Fantasy Football Today - Fantasy Philosophies with Jake Ciely (04/19 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: April 19, 2021

We are joined by Jake Ciely of The Athletic to talk some strategy and philosophy. Does anything change with a 17-game season (2:15)? Do RBs become more or less valuable with 17 games? Speaking of RBs, do you prefer to handcuff your own RB or a RB that is not on your Fantasy team (6:08)? ... TE philosophies will be very interesting this season (10:50). Jake is not quite as bullish on the Top 3 as the CBS guys are. But how bullish will we be on the 2021 rookie WRs (18:30)? Also what is our backup QB philosophy (24:45) and which position delivers the most breakouts in Rounds 10 or later? ... We've got a new segment called "Phrases That People Screw Up" (32:55)! Try not to say "I could care less." Also: News and notes (38:10) including some Steelers RB talk as they look poised to select a RB in Round 1 ... Your emails at [e-mail] 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. I'll tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races.

Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben. Did you know that according to FFToday.com, we had a three-way tie for first place at kicker, Daniel Carlson, Young-Wei Ku, and Jason Sanders. Today's guests will be breaking down

this phenomenon for you. So we welcome you to Fantasy Football Today, Adam Azer, Dave Richard, and Jamie Eisenberg, joined by the all-in kid, Jake Seeley from The Athletic. Good morning, Jake. What's up? Is it all-in kid or all-in kicker? All-in kicker.

I knew exactly what he was going to say. As soon as you said three-way tie, I'm like, I know where he's going with this nonsense. I'm still happy to join this show, even though you brought that off off the top. Yeah, Jake doesn't like kickers. He's all about band kicker. I actually did not know. I have never even seen that stat three way. That's actually pretty impressive. Carlson, Koo and Sanders.

Yeah. And then you mentioned the fact that like two of them, nobody even knew who they were like five weeks into the season. I still don't know who they are. Yeah, exactly. Yeah, exactly.

Yeah. By Koo, by the way, only played in 15 games. So per game, he's your number one kicker in fantasy. Dave and Jamie, what's up guys? How we doing? 10.7 fantasy So per game, he's your number one kicker in fantasy. Dave and Jamie, what's up, guys? How we doing? 10.7 fantasy points per game for Young Wae Koo last year. That's pretty good.

It's pretty cool. I'm like Justin Tucker, baby. I'm great. Let's go. All right. Yes. And today on the show, we're going to talk about fantasy philosophies. How are your philosophies or strategies, whatever you want to call them. Philosophies is kind of alliteration, sort of. So we'll talk about how your strategies change in a 17-game season, tight end talk. How bullish are you going to be on the rookie-wide receivers? We're really excited for this class and a few other questions for Jake and for the guys.

And phrases that people screw up. Yesterday or last night when I was recording FFT in five, I said switch to flip instead of flip to switch. Jamie got on me on that pretty quickly. It was a verbal typo. I knew the phrase, but I asked people, what are some phrases that people commonly screw up? And we have some good ones for you. We'll share them. All right, Jake. So first philosophy question, 17 game season. Oh, by the way, follow Jake on Twitter at all AllInKid. He's a senior writer for The Athletic and does great work over there as well.

Does anything change for you with a 17-game season for the first time ever? For the first time? I don't think it really does. The only thing that I probably think of in the back of my head is maybe even a little bit more lean to running backs in your draft, even stash, whether it's early bell cow,

whether it's grabbing some options in the middle or whatever because all i just keep looking at is year after year after year who we're chasing in weeks 12 13 14 the gaskins of the world trying to figure out who the next dolphins running back was going to be last year and all that type of stuff just again the reminder of how much change there is and some people argue and say that's a proponent for not drafting running backs and chasing the waiver wire but But with so many people doing it, I think that the attrition alone of what's probably going to happen in positions, you're going to suffer probably another injury or two. I'm just going to make sure I have the running back depth.

That's really all it is. I'm not going to really change my draft strategy, my in-season strategy outside of just making sure I'm prepared running back wise. So I'm not trying to be the last guy getting, you know, whoever might be that's filling in on week 16 for my championship or week 17 now for your championship. And it dovetails nicely into the depth at wide receiver and quarterback for this year. Wide receiver is going to be super deep this year,

especially when you consider the rookie class quarterbacks have been deep for a long time. I think that going after running backs early is still the way to go. I thought about like, does it, does a 17-game season, does it make the elite-tier quarterbacks a little bit more valuable? Because those are guys that tend to not get hurt. Dak Prescott, divert your eyes from him, forget about him. But does it make the quarterback who quarterback who in theory can get

you Dave we're having a little bit of trouble it's not just me right we're having a little bit of trouble with your connection buddy you're glitchy yeah what do you expect it's been this way for a damn year no it really hasn't been pretty good for a

year so what do you what do I need to do do I need to level court? Are you you need a level internet on this? The flip on my switch the flip. Yeah. Okay. All right. So Dave is making the point about elite

elite level quarterbacks. You want to finish that point? No. Okay. Very good. I think it's a good point, though. Well, which part of the part we heard? Yeah, very good. The. Very good. I think it's a good point, though. Well, which part of it? The part we heard, yeah. Very good. The part we heard, yeah. It does kind of push up that top tier a little bit

if you want to go after it. Well, you talked about attrition at running back. I guess my follow-up to the 17-game season thing, Jamie, I'll throw it to you. You're more worried about injuries at the position? More pounding that they have to take? Could that scare people off of running back and say, well, then they're more likely to get hurt now.

