Fantasy Football Today - Fantasy Breakups! Are We Done With These Guys? (02/18 Fantasy Football Podcast)
Episode Date: February 18, 2026We've got news (4:35) on Mike Evans and Tyler Allgeier and then we get into our Fantasy Breakups List! These are players we believed in in 2025, but we are having second thoughts for 2026. Dave's list... (8:00) includes Marvin Harrison Jr., Xavier Worthy and a couple of Bills ... Heath's breakup list (22:40) has three players who may not get drafted in 12-team leagues depending on how the offseason plays out. What went wrong for Justin Fields, Deebo Samuel and Jerry Jeudy in 2025? ... Jamey's breakup list (30:00) has Christian McCaffrey, Justin Jefferson and Brian Thomas Jr. on it. Context is needed for all of these guys, but we talk about how things could go right for them in 2026 ... Email us at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Shop our store: shop.cbssports.com/fantasy SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 FOLLOW FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 SUBSCRIBE to FFT DFS on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dfs/id1579415837 To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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This is fantasy football today from CBS Sports.
What a play!
It's time to dominate your fantasy league.
Off to the races, and he stays on his feet.
Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.
It's Wednesday, February 18th, and we were feeling the love last week on Valentine's Day,
but today we are breaking up.
We are talking about fantasy breakups.
We were, you know, we were into these guys last year, but not this year.
changing our Facebook status, yes?
Can I just say that we did this completely backwards?
Why?
You're supposed to break up the week before Valentine's Day,
and then you're supposed to be declaring your love the week after Valentine's Day.
Save yourself a gift?
Save yourself a gift.
Okay, yeah.
Well, Jamie and I did this topic on FFT Express last week.
Like I said, we broke up.
Yeah, we didn't break.
We're still going strong.
And we liked it so much.
Let's do a full show out of it.
So some of the players would talk about today.
It was a great idea about you.
It was, yeah.
Well, it was Thomas's idea, and then it was Jamie's idea to do it for a full show.
So I take no credit for it.
But some of the players, I think, you know, are we really giving up on these guys, young, talented wide receivers?
Marvin Harrison, Jr., Brian Thomas Jr., two busts last year, Xavier worthy, a huge bust last year, not even a top 50 wide receiver.
Justin Jefferson.
That doesn't mean that we're not drafting these guys.
just will obviously explain the context.
Before we get into it, would you like to know,
Billboard just came out with a list last week
of the best breakup songs ever.
You ready for the top five?
I hope it's the stupid song you sang last week.
That's not a breakup song.
Oh, your version.
Oh, oh.
In full PPR.
Yeah, number five.
Yeah, we had a bunch of people listening
that broke up with the show because of it.
Number five.
I didn't know this was a breakup song.
Purple Rain by Prince.
Okay.
Number four, since you've been gone by Kelly Clarkson.
Number three, I want you back by the Jackson Five.
Is that a breakup song?
I mean, that's...
It doesn't sound like a breakup song.
It's a great song.
It's one of the best songs ever.
Number two, I will survive by Gloria Gaynor.
And number one, oh, I guess this was...
I didn't realize.
I didn't realize this was a cover.
Well, it became a cover.
Dolly Parton, I will always love you.
I knew the Whitney Houston version.
I didn't know Dolly Parton did that song.
Did you all old folks know that?
Yes.
Yes, no.
Heath.
I'm not sure.
I'm just shocked that Taylor Swift wasn't on the list.
Let's see if Taylor Swift has one out here.
Because they did top 100.
Yeah, she's on here.
She's number 60.
We are never, ever getting back together.
Give me a break.
That's on here and all too well is number 12.
Oh, man, that's bad.
Okay.
The song should be on there.
Do you have a breakup song in mind there?
Ooh, la, la, you know that song?
I wish that I knew what I know now when I was younger.
By the faces, that's a great breakup song.
Much better than we will never get back.
We are never ever getting back together.
Give me a break, Billboard.
Okay, welcome to the show.
Not a lot of news and notes.
Mike Evans says he's going to.
return for the 2020-26 season.
He intends to test free agency.
Heath, Mike Evans, or Tyreek Hill, if you were drafting today, they went almost back-to-back
in our latest mock.
I'll go with Mike Evans.
I mean, he's at least healthy right now.
Anyone disagree?
I agree.
I agree. I'm there.
Okay. Josh Kendall of the Athletic does not think that the Falcons will bring Tyler
Al Jir back.
Dave, is that big news?
I think it means that Alger will probably end up somewhere else where he will be a 1B running back,
but it doesn't mean that we're out of the woods with Bijan being a massive war course runner.
They'll add somebody else.
This draft is full of 1B running backs.
So I would expect somebody to be there.
Hopefully it's not somebody who's as physical as Alger, and that'll lock in Bijan to every single touch in short yardage goal line situations.
That'll only enhance his value.
How about, let's say, like, Jerome Ford follows Stefanski from Cleveland.
Right.
So, like, that's an example of why I wouldn't be afraid of.
So I wouldn't be afraid of Ford taking away goal line opportunities.
I wouldn't be afraid of Ford at all, but, like, you know, that's the type of player.
Ford could take away some targets.
Like, leave Bijon alone.
Just go get somebody that, you know, you trust and just case, break glass case of emergency, but leave Bijjan alone.
I think you see Bijan more in the short yardage and the tight end takes away some targets.
Oh, maybe.
By the way, you all remember the viral video, Leave Bijon alone.
One of the best.
No, anybody get that joke?
No.
You don't remember Leave Brittany alone?
No.
But what?
Really?
Leave Britney alone.
You don't remember that?
I remember that.
I just don't know how it relates to Bejohn.
Because he said leave Bijon alone twice.
Oh, okay.
Unironically, he said that.
You know, he didn't even know about the Leave Brittany alone.
