Fantasy Football Today - FFT Express: Stop Reaching! 4 Players Going Way Too Early in Fantasy Drafts! (06/05 Fantasy Football Podcast)

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Starting point is 00:00:19 Rise to rewards with the BMO Eclipse Rise Visa Card. Terms and conditions apply. Players who are going too soon based on our early average draft position, that's what we're talking about here on Fantasy Football Today Express. I'm Jamie Eisenberg, that's Dave Richard, this is FFT Express. We're looking at the early average draft position on cbsports.com drafts and players that might be going a little bit too soon. And let's start with a quarterback in particular, and really just all the quarterbacks, because we know you guys, despite what we tell you,

Starting point is 00:00:48 in one quarterback leagues, we'll still take quarterbacks too soon. And the first one coming off the board in our early ADP is Lamar Dax and the 17th overall player. Just to sort of put that in perspective, Jackson is at 17, and then the next quarterback is Josh Allen at 31. That feels like the right time to take the first quarterback,

Starting point is 00:01:06 31st player overall. 17th overall for Lamar Jackson, six points for passing touchdowns. You're not getting a significant advantage for him necessarily based on the other quarterbacks. Dave, why are people still taking Lamar Jackson and any quarterback in particular in the first 20 overall picks?

Starting point is 00:01:20 I think people love drafting Lamar for the most obvious reasons. He's fun to watch. He's productive because of the rushing upside. I don't understand why he's going two rounds or not two rounds, but it's called one round one plus ahead of Josh Allen when Josh Allen has been doing the exact same thing. Uh, I'd rather have Alan.

Starting point is 00:01:41 I just feel like he's safer. The track records a little bit safer than it is with somebody like Lamar Jackson. But that's picking your poison. The thing that stands out to me is that you can get Jaden Daniels at 39. So that's round four. And we just got done doing the main FFT show. Heath says one of the guys he's always targeting is Jaden Daniels, and he loves getting him in round four.

Starting point is 00:02:03 I don't know who would hate getting him in late Round 3, much less Round 4. So that's an ADP that I can totally get behind. This ADP shows me, Jamie, that outside of a couple of quarterbacks, people are starting to get it. They're understanding that they can wait a little bit on quarterback. They don't have to take one in Round 1 in a 1QB league. They don't even have to take one in Round 2. They're starting to have to take one in round two. They're starting to understand that the position is deep and that they can wait to get a good quarterback at a fair value. And that should be the goal of every fantasy drafter this year.

Starting point is 00:02:35 Next player we'll talk about is George Kittle. And I think there's going to be a clear three tight ends that are going to be at the top, whether it's Bowers one McBride to kill think it'll, it'll settle with the third spot, but some people I know I do, I think you do as well. They've like a McBride ahead of Bowers, Bowers going as the 16th overall player and McBride is the 23rd overall player. And then George Kittle at 32 overall. And I think what we'll end up seeing is just how far will Kittle be away

Starting point is 00:03:01 from the top two tight ends. And 32 feels like a little bit too soon knowing that he's older he's coming off a great season but he does tend to miss a game or two. So George Kittle be going early in round or in round three excuse me. No I think he's a late round four pick and that's just kind of playing it safe but it's also remembering what George Kittle averaged before last season. I think people are using recency bias and believing that George Kittle is going to be over 15 PPR points per game for the second year in a row when he hasn't done that in a long time.

