Fantasy Football Today - FFTOMORROW! The Best Players of the Next 6 Seasons! (05/15 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: May 15, 2020

Today we look ahead to the next six seasons of Fantasy Football and pick our Top 3 players at each position. Obviously Michael Thomas will be on that list, so let's start today's show talking about hi...s 2020 draft value (2:24). Should he really be a Top 5 pick in any format? Or should he be behind those Top 5 RBs? ... News and notes (13:10) on Todd Gurley, Tom Brady and more ... The best of the next six seasons! Starting with QB (18:00), why was Lamar Jackson left off some ballots? Is Kyler Murray a safer bet? At RB (27:45), the first two players were easy but finding a third was tough. Can Ezekiel Elliott be elite in the years to come? Did LSU's Ja'Marr Chase make our WR list (32:00)? Was there a reason to leave Tyreek Hill off? And at TE (36:50), who the heck is #3 on that list? ... Your emails at fantasyfootball@cbsi 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow the new FFT Twitch channel: https://www.twitch.tv/FFToday Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @YardsPerGretch, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Happy Friday, everyone.
Starting point is 00:00:21 Hope you're excited for a big weekend of Zoom games and the like. And hope you're excited to look ahead. Fantasy Football Today, which was Fantasy Football Yesterday, becomes Fantasy Football Tomorrow. As we take a look at the next half decade of football and our top three at each position. Who do we project to be the best of the best? Any college players making the list? I'm Adam Azer. What's up heath cummings how we doing i am doing fantastic the beach is open on monday i've got a haircut scheduled for next thursday
Starting point is 00:00:53 things are looking up let's let's talk about and hi dave i'm just wondering if we have a cool intro for fantasy football tomorrow like we had for fantasy football yesterday we don't i'm sorry about that welcome to fantasy football tomorrow you're going to win your league for sure we guarantee it because we can see into the future that's what the future sounds like i don't know if you guys knew that or that is what it's yeah no i think adam wanted to criticize me for going to the beach no i i want to know what that's going to look like for you like masks um no you know being spaced out like how are you going to do this safely i wear a mask every time i go somewhere indoors in public i'm not anti-mask at all but i'm not wearing a mask to the beach
Starting point is 00:01:38 i'm not going to closely associate with people at the beach i don't think i will see that many people at the beach because i will think i will see that many people at the beach because i will be there when the sun rises and i'll probably leave by eight in the morning oh all right then i just was hoping that you would stay all day and you would wear a mask and then you'd show up to work or i don't know on our zoom calls and you've got this big like half your face isn't tan because you're wearing a mask. And the other half is like bird red. Can't really wear a mask. You'd look like the Chiefs logo with red and yellow kind of. That's what I think.
Starting point is 00:02:09 So it sounds like you've got some exciting things coming up. I do too. All right, good. Sounds like everybody's got fun stuff going on this weekend, except for me. Big topic today is about Michael Thomas. Then we'll get to some news and notes, and then we'll get to fantasy football tomorrow, I guess. But let's start with Michael Thomas.
Starting point is 00:02:23 Here's the big question. Is Michael Thomas really worth a top five pick? I've seen him go as early as number two overall. Nobody's taking him ahead of McCaffrey, but we do a lot of drafts. I see him going number two sometimes. I see him going number two sometimes. No.
Starting point is 00:02:38 Oh, I bet you do. This is not another peeping story. But I see him being taken at number two in the draft. Is Michael Thomas really worth a top five pick, Dave? What do you think? No, I don't think he is. Maybe you can make the case for it in full PPR, but that's a maybe.
Starting point is 00:03:00 So what the hell am I saying? I'm saying probably not. I'm worried about his target share going down. Yeah, so Heath, before the show, you said that you did some research and you're thinking maybe the answer is no, right? Yeah, first off, his target share is going to go down. Like, just almost assuredly.
Starting point is 00:03:20 He's going to probably see two fewer targets per game, maybe even. But he's also going to be the best wide receiver in fantasy. What I do every year at some point, and that point is the past week, is I take all the projections and put all the positions on the same sheet with kind of a VBD value-based drafting approach, looking at each player over replacement cost at their position. And it was alarming this year when I did that, especially in non-PPR, because replacement cost for wide receiver was so much higher. The value of the top wide receivers and non-ppr versus the lower
Starting point is 00:04:09 wide receivers when i added in all the all the changes that we've had um wide receivers and non-ppr i'm not sure if i'd take more than one in the first round oh this is i mean i think if you take michael thomas with a top five pick in a in a non-ppr league that's just kind of wacky you know in ppr he actually by this process now i do think it's like i don't purely do this and rank them by their value over replacement and then rank them exactly that way because michael thomas is safer than dalvin cook he is safer than Dalvin Cook. He's safer than Derek Henry. He's safer than Austin Eckler. Like there's just no doubt. I think any running back besides maybe McCaffrey Barkley, Camara and Zeke, I would say Michael Thomas is much more likely to hit his
Starting point is 00:05:00 expectation than, and I think, I think you can even set an expectation as reasonable as, I don't know, 125 catches, 1,400 yards, and nine touchdowns, which is what he had two years ago. Yeah, I've got him at 130, 1,509. So, sure, I think that's very, like, we're right in the same ballpark. But if he gets his numbers from 2018,
Starting point is 00:05:23 while they're not as good as what he did in 2019 it's still going to be real close in ppr if not better in ppr than almost every running back you know what i'm saying so i agree with you like that's that's the appeal for michael thomas is you know what he is his target share isn't going to plunge to where he's only getting you know five per game i don't think it'll even plunge to where he's only getting five per game. I don't think it'll even plunge to where he's getting seven per game. Of course it's going to stay. I would think it's going to be at least 150,
Starting point is 00:05:52 because that's basically what it was in 2018, and I'm pretty sure it was 17, it was around that too, right? It's like 148. Yeah, he's had 147 and 149 targets those years. Yeah, and you remember before he became a thing in New Orleans, the Saints never really had a receiver get that many targets. Never. 149 was the most for a Drew Brees wide receiver in New Orleans
Starting point is 00:06:15 until last year when he had 185 targets. And actually, in just the games that Drew Brees started and finished, he was on pace for 192 targets. Wow. Woo. Yeah. But go on, Heath. Yeah, so I had a dilemma yesterday in our 2QB mock.
