Fantasy Football Today - FFT Dynasty - Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag with Heath Cummings and Ben Gretch! | 2024 Fantasy Football Advice (06/11 Dynasty Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 12, 2024

Heath Cummings and Ben Gretch team up to answer your dynasty fantasy football questions in this special mailbag episode. What to do with De'Von Achane? Who is more valuable Tank Dell or Trey McBride? ...How to value Theo Johnson with the Darren Waller retirement news? But first, grade-a-trade between Heath Cummings and Adam Aizer. Intro (0:00) Grade-the-Trade (1:45) 3 Questions (10:20) Aging Contender Rebuild (28:08) Tank Dell or Trey McBride? (31:42) 2nd Year Wideouts Challenging for #1 Targets (35:57) Superflex Rookie Conundrum (38:53) An EXTREMELY Balanced Trade (41:30) Win-Now Trade for Aging Assets (46:40) Rank Devonta Smith, Nico Collins, DK Metcalf and DJ Moore? (50:58) Theo Johnson Value Boost? (54:09) Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 It's hockey season, and you can get anything you need delivered with Uber Eats. Well, almost, almost anything. So no, you can't get an ice rink on Uber Eats. But iced tea, ice cream, or just plain old ice? Yes, we deliver those. Gold tenders, no. But chicken tenders, yes. Because those are groceries, and we deliver those too.
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Starting point is 00:01:16 Gretch is back. I thought that was going to be the most exciting thing about today's show and it's super exciting but right before the show happened adam azer and i made a trade in the baked burger dynasty league during the rookie draft and it was a pretty big trade and so we're going to have gretch break that trade down and we've got azer azer heard that and he's like well i've got to be there to defend myself then first and foremost ben gretch thank you for being here tell everybody like what's been going on in your world yeah i've just been writing the stealing signals newsletter it's a sub stack kind of a freemium model you can get the you could pay for the the all the stuff or you can get the
Starting point is 00:01:58 the free posts i try to make it valuable for the the free subscribers as well you can get my writing there at bengresh.substack.com i also started uh my own youtube page recently guys uh at stealing signals is the youtube page so go subscribe there if you want the the free youtube breakdown it's been doing a lot of best ball content over there so i was gonna say it's you're right in the thick of best ball summer right you just that's right tweet out that i'm going live and i'm going to make some picks and everybody wants to hear what you're doing we're going to talk about like that kind of i don't know the relationship between the guys we're targeting in best ball and how that's going to impact dynasty values over the next six to seven months but adam azar thank you for being here
Starting point is 00:02:42 thank you for sending like having reasonable trade discussions. I was on the clock. I'm just going to set the tone here for this trade, and then we'll get into it just right off the bat because we know that Azer's really busy. He can't be here for the whole show. He's got lots of other things to do. But I put in the league chat, 104 is available.
Starting point is 00:03:04 I'd really like to get some sort of QB in the deal. And listen, I'm not going to call anybody out, but I will say that the first two quarterbacks that I saw in trade offers were Kenny Pickett and Sam Darnold. I didn't get much better than that from Adam, but are you feeling good about trading for the 104? Yeah. I really wanted neighbors.
Starting point is 00:03:26 We're in a super flex dynasty league, and my best wide receivers are Stefan Diggs and Amari Cooper. I have Quentin Johnston, which looks maybe like a terrible pick that I made last year. I have Gabe Davis. So I don't think I can win without a stud wide receiver. And this was an amazing wide receiver draft. And I wanted neighbors.
Starting point is 00:03:50 I really don't think if I was at seven, I moved up to four. I don't think I would have been able to get Odunze at seven. That was the thing that was bothering me. If I stay at seven, can I get Odunze? I decided let's not even chance it. Odunze is about to go fifth, by the way, unless someone trades for the pick. The guy just said, I'm going to take him unless you make me a better offer. We have an untimed draft.
Starting point is 00:04:08 So yeah, I moved up. I gave up Trey McBride, 107, and Gardner Minshew to move up three spots and get neighbors. And I also got Heath's second round pick, which is 23rd overall, 211. So I gave up 107, McBride and Minshew for one Oh four and two 11. Heath needs Minshew. Cause he has Aiden O'Connell and he has Justin Fields and Ryan Tannehill. So, so he needs quarterbacks and he'll be in good position to get McCarthy or
Starting point is 00:04:39 may in a, at one Oh seven. I think this works out for both of us. I love Malik neighbors. I just think that eventually the giants are going to have a better quarterback. I'm not going to win the league this year. I'm setting up for 2025 or beyond. And I even think he could be good this year. And I just, I love the talent. I think we could have like a perennial pro bowl or there. And I really think you need one of those on your team at wide receiver, a young stud receiver to be good in dynasty. So I need, I had to gamble. I had to give up
Starting point is 00:05:09 McBride to do it. I mean, you really sold that well, like much, much, I didn't even know that you were going to tell the trade and you told the trade and you sold it so well. And so Ben, I, I actually sent you a rundown last night, but it was pretty late. So I don't know if you saw it. And it's, it's a a Dynasty Mailbag show today. We're answering everybody else's questions. But obviously, we're going to start with Adam and Heath's question, which is, grade the trade. We've got a trade here, and Adam gave some of the context. I do have Aiden O'Connell and not much else at quarterback, so I've got Gardner Minshew now.
Starting point is 00:05:41 I knew Adam had put out to the league a couple of days ago. He wanted to trade Trey McBride for a wide receiver. And he's obviously a Giants homer. So I knew Malik neighbors probably had more value to him than anyone else. But how do you view this trade? It's the 107, which based on what we know is probably going to turn into JJ McCarthy or Drake May and Trey McBride and Gardner Minshew for Malik neighbors in the late second I love the straight for both of you guys the chat saying that that he dominated this trade the two so first of all I want to ask this isn't a tight end premium league correct so I love I love Trey McBride and i did see the rundown and we have some other
Starting point is 00:06:25 questions about trey mcbride so we'll get a chance to talk about him the two things that i think are kind of underrated values in this trade are that i do think trey mcbride is like i'm higher than market on him i know a lot of people are really excited about him but i do think he's got a really good player there but i think the move up from 107 to 104 you know on its face doesn't seem like this this massive move up i think it's about a tip like a round one value type of move up i think the top four players in superflex this year are already worth like two firsts i mean you have caleb williams you have jayden daniels as as a potentially massive point scoring player the way that he can can run and put up value as a runner but also was a really good passer I think he's the
Starting point is 00:07:12 best pick in in redraft right now and early like best ball and stuff and is there's some concern about the hits he takes and all those things but he has the potential to be a massive fantasy quarterback and then Marvin Harrison and Malik neighbors, as much as I love a dunes, I have really come around to these two guys being elite profiles, like two of the better receiver profiles that we've seen in maybe the last decade. And so the top four for me are like already worth two firsts.
