Fantasy Football Today - Everyone is a Bust (Part Two)! Why Hopkins, Jacobs and Jackson (Among Others) Could Disappoint (08/04 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: August 4, 2020

We cover most of Round 2 on today's show, making a bust case for each pick. Which second rounder are we most concerned about (1:40)? And who's ready for some DST trivia (4:15)!? Plus news and notes (6:15) as the DEN offensive line takes a hit and Jordan Reed signs with SF ... Bust cases for DeAndre Hopkins (11:40), Nick Chubb (14:45) and Josh Jacobs (20:00). How do we separate the RBs who don't catch a lot of passes? Then it's on to Julio Jones (30:23) and Aaron Jones (35:08). Is Julio slowing down? Are targets an issue? ... What could go wrong for Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes (40:31)? What about Travis Kelce and George Kittle (48:00)? ... Your emails at [e-mail] and your Apple Podcast questions Hey! We are giving away a 75 inch and 55 inch TV! The contest is completely free to enter. To win, go to CBSSports.com/giveaway 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow the new FFT Twitch channel: https://www.twitch.tv/FFToday Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @YardsPerGretch, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. I'll tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races.

Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben. Well, DeAndre Hopkins is coming off a bit of a down season and going to a new team and not really having an off season. Nick Chubb had 11 catches in eight games with Kareem Hunt. I can't find anything bad to say about Travis Kelsey or Patrick Mahomes, but everyone is a bust, so we'll figure something out.

We'll figure out a way to make you less excited to draft these players. Really? No. We'll just make the case against them, and you can decide if these cases are good or not. It is Monday as a record, but it is Tuesday for you. Welcome to the show. Welcome to Fantasy Football Today. If you're watching on YouTube, I forgot to change shirts, but pretend this is a different day. I'm Adam Azer with Dave Richard, Jamie Isenberg, and second show of the week. What's up, Ben Gretch?

What's going on? I always love, I mean, it's not fun to think about guys' busts, but I always love kind of the ranges of outcome stuff that we do, and I'm excited to think about how things could go wrong because that's pretty important. All right, I'm going to list the names of, yeah, good exercise here. Nick Chubb, Josh Jacobs, DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, Aaron Jones, Lamar Jackson, Travis Kelsey, Patrick Mahomes, Chris Godwin,

George Kittle, Miles Sanders, Kenyon Drake, Kenny Galladay, and Austin Eckler. Dave, who among those players are you truly concerned about being a bust? Well, I would have said Aaron Jones, but Galladay is on the reserve COVID list. That's a list of unlimited uncertainties. So I'll say Galladay. All right. Jamie, how about you?

Galladay's a good one. I mean, still Aaron Jones, but it's funny because the way running backs are getting pushed up, it's hard to not take him in the second round if you are inclined to take a running back, especially at one of the first four picks. And I'll go back. I think I said this earlier either today on HQ or on our earlier podcast

that can't sit here and knock the veterans, knock the rookies and, and how it helps the veterans with the lack of off season and not say Aaron Jones doesn't benefit in some way that AJ Dillon not getting to work and, and having a little bit potential slow start. um there's not really a lot of bus potential for me in these guys really okay Ben how do you feel uh I think there's bus potential in a few of them especially the running backs who don't catch a ton of passes um but I kind of agree with Jamie on Jones.

I mean, he's the one that sticks out for me like it stuck out for Jamie. One of the things I'm also adding is you can't really make the case that I've made where if COVID is going to mean that more players are going to miss time and there's going to be more random opportunities for players. My case against Jones most of the offseason has been that he played these big snaps snap shares only when Jamal Williams was either out or missed time and they've added AJ Dillon and

they don't want to use him as a full-time player, but it also would seem to indicate there's going to probably be a few games again this year where, and Jones can play some pretty big snap shares. If you know, some of the other guys miss some time. So, you know, it only took him four games where he got over 65% of the snaps to have such a big season. So maybe that's, you know, maybe that's, uh, uh, an element of the uncertainty of this season as well as to think about the, not just the guys behind the guys that could, that could have opportunity, but how the, the main guys could get more opportunity if the dudes behind

them are missing time. All right. Well, we'll talk more about these guys, talk about them all individually, and we have a lot to, uh, promote as well., we'll talk more about these guys, talk about them all individually. And we have a lot to promote as well. And we have a lot of your emails, fantasyfootballatcbsi.com, plus your Apple podcast questions. I'm not sure if we're going to have time for emails throughout the rest of the week since we have an auction on Wednesday's show. We have quarterback preview. We have tight end preview.

So I want to read some of your questions today. I would also like to do a random trivia question. Maybe it's not even fantasy relevant, but here is your trivia question, courtesy of Ben Schrager. Who was the last DST to repeat as the number one DST in CBS scoring? Seahawks.

Broncos. I think it is Seahawks. I think you're think it is the Seahawks. I think you're all wrong. It was a trick question. It has not happened, at least since 2000, which is as far back as the data. I love how you guys' idea, you and Schrager's idea of trivia is kickers and DSTs and trick questions.

It's all right. You're getting your point across. And who was the number one DST last year? Patriots. Was it the number one DST last year? Patriots. Was it the Patriots, Schrager? Because Schrager told me it was the Steelers. I have it as the Steelers by four points. I've got the Patriots by 39 points.

Well, that's close. That's the difference between DST scoring in every single league. Yeah, I guess so. Probably. All right. Well, listen, it doesn't happen. It's hard to repeat. It's hard to repeatST scoring in every single league. Yeah, I guess so. Probably. All right. Well, listen, it doesn't happen. It's hard to repeat. It's hard to repeat number one at every single position.

That was today's random trivia question presented by Ben Schrager. Thank you, Ben, for giving us a DST question. We've got the auction tomorrow. It's on Twitch. Or today, actually. Excuse me. Tuesday, 3 p.m. Eastern on Twitch. A live auction draft with industry experts.

Liz Loza from Yahoo, she's going to be joining us. Dave Richard from CBS, he'll be there. Live on-screen results, mid-draft analysis, auction strategy talk, twitch.com slash FF today to celebrate draft season. And thank you for being such loyal listeners. We are giving away a 75-inch and a 55-inch TV. The contest is completely free to enter. Go to cbssports.com slash giveaway. And I'll include the link to that in the episode

description. But this ends on August 17th. But if you want a big freaking TV, go to cbssports.com slash giveaway. Some news and notes. Denver right tackle Juwan James is opting out. The Falcons signed Darquez Zanard, a cornerback, and Odell Beckham told the Wall Street Journal magazine, quote, I just feel like the season shouldn't happen and I'm prepared for it to not happen, and I wouldn't mind not having it. However, the reports today indicate that he is ready to go, not planning on opting out. But Jamie, let's go to the Denver right tackle situation. Juwan James, who was hurt last year. This team has had a real tough time keeping its offensive line healthy,

getting good offensive line play. And now they're right. Tackle is opting out. Is this a big blow for the Broncos offense? I mean, it certainly doesn't help, but like you said, he missed time last year.

I think having, you know, the running backs that they have improved play from drew lock, you know, that's, you know, hopefully better understanding of what to do. Veterans that know how to make do with some potential offensive line issues. I'm not going to downgrade anybody specifically

because of Jawan James not being there. Jordan Reed just signed a one-year deal with the 49ers. Reaction? George Kittle's a bust. That's a good wide receiver for them. Oh, yeah, maybe. Listen, they're going to have a lot of fun mixing and matching personnel

for the six games that Jordan Reed stays healthy for. What team did you say just signed? I'm sorry. Unless Schrager's got it wrong again, like with the DST. 49ers. Yeah. Thank you, Ben Schrager, for your... He was like with the DST. The 49ers. Thank you, Ben Schrager. He was wrong on the DST, but he's right on this one.