I mean, obviously there's more risk of those guys getting injured because they get injured to the 16 game season already. So, you know, I mean, you just give them an additional game and, you know, additional carries, you know, guys like Derek Henry and Nick Chubb and those guys that are going to, you know, probably be close to leading the league in carries, you know, doing different things than, you know, not doing different things, you know, not, not the pass catching backs. That'll take a little pressure off of

them because of the direct hits that they'll take. So, you know, I think to, to kind of piggyback on what Jake was saying is, you know, and I mentioned this on the FFT and five, it, it may lend, lend itself to taking a few more handcuffs, you know, uh, not necessarily your own handcuffs, but somebody else's handcuffs, but just taking some of these guys and just being patient with them that knowing that it may not take until week eight, week nine, week 10, if you're able to carry those guys, like Jake was saying, you know, you don't want to be chasing some of these guys in week 15, 16, 17, if you're able to pick them up or potentially draft them, knowing that there's a chance down the road that there could be an opportunity

to have one of these guys on your team. Okay. Well, you skipped ahead to my last question, but now I'll make it my second question. Do you like to handcuff your running back or a running back that is not on your fantasy team? Dave, you good? I hope I'm good.

All right, why don't you kick it off? Do you prefer handcuffing your running back, a running back that's not on your fantasy team, or maybe both, or neither? It depends on who the handcuff is. If I'm spending my first round pick on Dalvin Cook, I am going to be interested in getting Alexander Madison, just in case.

If I'm drafting Saquon Barkley, I don't really want anything to do with Devante Booker, unless it's a deeper league. There are going to be some, I don't even know if we can call them backup running backs, but like 1B running backs. I think the kind of running backs that Jamie was just talking about

that I would be interested in getting past the midway point in my draft if they're there. Kenyon Drake, James Conner are going to be two of them where the value I would think would be good if they were put in a position to get a lot of work. But like Jamie said, you've got to be patient with them. It's situational when it comes to handcuffing or running backs. I don't think it's something that you have to do.

And I would have told you last year, you don't have to bother doing it with Christian McCaffrey because you're not going to get a running back who's as good as Christian McCaffrey if McCaffrey were to go down. And it turned out that Mike Davis was pretty darn good for the first half of his time as a starter for Carolina. So it really just depends on how deep your league is, how engaged you are in making waiver moves and trades. And if you don't want to be bothered, then probably the safest thing to do is to get at least one handcuff. Jake, more likely to handcuff your running back or one that's not on your fantasy team?

Neither, just because i'm going for depth i don't really care when i'm drafting whether or not i own the player or somebody else does i just look for kind of what the second point that dave was touching on is i'm not getting backups on my bench like rex burkhead like okay even if another injury happens or what is he going to get me seven instead of five points per game? And who knows when those points will happen? Like you could go down with the Frank Ors and the Adrian Petersons

and all these backups that even if they step forward, you might get one good game out of four or five. So I want guys who potentially step into that lead role, which that's kind of what we're talking about

with handcuffs is people who have that opportunity. But that's all it is for me. If it's somebody else's cool, if it's mine, that's fine. But I'm not going to reach for my own because sometimes if you look at it too, is to go to the cook Madison comparison,

there's no guarantee. As Dave said that, you know, Madison's going to come anything close. And even if he does, it's still a net one running back. If you get somebody else's and they go down, you get two.

that's right. So, so, so then hypothetical hypothetical, let's say you drafted Dalvin cook and your turn is up and you're deciding between Alexander Madison and Tony Pollard, who are you going to take? You know, for situational, I'll probably go Pollard. And it's because if I valued both of this, if Zeke and cook both went down, I'd rather have Pollard. And that's how I would look at it. Okay. You want to maximize your, your value. So it's, you know, it's not like they're both going to get hurt,

Cook and Zeke in week eight, and then you're picking between Madison and Pollard. The hope is, and obviously this is the hope for you as the Pollard manager, is that if Zeke suffers an injury, it's week three or week four. And so now you have Pollard for an extended length of time while still having Cook. Okay. But how about you, Jamie? So same question. But that could work in reverse, though, too, can't it? Yeah, of course. 100%. But again, you're trying to maximize your team's value.

So like Jake said, you're only getting the Vikings running back if Cook goes down. You could be getting the Vikings running back and the Cowboys running back if Zeke gets hurt. Right. Right, but you could have no running back if you get Cook. You could have no running back. And Zeke is the MVP, and now when Cook goes down on week two.

I think you know my answer to that. I'm always going to try and swing for the fences as opposed to get a bunt. It's not a bunt. if you get Cooke and Pollard and Zeke is the MVP and Dalvin Cook goes down on week two? I think you know my answer to that, Adam. I'm always going to try and swing for the fences as opposed to get a bunt. It's not a bunt. I don't like that. You know what I mean. I'm going extremes. You'd rather have the situation of

I want to maximize my team's potential the best way possible. You've got to believe in the backup. I'm trying to get two starting running backs on my roster as opposed to one. You just have to believe that the running back will be 75% of the starter. And if you believe that, then you should prioritize it. Yes, I would take Madison over Pollard in the situation you put out there, Adam.

If you had Cook, you would take Madison. Yeah, I would take him over Pollard. Yeah, I'm taking Pollard 10 out of 10. Yeah, so I think we're split here because I would take Madison too. So Dave and I, maybe Dave and I are old school. By the way, Jamie, if you were bunting,

I would throw up and in on you like so fast. You'd what? I'd throw up and in. I'd brush you back if you were bunting. Probably so. Throw up and in.

Yep. You would throw a 15 mile an hour ball over his head. No, I would get straggler to do it. I'd get the college fan. I think my ear hole just strikes out. You got to make sure you say up and in. I was like, throw up on him.

I said up. See, that's a phrase. Given the things you've told me in the past, that wouldn't be surprising. All right, let's talk tight end strategy here. Because I remember, correct me if I'm wrong, I feel like a few years ago we had, John, you're talking about how you're not one to reach for tight ends.

