Fantasy Football Today - Fantasy Football Busts, Values & League Winners! | Red, White & Boom (July 4th Edition: Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 2, 2026

It's our Red, White & Boom special! Adam, Dave, Heath, and Jacob Gibbs each give one fantasy football player they're avoiding, one they're happy to draft at cost, and one they believe will explode in 2026. Dave believes in Harold Fannin Jr. (11:00) as a breakout sleeper who could smash expectations this season. Heath explains why he's fading Mike Evans (22:35) and makes the case for avoiding the veteran at his current price. Jacob predicts a monster campaign for AJ Brown (49:40), making him his favorite explosion pick for 2026. Adam wraps things up by explaining why Tee Higgins (1:00:43) is a value he's more than happy to draft at his current cost. Tune in for bold predictions, draft strategy, and plenty of fireworks to help you build a championship-winning fantasy roster.Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcastsWatch FFT on YouTube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠FOLLOW FFT Dynasty on Spotify: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. What a play! Can you believe this? It's a no idea. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Up to the races, and he stays on his feet. It's just going to go the distance. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.

Well, howdy, everybody. Welcome to the show. Fantasy football today, your holiday edition. I don't know how long can keep this stupid hat on because it's messing with my headphones, but it's 4th of July, almost. It's 2nd of July. It's our last show before the 4th of July.

We have an awesome topic for you. It's called Red, White, and Boom. And Jacob gives us here. And Jacob, we had an email sent around and said, hey, everybody, tomorrow's topic, red, white, and boom. Who are your players? And you wrote Red, White, and Blue.

So you need to honor the topic, Jacob, or you're out. Sorry about that. Wow, yeah. I definitely do not have the commitment to the best. it that you do respect. I told Thomas I had a hat for the occasion. I got it at Party City like eight years ago and I wear it every Fourth of July.

What's up, Dave? Looks like the kind of hat that a 50-year-old woman with liposuction would wear. What? Why liposuction? Just, you know, that plastic surgery type of profile. Okay. I don't think someone with, you know, I don't know. I'm thinking of, you know what I'm thinking of is like, you know, the woman that's got the big lips.

That's not even liposate. Oh, yeah, Dave. Lots of pleasure. You need to really stop, Dave. Stop. That's what it looks like. Okay. Thank you.

Thank you, Andy. And sick. Dave nailed it. Okay. Yeah. Did. Entirely inappropriate. Starting the show with a boom.

Someone says, But yeah, fireworks are a waste of money. I'll remind you where I grew up in Florida, you can go to a store. Do they still have Neptune? Yes. It's like going to Walmart for fireworks and you can buy industrial strength fireworks basically. It's insane. It is insane.

I don't know how it's still around, but it's insane. There's fireworks for sale at the public's around the corner. You can buy them from a guy on the corner in a tent. But they go up in the sky and they go, they go, they go up in the sky and they go, that's what fireworks do. Well, not all of them. That's what four-year-olds say they do.

Did you know that fireworks are illegal in Hawaii? I found that out yesterday for my girlfriend. Well, like illegal for you and me to purchase or illegal? I just don't think they sell them. I think you have to bring them in. I don't think you sell them in New York, but I could be wrong. All right, anyway, red. Here's the explainer for today's show.

Red, white, and boom. Red means pump the brakes. This is a player we're avoiding at cost. We're using Fantasy Pro's ADP, PPR. White, fair ADP, you're going to draft this player if he falls to you, and boom, light the fuse. A player you think is going to smash expectations and could win you leagues.

So red, white, and boom, red, pump the brakes, too early. White, ADP is fair. Boom, we think he's going to, you know, hit smash expectations. I'm not going to say, I'm not going to yell boom every time. All right. I think you should. Let's get started with Dave's Red, White, and Boom. Just run through who they are real quick.

Red. Breece Hall. White. Parker Washington. And boom! Harold Fanon, Jr. Let's go. Breece Hall, 30th overall, RB 14.

Parker Washington, that's the white selection. 66th overall. wide receiver 32 and boom, Harold Fandon Jr., 95th overall, tight-in, eight. All right, go ahead. Kick it off with Breeze Hall. Well, we already saw it last year. He averaged 17.4 touches per game, three targets per game, average 13 ppr points per game.

And now we're just expecting everything to be cool. His ADP on Fantasy Pros is 28th. It's 30th. And our Fantasy FFT fans only ADP. This is a round three pick for a guy who wasn't good last year. Coaching staff changed. They have a new play caller. He's detrimental to Breeze Hall.

Frank Reich is the guy he has habitually used multiple running backs. He's only had a running back get over 15 PPR points per game three times in 10 years. If you lower that to 13, okay, great, it's four times in 10 years. This offense isn't going to be any, I don't think it'll be much better with Gino Smith at quarterback. You can talk about the offensive line all day long. I still think they're not going to score a lot of points. I don't like that he had a bunch of touches last year and didn't do well. Now he's going to get a bunch of touches this year and do better.

Why? I don't get it. And I will even say this. He will start the season well. It takes on Tennessee in week one. The schedule the first half the year isn't really that bad. But in the second half the year, this guy is going to cost you some fantasy weeks. He's not going to be that good.

I don't think he's worth a pick in round three. I think he's worth a pick in round five. Ooh, round five. All right, so that's Breeze Hall as pump the brakes. Let me just ask Heath and Jacob. Do you disagree with any of these selections? Breeze Hall as the red, white, Parker, Washington, boom, Harold Fannan Jr. I disagree with everything.

Really? Wow. Let's go. Terrible list. No, I don't think I disagree with. I don't have a strong opinion on Parker Washington, so I guess white fits perfectly. It's just kind of a shoulder shrug emoji for me on Parker Washington as of right now. I think it's saying it's a little bit inaccurate maybe to say Bruce Hall got a lot of touches last year and didn't do well.

Like he was at 13.2 fantasy points per game. That's pick 30. What's that probably R.B. 15? Well, last year he was R. about 21 per game. No. I'm saying where he's being drafted right now. Yeah, pick 30, RB 14.

RB 14. So, like, yeah, he's always had a hard time scoring touchdowns, but the two seasons prior to this, it was nine and eight last year. It was five on more touches. I think we probably see him more involved in the passing game if Braylon Allen stays healthy, because Braylon Allen maybe takes a little bit off of his play.

in terms of rushing and then Isaiah Davis doesn't have to take some of the passing downs because Hull's being used so much as a rusher. He's a guy who has shown us an insane ability in the passing game, 6.6 yards per target for his career, 7.3 last year. Maybe they're just so dumb that they're going to say, no, we really shouldn't throw a DeBree's hole more than 48 times in 16 games. But I don't really believe that. I think it was just the rolls got swapped to live.

little bit when Alan went down and he had to play a portion of the year with Justin Field who doesn't really throw to running backs a lot. I have him ranked pretty much exactly where he's being drafted. He would have been white for me. I might actually be lower on haul than Dave. I've got him at running back 22. So him and DeAndre Swift are basically just flipped for me. It looks like consensus has Breece around running back 16 and Swift at running back 22. I have Swift at running back 16. I think that Breeze probably finishes higher than running back 22. I think the stuff he's said there makes sense. Him and Travis Achan are two players who I've used similarly where I'm just not drafting them very much because I think that their upside is pretty limited.