Okay, good. All right. Should we talk about Beckham? No, just talk about all you want before the safety protocols are in place. I think it's irrelevant. Okay. All right, then. 49ers are going to go into all these two tight. I'm sorry. I'm still stuck on the Jordan Reed thing, but they're going to have to use a lot more

two tight end formations, I would assume, right? Ben, don't you think they're just looking for pass catchers at this point? Right. Who can catch the football? Right. Debo's bad guy. I agree. It's a bad sign for everybody there. I see it's a bad sign for Debo Samuel. I agree. It's a bad sign for everybody there. Yeah.

I see it as a downgrade for the receivers, for sure. Sorry. Really? I mean, we're making a big deal about Jordan Reed? Well, why would they be targeting him when they have Kittle? Look, you have George Kittle in the contract situation. I don't think Jordan Reed is going to come in and all of a sudden become the answer

or put pressure on George Kittle. But, you know, I mean, if, if healthy, he's one of the better pass catching tight ends that we've seen in recent years, you know, but he has a hard time staying on the field for what it's worth. You know, it's somebody that's going to be in there and cause a problem for the pass catchers there. You know, this is not a traditional offense and how they line up and run things and do

things creatively with the way Kyle Shannon calls plays. So, you know, this isn't a fantasy thing that's going to really impact a lot but I do think that it's Debo Samuel is probably going to miss the first six weeks of the season and you have to start to prepare for that I'm just thinking about what's going to happen when they they line up with one running back like most they're full back which is cal use check kittle's going to be out there reed's going to be out there and then put another receiver out there it doesn't matter who it's going to be defenses are going to have a hard time figuring out how to defend that because juice check is so versatile because reed is versatile kittle is versatile that this is this is going to cause some problem it's going to strain defenses for sure. I like the landing spot.

I don't think it necessarily means anything for fantasy. I actually, the more that we're sitting here talking about it, this concerns me for Kittle. Reid is not a good blocker. And Kittle's whole issue is that he doesn't necessarily run enough routes. They love how good of a blocker he is. He's such an elite blocker that they don't get him out into his receiving routes. And for fantasy purposes, if they're going to be in two tight end formations,

they're not going to be leaving Reed in to block. I mean, I don't know that that's going to happen a ton. I'm not going to dramatically downgrade Kittle. But, I mean, don't be surprised if you see Kittle held in to block a little bit more and Reed going out into some of these routes. Yeah, I almost think they're viewing Reed as more of a receiver more so than they're receiving tight end. And I,

I, I, I see where you're coming from Ben, but I don't think, you know, Kittle has anything to be, it's not a knock on when you say really, really not you,

Jamie, but it's not a knock on Kittle's receiving at all. And it's just like from fantasy perspective, we think, well, that would be crazy from San Francisco's perspective. It's George Kittle is an extra offensive lineman on the field. He's that good of a blocker. From a fantasy perspective, we think, well, that would be crazy. From San Francisco's perspective, George Kittle is an extra offensive lineman on the field.

He's that good of a blocker. So we're just using one amazing skill set over another. They don't care about fantasy stats. Okay. Jordan Reed missed the entire season. It's been a while since he's been truly great. He played in 13 games in 2018 and he had 558 yards. So we'll keep that in perspective. And if this really is a knock to George Kittle, then I totally hate my flex team

that we drafted on Saturday. I just got worse. I just got to say, there's zero chance, zero, no chance that the 49ers are going to try and limit George Kittle's receiving opportunity. Why would they do that?

He's good. He's not good. He's amazing. And he's a great blocker too. Jamie's right. And this is what I think. I think he's another body at wide receiver who happens to be a tight end. The end.

That's it. That's it. The end. Kittle's fine. The tight end. Okay. Everybody is a bust. Part two,

including George Kittle, who we'll get to, but let's start with number 11 in fantasy pros, half P bust, part two, including George Kittle, who we'll get to. But let's start with number 11 in Fantasy Pro's half PPR ADP, and it's DeAndre Hopkins, who had 104 catches, 1,165 yards, seven touchdowns on 150 targets, career low, 11.2 yards per catch. But, you know, we've seen players bounce back from that in the past for sure.

What could go wrong for DeAndre Hopkins? Dave, why don't you kick it off? Well, I'll just use what Jamie and Ethan and Ben and the whole world have said to me when I express my joy and interest in getting DeAndre Hopkins on my fantasy team, and that is that the target volume is way down from what we're used to seeing. And it could be down by 10% from what he was doing in Houston, where he was getting 150 plus targets.

But I don't think it's going to be much more than that. I think he's going to be the lead guy there. I think he'll certainly be a focal point in the red zone. But let's just put it out there. There were two receivers last year in Arizona that had just over a hundred targets. Maybe it's going to be spread around so evenly between Fitzgerald and Kirk and, and, and Andy Isabella.

And now Deandre Hopkins that they'll all be on this equal playing field and they'll all see the exact same amount of targets. Okay. Uh, you don't believe that. No, no. Jordan Reed's going to takeorge kittle out the field uh i understand okay um so who is anybody concerned about hopkins what what could go wrong jamie well i i think you know dave said it it's you know a guy that's used to being 150 target guy

and you know he's i think needs that type of. I don't think he's going to get that type of volume, you know. And so I would say like round 130 is probably the target number he's going to get, which is a good enough number. And the last time he had those type of targets was the second in his hands where he went from, you know, essentially being 14 yards per catch down to 11 yards per catch last year, which was a career low in the year that I'm referencing, which was 2014, he was 16 yards per catch. So, you know, I don't know what exactly he'll do in this offense in terms of target share. If he typically gets 30% of the targets,

he would have had 160 targets in this offense, which would have been the second most in the NFL last year behind Michael Thomas. I just don't see that happening for him. So I don't think Kirk is going to take a step back. I think he actually takes a step forward. So I had 104 targets, I believe, last year, which was second on the team while missing three games. And I don't think Kyler is going to throw that much more.

So I guess to answer your first question, I should have said Hopkins is a guy that makes me nervous in this group because he does make me nervous in this group. And so I still think he's one of the top 10 wide receivers in fantasy. I still think he's justifiably going in the second round. It's fine. But I do think that there could be a drop off in his production. If he's not scoring 10 plus touchdowns, then I don his production if he's not scoring 10-plus touchdowns,

and I don't know if he's going to score 10-plus touchdowns in the playoffs. Okay. Let's go to our next player, then. It's Nick Chubb. Nick Chubb, 12th pick off the board. As I mentioned at the top of the show, 11 catches in his last eight games. Ben, what could go wrong for Nick Chubb? Just Kareem Hunt being a larger percentage of the offense than we would like to see in projecting Hunt here

because we know that Chubb's receiving role, you mentioned at the top of the show, when Hunt was back was very limited but um we're still relying on the you know supreme efficiency that chubb is shown as a runner to to see quite a bit of upside and i i have him close to if not a couple of yards above henry i think as the uh highest projected rushing yardage uh you know, back leader in my full league projections for 2020. And that starts to at least give him a strong floor, even though it's not necessarily all those high value touches.

But the two issues would be Chubb taking too many of the receptions and then, excuse me, Hunt taking too many of the receptions and then Hunt also potentially taking too much of the goal line work and the red zone work, which he scored more touchdowns than Chubb did after Hunt was activated. And Chubb's touchdowns, I think he scored six in his first eight games and then two in his final eight games. So that was part of the reason there were such big splits in Chubb's performance with and without Hunt is that his touchdowns completely created when Hunt was on the field. So if Hunt's taking all those high value touches, all the passing game and all the scoring looks, that's not going to be good news for Chubb. So, yeah, the rushing, in terms of the high-value touches, he was getting the catches,

but Chubb was still dominating the goal line touches inside the five. But as I've mentioned, he was pathetically horrible. 15 carries for negative 14 yards inside the five-yard line. Are you fair to that? Yeah, basically. I mean, it 14 yards inside the five yard line. Are you fair? It's that. Yeah, basically. I mean,

it's incredible. Nobody talks about it. It's incredible. 15 carries for negative. If he's, if he does start giving way to, to Kareem hunt near the goal line, that would be a problem.

