Fantasy Football Today - Eight Players That We've Completely Changed Our Minds On! (FFT Dynasty)

Episode Date: December 18, 2024

The true sign of intelligence is the ability to change one's mind when presented with new information and ideas. And to that effect, here are eight guys we've changed our minds on and can help your roster building in 2025 and beyond! 02:45 - Three Questions For Matt Donnelly 10:59 - Four Players That Changed Matt's Mind This Year 20:00 - Four Players That Changed Heath's Mind This Year 29:50 - Guys who are going to change everyone's minds in 2025 Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday SUBSCRIBE to FFT Express on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-express/id1528634304 Follow FFT Express on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6qyGWfETSBFaciPrtvoWCC?si=6529cbee20634da8 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 FOLLOW FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 SUBSCRIBE to FFT DFS on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dfs/id1579415837 FOLLOW FFT DFS on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5zU7pBvGK3KPhfb69Q1hNr?si=1c5030a3b1a64be2 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." Visit the betting arena on CBSSports.com for all the latest sportsbook reviews and sportsbook promos. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Should have skipped it. Skip to the good part and get groceries, meals, and more delivered right to your door on Skip. Welcome to Fantasy Football today, dynasty, I am your host, Heath Cummings joined today by my good friend, Matt Donnelly. He's been on the show many times before and it's always a good time when he's here. You can find him on social media at Matt Donnelly, FF. Matt, thank you for being here. Tell everybody where they can find your work.

Oh yeah, I'm pretty much a little bit here, a little bit there over at fantasypoints.com in the Discord channel. Basically a one-stop shop for all your starts and sits questions. I think on Sunday we had 300 starts and sits questions kind of come through. You know what Sunday morning is like,

especially the first round of the playoffs. Fun fact, driving up to Okotoks for a hockey game. Obviously I can't answer questions as I'm driving but luckily my daughter who loves to play on her phone anyway, I just handed her my phone, she asked me the questions, I answered it, she typed it, she hit send, so we're able to get everyone there. And of course you can find all my work, my writing, my articles and whatnot over at rotoballer.com. I do a dynasty there. I got a dynasty trade chart. So, hey, it works out perfect with what we're gonna talk about today. Absolutely.

And of course you mentioned it, the first round of the playoffs, like we spend a lot of time here talking about the long game, but this time of year, it's all about what happened this week. And I'm just gonna tell a little story for those of you who don't follow me on social media. I was up very late last night because I was facing

Jamie and our dynasty IDP league in the first round. This is a league where I have sold out traded my first pick next year and the following year back and forth game all week long, Jacobi Myers catches a pass with 15 seconds left, a 22 yard pass to give Jamie a lead of less than a point. I was crushed. My son was there watching with me. He says, man, fantasy football kind of sucks sometimes. I said, yes, it does.

I turned the TV off. I look at my phone and I see the Jesse Bates interception and it was an IDP league and I had Jesse Bates and it won me the league. And he's like, and my 15 year old says, man, fantasy football is awesome sometimes. That's exactly, that's exactly right. On today's show, we're going to try to take a little bit of the longer view once again. We'll definitely talk

about some guys who are relevant over the next couple of weeks. Players who have changed our minds in 2024 and then looking into the future, we're predicting who's going to change everyone's mind in 2025. We'll start with three questions for our guests as we often do. And Matt, one of the guys we saw play last night, Caleb Williams, you want to talk about a roller coaster ride. It's been a roller coaster of a last month with a couple of 30 point games, a couple of games that you just can't trust at all. I mean, you can talk about how you feel about Caleb Williams this week because

week 16 is actually a really bad week for quarterbacks now that everybody got hurt and benched, but also we're almost a full year into Caleb Williams career. What do you think about Caleb Williams period? I think we are seeing what we expected to see out of him. I mean, anyone who watched his time at USC, we saw the Heisman year and then we've seen the follow-up year. We know we're going to get Caleb Williams up and down, up and down. So it's never been the question, but I mean, when you see guys like Jayden Daniels and Bo Nicks go out there and absolutely

produce each and every week, I mean, how can you not feel a negative sense when it comes to Caleb Williams and his value moving forward? Chicago did something that no other team's done with the rookie quarterback that is surround himself with some offensive weapons this off season. We saw them signed Deandre Swift, we saw him sign Keenan Allen, we saw them draft Romo Dunezay. I mean, Jaden Daniels wasn't given these weapons, Bo Nitschur wasn't given these weapons and yet they've both outperformed him. And it's not like we haven't seen enough here to kind of make an actual kind of conversation here,

especially with Justin Fields. So everyone who was calling for Justin Fields head last season to get him out of there and whatnot, you gotta remember his last five, eight games with the Chicago Bears, he was five and three and he averaged 24 and.5 fantasy points per game. Well, Caleb Williams over the last 8 games with the Bears is 0-8 and he's only averaging 14.75 fantasy points per game. So, I mean, I'm going to caution people about labeling Williams a bust because we've already put that label on guys like Sam Darnold, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, and all these guys are the top 10 in fantasy. So I think the one thing with dynasty is we got to remember we have to play the long game. Now we don't have to like what Caleb Williams is doing and we can definitely put other plans in the place, surround, like get ourselves

another quarterback, super flex leagues, whatever it happens to be. It does take up a roster spot, but it is that built-in insurance policy for you so that in two, three years when Williams hopefully develops under Brown and whoever is the head coach moving forward, then maybe you're going to get that Sam Darnold, that Jared Goff, or that Baker Mayfield reward in two, three years rather than giving up too early. So I, there are six quarterbacks. I 100% sure know that I want more than Williams in a dynasty league. And everybody can probably name them Lamar, Alan Hertz, Daniels,

