Fantasy Football Today - FFYesterday: Biggest Breakouts, One-Year Wonders and Outlier Games (05/13 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: May 13, 2020

We begin with a thorough discussion about Davante Adams (4:26). He does not excel in yards per target, so what happens if his targets decrease? Is that really going to happen? Do we have any actual c...oncerns about him? Then we get into the news and notes (14:38) as the Raiders are talking as if they are going to play 1950's football. And what will the Giants offense look like with Jason Garrett calling plays? ... It's time to turn back the clock for Fantasy Football YESTERDAY! Who are the biggest one-year wonders from 1997-2019 (24:00)? Steve Slaton and Peyton Hillis come to mind, but who else made the cut? And which 2019 star might be a one-year wonder (31:40)? ... Finishing up with the best breakout seasons of the era (35:00) and the biggest outlier games (44:40). Remember Ronnie Brown in the Wildcat? Remember Marvin Jones' other game with four TDs? Remember Nick Foles throwing seven TD passes? ... Your emails at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com and tweet us with #AskFFT 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow the new FFT Twitch channel: https://www.twitch.tv/FFToday Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @YardsPerGretch, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 This is Fantasy Football Yesterday from the Sports Division of Columbia Broadcasting System. Phone us at Klondike 5-1212. It's time to dominate your fantasy league, if you have a time machine. Now, here's some swell combination of mr hazer mr richard mr eisenberg mr cummings and mr grouch another edition of fantasy football yesterday welcome back everybody what's going on adam azer here with a very lively jamie eisenberg you've got some pep in your step this morning, sir. I'm so mad at you right now. Okay, we'll get back to that.
Starting point is 00:00:48 We've got a pretty normal, regular, typically lively Heath Cummings. What's up, Heath? Yeah, I'm feeling my just median liveliness. Yeah, yeah, all right. And then, I don't know, he looked like a sleepy ben gretch because it's it's pretty early for ben it's 6 30 in the morning how are you doing ben i'm good yeah i'm kind of asleep i was up a little bit late last night my wife gave me a
Starting point is 00:01:15 little trim i finally finally gave in and let her do the sides and back of my hair so hopefully that looks all right it does she did a nice job uh jamie what did i do you are such a terrible friend it's unbelievable how terrible a friend you are well i'm just surprised you consider me a friend to begin with well i do consider your friend but um this person may not consider your friend anymore after what you've done so far today what did i do it's just it's so bad what you've done i have zero idea how long have we been talking mic check and the start of the show 10 minutes is it somebody's birthday today yeah it is and you're just a jerk whose birthday total total jerk ben schrager's birthday he's actually 12 years old
Starting point is 00:01:55 no way shaggy b it's your birthday yeah i turned 13 happy birthday ben schrager and you know i mean unbelievable how did you know I mean Unbelievable How did you know it was his birthday? Well because we're Facebook friends You're probably not No I don't think we are I don't really do I don't do it
Starting point is 00:02:11 The only Facebook thing I do is our Facebook group I saw that it was his birthday And I texted him before making this So that I couldn't actually say that I didn't wish him a happy birthday as well So I wanted him to know that I was thinking of him And so you're just a jerk Hey happy birthday ben how old are you now 23 23 wow right into his prime yeah you know i'm all about the 23 year olds you know i don't know if it's just my football my okay ben that's another clip uh i don't know if it's because my brain isn't working yet it's only
Starting point is 00:02:47 9 30 in the morning i guess that's early but as jamie was you know i can see everybody here we're on skype as jamie was saying it's ben strager's birthday i was staring at ben gretch the entire time i was like oh it's ben gretch in my mind it was ben gretch's birthday i had the wrong oh did you tell heath what you did to ben the other day what did i do i didn't he i didn't see him in the bathroom that's to referring to no on uh on our show tuesday which was recorded monday so he uh my two-year-old showed up um and was on simon was on the show and then at the end of the show, Adam says, for Dave, for Jamie, for Heath, for Jamie, Simon,
Starting point is 00:03:30 have a great show. He totally forgot Ben was on the show. I replaced Ben with Heath. So, Heath, I guess you were on my mind. I don't know what to say. I think you replaced me with Dave earlier in the week. I do it all the time. It's very hard.
Starting point is 00:03:45 People don't realize how hard it is to know who's on the show. All right, so today on the show, let's see if I even know the topics we're talking about. It's fantasy football yesterday from 1997 to 2019, the best one-year wonders.
Starting point is 00:03:57 And I'm giving you guys some fodder, an easy way to make fun of me because one of my one-year wonders is just a terrible pick. I'm just doing that for you, for your benefit. The biggest breakouts, the biggest outlier games.
