Fantasy Football Today - FFT Dynasty - Our Favorite Dynasty buys before Week One (08/20 Dynasty Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: August 21, 2024

With less than three weeks until real games start, Heath enlists the help of Davis Mattek to figure out their favorite Dynasty buys that can help bolster your roster before Week 1. 02:24 - Three Questions for Davis Mattek 10:47 - Our Dynasty Buys 19:16 - Our TE Dynasty Buys 27:46 - You should buy Tua...right now! 31:19 - Cheaper Dynasty Buys 42:29 - Listener questions To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Welcome to Fantasy Football Today Dynasty. I am your host, Heath Cummings, joined today by my good friend, my old friend, Davis Maddock. And I want to just start because I tweeted this out earlier and I need to tweet out that we're live right now. Like, we've talked for more than a decade now about this sport. How does it feel that someone can now unironically call you old friend, Davis matter? Honestly, it feels great. My 32nd birthday was yesterday washed,

you know, a time, a time for a time for reflection. I am now of the age that if an NFL wide receiver is my age, I'd be like, I don't know, man, I don't know.

I don't know about a guy like me and Devante Adams are the same age. And Heath, when I get up in the morning, I'm like, I don't know. Maybe I don't know. I don't know about a guy like me and Devante Adams are the same age. And Heath, when I get up in the morning, I'm like, I don't know. Maybe I don't, maybe I don't want to draft Devante Adams as much when I know how I feel when I get up in the morning. It's, it's 100% true. And we know that like you get to that age and things that get hurt sometimes just keep hurting and like much longer than they should.

And that's the things that, I mean, NFL players actually have real reasons to be hurt. Before we jump into what we're doing on today's show, I do want you to tell everyone what you've been working on, where they can find your work. I have two places you can really engage with my work. You can subscribe to my YouTube channel. It's just, if you search my name on YouTube, it is going to pop right up or you can find all of my rankings, you know, best ball dynasty redraft tiers. Every,

if you, if you, if you want my work for fantasy football, you can find that on patrion.com slash Davis Matic. All that stuff is there. Absolutely. Wonderful. On today's show,

we are going to talk about our favorite dynasty buys before week one. It is almost point scoring season. We're going to have to start caring about whether or not these guys are going to score any fantasy points, or at least half the teams in the league are. Even if you're a rebuilder, we always start with three questions for our guest, but Davis has been on this show a lot of times. We don't have to ask him the normal three questions. So I've got some different three questions, and I want to start with one of your favorite buys that you sent me was Xavier Worthy. Three catches for 62 yards. Chiefs really wanted to get him involved in that second week of the preseason. No one pressed him and knocked him onto the ground. It was fantastic. One of mine is Rishi Rice, who apparently is just going to play all of the snaps with Patrick Mahomes and see 30% of the targets. Mahomes keeps talking them up.

Seems like there's no suspension coming as best we know right now. How do you view this receiving core in 2024 and beyond so i think specifically for dynasty the reason why i think we're both right about rice and about worthy is that hollywood is either going to play well enough this season to earn himself a large contract from another organization that has more cap space or he is going to be so bad that he doesn't factor in to worthy and righteous production. I don't really see much of a middle ground. I mean, I suppose, you know, 63 receptions, 814 yards and five touchdowns could happen. But if he does that, he still probably gets a bigger contract, like kind of what happened to Juju.

So then you're talking about the reason why i specifically have worthy as the buy is that rashi is going to be suspended next season in my estimation and worthy would have to play very bad this season to not have his dynasty value rise like he would almost have to go full jalen regger i i think if he even does what McCall Hardman did as a rookie, and it's been a long time, so we forgot what that season was, 555 yards and six touchdowns. If Worthy does that, I don't think his value diminishes at all. Really, I don't.

It's a pretty low bar playing with Pat. Obviously, I think he's a much better player than Hardman was, even as a prospect. Yeah. And I think what we're going to try to use for the buys portion of this show is what their cost is in terms of Dynasty League football, August ADP. There's lots of different ways that you can measure cost in Dynasty. That's the one I've chosen this time it's not necessarily the best but looking at xavier worthy he is wide receiver 27 in adp this month is that that's pretty close to where i have him ranked maybe a spot or two below so i've got i've got him above some of the older guys like i've got him ahead of debo who who like, obviously I'd love Debo. And this is the thing with Dynasty is that it's so contextual. If I've got this great team, I totally want to have Debo, but all things being equal, I think Worthy is a more valuable asset than Debo for