And I end up gravitating more towards a bit of a riskier pick where whether that's Bayshall Tutin or maybe somebody like Cam Scataboo, who I think have more upside. I've got a tough time getting there with Breece Hall in this offense. Just for the record, since we're looking at career numbers, Gino is a career running back target rate of 17. 6%. Certainly more of a downfield thrower than a checkdown guy. I think that hurts all the running backs in New York. And I think Isaiah Davis is going to be the passing downs back for the Jets. He was for a big chunk of last year. It is absolutely the tendency of Frank Reich to use multiple running backs,

one on running downs, one on passing downs. And now Aaron Glenn wants him to use Braylin Allen as well. Could you imagine if Breece Hall is a trapback and that they use Allen who's bigger and more physical than Breece Hall at the goal line? And they use Isaiah Davis on passing downs. and he's the one that's getting two and a half targets per game, and Breece Hall isn't. It's coaching malpractice.

And I agree with Heath that Brice Hall is absolutely talented. He's awesome as a pass catcher. But the coaching staff needs to like get hit upside the head and say, listen, man, you've got this talent you just paid. Use them. And so far they are telegraphing that they are not going to make him a war course. They are not going to give him the type of work that a featureback has, except he kind of already had that last year and he let us down.

And if I'm drafting somebody in round three with the idea that they're going to get me 13 ppr points per game. I think I'm drafting wrong. I'm looking for upside to do a lot better than 13 ppr points per game in round three. Also, just to the Braylen Allen point, the first four weeks, I think it was when Braylin Allen was healthy. He was averaging about 13 rush attempts and five targets per game. After Braylon Allen got hurt, the rush attempts went up to 16 per game.

He fell down to two targets per game. So let's talk about Parker, Washington, and or. Harold Fanon Jr. Dave, why is Harold Fanon Jr. your boom play? Harold Fanon is a boom because he was awesome last year. And even though the Browns drafted two wide receivers in the top 40, I don't think it's going to really pull too many targets away from him. 11.7 p.pr points per game on 6.7 targets per game. He really showed last year. And Heath was first to talk about this with Harold Fanon, which is why I'm surprised that Heath is so low on Harold Fannin. He's really athletic and he proved it in college. He had the opportunity

to do it early on in the year when David Nujoka was healthy for the Browns. And he really never let up on that role. Now you're telling me that, and I love Casey Concepcion, but you're telling me that Casey Concepcion and Denzel Boston are going to completely suck away targets from Harold Fannin and leave Fannin with four targets per game. I don't think that that's likely at all. Deshawn Watson has a career target per career target rate to tight ends of 20.2%. It's actually 23.4% in his two years in Cleveland. If he's the guy, I don't mind him looking for Harold Fanon, who probably knows exactly where he needs to be and can do something with the ball after the catch time and time again. And Todd Monkin's track record with

tight ends is actually really good. You go back to 2024 and 2025 with Baltimore, 30.2% tight end target rate under Todd Monkin. It was 23.1% in 2023. Earlier than that in his career, it wasn't as good, but I think Monkin has realized, especially for a quarterback that might need to be eased in to NFL action, or in the case of Shreder Sanders, a quarterback that's still working to find his way, that a tight end can be his best friend in the middle of the field, and he's got a great one in Harold Fanon.

I see his ADP, that this really baffled me on fantasy pros. His ADP is a hundred and third overall. That's an amazing value for somebody who could finish as a top five tight end. I got him a 95th overall. That's still really good. I would take them around 6 in full PPR. Yeah, Titan ADP is interesting on Fantasy Pros. It's like Titan 6 is Kyle Pitts at 92.

Titan 7 is the Porta at 95. Tide end 8 is Fanon also at 95. So Titan 5 is Kraft at 82. So it's a long wait after Warren. Warren at 64. and then it's like Kraft 82 and then you get into the mid-90s with Leporta, Fannin

and Pitts, Leporta, and Fannin. I love that value for all those guys. Yeah. So I thought I would be white on Fannin. I thought I was right in line, but at that range, I definitely comfortable taking a shot on Fannin. There are so many reasons to be concerned,

obviously, about the Browns of it all. And then if you want, you know, the new past catchers coming in might affect him. We might see some different types of personnel packages where he gets less playing time than last year. But at that range, it's pretty much just upside. And why I'm comfortable taking him is I really think he could be a special player. My favorite stat on fan, there's so many amazing stats that are just like, this guy looks like he could be historically good, is he tied Christian

McCaffrey, rookie season Christian McCaffrey for the most receptions with more than five yards gained after initial contact with a defender for any player under the age of 22 dating back to 2015. So that's 11 years of data that we have available there. Fanon and CMC tied to the very top above rookie season to Mar Chase, about rookie season, Sequin Barclay, in terms of gains of five or more yards after initial contact. He's always fighting for more yards. He's so good, man.

Yeah, you know, you mentioned the Deshaun Watson thing and him throwing to his tight ends, but it is worth noting. Like, David Njokeu was pretty horrible when Deshaun Watson was the quarterback. In three years, let's see, 387 routes. David Najoku averaged 1.22 yards per route run with Deshaun Watson.

That was one of the things is like Watson's tight end target rate looks okay in the league context and looks pretty miserable in the Stafansky context. He was kind of the one quarterback under Stafansky that did not elevate tight ends. And

so I think part of it is I'm trying to be a little bit consistent in that if I think that Kevin Stefansky and Drew Petzig matter for Sam Leporta and Kyle Pitts, then I have to think that losing them matters a little bit for Trey McBride and Harold Fanon. I do think Concepcion and Boston make this receiving core, especially if Deshawn Watson's the quarterback, more appealing for quarterbacks to throw to. If Shador wins this job in camp, then I'm going to give Fannin a boost,

because they've got that connection already. Shadour threw it to him 33% of the time last year. I do agree with everything Jacob said, obviously. I love Harold Fanon. I was like, bro, it's F-O-E. I feel like we're overthinking this.

He's literally just like by far the most talented player that you can get after Pick 100. Like, it's not who's even in that conversation? I don't have a problem with that at Pick 100. I mean, I'm not sure I see the... I'm not sure I see the boom.