All right, Heath, what's coming up on FFT Dynasty?
What's coming up?
Yeah.
So we just had Dave Kluge on yesterday to talk about the state of the running back position.
We've already done quarter wreck and tight end.
On Friday, we'll be talking wide receivers, just kind of breaking down where everything stands,
what we think of the free agents, who the top 12 or top 24 are at each position,
and a little bit on the rookies.
But we've got a lot more on the rookies coming up in the next couple of months.
Cool.
Tuesdays and Fridays?
Tuesdays and Fridays.
11.30 Eastern on YouTube.
Okay.
Yeah, you can watch it on YouTube.
YouTube.
com slash fantasy football today
or you can subscribe to the podcast
anywhere you listen to podcasts.
Okay, let's go to our topic here.
Fantasy breakups.
How about Riloh Kylie?
Are we breaking up?
Dave, are we breaking up with Marvin Harrison Jr.
And you've got Xavier Worthy
and two bills, Dalton Kincaid,
and I think you broke up with Keon Coleman a long time ago.
Like week five, I broke up with Keon
Coleman. I don't know if we need to get into that anymore.
I don't know if Joe Brady is breaking up with Keon
Coleman Coleman anytime soon, but
we don't need to talk about him. And we talked a lot
about Marvin Harrison yesterday, Tuesday's show.
So I just kind of wanted to double down on this. Here's some
numbers for you. He was 36th in targets per game,
39th and PPR points per game, 33rd
in consistency. Three games last year
with 15 or more PPR points,
11 and 29 career games, 7 in his last
21. He got off to a decent start in his career.
and then it has not been great since.
And just rehashing the point from Tuesday.
This is a new coaching staff.
They're going to have new ideas on how they're going to use these guys,
but it doesn't mean that they're going to care about Marvin Harrison
being an early round one pick for the Cardinals once upon a time.
They can repackage him.
They can use him in a different role.
They can make it where he's third on the totem pole in terms of targets if they want to,
but I don't think there's going to be the same type of emphasis on him getting to
the eight target per game mark.
I saw him going round five in our most recent mock.
I think that's going to be the absolute earliest.
We will see him go in drafts come August.
Marvin Harrison Jr.
We're talking here.
Do you have an azer stat on Marvin Harrison Jr.?
I do.
Oh, yeah.
I have plenty.
Good.
He's a very azerstatable player.
Sure.
Yeah, but it's not even that good.
So he played 12 games, Marvin Harrison, Jr.
He had four games in which he played 61% or fewer of the snaps,
three games in which he played 51% or fewer of the snaps.
I usually use 50%, but I was generous with Marvin Harrison Jr.
I took out the game where he played 51%.
So let's take a look at his nine games where he played 60% or more of the snaps.
It's not that bad.
It's not that bad, especially because he scores touchdowns, right?
How many of those are with Brescette?
Five.
Five were with percent, maybe four.
Those are the only ones I care about.
Well, okay, fine.
But even still, the 17-game pace,
in his nine healthy games,
72 catches,
1,062 yards,
8 touchdowns on 127 targets.
Very usable player, not great,
but certainly someone you're going to have.
Five games he played with Jacoby Preset,
5.2 fantasy points at the Colts,
7.8 against the Packers,
destroyed Duran Bland and the Dallas Cowboys,
22.6 fantasy points on Monday night football.
Then the next game, he had 12 targets at Seattle,
three catches 33 yards and a touchdown,
but he did score 14.3 points.
And then I think one of the more encouraging games was the 12.9 fantasy points at Tampa Bay
when he had come back from injury and he only played 61% of the snaps in that game.
And that's three good games out of five with Jacoby Reset.
But guys, can I tell you, so since we're breaking up today, can I tell you a stat that I'm in love with right now?
I was just looking at this.
How about, look, I'm going to display it on the screen here.
Screen passes.
Okay, whoops, I deleted it.
Screen passes for wide receivers over the last two seasons.
Marvin Harrison Jr. has two.
Khalil Shakir leads the way with 56, but look at the best, right?
Look at Puka, 39, JSN 37, Jefferson, 36, Chase 36, Flowers, 36.
There's such easy ways to get fantasy points, screen passes.
And over the last two seasons, in his career, Marvin Harrison has two.
Now, you can be good without this.
T. Higgins has zero in the last two years.
Drake London, I think, has three.
Mike Evans has two.
A.J. Brown has three.
But, you know, these are outside receivers who are winning their one-on-ones,
who are, you know, doing a lot of things that Marvin Harrison Jr.
just hasn't been doing right now.
And they don't give him any easy targets.
He's almost never in motion.
He almost never goes to the slot.
That profile, by the way, very similar to Drake,
London in his first two seasons, which were very disappointing.
Season's three and four for London, more motion, more slot, better production.
So you got a new coach coming in.
Will he use Marvin Harrison differently?
But is Harrison even good enough or is he just kind of slow?
A lot of questions here, a lot of questions here.
I've talked a lot.
So go ahead, Dave.
You see Pukukua fourth on this list.
And Mike LaFleur is now the head coach in Arizona.
does Mike LaFleur view Marvin Harrison in the same lens as he did Pooka Nakua?
I don't think you can do that.
Then let's just look at Adams and let's take away 2024.
I have no idea what the answer is,
but let's see how many screen passes Devante Adams had.
Adams had in 2024?
2025.
He only had one.
Okay.
But he was in the slot 30.
Is that who Marvin Harrison is?
like I would ask Jamie and Heath this question.
Who do you think Marvin Harrison profiles more closely to between Devante and Puka?
Oh, Devante for sure.
Yeah.
You agree, James?
Nothing like Puka.
Devante.
I would lean Devante as well just because it's current day, Devante, not Devante Adams from four plus years ago.
