Fantasy Football Today - Everyone is a Bust (Part One)! And Carson Wentz Reaction (08/02 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: August 2, 2021

Looking at the Top 8 picks in average draft position, who is the biggest bust risk? Is it Jonathan Taylor now that Carson Wentz has a foot injury? We'll tell you what RBs have to do to thrive on bad offenses and if Taylor can do it. Then we've got news and notes (4:40) including more reaction to the Wentz injury and what to expect from the Lions backfield (11:15) ... Everyone is a bust! We make bust cases for the very best players in Fantasy starting with Christian McCaffrey (14:30) and Dalvin Cook (18:30). Will the offenses hold them back? Things get more interesting as we discuss Alvin Kamara (21:30) who will likely be on the worst offensive team of his career and Derrick Henry (28:00) who has shouldered a lot of work in the last two seasons ... More bust cases for studs including Ezekiel Elliott (33:25), Jonathan Taylor, Austin Ekeler (38:10) and Travis Kelce (41:00). We're already concerned about Ekeler's goal line opportunities, and could CEH make Kelce a bust?. Later we react to the DeVonta Smith news (45:00) ... Email us at [e-mail] 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Beck. Everybody's a bust. Today we look at the top eight players in ADP and tell you why they suck, basically. Now we're going to make a bust case. We're going to have a little fun with it here. We're going to do it for Christian McCaffrey.

He's got Sam Darnold. Sam Darnold's never given us any good fantasy running backs. Alvin Kamara, we don't know who his quarterback's going to be. Derrick Henry, well, they're going to throw the ball all over the place. They have Julio Jones now, so we'll go through all of the scenarios, as likely or as unlikely as they are. It's Monday morning. What's up, everybody? We got football coming up this week. We got the Hall of Fame game on August 5th. I'm Adam Azer. I got Jamie Eisenberg and Dave Richard here.

Guys, my first question to you. Here's the top eight in ADP as of July 1st on NFC. It's the familiar names. McCaffrey, Cook, Kamara, Henry, Zeke, Jonathan Taylor. We have to talk about the Carson Wentz injury for sure. Austin Eckler and Travis Kelsey. Jamie, you got the first word. Who has the most bust potential in that group?

McCaffrey, Cook, Kamara, Henry, Zeke, Taylor, Eckler, Kelsey. I guess taking away the fact that McCaffrey does because he's the first pick. So there's only one way to go but down. It's Taylor now. You know, I mean, the offense could be an absolute disaster. And, you know, you're bringing back Marlon Mack and Ryan Kelly's now hurt too. You know, so the offensive line Marlon Mack and Ryan Kelly's now hurt too. You know, so the offensive line, which is such a huge strength, is that going to be the same, you know, even with the change that left tackle as well?

So, you know, it's a little daunting right now to say that Jonathan Taylor has the same ceiling that he had a week ago. You know, I was excited for him. I think a lot of people were, but now you got to be a little bit concerned. Got to see what they do at quarterback. You've got to make sure that they replace Carson Wentz if they need to replace Carson Wentz with somebody who's at least decent. I don't think Brett

Hundley's the answer, but I do recognize that last year it was Phillip Rivers who was the quarterback for the Colts, and it was old Phillip Rivers, and he wasn't that great, and Jonathan Taylor finished the year with a bang. He was actually pretty good. He was great at the end of the year.

Oh, he wasn't great. And it was when Taylor was playing great, too. He was good. Look, I think he's probably the easiest case you can make for a bust among the top eight, so I agree in that aspect. But I can't see him being a 2,000 total yard back without Carson Wentz there, but I could still see him being a really good fantasy running back.

Yeah. Is he a top eight pick though? And we don't know how long Carson Wentz is out. They're going to try to avoid surgery. I mean, there's a possibility that he's ready at least early in the season. If everything goes, when does that phrase ever worked out?

Well, right. Yeah. And that's a good thing about what the saints are talking. Like Sean Payton is complaining that Michael Thomas should have had surgery sooner. Tyler Glasnow, for example, for the raise.

Avoiding surgery, now he has to have Tommy Johnson. It just seems like every time you hear this, you're going to wait to see if he can avoid surgery. It typically ends up poorly. I'm sure there are examples the other way, but it just doesn't seem like it. We are going to evaluate Jonathan Taylor as if Wentz is going to miss some time. So is he still a top eight pick in your mind?

As of now, yes. Same. Really? Okay. Yeah, I mean, I've been trying to study sort of the importance of quality of offense to where you finish. And what I've actually found is that over the last few seasons, it's been a lot more important for wide receivers than running backs.

And that surprised me a little bit. But for running backs, there have actually been four running backs in the last three seasons who have finished top five in PPR on an offense that ranked 20th or worse in scoring, which right now I would probably expect from the Colts. But the problem is all of them had a lot of catches.

The fewest was Montgomery last year. He had 54 catches. He had Eckler do it with 92 catches. He had Zeke with 77. He had McCaffrey with 116. So I think if you're on a bad offense, you might need a role in the passing game. But we'll talk about that more when we get into,

well, I guess we'll get into it now because Carson Wentz is the big news. And we'll get into all eight of these players. I got a nice stat for you on Christian McCaffrey. If the Panthers are good this year and they have a nice little young defense, maybe they can make some strides. If they're good this year,

is that bad for Christian McCaffrey? I'll make the case. All right, your news and notes, guys. So with the Wentz injury, why? Let me follow up on this, then we'll talk about the receivers and if you're still drafting Hilton and Pittman and Campbell. Why is Jonathan Taylor still a top eight pick, Jamie? If you said, you know, they're putting off surgery, we kind of joke that never ends well. Why are you still confident in him as a top eight pick? Well, I mean, again, you know, I, I think I gave you the flaws, uh, you know, and, and this is the hope is Ryan Kelly's healthy that, you know, the left tackle position is just as good, which, you know, based on, you know, Fisher stepping in there, hopefully he's fine. It's a belief in Taylor. It's a belief in Frank Reich. It's a belief in the offensive line.

