Fantasy Football Today - FFT Dynasty: June Risers and Fallers with Ryan McDowell of DFL! (06/27 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 27, 2023

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Ryan McDowell joins the FFT Crew to discuss dynasty risers and fallers! But first, Dave Richard returns from his trip to Chicago, where he scouted the Bears mini camp. What did he see from Justin Fields and D.J. Moore? (0:50) Next, Ryan predicts which player's ADP will rise during training camp and gives his favorite rookie that the industry is too low on. (7:10) Finally, Ryan and Dave react to Heath's risers and fallers, including Alexander Mattison (29:45), Najee Harris (50:30), Tyreek Hill (55:30), and more!  Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Welcome to Dynasty Fantasy Football Today. Fantasy Football Today, Dynasty, you can say it in either order you want. I am your host, Heath Cummings. Joined today, Dave Richard, back from vacation. Dave, it's good to have you here. And a special guest, I didn't even let Dave talk because it's better to have him here, Ryan McDowell of Dynasty League. Ryan, how are you doing today? I'm doing well. We don't care how Dave is doing. It was all his fault that we're running late this morning. So we're just going to throw Dave under the bus from the start.

That's how it works usually. It was actually even a little bit of a dig for me to say back from vacation because Dave was actually working for a portion of the time that he was gone. So Dave, how was your trip? What did you learn? I learned that there's probably going to be only two good players on the Bears for fantasy purposes. Maybe another one or two

who can be mild contributors. It really will come down to who stays healthy at running back. I thought Justin Fields mostly looked good. There were inaccurate throws each of the three days of practice that I saw. But his, his technique,

his footwork looked great. And I think DJ Moore is going to be that dude for him. And I'm kind of, I don't do projections like you do Heath. I don't have, you know, specific numbers and all that. So I would kind of pivot here and say,

how many targets do you have? What type of target share do you have for DJ Moore? And then I'll tell you whether or not I agree or disagree with it based on what I saw in Chicago. Yeah, I've got him between 25 and 30 percent in terms of target share. I think he's going to be an the Bears and the Falcons to project a total number of pass attempts which makes it hard to project a total number of targets because like no one's saying either one of them is going to approach anything close to league median but they were so far below what everybody else does in terms of passing, they could throw the ball a hundred more times this year and still be

throwing the ball less often than anyone else. So 130, 140 targets for DJ more seems closer to a ceiling for me. Yeah. I was actually looking at some numbers earlier this week and realized that the bears were the only team last season who did not have a single receiver with a 100 yard game. So no 100 yard receiving games from the bears. They were the only team in the league to accomplish that. I guess we

could say, but you know, I mean the bears, at least they brought in DJ more, right. I mean, and that's, that's obviously a huge upgrade to that receiving core compared to the Falcons, who it really just feels like it's going to be the same exact thing we saw last year. And I know from a dynasty standpoint, we hate to think about that because we love Pitts, we love London, and it may be a repeat of 2022 coming up this year. Now, Dave, you think it's more likely the Bears are going to throw considerably more next year, right? Define considerably more. Well, still rank in the bottom five in pass attempts,

but throw 75 to 100 more passes. Yeah, I think that that's probably fair to say. I might amend that to say that they finish in the bottom 10 in pass attempts per game, not bottom five. I think that they could actually be a little bit better than that you know fields averaged almost 30 dropbacks a game last year and he just he he took off and scrambled whenever there was pressure i remember watching on sundays and then talking about it with you heath during the week about how he just as soon as there was any type of breakdown or his first read was covered boom he was running.

And that's really what made him great for fantasy. I talked with Luke Getzey about that, and Getzey said that the Bears, they don't want to force him to run less, but they think that all the alterations that they made to their offense this offseason will make him ultimately run less. Better protection from the offensive line. We'll see how that goes.

There were some moments in minicamp where that did not look good, and that's in minicamp where they're not actually hitting. And then just having DJ Moore there, better target, guy who can get open against anybody, against any scheme. That's going to help him throw more and scramble less. Really, the difference is scrambling less. They're going to call running plays for him. The dude is the second fastest guy I've ever seen in an nfl practice in my life uh there was a play

where he threw through like a 10 yard pass to robert tunyon it wasn't a big deal and then he sprinted about 50 yards into the end zone and it almost took my breath away how fast he was why was he sprinting after he threw the bears would be morons not to use that speed what why was he sprinting after he threw they were just changing directions for a drill but instead of him jogging like everybody else was you know offensive linemen you know huff and puff their way down to where it's supposed to be for the next drill he sprinted and my god he was fast so the bears would be nuts not to use him. Here's another fun fact, Heath. The Bears, or at least Luke Getze, did not know that Justin Fields was number one last year in red zone completion rate and red zone touchdown rate.

Had no idea. I think that's a great point that I try to bring up often when we start talking about some of these advanced stats that we use to determine whether someone's good. I think they're very, very helpful. But sometimes they get used to say he's going to play more because he was so good at this thing. And I want to say, does his coach even know about this stat? He did. Right?

He did know. He was like, wow, that's actually great. Right. He felt proud about it and of course i asked him you know that's scary though right i i think that i my opinion and just totally a guess is that that is more common than oh yeah than not i think over half of the coaches would probably have a similar reaction yeah well i mean, I mean, we've heard. Go ahead, Brian.

Sorry, Dave. I've heard some of our contemporaries in the industry, fantasy football writers. I won't drop names here. I don't know if this is public information, but they have been hired by teams as consultants. Guys we know, guys we interact with and follow on Twitter. And my first thought when I heard that was, you know, how does that happen? You know, no offense to us or to anybody else, but they're just fantasy football guys. But this is why, because some of the information that we use really on almost on a daily basis is almost

too in the weeds, even for these, for these NFL coaches, which it's wild to think about, but that's the reality. Well, that's why I think every team needs an analytics department, but they also probably more than that need a coach who's going to listen to the analytics department. Most of them have the analytics department now. Now, Ryan, we're going to spend most of this show talking about some June risers in my dynasty rankings. We're going to compare them to the ADP at Dynasty League Football, which I know you have a big part in putting together the data that goes into that with your mock drafts.