Is that true, Jake? Right. Still that way? It is true. Still that way? It it is still that way and it's the same thing i said then and i'll say today i'm not going to call anybody crazy to do it if you want to take kelsey at the end of the first round i'm not saying you're stupid to do it uh you know you can draft however you want the reason i just never have done it and i still will never do it is because kelsey has to have last season or two years ago, even if he has, which was a great season, the season in between where it was 1200 some odd yards and five touchdowns. It was like late second round value, which again, it's not a bad thing. And people will say, well, you locked in that advantage at the position. It's just you for me, it's, we're talking about running backs, talking

about what the elite wide receivers are in that same range. I don't like passing on that for somebody who has to bring back equal value or else you're losing a lot. So I get it. I get the leg up at the position, but I still think that if you're smart enough, you know, you look at Darren Waller, you look at Kittle. If he's going back in the third round this year, some other options that can step up in the third, fourth, fifth round where you still have a leg up. It's just not Kelsey's leg up. And you don't run that risk of what you've lost on your investment elsewhere. So again, I understand it. I see it work. I actually have done it in a two tight end league, but that's a different story. In a one tight end league, I just won't ever be the person to do it. Okay. Who then this year are the mid-round tight ends that you would be looking at

if you're gonna pass on uh kelsey so i think that's the interesting thing is like i would always avoid that second tier because it seems like that's the tier that bombs every single season is the fourth fifth round pick so i will look at i like to get guys that had the excitement had the hype and then bounce back for the next season um And then, you know what, I'll even say this. I know we're not talking about them, but I will be somebody who drafts Kyle Pitts as a tight end one. Oh, yeah. I will. It's the fact that, you know, we always talk about the tight ends rarely hit, but they have.

And they're not always first rounders that hit. But even Heath Miller back in his rookie season hit as a tight end one that year. That's way back. All we need you to do is get 550 yards and about six or seven touchdowns. And that's the floor to be a tight end one. So I'll say I have a lot of pits. I think Ingram is going to get a lot of hate and deservedly so for what he did last year. But if the Giants really going to take off this year and he's going to fall down to Ingram's going to fall down to eight, nine, 10, it'll be somebody like that. I look for the value in coming back off the past season. Okay, guys, are you more bullish on Kelsey

at the end of round one and then maybe Waller and Kittle in round two compared to Jake? If it's late round two. Yeah, I think if you're at the back end of the first round and there's, you know, and your intent was I want to come out of my first two picks with a top 10 running back and still

one of those guys are sitting there, that's the type of move I think you make, you know? So if you're picking nine, 10, 11, 12, somewhere in that range and you see like five or six guys that you just, okay, this guy could be the, the top guy of that group or the top guy that's here, whoever you want to phrase it, then, you know, it's not a bad idea to pair that player with Kelsey. I mean, for me,

Waller and Kittle are going to be end of the second, early third, depending on format. So I wouldn't take those guys at that spot it's it's only Kelsey in the first round but I think Jake said it best you know if you're so inclined like you know obviously Chris Towers is bullish on the three tight ends you know just somebody who's you know on our on our show so Jake Chris is saying all three of those guys should be first round picks now clearly I think most of us disagree with that but he's going with the philosophy of get a difference maker at that spot, and that's fine. But I think if you're doing that, you're kind of putting yourself in a position of what happens if they don't do it. And you kind of alluded to that, Jake, with Kelsey.

But you think about last year and even the year before, what happens to Zach Ertz? What happened to Kittle with the injuries? And you factor in – Mark Andrews. Andrews, we know what happened to Kittle with the injuries, you know, and you factor in Mark Andrews, you know, Andrews, we know what happened to them. If they don't hit, you know, then you're not getting a difference maker. And that's even the worst case scenario. It's not getting a late second round value or third round value. You're getting a fifth, sixth, seventh round value.

And you really hampered your team. But to be fair, that can also happen with running backs as well, where you can take a running back and late round one. And then that guy doesn't end up performing. He performs like an RB2. But most people in your league are taking those running backs early, so you're kind of at the same even playing field. If you're taking those tight ends early and they fail,

then you're really putting yourself at a disadvantage. Right. If you're really scared about that, then you're probably looking at going wide receiver in late round one, and you take somebody like Devonta Adams or Tyreek Hill, and you hope like hell that they perform like they did last year. And just to Jake's point last year, Kelsey averaged 20.3 PPR points per game. Hard to believe he's going to do that again. That would have been good for running back four in PPR leagues last year. If he does that again, then he's going to be worth the late

first round pick. There's no question about it. He's going to be worth the early first round. Yeah. In early 2018, in 2018,, not early 2018, this is all 2018, 17.9 PPR points per game. That was good for RB9. That's really also good. He would take that with a late first round pick. Yeah, so why can't he do that again? I mean, he's done it two of the last three years.

Well, it's just because of what happened in 2019, where he still had a really good year. Mahomes got hurt that year. 15.4. He did. That's true. So if it's as simple as Mahomes staying healthy, then I think you can have the confidence to take Kelsey in late round one.

And that's my question, right? Because if Kelsey can do what he's done in two of the last three years, then he's a first-round pick. We're talking, I just looked at the last 10 years of PPR scoring. There have been eight instances of a tight end getting 260 fantasy points, scoring 260 fantasy points. He's crushed that two of the last three years. He's been around 300 fantasy points

two of the last three years. Last year was 313 points in only 15 games. So 260 points, that's Graham twice, Gronk twice, Kelsey twice, Ertz and Waller. And he's just blown that figure away. He's had two of the best tight end seasons ever in the last three seasons. So following up just real quickly,

should we be expecting 2018 Kelsey, which was incredible, but it was 297 points in 16 games. 2019 Kelsey, which wasn't worth the first round pick that Jake said, as Jake said. Or 2020 Kelsey, which was the best version, played only 15 games and scored 313 PPR fantasy points. Jake, if you were going to bet on the closest outcome to 18, 19, or 20 Kelsey, what would it be? It would be 2018. Part of the concern, and I know he's not super old

yet, but you're talking about a lot of wear on him at this point of his career too. And he's been amazing. And I know that young thirties is not is not what you know it's not the 30 running back cliff but i would say expect the 2018 and if that to you is still worth drafting the first round and we can get close to 2020 that's what it is again that's the point again to go back jamie said it again it's if he doesn't if he falls off even if he gets hurt like kiddo last, it's so much bigger of a drop that you lost because you also ignored running back early. So it just double hits you. If he stays healthy, plays 16, Patrick Mahomes is out there every single week, then as Jamie and Dave agreed with, he's a top five pick.

