Fantasy Football Today - Fantasy Resolutions, Tough Calls for Week 18 and 2025 (01/01 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: January 1, 2025

Happy New Year! We hope 2024 was great for you and we're excited to usher in a new year of Fantasy Football. We've got some Fantasy resolutions (4:40) including not counting out older running backs an...d drafting players you might not like that much! ... News and notes (17:40) and tough calls for Week 18 (21:30). Can you trust Kyler Murray, Najee Harris, Zay Flowers, Michael PIttman or Tyreek Hill this week? ... We've got tough calls for 2025 (37:40)! Sam Darnold, JK Dobbins, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Jonnu Smith ... Email us at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts Please VOTE for Fantasy Football Today in the Sports Podcast Awards in the "Best Fantasy Betting and Gaming Podcast" category: https://bit.ly/3Zxw3uS Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Shop our store: shop.cbssports.com/fantasy  SUBSCRIBE to FFT Express on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-express/id1528634304 Follow FFT Express on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6qyGWfETSBFaciPrtvoWCC?si=6529cbee20634da8 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 FOLLOW FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 SUBSCRIBE to FFT DFS on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dfs/id1579415837 FOLLOW FFT DFS on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5zU7pBvGK3KPhfb69Q1hNr?si=1c5030a3b1a64be2 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." Visit the betting arena on CBSSports.com for all the latest sportsbook reviews and sportsbook promos. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 What's in this McDonald's bag? The McValue Meal. For $5.79 plus tax, you can get your choice of junior chicken, McDouble, or chicken snack wrap, plus small fries and a small fountain drink. So pick up a McValue Meal today at participating McDonald's restaurants in Canada. Prices exclude delivery. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. What a play! Can you believe this? No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. This is gonna go the distance. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.
Starting point is 00:00:36 Hey, happy new year everybody. It is Wednesday, January 1st. How many days Heath of writing the date before you feel like you're gonna write 2025 instead of 2024? I don't write that many checks anymore, for example, but if I did write one in the next like three weeks, I would screw up the date.
Starting point is 00:00:53 I'm fairly confident. Yeah, I write a couple of checks a month and I think I'm gonna get that one right, but that's not what we're going to start with today. We're going to start with some congratulations for Adamazer. Like maybe the greatest, definitely the best fantasy season. You're the FFT podcast manager of the year. You won the magazine league, the podcast league, made the finals of the super flex league. You were the semi finals, FFT, right? Yeah. I mean, like just in the leagues that you played with me and Jamie and Dave, you just,
Starting point is 00:01:33 you know, coach circles around us. And you know why? For the most part, I mean, not in the podcast league, but well, no, the podcast, the guy had T Higgins. The other one was Baker Mayfield. I just, that's what I've been reflecting on, By the way, welcome to Fantasy Football Today, presented by Bet MGM, the sports book born in Vegas. Thank you to Bet MGM for sponsoring us, by the way. Appreciate that in 2024 and looking forward to continuing that in 2025. But I've been reflecting on that.
Starting point is 00:01:57 You missed, I wrote a song about my victory over you yesterday, Heath. I would encourage you to go listen to it. Yeah, I definitely won't. This is zero percent chance that's going to happen. I said, this is the last time I've ever going to think about it. I just was reflecting on how one or two players
Starting point is 00:02:12 can have such an impact on your season and on a weekly basis. And I remember a few years ago, Tom Brady's second year with Tampa Bay, I drafted a lot of Tom Brady and he went out and just had a monster year. And this year I don't think I drafted Baker Mayfield but I picked him up everywhere or in many leagues and he was the primary reason I'd say he and T. Higgins why I had a good year. But I already bragged yesterday so I'm sorry you're doing that again but we're going to do
Starting point is 00:02:40 some New Year's resolutions, some fantasy New Year's resolutions, what we can do better in 2025. And see, I hope it's at 2024. I was screwed that up. But Jamie's here. Good morning, Jamie. Good morning. Yeah, he's still listening to the song. No chance. Zero percent. Well, part of it is, is that Dave was trying to help, but Dave ruined it with his background accordion. Don't tell him I He did. He did kind of ruin it. Yeah. Good. Good.
Starting point is 00:03:07 I, uh, speaking of background music, it was like, I don't know Adam, if what the new year's Eve is like where you live, but in my part and Jamie's part of town, if you go outside at like 11 30 for like the next hour, it's the 4th of July. Like it's just fireworks and explosions everywhere in Florida on New Year's Eve. And we had somebody in our neighborhood that I think had a kazoo. They just kept over and over and over.
Starting point is 00:03:41 So I've got fireworks and kazoo sounds still in my head from last night. Did you guys? No kazoo, but yes. You made it to midnight, you guys? Oh yeah. What do you mean? My wife had to wake me up.
Starting point is 00:03:54 Yeah. And then I was up till three. Jamie's always up till midnight. Actually, I fell asleep after we got home, which was like almost one, but I was done. Oh, you went out. All right, good for you. All right, anyway, today we're gonna talk about tough calls,
Starting point is 00:04:09 a few of them for week 18 and a few of them for 2025, but also some New Year's resolutions. This was a surprise segment. I just thought of it like right before the show, we should do New Year's resolutions. So I have one. If you guys have one, you can go first. Otherwise I will help buy you time.
Starting point is 00:04:27 Yo. Okay. I will diversify my portfolio. This is something really for people who are playing a lot of leagues, but there's just, Derek Henry, I don't really regret. Like I just, I did not see this coming. I thought he was going to be a bust.
Starting point is 00:04:41 And I, you know, I missed on that one, but I didn't have any Derek Henry, but Bark, but I didn't have any Derrick Henry. But Barkley, I didn't have any Saquon Barkley. And I just feel like in 11 redraft leagues plus one best ball, I probably should have had Saquon Barkley in a league. So even if you're out on a player, especially if everyone else is in on that player,
Starting point is 00:05:00 you should probably draft him in one or two leagues, depending on how many leagues you have. But diversify your portfolio, give yourself, you know, maybe it was like Tank Del. Again, not even a great example, but someone that I felt like has a wide range of outcomes. Don't have that guy on none of your teams. If you play in, I'd say five or more leagues or something like that, which a lot of our listeners do. So diversify your portfolio, even if it means drafting someone that you weren't planning on drafting, because you know what? You're going to be wrong a lot of our listeners do. So diversify your portfolio, even if it means drafting someone that you weren't planning on drafting, because you know what?