Starting point is 00:07:39 If you wanted to trade into it this year, any of them could be the one-on-one in a given year. The one Oh seven is still a really strong pick. There's a lot of great players you can get there, i do think it's a it's a tear break and a significant one so i actually am buying azer's propaganda here that he had to pay to get up a tear break to get neighbors i i i love mcbride but i do think this is a pretty balanced trade on both sides the the drop from 104 to 107 is significant and you and azer had to give up something to get you to do that and he did and you get you know some interesting
Starting point is 00:08:12 pieces on the other side probably lean heath side still but i don't i don't think this is any kind of a steal or anything it's a good fair trade for both sides jerry in the chat asked i wonder how much heath won that based off his own trade chart. We're not going to talk about that. When I'm negotiating, I try to get people to forget that I put out a trade chart because I don't want them to see my values. I generally try to go to Dynasty League football and use their trade chart because there are different values in trade charts. I've been pretty open and honest about mine. I put mine together based on my own values.
Starting point is 00:08:49 We know that you would have Minshew as like worth three first round picks probably, I guess. It's a super flex league, so maybe four. But no, I have to account for the fact that the Raiders might make a mistake and start Aiden O'Connell for a couple of weeks. But no, I think you have to know when you're looking at a trade chart, what is this trade chart trying to tell me? Is it trying to tell me what the average person thinks is value or what the person who put the trade chart together is value? Dave and I have talked about this a lot. His trade chart and redraft is more based upon like what is a fair trade according to the consensus
Starting point is 00:09:27 with dave's opinion factored in mine is more like here's how i value these guys use a different trade chart take advantage of that if you want i think you see it in the nfl though too right you know you every team's needs are different because the trade chart doesn't have any context it doesn't factor in that i have jake fergus Someone said, who is Azar's other tight end? So it's not like I'm terrible at tight end. I also think the really interesting part of this was, could I get a doomsday? I think the answer is going to be no to that, but I could have just gotten Bowers. I could have traded McBride for a veteran wide receiver or something like that and just sat there and taken Brock Bowers. But I just look, fantasy's fun, right? Obviously I'm a Giants fan, but I think I would have done this no matter what.
Starting point is 00:10:08 I love Malik neighbors. I just love him. And I really wanted him on my team. That's a fantasy building block. I simply do not have enough fantasy building blocks on this team to win. And my wide receivers in another year, again, Diggs and Cooper, Gabe Davis, Quentin Johnston, i could have terrible wide receivers i need something to anchor that position uh so i had i felt like i had to go get neighbors
Starting point is 00:10:29 and i'll start jake ferguson every week and i'll be fine with it here's the strange thing about that trade that i'm not sure you account for i also love travis kelsey um but again who knows who knows how much longer travis kelsey is an elite tight end hopefully this year i just have two elite tight ends. And Joe kind of makes your point. I don't hate it at all. Trade charts don't account for getting guys you are excited about. That's worth something.
Starting point is 00:10:52 It's worth more, I think, in a dynasty league. And this is kind of maybe we'll transition into, Ben, I know you're producing a lot of best ball content. We're going to start with three questions. Not really start now, but we do have three questions for our guest as always. And I think a lot of times the best ball conversation turns into like, what makes the most mathematical sense? What's my exposure to this guy and this guy and this guy? And in a dynasty league, like you're going to have these guys maybe for the next, you might have them leave neighbors for the next 12 years.
Starting point is 00:11:24 Like go get your guys i think applies a little bit more but they're not completely unrelated like i would guess that you think the guys you're especially the younger guys you're drafting the most of in best ball this summer are going to increase their dynasty value in the next six or seven months because they're going to smash according to what the current expectations are so who is the one player that you see increasing their dynasty value the most in the next six or seven months yeah i think that's a great point i think we get the the allure of dynasty is this you know 12 year player but we we you trade value is a thing you do want to think about it i think we would be well served to think about it on a smaller timeline and and value some of those redraft type mentalities
Starting point is 00:12:12 where if a guy's going to be really really good in 2024 he's going to gain value right like in most cases um so the answer to this in terms of like the the player that's going to increase the most the the biggest thing is is it's young players malik neighbors could be the answer to this in terms of the player that's going to increase the most, the biggest thing is it's young players. Malik Nabors could be the answer to this, but he's already really highly valued, frankly. I wrote a piece at my sub stack right after the draft a couple weeks back about hammering the rookie running back group in all formats. I think that applies in the late rounds in best ball
Starting point is 00:12:41 because a lot of these rookie running backs, more so than other years, landed in the spots where they look like the pretty clear number two and have some immediate opportunity to and some in some cases are behind inefficient starters that they could potentially pass in year one so there's some real value there i would i mean as a group i would name some of those guys bucky irving marshawn lloyd jaylen right um there's some second year guys that throw in there. Kendra Miller is still lingering, had a really injury prone first year, but he's a 21 year old rookie, young guy, Chase Brown.
Starting point is 00:13:11 But the one name I'm going to say in terms of increasing dynasty value from this rookie class, because for me, this question becomes who's the most undervalued rookie. I'm going to say Xavier Worthy. I'm going to lean on your chief's phantom here. This is a guy who already had an incredible age-adjusted uh production profile before running the fastest 40 time in combine history i think a lot of people think he's just a speedster but prior to putting up that speed he was already a really strong prospect they went ahead and traded up in the first round to get him i know there's a lot of
Starting point is 00:13:42 people that are scared off of you know what happened with sky more all the hype on mike miko hardman years ago but this is a better prospect than those guys that the chiefs acknowledge was a better prospect they needed to go up in the first round to get him they obviously the rishi rice stuff we don't know what's going to happen whether he might potentially get suspended what's going to happen there they had already brought in marquise brown but marquise brown on a one-year deal and it was pretty clear they didn't want to put a ton of um long-term money into into that and they've kind of been clear that their team building idea with with mahomes being paid a pretty penny is that they want to spend their money on defense on offensive line and mahomes can carry bad receivers and and that's been proven they just won the super bowl last year with a legitimately bad receiving core.
Starting point is 00:14:28 But Xavier Worthy is the guy they wanted to go out and get in the first round. I don't think he's going to have massive competition going into the next couple years. If he's at all efficient or good this year, he's going to gain. I mean, he's kind of undervalued. People are worried about the weight and stuff, but he's going to gain a lot of value quick because he's a young, productive player in a passing game that we know is going to throw a ton and is going to be efficient. He's tied to Patrick Mahomes. He could really, really shoot up in Dynasty.