Burrow, Mahomes. After that, like we thought Anthony Richardson and CJ Stroud were going to be top eight dynasty quarterbacks. They've both been very disappointing so far this season. Justin Herbert just keeps to keep going the wrong way. I'm not quite ready to move Bo Nix ahead of Caleb Williams based on less than one season, but Bo Nix has certainly been more impressive so far this year. Caleb Kyler Murray is kind of like Caleb Williams, just absolutely all over the

place. So really it's a clear top six for me at quarterback. And then it gets very, very questionable. Speaking of questionable, Kenneth Walker could come back this week. I'm not sure if Fantasy Managers or the Seattle Seahawks will view that as a good thing because Zach Charbonnet has been awesome the last two weeks. Been kind of a struggle in terms of rushing efficiency, rushing success rate for Kenneth Walker. This is a guy Walker who was a clear top 12 dynasty running back. Zach Charbonnet was outside of everybody's top 24 and they keep moving

closer every week when I update my dynasty running back rankings. So I'll just go ahead and ask the question. Who would you rather have on your dynasty roster? Kenneth Walker or Zach Charbonneau? Right now I'm still leading Kenneth Walker, but like you said, that gap, it is closing each and every week. There's a reason why Seattle drafted Zach Charbonneau when they already had Kenneth Walker.

I mean, we already know that, but we also know that Seattle historically has been pretty true to their running back. And I look at this and you know, you're getting production from both these guys. Charbonneau, he's been productive in his opportunities. Weeks one through four, Kenneth Walker was dealing with some stuff there. 12.1, 17.9,9 25.7 10.4 fantasy points then in recent weeks 13 through 15 12.1 38.3 and 13.6 we had that big game in there Walker he's only played in 10 games this season but has 13 or more fantasy points in eight of those contests so

you're going to get production from either one of these backs it's just whoever Seattle wants to put in there they kind of cannibalize each other's fantasy production when they're both in the lineup. And when that happens, that it becomes Kenneth Walker and who the Seattle Seahawks trust a little bit more. And if that's the case, then I'm going to go with Kenneth Walker until we get into that contract year, because I could see Seattle moving on from Kenneth Walker knowing full well that Zach Charbonne is giving them equal or better production on a weekly basis. So, um, the one thing that I think is important to notice is on, uh, going into last week, Charbonne and Walker

each had seven rushing touchdowns and Charbonne did this on about 48 fewer carries. So Charbonne has been a little bit more efficient, but you can't knock Walker. I mean, it's so hard to go one way or the other. Whoever Seattle seems to go with, that's who you have to kind of go with. And right now that happens to be Walker. But I mean, if we're playing the long game, I could see a scenario in which they let Walker walk and Charbonneau is the guy there. Yeah, I think the key will be the next couple of weeks if Walker is active because I do still have Walker ahead of Charbonneau.

I do still expect if Walker comes back, he will lead the backfield. But if Walker comes back and they say, you know, Zach Charbonneau is the hot hand and Zach Charbonneau is the lead back with Walker in the backfield for a couple of weeks, that will change things quickly. So last question, we asked about one disappointing rookie. Let's talk about another. Is Marvin Harrison Jr. still a top 12 dynasty wide receiver? I think on talent you could make that case. For me, I have him outside my top 12 as far as wide receivers are concerned. I mean, I've got

the usual suspects that everyone's got there. Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson, Amonra St. Brown, C.D. Lamb, Malik Neighbors, Nicole Collins, Garrett Wilson, A.J. Brown, Drake London, Pooka Nakua, and then he gets interesting because I do have Brian Thomas Jr. locked in at number 11. I've got Rashid Rice, who we saw earlier in the season. He's a top five fantasy wide receiver when he's active, when he's's not suspended when he's not hurt. So I got him just ahead of Marvin Harrison, Jr. I also have moved recently Jackson Smith in Jigba into my wide receiver 13 for dynasty We'll talk about him probably a little bit later in the show But I mean right now I got Marvin Harrison, Jr. At that wide receiver 14 for dynasty That's right there with George Pickens with Lad McConkey now

The difference is obviously gonna be that offense in right there with George Pickens with lad McConkey. Now the difference is obviously going to be that offense in Pittsburgh there for George Pickens. I mean, talent wise, there's not many wide receivers more talented than George Pickens is now other areas. That's up for debate. And as far as lad McConkey is concerned, great option in PPR for dynasty. But going back to Georgia, he just hasn't been able to stay healthy. So I think that has to factor into the equation as well.