Starting point is 00:05:26 You're gonna be wrong a lot. We're all wrong a lot. So diversify. That's my New Year's resolution. As someone who plays in 20 plus leagues, I make a point of that all the time. Just purposely. So it'll come down to,
Starting point is 00:05:41 and it cost me a few times. So there was one, I'll give you two examples. Not necessarily because I didn't like the person, player. In our dynasty, in the Baker-Burger dynasty, I had drafted a lot of Tyrone Tracy, a lot of Tyrone Tracy, and very excited about Tyrone Tracy, happy to have him in the two dynasty leagues where I drafted him. In our league, I was torn between Tracy and Kamani Vidal. I was like, I don't have any dynasty
Starting point is 00:06:11 shares of Kamani Vidal. I regret that one, but that was an example of what if Vidal is the next guy for the Chargers. There was probably a lot of discussion who's the better dynasty option. Heath, you can correct me if I'm wrong. At that point, two day three running backs and paths to being the starters there. Tracy, the question was could he handle the running downs work and that's one I regret. But there was another example I was going to give you, I forgot already. Oh, Devonte Adams. That was another one where I went out of my Oh, Devonta Adams, you know, that was another one
Starting point is 00:06:46 where I went out of my way between Devonta Adams and Jalen Waddle who drafts a lot of Jalen Waddle mistake. But no, I'm gonna take Devonta Adams here just because what if he does have a good year with the Raiders? What if I am wrong about a 31 year old wide receiver? So that's another one that purposely. I should have drafted, I drafted too much Zach Moss and no Chase Brown. So that's another one that purposely. I should have drafted, I drafted too much Zach Moss and no Chase Brown.
Starting point is 00:07:09 That's one right there. I didn't even think about that one. That's probably the one I regret. I guess it was such a toss up and their ADPs were almost identical. Why didn't I just take a shot in one of those leagues on Chase Brown? All right, Heath, you got one?
Starting point is 00:07:22 I'm not sure that I do. I think this is supposed to be based on like how you play. Like my real fantasy related new year's resolution is just to do like even more FFT dynasty podcasts, like just to do more of that. But, um, I, as far as like playing, um, there's one league that I've got to leave. And I've been meaning to leave it for like two or three years and every year at this time, I chicken out and don't leave. So I'm going to actually leave the league.
Starting point is 00:07:51 Which is not the leftovers league that you share a team with me. Is it? No, no, it's not. Is it one of ours? No. Okay. Uh, no, it'll, it'll go back to, uh, I think you asked us a couple years ago, what, what have we learned?
Starting point is 00:08:06 And I said, I'm not going to chase Trey Lance again. And I chased Anthony Richardson again. So I'm not going to chase that quarterback again. But isn't, I'm not going to highly tout that quarterback again. Yeah, I just thought his ADP was got too high. Because remember, I don't know if we all said it, but I was like, well, don't take Anthony Richardson to just wait a few rounds and take Jayden Daniels or the same profile. So I don't think actually his ADP got too high. No, we admit we may have been drafting him too high, like in our leagues, probably me.
Starting point is 00:08:40 Um, but it was, uh, cause I went to look when I was doing the all bus team and he's not at a point where, I don't know who I put as the bus, but he wasn't at a point where it was like, oh, that's like obscene. Well, my homes was probably the bus wasn't it? No, Straub was the top was a tough high quarter, so. You could start, at least you could start Anthony Richardson down the stretch. I just think that when we get a player changing teams, a player that we don't think is good,
Starting point is 00:09:15 this is not related to Anthony Richardson, but this is like the big NFL lesson that I think we're learning over the past few years. Guys can revive their careers in better situations and in doing it in such surprising ways. Heath, we're going to talk about Sam Darnold later as you talked about him as a player that's tough to rank for 2025.
Starting point is 00:09:32 You brought him up and we're going to write a text message. Baker Mayfield, Derek Henry, and Saquon Barkley just having these bounce back seasons. We just didn't expect it to this degree. And it's actually making me wonder if we should ever talk about how good a player is like ever again, because there's so much that goes into it. It's not just about the player. It's obviously about the situation and the coach. We talked about a little yesterday just while we're on the topic. So Heath, I know you were very anti running backs, changing teams. And I don't know if it was just an age thing plus the changing teams or just the changing teams. So I don't know if it was just an age thing plus the changing
Starting point is 00:10:05 teams or just the changing teams. So like Josh Jacobs, for example, I don't think you were out on Jacobs, but you're definitely concerned about Barkley and Henry with the success that those guys had. I think I said on the show that it was everybody but Deandre Swift that changed teams did well of the high profile guys. How do you feel about what may be the next crop of free agents? I think we have to be really careful because it's, it's, it's, there's two things going on one, we've got older running backs that are exceeding expectations to we've got the running backs that change teams that exceeded
Starting point is 00:10:37 expectations and the things that they have in common is like, we've just got some really elite older running backs. I'm not sure I want to apply those lessons to the next crop of older running backs. So I'm, I'm probably, I probably won't be as anti running backs changing team or as anti 28 year old running backs. But I'm not going to make a big shift just because I think that the lesson is don't doubt Derek Henry and Saquon Barkley more than it is.
Starting point is 00:11:02 Don't doubt running backs. Well, it's also, I think they went to pretty elite situations, you know, and that was the selling point. It was like, you know, you look at it, Jacobs and Mixon were almost, I don't want to say lateral moves for Jacobs, but you know, in terms of lateral moves from they're not necessarily downgrading. None of these guys really downgraded their situations, all of them almost upgraded their situations. It's true. And that's I think part of it. Like you're taking elite players still, still productive
Starting point is 00:11:30 at age going to Henry upgrade, Barkley upgrade. Jacobs, I guess you'd say upgrade just because environment. Mixon, not downgrade. Who am I missing? Swift was really the only miss, right? Yeah, Swift. Yeah, Swift was was, I guess, a downgrade. I mean, Dobbins wasn't really a high profile one, but. Yeah, you know, we're that's what I was trying to think. I guess so. Aaron Jones was a low end or B2 per game.
Starting point is 00:12:04 But that's kind of where he finished in Green Bay, you know, so, and his was like a lateral move too. Pretty much. Let's see. All right. All right. Those are some fantasy resolvations. I think it's gonna be interesting.
Starting point is 00:12:15 Like who, like Najee Harris is one that comes to mind and somebody's gonna switch teams and try to think who else is off to look it up. But the guys that we're gonna see on the move. Yeah. the guys that we're gonna see on the move. Yeah, that was also just an unusually loaded free agent running back class. It was incredible. Okay, anywho, how about real resolutions?