Because Devante isn't quite as explosive, but he's a good route runner.
I still think Marvin Harrison's a good route runner too.
I'd be surprised if all of a sudden Marvin Harrison became Devante Adams in the Arizona offense and became their red zone weapon.
Oh, I think he'll for sure.
That's what he's been so far in his career is the red zone weapon.
But they've got a bunch of guys who could fill that role.
It's not just him.
And listen, the Rams obviously had a bunch of guys that filled that role as well.
But will it be to the same extent?
And I don't think the answer is yes to that question.
So I'm, I would be, I think I'm going to be able to easily find.
bind 24 wide receivers I'd rather draft than Marvin Harrison, Jr.
At this point, we'll see what the Cardinals do, what improvements they make,
et cetera. Of course, that's going to come into play.
But Marvin's somebody that I'm not going to be nearly as excited about drafting as I was
when he was a rookie and as a second year receiver.
Oh, and the last thing, just the comment about him not getting those screens,
the follow-up question would be Adam, and you can look this up if you want to, if not, I will.
How were there receivers that got lay-up targets?
in Arizona. And if there weren't, what does that mean for Detroit's offense now that Drew,
not Chris Petzing, is the play caller for them? The answer is no. Michael Wilson had two screens,
two screen targets last year and Marvin Harrison Jr. had two. They all went to Tray McBride.
I'll try to look at how many Tray McBride had. I don't see a side-in screen option here.
But yeah, I'll see if that was a part of their offense at all.
Okay, let's take a break here, and I want to talk about Xavier Worthy, who, you know, I was very excited about, didn't work.
Why can't I find tight end screen?
Maybe, Dave, you can look this up, but.
Yeah, sure.
I got, I got, if you, you know, I got 24 screen passes for Trey McBride.
So there you go.
Somebody got some screens in any other tight end in the NFL.
I only got, for Bowers, only have two about that.
Well, that's normal.
I only played three games.
Anyway, we'll be right back to talk about Xavier Worthy and Justin Fields and Jerry Judy and more after this.
Xavier Worthy was a fifth round pick for us last year in our drafts.
And in the draft that we just did, he went in the fourth round, which was a mistake.
Dave's got him on his breakup list.
Is anybody, Jamie Heath, before I let Dave talk about Worthy, do you guys have hope for a bounce back season for Xavier Worthy?
No.
He's currently not in my top 60 wide receivers.
Wow.
All right, so we can make it quick then.
Go ahead.
Yeah, he had 15 PPR points in six games.
He won in 2025.
He ran 90 fewer routes.
His targets per game went down by 6.0.6 targets per game.
His yards per route run was the same as route depth was up a yard.
His A dot rose.
His explosive catch rate rose.
and his drop rate was cut in half.
He didn't have anything in the touchdown apartment.
He only had one touchdown.
His red zone targets crashed.
I went back and watched some of his biggest plays from last year.
One of the four biggest catches he had involved deep speed.
Everything else involved him doing something else to get open or busted coverage.
And if Rishiris is back, Kelsey's back, maybe they add something else to this passing game.
what role does Xavier Worthy have?
And I think it justifies what Jamie said,
that he shouldn't be a top 60 wide receiver.
I'm not quite there yet with Xavier Worthy,
but he's not going to be a top 36 wide receiver.
Going in round six, I think is pretty silly,
much less round five or round four.
If we define deep balls as 20 or more air yards,
over the last two seasons,
there have been exactly 100 wide receivers
with 10 or more deep ball targets.
Worthy, I think, is about 35.
Of those 100 wide receivers with 10 or more deep ball targets,
Xavier Worthy ranks 90th in yards per attempt.
He's been terrible on those two straight years,
and some of it honestly is Mahomes.
Mahomes's been really bad throwing the deep ball.
I watched all of these deep ball targets again today.
Some were not, he wasn't even open.
One, he was wide open for a long touchdown,
and Mahomes missed him by a mile.
And there were several where Mahomes just missed him by a mile.
So it's just a bad, they have a bad connection.
All right, Dave, two bills, Keon Coleman and Dalton can take.
I think just one thing unworthy in the event of a potential Rashi Rice suspension again.
Yeah.
That might change things.
But we had that last year.
How did Worthy do in those games?
Yeah.
They got hurt.
He had three games without Rishi Rice and he had, I want to say eight or more targets
and two of them.
So he didn't do that well for whatever reason.
He was coming back from an injury.
but in terms of just target volume,
it's not even close.
It's a huge difference
when Rishi Rice didn't play.
Huge difference.
Obviously,
that's a factor that'll come into play.
There's no reason to talk about Keon Coleman anymore.
So let's just focus on Kincaid,
who I took in round 11 in our most recent mock draft.
And I'm okay with that because that's not a lot of serious draft capital to spend on a tight end.
Who really became touchdown dependent last year.
It was his best year in fantasy,
11.3 p.pr points per game,
despite 4.3 targets per game.
That's kind of gross,
and that's really what it comes down to.
He's had a career where he's had chances.
He's had a lot of volume,
22 of 41 career games with six plus targets,
and 17 career games with at least 11 ppr points,
but he needs the touchdowns.
And I don't want to trust.
I don't want to raise him up the tight end hierarchy
just because he's coming off of his best year,
just because the play caller is now the head coach,
just because Josh Allen's quarterback,
this is a team that I expect to make some significant changes
in their passing offense this offseason.
Stop me if you've heard that one before in Buffalo.
And I think it'll lower the upside for Dalton Kincaid overall.
Plus he's an injury risk on top of it.
I'm not sure if he's had even a 17 game season yet in his life.
Let's see if I have this list here.
This is, well, I'll just tell you,
Dalton, Kade.
there's always encouraging stuff with him,
but it's just never enough actual production.
