesn't Metcalf?

Probably anyone could be top 12, right? But probably isn't going to get it. Do you not view him as having the same amount of upside as other wide receivers in his range? No. Last three seasons. But you just have to be realistic though i mean we we can certainly expect him at some point i should at some point because he's getting older but there's certainly the chance of him having one of those you know late later career breakouts but again i think

you just as long as gino smith is there and what they have added in the last couple of seasons, if Tyler Lockett stays, then it's hard to expect that to happen, but you know, there, there's still the, the chance of it. Yes. So, you know, I think when you're talking about your second wide receiver, especially in that round four range, like he's perfect. So I think of comparing him to a lobby, another guy who's had some touchdown problems um and also has maybe more quarterback question like i is dk or alave more likely to finish as a top 12 wide receiver next year see i would think alave here because of because of somewhat of the unknown of what he's shown so far and the potential to get there plus the addition of kubiak

i would say alave heath because because I'm a JSN guy, and not to say that I necessarily like him more than Metcalf, but if he takes a step up and they don't cut Lockett, which I don't think they're going to do, then yeah, that's an easy Olave for me. But looking at our drafts in January, I'll let you weigh in on that sorry but but metcalf is going in the range of amari cooper t higgins drake london those kind of guys after a lobby

after a lobby so and i have a lot of i think i'm probably lower on a lobby because i have a lobby behind those guys and dk in the olavi range i think maybe i would lean but i don't know like i would expect the saints to be pretty run heavy. And I was going to say I might lean Olave because of the hires they've made and the way their head coach is talking. And that pass volume might be low once again for Seattle. I mostly think either one of those guys

are going to be top 12 wide receivers. That's probably the best way to put it. I would say that Olave has a little bit more upside. And look, three years of DK Metcalf. This is his last three seasons. So we're going past his big 2020 year. 13.9, 13.3, 14.1. You can almost use a pen to write in around 14 PPR points per game.

And only twice all year last season did multiple Seattle receivers have 15 or more PPR points in the same game. And, and now we're hearing that they want to run the ball more with a college offense coordinator, which we know has been sort of hit or miss in the, I'm, I'm good with putting DK Metcalf at like 13.95 PPR points per game and

drafting accordingly. Okay. Uh, by the way, yeah, a lot of a, and our two drafts was a top 20 pick in both drafts. So if you like Metcalf as much as Olave, you can wait two rounds and get Metcalf.

But do you oil of Olave? No, I mean, you can't really think of a team name for Metcalf that's nearly as good. What was the team name I had yesterday? Oh, uh... Nico Suave. Nico Suave. You got it way on the limb there to get that one come on have you heard nico suave before it's good thank you i like it thank you i'm sure there's like a million of those you know i'm gonna type nico suave into

google and see what happens uh there's an instagram i hope this isn't Nico Collins' Instagram. No, it's not. Some guy named Nico Suave. I think I'm going to, I'm going to, I'm claiming it. I'm claiming it. It's me.

All right. All right. Good to have Dave and Heath back. And thank you for listening to our fantasy, fascinating fantasy facts from friends. We'll be back tomorrow

with a free Phaejan Sea Pheview and we'll talk to you if you want to watch FFT in 5. That's happening right now. We'll see you then. Bye everybody.