Fantasy Football Today - FFT DFS - Super Bowl 58 DFS Plays, Stacks, Ownership AND Props | 2024 Fantasy Football Advice

Episode Date: February 9, 2024

Join our Showdown Slate game! Sia Nejad, Mike McClure and Meg Shoup give you the best showdown slate plays for the Super Bowl! 'Fantasy Football Today DFS' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT DFS team on Twitter: @FFToday, @Mike5754 @SiaNejad Watch FFT DFS on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today DFS on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Could've skipped it, should've skipped it. Skip to the good part and get groceries, meals, and more delivered right to your door on Skip. What's up everybody and welcome to Fantasy Football Today DFS. My name is Sina Jha and I'm joined of course by Mike McCore and Meg Schauff. And Meg and Mike, this is our last show for a little bit. We got the Super Bowl coming up. We don't have much to talk about next week, at least not on this show, right? Meg, let me start with you.

How you doing and how you feeling? Like, I always feel weird when we approach the Super Bowl because I know it signifies the end of something. As much as I'm intrigued by the game, I kind of feel a little, I don't know, melancholy, if you will. Just like not feeling the vibes with one game left. How do you feel? You are, I am in lockstep with you, Sia.

It's very bittersweet for me, the Super Bowl every year, because I have that, I'm so excited for, obviously, you know, the big game and to see who wins and, you know, the excitement of this. But yeah, I'm sad that the season's over. I, you know, I'm a football girl, 365 days a year. So it's hard for me to accept the end of the football season. So yeah, I'm right there with you. Very bittersweet.

Mike, you're in a slightly different boat because your team, again, is in the Super Bowl. But how do you feel about how we set up, you know, this final game of the season? Are you, do you like, when it comes down to the Super Bowl, do you kind of kind of feel like uh like i don't love this or are you just ready to turn the chapter because of course you know we cover all sports so maybe it's just like on to the next yeah for me it's more on to the next you know it is definitely sad and there is that you know month-long period afterwards where it's like okay this kind of sucks not having the NFL on Sundays. But yeah, we cover all the sports, as you know. So golf, and then really you get roll right into March Madness, and then MLB opening day. And then by the middle of the summer, you're like, okay,

we need football back instantly. So yeah, it's just the cycle of the sports here. So I'm excited to have my team in it. Excited for what I think could be a very, very fun game. A very fun game. So we're going to talk about that. By the way, the flow of the show, it's really not going to be super structured. We're going to talk about how we think this game is going to go and how our lineup builds might reflect our thinking of how this game is going to go. Maybe some alternative lineup builds, alternative game scripts. And then we're going to pull up the DraftKings board and just like kind of build a few lineups, put certain people in the captain spot and just see where it goes from there. And we'll talk about a little bit of ownership too, because I think people will want

to know, you know, who the most popular captains are and maybe potentially flex plays and things like that. So Meg, I'm going to start with you here because we talked pre-show about, you know, you were very curious as to what Mike and I might think of some of your lineup builds. And so let me just ask you this, game flow wise, or I should say game script wise, we addressed this a little bit last week, but are there certain game scripts that you have that you think are kind of unconventional that you're going to build around? Or are you kind of going with maybe the conventional like tight game? A lot of the running game is involved. Like what are you leaning towards if you're building a few lineups? Well, I think I have the game script that we

talked about last week of a tight game leaning on the run game. But because of that, I kind of am leaning towards some unconventional builds with kind of fading the quarterbacks and i'm not saying i'm doing a full fade of both quarterbacks but the lineups i like the best as as i've been building is the lineups where i fade both quarterbacks and i lean heavily on the running game either putting pacheco or christian mcafree and the captain and then you know getting those skill guys getting like a butker, like Mike talked about last week. And it allows you to play less thin plays. Because I think if you are jamming one, and I mean, I think two quarterbacks is very difficult,

then you have to really go down to some thin plays that make me uncomfortable. But I'd love to get your guys' feedback on that, because I really like that. And I think overall, the total ownership of fading the quarterbacks could be contrarian, but you know, it obviously makes me, it's a, it's a scary fade for sure. Yeah, Mike, that's interesting because I think a lot of people like to jam in. I mean, you play a lot of showdown and I think a lot of people like to jam in like what, what Meg's calling a thin play, which of course we're talking about a player that's probably not going to get much volume. That's maybe like 2000 or or eight hundred or twenty eight hundred or what have you. And I think, you know, sometimes I think it's OK to do that. And sometimes you do it too much. You get too thin plays in there because you want to jam in poor guys.

