Fantasy Football Today - Fantasy Mistakes to Avoid! Round 1 Busts, Camp Risers & Vegas Props! (07/31 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 31, 2026

Help us raise money for St. Jude Children's Hospital here: https://tinyurl.com/FFTDonate2026Who's climbing fantasy football draft boards, and which first-round stars could disappoint in 2026? The FFT crew highlights the biggest training camp risers (2:48), including Kenneth Walker III, Malik Nabers, Deebo Samuel, Ladd McConkey, & more before debating the Round 1 players most likely to bust (16:28), featuring Christian McCaffrey, De'Von Achane, and Justin Jefferson. They also make their picks on a wide range of Vegas over/under player props (29:55), breaking down projections for Joe Burrow, Ashton Jeanty, Trey McBride, and many more to help you dominate your 2026 fantasy football drafts.Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcastsWatch FFT on YouTube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ 

Good news, everyone. This is your last week without football for the rest of the year. And better news, everyone. We're here on fantasy football today on CBS Sports Network and tell you who to draft and who to avoid on this Friday afternoon. What's going on? I'm Adam Azer for Fantasy Football today with Dave Richard, Heath Cummings, and Jamie Eisenberg. Today, we're going to look at Vegas player props. Are we going over or we going under? We're going to tell you which first round picks we're most worried about being a bust. And we're going to tell you the biggest risers in training camp because there's a lot of buzz out there

that we need to keep up with. First, question for the three of you. Jamie, you can go first. You're starting a fantasy football league with your friends. First problem is you've got to find 11 friends, Jamie. Give me your ideal fantasy format for this new league. It would be PPR. It would be three receivers, one flex, one quarterback,

and it would not include you. I was going to say, I thought I could be one of the 11. Heath, how about you? What's your ideal fantasy format? Dynasty, Superflex, half ppr, half point per first down. And if I have 11 friends that are really into it, give me a little IDP. Oh, I'm not in. Dave, same thing to you. I don't like the idea of one flex. Let's have more flex. Let's have four flex. One quarterback, one running back, one wide receiver, one tight end, four flex spots, half PPR, bonus points for big plays. That's the type of league that I'm down for.

Ooh, okay, okay. Make it a super flex and I'm in. It doesn't sound like I'm getting invited to any of these, though. Let's start, guys, with our biggest training camp risers. We're trying to follow the buzz from the beat riders, from the coaches and what they're saying and trying to figure out what actually is worth following here. So we'll take a look at Jamie's camp risers right now,

and you got Kenneth Walker on there. It seems like he's having a great. camp and the Chiefs want to get him very involved. Jonathan Brooks is a riser. Parker Washington is going to be a first round pick in fantasy by the end of August. Josh Downs has been great, Ladd-McConkey. Take us through your list here of Walker, Brooks, McConkey, Parker, Washington, and Downs. Yeah, I think Walker, you can make a case that he could be a first-round pick based on what

we're hearing out of Kansas City. I'd prefer to get him in round two. But you're looking at the situation where it's an Andy Reid running back, and I think he's been waiting to have a player like this for the last several years. Chiefs were 32 in rushing yards last year. They just were struggling to run the ball. And now you have Patrum Holmes coming off a significant knee injury. You have an aging Travis Kelsey.

You have a potentially big problem at wide receiver with Rashi Rice. If he misses any time, the rest of that receiving core is obviously tough to trust. But I think Walker is going to have a big season if he stays healthy. He will not produce like he did in the playoffs last year where he was better than every running back that we saw last season, including Christian McCaffrey, in that playoff run. But I do think we're looking at a career season for him. In the case of Jonathan Brooks is just staying healthy, that's the biggest thing for what we're hoping for right now. It's just going to be a cool story for a guy that missed all of 2025 with his second consecutive ACL tear at 2024.

But he could be the best running back for the Panthers. So it's getting tougher to say draft Chuba Hubbard ahead of Jonathan Brooks at this point. In the case of the three receivers, McConkey just benefiting from, I think, no Keenan Allen, the addition of Mike McDaniel, the health of the offensive tackles there with Rishon Slater and Joe Alt. And then you're just hoping that Justin Herbert leans on Ladd-McConkey to a high degree. and then in the case of Washington and Downs, I set it on our fantasy football today podcast. If you like Washington and you want a version of him,

just get Josh Downs a little bit later because like you said, the hype for Parker, Washington, getting a little out of control. But everybody in Jacksonville loves this kid. He finished last year as such a high note, and I think he's going to be the go-to option for Trevor Lawrence. Just a lot of mouths to feed in Jacksonville, but I think he'll be the best receiver for the Jaguars.

And then Downs should just benefit in a huge way without Michael Pittman there. I think we get back to seeing him over 12 ppr points per game like we saw in 2024. Heath, can you get on board with the Parker Washington hype with the potential obstacles for him of crowded receiving core and also just a small sample size of him actually being a contributor for fantasy? I have a really hard time getting on board with just about anybody catching passes in Jacksonville because I think Liam Cohen's obviously really good at what he does and this is going to be a successful offense, but they're talking about Brenton Strange is going to be very involved. Travis Hunter is going to play a few snaps at wide receiver. Jacobi Myers always gets seven targets per game, and Brian Thomas Jr. is the most talented guy there.

