Fantasy Football Today - FFT Express - Daniel Jones Re-Signs With Colts! Fantasy Football Impact & 2026 Outlook! (03/11 Fantasy Football Podcast)
Episode Date: March 11, 2026The Indianapolis Colts are bringing back Daniel Jones, re-signing the quarterback to a two-year, $88 million deal that could reach $100 million with incentives. What does this move mean for fantasy fo...otball and the Colts offense with Alec Pierce, Josh Downs, and Tyler Warren heading into 2026? Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Shop our store: shop.cbssports.com/fantasy SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 FOLLOW FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 SUBSCRIBE to FFT DFS on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dfs/id1579415837 To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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All right, Daniel Jones, back to the Colts.
Two years, $88 million.
We'll talk about it right now on Fantasy Football Today Express.
And welcome, everybody.
Adam Azer, Jimmy Eisenberg, Dave Richard.
So Daniel Jones has been in the league for seven years,
and you think it really hasn't been that good of a career,
and you're not necessarily wrong,
but in three of those seven seasons,
he's actually been a top 16 quarterback per game, fantasy relevant guy.
You take out a couple of partial games there,
top 14 quarterback per game in three of seven seasons.
It's not too bad, and last year was certainly his best.
Jamie, what's your reaction to the Colts bringing Daniel Jones back?
I mean, we obviously kind of expected this when he got the transition tag.
And then on top of that, you know, Alec Pierce seemed to make it clear that if he wanted to play with Daniel Jones.
So when they gave Pierce this mega deal, it kind of, I think, spoke to the fact that they were going to work something out with Jones.
They accomplished everything they wanted to this offseason, you know, keeping both of their top two free agents.
I think in the case of Daniel Jones, you're not going to draft him in one quarterback
leagues.
You'll certainly draft him in Superflex in two quarterback leagues.
You hope that he's ready to go.
And Schefter reported that, you know, seems to be on track potentially for training camp,
which is encouraging coming off the Achilles tear.
So if he's ready for week one, maybe we get a repeat performance,
and maybe we get another situation where you're picking him up off waivers,
and you can start him at some point during the season.
I wouldn't expect many rushing yards clearly coming off of this injury.
But given the fact that he's got Pierce,
he's got Tyler Warren for year two.
He's got Josh Downs and a strong run game to support him.
I think he can end up being in that low 20 point per game range,
which is where he was for the first nine weeks of the season before that,
the fibula injury where he broke his leg.
So there's a chance for him to be a decent fantasy quarterback,
just not what I would consider a superstar.
And Dave, you kind of agree with that.
I don't think anyone's going to be drafting Daniel Jones.
Whenever I evaluate a quarterback from here until August,
The first quarterback I'm going to compare him to is Malik Willis.
And who would I rather have on my fantasy roster or in the fantasy draft?
He'd go on my fantasy roster.
I'd draft him.
Do I take the quarterback who we've barely seen, but has huge rushing potential?
Or do we take this other quarterback?
And in this case, it's Daniel Jones not even near where I would take Malik Willis,
especially since we assume that Willis will be the starter in Miami.
The rushing upside is just too great.
And Daniel Jones has rushing upside.
I wonder how much of it will be there with him coming back from the Achilles
injury, how often he will run, how effective of a runner he will actually be.
Did you know that 20% of his fantasy points last year came on runs?
It's because he scored five touchdowns on the ground.
That was a huge help for his numbers.
It's why he averaged north of 20 fantasy points per game.
I don't know how much of that he does in 2026.
And it makes me nervous to look at him.
I think Jamie said the best, like a low-end.
number two type of quarterback that you're only going to draft in Superflex and 2QB.
Yeah, but here, right.
I mean, I agree.
But just to say this, you're right about the touchdowns, right?
He did have the rushing touchdowns.
But he was actually having his worst rushing season, lowest rushing season of his career.
Career low in attempts per game, even if you remove the Jacksonville game where he left in
the second quarter, career low in attempts per game, career low in yards per carry.
In fact, Daniel Jones was on pace for only 220.
27 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns in his healthy games.
In his best seasons with the Giants, two seasons, he was on pace for over 700 rushing yards.
He had been on pace for more than 450 rushing yards in five straight years.
Last year he stopped running.
So he did have the touchdowns, but I do think that's a little bit of encouraging because
when he had the good year in 2022 with the Giants, he was on pace for over 700 rushing yards,
right?
this past year, like I said,
on pace for 227 rushing yards,
seven rushing touchdowns in his healthy game.
So he did it as a thrower
with a 4,300-yard pace,
22 touchdowns to 10 interceptions.
That was the 17 game pace for Daniel Jones.
I've said the word pace a lot.
But Dave, you know, when you think about that,
he's coming off the tourniquillae.
It's obviously a big deal,
whether you're a pocket passer or a mobile guy.
But at least he showed
that he could be a better passer last year.
His passing numbers, completion percentage, yards per temp, everything was through the roof career high.
Yeah, he was great.
It's a great offensive scheme.
He had a bunch of targets to throw to.
