Fantasy Football Today - FFT Express - Heath Cummings SHOCKING 2025 Projections Revealed! Daniels, Achane, LaPorta & More! (07/17 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Starting point is 00:00:00 Hold on to your hats. Projections that will shock you right now on Fantasy Football Today Express. Welcome everybody. Adam Azer and Heath Cummings here. Heath, shock us. Just dazzle us with some crazy projections. I have Jaden Daniels projected to score more fantasy points than any other quarterback in the NFL. My projection for him

Starting point is 00:00:30 4,262 passing yards, 28 passing touchdowns, 814 rushing yards, and five and a half rushing touchdowns. That'd be a pretty good season. Do you draft them first overall? Almost always what I do is just wait until somebody takes one of Lamar or Josh Allen. And then I take Jaden Daniels. And I think in our pick by pick, actually, Alan went first, then Daniels and then Jackson, And I don't really have much of a difference between them. So I don't care. Biggest takeaway from me in this would be draft the third quarterback. Okay. Um, I, one thing I love about him is Cliff Kingsbury and his track record with Kyler Murray,

Starting point is 00:01:24 is Cliff Kingsbury and his track record with Kyler Murray. Because Kyler Murray in his first, let me just make sure these all line up with Kingsbury. Kingsbury was there from 2019 to 2022. So in those years, Kyler Murray was on pace, Kyler Murray averaged 34.9, 36.5, 34.4, and 38.9 pass attempts per game, while also being on pace for 571, 925, 514, and 706 rushing yards. And I just love the usage. You don't see quarterbacks rush more than 100 times a year and also throw 35 or more passes per game.

Starting point is 00:02:08 Um, I think that's a real possibility for Jayden Danos. I don't know about 35, but, uh, but to be a lot more pass heavy than Lamar Jackson and not be too far behind in rushing totals. Exciting. Yeah. I was just looking at past attempts per game. I have him at 33.4 and Jackson's usually around 28 or so. Right.

Starting point is 00:02:27 Okay. Uh, how about your next shocking projection? I have Devon H. And projected to score more PPR fantasy points than any other running back in the NFL, his first 1000 yard rushing season. Kind of weird that he hasn't had one of those yet. Just 1000 yard rushing season. Kind of weird that he hasn't had one of those yet. 1196 yard rushing, 9.9 rushing touchdowns,

Starting point is 00:02:50 95 targets, 76 catches, 584 yards receiving, and 4.3 touchdowns. Okay, so this is a guy you end up drafting a lot because- I have taken him fifth in each of the last two drafts I've done. I have my 14 team FSGA experts draft starting in about 40 minutes. And I really anticipate that I will take a Chan at eighth because he doesn't go until round two, according to ADP somehow.

Starting point is 00:03:24 How many fantasy points did Aishan average with two at last year? 22.6 which is essentially what Gibbs and Barkley I mean is basically RB one. That's PPR. 2023 he played nine games with 39% or more of the snaps in his rookie season. with 39% or more of the snaps in his rookie season. And he was, he didn't really get used that much, but on pace for 1,857 total yards and 21 touchdowns. That's good. Yeah, I know. It's, it's really amazing. Um, and what solidified this for me was like, I already had HN higher than most and ahead of Gibbs. And I think it's almost certain that however many games HN plays with Tua and however many games Gibbs plays with Montgomery, HN is going to be better than Gibbs for those games. You're going to need

Starting point is 00:04:16 a significant missed period of time for Tua and or Montgomery for Gibbs to be better than Devon HN. Uh, are you worried about the offensive line? It's it's not really common. The only time I that I remember I looked at, I did this research a couple of days ago of a running back finishing number one overall and having a horrible offensive line was Austin Eckler and that was a year where I could just have a ton of catches. So yeah, I mean, I don't think the Dolph, I don't expect the Dolphins to have a good offensive line.

Starting point is 00:04:47 I'm not sure that they're going to have a horrible offensive line, but if you were going to do that, it would have to be in full PPR by leading the position in targets, receptions, and receiving yards, which I project HN to do. Okay. Also they were pretty bad offensive line last year. PFF had them 27th in run blocking. ESPN had them 26. Could be worse, but they've already been bad. All right, we'll take a break and give you a couple more shocking projections after this.

Starting point is 00:05:14 Stop. Do you know how fast you were going? I'm going to have to write you a ticket to my new movie, The Naked Gun. Liam Neeson. Buy your tickets now and get a free chili dog. Chili dog not included. The Naked Gun, tickets on sale now, August 1st. All right, welcome back. So we've talked about QB1, Jaden Daniels, RB1, Devon Achan. Here's a guy that's definitely not going to be wide receiver one, give me a wide receiver projection.