Starting point is 00:04:08 Remember Ronnie Brown and the Wildcat? We'll talk about that game. We'll talk about more. And then we'll spin it to 2020. Who are going to be the one-year wonders from last year, for example? Who are going to be the breakouts this year? So that's coming up. A few news items, mostly about the Raiders.
Starting point is 00:04:24 But let's start with our big topic. Oh, and your emails, fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Big topic for today. I guess I'm just, you know, like kind of a curmudgeon this week, trying to crush Nick Chubb's fantasy value. I'm going to ask you about Devontae Adams. And because he's not, because he doesn't exactly excel in yards per target, I hope that's the right way to say it, when you look at the elite receivers, he's not because he doesn't exactly excel in yards per target i hope that's the right way to say it when you look at the elite receivers right he's not quite up there and yards per catch for that
Starting point is 00:04:51 matter what if he sees fewer targets the last two years davante adams is at a target share around 30 percent and that is enormous they didn't do anything to suggest he won't get that target share but what if they just throw the ball less uh and have we glossed over the fact that on a per game basis he was 10th in non-ppr and only sixth in ppr last year are the packers transitioning to be more like say the titans where matt lafleur used to coach um does anybody have a concern about that based on the rankings no because i ben i don't have your rankings but dave jamie jamie and heath all have adams number two overall uh at wide receiver how about you i have tyree kill
Starting point is 00:05:32 ahead of him and this is a reason why i mean i i'm not i think adams is going to see a ton of targets but um i think i don't i don't think we can be as sure that Adams is just going to be a top-two receiver, and it's part of the reason why I'm comfortable putting Hill ahead of him. I think they're a toss-up. Obviously, I'm playing sort of a worst-case scenario here for him. There's a lot to like about Devontae Adams. But I just want to bring this up because I wonder what direction the Packers are going. And, Jamie, I think at one point you even flirted with putting Devontae Adams number one.
Starting point is 00:06:07 Because you see that kind of potential. I still might. I don't look at the whole season. I look at what he did when he came back from the toe injury. Because I think it was a different guy. I think that's the guy that we're going to see. Because that's the guy that we saw the year before. And so, you know, while he had, you know, it was basically the Philadelphia game.
Starting point is 00:06:24 Because they were feeling their way out. And I think this is something to keep in mind with the entire Packers offense. That was their first year with LaFleur. First year for Rodgers. We had the growing pains that those two guys went through. It was great for Aaron Jones. I think this defense is going to put them in some uncomfortable situations because they can't stop the run still. I'm not sold that they fixed their run defense and we saw it was miserable last year so is their pass rush and secondary going to cover for some of the matchups that they're going to face and what we saw from davante adams uh his first three games were not i think indicative of who he is of the season so we had three games of nine targets or less we had no touchdowns in the first four games. The Philadelphia game,
Starting point is 00:07:05 that first half was magical. Then he had the toe injury. And then he had the three games that he sat out, four games that he sat out, excuse me. And what do we see? When he came back, that was the guy I think that everybody drafted last year. That's the player I think you should expect to see. And that's the guy Aaron Rodgers is going to rely on. So it was every game with 10 or more, sorry, all but one, 10 or more targets in, in,
Starting point is 00:07:28 in the six games to close the season. I think he's going to have a monster, monster season. There's eight games. Yeah. Sorry. Eight games to close the season. In fact,
Starting point is 00:07:37 I think, well, I'm sorry. I'm after their bye week. Excuse me. Well, either way. I mean,
Starting point is 00:07:41 you look at their last 10 games, you include the playoffs, the last 10 games he played, he had double-digit targets in nine of them. But that's kind of my point. And again, I would take Adams as either number two or three at receiver. So I'm not trying to dump on him. I'm just bringing up this possibility. My point is he did get peppered with targets.
Starting point is 00:08:01 And the number two player on the team in targets was Aaron Jones last year. I think he had 68. So if they throw less, if they get Sternberger involved, if Alan Zaza takes a jump, if Devontae Adams doesn't get double-digit targets in basically every single game, is there bust potential there?
Starting point is 00:08:20 Just to try to answer the question, I just did the math. I've got him projected for 166, which is like 10.4 per game. He was at 10.6, I think, last year. Two years ago, he was at just over 11 per game. If you put him at 140 targets with the efficiency I'm expecting from Adams, then he would fall all the way to number four.
Starting point is 00:08:50 Do you have the numbers he would have with 140 targets? 91 catches, 1,120 yards, eight touchdowns. Now, there's a little bit... He's been more efficient the last two years than he had been for most of his career. That's also the two years he was featured in the offense. Right. Yeah. I think he's just developed into a better player.