Starting point is 00:06:34 I can't remember if I... Fifth pick, I think. And Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara were both there. And it was half PPR. So I would have... Before I'd gone through this process in the past week i would have taken thomas and i took alvin camara gotta go for the position position scarcity at running back you want to have that stud running back on your team as much as it might hurt to miss out on that top of the top receiver i think i think you made the right move by going with
Starting point is 00:07:04 camara well i did as long as camara doesn't get hurt what could go wrong for thomas on that top-of-the-top receiver, I think you made the right move by going with Kamara. Well, I did, as long as Kamara doesn't get hurt. What could go wrong for Thomas? Forget about injury. Could Emmanuel Sanders really come in and command six targets per game? Maybe, but that's not going to hurt Michael Thomas. When I say hurt Michael Thomas,
Starting point is 00:07:22 I'm thinking bring his numbers to where they were in 2017, where he had only hashtag only 104 catches for 1245 and five. Like, I think the entire receiving core beyond Emmanuel Sanders would have to be on an unreal path. Taysom Hill, who maybe we has to play out for Thomas to be not worth taking as a top 12 pick. But understand that each of the previous two seasons, he was not a top five wide receiver. Even with 1,400 yards, nine touchdowns, and 125 catches. In 2018, he was eighth in non-PPR and sixth in PPR. What happened this year? Well, he was better, obviously. He got more targets.
Starting point is 00:08:33 He was basically the same. He's been basically the same on a per-target and per-catch basis. There's yards per target and yards per catch. So I think the reason why I've never taken him with the top five pick, I think those five running backs to me are set in stone. McCaffrey, Barkley, Zeke, Kamara, Cook in some order, is because if he gets 150 targets, I think he's going to be worse than those guys.
Starting point is 00:08:56 And I don't know that he's going to be the number one wide receiver, but what changed really was the rest of the elite wide receivers disappointed us last year pretty much all of them hopkins julio hill um who am i back beckham yeah davante got hurt it was a davante they all were disappointing last year and if if it's a new wide receiver landscape and he's actually that much better than hopkins and he's that much better than Julio Jones, maybe not Devontae Adams, and I don't know about Tyreek Hill. I mean, he might get
Starting point is 00:09:30 30 more catches than Tyreek Hill. Then maybe that does boost his value, even if the targets go down. Maybe it's more about where he ranks relative to the position. But wide receivers at the elite tier of wide receiver changed last year. Big time. And he's still young and in his prime.
Starting point is 00:09:47 So that's one thing to keep in mind. But the last thing I'll say here is like 2018, McCaffrey, Barkley, Zeke, Cook. Not Cook. He didn't have a great year. But McCaffrey, Barkley, Zeke, half PPR, full PPR, they were either in 2018 as good or better than Michael Thomas was in 2019. You know, basically. Like Ezekiel Elliott averaged 22 fantasy points per game in PPR in 2018.
Starting point is 00:10:28 And Michael Thomas averaged 23.4. But McCaffrey and Barkley were better in 2018 than Thomas was in 2019 in full PPR. So obviously in half PPR, in non-PPR, they were much better. Alvin Kamara was basically the same amount of fantasy points per game in 2018 as Thomas was in 2019. So don't just think about 2019. If you're taking Michael Thomas second or third overall, I think it's a little bit short-sighted. And if he gets 150 targets again, then if he gets 150 targets, where should Michael Thomas be taken? Because I don't know if there's another receiver outside of davante adams and julio jones that's going to get that many targets i'm still taking him as the top receiver when though
Starting point is 00:11:10 sixth yeah i think that's as early that's how i've had him ranked in ppr like i'm taking those top five receivers first right i don't i can't bring myself to take mile sanders over michael thomas i i just can't do that well that's the thing is and i i think dalvin cook should be part of this discussion as well but it's kind of the old you can't win your league in the first round but you can lose it um i in ppr i have a hard time with cook versus thomas um but i couldn't i like i just can't take any of the running backs over him. They are a clear tier and maybe two tiers down from that top group, and there's significant question marks about all of them.
Starting point is 00:11:57 Yeah, all right. That's a good introduction to this conversation, which we'll be having, I'm sure, many more times throughout the offseason. Okay, let's get to the news and notes. First, let me tell you about our newsletters. Go to cbssports.com slash newsletter and stay up to date with fantasy football content all offseason long. cbssports.com slash newsletter.
Starting point is 00:12:17 You get your news of the day, your editorial pieces, your updated rankings. We have other newsletters, by the way. You can see them all there, cbssports.com. All right, let's settle this once and for all cbssports.com slash shraggy b is it newsletter or letters i think it's plural it does not matter i think it does it matters on my computer um all right then i guess it doesn't matter but if it doesn't work just go to both one way try it the other uh and you can start and stop fft episodes with your voice yeah like you listen you got an alexa you say hey alexa play fantasy football today and it'll you can start and stop it anyway if you have a smart speaker you can play fantasy football today on your smart speaker,
Starting point is 00:13:07 so make it happen. News and notes. Uh-oh, Giants cornerback DeAndre Baker, first-round pick last year, and Seattle cornerback Quinton Dunbar are accused of committing armed robbery. Uh-oh. Yeah, that's not good.