Okay. Yeah, and I'm trying to find the stat and I don't have it, but I did want to look at Travis Kelsey without Sammy Watkins, for what it's worth. Targets did go up for him and Tyreek Hill three straight seasons whenever Watkins hasn't played, but I don't have those stats on me right now, so I'll try to get them.

All right, next question. Jamie, I'm going to let you kick this off. How bullish will you be on this year's rookie wide receiver class? And the way I want to frame it is, is even when rookie wide receivers are good, they're, they're not often great. Um,

last year was an exception. The last year we had three top 24 rookie wide receivers. Justin Jefferson was right around wide receiver. Seven Claypool was around 16th. CD lamb was about 21st or so. Uh, but we've only had three top 12 rookie wide receivers in the last six seasons. We usually get one top 20 guy.

Last year, we had three top 24. And this year's wide receiver class is so exciting and so highly touted, Jamie. How bullish will you be on this year's rookie wide receiver class? Yeah, I mean, I think you could also extend it to T. Higgins and Brandon Ayuk, how they performed last year as well.

You know, Higgins with a healthy Joe Burrow and then I, you know, missed some time, but his points per game, especially down the stretch were just amazing. So I think you have to look at them as first, we got to figure out their landing spots. So we're talking redraft leagues and that will determine, you know, what their target share will be, what their quarterback situation will be, you know, all those things have to come into play. But at the same time, you know, I think once you start to get your, you know, I don't know if anybody's drafting Jamar Chase or Smith or Waddle as starting fantasy receivers, but if you're going to say that they could be number three receivers, if you love your top two, that's the type of gamble you make.

Because as Dave said earlier, the position is so deep that you can get two starters or three starters in three receiver league and then afford yourself to you know get some of these veteran guys or you know retread guys that most people are going to say I don't want them but they still end up having some relevance for you when we're talking closer to the double digit rounds because they're going to be available they're going to be sitting there so I think if you're looking at them as you want to take a swing for the fence, it's really as a number three receiver. And we're probably talking as early as maybe round six. Jake, what do you think of round six? Is that too early for the rookie wide receivers, the best ones? No, I was legitimately going to say around six or seven. And Jamie stole my other point too.

I was going to bring up Higgins and IU and the fact that they were inside the top 36. So if you look at it, yeah, it's a great class. I was actually surprised going back and looking at the ADP from last year and seeing that the highest was CeeDee Lamb and he was still around the ninth round. And I know some people are going to be sitting at home, not my league, but that's the average for the ADP and see the guys behind them. And you go down the list and T. Higgins was basically undrafted. You look at the biggest point being what Jamie just said. I'm going to echo it and repeat it. Landing spot is key. And I'm going to go back to somebody. I don't know if you can see, Oh, I covered up my Michael Thomas Jersey cause I had baseball up. Uh, but Michael Thomas, when he came out, he wasn't the

best receiver in that class on a talent situation. The situation itself where he landed was the fit. That's Justin Jefferson last year. Justin Jefferson wasn't the best two or three wide receivers in the class. The situation helped them tremendously. So if we have Chase Smith and Waddle go to tough situations and all of a sudden we're looking at somebody like Kadarius Honey and he's going to be a starting slot from day one, something like that could push him in front. But to what Jamie said that if he's your third, fourth wide receiver, draft those guys because they have the potential to finish inside the top 25 in that sixth seventh round don't wait till the ninth if you want to make sure you get them so yes you can be bullish but smart at the same time so so just just to give you example Adam Jamar Chase could

go to the Bengals at five with a quarterback he knows in a situation that seems a little bit more appealing he goes to the dolphins that's not as appealing now two of them may make him great and he may be great with two he may get more targets with two but this is where like the decision comes in so that you know chase goes maybe around six with the bangles maybe around seven or eight with the dolphins you know that's the type of thing i think that could sway where he ends up just based on or where sway where he ends up just based on, or where his fantasy value ends up just based on the landing spot of two teams that are looking at.

You can also go to the Lions at seventh overall, and that'll make it even worse. You go to the Lions at seventh overall, too? Would that make him worse? Why would that make him worse? He's going to dominate target. Right. Jared Goff is not a complete clown.

He might get good volume. Jared Goff is not a completely incapable quarterback. Jared Goff made Robert a completely incapable quarterback. He gives us made Robert Woods and absolutely because he threw like a bunch of for those guys. Well, but, but three years ago during their Superbowl season, Jared Goff was throwing the ball downfield.

He's became, he became more of a short yardage, a short, I don't know, short area thrower. Uh, recently, I don't know.

People, people are so down on Jared Goff. He's capable of making a wide receiver. Good. I think I'm really a Jared Goff is good or bad question so down on Jared Goff. He's capable of making a wide receiver good. I think he's not capable of winning the Super Bowl. This isn't really a Jared Goff is good or bad question. This is Jared Goff. Or Hurt to Marte, fantasy-wise. Well, I mean, you can look at the opportunity to throw Smith or Waddle on the Eagles,

potentially, and we're looking for a deep, amazing threat on that team and Hurt's now being the full-time quarterback. And you go back to, I think this is a good comparison also to bring into this is Jalen Rager. I'm going to have a lot of Jalen Rager because everybody hates the guy

after not doing much in his rookie season. So remember the Ragers, the Henry Ruggs of the world can be, that's the floor. Is that just everything goes wrong, nothing ever hits. And that's why a sixth, seventh rounder makes sense. Jerry Judy, there's another great one. And I just want to point out,

