Fantasy Football Today - FFT Dynasty - 2025 NFL Draft Running Back Prospects Part 2! (04/08 Dynasty Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: April 8, 2025

Heath Cummings is joined by Jacob Gibbs to break down the running backs from the 2025 Draft Class, providing expert analysis and projections to help you stay ahead in your fantasy football dynasty leagues. The duo kicks things off with a discussion on their favorite backs they didn’t cover in the previous episode (1:00), before diving into whether Round 3 draft status or going undrafted impacts a player’s value (2:30). They then examine the key factors in evaluating running backs (5:00) before diving into specific players, starting with Devin Neal from Kansas (8:00). Next, they explore RJ Harvey from UCF (14:15), Bhayshul Tuten from Virginia Tech (20:20), Dylan Samson from Tennessee (27:38), Ollie Gordon from Oklahoma State (33:10), and DJ Giddens from Kansas State (39:25). They wrap up with their favorite sleeper picks (44:40), offering valuable insights for fantasy owners. Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday SUBSCRIBE to FFT Express on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-express/id1528634304 Follow FFT Express on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6qyGWfETSBFaciPrtvoWCC?si=6529cbee20634da8 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 FOLLOW FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 SUBSCRIBE to FFT DFS on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dfs/id1579415837 FOLLOW FFT DFS on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5zU7pBvGK3KPhfb69Q1hNr?si=1c5030a3b1a64be2 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." Visit the betting arena on CBSSports.com for all the latest sportsbook reviews and sportsbook promos. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to Fantasy Football Today Dynasty. I am your host, Heath Cummings. I'm joined once again by Jacob Gibbs. This is the Rookie Running Back Preview Part 2 and we're going to start immediately with a comment from YouTube. Brian, before the show even starts, let Jacob talk more, please. Love the show. I'll tell you what, if you want to hear Jacob talk more, this is the show for you. We are breaking down RB 7 through 12 in the consensus running back rankings. We will talk about Devin Neal, RJ Harvey, Dylan Sampson, Ollie Gordon, DJ Giddens, and more. We'll start, as we always do, with three questions for our guest, and we'll start with the and more. We'll start as we always do with three questions for our guests and we'll start with the and more. Gibbs, I want you to think about the names that we talked about last

week on Friday, RB 1 through 6 in the class. We're doing 7 through 12 today. Who is your favorite back that we didn't talk about last week and we're not going to talk about later in the show? Yeah. So Matt Walden brought up two guys who would be my, my first two answers for like real life and that's Demi Martinez and Taj Brooks. So it's almost like he's, he's good at his job. That my third answer would be Raheem Sanders. Uh, and he has gone completely forgotten.

Uh, but he was two years ago, uh, like, you know, maybe like the back in the sec in terms of like looking ahead to, um, upcoming draft classes, like, you know, maybe like the back in the SEC in terms of like looking ahead to upcoming draft classes. He has some injuries and they kind of tried to like reinvent his game and that didn't go super well. But I thought towards the end of his time in South Carolina, he was really playing well. He's a guy who can contribute on all three downs. In fact, he tied Ash and Jinty for the most avoided tackles throughout a career on receptions. Weird stat, but like he's fun. They call him Rocket Sanders. He's a big guy, but he does have some burst and he does have some wiggle. He can make people miss. His advanced stats are pretty good.

And then, yeah, again, just like early breakout in the SEC, looked like a stud. And I think he's somebody who might end up going in like round six or something. Just a name to really to keep in mind, you can get him laid in legacy drafts. And he has some juice still. A 44640 at 217 pounds and the nickname Rocket. How could you go wrong with that? Question number two.

I'm viewing these backs. You mentioned with Sanders, maybe around six guy, I'm viewing the backs that we're going to talk about today as likely day three picks. We talk a lot about draft capital and landing spot on this show, especially with the rookies. How much will it matter to you if one of these guys creeps into day two or in the other side, if one of these guys creeps into day two or the other side,

if one of these guys doesn't get drafted at all. I'm sure there's research on it. I wish that I had the time to find it before we got started here. Like I feel like Ryan Heath, the fantasy points.com or like maybe JJ Zachary's and of a late round QB.com are your best bets to have answered that specific question with that already. Um, cause it's a great question. It's important.

Um, it definitely, It definitely feels important, the distinction between round three or undrafted. Like UDFAs, they can play themselves into a role, but it is a clear signal of a team's belief in a player if they use draft capital on them. And I do think that's important. The most recent example just anecdotally would be Kimane Bidel.

He comes to mind he was at 17th running back selected in 2024. And a lot of us, you know, try to wish cast him into a potential role. And I'll throw my name into that because he did have really cool, you know, advanced metrics and all of that. But the reality of the situation was, yeah, 17th running back selected, five teams decided to pass on him to take a different running back around five. The Chargers had two fifth around picks, then to take him around five. And then eventually gets picked around six. And then, you know, we see even with multiple

backfield injuries, he was minimally involved as a rookie. And so I do think it matters when a team like does or does not indicate belief in a player. I think it will be really interesting on the other side of that question. I wouldn't be surprised if there's a couple of backs taken in the second half of round three on day two, and then a couple of backs taken early in round four on day three. And we're going to have that whole evening of analysis and early Saturday morning where this back was a day two back and this guy isn't. And I do think that will maybe influence perception a little bit more than it will matter to me.

Those, those cutoffs between pick 30 and pick 36, maybe not as big as they seem or pick 90 and pick 106, not as big as they seem based on the cutoffs. And when we start analyzing the players and how we view them as day one, day two, or day three picks. I want to, we're going to talk so much today specifically about individual players. I want to zoom out just a little bit at the top here though, and just ask for question number three, what do you think is the most important thing about running back evaluation? What do you think is the most important thing about running back evaluation?