Okay. Is what I was saying. I think I probably would have had Harold Fanon as a White also. All right. We've got to take a break. and then we can talk about Parker Washington or we can move on to Heath's Red, White, and Boom.

And we'll be right back. And also, I see some people talking about soccer in the chat. You know, soccer, you were doing so well. You were doing so well. And then every time, you know, you just remind us of something within you that is so stupid. Idiot soccer. We'll be right back on fantasy football today.

You know, we watch, I'm not going to ever call you football. If you want me to think about calling you football, then you need to man up and watch actual football where guys are beating the crap out of each other and maybe getting a penalty, but not getting kicked out of a game and not able to be replaced and then suspended for the next game because they accidentally stepped on someone's ankle. Are you kidding me? Like the whole red card thing is so punitive and so unfair. want to kick a guy out of a game, fine.

Let them replace the guy. Playing 10 on 11 is such a stupid rule. It just changes the game so drastically. And if that's going to be the end result, and it's not like I just learned this yesterday, by the way, I knew the red card rule. But if that's going to be the end result, you better really do something bad to get a red card.

And he did not do anything even close to something that would warrant getting kicked out of the game, not being able to be replaced for the, rest of the game and being suspended for at least one more game in what is now one of the most important games in U.S. soccer history and they don't have arguably their best player because he accidentally stepped on someone's ankle. What a joke. You are soccer. You are not football. Football is a real man's game. Wow. USA. Said by a man wearing a red, white, and blue star. I think I think that's kind of the argument for from from football.

fans, though, is that you guys just should have chosen a different name because you created something different from our sport. You're right. They're not the same thing. But it's not like soccer is trying to call themselves football because of what football is and they want to be like that. No. Soccer already was football. The wrong part of the argument here. Forget about the football semantics.

That was so weak and so lame. It was a terrible call by the referee who I, I would imagine he would try and take it back or at least think about taking it back. He didn't make the call. It was the video. It was the review guy. That's the person who would probably wish they could take it back.

I just don't. I mean, I'm not a soccer guy. None of us are. But I do think that like there's stepping with your cleats on the players, Achilles, nowhere close to the ball, while challenging is quite often a red card.

Yeah, but, But, like, you know, use your judgment. He obviously didn't do it on purpose. They were battling for position, and he just came down that way. And also, I just don't, I do not understand the concept of not letting them replace the player. Oh, I thought the 10 v11 was like, what made that game so great. No. Like, it was going to be a really boring second half.

And then all of a sudden, it's like, oh, it might actually be a game. It's a dumb rule. Could you imagine that in the NFL? In any sport. Yeah. It's insane. It can happen in basketball, I think, if you have too many people fell out. Okay.

It happened in Hoosiers. Whatever I. Oh, they had six guys on their team. My four are on the floor. My four on the floor. That's great. And I think he had a, I think he had a guy he could have played. Yeah, he was disciplining his own player by not allowing him to come back in.

Very different scenario here. All right. Sorry, in order for this show to move on here. Anybody with a strong opinion on, nobody agrees with Heath. Get out of here. By the way, I have some video evidence today of an NFL player strongly disagreeing with Heath that we're going to show later on. Do they know what I said? Oh, yeah.

Oh, yeah. Anyway, Parker Washington. Yeah, let's go over to Heath. Let's go over to Heath's red, white, and boom here. We'll talk about Parker Washington on a different show. I'm sorry about that. Heath, who do you have as... 10 minutes on soccer, zero minutes on Parker,

Washington. Who do you have... It's topical. Who do you have as red, white, and boom? So I went with a round five theme. Chose three players from the same round for a red, white, and boom. My red, it will surprise no one. It's Mike Evans.

I'm at 54th overall, I believe. Although I'm not sure. because you also put 54th overall for Quinshawn Judkins, and I don't think they're being picked with the same pick. They are 153.5 and 54. Okay. Quinchon Judkins is my boom at RB 23 and 54 overall, and Romodunze is my white at 58th overall.

Okay, so Evans too early. Romo Dunzee just right. Quinshan Judkins, boom, great value. Could smash expectations. Yeah. Do we have these screenshots here of, all right, listen. I want to show you Mike Evans running some routes.

Last game of the year. Okay, look how open he's getting. And he knows your dog at him. So he's going on. Yeah, you know, he knows, man. Look, it's in the, these are quotes. I didn't make these up. It's a sup, Heath.

I'm wide open. Look at me just abusing this guy for a 13-yard game. Okay, let's get to the next screenshot. Look how opening. He gets a pass interference on him, and he still beats the guy for a big game. And he knew, because no way tomato is your favorite fruit, Heath. That makes no sense. He knows your terrible takes, Heath.

Okay. All right, so he's open here. Same game. How do you like me now, Heath? This is just screenshots of Mike Evans getting open, still being good. Baker Mayfield threw an interception on this play, by the way. So this was just, you know, me having a little fun. I believe he was wide receiver one in fantasy point status charting for separation last year.

Wow. Yeah, well, and they saw the quotes, too. They know what's up. But anyway, go ahead. So, well, Jacob and Dave, what do you strongly agree or disagree with here? Pump the brakes on Mike Evans, just right for Romo Dunez, boom pick for Quintzhan Judkins. They're all going around 55th overall.

I strongly disagree on Evans. He's one of a handful of receivers who I have, like, way above consensus among my top 30, with Parker Washington being one of the others, too. So Fantasy Pro shows you like plus or minus relative to consensus. They're both plus five. I've got Evans of YD receiver 20. I think that, you know, obviously the upside is clear with Kyle Shanhan, but if you want more detail on that, Dan Schneier and I did about a 15-minute breakdown on Beyond the Box score, like an individual video on Evans that goes into all the historical context and just how good it could be. Dave, anything from you?

I just don't love the fact that a 33-year-old receiver with the history of hamstring issues is now going to be relied upon in this 49ers offense to stay healthy. I think he's a great fit for that offense based on his route running. You're banking on him being, you're banking on him having a bounce back year. He had one game all year with 15 plus PPR in 2025. So I'm really hoping that he can step up in a major way and stay on the field and be that number one alpha for the 49ers. They haven't had that guy at wide receiver in a while, unless there's somebody I'm just totally blanking on who's been that guy for them. Dave, where do you think Baker Mayfield ranked on? catchable target rate out of 39 qualified quarterbacks on throws of 10 or more air yards last

probably dead last. Peter Sanders was dead last. Oh, you know what? That makes sense. Yeah, 34th. 34th. Okay. That's, you know, I didn't expect Baker to be good.