Starting point is 00:12:38 Oh, actually wait, let me read some fantasy ones from Twitter I sent out to tweet them, I as well read them. Cat Dad says, my resolution is to quit automatically assuming that a wide receivers value will drop when their quarterback gets injured. Signed someone who traded away Brian Thomas Jr. That's a really tough one. Sometimes it makes a huge difference
Starting point is 00:12:58 like the dolphin situation. I know Tyreek had a good game last week, but typically horrible. And sometimes it doesn't.'s that's a toss-up Well, I'm sure Heath will enjoy this it may speak to how good or bad Trevor Lawrence's Hmm. Yeah, maybe and Let's see
Starting point is 00:13:18 Ed says my fantasy New Year's resolution is to stop believing that tight end will be a deep position next year. I Think it's a great one rinse wash repeat every year. Yeah. This is the year for tight ends. All right, let's take a little break here. Before we do that though, it's still, there's still plenty of time to sign up on Bet MGM and you'll be supporting the show. You'll be supporting one of our sponsors and you're going to get an amazing offer. If you sign up with the promo code or the bonus code fantasy, you're going to get up to a if you sign up with the promo code or the bonus code fantasy You're gonna get up to a $1,500 first bet offer on your first wager with bet MGM. Just download the bet MGM app Sign up and use the bonus code fantasy
Starting point is 00:13:55 Deposit at least ten dollars and place your first wager on any game and you'll receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your your bet loses, just make sure you use the bonus code fantasy when you sign up. We'll be right back with News and Notes and Week 18 tough calls and 2025 tough calls after this. All right, you want the list of free agent running backs for next year? Oh, sure.
Starting point is 00:14:18 It's so gross. All right, here's this coordinate support track. Aaron Jones will be 30, or is 30. Najee, I'm just gonna give you the prominent ones. Javante Williams, Alexander Madison, and Amir Abdullah. Dobbins, Rico Dowdle. Oh, interesting. Jalen Warren. Ooh, that's interesting. Jalen Warren.
Starting point is 00:14:45 Ooh, that's interesting. And Jordan Mason and Khalil Herbert. That's also interesting. See what Herbert does this week. I would, wouldn't you just love to see Jalen Warren and Khalil Herbert just get a chance to be a number one running back? I would just love to see Jalen Warren stay
Starting point is 00:15:02 and nobody else. I just had a nightmare. Oh, a nausea leave you. I just had a nightmare of the Steelers drafting Ashton Gentry and then giving 150 carries to some plotter. So like Deontay Forman is a free agent. Like they signed Deontay Forman. And Ashton Gentry. Yep.
Starting point is 00:15:18 Yeah. Yeah. News and notes. Nick Sirianni has not made a decision about Saquon Barkley yet. Hopefully we'll find out more today and other starters. Here's Sirianni. Oh, don't you just, it would just wish it were like 15 yards.
Starting point is 00:15:34 It's a lot of yards. I wouldn't do it. I don't think it's worth it. I was looking at players close to a thousand yards. You know how, so the bills are gonna start Josh Allen to get his consecutive starts, which means probably a drive. James Cook is 19 yards away from a thousand.
Starting point is 00:15:56 There you go. That's an easier call. That's an easier call than Barkley. Right. And the Rams are likely gonna rest their starters against Seattle, so you could see Blake Corum. Like I've just been kind of using the, um, the lines and this
Starting point is 00:16:13 could end up being wrong. There could be a big swing in the lines later in the week, but I think you can kind of guess who's going to rest some people by what the current spreads are the chiefs are 10 and a half point underdogs at Denver. So I don't think you're going to see very many of them. The Texans are one point underdogs at Tennessee. So I'm not sure you're going to see too many of them. That's interesting because what the Mika Ryan said. Maybe he's going to maybe be half a game. I don't know. And the Bills are two and a half point favorites at the Patriots. So yeah, there won't be a long time for Josh Allen, probably.
Starting point is 00:16:49 Well, there's also thought of the Patriots sitting Drake Maine, some guys too, to, you know, understand the assignment and get the one spot the draft. Yeah. Yeah. Quarterback Dorian Thompson Robinson was limited. He may split this week with Bailey Zappi. They're at Baltimore on Saturday. Brock Purdy is likely out, and we don't know if it's gonna be Brandon Allen or Josh Dobbs this week at Arizona. A lot of running back news.
Starting point is 00:17:12 Trey Benson on IR for Arizona. So probably gonna be a Michael Carter game. Chase Brown missed practice. And Dallas cut Ezekiel Elliott. All right, so here we go. Let's put it to the test. If Ezekiel Elliott signs with a playoff contender, go into a new team, better situation, veteran running back, going to have a big, big playoff run?
Starting point is 00:17:31 No. I'm just kidding. Okay. Sorry, I said that too seriously. It was supposed to be dripping with sarcasm. Justice Hill missed practice. Who would even sign him as a playoff team? I don't know. And Jerome Ford mispractice and Pierre Strong is
Starting point is 00:17:47 in the concussion protocol. They're at Baltimore on Saturday. I think the Eagles just so they control the entire division when they win the Super Bowl. Do they have any commanders? I can find one. Who would it even be gonna sign Alfred Morris? Cedric Tillman's on IR David and Jjoku missed practice.
Starting point is 00:18:06 The Browns are limping into this meaningless game for them. Big game for Baltimore on Saturday. And Myles Garrett missed practice. Wouldn't be surprised if he sat. So let's go to some tough calls for week 18. I try to pick players in games that don't involve, are we sitting our players scenarios? It wasn't that easy, but let's just,
Starting point is 00:18:25 let's talk about Kyler Murray. And he has scored 18 to 22.4 fantasy points and six point per passing touchdown leagues in three of his last four games. He has rushed for 32 or more yards in three of his last five games. It hasn't not always been pretty. The 49ers are usually pretty good against quarterbacks,
Starting point is 00:18:44 but they were not against Jared golf. Is Kyler Murray someone that you guys are confident in starting this week? Unfortunately, no, but I think he look, he's a he's a number one quarterback in the rankings, mostly by default. He has not had a great season by any stretch. He was having a pretty solid game against the Rams. and then the two interceptions dropped him below the 20 point threshold again. But the 49ers defense is just a shell of itself right now. And I think just, you know, you
Starting point is 00:19:15 had your, okay, let's try and maybe play spoiler, win the last home game. Now you got to go on the road and week 18 meaningless game for a team that had Super Bowl aspiration. So hopefully Kyler finishes the season strong. If I have him in week road and week 18 meaningless game for a team that had super world aspirations. So hopefully Kyler finishes to see the strong. If I have him in week 18 and I've been starting him all along, I'm not going to, you know, go and start Josh Dobbs over him, for example. So I was about 10 quarterbacks. Yeah, I mean, I don't feel confident in anything or anyone in week 18. But he's a top 12
Starting point is 00:19:46 quarterback, I would be curious. Like if, if somebody out there is playing on week 18 as part of like their real championship game, I'd like to know why I get a lot of, I get a lot of, we do a two week championship and we include week 18. But if I could just be 100% honest with everybody, I don't really even wanna talk about, I mean, I just feel like I'm doing the listeners a disservice. Most people are probably listening to this going like,
Starting point is 00:20:17 why am I even listening to this segment? But I do feel like obviously there are people who play in week 18, so we have to talk about it, but I don't want people to tune out. So just stick around. We'll get into the 2025 stuff. There's also I mean, you know, we'll spin it for DFS because people still like to have some interest after winning their championship and maybe trying to win some more money and take
Starting point is 00:20:35 some of their, you know, investment and enhance it or people have been playing DFS all along. So is Kyler good DFS play for this week? And the answer is yes, because he's playing a, you know, beaten up defense that probably has a little motivation. And I'm sure he would like to finish the season strong to carry some momentum into next year. So he's a great DFS play because I think he said this last week,
Starting point is 00:20:54 you know, he has the ability to go for 20 plus on any given week and that's the type of player that is. Look at gamer Eric in our chat saying he's listening because it's like hanging with his friends. Thank you Appreciate it. It and I did you know the chat we've grown a nice relationship over the over the year. It's YouTube We've really you know had a much bigger audience and we appreciate that It's never too late to get on there youtube.com fantasy football today. There's somebody just commented. They're in a two-week championship. Oh Good he's up 70 points. So that's good fantasy football today. Somebody just commented they're in a two-week championship. Oh, good.