My favorite attribute is contact balance, which I would classify as a subset of my favorite trait, which is a running back's ability to create yardage on their own. If we're talking specifically for fantasy evaluation, then my answer would be an ability to contribute receptions. Scott Barrett of fantasypoints.com has detailed this for close to 10 years now. It's been known and he updates the research. Even in non-PPR leagues, a reception is worth much more than a rush attempt. And so running backs who are able to get on the field for three downs just are going to accumulate more points,

especially if you're playing in any sort of PPR format. So if you look at running backs from this class, who can do both, can get on the field on passing downs, potentially play three downs, and can create yardage on their own. There's actually quite a few names. And there's a reason that people like this class so much. At the top, you clearly have Ash and Gentie,

you know, Mari and Hampton, who fit the bill in terms of being able to do both. Couple other sneakier ones are Devon Neal and Ollie Gordon who were really, really productive collegiate backs but have fallen down the board some. And I think that is fair because there are some, I have some questions about their ability to pick up yards after contact as an NFL player

against NFL defenses, but they did it at a pretty good level at the collegiate level and they definitely can play on passing downs. DJ Giddens, he, we're going to talk about him more later. He's definitely somebody who can do both. Um, some maybes are like cam Scadaboo, by shell toden, um, RJ Harvey. Those guys are all exciting, but there are past protection concerns. RJ Harvey was asked to protect a lot in 2023. It didn't go particularly well.

And they scaled that role back in 2024, and it went even worse. So like, is he gonna be just an early down guy that maybe limits his fantasy appeal? But in terms of being able to create yards on their own, those guys are excellent. And if they are able to get on the field because they can create,

as you know, pass sketches out of the backfield, and we're looking at really exciting fantasy upside for guys you can get sort of later in your rookie drafts. Taj Brooks that Walden brought up last week definitely can do both. I don't know if it'll be at a high enough level for an NFL team to want to get him on the field all that often but if he gets the opportunity he can do both. He can create on his own and he can play on passing downs. And then a sneaky name that we're going to get to later, Jacori Kroski Merritt can do both at a high level. I think I'm really excited.

We'll talk about him later. I did not have that name on my bingo card for today's show. That's Jacob Gibbs. That's the first part of our show. We'll take a short break and we will jump into RB seven through 12. We are back and we are starting with the consensus RB seven in the 2025 running back class. It's Devon Neal out of Kansas. And I'm, I'm going to be honest here at the start, Jacob, if we had done Friday's show

based on Heath's preliminary top six and not the consensus top six, Devon Neal would have been in that group. And there's probably a little bit of bias on my part. I've watched more Kansas Jayhawks football than I would care to admit. And Devin Neal has been doing this for a while, not, not a newcomer to the scene by any means in his last year makes huge explosive plays. And I think really maybe gets underrated a little bit in the passing game. So I'm super excited about Devon Neal. I, depending on landing spot could have him as high as RB

five in this class. Where are you at on Neil and what's the evaluation? Yeah. So Neil, you, you hit on it. He's been very productive. Only Ashton Jinty has more career PPR points from this class. But I do, you'll notice that I listed his career point total, not a per game number. We'll get to some massive per game producers here in a second. That wasn't Neil so much. He was an accumulator. And that's borne out in his advanced rushing data, middling, avoided tackle rates. But that's definitely not the end-all be-all. I mean, people, I famously was worried about Saquon Barkley's avoided tackle rates for reference.

And then he went nuts. Another great example is Trevion Henderson has the fourth lowest career rate in terms of avoided tackles per rush among the running backs in this class. But so that you can still be productive even if you're not making people miss a lot or creating a ton of yards on your own.

But Neil is not exactly the big play speed threat that Henderson or Saquon Barkley are, you know. So that does give me some concern. I do think that he has the quickness to make one guy miss, you know, like make a miss in a phone booth, that kind of thing. He's definitely got the latter of the agility, but as an athlete, he is a little bit underwhelming. That shows up in his testing,

and I do think it shows up on film. Another thing I would say about him is that while he can contribute on passing downs, he is a really natural and clean and smooth receiver. I think he might be like in the bottom half at least, if not even like the bottom third of this class as a rusher and people are gonna get up in arms. People really like Devin Neal and I get it.

He's a great player, great collegiate player, but like he's not as powerful as I think he should be for somebody with his build. He's 5'11 to 11'15, something like that. He had the fifth lowest success rate, rushing success rate on short yardage runs. So what I'm talking about there is success rate on the first two downs. If you get half of the yardage required to get a first down, that's a success. On third and fourth down, if you get a first down, that's a success. On third and fourth down, if you get a first down,

that's a success. And then it just goes into this cumulative stat success rate. Short yardage runs are when three or fewer yards are needed. He wasn't very good on those. And I do think that shows up in a lack of contact balance and leg drive that a lot of running backs in this class have in spades. There are some really strong, more compact running backs. Neil doesn't quite have that.

And so I just, I do wonder like what, what his role will be in the NFL. It might, it feels like it might just be a career backup. I don't know. Like there, if there are the NFL, it feels like the running back position is about to be really stacked in the NFL where there's like 40 or 45 running backs who are good. And if most teams are going to have a guy who's better at getting those yardage, those extra yards that you need the Neil, I don't know what his role will be. But he's definitely intriguing. He's a really complete player.

You think he's a little bit more dependent on landing, landing on a team that doesn't have one of those rushers right now. Cause we know like you say 40 or 45, there's already, I think we would say a handful up to 10 teams that may have two of those guys. And there's going to be some teams that already have one and maybe it's an older one, like a 29 or 30 year old running back and they're going to add a rookie. Um, if Neil,'s say, I'll give you a hypothetical landing spot, lands, he's the first running back Denver takes in round four. And now he's just competing with those guys and not with the other 40 running backs in the NFL. Does that landing spot make a big difference for him?

Yeah, of course. Yeah, Denver is the ideal landing spot for running backs, especially if it's a running back who can contribute as a pass catcher. That would that would be if if he gets the Sean Payton vote of confidence and they don't have much else that they add then it's like yeah, push him up the board for sure he in that situation he's like, I think you could put him close around one and dynasty startups like for sure he definitely has the skill set to play all three downs and at the end of the day, I mean, Joe mixing has shown us for year after year after year if you're playing all three downs. And at the end of the day, I mean, Joe Mixon has shown us for year after year after year, if you're playing all three downs in NFL, you're probably gonna be productive for fantasy.