It didn't really happen last year, but can you put that on your artwork behind you? Oh, sure. Yeah. What's this stat again? Inside the three? Inside the five.

15 carries, negative 14 yards and two touchdowns. That's pretty amazing. But obviously, the longest you can possibly have a run from inside the five

is five yards positive. So all it takes is a few big negatives to really hurt you. But it is the, he had the fewest rushing yards inside the five yard line.

Negative 14 is the lowest. Sure. Devlin Hodges had negative 10. That was, that's number two. All right. Well, yeah. Okay.

Sorry for harping on that stat. Okay. Are there serious concerns about Nick Chubb or just kind of like, well, you know, we'll see. Serious concerns, no.

But, you know, more so in PPR than none in half. You know, I think he's, as he showed last year, he could challenge for the rushing lead. Offensive line got better with two significant additions. Kevin Stefanski has clearly shown he wants to run the ball. The lack of maybe Jarvis Landry for the first few games of the year

could help everybody in terms of catching passes there. He's on the active PUP list, so we'll see what happens with Landry. But PPR is a different story because his his catches didn't go down and so um you know when I said it on on the Monday morning show that Nick Chubb, Derek Henry, Josh Jacob, Joe Mixon the guys that haven't had a significant ceiling with their receptions they're all kind of the same to me and it's just a matter of which one you like best and which one you think is going to, A, be so great rushing the ball and scoring those rushing touchdowns, or B, have maybe a step forward in the passing game. And I don't know if Chubb is the guy to do that as long using for them is not necessarily correct. And what I'm getting at is I would imagine that they would think that both of them are capable of handling any down or distance role. And they just one guy goes out there for three or four plays, and then they flip them. Next guy's out there for three or four plays, and then it's totally random which running back is actually the one in any specific down and distance i wonder if that's possible because it's not like chubb has frying

pans for hands and he he just stinks at catching the football he proved in the first eight games last year it's something he can do so i and kareem hunt can certainly work inside the five we've seen that from him in his career what if they just say look we've got two great running backs we're going to if they just say, look, we've got two great running backs. We're going to run the hell out of the ball. We've got this great offensive line. Let's make it really unpredictable and let's just have one in one a, and then that just makes it a messier situation for fantasy managers, making Chubb a riskier pick in round two.

And to that point, he caught more than three balls per game in the first eight games of last season before Hunt was there. I mean, about his hands, he was actually a pretty solid receiver in the first half of the year and and i don't know if that eight game sample after where he was catching 1.4 balls per game i mean he was basically on a 50 catch pace in the first half so i yeah i mean i agree with dave all right so who would you rather have, Nick Chubb or Josh Jacobs? Jacobs. Oh, Chubb. You guys both like Jacobs? You know, he's our next guy, Ben.

So why don't you tell us what could go wrong for Josh Jacobs, who is 13th in ADP? Well, to Dave's point about Chubb potentially not having as much receiving downside as we think. And there's a new coaching staff that threw to their lead back a lot. They're early down back a lot. Ran plays where they sprinted out Dalvin Cook and threw to him. We already know that Josh Jacobs is probably not going to catch passes. A lot of fantasy managers all offseason have been pretty excited about the potential that he might add catches.

But I don't think anything they've done has told us that that's going to happen. They added a really explosive Lynn Bowden in the draft who played receiver at Kentucky as well as quarterback. And they announced him as a running back, and they're treating him as a running back. But he's a pass catcher. They gave big money, not huge money, but big money for a backup aging 5'8", sub-200-pound running back and they're treating him as a running back but he's a pass catcher they gave big money not huge money but big money for a backup aging 5'8 sub 200 pound running back um to jaylen richard gave him three or four million guaranteed to bring him back and he's a guy that josh jacobs himself at the fsga conference last year called the best route running running back he had ever seen and and richard's always been a very efficient pass catcher. They added Devante Booker was a third down and pass catcher by trade with the

Broncos prior to last season. He's basically Nick Chubb, very efficient runner, plenty of talent. I love the guy on the ground, but I don't think there is a case that he can catch a ton of passes. I don't see where that, that optimism is. There's two beat, right? I'll, I'll go back to what we talked about earlier today, earlier Monday show. Two beat writers have now suggested that they expect him to be more involved in the passing game.

And this is the story that I referenced on Monday. It's from The Athletic. It's Vic Taffer. Again, I apologize if I say his name incorrectly. He was asked, how do you see the split of touches in the backfield going this year? Will Jalen Richard and Lynn Bowden be primary third down back or backups, or will they give Jacobs a shot to show he's improved in his pass catching? And Vic writes, here's the story. I heard that Gruden was so mad last year that Jacobs didn't

win offensive rookie of the year. The third best rookie, Kyler Murray, did because he's a quarterback that he vowed that Jacobs would get more carries and more receptions to prove what a crime the voters had committed. Now, again, whether that's something that's going to come to fruition, this is a beat writer stressing at Paul Gutierrez, who covers the Raiders for ESPN also suggested that Jacobs will be more involved in the passing game. You mentioned Devante Booker. He's on the COVID reserve list already. They did sign Jeremy Hill.

Who knows if both those guys make the final roster, you know, are they going to carry five running backs, five tailbacks? I don't think that's going to be the case. You expect most likely that Hill doesn't make the team and Booker's guys played on special teams. He could play in the return game. So I think, again, looking at it, Lynn Bowden, rookie coming in, no offseason, converted quarterback.

Is he going to be a primary receiving downs back for this team? I don't see that being necessarily the case. Rashard is obviously an issue because he's been very good in that regard, but I don't think this is, this isn't about Jacobs going from 22 catches to 50. He's not going to do that. He's got to get to 30 to 35. I think that's where Nick Chubb is going to live. I don't think Derek Henry is getting there because we've seen that already.

And I don't think that's going to dramatically change. Maybe he gets to 20 or 25, but if Jacobs can get to that 30 plus threshold, then I think what he did as a rusher, he's got to do that again. I mean, that's clearly part of it. And if you protect him over 16 games, would have been fourth in carries, third in rushing yards. So he's got the ability to challenge for the rushing lead, similar to Henry, similar to

Chubb, because those are the two guys that challenge for the rushing lead. And that's kind of how I view him. So I'll say it again. They're all in the same kind of boat. It's non-pass catching running backs that are elite level rushers, at least to some extent, whether you believe that Jacobs or Mixon can get there or what Chubb or Henry showed you last year, that's how you have to play it if you're drafting those guys, especially in non-PPR and half PPR. Can they score double digit touchdowns? Can they do all those things? So I think Jacobs does take

that next step. Hopefully he's healthy. That's a big part of it too. He did miss three games with a shoulder injury, but I like the fact now that two separate guys and this story of this, in fact, is something that John Gruden himself has said that I'm going to hammer home the fact that this guy got robbed of what he should have maybe deserved. And we could debate, did he deserve it or not? We talked to him about it before the award ceremony during the Superbowl last week, or last year. So I like the optimism. I'm excited about him, and I would take him over Chubb and Henry for that matter.

And if you look at those four running backs, Mixon, Chubb, Jacobs, and Henry, can we say that Chubb is the only one that has real competition for carries? You know, like, obviously for catches,

they all have competition for catches, but Chubb's got Kareem Hunt in the backfield, and Kareem Hunt is better You know, like, obviously, for catches, they all have competition for catches. But Chubb's got Kareem Hunt in the backfield. And Kareem Hunt is better than Giovanni Bernard and Jalen Richard and Darrington Evans, I would assume. Right? That's a great point. But Chubb also caught 36 balls last year.

