Fantasy Football Today - Favorite ADP Values and Some Big News (06/08 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 8, 2026

We've got a spicy round of news and notes (3:10) as Christian Watson got a contract extension and Kenneth Walker needs to improve his pass protection. Why does Dan love both of these players at their current ADPs? ... We each tell you two players we love at their current draft values beginning with Heath's favorites (19:50) Jordan Addison and Kyle Pitts. Both players are being drafted around pick 95. How much did Pitts benefit from Drake London's absence last season and how much will he benefit from having Kevin Stefanski as his coach? ... Dan (33:45) loves Emeka Egbuka and Davante Adams at their current draft values. He explains why Egbuka will be better this season and why Adams is going to keep scoring touchdowns. And finally, Adam (46:35) reveals why Brock Purdy and Nico Collins are great values. And then we debate auction vs. snake drafts and Justin Herbert vs. Jalen Hurts ... Email us at [e-mail] Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcastsWatch FFT on YouTube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠FOLLOW FFT Dynasty on Spotify: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

This is fantasy football today from CBS sports. What a play! Can you believe this? It's a no idea. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races and he stays on his feet. It's just going to go the distance. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.

Be Monday, everybody. Another week of fantasy football talk here on fantasy football today. Four episodes for you, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. And if there's any breaking news, get ready for the bonus pods. But right now we're going to talk about some of our favorite values. It's Adam, Dan, and Heath. I want to say the first time ever, Heath, that it's been Adam, Dan, and Heath on consecutive episodes. Wow.

I think so? You think that's... You know, I just... I'm glad Dan is preserving the bit. What do you mean? Adam sent us a text this morning telling us kind of what we need for the show. I didn't quite understand, so I clarified, there was a string of... probably five or six texts that fully spelled out what we were doing.

And Dan, you know, he woke up about an hour and a half after we did and looks at the text and says, so what are we doing? Because he's not going to read the text. He doesn't read text. He doesn't read emails. Listen, when did those original texts come in? Was that over the weekend? Because I was probably doing.

No, it was this morning. It was this morning. All this morning about it. Okay. Well, I know what we're doing. I didn't even look at the timestamps. Like, didn't, just like, I've got some notifications. I see the last text, its names.

What am we doing? I thought we broke breads, watched the beef on F50 dynasty last week. Keith, we're putting the dynasty stuff behind us. I admitted it was my fault. I will do better. I won't have that same mistake next year. I mean, look, when the season end next year, I'm just cutting 17 players immediately. I'm not even going to give a chance.

I don't want to talk about this anymore. Like, enough, enough. All right. We got some news and notes. And then the players will talk about, on our most wanted list. I won't tell you whose is whose. We'll talk about Jordan Addison, Devante Adams, Terry McLaren, Kyle Pitts, Brock Purdy, and Nico Collins. But right now, let's talk about Christian Watson. So Christian Watson, a four-year 110.5 million dollar extension.

He has a $31 million signing bonus. The Packers gave Jaden Reed an extension earlier this offseason. That was three years, $50 million. So this is more than double that with one extra year. So a bigger financial commitment to Christian Watson and then Jaden Reed for what that's worth. And Dan, I think you sent in a list that in this aforementioned text message, you sent a list of players that you liked that they're ADPs.

And we're using, for today's show, Fantasy Pros overall PPR ADP. Christian Watson was one of those guys. And I said, you know, we'll talk about him in the news and notes. Let's select two other players. But now's your chance to talk about why you like Christian Watson's value.

Right now he is going as wide receiver 27, 55th overall. Yeah, I think the Green Bay. Packers told us why I like his value at wide receiver 27, 55th overall. When he returned last year, he became as close to a focal point as we've seen in a Packers, Matt LaFloor scheme as we can get since he's kind of taken over as that OC. I mean, we haven't had a focal point. And he's not that, which is why he's ranked all the way down at wide receiver 27.

But he was as close to being that as we've seen. And he had targets down the field. He had targets in the intermediate and short areas of the field that he just wasn't being utilized in earlier in his career, I think that's going to continue coming into this year with the possibility of an expanded red zone role as well, depending on what happens with the running back situation there. I think there's a definite opportunity, depending on what happens there at running back, for this team to go more pass first in 2026. So I don't ultimately think he needs to be a target hog to pay back this ADP. But I do think that he's being priced right now,

basically what I can see is floor being barring an injury, of course. And I think there's a real opportunity for him to break into that back end wide receiver one borderline wire receiver one wide receiver two range this season okay that's christian watson heath let's get your thoughts on watson last year finished his wide receiver 13 per game in non ppr 17th per game and half ppr 19 per game in full ppr he played 10 games he was coming on he did all this coming off at torn acl let's not forget which he did at the very end of the 2024 season. So he didn't play until week eight. Here's a fun stat for you.

Since he entered the league in 2022, here are your top five players, wide receivers, in fantasy points per target. And I think I set the minimum to 100 targets. Christian Watson is third. Jaden Reed is one. Jalen Naylor is two.

Christian Watson three, Jameson Williams, four, Kishon Booty, five. So that's a worthless stat for you. But what do you think about? What do you think about Watson going as wide receiver 27 right now? That seems about right to me. I think he's a really difficult player,

and this is a really strange contract extension, just because of the way the Packers have functioned and what Christian Watson has been so far in his career. I mean, he's going to be 27 years old this year. He does not have a 700-yard season. And the big part of that is because he, well, a part of that is because of the injuries. And there could be a year where he stays healthy. And I don't know.

They don't have a number one wide receiver. And they don't, they haven't thrown the ball more than 490 times the last two years. and Watson did give us a very small sample last year of earning some targets. But I just like, I think he's the quintessential boom bust wide receiver three. And at 27, like maybe he's one of the best boom bust wide receiver threes. I think he's very similar to James and Williams who's going two wide receivers ahead of him. These were guys who, oh, here. Go ahead.

Even last year, he had two games with more than six targets. Yeah. He did also have three games where he finished inside the top five scoring at receiver in just nine games, though. So he has, I guess it really does speak to what you were saying. Heath, there was done a boom bust because he also had what, four games where he finished outside the top 40 in scoring. So it was definitely more boom bust,

but even in that sense, you could still see that that was, in my mind, at least with, look, six touchdowns in what, nine games since returning, or was it six? I think it was actually 10 games, sorry. 10 games. He didn't play week 18. So the touchdowns were definitely up from past years on a per game basis. So I mean, it is a little bit of a bet on the Packers making an adjustment to how they call offense into the flow of this offense because it's been very run heavy.

But I feel like that's a decent bet to make given the trajectory of where this offense is headed. And we don't know what's going to happen on Josh Jacobs, obviously. But it's just where I'm at with it. Over the last three seasons, they've averaged 516 pass attempts per year. So back in 2023, it was 581. That's boosting that number quite a bit. But we'll include that.