Starting point is 00:21:25 He's up 70 points. So that's good. I think it's even like if you're in if you're playing in week 18, just send me an email fantasyfootballatcbsi.com with any starter sit questions and that. And also if you could answer the why in the why I'd like to know why. So here's a guy. Here's a tough call because they might be sitting there guys, but you're not really going to know. I know you're not really gonna know.
Starting point is 00:21:45 I know you, I don't know. You don't know what Pittsburgh's gonna do because if Baltimore wins, which they will, Pittsburgh could elect to rest their players. But that's like the game's right after one right after the other. I have Najee Harris as a tough call. The last time he faced the Bengals, he had a huge game. 24.9 PPR fantasy points, 16 carries, 75 yards and a touchdown six catches for 54 yards. This is a great matchup. But yeah, Jalen Warren
Starting point is 00:22:13 seems to be almost even in carries with him recently. Is Najee Harris a starter for you guys? He's ranked as a starter. Again, it's a lot of by default. I think in the case of this matchup, it's a question you have to ask yourself is that because it sounds like Mike Tomlin is going to play the starters on offense. That doesn't necessarily mean he's gonna play the starters on defense. I think the the phrasing he used get the stench out of our mouth from the offensive performances lately because the last three weeks have been pretty terrible. So there's no better practice opponent than the Bengals defense.
Starting point is 00:22:48 And so do they go out and have the opportunity for a shootout, which is what we saw the last time. I mean, you know, it was the Bengals scored on them and that was what their defenseman guys playing. So, you know, the Bengals need the game. There is a chance for, you know, high scoring affairs. So I think Najee is the number two. I have Jaylen Warren ranked ahead of Najee. I don't know how you feel about it, Heath. Warren has played more snaps the last four games than Najee. Part of that has been game flow.
Starting point is 00:23:13 I think Najee is slowing down while Jaylen Warren is speeding up. So if you look at the two play, one looks like he's playing faster. And you wonder if, again, both guys walking in a free agency, do they start to maybe phase your j- favor Jalen Warren who might have a better future than Najee Harris on that team. So if I'm deciding between the two, I'm playing the, the better player right now, which is Jalen Warren. But I don't think that Najee is not necessarily going to, I don't think, I think Najee still has a chance to have a good game.
Starting point is 00:23:40 I think he has a chance to score. It's just a matter of this game gets back and forth and the Bengals playing with the lead, it's probably better for Jaylen Moore. Very good point from the chat. Like the Steelers have something to play for no matter what because it's the difference between playing the Texans in round one and playing the Ravens or the Bills. And so that's like, do you want to have a better chance of winning your first-round playoff game? So I definitely would rather start Warren. I struggle a lot with Najee. He's not ranked as a starter for me right now. He
Starting point is 00:24:10 has 14 receiving yards in his last four games combined. And that like part of that big game against Cincinnati, that was the last time he was really heavily involved in the passing game, six catches for 54 yards. I'll start Jalen Warren as a number two, nauseous aflux for me. And you know what, something I never mentioned, I didn't actually know this until after our Sunday night show. Cause when on Sunday night we were saying, oh, the Monday night game for the Lions at San Francisco is meaningless. It actually wasn't. It was probably meaningless. But by beating the 49ers, they now have the tiebreaker over Minnesota if those two teams tie this week. If they had lost to the 49ers and tied Minnesota in week 18, then the Vikings would have had the tiebreaker. So just you were talking about this game being
Starting point is 00:24:58 important for the Steelers for seeding. I actually didn't know that at the time. I didn't know that until Monday. The game actually was sort of important. They weren't really treating it that way. No one even considers ties, but they do have that tiebreaker now, just in case you're curious. All right, my next tough call is Zay Flowers against the Cleveland Browns.
Starting point is 00:25:15 This is the first game of the week, 4.30 PM Eastern. On Saturday, Zay Flowers coming off a game where Lamar Jackson threw 15 passes in a blowout win at Houston. And what would say the spread is in this game? 17, 17 point favorites at home against Cleveland. Double it and I'd still take the Ravens. And yes, they flowers like the good news is
Starting point is 00:25:38 he's had a target share of twenty nine point two percent or higher in three straight games. The bad news is he's only had one good game in that stretch because Mar Jackson hasn't been throwing that much. Starter sits a flowers. I'm starting him. I think he's a number two wide receiver with all the questions that we have. You got a team with an implied total of 29 and a half bad defense, big upside. Maybe Lamar makes his final MVP push. He's a top 20 guy. So I agree with a lot of that.
Starting point is 00:26:12 It's just probably where he's ranked. He's clearly been a number three receiver the entire season, you know, just based on the up and down and the disappointments that he's had, despite the fact that he's still the number one receiver for the Ravens. He's not scoring touchdowns and that's just hurt his overall production. And so, you know, it's probably splitting hairs from a projection standpoint, what Heath is projecting him for and what I would be projecting him for if I was projecting him. So he's like wide receiver 26, 27, 28 in that range. But I
Starting point is 00:26:41 think he's just, the way he's performed, he just hasn't been a consistent number two receiver. Unfortunately, he's just been more of a number three guy. And I think that's unfortunate because he has so much potential. So you could see his frustration sometimes with how the games go. He's clearly said and done all the right things, but sometimes when he's open and Lamar just throws
Starting point is 00:26:58 to somebody else because they're open too, it's kind of left him with some, you know, unfortunate lack of production. So it's kind of left him with some, you know, unfortunate lack of production. And before we get to our last two tough calls for week 18, or today's show anyway, just would like to ask you if you have 30 seconds to please vote for us for the Sports Podcast Group Awards
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Starting point is 00:27:35 I got Michael Pittman as a tough call. Coming off a huge game, 25.9 PPR fantasy points at the Giants, nine catches, 109 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets. He's got the Jaguars this week and he's been pretty good with Joe Flacco. He scored 12.5 or more PPR fantasy points in four of five games. The one game he didn't, he left early, not super early, played 76% of the snaps, usually close to 90%.