2.7, 4 yards per route run led the position by a mile.
Number two was Tucker Kraft at 2.27.
So he had a good year, but yeah, I understand just not enough.
It doesn't play enough.
Yeah, he missed at least four games each of his last two.
Even when he's, well, even when he plays, he doesn't play enough.
Right, that's what I meant.
Yeah.
Under 40% of the snaps, I think in his last eight games.
Right.
Perfect.
end of the draft tight end. So maybe I'm not breaking up with Dalton Kincaid in that way. Remember,
where were we drafting him last year? We were drafting him pretty high. But he's always hurt.
Last year was late. Two years ago, Tyne. Okay. He's always hurt. And he's always, you know, he's had
these injuries, dealt with these injuries each of the last two years. And I think there was a time
before, in 2024, before his injury, two knee injuries that year. He's actually playing a decent
amount. So I wonder if he's kind of guy like, oh, first few games of the year,
Dahl the Kincade is playing 75% of the snaps. This could be big.
Well, I think there's some encouraging things. First off, we don't know what Joe Brady's plans are
because he's now, you know, taking control of the team, let alone, you know, changing the
offense to whatever degree he wants to. I also think you're going to see Dawson Knox as a
cap casualty. So that will hopefully help some things for, for Kincade as well. Clearly, as
Dave said, there's changes coming
personnel-wise because they can't
continue with the same receiving core.
Whether it's draft, trade,
free agency, you know, something's going to have
to change with this
personnel here. But I do think
when you look at it, I believe almost half his games were 12
or more PPR points. A lot of his, Dave said, was touched
on independent, but when he was
playing, he was a fairly productive fantasy
tight end. He certainly returned good value for
where you got him last year or when you were
using him.
But yeah, I think, you know,
you are talking about somebody that you settle for as opposed to reach okay heath you are up your
breakup i think i took this a little bit more literally than dave did not like there's anybody that
i drafted in our last draft that's on my breakup list maybe not anybody that anybody's going to draft
at all but uh just turned into a highlight the guys he was really wrong about last year jerry judy
was absolutely awful the browns are going to hopefully add an actual wide receiver one justin fields
was awesome for fantasy when he got to start,
but I think the NFL's decided he doesn't get to start anymore.
So it doesn't matter how good he is for fantasy.
And Debo Samuel is an older wide receiver who really,
he has to land in a place where he's going to get rushing work
and be used in a very specific role.
And now that he's a free agent, we have no idea if he'll get that.
Okay, great. Let's go to Jamie now.
I was very good.
I think it was one of our shows during Super Bowl weekend.
It might have been McCaffrey talking about he'd welcome Debo Samuel back to San Francisco, which would be interesting.
One of the things for Debo is he only had one carry per game last year, all right, 17 carries and 16 games.
So they just didn't use him that way.
Usually he was closer to three carries per game with San Francisco, but he's just not the rusher that he used to be.
He also got off to a pretty good start.
Then he had a heel injury and everything went downhill for Debo.
And he's, what is he going to be 30, right?
Or 31?
Yeah.
He is already 30.
So he's not.
He's not too old.
Right.
So, I don't know, are you hopeful that the injury was the reason for his struggles?
I mean, I don't know that based on what his cost was last year, that struggles is even the right term.
Like, he probably gave you enough value for what he cost last year.
It's just that, like, the injuries have been a concern throughout Devo's career.
The efficiency has been below his career marks in yards per catch and yards per
target each of the last two years.
And as you said, he didn't get quite as much rushing work in Washington.
And I think anywhere he goes from Washington, there's a risk that he gets even less.
He had 7.4 touches per game in his first five.
And then 4.7 touches per game the rest of the way.
How many of those first five did Terry McLauran miss?
Two.
But he was still, I mean, Adam said it.
Like he was on fire to start the year.
It was like four of his first five games with 17 plus PPR points.
And then probably the injury more than anything else is what really did him in.
But obviously, Jane Daniels missing time, hurt and just the offense in general not being that great hurt Debo Samuel a little bit.
But he's going to need to thread the needle of significant role, good offense, good volume in order to be a semblance of his former self.
So I think he belongs on the breakup list for sure.
It probably won't be me, but I could see people getting excited about him if he goes.
to a Buffalo or a Las Vegas or Tennessee or one of these teams that are lacking receivers.
And, oh, look at this opportunity for him.
I just don't know if he's that type of receiver.
You know, like he's going to be that type of guy that you say,
okay, this is a guy you can not necessarily build your offense around,
but, you know, feature enough that is going to be successful.
Like he's certainly more, and has been for a while, more of a complementary option than a lead guy, you know.
So just be careful if he's, you know, this is our only addition.
type of guy. Yeah,
Debo Samuel has only had one year in his career
where he's averaged more than 60 receiving yards per game.
And some of that is he's constantly leaving games with injuries,
but that one year, man,
what, we had a 1,400-yard season.
What a year for Debo Samuel.
Okay, I want to talk about Jerry Judy.
He's such a fascinating player,
and I want to just bring up his profile on True Media
and take a look at his yards per route run.
I'm sorry, having a little bit of trouble.
Oh, I know why.
Thomas, I forgot.
You have to remove the graphic.
I'll do that.
My bad.
All right, I'm not so good at adding things to stream yard.
Here we go.
So this is Jerry Judy.
Should I zoom in or is that okay?
Good, fine.
I would zoom in.
All right, we'll zoom in.
All right, let's look at his yards per route run.
I mean, pretty solid.
If you're over two, that's amazing.
But 1.6 range, that's good.
His yards per out run, Jerry Judy in his career,
1.66, 1.6, 1.6, 1.6, 1.73.
Last year, 1.02.
It was just horrible for him, but he's a better player than that.
He's had two really impressive seasons from a fantasy standpoint, 2022 and 2024.
