Fantasy Football Today - Favorite Stats! And 0.5 PPR Strategy (07/28 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 28, 2021

Nominate us on PodcastAwards.com! https://www.podcastawards.com/app/signup We sure do love stats, and here are some of our favorites! Do you know how quickly Ben Roethlisberger released the ball in 2020 (2:15)? Do you know how much better Patrick Mahomes has been than the rest of the QB field over the last 3 seasons (6:15)? Why isn't Mahomes being drafted earlier? ... Let's talk about 0.5 PPR leagues (17:04). How should your strategy change? What should you do if you're choosing between Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon, for example? Then we'll update you on the latest news (24:15). Is it time to move Saquon Barkley down in the rankings? ... More "favorite stats" from Chris and Heath. Are handcuffs really worth drafting (29:30)? How underrated are Mike Williams (34:10) and D'Andre Swift (37:40)? Which backfields produce the fewest RB fantasy points (38:50)? ... Your emails at [e-mail] 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben. Some of our favorite fantasy football stats for 2021. We're going to talk about it right now on Fantasy Football Today. And to do this, we've got a couple of statty guys. Chris Towers and Heath Cummings. Hello, stat friends.

Hello. Hello. I feel like, I feel like everybody who plays fantasy football is a statty guy. Some are statty, others... The whole game is stats. That is true. That is true. Welcome to the show. This is the Wednesday edition. We're recording this on Tuesday afternoon, so there will

certainly be some big Aaron Rodgers rumor tonight. It won't be on the show that you hear. It'll be Tuesday night. It won't be on the Wednesday show. hear or you it'll be tuesday night you won't be on the wednesday show heath good day did you guys see the picture um because chris brought it up and i had never seen it before like the side by side chris had posted i think of me and aaron rogers at one point the picture of him today in the sunglasses forget the sunglasses no you guys are turning into one another i had multiple people tag me in that and say heath's playing quarterback for the packers absolutely yeah yeah you guys have

have turned into the same person i assume that means that i'm getting better looking and he's getting worse looking but sorry aaron yeah you could both be getting worse looking. And you could just be meeting somewhere. Yeah, I think my worst look was 12 through 25, probably. Well, I'd love to see some pictures, by the way. If anybody saw Fear Street on Netflix in the third installment, the character Solomon Fear, he looks exactly like Aaron Rodgers. It was really weird. And if Schrager were here,

I would have him bring up a picture for the YouTube audience. Let's get into our favorite stats. I recommend Fear Street. It was fun. It was campy, but it was fun. Favorite stats. Chris, you want to lead us off? What do you got?

Oh, gosh. I wasn't ready for this. I've got it. I've got one. Okay. Chrisris is up here's a big one uh ben roethlisberger averaged 2.17 seconds per pass attempt uh last season from snap of the ball to his pass attempts or sack it or getting sacked or breaking the pocket uh the number two quarterback averaged 2.38 seconds he held onto the ball he released the ball within 2.5 seconds 73 percent of the time on his drop backs the league average was 49 percent so Ben Roethlisberger last year basically the first goal for the Pittsburgh Steelers was to get the ball

out regardless of whether it was a great play or like he was just watching it it almost seemed like he didn't want to get sacked so badly that that was like how they had to set up their offense and you know you saw that in the offense that they ran I think you know he sent in a stat that I don't know if he's going to to say on the show so I'll just throw it out here Deontay Johnson since entering the league ranks 52nd'll just throw it out here. Deontay Johnson, since entering the league, ranks 52nd in yards per reception at 10.9 and 55th in yards per target at 6.8. Only Zay Jones and DeeDee Westbrook have been worse among wide receivers. I assume that's 100 targets or something. 230 since 2017. Okay. That's really bad. I don't know if that's a Deontay Johnson stat or if that's a Ben Roethlisberger stat. Well, let's not forget Deontay Johnson's first season, Ben Roethlisberger barely played.

Right. So it's a Ben Roethlisberger plus the garbage they had in... Mason Rudolph? What was the other guy's name that came in for Mason Rudolph? Duck. Duck. Yeah, Duck Hodges. Duck Hodges. Duck Hodges. Yeah.

No, but you make a good point, Chris, with the release point thing, is that I don't know how to evaluate the Steelers wide receivers. I just feel like things are going to be so different this year. New offensive coordinator, pretty much a completely new offensive line. Yikes. New running back in tow. So how do you take 2020 and apply it to 2021 it's one of the most difficult offenses to do that with i think

because this is i believe the first time that ben roethlisberger has learned a brand new offense which last year tom brady did that it wasn't a big deal uh but there's been so much stability throughout his career and he's talked about how but there's been so much stability throughout his career. And he's talked about how tough that's been. You know, in reporting to camp last week, he talked about, you know, it's a lot different. I've had to learn a lot of new things. Adam left.

Yeah. I just fixed something. Talk on it. And I don't know what to make of them. You know, they're talking about this this is going to be a really different offense i saw a note uh from one of the beat writers about i think it was a a screen pass that deontay johnson took 70 yards and that was a you know one of the things they talked about was how they're going to incorporate more you know screen passes into

the game more of ben roethlisberger under center rather than out of the shotgun, more play action, which is something they really haven't done over the last couple of seasons, which is all to say that there's a lot of uncertainty around the Steelers offense. That doesn't mean the Steelers offense is going to be bad, but uncertainty is almost worse than knowing the team is going to be bad. Because I think this team could go in a lot of different directions. It could be an awesome offense.