I talked about this on FFT in five, wide receivers, rookie wide receivers, it's almost a guarantee they're going to get off to a slow start. Justin Jefferson had a 1,400-yard season, one of the best rookie seasons ever. He had 70 yards on six targets in his first two games. So I think adding a 17th game, it's not a huge deal, but it maybe softens the blow a little bit if you draft a rookie

wide receiver and he gets off to a slow start. Well, you've got an extra week where maybe he's performing like a stud later in the year. So I think that might make me a little bit more bullish on them going into the year. Well, Dave said, too, the depth. If you take one in the sixth or seventh round, the

wide receiver that if you pass over and take a rookie, the wide receiver sitting if you pass over and take a rookie, the wide receiver sitting there that's the veteran, you're probably still going to find that same type and level of veteran two rounds later because how deep the position is. Okay, by the way,

since everybody's just dying to know, 2018, Travis Kelsey, seven games without Sammy Watkins on pace for 1,360 yards, 119 catches, 162 targets. Last year, five games without Watkins, not including Week 17 when Holmes didn't play, on pace for nearly 1,600 yards,

141 targets, 13 touchdowns. So he and Tyreek Hill, huge bumps without Watkins. Got Mark Andrews. Yeah. All right, let's see. What's next here? Backup quarterback strategy. Backup quarterback strategy.

Dave, why don't you kick it off? Do you have a backup quarterback strategy? I want this many quarterbacks. If I draft a top whatever, I don't want a backup quarterback. What do you got? Question, because every year, the guy...

Here we go again. He's not allowed to talk about quarterbacks anymore. Why, what happened? I'm out again? That's what it is. You're the glitchy quarterback guy. I'm the glitchy quarterback. Let's talk about kickers instead. Try it again, Dave. That's when Jake becomes the glitchy quarterback.

All right, so last year, Aaron Rodgers was the. Is it going out again? Dave, how many quarterbacks do you want on your roster? Sign language. Usually one. Okay. Jamie, how many quarterbacks do you want? I had a good point, too.

This sucks. I try again. Last time. Last time. I'm not even going to bother because it's definitely going to go out. No, it's perfect now. Just text us and we'll read it for you. I think, you know, like I told you on FFT and 5, Adam,

if we have deep rosters, it's not a bad idea. If you have a league with deeper rosters, it's not a bad idea to carry multiple quarterbacks. Not necessarily just because you want to have a backup to play that clearly helps if the matchup's right, but you know, it could be trade bait or, you know, as we have seen, you know, sometimes guys get hot at the right time and you can, you know, sort of, uh, change if you're, if your guy or, you know, swap it out, if your guy is not

putting up good numbers, but you know, the, the type of number two quarterbacks that I'm going to draft, if I do, if I'm so inclined to do so, it's going to be one of the, whoever the saints guy is, you know, because I think that has a high, that, that player is going to have a high ceiling. It's going to be, you know, if Tua does get Jalen Smith, uh, Jamar, excuse me, Jamar Chase or, um, uh, or Kyle Pitts, you know, and, and hopefully he, you know, benefits from just an additional, uh, target that, that could play at that level, you know, uh, Trevor Lawrence, you know, depending on what the draft unfolds, the fantasy draft unfolds for him.

You know, those type of guys. Especially if I take, you know, Jalen Smith or somebody, or Jalen Hurts. Why am I Jalen Smith? If I take a Jalen Hurts or... Jamie, your internet's cutting out. Who's someone I'm proving and has a chance to, you know, uh, maybe fail. Okay.

Uh, Jake, what do you got fantasy philosophy on quarterbacks backups? Yeah. I think that the thing with the fancy community is easy to be like, oh, don't even draft a second quarterback. You can find them all the time, but you look at your most average leagues and that's not talking down to me. I'm just talking about that's the majority average leagues, of leagues out there a lot at least half the league is drafting a second quarterback so to say that i'm more on the jamie side is ideally sure i would like to get

mahomes or dac or and just say i'm good i don't need to worry about a second quarterback because i don't want to have the decision if the guy breaks out but i think there's just more value in most leagues where a potential trade ship or that breakout or maybe something goes wrong with your lead guy in the breakouts, the better option. But that's the key is that I'm always going to draft a breakout. I'm not drafting Kirk Cousins as my second quarterback. I'm drafting one of the rookies potentially, you know, nobody expected Herbert to do what he did. I'm bound, you know, banking on, you know what, maybe this is the year Baker finally

clicks for the entire season. Maybe Daniel Jones bounces back in the excitement for Daniel Jones from last year, who has been drafted as a fringe QB one, by the way. Maybe he does it this year. So those are the ones I don't want the, you know, the average quarterback getting 16 points. You know, it's also like to Jake's point, you know, you have to know your league. If everybody in your league is taking two quarterbacks, you could either follow suit and take the breakout guy and just sit on him. And hopefully that becomes, you know, the league winning type of quarterback for you, or you just avoid it and don't take the Kirk Cousins

or, you know, like Adam's going to take a lot of Jared Goff, obviously. No. You don't have to necessarily go that route. No, no. Those guys will be available to you. You know, you know, like Adam's going to take a lot of Jared Goff, obviously. No. You don't have to necessarily go that route. No, no. Those guys will be available to you. You know, you want to take somebody who, just keep the phrase in mind, difference maker.

Who's a difference maker? Who could be somebody that eventually becomes Justin Herbert or that type of quarterback down the road, and that's the type of player that you sit on, and hopefully he becomes that middle to the end of the year. I just get kind of annoyed when people give me hard, people, my colleagues, give me a hard time for taking,

sometimes I'll take three quarterbacks instead of some, some nothing wide receiver that has almost no chance. Like, well, why didn't you take this guy? Because he's not, he has no chance. You look at the quarterback as more of a blue chip prospect.

Yeah, right. That's how you have to look at your second QB. Well, yeah, second. And if I have enough spots... But then you get to buy weeks or injuries, and you're dropping that guy.