And I don't know, Heath, you're breaking up with him, I get it.
But is there a scenario where you could see Jerry Judy, who still is, I think he's like 27 or something.
He's not old at all.
You know, could see him becoming a fantasy starter again.
I mean, I think in a three-wide receiver league, it's possible, but highly, highly unlikely.
The one thing you have going in your favor is he is due for another good year because he's basically been better every even year, better in 2020, 2020, and 2024 than he wasn't any of the odd years.
So I think he's due for another good year.
And look at that explosive play rate.
I mean, he's always been good at making big plays, 18% or higher every year of his career, 8.5% explosive play rate this year.
year. And you'll also notice career low slot rate, 13.3% had never been below 31% in the slot. So
everything was wrong for Jerry Judy. Did he get drafted? He did round 13. So he went right before
Tank Dell, Pat Bryant, Rashid Shaheed. All right, Jerry Judy needs to prove it. Very strange
career for Jerry Judy. All right. We good? Anything else you want to say?
Cool. I mean, I did have this one wild thought is there was some talk that Justin Fields might get cut by the Jets.
Yeah.
I guess if Todd Munkin said, you know, I could probably run a similar offense to what I ran with Lamar Jackson with Justin Fields.
And I don't have a quarterback anyway. And he ended up in Cleveland, then I might get too excited about him again.
That would be crazy to go with Chador, Gabriel, and whatever's left of Deshaun Watson coming back.
that would be,
let's just throw Justin Fields in there, too.
Justin Fields scored 29 or more fantasy points
in three of his first four games.
Two of them were Miami and Dallas.
I was on top of the world.
Yeah, and then.
I'll say it's 10 million bucks if they designate them
a post-June first cut.
My 16-year-old said to me,
we were talking about this last night
because we were heading home from basketball practice
and I saw your text.
And so I was trying to think of the guys
that I was going to send in.
I said, Justin Fields,
He said, you liked him last year?
Yeah.
I said he was great for fantasy last year at the beginning of the year.
He said, I know.
He was my QB1 because you liked him.
But then he also said, he's like,
the Jets were terrible anyways.
Why didn't they just play Justin Fields?
Because it was more fun.
I don't know.
He could go out and have a decent game
and it just never seemed to be a decent game for,
obviously good for fantasy.
But I remember the Patriots game.
I really thought he played well in the Patriots game.
That was his last game.
And it was a really good defense.
he scored 21.3 fantasy points
and Aaron Glenn just never,
I guess he just wasn't running the offense
they wanted him to run it.
Aaron Glenn never seemed very happy.
All right, Jamie.
What was the offense they wanted to run?
Does anybody know that answer?
No, they don't want to run it anymore.
You got some big names on this list, Jamie.
Fantasy breakups, Christian McCaffrey.
Not because we're mad at him for last year.
But Justin Jefferson and Brian Thomas Jr.,
were mad at them for last year.
Neither of them were top 40 wide receivers
per game, except for Jefferson in PPR.
He was closer to 30.
He had a lot of catches.
But it was 39 and non-PPR, 31 in full PPR per game.
But neither of them were top 30 per game.
I can say that.
So it's McCaffrey.
Justin Jefferson and Brian Thomas Jr.
Let's put a little context on it first with Christian McCaffrey.
Yeah, obviously it's a lot of red flags that he's, you know, going into 2026.
going to be 30 in June, coming off another season with 400 total touches.
It's very similar to the Sequin-Barkley conversation we had at this point last year,
where I was concerned about what the production would be coming off of all this work.
Now, thankfully, Seekwon stayed healthy, but clearly there was a decline.
Well, we've dealt with this with McAfrey already.
It was two years ago.
He was coming off a season with over 400 total touches.
He was only 28 at the time, or turning 28 at the time,
and only played four games due to injury.
So it's just tough to say that he's going to be as successful again.
Now, clearly, if you say you look into your magic eight ball at him and we get, you know,
13 plus games out of McAfree, I think everybody will say, okay, I'll buy into that because
of what he's able to do.
Now he's different because of what he does with his touches because they're not all carries.
They're clearly involved in, he's clearly involved in the passing game.
But you are talking about an offense that's going through a lot of turnover here,
receiving cord that's a mess, tight end that's banged up, offensive line that still needs
some work. Older Trent Williams, who's been such a force and arguably the best left tackle
of his generation. There's just a lot of things that are changing here for McCaffrey. And so
he's still going to be a first round pick. I'm still going to rank him as a back end of the first
round pick, but I don't think I'm going to draft a lot of Christian McCaffrey. Now, my back happened
to be looking, I won't say whose it was, but I happen to be looking at somebody's rank list that
they sent into us in Week 8th, there's nobody here. Still at McCaffrey is the number one overall
pick. Like, I just can't get behind him even as, not even a top three running back, I think. I think
I have A. Chan ahead of him and maybe Jonathan Taylor also, but certainly Bejan and Jemir Gibbs.
Like, it's just tough to buy into all the data that we get with these guys when they hit this
age with this workload. And then you factor in his injury track record. Like, it's just tough
because he's been so special. I think that the hard part is, because I certainly, I wouldn't rank him
that high, but when I just finished up my projections process, you can go to CBS sports and look
at the way too early projections for the guys that at least have a team right now.
And if you just go through kind of a standard projection process of what have these guys done
and project 17 games for everybody, well, Christian McCaffrey is so obviously the number one
pick. It's not even close. And so how much do you factor in all the things that Jamie said that we
probably do need to worry about with him? I think he probably ends up going mid-round one in all
drafts and I'd feel a lot more comfortable with them into round one.
I do think, you know, and this is the next thing to keep an eye on.
You know, I was thinking about this when you said Al Jare.
They don't have a, I mean, they have Garando, I guess.
