Fantasy Football Today - FFT Express - AFC North Preview: Sleepers, Breakouts & Busts for 2025 Drafts!

Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to FFT Express. Let's talk sleepers, breakouts and busts for the AFC North. Adam Azer, Jamie Eisenberg, here we go. Love the AFC North. Should be, I don't know about a lot of breakouts because the guys have already broken out, but a lot of high scoring in this division. We'll find some sleepers, breakouts and busts. Don't worry. Jamie, who do we got in the sleeper category? You've heard me say it a lot. Uh, said your Tillman, you know, I think from what we can potentially get from him, uh, it's a very small sample size, but those three games after Mark Cooper was traded and you know, some different quarterback play. I don't know if

Starting point is 00:00:39 you want to say that better quarterback play from James Winston, but different quarterback play, but you know, that's kind of what Joe Flacco is gonna bring as well. Somebody that's gonna give his receivers a chance to make some plays. And hopefully that's the case for Tillman. So you know what you're getting with Jerry Judy. You know what you're getting with David Njoka, at least based on what we've seen from them. Either in their careers, in the case of Njoka who already played with Joe Flacco

Starting point is 00:00:57 in 2023, if Tillman can be guaranteed to be that second receiver, third target in the passing game, there's a lot to love about his value, which is basically free on draft day. So he's usually one of my last round picks. I'm very excited to generally take him as kind of like wide receiver five, and in some cases, wide receiver six. Okay, that's Cedric Tillman. Again, I really think this is a tough division for sleepers. I don't know if you have any others think maybe Isaiah likely they talked about him coming

Starting point is 00:01:24 becoming a pro bowler this year. Yep. Well, who else anyone jump jump into my I think you know, if you look at it, there's there's some interesting handcuff options here. So if you can say for sure that it's Keaton Mitchell or Justice Hill, or you could say for sure that it's Taj Brooks or Zack Moss or some Ozzy P round like if we knew That there was definitely a second running back on those two teams in particular You would be taking these guys with late round picks. I think there's gonna be some ambiguity in both those backfields Keaton Mitchell probably has more upside than Justice Hill

Starting point is 00:01:58 But Hill was pretty solid in his role as a pass catcher for the Ravens last year despite the fact that they did not throw To the running backs enough. He scored a lot of touchdowns. But obviously if there's an injury to Derek Henry then whoever's the second running back off the board, the guy is going to get more carries is going to be very valuable. And then the situation in Cincinnati, you know, Chase Brown I think is going to still be the workhorse. But we saw what it was in the beginning part of the season when they had a healthy Zach Moss or just really somebody else that they trusted. It was a shared backfield with Moss getting quite a bit of opportunities. And so they draft a running back, they bring, you know, they keep Moss, they bring back

Starting point is 00:02:30 the keep Moss and they go out and they get a guy that they know in some as a Peterine. So I don't think Peterine is the handcuff, but he's going to have an opportunity to make some plays. So those two backfields are definitely of interest. And then in Cleveland, you know, you talked about this on the Wednesday show, the report from one of their outlets that Jerome Ford could open the season as a starter. Well, why not take a flower on him or even Dylan Sampson, you know, one of these late round running back options because Quinshaw and Dutkins, while he has immense upside,

Starting point is 00:02:58 if he struggles or gets injured, Jerome Ford's kind of been there de facto replacement each of the last two years. How about breakouts in the AFC North? So this is easier to sort of qualify because I think you look at a few players, some that have either done it before or some that you know have a chance to do it again. In the case of Caleb Johnson, you know, first time opportunity for him as a running back to stepping into 263 carries vacated by Najee Harris. We know that Mike Tomlin's history has generally been to use one guy.

Starting point is 00:03:23 I think we're definitely going to see two guys and even Jalen Warren could be considered a breakout candidate because we saw 2023. He averaged just over 11 PPR points per game when he was sharing the ball with Harris. He's going to play on passing down. So I think both these guys have an opportunity here. You may wanna say, Jalen Warren can be more of a sleeper, Johnson more of a breakout.

Starting point is 00:03:39 But I like to try and get one of these Steelers running backs and it kind of bothers me like when I don't. It's similar The thing I say about the 49ers receivers like if I can get a Jennings or a Pierce I'll buy get a Caleb Johnson or a Jalen Warren like one of these guys I think is gonna be a strong flex play potential number two running back and if one separates from the other However, it may happen injury passing game work for Warren and PPR a significant amount of touchdowns for Caleb Johnson I think there's gonna be a chance for a number two running back here based on

Starting point is 00:04:08 the way that Arthur Smith runs his offense. So there's a chance for one of these guys to have sort of breakout and then I'll stay with the same team. And DK Metcalf clearly was problematic last year, injuries, got outplayed by JSN down the stretch. This could be one of his best years ever, based on how Aaron Rodgers leans on his top target. So there's a chance here for DK Metcalf to sort of remind you of who he was

Starting point is 00:04:31 earliest career when a lot of people were talking about him as the best receiver in dynasty. There was that much upside for him in his first couple of seasons. So I think there's a chance for Metcalf to have sort of this breakout season. Jerry Judy based on what he showed in this sample size with Jamis Winston could easily be a breakout candidate if he could do it over 17 games top five receiver last year in those stretch of games to close the season with Jamis Winston you're getting him at basically wide receiver 25 through 30 in that range depending on the ADP look at huge upside there for him so

Starting point is 00:04:59 chase Brown another breakout candidate you know again sort of did it last year but if you could do it over 16 games, 17 games, you know, how exciting would that be based on how we finished the season when he was getting over 20 touches per game playing over 80% of the snaps, you know, pretty easily. Huge upside there for him as well. All right, quick break here. And we'll talk about some potential busts. Oh, wait.