Even with Wentz, this is going to be a run first team. And so look, Carson Wentz, I think we're all hopeful that he was going to be better going from with the disaster in Philadelphia last year to a better set of circumstances for him with that offensive line, with the healthy set of receivers, and with a run game to support him. But will Jacob Eason maybe be just as good as Carson Wentz? I think most people would say no, but you never know. Will maybe a trade for a Nick Foles or a Gardner Minshew make things better for the Colts? Those are things that you're hearing. That could certainly help things out for Jonathan Taylor.

He was already a little bit of a sliding scale for me because i like ezekiel better than him i like aaron jones better than him so it was easy to put him behind those guys already uh the question becomes is a healthy saquon barkley better than jonathan taylor yes but we just don't know barkley's health yet so that's where you start to get i think into the the mix for for. But I'd still take him toward the back end of the first round behind Travis Kelsey and those running backs. It's just a matter of your comfort level and John Taylor. And again, we're still in the early phases of this Wentz injury, not knowing what they're going to do at their quarterback spot. Yeah. If they have a bad quarterback, Dave, if it's, if let's just say Wentz is out for

half a season, he's going to start on IR or he's going to start on the PUP or whatever. And they're going to roll with Eason for the first half of the year? Or Foles, you know. Which is probably a big upgrade over Eason, probably. Barkley is also on a team

that has quarterback issues. A much worse offensive line than the Colts. So where would you go? Jamie said he'd take Barkley, if healthy, over Taylor. What about you? Let's say Barkley's healthy for week one. Who would you go with? If Barkley gets off the pup list soon

and he's available for week one, I would take Barkley over Taylor at this point, not knowing exactly when Carson Wentz was going to be back. It just makes sense that Barkley would be in a better position. And yeah, his offensive line stinks, but I would say that the Giants' receiving core, when that is healthy, is better than what the Colts

have. Dare I say it, but the Giants' passing game is actually better than somebody else's passing game. It would be better than the Colts' passing game without Carson Wentz there or with Jacob Eason there, I should say. If it's Nick Foles or if it's Gardner Minshew, then I reserve the right to change my mind. But I think that would help. I think it all helps Saquon. And I understand that he will probably not get the

workload that we expect to begin the season, but he will eventually. And that's what matters is that the majority of the season you will get in theory, provided that he's healthy, vintage Saquon. And that means that he could give you a pace maybe from week four on of 110, 115 total yards per game, four or five catches, touchdowns on the reg. I think he'd be fine. And you would take that over Taylor with the questions at quarterback right now. But the one thing that stands out to me is that Taylor's healthy. His offensive line's fine. This is reality right now, and even if it's Carson Wentz,

it's not like we were looking at Carson Wentz and saying, well, this is going to be what changes the Indianapolis offense and makes them amazing. He would provide them a presence in the passing game, but I think Foles or Minshew or basically anybody other than Jacob Eason or Brett Hundley could do that, And that'll make Jonathan Taylor. Okay. So I'm still, I'm still cool with taking Jonathan Taylor as a top eight pick. I currently have him fifth right now in full PPR. I could see myself changing that, moving them down a little bit, but I think that he's still going to be worth that

first round nod. Well, he is currently in average draft position. The only Colt in the top 100 after the top 100, not surprising Pittman, you got Hines, you got Hilton, who go within the next 35 picks or so. And then Campbell, Mo'Ally, Cox, whatever. Deeper leagues. But, Jamie, are you basically not drafting Colts wide receivers right now? If you were drafting today? Well, I mean, I wouldn't say that.

I think you still draft pitman and hilton if they continue to slide but you know the excitement over michael pitman is probably going to be dampened a little bit the excitement over maybe paris campbell as a late round pick is going to be dampened a little bit um hilton was kind of a guy i think that people were tending to avoid but just oh he's still on the board i'll'll take T.Y. Hilton. So I don't think it's a total stay away from scenario. But again, I'll go back to this. We're hopeful for Carson Wentz, a healthy Carson Wentz. There's no guarantee that Carson Wentz in his current state would be,

healthy Carson Wentz, would be better than the potential of what Jacob Eason could be or what Nick Foles or Gardner Minshew or whoever they bring in could be as well. It was all just based on, oh, he's magically fixed, and we still need to see it first. Yeah, and if he comes back, he's going to be on a new team with no training camp. He's going to miss valuable preseason games, and you don't know what he's going to be like

hopefully when he comes back. He'll probably need surgery eventually probably need to do some more eventually let's do some more news and notes um Dak Prescott not worried about his shoulder I guess the fantasy community not super worried right now and then this I thought was interesting little presumptuous Mike McCarthy says he'll uh he'll keep the playoffs in mind when it comes to Ezekiel Elliott's workload so we will actually discuss that when we talk about Ezekiel Elliott's workload. So we will actually discuss that when we talk about Ezekiel Elliott as a bust. Sammy Watkins has been the best wide receiver in Baltimore camp, Dave.

Has anything changed with you when you see that report? No. Yeah, I think that that was just... I don't know. Maybe it's just because he's got the most experience and he's looking spry right now. We know the track record with Sammy Watkins. He'll come up with an injury eventually.