So can you just respond to that? Just historically having those thin plays in there? Do you like to maybe just throw one in because because you you really want to have five guys have you ever kind of put two thin plays in there because of you know how how much volume like a christian mccaffrey and isaiah pacheco uh are getting how are you kind of dealing with that with this super bowl matchup yeah i think it's a great question i think the answer just really depends on what you're playing right so are we talking about playing the 15 million maker with 470 000 entries or are we playing a playing the $15 Million Maker with 470,000 entries, or are we playing a single entry contest with 2,000 entries? Those things definitely matter. Are you playing a cash game? If you're playing a cash game, generally in Showdown Slate, you

want to maximize offensive scoring. So you want to do everything you can to have quarterback, quarterback, running back, running back, kicker. Essentially maximize all offensive scoring in a lot of situations. But the beauty of Showdown is it is very different for every individual game. There are a lot of different game scripts. As far as the cheap play, the $200 play, the $400 play, whatever it may be, it's really sensitive in that there are times where there's just, it can't miss play. Like you have to play that because of like a pricing error. So like what that would look like this week, I don't think

he's going to end up playing, but say miraculously, Jerick McKinnon is now active and out there, you essentially have to play Jerick McKinnon in a lot of your lineups because he's $200. It's an absolute free square if he were to take the field. So that happens. But when it's not situations like that, I think this situation is very unique in that there are three players that we know have absolutely incredible volume, and that would be Christian McCaffrey, Travis Kelsey, and Isaiah Pacheco. Those guys have very, very clear values. So I would say if you're jamming in or if you're wanting to play one of those, you know, really volatile plays at $200 to $300, it would be because you are getting all of that volume in there. That makes sense. Let me ask you this.

Of those three players, if you had to leave one out, I mean, I know it's game script dependent, but if you had to leave one out of your lineup to me it would be isaiah pacheco and the hope there is he doesn't get much receiving work and that he just gets stymied by the the san francisco defense are you building for scenarios where isaiah pacheco is not in your lineup um i mean there there will definitely be some scenarios there you know full disclosure on this i i'm playing 100 lineups uh in the the million maker so i'll give you an exposure number um on my current builds right now i have pacheco in 42 in the flex and 12 uh at captain so yeah still you know 35 to 40 of my lineups will not have isaiah pacheco very very Very, very interesting. Okay. Very interesting. Yeah. So, I mean, I, yeah, I think again, it's, it's hard to, you know,

you're not going to be able to get obviously like Kelsey, where she writes Pacheco in a lineup with, with my homes, for example, like you're going to have to sacrifice Meg. Let me ask you this in terms of builds that you're kind of walking through. You mentioned how Christian McCaffrey, Isaiah Pacheco in the captain's spot. And by the way, we will build some lineups in just a little bit, but with them in the captain's spot, are you,

are you looking at builds where it's more of a conservative game plan and you're jamming in maybe a defense or actually maybe like a kicker? Like what, what is that? What are those lineups tend to look like from a skill position standpoint? Are you, you think you're getting to the Rishi Rices or the debo samuels in those lineups you know when i do fade both quarterbacks i have been able to do builds with either of those running backs and trying to

get four to five skill guys and i mean skill guys from mcafree to down to george kittle and anywhere in between now there are some guys like Iuke and I know Mike's like, I think we spoke to this last week that I'm kind of fading that I'm off of in that skill range, but I'm trying to, my goal is to get four to five of those guys, maybe one kicker and then just one thin play is, is kind of what I'm more comfortable with and what I've liked the best as what I was building, you know, I've played with different scenarios.

And so that's been my goal is to get four to five in that group. Mike, let me ask you about the thin place. Cause there's a lot of questions in the chat, by the way, we two K says, thank you guys so much. Been a great year. You've, you've each won me money this year, this year. He says, sorry, Mike, go 49ers. Sorry, Mike, you're a chiefs fan. He thinks the 49ers are going to win, or at least he wants. Sorry, Mike, you're a Chiefs fan. He thinks the 49ers are going to win, or at least he wants them to. But he does have a question about thin plays,

and so does Joey Two-Time. Are there any thin plays, Mike, that you're leaning towards? I mean, the chat is pointing out Noah Gray. We talked about him last week. Juszczyk, I think, is really interesting. I kind of like him as a first touchdown scorer, by the way, at 40-1. Kedarious Toney is going to be active. It looks like Sky Moore is going to be active. We don't know about Jerk McKinnon. In your lineups. Are you getting to any of these thin plays? Uh, yeah, quite a few actually. Uh, it depends on how thin you want to talk. You know, first of all, I think the defenses and kickers are somewhat thin in that. I don't think they're going to be owned enough. Right. So we'll talk about this later in the show a little more, but by far the

most more casual money out of any slate of the entire season is this slate. And when a lot of newer people are coming in and just coming in to play one contest, if you're building lineups by hand, it's very uncomfortable and unusual to select kickers and defenses, especially kickers, because you don't use them on main slates. You don't use them in a lot of situations. So they will naturally, in the Super Bowl only, not necessarily in every shirt-on contest, but in these, they will go significantly under-owned. So I can tell you I have a ton of exposure to Kansas City's defense, Harrison, Butker. The cheapest plays that I've got meaningful levels on, Clyde Edwards-Hilaire right now with McKinnon's not going to be active. I have him in about 20% of lineups at 1,200.