Neil has, it seems to me like a skill set that coaches may like a little bit more than fantasy managers. He seems to be at least adequate in pass protection, maybe even good and absolutely no ball security concerns. I know somebody in the chat had said, I see David Montgomery when I look at Neil, and I think you'd probably balk at that maybe a little bit because of the tackle avoidance that Montgomery was

just exceptional at in college. But one thing that guys like Montgomery and even Jamal Williams before him in Detroit, there are coaches that really just like the guy who does what he's supposed to do. You think that's a good description of Neil? Yeah. Montgomery is so much better, I think as a strong runner and a contact balanced guy, and being able to get those short yardage runs that you need. I think comparison for Neil would be like Devin Singletary, but not as elusive. But like that is kind of the fact that you're alluding to, like somebody, I mean,

coaches have definitely loved single therapy. He's gotten on the field every race went. That will do it for Devin Neil, who again is my RB five or six in the class right now. He's currently RB seven in the consensus rankings landing spots going to matter a lot for him. Jacob thinks, you know, he may be just a backup running back in the NFL, but in the right opportunity, he could definitely move up draft boards. Let's get to RB eight in the class. And I think I saw you tweeting about this guy either last night or this morning.

RJ Harvey out of UCF. Yeah, I love RJ Harvey. He's a hilarious guy to follow up Neo because they're just complete opposites. RJ Harvey's strength is his weakness He you know if he shows up to the interview and they asked what his weaknesses he can say that I'm always trying to you know Create more than there is there and it's true He's always trying to maximize every situation and make a big run happen And that's born out in the data like when met at or behind the line of scrimmage

born out in the data like when met at or behind the line of scrimmage he had the third highest stuffed rate and so stuff is qualified as a run that gained zero or negative yardage so third high stuff right in the class on runs where initial contact was met at the line of scrimmage but he had one of the highest yards after contact per rush rates on those runs. And so he does create big plays on those runs quite often, but he's also taking negative plays. And so the question is, can he be somebody like Bucky Irving, where that's the player that people like to compare him to,

can he do that at a efficient enough clip that he can continue to get on the field, or is he just gonna annoy his is you know coach because like if he can't pass protect and he's taking negative plays and he's not like producing enough huge explosive plays then he might be somebody who just goes away but yeah I absolutely loved his film to me he reminds me of a hybrid of like Bucky Irving and Tajay Spears who are two guys who I'm enamored with because they can create yards on their own. Very, very elusive contact balance, all of it really, really like R.J. Harvey. And as you said, kind of the opposite of Neil has had some problems in past

protection, has had some problems with ball security. dynasty Dave in the chat says it sounds like Kenneth Walker. We've done when you're talking, I know what he's talking about with that. It's, it's an all or nothing type thing. You'll get the big plays, but you'll also get a lot of runs for negative yardage. I assume though, it's a, it's a much lesser version of Kenneth Walker. Yeah. I, yeah, I think so. I mean, Kenneth Walker is pretty special.

If you just watch him, like there's, there's not very many guys where it's like, oh, he reminds me of Kenneth Walker, you know, because he's insane and stuff he can do. But I mean, Harvey was really, really productive and his avoid attack rates, his yards after contact are really, really good. If you look at the highest PPR point per game averages as a starting running back for a career, it's Ashwin Genti, 27.7, Kim Scadaboo, 24.5, and then Harvey is next, 23.2, above Amariah and Hampton, above Dylan Sampson, and some of these other really good running backs. So I think if he were to, you know, like say the Jaguars draft Harvey and he is now, you know, the Bucky Irving paired up with Liam Cohen and he gets to emulate that role,

I absolutely think he could like work his way into a very fantasy relevant role there. So that's interesting how, because I think that's somebody and I listen, I hope Jacksonville doesn't draft a running back because I'm having a hard enough time figuring out how they're going to employ Travis ETN and tank Bigsby. But how, how would you, I think like ETN was a first round pick, how would you compare him to Bigsby though? Like ETN was a first round pick. How would you compare him to Bigsby though? Hmm. Bigsby, they effectively do kind of the same thing, but they do it in a different way.

I prefer Harvey the way that he wins, but Bigsby has the ability to create extreme rushing efficiency as we saw last year. The other difference is that Harvey can really contribute on passing downs, whereas like they seem to not want Bigsby on the field on passing downs under any circumstances. So we talked about the potential problems as a pass blocker, but you feel Harvey just as a receiver could have a lot of success. For sure. Yeah. He's really natural as a receiver produced well as a receiver and given opportunities. Yeah. And we see here, Thomas, if you're watching on YouTube, highlighting some of Gibbs

tweets about RJ Harvey, he does seem to have a lot of advanced stats that really of advanced stats that really put him into some elite company. Is Harvey the type of running back that the true media view is a little bit more complimentary to him than the film is? Well, I think there's a ton of people who watch his film and are in love with him for sure. But like, yeah, absolutely. If you look at any of these advanced stats, the one we've got on the screen here is highest career rushing EPA per snap was RJ Harvey. But like yeah, absolutely if you look at any of these advanced stats when we've got on the screen here is highest career

rushing EPA per snap was RJ Harvey, but I that is sort of a team level stat and I did think that his His offensive environment was conducive to success A lot of these running backs don't have the benefit of playing with a coordinator who's like putting them in position to maximize their skill set He did. So if he were to go to Liam Cullen, it would be kind of like what we saw in college. And we've already seen him win in this role. We'll talk about Dylan Sampson. There are teams that really take advantage

of the rules and the wider hashes at the collegiate level and spread things out. And R.J. Harvey was absolutely one of those backs, for sure. But I mean, I do think it shows up on film that he's very, very elusive. He's very hard to tackle. You talked about how the like Neil landing in Denver without much competition might elevate him into borderline round one consideration. Would you say the same for Harvey? Yeah, I think so. I would. I would. If you like if if he was I like the fit for Neil and Denver better because I trust them as a past protector If Harvey were to land in Denver, I would wonder if that might be more of a bit role

You know where where Peyton season more is like an 8 to 12 touch guy Whereas like I think we could legitimately see him push up to like 15 ish touches like Bucky did last year if he was With Cohen or someone like that That is RJ Harvey out of UCF. We are moving on and moving right along to RB nine in the class, Basial Tutin. This was the guy out of Virginia tech that I, you know, he's got one of those names that you just got to ask, but I have seen plenty of people talking about him on social media.