Dynasty. Now, Rice is actually, and this is one that probably is changing as we speak. I don't think that any ADP you're looking at can keep up with his meteoric redraft rise. And I'd guess that's going to be reflected in dynasty ranks and ADP relatively soon, but he was actually wide receiver 32 in terms of August startup ADP. I've got him a couple of spots ahead of worthy in a, I, is it just as simple as if you're a contender you'd rather roster rice and if you're not you'd rather roster worthy or do you prefer worthy in all cases or rice in all cases you know the interesting thing is i think we're gonna have a much clearer answer about which one of them that we prefer in like probably a month like probably by like week three we'll be like oh

yeah rashi rice is actually just this great player. And it wasn't manufactured stuff last year. Like Rashi Rice actually is just a good stylistic fit. And maybe Worthy is going to take more time. I actually tend to believe that Worthy, if I just kind of have faith in Andy, I kind of think Worthy's special. I kind of think that Andy and Veach were like,

this guy can be our Deshaun Jackson. This guy can get 130 targets a year and kind of replace what we lost with Tyreek, which is not to say that Rashi Rice can't compete, like can't be an additive part of the offense. Particularly, I think Rice's big value to the team is when Kelsey retires. They will need the guy to just catch 85 passes with an ADOT of 6.3 and keep the chains moving. And I totally think he can do that. But Worthy, I think has the ability to be like a league winner year after year. We're like,

you're just, he's the wide receiver nine in dynasty, I think is a potential thing for him. That might've actually been three questions about the chiefs wide receivers, but we still have two questions left. So, you know, it's my show. We'll do what I want. Are we like, speaking of worthy, are we wheels up on all of the round one rookie draft picks from three months ago? Has anybody lost steam from the guys that we were drafting in the top 12? Or is it just like full steam ahead on all these guys?

That's a great question. Maybe the light wheels down on lad, just like full steam ahead on all these guys? That's a great question. Maybe flight wheels down on lad, like maybe just a, just a smidgen down on lad because he's already been banged up. The training camp reports have been good, but not like, Oh, we can't wait to build the entire passing offense out of this guy. You know, there's like a lot of Brendan Rice and Simi Fajoko involved. But that would be it. I mean, I had Ladd lower than his consensus rankings anyway, because I was taking Bo Nix and JJ McCarthy over him in these super flex drafts. But other than that, yeah, I think that's probably the case.

And I guess in super flex, like through no fault of his own, JJ McCarthy lost a little bit of value just because he's not going to play football this year. But other than that, yeah, it does seem like everybody else pretty much having a good summer. I want to ask now on the other side of the spectrum. Let's say you're a contender, a top three or four roster. You're eventually going to be buying some vets this season. Are you shopping now or are you waiting until closer to the deadline? Uh, no, I'm, I'm like super, I'm super shopping now. I think this is, this is like

the, this next like two weeks that we're in, this is like the most ideal time to do it. There are a lot of like, if you ever, if you have a contending team, like you need to be trading for like James Connor and Austin Eckler and Deandre Hopkins and, uh, you know, Evan Ingram, like these are, it's, it's boring, but these are the guys who it's particularly, I don't know what, what your diet is like in these leagues. I play in a lot of best ball leagues for dynasty where it's 30 man rosters. And like the number one thing you could do to win is literally have one through 30 guys who are scoring points. No Jelani Woods, no Tank Bigsby roster spots. All guys who are going to be active and part of their offenses on game day.

I think that's a great point. And I would say a lot of the guys you named fall into this category. My distinction is I'm buying aggressively with second, third, fourth round picks. My, I'd like to hold on to the, I like to have that round one pick in the holster,

like just in case I need it in October or November. Like I've had a whole open up on my, on my roster. I want to make sure I use that to go get a guy who's healthy. So I I'd like to hold onto the round one pick. But yeah, I think a lot of those older veterans you mentioned, you're probably getting for a second or two seconds or a second and a third. And that's exactly the types of deals that I'm trying to make because the risk just isn't that great. We're going to take our first break and then we're going to get into some of our high

end dynasty buys. Davis has no budget. He is buying the expensive players in Dynasty right now. Did you know 66% of utility damage is caused by not requesting a locate? Don't let your project become part of this statistic. A quick locate request can save you from unexpected downtime, financial penalties, and keep you safe. Don't let avoidable damage cost you time and money. Click before you dig. Ensure your next project is safe.

Visit OntarioOneCall.ca. It's free. It's easy. It's the law. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. I think it's before we get started on this, I need to throw a little bit of love to Andrew because we can all relate.