Starting point is 00:28:02 But obviously it's a good matchup. But I don't know. I was just surprised that it was, it was downs had such a nothing game. Cause usually downs had been really good with Flacco. Also, we don't know if it's going to be Flacco. So it could be Richardson, but how would you compare Michael Pittman to Zay Flowers Heath? I would much rather start Zay Flowers. I do have Michael Pittman as a number three wide receiver.
Starting point is 00:28:25 I don't know which one of Downs or Pittman's gonna be better this week. I think they're both high end number threes if Joe Flacco starts and they're both probably number fours if Richardson starts. But I'm not as excited about playing somebody in this offense as I am the Ravens. I would start Pittman over Flowers if Flacco's starting, I would start Flowers by a mile over Pittman if it's Anthony Richardson. Yeah, it's an easy call if Richardson's the starter. Last guy I have is Tyreek Hill.
Starting point is 00:28:53 Tyreek Hill, really good game last week at Cleveland. Jalen Waddle did not play, and Jalen Waddle might play this week. They're at the Jets, and obviously if Tua plays, you going to start him, but he's coming off nine catches on nine targets for 105 yards at Cleveland, but had been awful, awful without two in the previous four games. Are we back to trusting Tyree kill Jamie?
Starting point is 00:29:16 Did you lose that leak where you made the decision? I did lose starting Wicks over Hill, but I would have lost anyway. In a much closer male biter, I probably would have been just, I would have been so much angrier. So actually saved myself that by benching Hill for wicks. Keith, you should write a song about Adam losing, playing Don Tavine wicks over Tyra Gale. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:29:40 I think again, just based on the week, he's a number two receiver. So good, like where was this earlier? The effort to get him the ball when it was Tyler Huntley? Well, do you think, do you think while not being there made a difference? I think while I was averaging like six targets per game in those previous four games, probably, I mean, probably Cleveland helps. So if you know, you want to take that from a from Mize Flowers perspective that's something to consider also. It was a must-win game for the Dolphins and they got arguably still their best player of the ball. And it's a must-win
Starting point is 00:30:13 game for the Dolphins and I'm sure they're going to try and get their best player of the ball. Look, Devon Achan has benefited with Tua. Devon Achan has struggled without Tua. This is now an example of Tyree Kill benefiting without Tua. So, you know, if you want to ride the hot hand, hopefully that's the case. Adam, what's the weather supposed to be? Oh, I have no idea. It's actually really nice. It's like 40 degrees. It's been raining. It's still warm. Yeah. So that benefits the entire Dolphins offense, especially if Tua does not. Not that warm. It's going to be high of 33 on Sunday in New York City. I don't know about East Rutherford, but sunny doesn't look like we're going to get any weather like rain or anything.
Starting point is 00:30:51 Just treat Tyra because number two receiver borderline number three, like he's in the same range as a flowers. Okay. And that's it for my week 18 tough calls. All right, let's take a break and come back and talk about 2025 tough calls. All right, let's take a break and come back and talk about 2025 tough calls. Actually, we have a question in the chat real quick here. John who Smith, this week 18 question, John who Smith, Chico Conquo or Mike Kosicki, who do you like this week? John. Yeah, I go John.
Starting point is 00:31:21 Regardless of the quarterback? Yeah, much easier if it's two. Yeah. Okay. All right, we'll be right back on fantasy football today talking about Sam Darnold and a really cool stat about Sam Darnold and Kirk Cousins. We'll be right back.
Starting point is 00:31:35 By the way, Heath, if you were going to write a song about me benching Tyreek Hill, you could use the stranger things song, you know, keep running up that hill. Just gonna point you in the right direction. I'm not going to be writing any songs about you. Probably ever. But this would be like a insulting song.
Starting point is 00:31:52 So I just thought maybe you like stranger. You're a stranger things guy, right? Yeah. I, uh, I wish, wish that they would have finished it before all the characters retired, but, uh, it was great. I still was supposed to be in high school when they come back? This first shot is gonna be them like in an office
Starting point is 00:32:10 in their first job wearing a suit and tie. It's crazy. They don't even focus on the kids anymore. They're not even, I feel like they're not even the main, who's the main character? I think it's the, I think it's the cop. I don't even remember his name. Oh, yeah.
Starting point is 00:32:28 Definitely. He didn't, isn't he in like a, he'd been in a Russian prison for a long time now. Yeah. Or did he finally get out? I mean, I'm not gonna say anything. He's the character in the Marvel movie that's coming out where he, the red whatever, the new movie that's coming. Hopper, right? It's, oh,
Starting point is 00:32:51 someone said Harper. Nope, it's Hopper. Okay. Tough calls for 2025 as nominated by Heath, one at each position. Sam D'Arnold, he is the number eight quarterback per game in both six and four point per pass in touchdown leagues. He is averaging almost exactly the same amount of points that Kirk Cousins averaged last year in both four point and six point per pass in touchdown leagues. Difference is he's throwing about seven fewer passes per game, but he's running a lot more than Kirk Cousins did. But their per game averages are almost identical.
Starting point is 00:33:23 Last year, that was good enough to be QB five per game. This year it's QB eight, so it's a stronger year for quarterback. But that really stands out. If you want to make the case for Sam Darnold, you can say like two veteran, I mean, no, they're different, but two quarterbacks did the same exact thing for Minnesota last year, two years in a row. So the question is, is that a case for Sam Darnold or is that a case for JJ McCarthy? I was just going to say, can we just say Minnesota quarterback and not Darnold because there's
Starting point is 00:33:49 a clear chance that Darnold is not the guy. I think that's the reason, that's why he's so difficult to rank when we're putting together our top 12s for next week. Like he's easily in the top 12 if he's on Minnesota Viking and he might be not in the top 20 if he's a Las Vegas Raider. Like there's just a wide, wide range and like not just that, but there is always a little bit of skepticism when a guy who's never done anything like this before in what year six has a breakout career year, you have to kind of wonder, is there going to be any regression next year?
Starting point is 00:34:26 So I, I'm mostly just treating Sam Donald right now. Like, let's, let's see where he's playing. If he's in Minnesota, I love him. Probably anywhere else. I'm probably out. Right. This is, this is more the Gino Smith path than this is the Baker Mayfield, Jared golf path.