Starting point is 00:13:23 That's way worse than an uh-oh well oh is the baby spilled the spaghetti i was on the floor that's been happening a lot in my house actually not yeah mine too i just i get too excited when i eat spaghettios watch football with uh my son for the first time yesterday. Canes? Yeah, yeah. Yesterday was the greatest day in ESPNU history. Nothing but classic Miami-Florida State games we were watching. I have an observation about football in the past.
Starting point is 00:13:56 I'll get to it after the news and notes. Just remind me. Okay, fine. Yeah, so DeAndre Baker, he's kind of important to the Giants' defensive plan. So is Dunbar to the Seahawks. Okay. It's bad.
Starting point is 00:14:08 Very bad for both. And, yeah, huge deal and not to be taken lightly. Atlanta offensive coordinator Dirk Cutter acknowledged that he doesn't know how healthy Todd Gurley is. And as we sit here on May 15th. Neither do the Falcons. Right. Isn't there a chance that he fails a physical and doesn't play for them no because they i think that they it would be stunning if that happened
Starting point is 00:14:34 because and i think i said this before on the podcast the rams gave information to the falcons about girly even though they didn't have to because because it wasn't a trade, it was a free agent deal. And I guess they had a physical on him maybe from the end of the year. And the Falcons were comfortable with it. But Thomas Dimitrov has said, we haven't had Gurley in our building, our doctors haven't had the chance to look at him,
Starting point is 00:14:59 but we're comfortable with where he's at. Right, like the Buccaneers haven't had Tom Bradyady in their building or but someone else did a physical on him and they've seen it someone did a physical on gronk and they've seen it it could have been their doctors i just don't know how they how they went about doing it like it seems like this is just a really either not that big a deal because it's the same situation as every other trade and free agent this offseason? Or what in the world are the Falcons doing that everyone else knows the medicals on the players they've acquired and the Falcons don't?
Starting point is 00:15:33 The Chargers are going to get Mike Pouncey back. He's been cleared to play their center. He's been a great player in his career, and he played only five games last year. Oddly enough, Austin Eckler averaged 3.9 yards per carry with Pouncey and 4.5 without him, so that is not a stat that matters at all. But in case you're wondering, I'm not sure it had a big impact. Thanks anyway. I don't think it had a big impact on their running game last year,
Starting point is 00:15:56 but Pouncey, it's a good thing to have him back for sure. And I didn't use Melvin Gordon because Gordon only played one game with Pouncey. Tampa Bay Offensive Coordinator Clyde Christensen said we're going to see Bruce Arian's offense with Tom Brady's influence. What does that look like? It means it's going to be Tom Brady's offense. Do you
Starting point is 00:16:18 really think Tom Brady won't be allowed to change plays at the line of scrimmage? No, no. I just think it means how much no risk it, no biscuit are we talking here? I think there will be a little less risk it. And therefore, maybe not
Starting point is 00:16:33 necessarily fewer biscuits. We're hoping for more biscuits with less risk it. Clyde Christensen is not an offensive coordinator, right? Oh, is he the QB coach? I believe he's their quarterback's coach because Byron Lefkowitz is the OC. And Byron calls the plays, but
Starting point is 00:16:49 man, what a brain trust this is. So Byron Lefkowitz is going to draw up a game plan. Bruce Arians is going to change it two days before the game and say, nope, we're going to do this instead. And then the game's going to be going on and Brady's going to say, uh-uh, I don't like this play. I'm going to throw this instead. And then the game's going to be going on in Brady's. He's going to say, I don't like this play. I'm going to,
Starting point is 00:17:05 I'm going to call a throw it to Gronk 10 yards down the seam. That's the play I'm going to call instead. And they'll win. They'll win games. So it doesn't really matter. Wikipedia has Clyde Christensen as an American football coach. So I'm just going to go with that. American.
Starting point is 00:17:18 That's how every football coach. I know Dave. AC, not an OC. He's a what? He's an AC. He's an, he's an he's an American coach like every coach now from
Starting point is 00:17:29 now on is going to be an American football coach fantasy football fantasy football tomorrow the top three at each position that's all I'm going to do with that so I got to be honest with you. I'm not even sure what the assignment was.
Starting point is 00:17:47 Is it 2020 to 2025 or 2020 to 2024? Who are the best? Who will be the best fantasy football players at each position in the years 2020 through 2025? So we need a six year. Six years. Yeah. That's weird.
Starting point is 00:18:03 It was probably an oversight. Maybe not. Why? What's wrong with six years? It should be five years. Why does everything have to be in groups of five or ten? This is the future. We like the number six.
Starting point is 00:18:15 Okay. All right. So let me give you the consensus here. Quarterback, everybody had Patrick Mahomes number one. That's good. And many people had Lamar jackson number two but not me and not dave there were seven of us jamie dave heath me ben gretch ben schrager chris towers joe burrow over lamar jackson dave didn't even have Lamar Jackson third. Wow. Nope. Wow.
Starting point is 00:18:46 Okay. All right. Well, consensus was Mahomes. You didn't either, Adam. Oh, my gosh. I didn't. You're terrible. Okay. Wow.