Ray-Ray McLeod at 200 for San Francisco I've got in 12%. I've got a little bit of Noah Gray, a little bit of Juszczyk, a little bit of Richie James at 400. Richie James, insanely low volume. You'd likely need a Rishi Rice injury, which is not out of the question considering the kind of routes he runs and that he was limited a few times in that last game. But he clearly passed Mikko Hardman on the depth chart after Hardman's issues. And I say clearly he got two more snaps, which is a lot more than Hardman got where he didn't play.

So I'm playing him. I've got the sneakiest one on the board that you might think is crazy. I have Blake Bell for Kansas City at 200. Very, very interesting. I'll be the first to say, by the way, I think I said this, Meg, I think I said it with you on one of our Tuesday sort of setup shows. I think Richie James is underrated. I think the Chiefs should be – to me, he's not super talented, but to me, he's a very reliable receiver.

I think the Chiefs probably should have integrated him a bit more. All right, so here's the thing. I think now is a good time – by the way, Greg, who says, hey, here is my favorite DFS show by far, he says. Love that. Hit the Like button if you haven't already, everybody. We would really appreciate that. I'll tell you what. Let's take a break and hear a message from our partners. Then we're going to come back. We're going to address ownership real

quick and we're going to bring up the DraftKings board. So maybe we can, you know, play some, get some captains in there and just kind of build around game scripts. And then, and then we'll get out of here. And of course we'll be fielding your questions along the way. So before we do any of that, one quick message from our partner. Did you know that across Ontario, utility damage happens 19 times a day? That's over 4,222 incidents a year. Don't let your next dig be one that causes costly delays or safety risks. Before you break ground, make it a point to request a locate. It's not just the law. It's a step to keep your team and community safe. Visit OntarioOneCall.ca and avoid unnecessary damages to get the job done right.

Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. Okay, we are back. And okay, so let me ask you, Mike, from an ownership standpoint, can you kind of just list what you're seeing, at least right now, in terms of most popular captains, maybe most popular flex plays? Yeah, most popular captain, Christian McCaffrey, by a significant margin. He might be twice as owned as the next highest owned captain. I'm showing him a little over 40% right now, which I honestly can't argue with. Let's see if I can show you quickly. Yeah, so I'm showing about 40% is where he should be owned. And when I run all of my lineups, generate a pool of 5000 lineups, and then use filters and weed them down. He's still showing

up in 34% of the pool. So the 40% is clearly justified there. Second, I've got Isaiah Pacheco is coming in around 15%. Rishi Rice and Travis Kelsey, both around 13%. And then after that, nobody else is above in the double digits. So you've got Mahomes at like 5%, Purdy 4%. Kittle and Debo, those guys looking like they're going to be 3% to 4% at captain. So when you say that out loud, does it occur to you, because you're building 100 lineups, does it occur to you to, okay, well, Debo at such a low percentage, these quarterbacks at such low percentages,

maybe I need to be over the field in the captain spot with those specific guys? Definitely. So I'm over the field, at least I'm trying to be over the field in the captain spot with those specific guys. Definitely. So I'm over the field. At least I'm trying to be a little bit on Travis Kelsey still. So my actual exposure list goes like this. I've got Travis Kelsey, 26 in the captain, Christian McCaffrey, 22%, Debo Samuel, 16%. So the field, again, is about 4% on Debo. So I'm aiming to be significantly above the field on Debo, almost matching a little under on Pacheco at 12% or Shirae 7.