And so I think what Jamie said is right. If you really want a piece of this offense, it's probably Trevor Lawrence that you draft and just trust that Liam Cohen's going to keep the motor going. The thing that really makes it difficult is that a lot of times when there's too many malice to feed, you think if one guy gets hurt, then we'll be okay. And I'm just afraid if one guy gets hurt,

then Travis Hunter just moves into more snaps at wide receiver, and it's still too many mouths to feed. Okay. Now, for Kenneth Walker, Dave, how high are you willing to go? Because Jamie, that's obviously a riser on Jamie's list, but Jamie's been pretty high on Ken Walker for a while. In fact, last week he said something like, I can't get enough of Ken Walker. How are you feeling about him, Dave? Not as high as Jamie is. I do like the profile for Kenneth Walker, but I also know his history.

We know that he's missed time with injuries. And as much as we want to say that Kansas City is just going to turn this offense over to Kenneth Walker and become a run-heavy offense, it's still Patrick Mahomes under center. And Patrick Mahomes isn't on the Pupp list, isn't limited in practice. He's still going to do his thing for the offense. Does Kenneth Walker give the chiefs a running presence? Of course he does. And he's going to be good.

But I'm a little nervous taking him in round two. There are some other running back, Sequan Barkley, Derek Henry, Amarian Hampton, Ash and Jendy. I don't know how many of those guys would Jamie would take ahead of Kenneth Walker. But for me, I'm taking all of them. ahead of Kenneth Walker. For me, he slides in right under there. If I'm in a non-PPR league, half-PPR league, okay, late round two, no problem. But in full PPR, especially when I want receivers in those first two rounds, when I can't get my hands on a superstar running back, Walker falls to round

three for me. Jamie, last word, Hampton, I think it was Hampton, Barclay, Gentie, and Henry. How many of them are you taking ahead of Ken Walker? Just Gentie, but it's close. I think we're going to C Walker extremely involved in the passing game if the reports are accurate. And again, we're talking about training camp risers. I think you've got to almost say he's a mini camp riser based on what we heard from them this offseason. So when you're hearing Brian Westbrook 2.0, I think we're going to get a lot of receptions going to Ken Walker from Patrick Mahomes, who's not going to run like we saw last year because he just doesn't have to anymore. Okay, Dave, Richard. You are a Giants fan overnight.

You are all in on Malik neighbors, it seems, very encouraging. He's one of your risers, along with Bejel Tootin, who is one of the Jaguar, one of the many Jaguars. They're going to win the Super Bowl, by the way, that are having a great camp. And Jalen Coker is also on your list of camp risers. That would be Neighbors, Tutan, and Coker. And today, this morning on Fantasy Football Today, you said you would take Malik Neighbors in the second round. That was after sleeping on it last night. Well, now you've had some lunch and you've digested it, Dave.

Are you still willing to take Malik Neighbors in the second round? I had two lunches at him. And yes, it's late second round, but it's exactly the right spot for Malik neighbors, particularly when you think about what we want from a wide receiver in the National Football for our purposes, for fantasy football. Eight plus targets per game, okay, he's done that two years in a row, the limited year last year, and then the big rookie year. Huge upside as far as receiving ability.

His acceleration looks like he's great. He's cutting really well. He said himself, the second surgery he had, the timeline that was reported was incorrect. And he's been running routes for weeks. Training camp just opened. If you had told me on Monday that Malik Neighbors was going to be in my second round and my rankings, I would have told you that you were crazy. But every indicator suggests that he's going to be ready for week one.

And every indicator, not only with what we saw from Jackson Dart last year, but what we know about Matt Nagy and the number one receiver in his offenses when he's calling plays, there's volume to be had there. This dude, if he hadn't gotten hurt, he would have been a first round pick in fantasy. Now we're getting him not just round two, but late round two, or maybe even round three if he slides that far. I think that that's value for fantasy managers that are looking for a stud-wide receiver, and I think Malik Neighbors will deliver. Okay, I know Jamie's not there to get to round two for Malik Neighbors. Heath, how do you feel about neighbors right now? Listen, I think in a best-case scenario world, Dave, is just early. If we get to the end of training camp and we know that the vast majority of drafts happened that last week before the season,

and Malik Neighbors has had zero setbacks in training camp. Then late round two is exactly where he's going to be. I think it's a little early to do that now. It's been great to see him looking good. And he's certainly in a better place than he was. I had him early round four. I've got him late round three. I think if we get through a couple of weeks with no setbacks and he's a full go,

then maybe he gets into that late round two range. I'm just not sure you have to do it right now. Okay, Dave, Bejel Tootin looking good. Jalen Koker. is climbing a little bit. Is that a problem for Tedroa McMillan? Talk about those two guys real quick. Tutin and Coker.