Starting point is 00:34:49 All right, go on. Well, Gino really never did anything. Donald really never did anything. Got to a spot where somebody believed in him and then started to play very good, if not in case of Donald. Great football. Baker Mayfield was good before he started getting injured and then had to find his way back to a starting job and now is showing how good he is. Cleveland obviously wouldn't much rather have Baker Mayfield than the quarterback situation in the rent. And, and golf, it was just like, okay, he had a couple of down seasons or down season with the Rams and they felt like they needed an
Starting point is 00:35:16 upgrade. It wasn't like Jared golf was bad when he went to Detroit. You know, I think we just kind of forgot that. Um, Donald has never done this before. So good coaching, great situation, great weapons. And I think the point would be is like, and so I'll ask you this Heath, cause I would, I would struggle. I am struggling with the same thing. If this is JJ McCarthy next year, you're obviously not going to rank him as a top 12 quarterback, but he's probably going to be relatively higher
Starting point is 00:35:39 than he would for someone who's never taken an NFL snap. Oh yeah. Yeah. I mean, I, I, it's not that hard for me to believe that JJ McCarthy could be as good as Sam Darnall was this year. Right. Um, and so he probably won't be a top 12 quarterback, but he'll be one of those guys you want to draft as a number two quarterback because of the potential of
Starting point is 00:35:57 what he could be. And this, this was the argument from McCarthy post NFL draft was, is he as talented as Drake may know, is he as talented as Drake May? No. Is he as talented as even Bo Nicks? Who knows? But his situation was arguably the second best. We thought Caleb Williams' situation was the best. And here's what Sam Donald has done with it. This is Kevin O'Connell. And there's some talk. And as a fan of a team, Adam, that needs maybe a head coaching upgrade, would you trade for Kevin O'Connell there and there's some talk and as a as a fan of a team Adam that needs you know maybe a head coaching upgrade would you trade for Kevin O'Connell would you trade two
Starting point is 00:36:29 first round picks for Kevin O'Connell no good god no well I mean there's been examples of coaches getting traded two first round picks man so what about this what if you after you beat the Eagles and you have the eighth pick in the draft, would you trade that pick for JJ McCarthy? The Vikings just, they're going to just keep Sam Darnold. Yeah. I mean, I don't know. I don't know. I don't know how to evaluate JJ McCarthy. I wasn't, I think he was a tough guy to evaluate to begin with. He didn't really do that much in college, right? Didn't really throw that much. Obviously Minnesota believed in him, but. And he's also a very tough dynasty call right now.
Starting point is 00:37:05 Yeah. Because like, what if they locked Arnold up for three years and just say, we're putting JJ McCarthy on the Jordan love path. Oh, if they, if they're smart and, and signed Arnold, you can trade McCarthy to a team that has a top 10 pick that that, because if you look at it right now, um, you know, talking to some people that are evaluating the quarterbacks McCarthy is considered as good if not better than Cheddar Sanders and Ken Ward as prospect. You know those guys aren't clearly the best prospects coming out and so can you get McCarthy
Starting point is 00:37:39 from the Vikings for a first I'm curious what Thomas would think like if you know Pete Priscoe's floated the idea of Brady. Like if, you know, Pete Priscoe has floated the idea of Brady as a Michigan guy, you know, going to run the Raiders, does he go get McCarthy for their pick now that it's not going to be, you know, the one or the two? And then they signed Darnold. It's like, Thomas, would you like that situation if you're as a fan of the team? Yeah, I wouldn't trade McCarthy for anything less than a first, if that's something that you can get.
Starting point is 00:38:09 I wouldn't be a fan of trading- Oh, you can get it for multiple picks right now. Are you sure? I mean, we've never seen this guy play besides a pre-season game when he's coming off a knee injury. So, I mean, I'm all for it if you can do it, if you can keep Darn Donald, but if you could franchise Donald and keep McCarthy for another year to see if this is like a fraud season,
Starting point is 00:38:33 I'm for that too. But if you can get a first round pick for him and you're not selling for a loss, that's okay with me. Franchising quarterbacks is tough. This is what happened to the giants. You franchise a quarterback, you kill your cap space, and you can't really do that much in free agency. So they franchise Barkley and they sign Daniel Jones, so they could do more in free agency that year. I mean, I guess there are other reasons behind it, but I don't even know what it is, $40 million
Starting point is 00:39:02 or something like that for a franchise tag for a quarterback. Well, you can look it up, but it cripples your cap space and you can't spread that out. You can't do anything clever with the contract. It's just, bam, big cap hit. All right, and just one thing I wanna mention about Sam Darnall, let's say he goes back to Minnesota. I think you're gonna look at the touchdown rate.
Starting point is 00:39:20 Fourth highest in the NFL, 6.9% touchdown rate. He threw a ton in the red zone and the green zone. He had the 12th most pass attempts in the NFL, but the fifth most in the green zone. He threw 20 touchdowns in that area and the Vikings had very few short yardage touchdowns. So like you go back, like just think about the Green Bay Minnesota game last week and Jordan Love could have had a decent game, but he marched him down the field and he hands off to Josh Jacobs for a touchdown and he hands off to Emmanuel Wilson for a touchdown and that almost never happened. They had five rushing touchdowns from inside the 10 yard line
Starting point is 00:39:54 from running backs this year. The Vikings that was like the fourth or fifth, fourth fewest in the NFL and that's just that's just the way fantasy goes? And he's on pace for 37 touchdowns, Sam Darnold, in large part because Aaron Jones hardly ever scores rushing touchdowns. I think it also could come down to who the running back is because Jones, 30 years old, free agent. K-Makers, if that's the guy, you know, they talked about how much they like him.
Starting point is 00:40:16 I don't think he's their answer. He's also a free agent. So this is probably a spot where you're gonna see a rookie end up. And how much of it is that rookie? Because based on your scenario, Adam, or Thomas' scenario, if they franchise Darnold a spot where you're going to see a rookie end up and how much of it is that rookie because based on your scenario Adam if they friend or Thomas is now if they franchise Donald and they have to be a little creative with some of their fill-in spots a rookie running back makes some sense as opposed
Starting point is 00:40:34 to let's say going and trying to sign Rico Dowdle. By the way he oh sorry yeah no I was just gonna say that's also like last year they had 30 rush passing touchdowns and seven rushing touchdowns. Yeah. Like, um, I think that's just kind of, it might be a Kevin O'Connell thing. The year before was 30 and 18, but like he's just going to, his offenses are going to score a lot more passing touchdowns than rushing. Uh, I have the third pick in our dynasty draft and I'm thinking I desperately needed a quarterback and I'm thinking, I desperately need a quarterback. And I'm thinking like, who could I trade that third pick for? You know, like which of the, I would not do it for McCarthy.