I would imagine that if it's not Marquise Brown, it'll be Rashad Bateman that ends up passing him up in terms of targets and production. There's, there's no real appeal to Sammy Watkins, in my opinion. Jamie, what did you make of Dan Campbell?

New lions head coach talking about how he's going to use both the Andre Swift and Jamal Williams. I think he said hot hand, which is weird. But nah, I guess it's not weird. What did you think about his comments about the Detroit running backs? He also said that

he's hoping it's a Kamara Mark Ingram situation. He was with New Orleans on that staff. So with Jamal Williams being more Mark Ingram, situation. He was with New Orleans on that staff. With Jamal Williams being more Mark Ingram, Latavius Murray. That would be very encouraging if you think that DeAndre Swift can be a poor man's

Alvin Kamara. I think you draft them the same way we've been saying. Swift is a late round two or early round three pick, depending on format. Williams is a very good late round flyer you know depending on where you're going to try and take him he's still got lottery ticket appeal um he's going to play as well so it's not just a guy you have to wait to sit on the bench because

as you alluded to adam they're going to use him but swift is the better talent you know it's it'd be a shame if the lions took him off the field for extended stretches so i like jamal williams you know based on his cost but you know if if you're playing to win, you're hoping that Swift is going to hit. Sir, if there's any other big news here, we've seen reports about a good connection between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Terry McLaurin, good connection between Kirk Cousins and Irv Smith, Kadri Olesen working as the number two running back

for the Falcons. Jared Goff having a good connection with TJ Hawkinson. Yeah, a lot of Hawkinson buzz. Is Ollison a guy? Let me check his average draft position. Should he be in the mix when you see A.J. Dillon, Tony Pollard, Alexander Madison come off? He's a little bit different, Ollison.

At the end. He's at the end of that list. You want to take him with one of your last three picks? That's fine. Okay. Well, he's going 275th. All right. That's one of your last...

Where's Javion Hawkins going? I'm going to guess higher. 230th. Is that a mistake? Should Allison be going ahead of Hawkins? I would take Allison ahead of Hawkins.

Yeah, I would too. I'm just curious, just based on Hawkins got all the buzz following the NFL draft. The Saints signed Devontae Freeman. The Giants signed Alfred Morris. The Browns signed Nick Chubb to a three-year extension with $20 million guaranteed. And let's get into it here. All right, first of all, this is a big time of year.

It's August. It's fantasy football time. It's draft football time. It's draft prep season. You can watch fantasy football today, not this show, but the, not the podcast,

but the hour-long show, Monday through Friday, basically for the rest of the year on CBS Sports HQ, noon Eastern. Go to CBSSports.com. Go to the CBS Sports mobile app. Check it out on your Roku, your Fire TV, your Apple TV. It starts today, the first of many.

We are very excited for HQ and for fantasy football today. So fire it up. And watch HQ all the time. Because if you were like me, you're a little sleepy. You're up late watching that U.S. soccer game. The men's. I didn't get to watch the unfortunate women's game. But go USA.

What a freaking win. That was awesome. Watch HQ's coverage right after. All right. News and notes. Oh, we covered that. Let's do everybody is a bust. I'm half awake today.

Christian McCaffrey. Who wants to make the bust case for Christian McCaffrey? It sounds like you have one, so go ahead. No, I mean, look, the only thing that I could... So I actually thought this was interesting. 2018 and 2019, he averaged 10 targets per game in losses, 5.5 targets per game in wins. And they went 7-9 in 2018 and 5-11 in 2019.

He played in three games last year and they lost all of them. So you can't do the win-loss splits. But if they were good, maybe that means fewer catches. It would mean more carries most likely. But it might hurt him a little bit in PPR. And then you just look at the Panthers offense

the last three years. It hasn't been great. It has been a lot better than what Sam Darnold done so if it is actually a darnold problem and not a gaze problem and not an offensive line and jets receivers problem if he's that bad as if he's as bad as he was with the jets then that could be a problem for mcafree too but really we're making cases here we're not saying what we actually think. Those are the only things I can think of. I got one. Okay.

He missed 13 games last year. The coaching staff might say, maybe we should take some work off of his plate. And then they draft Chuba Hubbard and they, they use him on, um, I don't know. Maybe they put him in for a series every game or a series every half to take work away from Christian McCaffrey

because the Panthers realize that their ticket to wins will revolve very heavily around Christian McCaffrey playing well and finding the end zone. And so keeping him on the field might be something of interest to the coaching staff. And so maybe they start to lessen that workload a little bit. I think that's part of the bust case for Christian McCaffrey. I think the thing with McCaffrey is, though, barring injury,

if he plays 15-plus games, the bust label comes if he's not maybe in the top three or top five. Like if he just, like to what Dave's saying, or the production comes down 15%, percent, whatever the case may be. And that's, you know, sounds probably not that much. But, you know, it's coming off of such a significant historical campaign in 2019 that it could drop him behind Kamara or Cook or Henry or whoever. You know, you're looking at it, that upper echelon group of guys. And then it becomes, did you waste your number one overall pick?

So it's hard for me to see him not being in the top five range if he's healthy, but that's where I think the non-injury bust potential comes in. Like if he's not that much better than the field or at least not competing to be in the number one spot. Yeah, well, if you look at just his three games last year and then all of 2019 he's been at least 3.3 fantasy points per game better than rb2 in non-ppr then you start going half ppr full ppr you're talking about in 2019 he was eight fantasy points per game better than rb2 in full ppr and in 2020 only three games he was 5.9 fantasy points per game better than rb2 in full PPR. In 2020, only three games, he was 5.9 fantasy points per game better than

RB2 in full PPR. He's just incredible. I guess we can move on after this. He's the obvious number one pick, but if you're in a salary cap draft, how much more expensive is he than Dalvin Cook? $200 budget.