I bought Sky more and traded way too much for the human joystick. I have faith in Worthy's profile. I believe he's a total wide receiver. Like, I do not care. I drafted Clyde Edwards earlier too early. We're just going to keep smashing that same button over and over. Speaking of smashing that button, you're, I would say, highest priced by Devon Achan, a guy that there's been many battles fought over him

in the Twitter streets this past offseason. Currently RB9 by Dynasty League Football, August ADP, which is really close to where I have him. A lower-end RB1. Not worried at all about him playing in the second quarter, second preseason game. He's going to break out this year, right? I think this will be the last chance to acquire Devon A. Chain, period. We've all played Dynasty for a long time. Their players get to a certain stage of production where they are

actually just not acquirable for, you know, so let's say, let's say you put like, let's say you put Josh Allen in a super flex league into a trade calculator, put them in your little trade calculator, send that offer to your league mate. It's getting smashed tonight. People just don't. That's kind of the thing about dynasties. People don't really trade 25-year-old Christian McCaffrey. People try and get Justin Jefferson right now. No one's selling.

Try and get CeeDee Lamb right now. No one's selling. This will be the time to get a chain at a cost that is, I bet you could get a chain right now for your 2025 first. And like, I don't know, Braylon Allen or Ray Davis, or,

or, you know, just kind of someone like that, like a, like a, a like for like, or a Jalen Tolbert, you know,

just kind of like a throw in a guy who's not a zero, whatever, but basically a 2025 first, I think, will get him to some level of frequency in your leagues. You mentioned some great names there, and I think that's probably right. I'll throw one at you. We were just talking about if you're a contender. But let's say the first couple of the weeks, things go terrible for a team you thought was a contender. You got a couple of major injuries.

You're starting 0-3. The only guy you really still have healthy is Christian McCaffrey. It's time to jump off that train. What do you need in addition to McCaffrey to trade for A-chan? I'm trying to get, I'm selling McCaffrey and I'm getting A-chan a first in JJ McCarthy or something like that. Like I would say, I would say right now I should have, I should have put this on our list. If you have a crappy team, if you've got like, literally you're trying to get the number one overall pick JJ McCarthy should be like,

you should be messaging the guy who's got JJ McCarthy every day, trying to get them. That should be your, that should be your number one by actually. So one of the things I talked to Jacob Gibbs about last week or the year before was this idea that upside is the only thing that matters. And he was saying that he really thought that was more of a redraft concept than a dynasty concept. No, I think it's super matters in dynasty. I was going to say like, he is the ultimate upside is the only thing that matters because you look

at his efficiency last year and historically players who first off nobody is as efficient as he was but players who are wildly efficient at the running back position on a low number of touches get more touches the next year score a lot of fantasy points something like five out of the seven that have been anywhere close to what he did had monster years the next year but he does come with like all running backs come with risk. And I think you'd probably agree. He comes with a little bit more risk than the average running back. There's a, there's some size concerns.

There's some usage concerns. There's some injury concerns. Is this strictly a upside is all that matters play? Or is there, do you think maybe his floor, his lower floor is a little bit overblown i think the floor case is super overblown because what what world are you living in where he doesn't get the ball and he's active like there's not a there's not a world where

week one there are 28 running back touches for the Dolphins. He gets 13 of them. Moser gets 15, he gets 13? Yeah. Okay. That is about in line with my expectation. And my expectation is also that efficiency is rewarded and that Moser just had the most

like his mostard season was actually much more of an efficiency outlier than than a chance which is so funny because no one would think about it that way but if you look at like uh fantasy points over expectation versus what mostard has done in his career first it it's, it's he also, I mean, the thing is, is also the McDaniel offense is the same as the Shannon offense in the sense that guys are gonna almost always produce fantasy points over expectation because of the situation. So I'm going to give a running back by as well. Not,

not as expensive as HN and probably someone like I've said this multiple times this year, maybe even late last year, but nobody's really moved him or bought him. So I'm just going to say it again now that Javante Williams is going to be a little more expensive because it seems pretty clear he's not getting cut as the beat tweet said over the summer. He is the lead running back. And I think like Jaleel McLaughlin has the number two. I like him a lot. And I like him in that role. I think there's less threat that he's turning into a lead running back than

there is with a Chan for sure. Like he, he is not a guy who's going to have 15 to 20 touches on a, on a regular basis. So Javante Williams seems pretty locked in to that RB1 role in a Sean Payton offense that is pretty RB centric. We're now two years removed from the ACL. He's RB27 still as what a 24 year old number one running back. I am absolutely buying him everywhere I can. I love it. It's a multi-layered bet it's a bet that

giovante stays healthy it's a bet that he looks much more like the guy he did as a rookie and the university of north carolina than what he did last season it's also a bet on bo nix and sean payton the early returns in the preseason have been very good essentially looks like Bo Nix is going to be what Peyton wants him to be, which is just execute the offense. I don't need you to be, I need you to be the point guard. I don't need you to be, I don't need you to be the straw that stirs the drink. I just want you to distribute the ball where I want it. I think he probably is going to do it.