Starting point is 00:41:13 Someone's trying to get that pick for Pennex. Like, no, I'm not gonna do that. But you think about it, like who's a better prospect than Sanders and Cam Ward? Because I might get them, I might get one of them at three. If not, I'll get Gentie might get one of them at three if not I'll get genti but uh it's kind of an interesting thought on these rookie quarterbacks those two in particular mccarthy and pennix who didn't really do much of anything and what pick in the first round they'd
Starting point is 00:41:36 be worth and a super super flex leak by the way super flex yeah I would do that for pennix I would do that for Penex. I would not give up the third pick for Penex. I'd rather have Sanders or Ward. Yeah, I am. Penex doesn't run. He sees immobile. Basically, it's not immobile, but I don't know. And it kind of hurts my eyes to watch him through. I don't know why left handed basketball shooters like just and left handedhanded baseball swings,
Starting point is 00:42:05 like always look so pure and so beautiful and a lefty throwing a football, it just kind of makes me want to throw up. Well, you also have the situation, one of those guys may end up in Cleveland and not play. One of the- Rookies. Not play?
Starting point is 00:42:20 I mean, they keep extending Watson, like, this is a nightmare. There was just a report in the athletic that he's done playing a meaningful snap. They extended him to spread out the cap hits. Correct, but they're still paying him guaranteed money for two more years. Yeah, I don't know.
Starting point is 00:42:36 I think I'd rather have those. But you know what? I haven't really started the draft evaluation process yet. So, all right, J.K. Dobbins is next on the- Before we do have one week 18 question if you want to answer. Oh, I didn't see it. What is it? About tight ends? From VJ? Yeah. Would you still recommend O'conquo with Tennessee using both quarterbacks?
Starting point is 00:42:57 He said his other option is in the joku. So you may not have another option. It's a matter of you want to buy into Joanne Johnson, who could be on waivers or Gosecki, who could be on waivers. I think you just take your chances with Oconco at this point. So like after our show yesterday, I kind of reevaluated the order of tight ends and put Oconco back at the top. He just, he's the targets have been there. So just buy into that. Okay. JK Dobbins, he is running back 17 per game and full PPR 15th and non PPR that includes a game where he played only 30% of the snaps. And he feel be a tough call for
Starting point is 00:43:33 you next year. I think he's also a guy Jamie, you didn't say him, but I think he's a agent. Oh, yeah. So listen, he had some times this year, where he really looked like JK Dobbins, he also suffered another injury that caused him to go on injured reserve for four weeks and he's still just 26 years old. It seems like JK Dobbins would be one of those backs that were worried about how old they are, but if where he lands, if he stays in Los Angeles,
Starting point is 00:44:03 that's probably, uh, maybe the best spot for him, but where he lands, if he stays in Los Angeles, that's probably, uh, maybe the best spot for him, but where he lands and then the, the, the difference between like his upside and the huge glaring red cross injury warning on him as well. Uh, he's been used as a passing downs back for the chargers. He's been used as a passing downs back for the Chargers. I feel like that's unlikely to happen. Just a guess that, you know, the next team he goes to, if it's not the Chargers would have a third down back that took him off the field. Also, he's averaging, this is funny, a career low 4.8 yards per carry.
Starting point is 00:44:42 He's always been such a star. Pretty good. I think when you look at their team, you're trying to figure out, okay, how do they get better next year? And I think they need another receiver. So, you know, I think they're in the T Higgins mix, depending on what I don't know their salary cap situation, but I go get another big fish for Justin Herbert. They need to fix the interior of their offensive line because they clearly have the tackles locked up. The interior, I think, is still something that could be fixed.
Starting point is 00:45:12 Based on it seems how this offense has operated in the past, tight end would probably be something that they go look to try and get as well, you know, to upgrade over this Lee Hurst smart, you know, that's I think in another spot smart, you know, that's, I think, in another spot. So whether it's another receiver tight end, maybe that's how they do it. And I wonder just based on how they approach this year, knowing that, hey, we're going to run the ball, we're going to be a physical running team, and we're going to go get all the reclamation project of JK Dobbins and a 30 year old Gus Edwards, like just because we know those guys. And then they spent, you
Starting point is 00:45:41 know, a day three pick on a running back, you know, so is that the priority for them? So do they draft another guy and then pair them with Dobbins or do they go try and sign somebody? Again, it's not the best free agent class. So I think if Dobbins comes back as the lead guy, you take a chance on him as number two running back and that 15 to 20 range.
Starting point is 00:45:58 If he goes somewhere else, I'd be, this would be one that would scare me. Unless he just ends, like he could go to Minnesota, right? If they get him cheap. So the destination will certainly matter. This would be one that would scare me, you know, unless he just ends like he could go to Minnesota right if they Get him cheap. So the the destination will certainly matter I think if he stays though, it's it's a pretty good sign that you know guys who know him trust him and you know Hopefully it's a it's a good situation and you wonder how much of the IR Landing spot that when he landed an IR was protecting him from himself
Starting point is 00:46:24 You know, they saw their path to the playoffs that when he landed an IR was protecting him from himself. You know, they saw their path to the playoffs. I mean, if they were going to protect him from himself in 2024, why wouldn't they do that in 2025? He's still an injury risk. I will say- Like not rushing back in two weeks, give him the four weeks to be healthy, get ready for the playoffs. Give him the four weeks to be healthy, get ready for the playoffs. And just to put like his four career low 4.8 yards per carry in context, that was across 177 rush attempts.
Starting point is 00:46:53 There were 168 rush attempts for the rest of the chargers running backs. And they averaged 3.5 yards per carry. Wow. That's impressive. I Marvin Harrison Jr is currently wide receiver 33, oh no, 33 overall, 44 per game. He has only 110 targets, only a 52% catch rate. We know the deal. It's been a really disappointing season for him
Starting point is 00:47:18 in a year where rookie wide receivers are balling out and Marvin Harrison Jr. is not doing it. Do you think he's going to be a top 50 pick next year? Yes. Yeah, I think so. I think I wrote about this a little bit yesterday. This is a good time to say this. I've got brand new 2025 dynasty rankings coming out on the site today for quarterback running back wide receiver tight end. We've got brand new trade charts for super flex and one QB leagues over
Starting point is 00:47:47 on sports line coming out today. And I wrote about Harrison in the wide receiver, wide receiver rankings. And a rookie wide receiver having 57 catches for 800 yards and seven touchdowns did not used to be considered a colossal disappointment. There are a lot of very good wide receivers in NFL history, a couple of Hall of Famers who had very similar rookie seasons in 16 games. So I don't want to downgrade him too much. I really did not like their offensive plan for him this year. And I think you can hope that gets better. Um, but I, if he's a top 50 pick, it's going to be hard to make a lot of profit there maybe, but yeah,
Starting point is 00:48:35 round four, round five. I'm, I'm pretty excited about that. You wonder if, uh, if we had drafted him in round three or later, around four later, how the thought process would be on Harrison. I still think people would be pretty angry because wide receiver 44 per game. But not as, I mean like you when you see the players who have done well around him and after him like that's the problem. Yeah, it's a disappointment. I always bring this up. He basically has the fewest easy catches of any,
Starting point is 00:49:11 I can't even call him a must start wide receiver, but there's one guy that's similar in terms of targets of one to five area yards, that's Cortland Sutton. Cortland Sutton became a must start, but another guy that just doesn't get any easy ones, any layups. And I hope that changes for Marvin Harrison. He's, he gets almost no, he's 17 targets all year,
Starting point is 00:49:35 18 targets all year of one to five air yards. So wide receiver screen, something like that, just to give him a cheap 1.8 PPR fantasy points. It just almost never happens. That's Trey McBride territory. We're gonna, we're gonna give those to Trey McBride.8 PPR fantasy points. It just almost never happens. That's Trey McBride territory. We're gonna give those to Trey McBride. Yeah, I guess so. But there's no reason why Marvin can't get some of those too.