I do have Brandon Ayuk up to 5, and that might sound weird to some of you where I say I'm fading him. I'm not necessarily fading or I'm not necessarily all in on Ayuk. I actually barely have him at all in the flex. So what I'm saying there is, is I want to capture those times where I think Brandon Iuke will be relevant. I think he'll be so relevant

that he's essentially breaking the slate and is the optimal captain. And if he's not able to perform at that level, I don't want him in my lineup in the flex. So that's why I do have, you know, I'm going to be a little over the field on him at captain and way under the field at flex. I hope everybody understood what Mike just said about just the explosive nature of what Brandon Ayuk can do and why you'd want him in the captain

spot when he's having those explosive games as opposed to in the flex spot. And if you didn't catch it, if you just kind of tuned out, I encourage you to go back 30, 45 seconds, because that's, it's a really important point, especially as it relates to showdown. So Meg, I want to get to you in a second, because I want to build a lineup with maybe Pacheco or Christian McCaffrey at the captain. But before we do that, Mike, I want to, I want to put Debo in the captain spot and I want to, we don't have to build a full lineup necessarily, but what I really want to do is sort of talk through what a Debo-Captain lineup might look like with maybe a game flow that you would anticipate or at least a game flow that you would like

with having Debo in the captain spot. So we have Debo in here, 13,800 in the captain spot. Let's talk about what game script you would like to see with Debo at captain. I think there are a number of ways it can get there just because it's all about scoring the landing in the end zone with him. I'm still pairing him with Christian McCaffrey personally just because McCaffrey offers so much upside

and really, really, really high floor. So that is personally where I would start. After that, I think there are a couple options. You either are going to have a Purdy lineup or a Mahomes lineup. And what you want to think about here is, are we playing this scenario where San Francisco is just absolutely cruising, McCaffrey's getting his, but Debo's the one who lands in the end zone? If you're wanting to build that scenario, that is a San Francisco heavy heavy lineup the other scenario is debo samuel and mccaffrey are doing their thing all the volumes going there kansas city is playing catch-up

throwing the football more uh more passing attempts for mahomes so you tell me let's build for that one let's build for that one i think that's very intriguing okay so i absolutely love this lineup uh the only knock on it is it does use all the salary, so it may be duped a little bit. Almost everything's going to be duped when there's 470,000 entries. The first piece in here is going to be Patrick Mahomes. The next piece is going to be his obvious weapon in Travis Kelsey. So we're still looking for that volume. They're playing catch-up.

There's some passes over the middle. Next, we have to take deep shots down the field. Marquez Valdez-Scantling is the next piece in this lineup here. And then after that, it's going to end up being Ricky James. Wow. I'm looking for a scenario where Pacheco is ineffective on the ground. Potentially, Rishi Rice is either banged up, limited, or we get Richie James in that game. So it does use all the ground. Potentially, Rishi Rice is either banged up, limited, or we get Richie James in that game.

So it does use all the salary, but that is an example of a Debo Samuel lineup that I like and most likely will be one of the lineups I play. Absolutely love that. All right, let's erase that. And, Meg, let's build a lineup with maybe what you were referring to before. And I think a lot of people anticipate this is going to be a lot of Pacheco,

a lot of Christian McCaffrey. I mean, we saw, we saw what the Ravens decided they wanted to do against the chiefs and that like completely backfired. They abandoned the running game for whatever reason. And I, you know, Kyle Shanahan smart enough to look at that and be like, yeah, I'm just going to ride my horse that I've been riding all season anyway. And Christian McCaffrey. So I don't know, how do you want to build it? Like, do you want to start with Christian McCaffrey in the captain, or do you want to go to Isaiah Pacheco knowing that you're going to have

CMC in the flex spot? I mean, I think we could go either way. Obviously you have a little more salary to spend if we do Pacheco. So why don't we do, you obviously gain a little ownership discount in the captain. So why don't we do a Pacheco captain? Even though I'll be doing just like my, my plenty of Christian McCaffrey captain lineups. And by the way, Debo is my third favorite captain. So I loved watching that and building a Debo lineup. Yeah. And you all might, sorry to interrupt, you all might recall that last week when we were throwing out props, I mean, one of my most intriguing, I mean, my favorite props is Debo Samuel to be to lead in most receiving yards category which it's plus 425 at some books plus 450 at other books so again I mean it's plus 450

for a reason but I think Debo could absolutely explode so let's throw in Christian McCaffrey into that lineup okay so what does that mean Meg we're talking just a lot of running game some some kicker involvement here are we going to some pass catchers next? Yeah, well, let's try to do kind of what I talked about and see what it looks like without a quarterback. Why don't we try that? And let's put in my two favorite other volume plays. Mike spoke to it with Travis Kelsey, and then my next favorite is Debo Samuel.

You're getting all those, and you have 3,300. So then if you put like a Butker, let's see what that leaves you. Yep. And then you can do like a, well, you can't do the Justin White. You just miss Noah Gray. So you could do like a Clyde Edwards player, which is unique because you're doing two Chiefs running backs, but that tells the story of Butker, Pacheco,

and CH of why Mahomes wouldn't be in this lineup. You know, again, you want every lineup to tell a story. Why wouldn't Mahomes be in a lineup? Well, because his running backs are getting there, especially if Pacheco's getting two touchdowns, you know, if Bucker's kicking a couple of the field goals. You know, that's just an example of why the quarterbacks wouldn't get there. And then Debo and McCaffrey are soaking up all that 49ers usage. Maybe it's, you know, two to three rushing touchdowns from both of them combined. And that's why Purdy's not getting there. You know, it's a way to tell the story. I love that. I love the story you're telling there quite a bit. So that leaves 400 left over for those of you that are not watching and you're just listening. 400 left over in that lineup. All right. Let's do something a little bit different.