Starting point is 00:05:21 No, before we go to break order of business here. I put up a Twitter poll last week. Can you be a breakout as a rookie? I thought this was last week was only three days ago. Can you be a breakout as a rookie? dismayed by the results 62% say yes 38% say no, I am firmly in the no camp. You apparently are in the yes camp. But no, of course you can't be. I mean, what's with you people? Of course you can't be a breakout as a rookie. Also, Zay Flowers I like as a breakout. Really? Yes. Target volume. Volume in general is the only thing holding him back. He is so good. He's incredibly talented. I think they would say I don't disagree with that. Yeah, I mean, on another team, I think the worst case scenario for him

Starting point is 00:06:12 is is Devante Smith, where it's just it's never gonna happen because they don't throw enough. But he doesn't have AJ Brown competing with him. So I feel like this is the year they get him the ball more. They can they got him the ball more earlier in the year. I think they continue that. It's not going to be a huge breakout. I don't think he's a chance to be top 12, but I do think it's a chance to be top 18 ish and be a really good value. I don't see it. Unfortunately. I do think he's going to be one of these guys that his talent never matches his fantasy production because of the team he plays on. Like going out and getting DeAndre Hopkins, going out and

Starting point is 00:06:48 resigning or extending Rashad Bateman. You can't sit here and hype up Isaiah Likely and keep Mark Andrews. Like it just doesn't make sense if it's still Derek Henry and Lamar Jackson. Now if Henry were to get hurt and it's okay Lamar, you're throwing the ball five more times a game, 10 more times a game, whatever that number is, however you wanna say, okay, they're now more pass heavy, which I don't think would be the case, but maybe it does,

Starting point is 00:07:13 then yes, for sure. But the way this team plays offense, I just don't see it. Yeah, sorry, I know where we need a break here and then some busts, but they're a little bit like the 49ers now and they're not going to throw a lot. In fact, the Ravens would be the best bet to have the fewest pass attempts in the NFL. But since Todd Monkin became the offensive coordinator, Lamar Jackson has averaged eight yards per attempt and 8.8 yards per attempt. So they are becoming a team that even though

Starting point is 00:07:40 they're not going to throw a lot, they were going to throw for a decent amount of yards. And Flowers is great after the catch. You just, yeah, he probably needs a few more end zone targets, green zone targets, that kind of stuff. But he's, I, I, I fear the same thing. You, his, his talent will never match his fantasy production or his fans of production will never match his talent, but I'm, I'm hopeful. All right. A quick break and some busts after this. There's regular cold and then there's the mountains are blue cold. Mountain cold refreshment.

Starting point is 00:08:10 Coors light. The chill choice. Celebrate responsibly. Must be legal drinking age. Okay, who are gonna be some busts in the AFC North? I'm not gonna say Derek Henry. You're not gonna get it out of me again. John Smith is an obvious one. You know, when you just look at where he's coming from to the

Starting point is 00:08:29 place that he's going to Arthur Smith loves John Smith. He just doesn't give Arthur Smith the opportunities that Mike McDaniel gave him and the targets are not going to be there for him in an offense that is still going to have Pat Friar with playing a significant amount of snaps. And I don't think they're done adding to their receiving course. So take that into account with what I said about DK Metcalfe too. But John who I think is, you know, he had top five upside in Miami and I hope people are not drafting him still even as a number one tight end. Like I'd rather have the two rookies in Loveland and more and I'd rather have Tucker Craft

Starting point is 00:09:04 at this point. I'd rather have Jake Ferguson at this point, you know, so he's tied in 16 for me. He dropped basically 10 spots after this, uh, at this rate. I'm just looking at some ADP over the last four days, and this is on NFC John who is still tight in 12. So he's just behind Tucker craft, but he's ahead of Ferguson, Kincaid, Colston, Loveland, likely pits, Goddard. So still a little too early. All right. Wrap it up. We good. Anything else? I can't think of any obvious bus. Oh, was a flowers for me.

Starting point is 00:09:38 Well, he's not that high. That's why he can't say it. But yeah, wide receiver 27. I'm seeing him somewhere, you know, something like that. Love for he's in the blob. He definitely is in the blob, you know, 20 through 40. He belongs there. You say wide receiver 18, right? If things go well for him. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:09:56 Maybe. There have been guys like Brandon Iuk have been top 12 with 110 targets, you targets, 115 targets. That is about what he was on pace for last year. He had one game, I think, week 18, he left early. So it's just the touchdowns. He had four touchdowns last year. They threw 41 touchdowns.

Starting point is 00:10:17 If he can get to seven touchdowns, and he's the kind of guy who might be able to do it because he can run away from people. Yeah. And we're going to have a nice season. He had 116. He had 116 targets last year. It is possible for someone this good to be a top 18 receiver with 116 targets. I will I will say this on Friday's episode. He may have had the best game against the Broncos. Oh, yeah. All right. It's the other thing. He is not going to line up traditionally outside

Starting point is 00:10:42 and get shadowed by Patrick's or tan or anything like that Start him against the broncos cannot believe he was wide receivers 36 for game All right, we'll be out of here. We're out of here now and we'll be back tomorrow. Talk to you on FFT Express. See ya Paramount podcasts

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Fantasy Football Today - FFT Express - AFC North Preview: Sleepers, Breakouts & Busts for 2025 Drafts!

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