Starting point is 00:49:52 John O'Smith was the tight end that you had. He is the number two tight end in fantasy overall, number five per game since Tua returned from injury in week eight. He's averaging 15.3 PPR fantasy points per game in that stretch. This 17 game pace, John PPR fantasy points per game in that stretch. His 17 game pace, John Smith's 17 game pace since Tua came back.
Starting point is 00:50:09 And that includes last week when Tua didn't play. 99 catches, 1,006 yards, 10 touchdowns on 121 targets. Pretty, pretty good. But yes, obviously the history makes him tough to rank. If yes, well, it's his history and it's Mike McDaniel's history. And I think you talked about this at the beginning of the season about how Mike McDaniel said we got to be less big play reliant. And they went out there and scored nine fewer points per game than they did the year before.
Starting point is 00:50:38 So I guess that worked. I just and it was even five fewer points per game when two was playing. That's that's the, if you told me that they were going to have the same offensive plan going into next year, then it's easy to just buy into John O Smith's career year, because it was his first year in this offensive system. So don't worry about everything else, but you're talking about a guy who's going to be 30, who'd really never done anything like this before. And a head coach in Mike McDaniel, who seems to change his mind on a weekly basis about exactly how they want to attack playing offense. I can't believe that they're going to decide for another year that it's a better idea to have more targets going to John
Starting point is 00:51:22 who than it is Jaylen W Wattle, but it's possible. Jamie, what do you think? What do you think about John Smith? I think once we get past like the top five or six tight ends, depending on what Kelsey does, this is where John is going to be drafted, you know, so this is the tight end purgatory range of, you know, we fall for a young player that's getting an opportunity like a Dalton Kincaid or Kyle Pitts. We fall for a veteran guy that ends up on a team that seemingly in a good spot.
Starting point is 00:51:51 So like, for example, would you rather have John New Smith coming off of this year or Jake Ferguson with Dak back after what he looked like two years ago? Like that's the decision I think people have to make in terms of that type of range of tight end, you know, so, um, he's not getting drafted over Bowers or McBride or Andrews or, um, try to go missing, um, in that, in that range. But can I, I'll give you a name because I think someone that maybe gives you hope for Johnny Smith is David Njoku. Because Njoku, his first five seasons were pretty nothing. Then he had these stretches, you know, like
Starting point is 00:52:32 half seasons where he was good. But then last year, 2023, Njoku just had like a really good year, his best year, 882 yards, six touchdowns, but that's nothing compared to John Smith. But again, that's a great comparison because the joke who hasn't been great with the Sean. So if Watson does come back, I mean, like, look at all the numbers that he's put up with the non Deshaun Watson quarterbacks, but it's a great comp, you know, in terms of, you know, guy that gets a second opportunity somewhere. So Heath's question is certainly the
Starting point is 00:52:59 valid one. Now, the one thing that keeps me somewhat so I kiddles the one I forgot, excuse me. The one thing that keeps me somewhat sold on John is that this is still a Kyle Shanahan coaching tree higher and when he came to Miami there was, I forget who the Titan was, that they were trying to go get and then Tyreek Hill became available was like, okay, we're going to get Tyree. I forget, it'll come to me at some point. And so they, oh, it was Gosecki, I'm sorry. They were all in on Gosecki being sort of like their George Kittle. And then they had the opportunity to go get Tyree Kill and the offense changed. And so now you have an athletic tight end that can do a variety of things in this offense.
Starting point is 00:53:47 And now you see, I think what Mike McDaniel maybe had in mind. So does it come continually at the detriment of Waddle or Heath? Does it come at the detriment of a 31 year old Tyree Kill who may be slowing down a little bit, you know, and that could be maybe where the shift and the change comes. They also have one of the most dynamic pass catching running backs in the league right now in HN. So how much of it just is it, okay, now we can kill you four different ways, with Waddle unfortunately being the fourth. So I think he's still worth drafting as a number one guy.
Starting point is 00:54:15 He'll be going into a contract year. So that'll be year two of a two year deal that he signed if they don't extend him. This team has a lot to look at this off season. They may fire their GM. So that's a big storyline that's kind of there and, and keep McDaniel and then McDaniel is going to be, you know, one of the coaches on the hot seat because whoever the new GM is, if it's
Starting point is 00:54:33 not somebody in the building, do they trust him as the head coach of the future? So there's a lot of play. I will say the, the Nijoku comparison was a good, good one, but there are a couple of differences too. Like Nijoku was 27 when he break out. That's not that uncommon for a tight end to have a breakout at 26, 27. At 29, it's a little different. And Nijoku had two years where he'd had 600 yards receiving at least. Like, John who hadn't done that.
Starting point is 00:54:59 Yeah. No, it's not a perfect comparison, but I feel like people have probably written off David Nijoku at that point. And he showed that you could have a breakout kind of later in your career. Well, John, who also was like, you know, when he went to New England, it was okay, this guy has a chance to be a superstar
Starting point is 00:55:14 because of the contract. Like, you know, overvaluing, this is, you know, one of the mistakes of why nobody wanted Bill Belichick as the coach, because the personnel guy was terrible. But, you know, clearly there was some team and NFL people thought this too. Like, you know, this guy's got so much athleticism. And it hurt Kyle Pitts when he went to Atlanta, you know, like he just has the ability to
Starting point is 00:55:32 make plays and finally a coaches unlock that. Okay, thank you all for watching and listening. We've got one more question in the chat about running backs if you want to see it was a non PPR question with Garendo and Dobbins, somebody else I don't remember. All right. Oh, we got it from Harold. Garendo Dobbins Foreman or a Denver running back. I need two in standard scoring. First two.
Starting point is 00:55:57 Sure. There you go. Okay. And yeah, that's it for the show. So thanks for watching and listening. And we appreciate it. Tomorrow we're going to have starter sit for the show. So thanks for watching and listening, and we appreciate it. Tomorrow we're gonna have starters sit for the AFC home games. We'll do one 20, 25 question for each game,
Starting point is 00:56:10 and then we'll talk about the starts and sits. We'll do the same thing on Friday with the NFC home games. All right, we'll see you in FFT Express. If anybody wants to join us there, if not, talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football Today. You Paramount podcasts

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