Joey two times says, can you put MBS in the captain spot? Mike, let me ask you, like this is no offense to joy, but like, are we kind of wasting time putting MBS in the captain spot? I mean, when there's a million dollars up top, I'll never say it's a waste of time. He is on the field. He can get targeted. Having said that, I don't get any at 100. Let me see if I make it. Yeah, I'm still not getting any at 500 lineups. So probably, yeah. Needless to say, if you do that, you can fit in a lot of, a lot of stuff there. Can I ask Mike a quick question? Yeah.

Someone in the chat asked, I believe about a kicker captain. And we talked about Pacheco or excuse me, Harrison Bucker last week. And Mike talked to, and I agree, like when I'm going down, I don't consider the kicker and defenses thin plays at all. So I'm, I'm talking below them is what I consider thin kicker and defense. I'm comfortable with. Mike, would you do like a Butker captain? I don't have any currently.

I think he's a much better play in the flex. Just the reason for it in this particular slate, like if we were talking about a regular season game, you know, like an example, Cleveland versus Pittsburgh or something that we know is a sloppy, slow, low scoring game with some limited offensive upside, then I think it would make a ton of sense. Here, I think there's just simply too much upside on the field to go that route. So I like it as a captain play, not as much as a, I mean, as a flex play, not as much as a captain. We'll rush through this. I want to show you my favorite McCaffrey fade lineup. Oh, I mean, as a flex play, not as much as a captain. Right. Um, we'll rush through this. I want to show you my favorite McCaffrey fade lineup. Uh, Oh, I love it already.

Go ahead. Another Pacheco captain though. Uh, so we'll run Pacheco in the captain and then the Kansas city chiefs defense is going to be the next play, um, that I like in this lineup. So there's naturally some correlation between a running back and their defense. So what I'm building for here is the scenario where Brock Purdy either throws an interception, McCaffrey loses a fumble,

whatever it is, right. And we were getting some shorter fields, but Checo gets the touchdowns. The defense is scoring well. So now we have San Francisco in a trailing game script. We're going to absolutely load up on San Francisco with a triple stack here. So it's going to be Brock Purdy, Debo Samuel, Brandon Ayuk, and George Kittle.

So the scenario that happens here is early turnovers on the San Francisco side. Pacheco's landed in the end zone once or twice without mahomes throwing down the field without hitting a bunch of kelsey all of a sudden san francisco is in catch-up mode hurry up mode the other scenario we never like to plan for it because it's very low likelihood uh this could also be a scenario where christian mccaffrey gets injured in this football game he eats he takes a lot of hits a lot of volume uh so this is a scenario where you're talking about the defensive correlation with Pacheco potentially creating turnovers. He gets in the end zone.

Now it's all throwing all the time for San Francisco. Let me ask you this as a variation on this lineup, and I'm just asking because I don't know the answer to the question, but if you wanted to build this scenario and you just thought all the volume was going to Debo and Brandon Ayuk as opposed to Kittle being in the mix, could you take out Kittle and put in Harrison Butker with the idea that Kansas City is kind of nursing a big lead early and they're okay settling for some field goals, knowing that Butker and the Chiefs usually get in field goal range anyway? Yes, you definitely could. I think that the reason that the computer didn't want to is because the playing catch up in the PPR volume for a guy like Kittle.

But yeah, I think there are definitely scenarios. I mean, you go look at game logs, for instance. I mean, there are certainly scenarios where Harrison Butker outscores George Kittle in this game. Absolutely. I mean, yeah, we talked about that last week. The Harrison Butker game logs are pretty ridiculous. Don't forget, this is in Vegas. It's a dome environment, really good kicking environment. The Chiefs defense as well. They have scored double digits eight times this season. You know, go look for someone at $3,400 that scored double digits eight times. Not going to find it very often. And by the way, I think you should be building for, and we're going to do this in a second, because I think you should be building for, if you're, especially if you're building multiple lineups, like, like blowouts on each side. And we've seen Brock Purdy kind of be victimized by the Baltimore Ravens, not, not too long ago. And it's certainly not outside, even if you like the 49ers to win this game, if you're building five or 10 lineups, like you kind of

have to build for the scenario. Cause we've seen it recently where Brock Purdy just gets rattled let's not forget Mr. Irrelevant you know who just we've seen him kind of struggle in large part over the last four or five weeks so it's just something to consider I think he's going to have an okay game but he could absolutely get turned over and this this really could be a Chiefs role and if you think that or if you want to build a lineup toward toward doing that then this is at least one of the ways you can do it. I actually want to build, when we get back from break, I want to build a lineup where maybe, like not a lot of people are talking about, maybe for good reason, but what if San Francisco blows out the Chiefs?

