Fantasy Football Today - FFT Express: 10 Players Who Will Let You Down in 2024 (08/02 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: August 3, 2024

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And here we go on Fantasy Football Today Express, talking about the biggest busts in fantasy for 2024. Adam and Jamie here. All right, Jamie, let's talk about some busts. Do you have any at the quarterback position? Yeah, I have three. Their names are Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Jalen Hurts. And because they're all going in round two, I just don't like it. So I'm not going to be drafting them.

And I think you're making a mistake by drafting them that soon. Hmm. Really? Yeah. I mean, I feel like, you know, we say that a lot. Does it, does it end up playing out that way at the end of the year where I feel like, ah, you know what? They're pretty damn good. And a lot of the guys I drafted ahead of them are pretty, pretty bad. You know what I mean? It definitely is all about what what you put around the quarterbacks and the build that you end up with.

Clearly, Mahomes last year was a bust. Joe Burrow, I believe, was going as a top five quarterback. At least early in the process, was a bust. I think if you ended up with a guy that finished the season strong or was a consistent producer from a later spot Dak Prescott for example Jordan Love for example Brock Purdy for example you know any of those guys probably won you a lot of fantasy leagues based on how they performed based on their draft costs so it's going to be you know probably people that are pro QB pro drafting QBs really are going to

argue against that people that are going to you know wait on the position and and end up you know benefiting from that are going to argue that side of it so that's usually the side I come out on most of the time and I just think drafting those quarterbacks in that high of a range and like I said I don't think we're done I don't think you know seeing them 22 23 24 I think right now last last ADP review I did it was 22 23 25 I think you're going to get closer to the top 15. All right. I'm not quite as convinced of that just because I am consistently seeing ADP showing them in the third round and a lot of different websites. I'm only looking at ours, so that's all I can go by.

That would be a huge distinction because in the third round, I don't know, would you still think they're a bust in the middle if they fall to the mid-round three? Not as much. So right now, they're a bust in the middle if they fall to the mid-round three? Not as much. So right now, they're holding pretty strong right now. Actually, no. We've seen a downturn. So Mahomes is still at 22. Allen is now falling to 29. And Hurts is 30.

This is overall. So their ADP is 29-29. And for Mahomes, it is 27. So maybe you're right. I don't know if I'm right. Well, we shall see. There have not been a lot of drafts being done right now maybe right I don't know if I'm right well we shall see there have not been a lot of drafts being done right now but um I don't know I it's surprised it's I'm surprised I'm surprised that they might be available in the third round because I know how people typically

draft but I do think another part of that is like the excitement for CJ Stroud the excitement for Anthony Richardson for Caleb Williams for Jalen Daniels for Brock Purdy. I mean, you know, the value late is really good. If we're just going by performance and just taking ADP out of the equation, the guy that's starting to scare me a little bit is Dak because the longer CD lamb holds out, the more nervous I get. I think you got to probably put Purdy in that discussion too, because he's got a left tackle and a wide receiver holding out. He's not being drafted quite as high, but he's he's getting dangerously close to that range

how about running back busts uh typically for me i'm going to lean toward the you know guys that are getting drafted too soon so aaron jones makes me very nervous being drafted as a starter uh raheem mostard still being drafted as a starter's range you know both those guys you know, both those guys, you know, 29, 32 for 29 for Jones, 32 for most are a James Connors in that range as well, you know, still being drafted a little bit too high. So those are guys I tend to avoid based on where they're being selected. Try to think performance guys that make me really nervous for a bus perspective. It's really just those guys based on their costs. Okay. I, yeah i think uh do you like if you take one of them do you try to take their handcuff or do you try to

take their handcuff yeah i i don't typically take those guys just because of uh again where they're being selected um you can't really handcuff Mostert because I think the better guy goes first. So it's a little surprising to me that Mostert still gets drafted as a number two running back. For Jones, I have not drafted Aaron Jones once. Now, we just did a half PPR mock draft where he really fell, and I was tempted to take him just because he fell. But I just usually draft Ty chandler i think you

drafted chandler if i'm not mistaken in the draft um which i was pissed about yeah did you yeah i don't know i just being like chandler bing i don't know uh and then um in the case of james connor i do draft a lot of trey benson so i don't usually take both those guys let's see if i took ty chandler i did not i was going to but uh schaefer took him one pick before me and then i took khalil herbert all right we're gonna take a break here i'll take that uh yes the other ty chandler fan yes exactly we'll take we'll take a break and then we'll come back and talk about wide receiver busts after this on fantasy football today express miller light the light beer brewed for people who love the taste of beer and the perfect

