Fantasy Football Today - FFT Dynasty - Riskiest Players Heading into 2025 Offseason including Anthony Richardson, Tee Higgins & more

Episode Date: December 28, 2024

Heath Cummings and Sam Wagman break down the riskiest dynasty players heading into the 2025 offseason. Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday SUBSCRIBE to FFT Express on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-express/id1528634304 Follow FFT Express on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6qyGWfETSBFaciPrtvoWCC?si=6529cbee20634da8 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 FOLLOW FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 SUBSCRIBE to FFT DFS on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dfs/id1579415837 FOLLOW FFT DFS on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5zU7pBvGK3KPhfb69Q1hNr?si=1c5030a3b1a64be2 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." Visit the betting arena on CBSSports.com for all the latest sportsbook reviews and sportsbook promos. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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How can you match that? Check out PrizeMatcher and see why it's never ordinary at Bet365. Must be 19 year old or Ontario only. Please play responsibly. If you or someone you know has concerns about gambling, visit connexontario.ca, T's and Z's apply. Welcome to Fantasy Football Today Dynasty. I am your host, Heath Cummings.

Joined today by my friend, Sam Wagman. Sam's been on the show multiple times in the past, or at least this is his second time on the show. Sam, tell everybody where they can find your work. Well, you can find all my work over at Football Guys. You can find me yelling about fantasy football on Twitter slash X, whatever it is at swagman95. But yeah, happy to be here.

Thank you for having me on. Hope you had a Merry Christmas and everything's going well for you fantasy wise. I had a very Merry Christmas. I wouldn't say everything's going well for me fantasy wise. I made the mistake of tweeting about one of my lineup decisions last night. And so now I'm gonna share my pain with you, but I thought, you know,

I got to play Zach Charbonneau. He's started four games this year. He's averaged 22 fantasy points per game. I'm going to play him. I'll figure out who to bench later. Charbonneau scored 10 points. Now I have to bench one of Bucky Irving, James Cook, AJ Brown, Brian Thomas, or Mike Evans.

And the thing is, I think one of those five guys is probably going to score James Cook, AJ Brown, Brian Thomas, or Mike Evans. And the thing is, I think one of those five guys is probably gonna score fewer points than Charbonnaded. Yeah, I don't know exactly how I feel about that. I personally would have sat Charbonnaded. I had just a weird feeling that nothing was gonna go right for either team last night. I did say, I put on Blue Sky that I was too scared to put it on Twitter. So I put it on. That's what I do.

Whenever I have a take, that is too frightening to share with my 5,000 or 6,000 plus followers on Twitter. I put it on Blue Sky for my 1 or, or however they are on there. And so I won't get flames when it's bad, but it ended up being right. I did, I did say that I'm afraid that he lays an egg and I think 10 points is, is a certifiable egg when it, when you had a lot of people labeling him kind of one of the starts of the week there and it, it made sense, but I was worried about the injury, the oblique, those obliques take time to go away. Just the offense was terrible. The Seahawks offensive line is awful. It is not a good line. And the Bears are a competent defensive line. That was always that was always the issue there. I didn't think it was going to be 6-3,

but I did think... I'm also the person who said Cale Williams over one and a half passing touch ends was the best bet you could make last night. So take my advice for the grain of salt there. But yeah, I don't know. I think you probably have to start AJ Brown. I think he would be the one that people say to sit the most given given that No, Jalen hurts, you know most likely but um, I Don't know. I might be inclined to sit James Cook in a matchup where they might not need him as much and Those you know get up early. Those are the two that I've flip-flopped back and forth between AJ Brown and Jalen hurts It'll probably come down to me making a terrible decision on Sunday afternoon,

looking forward to that. So it turns out Zach Charbonneau was a risky player to play in week 17. And today's dynasty show is all about the riskiest players in dynasty as we head into the off season. And we always start of course, with three questions for our guests. And I'm going to go in a different order than how I gave it to you. So I want to know like who's the one player that everyone else Sam might think of as safe in dynasty that you really think has some real risk that his value could drop this off season. Well, I don't know. I don't know

if he's completely considered safe anymore. Uh, Chris O Chris Olavi for me is the player is the player that I think his his value has been trending down almost for like a year plus now. You know, nobody was really confident in their car coming in. Everyone's less confident now, but at least people thought he could probably be a wide receiver one, like still in his career, you know, lead a team in offense. I don't feel that way. We saw him outplayed by Rashid Shaheed this year in multiple spots. You know, we've seen very good wide receivers are able to overcome the deficits around them, be it a quarterback, be it an offensive scheme, be it, you know, just subpar play calling. I don't think Chris Olavi has been able to overcome any of that in the past year, year