Let's talk about that on the way back, just to kind of get people thinking in different mindsets than what you're going to see on shows like this, which is, oh, it's a tight game. It's going to be limited possessions. Like that's all very true, most likely, but not definitely. So let's take a quick break here from our partners, and then we'll get back to that. We are back. That was the remix for sure. All right. So let's build for Meg. Let's start with you. So I want to help out on this one let's build for san francisco just rolling uh

kansas city somehow so let's start in that scenario i think we start probably with christian mcafree we lost the board here which is fine let's let's just like we don't necessarily need to look at the the pricing here oh it's back already um christian mcafree at the captain spot so we're going to clear these lineups and we're going to build for just listen christian mcafree just absolutely rolls maybe we build for what you were talking about earlier meg with with the lack of like the lack of a need for for brock party so if if christian mcafree and company are going to blow out the chiefs where do we go next after mcafree at the captain spot well i think if it's a catch-up game you you know, for Mahomes and the passing,

then you've got to incorporate Mahomes in the passing game. So I think next it has to be Mahomes and then probably Kelsey and or Rice. I don't know if we can fit all three with McCaffrey and the captain, but I definitely think Mahomes, Kelsey are the next two in. Okay, Mahomes and Kelsey. So what does that leave us with? It leaves us with clicking on Kelsey. We probably can get a hundred and change.

But we have a lot of, as Mike said, you know, some cheaper chiefs receivers that we can go to that still talk to that catch up script, whether it's Justin Watson and MVS, you know, so we could, we could put one or two of those guys in. Yeah. So I'm looking at Justin Watson. He's twenty four hundred. That saves us a little bit of money. You know, I almost want to take the chance. Noah Gray's eighteen hundred or Noah Gray. Yeah, you could do Richie James. Yeah. Richie James is so interesting because he's so cheap. Let's just have some fun with Richie James. Yeah, sure. Come up on the show. So he's only 400. We're putting him in our lineup. That leaves us

9,000 remaining salary. Wait, is that for, oh no, no. Let's take Noah Gray out. We'll take Noah Gray out and we'll just have Richie James in there. Okay. So that leaves us 5,400. So do we want to throw in a, I mean, do we want to throw in a San Francisco 49er next, or do we go right back to the Chiefs? Yeah, well, I think you could, I think it makes sense from a blowout perspective that another 49er is probably a part of that, whether it's Kittle, Ayuk, Debo, you know, we're not going to be, so I think whatever fits, obviously Kittle is the cheapest. I mean, again, I like Debo the best, but Kittle is the cheapest. So I think we have to probably say somebody's at helping add to that 49ers blowout, or we could

do the 49ers defense, kind of the flip side of what Mike was doing earlier. Right. I like Kittle and the Niners defense there to round that out. I was going to say, does that fit? Okay. Yeah. Then there you go. Yeah. Oh my gosh. That zeroes out. Oh my gosh. That is very interesting. Well done Megan. Mike, what do you think of that? Like, does, does that reflect kind of what we were going for with like a potential blowout on the Niner side? It does. It does. I think the only thing that you could potentially even change would be uh playing someone else over mahomes is the only thing it um because if they're scoring enough for mahomes to be in there they it could really limit the defense of being optimal but it's probably

probably correct just like this because kansas city really doesn't have another volume pass catcher that would likely still outscore Mahomes. So the scenario that it would, what I'm thinking of is thinking of another team that would have the receiver that would be able to get nine catches and 70 yards without the touchdown, which might outscore Mahomes if he doesn't get two touchdowns. But I don't think they have that guy on the roster, so I would probably still have Mahomes in there. Okay, speaking of Mahomes, before we get out of here, I think we should build a lineup with a quarterback. I know it's going to be unpopular, and that's kind of why I want to build it.

I think we should build a lineup with a quarterback as the captain. And what's really interesting about that, Mike, I don't want to build it with Patrick Mahomes. I almost want to do a Purdy captain. I don't know. A Purdy captain with, like, let's get the pass catchers in there. Maybe it's another Christian McCaffrey fade. Does that sound silly? Not silly at all.