Also, I, how many of those games? It doesn't even matter who they'll care so many games haven't played. I think everybody knows what the red flags are with him. And taking him, I'm a little behind ADP. on Evans, just because I don't want to spend a top 50-ish pick on somebody who I might have for 11 or fewer games and who might not see even like in any improvement in target volume in San Francisco. So he might fit into the offense great, but he might also only give us five games next year of like 14 plus PPR.

I guess, no, that's not even okay. I'm not okay with that in round five. I was going to pick Romodunze as well, Heath, as the white suggestion here, the just right ADP. And I need there to be enough separation between him and Luther Burden to justify passing on Luther Burden. And I think it's probably about 15 picks or so. It's getting close. Yeah, obviously the whole foot thing is concerning. You said the new normal for him is the bones in his foot have shifted.

and he has to kind of get used to it. But a wide receiver 29 for Romo Dunezay, who just got off to a brilliant start last year and had a, I think it was a 23% target share in his first 12 games. So, yeah, anyway, discuss. Yeah, I think for Rome, this just feels like the good middle point

between this guy with very good pedigree, a very good offensive system, and a huge target opportunity, and also this guy who maybe it was just he got hurt obviously but the things kind of went downhill before he got hurt last year

and honestly his first two years in the league if you just look at it in a vacuum it's a pretty miserable start he's just not been what we were hoping he would be he and Caleb cannot get on the same page he's barely caught half of his targets in his first two years

in the league. And some of that's not his fault. Some of it's Caleb's fault because Caleb kind of sprays the bowl a little bit. But still, Caleb Williams also has great pedigree, could take a leap at any moment. And Roma Dunzee could be his number one wide receiver. So this is kind of that there's a low floor, there's a high ceiling. Round five feels right about right. I think what's something that people might forget, including myself, is that, you know, look at the first 12 games of the year. O'Donzee had a 23.7. percent target share. DJ Moore had a 16.6% target share.

Alameday Zakias, who was no longer on the team, had a 14.2% target share. So that was another guy who was getting a decent amount of targets. He was on pace for 77 targets in those 12 games. Of course,

Burden and Loveland weren't doing much. But one thing that I like about Oduinze, and he's going to have to score touchdowns because Heath mentioned his catch rate. His catch rate's around 50%, each of the first two years. He's a high A-D guy.

also good yak, so that's cool. He's good at yards per catch. He has the ninth most end zone targets per game of any wide receiver over the last two years. And the guys ahead of O'Donzee are Adams, Evans, Marvin Harrison, Jr., Deontay Johnson, weird, Justin Jefferson, George Pickens, Jamarte Chase, and he's tied with Drake London,

eighth most end zone targets per game. That's just, that's Caleb's guy, has been Caleb's guy in the end zone. Judkins as your boom. Yeah, I think we talked about this on a show a couple weeks ago or earlier this week maybe and just like the two second year running backs that are coming back from major injuries and where they're currently being drafted. And Scadaboo is like a round and a half, two rounds ahead of Judkins.

I still think Judkins is a better rusher. And I think that this is still going to be a very good defense in Cleveland. and if Todd Monkin has, and one of the other reasons I'm a little bit concerned about Harold Fanon, I think if Todd Monkin has a choice in a game and it stays competitive, we're probably going to get at least a 50% rush rate. And they showed last year, they believe you can lean on Quinshan Judkins in the run game. I'm hopeful the offensive line. There's at least reason to hope the offensive line could be a little bit better than it was last year. That's not a guarantee with the changes that they made.

And he absolutely has a chance to score 10 plus touchdowns every year. They added a fullback in Mike Burton. That's a signal that they want to run the ball more. They're going to put a fullback on the field. I think they love what they've done with their offensive line this offseason. Yes, you're right. You can't guarantee that it's going to be better, but it's going to be really hard to be as bad as it was last year

between all the injuries and bad play that they had. I think the Browns deserve props for improving their offensive line. And you are right. I think that if it's a close game late, you will see a much closer to 50-50 pass run rate. from the Browns versus when they're down 10 points in the fourth quarter and they just have to let it rip through there. I think there's almost no way. It can be as bad as it was last year to your point about the offensive line. If I can turn my screen here, Ashland Jinty, only averaged 0.06 yards before contact per rush.

That's something that we point towards a lot as like, wow, he really had it tough last year. It's going to be better this year. Hopefully, under Clint Kubiak with the Linderbaum edition and everything should be better for the Raiders, right? 0.06 or no 0.6 ranked 150th out of 115 qualifiers dating back to 2012. If you lower the qualification to 150 or more rushes in a season, Junkins ranks dead last out of 250. He averaged 0.4 yards before contact per rush last year. Insane. I did a behind-the-boxer profile on him and I'm like, this guy is so good. He really might be the best running back from this class. And I still don't know if it's going to matter. I still don't know if it's going to matter. Like I'm not drafting him anywhere. I hate it. Oh, wow. When would you draft him, Jacob? When would I draft him? Yeah, what round? Like, I'm okay with him in round four.

Yeah, he reminds me of Tetero McMillan. So it's like, I don't think it's a bad pick necessarily. I feel a little bit more comfortable with McMillan because he doesn't have the serious injury that he's recovering from. But I think most likely this is a young, dependable stud who you're going to be okay with most weeks, even though the offense is not good. But I do worry a lot about what is realistic.

ceiling is, which is why I was interested to hear what Heath's case was for him being like the boom player, just because I think the offensive environment is just so limiting. So again, it's kind of like, um, Brees Hall. Um, really there's, to me, there's four running backs who stand out as similar. And you could throw Scatibu into this, but I think his role just as a receiver and a red zone threat is a little bit unique. But there's four running backs who stand out is very similar where we know or we feel very very convicted that they're supremely talented players, but we're very worried about their

offense being like the worst in the whole league and what do you do with them for fantasy and that's devon a chan jeremiah love breese hall and quinn john jukkins i have them ranked in that order um but the fact that junkins is like well below them in terms of cost i think is relevant you know because he really might be near that group in terms of talent level and if things are just a little bit better in year two then we could see this 18 20 touches per game be pretty good for fantasy still i think yeah it just he doesn't really catch passes. He didn't last year anyway. I think he's a little bit better with Chedurr Sanders.