So that would be 27 more passes than they threw last year. Christian Watson, when he was, when he played that week 8 through week 17, had a 19% target share. That's about, that's about 100 targets for a season. All right. So I'll just make you a little more optimistic if you want to buy into the narrative that things were changing for him. So he played those 10 games in the first three games. He had an ADOT of 25.9 yards, which is insane. And he had a 12% target share from weeks 11 through 18. This is where we saw a little bit of a different profile. He had a lower AD out. It's still 15.5 yards. It's never going to be a little. That's really high. But it's not super. It's not ridiculous. But he had 23.5% target share, 28.3% target per route run rate.

He left one of the games early, by the way. He averaged 2.78 yards per route run. And by the way, since entering the league, he's 16th in yards per route run. And basically every player ahead of Christian Watson in yards per out run over the last four years is or has been a superstar, with some exceptions. Like Luther Burden's on there, Jalen Wadle, Brandon Ayyuk. those are some of the worst names on the list. So I think, I went back and I looked at just the last three years. Can you be a top 24 receiver with 100, 105 targets or something like that?

And basically, the answer is yes, if you excel in two areas. One, yards per catch, which he's going to probably be one of the leaders, two touchdowns. And he's been good at those. So that's why I compared him to James and Williams. So James and Williams showed up on that list twice as low targets, but finishing top 24. Jordan Addison is another guy. Heath, I know he's someone you like.

Now you can get Addison 30 picks later than Watson, 40 picks later than Watson. But they kind of similar. You got to be efficient. You got to score touchdowns. So he can do it. But even at his best, that stretch where I mentioned he had a 23.5% target share. He was on base for 104 targets. So they're going to have to throw more, hopefully.

All right, Kansas City. Another guy that showed up on your list, Dan, of your favorite. values was Ken Walker. And Chiefs Offensive Coordinator, Eric B. Enemy, said that Walker, I praised what he was doing as a rusher, but he said he needs to get better at pass protection and route running. Can you be a stud running back if you don't really play on third down? Yes, you can. You can be Derek Henry.

You can be James Cook. Josh Jacobs played about 27 percent, ran about 27 percent of the third down routes when he was healthy. So it is possible, but you've got to get a lot of work and a lot of touchdowns. So why do you like Ken Walker this year? Well, it really starts with the second thing you mentioned. You've got to get a lot of touchdowns. And who is going to get those touchdowns on this chiefs offense at the running back position?

Cream Hunt. We've had two years in a row now where Cream Hunt was somebody who probably should have been drafted, wasn't drafted and was then scooped off all waiver wires. And ultimately, we had conversations Adam that I remember with you like, is Cream Hunt? It's Cream Hunt or X this week. And we chose Cream Hunt a lot because he was described as maybe a back-end flex, but the reality was in the midst of the season,

he became an RB2 because he scored touchdowns all the time. The chiefs get in the red zone all the time. This is one of those offenses. Obviously, this is assuming Mahomes comes back. And right now he's already practicing. So I actually have a feeling he might be back even for week one. We'll see he probably has more insight on that. But this is an offense that gets in the red zone early and often.

In addition to these expanded red zone opportunities of Cream Hunt not coming back, I think I'll have some of the most red zone opportunities in the NFL. Also last year, Isaiah Pacheco faced light boxes, I believe, more than any running back in the NFL. And he did nothing with them. He was the worst at that. And you're nodding your head. Is that not, is that incorrect?

No, it's high. The opportunities could have been there for Pacheco. It just, yeah, it didn't work. And he struggled. And it is what it is. Like, I don't know what it was for Pajako. He didn't have his best season. But the reality is they're going to continue to face light boxes at either the highest rate

or the second or third highest rate in the NFL because Patrick Mahomes is on this team. And that's NFL defense is play Mahomes. Even though Mahomes has really struggled with deep passing over the last two years, I saw the stat on it last week. It was pretty insane to even look at. It doesn't really matter. DCs are not going to change how they play him. They're going to play too high safety, split safety look,

and I can play at depth that they don't play when most teams at. So he'll continue to get opportunities that Pacheco was unable to cash in on. But Walker, the talent he is, I think we'll be able to cash in on those opportunities. So the combination of those two things, expanded red zone opportunities for him, in my mind versus what he had in Seattle and much better opportunities from a between the 20 standpoint. The opportunity, once you get down to the 40, 30 yard range of the opposing teams field, the chance to have big runs from there that could lead to touchdowns. I've never been a Ken Walker guy in my life. I've literally faded him every single year of my fantasy career. He's been on my bust fade list. And this is the first year I'm buying in because at this price tag, I don't necessarily think his upside is being priced in.

Okay. Isn't he like an early second round pick? Yeah. And I think he could easily be a top 10 score in fantasy easily. He's going 16th right now, Ken Walker. And he's in this group of running backs that don't really have a lot of backfield competition, I'd say, Heath. Devon A. Chan, I mean, Sir James Cook, Devon A. Chan, you can throw Gentie in there. And basically all these guys. Chase Brown.

But Chase Brown is going to lose third down snaps to P. Ryan. Amarian Hampton, does he have come? competition. That's the one. I look at it in this list, I go, Sequan Barclay, Devon, Chase Brown, Amarian Hampton, Ken Walker. Who's going to lose the most carries? I hope none of them, but I feel like Hampton would be my bet, Heath, if I were betting on one guy to lose carries in this group. Yeah. Yeah. So I have Hampton the lowest in that group in terms of total rush attempts. I think he probably does have a lower share of their rushes than Chase Brown, but

Chase Brown's team is going to run the ball so little that he's very, like Brown and Hampton are both right around 230 carries in my projections. And I've got Walker up around almost 270. Okay. All right, let's go through the rest of the news and notes here. Aaron Wilson of NBC Sports Houston thinks that second year receiver Jaden Higgins could have a breakout season. Higgins actually had a stretch of five games where he had seven to nine targets and four of those five games. He never did a lot with the, you never had more

than 55 yards. He did catch three touchdowns. Actually, I don't know if this will hold up, but Higgins, he had 12.3% of Houston's total targets, but he had 25.6% of their end zone targets. So he was used there. Denver linebacker, Jonathan Cooper, was arrested on domestic violence charges. This is a guy who basically plays every game has had eight or more sacks in three straight seasons. Mike Kay of the Charlotte Observer. I can't speak. Charlotte Observer.

He thinks Chuba Hubbard is going to come out of the gate with the lion's share of the touches, and he thinks that Jonathan Brooks will have a chance to earn more playing time as the season progresses. Tampa Bay, you know, we talked about their offense kind of struggled last year. One thing I basically never mentioned that their center, Cody Mock, missed all but two games, towards meniscus in week two. Well, he's participating in OTAs and hopes to be ready by training camp. Omar Kelly of the Miami Herald thinks that rookie wide receiver Kevin Coleman should be the dolphin's starting slot receiver. That's just his opinion.