plus. And I'm officially worried about him as an asset. I've moved, I've moved off of him over the past few months in any remaining dynasty leagues. I still had him in and I'm just, I'm not sure that he's ever going to be anything more than a top 20 option. Maybe, maybe he sneaks into the top 15, uh, you know, with a competent quarterback, but the saints are destined for, you know, basically cat, you know, cap hell for the next several years. The, the quarterback situations and flux, they don't have a head coach. Clint Kubiak's system was good for Derek Carr, but it wasn't good for Chris Olave. So I think you have

a lot of questions there on an asset that people viewed as probably one of the safest heading into the last couple of years. And I think that that opinion has probably drastically changed over the last 12 months. I know it's drastically changed over the last 12 months. I know it's drastically changed over the last four months, given what we've seen from him. So I think Olave is a very, very scary dynasty asset. So that's really interesting because I think the public perception, especially if you're talking about like where he's probably ranked for most people right now versus where he could be this time next year is a real risk. He is actually, I believe, one of my biggest fallers at wide receiver.

I'm right now working on my 2025 dynasty rankings that I'm going to try to have ready for new year's day or at least the day or two after that. And I'm looking at where I had Chris Olavi ranked last January and he was wide receiver eight and he is not currently a top 20 dynasty wide receiver for me. So that some of that drops already happened, but I think you're right. There's still, there's still a lot of risks there and a lot of people viewing him as like a surefire top 20 dynasty wide receiver. And I'm not sure that he is.

So I want to, I want to transition for just a moment here. This will be a, of course the dynasty show, but we've got dynasty managers playing in fantasy championships. And we, and we kind of hit on this a little bit at the start. We're expecting Kenny Pickett to start for the Eagles against a Cowboys defense that's been much better over the last month. How do you feel about AJ Brown and Devontae Smith with Kenny Pickett as the starting quarterback this week? Well, I'm completely fine with AJ Brown. I'm a little bit more skeptical of Devontae Smith, but AJ Brown saw a first three target share of nearly 70% last week. For the

vast majority, I believe up until midway through the fourth quarter, he and Devontae Smith were the only two offensive players that had a target for the Eagles. And that was with Jalen going down midway through the first quarter on a very sketchy, very sketchy, very sketchy hit there. But I won't dive too deep into that. I'm currently fine with AJ Brown. I think he's going to be completely fine. He'll get his, they'll scheme targets him however possible.

He's the alpha. Devontae Smith is the more matchup depending guy, you know, in this offense. He always has been. He's the guy that's going to, you know, has the opportunity and potential to snap off, you know, a 50 yard touchdown at any given time. But the thing is, the Eagles are so run heavy, and they're so not in a position where they're going to have to throw the ball that much because of their offense, because of their defense, and because of the way they run the offense, that I'm not totally sure that he's

going to have that much of a role in this offense with Kenny Pickett there. And I don't think that Dallas is a team that's going to threaten them to the point where he's going to have to play that big of a role. He might still get a touchdown, a deep shot from Kenny Pickett there. But I think the targets are going to be highly heavily concentrated.

The A.J. Brown, take one, Barkley might have 30 touches in this game. This is this is not a matchup that Eagles fans should really be scared of, but it's one they're going to want to win. And I think they're going to try and do that by taking the ball out of Pickett's hands as much as humanly possible. I wouldn't recommend starting him. I don't think he throws for more than, I don't know, 175 yards, maybe a touchdown. But, you know, Dallas is a ballhawking

secondary. They have a very good defensive line that kind of wreaked havoc on the Eagles the last time these two teams played. So I'd be a little bit, I'd be a little bit worried about, about starting Kenny Pickett, you know, in your leagues there this week. I'm a little bit worried about, about starting Kenny Pickett, um, you know, in your leagues there this week. I'm a little bit worried about starting all of the Eagles except for Saquon Barkley. I do think you're pro most people are probably starting AJ Brown. I will say that I benched Devontae Smith for Keenan Allen. So that feels awesome.

What let's take a look a little bit in reverse at 2024. Now who is the one player this year that really changed your mind in dynasty? Jordan Addison. And you know, I will fully admit like, you know, I liked Addison coming into the draft and then, you know, once I saw him during his rookie year, I was a little bit skeptical because it looked like he kind of was just a little bit of a role player and it didn't look like he was going to be a guy that played in every down role of M was, you know, the deep threat that everyone promised he could be plus, you know, a possession receiver, you know, kind of, you know, a la a Cooper Cup type role that could play, you know, in all phases and really put up some massive stat showings. But we've seen it this year. Multiple, multiple hundred hundred yard games, multiple, multiple two plus touchdown games for him. He has been a really, really good weapon.