But I don't know, Heath, have you mentioned about Judkins? He has on paper the easiest, well, the Browns have the easiest schedule in the NFL. Yeah, I think, I mean, I felt better about this take before the Miles Garrett trade, even though I think the Browns made a very good trade with the Miles Garrett trade. But before that, I thought, you know, they're probably going to be more competitive than people think they are. not because the offense is good. It still could be one of the worst offenses. But I think it's more difficult for it to be one of the worst offenses

if they stay in games and just give it to Judkins 22 times a game. They're just going to keep getting first downs. Jacob, you are up. Jacob, why don't you start out? Tell us what's coming up on Beyond the Box score. Sure, yeah, thanks. Beyond the Box score, we've got, right now we're really focused on all these player profiles. So we're looking at some of the more polarizing players heading into 2026.

whether that's these year two players like Junkins or Harold Fanon Jr., where we don't really know quite what to make of them next year. And we've got some profiles out on them so you can like binge all this, dig into all this throughout the season if you want, or this draft season if you want, find all that on Beyond the Box Corps. Today, Dan Schneier and I are wearing tank tops, and we're going to talk about the most underrated wide receivers. So that's just kind of a for fun show.

a lot of great guests coming on to help us out, get you all ready for draft season for sure. One of them was Rich Rebar, who just does awesome, awesome work. And I've got some cool stats from Rich that I want to share with you in reference to my first red player here, which is Trey McBride, which I don't like because I think Tray McBride, we talk about talent. Like, he's one of the most talented players in the league for sure. I've got him at Titan 3. I am drafting close and Loveland ahead of him.

Not that you ever have to make that decision. but I'm quite nervous about McBride. I thought that Heath's points about Samaporta, potentially outscoring McBride makes a lot of sense. I think that that's totally realistic. I wanted to talk about that. You mentioned the three-tied-in usage from your conversation with Ryan Heath

about, like, Ladd-McConkie being the next Jackson Smith and Jigba and how that personnel package-type stuff could benefit him with Mike B. Daniel coming over. So it's not that additional tightens on the field necessarily boosts any specific position. It's more so that just having tight-ins or full-backs, it's really simple, like having tight-ins or fullbacks on the field, instead of receivers,

boosts the best players. Not only are those players less likely to draw targets in terms of full-backs, second and third tight-ins and stuff like that, but also those bigger personnel packages are more likely to sell to a defense that a run might be coming. And so the best play callers, the guys who are really using this well, whether that's Sean McVey or Ben Johnson,

or low-key drew petting, I really think is underrated. If you want to listen to that play callers episode that we just did with Rich Reebar, we talk about petting a lot. I think Detroit's offense is going to set the league on fire sidebar. I think that it's just going to be insane this year. It boosts the best players. I think that's a way to sell the run and then get play action looks, get under center passing, get all this kind of efficiency boosting stuff

where you can get your best players in advantageous matchups. And so last year we saw McBride. had a ton of production from these personnel packages. Only Pukunuku had more receptions from three tight-in sets than Trade McBride. He had a 33% target per route run rate from those personnel packages. The stat that I think is, that's just a small little thing that I wanted to bring in reference to that conversation you all had. The stat that's more meaningful, I think, is just the raw number of routes that Tray McBride

ran. This is from Rich Rebar. Trade McBride Bride ran 694 routes last year, which is 121. more than the next closest tight end. It's the most routes run by a tight-in in the true media database. The previous highway 623. McBride had 694. The average tight-in runs about 32 routes per game per Rich's research. So basically, McBride ran 22 games worth of routes last year,

which is just not replicable. Like all the Arizona stuff is clearly not replicable. But that in particular, like just the raw volume, It was just busted. That's not, I mean, everyone else is running 17 games worth of routes and he ran 22. What if they go to the Super Bowl? Yeah, maybe they will. So, like, Heath brought up, like, the per route stuff for McBride really doesn't look

that special last year. And that's just true. Like, and it makes sense. And an offense that's not that good, not that efficient overall, you aren't going to be able to produce elite efficiency most of the time. and so if the total volume number comes down and he doesn't somehow increase that efficiency in a big way, which I don't think that he's that type of a player

because the Titans who typically get to elite efficiency that aren't able to do it because of their team are guys who are winning down the field or creating tons of yards after the catch. Bride doesn't necessarily do either of those things. He's more of an accumulator. He gets a lot of short targets. And so I'm pretty nervous about what is going to look like this year,

and I think there are clear paths to more upside with some of the other titans around him, even though we might be a little bit safer than somebody like Colson Loveland or Sam LaPorta, I could see either of those guys outscoring him easily. All right, we've got to take a break here. So red, white, and boom for Jacob. Red is Trey McBride.

White and boom, we'll find out after this on FFT. All righty. My white is Kenneth Walker. And I'm really curious to get your guys take on this. I'm with some early round players. I haven't got a chance to talk about Walker much this offseason. But if you do want to watch a profile, he's one of the first ones that we did,

one of these individual profiles way back in the free agency period was Kenneth Walker. The obvious appeal with Walker is explosive plays, and that's really come through in an impressive way. So he ranks running back 23 in explosive plays per game through an initial four seasons dating back to 2000, which puts him in a range with some really, really good players, like just the head of Sean Alexander, Brian Westbrook. And that's while splitting a backfield for a lot of that time, we know how good the explosive play potential is and could be in this Kansas City backfield where teams play the past.

That's how it's been for a long time. What I want to talk about is can he potentially increase the consistency? And I'm really curious to get Heath's perspective on this specifically as a Chiefs fan. So I'm tying this to Eric Bienemy. And so if you look at, I dug into all this in this player profile,

we want to get all the specific information. The golden era of like the Andy Reid run game came under Eric Bienome. And specifically, they had this, 2021 team that was insanely efficient, it was a 54% success rate, which is the third highest mark of any team over the past five seasons on running back runs, and 70% of the runs gained positive yards before initial contact. The league average last year was 55%. 70% is the highest of any team during the time I have that data available dating back to 2017. Heath, do you remember who the

running backs were in the 2021 Kansas City Chiefs backfield? Oh, man. I wish that you hadn't You should have asked me at like one sentence earlier because I actually, while you were talking, was like, well, who was the 21-21 Chiefs running back? And I had already pulled it up. Darrell Williams, Clyde Edwards-Helair, and Derek Gore Jr. are the running backs you're not remembering from this 54% success rate team. I really think BNAMI is good at this specifically. Another area I would point to is DeAndre Swift's transformation last year. So next-gen stats has some interesting ways to contextualize what's happening in the running back position. One of those stats is the efficiency of movement.

So like the amount of space that's covered, it's basically are they getting vertical? The amount of space that's covered to get yards, basically. And Swift was the third least efficient in this metric in 2024, and then in 2021-5, he was well above the league average in this metric. So huge change there. Another set they have is yards over expectation. and Swift was dead last in the percentage of his runs that gained positive yards over expectation in 2024.

And then in 2025, he was first in the league. And that's really unusual for him. He's kind of been like a Kenneth Walker type where he's like more boom bust. And then last year we saw him be like, Mr. Consistent. And I think a lot of people would just say, well, yeah, Ben Johnson. Ben Johnson does the run installs. We've seen him with Ben Johnson before. You know, this is the first time we ever saw him with Beinamee, and he looked completely different.