He's still going to have most of those targets.
The only guy he's lost is Pittman, and they might even add somebody in the draft, who knows.
But between Pierce, Downs, and I kind of feel like Downs is a guy we should dig into a little bit more as the offseason rolls on.
And of course, Tyler Warren, I think that those are all great options.
I just, a lot of the touchdowns he had last year, they were from the goal.
line. I don't know how many times his number is going to be called from there, given his
health from the knees down. All right, Jamie, Daniel Jones did lose his top touchdown catcher.
He threw 19 touchdown. Seven of them went to Michael Pittman. We'll talk about the rest of the
Colts when we come back on Fantasy Football. That I Express. Also a huge mistake that I made a couple
of days ago that I'm going to rectify shortly. We'll be right back.
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All right, welcome back to Fantasy Football Today Express, guys.
I saw it on Twitter.
I couldn't believe I didn't think of it.
Sorry, I have to get something cute up.
Michael Pittman going to the Steelers.
He is literally
Pitman now.
I didn't even get that.
All right.
So that's a big issue for me.
But Jamie, talk about this offense here.
You know, one guy that he threw to a lot was Tyler Warren.
And he threw it.
Tyler Warren, when Jones was healthy, and I think for the full season,
led the team in red zone targets, green zone targets.
So maybe this has been a sneaky good offseason so far for Warren.
But what do you think about the Colts?
Again, it comes down to how healthy Daniel Jones is.
You know, you referenced that he's had three good seasons.
And, you know, Thomas, if you're watching on YouTube, you know, put up the graphic of what his injuries have been.
He's never had consecutive seasons of playing well, whether due to injury or performance.
And so can he do it in back-to-back gears and support his receiving core in back-to-back gears?
And I think part of that also speaks to, you know, you asked Dave about what he can do as a passer.
It is following, spending some time in Minnesota with Kevin O'Connell.
We've seen what this has been, either in short stints for guys like Baker Mayfield with his brief time with Sean McVey or Sam Darnold sitting for a season in San Francisco and getting coached by Kyle Shannon in that group.
So it does, you know, hopefully continue through 2026.
And I think for the receiving core here, like Dave said, we got to look a little bit harder at Josh Downs and see, can he take a step forward and maybe get back to what he was two years ago when he was a pretty deep.
decent fantasy option down a stretch.
Obviously, Alec Pierce were all expecting to take a step forward because he should get,
as we discussed on Monday, his at minimum target per game boost just from 5.6 to 6 plus,
which is where Pittman was at.
Pittman was 6.5.
So hopefully that's the case.
And Dave alluded to us yesterday that there was a report from ESPN that, you know,
he may be looking at eight plus targets per game, which would be great.
Obviously, Tyler Warren was fantastic in the first nine games of the season when
Daniel Jones was healthy.
And so hopefully that's the case as well, that we have, you know, a healthy Daniel Jones,
the two top target getters playing at a high level.
And the third guy now being downs, also taking a huge step forward.
So they're going to be very good fantasy options.
Warren's going to be a top five-ish tight end on draft day.
Pierce will be a borderline number two wide receiver on draft day.
Downs, I think, will start to get steamed up a little bit where he'll be a borderline
number three receiver, would be my guess, based on ADP, if not a mid-number-three receiver.
You know, if things just sort of fall in place for him.
but it really all comes down to Ken Daniel Jones,
pick up where he left off,
show that the broken leg was part of the reason
for the start of the decline,
and then obviously the Achilles tear,
and that's why the whole offense fell apart.
So I think there's a lot of good pieces.
I think Shane Steichen's a good coach.
I think the offensive line's very good.
Obviously Jonathan Taylor's a stud.
So everything sort of is there for the Colts
to still be a very successful offense,
just a matter again,
how healthy is Jones,
and where will he sort of be in year two in this offense?
Yeah, Jones, do we know exactly
when the broken fibula? Was it the game before
the buy? That's what I...
I mean, it was reported for week
10. Right. You know, he
was going to play through it in week 10.
And so then he played essentially three
games with it, right? If I'm not mistaken, 10, and then
there was a buy in there and then...
Then 12, 13, and then got hurt in week 14.
So, yeah, he didn't play that poorly.
The fantasy numbers were good, but he basically stopped
scrambling, you know,
down in those games. It wasn't rolling
out as much. When I wrote the story,
about him getting the transition tag,
I kind of just looked at the first nine games.
So I think that's just the way you want to evaluate him,
you know,
if you want to azer stat it.
You know, where was he in the healthy games?
You know,
and obviously it's not fair to take out the bad games,
but, you know, again,
playing through a broken leg,
playing obviously, you know,
at less than 100%.
You started to see where everything,
you know, sort of went downhill.
And now you could say,
okay, there's nine games of tape on him.
There's nine games of what, you know,
the Colts are doing.
Taylor was a monster through the early part of the season.
And then he started to, you know,
tail off a little bit as well as we know.
So I think it's just maybe kind of a combination of injury,
offense sort of changing a little bit.