So I do have Harrison on the outside looking in as my wide receiver 14 for Dynasty. That's not a bad thing because those other 13 guys, they're pretty darn good. Yeah, I still have Harrison at nine. I'm glad you brought up JSN because he like he has in the last month done enough to justify being ranked in the top 12. He's also probably the best argument for not dropping Marvin Harrison outside of your top 12. Exactly.

A lot of people did that with JSN and may now be regretting it if they sold low. Let's take our first break and then we'll get back to four guys who changed Matt's mind this year. Get groceries delivered across the DTA from real Canadian Superstore with PC Express. Shop online for super prices and super savings. Try it today and get up to $75 in PC optimum points. Visit superstore.ca to get started. Breaking news coming in from Bet365, where every nail biting overtime win, breakaway, pick six, three-point shot,

underdog win, buzzer beater, shootout, walk-off, and absolutely every play in between is amazing. From football to basketball and hockey to baseball, whatever the moment, it's never ordinary at Bet365. Must be 19 or older, Ontario only. Please play responsibly. If you or someone you know has concerns about gambling, visit connectsontario.ca. So let's just start right where we left off because you sent in your list of four guys who changed your mind in 2024. Jackson Smith and Jigpa is on that list. You said he's now a top 12 wide receiver for you in dynasty. Did you, Did you get worried because of the bad rookie season or is he just showing you he's more elite than you realized?

For me, it was opportunity and volume. It wasn't there early on. He had a leapfrog DK Metcalf. He had a leapfrog Tyler Lockett. Well, we knew he was gonna leapfrog Tyler Lockett. It was just a matter of time. I didn't think he was gonna surpass Metcalf as quickly as he has. Coming into week 16, it's hard to argue that there's been a bigger breakout performer than

Smith and Jigba this season. Through 14 weeks, Jason, wide receiver six, produced 217.5 FASCY points while averaging 15.5 per contest. Since week number 11, though, the Seahawk receiver, he's really turned it on, averaging 18.3 FASCY points per game and registering the seventh most fasty points at the wide receiver position. Again, this is for this season, but it's giving you kind of that trajectory in which we're seeing these wide receivers when they break out. He's averaging 2.04 yards per route run, 8.95 yards per target, but the production is coming after the catch

440 of his 994 yards this season that has come after the catch. That's about 5.18 yards after the catch per reception That's more than Justin Jefferson a Monterey st. Brown Or even Jerry, Jr. By the way, it's also one of those guys who's changed my mind We could talk about that too So if you need further proof about why JSN has been moving up and how he's leapfrogged DK Metcalfe, we've seen this transition in week 15 JSN he saw a career high a career high 50% first read target share. That was a single highest single game first read target share for Seahawks receiver since 2022 and Smith and Jacob not Metcalf not Doug

Baldwin not Steve Largent became the first Seattle Seahawk receiver to record 70 or more receiving yards in six straight games which I had to like double check that like three or four times that just didn't seem right but here we are JSN he's doing more things at the receiver position than any Seahawks receiver has done and we're're seeing that on pace for a hundred receptions on pace for 1200 yards, seven touchdowns coming his way. I mean, and this week, those numbers are just going to go up because play in the Vikings. So expect another bump up in all those statistics that are moving forward.

Jerry, Judy, you mentioned has absolutely gone to the moon with Jamis Winston at quarterback. You mentioned career high for JSN. Judy just went over a thousand yards for the first time in his career. And you might think, man, it's been so far into his career. Well, he has, this is year five, but he's also still just 25.

Very young player based on his experience. Now I think, my question is like so much of this just happened with Jamis Winston, who they're talking about maybe benching now for DTR. And then what's the hope that he has James Winston next year? Is this like the ultimate sell high moment for Jerry Judy? You say he changed your mind how much? I mean, for one, if you could sell I think you should be

looking at selling anyone any chance you get, right? If there's value there, you should look at it. I mean, if someone's gonna offer you a first round pick for Jerry Judy, I think you have to take it. But when we take a look at it, I had him, I think around 143 coming into the season on my overall, my big board there. He's jumped up to 65 and he's continuing to climb. Winston's basically resurrected his career. You talk about that since taking over under sender Winston, he's averaging 21.1 fantasy points per game. He's getting 10 targets a game you know Winston loves to chuck it up there Winston's throwing the

ball 43 times DTR is not gonna throw the ball 40 times that's not gonna happen I mean what is DTR's average depth of target in his career like 3.6 stop it Cleveland you already know what you have in Dorian Thompson Robbins whatever you know what you have in him stop it stop Robbins, whatever, you know what you have in him. Stop it. Stop with the foolishness. Just let these guys cook. Cause basically Jerry Judy has turned into the 2013 version of Josh Gordon right before our very eyes. 786 receiving yards of those thousand you mentioned have come since week number eight. Only Jamar chases 793 is more.