And so I'm wondering, like, what could the enemy do for Kenneth Walker, who's been one of the most effective running backs in the NFL when given at least one yard before contact? 6.5 yards per rush last year when given at least one yard before contact. Only Devon A. Chan had a higher explosive run rate on these runs where there was at least one yard before initial contact with the defender. The chiefs have been very good at creating these types of runs. And I think that has something to do with the way defenses play them, but also there's a lot of talent on that offensive line. So I'm really excited for Walker. And I want to hear Heath's thoughts on Eric B. Enemy and then all of you of this tracks. No, I think the stuff you brought about Swift and improving that is really applicable because you're right.

They have early in his career, Swift was more of a Kenneth Walker style home run or two-yard loss. And so I think he could have that same type of positive impact on Ken Walker And he could get more consistent as a rusher and and could have a very effective season I think my two questions are don't have much to do with the rushing It's what's his role in the passing game to be because I don't think Eric Bien of me when he was there in the past The Chiefs really threw the running back a lot and I don't think Walker's probably going to be the third down or two-minute drill running back and And then I don't think anybody is taking red zone rush attempts from him in terms of a running back. But do the chiefs continue to do all the Patrick Mahomes stuff they've historically done in the red zone,

which really limits those carries inside the 10-yard line for their lead running back? But I think the stuff you brought up on BNemies really good and makes me more optimistic about him as a rusher. I think it's worth pointing out that Swift, one with the Bears, had a really bad offensive line, and then in that offseason, they went out and massively upgraded. And I think the Seahawks offensive line did well last year and stayed healthy.

But you already mentioned it, the Chiefs, especially on the interior, are really good. This is such a great setup. I mean, Jamie has him eighth at running back. So Heath and Dave are more like 12 and 13, I think. but what is his fantasy pros ADP RB10 16th overall RB10

So right right in the middle of where we all You have him 10th Jacob He's my white player yeah I've got him at running back 11 I've got him behind Henry And A Chan I think I might move him ahead of A Chan Potentially But yeah that's why I wanted to bring this up Is because like I've got all these reasons

To think that he could be this boom player But for the reasons Heath brought up With the role uncertainty transitioning over to a new team. And also, like, he's got to prove it. I think that he could do this stuff. I think the enemy can help him. But at the same time, he ranks freaking 51st

and rush success rate among running back since entering the NFL out of 54 qualifiers. And a lot of that has to do with the offensive line and stuff. But Zach Sharbner ranks in the top 20, playing behind the same offensive line. Like, a lot of that is Kenneth Walker. I love the guy to death. All the advanced stats in terms of avoid attacks and stuff are fun.

But, like, he's got to be consistent. Let me ask you a question. We're talking about success rate. Define success rate. And then, you know, isn't it possible that Charbonnet can be a more consistent runner, have more higher success rate, but Kenneth Walker is the guy who can break off the 50-yard run, and he can do that twice a year. He can have four runs of 30 yards or more or something like that.

And even though on a carry-by-carry basis, it's frustrating. The success rate might not reflect it, but the production could still be there because he has that elite speed. For sure, but I do think we've seen him lose touches throughout his NFL career, and I think that this could have something to do with it, is that he might be a frustrating player for coaches a little bit. But yeah, success rate is on first or second down, if a player gains half of the yard is required to first down.

So if it's second and eight, if they gain four yards, that's a success. On third or fourth down, if they gain a first down, that's a success. And yeah, there are completely different types of players. The explosives from Walker definitely make him worth getting on the field. But Charbonnet, I went into this on the Kenneth Walker breakdown on that video. So Sharbonnet was one of the few running backs in the league last year, who if you look at their runs where they were hit at or behind the line of scrimmage,

he actually gained positive yards. And Walker did not. So it's like Jonathan Taylor, Bejan Robinson. There's a very few of these running backs who are able to do it. And Charbonnet was one of them. He's very, very good at that. Okay. All right.

Boom! Who's your boom player? And I agree with it 100%. It's a great call. Good job. And by the way, I think you were the most critical of me when I took A.J. Brown, like 16th overall or something like that. I think that that might be you being a little sensitive

in taking that first thing because I didn't say anything critical. I said, wow. I was just surprised. I thought it was cool. Aegea Brown is my boom. And yes, since Adam Azer took him in the first round, I have been rapidly approaching that level of enthusiasm. No, but I didn't take him in the first round.

Took him at the one-two turn. Not quite. Let me see. I think I got the June 2026. I feel like it was like a top. I took him in fifth, fifth pick. So that's 13, 14, 15th overall. Okay. Yeah. I'm, I'm, I'm there. I think I'm considering moving AJ Brown ahead of Drake London. I'm considering moving ahead of Justin, Necoe Collins, for sure. I think, like,

that's where I'm approaching with AJ Brown. I think there's tons of reasons to be optimistic. And I'm going to try not to just ramble for 10 minutes here. If at any point you want to get into this conversation, please do. Because I have a lot, there's a lot to think about with Adrian Brown. but really it could just be as simple as like AJ Brown's really good, Drake May is really good, Josh McDaniels is good at what he does, this could be awesome. So AJ Brown isn't going to like find himself in who's this year's Jackson Smith and Jigba discussions because he's not an early career receiver,

but he really does fit like the exact criteria that Ryan Heath laid out with Ladd-McConkey when he came on your guy's show and talked about McConkey as this year's JSN. He leaves a heavy three-receiver set and heavy shotgun style offense to play with the Patriots, which were one of 10 teams with a sub-50% rate of three-receiver sets in 2025. New England ranked eighth in under-center dropbacks and ninth in under-center play-action dropbacks. I'm focused on under-center drop-backs because they are efficiency-boosting plays, and AJ Brown is just one year removed from averaging three yards per outrun in a shotgun-heavy offense.

And so, like, if you split it out, and I did an episode with Ben Gretsch on this, if you want to check out the former CBS legend. Ben Gretchen and I just getting super, super nerdy and deep into the weeds on per round data. All of this personnel stuff really, really affects it. And some of these players get boosted in a significant way by playing in more big personnel, under center, play action-heavy offenses.