Well, let me answer your question. Yeah, I think it is a little bit of a problem for Tetero McMillan because by the end of last season, both of these guys were doing good things for the Panthers, and it was Coker who was actually putting up more touchdowns than Teteroa McMillan. Now, it's a second year for McMillan. Third year for Jalen Coker. We'll see what these young guys can do.

But the early camp reports out of Carolina have been that Jalen Coker is the one who's working as an inside, outside, receiver just as much as Tedroa McMillan, and he's making plays with his short area quickness, which is the strength that he had when he came out of college as an undrafted free agent into Carolina. I think you could do a lot worse than Jalen Coker with a middle to late round pick. I don't know if we were even drafting him in our offseason drafts. As for Bachel Tootin, the drumbeat is only getting louder. Liam Cohen is doing his part to make that drumbeat deafening by calling him an all-around back, someone with 4-2-8 speed, someone who's improved so much

from year one to year two. He's actually asking him to stop focusing on holding onto the football and just focus on running. That's the type of talk that you get from someone who could be a breakout running back. His past protection needs working. Chris Rodriguez was an addition that the Jaguars made, and he's going to be a factor in how their run game goes. But Basial Tutin is someone that stands out to me as a worthy low-end RB2 with low-end RB1 upside if things break right in Jacksonville. And this was a rushing offense last year. That was very average. And so, anything that Tutin can do to have hyper efficiency to his game, we'll send that run game to the moon

and actually make things worse for the passing game in Jacksonville because he'll be so good that he takes pass attempts away from Trevor Lawrence. Okay. And Heath, let's take a look at your risers here. And we have, you know, you're hitting the fresh news of Debo Samuel going to the 49ers on a one-year deal. Also, Ramondre Stevenson, and Mike Washington, Jr. So Debo Samuel, Ramondre Stevenson, Mike Washington, Jr.,

are three risers. for Heath right now. Yeah, we've talked about this with Diggs and Dibbeau and probably even Keenan Allen, that eventually they were going to sign somewhere and they were going to be risers and Dibbo signed in probably the best possible place that he could have. It's a situation where he already knows the offense. The coach already has gotten the best out of him in the past. Yes, Debo's getting older.

Yes, Debo's injury prone. Guess what? So is every other offensive weapon on the team. It may be that Dibo gets hurt. maybe someone else does and all of a sudden he's seeing eight to nine targets per game, but I think he's a solid wide receiver four now. Should be probably the third option in the passing game most weeks. We're also going to see him do just a little bit of the work that Christian McCaffrey has done,

maybe even be sort of a handcuffed to Christian McCaffrey, could really take off in the run game if McCaffrey goes down. Debo was someone that was certainly an afterthought in drafts a month ago. He's not like he's going to jump up to the top seven or eight rounds, but he is someone that you can draft as a depth-wide receiver for. Ramandre, I don't want Remandre to be a riser, but all the reports are that it's kind of the same thing that it was last year. Ramandre Stevenson is still the clear lead running back in this offense.

I actually have him ahead of Trevion Henderson in my projections. I would still draft Henderson higher because I think the upsides higher for him. But if you told me both guys play 17 games, it's probably going to be Remandre Stevenson again. And then Mike Washington was just kind of like an epiphany that I had on the plane flying back from vacation. He has almost no competition for the RB2 role. We think this offense is going to be better. I know that nobody wants to think about the possibility that Ashton Genty could miss time. But we draft these handcuffed running backs because it could happen.

And his situation, his speed, his big play upside and just being one injury away from probably 15 to 18 touches, per game, he should be drafted higher amongst the handcuffs than he has been. We've done some drafts where he wasn't drafted at all. I don't think he has an ADP on some sites. I like him in round 12. Okay, I read the article. Heath wrote a good one

on Mike Washington and further explain those points. Also, I said to Dave on FFT Express the other day, I think you could argue Travion Henderson going 50th overall is the worst value on the board. I could feel like a total idiot if Ramandre gets hurt or fumbles as

way out of the job, but I can't imagine spending the 50th pick on a backup running back. It's insane. Let's see if things change. All right. When we come back, I can't imagine spending a first round pick on Devon A. Chan. It's insane. What about Christian McCaffrey? Who are the round one players that could end up being busts this year?

We'll talk about it when we come back on fantasy football today here on CBS Sports Network. First round picks are great. They're super safe. They're always awesome. except last year when five of 12 were not. Sequin Barclay was the third overall pick. C.D. Lamb was the fifth overall pick, and some of this was just injury-related, of course.

Justin Jefferson, sixth overall. Malik Neighbors, eighth overall. And Ashton Genty was a first-round pick last year. And he's flirting with being a first-round pick this year, not quite there right now. But we are going to make bus cases for some of the first-round picks that make us a little bit nervous here. And let's start with...

Heath, who are you most likely to avoid? Who are you most fearful for being a big bust in the first round? Yeah, the actual way the question was worded to me is who is the most likely player in the first round to be a bust. And I think we would all agree that's Christian McCaffrey. He may also be the most likely player in the first round to score 30 fantasy points per game, but he's certainly the most likely player to bust. He had 450 touches last year, including the playoffs.