Starting point is 00:09:10 But barring injury, I would say his floor is pretty close to a top five wide receiver. Nobody has the floor of the number two receiver. So I'm not particularly concerned of his targets. I don't think there's much risk he's below 140 targets yeah probably not i'm surprised though 91 catches 1100 yards eight touchdowns is why they go over on all three well i'm just surprised that that comes out to wide receiver four that feels low i know last year was a bad year for wide receivers. Well, I am doing the math on a calculator on my phone while I'm talking. So 1,120 is 112 points plus 91 points for the catches. That's 203, right?
Starting point is 00:09:55 Yes. Plus, I actually did have eight and a half touchdowns. So it would be 51. That'd be 254. That's basically in a tie with chris godwin deandre hopkins and dj moore which is in your projections yeah okay 254 fantasy points uh-huh well let's see i mean i agree with heath and jamie particularly well i think jamie's more talking about the ceiling but heath in particular that his floor is very strong i there's there's
Starting point is 00:10:24 not enough competition here for us to really be concerned about Adam's targets. But I also think Adam makes a good point that he's never had more than 8.2 yards per target. That's not really what we see from these top elite receivers. These guys can go way above that in terms of per target efficiency. He has always been really good in terms of touchdowns, his touchdown rate on a per-target basis up until really last year where he only had five, but he had three straight years before that with double-digit scores. I think those touchdowns are really important, and it would be nice to see him be a little bit more efficient with the yardage, certainly. I think he does have a little bit more risk on the upside perspective because he's not so efficient in terms of yards per target but again i i can't really disagree with jamie's point either that
Starting point is 00:11:12 the the targets could just be so massive that that creates a huge feeling and it's also adam you know you brought this up in regards to mark cooper and the schedule he faces the schedule for adams min Minnesota secondary is revamped. Maybe better. Bad. But revamped. It's a good matchup. Detroit loses Darius Slay, revamped.
Starting point is 00:11:34 He's got New Orleans. That's the one that stands out that could be tough. Tampa Bay secondary certainly improved. He beat up San Francisco in the playoffs. They play them, but that's a good secondary. And Chicago's defense is going to be tough. He's got Philadelphia too. It's a pretty light going to be tough. He's got Philadelphia, too. It's a pretty light schedule. He had a tougher schedule last year. Right.
Starting point is 00:11:51 I think it's kind of interesting. Heath, maybe this just speaks to how you can't project great seasons. But 254 fantasy points in PPR almost certainly would not be number four. It would be worse.
Starting point is 00:12:06 It's been six or seven. I just looked. It's been six or seven in three of the past four years. Or maybe eight, but depending on whether you're using per game or the total points. Then one year, I think it was like 12th, because 2018 was a stupid good year for receivers.
Starting point is 00:12:21 Right. Glad we had that conversation. And we'll talk more about it. Oh, here's a fun fact about Matt LaFleur's offense. He's been the head coach or the offensive coordinator in three seasons. And I know Sean McVay was calling plays. But in all three of those seasons,
Starting point is 00:12:40 a running back has been second on the team in targets. How about that? Not necessarily per game, but... Here comes Jamal Williams. I mean, I guess Deion Lewis was second in targets in 2018. He's had some pretty crappy receiving courses. And he has another one. But he's never had a player like that, though.
Starting point is 00:13:01 No, but I mean, I know Devonta Adams is going to be number one in targets, but who's going to be number two in targets? It could be Aaron Jones. I do think it's interesting, though. I don't think that's going to be Aaron Jones. Yeah, but Aaron Jones' target spiked so much when Adams was out. Yeah, no, you're right. I don't think it's going to be him.
Starting point is 00:13:15 I take that back. It'd be great if it was A.J. Dillon. It's going to be Alan Lazard. It should be Lazard. Yeah. You would think. All right, news and notes, guys. Before that, let's promote a few things cbs sports hq not only are you getting your fantasy football today content
Starting point is 00:13:31 yes live noon eastern all week on cbs sports hq or should i say fantasy football yesterday uh but it's not just that you download this dhq app cbs sports hq app it's free i got on my roku you can get it on your Amazon Fire, Apple TV, whatever. And it's gambling advice. It's fantasy advice. We react to breaking news. It's highlights. It's sports coverage that's simple. I said the word simple, not that it's bad, but it's not stupid, loudmouth opinions and people yelling at each other. It's smart. It's what you grew up watching. It's why we loved sports coverage when we were younger. It's awesome. CBS Sports HQ, very just like professional and comprehensive. So download the app. It's 24-7. It's completely free.
Starting point is 00:14:16 And, of course, Fantasy Football Today is live noon Eastern all week long. And join our Facebook group. Search for Fantasy Football Today on Facebook or click on the link in the description the episode description and you can chat with our FFT team and other fantasy fans and we have threads for all of the fantasy football yesterday theme so you can leave your picks for the best one-year wonder and all those types of things all right Dave sent me a quote from uh John Gruden of the Las Vegas Raiders. And he said, quote, we want to use three tight ends at a time.