I mean, does, can Bo Nix be CJ Stroud and elevate a whole team? Absolutely not. Can he be way better than the average returns for a rookie quarterback? I think, I mean, he's also 24 years old, so you would hope so. I think he can be better at doing what Sean Payton wants him to do than Russell Wilson can. I just had this thought. Can you imagine how much Sean Payton has hated watching Caleb Williams play football this preseason? Oh, it's the exact opposite of what Sean Payton, If you, if you gave Sean Payton some truth serum, he would tell you, I don't even want to coach Caleb Williams. I don't even, I don't even, I don't even find that interesting. That's not what I want. It's a

Rick Carlisle. It's, it's the Rick Carlisle thing. Rick Carlisle didn't really like coaching Luka Doncic because Luka wants to do his own thing. He wants the Rick Carlisle thing. Rick Carlisle didn't really like coaching Luka Doncic because Luka wants to do his own thing. He wants to run the offense his way. He wants to get in his own sets. He doesn't want his coach to be literally, Rick Carlisle literally will call plays out as his point guard is bringing the ball up the floor.

That's what Sean Payton would be as a basketball coach. That's what Bo Nix did at Oregon. I mean, that is what Bo Nix, you think, you think Bo Nix was, was the straw that stirred the drink for that Oregon team? Absolutely not. Yeah. And I'll say like, I've coached a lot of youth basketball and I often joke with the parents about how, like, I wish I just had an Xbox controller so I could just make everybody do the things that I've told them to do.

And that's 100% Sean Payton, except he's doing it with adults that are making millions of dollars in the NFL. Let's get to your second dynasty by, and like, I just want to cheer through this entire thing. You do your thing on Trey McBride, the current tight end to buy dynasty league, August ADP.

So you could not only could this be Trey McBride, but you could also make this Mark Andrews. You could also make thisbride but you could also make this mark andrews you could also make this uh uh kyle pitts you could also make this kincaid you could make it kiddle really honestly probably anyone but kelsey and kelsey i mean if you're a contending team probably not anyone's going to add more points to your roster than kelsey i think the advantage and dynasty of having an elite tight end is is i mean it's maybe even a bigger advantage than having like mcafree or jefferson or something because you are like gonna be just smashing the the dalton schultz teams like you're just gonna be you're gonna you're gonna you're gonna be projected

like to beat them by four points on any given week i loved mcbride as a prospect any tight end that can lead their team and receptions is always such a flag to me to me it's kind of like now obviously there's been examples where this has gone wrong like the jason morrow example but it's very simplistic but he had trey mcbride had 90 receptions his final season in college the second player on his team had 43 and basically the second that he got a full-time role last season I mean he was above league average in yards per route run and targets per route run playing with Josh Dobbs and Clayton Toon and then Kyler coming back from the thing and then the the second layer on this is I'm crazy high on the Cardinals I I think the Cardinals are like a dark horse team

to lead the NFL in scoring, period. And, you know, Dortch and Wilson are really good secondary contributors. James Conner and Trey Benson are good receiving backs. And Marvin Harrison Jr. is just going to kind of like open up the whole experience for everyone. And I'm a big Kyler believer as well. And again, make it bright.

I mean, like basically my line is can i get a player for a 2025 first without adding anything else in and i think for mcbride in a lot of formats that will be the case it could be wrong you know maybe there's a real mcbride believer but i i think that gets accepted in a lot of uh leagues there is a real mcbride believer it's me and And he's like, he's my tight end one for this year. I think the efficiency gains from Kyler being 100% and Marvin Harrison doing what he does will more than make up for any volume losses that he has. I mean, he was on pace for 144 targets as a starter last year. Maybe he doesn't do that, but I do think he'll be better

on a per game basis. I, my tight end buy is actually a guy, and I wonder if you can buy into this at all, that I actually think could kind of bridge that gap between the elites to the Dalton Schultzes and Dallas Goddards and Pat Fryermuths of the world, and that is Jake Ferguson. Everybody seems to accept what happened with CeeDee Lamb in the last 10 games of last year is the new reality in Dallas. And I think rightly so. CeeDee Lamb had a breakout and they don't really have any other pass catchers. But the last 12 games, including the playoffs for Jake Ferguson, was almost as big of a