So Brian Robinson Jr. is a free agent.
So that next guy could be huge.
Like, do they sign someone?
Do they draft someone?
Do they stick with Garando?
Do they try to go the, you know, retread veteran route like they did with Robinson?
And like that next guy could be one of the most important picks in fancy.
Wasn't there a report out that they have big plans for Jordan James?
That could be a guy.
Who knows?
I didn't see that, but sure.
So I think when you, let's compare McCaffrey and Barclay.
Okay.
And what went wrong with Sequin Barclay?
His yards per carry was a lot worse.
The explosive plays were gone.
And I think if you, and they were like astronomical in this 2000 yard season.
I think if you look at McCaffrey, though, he averaged 3.9 yards per carry.
He hardly ever had any 20-yard runs.
So it's not like he's going to have an efficiency drop, whereas I think that was fairly easy to forecast for
Sequin Barclay, not to this level.
Also, the Eagles were just a mess.
The 49ers offense, it could happen.
I mean, their offensive line isn't what it used to be, right?
But it's hard to forecast them having a drop off the way the Eagles.
did, but it could happen.
I guess what I'm saying is with Barclay, he did stay healthy.
His problem was performance.
With McCaffrey, all he has to do is stay healthy.
I don't think he's going to be less efficient than he was last year.
And he only had 10 rushing touchdowns in 17 games.
It's really not that much.
So he just has to stay on the field if he can just repeat his efficiency.
I don't think there's anything from a performance standpoint that is out of line for McCaffrey.
is there?
I think one thing with all the injuries they had last year, and George Kettle missed several
games too, but especially at wide receiver, I don't know that we can count on McCaffrey's
role in the passing game being quite as big as it was last year if they make the significant
additions in the passing game that we expect.
Yeah, that's a great point.
To that point, he averaged under five catches per game, 22, 23, and 2024.
He only played four games in 2024.
Last year, he averaged six catches per game.
So now we're dialing back his receptions per game by a third.
And the numbers will follow.
It's difficult to take him as the number one overall player.
Let's see if we still feel that way by August.
And Debo would probably be like,
Debo, I'm not trying to say he'd probably be a bad thing for McAfrey because they
would probably use him in similar places where they used McCaffrey last year.
Yeah, there's 20 players that they could add that would be bad for McAfry.
But it would be good for the 49ers.
You don't think the 49ers are sitting there in Santa Clara next to their
electromagnetic station or substation, whatever the hell it is, saying we need to get
some work off of this guy if we want to keep them healthy for 17 games.
That report comes out about the facility, and they have two games now internationally.
But they're not both home games, are they?
One was.
One's got to be a home game.
They're not going to lose two home games internationally.
No, but the road game they lose, they might have a week where they get to practice away from the...
Right, the weeks out of the...
They'll practice in Australia before Australia.
Okay, guys, we're going to take a break, and when we come back, we'll talk about two awesome receive.
Well, one amazing receiver, one guy who had one of the best rookie seasons we've ever seen,
and why Jamie's got them on his breakup list.
We'll be right back.
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Justin Jefferson, wide receiver 39 per game in non-PPR, 31 per game in full PPR.
Brian Thomas Jr. Not as good. Wide receiver 46 per game in
in both formats.
And after the Jacoby Myers trade,
the last six games of the season
for Brian Thomas Jr. weeks 13 through 18
as he missed the first three games with Myers,
he was on pace for only 88 targets.
Brian Thomas Jr. had a 16.6% target share
in that stretch with Jacoby Myers.
And by the way, Parker Washington
wasn't even playing a full snap share
in some of those games.
So, Jamie, who do you want to talk about first?
Jefferson or BTJ?
Well, I'll combine both by saying
there's asterix both these guys because if Jefferson gets a quarterback upgrade and Thomas gets traded,
then I will definitely go apologizing flowers and candy and all those things to, you know, mend the breakup.
But as we stand right now, Jefferson last year will start with him, was great with Carson Wentz.
In those five games, he was averaging over 16 ppr points per game.
In the JJ McCarthy games, as you alluded to, it was barely over 10 ppr points per game.
So it was ugly.
and, you know, look, they're going to, I'm sure, make as many overtures as they possibly can to, you know, find the right quarterback upgrade if they're just giving up on McCarthy altogether.
So you're going to hear Kirk Cousins. You're going to hear Derek Carr. You're going to hear Mack Jones.
You're going to hear a lot of different guys that are going to, you know, be in the mix there.
I doubt it's a Malik Willis type of player. You know, free agent that's on the market.
Maybe it's Aaron Rogers. I don't know. Thomas might not have more information, you know, following the Vikings as closely as he does.
but I think just in the case of whoever that quarterback is
will definitely be good for Justin Jefferson
because McCarthy was the report that came out this week
they stopped calling plays over the middle
because they didn't trust McCarthy to throw in that part of the field
like that's just how bad it was in regards to where his development has gone so far
and it's even him getting better.
It's just right now I find it
every time I see his name go off in the early part around two
I cringe in the middle part around so I'm like maybe
and the end part around too it's like okay
this is where I would start to consider it.
I just don't feel like Justin Jefferson is going to perform
to the level of his potential in the current environment
that he's in because of his quarterback.
Here is where Minnesota has ranked in four seasons under Kevin McConnell,
Kevin O'Connell, with gross passing yards per game.
So this is not including sacks, just the amount of passing yards per game.
Second, first, fifth, 30th.
they were 30th this year.
Can you name the two teams that
threw for fewer yards than Minnesota?
Cleveland and Tennessee.
Cleveland and
Heath's breakup list.
Oh, the Jets.
Yeah, Cleveland and the Jets.
So it's shocking to see the Minnesota Vikings
30th on that list, but they also have this great defense
and they don't need to throw the ball as much.