And Chicago, the Bears, their board of directors, advanced a plan to develop a stadium in Hammond, Indiana. People are very unhappy about this. I don't understand that. I understand it, but the chief just did it. it's the same thing the giants have done for decades. Right. True. Like, it's just,

it is what it is. Yeah, it really, I don't know how far away Hamond, Indiana is from where they play now. Do you guys know? I just know it's 25 minutes from the, like Chicago loop from the city,

from what I heard. That's nothing. I know. I was kind of appalled by it too, and then I, like, oh, never mind.

It's just not something to be outraged over. I was outraged. No, I was sad when, the hurricanes moved from the Orange Bowl to where the dolphins play now. But my God, what a great decision that was. Why? Why is that such a good decision?

This old stadium was dilapidated pile of crap. And it was, the new stadium was like 20 minutes closer to where I lived. So it was, oh, yeah. So that's what, 30 minute drive from Soldier Field. Yeah, but those people in Elmerst are going to be pissed. And Wheaton. In Elmhurst? In Aprilville.

hour drive to the stadium. Look at the difference for them. Evanston. They had a decent drive now. Evanston's got to go way out. Well, we've been talking about Evanston so much on the show lately. I just feel bad because Arlington Heights almost had the stadium. That's where they were going to build at Arlington Heights.

I mean, imagine living in Crystal Lake. I mean, come on. Pour one out for your Crystal Lake Bears fans. Crystal Lake is getting killed here. The weather won't maybe be quite as bad. 30 minutes south. I don't know about that. Well, they're not on the water.

You're not on the lake. Yeah. Oh, I see that. The lake wind is a real thing. Living in Madison, Wisconsin for four years, the lake wind is devastating. So that's a good point by good take by Heath. We may have to adjust our weather. I don't wonder when this will happen.

I don't know what the timeline is, but can we get a 4,000 yard passer at Soldier Field? Maybe moving off the lake is what will do it. Maybe. All right, we're going to take a break. Probably going to have a roof anyway. I hope. We'll take a break and get a, get into the most wanted list for the three of us.

And also, we're going to have a little battle between Dan and Heath, a little impromptu battle between the two of these guys. That's something new. Right when we come back. We'll be right back on fantasy football today. Let's get into our most wanted list. We'll save the Dan Heath battle for after Heath's two players that he talks about,

which are going to be Jordan Addison and Kyle Pitts. They're going 95th, 99th overall right around there. Jordan Addison is wide receiver 45 in Fantasy Pro's ADP, and it's basically where he finished last year. He was 45th overall. He was 50th per game and full PPR. He was better in non-PPR where he was 43rd per game and 42nd overall. He was actually terrific with Carson Wentz in weeks four through eight on pace for over

1,300 yards and nine touchdowns. But, man, we'd basically have to throw out everything with J.J. McCarthy. So anyway, Jordan Addison is someone you like as wide receiver 45 right now. Yeah, he's been kind of similar. to Christian Watson in terms of being very efficient, scoring a lot of touchdowns, played with an awful quarterback situation last year, so it fell off. But everyone is expecting Kyler Murray to save Justin Jefferson, and Jordan Addison is just being drafted where he finished last year on a per game basis.

I think he is in that, I would rather have Christian Watson than Jordan Addison, but I think he's in that same boom-bust wide receiver group. You can call Watson a high-end boom-bust wide receiver three, and you can call Addison a low-end boom-bushed wide receiver three. In his career, Jordan Addison has been... So he's better in the other formats. Well, I'll just give you his worst format, which is full PPR. 31st per game, 25th per game, and 50th per game.

So in two seasons before the McCarthy era, 31st per game as a rookie, 25th per game as a sophomore, and non-PPR 23rd and 18th per game. I don't know. I haven't really been targeting him just because I don't know. Like, 2024, they threw for 4,379 yards and 35 touchdowns. 2023, they were, I think, even better than that. And I don't know.

It's guess it, oh, yeah, 4,700 yards and 30 touchdowns. You know what I'm saying? It's like, I don't know that they can get back to those heights. They can't get to 4,700 yards. Well, no, but he's being drafted as wide receiver 45. Yeah. Does he have upside? You know, what's his upside?

25th per game. Do you think he can eclipse that? That's his best finish so far, Jordan Addison. I mean, if Justin Jefferson stays healthy, then that's probably his upside. Dan, how do you feel about Addison? Hasn't typically been someone I'm targeted, but he's made a good case. We're just buying him right now at his absolute, what's probably his absolute floor. The issue is he's just one of these like Metcalfe.

type players. And I guess you could maybe put Watson in there. I think Watson will take a step forward, but I can totally understand if you would. These DK Metcalf, whatever, Watson, Addison type players, where it's like total in the end, it's like, yeah, they finish this wide receiver X, whatever it may be. But did you trust them on a weekly basis? Could you play them on a weekly basis? Because I see the argument being made all throughout Twitter for Metcalf. And like, on the surface, it makes sense. It's like, wow, Metcalf finishes wide receiver 26 last year. Now we're buying, now his ADP is Y receiver 36. How could it possibly be worse? It's like, well, it was a weird wide receiver 26 because they'll have a blowup week or two, but you don't start him because he had four weeks in a row where he killed you. So, I mean, in best ball, Addison is definitely somebody I'm

more interested in. But in these weekly start, start set leagues that we mostly play, it's just a frustrating player unless you feel like Murray can be what Sam Darnel was in 2024. And that's something that I struggle with a little bit. Darnold's bigger player, he's never had as much trouble throwing over the middle of the field, more explosive throw in my mind. It all senses the word. just more importantly, at least has displayed hadn't at the time, but has now since displayed that he can put together a rhythmic passing attack. Murray hasn't done that in a while, if ever. So while I'm definitely more confident in Murray than J.J. McCarthy, it's just that's the

big, like for me, for him to really become that weekly guy we can rely on and not have to like, here's 20 points, but here's three points, three weeks in a row. He needs Murray to step up. Yeah, I don't, I don't think he's going to become a weekly. guy that we just always know, but I just don't think those guys are available at wide receiver 40. That's fair. That's fair. Yeah, but you know, it's interesting. They're probably not available at wire receiver 30 either, so I think that's your point. It's, I, right, but if let's take a look at this list, you actually really, I struggled with this show today because I could give some names that I've talked about them. Like, I'm not going to talk about Chase Brown again, you know, I think people probably know who I like for the most part.