Starting point is 00:14:50 So, Adam, I think that's one of the first responses that we got in our league chats to your trade-up for neighbors is you must really like J. Daniel Doans. And obviously you don't. But were the being attached to to my homes you could see that breakout in year one do you worry at all about what neighbor's value does if the giants offense is just just remains terrible this year and he has an 800 yard receiving season what do you mean am i worried about what he's going to be or like what his trade value will be what his dynasty value
Starting point is 00:15:24 will be after a year like that not really because you're's going to be or like what his trade value will be? What his dynasty value will be after a year like that? Not really because you're just going to keep him forever? No, I'm not really worried. I mean, I think if they have another bad season, they will have a new quarterback one way or another in 2025. And I've gone through this, you know, you sort of disagree with me, but I looked at some rookie receivers who had terrible quarterback situations and still had huge seasons like Mike Evans,
Starting point is 00:15:47 like when Cam Newton and the other guy. Calvin Benjamin. Calvin Benjamin, yep. I mean, you could say OBJ. Like Eli Manning wasn't crushing prior to that, and OBJ was this LSU guy that a lot of people are comparing neighbors to, right? That's a great one. Yeah, that was one of the ones on the list too.
Starting point is 00:16:05 So I actually think neighbors himself will probably give Daniel Jones career numbers. I'm just not really worried about it. It's hard for me to find a great wide receiver. I guess DJ Moore. DJ Moore is probably a great wide receiver who did not have a great fantasy career because quarterbacks held him back.
Starting point is 00:16:22 But I think if you're a truly great receiver, you'll find your way. think the terry mcclure would be the other answer to that we did have somebody else responded that the answer was going to be hollywood brown and i do think that's an interesting bet to make between worthy and brown because they do have a lot some similar skill sets and i could see either one of them being the biggest riser in terms of dynasty over the next six to seven months there's been a player ben that i've seen adam and i have talked a lot about him we've talked a lot on fft about him and there's a lot of discussion about him in best ball he's also a second year running back and it's devon achian and i think you could make the people are making the argument either that he's way
Starting point is 00:17:07 overvalued because he's never going to be a full-time running back the dolphins don't view him like that and he can't handle the workload anyway or he's way undervalued because anybody who's that efficient gets more work and i don't care about injuries where are you at on hn right now in terms of dynasty i'm you know i'm, I'm probably, I'm at least holding, I'm probably trying to buy the fear about the injuries and those things, because in reality, I think every running back has those concerns. I mean, like, yes, his size is an issue, but there are bigger backs that have had their careers derail.
Starting point is 00:17:43 I mean, like JK Dobbins was never a guy that was undersized, and we've just seen major injury after major injury derail a career of a guy who I think would have been a really good running back in the NFL if he could have stayed healthy. And that's just one of the realities of the position, and it's tough. The big thing around A-chan going into year two is the situation. This offense does an incredible job of funneling volume to the players that they want to funnel it to.
Starting point is 00:18:05 Mike McDaniel intentionally gets the ball to the players he wants. Tyreek Hill had the highest targets per outrun of any player in the NFL last year by a lot. And Jalen Waddell was still like seventh in that same offense that Tyreek Hill was dominating that much. He was higher than most number ones, the top two wide receivers getting all of the work. And then he did the same at running back. And the, the guy who really dominated last year was Raheem Mostert led the NFL with 21 touchdowns, but he's now like an eighth round pick in best ball. So something's not right.
Starting point is 00:18:36 Either Raheem Mostert's a massive value because he led the NFL in touchdowns last year. You can get him in the eighth round or the concern from the, the drafting community that he's 31 years old and isn't going to be able to continue to do this forever is fair and if he does fall off i mean h and had 11 touchdowns alongside that last year they had a game where they both scored four touchdowns in the same game last year if h and is able to stay healthy there's 32 touchdowns for their their lead two backs last year on the table
Starting point is 00:19:06 and the market isn't in on most right so that this is an offense you want to be buying you want to be a part of and what HN showed us is that he can be efficient in it but also that that McDaniel likes him and is going to use him I'm a little concerned about the health long term all those things but I think he has a chance to just be a truly special running back scorer based on the way that this offense is so concentrated with everything. He could have a 20-plus touchdown season fairly easily. Right now, there's all these concerns about health and everything, but if he stays healthy and has that kind of year,
Starting point is 00:19:37 I mean, I was just talking about this. Even with Dynasty, it is a shorter year-to-year thing. People won't talk about his injury history next offseason if he stays healthy for 17 games and has that kind of year, they'll just say, this guy's incredible. We have to be in on him for the rest of his career. I think you can't be selling him just based on those kinds of concerns in this situation.
Starting point is 00:19:56 So, Adam, we've got a little game that we play on this show sometimes. It's really creative. I tried to channel my inner Adam Azer when I came up with it, and it's called too high, too low, or just right. And so the rules every time like me. No, there's no there's no rules. So Ben said he's holding or buying a chance. Current price, according to June ADP on Dynasty League Football is RB9.
Starting point is 00:20:26 The three backs ahead of him are Travis Etienne, Kyron Williams, and Saquon Barkley. The three right behind him are Ken Walker, Jonathan Brooks, and Isaiah Pacheco. Is HN too high, too low, or just right? I'm going to say he's too low. I would rather have him than Saquon Barkley in Dynasty. Who are the others? Who are you saying? The three behind him were Walker, Brooks, and Pacheco.
Starting point is 00:20:51 Yeah, I definitely would rather have him in Dynasty than those guys. I think I'd rather have Brooks. I know that. Okay, Barkley's too high. I don't know that A-chan is too low, but Barkley's too high because I think I maybe would rather have Pacheco. No. I'm kind of in on A-chan.
Starting point is 00:21:10 A-chan's so good, and McDaniel is so good, as Ben was saying. So I think RB7 or 8. I think he's a little too low. I agree McDaniel's so good for what we like. I think there's a really underrated chance that McDaniel's got one year left as the coach of the Dolphins. Wow. Where do i think there's a really underrated chance that mcdaniel's got one year left as the coach of the dolphins wow where do you think he's going i think i think if they don't
Starting point is 00:21:31 make the playoffs this year he could be he's on the hot seat oh interesting yeah no i think that's a hot take they haven't they haven't won a playoff game in 24 years you see that he sets the meeting times now for like 7 24 10 24 because he's reminding everyone we haven't won a playoff game in 24 years there's pressure in that i i think you're right i don't know no very few coaches have like total job security but right i believe in hn and i definitely think you should go ahead of barkley but you had etn a few spots ahead of him that's a guy who missed his entire rookie season to a foot injury last year the efficiency really waned down the stretch the team is talking about pulling his workload back and using more of tank bigsby
Starting point is 00:22:09 who was so bad that durnas johnson passed him as the backup but they're basically like we can't give etn full work and if you do look at the best ball like adp hn goes at the two three turn etn goes in the fourth right he's older he's a 25 year old back h hands a 22 year old that makes no like that doesn't surprise me at all because if you're taught like if i'm looking at this for my best ball lens and especially like i need to finish first out of four million people well h hands obviously like you don't care if he gets hurt you don't care if you finish 2372nd like you're trying to build the and i think a lot of people playing dynasty or redraft are a little bit more risk averse than people
Starting point is 00:22:52 playing in in best ball tournaments but even if they were priced the same etn's 25 hans 22 so why would he be ahead of him in dynasty if the redraft price was the same you would think hn would be ahead and etn has the injury history to his path i mean he missed a whole season with a foot thing that could come back he had to have i believe the screw put in i think the only thing in etn's favor would be that we've seen that his team will give him the ball 20 times a game i i think there's a real like i think atn could play 17 games this year and just average like 10 to 12 touches. And his yards per carry falls to five or five and a half, like we'd expect.