I've only got two Brock Purdy lineups in my pool, and they do not have Christian McCaffrey in them. And Nata's done some of the dirty work for us. He put in Debo, Ayuk, and Kittle. Is that too much? Do we want to have two pass catchers and then go somewhere else? I personally think

you want two pass catchers for sure. My favorites in a Purdy build, Purdy captain, would be Kittle and Samuel. Okay, so let's take out Kittle. We've got Brandon Ayuk in there. And then where do we want to go on the other side of that with Purdy as our captain? Could you do Chiefs defense?

Because, again, telling the story that they're playing catch-up and, you know, maybe he's down and throwing so much because there was a pick six or something along those lines. That's interesting. Yeah. Mike, what do you think about that? Yeah, I don't mind it at all. Um, okay. So let's, I like that. Let's put in IUK. Let's put it in the chiefs defense and see where it gets us. I like that call quite a bit. So we've got chiefs D Brandon IUK at 8,800. That leaves us 6,800 left. All right, Meg, where do you want to go next? We've got, where the descript here is that like the Niners are playing comeback ball. Brock Porte's piling up the points in the second, third and fourth quarter. Does that mean we want to go to Pacheco or no? I was going to say, I'd say that would speak to the chief's pacheco combination and correlation that mike spoke to earlier mike if is pacheco the play there and if so where do we go with our final spot uh yeah it's either pacheco or rice it's got to be one of

those two um yeah i'm good with either one and then what do we have left? We have 5,600 left. We're in the kicker range. Yeah, we're in the kicker range. Mike, where would you finish this lineup off? Probably still Harrison Bucker. Yeah. Yeah. I agree, Meg.

I think this is – I actually like this lineup a lot. 100%. 100%. Especially if the Chiefs – listen. If you you think the chiefs if you don't believe in brock purdy and you think the chiefs are going to get after him earlier at least you think there's a higher probability than most people think that that will happen this sets up you know pretty well again it's a cmc fate so you have to get i almost want to say you have to get lucky

there a little bit that somehow cmc doesn't gobble up all the volume that people anticipate gets in the end zone and all that. But there are scenarios where that could happen and nobody's going to, there's going to be, Mike, how many lineups do you think, let's say in single entry, and I know you don't have these exact numbers in front of you, but if you're doing a single entry contest and there's 2000 people in it, let's say, percentage wise, and let's say it's like not superwise, and let's say it's not super high dollar. Let's say it's like a $33 single entry, something like that. Percentage-wise, how many lineups do you think will have Christian McCaffrey in such a single entry contest? Just in the captain or in –

In general. In general. Yeah. I think it's, let's see. In the Super Bowl, I would say 90%. Yeah. Meg, you agree, right? I mean, I did like, I'm not. I was going to guess 80 to 90. Yeah.

That's what I was going to say too. I'm not suggesting we should fade CMC, but we have to see where the opportunity lies. And if for some reason, you know, and Mike suggested it, like, you know, maybe he gets dinged up, maybe like there's a calf strain or something. And we know what, you know, he was kind of getting his neck worked on at the end of the game. That's why Elijah Mitchell came into that game. I mean, there are scenarios where he either has a bad game or gets dinged up because of all the volume he's getting potentially. So, I mean, I just think some of those things, if you're building multiple, multiple lineups, I'm not suggesting in your $33

single entry, you shouldn't play Christian McCaffrey, but I am suggesting if you're building 10, 15 lineups, if you had one without Christian McCaffrey, it doesn't have that game that people anticipate. Well, then all of a sudden you're probably in pretty good shape. Before we get out of here, let's do, Meg, I'm going to start with you. What I really wanted to do is build some lineups in this show and just have people thinking of, because not a lot of people play a ton of showdown. I want people thinking of what's the mindset? When you're building a lineup, what's the story you're telling? And Meg, you did a good job of expressing that storytelling part of these showdown lineups. Let me ask you, what is the game script?

Not that you anticipate the most, but the game script that you're going to build around the most in your showdown lineups. And then Mike, I'm going to ask you. The game, kind of what we talked about last week, a close game that leans heavily on the run game is the kind of the game script that I'm looking towards. So that the usage is really soaked up by McCaffrey and Pacheco. And it's close enough that one of the passing games don't have to go nuclear. That's the game script I'm going to build around the most. Absolutely. Where it's the quarterback points

are somewhat mitigated. By the running backs. Right. All right. And potentially the kickers. And potentially the kickers. Absolutely. And Mike, and I know you've talked about this like last week you talked about how you thought this was a game with most likely limited possessions, probably as a product of what Meg's talking about, the running game. So do you have a game script that kind of mirrors what Meg just said? And if so, you can say yes or no, but if you do, maybe an alternative game script that is at least second down the line. Yeah, so I'm definitely building for a variety of game scripts across 100 lineups here, but I would say a good portion of them are building for the scenario that the underdog Kansas City wins a very close competitive game. Um, so that, that, that's mostly where I'm at, but I'm still really more focused on some of the volume and less on the game script itself in a majority of them. Um, so I really want specific