So that's another factor as well.
All right.
Brian Thomas Jr., what on earth happened with Brian Thomas Jr.?
because, you know, with Jefferson, you can look at the offense being bad.
Trevor Lawrence just had his breakout season.
It was a top five quarterback.
And Brian Thomas Jr. was wide receiver 46 per game, Jamie.
Yeah, I don't think if you were to say, here, Lawrence is going to be awesome.
But Thomas is going to suck.
That would just kind of throw everybody for a loop before the season.
And that's what happened.
And again, a lot of things changed throughout the course of the season.
I think at the beginning of the year, he was dealing with injury.
He was adjusting to Liam Cohen's offense.
and adjusting to Travis Hunter.
Then it was the addition of Jacobi Myers and the breakout of Parker Washington.
And as Trevor Lawrence continued to improve,
Brian Thomas Jr. just did not come along for the ride.
And so there's a lot of things that you have to keep an eye on this offseason.
There's already the ESPN report of him being potentially part of a trade scenario.
One that was floated out there was Buffalo.
There's the potential of just,
too many mouths to feed if he stays in Jacksonville because of Hunter coming back and now Myers being
there under a new contract and what Washington did. And so with all these guys and let's not forget
Brent Strange, whatever happens with their backfield, like there's just a lot of, you know,
targets that need to be spread about. And I don't know if Thomas commands the same type of attention.
Maybe it was just because, and you talked about this a lot, Adam, that his stretch in his rookie season,
Evan Ingram was hurt, Christian Kirk was hurt, and it was just feed Brian Thomas over and over again with a backup quarterback.
had nothing to lose. You know, Trevor Lawrence, obviously, not that he's going to be fearful of his job.
He's not Mac Jones going out there and just throwing the ball all over the place. You know,
he's got to be a little bit more cautious and careful with the ball and manage the offense a little bit differently.
So it just all fell apart for Thomas. Obviously, the talent is there. He doesn't do what he did.
He didn't, he does not do what he did as a rookie and not have the potential still be a great wide receiver and a great fantasy wide receiver.
I just don't know if it happens in Jacksonville right now. So third year, still a lot of upside.
Still somebody worth drafting. I don't even know if he should still be the first.
first Jacksonville receiver taken just because of what Washington looked like and what Myers
can still be.
It's just a lot to digest right now with Brian Thomas.
So I personally would like to see him traded and go to a team that be the clear-cut alpha.
Buffalo would make a ton of sense.
Paring him with Mendoza in Las Vegas would make some sense.
You know, there's just a lot of different destinations.
Tennessee with Cam Ward.
There's like just a lot of, you know, the openings around the league for a number one wide
receiver, he would definitely fit that bill and might need just to have a reset after what happened
in his sophomore campaign.
Is he that kind of player?
You can take a look here.
We're showing his true media page and you can see the yards per route run.
2.46 yards per out run was one of the best rookie seasons ever, at least over the last
decade.
I shouldn't say ever.
But since 2014, 2014 was that amazing rookie class.
These are the guys that have averaged more yards per out run than Brian Thomas,
Jr. as rookies.
Odell Beckham, Luther Burden is, by the way, number two on the list now.
A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Pooka, J.
Chas, Brian Thomas, Jr.
To be in that company, Beckham, Brown, A.J. Brown.
Jefferson, Puka, Jamar Chase, and then Brian Thomas Jr.
And yes, Luther Burden, like I said, he's in there now.
But he had probably by far the fewest targets of anyone on this list.
And then to have this kind of second season was really shocking.
And the funny thing is, Trevor Lawrence actually wasn't that good.
you know, when Brian Thomas Jr. was healthy the first nine games,
well, healthy in quotes, because he was playing through a wrist injury.
And then Thomas got hurt.
Trevor Lawrence, they traded for Jacoby Myers.
Then Lawrence became great.
And at that point, there were so many malice to feed.
But, yeah, I don't know, Dave, like, do you think if Brian Thomas Jr.
went to a team like the Titans or something, could he be a star again?
Does he have that?
Yes.
Yeah.
I think it could happen.
And I think we need the Jaguars and Brian Thomas Jr.
to break up in order for fantasy managers to reconcile with him.
But the Jaguars are not going to trade him in their division.
They're not, unless Tennessee overpays, which they're not going to do.
They're not going to trade them to Buffalo because they're a direct competitor for the
AFC crown.
So who in the NFC could use a wide receiver like this?
And the very first team I thought of is the team that has a quarterback that made a lot of
magic with Brian Thomas Jr. at LSU. If I'm the commanders and if the commanders want to
prioritize adding another wide receiver, remember Debo is going to go into free agency. They've got a
bunch of other guys that are, you know, they're their average players, but they're going to be
free agents. If they want to really make a splash and they don't want to, you know, get Brandon
Iuke, I wonder if they should at least kick the tires on BTJ and see what it would cost them to get
him in their offense. Because I think that would be an amazing landing spot for him.
and I would feel really good about Brian Thomas Jr.
If he's in a dialed down offense,
because remember they're going to add more undercenter stuff
and not do the Cliff Kingsbury thing with David Blow as the play caller.
And with a quarterback that can bring some, I guess,
I'm not sure what the word would be,
but it would probably maybe like ease Brian Thomas Jr.
And make him feel better about the situation and know that he can like,
you know,
together before. I'd be surprised if they weren't able to replicate that again to some level
if it were in Washington. So I agree. I think a trade has to happen for BTJ to be back in fantasy's
good graces. Last word, Heath?
Please send him somewhere else.
What happened at the end of the year, in my opinion, you look at the snap share, you look at the
snap share and the injuries and stuff like that. There were really only four games, including the
playoffs where you had normal snap shares for Parker Washington,
Jacobi Myers, Brenton Strange, Brian Thomas Jr.