Starting point is 00:23:29 And maybe he scores once every 20 touches instead of every 10. Now, like, there's a lot of room. It's just like, that's, that's why I wanted to talk about him because he could be the number two running back in dynasty six months from now and he might not be a top 30 guy if he suffers a major injury or jalen wright and raheem mostard have more touches than he does so last last question this is the most difficult one i don't know why i did this to you but i think it's a really interesting question and we just talked about trey mcbride who are your top five dynasty tight ends so i've been really into the elite tight end group this year. I've made the case that the top seven in redraft are stronger profiles than we've ever seen in fantasy football.
Starting point is 00:24:12 I don't think we've ever been this deep at the top. Pitts and Kincaid are in that top seven, and I think people would question their talent level, but I think they both have really positive situational things moving in the direction. The other five are fantastic players.'m really into mcbride so my top two is very clearly laporta and mcbride yeah i would actually put brock bowers three already because he is that good of a prospect if you go look at how much better and how much more productive he was than ad mitchell when mitchell was there then jermaine burton when burton was there um then lad mcconkey mcconkey was there the whole time all those guys got drafted reasonably high
Starting point is 00:24:51 in in the nfl draft and bowers crushed them and on top of that they were giving powers rushing attempts he has 10 career carries in college for over a hundred yards and like multiple or maybe it was 20 career carries i can't remember but i think he's like five rushing tvs or something in college i mean he has all this like rushing production for a tight end which is just crazy just more like his college team wanted the ball in his hands because he's that elite so anyway i would have him three i think it's tricky after that point and the reason i started by talking about the redraft elite tight ends is obviously i'm still in on kelsey andrews and kittle but i think with these young profiles and the element of, you know, how value gains can happen for young players, as opposed to like Kelsey and Kittle and Andrews just have to be good to not lose value, to maintain value in
Starting point is 00:25:38 dynasty. Um, I would put probably pits and Kincaid as the next two in my, in my top five. Cause I do think both those guys are really well positioned to have strong seasons in 2024. But that's like a tier down, and I think you can make the case for the veterans that are proven producers to go ahead of those guys. Yeah, I've got Laporta McBride at one and two, and in that tier, like very, very close. And then Andrews, Kincaid, Pitts, and Bowers are my next four. Very, very close in that tier, like very, very close. And then Andrews, Kincaid, Pitts, and Bowers are my next four.
Starting point is 00:26:07 Very, very close in a tier. But Bowers is actually six for me, Adam. You made a wow face because you couldn't imagine not having Mark Andrews as a top five dynasty. Is that right? No, I'm wowing at my own rankings, which I just didn't know about this, right?
Starting point is 00:26:24 So I was just doing this. So I went Laporta. I don't know why I feel this way. I put Kincaid too. And then I put Bowers, then McBride, and then Andrews, Pitts. I had Pitts six. Why do I like Kincaid more than McBride, guys? Bowers is the question.
Starting point is 00:26:41 This is why we just made this trade. I know. I'm not as high on Mc mcbride as you guys are but the thing is like why am i taking mcbride over kincaid in redraft they their redraft and dynasty values should be pretty similar right they are the same age yeah i mean yeah the big bride's going into his third year, Kincaid into his second. But still, if I like Kincaid better in – this is the thing. If I like Kincaid better in Dynasty, why don't I like him better in Redraft? Maybe I should.
Starting point is 00:27:15 Maybe there's really no big difference there. But I think Marvin Harrison is a huge hit on McBride's value, basically. I don't see that right now for kincaid so anything i would think the case for kincaid might be easier in redraft than it is in dynasty because this might be the one year that he gets without any good wide receivers around me around him like he might just be force-fed targets because they don't have a better option but adam thank you for being here. You're actually here 10 minutes longer than I expected for you to be here,
Starting point is 00:27:47 but I really appreciate it. We're going to take a short break. When we come back, Ben Gretsch and I are going to get to your Dynasty questions. It's hockey season, and you can get anything you need delivered with Uber Eats.
Starting point is 00:27:58 Well, almost, almost anything. So no, you can't get an ice rink on Uber Eats. But iced tea, ice cream, or just plain old ice? Yes, we deliver those. Gold tenders, no. But chicken tenders, yes. Because those are groceries, and we deliver those too. Along with your favorite restaurant food, alcohol, and other everyday essentials. Order Uber Eats now. For alcohol, you must be legal drinking age. Please enjoy responsibly. Product availability varies by region. See app for details. Metrolinks and Crosslinks are reminding everyone to be careful as Eglinton Crosstown LRT train testing is in progress.
Starting point is 00:28:34 Please be alert as trains can pass at any time on the tracks. Remember to follow all traffic signals. Be careful along our tracks and only make left turns where it's safe to do so. Be alert, be aware, and stay safe. What a great time for sports right now. Like watching that, and I know if you're listening to the podcast, you didn't see the YouTube commercial, but we've got some Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese coming up on Sunday. I was watching the Florida Panthers win game two last night. Celtics Mavs game three on Wednesday.
Starting point is 00:29:08 I always do. Like when I think about you, Ben and watching sports, like I'm, I had, I slept in this morning because I stayed up watching a hockey game that was probably over at like six 30 your time. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:29:23 Yeah. I mean, it's fantastic. We, we, we, the west coast uh uh living is the way to do it for watching games but yeah you're mentioning all those sports i mean there's we have like uh the cricket the u.s cricket team is doing awesome in the cricket world cup right now i mean there's a lot of uh a lot of stuff going on right now yeah you're gonna get crickets from me on that i've not i've not jumped on that craze
Starting point is 00:29:45 quite yet but i have seen people tweeting about it and at some point i'll probably fall down the rabbit hole and actually learn something about that game because i know absolutely nothing let's get to your questions which hopefully i know a little bit more about sean asks as a team who was a contender and is now aging off into a rebuild, what are your best suggestions in this process? I think it's a really interesting question that there's a lot of different views, but there's really two main views. One is hold on until midseason and then trade whoever didn't get hurt, who haven't lost all their value.