So everything Jamie just said, I think, was really useful information. I wasn't as aware that there were two beat writers this optimistic. Butubb jacobs had 20 catches last year and only 13 games but getting up to 30 to 35 is not just a small feat it's a it's a pretty substantial move forward it might happen but chubb had 36 catches last year he was already there yeah right what do you have him projected for because our i haven't for 25 i'm jumping, you know, which is a 25% increase from the 20 he had last year. But he was on pace for 25 last year. Four-line has him for 27. And I'm with Ben. He's got to take a bigger leap forward.

And I saw somebody tweet over the weekend, he didn't have a target on third down last year. You know, so it's not even like it was an obvious passing down that he had a target. So there, there's a, there's a big step that he has to get to, but if this is something and, and I know Vic has covered the Raiders for a long time, uh, Gutierrez has covered, uh, the, the Raiders for a long time. I don't know exactly what, what his, um, his, his reporting was, if it's the similar thing that Gruden has now made this maybe off the record to

to several of the raiders reporters but if this is something that he wants to do i mean we know he's a stubborn coach you know so and this this guy's got workhorse potential you know he's going to have an opportunity here to uh to be that caliber of running back so i i get the the pessimism i get the optimism and again it comes down to Chubb, Mixon, Henry, Jacobs, pick your poison. Yeah, and I just want to clarify. Sorry, Dave, but I just want to clarify. I just want to clarify. I don't think it's crazy to have Jacobs ahead.

I just thought it was interesting you guys both had him ahead so quickly. I only have Chubb projected for 28 receptions, so I have them very close. The only other thing I would say about these two in particular is touchdowns as well. I'm a little more optimistic on the Browns offense improving, and I think Chubb projects to score, I think, for a full touchdown more, which is kind of a lot in a projection. But I think he has the better touchdown upside. But you guys are right that Kareem Hunt is way more competition than anyone else has for the early down work. It's not even close. I don't even know if the Raiders have anybody.

Is Jeremy Hill the closest guy they've got for competition on first and second down for Josh Jacobs? It makes me wonder what are the Raiders going to do if Josh Jacobs does miss time? He gets a splinter and he's out for a game or something like that. How are they going to run the football it's a mess you didn't bring up the offensive line

i think their offensive line is better than cleveland's offensive line and they both have good downfield threats at receiver that are going to force the safeties back odell's certainly more established than henry ruggs but i think half the reason why henry ruggs was a raider was so they can open up all that underneath stuff. And that includes Jacobs catching passes out of the backfield and running between the gaps. I think he's going to have a very good year. All right.

I just don't want to spend too much time on Jacob's, but last thing, does anybody care about this? Jacob's played in five games last year in which the Raiders lost by 14 or more points in those games. He had 12, 10, 24, 11, and 17 touches. So that is three of those five games. He had 10 to 12 touches. He had 17 and one.

He had 24 and one. And that was a problem for him. So is that a big concern for you guys game script it matters to me that's again touchdowns and and and carries for this type of back you need to be running the ball and you need a team that's capable of putting you in scoring positions all right uh we got julio jones to talk about i think there is something a little concerning with julio jones maybe a couple things aaron jones we've talked about the concerns with him. One thing I'm not concerned about though, is saving money when I shop online. I have the Honey browser extension. I've had it for well over a year now and almost everywhere I shop now,

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yourself a solid, and you'll be supporting fantasy football today, which we'd really appreciate it. So get Honey for free at joinhoney.com slash FFT. joinhoney.com slash FFT. All right, Julio Jones. I think I had this stat a little bit wrong earlier in the year. Heath pointed it out, so I updated it. 12 games with Calvin Ridley. He had a 21.2% target share. That's pretty low for Julio Jones. Then Calvin Ridley got hurt, and in the last three games of the season, Jones had 30 catches, 378 yards, and two touchdowns.

I mean, that's a pace of over 2,000 yards receiving. So it was a little bit of a down year for Jones. I mean, you expect so much from him. But he still had 1,400 yards and about 100 catches. Jamie, what could go wrong for Julio Jones as he is now 31 years old? Well, you mentioned it. His yards were 1,394.

It's his fewest since 2012 while playing more than five games. His 14.1 yards per reception tied for the second lowest mark of his career. So, you know, if you're looking at it, maybe did he lose a half a step as he entered, you know, year 30, now year 31.

You said, you know, year 30, now year 31. You said, you know, basically a hundred catches, 99 catches. That was in 15 games. So he would have been over the a hundred catch threshold, but in the six games following Mohamed Sanu's trade, Calvin Ridley's numbers were better and Hooper missed some time in there, but I think it was like 17.7 PPR points per game for Ridley and like 14-something for Jones. So it's not like he was awful, but he was slightly worse. Now, we had Matt Ryan on CBS Sports HQ last week.

I asked him, you know, is Julio still at the top of his game? And his quote was, I certainly think Julio is still at the top of his game, at the top of his position in our sport. He is as good as there is week in and week out. He faces double coverage. He faces defense trying to to take him out of the game and he still produces. He's a hard worker. He's a good teammate. He's in selfish. He's everything you want from a superstar. We're lucky to have him. He's still rolling at a high level. Now you expect this

quarterback to say positive things about him, but I think based on where we all have him ranked, you have to expect some certain level of production where he's still going to be among the best wide receivers, most targeted on a team. That's going to throw the ball as much as Atlanta is going to throw it, leading the league in pass attempts last year. It's hard to overlook Julio if he's healthy, and thankfully so far he's healthy. Hey, Ben, I know you've talked about their offensive coordinator likes to throw the ball in his two stops now in Atlanta. I want to just tell you in the last eight games, the Falcons allowed 18.6 points per game. And they went six and two, I believe.

They had a dramatic improvement defensively. They still threw a lot, though. So do you think their defense is going to be any good? And if it is, do you think that's going to affect their passing? I don't really know that I buy into the defensive improvement in that smaller sample. I do know that I'm

not as concerned because, as you said, they still threw a ton and Cutter's sample is a lot larger, so I kind of feel like they will throw regardless of situation. I think the targets will be there. I'm not particularly concerned. My concern for Julio would be what Jamie said. Age is, did he lose a little bit of a step? You know, you, you noted it.

He had 38 targets and 30 catches in his final three games. Prior to that, he wasn't really pacing for, you know, a blow your socks off type season. And then, you know, the, the, there's obvious counters to all of that. I mean, he's Julio Jones. If his touchdowns, if he ever does have that 10 touchdown season that we've been waiting for his whole career, I mean, it'll be crazy. I know, and Dave, that's the funny thing.

His 12 games with Calvin Ridley, he was on pace for 92 catches, 1,355 yards, and five touchdowns on 145 targets. It's just, it's like, that's bad for Julio Jones? Do we have any, do you have any legitimate concerns, though? on 145 targets. It's just, it's like, that's bad for Julio Jones? Do we have any, do you have any legitimate concerns, though? I think he can be very productive. I think there's a reason why he's not a top one or two receiver in fantasy, like he used to be.

There's a little bit to look at where you get nervous about Julio because of Calvin Ridley and what his potential is. And you caught a big, big dose of that in those games that Jamie talked about after Muhammad Sanu left. But when everybody was on the field in Atlanta last year, and that's Julio, Ridley, Sanu, Austin Hooper, he was averaging first eight games, almost 18 PPR points per game. And he had over at least 15 in six of the eight games. I think that's what you should expect to sign up for is good consistency with maybe not as many smash games. Those 28 and 32 PPR point games. They came at the end of last year when Ridley wasn't playing. They'll probably be a little more, a few and far between this year,

but he'll still be good for your bottom line of fantasy. Aaron Jones is next in average draft position. And he was a, the number three running back in non PPR number two in PPR. And if he had just caught one more pass, then I wouldn't have to alter my 50 catch running back theories. But he had 49 catches and just a tremendous season. All right. So look, this is one that we've talked about basically since the NFL draft. It's not what could go wrong for Aaron Jones. It's how concerned are we about Aaron Jones? Pretty concerned. Touchdown regression figures to be the very first thing you look at. There were 20 games that he played,

or not 20 games he was in last year. Let's see. 16 rushing touchdowns, three receiving touchdowns in 16 games, and then another four touchdowns in two postseason games. So that's 18 games that he managed to stay healthy for, and he had over 20 touchdowns. You gotseason games. So that's 18 games that he managed to stay healthy for.