What's the price difference? $5 to $10. I'd take some like $5 to $8, something like that. So if he's as good as he has been the last few years, I would say it should be more. If he's really going to be six points better or more than RB2, then it's probably like $30. But you're not going that far. than RB2, then it's probably like 30. You know, it's probably...

But you're not going that far. No, but, you know, again, you don't want to have to do that. I don't think you have to do that, so... Okay. All right, then, let's go to Dalvin Cook. Who wants to make a best case for Dalvin Cook? I can start.

Okay, let's do it. 2019, 349 touches in 16 games, including the playoffs. 2019, 349 touches in 16 games, including the playoffs. 2020, 356 touches in 14 games. So back-to-back seasons with a lot of work for Dalvin Cook, there is a chance that he could be back to the Cook that we remember when he wasn't playing in his first couple of seasons because of injuries.

Will this wear him down? You know, you could make an injury case for just about any running back. Sure. But how about running back? Who's been hurt in the past and has, you know, over 700 touches in the last two seasons.

Yeah. Is there anything else, Jamie, that jumps out at you with cook? I guess it could be, you know, that Mike Zimmer has sort of, I don't know, committed to being a little bit more open to throwing the ball a little bit, but sounds like he's more open to throwing the ball a little bit. And there's a coordinator change. And so do they throw the ball more in the red zone? Do they throw the ball more

in general? Do they lean on, you know, what is now a strength? Dalvin Cook is still their best player, but the passing game has become a strength. Kirk Cousins has become a more reliable quarterback from the, for the Vikings, you know, based on what you see. They have an elite playmaker now in Justin Jefferson. They have, you know, one of, if not arguably the best number two receivers in Adam Thielen. They have a tight end that's capable of making plays in Irv Smith that's getting a lot of hype. Does the run game take a little bit of a step back? Again, it's the same thing with McCaffrey. You're drafting him second,

barring an injury situation. If he doesn't finish in the top three to five, that's, I think, where the best potential comes in. Yeah. Well, he's a touchdown scorer. He had a lot of carries last year. That might just not happen. I mean, Jamie just talked about it. But even last year when they started throwing the ball a lot,

he was getting a ton of carries. The year before, I mean, he was on pace for 286 carries. That was in 2019. 2020, he was on pace for 357 carries. So, you know, the touches could go down. He's missed at least two games in three years in a row, but he's awesome. It's interesting with the Vikings because it's like,

nobody wants to draft Kirk cousins, but we love all the skill players. Yeah. Yeah. Well, okay. But do we though? Cause I think we only love two.

I can't imagine that I'm feeling is not going to have an ADP in round four, if not round five so I would think that's you know lukewarm love and just because we're not taking Irv Smith with a top 75 pick or something like that doesn't mean we don't love him I think there's good upside with him when you get him with a middle to late round choice he's one of the top late tight ends to target you cannot use the word love might be with Irv Smith on tight end to target. You cannot use the word love. Might be with Herb Smith. You can't use the word love with Herb Smith. Fine, we like. Yeah, you like him.

I make you happy. Okay, Alvin Kamara. I think it gets a little bit easier now with Alvin Kamara to make the bust case. He was number two in non-PPR, number one last year. He's never had a 200 carry season. He's never had a thousand rushing yards and in 2019 when the

rushing touchdowns weren't there when the touchdowns weren't there he's been a very good touchdown scorer 2019 he was rb14 and non-ppr and rb8 in ppr on a per game basis he had a good year but just didn't score that many touchdowns. So, um, all right, let's go bus case for Camara, Jamie, go for it. I mean, the reception total when Taysom Hill was the quarterback is the biggest concern. You know, you can counter that with the numbers that he put up receiving wise. We're not Mike with Michael Thomas, not on the field. And we know Thomas is going to be out to start the season, uh, for potentially the first, you know, maybe six weeks given what their bye week situation is. So, but yeah, if the quarterback change is,

and what we saw on the sample size with Taysom Hill, the sign of things to come that he's not catching the ball and the touchdowns come down because his offense could be terrible with a change in quarterback, the loss of Michael Thomas and just not a lot of, you know, great skill players around him. You know, Kamara could be facing, you know, nine man boxes and not finding the end zone, not catching the ball. That could be a huge problem for him.

What do you think, Dave? I'm kind of feeling it. I'm feeling the bus case for Alvin Kamara. We know the track record of Jameis Winston, not checking down, always looking downfield. And there was even a story about that in The Athletic about how Sean Payton joked to, he said he joked to Jameis about how they're going to write stories about you

every time you check it down. Just think of it that way. And then Jameis even repeated it when he was meeting with the media that he's been told, check it down, check it down. And the whole idea behind, the premise behind checking it down, and this will make so much sense to you if you've watched any Saints games, is to lull the defense into that sense of that false sense of security so that the Saints can take over the top shots and that's something that Jameis can do well so if Jameis can really get it through his

head to just utilize Alvin Kamara and keep leaning on him then maybe the reception total won't be that bad I don't think he's going to get to 80 catches this year anyway but maybe he gets to 65 maybe he gets to 70 so it won't be that far off but if you don't think he's going to get to 80 catches this year anyway, but maybe he gets to 65. Maybe he gets to 70, so it won't be that far off. If you don't think he's getting to 80 catches, he should not be a top five pick by any stretch. What do you mean? If he can't get there, you're saying? Yeah. That's the reason you're jacking. Unless he continues

to score gobs of touchdowns, which is another huge question mark, like you said, Jayme, because of Taysom Hill being there. Whether Taysom Hill starts or not, we will see him in the red zone. We will see Taysom Hill take some snaps away from Jameis. Sure, but that's been the case. The situation's working around the corner.