Starting point is 00:30:20 And one is get out as early as you can, finish first or last. What are your, what are your thoughts on that process, Ben? I'm closer to the second one. And I think the biggest mistake that I've made in this situation in the past is trying to get what I think is like fair market value. I think my biggest piece of advice is be willing to take what feels like even bad value to you just to get younger. Cause those, you know, if you're just selling off a veteran for a third round pick, those third round picks can can hit i was just talking about some rookie running backs that i really like that are going in third round in in a lot of these rookie drafts and you can gain value you're not going to gain value from the aging assets the bottom line is they have
Starting point is 00:30:57 like i just said this with those tight ends they have to be good just to maintain value they don't shoot up in value at this stage everyone knows how how good Travis Kelsey is. He's just losing value even when he has good seasons because he's getting older each season. So those expiring assets don't do you any good when you're trying to rebuild. You really need to lean into the youth and the rebuild. And I think you need to sell off everything you can for whatever you can try to compile a ton of picks and let quantity be your friend and hope that you hit on some pieces that then gain a lot of value and start to rebuild the value on your roster i think that's exactly where i am like the one exception might be if i can see that it's time but i won it all last year and i will push in
Starting point is 00:31:37 to try to try i think that's what it's all about right is winning multiple years um but i think a funny story you're playing for free that year, you know? Right, exactly. Exactly. Our 14-team YOLO Dynasty League that we talk about a lot on this show, I traded Derrick Henry to Chris, I think three years ago or two and a half years ago
Starting point is 00:31:57 for a first and a second. And everybody killed me because it wasn't enough. And I just tanked hard for two years in that league and now i've got arguably the best team in the league and we get into the rookie draft and i made a trade with chris and actually took derrick henry back and he didn't get near as much for him and i got a couple other veterans as a part of the deal and everybody killed chris because he didn't get
Starting point is 00:32:21 enough for those veterans but i think that's like what you what what the whatever the value is is what somebody in your league will pay for them right and every week that you start derrick henry or on a lower level raheem mostert or davante adams like is a week that their value might go to zero it might just completely disappear and more than likely more likely than not it's at least going down so i i agree like and even if you if you're not really contending the other way i think you're you're gonna go there with that sentence is every week you're playing them is is weakening your draft position for the next year i mean there's an element of what good's it doing you to finish sixth or seventh if those guys are good for you that week they're not losing value great but they are also just making it so you can't get the 101 which like come next draft season you'd prefer to
Starting point is 00:33:12 be at the 101 or 102 because that can be a massive value gain we're just talking about this year the top four are all worth multiple first most seasons um azer had to give up trammick bride to move up from 107 to 104 like you want to be in the 104 so you can get trey mcbride just to move back to the 107 right like that's yeah that's helpful so question number two and it's a betraying a bright bright question danny asks who is more valuable tank dell or trey mcbride and i am unreasonably high on both of these guys so you're going to have to to tell us what the answer is here, Ben Grinch. Well, I mean, and that's the thing I'm definitely ahead of market on both as well. I think you look at Dell and it look at the team building stuff. Again, they know they're in a rookie QB contract window and have a stud rookie QB. So you need to push forward. So they go and trade for Stefan
Starting point is 00:33:59 Diggs, but they make it a one-year deal, which I think tells you that when they have to pay Stroud, they know they can't pay all the receivers as well. We were just talking about this with the Chiefs. So Diggs is a luxury while you're underpaying CJ Stroud relative to his market value. When they extend him, they've already extended Nico. It's going to be Nico and Dell. I think they're telling you that. These young guys are going to be with Stroud for a long time, and you have to love that for Tank Dell because he was a very efficient rookie, and C.J. Stroud looks like an absolute superstar. Having said
Starting point is 00:34:32 that, I think I'm taking McBride. I think there's some concern about McBride's rough first season, and then he also wasn't playing immediately last year. They were still playing Ertz over him a little bit, but he comes out in the second half of the year and looks like peak Gronk to me,
Starting point is 00:34:48 watching the games. I write them up and stealing signals. He was on guardable. He was a mismatch in every play. He was more physical than every DB after the catch. Cause he's a tight end that can get down field. And that's all in his profile. He was a really good producer in college. We thought he would be be a good tight end the only concern is he didn't hit right away
Starting point is 00:35:09 but i think we we speak both sides of our mouths because we talk all the time about tight ends have a hard time hitting as rookies and we don't want to play him and redraft as much and then when one breaks out in year two a young prospect who in year two has a two plus yards per route run. He was better on a per route run basis than Laporta and basically across the board, better in targets per route run, better in yards per route run. He was better in yards per target in a worse passing environment, I would argue. Azar made the point about Marvin Harrison. I actually think Marvin Harrison is a good thing for McBride because I think he's going to be the clear top two and I think he's going to draw some coverage good thing for McBride because I think he's going to be the clear top two.
Starting point is 00:35:45 And I think he's going to draw some coverage away and allow McBride to operate underneath. Laporta is the one that I think is dealing with a lot more target competition. But Laporta is such a clear hit as a rookie. I think he still has to be your tight end one. But you and I just agreed in the last segment that we would have these guys pretty close in the same tier. And I think McBride is right there with laporta is the case that i'm making and i think maybe in redraft i think in dynasty i would have laporta because i feel more confident in his floor and that he's going to be a really good player because he came out and hit right away as a rookie in redraft this season sets up for mcbride to be the really big volume guy and the
Starting point is 00:36:22 biggest ceiling at the position i think i would rank m McBride tight end one in redraft this year. And so for dynasty, the impact of that is if he has the year, I think he's going to have, if he has a 1300 yard tight end season, that's up there with the best tight end seasons of all time with Kelsey's best seasons and Kittle's best seasons, which I think is on the table for McBride this year, then he's going to gain even more value. And so I, yeah, I got to go McBride over Dell. But I like both these guys a ton. It's a tough question. I do have McBride just ahead of Dell.
Starting point is 00:36:50 I also, in my projections, have Kelsey, McBride, and Andrews all within a point and a half of each other. I've actually got Laporta fourth in the projections. And I think what – like I've heard people talking about the Patriots offense and how we are going to get more tight end screens for hunter henry and that was the thing that i i'm not sure people noticed as much last year like the cardinals default dump off was dump it off to trey mcbride uh more so than it was dump it off to a running back and that comes from the same like that's thatanski-Browns offense that's been 25% to tight ends year over year over year,
Starting point is 00:37:29 as long as Deshaun Watson's not playing quarterback. So I do think that his role, like I think he's going to see a 20% to 25% target share, even if Harrison is able to earn 25% to 30% as we expect that he will. So I agree with you. I don't think that hurts him. Let's talk about a couple of second year wide receivers.