You know, Daniel Jones maybe, you know,
the becoming a pumpkin, you know,
if you want to use that analogy again and again and again.
There's just, to me, that's the data point that I want to look at.
What were they in the first nine games when he was healthy?
And obviously their offense was much better.
22.8 fantasy points per game in those first nine.
Yeah, it was good.
That's terrific.
Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
And they had the number one offense in the NFL before he got hurt.
So, yeah, I was a great year for him.
Let me, you know, Dave, just digging into some of the data,
let me tell you a few things that were different for Daniel Jones.
Because I come back to that quote from John Mara,
the owner of the Giants from four years ago now, I guess,
where he said, we've done everything we can to screw this kid up.
They never had a good offensive line.
They never had a good receiving core.
So he had his lowest sack rate, his second lowest pressure rate.
And one thing that his highest explosive play rate by far, but his highest play action rate,
Daniel Jones had the second highest play action rate in the NFL last year behind Matthew Stafford.
And not only that, he averaged over nine yards per attempt,
9.2 yards per attempt on play action, which was sixth best in the NFL.
He was never really that good on play action with the Giants,
except for as a rookie.
So that I think is kind of maybe a reason,
like looking under the hood of why they had this great run game.
They had a better offensive line.
He was really good on play action.
He obviously had a great run game with the Giants, too, at one point.
Yeah, I don't remember what year that was.
Barclay came, was a year before Jones, right?
So I don't think he really had that great of it.
I think Berkeley, right?
Berkeley had the 2018, I believe, great run game.
And then that wasn't ever really great after that, had some injuries.
So I don't know.
I thought the play action thing really jumped out to me, Dave.
It's something we really like to see in the NFL,
and he executed great on it and did it a ton.
You can look at other stats like ADOT and time to throw and off target rate.
And most of those stats are in line with what he did with the Giants too.
So I think you found that type of thing that made him a little bit different in Indianapolis.
And it goes back to what I said about the scheme and the play caller and the play calling.
And Shane Stuyken just kind of had a good rhythm to put Daniel Jones into.
And it worked out and the blocking was better up front.
I think it's as simple as that.
Hey, Jamie, you know what?
Looking at Sequin Barclay.
So Jones came into the league in 2019.
Barkley was 2018.
So his best year with the Giants was before Daniel Jones,
but his second best year was 22.
And that was the year where Daniel Jones was a, you know,
rushed for 700 yards,
and was a top 12 quarterback.
And they went to the playoffs.
They won a game, right?
So maybe there's something there.
Maybe he needs a good run.
Minnesota.
Yeah, I mean, you know, bad defense.
But I don't know.
Just food for thought, Jamie.
It's that the run game could really help Daniel Jones.
He's definitely somebody that, you know, Dave's right.
Like, you know, Malik Willis should definitely go ahead of Daniel Jones.
I think it comes down to when you get to that tier of like Cam Ward and Bryce Young and those type of guys that, you know, Tua, you know, now with Atlanta, those type of quarterbacks that either are going to be retreads or, you know, guys that haven't proven themselves yet.
And you start to just think about, okay, does everybody in your league take two quarterbacks?
If the answer is yes, then, okay, do you want to prioritize too early, the second quarterback early, or are you going to be the quarter, the manager who waits?
And I think if you get Daniel Jones with your last pick
or second and last pick, whatever the case may be,
third or last pick,
you're looking at it as,
okay,
if everything falls in the place again,
you got to steal.
If everything falls in what his career has been for the majority,
then you're probably looking for somebody else at some point.
So he's got upside.
We saw it.
You can't ignore it.
If he gets back to running,
it's even more upside.
But it's just hard to expect coming off an Achilles tear,
losing a weapon,
his, you know,
totality of what he's been.
Like,
there's just not a lot to love going into the season.
If he proves himself,
you got another guy that we got,
you got the guy that we got last year.
And if he's over 20 points per game,
it's a huge addition off the waiver war.
You know,
I don't think when we got to the end of the season,
I don't even think we mentioned him
as one of the best waiver wire ads.
And he probably should have been in that discussion
because for the first nine weeks of the season,
22.8, whatever it was,
22.9.
Yeah, no, 208, yeah.
Like, that's better than what Jacoby Brissette was.
and we were making the case for him in the second half of the season
because he helped a lot of people win fantasy championships.
That made him 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.
QB 9 per game in the first 9 weeks.
Daniel Jones' first 9 games was equal to Jacoby Brissette's last 12.
Oh, wow.
22.8 on the dot for both of those guys.
And Brissette would have been way higher
if he didn't tank at the end of the season.
His last three games weren't very good.
All right, guys.
Thank you.
That was 15 minutes on Daniel Jones.
Pretty interesting player.
That's about time.
That was your dream.
Yeah, how about that?
Talking about Daniel Jones for 15 minutes.
All right, well, good luck to him.
Good luck to the Colts.
Exciting offense last year.
Hopefully they can keep it going because they were phenomenal for fantasy.
And we will talk to you next time there's news on fantasy football today.