Starting point is 00:18:58 Dave, you were right. Good job. Thanks, bud. Consensus was Mahomes one, Lam jackson two and kyler murray three and it was easy i think there would be like because when you add up the point when you look at the points i think that it's best to say there's no consensus on who's number three uh kyler murray only made it on like three of the six lists i think maybe four of the seven lists um there was there was no consensus at all on number three um it was that way at basically every single position like one and two were clear
Starting point is 00:19:33 and then the no consensus on three definitely the no consensus on three oh there was no tight end it was consensus on two yeah wide receiver is when it's an absolute jumbled mess. Well, let's talk about who we individually had. Heath, you went with Mahomes 1. I had the correct answer. Patrick Mahomes at 1, Lamar Jackson at 2, and Deshaun Watson at 3. I may have—nope, I was not the only person that picked Deshaun Watson. Shraggy B was also correct with Deshaun Watson as number three.
Starting point is 00:20:08 I feel a little bit uncomfortable with Jackson at two, but because of it's a six-year window, I did this thinking it was a five-year window. And six years from now, I'm not sure how good of a runner Lamar Jackson's going to be. But I think, especially at quarterback, for most of this exercise, it's probably the guy who we think
Starting point is 00:20:30 is going to be the best over the next three years, honestly. We, as a collective group, not CBS, the world, we're pretty bad at predicting things that are going to happen in the next year. We're going to be awful at predicting things that are going to happen five years from now. So I think it's best to just go with who you think is going to be to happen in the next year. We're going to be awful at predicting things that are going to happen five years from now.
Starting point is 00:20:46 So I think it's best to just go with who you think is the best the next three years. Yeah. My homes looks like the, obviously the best bet to, to be good in five years. I mean, I,
Starting point is 00:20:56 I'd be shocked if he weren't honestly, if, if we were doing a, we, like, I think we could have done a 10 year for quarterbacks and my home should be unanimous for that. Oh yeah. Oh yeah. of that. Oh, yeah.
Starting point is 00:21:05 Oh, yeah. Agreed. And number two for Heath was Jackson. Number three was Deshaun Watson. Dave, you went with? I had Mahomes first, Russell Wilson second, Joe Burrow third, and Watson would have been ahead of Lamar Jackson. Okay.
Starting point is 00:21:23 Why so low on Lamar Jackson? Because I, I want to know if he can keep this up. Think about all the Russian quarterbacks that have been in the NFL and think of their shelf life. And we talked about Michael Vick and maybe Vick is the glowing example of someone who could have, who did make it a long time.
Starting point is 00:21:44 He played in the NFL a long time, but his numbers could have really begun to take off if not for the off field incidents that happened to him. But RG three, one major injury, he was done. There's, there's a bunch of other examples. I'm kind of worried about it with Kyler too, which is why Kyler didn't make my list. What happens when Lamar Jackson hits 28 or 29 years old? How old is he now? He's like 23. Yeah, that's going to be the very end of this period. Right.
Starting point is 00:22:14 So either. Okay. So what happens when he gets hit and he misses, you know, the last four weeks of a season and he needs offseason surgery and he's 25 years old? Does he come back and run as much he's already talking about running a little less he's already mentioned it this off-season but cam would have had a a good argument for being but i feel like he's a little bit different because he's stronger and he's bigger i'm not going to compare their arms either because i honestly i'm
Starting point is 00:22:40 not sure that there's a big difference between their arms. I think they might be – maybe Lamar's even better of a passer than Cam. I think he is. I was a little nervous about putting Lamar Jackson on my list as well, and I went with Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray, and Russell Wilson. That's the thing. I kind of understand Dave's argument. You don't even know he was just scared of the running quarterbacks. And I think that's that's that makes sense. I don't understand putting Kyler Murray ahead of Lamar Jackson. I don't really consider Kyler
Starting point is 00:23:16 Murray a running quarterback the way I see Lamar Jackson. I think Kyler Murray is going to be a pass first quarterback. Lamar Jackson wasn't. Yeah, but he Lamar Jackson was Kyler Murray is going to be a pass-first quarterback. Lamar Jackson. But he wasn't a – Yeah. Lamar Jackson was – Kyler Murray had a much better rookie year than Lamar Jackson. And maybe that's not fair because Lamar Jackson didn't play until halfway through the season. But still, it's a gimmicky offense that you wonder if it's going to get – Which one?
Starting point is 00:23:40 The Ravens. It's going to get figured out a little bit. I think that if you're just looking at who's a better passer, Kyler Murray is a better passer than Lamar Jackson. I think Lamar Jackson still might be maybe a bad passer. He's a below average passer. I don't know. I think he put a lot of that concern to bed last year.
Starting point is 00:24:01 You're putting so much more into your eye test of seeing him throw than the statistics of him throwing in college and the nfl yeah because he's true his because he throws the wide open guys because nobody knew how to defend that offense last year i think when it comes down to it he's i just don't think he's that good of a passer i'm not like obviously how many years will he have to be a statistically above average passer before you will admit that he is?
Starting point is 00:24:27 One more. I mean, let's see what happens this year. But also, he's much more likely to get injured, I think,
Starting point is 00:24:32 than Kyler Murray because Jackson's like, he runs a lot more. He puts himself out there so much. Yeah, he runs a lot more. And Murray has more
Starting point is 00:24:40 to fall back on. Murray was the number one pick in the NFL draft. He was a better prospect than Lamar Jackson. That's true. I think a better passer. I think that's clear. We haven't seen him be good yet.
Starting point is 00:24:53 For a rookie? That's why Kyler doesn't belong on this list. He was pretty damn good for a rookie. He was. Then put some respect on Gardner Menchie's name. No, because he's a sixth-round pick, and there are almost zero sixth-round picks that were good in the NFL. Tom Brady and that Brady guy.