So I don't know if it's, you know, it might increase by 10%, 15%, who knows. I think it will. It should go up. But I think the one thing you said there, Dave, about Jameis, which is interesting, is you got to beat the Bruce Arians out of him, essentially, because Arians is not a check down to your running back type of coach.

That's what he's coming from and learned from. So I hope that he learns from Sean Payton, from watching Drew Brees, and can adapt that part of his game. But if you don't think that kamara is catching 80 passes then you shouldn't draft him in the first round well well well you can draft him in the first round you probably i'm sorry if you think he's losing 15 catches with it with adding a game then you shouldn't draft him in the first round really okay so so here's a guy who we talked about the touchdowns how many touchdowns has he been on pace for in his last four seasons per 16 games,

13, 19, seven and 22. The seven obviously was the bad year. But one thing that's interesting about him, you know, you talk about him losing carries to taste some Hill and whatnot near the goal line. He's never had more than 54% of his team's carries inside the five yard line. So he doesn't make his living there. But in his four seasons, the saints have been third through fifth in scoring third, fourth or fifth in scoring every year. And the Michael Thomas injury is really interesting because what did he average seven catches per game without Michael Thomas last year.

So that's well over a hundred. That would be potentially with him and McCaffrey leading the NFL in running back receptions. And that would be great, but at the same time, God, this offense could be terrible. So I don't really know. Is the Michael Thomas injury good or bad for Alvin Kamara? I think it's mixed.

I think it's mixed. First off, he's not out for the season. I think some people are approaching Michael Thomas as if he's not going to play again you know so the second half of the season you know could be a huge boost not just for thomas and the saints offense but obviously for kamara by himself uh we just don't know we don't know how the thing's gonna operate i read something with the devante freeman signing that maybe this is a sign that they want to use Kamara Moore just as a receiver and use him as a slot guy, you know, and help replace Thomas that way. But Sean Payton, you know, prior to all this, before Thomas got hurt, maybe he knew.

But remember, there was a report of they're going to be a running team, you know, and that's going to be where their bread and butter is. And so it's why you should be somewhat excited about Latavius Murray as a late-round pick, or mid-round pick, excuse me. But also, clearly, if Kamara's getting more touches, like you said, Adam, what's the high? 200 what? Carries?

Yeah. He's never had 200. Never had 200. He's been on pace for like 200, but he's never had that. If he can get close to 250, he would have been a 1,000-yard rusher last year if he played Week 17. He had like, what, 945, I think it was? 950 in that range?

Oh, sorry. He had 932. He was on pace for 199 carries and 994 yards. So, you know, if he can get 250 carries and

still be 80 catches, he's an easy top. Oh, yeah. That's a great... So, who's taking him... can get 250 carries and still be 80 catches, he's an easy top. Oh, yeah, that's a great. So who's taking him? Are you guys taking him third? Easy. In PPR for now. Really easy.

Okay. I like the confidence. Just to put it out there, Adam, and I think everybody would have been able to predict this because I've got the information here. He had 57 carries last year against eight or more in the box. He averaged three yards a carry. And that's like over two yards worse than how he eight or more in the box. He averaged three yards a carry. That's

over two yards worse than how he did against seven in the box or six or fewer in the box. Saints need to do something to try and get defenses to put those safeties back. It's still one of the best offensive lines in football and one of the best play callers in football. That's what you're hoping for. He's great. He's just a great

player. So is Derrick Henry. Derrick Henry's not going to have 80 catches. He's RB4. He's just a great player. All right, and so is Derrick Henry. But Derrick Henry's not going to have 80 catches. He is RB4. He's the fourth pick off the board. Let's make the bus case for Derrick Henry. Is Julio Jones the bus case for Derrick Henry that he just won't get the workload anymore? What is the bus case?

I would go back to the same bus case that I made for Dalvin Cook, except this one is way more real. Derrick Henry's had back-to-back years with over 400 touches. 409 touches in 2019, 418 in 2020. And I know the dude is half cyborg, but eventually

that's got to catch up with a human being. Right, but he's half machine. It might be 80%. We don't know. Might be. Okay, so big workload for Derrick Henry. Anything else? Anything else that worries you? The touchdowns come down.

I mean, look, like you said, they could be better throwing the ball. They could be better throwing the ball in the red zone. They could finally get a 10-touchdown season out of Julio Jones for the second time in his career because of the change and the Falcons having not really the trust in other people to throw the ball to where the Titans do with A.J. Brown. So they can give those red zone shots to Julio Jones and he scores and A.J. Brown scores, you know, 10 plus touchdowns, both of them. And Derrick Henry

goes from, you know, 15 touchdowns to eight you know and his rushing numbers go to 1400 or you know 1500 or less so again it's this to me it's the same thing with with all these guys that are health risks that it's just a matter of they stay healthy where do they fall from their draft spot you know if henry from four to 15, obviously he's a bust. If he falls from four to eight, is he a bust if he's in a good mix of other guys that are all performing well? So I hope we get another safe season for Derek Henry

where he doesn't avoid injury and can still have that heavy workload. Yeah, one thing that you should know, the guy had 2,000 yards rushing, another 114 receiving. He had 17 touchdowns. It's an incredible season. He was almost 10 points.