How confident are you? You both have Deontay Johnson as the top Steelers wide receiver in your rankings? Barely, yeah. Okay, so how confident are you that your ranking of the Steelers wide receivers is accurate?

Zero. I'm actually pretty confident in that part. how confident are you that your ranking of the Steelers wide receivers is accurate? Zero. Um, I'm actually pretty confident in that part. I, I, I'm, I'm very confident Deontay Johnson will lead the Steelers in targets when he's healthy.

Okay. That's the part I'm confident in. Last year in terms of fantasy points per game, it was really, really close between Deontay and Juju, right? Yeah. Juju actually ahead of him in one format?

You know what I'm going to say, right? What? Didn't Deontay Johnson leave two games early with injuries? It was 14.9 for Deontay, 14.6 for Juju. But Deontay did leave two games with injuries.

He was benched in another. He had so many more targets than everybody else when he was on the field healthy. Okay, let's move on to our next thing here. It's Heath's favorite stat. Heath, go! I really want you guys to help me work through this because I kind of brought up earlier in the offseason

with Patrick Mahomes. And we have decided this year that Travis Kelsey, I think rightly, is worth a first-round pick. And in most industry drafts, Patrick Mahomes still goes at the end of the third round, maybe even early in the fourth. There are people who have Patrick Mahomes not ranked as the number one quarterback in fantasy going into this year. Not at CBS, I don't think, but in other places. The difference between Patrick Mahomes and the number two quarterback was over the past three years on a per-game basis,

2.58. Now, that's kind of not accurate because the number two quarterback on a per-game basis is Justin Herbert, who's only played one game. If you're talking about quarterbacks who have had one season, if you're talking about quarterbacks who have actually played each of the last three seasons, he has been 3.93 fantasy points better than any other quarterback.

Russell Wilson is number two. Travis Kelsey over the past three seasons is 2.41 fantasy points better than George Kittle 3.65 better than Darren Waller. Who's number three. It's true that quarterback still really deep. And this top tier has developed with Kyler and Dak and Lamar, and they have enormous upside and, and Josh Allen, they've shown it over one year.

Each of them, Dak, maybe even a year, not really even a year and a half because his really good year wasn't the 30 points per game that we've seen out of Allen, Rogers, Mahomes, Lamar. But when you look at the past three years, which I think most of us agree, the larger sample size is more predictive.

Mahomes has been a lot better, like 10% better than any other quarterback. I have a lot to say. Chris, I'll let you respond first. And he's not been elevated really and an expert 80 in expert rankings overall i think one thing that's happening is um what i would say is a pretty classic cognitive bias on the part of the fantasy industry that we're all prone to which is recency bias last Last season was an historic season for offense.

And quarterback scoring, especially among the top, it was like 11 or 12, was just so much higher than one it normally ever is and to the rest of the field. The top six, top 12, however you want to define the top tier of quarterbacks, dominated in a way that is unusual it was something like 55 of all top 12 qb weeks last season came from top 12 finishers at quarterback which is an unusually high number it's usually closer to 40 if i'm remembering correctly is that a new normal or was it that just like in the 2011 lockout season,

which also saw historic passing numbers, was this the result of defenses being behind offenses, at least for the start of the season? My guess is it's probably the former. The other thing is... Your guess is the... What was the former? That it's the new normal?

The former is the new normal. Sorry, sorry, sorry. The latter. That it was a fluke that the's the new normal? The former is the new normal. Sorry, sorry, sorry, the latter. Okay, yeah. That it was a fluke that the dominant quarterbacks aren't going to be quite as dominant. I would expect regression across the board. Mahomes is probably the one you'd expect the least amount of regression from because he was the one who didn't really seem to get a huge boost.

You know, a lot of guys had their best season ever last season. Patrick Mahomes didn't. 2019 or 2018 was his best season. So I do. Yeah. I think Patrick Holmes is, is the clear number one quarterback, whether he should be a second round pick.

If you do it like Heath, you know, I know you can sort your ranking, your projections, at least by replacement level points above replacement. He is a first-round pick. Depending on where you set the replacement level, I did this exercise yesterday.

You can get Patrick Mahomes into top 15 range. I used an old Joe Bryant article. Joe Bryant runs Football Guys, which is where I was before the CBS. It was about on value-based drafting. He, I believe where I was before the CBS. And, and he, it was about on value-based drafting and he, I believe came up with the concept. Um, and what they would use as the baseline was the top 100 picks. How many players at each position are going in the top 100 picks. That is your baseline for production.

However much better each player is at their position than that number. In this instance, I believe there's currently 13 quarterbacks going in the top 100 picks by the ADP I used. However much better Mahomes is than the 13th quarterback compared to how much better McCaffrey is than the 38th running back. And the 41st wide receiver and I think the 7th tight end were the measurements. Using that methodology, I have Mahomes at the seventh pick. Now, I'm not going to rank him at the seventh pick. I'm not going to take him at the seventh pick, but I'm going to take him in the second round more often.