What's your email on to? Yeah, I mean, just like Harvey, he's an easy guy to fall in love with. And there's no surprise that there are a lot of people on social media who have and because he has the advanced statistics and he has awesome film. He's he's similar to Harvey in some ways, for sure, especially statistically. So like he like Harvey really took a lot of negative plays, but also created a lot of yards when there was nothing there. He had the lowest

success rate on short yardage runs, the stat that I brought up earlier with Neil. And so that, I think that makes sense when you watch him. He can be a bit indecisive and I think his vision can be a bit of a concern. But I also see him at times like when he's not overthinking things and I think he has a really natural feel for space So I do think he could improve on those things. But if you just look at what happened He did have the lowest success rate on short yardage runs He had the second highest stuffed rate on runs where initial contact with the defender came at or behind the line of scrimmage But the fourth highest yards after contact on those runs. So similar to Harvey, more top line speed, which by the way, Harvey is fast. I brought him up as like a Bucky Irving comparison, but he's

like a tick faster than Irving for sure. He can really make explosive plays. Tudin, obviously the fastest in the class. And that shows up on film. He gets downhill so fast and it's hilarious. Some of these runs because like the defensive backs are not even ready for him to get to the second level of the speed that he does. And it's just becomes this collision where everybody's like rolling. Um, he's extremely fast and he also can like shift and change gears at while he's like near top speed. Um, I also think he can contribute as a receiver.

He's another guy who I worry about his pass protection. He really didn't get to do it very often at the collegiate level, but he was used as a pass catcher out of the backfield. So he's really, really exciting. He's like second or third in career avoided tackle rate. Yeah, Ash and Gent is the only one with a higher avoided tackle rate than two.

And so it's like, if you can avoid tackles at such a high rate and you have that top line speed, you're a big play weight and happen at any time. Friend of the show fantasy, but well, mad scientist is in the chat says, tootin seems like a prototypical Miami or San Francisco running back outside zone speedster type. Yeah, that's, that seems to be the fit. I do think that he could become somebody who can be a man gap runner as well and like can win in a lot of different ways.

But we have, it's been inconsistent so far in that aspect. So we, I do think at the very least we know that he can get to the edge and create huge plays. So is he in the category where the style of a team's offense is going to impact your view of him early on? Yeah. Um, and also, I mean, the size is a, is a real concern. Like we don't know that he'll be anything more than, um, like a Matt Breda type or something

like that. I think there's a potential for him to be much more. Um, but yeah, if he's in a, if he lands in a spot where it's good draft capital and you can see a logical path to him getting double digit touches, he's going to be pushing up into that early round two range, potentially even back into round one if you just really, really want to get him. I think he's really pretty similar to Cam Scadaboo. He doesn't have this size that Scadaboo does, but like in a lot of ways his profile is really similar. I want to separate out these first three backs we've talked about here, Neil, Harvey, and Tutin. I'll just kind of have you rank these three guys in a couple of different categories.

Let's just start with what order would you put the three in? Are they kind of in the same tier in terms of how you view them going into the draft? Yeah, so I'm hesitant to even do rankings because I'm still really early in the analytics side of things because like honestly Heath, I can't stop freaking watching running back film. I've watched like 150 games and I keep watching more. People keep being like you need to watch this guy and then I watch him and he's awesome. And so I keep falling down the rabbit. Like I've got so many guys I still like need to need to get a more complete view of the class analytically, which is hilarious. Because like a couple of years ago, that was like, I never would have imagined that I would be here with the Phil things, but it's been really, really fun. Um, so, uh, my, the, I'll do my best here. And I think I would put Neil ahead of the other two.

Um, unless you are in a position where you are like really looking for something to just provide a, a lightning bolt to your team, like you, maybe you didn't perform well or you think you're a couple of years away or a year away or something like that. But if you hit on a few things, then it could like put you into contending. Um, in which case I would go after Harvey. Um, I think that he could be like the, you know, the guy who comes in and, and ha is a league winner for you right away. Um, and like drastically changes his value, his perceived dynasty value right away. I think I do put Tutin as the lowest. I think he's the least likely to get double digit touches per game.

But he definitely has really exciting upside as well. Well, that was kind of the way it seems to me. And I don't... Neil is more likely than the other two to have a starter's workload at some point, but the other two are more exciting than Neil. If they get the starter's workload, would you say that? Yeah, for sure. Yeah.