Starting point is 00:14:48 No disrespect to the receivers, but we're going to put three tight ends out there. Morrow, Waller, Jason Witten, we're going to run it in play action. We're going to play old school football. We have a fullback, so we're going to use a two-back set with Josh Jacobs and Alec Ingold, end quote.
Starting point is 00:15:03 That would literally mean no receivers. Just for people who aren't doing the math on skill positions, three tight ends, a fullback, and a running back leaves no receivers. I'll take the over. I mean, that's old school. That is old school. But, you know, I guess kind of a similar question with what I talked about with the Packers.
Starting point is 00:15:25 What do you think about the Raiders offense? I mean, we had this conversation on Twitch, right? We were talking about one-hit wonders with Darren Waller. This is the fear, is that there's a lot of mouths to feed, and the guy who had a breakout season in 27, forget about why he got there, but, you know, he was the guy because they had no one else, and they invested heavily
Starting point is 00:15:48 in the NFL draft and weapons, and they bring in a Hall of Famer at the same position. But this would be great for Darren Waller. He's going to have wide receivers on the field. He's the best threat in the passing game. That's very true. What does it make you think for Josh Jacobs? I think
Starting point is 00:16:04 it's mostly nonsense. I do too. Gruden has said a lot of things. What does it make you think for Josh Jacobs? I think it's mostly nonsense. Okay. I do too. Gruden has said a lot of things, and I just don't buy into this at all. Okay. Can we get Frank Caliendo on to read that quote? The Raiders are also close to signing cornerback Prince Amukamara. And a couple more notes.
Starting point is 00:16:23 Mohamed Sanu is out of his walking boot. He's recovering from ankle surgery. If Edelman's the number one receiver there, would you rather have Mohamed Sanu or Nikhil Harry as the number two on the Patriots? Harry by a lot. Yeah, I think I project Sanu for more right now, but it's just like we've seen absolutely nothing from Nikhil Harry.
Starting point is 00:16:44 Sanu's weird because he looks really good It's just like we've seen absolutely nothing from Nikhil Harry. Sanu's weird because he looks really good and has had some moments, but was just irrelevant. Heath just called Adam weird. He said, you're weird, Sanu. Sanu weird. Yeah. I think there's going to be a lot of receiving cores like this where the the third guy probably based on the depth chart is probably a lot better than the second.
Starting point is 00:17:11 Maybe not a lot better, but better than the second guy. And that guy's going to have numbers that are frustrating. But the most important, like assuming that they're just going to run a semi similar similar offense like with jared stidham at quarterback do we really care which receiver is second in targets i think so i mean we don't know how good or bad stidham is but i don't i mean is he gonna target edelman as highly is he gonna be that dependent on the slot and the and the option routes and and probably to a to a degree just because of the offense and what they're going to teach him when what they've presumably already taught him um but like he will still throw enough that i mean i don't know unless unless you think the patriots are going to play defense and ball
Starting point is 00:18:01 control and win 13 games which i i can't figure out their offseason, but that's something that I've considered. Maybe Belichick's just going to mad scientist. Again, we keep saying the same thing, but there are some reports out of Boston and New England that once Karras, I think, signs his if they can work out a long-term deal with him,
Starting point is 00:18:20 then they sign Cam. Then they have the money for Cam. That's their center? Or their guard? No, their center or their guard so man if they get Cam they're the favorites again right in the east or the league
Starting point is 00:18:35 maybe I really don't know how good again if Cam Newton is not the mobile well his competitions Ryan Fitzpatrick Sam Darnold and I really don't know how good, again, if Cam Newton is not the mobile. Well, his competitions, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Sam Darnold, and Josh Allen. Well, two of them. No, I think that.
Starting point is 00:18:54 I'm sorry, it's Joe Tooney, not Ted Kerr. Okay, right, right, right. Okay. No, what I would say is if Cam Newton's not healthy, if he's not the same dynamic player he is, he's not that good of a passer. I still think the Bills could be better than them. He's been a better passer than Josh Allen. He is, but he's not a better rusher anymore than Josh Allen in this hypothetical scenario.
Starting point is 00:19:16 You know? Adam, if I gave you $100... No, I'm sorry. If you had to take $100 from your wife to bet on one of the teams in the East and Cam Newton's on the Patriots where you bet your money? I think it's a very flawed roster. I guess I'd take the Patriots, but I really think the Bills could win the East. See, my
Starting point is 00:19:35 thought with the flawed roster thing is like we've thought that so many times. They've had Tom Brady. Yeah, but they've also found production from a lot of places. Belichick knows this roster better than we do. That's all I'm saying. But they weren't really that good last year. I mean,
Starting point is 00:19:51 their offensive line is as bad as it... That's the big thing for me. They've always had a great offensive line. That was not the case last year. I don't think that'll be the case this year. What's their strength? Who would you take? If Cam Newton goes to the Patriots, who would you take? I would take Bill Belichick.