So I tried to pick, I did pick Nicole Collins, who's not new for me, but I tried to like be a little different. but I was looking at this range of receiver. And I really like it in general. I mean, to be able to be at 95 overall and get Quentin Johnston, Ricky Pearsall. Yeah, I like this group. You know, I'm not saying everyone's going to be good. But Quentin Johnson, Ricky Pearsall, Jordan Addison, Jacoby Myers, Josh Downs. You know, he thought about picking Jacobi Myers for today's show.

Josh Downs, you talked about last week as someone you liked when we did the player outlooks. I actually think there's, I'm not saying there's a league winner in this group, maybe. but I think this is good value guys that are not even in the top 40 at wide receiver. I like it. I see a lot of players I would struggle with starting on a weekly basis. Yeah, but we're talking about wide receivers 43 and we're not.

We are in round nine. You're not drafting starters. But you are drafting. These guys, you have to draft them thinking, well, they could become starters. And I can see the case for all of them. I want 100% believe Quentin Johnson could. I guess.

I like Jacobi Myers a lot more. Like if you're talking about a floor play, Gobi Myers is much more exciting. And even Wondale for me as a floor play, I personally probably would take Wondell over a lot of these players like Pierce Hall and players who have just not done anything in the NFL level. I could see that with Pierceall. The other guys I couldn't really.

I mean, Wondale could literally be the focal point of the offense, potentially based on what we've seen with Dable, if they want to make things easy for Camp Ward, at least for the first half of the season, maybe things evolve and they can evolve to a different offense. But he's the only one of those guys. guys we're looking at that has any kind of target upside, right? Who else has anywhere near the target upside of those players that Wondell, Downs, Myers,

Addison, Pearsall, Quintin-Johnston. I think Myers has target upside. It's just like Robinson. He's not going to turn them into a lot of fantasy points. Yeah, I mean, Wondell's got two straight years with 140 or more targets. One of those years, Malik Neighbors did play. That's pretty interesting. But I was actually going to pick Carnell Tate for this exercise.

I didn't because he's going just like a little too. too early for me to say I love his ADP. He's going around 60th overall, which is fine. But it's because I have, I don't believe in Wondell Robinson. And I just, I never have. No, and I, and nor should I have. I mean, he's, well, I think you could argue that you should have last year. I mean, I guess so. How was he not a good pick last year? No, he was a good pick last year, but he would not have been a good pick last year if Malik neighbors hadn't been out for the season. And Wondale, you know, he, what did he do the year before? Nothing. was there.

He had 140 targets, and he finished his wide receiver 36 overall. And he's being drafted at wire receiver 48 here. And he was 49th per game two years ago, probably a little bit higher, the 47th per game if I take out two guys who played once. But 47th per game with 140 targets two years ago. And since then, he's been paid $80 million. Yeah, what was a bad side? $8 million.

All right. Kyle, Kyle Pitts. You did make a good point about the target upside. Kyle Pitts is the other guy that Heath wanted to talk about. And he was the top six tight end in half and full PPR on a per game basis. So discuss Kyle Pitts, who is going 95th overall as tight end seven. Yeah, I did not choose someone new for this portion of the exercise. I just talk about Kyle Pitts every week.

I talk about Kevin Stepansky every week, really. It's almost guaranteed nine targets per game from the tight end position in his offense. maybe one or two of them goes to Austin Hooper or somebody else. But I think there's a very good chance we're getting north of 100 targets from Kyle Pitts once again. I think we see an increase in the yak because he gets more easy button throws in the Stefansky offense. I think there's, if not a good quarterback, at least a good floor between Tua and Pinnix. It won't be an absolute disaster. And I expect him to be second on his team and targets and potentially a top five tied end.

Okay, he's going 95th, and you would take Kyle Pitts when? Round six. Round six. Okay, so that's quite a bargain for Pitts. And my counter to that is just, you know, without Drake London, he had a 29.3% target share and average 19 points per game in PPR. With Drake London last year, he had a 20% target share and average 9.6 PPR points per game, which is, you know, like a streamer. Or the cousins, panic splits for pets. He was much better with cousins of them, not mistaken, right?

Yes, probably. But it's really, the entire Pitts argument comes down to do you believe that offensive coordinators matter? Sort of. It's the entire argument. Yeah, I don't think it's the entire argument either. But it is, you're right. I mean, look, I don't care as much about the offensive coordinator.

I do, but I also don't know necessarily if he, we talk about Sun Dynasty. he's not your typical Stefansky tight end. He's not a Y tight end. So, I mean, like if he's just lined up as a big slot in that offense, he doesn't really do that anymore.

Actually, one thing, he's played five years, Kyle Pitts, right? Yeah. In the first three years of his career, he was basically the highest A dot tight end in the NFL. And he lined up out wider in the slot,

you know, more than half the time. The last two years, he's had an 8.4 and a 7.4 yard a dot. I'm guessing 7.4 is probably like a little kind of average. You do see a lot of tight ends in the 5 to 6 range, 6 and a half.

It's a low A dot position with a lot of easy catches and yak. He's never been that guy, but he's getting lower in a dot. But the biggest difference is last year more than half of his snaps were in line. Yeah, they moved him to Y last year in that Zach Robinson, often's outside zone.

Like they need him there. And maybe this Sivansky sees him. Like he might just watch the team be like, all right, we can use him in similar ways or we can involve his game, which is good. Like, that's the upside case for him. I agree with Heath. The downside case for me is, like, he did most of his work with the quarterback who's not on this roster anymore.

And he has a huge extensive injury history. Those are the two things that scare me about pets. The injury history is interesting because he's played hurt so much. And maybe that's why we don't think he's that good necessarily. Or maybe some people don't think he's that good. So he got hurt in 2022 and he played hurt in 2023. Yeah. Were there other, like, he's only had one.

season where he missed a game. Yeah, I don't mean like missing time. I just mean he's on the field, but he's not effective. And he's got these nagging injuries that have been bothering him really since Florida. And maybe I'm overrating that. That's definitely possible. I see the upside case. I think for me, the bigger question mark is like why was so much of the production with

Kirk Cousins and without London on the field? I think you're missing. I don't think it's cousins. I think it's London. I thought it was Cousins. I want to look up. I just, I think the X factors probably London not being there, not the quarterback, necessarily.

You know what I mean? Panix doesn't strike me as someone who really utilized his tight ends at any point. He threw outside the numbers all the time at Washington and he did it with Atlanta last year. Tua is not someone really utilized in the middle of the field either. And Tua, you can sit there and say,

well, Jonu Smith had a huge season. Yeah, those are dump downs. Those don't count. Right. And John who had one of the lowest signed screens. Well, the dump downs are what Stavansky's done to tight ends.