Wait, can we talk more about this? One question I do have, though. What was Patrick Mahomes' average over the last three seasons? 28.9. So, it is worth noting he's only 1.6 points better than lamar jackson as a starter lamar jackson's been at 27.3 if you only count the games he started in 2018 because he appeared in 18 16 games but he only started seven so you know that gap does shrink but that's also potentially a lamar jack Jackson stat that maybe it's just the two of

them should be separated from the pack. We will talk about value-based drafting. I think we've probably spent a lot of time on that. No, my, my thing with that stat is that, yeah, three years ago, my homes was so much better than everyone, but two years ago, he wasn't, he wasn't even a top five quarterback. And last year he was basically right in the mix with you know alan prescott rogers as depending on which site you're looking at any of them could have finished his qb1 per game but he wasn't head and shoulders above everybody last year and he wasn't in 2019 so i just think it's waiting his 2018 season which is probably never going to repeat at least, you know, per game now with 17 games, it might be different, but I, that's my issue is that I feel like it just waits

2018 and, and yeah, the difference between him and Kelsey is the depth of the quarterback position. Yeah. I just don't, I, the depth of the quarterback position, it's easy to draft a late. We talked about this yesterday. It's very easy at quarterback to draft a late we talked about this yesterday it's very easy at quarterback to draft a low-end starter you don't have to draft one until the last round you can draft somebody that gives you low-end starter production yeah if you're looking for what the top three or four guys are going to give you quarterbacks not very deep quarterbacks not very deep i think it's either five or six deep. You can make a case for other guys. You can make a case for... I can make a case for 13 guys.

For what? 13 guys. Actually, I don't think I can make that case for Stafford. I can make a case for, I think, 12. I think. Obviously, to be not Mahomes, but to be amazing.

I love quarterback this year. Maybe it is recency bias. Maybe I'm just basing it on last year, but man, I love Burrow. And he's quarterback 13. I love Brady and he's quarterback 10, something like that. One thing you said, and I wonder what the best or best two seasons of brady's career on a

per game basis all right because it's so interesting like what no but when he was so good for fantasy purposes like as a top five quarterback i i wonder what he was scoring who um sorry i'll look that up real quick brady but um one interesting thing you said and i think it's probably true that mahomes is not likely to repeat 2018 on a per game basis. It was two points better than what Allen or anybody did last year. And Allen, I think those guys are no more likely to repeat their career from last year. So let me just clarify. I, I absolutely think Mahomes, everybody thinks Mahomes should be the number one quarterback. And it's just, I just don't think he should be a first round pick. I don't think you do either. No, I think I'm taking him in round two. You are. Okay. Yeah. I mean, look, most of us say round three, round three, we've been saying that. We said that last year. We probably said that the year before. I don't know. But I remember Jamie, you know, Jamie's always

like, no, Mahomes late round three. But I looked at the Fantasy Football Today League, which he won. He didn't have the best team, but he did win it. Dave had the best team and lost in the finals to Jamie. He had the first pick. He took McCaffrey with the first pick. I don't remember who he took in 24. He took Mahomes at 25. So he knew he wasn't getting Mahomes with his fourth and fifth picks.

So he went a little earlier because I think he knew the value of having McCaffrey in his mind and Mahomes. Yeah. All right. So round two for Heath. Chris, when would you take Mahomes? Third. And, you know, I think you can start in the early third. So if you want to say late second, that's fine. You want to talk about a quarterback who might have been worth a first round pick in 2007. Tom Brady averaged 30.6 fantasy points per game. Four quarterbacks averaged more than 20.

He was basically twice as good as the number 12 quarterback that season. It was Jay Cutler with 15.6. That was quite a year. All right, so good stuff there. I do think that we have to talk about value-based drafting. It hasn't come up enough on this show, and we'll get into it. We have our draft-a-thon supporting St. Jude. It's going to be on September 1st,

and we cannot wait. That's going to be six straight hours of live fantasy football coverage. We'll give you more details as we get closer, but we're going to be auctioning off a whole bunch of great stuff, and all of the proceeds are going to St. Jude. So we want you to be a part of this. We want you, obviously, to bid on things and to help us raise money, but also, if you have any ideas on what you would like to see up for auction,

for example, we're going to be giving away spots in next year's Scott Fishbowl. What do you want to see offered to incentivize donations to St. Jude? You can leave your ideas on this YouTube video. You can tweet at us or you can send an email to fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Fantasyfootballatcbsi.com fantasyfootballatcbsi.com that is the letter I. Email of the day comes from Jared from Atlanta.

Could y'all discuss how you approach how your approach may differ or stay the same with half PPR compared to non-PPR or full PPR? Thanks and good luck with the podcast awards. Well, thank you. You have a few days left to vote for us. PodcastAwards.com. It'd be a little unfair if it was a CBS Sports URL, right?

PodcastAwards.com slash app slash sign up. Please go there and nominate fantasy football today in the sports category. So this is another question that we get a lot. What rankings do you use for half PPR? How do you change your strategy for half PPR? Heath, what's your answer? So we're not talking about non-PPR. Just half PPR? How do you change your strategy for half PPR? Heath, what's your answer? We're not talking about non-PPR. Just half PPR.

I say the answer that question is about half PPR, but if you want to compare it to how you would go half or half full. What I would say is all the things that I say about running back and not having to take one in the first couple of rounds in full PPR,

you can just throw that away in non-ppr and non-ppr probably 14 to the top 16 picks or something should be running backs um there's a reason that we came up with the idea of ppr it's because as the kids say running back was too op uh half ppr mitigates that just a little bit chris is just i can i can tell heath has a son who plays first person shooters yes yes um very good at it too he has an instagram with more followers than i do on instagram but anyway like half ppr i generally use PPR rankings. I downgrade the low ADOT wide receivers a little bit from where they are in the PPR rankings. I downgrade the pass catching running backs quite a bit from where they are in the rankings. But other than that, I pretty much just use PPR rankings. And by that, you mean the running backs who primarily derive their value from pass catching.

