Fantasy Football Today - FFT Express - AFC West Preview: Sleepers, Breakouts & Busts for 2025 Drafts!

Starting point is 00:00:00 The AFC West awesome division. We have awesome sleepers and breakouts and some busts. We sure did. We'll tell you right now on FFTX. All right, here we go. AFC West sleepers, Dave Richard. What do we got? Well, first I want to talk about the defenses real quick. I love the Broncos defense a lot this year. I think they're going to be very good. They're my number one DST. Uh, their schedule is actually great to start the year. They play Cleveland. Uh, no, they don't play Cleveland in week one. I looked in the wrong place.

Starting point is 00:00:33 They play Tennessee in week one, even better. They've got cam wards, NFL debut at home in week one, an amazing matchup, an amazing defense, great secondary, great pass rush. Head and shoulders above everybody else in the AFC West, Kansas City's behind them, Chargers closer to Kansas City, and then the Raiders defense, not very good. So some mixed bag when it comes to the matchups in the AFC West. The Sleepers that I like, let's start with J.K. Dobbins in Denver, getting there late in the offseason. I think he's their passing downs guy. I think he's going to replace Javante Williams in that role. RJ Harvey's got a long way to go to earn it.

Starting point is 00:01:08 And I think Dobbins could eat into the rushing downs work with Harvey as well. Curious to see how that works out. But JK Dobbins is somebody that I'm looking for on draft day with a value, value pick Evan Ingram. Also somebody that I'm looking at as a sleeper in Denver, uh, could be the number two target getter behind Cortland Sutton there and could finish as a top 10 fantasy tight end, especially in PPR. And one quarterback that's a sleeper, Justin Herbert, finished so strong last year. And I know that the Chargers added so much to their offense and they're going to want to run the ball.

Starting point is 00:01:40 There's going to be games where you're going to see Justin Herbert throw. I wouldn't be surprised if you see him run a little bit. Uh, I started the off season with him ranked as a top 12 quarterback. He's fallen from there, but he's somebody that I wouldn't mind stashing with my last pick. Dave looking at NFC average draft position where I can set a date range from July 1st through the eighth. at a date range from July 1st through the eighth.

Starting point is 00:02:10 RJ Harvey is RB 23 and JK Dobbins is RB 38. And that is about 50 picks after Harvey. Yeah, I love the value in Dobbins more than Harvey. I've said this before on the main show, Adam, when we were like ramping up for the draft, we never talked about RJ Harvey. And that's not to say that he's a bad player. It's just that he never really got our attention. Now he got Sean Payton's attention. That obviously means a lot more than him getting our attention. And opportunity means

Starting point is 00:02:35 more than anything else when it comes to fantasy football. But just the fact that they went through a couple of OTAs, and then they decided to sign JK Dobbins. Obviously that tells me that they needed something for that running back room that they didn't have on the roster already. And I think that ends up being a factor this year. All right. So how about some breakouts in the AFC West? I think there's really only two that I could buy into and they're both rookie running backs.

Starting point is 00:03:05 So the most obvious breakout candidate is Ashton Gent. He comes into the NFL after a great college career, just a unique talent because he's so stout, strong, shakes off tackles. He's going to be an awesome running back and the Raiders are going to run the ball a ton this year. It's Pete Carroll's way. It's Chip Kelly's way. They got the best running back

Starting point is 00:03:25 in the draft. I think he'll be great. And I think that Amari and Hampton can be a breakout running back as well. I think it'll take a little while, because Najee Harris has been solid veteran for a long time, doesn't really get hurt. It's going to take the Chargers coaching staff, realizing that Amari and Hampton's the better player before they give Hampton the lion's share of the rushing workload. That could potentially happen in September if Hampton outplays Najee in training camp. But I would guess that's something that's gonna happen like mid-October, somewhere in that range.

Starting point is 00:03:58 And I think people are gonna draft Hampton as if he is the main guy to start the year. They might be disappointed in September, but by the time we get to Halloween, they'll be really happy with having Omar and Hampton on their fantasy team. All right. Hampton's going as RB 16, Najee as RB 36 over the last week.

Starting point is 00:04:16 This is not like the Denver situation. I don't look at Najee as the better value here at all. Najee is more of the type of running back that I want. If I'm going zero RB and I just need a running back that's going to get me off to a decent start to begin the year. I think Harris could do that. I don't think he can be a league winner or anything close to that. Anyone else you want to mention as a breakout? I you can make the case for Xavier Worthy after what he did toward the end of last year and what he brings to that Chiefs offense. I'm just

Starting point is 00:04:45 not sure that he's going to run away, pun intended, with being the best receiver in Kansas City. You can make the case for Bo Nix to have a better year than he had last year. You talked about it on our show on, on Tuesday, that, that Bo Nix got off to a terrible start, and then really turned it around. His per game pace was outstanding in the second half of the year. If he can build on that, given the additions to this offense in Denver, then yeah, he could absolutely be a breakout candidate. And Bo Nix is rushing totals really, really help him as well. All right, let's take a break on fantasy football today and let's talk about some busts in the AFC West when we come back.