Starting point is 00:25:10 Pedigree matters. A quick thought on Lamar Jackson. Could the reason why guys were wide open and he was able to throw well because of the scheme that he played in, and are we sure that the scheme can't continue to be tweaked to take advantage of slower defenses slash defenses who are scared of the rushing threat that the Ravens possess? So his numbers and his production and his completion percentage could be a byproduct of what he's doing.
Starting point is 00:25:40 But if what he's doing works, then what's the problem? I'm not drafting him because he's going to be in a quarterback competition. I'm splitting hairs here because I'm trying to pick the best three. He'd be four for me. He wouldn't even be four for me. I think that there's – oh, so you're just devil's advocating right now? A little bit, but that's why he's number two for me in fantasy. Yeah, no, look, he could be great.
Starting point is 00:26:04 He could be great, and that offense could keep being great. But I think Kaepernick took the league by storm. And Vic, I was just looking at Vic's fantasy finishes the two years before he was suspended. He was like 14, 10, 4. He wasn't that great in fantasy most of the years. No, but we've talked about him in the past and this week. What if he hadn't have been suspended would he have continued to ascend but that was five years that was six years
Starting point is 00:26:32 into his career you know like i i don't i think we kind of knew what he was at that point um so he went to philadelphia and he was in great scheme, and his numbers went crazy. He was in two great schemes in Philadelphia. Cam Newton is the only example of a quarterback whose better skill was running that was able to really sustain it and be a fantasy stud basically year after year. Something to keep in mind with Josh Allen. Yeah. Is that fair to say?
Starting point is 00:27:04 Because that is why I left Jackson. Kaepernick had some great throws, too. Would you say that Lamar Jackson's a better passer than Josh Allen, at least? Yeah. Okay. Yeah. Josh Allen's probably the worst passer among starting quarterbacks in the NFL. Right?
Starting point is 00:27:19 I can't think of one. Certainly throwing deep he is. He makes terrible throws. He completed 18 of 68 deep balls. I think it was just last year. It might be the last two years. But that completion rate on deep balls is puketastic. Okay, here we go.
Starting point is 00:27:35 Let's go to running backs. Let's see what the quasi-consensus was here on running backs. Number one was Christian McCaffrey. Number two was Saquon Barkley. And then we don't really have... Wow. I told you. Nobody got more than two points. No other running back. All you need is one
Starting point is 00:27:53 third place vote to get one point. Obviously a second place vote is worth two points. You can blame Dave for this one. Everybody had McCaffrey one, Barkley two. And then Clyde Edwards-Elair and Jonathan Taylor showed up twice
Starting point is 00:28:09 at three. Travis ETN, interesting for Dave at a Clemson. Ezekiel Elliott for Ben Schrager, Jonathan Taylor, and for me and Ben Gretsch, Jonathan Taylor for Heath, Clyde Edwards-Elair for Jamie Clyde Edwards-Elair, And for Chris Towers, Alvin
Starting point is 00:28:25 Kamara. So McCaffrey, Barkley, and then take your pick. Clyde Edwards-Elair, Jonathan Taylor, Travis Etienne, Ezekiel Elliott, Alvin Kamara. You know, I have no defense of any of these third picks at all. Like you're good with all of them? Well third picks at all.
Starting point is 00:28:46 Like you're good with all of them? Well, not Dave's. Etienne's awesome. I'm not saying he's not awesome. He's going to be awesome. Yeah. He's like Christian McCaffrey. I feel like he's been at Clemson for 16 years.
Starting point is 00:29:06 He's one of those players. Yeah, because he's coming back for his senior year, it seems. I'm not sure why he decided to do that. He would have been a first-round pick if he had come out. It was confusing. Maybe he wouldn't have been a first-round pick.
Starting point is 00:29:18 Maybe I'm completely overrating him. Is he older than Taylor and Clyde Edwards-Ealer? Probably about the same age i'd be stunned if he was older let me get you his age those guys i think are 20 or 21 or be 21 when the season starts for sure he is 21 years old he turned 21 in january he will be a 22 year old rookie in the nfl in 2021 so that is a little bit older than your typical rookie running back. That might be the biggest strike he has,
Starting point is 00:29:49 provided that he has another productive, healthy year at Clemson. There's got to be a reason why he went back. It does seem weird. Someone out there knows. Guys like that don't usually go back to college. Yeah. But, you know, Nick Chubb, I think he played four years, right?
Starting point is 00:30:04 Mm-hmm. Yep. He's a good example of an older running back. Etienne had two straight years with more than 1,600 rushing yards. Last year, he had over 2,000 total yards, which is amazing for a running back. Played 15 games. All three seasons, he's averaged 7.2 yards per carry or better. That's really amazing for Travis Etienne.
Starting point is 00:30:25 I take it back. I'll argue against Shraggy B and Chris Towers. Who do they pick? Kamara and? And Zeke. And Zeke? Yeah. Yeah, Shraggy B, get on here,
Starting point is 00:30:36 because Zeke is a pretty, is just awful. I thought about Zeke. What are you thinking, Shraggy B? You're the worst. You don't think Zeke can be elite for another three years? All I need is three elite years from Zeke. Yeah. That's fine.
Starting point is 00:30:52 He's in the conversation for sure. No chance. He's going to be 25 this year when the season starts. He can be elite until he's 28. That's enough for me. Yeah. If it was over the next three years, i think you would have been a good pick but i think one of clyde taylor chubb miles sanders josh jacobs one of those guys that's younger than him and doesn't have near as much
Starting point is 00:31:18 work are going to uh be significantly better i agree with that. I think it's very, very tough to choose that one guy. That's true. Yeah, I'll tell you, I am surprised. No DeAndre Swift. Maybe if we had like three more people doing this, DeAndre Swift would have gotten a vote. He landed in the wrong spot. Maybe not.