Starting point is 00:37:45 Loophead asks, do you think JSN and flowers can challenge to be the number one target getters on their team target? I don't know if this was necessarily a dynasty question, but I think it's, I mean, it's still a worthwhile dynasty question either way this year or in the future.
Starting point is 00:38:03 Do you still have hope that either one of these guys can be a true number one wide receiver i do i think i think both of them are going to move that direction i would say flowers for sure because i think that a little low-key concern for me about andrews because the todd monken offense last year seemed to be a little bit more wide receiver heavy andrews played out of the slot more than any other year of his career by a pretty pretty healthy chunk his a dot fell and his targets per out run fell he was basically doing a lot more just like slot curls and stuff and that old greg roman offense we would get those seam routes and he'd have the high a dot those spike plays split the safeties and cover two we didn't get as much of that from andrews last year now the the offset of it was that the Ravens still,
Starting point is 00:38:46 the Ravens dropped back more. So he ran more routes. He was worse per route, but he ran a lot more routes. And I think that's fine for Andrews at the tight end position. But because of that texture of the offense, that little shift with the new coordinator, I think Flowers can certainly contend with Andrews
Starting point is 00:39:01 to sort of lead the team in volume. Jason's a little trickier. I do think he'll cut into the big two more under Ryan Grubb. I'm a UW guy. I got the helmet in the background. He was the UW offensive coordinator last year. The way I would describe the UW offense last year is it was a high, like very multiple tons of motion, tons of different formations, tons of misdirection. and it led to a lot of spread where the ball would go a lot of different directions i think we'll see it a lot more spread in grubbs offense than it was in waldron's offense last year i think we'll you know dk metcalf
Starting point is 00:39:35 and tyler lockett are really good players but i do think jsn is going to be cutting into that more for a long time in the seattle offense dk metcalf and tyler lockett there was no third target getter that would get more than like 70 targets on the offense. Last year, Jason was the first one in like four or five years. I think since DK Metcalf was drafted, actually that any player had more than 70 targets. I think you're going to see it spread more. I don't know if he'll, if Jason will be the number one, but you'll see it there for him to be a part of the big three. I I've been more concerned relative to where they were ranked last year about JSN than I am Flowers. And I would prefer Flowers and Dynasty over JSN
Starting point is 00:40:12 now. It seems like everybody kind of dropped both of them and I just didn't drop Flowers that much. So I think I'm with you on that. I do think Flowers chances are better. Both of them still have some hope. I was hoping that the Seahawks would just trade Tyler Lockett to the Chiefs in the offseason, but they don't ever want to let go of Tyler Lockett. They are definitely the team that is not going to go into the rebuild. We're just going to start the veterans until they have no value at all. Let's talk about Chuck and a super flex rookie draft.
Starting point is 00:40:41 And I think this question is pretty easy, but we want to answer it for him would you take he has picks 3 12 and 15 in a 12 team super flex rookie draft would you take jayden daniels and best available with the next two picks or would you take neighbors and try to double up on nicks and pennix he has kirk cousins daniel j, and Justin Fields. So no real security there at quarterback, but some reasons for hope, at least with two of those guys. I'm pretty clearly taking Daniels over neighbors without this context. But in this context, it's a pretty easy click for me. Yeah, I think that's the way I would lean. I will say that i i do really like
Starting point is 00:41:25 bo nicks and what he's gonna have and a fit with him with sean payton and the way payton likes to run his scheme i think you know payton likes to throw a lot underneath and use the short passing game as an extension of the run game nicks was very good at that broke the ncaa pass uh completion percentage record last year with a low a dot and that's what he's been hammered for is like, oh, he's too conservative. But that's what Peyton wants him to do. Yes, I think he's going to be a really good fit there. So I think you could argue if you can get Knicks there and you're sure you can get Knicks there, that neighbors and Knicks is a pretty good one to that could be comparable to Daniels
Starting point is 00:42:00 and the receiver you get there. But I think I'd still go Daniels because I think there's a possibility you could even get Xavier Worthy at 12 in some leagues depending on you know how people are going to play the back end of the first round and a lot of the leagues i'm in that are a little bit more analyst focused i think uh worthy typically goes at least by like 10 and so you're probably not going to get him at 12 but if you can get daniels and then like a worthy i mean you're in an incredible spot but again to your point the the QB situation on this team is so desperate that it probably is Daniels regardless. And the other reason it's Daniels is I don't think there's any guarantee.
Starting point is 00:42:32 Like, I'm in this rookie draft right now, and I have the seventh pick. And if you told me I could trade back, and I hope nobody's listening within the league, but if you told me that I could trade back from seven, which is probably going to be May or McCarthy, and get to 12 and add like what that value is worth. And Nick's was definitely going to be there at 12. I would do that. I don't have as big a gap between May and Nick's as, as a lot of people do. It's a, it's a gap. I definitely rather have May, but there's no guarantee if that team at nine or 10 or 11, once a quarterback, they're taking Bo Nix or they might take Pennix.
Starting point is 00:43:09 I've seen him go ahead of Nix in some drafts. So I would definitely go take Daniels, get your quarterback. This next trade, I really haven't considered which side that I like. I hope that you have a little bit. But the more important thing was one of the guys i really wanted to talk about so steve sent us an email and he was looking at a trade where he would send mark andrews giovante williams and a 2025 second that's andrews giovante and a 2025 second for david nojoku johan dotson rashad white and a 2025 first now we don't know how good either one of these teams are so let's just speculate mid picks for both but it's andrews giovante and a second next year for njoku dotson
Starting point is 00:43:53 white and a first next year which side are you on for that trade and the the guy i want you to kind of focus on is how you're feeling about giovante williams because he is somebody that i've traded for in a couple of dynasty leagues and seem to be more optimistic than the general community i'm drafting a ton of him and i think he's an incredible fit for what sean payton wants to do the the broncos led the nfl in in running back targets last year that's again it's the sean payton staple i did have questions going into last year about whether that had more to do with drew breeze or sean payton because it was always breeze. But if you did that with Russell Wilson,
Starting point is 00:44:27 we have no more questions. Exactly right. Exactly right. That was never Russell Wilson's game. And when you get Russell Wilson, a Russell Wilson offense to lead the NFL and running back targets, and then you draft Bo Nix, whose whole thing is he's willing to take because Nix wasn't bad when he
Starting point is 00:44:44 pushed the ball down the field in fact he was actually efficient down the field as well but he just didn't try to push as much as other qb's will he was more willing to take the high percentage underneath throw if you go look at like the pff stats big time throws and turnover worthy plays nix had a lot lower big time throws a rate of big time throws than most of the other top prospects but he also had a astronomically low five turnover worthy plays all season those two things are going to come together like michael pennix led uh i think all of college football and big time throws but also had a lot more turnover worthy plays because of that aggression it's going
Starting point is 00:45:19 to lead to some turnover worthy plays nicks is comfort level as a quarterback you can you can call him a check down artist if you want, but he's very efficient at it. And he's going to take the high percentage throw as opposed to pushing it into coverage. And that's what Sean Payton wants him to do. The running backs in Denver, not only do I expect them to potentially lead the league again,
Starting point is 00:45:38 I think there's a possibility of like, they led the league with like, I think 153 targets last year. I think the Denver running backs could have about 200 targets targets this year i think they could go way away from everyone else and just be so much receiving value that it's so so valuable at the same time i think i would actually take the other side of this trade whether it's rashad white or the or the list the um the the listener also said that they could potentially get Jalen Wright instead of White. I would take White, but Jalen Wright's, I think, a really interesting piece to grab if you're in a huge rebuild.