Starting point is 00:20:07 Yeah, I'll take the Patriots and give you a game and a half. Yeah. I don't think we're being, anybody is being fair to Cam Newton. No, I agree with that. But Cam Newton is not a bad of a passer. We don't know.
Starting point is 00:20:21 Yeah, MVP who went to a Super Bowl and who, yeah, he wasn't very good the last time we saw him, but as a passer, he was the best we'd seen. Okay, I'm just saying, in my hypothetical scenario, it was not Cam Newton. It was Cam Newton, basically an old, broken-down Cam Newton who's not really a running threat anymore. That guy, I don't think, is a very impactful player. No disrespect to the Panthers coaching staff, this would be the best coaches he's ever played with and so you know do they mold him a little bit differently offseason being what it is uh it'd be it'd be fun for fantasy
Starting point is 00:20:54 forget about the real life you know expectations you know to have him back with a team like that where you know he's probably gonna have to run a little bit maybe they encourage it and to circle back to the question about harry the reason i i think you would take harry over sanu and whether it's cam or stidham it's just upside and we know he's a first round pick we know uh was a first round pick last year we know he wasn't very good last year he was hurt but um has those kind of number one traits and And the thing, one thing that is kind of sticking with me more as we go through this off season is he was way more productive than Brandon Ayuk in 2018 at Arizona state.
Starting point is 00:21:34 And then Ayuk, and Ayuk had transferred from, from a junior college, but Ayuk really blew up after Harry left. And, you know, I look at age adjusted production and Harry left. And, you know, I look at age-adjusted production, and Harry's track record was very strong.
Starting point is 00:21:48 But it's also notable that the next year, another first-round receiver comes out of that same college, and Harry was way better than him. So I think there's still plenty of upside for Harry to have, like, the DJ Chark type second-year breakout, even though he wasn't very good in year one. All right, last note is joe judge giants head coach said that the offense is going to look similar to jason garrett's offense
Starting point is 00:22:09 and you know if you just look at jason garrett's tenure with the cowboys and the years he was calling plays versus the years he was not calling plays in my opinion is a's a pretty, I'm not going to say bad, but mediocre track record. Yes. They were typically better with a different play caller. So I don't know what that, what does that mean to you guys in terms of, they were better in terms of points per game, by the way, but what the Giants offense will look like if it's similar to Jason Garrett's? A lot of running. They don't have a receiver that compares to anybody that Garrett coached at that time.
Starting point is 00:22:54 That's probably not fair. Maybe they do, but we haven't seen that yet. So I don't think Shepard's going to be a Dez Bryant type of guy. Maybe Slayton is. No, you're right. I was always a little fuzzy. Like, other than last year, I was always a little fuzzy in Dallas
Starting point is 00:23:10 whether Garrett was calling plays or not. And it felt like that was kind of a fluid thing throughout the middle of certain years. But one thing I seem to remember is there were not near as many targets for running backs when Jason Garrett was calling plays. I think it's worth looking into. All right, let's take a break here on Fantasy Football today.
Starting point is 00:23:31 And when we come back, we're going back in time to Fantasy Football yesterday, the biggest one-hit wonders, the outlier seasons, the breakouts, or the outlier games, rather. And we'll spin it ahead and talk about 2020 as well. We'll be right back. Kick off an exciting football season with BetMGM, an official sportsbook partner of the National Football League. Yard after yard, down after down,
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Starting point is 00:25:20 Let's talk about the biggest one-year wonders. Okay, who you got ben gretch well peyton hillis and steve slayton are kind of the two that that just pop out and come to mind the two guys that were incredible for one season and then just as inexplicably, we're gone the next. Yes, those were the top two for me as well. And that was 2008, Steve Slayton. 2010, Peyton Hillis. I'm really weird because it seems like everybody had those two as their top two. And they did not make my three that I sent in. Okay, who were your big one-year wonders?
Starting point is 00:26:06 My first one was Josh Gordon. My second one was RG3. And my third one was Gary Barnage. Oh, just terrible picks. All of them. They are good picks.
Starting point is 00:26:23 Yeah. Jamie, where do you come out? Ben, what was your third, by the way? Yeah, I had... I actually didn't even send in Hillis because I knew he would be on enough lists, but I did do Slayton and Barnage. And then I put Brandon Lloyd,
Starting point is 00:26:39 which he never had another 1,000-yard season. And that big year in Denver kind of came out of nowhere, but he was still pretty productive again, the next year, just under a thousand yards and, and had another decent season with New England later on. But it was just wild that he came out of nowhere, led the league with 1,448 yards.