Starting point is 00:03:32 2021, 13.7 PPR points per game. 2022, 13.3. 2023, this is just two seasons ago, folks. 12.7 PPR points per game. I think if you look at them and you say okay here's a tight end that you can set your watch to for 13 PPR points per game you'd say great why would I take that guy in round three when I can get a receiver or running back that'll average more points per game than that or wait for a tight end that'll get around 10 or 11 PPR points per game like five rounds later if you wanted to. I think round four would be the sweet spot for Kittle. I think the positive for Kittle, we talked about this on the full length episode, is when is IU coming back? Well we don't know. Could be early in the season, could be mid-season, could be late in the season. You know coming off a pretty devastating knee injury. We haven't really

Starting point is 00:04:17 heard a lot of positive updates yet about when IU will be back on the field. By comparison, Stephon Diggs in New England is already taking part in OTAs, no brace, just running around. So we'll see if IUK is able to avoid the populace potentially and maybe make it back. But you have Joann Jennings who has never been a featured guy consistently. Is he going to be the target getter, number one target getter for the 49ers? You have Ricky Pierce all coming off a very incomplete rookie season, showed a lot of great flashes at the end of 2024, but already dealing with a hamstring injury and who knows when he'll be ready to go in training camp and may have to deal with some concerns.

Starting point is 00:04:48 George Kittle is tried and true. He's one of Brock Purdy's go-to guys and one of the go-to guys for Kyle Shanahan. Round three may be the best spot to take him and he may be better than Bowers and Trey McBride. So I agree, I'd rather wait till round four, but you may be getting a steal if you get him even in round three based on his role in the 49ers offense and still being a very productive guy. Alright, we're going to take a quick break here on FFT Express. When we get back, when we come back, we're going to talk about two other players that may be getting drafted a little bit too soon, specifically Alvin Kamara. Discover the magic of BetMGM Casino, where the excitement is always on deck. Pull up a seat and check out a wide variety of table games with a live dealer. From roulette to blackjack, watch as a dealer hosts your table

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Starting point is 00:06:16 Alright, let's talk about Alvin Kamara and just his ADP right now. It's 40th player getting selected in our early ADP. You seem to like that. I don't tell me why you like Camara at the 40th spot. I just think it's fair. I don't think that he's worth reaching for in round three. When we're talking about 40th overall in a 10 team league, that's at the end of round four, 12 team league, that's the middle of round four and for a guy who

Starting point is 00:06:42 just has consistently gotten it done for fantasy managers. A lot of us do with the catches that he gets in full PPR, but he's been consistently over like 17 PPR points per game. I know he's older. I know that offense is gonna suck. The quarterback's gonna suck. I buy into him and his opportunity. I still think he's a talented guy. I'm happy to get a running back of that caliber who has the upside to get 17 plus PPR points per game in round four. I don't know if there's another running back in that range that has that type of upside.

Starting point is 00:07:15 I asked you this on the full length episode when we were talking about the Saints quarterbacks, you said this offense can be one of the worst in football. I agree, quarterback situation could be one of the worst in football, maybe the worst. With Derek Harden now retired, now he did put up some good numbers with Spencer Rattler. There one of the worst in football. Maybe the worst with Derek Harden now retired. Now he did put up some good numbers with Spencer Rattler. There's a new coach in place in Kellen Moore.

Starting point is 00:07:31 The touchdowns though could be extremely hard to come by. Look, he's gonna get 60 plus catches. I think that goes without saying. But he's 30 years old now last year, missed three games with a groin injury. Who do you have to worry about breaking down at this point and just how much can he handle with all the attention he's going to get, knowing that the running production may be absolutely brutal? And maybe, coaching change,

Starting point is 00:07:52 obviously, Alan did not like, Dennis Allen did not like Kendre Miller. Maybe Miller gets a chance to carry the ball, play a little bit more. Maybe Devin Neal, the rookie that they drafted, gets a chance to cut into some of Kamara's workload. I'm just concerned about really just the environment around him. It could be absolutely unbelievably brutal for him. And so, yes, in PPR, he's safer than in the other formats because you don't have to worry about the touchdowns. But if he goes sub 50 in his reception total, knowing that he's probably going to be six touchdowns, maybe, maybe eight at most.