That's way too many. every time he's been at this volume in the past, he's missed time. He is a 30-year-old running back practicing next to a substation that is obviously all kinds. No, that's probably not part of it. But I just think that McAfrey is that guy that if you want to take the big swing at having the best player in fantasy, you draft him. If you want to take the risk of having the guy that plays four games, you draft him. Do we all agree that Christian McCaffrey is the most likely to be a bust?

I do. Yep. Dave, you want to expand here? Because I guess I do, but the thing is, I have zero performance questions with him. Well, I mean, yeah. We could question his efficiency as a runner last year. That certainly went down. And one of the reasons why he had such a great year in PPR leagues is because he had a career high,

7.6 targets per game. So they were running out of people to throw the football to in San Francisco and Christian McCaffrey was an easy target for them. and maybe they stick with that and they take carries off of him, and that's how they try and reduce the work. And the coaches have talked about that. But the bottom line is that you saw on the screen a minute ago, 413 carries, that was just in the regular season.

By the time the playoffs ended, Christian McCaffrey had 450 touches on his body between the regular season and the postseason. And Heath referenced this, the last two times that Christian McCaffrey had 400 plus touches the year after, he dealt with some significant injuries that took him out of our fantasy football lineups, and it stung. And so now, on top of that, he's 30 years old. The track record for guys coming off of 400-plus touch seasons isn't very good. Christian McCaffrey, at least know the risks

involved when you draft Christian McCaffrey. I wouldn't take him until the back half of round one, and even that, I'd be pretty nervous. Okay. James Cook had 385 touches. It's not 450, but it's 385. Jonathan Taylor had probably somewhere around there. he had more catches and a few more carries than James Cook. So he's pulling in the same range as guys who had a lot of work. Again, McCaffrey had more. But McCaffrey had fewer carries. I do wonder if there's a difference between a carry and a catch for a running back, Dave.

Yeah, well, based on the number of catches that he had in carries, I also did that information over the last 10 years of the eight running backs that had as much work as he had. And you're mentioning it fewer carries, more catches. Only half of them were even as good as they were the year prior, the other half, either sat out the season because of a contract dispute or dealt with injuries and saw a significant decline in their PPR per game average. Okay. Jamie, Devon A-chan is a player that you're worried about being a bust in round one.

I literally just got a text from somebody who covers the league that said, I heard Caleb Douglas is killing it. I bet a lot of our people don't even know who Caleb Douglas is. So you're talking about the receiving core for the dolphins that could be potentially miserable. Now, there's opportunities there for these guys to be successful, but they could line up. Let's say Caleb Douglas does crack the starting lineup. They can line up Malik Washington, Caleb Douglas, Jalen Tolbert, Tutuat, well, stop me when any of these guys scare you because I don't think they're going to scare a lot of defenses. But really, it's just about what we're looking at from a coach and quarterback standpoint here.

And that's, I think, where the concern comes in. Because Mike McDaniel's been so good in involving his running backs in the passing game. And really, Tua, has been amazing in doing that. He was second in the NFL in the last two years in target rate to running backs. The first was Shadur Sanders. So if you're looking at the big sample size, obviously Tua has been fantastic at it. He's now going to Malik Willis, who's a very incomplete quarterback when it comes to this because he hasn't had many starts. But just in terms of target rate to running backs in the last two years, Malik Willis is last.

You look at what Devon Ait Chan has done with Tua Tua on the field and without Tua on the field, 25 ppr points per game, 10 ppr points per game when Tua is not there. That's a huge drop-off. Now, again, there's different ways to look at it, which games that he missed and which games two of, which games two missed and how A-chan performed over the last two years. And obviously, when you look at it, the Dolphins were not great last year.

They were 25th in total yards. They were 20th in scoring, like just absolutely not a great football team. So can they potentially be worse? I think so. I just think that Devon A-chan is going to take a step back, and then you just factor in everything around him. The win total is expected to be four and a half, so not a lot of touchdowns there.

if you just go by what Vegas tells us. I just don't want to draft Devon H.N. in the first round. Does anybody? There's no way I draft H.N. in the first round. I don't hate it, but go ahead, Heath. No, I have him in the first round, and I would agree with Jamie that he's the second most likely player to bust. I just also think that it's not to the same degree, but a similar four-upside discussion with H-N,

because he has been one of the most efficient, players in football since he entered the league. Led the league at 5.7 yards per carry last year. He's at 5.6 yards per carry for his career. He's scored double-digit touchdowns every year of his career, mostly on mediocre offenses. And they don't, as Jamie said, like that receiver argument can go two ways. One, there's nobody to scare the defense to keep them away off of A-chan.