And the reason I was, I was like hesitant is like, I need, I want to look at running backs who profile similar to these guys and just form a more complete idea of like, how likely is it that Harvey does matter that he does get a chance, you know what I mean? When you look at other running backs who have profiled like, how likely is it that Harvey does matter, that he does get a chance, you know what I mean? When you look at other running backs, you would profile similarly, how likely is it that we do see him work his way into a role? And my guess is that we're going to find it's much more likely that someone like Devin Neal, who had a career like Devin Neal, gets that opportunity, even if their advanced metrics

don't jump off the page. I know you're early in the process, so we're gonna let you change your opinion in May if you want to, but as I look at these guys and we talk about, you know, the upside is maybe they get into early round two or late round one. That's right in the same area right now in rookie drafts where I'm seeing the top two or three tight ends

depending on how you rank those guys coming off of the board. Barring something surprising happening with these guys like sneaking into day two, you view these guys as behind Tyler Warren, behind Colston Loveland? Yeah, clearly. I'm higher on these tight ends in consensus than it sounds like. So those are more surefire first round picks. These are guys that are probably round two could fold around three or could creep up into the one two turns. Yeah. I suppose if we're talking tight end premium, like definitely. Yeah. Right. Well, and yeah,

that tight end premium, I think for sure everybody's got them in the top six, but they're right at that one two turn. If it's not tight end premium, let's get to our B 10 and the consensus rankings. You referenced him earlier. Dylan Sampson, what's the Evo? He is, he's exciting. So I mentioned, you know, the point per game averages. He was fifth in point per games as a starting running back. One of just five running backs who averaged above 20 points per game. And that I bring that up because he is younger than all of these running backs. Yeah. And so that that's pretty exciting. I don't know if he's going to be able to play on all three downs. But in 2024, he was used 118 times as a pass blocker the

only running back who has a higher single season number this is total so it is affected by the number of drop backs for the team but the quint Allen is the only one with a higher total number of pass blocking snaps in a season and his pressure rate allowed was pretty pretty, definitely below average, which is good. And so there's some path to him being somebody who can play in all three downs. He is a bit undersized for that type of running back, but he's over 200 pounds. So he's bigger than some of these other running backs we've seen recently who have been able to play more than expected on all three downs.

He can make people miss. He's got crazy burst. He can turn any play into a touchdown. He's really exciting. I alluded to it earlier, but the stats do back this up. The system that he played in affected things for him. So 54% of his runs in 2024 came versus light boxes, which means there's six or fewer defenders at the line of scrimmage. That was the highest rate in the class. For comparison on the low end, Caleb Johnson's rate was 23%. We talked about, you know, with Matt Waldman, the offense there at Iowa really affects things, way more under center running there. Samson ran almost entirely out of the shotgun. 41% was the average for 2025 prospects.

So he definitely benefited from the opposite design. Um, but I do think that like he's got the skillset to project it. You don't, I don't want to get like, go overboard with taking him like in the mid first round or anything like that. But if you can get him in a spot where you're comfortable, I think it's, it's a pretty comfortable project projection. Cause he's really, I mean, if you can get them in a spot where you're comfortable, I think it's, it's a pretty comfortable projection. Cause he's really, I mean, if you just watch him, he's really electric. So I don't give away too much of Matt Waldman's rookie scouting portfolio on

the show, cause I think you guys should all go buy it and read it because you'll get smarter about these backs. But I will say when you look at Waldman's rankings, Samson is ahead of everybody we've talked about so far. Samson is ahead of three of the guys that we talked about on Friday. If he does get that starter's workload in the right situation, do you think this is a guy who could be a top 15, top 20 dynasty running back? Yeah. Yeah. I think you can definitely make that projection with Samson. Um, in my head, he is ahead of all of these guys.

Um, I actually, I thought that the consensus was that he was ahead of Scataboo as well, um, but I haven't, I don't really keep up with where people are ranked honestly. Well, and like at this point, when you're talking about consensus and we don't have draft capital, um,. It is all really just like, I like this guy. So I think there's tears. Nobody's probably going to move ahead of Ashton Gentry at any point in this class. But when we talk about RB 7 through 12, I think one of these guys could jump into the top five and it wouldn't be that surprising. And one of these guys

could end up going undrafted and it might be disappointing, but it wouldn't be that surprising. And one of these guys could end up going undrafted and it might be disappointing, but it wouldn't be that surprising. I feel like we've been take pretty optimistic case for Samson other than the size, which is not like five, five, eight, 200, or just over 200. That's, that's big enough. What, what are the other concerns that you have for him? Uh, he goes down a little bit easier than I would like. Like I, he, it's sort of like Neil. I think his contact balance is better than Neil, but he doesn't run super strong. We don't have a ton of opportunities to have seen him on film, like have a lot of congestion and contact to deal with. It's often getting him out in space. But like, yeah, I do wonder if he were drafted

into a system or an offensive environment where the line is just getting blown up, if he just isn't able to do much. But I mean, there's very few running backs who are gonna be able to make much of a situation like that, honestly. I'm pretty excited about it. I don't see any like clear glaring weaknesses. We did have some somebody brought up the fumbling in the chat and I noticed in

Waldman's write up that his ball security was graded lower. Yeah, several of the players in this class and that again, that's another thing that fantasy managers probably just yawn when they get those negative two points. Coaches do seem to number and some coaches really, we remember what Bill Belichick used to be. So it's really just dependent on the coach and whether we're going to punish your guy right away. I think we saw Tyrone Tracy get punished for it for a little bit last year. Yeah, no, that could be a thing for sure. That's a good note. Let's take our second break and then we'll get to RB 11, RB 12 and Jacob's favorite sleepers.

RB 11 is a guy that honestly I've not thought a whole lot about so far this year. I'm not sure who the Ollie Gordon guy is that's moving him up in the rankings, but Ollie Gordon at Oklahoma state is the number 11 running back in the consensus rankings. What's your take on Gordon? I don't really understand the discrepancy between Ollie Gordon and Raheem Sanders when it comes to ranking. To me, they're sort of similar in that they were really successful, which would be fair. Gordon's season was bigger than Sanders.

Let FBS in rushing. Yeah. In 2023, Ollie Gordon went nuts. And that, you know, I don't mean to take anything away from but 2024 left us with some questions in the same way that like Sanders career kind of dwindled off for various reasons for Gordon. The reasons were pretty clear was that the team really struggled. They lost like I think it was like nine straight games or something to close out the season. They just couldn't get anything going.