Starting point is 00:27:01 And like I said, never even hit a thousand again, had 11 touchdowns, never had more than six touchdowns again in any other season. That one year, I think I said, never even hit 1,000 again. Had 11 touchdowns, never had more than six touchdowns again in any other season that one year. I'm pretty sure it was the overall wide receiver won that year, and it was just kind of out of nowhere. Yeah, I have one like that too.
Starting point is 00:27:16 But like Brandon, this is the one you guys can make fun of me for. I had Musa Muhammad as my third. Nope. Because he was not a wonder wonder, but his 2004 season is so funny. He had basically been completely irrelevant the two
Starting point is 00:27:35 years before that, I'm pretty sure. And then, he's the number one wide receiver in fantasy in 2004 with 1,400 yards and 16 touchdowns. And that era, the number one wide receiver, it's like Marvin Harrison, Marvin Harrison, Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison,
Starting point is 00:27:51 bam, Moussa Mohamed just pops up this year in 2004 after his career had been sort of on the downslope. So I just couldn't believe, like that season blows my mind. When did he go to the Bears? Right after that? Yep, right after that yep right after that so steve smith had cut it was was a lot younger but had had started with caroline the year before and had been involved in 20 2002 and 2003 and then in 2004 he breaks his leg in the preseason and that's what sparked musa muhammad's huge 2004 and then they let muhammad
Starting point is 00:28:23 walk he was a free agent and then ste then Steve Smith immediately has a monster 2005. He has one of the best quotes of all time, Muhammad. As a member of the Bears, he said, Chicago is where receivers go to die. Because that was at the point where they couldn't get a good wide receiver to perform well there. And then it was the Marshall-Jeffrey duo that sort of broke through that. He scored seven touchdowns in the three seasons before 2004.
Starting point is 00:28:47 And then he scored 16 in 2004. But 99, 2000, I mean, he was a really good receiver, basically 98 through 2000. So it was not a one-hit wonder. He would have been a really good choice for the best breakouts. But that wasn't a breakout. He's the best choice for the injury. He's actually a really good choice for injury replacement. Yeah, the injury replacement. He's the best. Injury replacement, yeah. he's that he's the best choice actually really good choice for injury yeah the injury replacement he's the injury replacement yeah gotta be one of the best there
Starting point is 00:29:09 all right jamie what were your top three one year wonders well uh one is uh a little different but kind of ties in with all this the browns actually could feel a fantasy lineup of one hit wonders uh derrick anderson's one um 2007 season when when he was a fantasy darling that year. And then you have Hillis, Gordon and Varnage. So you get a quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end. But Anderson's one just to be different. Nick Foles is 2013 season. I mean, you know, he's obviously had moments, but that year was his best fantasy season by far. And then Justin Forsett in 2014 with Baltimore when he replaced Bill Rice
Starting point is 00:29:48 with his situation. So he never did much before or after that. And that 2014 season he had 1,500 total yards, eight touchdowns, and 44 catches. That was the year that got Gary Kubiak back as a head coach because he was the offense coordinator for the Ravens. And then the Broncos hired him the next season. All right.
Starting point is 00:30:09 If you want to compare some ADP of some of the players we talked about, Steve Slayton was the second pick of round two. So he was the 14th pick in the draft in 2009, and he was terrible. And let's see, we'll check 2011 for Peyton Hillis. I think he was more of like a third or fourth round pick. He was a little bit later. And then what was Josh Gordon's big year? 2013.
Starting point is 00:30:32 All right, so let's check some ADP for 2013. You said 13? Yeah. Okay, so we'll check for 2014. I'm kind of interested, yeah, because that was... Well, he was suspended, so I don't know when he would have been drafted. Yeah, all right. I won't check that.
Starting point is 00:30:50 We'll see where he shows up. Another one that we didn't mention, Jordan Reed, 2015. I think that was Chris Towers who suggested that one. Yeah, that's a good one. Another guy that we, you know, similar to Gordon, we were chasing for a few years for, okay, this will be the season season i think as as far back as 2018 we were still ranking him as the top 12 by then yeah and i took him in our best seasons draft on on monday and from a points per game perspective he looks good like his his best his season is you know belongs in the in the top eight
Starting point is 00:31:21 but if you just look at total points because he missed a couple games he probably didn't belong in that draft because there was only eight of us drafting. No, no, I think we talked about this on HQ because Dave's whole philosophy was points per game. And he took Tony Gonzalez after you took Reed in that same round. And I asked him, you know, what would you have
Starting point is 00:31:38 done? And he said, you know, he said he was struggling because he didn't have a tight end at that point. And so his points per game i remember just to ask dave the question reed was at 17.7 there were only three tight ends over 18 points uh in a season which was kelsey graham and gronk so reed was right there yeah and and gonzalez uh despite some people thinking he's better than gronk um gonzalez best season was 16.9 but what i think is most fascinating about that read season and i
Starting point is 00:32:07 was kind of hemming and hawing but um from weeks 14 to week 16 the fantasy playoffs he never scores fewer than 27 ppr points he goes 27 27.4 then goes over 33 he averaged as a tight end averaged over the fancy playoffs more than 29 PPR points per game. It's more than four points per game better than any other tight end ever. Let's spin it ahead here. Heath, who are some one-year wonders you think may be from 2019?