Two, there's nobody to throw the football to except for Devon A-chan. I do think it's possible that the fact that the fact that the defense stacking the box is mitigated a little bit by the threat of Malik Willis as a rusher. I would not be surprised if Devon A. Chan is a bust, as Jamie said here. I also wouldn't be surprised if Devon A. Chan touches the ball 350 times and averages 20 fantasy points per game. I would point to the offensive line as a strength in Miami. I think having Malik Willis as quarterback can enhance the rushing efficiency of Devon A. H.N. And I think he'll get a lot of work. he did last year two games without

Tuatung of Aaloa. He still had 19.5 touches per game. Not a lot of targets, and I think that's the biggest concern of all, because with Tuatunga Vailua, obviously, Tua is checking down a ton. He wants to get the ball out fast. A. Chan's his guy. Malik Willis won't do that. And 43% of

ACHAN's total PPR production last year came through the air. So if you cut that in half, we're talking about reducing his per game averages and PPR from 20 points per game to 16 points per game. That doesn't sound great, but that's still somebody that's worth considering in the back end of round one, early part of round two, especially since there is an upside case here because we've seen him have

two monster seasons in a row. And if the Dolphins just overload him with work and they do feature him in the passing game, then he could take off and we could be wrong about how this season goes for H.M. Adam, you brought up something maybe last week or earlier this week, I forget, but just about the potential of when the seasons toward the end and they are looking toward their draft, which I'm sure is going to be near the top. Their draft picks, do they shut down Devon H.N. Because they want to make sure this guy is healthy. So small thing to consider it, but I think that's something that's on the table.

Yeah, I don't think they're going to tank. He's completely healthy. We're going to sit him. But I think if he's nursing some type of injury, there's almost no chance they're fighting for a playoff spot, in my opinion. So I don't think he's going to play through it. It's not really a big factor for me, but it might be for other people. Okay.

And I'll just nominate someone else. that I really don't think anybody in the first round is going to be a bust. I'm sure it will happen, but there's no one I look at it. Oh, I'm not drafting him. But I haven't drafted Justin Jefferson. And I look at Justin Jefferson at his very best, 2021 to 2024. In those four seasons, he averaged between 18.6 and 22.2 points per game in his healthy games. He did a few games where he left early.

It was like a week 18 where he barely played. In those years, the worst Minnesota offense, for him was 4,379 yards. The fewest amount of touchdowns was 30. Callowary's never thrown 30 touchdowns. He's been his highest yards per game in the last four seasons is something like 222. You are hoping that Minnesota can get the best out of Kyla Murray

as it has done with Sam Darnold and Kirk Cousins was really good. But those guys were pocket passers. I just don't see the same prolific passing offense for the Vikings. So even if Jefferson bounces back, which he absolutely will. Wide receiver 30 or 32 per game last year is insane. I question if he can get to that 18.6 points per game, which was his worst average in those four great years.

Maybe he could get there, but that feels closer to a ceiling to me. I love Justin Jefferson, a tremendous player. I think he's going to have a good year. I have not had the guts to take him at the end of the first round just yet. He'd probably be closer to something like 15 or 16 for me. I don't know how you guys feel. Jamie, how do you feel about Jefferson?

He's a late round one pick for me. So I would take him over to Von Achen, for example, if we're comparing those players. But look, there's obvious reason for concern. The fact that Kyler is struggling early in camp and J.J. McCarthy's out playing him. I don't know if that's a good thing for McCarthy or just a disastrous thing for Kyler Murray. But that's going to sway a lot of people on how this goes if McCarthy is a starter again. We're probably all running away from Justin Jefferson. I wonder if he's even a round two pick if that's the case based on what we saw last year.

But the thing I always go back to, and it's hard to justify that this is the reason to draft him. but it's the small sample size we have with Carson Wentz. And so when he had a competent quarterback, and yes, pocket passer versus non-pocket passer, Wentz is more in line with the guys you mentioned, 16.6 ppr points per game or more without scoring a touchdown during that stretch. So I'm hopeful that we get the right type of quarterback production,

whether it is just a better McCarthy or, again, what I would expect is Kyler Murray. And we did see Kyler Murray earlier in his career, but still very similar age, DeAndre Hopkins, when those two guys were together, Hopkins was elite still in the first season. he was with the Cardinals. I'm hopeful that Jefferson's talent and the offense that he plays in in Kevin O'Connell's system allows him to get back to that 16 or hopeful 18 point per game range.

So it's a risk. He definitely belongs in this category of players who could bust. But I'm hopeful, again, Murray better, Murray improved with this system around him and Jefferson just benefits along the way. All right, fellas, we're going to do some Vegas overunders when we come back. We've got a lot more for you, including your tweets at the end of the show. Stick around to fantasy football today. can be fun and informative to look at Vegas over-unders and their best guesses for player props. But when you look at them, you might go, man, these are low. Of course these guys are going to go over these totals. Heath, let's explain why it might not be what it seems.