Not necessarily. Christian McCaffrey should still be the number one pick. But, but Eckler is a one that even though he's a first round pick, he's not as valuable in half PPR as he is in full. Yeah. Yeah. I think that the broader question would be, what do you do with your first two picks?

What do you do with your first four picks? You know, I don't know what everybody else is going to do. Well, okay. But in non-PPR, especially if you have a late pick, your first two picks, very good chance you're going to be running back, running back. In full PPR, not a ton of people are going to go running back, running back, I feel. Maybe two or three out of 12.

Personally, I go a little more running back heavy in half PPR, but I did some numbers crunching. Chris, I'll let you answer, and then I'll kind of contribute with what we've seen over the last few years. The one thing I would say is the reason you want to take multiple running backs early in non-PPR is one, they're going to score more than the wide receivers. Wide receivers are penalized more, generally speaking, in non-PPR.

But it's also because running back gets a lot shallower, a lot quicker in non-PPR because all of a sudden you really can only rely on those workhorse-type running backs. Yeah, Josh Jacobs gets a boost and then a couple of their uh lower end guys but you know you look at some of the rb2 slash rb3 types that i i like to take when if i'm going zero rb and you talk about chase edmunds and you know maybe raheem mostert you know those guys it's a little harder to rely on them when you can't rely on the volume of, you know, the guys who are going to get 15 carries per game. So I think running back also does run out quicker in non PPR.

But we're talking about half PPR. Right. Good point. Half PPR is half of that. I, I, I tend to look at half PPR. I don't change my view much from PPR is half of that. I tend to look at half PPR. I don't change my view much from PPR. I think it depends more on how many positions I have to fill.

I think it's such a perfect format. I just feel like we all should play half PPR and only half PPR. I'm sorry. It's just non-PPR is just the running back. Oh, non-PPR is bad. Yeah, non-PPR is useless. Full PPR, I shouldn't say that. A lot of people play non-PPR. I have. Non-PPR is bad. Yeah, non-PPR is useless. Full PPR, I shouldn't say

that. A lot of people play non-PPR. I have a non-PPR league. It's still fantasy football. Do you know what a lot of people don't play? Half.

Half PPR. Maybe on CBS. The one you always want to talk about. No, that's not true because away from CBS, that is not true. I'd love to know on

non-CBS sites what the preferred format is. I think ESPN, it's full PPR. Wow. I just think it should be half. Like, it's just... It just should. I looked at, you know, over the last few years,

comparing RB12 to wide receiver 12. And it's a blowout in non-PPR for the running backs. And it's a blowout in full PPR for the wide receivers. And it's pretty damn close in half PPR. Same with RB18 versus wide receiver 18. It's pretty close in half PPR, a slight edge to wide receiver. But one thing I did notice,

and this I think is relevant for you on draft day, if you have a late pick, let's compare over the last five seasons, RB10 to wide receiver five. Because with your second pick, maybe you have the 14th overall pick, okay? And you're thinking Mixon, Najee Harris, Gibson, or Hopkins, Diggs, Ridley, take the wide receiver. If you already took a wide receiver, that's another thing. But it's likely, very likely that the number five wide receiver is going to outscore the number 10 running back and potentially crush the number 10 running back, even in half PPR.

Now, the counter to that is over the last five years, the number 10 running back one year, it was Todd Gurley and he was RB one. One year it was Christian McCaffrey, just looking at recent ADP on Fantasy Football Calculator, and he was RB1 or 2 in 2018. One year it was LeSean McCoy, and he was RB3 or 4. Kareem Hunt. So you can hit bigger on running backs in that range.

But if you don't think that your running back has that possibility to have that explosion year, I feel pretty safe saying that Stephon Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins are probably going to do better than the running backs in that range so and i keep that that's pretty much true outside of the

first two rounds uh at least in ppr the running backs are always going to have more upside if they hit their 90th percentile but the 50th percentile for wide receivers is much much higher than for running backs once you get outside of the top two rounds, really. And Adam, you were right. There are sites. Yahoo is half PPR standard. Okay, I am going to put a note here in my show. Edit at about 23 minutes and 30 seconds.

Adam, you were right. And I'm just going to clip that. I'm just going to play that a lot. All right, let's move on. We got a lot of news and notes and more stats to get to here. Here are your news items. Aaron Rodgers reported to training camp. We'll keep an eye on this. Hopefully some deal is signed soon and we can talk about the fantasy impact. Jimmy Garoppolo is the starter with no open competition, according to the head coach, Kyle Shanahan. So in your mind, Trey Lance,

when do you think he'll become the quarterback? Never? What do you think? That's kind of the problem is like, Garoppolo, it's sort of Ryan Fitzpatrick last year, where it's like, he's probably good enough

that he shouldn't lose the job. Like there's not, there's probably not going to be a point where Jimmy Garoppolo has five interceptions in six quarters and has to get benched. He's probably just going to be good enough because this offense is so efficient and they're so

good at generating yards. I think the bye week is always a decent place to peg an over-under, but I wouldn't feel confident in it. Yeah, and the other thing is it's a little bit different. And going back to what Chris said, it's tough to guess on this because Ryan Fitzpatrick really shouldn't have lost his job.