And offensive line was a prop. There was just like clear penetration to the backfield often. It was clear that Gordon was the focal point of the offense and teams were able to slow him down. But yeah, I think there's enough optimism because of what he did in 2023 that it's like keeping him afloat in this range. I don't necessarily know if I'm going gonna be getting any Ollie Gordon at this price. So I've watched a lot of him over the last couple of days, too, because like when I initially

watched him, I really just, I didn't like it. I felt pretty underwhelmed, but I wanted to, because he's in this range with a lot of guys that I do really like, I wanted to just make sure that I felt good about that evaluation. Because sometimes it's like I watch him around, you know, RJ Harvey and Samson and people who I really like, and then he just like doesn't, you know, and it's not really fair to the guys. I wanted to give him a fair evaluation.

So here's what I think about Oleg Gordon. He, I said this on Twitter, it really cracks me up. He runs the way that I imagined Trevion Henderson might run before I got into this process I don't really pay I don't really have time to watch college football game season and so my process starts like January February somewhere in there I start really getting into these guys and When I say that it's that he has he's very light feet He is like one of the he's like running on his toes, which is hilarious because he's a huge guy. And then Henderson honestly kind of runs the way that I thought Gordon might run, where he's just like trying to really run people over, run through right through guys. And then that's sort of born on the stats for Gordon, he had the fourth lowest success rate on short yardage runs throughout his career, which definitely was influenced by the 2024 season

where teams are loading the box against them. But I also did feel like there were, even dating back to 2023, I watched a bunch of his film over the last few days. I did feel like there was a lack of power and leg drive in those situations. I also questioned his vision. Him and Devin Neal are two of the hardest ones for me, because I know a lot of people really, really think that they're just great, um,

players and then like almost like everything about their game is great. But when I watched these two, like I, I thought both of them had questionable vision. They're missing cutback lanes. They're overrunning things. And Gordon, it was not just the 2024 season. It feels like sometimes he commits to something and he just is missing where the run is flowing to naturally. And then you see some of these stats where he looks middling or even lower in the class. I don't know.

It makes sense that it kind of adds up. But it needs to be in a gap heavy scheme. I think that makes sense, especially with the way that he likes to run. Yeah. I need to do the research on schematic stuff to know for sure. I haven't looked into that for him. Um, I didn't want to say on the, on the, I, I threw a lot of cold water on Gordon, but on the positive side, he was on the field threw a lot of cold water on Gordon, but on the positive side he was on the field for 80% of passing downs in 2023 only Laquint Allen had a higher

single season rate from running backs in this class. So the potential for him to play a three down role is legitimately there. I a couple days ago sent out a tweet where I tried to group the running back class into tiers categorically, not based off of like overall talent or anything like that. Um, and there was a sub tier to like three down skill sets that I called, maybe we can run an offense through this running back. It was Quinshaw and Judkins, Damien Martinez, and Ollie Gordon. I think that that, you know, matters. Like if you, if a team just

decides to turn him into Najee Harris or whatever, which he kind of honestly reminds me of Najee Harris in some ways, that's been somebody you can use for fantasy, even if he's not, if I don't think he's some elite vision, you know, contact balance guy. So I don't want to, I don't, there's no reason to overreact to my evaluation and, and think that he's not a good player because like, and if, and if an NFL team proves that they don't buy that, that's what matters. You mentioned Najee. I was kind of thinking as you were describing him and except for the tiptoes part, cause when I think of a tiptoe runner, I think of somebody that can't decide where they're going. It sounds more like he is a, I, the play is called to go to this hole. I am going to run to this hole.

Um, it sounds, but he's also really good in past protection. Is it a little bit like not Ezekiel Elliott last year, but maybe two or three years ago when Tony Paul was making all the big plays, but when they needed to go get three yards, you get the Zeke when you need a pass block, you put, put Zeke in the game. Um, something like that. You get the Zeke when you need a pass block. You put put Zeke in the game. Um, something like that. I don't think he's as decisive as Zeke though, or as powerful. I honestly think like what we saw last year with Najah Harris is kind of what I've felt that just, it just immediately reminded me of that.

I watched a weird amount of Najah Harris last year because it completely changed his running style and just started trying to create big plays a lot and like almost avoid contact, um, which is not what he was coming into the NFL for sure. Um, but that's sort of who all they Gordon reminds me of. Let's get to RB 12 and the 2025 running back class. It is DJ Giddens out of Kansas state. Is this a full-time player in the NFL?

Potentially. Yeah. Uh, he had a route rate of 55% or higher in two seasons. So he ran a route on over half, 55% or higher of the total drop-backs in two separate seasons. Devin Neal and LeQuint Allen are the only others in this class who did that. He was on the field for 67% of the team's passing snaps overall in games. He was a starter throughout his career. That's the highest rate in the class. So I definitely think he can play all three downs. I think he looks natural as a pass catcher. And I think he can create when he gets out in space. He was ninth in the class in career, avoided tackle rate. And he has speed. I does show up on

his film sometimes and it definitely showed up in his testing. He's got size as well. I don't think he plays quite to his size in terms of strength. But he he's an intriguing athlete and somebody who can play on all three downs. And so it's sort of like Devin Neal. If he if he lands in a spot where, you know, it looks like, you know, if he, I mean, if he lands in Denver, um, then like, yeah, that, that would be really exciting. Um, but I think anywhere that he lands, if the starter were to go down, then he could step in and potentially be a guy who are using for fantasy and it's like a top 12 top 15 running back and he's getting all the touches. So it's interesting. Usually I think when people ask, can he be a full-time player?

They're asking about the receiving work. I actually felt more confident in Giddens as a pass catcher. I wasn't sure he was going to be an early downs rusher. Yeah, I think that's fair. He did have a high success rate in short yardage situations. There wasn't quite as large of a sample size as somebody like Kim Scadaboo or whatever, or Heme Sanders. Those guys are really good in those situations over a larger sample size. But yeah, I liked what I saw from from Giddens as a runner. He wasn't like, I think, sort of like Gordon and Neil, like it was a bit underwhelming relative to guys like Harvey, who I fell in love with. But I do I do think that he has, he kind of reminds me of Tyrone Tracy. I think he could be like somebody who makes the most of the opportunities that he gets,

even if he's not creating a ton outside of that. Let's run through a couple of quick superlatives for RB seven through 12. And then I want to make sure we leave plenty of time for Jacob's favorite sleepers. Cause he said on Twitter that he had 15 of them. I think that was an exaggeration. I hope that was an exaggeration. Best of the six backs that we have talked about today, best receiving profile. Hmm. I think we have to give it to Giddens.