Because if a player misses the season or four weeks or any time at all, it doesn't, you don't get your money back. So over-unders are factoring in injury risk. The way I look at it is if the over under is 15% below my projection and I don't think the guy is like an extremely high injury risk, then it's a good number. Then I like the over. I don't really like taking unders because where's the fun in that? Well, okay, Heath, hear me out here. Since there are injury risks, don't you think Vegas should go to a per game over under prop? No, because the second that they did that, you would want.

want them to A's or stat out a game that somebody left early. So then we'd be, I agree. No. Okay. That makes sense to be. You know, the other thing is, I don't think Vegas,

if you're listening, I don't think overtime should count if you're playing the over-underer of a football or any game. I think it's kind of ridiculous. I think it should be the regulation total. But let's look at some player props. And you guys tell me if you like the over or the under, and remember,

these are going to be low and these guys missed time. But Joe Burrow over, basically 4,000 passing yards, over under 4,000 passing yards for Joe Burrow. Dave, Heath, Jamie, go. So I view this the same way Heath does. This is a bet on whether or not Joe Burrow can stay healthy. And if Burrow can play even 15 games, I think he's got a good shot to get over this number. I'm encouraged that only Jared Goff is higher than Joe Burrow. That means that they see what we see, that Joe Burrow has a huge ceiling as far as passing goes and does because of those wide receivers. If I were to take a side on it, it would be the over.

Yeah, I've got this at 88% of my projections. So Dave's statement about playing at least 15 games was exactly right. Unfortunately, he's only done that once in the last three years. This is one that I would stay away from because I don't really want to be wagering on Joe Burroughs health. But if I had to take a side, I would take the over. I would take the over as well. Wow. Heath Azers statting the hell out of that once in the last three years. How about three times in the last five years?

Joe Burrough has never had back-to-back-injured seasons. He's played 10, 16, 16, 10, 17, and eight games. Next up, Matthew Stafford, 30.5 passing touchdowns. Matthew Stafford, he got it almost 50 last year. We'll go in reverse order here. Jamie Heath, Dave, taking the over on 30 and a half touchdown passes for Stafford. I think it's a number that's realistic for him to go over. if you're counting on Devante Adams to walk onto the field for week one and get 10 plus touchdowns

for the season because then I think the rest of the group is going to get him enough to get to 31. But man, we've seen it enough. 2021, he was awesome. The next three years, he was not so great. And then comes back last year and he was awesome once again. So the sample size is not ideal. But I think if you're banking on Devante staying healthy, Puka staying healthy, Stafford staying healthy, he should be over 30 and a half.

So I would take the over if I was going to bet it. Yeah, I've got him at 30.7. So this is a pretty easy under for me because you're basically no injury juice there at all based on my projections. And I don't really want to bet on Devante and Stafford and Puka all staying healthy. I agree with Heath. This is an under. And it doesn't mean that I don't like him for fantasy because remember, if you're drafting Matthew Stafford, you're doing it with a later pick on draft analyst. It's a super flex league.

and if it is a 1QB league and Stafford does miss time, you can go to your waiver wire and you should be able to find a decent quarterback there, or you can draft another quarterback late with Stafford and you'll carry two into the season, and that way if Stafford goes down or has a slow start, you have an alternative who can help your team. But if I were to place a bet, it would be on the under.

All right, again, we'll go Dave Heath, Jamie. Then we'll, the next one will do Jamie Heath. Dave, Heath will always be second here. Just keep that in mind. I think I've earned it. Yes. Jack Prescott, 27 and a half touchdown passes Dave. He's been over in each of his past four years when he's played at least 13 games.

So the bet is will he play 13 or more games for Dallas and their playoff hopes are hinging on it? I think he can do it. I love his dual receivers of C.D. Lamb, George Pickens. Jake Ferguson's going to be a factor in the red zone. He always has been. And I think that he can get just over it. I don't know about him getting to like 33 or 34 touchdown. But if you're telling me that he's going to get 30 or 31, I would say, yeah, he can do that.

Take that one. Yeah, this one's 87.3% of my projections. I have him at 31.5. He does have an extensive injury history, so it's a little bit risky. But if I had a lean, it would be on the over. And I would not, if he plays 17 games and Pickens does and Lamb does, he might throw 40. He definitely could if they stay healthy. And if he stays healthy, but he has not had back-to-back healthy seasons since 2018 and 2019.

So coming off a year where he stayed healthy last year, that's the risk. And I think that's why you're seeing the numbers used in our favor. You're getting plus 105 on the over and minus 120 on the under. So Vegas is telling you that it's not necessarily in your favor to bet the over. But again, if those guys stay healthy, DAC, the last four seasons average is 34 and a half pass attempts per game. This is still a defense that I think is going to be dramatically improved to the point where they take away the shootout potential. I don't know if that's the case. And again, Pickens, playing in a contract year, CD Lamb, bouncing back healthy.

it feels like you should be taking the over. And again, if you're getting the odds in your favor, it's worth it to try to make a little extra money. Let's do one more. Let's do Luther Burden, four and a half touchdowns, touchdown catches. Man, for a guy that people are going to be drafting in the fourth round, I hope he catches at least five touchdowns.

But Luther Burden and Jamie, over or under, what do you think, four and a half touchdown catches? This is where Heath's point of, you want to take the over because it's fun and you want to root for Luther Burton because every fantasy player is trying to get their hands on this guy and every fantasy analyst is ranking him or at least touting him as a breakout candidate. So yes, I think it's worth taking the chance on because there's 85 targets gone with DJ Moore there. You are banking on potentially injury risks for the other two guys as well because

Romo Dunzee last year foot injury missed a good portion of the second half this season. Colston Loveland dealt with the shoulder injury in the beginning part of the season. If either of those two guys missed time again, then it should be an even better situation Luther Burton from a target perspective. So hopefully he does get to five plus touchdowns. I would take the chance on this because I do want to see Luther Burden succeed. I hope this isn't just one of those guys that we talk about year over year where the catches are there, the targets are there, the Zayflower's effect where the touchdowns aren't there.