They were a competitive football team that was worse with Tua and had to bring Fitzpatrick out in relief multiple times. The 49ers start off with the Lions and Eagles. Then they get the Packers and Seahawks. I think they're probably a playoff team unless

they have a ton of injuries like they did last year and their schedule doesn't look particularly tough. It's either the bye or an injury for me. Yeah. Like they go 0-3 against the Packers. Yeah, falling out of playoff consideration. Yeah.

Okay, the Giants are thinking long-term with Saquon Barkley. So we know he's on the pup list. It's all very vague right now. How much longer until everyone joins me on second round? Saquon. I think he probably should be there. There was a, like it's him and Joe judge in that,

uh, what I miss second round. Saquon. I just thought it was really funny. Uh, him, Joe, Joe judge and Saquon Barkley have both been super non-committal

about like even week one there in that interview that that um i can't remember the the espn beat writer for for the giants was it yeah um he spoke to joe judge and joe judge was like yeah we it was basically like we don't we're not going to put a, yes, he's going to be ready for week one. I assume he will be. But that's starting to get into the territory where you have to be concerned. And it's starting to get into the territory where Devante Booker needs to be drafted in every league. Dave has almost joined me.

Dave has Saquon 12th now. So he is one player away from second round Saquon. Jamie has dropped him to eighth. So he's moving that direction as well. Swing pick Saquon. Swing pick Saquon. That's the thing. Even if you drop him to 15, that's basically the first

round. Right, Adam? Pretty much. There are 15 players that are first round caliber. Then yeah, basically. Alright, listen. Let's go real fast here. Then, yeah, basically. All right, listen. Let's go real fast here. Heath, I'm just going to give you the news and notes. You give me a quick reaction. The Saints signed Chris Hogan.

Remember when I made the Chris Hogan Chick-fil-A joke? No, I don't. But now I'm interested. He used to be, his nickname was 7-Eleven because he was always open. And I said, yeah. He used to be, his nickname was 7-11 because he was always open. That's outstanding. All right.

Washington side, Logan Thomas, three-year, 24-minute contract extension, $10.3 billion guaranteed. Heath? We're maybe sleeping on him. Okay. Odell Beckham passes physical. He is not on the PUP list. That's good. I still

don't want to draft him as a number three receiver, really. Cortland Sutton was cleared for camp. Not on the PUP list, but he's going to have his workload managed. Who would you rather have, Sutton or Beckham? Sutton. Rams receiver Tutu Atwell on the reserve PUP list. Or no, he's on the reserve COVID list. Sorry, he's on the reserve COVID list sorry he's on the reserve COVID list so hopefully

he is off of that soon Chandler Jones reported to camp good news for the Cardinals maybe he just doesn't want to get fined Matt Nagy said that 20 carries per week for David Montgomery is very doable Chris do you think that's very doable this is no he's not going to run the ball 340 times this season

he's not he's not Derek Henry but 20 carries in any given week is certainly very doable. Yeah, that is true. Matt Nagy said he's really impressed with Justin Fields. All right, we'll track that. Washington signed defensive tackle Jared Allen to a four-year $72 million extension. Joe Burrow probably won't play in the preseason.

And it was revealed today or yesterday that 10 women have filed criminal complaints against Deshaun Watson. Eight of those 10 have also filed civil suits. I want to hear more of your favorite stats. I'm going to ask you guys to do it a little bit quicker than we did it before just so we have time for all of them.

Chris, the floor is yours. Your first stat was about Ben Roethlisberger getting rid of the ball super, super quickly. What do you got? What else you got? So this is a hat tip to J.J. Zacharias, and he was tweeting about the ambiguous RB1 theory, I think is what he termed it,

and he was basically talking about how the best values among later RBs outside of the best values in at among like later rbs outside of like the top five rounds is um running backs who are projected to be their lead back but there's not like clarity on it they have a higher chance of breaking out than say handcuffs for instance um and the stat was from 2011 through 2020 among 39 running backs picked after the fifth round who outperformed their ADP by 100 points. So this was his way of determining a breakout. Only six of the 39 running backs had a running back teammate who was drafted in the top 24 or the first two rounds of a 12 team draft. Just three players, James Connor in 2018, D'Angelo Williams in 2015, and Fred Jackson in 2013, had a running back teammate select in the first round of fantasy drafts.

And so... Hold on. Let's do it again. It's a lot of information. Yeah. Hit me with it again. So basically, among running backs

who broke out who were drafted outside of the top five rounds, only 15% of them were handcuffs. Had a... Were high-end handcuffs. Were guys... guys drafted on teams

that had a running back draft in the top 24. Which makes sense. It's really hard to break out if a guy who's being drafted in the top 24 is on your team. But it's also worth noting that a lot of the breakout running backs in that category

weren't necessarily the guys who their team, you know, viewed as, or, or at least who we viewed as the number two running back. You know, that happens a lot where we, we try to say,

Oh, last year, Joshua Kelly, man, if anything happens to Austin Ackler, Joshua Kelly could be a league winner. And then it turns out Joshua Kelly was so bad that he eventually was losing playing time to Kalen Balazs.

Well, I hate to say, but that's kind of how I feel about Devontae Booker. Um, that's fair. That's fair. I think Devontae Booker's good enough, but you know, that's totally fair. So, getting back to what you were

talking about here, who are the running backs that would fit this category of likely breakouts after round five? Oh, that? I don't know. That's a much tougher question. That don't have a teammate being drafted to the top 24 and could carry the... So like a Michael Carter.