Starting point is 00:32:37 We look back at 2019 and say, this guy's going to be a one-year wonder. This is a terrible exercise. I'm not criticizing you. i've already done it and it's just not any fun at all because like you really need to choose guys that you actually think are good and um that's that's not fun but i'll say davante parker um i'm gonna count ryan tannahill uh he's kind of like brandon, though, right? He's had some good years, but not great. Right. He was the
Starting point is 00:33:08 second best quarterback in fantasy once he started last year. I'm not so sure. I think it might be more likely that Debo Samuel is Dante Pettis than a future top 20 receiver. Adam, if you want, we're doing this for HQ. I have Heath, Ben, and Dave's answers for this. I can give you the list if you want so we're doing this for hq i have heath ben's and dave's answers
Starting point is 00:33:26 for this i just give you the list you want it whatever yeah those are you guys so um so uh i don't remember who gave which ones aside from what he just said but uh derrick henry aaron jones ronald jones courtland sutton, Michael Gallup, Darren Waller, and Tyler Higbee. And so for those of you that are interested, I'm going to make Ben Gretsch and Dave fight on HQ today about Tyler Higbee because Dave has Higbee as one of his breakout candidates. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:33:59 And I don't, I just don't know about Waller. It's just what he did last year was, was just elite. Well, we're not obviously saying that this is going to. I mean, these are just guys that fall into that category of potential one-hit wonders. Guys that either had a spike in production after down years. Devontae Parker is the best example of that.
Starting point is 00:34:18 Or a guy that came out of nowhere that's a little bit older, like Waller. Which is the one you feel most sure about most confident in that they're going to be one year wonders i suggested waller and he's not the one i feel most confident in we just talked about him earlier this week i think he's probably going to be fine i think his targets are coming down and everything but and that will go down as a career year more more than likely but yeah i think it's going to be fine i i think aaron jones is an excellent excellent suggestion. I don't necessarily want to say it,
Starting point is 00:34:48 and I don't agree with it, but it's an excellent suggestion. It's almost as good as Derrick Henry is bad. If Aaron Jones... Well, I had both of those. If Aaron Jones has six touchdowns, it wouldn't shock me at all.
Starting point is 00:35:03 Derrick Henry was a top 12 back in 2018 so like he can't be a one-year winner he's already had two good years yeah but okay so i it depends on the way you define it for sure and i i agree with that in just in general but he went from 1150 total yards to 1750 total yards he added 600 total yards he for the first time rushed you know 300 300 times in a season. His previous career was 215. He went from 12 touchdowns to 18 touchdowns. I mean, yes, he was also good another year.
Starting point is 00:35:32 He's not a one-year wonder, but I also think that 2019 will go down as his career year. I agree with that. All right, let's talk about the biggest breakout seasons from 1997 to 2019, this era that we've been talking about. The sports line era. The biggest breakout seasons. Jamie, what were your favorites? Favorites? This is a weird one because we all, or not we all, but
Starting point is 00:35:59 there were a lot of votes for Mahomes. His breakout season is kind of like we're projecting, you know, which I think we're all confident that he's going to be a pretty good player. But, you know, after not playing his rookie year and then doing what he did in 2018. Oh, it's a great pick.
Starting point is 00:36:16 Arian Foster in 2010, you know, where he had that three-year stretch of just being awesome. It's so funny because we had this conversation on both of our platforms, on HQ and here, about the Mount Rushmore running backs. And I think you look at Foster wasn't as good at his peak as Priest Holmes was, but he did a little bit longer. And I almost feel like he might be a better candidate than Holmes is, just a little bit based on longevity.
Starting point is 00:36:44 Holmes, again, his spikes are higher, so I get it. But Antonio Brown, his 2013 season, that started a six-year run of just being an absolute beast, and Gronk in 2011 too. Gronk certainly made my list because he didn't have a great rookie year, and he was the 12th tight end drafted that year, and he had the greatest tight end season ever,
Starting point is 00:37:06 at least in this era. I can't imagine before 1997 there was a better tight end season than what Gronkowski did. Did you say he didn't have a great rookie year? He didn't. Did he? He scored double-digit touchdowns. What did he have, like 600 yards?