leap. He was at 13.8 PPR fantasy points per game. And really, it was, you don't even have, I know I, including the playoffs and everyone thinks, yeah, you're sneaking that three touchdown playoff game in there. He was basically doing the same thing without the touchdowns. The last 10 games of the season, this offense just went hyper concentrated on CD lamb and Jake Ferguson, and then added nobody else of consequence. So I do think that there's a chance that Jake Ferguson's a 13 fantasy point per game guy this year. That's just being overlooked as part of that. I don't even know if you'd call it mid tier that's tied in 10 through 15. So I think the issue, I think

conceptually I'm fine with it. It would be a price thing for me. And it would be like, if I'm parting with this asset, if I'm parting with, let's say, a good second, or I'm parting with the wide receiver 37 to acquire, I probably would rather either spend less to add someone like Hunter Henry, who I'm a big believer in Drake May, so I really like adding Hunter Henry, who like, I'm a big believer in Drake May. So I really like adding Henry, or I would rather up it and say, I, you know, I'll give you Jermaine Burton, my 2025 second and Blake Corum to get George Kittle, I think is, is where I'm at. But the reason why I think that is kind of a bad bias of Ferguson was not a

particularly good prospect. Right. It's also, it's also like literally Dalton Schultz bias of like, why didn't think Schultz was any good. And then Ferguson just replicated Dalton Schultz's stats. So maybe it's just Dak. And like all of that is not particularly high level fantasy football

analysis. So I, I really might just be wrong. Right. Well, and again, like Ferguson is a guy that's probably, you said it, it's probably going to cost you a second round pick.

I don't think anybody is demanding anything more than that. You might be able, it might even be a player that you value as a low end second that you're able to send for Ferguson because the person you're trading with likes them more than you do. And it also might be a deal if you're making a high level deal where he can almost be a throw into the deal. He's not as expensive as a Trey McBride, but not far from as expensive as your number three buy. It's TJ Hawkinson, who we still don't really know if he's going to start the year out or how many weeks he's going to miss. I think the expectation for most people is we're not going to see him for

the first month of the season is this a contender by is this a rebuilder by is this an anybody by tj hawkinson tight end 10 by current adp i think it's it's probably in anyone by i i really i really think it probably just goes for if you're if you're a rebuilding team i mean you want to talk about buy low sell high hawkinson gets announced on the pup list you send a trade offer for hawkinson hawkinson comes off the puff list week seven runs 54 of the routes scores a touchdown on four targets you immediately flip him for a late first to the team that had whoever you know like let's say let's say a contending team as Kyle Pitts, Kyle Pitts is rope, uh, you know, rug pulled us for the ninth consecutive season and you flip them. I mean, I think it's a, I think it's a, a total situation.

And then as a contending team, again, same thing. If I could get TJ Hawkinson for my 2025 second as a contending team right now, and maybe I was, maybe I'm starting Jake Ferguson. I actually, this is, this is a, this is very on brand. I've got a Jake Ferguson team in an industry league that Scott Barrett put together. And Ferguson is my tight end one. I might ship out my 20-25 second for TJ Hawkinson in this format because I think Hawkinson is going to score more fantasy points per game

once he comes back from this injury. I would take Hawkinson in 2025 for sure. I think we've probably seen that we overestimate how quickly, and it's different by every player, but there's a chance that he comes back week seven and he's just not really himself for a month, too. Well, Hawkinson, he's had another injury. I can't I can't. He had another lower body injury at some point. I'll have to go. Let me. I think the nice thing is that, like, he's not a guy who the last couple of years has been producing fantasy points because he's doing a whole lot of things running with the football anyway.

Like, it's just been a big target volume. And it may just come down to how bad is Sam Darnold and how ready is Jordan Addison when that happens? And like, what does the target distribution look like? I do think I would, and it's funny because Hawkinson's what, three years older than Ferguson. He's 27, start of the year, Ferguson, 25. So just two. Yeah.

For a rebuilder, I'd prefer Hawkinson because I think the long-term upside is bigger. Here's a correlated buy i would i if i could get sam darnold for a third round pick in any superflex format doesn't that contending middle of the road rebuild i don't i'm sending out any third for sam darnold so that it is infinite upside infinite upside sam turn into geno smith he could also turn into a zero but it's it is uh an insanely good pick and related i've went and picked up nick mullins and a couple of deep super flex league because like justin jepson had 476 yards with him in four games i can't imagine he's gonna allow sam donald to be bad for too long before he says hey start that guy um i think you're right for sure donald for a and 100% go get that done if you

can. I've got one more buy before our second break. It's Tuatunga-Vailoa. He is currently QB 16. I should add the caveat that the CBS leagues are six point per pass touchdown leagues. I know it's probably slightly more four point per pass touchdown leagues, especially when you get an industry leagues, even more of that. But I think it's really underrated. You're talking to a guy who led the NFL in passing yards last year. Yeah. The year before led the league in yards per attempt and touchdown rate. I think really the only reason we didn't see a better fantasy number from him last year is because the number of blowout victories that the Dolphins had.