That's what we saw early in AJ Brown's career in Tennessee. In Philadelphia, it wasn't really the case. And still, he averaged over three yards per out run just one year ago. he's one of nine receivers with a single season yard per outrun rate above three during the time that I have that data available, that's 2019

touchdown 25 and that was with the Eagles just one year ago. I think people like don't remember how good that season was I guess and are like nervous that he's dropped off but like I don't know man he's he's wide receiver three in yards per outrun during his time of the NFL behind only Pukinuku and Tyree Kill

and he's wide receiver one from under center specifically again he didn't get very many of those opportunities with the Eagles, but 4.4 yards per out run from under center throughout his career. Pukunuku is next at 4.3, and then there's a massive drop off Nico Collins at 3.7. I really think AJ Brown might be just one of the best players in the league, and we don't really know it because he's always been in low-volume offenses. So I want to dig a little bit deeper with the per round data. I want to talk about stuff on Diggs. Diggs last year was... This is what I said the day after that draft. I came on

the show and Heath wasn't on the show. But, you know, I know you can make the argument they really spread the ball out in New England, but they didn't when Stefan Diggs was on the field. He just wasn't on the field that much, but he got a ton of targets. So his target per out run rate was like top eight. He was top ten in almost every like valuable metric basically. Sorry, Stefan Diggs was pretty much. Pretty much top ten and all the per opportunity basis metric.

Yeah, my fault. He was he was 20th in target per out run rate, 24.4%. But the other stuff, yards per route run, first down rate, he was really high. Okay, go ahead. And when he got to be on the field in a full-time role, it didn't drop off at all. So sometimes, like Keenan Allen, for example, they get this really high per route production, but that's because they're coming on to do specific stuff and they're targeted on those plays. Diggs just was in a part-time role, I think, because he's old.

So he was YDC.R. 10 in fantasy points per run in this New England offense last year, and that was with only four touchdowns and still was Widertieubertin in fantasy. points per run. He had a thousand yards in this part-time role, 68% route share for Stefan Diggs last year and still a thousand yards. On a per opportunity basis, he was top 10. I think AJ Brown is better than Stefan Diggs, and I think he's going to play more, and I think he's going to score more. So Diggs had a 19% red zone share and only 8% of the end zone targets for the Patriots last year. He played 17 games. He had 8% of the end zone targets. Adjad Brown has a freaking 34% career rate when it comes to like end zone targets in games that

he's played. That rate has never been below 21% in a season. That was his rookie season when it was 21%. His red zone target shares as a member of the Eagles have been 24%, 27%, 31%, 34%. Diggs's rate was 19. I think AJ Brown is an alpha in a way that Diggs isn't really. And he has like no target competition on this team. Like what's really crazy about the Eagles rates and how high they are, which is basically like league high numbers, is he's playing alongside Devante Smith, who I think pretty much all of us agree is like a top, at worst, like a top 15 wide receiver talent in the league, like a legitimate like potential wide receiver one type of talent. And still, AJ Brown is completely dominating all these target shares. And now he goes to the Patriots and it's like, Romeo Dobbs. Like Romeo Dobbs is

a good player. He was an important, reliable player for the Packers. He topped out at 21% in terms of target per route run rate across his four seasons with the pack. Because it was always between 19 and 21%. I think we know who he is. Dobbs is a competent ex-receiver who can work down the field and open things up for the better catch-and-run players. We've seen Jane Reed, Tucker Kraft, Christian Watson, all of those guys put up really good numbers on a opportunity basis because I do think they benefit from playing alongside him. He's an ideal wide-de-servee team where he's just good enough to get the defense's respect, not good enough to him. make his quarterback lock in on him. I think we know who the quarterback's going to be locked in on as

long as he can stay healthy. It's AJ Brown clearly. And so the last thing I would throw in here is I did an episode with Ryan Heath recently on Beyond the Box score where we talked about which stats matter in terms of predicting future fantasy scoring. Ryan digs into all the previous year's data and then how strongly it correlated to the next year's fantasy points. And some really interesting things stood out to me in doing that exercise, first of which was that first read target rate correlates more strongly with future fantasy point production than actual target rate. The next two are both about first downs. First down per route run rate correlates more strongly than yard per route run rate. And I think yard per route run rate is generally thought of as like the best receiver stat or one

of the best receiver stats. Just total first downs correlates more strongly than fantasy points per game. And I mean, Heath definitely knows this from doing projections and stuff. Like you pretty much can't beat fantasy points per game. Like if you just look at last year's fantasy points per game, that's pretty instructive. You're probably going to do a really good job of just like predicting what's going to happen the next year for the most part. Just getting first downs, total first downs, correlated more strongly.

And if you look at AJ Brown, he's been one of the absolute best in the league at creating first downs during his time in the league. And then he also has these massive first three target shares, again, playing with Devante Smith. He had a 42% first-3 target rate in 2024, which was just behind Malik Neighbors, who was on a Giants team that had no one else. It was neighbors at 42.8%. AJB at 42.1%.

The next highest was Drake London at 35%. Even last year, he was seventh in the league, higher than Tray McBride, higher than Chris Alavi, higher than Zay Flowers, or guys who were clearly the top option in their offense. And AJ Brown had a 35% first-reterter rate while playing alongside Devonte Smith. So we're one year removed from wide receiver one in the whole league types of rates from AJ Brown. And now he's to play with less target competition than ever before, with by far the best passer he's ever played with in a high scoring and past heavy offense. Like, unless he's total dust or gets hurt,

I think he easily is a strong bet to lead the wider position in scoring. I don't know about leading the position in scoring, but I'm very comfortable with where I drafted him. and you think taking him over Jefferson is pretty interesting. Definitely could see it. Heath, you've been sort of cautious with AJ Brown. Any changes? You're muted.

No, I am, listen, I have been cautious. I think I've got him in round three now. I hope he's still A.J. Brown. I think all the things about Jacob talking about how good A.J. Brown was. And I do think you have to say was because he wasn't last year. It's just like you hope that he's still the same guy and that the knee is okay. I was thinking about how he's kind of Mike Evans adjacent. He's four years younger, so it's not the same argument.

But it's older wide receiver who has some injury questions going to a new team that has not recently been very high and wide receiver targets. now there's there's differences too brown's better than mike evans and brown's younger than mike evans um i do i do worry about the knee and worry about the health and worry if he's still quite the same guy and yeah just hold on because i think a j you're right in one sense like there was a report for what it's worth a report by jeff mclean of the philadelphia inquirer said the rams were interested in a j brown but they were not satisfied with his medicals. And he also said,

McLean said that the knee was part of the reason that the Eagles didn't get more for A.J. Brown. Because he went, he went for a 2027, fifth round pick and a 2028 first round pick. And people thought that was underpaying or a good value for A.J. Brown. So I think that's really important to note that he might have a knee issue here.