Outside of what round? Top five rounds. So I think like Myles Gaskin, Chase Edmonds, Melvin Gordon possibly, Javante Williams, possibly those guys. But I think the bigger takeaway was for me, at least was handcuffs are overrated and you should not make handcuffs a priority on your draft. If you want to, if you, I mean, just look how, how little Alexander Madison has given us over the last, what is it? Three years now that we've been waiting, uh,

targeting him as like a ninth round handcuff. Yeah. Two years. Um, it's just, it's usually not a very productive strategy. It almost never actually works out the way we think it will. Uh,

too much can go wrong. Alexander Madison, the one time he finally got an opportunity in 2018, uh, it was the Mike Boone show, right? He got hurt. Because he got hurt.

Last year he took over during the Seattle game, and then he was horrible, and he was great. He had like 100 yards and a half or something, I don't remember. And then the next week against Atlanta, he stunk. But then, if I recall, week 17, he was awesome. But you're right. You wait and you wait. You may have dropped the guy before you can use him

because he's going to be one of your most useless players and injuries come about and you have to make changes. All right, good stuff there. Heath, your next stat. First off, we've got a correction from earlier because I was stumped and just been researching for the last five minutes. Jared Allen is not playing for the Washington football team. I almost corrected you and said Larry Allen, but he's not a defensive tackle.

He was an offensive tackle. It was Jonathan Allen. Jonathan Allen. Jared Allen sounded wrong. And also in relationship to the Washington football team, I just want to say they're doing a worse job than you did because Ron Rivera is having a press conference and talking about how, as a cancer survivor, he is fearful because his team is only 60% vaccinated. Worse job than I did?

I'm saying the Washington football team needs to get their act together, the players. Oh, yeah. Yeah, come on. Yes. But I don't want to get into that because. The players. Oh yeah. Yeah. Come on. Yes. But I don't want to get into that because I don't want people to hate me, but do I now have to edit? Do I now have to cut the clip of you telling me I was wrong to go with you

telling me I was right? A lot of editing today. You'd like my second stat now. And Chris teased it. And it was, he gave the Deontay Johnson end of the stat, but the actual stat was a mike williams stat since he came into league in 2017 57 wide receivers have at least 230 targets

williams ranks second in yards per reception at 16.7 sixth in yards per target at 9.5 Kenny Galladay is the only wide receiver ahead of him in both it it Williams is like a really hard player to describe his career because it feels like he's been a bust as a first round wide receiver he also has a thousand yard season and a 10 touchdown season there's been a lot of talk this preseason about how they're going to throw him the ball. And to clarify, if they throw him the ball more, those numbers that I just cited will probably go down a little bit. Volume generally leads to a normalization of efficiency. But he's not been bad. It's just that he's been on a team that has thrown 50 of their passes to running backs

and keenan allen and he's gotten hurt a lot you know he hasn't actually missed that many games the last couple of seasons but last season especially there was always something you know i think it was a a hamstring injury early on i want to say there was a back also that you know made him really tough to trust i i was very mad when you took him yesterday in our pick-by-pick because I had circled him two rounds earlier as a key part of my strategy for one of my teams, and you took him literally the pick ahead of me. I think he's going to be awesome this year.

He's one of my absolute favorite sleepers at wide receiver. Okay, would you take him over Michael Pittman or T.Y. Hilton? I think that's probably the range I have them ranked in, but I'm more excited about getting Williams. Oh, yeah. Your team, sometimes during our Twitch drafts, I just try to draft the team that the crowd's going to like so I can be popular.

And people are going to be much more excited about your team if you've drafted Mike Williams than if you've drafted T.Y. Hilton. I do have him ahead of Hilton and Pittman. Wide receiver 39, right in front of Jalen Waddell. Yeah, I have him at 44. That's why I got him and Chris didn't. There you go.

All right, we're going to take a quick break here. When we come back, you guys be ready. More stats coming up right after this on Fantasy Football Today. Did you know 66% of utility damage is caused by not requesting a locate? Don't let your project become part of this statistic. A quick locate request can save you from unexpected downtime, financial penalties, and keep you safe. Don't let avoidable damage cost you time and money.

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I don't know if they're actually our favorite, but they're among our favorites. They're like children. We love them all. Heath, you're up. All right. DeAndre Swift's stat is what I'm going to give now. He averaged 20.4 PPR fantasy points per game, which would have tied him, I believe,

with Derrick Henry for RB4 last year in the five games that he received at least 15 touches. Anthony Lynn's running backs over the past five years, the number one running back has averaged about 17 touches per game. The number two running back has averaged about 12 touches per game. So that's why when we talk so much about this committee on the Lions, I don't really want to discount DeAndre Swift for that. Of course, Anthony Lynn's going to have a committee. He's always

had a committee. And for most of the past few years, he's also had two fantasy-relevant running backs. I think Swift and Jamal Williams can both be relevant. And Swift can be a breakout, and Williams can be a sleeper. Okay. Chris, you're up.