And I think the biggest thing is that he's done it with Sam Darnold as his quarterback. You know, I think that's not something we would have said coming into the season. Now, obviously, TJ Hawkinson has worked his way back from his ACL injury, but he's still been pretty heavily involved. And it's not just been him, it's been Aaron Jones. It's been other guys in this Viking offense, but Jordan Addison has honestly at a lot of points this year been better than Justin Jefferson,

or at least been more heavily featured than Justin Jefferson. I think that's not something anybody was ready to say coming into the season. I think everyone pegged him as you know, wide receiver three with a lot of upside potential to take over game but not potential to do it every single week. And I think we've kind of moved to the point where we have to consider him a top 15 dynasty wide receiver at this point because

of the upside that he showed during during the bulk of the season with a quarterback that people didn't really see as capable of supporting multiple wide receivers in this offense. So I think that's a really good sign for Addison's dynasty relevance. I do think he'll be drafted several rounds higher in next year's cycle of dynasty drafts and startups than he was this year and this off season. So he's definitely changed my mind. He's definitely someone I'm going to look to be in on and hopefully look to acquire

a little bit of, you know, if I can still get a good price on him. He is currently my number 13 wide receiver in dynasty. Now we'll see where that is next week when I start trying to guess at 2025 projections and forward. But yeah, 100% agree with him being a top 15 guy. And I think there's a pretty good argument for him to be a top 12 guy. We'll see how he finished this season and how he looks in the playoffs. We're going to take a short break.

When we come back, we were going to talk about some of the riskiest guys in dynasty. I wanted to say, like, we do have some suggestions from Twitter for the riskometer, the risko meter, however you want to say it. That will be in our last segment of the show. If you have some guys that you want to see, like how risky do we think they are? Put them in the chat. We'll get to those. If you have questions, specifically dynasty questions, put them in the chat.

We had a little time for that at the end of the show as well. We'll be right back after this break. The all new FanDuel Sportsbook and Casino is bringing you more action than ever. Want more ways to follow your faves? Check out our new player prop tracking with real time notifications or how about more ways to customize your casino page with our new favorite and recently played games tabs. And to top it all off, quick and secure withdrawals. Get more everything with FanDuel Sportsbook and Casino. Gambling problem? Call 1-866-531-2600. Visit connexontario.ca. You know what's great about ambition? You can't see it. Some things look ambitious, but looks can be deceiving. For example, a runner could be training for a marathon,

or they could be late for the bus. You never know. Ambition is on the inside. So that thing you love, keep doing it. Drive your ambition. Mitsubishi Motors. Okay, so any discussion about risk in dynasty needs to start with a couple of, I think, probably obvious takes.

If you're listening to a dynasty show, I assume you already know these things, but just in case you don't inherently risky, any running back, and I probably would have said who's over 27 last year. Maybe I extend it to over 28 now, but running backs who are 28 or older historically speaking have not been as good as they were this year and you have to be ready because one injury at that age can take a running backs valued from must start player to you can't get a third round pick for them in dynasty. So Derek Henry, Alvin Camara, Joe Mixon, Christian McCaffrey, James Connor,

Aaron Jones. We've already seen a couple of these guys break down this year. Those guys inherently risky. I did not put them on the list to discuss because I think you guys know it. I would also say pass catchers who are 30 or older, Tyree kill, Cooper cup, Devante Adams, Mike Evans, Travis Kelsey, George Kittle. That's not to say that these guys can't be must start options can't be league winners. They are just very, very risky and particularly this time of year from really

January through August. I feel really, really nervous about having players of this age on my roster. If you're any, even thinking about a rebuild next year, I would be willing to take a little bit of a discount to trade those players off my roster, maybe around the rookie draft. But let's talk about the riskiest young guys. And I, one of the names that popped up on Twitter several times when I put, put the call out was the only quarterback guy on the list, Anthony Richardson.

And I think people can look and say, well, obviously he's risky. He's been terrible at times. But what makes someone risky is the fact that they have a lot of value that they could lose. And Anthony Richardson is still a top 12 dynasty quarterback for me because he still has the position the ability to score 30 fantasy points any given week. Now he might also score five. But do you think that he's risky over the next four months or so because the Colts might replace him? Yes, I do. I think the problem, the NFL is a quarterback problem. We've seen more than ever that, you know, it's hard to find a quarterback who is good. But once you find a quarterback

that can actually throw the ball and not lose you games because of the way he's throwing the ball, they're more likely to keep them. Unfortunately, Anthony Richardson has not turned out to be that guy. He's got a completion percentage of 47% this year. I don't know if we've ever seen someone play the vast majority of a full season and finish under 50 in completion percentage. I don't know if I've seen that. I'm young, but I don't know if I've ever seen that. I'm cheaply worried that they just cut their losses. You know, it's possible there's a whole new staff in Indianapolis in the next few months.