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Starting point is 00:05:52 Shop great Prime Day deals now. And we're back here on FFT Express. All right, boss in the AFC West. You can make the case, I'm just making the case for two primo tit ends in this division. And you already know who they are. It's going to be Travis Kelsey, and it's going to be Brock Bowers. Bowers, more so based on ADP, his ADP is like in the top 20. I think the Raiders offense is going to change dramatically from what we saw last year. Better quarterback, no question about it. But they couldn't run the ball worth a lick. Now they're going to be able to with Gentian that backfield. And I think we're going to see the Raiders come down and pass

Starting point is 00:06:31 attempts, come down and pass rate. They added two receivers in the draft. They've got more options for the passing game. Bowers can still lead the way. Bowers can still be a Top 3 fantasy tight end, maybe even Top 2, maybe even the Top 1. But I don't think he's worthy of being a Top 20 pick, because I don't know if he'll be able to fully replicate the 8.7 targets per game he had last year, or the 15 PPR points per game that he had as a rookie last year. And with Kelsey, you saw it at the beginning of 2024. Rashid Rice was dominating those inside targets. We're looking at targets inside the numbers. He was crushing it there. He's obviously faster than Travis Kelsey at this point. Better yak candidate.

Starting point is 00:07:10 Kelsey, if he doesn't get touchdowns, you can see what happens to his fantasy production. Could be disappointing, but we're drafting him at a later price point than we were at any point in like the last seven years. So I guess that's already baked into his ADP. I think Kelsey could be horrible. I mean, he showed so much signs of slowing down last year. He's not making guys miss his yak was just dreadful. And he was getting about three or

Starting point is 00:07:37 four targets per game and three games with Rishi Rice. And that was without Marquis Brown at that point. And that was with Worthy barely being a factor. I and he lost his he lost his you know end zone role. In fact Noah Gray was getting as much you know attention in the end zone as Kelsey for at least for a stretch. So I'm just I can't say I'm completely out on him because like you said, he is going later. But you know, I think there's a possibility that 110 targets or something like that doing not much with them. I mean, you could also make the case that he could bounce back just by virtue of 110 targets and six or seven touchdowns.

Starting point is 00:08:21 He could have positive touchdown progression. It could. Yeah. I mean, and he could easily do it because if what were defenses doing at the beginning of last season on obvious passing downs, they were taking Kelsey away. And if, if teams go into this year's thing, all right, we've got a plan for rice. We got a plan for worthy. They might not be able to dedicate the resources that they used to to Kelsey. And Kelsey can still win and contest the catch situations. I like that he lost weight.

Starting point is 00:08:50 So maybe he's a little bit quicker than he was last year. Yeah. Yeah. I don't know. I think if you're drafting him as the fifth or sixth tight end off the board, it's not the worst thing in the world. I'm trying to lose a little weight, Dave. Me too. Oh, yeah, it is You know and and just to go back to Bowers Obviously, I'm not taking him as a top 20 pick in my draft But if I'm at the beginning of round two, he's absolutely gonna be on my radar. I like McBride better But I just you don't want to draft anybody too close to their ceiling And I just think that, it's, it's weird to say that's his ceiling when he, he scored how many touchdowns last year?

Starting point is 00:09:29 Four, six hours we're talking about. Yeah. Yeah. You know, so that would be the argument. He scored five touchdowns on 153 targets. You know, I don't know why this is his ceiling. He did that as a rookie, basically the greatest rookie season we've ever seen from a tight end.

Starting point is 00:09:48 He came into the league with this kind of pedigree. I don't really think he has much competition to be worried about. I mean, he's by far the most talented player in that receiving core. I do not care about Jack Bash. You know, I don't care about him, but I don't think that's that's going to hurt. No, you can't say watch out for Jack Bash and that's going to ruin Bouch. It's Gentie. It's Gentie that really strikes me as a, as a problem for Bowers, because not only does that take Bowers out of the, you know, routine targets in goal to go

Starting point is 00:10:18 situations, cause they can just run it with Gentie and he'll score from a yard out to 10 yards out, but. But Gent is also a really good pass catcher out of the backfield. And remember the type of coverage that we just got done talking about with Kelsey? What do you think is going to happen with Bowers this coming year? I guess I just don't really buy that argument because then we could never draft great players every year. What do you think is going to happen? Overcome the double. It's harder when you're in your second season. I don't know. I mean, I'm sure they were double teaming him last year. What do you think is gonna happen? The great players can overcome the double. It's harder to do when you're in your second season. I don't know.

Starting point is 00:10:46 I mean, I'm sure they were double teaming him last year. Who were they focusing on last year? Trent, like, should it be Myers? Harris? You know, it's- Yeah, it's a fair point. I can't imagine he wasn't double teamed last year. Fair point. Yeah. All right.

Starting point is 00:10:58 Well, of course it's just a guess for me. I can't say that with certainty, but I can say with certainty, this is the end of the show. And we will talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football Today Express. See you later.

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Fantasy Football Today - FFT Express - AFC West Preview: Sleepers, Breakouts & Busts for 2025 Drafts!

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