And he's getting the targets. 38% target share there. Um, 28, uh, 23% target share every target share number that we could see. Jerry Judy has been getting. If this can continue and we've seen the talent, we knew the talent was there coming out of Alabama, we knew he was a talented guy, never saw it in Denver. Uh, never saw it anywhere else. Now he's starting to show up because Winston's throwing him the ball.

And this is what he's doing. Now, if somehow Jerry Judy is somewhere else next season or they bring another quarterback, I mean, Sean Watson is just a vibe killer, isn't he? He's just a total buzzkill under center. I think this is one of those opportunities. I love Jerry Judy's talent, but if I can cash in on him right now, I think I would. I think I really would.

So Michael Pittman was a guy you definitely had ahead of Jerry Judy coming into this year. He's also a guy who has changed your mind. I'm assuming not for the better. Is this a Michael Pittman discussion or an Anthony Richardson discussion? This is a both discussion. I mean, Anthony Richardson went from like 45 on my big board down to 129 and that number continues to drop each and every single week and and I mean Pittman is a guy I also was high on I think he I had him at 28 now he's down about 67 so we're seeing both these

guys kind of trajectory downward I think it is they're one in the same I mean since we gave Pittman has just one fantasy finish of over 10 fantasy points, and he's averaging just 8.2 fantasy points per game over that period, and 49 fantasy points, that lands him about wide receiver 70. Wide receiver 70! That's not even like a top six wide receiver on your own roster type numbers there.

He's getting the targets, 23% target share, but 72.5% of those targets, they've been deemed un-catchable, right? He's only the targets 23% target share, but 72 and a half percent of those targets, they've been deemed uncatchable. Right? He's only got to catch like it's just it's more I think it's more of an Anthony Richardson issue here than it is a Michael Pittman Jr. We know he can produce we've seen him produce in the past. We've also know that Anthony Richardson is not good on those intermediate throws. We know he can yolo it We've seen alex pierce hit those big things. We know josh down's value remains the same there too because he's good at hitting those underneath those short passes Where pitman succeeds is where anthony richardson fails as long as richardson is there these two are going to repel each other like water

And oil, I mean they they just can't co-exist co-exist together. It's just Catchable target rate on plays where at least one step of separation is created. Pittman's at 80%. He's getting separation. The target is just completely missing him, right? So I think this is more of an Anthony Richardson than a Michael Pittman,

but as long as Richardson's there, it's a Pittman problem too. Last guy on your list of guys who changed your mind. Let's go back to the positive. Bo Nix. And I'll just say from my perspective, he was, I think he was my QB 25 when he was drafted. He was my QB 19 by the time we got to like week one.

He is currently my QB 15. So almost a top 12 quarterback. It's been good. Or do you have hopes that if they add another weapon, it can be great? Or is he just gonna live in that high end QB two range? Do you remember the movie Tommy Boy, where David Spade's character's picking up

Chris Farley's character and he's like, lots of guys go to college for seven years and David Spade goes, yeah, they're calling the doctor. And he's like, lots of guys go to college for seven years and David Pickles, yeah, they're called a doctor. Well, guess what? Bo Nicks, I guess you can call him a surgeon, so to speak, because he's been tearing things apart here offensively since like week number five. I had like you probably about wide quarterback 27, headed the draft process there, didn't really like his game, um, so to speak, then I kind

of moved him up through the season I got him at QB 13 right now in my dynasty rankings just on that outside looking in right there right behind Caleb Williams where if Williams falters I could see myself flipping those too I thought he was more of a system quarterback I thought Oregon kind of hit his flaws very well the short passes and it kind of it kind of took away what he did bad and kind of made it disappear. So I thought when he got to the NFL, those warts would show themselves again.

But again, back in August, one QB league, he came in at 187 on my big board and he's been climbing up each and every single week since then. I think last time I checked, he moved up to 84 on that. And you know what? Okay, he had his rookie moment last week those three interceptions But he's still averaging 20 and a half Fassie points since week number five. That's QB seven

That's just one spot ahead or one spot behind of Jaden Daniels right now since week number five as far as Fassie productions concerned And here's the crazy thing as a rookie not even a big-time hyped rookie Sean Payton is letting this guy as a rookie, not even a big time hyped rookie, Sean Payton is letting this guy rip the ball. 487 passing attempts. That is fifth in the National Football League right now. The Denver Broncos, they've realized they don't have a run game at all, so they're letting this kid throw the ball around.