Starting point is 00:31:42 Maybe he didn't. Right. The coaching staff is going to change, and hopefully by 2021, it'll be really good. I think he could be pretty good this year. I just wish his coaching staff would see it like I see it.
Starting point is 00:31:55 Okay. I think that sums up running back. Let's go to wide receiver. Apparently, this was a crazy jumbled mess. Everybody had Michael Thomas, number one. Number two, this was crazy jumbled mess. Everybody had Michael Thomas, number one. Number two, this was a jumbled mess. Number two was Juju for Jamie, CD for Dave, Godwin for Heath, Tyreek Hill for me. Guess who?
Starting point is 00:32:19 I don't even have to tell you who Ben Gretsch chose. Who Ben Gretsch chose. He took AJ Brown over DJ Moore? He has Moore three and A.J. Brown two. Man, he is in the clouds. Tyree Kill for Ben Schrager. Great job, Schrager. You're the best.
Starting point is 00:32:36 And Juju Smith-Schuster for Chris. So that means Juju got two second place votes. Tyree Kill got two second place votes. Dave has C.Dee Lamb. Heath has Chris Goblin. And Ben Gretch has A.J. Brown. Third-place votes.
Starting point is 00:32:53 Tyreek Hill got one. DJ Moore got two. Chris Goblin got one. A.J. Brown got one. And Jamar Chase got one. Jamar Chase for LSU, I think he's going to be the best wide receiver prospect since the 2014 draft when he comes out this year. Could be.
Starting point is 00:33:16 He's better than CeeDee Lamb and Jerry Judy. He's kind of a combo of both of them. He's awesome. I think that's worse than the running back college player. Because these receivers are going to be good for six years. Yeah, but this one is going to be great. This could be the next Julio Jones, AJ Green. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:33:41 And maybe CeeDee Lamb could, too. Maybe one of the rookies from this year could. But CeeDee Lamb number two. I love Lamb and Judy. CeeDee Lamb number two, I think, is, to me, CeeDee Lamb could too. Maybe one of the rookies from this year could. But CeeDee Lamb number two. I love Lamb and Judy. CeeDee Lamb number two, I think, is... To me, CeeDee Lamb number two is worse than Jabbar Chase number three. Oh, I really like Lamb. And I think Dallas is a good spot.
Starting point is 00:33:55 When you say the next Julio Jones, AJ Green, Tyree Kill's been doing that for three years and probably is going to do it for another five or six. Yeah. I think you can make the case for that. Yes. I think, I think it looks like,
Starting point is 00:34:09 well, like I, I still really think Godwin or Juju could be that for the next five years. Okay. So, so let's see what, what the there again was no consensus.
Starting point is 00:34:21 Except Michael Thomas got 21 points. He got seven first place votes, three points for each first place vote. And then Juju Smith-Schuster and Tyree Kill were tied with five points. Chris Godwin and A.J. Brown were tied with three points. CeeDee Lamb had two points. DJ Moore had two points. And Jamar Chase had one. And our ballots, Dave had Thomas, Lamb, Chase.
Starting point is 00:34:46 Heath had Thomas, Godwin, Juju. I had Thomas, Tyreek Hill, A.J. Brown. I am an A.J. Brown believer, I guess, thanks to Ben Gretsch. But it was really tough to leave Juju off there. Really tough to leave guys. This was really tough, I mean, in general. I'm shocked you guys didn't have Tyreek Hill. Like, how do you not have Tyreek Hill?
Starting point is 00:35:05 Yeah, that's probably an oversight. The one thing I thought about with Hill was that he's so speed-based. I know why I didn't have Hill. Okay. Because in this window, he faces a period of time towards the end where his skills might actually be deteriorating. Right, right. He's 26. By the time this is over, he's going to be 32.
Starting point is 00:35:31 Those last two years might suck for Tyreek Hill. Juju, DJ Moore, Chris Godwin, they should not have any decline in this period. Maybe things will go wrong for them, but as long as things don't go wrong for them, we should get their peak during this period. Here's the problem, though, with every wide receiver on your list, Heath. Michael Thomas, Chris Godwin, Juju Smith-Schuster. They could have a different quarterback throwing to them as early as 2021. That's true. Does that bother you? Does that upset you? Does that make you lose sleep at night?
Starting point is 00:36:04 It doesn't bother me at all with Michael Thomas. Did you see him with Teddy Bridgewater? Yeah. I don't think Godwin will before 2022. I think Brady signed a two-year deal. No, he's going to retire if he
Starting point is 00:36:20 wins the Super Bowl. He's not going to win the Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes still exists. Then we're good. Juju, it worries me just a little bit. It worries me more than a little bit. But Juju might be catching passes from Aaron Rodgers next year.
Starting point is 00:36:36 That'd be fun. Again, Michael Thomas won by a huge margin. And then Juju, Tyreek were tied for second. Chris Goblin and A.J. Brown tied for fourth. CeeDee Lamb, D.J. Moore, Jamar Chase. 2020 to 2025, tight ends.