And he had over 20 touchdowns. You got to figure that comes down. And maybe that comes down to maybe he has 10 touchdowns in 16 games. I still feel like that's close to the ceiling for him. The team added AJ Dillon. That's somebody who profiles quite a bit as a short yardage freak. I think that he's, if that's the only role they give this rookie, it obviously hurts Aaron Jones.

And I don't know if Jones necessarily did anything to lose that gig. He was eight for 13 on goal-to-go carries inside the three. I don't think that's bad. He's going to be the lead back for Green Bay. We know Green Bay wants to run the football. He's a good running back. There are health concerns, and there are touchdown regression concerns and there are reception concerns because his reception totals were skewed when Devonta Adams wasn't playing.

Okay. That basically sums it up. I'll ask one more question. What is Jamal Williams' role and how much does he hurt Aaron Jones? I still think he's the second guy for now, you know, until Dylan gets up to speed and Dave's right, you know, short yard situations, that's not going to be hard for Dylan to pick up certain packages if that's what they have planned for him. But I still think if you look at it as a pass catching standpoint, you know, Williams may not be as good as Aaron Jones. He may be better than Aaron Jones. If he gets that opportunity, I also wouldn't be surprised if he's a trade ship, you know, knowing that he's a free agent after the season.

And if a team loses a back and they offer enough compensation, if the Packers jump at that and decide that they want to move Jamal Williams, but look, he's, he's been outplayed by Aaron Jones time and time again. And now there's another player there that could be, if not, should be better than him in Dylan. But, you know, not to mention the fact, you know, I know we talk all about, you know, Jones regression and Dave's right. You know, if he goes to 10,

it's still enough to keep him in play as a very good fantasy option, but it's going to be hard to justify taking him in the early part of round two, you know, where he's going, I think is fine in the back end around two. But they lost Brian Balaga too. You know, that's a big part of this. Their offensive line was great last year, and they lost a big piece. So is Rick Wagner the answer, and he struggled in Detroit? We'll find out. So I'm concerned about Aaron Jones.

There's a reason why I think all of us collectively are taking a guy who was as amazing as he was last year and putting him in this spot, but there's a reason for it i gotta say though if he regresses to 1350 total yards and 10 touchdowns and that is regression for him that's not too off of where we're putting projection numbers for some first round running backs so it really depends on how many touchdowns you think he's going to score i would love it if they traded jamal williams that would tell you think he's going to score. I would love it if they traded Jamal Williams. That would tell you everything that you need to know about how they feel about Aaron Jones.

And Jones would obviously be a huge factor on third downs. He played a ton of pass snaps last year. Didn't have a good grade as far as run blocking goes. It just feels like there are a lot of running backs there now. And there are. And Jones just doesn't feel like he's a safe bet for even 13 50 and 10 like I'm talking about the pass blocking is where they've always talked up talked about Jamal Williams and really liking him and Jones to me is just getting it from both sides he I don't think there's a

question about whether it's Jamal Williams or AJ Dillon I think they're going to be viewed very differently Jamal Williams has been this pass blocking passing downs guy to spell Aaron Jones now they've come and brought in a bruiser. It's a lot like what we've worried about with Jonathan Taylor, with Naheem Hines and Marlon Mack. It's like, I remember Kerryon Johnson's rookie year, he had Theo Riddick and LeGarrette Blount on both sides. And those old Saints teams that always had a power running back

and a pass catching back like a Sproles, you know, between this, you know, Pierre Thomas, who was their closest thing to doing both. There's a lot of teams that have used this three running back shuffle. And for me, Jones' price at this ADP is just too high when he's in the middle of this three running back shuffle. Okay. And if he did have 1350 total yards and 10 touchdowns, he basically would have scored about the same amount of fantasy points as Chris Carson did in non-PPR. I'm not even looking at catches, just

non-PPR. Chris Carson was RB 9 or 10. So that's what you'd be looking at with 1,350 yards and 10 touchdowns. But I don't think Chris Carson really felt like a second round pick last year, personally. He was really good, but I don't know. I feel like he could have done better in the

second round. So in order to get to emails and Apple podcast questions, let me do a couple of groupings here. Let's go with Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes, and then we'll do George Kittle and Travis Kelsey. But let's start with those two quarterbacks. They're mid-round two picks. What could go wrong for them? You know, Jamie,

when you look at Jackson and Mahomes, who has more risk? Who has more downside, more things that could go wrong? I mean, Jackson, just because of how he plays. You know, I mean, we've seen rushing quarterbacks, the injuries they sustain. And, you know, he was so, so amazing last year. But, you know, 1,200 rushing yards, to what degree it comes down, we don't know. But it's going to come down.

You know, he's not rushing for the same or more. You know, you hope for 1,000. you're hoping for nine to eight hundred uh in that range but if he loses four or five hundred yards off his rushing total for whatever reason then it's going to be really problematic he was so efficient with his limited pass attempts to lead the nfl in passing touchdowns with 36 um you know he's going to be awesome if he stays healthy but he's going to come down which is why you shouldn't draft him in the first round in one quarterback leagues and even round two is iffy as we saw last year and as we see you know you asked the trivia question about dst's repeating uh as

the number one year after year the number one quarterback year after year depends on where you look but drew brees is really the last one that has done it in 2011 2012 and six points for passing touchdowns and there's a reason for that. You know, it just doesn't happen. As we saw with Mahomes last year, banged up his ankle, banged up his knee, missed games. Numbers weren't the same. Worked out well for the Chiefs in the end. But that's the problem is these guys just, you know, teams,

I've said this a million times at the Pro Bowl. I did the story for our magazine, which is on newsstands now. I spoke to, you know, several defensive players and coaches, you know, what's, what's the way to slow down Lamar Jackson? I don't know, but that's what we're going to figure out was typically the answer, you know? And so they're going to go back and do everything they can to contain the team that was the best in the NFL. And the guy was the NFL MVP. And if they're able to contain him to whatever degree, it's going to be a little bit of a problem for him. So you should still draft him as one of the top quarterbacks.

But again, we'll tell you the reason they were so good on top of their performance was where you got them in drafts. They were both late round picks. Mahomes in 2018, Jackson last year. And that's what you're trying to shoot for every season is finding one of these great quarterbacks that can get late. It's hard to do, obviously, but if you hit, you're in great shape. Adam, one of these days, ask me for a history lesson on quarterbacks who have 25 passing touchdowns and 500 rushing yards in the same

season i know that we got to get going here but it applies to lamar jackson oh okay go ahead so you want to ask me now okay that's great so lamar was the ninth quarterback in NFL history to have 30. I said 25, but it's really more like 30 passing touchdowns and 500 rush yards in the same season. Huge numbers. All the previous eight did not finish top three the following year in fantasy points. Five of them were top 10.