You think Pitts will be, if Pitts is used in that way, that's a totally different outlook for him. I think another question is, Can Kyle Pitts just be kind of a normal Kyle Pitts, maybe a little bit better, and still justify 95th overall? I think he could.

You know, it's like an extra point per game. 95th is still a nice discount. And you could be fine, like, cutting him if you drafted him 95th overall. You're not so invested in the guy where it's like, oh, it doesn't work out. All right, you guys ready for your battle? What is it going to be?

Dan versus Heath battle. Oh, is it did fun to find J. Adams? No, it is. Oh. You each have 20 seconds to promote your podcast. Let's see who does a better job. Heath can go first. Heath goes first.

All right, wait. Dan, I have a number behind my back. I have a number behind my back, one or two. Dan, guess. Two. It's two. All right, Heath, you go first. Yeah, coming up on FFT Dynasty this week,

we are going to do a one QB startup mock draft. We'll have shows on Tuesdays and Fridays at 1130 Eastern, and it will only be an hour. All right, Dan, you're up. You come for more than an hour for beyond the box score, but this week you're starting to get the quarterback breakdowns in. Jacob and I have poured hours, and I literally mean hours of film,

into Trevor Lawrence, Caleb Williams, some of the most important impactful players. We're going to break down the tape. We're going to give you the stats. We're going to tell you about why you need to draft or avoid these players. Ooh, I think he just got that in. That was really good. Well done.

You guys, it's a tie. Well done. All right, Dan, first guy on your list is Terry McLaren. No, we swapped. No, he didn't. Yes, we did. Who did we swap out? I have Vic Bucca and Devante Adams.

Oh, you want to do Abuka in Adams? You okayed this. Abuka is my favorite. Sorry, I thought we were doing McLaren in Adams. No. A Bucca and Adams, it is. Okay, Abuka, if I remember correctly, he's going about 42nd overall. Let's see, 40th overall.

Wide Receiver 20 for a Mecca Bucca. In that range with Garrett Wilson, Terrell McMillan, Luther Burden, and even Terry McLaurin. So, all right, Abuka, go. Yeah, Egmeca, Abuca, one of my favorite breakouts this year, entering year two of his career, natural progression from understanding of playing faster, understanding where to be on the field. But the reality is, when it comes to Gbuka, we had to watch so much bucks tape

for Beyond the Boxer last year. They were one of our feature. It was the Bucks and the Bears. I feel like we watched more tape on them than any team. And there was no game that went by Adam where I didn't see a, Emekaabuka, winning on a double move on the outside, getting open vertically and Baker either didn't see him. Baker didn't throw the ball on time or he didn't throw it accurately. He was in a lot of ways the sacrificial X once Mike Evans got hurt.

This year, we've already heard them say he's not going to play that role anymore. He's going to play the move zero, which is the exact role he needs to be playing. It fits his skill set better. And more importantly, it's going to get him an insane opportunity at targets. I think it could reach the 130, 140 range of targets, potentially even more, as the complete focal point of this offense, the best receiver in this offense, the ability to still win on those vertical routes if Fitman Baker can improve the timing,

but game's going to slow down for him, his report. Baker gets better, and more importantly, he plays this role, this featured role. And from a target upside standpoint, at that spot of the draft wire zero 40, I don't think you have anyone who has anywhere near the target upside as Emeka Buga does. Not McMillan?

I think that passing often sucks so bad, no. You were doing a great job until you said the target thing, because I think, no, I think Garrett Wilson, has... Garrett Wilson, again, bad offense that can't move the ball passing-wise,

they're punting a lot. He's been on bad offense. No, no, no, that's a thing. He's been on bad offense. If you're saying target share, percentage, sure. Look at his career. Actual targets.

He's, he's, he gets like eight targets a game, Garrett Wilson, every year of his career is on the worst offense in football. So I don't, unless you think the Cooper. I'm not saying all targets are equal. Of course, I'd rather

the Baker Mayfield, Mayfield targets. The point I'm trying to make here. But he, but, okay, go ahead. I just don't. I think Dan's right if we get good Baker this year. I have absolutely no idea what Baker Mayfield were getting.

He was hurt. And remember I talked about Cody Mock like a half hour ago, their starting center. He played guard in 2024, but he rated as, according to PFF, he was the 10th best pass blocking guard. I don't think that this note should be what sways you.

But it will help to get him back in the interior of their offensive line. Yeah, I think I'm more convinced just looking at Baker Mayfield's career from a statistical standpoint that 2024 is the clear and obvious outlier. Fair. It's the Liam Cohen year. You could say the same about Trevor Lawrence probably. Except he still has them. And he gets to keep going.

He finished 2023 strong though, too. Right? So he kind of carried it over. Yeah. But just looking at the full season. I don't think he's going to get back to 2024 numbers. Let me be clear, because then a Kbuca should be a top 10 receiver, top 12, in my mind. He also started the, I mean, Baker Mayfield scored 23 or more, 22.9 or more fantasy points in five of his first six games.

But don't you remember how that happened? And his deep balls to Abuca? It was like, man, this has been a terrible performance from Baker Mayfield for about, except for three. place. I don't know. I don't remember it the same way you do. I thought that he was in the MVP conversation.

He was. He had a bunch of long touchdowns. He also played Houston, Philadelphia, and Seattle in that stretch. He had one interception in that stretch. In that stretch, at Buka finishes a top seven scoring receiver in three of those games, including first and third overall.

Everyone got hurt on that team at some point and played through it. I gave the stat last week that Abuka ESPN said, Before his week six hamstring injury, he had 11 routes of at least 18 miles per hour in the first six weeks of the season. And he had the first five weeks of the season. Then he had 11 routes in the last 12 weeks of the season of 18 miles per hour.

So he just wasn't running as fast after the hamstring injury of Bucca. I don't know. I mean, I feel like even if Baker just has a decent season. Look at the wide receivers that are going around him, right? Like Garrett Wilson. And I'd even say Luther Burden because I don't know that Caleb Williams is going to put up gaudy pass. passing numbers. Teterola McMillan,

right? Zay Flowers. Yeah. Baker's going to throw for more yards than Lamar Jackson, I think. Certainly going to throw for more yards than Bryce Young and Gino Smith. All right.

I know Dave is on your side. He loves a Mecca Buka this year. Yeah. Dave also loves commercial breaks. So in the sense, in honor of Dave, let's take one of those. And we'll talk about DeVante.

Adams when we come back. And I think Dave loves Devante Adams this year too. We'll be right back. I think Dave loves commercial breaks. Dave loves Dan Schneier. We'll be right back. Devante Adams going 50th overall wide receiver 24. Why do you like him so much, Dan? Yeah, it's just printing again for Devante Adams. He's a player I targeted in all drafts last year. If it wasn't for the injury at the end of the year, he probably would have been top five, right? Top five, top six value buys in all of the draft last year where he was going. He's going even later this year, right? It seems like now he's a year older. I guess that's being used against him. But it's a similar exact case to what I made for Christian McAfrey as my RB1 before last year. All these other guys, there are a ton of factors in play.