Receiving, do you mean like ability to overall contribute on passing downs or like ability to create as a receiver? Just let's just go with just let's forget about the blocking for a second. Let's just talk about as a receiver well then I think I might actually go to because like I Really think that like he could be somebody who can like get it get him in the screen game get him out on swing passes And he when he gets out in space it could just be a touchdown anytime Like he is he's really good at making one guy miss. Like I had said at the top, like second highest avoid attack or rate in the class.

Um, and then with a speed, like he can just be dangerous, man. Like most likely to produce a top 12 fantasy season. I'm going to go with Dylan Sampson. Okay. Just based on that, that was your favorite guy. And if everything goes right, he has the abilities to get that done. Most likely to go undrafted in a couple weeks. Oh gosh. You think all these guys are like, it's just not none of them are actually that

likely to go undrafted? Yeah, I would be really surprised if any of them go undrafted. Yeah, I would be really surprised if any of them go undrafted. I guess, I think it would be Olly Gordon or RJ Harvey. Right. If people just like think that, if like the 2024 season like really scares people off of Gordon or if the Harvey stuff just seems like it was a fluke, he's an older running back, if people just don't buy it.

Yeah, man, if any of these guys go and draft it, that'll really be a bummer. Well, that's the thing. We talked about six backs that we think could get drafted on the first two days. We've now talked about the consensus seven through 12, which are not Matt Waldman's seven through 12 by any stretch of the imagination.

They're not necessarily your seven through 12. We're getting ready to talk about some backs that you might like more than a couple of these guys. So are we just, I think that the stage is set for someone to not go get drafted or maybe, maybe it's just somebody we think is getting drafted on day two, falling to around six. Let's jump into Jacob Gibbs, favorite sleepers. You already gave us one name earlier in the show. We had the names from Matt Waldman,

obviously that were not ranked in one through six on Friday that are in his one through six. And again, if you didn't hear that show, go listen to it. But who were your other favorite sleepers in this class? Okay. Yeah, there's tons of them. Um, so I am going to limit it to, I'm just going to give you four more. I gave you standard will limit it to five. But first, I want to play a game. I'm going to name a running back prospect you tell me if you've ever heard the name before no shame. If this seems like it's going to be shame, but go ahead. If anything, the shame is mine for spending my time this way. So jacquery cross key merit I named at the top of show. Have you heard that one? I have now. Yeah, this is the first time. Okay. We're about kylan james

No, yeah. Yeah. I mean he barely played he literally never played more than 50% of the snaps in a game Um, but people are on twitter telling me to watch kylan james highlights and I did and they're pretty freaking cool He's like 220 pounds runs in the four fours, has a higher career avoided tackle rate than Ashwin Jain. He was fantastic. He was a part-time back at UNLV. He's really, we'll see if he gets drafted, but could be a good runner for sure. What about Kyle Manangai? I think is maybe how you say this name. I have definitely seen that name. Okay, yeah, I love this guy. He's really compact, really quick.

He has unbelievably small hands. I think he has the second smallest hands of any player to ever go into the combine, if I am remembering that correctly. But what I really love about him is his feet. He's just really, really shifty, really, really always like amazing contact balance. Um, he's really funny.

He might not get drafted, but he is. He's really fun to watch Montreal Johnson, Jr. From Florida. Yeah. Yes. Yes. Yeah. Yeah.

But I don't even know if he's going to get drafted. He ran a four, four. He's big. He ran a four, four. He was productive over 3000 career yards. Um, he's outside of the top 20 running backs in most rankings. Marcus yarns of the Delaware fighting blue hens. You know, thankfully the names you're going with now were surprisingly higher in Waldman's rankings than they were. Yeah. Okay.

If you'd given me this test a week and a half ago, before I had the RSP, the answer probably would have been no. Yeah, four, four, five receiving45 receiving upside, fighting blue hens, no G, fighting blue hens. Lan Larison, have you heard of Lan Larison? Somebody put his name in the chat two minutes before you said it, thank you Ricky. Yeah, people are putting his name in the chat. He has some, I'm seeing highlights on Twitter

where he's making one-handed catches, he's just blowing by guys, making mossing guys, I don't know, he's six one-handed catches. He's just blowing by guys, making mossing guys. I don't know. He's six foot receiving running back. I need to get to him, but he's another small school guy. I don't know. This class is just so fun. And I really hope that some of these guys do emerge

and end up mattering because it's been really fun digging into all of them. Okay. So my sleepers, Raheem Sanders at the top. Four more, Jadon Blue for Dectis 438 Speed. And it definitely shows up on film. He has a lot of rushing metrics that are intriguing and he can contribute as a receiver for sure.

So he's somebody who if he gets in, like a Miami situation, he honestly does kind of remind me of Devon Hinn, which is, you know, not a name that you should be comparing people to, but he's shifty and creative with the way that he manipulates space, which like if you are able to do that

and you're this fast, it could be really, really exciting. And he's legitimately like one of the better receiving profiles in the class. Okay, we need to talk about. That was Jade on blue. Yeah. And now let's talk about Jacori. Yeah, we need to talk about Jacori.

So trusted as a pass blocker, I mentioned that DJ Giddens had the second most, or no, it was Dylan Samson, had the second most single season pass blocking snaps. He tied with Jacori Krosky Merritt. And he, Jacory Krosky Merritt did that in 2023 at New Mexico. He then transferred to Arizona for 2024, went for a hundred yards and a touchdown in his first game and didn't play the rest of the season because of eligibility issues that dated back to 2019. I don't understand

how there could be confusion on that before the year and not, no one knew until like one game in its season, but that's what happened. So we didn't get to play the rest of the year. He's old. Um, but if you take his 2023 and 2024 data where he was playing at like bigger schools, um, it's elite. It's, it's really, really elite. Um, as a rusher and he can play on passing downs, 35% avoided tackle rate across those two seasons on 200 ish rush attempts. Um, really strong yards after the, um, after contact almost four yards after contact per rush. Um, and he.