20 touchdowns, that's 20th in the league. That's two fewer than Patrick Mahomes. Seven interceptions, three of them came last week. He's also had 25 draw passes. That is the second most. He's doing this with Troy Franklin, Marvin Mims. If he gets some help, if the Denver Broncos go out there and get another wide receiver to kind of compliment what they have in Cortland Sutton, too bad they didn't have a guy named Jerry Jr. or anything, they'd be in a pretty good shot. And Bo Nix, I could see him climbing up with just a little bit more help. If he had the same type of options and weapons on the offensive side of the ball

as Caleb Williams, I don't even know if we'd be having this conversation. I think he'd be easily ahead of Caleb Williams at this point. We'll go four guys here real quick that changed my mind in 2024 and all of it. I'll get a short thought from you, each of these guys. Sam Darnold was a guy that as of January of 2024 had pretty much left for dead, like most of the NFL. Even when the Vikings signed him, I thought, well, JJ McCarthy is going to be the starter of the McCarthy injury. Darnold's played better than anyone could have ever expected. He was my QB 43 back in January. He's my QB 24 right now. I do think because there's still a pretty good question about whether the Vikings

want to start Sam Darnold again next year, whether it's going to just be handed over to JJ McCarthy if he's healthy. Is Sam Darnold even an NFL starter if he's not in this system with two of the best wide receivers in the NFL? What is your level of confidence that Sam Darnold, I'll say A is an NFL starter for 16 games next year, 15 games next year, and B matters in fantasy football. He is such a tough one to call right now because I do believe that he is a starter. He's proven it. His numbers and statistics and everything with this Vikings team. Again, that's key here, this Vikings team. I just see the Vikings transitioning to JJ McCarthy. You don't spend that high of a draft pick not to give the kid a shot at some point.

I'm sure they're gonna go through the off season, call it an open competition, and all the fun stuff that we hear every single year. But I think Vikings brass wants to see McCarthy on the field sooner rather than later. Now I think it might depend on how far Sam Donald could push his Vikings team in the playoffs And if that's the case it might become a little bit more interesting here like a Nick Foles Carson Wentz type scenario Though he saw in full in Philadelphia a few years back, but for me, I want to believe in Sam Donald

I love the story I love the fact that he was thrown on the scrap heap only to come back and absolutely ball out top 10 fantasy quarterback. But at the end of the day, it's a what have you done for me lately type business. It's a it's a money motivated business. And I can't see them paying Sam Donald again when they have JJ McCarthy sitting there on the bench ready to go. So I will. I'll just eat this one. Sayquon Barkley, yes, he changed my mind. I was wrong. I was an idiot about the old running backs changing teams. Doesn't make me feel any better that Saquon Barkley and Derek Henry, two of the guys I

was most wrong about this year, just completely face planted in the first round of the fantasy playoffs. Hopefully they turn things back on in the semi-finals, but Barkley was my RB 20 back in January. He's up to RB 8 currently. I guess my question is less about Barkley and more about philosophically. We all had a pretty strong agreement within the industry. If you had a 27, 28 year old running back and you were in a Dynasty Fantasy Football League, you maybe wanted to use them for the three weeks of the playoffs, but otherwise you would like to not carry that guy on your roster because they could plummet in value at any moment. the dynasty fantasy football league. You maybe wanted to use them for the three weeks of the playoffs, but

otherwise you would like to not carry that guy on your roster because they could plummet in value at any moment. Did Barkley do enough not just to prove me wrong this year, but to make you feel no concern about

him going into next year with his age and workload. Actually, I'm going to pull Christian McCaffrey's numbers to the forefront, your honor, because say, quote Barkley is getting a very heavy workload and if the Eagles are making a deep playoff run, that workload is going to increase. I'm not going to say he's going to have a Achilles tendonitis in both his legs or

whatnot and like Christian McCaffrey, but I think there is a concern on workload. We've seen this one backs even young backs if they're getting a lot of work throughout the season it does affect them the following season. I mean there's data out there that kind of proves this. I do like Barkley. I've still got him as a top. I think I got him at RB6, RB5 right now in my dynasty ranking so I still believe in him because I think he's still he's still that guy but I'm worried about him coming in next year. I think people who go out there and make him their number one choice and there will be people that make

him the number one choice and redraft. I think they're in for a Christian McCaffrey-esque mistake because the workload has been too much on him. I just can't see it. Okay. So the answer is no. This was a one year blip. We're not changing. That's not changing his philosophy on the older run. I think that's the right way to play. It's just hard to do it in the face of how good he's been. Right. They proved us wrong too. Derek Henry, all these quarter, all these running backs that nobody wanted are having the best years of their careers so to speak. A wide receiver who changed my mind, Khalil Shakir really just kind of thought he

was just a guy. Um he was outside of my top sixty wide receivers back in January. He is inside of my top forty wide receivers now but also I kind of wonder is is he still kind of just a guy? Yes, he's caught 81% of his targets. That's insane. It's awesome. It's very good for real football. He's also currently wide receiver 30 on a per game basis in a season which he's

caught 81% of his targets. Are we seeing the ceiling for Khalil Shakir right now or is there room for growth still? I think there's gonna there room for growth still? I think there's gonna be room for growth. I mean, Josh Allen continues to grow. They've never really had a, I mean, since it got rid of Stefan Diggs, it's never been Khalil Shakir's time.