You know, Jim Ursay has never been shy to stick his nose you know, where it doesn't belong into personnel matters. So wouldn't shock me to see Shane Stiken gone, it wouldn't shock me to see Shane Stikken gone. It wouldn't shock me to see Chris Ballard gone. I don't really know what to think there. They're not going to run Joe Flacco out there again, but they could go with the bridge quarterback. They could be the ones to sign Sam Darnold. We don't know. But I would rather have Sam Darnold than I would Anthony Richardson if I was the Colts. I can't imagine there are many people who wouldn't do that. And that alone is a massive reason why Richardson has

to be the riskiest young quarterback that there is. The upside that he offers you simply doesn't outweigh his risk of just throwing three picks, humbles, all these things that have been issues with him, you know, just missing short, simple passes, wanting to chuck the ball downfield too much, you know, inaccurately. These are all things that we've seen Richardson do continually this year. And though it's been less since the benching, he really hasn't played that much better since he came back. So I'm very, very worried about Richardson.

Okay. So we, I, um, while you were talking, I did, I did look it up. I cannot see a quarterback since 1998 that has thrown at least 300 passes and has a completion percentage below 50%. So that's, that's a long time ago. Now it happened a bunch. It's happened 101 times in NFL history. Um, so this was a thing that used to be fairly, fairly common. Carrie Collins did it in both 1995 and 1998. Uh, drew Bledsoe did it in 1993. Vinny Testaverde did it in 1988. Warren Moon, 1987.

Like this has happened with some guys. There's a Phil Sims, 1980. Yes, but not really in the last 30 years. I think that's the cheap issue here is that recently it has not happened. Yes. Now, yeah, I will say I'm still probably more of a buyer than a seller on Richardson just because the upside is so high. He's a, he's an interesting quarterback because if you don't view him as a starter in a one quarterback league, it's hard to say this, but I do think his value might be better in a one quarterback league than it is in a one quarterback league. It's hard to say this, but I do think his value might be better in a one quarterback league than it is in a super flex league because in super flex, it's really hard to carry a guy who might as a quarterback to value a guy as a

quarterback who could lose his job in the next four months in one QB. I don't really care about the floor. I'm just looking to go find a guy who could be a league winner. And Anthony Richardson could still, like, if you told me that Anthony Richardson was going to go score 35 fantasy points this week, it wouldn't really, and finishes QB one overall, it wouldn't surprise me when Adam Azer, I'm facing him in a league and Azer has Baker Mayfield and Anthony Richardson, and I know he's going to start Baker Mayfield.

And I'm kind of glad he's going to start Baker Mayfield and I'm kind of glad he's going to start Baker Mayfield. Cause I'm kind of scared of what Anthony Richardson might do to me. So yeah, it's, it, it is, he is definitely a, if you can get him, I think in super flex for less than a first round pick, then you must do it. Um, but I, a couple of seconds for a guy like that, that could be that good. Certainly. But there's a lot of risk. I've got three running backs and it's really just a profile.

Um, it's not necessarily a profile that all these guys share, but Bucky Irving, chase Brown, Tyrone Tracy. It's the young running back who was a day three or UDFA who could be replaced at any minute, like those guys just almost every year we have them pop off. And then the next year they get added competition. And one thing that we kind of noticed coming into this year was that it seems to happen more when there's a coaching change. If, if the coach who had you when you were found money stays there, they're more likely to stick with you.

If there's a coaching change that more likely to be a running back change as well, I guess Tracy would be the one we'd have the biggest concern about a coaching change, right? Yes. Yes, absolutely. Do you feel like Bucky Irving and Chase Brown are, because they're the way they're performing and their age. And if you don't think about anything else, that's probably a

top 12 dynasty running back. Yeah. So do you think that's valid for those two guys? Yeah. I want to talk about Irving first chiefly because I don't really have any concern. I, I think there were a lot of people who had Bucky Irving as their RB one in this class coming into the draft season. And then he dropped off a lot of boards due to his size and some measurables that weren't great. But there really weren't a

ton of concrete reasons why people dropped him down their rankings a lot. And I don't think he ever really deserved to be a day three pick in the draft, which is kind of why I'm perfectly okay with him. He's looked absolutely fantastic. He stole this job. He robbed this job from Rashad White. He didn't take it. He didn't earn it. He robbed it. He straight up went in, stole it, and he has played absolutely fantastic no matter the defense. Really has looked really, really good despite playing half the season and kind of an accessory role. But I think that he's an absolute, you know, star. I think he'll, he has no, no issue of losing his spot. Chase Brown, I would be a little bit less concerned about, but as long as Ax Taylor stays there, I think his job is safe too. They've given him all the work. They haven't cycled a backup in for him. I would be a little bit concerned about touch fatigue for him,

heading into next season, given the fact he's averaging an average of 25 touches a game, something like that, since Zach Moss went down. But I think that he's very solid, too. I think everyone thought that Brown was in store for a big season this year. And a lot of those people were really right on the noggin there.