Can you tell the people just a little bit about Dynasty League Football and what you guys do over there, which is basically everything for dynasty managers? Yeah, that's really it. Everything dynasty focused. You know, we stick in our lane. We don't deal much with redraft or really any with redraft. If you play Dynasty fantasy football, we are the site for you. Tons of tools, obviously, articles.

I handle the ADP. I've been collecting monthly ADP now, even in season, for going on 10 years now, since 2014. So it's kind of crazy to think about that, but running mock drafts every single month to cultivate that ADP. And we have tools that use that ADP data. We've got our trade analyzer, which we're super proud of. Yeah, just really anything Dynasty, we've got you covered over at DLF. That's awesome.

Now, we'd like to start off with three questions for our guest, and you've seen these in advance, so hopefully you're ready. Who is the one non-rookie Dynasty manager we'll be talking about as a training camp riser in a couple of months you know this one almost feels like cheating actually because i look at the uh i look at the adp and this guy's just way too far down there based on what we saw at the end of last season i really like isaiah hodgins in uh in new york uh he's wide receiver 88 in our dlf dynasty Dynasty ADP right now. 209 overall. You look at the way he ended the season last year for the Giants. He was the wide receiver 20 over the last five weeks of the year. Gave us a wide receiver one game, three wide receiver two games. And yeah, they brought in some competition. Of course, Paris Campbell, they bring back Slayton. Wondell Robinson is still there.

So it's crowded. But Hodgins is a different type of receiver than the rest of those slot-only guys that they have in New York. So I really love the value that Isaiah Hodgins offers right now. Dave, there's no doubt that he's going to be right if Hodgins emerges from camp as one of the starting wide receivers for the Giants. I also think it's possible that he thought he was coming on with me and Azar or me and Dan because they're the only two guys

who ever talk about Isaiah Hodgins on this show. I'm really happy that I get to say now, having Isaiah Hodgins at wide receiver 67, that I am high on Isaiah Hodgins. Are you, Dave? I like the potential there. You know, Ryan didn't mention that Darren Waller was also added to the giants and

that's somebody that could take away some of that touchdown upside that helped make Isaiah Hodgins so great in the second half of last year. But you look at his profile and, and I think this is what Ryan was kind of angling toward when he talked about all those other receivers that the giants brought in that have always been like, or maybe they're kind of stereotyped as slot guys. Hodgins is not that. He's a perimeter receiver. And if they're thin on perimeter receivers, that makes a golden path for Hodgins to get playing time. And he knows what this offense is supposed to look like. He worked

with Dable on Buffalo, came through in a big way uh i would not be surprised if his adp goes up and i think that that's a good call i had five names written down i really tried to work hard to come up with guys that weren't second year players and uh three of them were hodgins is a great one i think he's he's a good i think that's a good call by ryan i think jerry probably has the right answer i just wrote about this in my running backs rankings update like we the joe mixon got that big downgrade because of his offseason, because of the way that the Bengals talked about him. But if we get to camp and Joe Mixon gets through camp and everybody realizes, oh, wait, he's still the RB1 with less competition than he had last year, he's going to be a big riser as well. I think I just bumped him up a little bit in my rankings this week. It's like every week we get closer, that's one less week that Joe Mixon could get cut or mess this up.

Okay, someone's starting a new Dynasty League tomorrow, Ryan. What is the one rule that you insist on? I'm going to cheat a little bit and assume this is a super flex Dynasty League. Hopefully, that's not the rule that we have to go with, but you know, anymore I'm I'm just locked in on auctions. I want, I want any new leagues I joined to be auction leagues, including future rookie auctions. You know, we, we, over the years have seen leagues start with an auction and auction dynasty

startup. And then in the years following, they go with a rookie draft. And that never made sense to me. I love rookie auctions as well. I'm doing some of those right now, actually. So that would be my rule. It's got to be an auction and auction everything. Well, Dave is your best friend now. I love it. I'm a big fan of auctions. I wonder how that dynamic could work in Dynasty if you set a cap. Like, what if we had a 500 free agent acquisition budget slash draft budget slash whatever else that you have to stay under over the course of your time as the manager of your fantasy team? Yeah. Okay. Yeah, I think there's a lot of ways to do it.

In the leagues, the auction leagues that I run, we essentially have a tiered set of money. So if you're the worst team in the league and you would earn what would typically be called the 101, you get this set amount of money. I think it's $300 or something like that. And it tears down. So if you win the league, you're getting $100 to spend on those incoming rookies.

So that's how we do it. Yeah, that's how it goes in our leagues. And then if you've got your 101, your 201, and your 301, that stacks. If you want to spread that out to get as many rookies as you can, go for it. If you want to spend it all on B. John Robinson, obviously you can do that as well. Okay, so what about just trying to keep it a little bit simpler than that, Ryan, and saying you've got $500 to spend any way you want on your dynasty team from the startup to the you know week 18 of the regular season yeah you have to stay under 500 if i win the league but my cap is at 499 i only have one

dollar to spend in the rookie only draft unless i cut some guys does does that sound fun does that sound challenging? Is that tough for a commissioner to do? I'm in one like that, except we've got about a four-month period in the offseason where the cap doesn't apply. So you have to get back under by a certain point, but it doesn't apply during the rookie draft. So you can make all your rookie picks,

you can go over the cap, and then when we get to August, there is a period where everybody has to cut, and then there's a free agent portion where people get to try to add the players that the good teams could no longer hold on to. Question number three here, Ryan. Who is the one rookie the fantasy community is still too low on? I'm like Dave on the earlier question. I've had trouble narrowing it down to just one.