He was nine points per game worse than McCaffrey in PPR. He was four points per game worse than Kamara. He was three points per game worse than Cook. Rough, just kind of rounding there. And that was on a 2,000-yard season. It's crazy. So if he just has a really good season, it's easy to see him being RB 8-10

in PPR. Full PPR. It's obviously a tougher bus case to make in non-PPR or even half. And the other thing is, I don't know how much you guys care about this, but the history of 2,000 yard rushers, the next season, it's not – I mean, look, a lot of them had good seasons,

but none of them came even close. Nobody even reached – well, Barry Sanders had the most yards in the next year. It was 1,491 yards in 16 games. He played a full season. All of them lost at least a yard per carry. Six of the seven lost 1. at least a yard per carry. Six of the seven lost 1.3 or more yards per carry. Now, I think most of them

averaged a higher yards per carry than Henry did last year. I don't think he's going down to four. He was 5.4 yards per carry. If he loses a yard per carry and Henry's at 4.4, it's going to be disappointing for you. But yeah. He can also see his touchdowns go up because the offense is better.

From 17? it wouldn't be it wouldn't be realistic but it wouldn't be shocking either if he gets 20 last year wasn't realistic and look what he did yeah he's incredible so who's comfortable his efficiency could go up because defenses might have no choice but to just sit and play zone and take their chances with Henry

and take their chances with Julio yeah you got to make a decision on one or the other pretty much every single play. So his efficiency could spike. When he saw light boxes last year, he averaged six yards a carry. How often are teams going to stack the box against Derrick Henry now? They didn't even need

Julio Jones for that necessarily. Now they've got Julio Jones. I don't know what defenses are going to do. Where are you guys comfortable taking Derrick Henry in, in all, in the different formats? Fourth in PPR, second and none.

Okay. Probably fourth and a half to fourth. Okay. All right. We're going to take a break. When we come back, we got four more, four more busts.

Ezekiel Elliott, Jonathan Taylor. We don't have to spend too much time on him. Austin Eckler and Travis Kelsey. All right, we'll be right back on Fantasy Football today. Did you know that across Ontario utility damage happens 19 times a day? That's over

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And we welcome you back. All right, Ezekiel Elliott. Is he still good? He was obviously disappointed in the way he ran the football last year he lost a lot of weight looking for a kind of a fresh season fresh i don't know fresh start something like that but offensive line was a last year was a mess all right what's the bus case for ezekiel elliott he is the fifth pick in drafts right now jamie tony pollard gets more work you know aside from the injuries happening around him again and him getting hurt himself because you've seen that

aside from him getting hurt, which nobody wants to see, but Tony Pollard getting more work. You know, Mike McCarthy holding true to his word about wanting to save Zeke for a playoff push and in the playoffs and they give a very talented backup running back an opportunity to get more, you know, playing time. Maybe it's a few series a game as opposed to one.

Maybe it's goal line touches. Maybe it's passing down work. Whatever the case may be, that becomes a huge problem for Zeke. And look, we're counting on Dak to be back and being at the same level that he was, but Dak is dealing with a shoulder injury now. Amari Cooper's on the pup list. So maybe this offense isn't going to be as explosive and powerful in helping Zeke bounce back to the level that I think he can.

I mean, he was, you know, very good last year, you know, with Dak. He was averaging over 19 PPR points per game in the five games that Dak started. And that would have put him fourth per game, assuming that everybody else stayed the same. So he would have been behind the four guys I have ranked ahead of him, which are McCaffrey, again, points per game, McCaffrey, Kamara, Cook, and Henry. So he's got RB1 potential.

He could lead the league in rushing. He's done that twice since 2016. He could still be a 50-catch guy, 50-plus-catch guy. There's a ton to like about Zeke, but if Tony Pollard gets more work and things around him fall apart, you've already seen that happen. I love that he's involved in the passing game. Look at the last three years.

He's had 77, 54, and 52 catches. So that's wonderful. He was on pace for, I think, 77 catches with Dak. That won't be that high because Dak threw 45 times a game in those five games, something like that. Question, do you guys have concerns about his performance? I've talked about this a lot. A lot of people have talked about this, but he just hasn't really run the ball as well the last two years. He had a bit of a fumbling problem. The

big plays are few and far between. So as a football player, are you a little worried about Ezekiel Elliott? A little bit uh I'm not so worried about the fumbles as much as I am the lack of breakaway runs and this also stood out to me last year tell me what you guys make of this in his first five games he averaged 1.8 yards before contact that's with Dak when Dak was gone last 10 games 1.9 yards before contact remember their offensive line took on all kinds of crazy changes but it it really, not a huge change, right? 1.8 to 1.9. What about after contact?

2.3 yards after contact in those first five games, 2.0 yards after contact in those last 10. So I wonder if he's just, and maybe the weight loss is going to give him a chance to have more breakaway runs, but maybe he's just needing to be that volume guy, an opportunity guy, and he's just in the right place at the right time. You know what I'm saying? Like he's going to get 20 touches

a game. That's part of the key for Ezekiel Elliott to be amazing for fantasy. It's the key for any running back to be great in fantasy. It's not necessarily him being one of the most supremely talented running backs still in the national football league. Yeah, I've talked about the big plays. Yeah. 2016 to 2018, he averaged one carry of 20 or more yards on every 29 carries. The last two years, it's been every 78 carries. I mean, that is shocking. He's not giving you big plays lately.