I mean, they went out there and they got a Mari Cooper, by the way, who's done absolutely nothing since becoming a Buffalo Bill. But I'm right with you. I got Shakir as, actually, I'm probably higher than you on Shakir. I got him as wide receiver 31 in dynasty. I look at it. Who would you rather? Would you rather him or Devonta Smith? I mean,

would you rather him or Jayden Reed? I mean, Jayden Reed's got more questions than answers right now. And I'd probably make an argument that I'd rather have Khalil Shakira right now over Jayden Reed. Um, we know the talents there. We know the opportunity is going to be there. We know this offense is going to be good. It's just can the volume head hit in his direction? That's the biggest question mark when we talk about Shakir.

So I do like him. I do have him probably higher than the consensus. Just another young wide receiver growing with a young quarterback in an elite offense. Opportunity is going to be there. Last guy that changed my mind in 2024, at least that we're going to talk about today. John O. Smith. Mike McDaniel just completely altered his offense coming into this year. They took away the big plays. They went to the short area targets. Smith has been the biggest beneficiary. I think he's actually been the best dolphin in fantasy since Tua came back.

He's certainly the most targeted dolphin since Tua came back. He's certainly the most targeted dolphin since Tua came back. Up to a career high 70 catches, a career high 740 receiving yards, may even get those career high touchdowns. He's got six now, he had eight back in 2020. John O'Smith is a 29 year old tight end who is certainly worth the price for 2024. Does this carry over to next year?

We just see something completely different from Mike McDaniel again in 2025. I think the best thing I've seen on social media was that meme where the guy's like walking with his girlfriend and he took looks back at this other girl. Well, they had Tyreek Hill and Jayden Waddle as the one. And he was looking back at Jonah Smith and Devonna Smith. I don't know about top five production, but I think top 12 is more than reasonable to expect in the tight end position

because you got your guys like Brock Bowers, Trey McBride. They're going to be the young bowls. They're kind of leading the way, but then it's George Kittle and aging asset. Travis Kelsey, they're going to be the young bowlers. They're going to be the young bowlers. They're going to be the young bowlers. They're going to be the young bowlers. They're going to be the young bowlers. They're going to berey McBride, they're going to be the young bulls that are kind of leading the way but then it's George Kittle an aging asset, Travis Kelsey an aging asset, Mark Andrews is starting to get up there, Kate Otten hasn't done nothing since Mike Evans' return so you take a look at these other tight ends

that are kind of in that conversation, Sam Laporte is starting to come back on after being who knows what he did the first half of the season We know that the position is a tight tight end is a wasteland for fantasy And I do believe that Jonah Smith right now is making the case that he's a top 12 Tight end at this point at least in the next two to three year window That will do it for the guys who changed our minds in 2024 take a short break And we're gonna talk about some guys who's going to change everybody's mind in 2025. If you have suggestions in the chat, I will take those now. We'll talk to you in just a minute.

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programs and policies apply details at Fizz.ca. Guys who will change everyone's mind in 2025. And I may have cheated just a little bit here because this guy started changing some minds for the better in the last month. But I have really liked what I have seen from Bryce Young. It seemed like just like getting Deontay Johnson off the roster and getting Jonathan Mingo off the roster. And let's just throw to our better wide receivers.

It's really been a great thing for Bryce Young, but you had a guy, one of his teammates, Jalen Coker, who just came back and had a fantastic game in week 15. These two, can they grow together next year into starting fantasy options? Or do you think the Panthers go get a true number one and Coker is kind of a flash in the pan?

I think Carolina has to go get a true number one. I don is kind of a flash in the pan. I think Carolina has to go get a true number one on that. I don't think Coker is a number one. I think he's a very solid number two, but we'd look at this Carolina thing right now and there's no alpha dog in that house, right? There's Adam Thielen. I mean, Xavier Lagg. These guys aren't alphas. They really aren't. So Coker is going to have himself a role and we just watched him. The one concern I had about him coming out of college and I had it in my sleeper article as a guy to watch all season long He does a little concern about his speed

Well, guess what when you run twenty one point eight seven miles per hour on an eighty three yard touchdown pass I think that's plenty fast enough. I don't think people could question that speed 22% target share team high 34% arch share here in his last game. I mean, 87% snap rate. So now he's getting healthy, getting back in the lineup. We're starting to see that rookie breakout. And by the way, this is what I'm looking at for. Guys, my guys, first off, I flag planted on a lunch,

these guys early in the season, didn't look very good for me. But now we're getting that late season rookie breakout that we see every single year. This happens every single year. But I look at Coker here and I like him. I really like him. I think he, if Breeze Young is going to have success beyond this year, Coker's that guy that's going to help them get their big

presence down the red zone. Guy who can go up and get the ball. Maybe the dude's got like a 42 and a half inch vertical size wingspan. He's a quarterback's best friend if he's used properly. Rush young has averaged more yards per attempt throwing to Coker than any other wide receiver this season. So I do like that combination. I still think there's a possibility that Bryce Young could be a franchise

quarterback in the NFL. And so if you can acquire him at a discount this off season, I would be doing that. You had another rookie wide receiver on your list. And that was Jalen McMillan. And again, last two games, he started to pop. You like those late season breakouts. Do we need Chris Godwin or Mike Evans to go away next year for McMillan to matter? I mean, it's going to help if one of them was gone. Let's be honest here and preferably if it was Chris Godwin gone