I think their defense is considerably worse this year. 600 pass attempts, kind of my expectation, which opens the door in my mind for a 5,000-yard, 35-touchdown season. Tua is one of those guys who could go have a top-five season without the rushing production. He's not going to have the rushing production, and he's not being valued like that at all. I've basically got him, Jordan Love, Trevor Lawrence, and Purdy all in the same tier to by far the cheapest of that group. I don't love it

because I think the thing we've forgotten about him is the concussion stuff where we kind of thought maybe for a little bit he was going to retire i think if i was buying a mid-range super flex quarterback right now you know i guess it depends on what your league mates are using for rankings and like because in rankings justin herbert and tua are kind of close i think my guess would be that's a rankings thing and not a reality thing where if you started to get into the trade market,

the Herbert guys not want to move him. The Tua guy might want to move him. What about Tua versus Goff? Where do you, where would you, where would you stand on Tua versus Goff for, for a 2025 first and super flex? Yeah,

I, I prefer Tua. I think that's reasonable i also like and goff's three years older it's not that big of a difference i do feel i feel like goff if his like just completely evaporated at any moment it wouldn't be as surprising to me it would not be it would not be surprising in any way shape or form for jared goff to just be done for for for ben johnson uh and co to be like yeah let's let's do i mean maybe not hendon hooker but let's say let's take shitter sanders with the 19th overall pick or whatever like that that is not surprising to me i i was never really a, to a guy I did actually weirdly,

I liked him more as a prospect. And then I kind of watched him play in the NFL. And I was like, I don't, I don't know if this is going to work. He, he, he kind of, he might, he might be too small. I think he might have a little bit of the Bryce young problem where like he might be too small. The only thing that actually scared me with him is I think that people are sleeping a little bit on how hot Mike McDaniel's seat could get if things go bad this year. Because Tyreek's locked up, Tua's locked up, Waddle's locked up. If you tell me McDaniel's no chance that he's not gone in the next three years, and I think one of the next three years, Tua is going to have just an insane passing season. And it might be this year. Let's take a quick break.

We've got some lower end dynasty buys to finish up the show. So I, like I said, when we were talking about a Chan, that there were some serious like wars being fought on Twitter. I had no idea the wars we were going to spark in the chat. This happens every day in my YouTube channel every day. i when i stream these drafts people because i i'm like obviously super h handball so like i take him over barkley and jonathan taylor and every someone will be new

to the stream for the first time and they'll be like dude what are you doing so i'm used to it so yeah yeah it's it's it's happened again i will say like dylan thank you for bringing some any listener questions at the end of the show you know what i think we're going to have time for a couple so let's let's fill up the chat with some listener questions and uh yes joe the chat is full of angst that's exactly the right word for this there'll be no angst here we're talking about cheaper dynasty buys these guys aren't going to cost you near as much nobody should get too fired up about this don tavian wicks the current wide receiver 53 by current adp depends on your league how much he costs though nobody ever fights over the packers wide receivers this won't be a problem at all uh make make your case for wicks

and kind of tell me like between Christian Watson and Jaden Reed and Wicks and Romeo Dobbs, like, how do you, this was more confusing than the Chiefs wide receiver room. Well, it's more confusing because you can't have conviction that any of them are bad. Whereas like you could maybe be like, well, I could see how Rashi Rice could be bad. I could see how it doesn't work out for Hollywood Brown. You know, anything like that. I don't, I really, I think even Dobbs, who is the worst of them by the advanced metrics, by yards per route run and targets per route run, it can be explained by saying, well, he plays the most snaps.

So people do kind of miss this in the advanced analytics stuff, which is that if there's one wide receiver who basically never subs off, his per route stuff is just going to be worse because the divisor is lower so you see this with you see this with tyree kill we're like oh my god tyree kill broke every record for yards per route run and targets but well yeah he runs about 72 of the routes go look at like randy moss great seasons how many like it would be like he would like literally never sub off he'd'd run 97% of the route. So it's, it's a little bit different. My case with Wix would be, he's the one who has the

biggest ability to be a small loss, big win. Like, okay, maybe it doesn't plan out. Maybe it is, maybe a Watson stays healthy. And Jaden Reed is this gadget guy. And he's able to go from 65% of the routes to 75% of the routes and Romeo Dobbs is Dobbs and they play a bunch of 12 personnel and Wicks is kind of just like 40% of the routes, 35% of the routes, a really good rotational wide receiver. Well, yeah, you could, that's probably fine. You could probably suffer that loss and it'll be, it'll be okay. Whereas the upside outcomes are Wicks was their best receiver in yards per outrun targets per outrun.