Probably dropping him, but you're probably dropping whoever you're taking then anyway. You're probably dropping him. So, yeah, I went and I looked at... This is kind of interesting. I was disappointed in the outcome of this research

because I wanted quarterbacks to win, and they didn't. But I looked at, in the past three seasons, players picked in rounds 10 or later, according to Fantasy Football Calculator, PPR ADP, round 10 or later, how many quarterbacks or tight ends finished top six?

And I just, I mean, look, this is totally arbitrary. I made my own numbers. But how many running backs, wide receivers? Hey, is there stats? Yeah, finished top 18. So a top 18 running back or wide receiver, a top six quarterback or tight end, which position do you think had the most picks in rounds 10 or later that

finished in the top six at quarterback or tight end or top 18 at running back or wide receiver? He told us quarterbacks. It wasn't quarterback running back, running back, running back. Dave, what do you think? I didn't pay. It wasn't quarterback. Running back, running back, running back. Dave, what do you think? I didn't pay attention

to a word you just said, so I'm sorry. I can't, I can't put in a guess here. I'll say wide receiver. Just you're wrong. All right.

In the last three seasons, players drafted around 10 or later that finished top six at quarterback or tight end or top 18 and running back a wide receiver.

There were five quarterbacks. There were seven wide receiver. There were five quarterbacks. There were seven running backs. There were five wide receivers and there were nine tight ends, three per year. So that's pretty crazy. Uh, Kittle,

Ebron, Cook and Hooper in 2018, Waller and Andrews in 2019, Tonyan, Logan Thomas and Hawkinson in 2020. They all finished top six. That's wild. I was a little annoyed because at quarterback,

you think, oh, how about Lamar Jackson in 2019? Jameis Winston, 2019. They were actually round nine picks, so they didn't quite make the cut. And Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers were round eight and nine picks, so they didn't make the cut in 2020, but in our leagues, you know, Aaron Rodgers was definitely around 10 or later, but yeah, I thought that was interesting. Quarterbacks five, running back seven,

wide receivers, five tight ends, nine, but. How did those guys do with Sammy Watkins? Here's what I'll say for the, for the wide receivers and the running backs, you don't get, even the ones that made that cut of top 18, you don't get this kind of impact that you get from the quarterbacks and the tight ends. You get guys like JD McKissick and Mike Davis, and James Robinson is probably the best example.

Naheem Hines made this list. James Conner, great example. Phillip Lindsey. Nick Chubb, you know, once they got rid of Carlos Hyde in 2018. But the quarterbacks could be just total league winners that late in the draft. So I'm probably going to take more backup quarterbacks than anyone, but it depends on roster spots.

Okay, we have one more question here, and I'm going to give you all 10 seconds to answer it, and then we'll move on. When is it acceptable to draft a DST? Let's start with our guest, Jake. DST. Final round. Just look for the best week one matchup

and move on from there. Okay, Dave? Dave? Make an exception for the second to last pick. That's fine. That's all we got, what we needed. Jamie? The last round or the second to last round,

depending on if you have kickers. Okay, you guys are crazy. Just crazy. Okay. Phrases that people screw up. Jamie, did you think of any? I looked it up as I was walking upstairs before the show. You looked up by my Twitter feed? No, I looked up phrases that people screw up.

Okay. What'd you find? I found people say I could care less. Yes. I couldn't care less. Big one. Yep. For all intensive purposes. Yep. It's for all intents and purposes. Could have, should have. Could have, should have. Not could have, should have. Okay. By purpose, on accident.

It's on purpose, by accident. Who says by purpose? I don't know. And a favorite of Heath Cummings, nipped it in the butt. He says that? Nipped in the bud. Also on Twitter, irregardless. People say irregardless. Just say regardless. Can we talk about the fact that the English or whatever, whoever makes the dictionary got so tired of it that just they threw it in the dictionary?

Irregardless? Yes. Yeah, yeah. They just are like, fine. By the way, I'm so mad Jamie said that one. Until, I'll admit it, until about three or four years ago, I thought it was intensive. I got that one wrong. I didn't know it was intense and purposeless.

Yeah. Yeah, there's a lot. Because everybody says it. Oh, I didn't know that it's worse comes to worst, right? If worse comes to worst. I think I used to say worst comes to worst. Worst comes to worst. It's worse comes to worst.

Yes. Yeah. And somebody, Ryan Dugan said, there's a phrase people say, Adam Azer is awesome. And he thinks that is wrong. Definitely wrong. Yeah. And chomping at the bit bit it is actually champing at the bit but that's another one whereas people people said it yeah pronounce it the same way it's just spelled

different no it's champing horse is champ that's a it's a horse racing term uh but people it's been said so wrong for so long like irregardless that it's just... Well, that's the other thing coming. It's actually, it's, you have another think coming. Really? Yes, that's another thing coming. Yeah. Yeah, see? You're this many days old.

Yeah. There's, like, a few that are, like, more spelling than they are. Like, this one, for example, that I found, sleight of hand. It's, like, S-L-E. S-L-E-I-G-H-E. Yeah, yeah. That's just dumb. I refuse to accept that one.

And this one is probably we all butcher. One in the same is really one and the same. One and the same? Oh, yeah, I guess that makes sense. Can we talk about the sports world and the fact that complimentary and complimentary are different when you're talking about a complimentary back?

Yeah. Right, right. Yeah. Right. Right. Yeah, exactly. Uh, good stuff. Dave had some good suggestions too,

but he's just cutting out the whole time. So, uh, we're going to take a break here on fantasy football today. We've got some news and notes and your emails. When we come back, whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference.

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So Pittsburgh is leaning toward drafting a running back in the first round. We saw that report come out over the weekend. Jake, if they draft, you can pick Harris, Etienne, whoever you want. Give me a round where you take them in fantasy. I'll take them on the turn for a second. Can you tell me Harris? It's funny. I was just talking about this with a buddy last night at a birthday party.