But I don't see that happening. Um This is a bit of a vindication for me. If you follow me on social media You know that I said that Jalen Macmillan could be this year's puka. Nakua, right coming out of the draft I didn't mean necessarily that kind of production that Puka had as a rookie but I was talking about that underrated rookie wide receiver that nobody wanted to talk about. Everyone was talking about his teammates Roma Dunze they were talking about Jaylen Polk. No one was talking about Jaylen McMillan even though he was just as good in my opinion as those other two. So that may have got a little bit of a following there on social

media and some backlash back and forth but if you take a look at what McGillin's done here in the last two weeks the two highest target shares of the season 25% 23% that's equated 21.9 fantasy points 18 and a half fantasy points three touchdowns I mean he's close to 150 yards I mean this is a late season break and if you take a look at the numbers and this is what I like the most is you take do the numbers support The fantasy production because sometimes Rashad Bateman take a look at his numbers huge fantasy numbers last couple weeks But it's been a huge boom on it, right? last two weeks

77% route participation 11.9 a dot 143 air yards a thirty point three percent air yard share 11.9 a dot 143 air yards a 30.3 percent air yard share 21.4 percent target share 24.3 percent first read target share 2.68 yards per roadrun 14.89 yards per reception all those numbers are showing me consistency across the board if he's being consistent in those numbers and he's getting the fantasy production then you're led to believe that this is something that can continue beyond this two, three week sample size. So yeah, Jaylen McMillan's one of those guys I want to double down on here heading into 2025. And I do think even as a third wide receiver

in this bucking years offense, Baker Mayfield loves to spread that ball around. He's going to get his fantasy production. I mean, Baker's now one of two quarterbacks along with Jared Goff who's thrown 60 touchdown passes since the start of last season. That's right.field and golf the only two that have done that so there's no reason not to believe that Jaylen McMillan cannot be a force for fantasy maybe a flex option weekly next season. We had a good question from the chat Ben says how about Kincaid chance of a breakout next year and he was actually on my list and I don't know if anybody's giving up on Dalton Kincaid yet. I would understand if you wanted to. He's been flat out bad in terms of producing fantasy points in the NFL, but the target per route run still looks good. He still, he got, came back last week, moved right back into that prominent

position within this offense, actually tied Khalil Shakir in terms of target share last week. So yes, Kincaid is still a top five dynasty tight end for me. I would still be buying in the offseason. I would expect the best season of his career next year and he could do that and like it's that's the sad thing about what we've had so far is he could give us a career year next year and still not be a real difference maker at the tight end position because it's been pretty bad. But I think that we we've had too many really good young rookie tight ends, second year tight ends, and it spoiled us. We're getting to remember this is still often a slow developing position and we shouldn't give up on a good prospect even after two years. So yes, Dalton Kincade on my list of players who will

change people's minds. One other I had, Quentin Johnston. Seems like, and he's a guy who's got some fantasy production and the underlying number of maybe don't necessarily support it, but I just like the fact that he's had quite a bit of positive. And so I do think going into that third year, it used to be the year three wide receiver breakout was just the expectation. And a guy like Quinton Johnston, who went from terrible as a rookie to okay in year two, we'd all be on, he'd be on everybody's breakout list. But again, we've had so many first and second year

wide receivers breakout that that's not okay anymore. If you're not great, the first two years, we just give up on you. I would not give up on Quinton Johnston. You had Rashid Shahid on your list Matt. Man looked fantastic at the beginning of this year. I don't have any idea what to expect from this Saints franchise moving forward is Shahid someone that you would give up more than a third round pick for? the Saints franchise moving someone that you would give

I mean, I think in the thir kind of tossing the dice. you can count on now. There Football League than the N I mean, top to bottom this the worst roster in the National Football League than the New Orleans Saints. I mean, top to bottom, this roster, it's not good. So I have to kind of take a look at the numbers and I do know that one thing in fantasy in general, it is a what have you done for me lately and if you haven't done anything maybe because of injury or whatnot,

people tend to forget you and just forget how good you happen to be. Before landing on the IR, he kind of said he was doing pretty good. 14.3 fantasy points per game. Those wide receiver 17 through the first five weeks of the season, his 338 receiving yards that rank 13th. He had three touchdowns, averaged up the target was 17.7 and 82% real participation. 34 targets in five games with a 32.2% first read target share. He's good enough for definitely for a third round pick. And I think he's one of those guys that I think next year at 20 Jerry Judy, 25 years old. We talked about that a guy that we think is like ancient at this point.