And the targets in that stretch are unbelievable.
Parker Washington had 41 targets.
Jacobi Myers had 27.
Brenton Strange had 23.
And Brian Thomas Jr. had 17.
And the way they were using him is like a guy that if I had a breakup list might be
on it.
I don't know.
He might go late enough where I, probably not going to be on it,
but Ricky Pearsall, the way they were using Brian Thomas Jr., super high average route depth.
It's like he was running these clear-out routes and setting things up for everyone else
and just going deep on the perimeter all the time.
And I was surprised they did that with Pearsall.
That just is kind of weird in San Francisco.
But, yeah, it makes sense with Brian Thomas Jr.
When you look at the skill sets of Jacobi Myers and Parker Washington and Brenton Strange or whatever.
So, yeah, it's not the situation we want.
We don't want him on Jacksonville.
You guys go around the room.
Heath, Dave, Jamie,
who's the first Jaguars receiver you're taking?
Jacobi Myers.
Jacobi.
I'll go Parker.
Yeah, Parker, Washington, one, another thing I noticed.
So before the Jacob Myers trade,
you did have Travis Hunter there.
But there were eight games before the Jacobi Myers trade
for Brian Thomas Jr.
and within those eight games,
follow along, sorry,
Parker Washington had four games
where he played a lot.
He played over 70% of the snaps.
And he had four games where he barely played,
played less than a third of the snaps.
So now we got these eight games,
and within those eight games,
we got these four games
with a lot of Parker Washington,
and in those four games,
Parker Washington had nine or more targets three times.
So I'll sum it up by just saying,
Parker Washington had a much higher target per out run rate
than Brian Thomas Jr.
before the Myers trade, after the Myers trade.
And I didn't notice that until this morning,
but I thought that was really, really interesting.
And obviously performed, you know.
What if?
What if?
Mack Jones goes to Minnesota.
They trade Brian Thomas Jr. there for Jordan Addison.
Huh.
Then they signed Mike Evans,
reunited him with Liam Cohen.
They trade for Kyle Shanahan, and now they have an even better coaching staff.
Let's give them a couple of offensive libel that we just throw at them.
Yeah, that'd be wonderful.
All right.
Well, those are our breakups.
Did you guys want to contribute any breakup songs that you liked?
It's tough on the spot.
Okay.
Anyway, I hope none of you have to listen to break up songs at any point.
What a non-awkward way to end the show, Adam.
Great job.
You know, it was great.
Dave, I went back and watched the Hall of Fame stuff yesterday.
Adam doing play-by-play while you were trying to adjust.
Yeah, I went back and watched it.
Adam did an amazing job, Philbuck.
I did?
Yes.
You reminded me of like someone who's like the anchor of a news show who's like trying to kill time while a
parade is on the screen.
Oh, the parade is going on down
Fifth Street and the families
are happy. Everybody's cheering.
It's really a great time and the weather is unbelievable.
I thought you did a great job of
covering for my stupidity.
I thought it was a lot of fun.
You know what?
I have a tweet, a good content
tweet if we want to finish with this.
Comes from Minnesota Sports fan,
which is either Johnny Airport or Thomas.
We don't know.
Or this other person.
But Minnesota Sportsman
says, why doesn't anyone talk about
Cam Scataboo, a former day three
running back, getting a new head coach?
I know he's a ton of fun to root for, but
betting against day three running backs with a new head
coach is a good bet. Remember how fun
Damien Pierce was? Damiko came in
and he was a zero.
It's possible.
Yep. All right, good stuff.
Thank you. I think he's going to be very satisfied.
Anybody else fall into that category this year?
Who? Does anybody else fall into that category this year?
Day three rookie
running backs. Jenkins was a day two running back.
Right. Harvey was as well.
With a new coach.
No one's significant that I can think of.
Who were the three day three guys?
It was Tutin Scataboo, early round four.
Tutton Scataboo and there was one more, right?
How about Dylan Sampson?
What do you mark the same coach?
Yes.
I was thinking about the day three guys from 2024
that may have gotten new coaches and if it mattered.
Yeah, it was Trevor,
Trevary TN, Woody Marks, yeah.
All right, let's take a look at day three running backs in 2024.
Caleb Johnson was a day two pick last year by the Steelers.
Yeah.
Lucky Irving was a day three guy in 24,
but he didn't get a new coach.
He did get a new coordinator.
Thought about that.
Audrick Estime got a new coach and a new team.
No, no, Audrey Estime didn't get a new coach.
Never mind.
I mean, you know, who the guy was was Tyrone Tracy.
He didn't get a new coach, but he did get replaced by another day three running back.
Yeah, I don't think we have enough of a sample size.
If they draft a running back, then maybe we could start talking about that, but I don't think so.
I think Scataboo...
I mean, I think from...
To the point, historically speaking, that has been true, that day three running backs
as rookies are more risky than guys who were drafted earlier.
Yeah, now just remember, he was an early day three.
pick and it was one of the best running back classes we've had in years.
I have a feeling Scataboo would have been a day two pick in most.
This year he'd be probably a day two pick, right?
I don't know, but just think so.
Just spitball.
Right.
Yeah.
It's a good question.
Kind of a different era.
And he's coming off a major injury.
So it's a good question.
Thanks, guys.
Have a wonderful day.
What are we going to talk about tomorrow?
I will tell you in a moment, because I forgot.
tomorrow is ideal trade slash free agent scenarios.
Where do we want to see?
How about Brian Thomas Jr.
With Mack Jones on the Vikings, ship out Addison,
bringing Shanahan.
No, no, no, no, just Mike Evans, reunited with a lien points.
It would be great for Justin Jefferson.
Anyway, we'll talk to you tomorrow with a little free agency preview.
Payness football today.
See you.
Podcasts.