I've got five names written down. If I am picking one, I'm going to go with our guy out west for the Rams, Puka Nakua. Seems like a lot of talk about him as everyone's favorite sleeper, but you check the ADP, he's still going 47 overall

in Superflex rookie drafts held on my fantasy league. So basically, he's a late fourth rounder. I would consider him two rounds earlier than that in that late second, early third round range. Really love the opportunity he's going to have out there. And really for him, it's going to come down to being able to stay healthy and stay on the field. That is an excellent transition, Ryan. You are a pro's pro. We'll move into the news and notes. And for that portion, Dave sent me an article from ESPN with notes on one surprise from

the offseason workouts on each team. Now, some of these guys aren't surprising names. Some of them are very surprising names. I won't mention which one, but one maybe that I hadn't even heard of before today. But Puka did make that list dave from los angeles rams and it sounds like he has a the potential possibility by the end of the year to possibly be the number two in that offense behind cooper cup how do you like him compared to van jefferson compared to tutu at well who we heard yesterday will have some sort of role on the team is there a chance that like

with the the weakness of this receiving core behind Cooper Cup that he could really become a difference maker this year? I don't know about a difference maker, Heath, but someone that could be a contributor along the lines of 10 to 13 PPR points per week. That'd be great. With some down weeks, he'll have some three for 30 type games. I could see that happening because there's an opportunity there. And it sounds like he's developing at a faster rate than your typical rookie wide receiver, specifically one that was drafted where he was drafted.

He's a name to keep an eye on for sure. Six, one, 206 pounds, you know, decent hand size, decent wingspan, not necessarily someone who's just going to like dominate with his size.

Right. And I don't know a whole lot else about him. This is one of the guys that kind of slipped through the cracks for me. Right. But we do know that the Rams, look, I think that Sean McVay is a pretty good evaluator. You're going to laugh at me for saying this, but a good evaluator of wide receiver talent.

And yes, they got Allen Robinson and he was a total dud last year and van jefferson and tutu atwell yeah and van i thought jefferson was a good prospect coming out he just hasn't really taken that next step opportunity could play a role remember robert woods was a nobody until he got to the rams cooper cup was a nobody until the rams drafted him um he's right he's in the right place heath right yeah i think so so the second name here ryan we'll go to you for this one it's it's a more prominent name maybe a first round pick in a lot of rookie drafts that are one qb devon a chain impressing at dolphins camp and uh may not be long before he has a prominent role according to this article yeah i think that's the expectation for dynasty leaguers,

is that A-Chain does have a prominent role in that offense really right away. And, you know, there's a lot of backs there in Miami. They had four guys last year, all were free agents, and they brought them all back. Of course, Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson, the ones we care the most about. But I don't think it's it would be a stretch to say A-Chain is the most talented of that group or the certainly the one with the most upside at this point in their respective careers I mean the question for him is

is still going to be that size probably something that you know, has talked about during his entire career, unless he totally makes us forget how, how little he is. I don't think we're ever going to see him as, as the lead guy, the primary ball carrier. That's, that's pretty obvious, I think. But that doesn't mean he can't have a role in a really good role for Miami and for fantasy teams. Okay, Dave, we do have to move through these quicker, so I'm just going to ask you on this one,

and we'll move to the next one. Yeah. Isaiah Pacheco, Devon A. Chain, Brian Robinson. Rank them in Dynasty. Oh, gosh. I think I'd have to take... I think the way you listed them is the way I would take them. Pacheco, A. Chain, and Robinson.

That's a good guess, because I've listed them in the way that I had them ranked, so we're all in agreement there. Dave, Traylon Burks getting more and more positive buzz. Ryan Tannehill was talking about how much different he looked. Burks has actually said that he is in better shape than he was last offseason. We remember he battled both conditioning and asthma stuff, it sounded like, but he is on the right track. And this is a guy I'm a lot higher on than the consensus ranking. I've got him at wide receiver 15. He's wide receiver 27 in consensus rankings. I'm not sure where he is in ADP, Ryan. You can

tell us that after this. But I think what he did at Arkansas, just dominating targets and yards and touchdowns on a run first team with a bad pass attack, he could do this year for the Titans. Yeah, I mean, you know, Burks, I think, gave us some reasons to be concerned about him in his rookie season. Of course, that started with those preseason reports and camp reports. His value has not wavered at all, really, though. You look at our current ADP at DLF, wide receiver 23, 44 overall.

That's in one quarterback league. So basically going to cost you a fourth rounder, maybe a fifth rounder in a dynasty startup right now. Still pretty expensive. I mean, he's going ahead of Jordan Addison, ahead of Terry McLaurin and Calvin Ridley and a lot of talented players. So Dynasty managers are certainly still holding Burks

in high regard with a lot of expectations. Do you hear any names there, Dave, that you would rather have over Traylon Burks in Dynasty? Give me the names one more time. Yeah, directly behind him, Addison,claurin hollywood brown ridley judy iuk i think it's the right range yeah it's kind of the range is good yeah i agree dave two running backs in the afc west who were not drafted in most rookie drafts, may have not, one of them maybe was a new name

for somebody on this show. Jaleel McLaughlin, an undrafted rookie who had 8,000 rushing yards in five years at Youngstown State. Yes, I just read that directly. And Derek Prince of the Chiefs. So McLaughlin in Denver. We'd heard a couple things about Prince

earlier in the offseason and how he was doing. Apparently, he really did well on passing downs at camp, which that's kind of all they do. You talked about that. There's not a lot of running downs that happen during OTAs. Are these guys that you're looking for on the waiver wire in deeper dynasty leagues? Absolutely, because they've got a chance to make the team. If you're a running back that makes a team in the NFL, and I'm not saying practice squad, it's got to be the active roster. You're not too far off from potentially making a difference there. So these are deep stash candidates in Dynasty for sure.