Will this happen? Will the targets happen? Will this happen? Whatever it may be. With Adams and players like Adams and Christian McAfee, there's only one question after you ask yourself, is he going to stay healthy? Because if he stays healthy, he is going to be someone who is impossible to defend one-on-one in the red zone with his release package off the line of scrimmage, his report, with Matthew Stafford, Matthew Stafford's ability to place the ball wherever the heck he wants, with velocity, with accuracy. And again, when you have that ability to win with the quick release off the line of scrimmage in the red zone, and you know you're never going to see one situation where you're going to have a safety shaded over to you or a line baker cheating,

it's always going to be a one-on-one as it's been. You're going to score double-digit touchdowns as long as you stay healthy. So we have a, what I feel like is a near guarantee lock at double-digit touchdowns for a player here being drafted at a wider super 24. This is still a game, as much as we want to talk about targets and receiving yards, as much you want to say touchdowns regress, it's still a game where touchdowns decide fantasy value and touchdowns decide fantasy production. I've made this case a while.

And while it is more likely to predict regression in either direction for touchdowns versus yards based on targets and all these other factors, there are some guys that just score, Adams, Derek Henry, these guys just score over and over and over again. And so for me, I'm getting double-digit touchdowns. I probably will never get the target volume he at early in his career, the receiving yards. I don't really care, though.

I know I'm going to get, as long as he stays healthy to 10, maybe more touchdowns. I mean, last year, as I'm rolling through, before Devante Adams got hurt, he finishes a top 10 receiver. One, two, three, four, five, six games.

That's insane for a player we're paying wide receiver 24 price for. He got injured in week 15, by the way, didn't return. And two of those weeks were, or three of those weeks were top six finishes at wide receiver.

So it's like a back, middle to back end wide receiver, sorry, mid-wide receiver won those weeks from a scoring standpoint. So again, it is touchdown heavy, obviously, at 14 touchdowns last year. And that's with missing three games. I think we'll get to 14, 15 again. Why not? Okay.

So Dan's right that he is one of those guys that just scores touchdowns. He is the active leader in receiving touchdowns with 117. So he's done this basically since his third year. in the league. In that he still for his career has a 7.2% touchdown rate. If he would have had a 7.2% touchdown rate last year, he would have scored eight touchdowns. Yeah, you think he would have been a top 24 wide receiver? You're saying his rate was just too high versus career last year, which is fine.

Not just versus his career. Like his career rate for anybody else in a given season, you would say he's not going to score that many touchdowns again. Not anybody. Most other players, like 7.2 is, it's high. but you could do it. That also includes a year with Jimmy Garoppolo. And that includes all this other context for me

where it's like, I don't want to take a career rate knowing he was dragged down at times by players like Jimmy Garoplo when I know he has Matthew Stafford now, who quite frankly, he scored, I think he's better from a touchdown standpoint with Stafford than he was even with Rogers, as crazy as it sounds, based on the scheme that Brams run, based on the different opportunities that I watched with my own two eyes last year. I mean, it felt like printing money with them too in the red zone.

I don't really see what's going to change. I love Aaron Rogers. He's obviously an amazing quarterback hall famer, but they seem to have a better connection in the Red Zone, Stafford and Adams. All right. So, Heath, you're saying in the 14 games Devante Adams played, if he had had that touchdown rate,

he would have scored eight touchdowns. Right. So two fewer fantasy points for his career, nor. Yeah, so I subtracted 36 points from his total. I divided by 14. You get to 13.4 points per game, which last year would have been, or 13.3, that would have been about

wide receiver 18. However, the year before that, that would have been wide receiver 31-ish. So, you know, 13.3 fantasy points per game last year would have been pretty damn good. Other than that, it's usually, you know,

top 30, 24 to 30, something like that. Just, but that's just one stat. I mean, you know, the time. Yeah, I would love to see that stat taking out the Oakland years. I'm with Wiscoe dad in the comments. I just don't care about what he scored during his time of Oakland and Jimmy Garoppolo. I mean, I don't know about that. No, he's benefited from-

To me right now. I don't see why it matters. Touchdown season with the Raiders. What did you say? He had a 14 touchdown season with the Raiders. In one of those two years. Okay. Well, that helps.

All right. And also, you got to remember, Matthew Stafford, look at his five years with the Rams. He's been all over the place. Like, Matthew Stafford is going to regress. He's not going to be as good as he was last year. No. We threw 48 touchdowns.

Of course, his touchdown rate doubled last year. The three prior years, Matthew Stafford's touchdown rate was 3.3%. Well, he didn't have Devante Adams. I know, but it's like an exaggeration. It's a chicken or egg thing right here. This is like a caricature of what the Adams-stafford relationship should be. Right. Last year was the best case scenario.

Yeah, he's going to catch touchdowns, though. I don't think anyone doubts that, but 33 years old. All right, that's Devante Adams and Dan likes Abuka and Adams, among others. And mine were kind of tough for me. I'm just not seeing any, oh my gosh, I can't believe this is incredible value players right now. I'm not going to try to force it. But I think Brock Purdy, now I don't really like him at 90, where is he, 96th overall, Brock Purdy. But I do like him as QB14 overall.

I would just hope that QB14 goes later in your drafts than top 100. But why do I like Brock Purdy? And spoiler alert, I like him less than I. I did when I sent the text message when I looked into something. That was like two hours. Yeah. Well, last three years, he's finished as QB6, QB11, and QB4 per game in six point per passing touchdown leagues.

QB7, QB10, and QB6 per game in four point for passing touchdown leagues. So getting him a QB 14, he's been better than that three straight years. He's been much better than that. Top six per game or seven per game and four point in two of the last three seasons. He runs the ball now. He scores some rushing touchdowns. I watched his rushing touchdowns over the last two years. You have a lot of option looks where he keeps it and scores.