They were good. They just didn't bounce back to that level that they were at the year before. And earlier this offseason, I thought that maybe not having They were good. They just didn't bounce back to that level that they were at the year before. And I, earlier this off season, I thought that maybe not having the off season program would hurt defenses in terms of getting ready for a guy like Lamar Jackson. But it turns out that these coaches, and I actually,

I got this from the Ravens defensive coordinator, Don Martindale. He had a press conference like a month ago that I was fortunate enough to be on. And he said, look, I've had more time than ever to watch film and break down guys and think of ways to scheme up against the offenses that we're going to face. I am certain that the Steelers, the Browns, the Bengals, everybody else that the Ravens

are going to play this year, they are all doing extra homework and extra film watching to try and implement a plan to slow down Lamar Jackson. It makes me worried about taking him number one. homework and extra film watching to try and implement a plan to slow down Lamar Jackson. It makes me worried about taking him number one. And frankly, I'm worried about taking him even I've got him ranked number two, but I don't want to take him even in early round three at this point. Ben, are you worried about the homes at all? What could go wrong for him? I think for both of them, for me, it's just that they're not on the level of their historic ceilings that they've both shown. I mean, my homes is the second quarterback ever to throw for 5050 dave just talked about how guys who run as much as jackson regress obviously jackson's in a different class

by running for 1200 yards only the second guy to ever hit a thousand um but yeah as far as my homes specifically it would just be like you know does he not hit that elite efficiency and that elite touchdown rate? I don't have a ton of concerns. The Chiefs are another team that threw a bunch, even when leading. I expect them to throw plenty. I don't think they're going to suddenly become a ground and pound team. And I expect Mahomes to be good. But it's just like, does he throw enough touchdowns?

Maybe they get defensive touchdowns. Maybe they get, you know, Nicole Hardman punt return TDs that put them in such good spots that they're not pressing as much as they need to. And Mahomes just doesn't get as many passing touchdowns as his ceiling clearly is. What does Clyde Edwards come in and be a, become a bigger part of the offense? That's what I was going to say.

I don't know that it does. Can't stop Edwards. Yeah. That's, that's as a pass catcher though. I mean, a huge part of what he is, if they wanted a ground-and-pound runner, they may have not taken Edward Solaire as the first back. Right. You know, I never got to... I don't think

I ever got to make this comparison, but I think this is really fun, because the guy that Mahomes kept getting compared to two years ago was Marino, right? Second year in the league, Marino throws for about 5,100 yards and 48 touchdowns. Mahomes is like 5 about 5,100 yards and 48 touchdowns. Mahomes is like 5,000 plus yards and 50 touchdowns. Second season, season after that,

Marino regresses, still leads the league in passing, by the way, but 4,137 yards and 30 touchdowns. And Mahomes, I don't know, how many did he have last year? He had like 28 or something like that. He missed some time. But he was worse. And also, Tyreek Hill got hurt. And also in 1985, Mark Duper missed half the season. So what happened in 1986? Dan Marino throws for 4,746 yards and 44 touchdowns. Which is a ton error adjusted, too.

Incredibly. Like, incredible season almost as good as his 1984 season but doesn't nearly get talked about as much and

I don't know why guys I just feel like Mahomes has a better chance of repeating his historic season than

than Jackson does oh for sure yeah alright I mean but but Jackson has the rushing ability.

I mean, he's two years in a row when he's been starting. He's been on pace for like almost 1,300 rushing yards. But in terms of historical ability, repeat historical performances, you've seen guys throw for 5,000 yards now on several occasions and in recent years. There's never been a guy that could go 3,000 passing, 1,000 rushing. There's only two guys that have gone for 1,000 rushing at that position. So it's just easier for anybody to say the one that's replicable is Mahomes.

And we've already seen Mahomes repeat it. I mean, he was hurt last year, but what he did in the playoffs, he went and won the Super Bowl and threw for 10 touchdowns in three games in the playoffs. I mean, we've kind of already seen that. And his three-game start last year was on pace to be better than his 2018 season. Yeah.

Yeah. Okay. Kittle and Kelsey. Man, it's hard to find anything to worry about with Kelsey. I don't know. I mean, the only thing I could come up with was, like, Mikko Hardman, Sammy Watkins, what we talked about with Tyreek Hill, that these other guys eat into the target share or something like that.

But you're talking about the number one PPR tight end four years in a row. Am I missing something, Dave? Nope. I think either injury, which we're not really counting here, or just heavy volume downfield to Watkins, Hardman, and Hill

would do in Kelsey. But defenses still have an impossible time defending him and Tyreek at the same time and Mahomes is just such a stud that uh that it's why he's a first round pick people love that safety they crave it and they know that he's got the track record behind it he's not a first round pick though he's second round and people what is it what is it right now yeah mid second round like 19 something like that. He should be a first-round pick.

Everything Dave just said is right. I think he's not because of positional, like perceived, you know, like the structural drafting concept that like there's a lot of depth at tight end and I don't want to lock up

that onesie position. Right. I think that's... I honestly, God, think it's the only reason he's not a late first-round pick right now. You're probably right. What about George Kittle?

What could go wrong there? Jordan Reed. No, I mean, you guys laugh, but I want to expand on this. His targets per route run last year was 31.4%. He was one of three guys last year that were over 30% targeted per route run. Andrews and tight ends. Mark Andrews and Higby were the other two. Those are the only three tight ends since PFS is PFS database goes back to in 2006. That got over 30%. So Kittle was the second highest rate of targets per route run for a tight

end in the last, you know, 16 or 17 years, whatever that is, 14, 15 years. I can't do math. But the issue for Kittle would be raw routes because they don't – he was like 10th in routes among tight ends. Kelsey and Ertz were 1-2. Kittle was way down there with Andrews. I think Andrews could expand, but Andrews has the health issue as well that causes a type 1 diabetes to a degree or has been rumored to cause it. Kittle's is because they leave him in as a blocker. He only averaged 24 routes run per game last year. He averaged 30

and a half per game in 2018. It's a legitimate concern. Will Kittle run enough routes? I think he's an amazing receiver. I think he's going to be amazingly efficient, but that's why my initial reaction with the Jordan Reed thing was even if that cost him two or three routes per game and a few more plays where they hold them in and they can send Reed out on a route, that's not good for him when he's already astronomically efficient and has to maintain these absolutely ridiculous targets per route rates and then yards per target rates as well, which are always really efficient. And his yak and everything else, he needs the routes. The way it goes bad for him is that he's not running enough routes.

And you know what else, Ben, is he was third in the NFL in yards after catch. And I think it's two years in a row where he's just been a stud. Maybe that's just part of it. I marvel at Kyle Shanahan's offense and how creative it is. But, you know, I don't know. Is that something that could regress significantly? And is that something that we can bank on? You know, hopefully we see some little spike in touchdowns.

I mean, he's never been a high touchdown guy. You know, that's always something that you have to be worried about. But he's just so good at what he does. I mean, it's just phenomenal to watch how he plays. And I know Ben is 100% right right. You know, that there, there could be a few routes, a few targets that go a different direction. We still have to see if Reed makes the team a stay healthy B you know, there's a lot of things that are obviously at play with Reed joining the roster. And I'll go back to what I said. I think it's more of an indication

that they just want pass catchers that they trust. You know, I mean, Reed, I think played for Mike Shanahan, you know, at the start of his career so there's a relationship there uh i i do think though with kittle that um you know the the run game is clearly such a big part of what san francisco does and how well he he's a big part of that as a blocker it's very identical to what gronk did at his career. Exactly. Gronk was scoring more touchdowns because of how he played in his offense. But, you know, Kittle is just, it's hard to get past him

as the second best tight end. And there are a lot of people that argue he should be the first tight end. All right. Well, I'm going to call that a day with the what could go wrong with the everyone is a bust. But let's wrap it up. Who's next? Miles Sanders, Kenyon Drake, Kenny Galladay, and Austin Ecklund.

We'll do Miles Sanders real quick because we had one of the guys from the Athletic on HQ today. I'll tell you what he said about Miles Sanders. All right, Jamie, let's go to Miles Sanders. So he, Shiel Kapadia, who covers the NFL for the athletic, uh, also has been around the Eagles for a long time. Um, he kind of piggybacked on the report of Deuce Daly saying that miles is the

guy. He said, there's no doubt about it that even if they bring it, he said, even if they bring in Devante Freeman, there's no doubt about it that miles Sanders role is locked in. He is going to be the guy for philadelphia no matter what this year and it was uh you know just it's again it's like similar to the raiders thing

it's it's encouraging when you're hearing multiple people coaches players uh teammates of sanders uh people who cover the team uh very clear that he's going to be the guy this is this is almost criminal that he's being drafted at this spot based on adp he's clearly a first round selection whether he goes as high as sixth overall or somewhere toward the back end of round one, that's clearly the debate, but he should absolutely be a first round pick. I think everybody who wants miles Sanders should start telling their friends.