Hard to run with all that money in your pockets. And he's had a ton of work in his career. He's 26 years old. That's not old, but he's got 1,400 carries in five seasons. I think that's just regular season, too.

I think the fact that he dedicated himself to getting in better shape is a good sign. You've heard me say this before. I wonder if he checked out when everything fell apart around him and the team was just flailing and why am i going to get myself killed behind this line and do all this stuff you know that that mentality hasn't set into anybody you know it's just it's just human nature so the fact that he is in the weight room and you know thinner losing weight is always good for running backs in my opinion um i think he's gonna have a big year. He's the fifth

overall pick for me. Dave? He's in the top five for me as well. Okay. All right. Jonathan Taylor's next. Should we skip him? Yeah. Skip him. Austin Eckler is seventh.

Let's make the bus case for Eckler. Dave? He's a cinch to work in the pass game, but is he still going to get short yardage goal line work? There's already a report that was out today from Fernando Ramirez for SI who expects either Josh Kelly or Larry Roundtree to do short yardage goal line work for the Chargers this year.

That sucks. When it comes to off Eckler and finding the end zone, he just hasn't done it. He's rarely been given the chance to get near the goal line and to put touchdowns in, except for those four games where he was the main guy. We lost Dave's audio. Dave, I don't know if you can hear me.

Dave, can you hear me? Dave can't hear me either. Jamie, you can hear me, right? I hear you, yeah. But you can't hear Dave, right? Nope. Okay. Dave, can you hear me? Dave can't hear me either. Jamie, you can hear me, right? I hear you, yeah. But you can't hear Dave, right? Nope. Okay. Dave, we'll have to set Shracker, send him a text message. I know Jamie's got to hop off soon, so hopefully we can get Dave's audio.

I'll finish it out until Dave comes back. Yeah, alright, so give me your thoughts on... I'm already here. Oh, hey. We missed about 30 seconds of that. So Larry Roundtree or Josh Kelly could get the goal line work. You were saying that we haven't seen Eckler at the goal line except for the first four games of 2019 when Melvin Gordon was out. He did very well. He had three one-yard touchdowns,

two rushing, one receiving. But that's a big deal. So if you take that report seriously, Dave, and Eckler's not going to get goal line work, what does that mean for where you're going to draft him? It's going to be format dependent. In PPR, I'm still going to take him with a middle of the first round pick, but in non-PPR, at best, he'd be a late first round pick

and maybe even an early second round pick. Seven goal line carries over the last two seasons, only one last year. Well, six the year before then, if my math is correct. Okay, Jamie, what do you think? Can we justify Eckler in the top eight? In PPR, easily, yeah. I mean, he's got, you know, 80-plus catch potential, if not more. He was just a monster with Justin Herbert last year.

I want to see him come off the field for touchdowns for Joshua Kelly and Larry Roundtree before I really like, oh, my gosh, this is terrible, and what did I do? Panic about it because why are you taking your best players off the field for, you know, the, the one yard touchdown plunges? And is that going to be really the thing that makes or breaks him as a fantasy option? So I still think he's going to have the chance to be in the six to eight touchdown in the rushing touchdown range and probably three to five more in the receiving game. So he can get 10 total touchdowns, but I think he's got 1800 total yard potential.

And I would take him ahead of Jonathan Taylor at this point of PPR. Wow. Okay. Um, Camara in 2019, he had five rushing touchdowns and one receiving touchdown in 14 games. And he was RB8 in PPR. And he was hurt.

Yeah, he was hurt. I mean, it was 14 games, but I feel like it was more like 13 games. He didn't leave one game super early. And he had 81 catches that year in 14 games. So I guess if Eckler puts up similar numbers, he could still be a top eight running back. And then our last one is Travis Kelsey. Okay. Travis Kelsey eighth overall. This is mostly half PPR ADP. I believe. I really think people are taking him earlier than that in full PPR. Not much, but yeah. Eighth for Kelsey. All right. What's the bus case for Kelsey?

Two of the last three years, he has been just absolutely unbelievable and worthy of a first round pick for sure. Here's where he's ranked among wide receivers in the last three years. Eighth, seventh, and fourth in full PPR. Ninth, 11th, and third in non-PPR. Jamie, what's the bus case for Kelsey?

Patrick Mahomes gets hurt. Other than that, I think it's just injury around him, you know, besides injury himself, but you know, he's just so dominant. He,

he, he, he plays the game at a different level of that position. You know, they use them at a different level of that position. Eddie Reed's so creative with how he uses Travis Kelsey at the red zone, uh, in the red zone,

excuse me, at the goal line. Um, you know, they've given him opportunities to in the red zone, excuse me, at the goal line. You know, they've given him opportunities to throw the ball. It's just so much fun to watch this chief offense operate and how much Kelsey does things. So as long as Mahomes is playing the majority of the season and Kelsey's healthy, I think the bus potential is minimal. But look, he's in his early 30s now, and, you know,

you hope he doesn't start to fall off a cliff. But again, that's, I think, more injury-related than it is performance. I got one. He had seven touchdowns last year from 10 yards or closer, Kelsey did. What if the offensive line changes in Kansas City are so good that Andy Reid leans on Clyde Edwards-Hilaire inside the 10 more often than he did last year.