I said I could see them taking Harris, and if Harris is there, I would put him, and I went down my rankings and ran through my running backs, and I stopped at 10. He'd be RB10 if it's Najee Harris on the Steelers. He's that good. ETN, probably a little bit behind that just because I think they spell him a little bit more given his ability, but I still think he's great. Um, but both of those running backs would be fringe RB ones for ETN Harris locked into the RB one conversation. So you tell me at the turn, uh, just put it in the situation of look where James Robinson, if we knew what he was

going to do and he did last year, he would have been taken at the turnaround one. Offensive line makes me nervous there. And that's understandable. It's not the worst, worst though. No, but it's bottom half. That's not a quarterback. You put that. We got enough there.

Did you? Yeah, we did. It was bottom half. We got enough there. Did you? Yeah, we did. It was bottom half. Bottom quarter. Okay. Thank you for filling in the blank there. Our William Hill odds for the third pick. All right, we don't know who the third pick's going to be.

We're pretty sure we know who the first two picks are going to be. San Francisco on the clock. William Hill odds are Justin Fields minus 140. Mack Jones plus 130, Trey Lance was plus 400. Now he's up to plus 200. Jamie, which bet would you make? Fields minus 140,

Mac Jones plus 130, Trey Lance plus 200. Well, today's Trey Lance day, so it's going to be, you know, the rumors are going to be it's all about Trey Lance, who's apparently getting his workout run by the 49ers. So I would, right now, put my money on Trey Lance,

but I think it's going to be Justin Fields. All right. Colts wide receiver Zach Paschal signed his second-round tender. The Falcons signed Cordaro Patterson and waived Ido Smith. Dave, you there? They deemed him a running back. Does this matter to you? Is this fantasy relevant?

Not yet. If they go through the whole draft deemed him a running back. Does this matter to you? Is this fantasy relevant? Not yet. If they go through the whole draft without adding another running back, then maybe. But I'd be stunned if they did that. That's where I want a running back to go. That's where I want Najah Harris to go. Atlanta.

Seattle signed defensive end Alden Smith. Chicago signed wide receiver Marquise Goodwin to a one-year deal. The Cardinals signed linebacker Dennis Gardeck, who is a really good story for them and had a really nice year. Cleveland released Sheldon Richardson. I've been raving about their defense.

Well, they have now lost both of their starting defensive tackles from 2020, Larry Ogunjobi and Sheldon Richardson. They saved a lot of money in doing it, but it's not a good thing. And Jake, Melvin Gordon said he is sick of being overlooked. And what kind of workload are you expecting for Melvin Gordon as of right now before the NFL draft? What are you thinking about Melvin Gordon? I'd say pretty similar to what we saw last year with even with Philip Lindsay being hurt or when

he was out there, Melvin Gordon was pretty steady. But I think at the point of what we know about Melvin Gordon is part of the reason he's overlooked is because he's above average. He's not amazing. And if you look at the numbers, if you watch him play, he should be better between the tackles. He's really good. He's just not amazing. So I would put him in the same conversation, same workload as we saw last year and whatever that stands out to be. it's an RB2. It's a solid RB2, but it's kind of an uninspiring RB2, honestly. Okay. We've got to read some emails. FantasyFootball at CBSi.com.

By the way, that's the letter I, not E-Y-E. FantasyFootball at CBSi.com. Phrase that people get wrong all the time. All right. 12-team, three-wide receiver, non-superflex League, full PPR. Redraft League voted last year to allow us to keep two players,

but it will cost us the amount we paid for them at our salary draft, and we can only opt to keep each player for a maximum of two seasons. $100 salary, and who should I keep? Which two should I keep Hayden Hurst for 7 I say no

George Kittle for 14 it's PPR guys Camara for 28 AJ Brown for 10 and Keenan Allen for 4 and I'm going to go ahead and forward these emails to you Jake because I know it's a lot to not have it in front of you.

So give me a moment. No, I got it. I got my two answers. All right, go ahead. Kittle, 14. Kamara, 28. A.J. Brown, a 10. Keenan Allen for four.

What are your two? I was originally going to have Kittle in there, but when you said A.J. Brown in a $200 league would still be a super discount at 20, and then you throw in Keenan Allen at four. Both of them, top 10 wide receivers volume is back for keenan allen again with herbert and i'm to go back to aj brown i i actually think aj brown is going to hit the top five this year now that cory davis is gone and john and i know

they'll probably add somebody still through the draft but that volume are you talking about a can i get 130 targets for aj brown top five Brown? Top five. All right. Adam Brown. You can get more best receivers for the same price as Kittle. Right. It's a no-brainer. Yeah. Okay. Good.

Adam from an Olympic city north of the border, Dave. An Olympic city. Where did they have the Olympics? Is it Toronto? No. Montreal is where they had it. Out west. No, Vancouver.

Okay. Vancouver, Vancouver. Okay. Vancouver, right? I wouldn't have gotten that either. I don't know my Canadian trivia. I'm pretty sure. I don't know. I look like trivia. Look it up. Half PPR. It was 2010. Yeah. Vancouver, right? That was like 10 years ago.

It was like 11 years ago. Okay. Half PPR. One quarterback. Dynasty League. I have no picks in our rookie free agent draft until the fourth round, and I don't have my first next year either. I sold out to win it all last year, and I finished third. I feel like I have a strong team, but I also feel like last year was my best chance at a championship

as Adams, Hill, and James Robinson are due to regress. Should I flip Devontae Adams or someone else for the one Oh one and other firsts or assets or stay the course? Uh, Jamie, what do you think Devante Adams? Would you give him up for one Oh one and some other assets or would you keep them?

I mean, it's hard not knowing what the rest of his roster is, you know, to determine fully how good his team is but you know if you're starting with your top three players being Adams Hill and Robinson that's a pretty good place to start well hold on I'll tell you he's got Wilson he's got Taylor Swift James Robinson yeah Damian Harris he's got he's got Taylor and Swift he's got AJ Brown and Tyreek Hill yeah he's got a good team.