Starting point is 00:36:55 Everybody had George Kittle number one. Everybody had Mark Andrews number two. Let's stop there before we even get to number three. Are we all... We're sure Mark Andrews is really good? A, yes. I think he's a good player i think he's a good pass catching tight end and as a blocker he's okay but point back to what the ravens offense is what's working for them and he's basically been the most reliable pass catcher for lamar Jackson going back to when Lamar was starting
Starting point is 00:37:25 games in 2018. Best catch rate. Gets a lot of short and mid-range stuff. He can catch it and make plays after. He's big in the red zone. He does a ton of what you want from a tight end in fantasy football. And he's young. We had seven people voting. We had seven different selections for tight end three behind Kittle and Andrews. I think everybody listening should think of their own. Pause the podcast, think of who you would have third, and then jump back in.
Starting point is 00:37:58 Welcome back to Fantasy Football Tomorrow, everybody. Welcome back. JB had Goddard. Dave had Adam Troutman Saints baby Heath had Hunter Henry Adam Azar had Noah Fant Ben Gretch had TJ Hawkinson
Starting point is 00:38:15 Ben Schrager had Evan Ingram Chris Towers had Mike Gacicki Goddard Henry Fant Hawkinson Ingram G Gasicki. Well, Dave, once again, you stand out here with Adam Troutman. I love the landing spot for him. I'm a little disenchanted that the Saints said that they see him more as a receiver and blocking tight end
Starting point is 00:38:41 and not necessarily a full-fledged pass-catching tight end, but I think he can develop that and become better there and i think he's got a chance to be the next jimmy graham i i like troutman a lot um my concern is i feel like we just have to accept that he's going to be terrible the next two years um because tight ends with better pedigree than him are generally terrible for the first two years and so tight ends with better pedigree than him are generally terrible for the first two years and so by the time he's a big part of the offense i have the saints may be unrecognizable two years their coach gonna be who's their quarterback gonna be that matters but i think if sean payton is there i trust him to find a capable quarterback
Starting point is 00:39:21 there's been some there's been some rumblings that Sean Payton is about as long for New Orleans as Drew Brees is, right? That would change things for sure. There's no doubt. This is a pretty wacky pick, I've got to be honest with you. I love his talent. I'm not drafting him for 2020 at all. But if I had a pick in round three in Dynasty, I would have tabbed it for Adam Troutman. But do you think – because he was taken significantly later than Fant and Hawkinson, who were already into their one-year suck at the start of their career.
Starting point is 00:39:58 Yeah. They've got one of those under their belts, and they had a better pedigree than Troutman. So if you're going to go with a young tight end might i just take fanter hockinson because i considered hockinson very much with with trauma and i really like hockinson's skill set too but i don't think he's going to be great this year and he's going to need a coaching staff that's going to value him and we don't know what that's going to look like in detroit and kenny galladay's there and he's young and he can pull targets away and there's going to be someone that replaces marvin jones along the way so i'm a little worried about um the hockinson hitting the the type of ceiling that a first round tight end pick could have and that goes double for fan like hockinson's ahead
Starting point is 00:40:41 of fan for me 10 out of 10 especially after what the broncos did this year in the draft both with judy and hamler and don't forget about oku oku a new bomb yeah oku a bunam we've decided we're just going to call him albert o i'm fine with calling him oh he already has chemistry with drew lock they played together at mizzou he can end up being a better version of noah phan um adam what just just come on board with hunter henry adam why just come on he's only 26 years old you've got four more years he's going to be significantly better than phant and hawkinson and the young guys this year, probably next year. Just come on board. Take Henry or take Ingram.
Starting point is 00:41:29 We need to break this tie for number three. It can't be a seven-way tie. And Noah Fant's not the answer. And Dave's not going to change his choice. So just pick Hunter Henry or Evan Ingram. You know, I actually think Dallas Goddard is a really good pick here. I think I might go with him okay but my pick was noah fant but if you're making me pick someone other than noah i think i'm gonna go with dallas goddard who was jamie's pick okay i do need me to change my pick
Starting point is 00:41:58 keith is that what you're asking i like the fact that chris likech loves Mike Gasicki so much, and Chris put him on his top three, and Ben Gretsch didn't even put him on his top three. There's only one Evan Ingram for Ben Gretsch. Oh, no, no. Gretsch took Hawkinson. Gretsch took Hawkinson. Surprised by that. Heath, do you want me to change my pick?
Starting point is 00:42:19 No. No? Okay. No, we're good. I'm keeping Trotman. This was an interesting exercise to tie down. He fits in well with your squad. Let's fly through some emails here, fantasyfootballatcbsi.com, after we take a quick break on fantasy football today.
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Starting point is 00:44:11 Dear Creed, Stanley, Toby, and Kevin, let's rank those office characters real quick. Creed, Kevin, who? Creed, Stanley, Toby, and Kevin. Stanley, Kevin, Creed, Big Gap, Toby. Creed is hands down the worst character on the show. No, Toby's the worst. Toby's one of the best characters.
Starting point is 00:44:40 Well, that makes sense. But the whole point of him is that he is the worst. Yeah, but as a character. is that he is the worst yeah but his as a character exists to be the worst if you were going to eliminate one character from the office it's got to be creed everyone should eliminate toby toby gives us some of the best moments uh all right that scene where he finally gets michael to open up about his stepfather they're having like a therapy session. Michael realizes it halfway through.
Starting point is 00:45:07 Oh my God, it was the best. Okay. Our Auction Dynasty League. Three receivers. Super flex. Set up where our player's salary increases exponentially every year, making it harder and harder to keep them. I really want to keep Tyreek Hill, but at $45 out of a total budget of $300, it makes it hard.
Starting point is 00:45:24 It does. I have really good value with other receivers. I have Ridley at $23. Fuller at $9. Chark at $4. A.J. Brown at $4. Gallup at $10. Should I roll with this wide receiver group and trade my $45 Tyree Kill for a $20 Miles Sanders?