I do think, though, five touchdowns should be realistic for him. I don't like to embarrass you on air, Adam, but I think that you misread this one. I think you were looking at the week one lines Luther Burden to the moon way, way, way over. That's interesting. The first thing that I thought of with Luther was how uninvolved he was inside the 10, inside the five with the Bears last year. And what would it take to change that? And given the running backs that they have and what Colson Loveland can do and what Romo Dunei, frankly, can do inside the 10,

that makes me nervous. But his role in the offense, it would not surprise me, I don't know if the volume being there, but if it was similar to a Munra St. Brown, Jackson Smith & Jigba, a receiver that works inside, outside, crosses the field, runs a bunch of patterns on time with Caleb Williams, and make plays after the catch. I think he can get to five touchdowns. If this number were five and a half, I'd be all over the under.

But it's four and a half. I think he can barely get there, because I'm a little bit worried about how much red zone work he'll do. Okay, yeah, I was definitely not looking at the wrong thing. I think what Heath meant to say was. Adam, you were right. Thank you, Heath. We'll be right back with more over-underers,

running backs and tight ends when we come. come back. Let's get right into the over-unders here on fantasy football today here on CBS Sports Network. I want to thank everybody taking time on your Friday to hang out with us and hope you have an awesome weekend. But before that, is Jemir Gibbs going to go over or under his rushing touchdowns prop, which is 12 and a half. And in the last three years, David Montgomery and Jemir Gibbs have combined for at least 21 rushing

touchdowns all three years. Jamie, Heath, Dave, over under 12 and a half rushing touchdown. For today, I would say the under because I'm nervous about the hold in, you know, any contract situation that we've seen the last several years. I think James Cook is the only one of the seven or eight guys that have had holdouts or hold-ins that have actually had a productive season. It's just not very encouraging. So the longer this last, the more difficult it is, I think, for him to have the type

of year that we're hoping for. I still think Isaiah Pacheco is going to have a role to goal, and I still think the offensive line is worth taking a look at. I want Jemir Gibbs to do everything for this Lions offense. The schedule is fantastic. But if I had to place a bet on it right now, I'm taking the under. It's 85.6% of my projection, so kind of right on the number. I would basically call it a push, but looks like the juice is in our favor on the over.

It's only minus 102 on the over. So I'll take the over just because it's better odds. Adam, it's 21 or more rushing touchdowns from Lions running backs in each of the last four seasons. And yeah, maybe Isaiah Pacheco takes away a few, but he's not taking away 10 touchdowns from Jemir Gibbs. I wouldn't make the over bet now. I'd wait until it sounds like it's close between Jemir Gibbs and the Lions on an extension.

And then once that happens, I will take the over. He's the 101 in my fantasy drafts for a reason. Kenneth Walker, Dave, 925 and a half rushing yards. Are we thinking over or under? It's an easy over as long as he stays healthy. And we're right back to the question where we started last segment. which is, are these props about how good a player is or how healthy they'll be? I'm encouraged to take the over.

I agree in most part that Kenneth Walker is going to have a good role in Kansas City. The offensive line that will work behind is going to be arguably the best that he's ever worked behind. And Andy Reid knows a thing or two about scheming up running back. So does Eric B. Enemy, the offensive coordinator there. It's just a matter of how many games will Kenneth Walker be healthy for? If he's healthy for 12 or 13, I think he can get over this mark. If he's healthy for 17, then I'm underrating him in fantasy games or in fantasy rankings, and he should be an early round two pick and not an early round three pick, which is where I have him.

Yeah, I think this one's a pretty easy over. He's 78% of my projection. I mean, the difficult thing is that the Chiefs often don't play week 17, so Kenneth Walker might be resting for the playoffs. But yeah, I'll go over. Oh, now they're going to sit in week 17. Actually, they'll be eliminated by week 17. Steve. They were last year.

Yeah. Javy? Yeah, it is easy over for me. Again, you're just hoping he stays healthy. I think he should crush this number if he does. The reason why you should be taking him in early round two. Listen, man. There have been some crazy things said on our podcast this week by the same person.