Oh, I was going to... I wanted to look something up, but that's fine. My favorite stat, one I've cited quite a bit is just running back points on various teams over the last three seasons. Buffalo being dead last in the NFL, they've averaged 279.8 PPR points per game over the last three seasons by their running backs. That is 22 points worse than Houston. Who's number two, Arizona's number three, the jets are fourth and Jacksonville's fifth. Now,

you know, obviously there's changes in coaching staff in three of those five spots, but I think the, the real takeaway for me is, I mean, nobody really wants any Houston running backs, but Buffalo, there's this continued interest in zach moss at breakout

candidate and he's you know he's so elusive and devin singletary was the guy like that the year before that we were all excited about and i think the thing that i just take away from it is just i'm not excited about either of them this is a bad bad situation for running backs it's arguably the worst in the nfl and um like they haven't topped 300 points as a team for the running backs over the last three seasons in any of them. That's really, really bad. So I just, I don't think there's really any upside

for Moss or Singletary unless they somehow, one of them gets 80% of the touches, which seems almost impossible. I can see, I do like Moss. I just don't think, you know, I'm not drafting him with any illusions that he could be a must start, really, that he could be a top 15 running back

or anything like that. But I do think that he could get 70% of the touches. You know, it was starting to trend that way. Down the stretch, he was getting a lot more touches. And then in the playoffs, you know, um, it was starting to trend that way down the stretch. He was getting a lot more touches. And then in the playoffs before he got hurt, he was getting a lot more touches. Uh,

so I'm interested to see what the camp buzz is. It's setting up to be all about Zach Moss, but we'll see if Devin Singletary can fend him off. Uh, the other, the other issue, the big issue for Moss is that he's, you know,

injury, he got hurt twice. You know, he got hurt in the playoffs and he, he got hurt in the first issue for Moss is that he's, you know, injury. He got hurt twice. You know, he got hurt in the playoffs, and he got hurt in the first round of the playoffs, and he was immediately declared out for the rest of the postseason. So it was a pretty serious injury. So if he stays healthy, I think he can take over. And the only thing that really needs to change for them to become start-worthy is they need to get more rushing touchdowns.

And they've had their opportunities. They've just stunk the last two years with Gore and Moss, really. You know, Allen's been so much better near the goal line but if that can change and you can change then everybody can change uh you know for me part of it is rocky four you know if you can get them late enough and devin singletary you usually can get in like the ninth or tenth round in which case it's fine. But if a running, sure. If a running back doesn't have at least some kind of realistic path to a top 15 season, he doesn't really have much value. I'm not going to say he doesn't belong on your roster, but that's an injury replacement at best.

If you're hoping that like things break right for Zach Moss and he finishes 18th at running back, I don't really... There are guys I'd rather just take a flyer on. Oh, like a handcuff? Sure. No, no, we just said... I mean, Zach Moss is Josh Allen's handcuff, right? I think if everything goes right with your team,

that's probably right what you said. No, but I mean for Zach Moss. No, but if everything goes right with your team, that's probably right what you said. No, but I mean for Zach Moss. No, but if everything goes right for your fantasy team, then Zach Moss is probably not going to really make a big impact. But I just feel like throughout the course of the season with injuries, with bye weeks, there's a role for a top 18 for the 20th best running back. This is going to be frustrating for me to ask this but i just don't know why we

think zach moss has a chance to improve but devin singletary doesn't okay so for me it was better okay for me it's what i said because i i understand why you're asking that it's the fact that they seem to be going away from Singletary and favoring Moss down the stretch and in the playoffs and just one or two beat reporter notes favoring Zach Moss. It just feels like the momentum is there. That's it for me.

And I just want to clarify, they are the same age. Like three months apart or something. Singletary has shown us more good things in his career. And the playoff, I am always hesitant with the last four games of a season argument.

The playoffs argument is literally seven carries and four targets for Zach Moss in the playoffs. But why was he getting all of that work and Devin Singletary wasn't? All of that work, we're talking about like a quarter and a half. Okay, you have 11 touches for Moss,

and Singletary had three at that point in the game. Singletary had three and Moss had 11. That, to me, says that, and that was a continuation of a pattern after week 13. So Moss had 41 carries to 28 in the last four regular season games. So he just seemed like he seized the momentum at the end of the year.

Right, but he had 38 carries in the three full games that he played, basically. He didn't play week 17. He barely played. But 14 through 16, he had 38 carries and two targets. So yeah, he could get 65% of the work in Buffalo. I just don't think that matters, especially if it's not going to be passing downs work.

What's a realistic upside scenario for Zach Moss? Touchdowns. 950 yards and 7-8 touchdowns? Damian Harris. You're banking on the Bills offense producing points for him. I want to clarify. I don't think Zach Moss has as much upside as Damian Harris. I think Zach Moss's upside is what Damian Harris was last year.

I just kind of think his best case scenario is like the last David Johnson season before he got hurt in Arizona that 2018 where he rushed for 940 yards and seven touchdowns like I just I don't know I just I can't see it's really hard to see a path unless Zach Moss gets just a much bigger passing game workload than he than he had at any point last season that's really what it comes down to is I just can't see a path to him being much better than a low-end, fine starter. Well, it's actually an interesting comparison. He's going 96th overall.

Two running backs later, six picks later is David Johnson. Who would you rather have? David Johnson. Yeah. Yeah, David Johnson was like... And I think the reason nobody argues for it or makes the point is because nobody wants to be like saying David Johnson's going to be good this year.

He's not going to be good. But David Johnson was like be good this year. He's not going to be good. But David Johnson was actually good last year for fantasy. Yeah. He had multiple really good games. True or false. Better than 12 games. Buy or sell, or true or false, whichever game you want to play. David Johnson, 103rd overall, is one of the best bargains in fantasy.