Yeah, I'm probably not. I'd probably try and run it back if you can, you know, or maybe make a smaller move to try and, you know, see what you can get into the second round if you can. But, I mean, you have A.J. Brown, Tyreek Hill, and Devontae Adams, and then those three young running backs. It's like, why would you try and, you know, break that up? You still have a team that's going to win now, has a chance to win now,

and a chance to win in the next two or three years as well. I would see what the other considerations are with 101, though. If someone's going to overpay for Adams and it just seems like it's an obvious overpay, then your team will get even younger and you can absorb that loss of Devonta Adams for a year. I don't think you have to. It's not a need trade.

Agreed. It's a luxury trade. The other assets have to be equitable to a first as well. Like, one first is not enough for Adams. Vancouver in 2010, Calgary in 1988, Montreal in 1976. And the Montreal logo looks like a middle finger. Does it? Yeah.

He probably met the 1976 games. That is totally my bad. I forgot about that logo. I know what you're talking about. I've got to Google image this. This is from Kevin in a city in Connecticut. Dave. Stanford.

Yeah. Hey, George, Thomas, Teddy, and Abe. I think that was 85 Bears. 10-team Dynasty Superflex League. Half PPR. I am being offered Daniel Jones and Miles Gaskin. This is

Superflex League. Daniel Jones and Miles Gaskin for Darnold Schwarzenegger and Miles Sanders. Would you guys rather have Daniel Jones and Gaskin or Sam Darnold and Miles Sanders? Darnold and Sanders. Just for Sanders. Yeah.

I mean, for all intents and purposes, I think we're looking at the... This is probably Daniel Jones for Darnold and Sanders. That's really what I call it because I think everybody's expecting that even if Gaskin's the lead from day one, I'm expecting them to draft somebody

and he won't be the lead by the middle of the season. It's strange, though, because Gaskin was pretty good for them. He was. I'm a Gaskin guy. I just feel like he was the, all right, we got more than we expected. He's still not our answer kind of feel. Yeah, but this running back class, how many running backs are really that good? I don't think it's a very deep class.

So if they don't take a running back in the first or second round, are they going to take somebody who's actually going to be able to replace Myles Gaskin? I think so. I think you look at both UNC kids. I think both of them were better than Gaskin. I think you can make a case for Herbert from Virginia Tech. And I think you could even say Sermon from Ohio State. I think all four of them, if they got, they're probably going to be day two, maybe even day three running backs in the third round. But any of those, again,

probably don't step in as the lead from day one, but you tell me talent comparison wise, I would take all four of those. Okay. From Ed, a lot depends on the NFL draft, but in a non-PPR league with three keepers, which two of the three would you keep? Non-PPR. Miles Sanders,

Clyde Edwards-Ziller, Austin Eckler. Sanders, Edwards-Ziller, Eckler. Pick two. Eckler and Sanders. I agree. Even a non-PPR, I agree. I mean, that's just the first two I would take in a non-PPR.

From Bobby, 10-team PPR keeper league. I can keep Dalvin cook for one more year in the third round. I also get to choose first where I want to pick in the draft. Should I go one and take McCaffrey or Camara, or should I pick 10? It's 10 team PPR league and still get a good running back and a great wide receiver, uh,

or two wide receivers. So if you knew you were getting Dalvin cook in the third round, would you take the first pick of the 10th pick? It's a 10 wide receiver. Or two wide receivers. So if you knew you were getting Dalvin Cook in the third round, would you take the first pick or the 10th pick? It's a 10-team league, so what you get in round two and round three is still going to be amazing. So take one overall.

Yeah, take one overall. Especially to Jamie, yeah, what's going to be great, but also, even though they're great, think about the drop-off at the end of the second round for running back versus wide receiver. It's a lot bigger drop-off to Christian McCaffrey, to whoever's there, then you will see a wide receiver all right jake so we're done with the show what you want to uh we'll talk about candy or kickers or anything like that

jake jake says he doesn't favor peanut butter candy but three of his top five candies i believe had peanut butter in them so i don't know okay it's out of the top five well one of them technically is a redundancy because i had to separate the difference between Reese's peanut butter cups, the holiday edition and recent peanut butter cups, the actual peanut butter cups, because the holiday additions are the good ones. All of them, especially the eggs. No, I'll tell nerds, gummy clusters. This has been my campaign.

They should send me free ones because I've been telling everybody about them. And actually, who was it? I think it was me and a times even tried them and tweeted about them and how amazing they were. Somebody did. Nerds Gummy Clusters. There's your candy list thing you need to try. Okay. I'm very interested in this. Nerds Gummy Clusters. They were actually super

hard to find for a while because they're flying off the shelves, man. And where did you have Take 5 on your list? I think it was somewhere around the teens. 14, 15. Are you looking at the list? No, I'm not.

But Take 5 basically combined every good candy into one awesome thing. It's basically the candy bar to end all candies. You got to be in the mood for a Take 5. I love them. I think they're underrated, but you got to be in the mood for it. Sometimes you're just not in the mood for it. Like, sometimes you're just

not in the mood for pretzel and nougat and peanuts and caramel. Like, sometimes you just want simple. Nerds Gummy Clusters, you can get them for $2.50 on Walmart

or it looks like $30 on Amazon. $32. I see this because they're sold out on Amazon. Dear God. Jake, thanks for coming on, man.

Tell us how we can find you and what you're up to these days. Yeah, over at The Athletic, my top 85 skill position players for the NFL draft pre-draft is up there, and I'll be covering them again and see what we talked about on the show, the landing spots and how that affected afterwards. At all and kid, you said it. That's the easiest way. I tweet too much, and people probably end up muting me anyway.

Well, that's Jake Seeley, at AllInKid. Do not mute him. Just follow him. Dave Richard, Jamie Isenberg, Ben Schrager. Thanks, everybody, for listening. We'll come back tomorrow with another edition of Fantasy Football Today. See you.