Okay, let's move on to the Packers. And again, Ryan, I'll give you a little bigger name. Romeo Dobbs was the training camp star last year year and a lot of that with Jordan Love. And apparently that connection with Jordan Love has really shown up in the offseason. Could he impact Christian Watson or can Christian Watson be what we're expecting and Dobbs still be someone who's interesting for fantasy? Yeah, I think they can coexist pretty well. I love Christian Watson. We've seen his value climb dramatically while Dobbs has kind of held steady or really gone the other way, probably as a result of obviously Aaron Rodgers leaving,

but also Watson's ascension. I mean, Dobbs could lead this team in targets while Watson is more of the big play touchdown threat. Dobbs could be almost the safety net, the reliable guy there. I think he's a great target late in drafts. Outstanding. Dave, another wide receiver you'll find late in drafts. You can even find him late in rookie drafts because of how much trouble he had staying healthy at Stanford. Michael Wilson apparently impressing at OTAs. And again, it's easier to stay healthy when nobody's tackling you. Hopefully he can stay healthy in the season. But the guys that are in front of him, Greg Dortch, Rondell Moore,

obviously some real concerns about the Marquise Browns had his own injury concerns. Is there a possibility that an opportunity opens up for Michael Wilson this year? And do you think long term he could have some staying power as maybe a number three fantasy wide receiver? Yes and yes, because I think this is going to be a lost year for the Cardinals. I don't think that's saying anything exciting. And like Isaiah Hodgins, who we talked about earlier in the show, this is a perimeter receiver, not somebody who's better known for working in the slot. They need some size in that offense.

They've got Trey McBride. I'm not expecting Zach Ertz to play again for Arizona, so I'm not counting him. Wilson's a big dude. And so if they can use him as a chain-moving third-down type of target, red zone type of target, that's somebody that can get some decent numbers this year. And as this offense kind of tilts toward the future, maybe eventually a new quarterback, certainly more help along the line on the O-line

and just in general in this offense, Wilson can be a factor. He can be a contributor for them. I'd take him ahead of those undrafted running backs that we talked about. Oh, yeah. And I think he should go in the early third in rookie drafts. I don't know where he's been going, Ryan, maybe late third or fourth,

but I think it's justifiable to take him in the early third. Yeah, I mean, he's a third rounder, and because he was not necessarily one of those players that we were really into pre-draft, that's why he's still you know that's why he's still available in the late third or in the fourth round of rookie drafts but uh you're absolutely right we have to factor in the draft capital and the opportunity that he's going to have there in arizona okay we're gonna talk some higher profile guys next when we get to my june risers

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Okay, I've got six guys here, Ryan, who were risers in my June rankings update. I just kind of want to talk about, first off, the reason why they're rising for me, where you guys show they are in terms of ADP, and then we can discuss if there's... I think there's only a couple, really, where there's a bigger gap. And one of them, like there was a gap of three spots, which at quarterback is kind of a big deal.

CJ Stroud, I had him at QB 13. He's at QB 11 now. It was a pretty good reminder for me with the way that the Houston Texans were raving about him at camp that this guy's a really good passer. I think maybe we focused so much on the fact that, no, he's not really that mobile. He's not going to run that much that we forgot about that. He was a prolific passer in college there. There's a window here that he has a Justin Herbert type entry into the NFL or becomes a 4,500 yard passer on a regular

basis. Where's he at on terms of, uh, ADP on your your site and and what do you think about it yeah i really like stroud as well uh he does seem it seems like he's gotten lost a little bit in the the bryce young and the anthony richardson uh talk that stroud has almost become an afterthought but if you've got that uh you know that middle mid-roundround, first-round pick in a super flex league, you're happy to get C.J. Stroud because he is in that low-end quarterback one range. Currently at DLF, he's the quarterback 14. I believe you said you had him at 11 moving up. So, you know, looking at the names ahead of him, Bryce Young, Kyler Murray,

maybe that's a guy that you've moved him ahead of potentially dac prescott is there at quarterback 11 so um you see some guys in that back-end quarterback one range where it wouldn't take much from from cj stroud or you know really honestly bryce young either to bump those young guys ahead of the veterans who we we suddenly have some questions about. So Dave, I can pretty well tell you without even looking at it, I do have it up here, but I can pretty well tell you the three names that are going to be, I would guess it's Bryce Young, it's Dak Prescott, and it's Deshaun Watson are the three guys that are ahead of him by ADP

that are behind him in my rankings. Can you see a path to him being better than those three guys? And how are you feeling about stroud as he heads into his first training camp i can see him being better than the veterans for sure um i he was my favorite quarterback in the draft um as a prospect i thought he was the best thrower um loved how he handled pressure and reading about him throwing with accuracy in minicamp, it felt good. A little bias there from me. We'll see if it holds up when the practices are live, though.

I should clarify. I said Bryce Young. I meant Kyler Murray. I saw this tiny little guy running around, and I got the names mixed up. Yeah, it wouldn't surprise me if he went ahead of Kyler Murray, too, just because Kyler's future is uncertain. Again, lost year for Arizona. At what point does he come back and play for the Cardinals this year? Right, and I think that's the other side of it,

especially in a super flex league. I'm pretty certain C.J. Stroud's going to be starting for the next three years. Dak Prescott's at the age where there could be a drop-off. He might be this good for the next 10 years, as some quarterbacks have been lately, or he could start to show signs of age any time in the next three years. Kyler Murray, there's a real question about what his next two to three years look like, especially this year. We don't know how much he's going to play.