Well, there's no way that Doug Peterson's not going to use an RBBC because he's always using our BBC and that's what he's going to do. And then you let Sanders fall right in your lap in early round two. One more thing, though. The catches. He was on pace for 67 catches in those six games

where he got a bunch of work. You know, Jordan Howard was out. Alshon Jeffrey played two of those games, and one of those games he had two targets. I think he left early with an injury, and that was it for his season. So this has been brought up. Greg Ward was basically the best wide receiver.

Looking back at the four years now for Doug Peterson, here are the catch leaders for the team among running backs. Sanders had 50. Boston Scott had 24 in 11 games. 2018, didn't have a 30-catch guy. 2017, I don't even think they had a 20-catch guy at

running back. 2016, Darren Sproles did have 52 catches in 15 games. But that hasn't really been a big thing, especially for a lead running back in this offense, to get a bunch of catches. Thoughts? 17 and 18 were the weird years because 17 was Sproles got hurt. They traded for Ajayi.

That was LeGarrette Blount was the touch leader early in the season. And then 18, Ajayi. That was LeGarrette Blount was the touch leader early in the season. And then 18, Ajayi gets hurt and it was Josh Adams and Sproles got hurt and they were just kind of piecing it together. But they always use a different guy. But that was, it's all circumstantial though. I mean, you know, people look at it and say

RBBC and committee and all this stuff. I think he's been searching for a guy. And one thing Shield brought up was this was the highest investment that they spent on a running back, second round pick. And so I think he's been searching for a guy. And one thing shield brought up was this was the highest investment that they spent on a running back second round pick, you know? And so I think that matters as well as that the draft stock of where miles Sanders was a year ago, plus the way he performed. Um, I don't think he's going to be in the Camara Christian McCaffrey range of, you know, 80 plus, but 50, I think is an easy number for him to get. If he stays healthy, you know, Boston Scott will get his, his catches as well. The one thing he brought up about this,

he said, one, don't expect to see as many two tight end sets if they have the healthy receivers because they're going to want to get three guys on the field. So that could hurt Dallas Goddard. Two, he said the speed that they'll have if everybody's healthy, if Deshaun Jackson and Rager play, Rager playing a significant role, Jackson staying on the field, that's just going to open things up underneath for those guys. And so I think that's where you hope for the creativity of doug peterson and again hopefully he's healthy dealing with the positive

coronavirus uh testing um but you know you just expect uh miles sanders and then with boston scott mixing in to be the the two guys but i i mean it's hard to it's hard to envision sanders if he's healthy no matter who they bring in being the lead guy to what extent who else they bring in that would determine it but as of now i mean he he should be locked into just a featured down role and double digit catches in six of his first eight games even when he was playing a smaller role so adam to your point about the past i think they use sproles that way but i think it was it's an indication that peterson's used backs as what their skill set is he didn't do it with blunt and he did it with sproles sand with Sproles. Sanders, even before he was, you know, even when he was only rushing three times in a couple of games,

he caught three passes in those games. They were using him as a receiver before he was the leadback. So are you saying he's a better pass catcher than LeGarrette Blunt? He's a little bit better than LeGarrette Blunt. Alright, let's rock and roll with some emails here. FantasyFootball at CBSi.com. Wait, who's after Sanders? This is from

Terrence. How's things, guys? after Sanders? This is from Terrence. How's things, guys? With a big smiley face. If you think it's worth some time on your podcast, could you discuss what makes an elite fantasy football player? I think he means like,

you know, us, not us, but you know, people who are playing fantasy football. People who play fantasy manager. There you go. Is it time spent

researching or correct valuations? Is it a great draft or waiver wire play? What separates CBS guys from the average big NFL fans? All right. We'll answer that question. Thank you, Terrence. All of the above.

People who are dedicated year round, they follow their favorite podcasts or their favorite analysts year round. Maybe they don't even have a favorite analyst or a favorite podcast. They just follow football news year round. They keep track of depth charts year round and they play the waiver wire and the late round draft game very well. That's the difference. Okay. And I think being willing to go out on a ledge as well, because there's that element where it's, um, I think the

best players will have strategies that can help them either win or could put them in a position to lose. But they're not going to be in the middle of the pack just chasing ADP and chasing strategies that everyone else is doing. They're willing to try unique things. They're also willing to make deals in season. There are a lot of fantasy managers out there. They don't want to make trades in the middle of the year. Sometimes that's the best thing you can do is take a position of depth on your team, find another team in the league that needs that depth,

and you swap a player or two players that make sense. People resist that. They shouldn't. Trading is a huge part of fantasy success. This is from Adam. I had the first pick in a 14-team PPR league. Who should I take? What?

No, just kidding. There's more to it. The playoffs start in week 13, which is Christian McCaffrey's bye week. Now who should I take? Still McCaffrey. Christian McCaffrey? Yeah.

I mean, I'm assuming there's byes in his league. I'd be trying to get the bye. Okay. Try to get the bye. Do, try to get the buy. Do well. You guys missed Heath just crapping all over Adam today with our flex draft over the weekend that Adam was gifted Christian McCaffrey

and still got a C grade on his draft. No, he gave me a B minus. So let's be fair. Yeah. Darren from a city east of Cape Town. Johannesburg? I was going to go with east Cape Town, but sure. What are your thoughts on Michael Pittman Jr. this year?

It feels like his connection with Rivers could be similar to what we have with Malcolm Floyd, Vincent Jackson, and Mike Williams. You're talking about T.Y. Hilton. Sorry, go ahead, Jace. I was going to say, yeah,.Y. Hilton. Sorry, go ahead. I mean, I was going to say, yeah, same thing. Hilton being out is going to help all those guys. I think he's a downfield threat that can run a few routes and be a big body in the red zone.

Wouldn't surprise me if he ended up with 40 catches and a high receiving average, maybe around like 575, 600 yards, something like that. Is that good? Maybe not so good. And like five, six touchdowns. Five-week replacement receiver. No name on this one.

Dave, give me a name and a city. Clyde from Overland Park, Kansas. Dear Andrew, Barry, Calvin, and Luke. He put in the email, these are Calvin, and Luke. These are, he put in the email, these are players who retired early. Now they're players who retired early. Andrew,

Barry, Calvin, and Luke, two lions. Why can't I figure out who Andrew is? Andrew, you knucklehead. Do you know who Luke is?

Luke Keekly. Luke Keekly. You know Luke Keekly. You don't know Andrew. You know, the night Andrew Luck retired, the Hurricanes lost to the Gators. So I have just completely blocked that.

We were on the radio and reacting live and it was not a fun night. But go ahead. What does this guy have to say? What is Josh Allen's fantasy ceiling? Assuming he can improve his completion percentage. Feels like he could have a massive year if this happens. The number one quarterback in fantasy.

Oh, I don't know about that. Well, I mean, where else could his ceiling go? I mean, we could say that for anybody. Derek Carr could be the number one quarterback in fantasy. I think he could be top five. Even if Allen takes a big jump as a passer, I don't think that Bill's offense will be conducive enough to him putting up the types of touchdowns and things.

They're just a slower run offense and they're a defense oriented team. McDermott, you know, runs that type of an offense. So, or that type of a team defense first. So I don't know that he has the gaudy number upside. This is from, oh, again, no name. Dave, who's this from? This is from Sarah and Sarah's from Tacoma, Washington. Dear Heath, Heath, Heath and name. Dave, who's this from? This is from Sarah, and Sarah's from Tacoma, Washington.