And none of the offensive issues have been on him. He hasn't had a fumbling issue. He hasn't had any of those issues. He's really good. And he's very solid in pass protection. So he kind of clears up a lot of the issues you have with these day three running backs that up a lot of the issues you have with these day three running backs that get a lot of volume late in the year and lose their jobs the next

year. Unfortunately, you know, Tracy, I'm a little bit I'm just skeptical of because, you know, he's that converted wide receiver who is still learning how to play running back, but he's going to lose his head coach. he's gonna lose his general manager, most likely I would say both of them are gone. There's gonna be a new quarterback in town, you know, the offensive line was fine, but you know, the Giants are gonna look to a rebuild. So I think that's probably the best case scenario is that it's a full rebuild and he stays because he's cost controlled asset. and they have no reason to

spend draft capital or free agency money on another running back while they're clearly going to be mired in a rebuild for the next couple of years. You basically have no risk for Bucky Irving, a little bit of risk for Chase Brown and a whole lot of risk for Tyrone Tracy. Yeah. Yeah. And I think, I think Tracy does have a chance to keep his job given the fact that he has looked very good at, you know, creating his own yards, um,

this year, but he would still be, he would still be the massive risk for me. It's a couple of wide receivers here. And I had a hard time finding risky wide receivers as you should because that's probably the safest position in dynasty but there are a couple of guys that I think depending on how you value them could be major risks. One is T Higgins heading into another off season with an uncertain contract. A lot of minor nagging injury issues over the last two or three seasons could be not playing with Joe burrow anymore. We'll, we'll have to see how that goes.

I would guess they're probably just going to franchise them again. And then is he playing through injuries? If he's being franchised again, we'll find out. And then, and then the other one's rushy rice. And I know like, obviously the injury is one thing to come back from. And then there's the question marks over whether we have a suspension coming at the start of next year, which I think you probably do. And then you have Xavier worthy kind of doing his Rashi rice impression

at the end of this season, like looking like he's fulfilling his promise as a first round draft pick. Not to mention Hollywood Brown. Well, Hollywood Brown's on a one-year deal, so he might be gone. That's true. So between Higgins and Rice, do you share any concern with those guys? I think a lot of people probably value them as top 20 dynasty-wide receivers. Where are you at?

Can you refresh my memory here on Rice? Was that a multi-ligament injury or was that just ACL? I think it was just ACL. Okay, I'm less I'm way less concerned if it's just an ACL. I happened early enough in the year. I think you should probably be cleared sometime this summer. And I think he should be fine. I'm not too worried about him because he's attached to the best quarterback in the sport and the best offensive coordinator in the sport. I really am not that concerned with Rice.

I'd be way more concerned about a guy like Tankdale than I would with Rashid Rice, kind of on the same track there, Young Stud in their second season. But Higgins, I think someone's going to throw a bag of money at Higgins. I don't know. I'm not totally sure that the Bengals are going to spend, what would it be, 27, 28 million to franchise him probably. Will they do that when it's inevitable that he would leave if they franchise him? I don't think they have any intention of signing him to a long-term deal because of those injuries and because of the fact that they're an inherently cheap franchise. I think they know that Jamar Chase is the alpha. They have a lot of guys

on their defense that they'd like to lock up there, some guys on the offensive line as well, and then obviously Burroughs' massive contract. And the state of their franchise is that they're ready to compete, but they need the defense to get better. And that's where they need to spend money on that side of the ball. So I'm not sure that they're willing to throw $65, $70 million at their two-star wide receivers. I think they'd rather just let one of them walk and rebuild through the draft and you know, maybe maybe somewhat small purchases and free agency. So I think someone's going to throw a bag of money at Higgins. And that makes me that makes me nervous of where he could go. You know, we could we could see

him go to the Patriots. We could see him go to the Cowboys Panthers. We could see him go to the Panthers. These are some of these are spots that could be great. You know, Drake may could be good. The Panthers would be kind of bad. The commanders could be could be an interesting spot. I mean, so I'm not really sure. I think Higgins is definitely like a wait and see kind of where the wind blows over the next couple months for him. But I'm mostly OK. I've always been a believer in his talent and he plays through all those injuries anyway. So unless it's something like that really happens seriously to him, I'm not too worried.

But and I don't think I would be that worried about Rice either. You know, I think I'm with you. Wide Wide receivers technically very stable unless something really, really bad happens or, you know, a move is very, very unfavorable. And I don't see really any of that here. So just to clarify on Rice's injury, it was an LCL only. So the ACL was intact. The MCL and meniscus were fine. It was his lateral collateral ligament and that had a recovery time of

four to six months. So injury should not really be a concern going into next year. Target competition might be suspension might be, but long-term rice should be good to go. The only tie end I had on the list, Dalton concave and it, it Kyle Pitts though, right? What happened to be worried? We have to be worried about pits at this. Have we not, have we, are enough people still holding out hope? I mean, I think there are still some people that are holding out hope that we should, we should say something about Kyle Pitts because it's, this is bad.