Starting point is 00:46:13 If Mostert does fall off, Wright could really gain value. He's one of those guys that could gain the most value in the next six to seven months. But the biggest thing for me is going from a 2025 second to a 2025 first could be massive those first round picks the top six or so prospects in every class are are worth a ton i don't think the drop off from andrews to and joku is that massive anymore andrew's getting up there in age and the offense not really being built around tight ends anymore is at least a little of a concern for me and joku had his career high targets per outrun yards per outrun season last year a little of a concern for me. And Joku had his career high targets per outrun, yards per outrun season last year.
Starting point is 00:46:47 A lot of the short dump offs that you just talked about from those Stefanski offenses we saw. A lot of that was with Joe Flacco, but I think you can be a little bit interested in Joku in this stage of his career. So it's, yeah, I mean, it's really, it's Andrews and Williams, who I like both of more than in Joku and White,
Starting point is 00:47:04 but then you get to go from a second round pick to a first round pick it's a very close deal johan dotson's in there as well i think he's probably not a huge piece but i kind of like getting that first round pick for these small step downs at tight end and running back i could understand seeing the other side of that as well well this like we're we're pretty much in lockstep on everything you said i i was while you were talking putting this into my trade chart and it came out at 43 points for both teams like literally a dead even trade that but that's again assuming a mid first and assuming a mid second if you think that you are giving up an early second and you're getting a late first, there's no chance I'd do this deal. If you think the opposite, then I would definitely do this
Starting point is 00:47:52 deal. So you kind of, and it's hard to guess on that. You might be wrong, but I probably, I probably wouldn't do this because I'm a little bit more excited about Andrews than you are. I'm a little bit more concerned about Watson and Joku, but it's a completely and entirely fair trade. And if you like it, do it. Let's take one more break. And we've got a few more questions from the listeners. With Smartwater's pure, crisp taste, there's nothing to overthink. So while you may be spiraling over double texting your crush, whether your skincare routine is working because you look the same or is doing nothing because
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Starting point is 00:48:57 a light beer, they had to choose great taste or 90 calories per can. They chose both because they knew the best part of beer is the beer. Your game time tastes like Miller time. Learn more at MillerLite.ca. Must be legal drinking age. Now this next trade is exactly the type of trade that I like to see. It's one team going all in. It's another team that's rebuilding. I have not put it in the trade chart. I'll do that while you're breaking it down and see if it's one team going all in. It's another team that's rebuilding. I have not put it
Starting point is 00:49:25 in the trade chart. I'll do that while you're breaking it down and see if it's actually a good trade. But this is how I like to see trades get done. The contender in this deal, it's an email from Stan, is receiving Christian McCaffrey, Derek Henry, Aaron Jones, and Stefan Diggs. That's CMC, Henry, Jones, and Dgs go win a championship the rebuilder gets kyron williams tank dell 110 and a second next year so you know you're getting i i don't know i like my first thought on this deal is if i'm making this trade i would hope that i've got somebody else that wants kyron williams um because i would much rather be making this trade i would hope that i've got somebody else that wants kyron williams um because i would much rather be making this trade getting another pick in place of that or getting a wide receiver
Starting point is 00:50:11 in place of that i don't want to acquire running backs when i'm rebuilding especially not fifth round running backs but that aside how do how do you feel about this trade for both parties well they're also sending three aging running backs, right? Christian McCaffrey is the youngest player they're sending. Derek Henry and Diggs are both on the wrong side of 30. Aaron Jones is 29. McCaffrey is 28. I think if you're a rebuilder, this is exactly the kind of trade that I want you to make.
Starting point is 00:50:40 I was talking about this earlier in the show where I want you to get as young as you possibly can and take what you can get out of it you get a 110 this year a second next you get tank dell i agree with you the chiron's probably not the right piece for a rebuilder but it's a lot younger of a running back and an easier one to move on his own sometimes it's really hard to move like a derrick henry on his own or an aaron jones on his own but when you package it like this you can send a lot of these guys and get reasonable value back. But it also accomplishes like four goals in once because I think you should be trying to trade all of these guys,
Starting point is 00:51:10 including Christian McCaffrey. If you're a rebuilder, you don't really have the need for him. He's the one for the contender that I think has the longest lifespan still coming. Like I think Christian McCaffrey can be very good for a few more years. I think that's true of Stefan Diggsgs also actually henry and jones are two that we could just see go to zero
Starting point is 00:51:29 this year right i mean it's it's a scary proposition and dynasty to be acquiring 29 30 year old running backs although i mean if anybody's gonna buck that trend i think derrick henry's one of those guys like he's a he's a unique physical type of player. Those types of players can sometimes play longer than you would expect. They're the outliers, right? So I don't, I don't really hate this trade from the contender side, but I do love it from the rebuilder side.
Starting point is 00:51:56 I think you're, you're getting so many pieces that should only hold or gain value. The contender side is getting a lot of pieces that should only hold or lose value and so there's a there's you know a lot of risk associated with that if they do go in the championship it'll be worth it but three running backs three aging running backs as the core of this trade at the same time they didn't give up an insane amount the 110 in a second next year is in a ton of draft capital it's tank dell and and chiron otherwise and so i mean i think it's a you know it's a reasonable you get cmc in the deal for the contender right like it's a reasonable
Starting point is 00:52:29 go win now trade but i love it from the rebuilders perspective this is the type of deal you should be trying to make you should be sending off your aging pieces and getting what you can in return yeah i'd probably go a plus for the rebuilder b minus for the contender and one thing I talk about a lot is if I'm going to trade, I told you I just traded for Derek Henry a month ago, and Devontae Adams was in that deal. I traded for a couple of old players, but I felt like I got a discount. And I think if you're trading for veterans in May or June, or really even July, I need to get a discount.