And then Deshaun Watson, nobody talks about this ryan everybody's just we're gonna pretend like it didn't happen but he was one of the worst quarterbacks in the nfl last year what if he's just not what he was in 2018 2019 2020 yeah i mean we really i wouldn't say we are forgetting that. It's hard to forget, unfortunately, but I think top five status as he previously was, but certainly better than what we saw last year. But, you know, would it totally shock me if that's the new Deshaun Watson and he's just not a quarterback one anymore? I guess it wouldn't. Very fair comment from Kevin. Nobody talks about this equals a thing everyone talks about maybe i just did that let's move on to the running back risers one of these i

feel like it's obvious but i think we should at least talk about it with ryan alexander madison was my rb 46 is now rb 28 huge increase. He's going to be the starting running back at the beginning of this year, at least. I don't know how much of a feature back he's been. Ryan, I've been talking since it happened. If I can get a first-round pick for Alexander Madison, and everybody says, well, you can't do that. Well, people are in some leagues.

If I can get a first-round pick for him, I'm doing it quickly. But he's also one of the biggest winners of the summer. Where's ADP at on him, and where are you at on him? Yeah, it's tough to battle that because you are excited to see what he can do in that full-time role. But at the same time, this is like a screaming sell high opportunity, it feels like. And you're right, people are getting first round picks. One of my favorite tools at DLF is what we call the Trade Finder. You can plug in a name, plug in your league settings,

and see actual trades that are taking place. And if you plug in Alexander Madison, you'll see a ton of trades for future first-round picks. So, yes, you can get a first-rounder for him for sure. His ADP currently honestly still feels pretty low. He is RB29 in Dynasty, and that sets a new high mark for him, really, by a long way. Last month, he was running back 37. That was his new high mark.

So I think we're going to begin collecting that July ADP very soon here in the coming days, and we're going to see him with a huge jump. I mean, you look at some of the names ahead of him, David Montgomery, Isaiah Pacheco, Dalvin Cook himself. I think we could easily see Madison slide into that low-end RB2 range, 23, 24, somewhere like that is where I think he'll probably settle in. Yeah, Dave, he mentioned David Montgomery, and I definitely want to talk about Madison versus Montgomery. I also think Madison versus DeAndre Swift is pretty interesting. Madison versus maybe Rashad White. Do you feel good getting Madison into that top 24, maybe top 20 range in Dynasty, or are you on the sell-high train as well? I'm on the sell-high train well i'm on the sell high train

because i'm not sure he's got more than one good year in him you know he if if he can explode in this with this opportunity then maybe he plays three more years as the vikings lead running back but if he's the guy that we've seen i think he can help fantasy managers out as an RB2 this year, and then the Vikings kind of move on from him. And thinking about Montgomery, he's kind of at the point where he's a year-to-year proposition. Swift is almost certainly a year-to-year proposition. Rashad White might not be. White might be able to be in the mix for Tampa Bay

for at least two more seasons. And if he ends up seeing a big boost in efficiency, then we're talking about him. He's 24. We could see him playing three, four more years. So taking White ahead of Madison makes sense to me. Ryan, the second running back riser really makes me want to throw up a little bit because I feel like I'm just caving in to everybody else. And I do think it's getting more and more likely that he's going to have more work than what I was expecting this year. But Ramondre Stephenson, I had him at RB19. I've moved him up to RB14, a borderline number one running back now. I don't like trusting Bill Belichick to do the same thing with his running backs he did the year before.

Yes, that's part of it. I also think that there are things. Jacob Gibbs had a Twitter thread yesterday or the day before about Stevenson in short yardage and inside the five, and he was bad last year. You look at Stevenson depending, and this is one pass catching, like if you talk to the yards per route run crowd, Ramondre Stevenson was awesome as a pass catcher. You look at the yards per target, he was one of the worst in the NFL. The difference in my mind between those two things is target per route run. And I think that matters a lot at wide receiver and tight end because those guys earn targets. It seems to me that running back targets are generally more schemed up or quarterback dependent, and they've changed their offensive coordinator. So I'm concerned he doesn't have near as many targets as he did last year either, but I've moved him out to RB 14. Where's he at in ADP and do you share any of my

concerns? Yeah, I certainly do. He's, he's RB 14 for us as well. Uh, based on the ADP, he's been in that range somewhere between, uh, 12 and really, for the past six or eight months since we kind of saw that breakout season from him last year. But the concerns are there. I mean, a lot of what he accomplished last year was volume-based. You know, Damian Harris was out for much of the year, in and out of the lineup. And Stevenson was kind of the only option outside of a couple rookies that they added. And now at least the early camp talk or mini camp talk is that maybe these former rookies, Pierre Strong, most notably,

are going to eat into that work, especially as a pass catcher. So I would not be surprised at all if Stevenson saw a pretty significant dip, at least in his pass catching work. Dave, is Ramondre Stevenson going to be in a Dynasty Risers and Dynasty Fallers column for me in the year 2023? Yes. Yes, he will be.