And that takes touchdowns and catches off the board for Kelsey. Then he's probably still going to be tight end one, but he might be a lot closer to tight end two in the per-game metric. I was thinking that if two young players take big steps forward, that might hurt Kelsey, and those two players would be Edwards, Zeller, and Hardman. You look at the first seven games of the season,

he was on pace for 128 targets, and Mahomes threw just under 35 passes per game. Last eight games of the season for Kelsey, he was on pace for 178 targets, a pace of 50 more targets than what he was in the first half of the year. Emma Holmes was throwing 43.3 passes per game. So if they're more balanced,

and Edward Ziller's better, that could hurt. Sure. Do we believe that? Are we really worried about that? No. It's a slight concern. It's worth mentioning. It's a good point by Dave. You know, I think Hardman, if he hits, he could be better than what Sammy Watkins has been

for the majority of the regular season. Watkins has been great for them in the playoffs. But if Hardman is that much of a legit talent, and remember, he was a second-round pick in the NFL draft, you know, so there's high expectations for him, and he's having a great training camp so far by all accounts. So if he hits and takes some production away from not just Travis Kelsey, but Tyreek Hill also, then yeah, sure. There could be some, some risk involved in, and look, they're, they're now about ring chasing, you know,

that's the thing you got to worry about, you know, so do they start to take some games off with these guys? Not just because of injury, just because of rest as they get closer to, you know, the playoffs, if they have the ones he potentially locked up. By the way, we have some big news. Two things. One, Devante Smith has a knee sprain and he's weak to weak. So when Jamie hops off, we'll talk about that. The other thing is I am on the clock in my dynasty league. So don't take Devontae Smith.

I wish I could. Actually, this is the free agent draft. So we can make a draft pick together, Dave. It'll be a lot of fun. Jamie, your work here is done. I appreciate it. I'll see you later. All right, check.

We'll see you at noon on Fantasy Football today on CBS Sports HQ. Dave, Devontae Smith. Yeah, all I saw was he's week to week. That's not good. Yeah, your thoughts. What do you think? This is on top of Jalen Hurts not having the best start to training camp, apparently.

It's his top target. If he doesn't have Devontae Smith ready to go, and it's valuable. This is a super important time for Smith and for Hurts to get on the same page. It could get messy. This offense could be messy.

At least the passing game could be very messy without him there and with Hurts not playing at the level that I think everybody was hoping he would come and throw at in practice. He hasn't been great. I'm staying on top of this as much as I can. Everybody was hoping he would come and throw at in practice. He hasn't been great. So it's, I'm staying on top of this as much as I can. I know that hurts is one of those big time breakout quarterbacks. He was on my pre training camp breakout list, but I'm,

I'm, I'm officially nervous. Now, if, if Devante Smith has a knee issue, that's going to put them on week to week. You ready for my pick? Yeah.

What do you got? I'm going to, this is the veteran draft, the free agent draft. Sure. I you got I'm going to this is the veteran draft the free agent draft sure I already know I'm going to take it's going to be the Washington DST okay

DST scoring is pretty wacky in this league and the best non DSTs are Eric Ebron Sterling Shepard, Tariq Cohen. Okay. It's pretty bad.

DeMarcus Robinson, AJ Green. Jameis is available. Cam Newton is available. Is it a super flex? Nope. I have Josh Allen and Ryan Tannehill.

Yeah, you don't need those guys. The Washington DST. Yeah, I don't need that. Is on my team. That's fine. Ready for my starting lineup? Yeah, I'd like to know who your tight end is. I have five tight ends.

They are all not great. So, yeah, why add Ebron to that mix? They're all Ebron-esque. They are Higby, Howard, Jarwin, Tunyon, and Troutman. Well, at least you got Troutman. Josh Allen, Aaron Jones, David Montgomery, with Travis Etienne on the bench. Okay.

That was your first-round pick in your rookie draft. Yes. Stefan Diggs, Terry McLaurin, and wide receiver three is a... Oh, Robert Woods. I just took him in the first round. You just happened to pick him up off waivers? What the hell was that? Yeah, he was one of the players available

in the free agent draft. His contract expired. Yeah, he was thrown back. Devontae Adams was available in the free agent draft. What kind of dynasty league is this? Where you throw players back? You have to sign them to one, three, or five-year contracts. Can't you re-sign them?

You can extend them, but I guess he had been extended, or this guy ran out of space. You can't keep everyone forever. You have to make some tough choices. It's actually pretty good because you get some fun trade offers when people are about to lose a player. I like it. And you still have very deep rosters that you keep. You keep, I think, 24

players. So yeah, my team's actually pretty sick if we stay healthy. I'm excited about it. We need a tight end. Yeah, but you could have had Demarcus Robinson. Well, a couple years ago, the Patriots DST guided me to... Within half a point of a championship,

I lost the heartbreaker, but DSTs are wild in this league. All right, thanks for indulging me. Where do you draft Devontae Smith if you're drafting today? I would dock him toward round nine. And he might have, in regular leagues, he might have been going there in the first place. But he's at the point now where you can't even say,

well, he could be my wide receiver three to start the season. If he's week to week with a knee sprain, that's code for he's going to be out a little while. Day-to-day, I like better than week-to-week, obviously, but week-to-week is usually a bad thing. Not a great start to the offseason for that exciting rookie and for the Eagles passing game. Okay, so we'll hopefully get a little bit more information,

talk to you about it on the Tuesday episode, which we are recording on Monday. That is Everyone is a Bust Part 2, players 9 through 16 in the rankings. And we are going to see you Tuesday night on YouTube for a live mock draft at 7 p.m. Eastern, youtube.com slash fantasyfootballtoday. Live mock draft, youtube.com slash fantasyfootballtoday. Thanks to Dave Richard and Jamie Isenberg.

I am Adam Azer, and we will talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy for Panty.