Starting point is 00:53:03 If we get to October and these guys are all still healthy, then I'd probably feel a little better about it because their odds of being healthy when I actually need them are significantly higher. So I don't think you got a discount from the contender's point of view. I think you kind of paid full price. But still, if I'm trying to win a championship, I would much rather have the four players you got than what you gave up so it's not a loss it's just not as big a win as it was for the rebuilder we've got a question from i it took me forever to figure out what this twitter handle was and now i love it it's mvp arsb um which is outstanding like especially if he goes
Starting point is 00:53:43 out and you know breaks a couple records and wins an mvp although i don't think they allow wide receivers to do that how would you rank davante smith nico collins dk metcalf and dj moore in dynasty it's davante smith nico collins dk metcalf and dj moore i think i'm probably lower than consensus on at least two of these guys, maybe three of them. How would you rank these four? I think Nico would be first for me fairly clearly after the huge contract. He had a three plus yards per out run. Anything over two plus is a really, really strong season.
Starting point is 00:54:17 Three plus last year with Stroud and Stroud's rookie year. I'm a big time Stroud believer. I've seen some stuff this, I mean, everyone is, but I've seen some stuff this off season that's like, well, maybe we're getting a little ahead of ourselves, putting him in the top five quarterbacks. I will put him in the top five quarterbacks right now. Like, I think he's that good. He was that good as a rookie. I think he's going to be a superstar. I mean, I just don't think there's really any doubt. He was so fantastic last year as a rookie. You don't transition that well the nfl game unless you are that good and so
Starting point is 00:54:46 nico being tied to him for so long is just really really promising and so he would be the very clear one for me um i mean not like i wouldn't give up you know massive massively more i would definitely rank him first the next two for me would be devonta smith and dj moore in some order and then metcalf would be last because as i said when we talked about se Seattle a little bit ago I do think it's going to be a little more spread I think we're going to be looking at less as the clear number one in that offense a year from now you look at like redraft ADP right now Metcalf still going in like the third round and a lot of these uh early best ball drafts JSN and Tyler Lockett are going much much later I don't think that gap is right for the way that seattle is going to actually play
Starting point is 00:55:25 things and i think that's going to trickle down to dynasty values by next year um so yeah meccaf would be the low end for me devonta smith dj more sort of in the middle like both those guys probably would lean devonta for youth um and dj more has a little bit more target competition in his own right but uh yeah that nico would be the clear one like after clear last for me so i didn't want to tell you the guys that i knew i was lower on but i it's the guys i'm lower than you on as well it's nico and it's dj moore um i i'm a little worried like what if keenan allen matters this year and romo dunzey is good and so next year we've got dj moore coming off of a wide receiver three finish in fantasy and he's 28 years old um i i could see it this year being kind of a disaster for his value
Starting point is 00:56:12 i have davante smith who i know i'm higher on than everybody else he's still a top 15 dynasty wide receiver for me i have him first and then dk and nico are very very close right around wide receiver 20 for both those guys and then i've got dj more as the clear fourth option but you know i've been wrong about dj more before we all remember that so maybe i will be yeah we all everybody had like as the way his career has gone if you've never been wrong about dj more than than you should like probably be making a lot more money than this michael asks we'll finish up with one more tight end question and this is a guy i liked before the draft theo johnson a fantastic athlete if you're one of those guys that for
Starting point is 00:56:57 rookie tight ends all you think is matters is athleticism you gotta love theo johnson what do you think of theo johnson's value with the darren waller retirement news i think it's kind of a scratch off you know i i you just said it really well he's an incredibly athletic player and there are there is a lot of data that shows that the best tight ends in fantasy are super athletic that doesn't have to work both directions though there's a lot of super athletic tight ends that weren't good in in fantasy you know it's just it's a it's a thing we like to see and it is a positive but you also need to see a player who has receiving ability and i think that's one of the big elements in fantasy
Starting point is 00:57:36 football that people they love to think about opportunity but don't necessarily think about the skill side of it enough it is a skill to earn volume it is a skill to be productive in almost every case the guys that end up being really good at the nfl level were productive in college on some level theo johnson played four years and his career season highs over his career were 34 receptions and 341 receiving yards he never had a 350 receiving yard 500 receiving yard season like i was talking about brock bowers he came in as a freshman and had 800 receiving yards with three future nfl draft picks at wide receiver if you're that athletic and you can't translate it into a lot of production at the college level
Starting point is 00:58:19 it's hard to be super productive i mean super you know enthusiastic that that's going to translate at the nfl level having said that tight end is a position that i think can get scheme touches i think this is the kind of guy that i would say i feel with a lot of confidence won't be an elite tight end ever but there are tight ends that can be productive enough to matter at a position with a low floor if everything is sort of schemed out for them and the and the past game is good if i'm in on theo johnson i'm actually like thinking that malik neighbors is a stud and is elevating the giants past game is making daniel jones better is making things work for brian dable and then theo johnson's kind of being brought along as that pretty good tight end it i guess would remind me a little bit of jake
Starting point is 00:59:05 ferguson i guess like the way cd lamb took it to a next level last year and then ferguson was good but ferguson's not an elite talent either um if neighbors is that type of hit as a rookie and i think he has the potential to be there's going to be room he's going to draw coverage he's going to shift the way the defenses play this team there's's going to be room for Theo Johnson to have some splash plays and things like that. But, I mean, I think it's hard to get too excited about a player who had so little production in college, even one as athletic as him, because the question just has to be,
Starting point is 00:59:35 why didn't you use athleticism to produce more at the lower level? Yeah, he's my tight end four in this class right now. Would prefer Bowers, Ben Sinnott, and Jatavian Sanders. I do think, like, we had a Chigokonkwo moment where his value increased. And I've got him on a couple of dynasty benches still. Where his value really increased because of really not that much production.
Starting point is 00:59:58 Just a couple of good games and some really cool-looking plays. I could see Theo Johnson having a moment like that to where I'm pretty satisfied using a third round rookie pick on him and thinking I might be able to make a profit halfway through this year based on a couple of good games because of that athletic profile. But I agree with you. I don't think he's ever going to be like a,
Starting point is 01:00:20 could he have a top 12 tight end season? Absolutely. Is he going to do that three or four years? Probably not. Ben, I really appreciate you coming on today. Always enjoy talking to you. Tell everybody one more time where they can find you. Yeah, the newsletter is bengretsch.substack.com.
Starting point is 01:00:38 The YouTube channel is youtube.com slash at symbol stealing signals. Go subscribe. Ste uh stealing bananas podcast with sean siegel the ship chasing podcast with pete overset and pat corain um yeah i'm around you'll find me on twitter at yards per gretch uh i'll be tweeting out all these types of things that that i'm doing so um yeah that's it. And we do have a second Dynasty show this week on Friday at 11 a.m. Eastern. We'll have McNamara Dynasty on. Some really good Dynasty thoughts
Starting point is 01:01:13 from him coming up on Friday. We will talk to you on Friday. Thank you.

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