This is bad. He, he has, I mean, I think he should have been on the list last year. Um, he has fallen outside of my top 12 tight ends in dynasty. So it's hard to have a lot of risk if that's your value, but yes, I agree with you. If people are still valuing Kyle Pitts as a top six dynasty tight end, then he is the riskiest player in all of dynasty. Maybe I should go check DLF while you talk about Dalton Kincade, but Kincade kind of feels like he's on that same path.

Like he's a consensus top five tight end in dynasty. He was some people's number one tight end coming into the year. He's had another year of just completely lackluster production. Lots of opportunity, very few fantasy points. I am sure that through this offseason, I have little doubt the most popular breakout pick at the tight end position next year is going to be Dalton Kincaid. If we go a month and he doesn't do that, does his value finally start to drop? Yes, and this is worrisome because he was my tight end one coming into the year.

One of my favorite players to target on almost all of my redraft leagues this year, you know, grabbed them everywhere I could. And I watched as he did nothing. Four points, five points, eight points, 12 points that one week, he caught a touchdown, nothing. I mean, just and then the injury and the offense, the offense being run heavy and just all these factors seemingly working against them. And still the one pervasive thought that I have in my head is maybe he's just taking the three years that we've used to see from tight ends to kind of adjust the NFL because he was really just, he was a wide receiver playing the tight end position coming out of college and maybe he's just learning that he's still learning the nuances. But that was the excuse I use this, this past off season.

So I don't know, I want to be positive, but because, you know, Buffalo's target competition is so lackluster there, you know, Keon Coleman is there, but Amari Cooper probably won't be next year. But Dawson Knox still plays a healthy role. The Bills want to run the football. I mean, these are all bad, bad things. So I'm not sure. I think we have to run the football. I mean, these are all bad, bad things. So I'm not sure. I think we have to wait and see, but I would still, if you can, I would try to move off of them, you know,

and try and get like a first. I would slam dunk a first for Kincaid at this point. I'm not sure if I I'm not sure if I can stomach holding onto him and seeing this another year. But the target, the scarcity at tight end is once again, rearing its ugly head to be a factor. You know, you have possible retirements this off season and Travis Kelsey hasn't looked that good. And really the only old guy that's looked good is George Kittle and John Smith, which still makes no sense to me.

It's been three months and I still don't understand. No, no, I will say I just checked December ADP John Smith, which still makes no sense to me. It's been three months and I saw. I will say I just checked, um, December ADP from our friends over at dynasty league football, Dalton concave is tied and eight, which is actually to look like he's tied at tight end seven with Mark Andrews. So, and tight end 10 is where Kyle pits is. There's still a little bit of risk for both of them at that spot. But that's the lowest I've seen concave in ADP or rankings. Probably since he was- I almost think that's a buy. I almost think that's a buy at tight end eight because again, the scarcity plays the whole role here, right? So, you know, if we, if we, if we take into account that Kelsey continues to

tumble down the rankings a little bit, given the fact that he's, you know, and he's behind those guys in the tight end 12. Yeah. So, so who's ahead of him? So who do we have the top of our head of them? Okay. Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, Sam Laporta, TJ Hawkinson, David Adjoku, George Kittle, Mark

Andrews. And Joko is interesting. And Joko is interesting for me. He and Andrews might be the only guys that I would I would rank outside or behind King Kate at this point, simply because Andrews is a use when necessary. And red zone target only you're basically praying catches a touchdown or a 70 yard random pass or a you know, it is not useful. And and Joku is very interesting because he's a low a dot guy who doesn't catch many touchdown passes. So if he's minimized, then

then it's unfortunate. So, you know,. The quarterback situation in Cleveland is completely up in the air. Nobody knows what's going on there. I would almost consider Dalton Kincaid to buy a tight end eight only because the unknown is better than the known to some degree. I don't know if there's a whole lot of room between those three assets there, so I would label Kincaid a buy a tight end eight simply because the offense he plays in and you know, we know that he can play a very strong route running role in this offense, but we need to see it. We do need to see it.

So let's take our second break. And when we come back, we'll get to the risk O meter with some suggestions from Twitter and we'll answer a few of your questions from the chat Get groceries delivered across the GTA from real Canadian Superstore with PC Express Shop online for super prices and super savings try it today and get up to $75 in PC optimum points visit superstore.ca to get started $75 in PC optimum points. Visit superstore.ca to get started. The Paramount Plus exclusive series, The Agency. The CIA sends us out to behave in a dangerous way. Starring Michael Fassbender and Richard Gere.