You have some QB sneaks in there. So I don't think it's completely fluky that he can score four or five touchdowns on the ground. And I think what you're seeing is that the 49ers defense is not what it once was. I understand they're going to be healthier than they were last year. But I don't think they have a great defense. And as long as they don't have a great defense in the Shanahan era, they throw the ball. When they've had a top 10 defense, they don't throw the ball. But they've gotten more pass heavy the last couple of.

years. And I think what we're seeing is that this team is transitioning into Brock Purdy's team. I think that's been pretty evident. So I think he's basically a lock to finish better than where Purdy's being drafted, which is QB14. He has shown twice in the last two years. He has top six upside. Why do I like him less than all the things I just said would indicate? I hate his schedule. He gets the Rams twice, which is tougher now. But even before that, they went out and got two cornerbacks from the chiefs. He gets the Seahawks twice. He gets the Seahawks twice in the last two games he faced the Seahawks last year. He scored less than

11 fantasy points combined. That was a playoff game too. He gets Arizona only once. He plays them in Week 18. He gets Denver. He gets Minnesota. Minnesota allowed one passing touchdown in their last seven or eight games. That sucks. Yep. He's also

fantasy playoffs for Brock Purdy at the Chargers at the Chiefs and home against Philadelphia. Oh, in the cold in Kansas City. That's no good. I can't, and he plays at the Giants which should be pretty cold a couple. weeks before that or a week before that. Now, I can't predict the injuries and all these things, but it is worth noting last year he went berserk in these great matchups in the fantasy playoffs. Right. And before that, Arizona, Tennessee, Indianapolis, Chicago. Chicago was a layup at the

end of last year. They were so injured. Right. But if everybody were to stay healthy, he would have a really tough schedule. So I like him less than I like to like him. But Brock Purdy is a terrific player on a great offense who throws a lot of touchdowns, runs for enough yards and touchdowns, and will probably crush QB 14. I'm going to try to try to turn you back around and get you liking Brock Purdy more again, just because I always have, I love Brock Purdy stats. Over the last three years, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hertz are the only three quarterbacks who have scored more fantasy points per game.

Wow. In six point past touchdown leagues. He is QB4. Wow. That's amazing. Since he entered the league, there have been 30 quarterbacks who have thrown at least 1,000 passes. He ranks first in yards per attempt, a half a yard better than anyone else. Second in touchdown rate, one of only two quarterbacks with Lamar Jackson over 6% in terms of touchdown rate.

First in success rate at 52.4% a point and a half better than anyone else. second and pass a rating behind only Lamar Jackson. What do you think of the schedule thing? It's not ideal, but like if they, if they're going to, like, they might have to just throw 570 passes. Yeah. Probably not going to 600. And if they do, and he's being drafted at QB 14.

Yeah. Like, it's stealing. Yeah. I hope so. Also has the best touchdown maker he's had at any point in his career, Mike Evans. Yeah. I do think you have to be a little concerned about Evans being 33 and Kittle coming off an Achilles injury. For sure.

But they didn't have any receivers last year. Right. They always find a way. I mean, he had Juan Jennings, but he can't. No, last year was as bad as it got for him receiver-wise. Yeah. All right. Nico Collins is my other guy and my argument for him would be that he was wide receiver 11 last

year on a per-game basis in full PPR. Wide receiver 10 in non-PPR on a per-game basis. And currently he's being drafted at the two-three turn. Yeah. Somewhere around wide receiver 9. He's such an easy win. Wide receiver 8, I think, an ADP, so that's a little bit better than how he finished.

But I just kind of feel like it can't get worse than it was last year for NEO. Such an easy win. You think so? I mean, I just don't see him finishing worse than what wide receiver 12. And he had the injury last year that a couple injuries at a concussion that kind of nagged him. Well,

I mean, he has injuries every year. He does. Yeah. You're kind of dismissing the Niko Collins injury after talking about Kyle Pitts inability to stay healthy. And I think Nico Collins is of a significantly worse injury risk than pits. Interesting.

I have a trouble. There's two receivers that go in the same range. I have trouble to figure out who I like more, A.J. Brown or Nico Collins. I think both of them were- Nico for me. We're basically hit their floor last year. And they're going back to back as wide receivers eight and nine at the two-three turn. I think they're both personally, I think they're both fantastic picks.

there. I like this rejuvenated AJ Brown playing for his childhood team with Drake May. CJ Stroud and that offensive line could definitely hold him back. Could hold Nico Collins back. But you know, I don't really take any target competition seriously for either

Nico or AJ Brown. And I think if you take them both, I think that would be a pretty solid strategy personally. Not nice. You have to. There's some good players there. I mean. Yeah, it's interesting year for auction drafts because there's a lot of players in this range that I think could be good values.

It's almost like a good year to wait. All right. Does anybody think that Nico Collins is not a good value at 23rd overall? I like him. I think like several of the guys we've talked about, I have him almost exactly where he's being drafted. I have him 21st, so I think he's a good value. I think when it comes to round two, I don't know if this is true for the entire round.

Thomas, could you scroll up just a little bit, go to like 12th overall in ADP? sorry the other way yeah so we're talking we're talking a chan barkley chase brown hampton ken walker drake london brock bowers

tray mcbride derrick henry jeremiah love i don't think i'd take him there nico collins a j brown i don't know that i have a big issue if those guys for the most part go in any order yeah you know i can see that huge tier

he thoughts on that Yeah, I think for the most part, that's, I would agree with that. It's a good year to have it. I mean, it feels like every year to me, but it's a good year to have an early snake pick. I feel like I say this every year. It's just why snake is just a very bad format, but trying not to talk bad on it, trying to be a better person, even though auction is a thousand times more fair and equitable. I'll try my best to say snake is somehow okay.

I don't think you understand. This is like, you don't like the show Friends, right? I never said I didn't like the show Friends. I don't watch Friends and I've watched it a few times. It's okay. I would not say I don't like Friends. You're missing the point of Friends.

Friends is a show that makes you feel good, feel warm and fuzzy inside. Is that what Snake Drafts are supposed to do? Yeah, snake drafts bring people into fantasy. You know, you would have a, you would have fewer entries into the fantasy world if auctions were the only way, you know. kind of like the wire or something like that or Game of Thrones, whatever it may be.

Like once people start it, they're hooked and they never go back. But everyone I ever know who I turned on to auction has never gone back to snake, ever. That's, first of all, what you just said is so false. You're telling me that anyone you've ever introduced to auctions has never gone to snake draft again? How could you tell me that's false? These are people I know. They've never done, they've never done a snake. You yourself do snake drafts.

No, I don't mean that. I mean, if they've turned a league from auction to, or from snake to auction, But that specific league has never gone back after experiencing what an auction could be. No, because a third of them dropped out after the auction. No, no one dropped out. People have time. People have four hours on one day. You don't.

You're way too busy. I'm not way too busy. I didn't see the email that you said. Okay. So Thomas has a good quote here. Thomas says auction is Seinfeld, Snake is friends. And I can see that. I'm fine with that.

I've always described as auction as like playing Madden on the all pro mode and snake is rookie mode, which is fine. I understand people like rookie mode. I just don't think like when we look at it like this and we're like saying what you just said at him, like, oh, it looks like all these guys in this range can be interchangeable. Well, you can't say that about Jemir Gibbs and about Bijon Robinson versus like the back end around one. Well, I is what it is.