I mean, people are so sick of this stuff. Watson gets injured. Reed's route scale back. Dobbs route scale back. He's immediately startable every single week. And the thing is, is if you just give all three of those guys,

you scale their routes back. Let's say Watson goes 60% of the routes, 75% for Dobbs, 60% for Jaden Reed, that right there without anything else happening can get Wicks to 60% of the routes. Just, just that happening,

which is pretty big. I, I think, and you can, like, I think this is part of what makes it the worst. It's like you said, Romeo Dobbs by the advanced numbers looks the worst.

And I also think that the Packers coaches and maybe even jordan love think romeo dobbs is the best football player in the receiver room like i think of all those guys routes i can see christian watson suffering another injury that's not hard to believe i can see jayden reed routes just never really popping that's not hard to believe i have a hard time seeing romeo dobbs playing less if he's healthy that's probably the least likely of the things but you got to remember like i think people kind of miss this with coaches i think the great example of people missing this is with harbaugh like projecting the chargers to run 900 times like coaches like to win the end of the day a reasonable coach a good coach you know i'm not not applying this to arthur smith or or uh adam gaze or whatever but coaches mostly like to win i think lafleur likes to win wicks is their best wide receiver i mean the the results would

indicate wicks is their best player every like every time this guy gets on the field good stuff happens the more you stack those good results the harder it becomes to keep him off the field, particularly if you want to win football games. And so maybe it's not Dobbs. Maybe it's Watson. But I think if Wicks continues to play this well, he definitely could bring Dobbs down to being 75% of the routes instead of 85%. So I'm not going quite as cheap.

So there is a bigger risk here. But my lower end buy was Chris Godwin, who's still just wide receiver 42. I am buying that him going back to the slot is really going to help with him. I'm not sure I'm totally buying Chris Godwin in the Cooper Cup role. But I do kind of expect now that he's going to have more targets than Mike Evans because most of the time we've seen those two guys together, Godwin's earned more targets. It's just that his targets aren't near as valuable as Mike Evans.

I think this could be a situation where he's a number two wide receiver for this year and then Evans is gone and we get another wide receiver one season from Chris Godwin and he's not valued right now as a top get another wide receiver one season season from chris godwin and he's not valued right now as a top 40 dynasty wide receiver uh it's so interesting that godwin has always been a dynasty favorite uh a fantasy football favorite people have always kind of liked him better than his production has been and basically he kind of has like four bad games right for the tempe buccaneers like kind of just like a bad month and people are like it's over and i'm kind of including myself in that honestly it's not like i'm like jazzed to be buying chris godwin my only concerns would be

dave canalis leaving the buccaneers like how much of that magic was dave canalis could be that that next offseason we're're like, Oh yeah, we were all kind of freaking out about Dave canals. And it turns out he just, it didn't matter. Like he, he didn't fix anything in Carolina. And,

uh, I mean, Liam Cohen has a pretty good track record actually. So I, I see it. Uh, I will, I will ask you this.

Are you worried about the jail and Macmillan drum beat? That, that would be, that would be my perspective on it. I'm not really. I think that he is a long-term play. I think it's great that he's looking good. I don't think, unless Chris Godwin or Mike Evans get hurt, there's just not a way that a guy like that comes in and is taking targets away from those two.

And I think we saw, like, this was the second time in Godwin's career where the touchdown rate has just been minuscule, and that's kind of crushed his fantasy ranking versus his actual production. But I think we saw late in the year that he and Baker Mayfield finally kind of got on the same page. He out-targeted Evans. Or remember his wife posted an Instagram story basically being like, why are they not giving my husband the ball? And then he got like 11 targets the same page. He out-targeted Evans. Remember his wife posted an Instagram story basically being like, why are they not giving my husband the ball?

And then he got like 11 targets the next week. It worked. So maybe she should do that before week one this year. We've got one more dynasty buy from Davis Matic and it is a doozy. Gabe Davis, wide receiver 78.

Please tell me that this doesn't mean you're out on Brian Thomas because I am very in on Brian Thomas. No, I'm out on Kirk. I'm out on Kirk. Out on Christian Kirk. Out on Kirk and out on Ingram at cost. I just straight up prefer, actually, I think your boy Jake Ferguson is probably better actually than Evan Ingram right now.