Whatever it takes, make it impossible. The Agency, new series now streaming exclusively on Paramount Plus. We are back and Dustin had three names for the risk-o-meter. Kyle Pitts, who we just talked about, Najee Harris, and Trevor Lawrence. Excellent, excellent suggestions. I'm just going to give the cost on these guys to help you decipher the risk. Trevor Lawrence in most recent ADP, QB19.

Interesting. I like, I don't think there's a ton of risk with Lawrence. I'm intrigued to see what they do. Again, the coaching staffs play a huge role, right? We have to assume that Shaod Khan will fire Doug Peterson. And hopefully Trent Balke once the season is over. I don't know because i love the i love the supporting i love the cast in jackson. You know take bigsby and trevor etn form a very nice one two punch receiving and rushing there running the ball and. Brian thomas juniors obviously going to be a superstar.

Christian Kirk and Parker Washington can play kind of supporting roles there. And they just have to find another kind of outside receiver there. And then you have still have Evan Ingram and Breton Strange. It'll look good. So I think that the supporting cast is fine. I think it's just, can Trevor be who they're paying

him to be and he'll have another couple of years to do that. So I had the contract that makes, makes this a lot safer than, than maybe it should be. Uh, I think a new coaching staff could invigorate Trevor a little bit. If you get someone, um, you know, very offensive minded in there. I am old enough to remember when Doug Peterson was going to help Trevor Lawrence's dynasty value because we just had to get a new coach in there. Yes. Yeah.

Those were good times. Those are some good times. Those are some good times. I do miss them. So I agree. So maybe Ben Johnson will come to save the day. QB19, I do not see a whole lot of risk there. It's about where I have him in dynasty.

Najee Harris is still is RB 21 and that seems extremely risky. I don't even know for sure that he's going to be a lead running back next year. He probably will be, but I don't know where. That's a high risk for me. Yes. Yeah. A lot of risk, a lot of risk with Najee Harris there. I mean, but here's the thing, if he stays in Pittsburgh, I don't see a scenario where he's not at least getting what, 60%, 65% of the rushing touches again. So, cause Tomlin's clearly not going away from him. Our Arthur Smith, Arthur Smith is running a good scheme for him almost because you know, that's one that's always going to favor a running back and the rushing abilities.

You just have the, uh, the downside. He's going to slot Cordero Patterson in there a few more times than he should per game. I, yeah, I guess I agree with you. I, I think if he stayed in Pittsburgh, he'd probably have a similar role. It's just that this year he is RB 29 on a per game basis and he's going to be 27 years old and it doesn't seem like we usually rank guys higher in dynasty than they finished in redraft at that age, that position. Yeah. I think it's difficult.

I, I'm, I want to say that he is going to lose his job, but I've, I've seen nothing to really deter, deter me, deter like me from thinking that he's going to lose his job. Uh, I just, I don't know. Like despite the fact that Jalen Warren continues to look better, they continue to throw Najee Harris out there in early down packages, and they just continue to throw them out there 15 to 20 times a game. So, you know, is this a case where we as we as dynasty managers know better than Arthur Smith? Probably.

But Arthur Smith is going to do what Arthur Smith wants to do. So I think that's the issue there. If he does leave Pittsburgh, where does he go? Dallas. Yeah, maybe. Dallas is a spot. That's the other thing. It's a very risky year for anybody going to free agency as a running back because we

get a lot of good running backs coming in in this class. So that will be interesting as well. I did want to get to this one because Curtis uh, Curtis asked about Tyrone Tracy, who we already talked about, we're very, put him very high on the risk. Oh, meter. But then he also asked about Brice Hall and Brice Hall. Most recent ADP comes in as RB five behind Gibbs, Bijon, Barclay and a Chan. He has not really, uh, delivered this year on the, on the upside, but that's kind of in the case for most of the jets.

There could, there's going to be a new coach there. There might be a new quarterback there. Is there a risk that things are even worse for Bijon or for Brees? Is there a risk that RB five just looks ridiculous a year from now? I don't know if it looks ridiculous. I think his floor might be might be top 10. I think that might be just more top 10 maybe top 12. I don't know. Like, can you is this is a situation where you say is the situation going to end up

being worse than talent? I don't think it will be I think Bruce Hall's talent. And I think people kind of forgot what Breeze Hall can really do and what he can do behind a competent offensive line. I think that's probably the crux of the issue is the offensive line was not a good blocking offensive line for run blocking this year. He still did a lot of damage to the passing game most of the time. And he did have some spots where he showed through the running game. But I think all the running backs really struggled rushing the football for this team. I mean, Braylon Allen is a bowling ball at 240 pounds, and he wasn't able to get going, you know, at that time. So I think a lot of the offensive struggles here, a lot of dysfunction with Salah being fired

halfway throughout the year. The team is being run by two 15-year-olds. I mean, there's a lot of dysfunction with this team. I think it's going to be really interesting to see what they do in the next four months. But I don't think Breeze Hall is that risky. What's the risk What's the chance that a year from now? We two guys we just talked about Bucky Irving and chase Brown are ranked higher than Breeze Hall and Dynasty