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Yeah, again, you know, for me, the older receivers, so Devante Adams, Mike Evans are two guys that I tend to avoid, just not drafting a lot of them based on where they are in their careers. They'll still be very good, you know, and, and again, and I know you like to push back on this, but we're talking five or six spots based on ADP and that's kind of where I have it ranked versus the position versus ADP, excuse me. But I just don't really have the expectation that there's going to be a lot of

upside for those guys because of what we've seen 63 receivers since 2014 age, 31 years or older uh only eight have finished in the top 12 and i just don't think the upside is there for them as they enter this portion of their careers we saw it for adams last year dropped four points per game evans actually was better than a lot of people expected but he's somebody that is just you know you're hearing a lot of jaylen mcmillan talk that's another outside receiver that's going to take away some production you're hearing obviously a lot Jalen McMillan talk. That's another outside receiver that's going to take away some production. You're hearing obviously a lot of Chris Godwin talk because he's moving back to the slot.

So competition for targets there and step back for him. I think both those guys are going to be around 14 to 15 PPR points per game. Taking them back into round two, early part of round three is not something I'm planning to do. And I know Evans is starting to fall a little bit. So his ADP may settle in a good enough spot, but still somebody that I tend to avoid.

Yeah, I don't push back, by the way, on the six spots in ADP versus ADP may settle in a good enough spot, but still somebody that I tend to avoid. Yeah. I don't push back by the way, on the, on the six spots and ADP make, you know, versus ADP versus rankings. That is a big deal at that point in the draft that, you know, there's some really good players that you could be passing up.

So I totally get what you're saying there. And how about another one? Same thing, you know, just age. And I think the other two guys are better. That, yeah, I don't know. I mean, just age. And I think the other two guys are better. Uh, that,

yeah, I don't know. I mean, I'm out on Evans for the most part. I'm not as out on Adams and digs. Uh, I, I just,

we don't have time for it, but I still think, I still think Adam's going to get just a ton of targets. And I, you know, a lot of talent evaluators still consider him one of the best receivers in football. So they don't seem to pin last year's on him.

Right. Will he be again? No, again. That's like, you know, older and older and quarterback play. I'm nervous. Okay. Tight ends. I'm trying to think like who scares me the most at that position.

That's not just TJ Hawkinson. No, Kelsey doesn't scare me. I'm not going to draft him first. I'm starting to get a little skittish with Kittle just because of if he's the sixth tight end, I don't want that. We've seen his points per game decline, you know, five years in a row. And if Iuke is healthy and if Debo's healthy and right now Debo hasn't missed

a practice in training camp, you know, so hopefully that's a sign of things to come. Can you really trust Kittle to continue to be as great as he has been? Because he's so efficient. Yeah. Man, those top eight tight ends,

I would guess four or five of them are probably going to hit. There will be some busts in there. I just don't know who. It's kind of hard to say. Ah, man. Well, Pitts is the obvious one if you want to go that route. But it just feels like there's going to be a fun year for Kyle Pitts. Yeah, he's not even going that early.

Najoka is somebody that I don't want to draft. But he's a borderline top-dove guy. I've found so far, and ADP is going to determine this, because I write sleepers, breakouts, and busts the most, I think, of our crew, that there's not a lot of top- end guys that I really am trying to avoid. That's how I feel too. I had so much trouble with busts. Uh, when I, when I was forced to against my will write a bus article. Yeah. And, uh, I also think because the industry is like throws out all the same names,

it's really hard to go. Who are your breakouts? Well, already be, they're like being drafted as breakouts. I can't like, you know, I'm not getting value on these guys. It's just like, I don't know. Everyone's kind of on the same page. Sleepers, breakouts and busts is kind of is getting more difficult because, you know, we do it so early in the process and everyone has sort of the same names. But my advice to you with the tight ends is just to draft all eight of them. Some of them will certainly hit and, you know, you'll cover your bases.

All right, that's Jamie. I'm Adam. Have a great weekend, everybody. We'll talk to you on Monday on Fantasy Football Today. We'll talk to you next week.