Starting point is 00:45:45 Yes. Well, yeah. Let's just do that and then we don't have to worry about the rest. Yeah, yeah. He's not overpriced at $45. Maybe compared to the rest of the league, but at a $300. But still, yes, save $25 and get Miles Sanders.
Starting point is 00:45:59 Wait a minute. Wait a minute. Okay. Yeah, I guess. If you're trading him for Sanders and then you can keep three more. I hate leagues that are like this. So he can trade Tyreek Hill for Miles Sanders and then keep two or three other players. I don't know. Just do it.
Starting point is 00:46:17 This is from Dan from? Boston. I wanted to hear your thoughts on 2021 draft picks. I believe there will be little to no college football played this year. So I'm trying to sell my 2021 picks for less than I normally would sell future draft picks. Two examples. I got Devin Singletary.
Starting point is 00:46:39 And then forget about the examples, but just what do you think about that concept of 2021 picks losing value because Dan in Boston doesn't think there's going to be college football? God, I hate to even entertain the thought. I have to, though, right? We have to answer his email? Listen, they said that they can't play college games if there are no kids on campus.
Starting point is 00:47:06 And the state of California told us there are going to be no kids on campus in fall. So I don't really know what that means. By the letter of the law, that means those schools in California, most of them are not playing college football. But bottom line, 2021's class is not near as exciting right now as 2020's class was at this point. Really? I'm disagreeing yeah disagree completely you've got the best wide receiver prospect in years you've got trevor lauren and there's gonna be other good fields at the top of the draft yep yep i don't know like at&t running back beat out by jakeomm. Look, Justin Fields seems like consensus number two pick right now,
Starting point is 00:47:47 I think. In... Okay. Yeah, but... In the mock draft. I was good with... Tua was the consensus number one. Tua would have been the consensus...
Starting point is 00:47:56 Tua would have been one or two if he didn't get hurt. Yeah, but Burrow wasn't on the radar. Do you think there was as much depth in this class as there was in the 2020 class? It wasn't as much. I have no idea. At wide receiver, apparently it's another very good year at wide receiver.
Starting point is 00:48:10 Probably not as deep as this year. It might be. It might be deeper and better. I think it's a really good draft class coming up. Yeah, yeah. But I mean, I get his point. If there's no football being played, do they even get drafted? Is there even a draft?
Starting point is 00:48:27 I think there would have to be. And so then these guys are going to get graded off of what they did in 2019. Yeah, I don't think there's still going to be a draft, even if there's no college football season. You might want to keep your 2021 picks. It might just be an unrecognizable college football season. It's hard to believe the SEC is not playing football this year. It could happen in the spring.
Starting point is 00:48:49 I mean, I think that's actually a quite realistic scenario. We have spring college football. Yeah. Yeah. And that's been talked about. I'm not just floating that out. That's been talked about a lot. Here's an email from Alex Kennedy.
Starting point is 00:49:02 Hey, Tom, Rob, Chris, and Mike. These, other than Mike, these are three of my good friends from college. And, like, all in the same group. Tom, Rob, and Chris. What was your problem with Mike? Tom, those are Buccaneers. Oh, yeah.
Starting point is 00:49:20 In a brand new Dynasty League, I have the second pick of the rookie draft. It's a super flex league with half PPR and half point per first down. The guy with the top pick is taking Clyde Edwards-Elair. With the second pick in the super flex league, should I take Joe Burrow or Jonathan Taylor? Do you need a quarterback? Yep. If you need one even remotely
Starting point is 00:49:45 then take Burrow. Otherwise don't. Okay, cool. And finally from Travis from the biggest town in the smallest state. Small estate is Rhode Island. Biggest town
Starting point is 00:50:02 is Coventry. Correct. Hey, Vic, Shane, Lem, and Ronnie. Who is it? Vic, Shane, Lem, and Ronnie? It's The Shield, the greatest show I've ever seen. Commissioner of a 14-team league with points per first down scoring. Yes. 0.1 for a passing first down,
Starting point is 00:50:25 0.5 for a rushing, and one full yard for a receiving first down. The teams that never win or have lost close games often try to shift blame to this scoring format. What do you think about this format? I love rewarding first downs over catches because if a dude catches a screen or, you know,
Starting point is 00:50:47 a five yard curl or seven yard crossing route and is tackled immediately, that's worth a point, I guess. But if they get a first down, the chains are moving, offense is going downfield. And for receivers, there isn't that big of a drop off generally.
Starting point is 00:51:04 Not very big drop off. I should say there is a drop-off generally. Not very big drop-off, I should say. There is a drop-off from catches to first downs. Well, it's very important. Like this guy, you can't, if you do a point per first down for everyone, then receivers might be useless. Like if there's no catches and running backs get the same, he's giving a half for a rushing first down and a full for receiving first down.
Starting point is 00:51:28 I think that makes more sense. Um, I like it. The problem with it is, is I've not found a good way to project it. Um, and that, that makes me not like it.
Starting point is 00:51:39 But other than that, I really like it. I don't think you can project it. Oh, that, that that's the fun of it is that you can it's you know starting a kicker made the same joke at the same time all right everybody we are out of here have an awesome weekend watch thank you for listening
Starting point is 00:51:59 yeah and tonight's winning lottery numbers are 6 16 26 36 47 47 why not 46 this is a nice pattern there sorry happy belated birthday to shraggy b i'm sorry i forgot about it the other day and uh we'll talk to you on monday on fantasy football today, yesterday, future. I have no idea what tent simply, but we'll see you then. Nah, nah, nah, nah,
Starting point is 00:52:28 nah, nah, nah.

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