I agree. You just know that the Patriots want to use multiple running backs. The only times when Belichick hasn't done that is when he's found a running back that he's just so sure can handle a three-down roll. Even Corey Dillon, I think, lost a little bit of work when he was the Patriots guy, and he had a ton of great numbers. You weren't complaining if you had Corey Dillon on your fantasy team

when he was with the Patriots. I don't know if Ramondre Stevenson is Corey Dillon he averaged fewer PPR points per game than his season-long average when he had six games without Damian Harris last year he was at 14.3 his season average was 14.7 I think anybody that's realistic with Ramondre and says okay this is a guy who could be right around, easy number, 14 PPR points per game, they'll feel good about drafting him. It doesn't mean you reach for him, and it doesn't mean you overvalue him in Dynasty. And he might be on that same type of plateau that we talked about

with Madison and with Rashad White and David Montgomery, where what happens if he has a bad year? What happens if he doubles twice a goal? A coach that's going to say a running back, oh, it's okay that you had a bad year do you really what happens if he doubles twice a goal coach that's gonna say a running back oh it's okay that you had a bad year come on back we'll give you the same role this year and he's gonna kick him to the curb and he'll be a you know a number two running back on somebody else's team so i'm a little bit worried about the long-term upside for romandre we are going to group my last three risers here ryan because they all i just realized

this actually they all play for the same team that that that team that Dave said earlier in the show was going to have a lost year Marquise Brown goes from wide receiver 34 to wide receiver 30. Rondale Moore goes from wide receiver 51 to wide receiver 43. Trey McBride goes from tight end 18 to tight end 16. Now, the wide receivers here, the May update and the June update, obviously the DeAndre Hopkins release happened in between those. And we kind of thought that was coming, so it wasn't a big boost. Am I high or low on the Arizona Cardinals, or is it a mixed bag with these three guys?

I'd say you're a little bit high based on our numbers, but all three players have seen some small increases in recent months. Hollywood Brown is up to wide receiver 26. He was wide receiver 33 last month. Rondell Moore, much lower than you have him, actually. He's wide receiver 59 in our ADp uh was 62 the previous month and then my favorite target of this group is the second year tight end trey mcbride uh just he actually lost some value according to our our adp which i totally disagree with personally because i'm

i'm with um i'm with you guys i don't think think Ertz is there really beyond this year. I don't think we see him in a Cardinals uniform anymore, but McBride's tight end 21 right now. I love McBride as the target. The wide receivers, I don't know. I'm probably just staying away from him, honestly. Couldn't it be possible that Marquise Brown gets traded along? If the Cardinals do have a purge year,

and really their defense is what I'm looking for. I think we're taking this too far. Is that too far, though? Because he's got a big contract number. If they're going to absolutely tank, for lack of a better term, there's going to be a team that's going to want Marquise Brown. He's got speed, and we know that speedy receivers have a longer shelf life than they really should in the National Football League. So keeping him at wide receiver 30, that's where you made him. I think that that's cool.

He could be on a completely different team and in a much bigger role that could propel him to more stability moving forward. I think the role is maybe the most interesting part because we've got a completely new offense in Arizona. And what we saw last year was that Rondell Moore and or Greg Dortch in that slot role, we're looking at nine targets per game. I've been a bigger fan of Rondell Moore, I think probably than the community has. He does have injury risks. I don't care as much about that. And when we're talking about a guy who's wide receiver 45 to wide receiver 55 range. At that point, what is the risk? You're risking a 10th or a 12th round pick on the guy. I do think that he has elite athletic traits, and think, amongst the risers who I also wrote about this month as someone you should buy before training camp. Because I do think he is one transaction away from being a top 12 tight end in Dynasty. I think he jumps over at least two of the rookies, if not all the rookies, by the middle of this season if Zach Ertz is gone? Well, McBride, I mean, we kind of lose that perspective, but this time a year ago, he was the tight end one in that rookie class.

We knew it would be kind of a slow start to his career playing behind Zach Ertz, and he didn't really show much until Ertz was off the field. But, yeah, I certainly still have high hopes. Totally agree. I've been sending out offers for him. And I think everybody's, well, not everybody, but I think a lot of people are already on this same page because I haven't been able to buy him at kind of what the market costs, the ADP, the rankings, even some of what we see in the trade finder.

I haven't been able to buy him for that. So you're maybe a guy you're going to have to overpay for, but I think you could still make a profit on a guy like that. I think you can hit that middle where you're overpaying at what everything says his cost should be, but underpaying based on what his value is going to be once Ertz is gone. He's also, Dave, another one of these tight ends who fits into that mode of what I've been saying about this year's rookie class. I would rather not draft them and just trade for them next September or October when everybody's soured on them because they had the bad rookie year that we should expect from rookie tight ends. And you're just basically banking it on the history of rookie tight ends just not doing anything great. And no matter what type of opportunity is there for him and whatever he does with it, the odds are it'll be below whatever our expectations are. And that makes perfect sense to me. And that's why I haven't drafted. Have I drafted any rookie tight ends in any of the three dynasty leagues I'm in i know we've got one draft starting soon i drafted some sam laporta before the nfl draft because people had him so far behind

michael mayer now it's gotten more difficult to do that with laporta i think he we see him go earlier i do want to give uh we've talked way too much arizona cardinals but i think jasmine makes a really good point here. The sneaky thing that people haven't talked about with that team is that they've got 28-year-old, massive injury risk James Conner at running back, and who's going to be the number two and end up having 15 to 20 touches week six? And I think Keontae Ingram's the most likely. Well, I mean, going back to what Dave was saying earlier about a possible Hollywood trade, like it would make sense for them to trade Hollywood Brown. I don't know that I trust, you know, this new leadership, both front office and coaching staff to do that yet.

We saw them have a really nice draft with, you know, with moving up and down the board and getting their guy and getting future picks. That was all great. But Ertz is still on this roster but urts is still on this roster james connor's still on this roster like are you committed to a tank year or or are you not like right those those two guys should be gone yeah that's what i am always skeptical especially at this point that anybody in arizona is committed to a tank here i i am i don't like the talk about kyler's going to sit out. I would guess that Gannon thinks, you know what, if we could just play 500

until Kyler gets there. I think that that's what they're thinking. I don't think they're thinking about, we need to get rid of all of these guys who might be good because we need to get a good draft pick. Now, I understand why other people are saying that. There was one more question here. We've got to be really quick on this one, then we'll get to the followers.