Me, but if you go follow Heath on Twitter, he really, you want to talk about earning something, and deserving something, he really deserves the chargers to just shellack the chiefs twice this year and run away with the position. I'm sure they'll be up to, I'm sure they'll be up two scores in the third quarter. Oh, man. It's just like my favorite bit. All right. A little bit higher of a rushing prop, Ashton Gentie, 975 and a half rushing yards. Jamie, where are you leaning there? Again, I would lean toward the over. You know, I think what we see from him better coach with Clint Kubiak, only better offensive line with the addition of Tyler Linde-Mammat Center, hopefully Colton Miller's

healthy as well as the left tackle. I know Heath made a great case about Mike Washington and, you know, the opportunity that he has if Genti's not there. I'm very curious if Kubiak is going to use two running backs, because I think that could be the issue with Genti because last year he did not share with anybody, Rahim Loster was the number two running back for the majority of the season. So if Gentie does come off the field, maybe there's a little bit of an impact there, but I love the fact that he's slimmed down, no more sugar, everything is pointing toward getting better this year. It just looks like all systems go for what could be one of the better running backs that we've seen. I hope he follows the Bijon Robinson trajectory of

disappointing rookie season over 20 ppr points in year two. I think that's going to come with a lot of rushing production on top of it. So I would take the over for Gent to here. Very slight lean towards the over. I agree slightly lean. You know, he had exactly 975 rush yards in 17 games last year. Adam, he averaged 3.7 yards per carry. That offensive line was terrible. I like Jamie's argument for the over. I like Ashen Gentie.

He is a top 15 pick in full PPR, maybe closer to top 10 and half a non-PPR. I kind of lean under here because he did have $2,975 in exactly 17 games last year. He'll do better than that, but you have to bake in sometime miss for injury. I think they probably like their running back room a little bit better than they did last year, so maybe the share of carries is a little bit lower for Gentie. But yeah, I thought the prop was interesting because it's exactly what he did last year. He actually had exactly 975.5 last year. Just kidding.

How did he get 35? Let's do a tight end. Trey McBride, three McBride six and a half touchdowns this year. Dave, you can start over under McBride, six and a half touchdown. This one's a little fishy because I think they could have gotten away with even seven and a half touchdowns. And this one might make me rethink just how much I love Trey McBride. But remember, I love McBride not because of the touchdowns as much as I do the volume that he gets, the targets, the catches, the yards that come along with it.

I think he should be able to score seven touchdowns this year. I don't think he's getting double digits. But it's because I think he's the best pass catcher in this Arizona offense. I think this Arizona offense is going to be on the field chasing points a lot. And when they did that last year with Jacoby Brissette under center, we saw Tray McBride just rake in the fantasy points. I think something like that is going to happen again this year. Tray McBride was under this over under for the first three years of his career.

Isn't that incredible? It's crazy. I'm under. Yeah, I take the under also. We got all this buzz about Michael Wilson, which I don't think he's going to go away if he's healthy. I still think Marvin Harrison is going to be a factor despite all the negative stuff that's going on with him. And really the thing that makes me concerned, and it's a wild card, is if Brissette struggles in one of the most brutal schedules that we have for any team this year, and they turn to Carson, Do we go back to what Heath said about McBride's early part of his career where it was just tougher

him to get touchdowns? A lot of that was Kyler Murray and just the way that he plays. But you lose Drew Petting. I don't think the system is as favorable as it was. And so I think McBride probably maxes out at six touchdowns. I would take the under. Yeah, under's 125 minus 125. The over is plus 105.

So that should tell you something too. That's Bride's six and a half receiving touchdowns. When we come back, your questions on X after this on Fanon, Tennessee football today. I'm going to finish the show with your questions. Dave, I'll give you this one. Who will have more receptions, Judari and Price or Kenneth Walker? I think it's easy to say Walker, knowing that he's got a workhorse role in Kansas City.

And Jamie's talked about the reports saying that he's been doing well as a pass catcher. We don't know what Price's role will be both before Zach Charbonnet comes back and then after Zach Charbonnet's return. And Charbonnet was the one that played on passing down for Seattle last year. I'm sure he will again this year. Next question for Jamie. If Malik Neighbors looks good to go week one, what should 80P be? 28 to 34, so early round three at the highest.

Oh, that's the final score of the game, too. Giants 34, Cowboys 28, good call. Heath, here's one for you. Debo Samuel, wide receiver 2 or flex? I think he is most likely going to be a flex, but there are enough injury concerns in that offense that if he is the one that happens to stay healthy, then he has wide receiver two upside.

Let's get one more here, I think, maybe two. Oh, a very deep, tight end sleeper for best ball, Jamie. Chico Ococo, if that counts. Greg Dalsitz, if that counts, Gunner Helm, take any of those three, fearing scales. One more, one more. Dave, who is the wide receiver two on the Ravens? It might be Jacoby Lane.

You know, the Ravens did a nice job in the draft, adding physical receivers. I think that's a tell for the type of offense that they want to be. And Lane's been the one who's been turning heads so far in practice. This is a Zayflower's tweet. It could also be a Mark Andrews tweet. Everything's a Dallower's tweet to Heath Cummings. All right, that's it for Fantasy Football Today.

If you like to show, please check out our Fantasy Football Today podcast. anywhere you listen to podcasts. Thanks to Dave Richard, Heath Cummings, and Jamie Eisenberg, and of course the biggest thanks to all the loyal audience for watching and listening.

We really appreciate it. Draftathon leagues, FFT Open leagues, they're open Monday. Don't forget. I'm Adam Azer. We'll talk to you next time on fantasy football today.

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