Dear Heath, Heath, Heath, and Heath. Sorry, Sarah. Wrong show. My home draft is next week. 10-team, half PPR. Pretty standard format. Two receivers. I'm drafting third overall. I am assuming that two of these players

will fall back to me in round two. Eckler, Drake, Aaron Jones, Mixon, Chubb, Hopkins, Godwin. Half PPR, 10 teams. Eckler, Drake, Aaron Jones, Mixon, Chubb, Hopkins, Godwin. Which two would you be least interested to draft in that spot? Probably the receivers. Not Aaron Jones? I thought he would be... Probably Eck receivers. Not Aaron Jones? I thought he would be...

Probably Eckler. Jones and Hopkins, maybe? Oh, I'm sorry. Hopkins and Eckler. Least interested in. Okay. This is from Max in a central Connecticut town.

Hartford. Hey, Brian, Dennis, Carl, Al, and Mike. Hey, Carl. Good to see you. I see Carl and Alan. I think of Carl Winslow. That's a lot of head coach names, isn't it? Maybe.

12-team, half PPR, one keeper. Chris Goblin in the fourth, Miles Sanders in the fourth, DJ Moore in the fifth. Oh my gosh, this is so hard for Ben Gretch. How many? Pick one. Godwin, Sanders in the fourth, DJ Moore in the fifth. I know who I'm taking.

I'm taking Sanders. Me too. I love those receivers. By the way Yeah. I love those receivers, but... Those, by the way, Brian, Dennis, Carl, Al, and Mike is a band. An old band. They play on the beach, and they are boys.

It's the Beach Boys. At Led Zeppelin. All right, from Sean. Sean? This is a long one. I don't think I really care to read this one. I'll do it anyway. I don't want to tease Sean. Sean? This is a long one. I don't think I really care to read this one. I'll do it anyway.

I don't want to tease Sean. Can we discuss thoughts on draft strategy? You're up in the draft and there are two guys on the board you really like. The site you're drafting on has the player

that you like the most a full round later. It looks like you could wait and get him or take him now and the other guy probably won't make it back. What do you do?

This is happening with me quite a bit this year at wide receiver. The side I draft on has Robert Woods over a full round after Terry McLaurin. I have Woods over McLaurin, and because I'm taking running backs early, I could use both to help a weaker receiving core. It's a gamble. You're playing chicken with everybody else in your league.

So you got to hope that if that guy um is is going to make it back to you we talked about this earlier when we were talking to Alvin Cook you know that I I had that choice in our magazine draft where I took Alvin Cook at five overall I wanted to make sure I got Alexander Madison it was round eight I was debating between Madison and Deontay Johnson I said screw it I'm going to take Deontay Johnson because I think he's got that type of upside. And it worked out well for me because Madison made it back to me in round nine. If you don't think Robert was going to get back to you, then make sure you get the guy you want because the last thing you want to do is spend an entire season watching that guy go off, especially on somebody else's team. But if you think you can make it work

because you know the people in your league follow the draft room follow the the projections or the rank list then that's how you you play it yeah it's a total sliding scale this is why i draft with tears every year so you guys i think i'm kind of known for reaching for guys that i like uh like dj more for instance i have him in a tier where to me he is clearly the last receiver available in that tier a lot of the time when i take him and i would have to be taking a guy full tier behind him, several ranking spots behind him, and then hoping that Moore gets back.

And if Moore doesn't make it back, that to me is a pretty significant hit to my team. Now, if you have Woods and McLaurin in the same tier and you just prefer Woods, but they're very similar, I have no issue at that point then. And I've been in that spot, taking the guy in the tier that I have ranked lower first. And then if I miss Woods, okay,

well, I still got a receiver that I think is lower first. And then if I miss Woods, okay, well, I still got a receiver that I think is comparable. All right. Uh, this last time in our flex draft, DJ more around three, Don Taylor around four, Will Fuller around six.

That's pretty great. I like it. I think you'd like it from Pete in Seattle. Pete basically is just about to get eviscerated by Ben Gretsch. Pete thinks that Marvin Jones should be ranked ahead of Stefan Diggs. Okay. I mean, you know, he's the pass volume. I've made the case with Jones that he's never been an alpha at any point in

his career, all the way back into college. He got dominated by Keenan Allen, who was a great prospect, but two years younger, came in and immediately stole the luster off of Marvin Jones as a performer in college. And he was that way in Cincinnati. He's been that way his entire Lions career. He's a very good, talented player. He makes a lot of very spectacular plays that I think stick in our heads. And he's done. He's had some positive games uh digs is a guy who as a college producer and then

immediately as a fourth round rookie i think or fifth round rookie got on the field with the vikings guys always outdone what was expected of him this is an alpha receiver he is a legitimate clear alpha receiver and in digsiggs' range of outcomes, yes, there's the potential that Allen's not good for him. There's not enough targets. I can see where it's possible Marvin Jones could beat him in the season. But Diggs is the one that has legitimate top five upside if they treat him like the Vikings never did as a true alpha at all depths of the field and all those things. All right, guys, let's finish up real quick with Apple podcast questions. This one's for Dave from Lapsided. Should I accept the following trade in a 10 team dynasty PPR league?

Give up Ryan Tannehill, Le'Veon Bell, Jarvis Landry, and a 2021 second round pick. Oh no, getting that. Sorry. All right. Getting Tannehill, Bell. You're getting that pile. Yeah. Landry and a 2021. That sounds like a big pile. This is the giveaway. Jonu Smith, Tariq Cohen, Brandon Ayuk, and a 2021 first round pick. I mean, if you're trying to lose this year and in future years, you make this deal. If you're trying to win at some point in your lifetime, pass on this trade.

Jamie, this is from WeRinga33. How much would you be willing to add to a Mike Evans package to get DJ Moore? Curtis Samuel, Darius Geis, David Montgomery, Alan Lazard are all people on my bench who could be an option. Would you package any of them with Mike Evans to get DJ Moore? I would imagine

most people like Mike Evans better than DJ Moore. So if you're in that type of league where the guy values more, more, then I would go as cheap as possible. But, you know, Evans and Geis should get that done if you really want DJ Moore that badly. And then, guys, we got a question about the top five safeties to draft in IDP.

Derwin James should be in there. Adam should be in there, absolutely. Kevin Byard. Is Harrison Smith still in that discussion? I think so. I don't know anything. I don't play IDP. Why not?

Ed Reed. Go get Ed Reed. Really? Is Earl Thomas in that category though? I don't. I don't know. The last time I played IDP,

it was Ed Reed, Eric Weddle. There were some good safeties back in the day. Bob Sanders was sweet. I can't even find, like, Landon Collins isn't in that anymore, right? I don't think so. I know safeties.

There we go. Doorknob. All right. We are out of here. Did we really answer the question? Yeah, I think so. Okay, review. I think Harrison Smith qualifies.

Eric Reed in Carolina. Is he even still there? Derwin James is number one, right? James is number one. I think Von Bell could be a sneaky one. I think Jesse Bates could be a sneaky one. Minka Fitzpatrick. Oh, that's a good one.

We suck. Surprise IDP question. Dustin Simmons. Okay. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. All right. One more Apple podcast question.

Who are the top 18 kickers this year? And would you roster two? Tomorrow on Fantasy Football Today, you will hear a live auction. I still don't know how much of it you're going to hear. You might hear three hours of it. I don't know. We'll see how it's going on the air

and determine how much we're going to hear. But if you tune into of it. I don't know. We'll see how it's going on the air and determine how much we're going to hear. But if you tune into Twitch at 3 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday, twitch.com slash FF today, you will see the auction. Stay tuned

for as much or as little as you like. I'd like to thank Dave, Jamie, Ben, and Ben. I'm Adam. Thank you all for listening. Talk to you tomorrow.