I think versus the back end around one. Right. Yeah. But it is what it is. But it's not always, it doesn't always work out that way. obviously we're going to be wrong. We just said like 10 players. There's no way they're all going to be even in points per game.

Some of them are going to be horrible. Some of them are going to be great. Yeah, I mean, that's fantasy. Yeah, kind of is what it is. But I do think I really want an early pick. We always get the question, oh, where should I pick? Oh, you need early. I don't always say early, but this year I definitely feel top five.

I love it when I'm at the, because I'm always at the back of our drafts. For some reason, Jamie always puts me like 10 through 12. He has nothing to do with it. I always tease him. It is random, but you do seem to them. I'm always 10. through 12. And I take Jonathan Taylor and Drake London. And I'm like, wow, this is a pretty awesome start. I don't think Drake London's the same as the guy as really Nico Collins are the

guys you get at the end of round two. No. You don't think. Oh, man. All right. Well, I think I have the gap between getting Bejan or Gibbs is wild this year. Why is London a better pick than Nico. Why is London a better pick than Nico? Well, I mean, for me, because I haven't projected to score 40 more fantasy points. Let's see.

Nico outscored him in 2024. I'm guessing London outscored Nico in 2025. I can't imagine any other year of their career London outscored Nico. Nico outscored him by, yeah, 1.7 fantasy points last year. Nico still outscored him?

No, I'm sorry, London. Yeah, yeah. Nico outscored London by 1.2.1 in 2024 and London won by 1.7 in 2025. So to me, just based on that sentence, I feel like they're pretty even. Well, there's also the possibility, like the best stretch we ever saw from London was panics. We'll see, but I don't think too helps London at all. We'll see what happens there. well London is the guy who has been only good with

Penix right right yeah yeah yeah that's my point so like if Pennix doesn't end up winning that job that is also Nico doesn't have that qualifier or that like extra factor feels like it feels like maybe could be a topic for tomorrow's show because I have to go through Heath's rankings and find the ones I disagree with and argue with Heath yeah that's what Dan did on Friday's FFT dynasty I just disagree with my mostly Jalen Hurts where do you think heath has jalen hertz ranked as a dynasty quarterback at him

sixth fourth oh that's too high fourth he's he's got a 30% chance of having one more year as a starting quarter that's what i was saying that's the most ridiculous thing i've ever once the eagles move on what's going to have the eagle no who would want jaylon hurts if the eagles move on everybody has wildly better options than the guy that wins seven 70% of his games and has been to two Super Bowls and is a top five fantasy quarterback for the last three years. Besides the last point you made. He's basically just Justin Fields. Besides the last point you made, those first two points were just QB wins argument, Pete, which I don't know if you're a QB wins guy, but I've grown to think you might be.

The third point, I mean, he's on a specific team that gets him put push push touchdowns every year. Will that continue once he's off that team? So do you think that NFL teams care about QB wins? not really not sure I 100% do no no I think if you had two

quarterbacks who had both produced similar numbers of production and one of them their team had won 11 games over the last three years and one of them their team

had won three games over the last three years the guy who had won 11 is much more likely to get another chance as a starter if they had the same numbers but I don't see how they could have

the same numbers One would win three and one win 11, but, but probably not. But also it's like, I don't know if these teams are right looking at numbers as much as they're basing it on like their evaluation of the tape. I agree. I agree with that maybe. I mean, yes, if they had the same numbers and one guy won 11 games, yes, he would. I don't think these teams are going and by the numbers though.

So that's my main qualm with that argument. Yeah. There's just such a narrative that's been put out there over and over again about how Jalen Hurts like doesn't read the defense as well. It doesn't go through his progression. It doesn't do a lot of things. But at the same time to me. for me to imagine that there are 32 better quarterbacks than football.

He has looked amazing in the playoffs somehow. I don't even know how because he doesn't look like that ever, almost in the regular season unless he's playing a bad team. But like the playoffs, he's looked amazing. So good for him. He's like a big game quarterback. Yeah.

Can you do it without A.J. Brown? That's a big question. Well, it's not just AJ Brown. It's Jordan, my lot. It's Lane Johnson. It's Jason Kelsey for most of its career. It's the best roster in the NFL by far from Hallie Roseman. And it's not even close every single year.

You love Hallie Roosevelt. I mean, look at the team. Look at the roster. Look at their defense. It's obvious. But he really went on quarterback. Two stud receivers and Barkley. It literally just doesn't get better.

He is by far and away the best supporting guests in the NFL. You just have to wonder, Ethan, how many quarterbacks would thrive in that offense? Right. It would hope it would be pretty much all of the, most of them. Can you even just imagine Justin Herbert in that offense when their O line is healthy? Oh, man. Justin Herbert.

Herbert in that offense. If he could just get some good players. Well, now he does. And you're about to see what it's going to look like. All right. So Heath, every quarterback is. a free agent, you're an NFL GM. Actually, no, only two quarterbacks are free agents.

Jalen Hertz and Justin Herbert. Which J.H. are you going with? What's the rest of my team? What's my offensive quarter? What offense does my offensive coordinator? Well, you pick the coordinator after the quarterback. They both have the best offensive line. So I'm just picking the quarterback at the start. I'd probably take Herbert.

Okay. Okay. But I think that we have, for his entire career, acted like Justin Herbert, made excuses for Justin Herbert and discounted everything good Jalen Hertz has done. I'm pretty pro-hirts. I don't think everyone discounts. He was so bad last year. Jaylenerts.

There are a lot of Jaylenards people like you like him. I like him too. Most of them live in Philadelphia, but you don't. You're one of the exceptions there. I think there's a 30% chance that he's not on the Eagles next year. Maybe I went too far saying he won't be a starting quarterback. But things could be.

If he's not on the Eagles, his fantasy value is beyond tanking. Can we at least if that? I don't know about that. Beyond tanking. No, just from where it's at now. to where it's going to be. Like, if we say, like, Heath Adam has this QB4 and Dynasty and you said six, Adam,

or that was your guess, I don't know where you'd have him. But let's say it's in that range of four to eight. Any other team, his dynasty value, it's dropping by at least five, six months. Dan, you're starting a new team and you can have 22-year-old Jalen Hertz to start your franchise. Goes back in time. Or you can have 22-year-old Daniel Jones or you can have 22-year-old Jackson Dart. It's dark for me. It is.

No. I'm going to go with Hertz. It's close between Dart and Hertz for me. Okay, wait. One more question. You can have those three quarterbacks or a 22-year-old Wondale Robinson. I don't love Wondell as a player. I just say 140 targets in two years in a row.

It now gets the same O.C. We've got them, though. That's pretty much printing. All right, we've got to go. We'll talk to you all tomorrow on Venice football today. See you later. On podcasts. Now streaming, only on Paramount Plus.

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