Starting point is 00:05:41 I do not have Mike Evans projected to top 1000 yards for the first time, I believe in his NFL career. And I've got him just, just under that at. I'm getting it. 71 catches for 915 yards and nine touchdowns on 111 targets. It's an insane touchdown rate, but that's pretty much what he's always done. That does not make him a top 20 wide receiver for me. He was on pace for 878 yards when he played with Chris Godwin last year in six healthy games and they added a Mecca Bucca and they keep talking about how much they love him and he's going to be a part of the offense.

Starting point is 00:06:31 And there's a chance that the efficiency is not as good partially because it was so insanely good last year and partially because they lost Liam Cohen. Okay this is my 32. The third. Okay. The 32 thing, we better be right about that because Adams and Evans, you have to invest some pretty big draft capital. Last year changed everything with age at running back, but not necessarily at receiver because Deandre Hopkins and Kenan Allen fell off the age 32 cliff

Starting point is 00:07:03 last year and it happens time and time again. Will it happen to Evans and Adams? It's a really big question, Heath, and I don't know the answer. Heath Cottero Well, and I think also the only thing I would push back is last year, instead of saying it changed everything at running back, I would say it bucked everything at running back. It's going to have to happen for a couple more, a couple more running backs besides Derek Henry and the guys that happened with last year. Um, but yeah, it's, it was an outlier and it's possible that Adams and or Evans have an outlier in that regard. Those happen, but I just don't want to project it. Yeah. All right. And, uh, give me a tight end projection. That's shocking. I think it's probably Sam Laporta who I basically have projected to

Starting point is 00:07:45 score 10 fantasy points per game. 66 catches, 728 yards, six touchdowns on 91 targets. Six touchdowns. Wow. And yeah, he's going to be taken with a top 60 pick in a lot of leagues, certainly top 70. Sam Laporta had a very interesting season because, and I feel bad if you listen to the full length episode of the tight end tiers, this was one guy we pretty much skipped. He ended up as tight in nine per game. He was on pace for 88 targets. He played 16 games.

Starting point is 00:08:15 So his stats are mostly what you see there. But first 11 games, he was really bad. He was tight end 16 per game. Jared Goff averaged 28 pass attempts per game. Last six games, he was amazing. He was on pace for 130 targets and Jared Goff averaged 40 pass attempts per game and was on pace for 5,553 yards, 45 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. He did have a 20% target share in those last six games.

Starting point is 00:08:42 Was he just getting healthy? If you give him a 20% target share, I think he's going to have a good year. Heath. I don't know what, if you have that available. So a 20% target share, let's see what I've got Jared golf projected for in terms of targets. It's a five 69. So five 69 times 20%.

Starting point is 00:09:00 That's going to get you 113 targets. Yeah. Uh, that, that. That will be good as long as he continues to score at a very high rate, which he has done two years in a row. We'll see how much Ben Johnson impacts up. All right. So thank you very much. In case you're curious, by the way, in those last six games, he out targeted Jameson Williams,

Starting point is 00:09:24 who had a 17.4% target share. And actually, Heath, I think with the new offensive coordinator, I just wonder, are they going to be as run heavy? I could see a scenario where you're too low on everyone because David Montgomery is the one that's really suffering. That they phase him out of the offense. There are more balanced offense. Gibbs is the lead rusher and he's doing his thing as a receiver and golf's throwing the

Starting point is 00:09:56 ball a lot. And then the Lions are going to really come through. If Montgomery still has his role, that's where I think your projections make a lot of sense. And what I would say is I'm not quite too low on everybody. If Montgomery disappears, then I'm going to be very happy that I have Jared Goff ranked six spots higher than he's being drafted. There you go. But that's the interesting one to me is like, how run heavy are they? How

Starting point is 00:10:20 much are they using David Montgomery? Or did they just say, you know what, we had a lot of success scoring late last season, throwing the ball. Did we get back to that? I, and I, to my perspective or impression is that David Montgomery is very much a Dan Campbell guy. He's good. And their defense fell apart late last year too.

Starting point is 00:10:41 So, uh, all right. Lion's obviously a team that will influence a lot of fantasy leagues. We will talk to you tomorrow on FFT Express. Have a good one.

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Fantasy Football Today - FFT Express - Heath Cummings SHOCKING 2025 Projections Revealed! Daniels, Achane, LaPorta & More! (07/17 Fantasy Football Podcast)

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