Wasn't his light box face was one of the lowest rates in this prospect class. Um, he actually was like running into heavy boxes quite often, especially at New Mexico, because I think people knew he was the offense. He's got size, he's got speed. He is a name to know, and he's somebody I didn't even know until a couple weeks ago, but then the people on X who are even sicker than I am

about this stuff are like, you need to watch him, you need to watch the court cross-comerit. And I'm glad that they said that because he's awesome. So that's a pretty positive evaluation. What's the reason he's not higher in the consensus rankings or when people talk about running backs? I mean he might he might not get drafted and he's old and it's he's just easy he's just got lost in the shuffle. The sample size is small of him producing against high level competition.

But yeah, if you just look at like the intangibles, if you watch the film, like all of the boxes kind of are checked in terms of like what you might be looking for for a playmaking running back. We'll see if teams believe in it. We should have two more if my math is correct. Yes, you are. Jordan James, more efficient than Bucky Irving when they shared a backfield at Oregon, and then he went on to post 1,500 yards and 15 touchdowns after Bucky's departure. So he really benefited from the offensive system for sure.

Oregon's offense is just really conducive to success. At the running back position, he was one of the most sensitive to stacked boxes in the entire class in terms of how much stacked boxes negatively affected his rushing efficiency relative to his carries versus non-stacked boxes. So I don't want to get carried away with his rushing efficiency, because he was literally

the most efficient running back of any back that had over 100 carries in 2023. It definitely was impacted by Oregon's offense. But if you watch the film, he is just really good at like taking what's there. He it's funny, like he was a perfect like thunder to lightning compliment for Bucky Irving. Bucky is like kind of running into the R.J. Harvey stuff a little bit where he's getting a little carried away with it, you know, like trying to make something when maybe there's nothing there and sometimes it's a negative play. This guy is in no nonsense,

like not doing that at all, just like plugging the hole and doing it over and over and over. He sort of reminds me of Jordan Mason. I don't know if he maybe has as much like making this ability as Mason, but when I watched him, that's who I thought of. He's short, compact,

running back with a lot of power. Well, and we've seen Jordan Mason early on in his career did not do a whole lot as a pass catcher, showed a little bit more in that regard last year, but still only caught 11 passes in 12 games. And I think that's kind of the question that I have for James. Fundamentally, is he going to be okay as a pass catcher? I don't know. I didn't really see it on film and I don't think it's in his data really that much either. So my guess is he's just kind of an early down guy. Right. An early down guy and maybe probably a day three pick. But I would say like it

seems like some of the other guys we've talked about are less likely to get drafted than he is. Somebody's probably going to take a shot on Nick. Yeah. Yeah. Some people, I think it might've been Dane Brugler. I don't know for sure, but some people really like him. I think it might've been Dane Brugler had him as like a top five running back from this class. Like he's, I think definitely higher on the board than most of these guys. Right. And sleeper number four, five. Cory Kiner and I need now to apologize to Kyle Manon guy I think is who I attributed the

small hands to. It's it's actually this guy. There's so many running backs in this class and I get it mixed up. I'm pretty sure it's this guy who has small hands but awesome feet. Um this guy, Cory Kiner is really really fun to watch. Um amazing contact balance. Um quickness and ability to set things up and get people where they're just not in the right position to make the tackle and create yards after contact. That was really, really important for him at Cincinnati because the offense was often dysfunctional and so it was reliant on him to manipulate space and

he did it at a really high level I thought like where it's like he's sort of controlling what happens with like 22 guys on 21 other guys on the field in terms of the setting of the blocks and the defense with his movements and he has to do that because he's not very fast either I think you ran a four or five seven but he does it at a high high level. He's really intriguing to me. It's sort of like a Taj Brooks kind of profile except that he doesn't have the pass blocking and the ability to play on third downs. He seems like he's only an early down guy. So maybe like a Tyler Algier or something like that. It'll depend on where he gets drafted. But one difference between him and Algier is he has a much higher

avoided tackle rate. And I think that shows up in his lateral quickness is better than Algier, but he also has power. He's pretty big. We talked about nine running backs. I'm fairly extensively on Friday show. We just talked about 11 more. And I think Jacob said four other names when he was trying to play the late let's embarrass Heath game.

This is an incredibly deep running back class. As you can tell, we are very excited about it. Jacob Gibbs, thank you for your participation in both the running back preview part one and part two. Yeah, thank you for having me. I'm going to see the Royals today. Wanted to let you know that Heath, very excited for that. Just a great time to be alive. We got Royals baseball, we got NFL draft coming up. And you know what, I'm not going to apologize for the Let's Embarrass Heath game because Heath, before I jumped on this podcast, brought up the freaking 101 trade again. I traded away, I basically traded away Ashton

G&T for Dalton Kincaid without knowing it. It's in a league where you start too tight in, so Kincaid is much more valuable. But yeah, I messed up. I messed up big time. And now Heath is going to get Ashton G&T because of it, or maybe he's going to get Devon Achan for me. We'll see. And, and I, I just want you to know what a good friend I am because I, I'm not even going to correct you about the other player that was involved in that trade for Dalton Kincaid.

I'm just going to let you go back and look at it and ruminate on that until our rookie draft. He's Jacob Gibbs. I'm Heath Cummings. Thank you to Thomas Schaefer. Quick programming note, there will not be a show on Friday this week. I'm headed up to Memphis to do some work with St. Jude, get ready for the draft-a-thon and help us raise some money for them. We

will be back on Tuesday. We'll be starting with Wide Receiver Part 1 with the Couch Scouts, Wide Receiver 2. Part two is next Friday. We will talk to you on Tuesday.