Pretty low 25% 25% okay. Yeah, but I'll take those odds. Let's get to the chat. We've got a couple, a couple questions here. We'll go more, more rapid fire on the chat questions. John has a good question and I almost put CJ Stroud on the riskometer, but, but yeah, I just, he, he actually asked after his sophomore slump, which rookie QB worries you the most zero chance that I'm paying up for Bo Nicks at current cost. And I think that's, that's a good name to throw out there current cost. It looks like an ADP Bo Nicks in December QB 14 CJ Stroud, QB 13. Is there is there a rookie quarterback you're worried that's going to kind of pull

the stroud, be really good in year one and struggle in year two? Well, QB 14, I just want to say I would buy all day on bone exit QB 13. The rushing upside, the passing upside, Sean Payton's offense, the possibility that he's not working with Cortland Sutton as his top wide receiver and his only solid wide receiver next year. I think these are all very, very good things for Bonex. I'm a little worried about Stroud. I think QB 13 is really fair for him.

I think it was also very unfair for us to put him at QB 5 last year. He doesn't really run. He ran a lot more this year, but the decision making has been pretty suspect. I mean, the offensive line has been terrible. There's no two ways around that. I mean, that interior offensive line has been atrocious for Shroud this year. I'm pretty sure he's taken what? 60 plus sacks, something like that. He's taking a lot of sacks this year. So I don't know. Like I'm, I'm very worried about Caleb Williams.

I'm interested to see where you stand on Caleb Williams. Uh, cause I, you know, part of it, part of it is the bears and they're just eternal stink. Just bring everyone around them down. Part of his decision making doesn't look that great. No, everything that I was concerned about with Caleb Williams coming into the NFL, I remain concerned about. I don't know that he fits the Stroud comparison very well because he's not been particularly good, but he just still like I was told that he's got Keenan Allen and DJ Moore and Roma

Dunze and guys are going to be open and he gets the ball out on time and he just hasn't done that at all. Um, not all of the blinds and not all the sacks are his fault, but too many of the sacks are his fault. Um, so I, I, I'm concerned, but he's still so wildly talented. Um, he's Mike QB eight, which I think is where he is in terms of ADP. He could fall quickly, but you look at the guys right behind him, like Kyler has been very disappointing

this year. We talked about the risk with Stroud's been disappointing with Nick's Brock Purdy, Justin Herbert. The NFL is a QB problem. It right here. Yeah. And, and some of it's been created by the defenses and how they've been played. But I think we had one more here. Go a little bit deeper. Malik Washington and Xavier LeGette, not in the same range for me, but Xavier LeGette, I think is somebody that I am very interested in buying guys like this off of their rookie year at a major discount. And so if I could, if we get late in round two of a

rookie draft and somebody's really wanting to get a player and ready to give up on Xavier LeGette, that's the type of deal I'd be wanting to make. I've got some optimism, but not, I mean, his value has decreased over this year. Would you agree with that? Yeah, absolutely. From where he was as a first round pick in April heading to now. Yeah, absolutely. And then Malik Washington is just an end of the roster guy that if you've got room for him, that's fine. Right? Yeah.

All right. an end of the roster guy that if you've got room for him, that's fine. Right. Yeah. All right. Yeah. I mean, I think you're I think you were hoping for a little bit more from Lake Washington, but they've integrated him a lot. I mean, he had, you know, I was at the I was at the Dolphins 49ers game this past week and route running looked pretty good from him, you know, for where, for where he got the ball and they've integrated him. He's a good fit for this offense. I think that's a good thing as long as Mike McDaniel is there. If something happens to Mike McDaniel, then that becomes really bad because he's not a prototypical wide receiver. I guess we can say he's kind of just one of those speed

option guys. You know that that you want to send down the field or you want to put them in motion jet sweeps end around things like that. You know he can burn a defense. He's good. He's good returning game. But yeah, I don't know. I don't know if there's anything special about him really. That's going to do it for fantasy football today, dynasty. Before we go, though, Sam, I just want to give you one more chance to tell people where they can find your work, what you got coming up. Yeah, absolutely.

You guys can find me on Twitter at Swagman 95. There all the time. And you can find all of my written written fantasy work over at Football Guys. Great place to be. He can attest to that. Absolutely. We've had a lot of football guys. Great place to be. Keith can attest to that. Absolutely. We've had a lot of football guys on this show over the past year. I want to thank everybody who was active in the chat. Everybody listening on the podcast, thanks to Devo.

Thanks to Sam. We will talk to you next Tuesday.