Starting point is 00:08:20 But I think six to eight is probably the range you're looking at based on his, you know, last several years like this could be a really bad season for a guy that is hitting those you know benchmarks of numbers that could start to start you know trends out so for me round five would be the earliest I would take him in just some running backs that are going after him that I like you said this on the show you'd rather have Chuba Hubbard he's going at 47th overall James Connor I think even an older running back there I would rather have him than Alvin Kamara if JK Dobbins does not go to Denver, I'd rather have RJ Harvey who's going at 51st

Starting point is 00:08:50 Behind Camara and just the value of some of the wide receivers Terry McCormick rather have Mike Evans even at his age I'd rather have DJ Moore. I'd rather have at this point, you know, so there's some receivers I'd be taking over Alvin Camara as well So I just do not like him at at the 40th overall spot. And then Omari Hampton is the next guy and the final guy we'll talk about. He's at 45th overall. That just seems way too soon for a guy that's going to be sharing to some capacity, whether you think he's the lead running back or the second running back for the Chargers, taking him in round four just seems too soon. It is a little too soon. And I think I think the public will catch up to that, but I don't think he'll fall that

Starting point is 00:09:27 much farther. Like, it wouldn't surprise me if he ended up with an ADP of like 52nd overall, 53rd overall. And that still might be too rich for your blood, Jamie, but I think he's the more talented running back in LA. I like how Jim Harbaugh thinks that he's an explosive 3-down player. We knew the explosive part was right. The 3-down part, I'm not sure if we're really going to see a lot of that, but maybe we will. I think we saw last year with the Chargers coaching staff, when they realized that Gus Edwards was dust, they put more on J.K. Dobbin's plate, they might see real quickly that Omarion Hampton is the better talent than Najee Harris. And so if I'm, if I'm getting Hampton in round five, I think that's a fair value. I'm going to be patient, obviously, but I think certainly by the second half of the year, if not by October, he could end up being a reliable number two running back in fantasy

Starting point is 00:10:17 labs. You don't even think twice about pulling them. I hope so. It just, I don't think that Gus Edwards and Najee Harris belong in the same conversation Based on their careers. I think that we do have a coaching staff you talked about this I mean going back to what Harbaugh did with his freshman running backs like he just doesn't seem to that's play a lot of these guys early and Yes, they spent first-round capital on him. And yes the contract for Najee Harris isn't that great?

Starting point is 00:10:43 I just always go back to this that veteran players like him, that don't do a lot of explosive things. They also don't do a lot of things that are going to kill your team. And so doesn't fumble. Never missed a game due to injury. Like while we will sit here and say, Oh my god, Hampton is much better. You know, we say this all the time, you got a Ferrari in the garage and you're you know, you're driving a Hugo. It's it you're driving a Yugo. It doesn't make a lot of sense to not necessarily play your more talented player, but coaches

Starting point is 00:11:10 are coaches. And especially, you know, grizzled veteran coaches like this guy is, and his offense coordinator is, like, will they give him the chances to get more than a minimal amount of opportunities, especially early in the season? So maybe it is October, like you said. Maybe it's not till December. And they realize that maybe this is the first year Najee misses time due to injury or starts to fumble.

Starting point is 00:11:28 Who knows? But I just don't think that we're gonna get the ceiling for Hampton barring an injury or just something dramatically changing for what Najee's profile has been. So I'm a little bit concerned and that's why I like Hampton. He's my favorite chargers running back by a lot. But I just don't think taking him in round four at this current situate, current juncture makes a lot of sense. But we have plenty of time to talk about average

Starting point is 00:11:48 draft position as we have many more drafts coming as the summer unfolds. So great conversation so far. I look forward to more of them about average draft position in the future. For Dave Richard, I'm Jamie Isenberg. Thanks for watching. Thanks for listening to FFT Tour. Okay, blessings to everybody.

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Fantasy Football Today - FFT Express: Stop Reaching! 4 Players Going Way Too Early in Fantasy Drafts! (06/05 Fantasy Football Podcast)

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