So the Gabe Davis thing is based on two things the first being it's very hard to buy a wide receiver for a third round pick who like literally is going to run about 97 of the routes like gabe davis basically never comes off the field when he's healthy he is an incredible run blocker he's very fast he is not a great route runner like i wouldn't say getting open is like the thing he does best but he's just like pretty steady and the jaguars at least have been paying lip service to the idea of using him as a more complete wide receiver like giving him a fuller route tree maybe they will maybe they won't but the particularly in these best ball leagues that

i'm in i mean i play in all the formats i i am a true dynasty virgin right i've got i literally probably 25 fantasy teams if i counted but the best ball league specifically i mean a 2025 third for like i'm getting a minimum of two spike weeks a minimum with upside for like way more like i he's like the cheapest full-time wide receiver in fantasy football right now like based on my reading of the market and i think full-time is an important distinction like i would not be surprised if he's playing 85 90 of the snaps it might be kind of a romeo dob situation where we would like please sit down and let the other guys play more but i don't think he's going to because he's he's someone who's probably a better football player than fantasy football player but i i definitely agree like in best ball he's going to have some spike weeks my my last

really cheap dynasty buy and it's it's really more of just a red shirt season probably but keaton mitchell not ready from he's his knee injury last year he He has old Derrick Henry in front of him. He has old Justice Hill in front of him. He was electric. He was lower volume Devon Achan last year when he got touches. And hopefully he'll be fully ready by 2025. He is currently RB63. I'd like to buy him and just sit him on my bench for the rest of the year,

especially if I can just sit him in IR. It doesn't even cost me a roster spot. Very cheap. I will say I am so deep that maybe this is me being best ball brained. I'm legitimately

excited about Rasheen Ali if he makes the 53-man roster for the Ravens. That could be that could be total best ball brain like i i've just it's two in the weeds right it's it's two in the weeds to be like this four-year player who missed a season for like basically like mental health stuff at marshall uh ran track by the way he took it took a year off of football and ran track at marshall um and it was a weird profile of a guy to get drafted in the fifth round like normally he'd be a udfa so i think the ravens

see something but that i mean that's that's really it that's that is it's probably too uh that's that is too inside baseball i think officially rashid molly is good at baseball uh yeah i mean i again that's why like there's so many different ways to play this game. So many different formats. Like that's why we can talk about 400 different players. We did have a question in the chat and there's been so much fighting that you've caused that I can't even find it, but I'm going to ask you, like somebody said and I think that was asked this question two months ago and basically said, I don't know. We're going to figure that out during the college football season. But how's the 2025 draft looking for rebuilding teams, stacking assets?

And if you have an answer to that, I'm going to let you give it. But I'm also going to ask, do you kind of ascribe to the philosophy that next year's draft class always runs through these cycles where it's definitely not. 2023 was supposed to be the greatest class of all time. And then it wasn't. And then the 2024 class was supposed to be bad. And it ended up being like 13 deep of blue chip players because, you know, but what I would say is right now it looks pretty bad.

It looks, it looks like I would be sending out 2025 picks to get blue chip players because the big, the big difference specifically for what we do, a lot of these leagues are super flex. The quarterbacks stink. They, that's what I was.

That's the distinction I wanted to make. I think I'm in one quarterback leagues, I'm not ready to make that statement that it's worse at all than 2024. Maybe worse at wide receiver. I think- Well, but Luther Burden is a Marvin Harrison Jr. tier prospect, I think.

So just having a guy who immediately will come in and be a top 25 asset in startups juices up a class for sure and much better potential at this point at least in the running back class um which is not saying a lot because we didn't love the well spoiler spoiler alert if you play in a league with me and you want to get ashton jean t you are you are not going to get him. I will be, I will be moving heaven and earth and everything in between to get as many Ashton Ginty shares as I can. That is not a name that I think anybody thought we were going to hear on this show.

He's so good. Yeah. If you have not treat yourself today during lunch, just watch like five minutes of Ashton GintT highlights at Boise State. You came for dynasty buys. You got 2025 analysis. So we're going to settle on right now. It definitely looks worse for super flex leagues. It's undecided, but better at running back for one QB leagues. Davis, before you go.

And again, I always appreciate you coming on. Just kind of tell everybody what you've got coming up for the season. And for people who tuned in late, remind them where they can find your work uh i actually will be streaming this afternoon at noon central over on my my youtube channel we'll be doing some best ball mania drafts basically i'm going to be streaming every day from now into the beginning of the nfl season so uh if you if you are hanging around you like you like all that stuff you can get that there and then all of my content written content rankings you know all that premium stuff is over on my patreon uh very very simple it's just like every redraft years i mean you guys know you're

you're all experienced fantasy managers all that stuff is over on patreon.com davismatic thank you to everybody who listened to the podcast thank you to everybody who almost everybody who was active in the chat today oh thanks nada thanks davis and for these guys i'm heath we will talk to you next tuesday paramount podcasts