Andrew asks, I wonder if McBride was in this year's tight end class, where would he be drafted? I just want to just one-word answer, two-word answer. Where would you rank him amongst this year's tight end class? Second. That was my thought. I think that's fair. We currently have three rookie tight ends in our

tight in one range so kincaid tight in nine laporta tight in 10 mayor tight in 12 i i think i think mcbride would certainly be in that group that was way more than one word sorry i think i think second's a good guess but yeah you're right it's difficult let's take a quick break and then we'll get to my June Fullers. I've got six guys here as well, Ryan. Man, one of these. Let's just get the first one out of the way real quick. Jimmy Garoppolo was QB 27 with the news about the foot,

with the questions about whether to be ready. He's now QB 33. It's one thing to not have any upside, but when you also don't have any floor, that's crushing for your fantasy value, isn't it? Yeah, it really is. I mean,

I think the move out of San Francisco, while it was obvious, while we all knew it was coming, it was such a negative thing for Garoppolo and his value. I believe our ADP at DLF was actually collected after that foot injury news came out or kind of the update came out because he actually climbed in ADP from May to June. That being said, he's still the quarterback 31. So really just placing almost no value on Jimmy Garoppolo at this point. So Dave, we're going to move right to the running backs with you. Dalvin Cook was RB22. I was concerned he might get cut. Now he's RB25.

I don't know that I've moved him down far enough. Ryan was talking about Alexander Madison passing Dalvin Cook. That will happen in my rankings if I get to my July update and Dalvin Cook still talking about trying to get more than $5 million, because I don't think that's happening. How do you value Cook and Dynasty? Do you still feel like I do, like the most likely outcome is he's going to be a lead back with 250 touches somewhere? I think he can get there, which is why he's a hold for me. It's just a matter of him finding that team first and the fact that he wasn't gobbled up immediately after his release from Minnesota I think that justifies you moving him down just a little bit you put him outside of

your top 24 and I think that makes sense but if if let's just say Rashad White gets hurt and now Dalvin Cook signs in Tampa Bay and he's the lead back in Tampa Bay and and this is going to be an offense that might be a very different flavor from what they were last year. Yeah, you're shooting them right back up. He'll be on the other side of that top 24. But he's in the one-year camp. He's a year-to-year running back now. And that's somebody that you're going to say, oh, great, I've got Dalvin Cook.

I'm set at RB2 for the next three years. You can't say that anymore. Ryan, I think he's going to just – like if I'm thinking of one team that's going to overpay an old running back, it's the Dallas Cowboys, and I think he's going to go crush Tony Pollard. I didn't put him in the guys that I was way too high on. Probably don't even speak that into existence. Where is Dalvin in ADP, and are you getting concerned that maybe he thinks he's worth too much and doesn't land a starting job because of that?

Well, I mean, you almost have to wait for the injury, whether you're Dalvin Cook or a dynasty manager trying to figure out how this is going to play out. I mean, we know the value of running backs in general across the NFL right now, and it's certainly not very high. Dalvin Cook's ADP is RB26 this month. That is the lowest of his career. It's funny. We've got that monthly ADP dating all the way back, in Cook's case, to February of 2017, his rookie year. He entered the league as the RB5.

Before he was even drafted by Minnesota, he was the RB5. And that was justified. Yeah, yeah, absolutely. So a huge fall, obviously, for Cook. I agree with Dave. I think he's like the definition of a hold in Dynasty right now. You just can't do anything with him. And I think this will be more controversial

and maybe the biggest gap between me and ADP or the second. Najee Harris was RB14 for me fall into RB 19 it's a couple of things one there's a little chatter about Jalen Warren getting more work and the Steelers coaches just can't continue to ignore him now I would say Matt Canada is still there you should not underestimate the length that they could go to to make this offense unproductive. But it's also, I just tweeted this out a couple of days ago. Running backs who have had 500 plus touches and been as inefficient as Najee Harris his first two years in the league, worse than four yards per carry, worse than six yards per worse than five yards per target. Never has a running back started their career like that and had more

than one top 20 running back season again at from year three on it's zero or one. And there's a lot more zeros than ones amongst those backs that get this opportunity to come into the league immediately and be workhorse backs and produce results. And I'm not even saying the results are all his fault. I'm not saying Najee Harris is bad. It's just the track record of guys, especially when you've got Jalen Warren looking so good right next to him. So I've dropped him a little bit.

How far off am I from ADP and from you? You're not far off from me at all. I'm pretty low on Najee Harris as well. Our drafters are a little more confident. They have him at RB11 this month. Actually, he's been either RB11 or 12 the past four months. I'm totally with you, though, Heath. I'm worried about this guy.

He came into the league as an older prospect. time, one year ago, you look at the, the ADP history at DLF. He was a top five overall player and the RB two and just like flashing lights looked like, uh, you know, a fraud at that value. And I couldn't believe people were spending first round picks on this guy but it continued to happen over and over so you know he's he's a fine player to have on your roster if he's your second or third option if he's my rb1 i'm i'm very worried dave i remember we were having this discussion a year ago and i look back i had na Najee Harris at RB6, so I guess I was smart, although it still feels dumb. But the debate between three players for who should be RB4, and it was Najee Harris versus Javante Williams versus DeAndre Swift, which is why I say,

if you're not competing this year, you shouldn't have any running backs on your roster because we have no idea who's going to be good in two years. It could certainly come down to that. Ryan Heath, would you guys agree that this is a make or break year for naji if last year wasn't well i don't think last year i i don't think last year necessarily broke and he finished strong last year and maybe the coaching staff maybe after the rookie year they gave him a pass because he was a rookie and the offensive line was really terrible and roethlisberger was the quarterback and so they turned the page and maybe they gave him a pass last year because of the foot injury and that seemed to really limit him through maybe the first half of the year maybe

a little bit more than that he did average more than 15 ppr points per game in his last five I think if he can't get the job done this year and the coaching staff starts thinking more about Jalen Warren taking work away from him because Warren he's fast and he's he's a decent pass catcher and you know a guy that can work the edges of an offense don't know if he's really good enough to handle the wear and tear between the tackles uh I think if they pivot toward Warren more that's going to spell the end for Najee and it's disappointing because awesome running back in college, big-time pedigree coming out of high school in California, seems like a great

guy, amazing story, but just could not get the job done in the NFL. Yeah, if I've got Najee on my dynasty team, I'm worried. I'm going to try and come up with a contingency plan for him starting this year. Heath, I think you're totally right having him where you've got him at RB19.