numbers on specific players. So where I have my projected ownership i want to basically just take calculated bets with where you know make little stands where i'm at because i'm looking at my portfolio of the hundred lineups more than trying to win it with one lineup three lineups five lineups whatever it may be uh the biggest thing i would say is i'm way over on the field on Debo at captain. I am under the field on both quarterbacks at captain, about half the field on McCaffrey. So I'm not full fading McCaffrey, but definitely don't have as much as a lot of people will. Again, way over on Debo and Flex, way over the field on Kansas City's defense, and I'm over the field on George Kittle. Let me ask you this, in terms of Kelsey and Rasheed Rice, because I don't think you mentioned them, are you over, under, or kind of equal to the field on them? I am drastically under the field on Rishi Rice, about half.

So I'm showing him in flex ownership around 45% to 50%. I have him at about 22%, 23%. So I have more exposure to Harrison Bucker than I do Rishi Rice. Travis Kelsey, I am matching the field exactly. So whatever the projected ownership, and there's a couple reasons why I'm doing that. I don't think the projected ownership is going to be able to capture where Kelsey is actually going to get owned. I really do think that he's going to get inflated just because there's a lot more casual money coming into at least the contests that I'm playing. So I'm going to match the field knowing that I'm likely to be just a little bit under. And right now that number in flex is 38%.

So I, and I've got them 37. I have slightly more Kittle than Kelsey at flex, way more Kelsey at captain. So very similar to what I talked about with Brandon Ayuk. I really only want him in captain. That's kind of where I'm at with, uh, with Kelsey a little bit. I think that because of his price tag and some of the other options in the game, uh, where Kelsey is most likely to be the most beneficial is the captain spot where he's scoring multiple touchdowns. So Kelsey is my most popular captain right now ahead of Christian McCaffrey and Devo.

Okay. And Meg, before we close out, so I know you like Pacheco in the captain spot. I know you like Christian McCaffrey in the captain spot. If you could pick a third place captain or when you pick a third place captain, when you're crafting your lineups, who would that person be? I'm agreeing with you and Mike, definitely Devo Samuel is my third. All right. I love it. Devo Samuel is her third. It's my first or second, maybe second. I know probably first, I'm It's my first or second, maybe second. I know probably first. I'm not going to build a ton of lineups. So Debo is going to be in probably my primary lineup.

You got to take chances in showdown. That's the bottom line. You got to go with your game script. You got to sell it to yourself. And then hopefully it turns out that way in the game. This is this is crazy. This is the last FFT DFS show, at least for this season. We'll do with the offseason series like we always do, but we'll probably take a little bit of a break before you start seeing some of the off-season content. Of course, you'll be able to catch Meg.

You'll be able to catch Mike McClure doing things across these channels as well. Can I say, I think we'll hopefully be able to start seeing me do some best ball content on this channel in the not-too-distant future, hopefully you'll be able to start seeing me do some best ball content on this channel in the not too distant future, hopefully. Underdog has already launched a best ball tournament and I'll be in the best ball streets. That's why I said I'm an NFL 365 girl. So I'm already in the best ball streets and hopefully you'll see some best ball content on here too. And if you want to do that, you stick to these channels channels but also follow meg because she'll tweet that stuff out i know she does just like i do at m-e-g-s-0-8-d-f-s and of course you know where to find mike mcclure

you find him on this channel but really it's on sportsline where you're going to see so much of his content on cbs sports hq if you're not a member of sportsline you're missing out on mike mcclure's projection models his dfs content he covers every single sport i cover most of the sports as well uh mike mcclure is the actual goat though so make sure you follow mike uh on twitter and really everywhere else ladies and gentlemen thank you so much for being uh in the chat thanks for being supportive of this show i know some of you have written some reviews which i saw the other day and they were really really nice we really really appreciate that you still have time to do that if you want to. Don't forget our contest, our DFS, our last contest.

It's in this chat, but it'll also be in the podcast description. So make sure you sign up for that. It's only five bucks. Smith Waller says, I'm going to miss this DFS show. Well, don't worry. We'll be back soon enough. Everybody, thanks for being in here. Really, really appreciate you.

Enjoy the Super Bowl. Enjoy the offseason. And you'll catch us during that offseason soon enough on behalf of Mike McClure, on behalf of Meg Schaap, on behalf of Nada, our producer, who brings it every single time we have a show. My name is

Sian Ajad. Thanks for being a part of this. Enjoy the Super Bowl. We'll see you next time.