Nobody wants to say that, Adam. Well, it's kind of the same thing as zach moss though where like yeah he can be an rb2 and at 103rd overall you whatever who cares and he's much more likely to be an rb2 than zach moss's right yeah but yeah i i just for, it's... He's a zero RB target for me. So if I'm just getting to that point where I'm like, I need a body at running back for at least the start of the season, he's someone I'm fine with. Not so much Zach Moss.

Let's crush some emails here to finish the show. This one's from Aaron. Subject line, I would smoke Heath in a barbecue competition. Okay. Would he taste good? Dear Tony, Pauly, and Christopher. Yep. Sopranos.

10 team, half PPR, Keeper League. He wrote Keeper League twice. So maybe it's two keepers. I currently have Miles Sanders at round four. Tyler Lockett at round 15. I need to keep two players of the following. One for two years and the other for three years. So McLaurin round three.

Gibson round eight. Akers round 12. Gaskin round 12. James Robinson, TJ Hawkinson, Noah Fant all round 12. So pick two of them. One you can keep for two years, one for three years. McLaurin in round three. Gibson in round eight. And then Akers, Gaskin, James Robinson, Hawkinson, and Fant in round 12. So pick two of them. One you can keep for two years, one for three years. McLaurin in round three, Gibson in round eight,

and then Akers, Gaskin, James Robinson, Hawkinson, and Fant in round 12. Gibson in round eight and Hawkinson in round 12, and I would give the three years to Gibson. Yeah, that's probably right. I just I don't

obviously Hawkinson's a much better deal than McLaurin I just because you're not keeping anybody in round one or round two I almost just want to take the much much better player but that's fair I think the value is definitely Gibson

and Hawkinson it is a 10 team league so McLaurin in round three. Yeah. It's a little bit of a reach. I guess not when you factor in the keepers, but yeah, it's not like great value. Okay, and from Shane, you are my number one podcast. So, of course, I had to nominate you for the Fantasy Football Today.

I had to nominate Fantasy Football Today in the sports category on Podcast Awards. Woo! Yeah! Round of applause. Where's my applause? Hey! Thank you. Okay. Shane's question. 14-team PPR league. We start three

wide receiver slash tight ends. We do not have to start any tight ends. They don't want to, but how do you rate the top six tight ends in comparison to the wide receivers in that range? So it's PPR. I have the top three tight ends

right around low-end wide receiver one to mid-range wide receiver two projected points. So they're really good. You should start them. You should draft them and start them. After that, they're more like low end wide receiver threes.

And I'm not sure TJ Hawkinson has more upside than Jerry Judy to name a guy who's being drafted as a low-end wide receiver three. So I would have very little interest in them. I've got it right here, so I can just run through. I would have Kelsey at wide receiver five. I would have Waller at wide receiver 17.

In between who and who, or whom and whom Kelsey is um Diggs and Ridley um Waller and Kittle I believe are together um between DJ Moore and Amari Cooper that's pretty much exactly where where I have them it's between AJ Brown and Allen Robinson at seven for Kelsey. Might be more... Yeah, like between Julio Jones and Tyler Lockett. Allen Robinson, wide receiver, seven. Yeah, I've come around.

Ooh, boy. Glad Chris wasn't on the show yesterday. It would have been a long, long debate. Speaking of that, we had breaking news earlier in the show. Also, Blake Bortles was cut by the Packers because Aaron Rodgers showed up. Oh, that's kind of sad.

Yeah, it is. I hope he finds another job. And then Andrews, I am the Andrews guy, I think. And still, he's wide receiver 32 to 33 between Cortland Sutton and Curtis Samuel. Yeah. And after that, I don't think I have anybody in my top 50 wide

receivers. Hey, listen, folks, if you want to get excited about drafting Kyle Pitts this year, don't know that this is the podcast for you. I think I'm going to have to just manufacture it. I'll be the high person on Kyle Pitts. It's like this. I don't know

how many people in this pod who are listening play fantasy baseball, but it's like Vladimir Guerrero coming into the season person. It's like this. I don't know how many people in this pot and who are listening play fantasy baseball, but it's like Vladimir Guerrero coming into the season where it's like the most likely outcome. The thing that probably will happen is Kyle Pitts is a perfectly fine starting tight end who is not a difference maker. But you're talking about a historic talent and not in like a TJ Hawkinson was the number eight overall pick. Like Kyle Pitts is such a better prospect than basically every tight end since Vernon Davis, at least. That like that 90th percentile outcome is Kittle, Waller, Kelsey. Nobody else at the position can do that.

Yes. And we were low on Vladimir Guerrero. I've got him on a bunch of teams though you do because because what you do is if you play in 10 leagues you gotta draft cow pits somewhere that's exactly what i said i think two shows you have to if you play if you play in one league you probably don't but if you play in 10 you gotta have cow pits somewhere i like the names that he's between so i'm'm just going to say it. I have him at wide receiver 58 between Meikle Hardman and Rashad Beatman.

Please. Absolutely ridiculous. He would be between Michael Pittman and Marvin Jones for me at wide receiver 47. It's not that ridiculous. It's not. You know what? For a second.

Tight end six, sevens, generally in the fifties and wide receiver, I think for a second, I lost, I lost, uh, I lost focus on the game that we're

ranking them as wide receivers. Not, you know, not like overall rankings with position scarcity, but we were getting rid of position scarcity. So not ridiculous.

Adam, you were wrong. All right, we're done everybody. Thanks a lot for listening. Favorite stats, favorite show, good stuff. Coming back at you tomorrow with another episode of Fantasy Football Today. For Chris Towers and Heath Cummings, I'm Adam Azer.

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