Would either of you take just a first straight up, random first, 2024 for Najee Harris? I think it depends on my situation. If I had decent running back depth where I could look at my squad and say, okay, I'd be fine without Najee. Maybe if I had another running back that would be slotted ahead of Najee anyway. Oh, see, I was thinking what you're going to say is if you're contending this year, you would not, but if you're not contending, you would. No, I'm saying if Najee isn't my, like if I've got Najee and Tony Pollard and you're

offering me a one for Najee, I think I'm taking it. I think I am as well. And if I am contending, I'll trade Najee Harris for Derrick Henry in a second. I would rather have something like that. Just have the better running back this year. Right. Because we can't say for certain. If we're saying that this is a make-or-break year for Najee,

he could make it this year so you're kind of thinking about that chance of him being a long-term winner to get the one year winner in Derrick Henry and even think about which of those guys is more likely to be a starter in 2024 I mean it's it's Najee but it's close i think right would you try and go for would you work your way to henry in those types of trades would you try to go for like eckler and then once you get a no from eckler then you go to henry would you look would you consider chubb before or after henry my favorite target is josh j If I've got Najee Harris. Back really quickly back to the kind of big picture running back discussion.

The top 12 running backs this time, one year ago, Jonathan Taylor, Najee Harris was to McCaffrey, Javante, Swift, Hall, Eckler, Barkley. And then it finishes up with Mixon, Chubb, Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara. Like I said, if you're not competing this year, do not roster running backs at all. Go get more wide receivers, quarterbacks, anything. Draft picks, not running backs. So a couple of these guys will gloss over. George Pickens was wide receiver 22.

He's now wide receiver 27. He's probably going to be in the wide receiver 30 range. I just can't get excited about George Pickens. Until he shows me he can do something besides run deep. Here's all I want to add about George Pickens' value. Again, we collect this ADP throughout the year, even during the regular season. In December, George Pickens was the 34th overall player in our ADP. Right now, he's wide receiver 34.

So big, big fall over the past six months for Pickens. You know what? That disconnect that I talked about earlier in the show with Getze and the red zone passing numbers for Chicago, I think there's a similar disconnect here between the fantasy world, which looks at all the metrics that say that George Pickens isn't a great player, and the coaches in Pittsburgh, which seem to be louting Pickens. Well, then they should have him do something besides run a go route. Right.

Well, but you know something? If you're really good at running a go route or even a stop route and winning contested catches, that's a damn good trait and that's going to earn you targets. Oh, yeah. He can do that over and over. It'll get him five or six targets a game. I'm going to go to the George Pickens manager

in my leagues and I'm going to see how excited they are about him. And if they're not excited about him, I'm going to see if I can get him on the cheap. Last one here. I did move Dalton Kincaid. I didn't have any fallers. I moved him from tight end nine to tight end 10. His ADP is tight end nine. That doesn't really matter. Just be patient with him. Don't spend what you spent on Dalton Kincaid and then go trade him next year because he didn't perform as a rookie because I don't really expect he's going to. Tyreek Hill was my wide receiver eight. He has fallen to wide receiver 14. And yes, it was just a reminder

the things that have happened with Tyreek Hill throughout his career and incidents off the field, more recently slapping a man on a boat that was not his, but also has talked about how he, and I'd kind of ignored this, but he doesn't plan on playing past this contract. And he is 29 with a game built so much on speed. I think I was looking at him as a little more safe of an asset than he really is, Ryan.

Where's the community at on him? Where are you at? Yeah, again, this is another one where our data was kind of caught in between that news. Tyreek Hill was actually a riser in June based on our ADP, which I didn't get even before the latest incident. Was up to wide receiver eight ahead of Alave, ahead of fellow 29- old uh stefan diggs ahead of t higgins and davante smith and cooper cup i think he's more in that mid-range wide receiver two you know if he's wide receiver 15 16 17 that's where i i would value him that's where davante adams is um and the off field you know the boat incident just, again,

kind of reminds us that this guy's given us some reasons to be worried about his value over the years. Well, and it can be, like, you don't even have to make a character judgment, Dave, that you think that he's now more likely to have a problem in the future. It's just that if he does, like Deshaun Watson, I would say also, if there is a problem in the future, once you've already got that first strike with the NFL, the second punishment is going to be more severe. Sure, but I also wonder if that has a domino effect that makes him want to play longer.

Remember he once said that he wanted to wrap up his career by the time he was 30? Well, if he misses a portion of a season and maybe he feels like his name got dragged through the mud, he might want to try and redeem himself a little bit and play a little bit longer. And has he slown down? Not at all. Slown. He's not slown. No, he has not slown or slowed down since he's been in the league.

I think this dude could play until he was like 36 if he wanted to. If someone in my league is getting nervous about Tyreek Hill, I am happy to make a move to try and acquire him. I think I could talk to you guys until he's 36 about Dynasty Fantasy Football, but we are out of time. Ryan, thank you so much for joining us. Everybody

go follow him on Twitter at RyanMC23. Go check out Dynasty League Football. And come check us back out next Tuesday. We'll talk to you next Tuesday.