He's only 25. Well, Rashid Shahid, he's only 26. And I would argue that when him and Chris Alavi were both in the lineup at the same time, both healthy, all things being equal, Shahid was the better receiver of the two. So if you are looking for a cheaper option to the Chris Alavi conversation, then Shahid has to be that guy because you're going to get him much later for a third round pick where you're probably paying a first round to acquire the services of Chris Alavi So why would I pay a first rounder when I could pay a third to get the guy who's giving me the same? Production moving forward so that's just kind of way I look at that The numbers they support everything here right now that she's Shahid has the ability to have success at the next level Just don't expect him to be a wide receiver one

But I think he could give you back end wide receiver to production for the next three, four years. I hate to end the show on a down note, but Brad Stainbrook of 24 seven sports does tweet out about 10 minutes ago. The Browns are making a change at quarterback Dorian Thompson Robinson will start for Cleveland against the Cincinnati Bengals. Thompson Robinson will start for Cleveland against the Cincinnati Bengals. I mean, the chat is not pleased about this. Runs every Brown is the first comment. And I don't want to overreact to this, but I think that that comment is probably accurate. Um, Dorian Thompson Robinson is a well below average NFL quarterback

from what we've seen so far. Jameis Winston is maybe also, when it comes to winning football games, but when it comes to producing fantasy points, Jameis Winston is pretty elite. We've seen Thompson Robinson make three starts in his NFL career. 2023, he threw 36 passes against the Baltimore Ravens for 121 yards, zero touchdowns, three interceptions. Eight weeks later, he faced the Pittsburgh Steelers. He threw 43 passes against the Steelers, faced the Pittsburgh Steelers, he threw 43 passes against the Steelers, 165 yards,

zero touchdowns, one interception, and then against the Broncos, 14 of 29, 134, a touchdown, no interceptions in that game. Runs the ball three to five times per game and each of those starts. Can you even start Jerry Judy? I mean, if he's going to throw the ball 43 times, Jerry Judy might have a Julian Edelman type number 10 catches for 39 yards. So you're going to get your 13 Fassie points right there. But I mean, it's hard. I mean, I don't know if you can bench Jerry

Judy, but I can't put him as my wide receiver one or wide receiver two. There's just the upsides been tapped. I mean, it's definitely limited there. Maybe you can go as the wide receiver three, maybe as a flex option, depending on what you have on your roster. But yeah, it's a killer. I mean, the only guy who might benefit from this is maybe Jerome Ford catching screen passes. I mean, that might be the only guy who benefits from this Browns move here right now. I don't know why the Browns are doing it. We know what you said, those numbers,

40 attempts, 35 plus attempts, 118 yards, 140. I mean, it's, I don't know how the Browns are expecting to do anything here. They, they're not bad enough to tank. They're too far back to tank. They've won too many games to tank and they're definitely not good enough to win. So I don't know why you don't even know what you have in DTR. You already know this. So why are we putting them out there? Yeah. Well, it seems like maybe they think they don't yet. I guess they're trying to find out if he can even be their backup quarterback. Maybe they're just tired of watching Jamis throw interceptions. I would guess his act can get a little bit old when he's not playing well and

things aren't going well. Thompson Robinson has thrown 34 passes this season for exactly 100 yards. Just an absolute disaster if you're planning on starting a Cleveland Browns. And I guess last question because this guy was available on redraft waiver wires and probably a few dynasty waiver wires. Jerome Ford was going to be the top waiver wire ad of the week. Does this downgrade him in your mind as well? No, I think Jerome Ford's going to be fine for the most part here. I think he still has that league winning upside based on volume.

There's no one else there in that Brown's backfield is going to take away. Nick Chubb, he's done probably for the season there with that broken foot, uh, short pass game Brown Ford's that excellent pass catcher. He's going to get some opportunities there. So I think Ford's value is going to still be there. I think you still have yourself a RB three with RB two upside there from for a guy you could put in your lineup there that has some upside compared to some other options available right now.

So I just looking at these where these 34 passes have gone this year because it might be instructive. That's that's a pretty close to a normal game for an average quarterback. Seven of them went to Cedric Tillman. He had five for 41. Six of them went to David and Joku. He had three for 20.

Six of them went to Jerry Judy. He had two for 13. One of them went to David Njoku. He had three for 20. Six of them went to Jerry Judy. He had two for 13. One of them went to Jerome Ford. It went for negative six yards. So yeah, there you go. Merry Christmas to all. Jamis is out. The Bengals, DST probably moves to number one. That's going to do it for this episode of Fantasy Football Today. Dynasty Matt, thank you as always for coming on. the game. The FST probably week, if you've looked at the calendar, Tuesday is Christmas Eve. So we're going to push the show back to Friday.

It would be a Friday Fantasy Football Today dynasty. Maybe something a little bit special for you guys. We will definitely continue the one episode through per week throughout the season. After I take a little break in January, we'll be back up to two episodes per week in the off season. Really appreciate all of you who are listening, all of you who have subscribed. If you have a chance to go over to Spotify, click the follow button, give us a five-star review. That

would be very much appreciated. We will talk to you next Friday.