All right. We got to, let's move on to me. Yay. Red white and boo. Boom. Red is pumped the brakes, going a little too early. White is perfect draft value. And boom is going to exceed that draft value and maybe win your league. All right. Red, Caleb Williams. He is QB6. Seventh overall. I love Caleb Williams. I really want to get Caleb Williams. Going into the off season, I thought this is a guy I'm going to target. Maybe he'll be somewhere around 90th overall. Something like that. Nope. He's QB6 and he's 72nd overall. He's 23 picks ahead of Brock Purdy. Brock Purdy has finished as a top. six quarterback in two of his last three seasons on a per game basis. He's 24 picks ahead of Matthew Stafford. Matthew Stafford won the MVP last year and was, I think, QB2 per game, right up there.

He's 24 picks also ahead of Patrick Mahomes and Jackson Dart. So I love Caleb Williams. He could be better than all of them. I would rank him ahead of all of them. I'm not willing to take him two rounds earlier than all of those guys. You know, that would be purty, Stafford, Mahomes, Dart. Not to mention Trevor Lawrence is in that mix. There's just such good quarterback value that I think, while I do like Caleb a lot,

I don't think he should be basically in his own tier ahead of all those other guys. White, so the right ADP is T. Higgins, 38th overall, wide receiver 19. This is where he's finished on a per game basis in his last five seasons, beginning with 2025 and working backwards. 16th per game, fifth per game, 42nd per game, 13th per game, and 13th per game. One bad year in 2023 when Joe Burrow was heard and Joe Burrow was kind of bad. Other than that, he's been top 16 per game. T. Higgins is going as wide receiver 19 right now.

It's perfect. I don't think he is huge upside unless that target per route run rate comes back up to where it was in 2024. That seems a little unlikely. But I think he's a really safe pick in round three. And boom! Josh Downs. 97th overall, wide receiver 44 in ADP.

He ran more than 80% of the routes in three games last year. And honestly, he didn't do that well. but Daniel Jones was not the quarterback for any of those games. The year before, he ran 78% or more of the routes in six games. He scored 19.5, 22.2, 19.4, 6.2, 15.1, and 19.4. That is 19.4 or more PPR fantasy points in four of six games, in which he ran 78% or more of the routes in 2024. They talked about moving Josh Downs outside more.

Got to get him on the field. Obviously, they lose Pittman. I am concerned about Daniel Jones. I am concerned about the offense. but this is the value pick here of the three wide receiver slash tight ends on this team. Wide receiver 44, 97th overall for Josh Downs. If you want to be a little cautious and get a piece of the Colts offense, which was number one in the league last year when Jones was healthy,

this is the guy to get really good on a pro-out basis. And I watched more film last night. Every time I watched Josh Downs, I am amazed at how he just destroys cornerbacks, gets open, makes people look stupid. and he will have his best year. I think, you know, Boom is a little crazy. I don't think he's going to win you your league. But I think he could be somewhere around wide receiver 24.

Okay, Red, Caleb Williams, White T. Higgins, boom, Josh Downs. Any disagreements here? I like Caleb Williams this year. I think your reasoning is fine, though. Like, there's a lot to like a quarterback. I love Caleb Williams. Somebody had. You could be amazing.

It's about that time of year where I start doing the somebody had a good tweet, and I can't remember who it was. so I'm not going to give them credit. But it was basically talking about how the top five quarterbacks are cheaper than they've ever been. And guys in the Caleb Williams range are more expensive than they've ever been. Like, we just kind of smushed QB together. And I think that kind of makes sense because you get to a certain point in the draft where, like, do I take a guy who I know is the starting quarterback, or do I take maybe Josh Downs?

And most people are going to choose Caleb Williams and the starting quarterbacks over him. but they also don't want to draft a quarterback in round two so that the elite guys have fallen down. I think it's hard for me to justify Caleb's ADP, but it is also a pretty easy fix. He just has to learn how to throw the ball where he wants it to go. Yeah, he's phenomenal.

I'm really excited for him, but yeah, he's had a... He's not phenomenally accurate. No, he's one of the lead. J.J. McCarthy's the only quarterback who had a lower completion percentage than Caleb Williams. Also, he runs a lot, but he doesn't run a lot near the goal line. So he's not scoring a ton of rushing touchdowns.

Caleb Williams has three goal line carries in his career. Also, I think probably more important than my reaction to those names was Dan's reaction to your soccer ranch in the chat. Well, he's wrong, first of all. Dan saying, note for Adam, while I was heated and ready to rant because of the red card, it's an example of Adam and me, Dan, not knowing soccer. Apparently, regardless of intent, it's always a red cleats up. Well, I was reading an article, I think, from the athletic this morning that said there was a little bit of discretion there that they could have, like they took away a red card from Messi earlier in the tournament, tournament, tournament. So I don't think it's, it's, but my further point was if that play is what gets you a red card.

And a red card gets you disqualified, you can't be replaced and you're suspended for at least one match. Then red cards are stupid! And we need to do something about red cards and how stupid they are. Dan is stupid too, because he also is already talking smack about tennis. We're a month and a half away from our match. I'll be getting waxed this year, according to Dan. I have not closed the gap at all. The gap is getting wider.

How is the gap getting wider when you never play? And I play 6062 is what he's predicting. It will not be the case. I feel pretty decent about it. But we'll see. You're lucky that I'm injured, Dan. Dan Schneier. Also, I hope all of you will watch the match.

We're going to stream it. It's going to be fun. We're going to raise a lot of money. I think we should play some doubles with Jamie and Heath personally and make Dave the ballboy, but we'll figure out creative ways to raise some money for St. Church. I'd love to do that. It's actually, it's July.

I should mention draftathon is coming up. FFT Open is coming up. We're expanding from 24th. We've gone from 8 to 12 to 24 to now 36 leagues in the FFT. open. That means if we sell out all of our spots, we're going to raise $99,000 for St. Jude is unbelievable. The best thing we do is this draftathon. So more info on that. That'll be like probably three-ish weeks away where we start putting those spots up maybe a little bit later than that. But if you want to be in the FFT Open, you have plenty of opportunities, 36 leagues.

And yeah, all goes to St. Jude. Thanks to Jacob Gibbs for coming on. Watch be on the box score. Thanks to Heath Cummings for coming on. Watch FFT Dynast. Dynabu Stee. Thanks for Dave Richard for coming on. Thanks to Dave Richard for coming on. Watch FFT Express in five minutes. Dave and I are going to be recording that. And everybody have an awesome fourth. USA all the way. See you later. Podcasts. Now streaming on Paramount Plus. Beth and Rip are back in Dutton Ranch. This life here is going to work. Is it?

We'll make it work. Starring Kelly Riley A Legacy is a beautiful thing That only if it survives Cole Houser What's gonna work? Ed Harris Family is the only thing we're fighting for And Annette Benning

I can make this a lot harder for all y'all And peace will have to wait Dutton Ranch, new series now streaming On Paramount Plus