Starting point is 00:37:18 No, he didn't. No, he was not. He was the tight end 11, and he had 10 touchdowns. Oh, tight end 11. He was a tight end one, I said. Okay, okay, okay. But he He was the tight end 11, and he had 10 touchdowns. Oh, tight end 11. He was a tight end one, I said. Okay, okay, okay. But he was not the tight end one. Yeah, but I mean, for a rookie, he wasn't.
Starting point is 00:37:31 Where did he get drafted? That, to me, is a great rookie year. He got drafted as the number 12 tight end. So I think people probably say, oh, he scored a lot of touchdowns. But how many yards did he have? 546. 546 yards. So he's, yeah, okay.
Starting point is 00:37:47 It really wasn't like, it was a great touchdown season but 546 yards not anything to write home about obviously but uh okay his career 2011 launched the greatest tight end career ever basically um and then he hasn't played 16 games in a season since that's interesting first two seasons he hit 16 games never did it again i uh i think jamie said all but one of the guys that i sent in um because i had mahomes i had foster i think i had gronk uh but marvin harrison his first three years he did not crack 900 yards. And then in 1999, 115 catches, 1,663 yards, 12 touchdowns. And then he goes on an eight-year stretch where he averages 105 catches, 1,425 yards, and 13 touchdowns per year. He was remarkable. It's such a weird category because you could define this so many different ways.
Starting point is 00:38:50 Rookie season breakouts. It's so hard to say, okay, is that the year? We look back on A.J. Brown, for example. Is 2019 going to be the year that was his breakout? That's the question. And then just started his meteoric rise? Yeah, I think DJ Chark, to me, is it possible that DJ Chark, in his second year breakout
Starting point is 00:39:12 after the very quiet rookie year, just had that season where we look back and go, wow, that really launched something. Or is he a one-year winner? We had a nice discussion about him on Twitch yesterday. I'm sorry. So who were some of the other, any,
Starting point is 00:39:27 any other nominees that we wanted to get out there? Yeah. I mean, I just wrote up a piece for this as well. So I have a bunch I can list off that are just kind of fun to think about. Priest Holmes. We talked about, he kind of did it two years in a row.
Starting point is 00:39:39 He broke out in his first year, but he only had 10 touchdowns. And so we weren't really sure about him. And I remember, uh, in my league back then, because of kind of a weird story that we always pass down and tell, that he wasn't a first-round pick. He was like a second, third-round pick, I think,
Starting point is 00:39:53 even though he had 2,000 yards from scrimmage in his first year with the Chiefs. And then it was that second year that he almost had, you know, he went to, oh, not only can he do that again, but he's Superman now, because he scored 24 touchdowns in 14 games. Arian Foster, Tiki Barber is another one who kind of broke out a couple different times, but he fumbled 35 times over four seasons. And it really limited his ability to rack up touches. And then as a 29-year-old, he finally gets his fumbles in check and then at 30 he puts up what is still to this day currently the fourth most total yards in nfl history in a season more
Starting point is 00:40:32 than anything that daniel tomlinson ever did and several other great uh running back so he's a weird one that kind of just went to that next gear at at age 29 and age 30 michael turner you guys said antonio brown but victor cruz and miles austin are two fun ones two undrafted free agents at age 29 and age 30. Michael Turner, you guys said, Antonio Brown, but Victor Cruz and Miles Austin are two fun ones, two undrafted free agents at receiver. Oh, yeah, Victor Cruz, number one on my list, number two with Gronkowski, same year. And what I love, the Victor Cruz season, undrafted free agent,
Starting point is 00:41:01 2010 was technically his rookie season, but he basically didn't play. 2011, 1,500 yards, nine touchdowns. He had five touchdown catches of 68 or more yards, including a 99-yard touchdown catch. Pretty sure it was a top-five receiver. Out of nowhere. Third? Yep.
Starting point is 00:41:17 Wow. Wide receiver three. Except, Jamie, who called Victor Cruz on this podcast? You did. Oh, yeah. I haven't had a good call since 2011. Wide receiver three, and he only had two catches on four targets in the first two games
Starting point is 00:41:31 because he didn't even really make the team the year before. He didn't see a single target. And it was his second year. He breaks camp on the 53-iron roster. He was obviously a preseason star. I think we all remember that, wearing jersey number three. And then
Starting point is 00:41:45 in week three, he has his first big game and he doesn't look back and he goes on to be the water receiver three, even though he didn't really even get a shot until week three, week four. All right. Those are some breakouts there. Breakout seasons. Does anything strike you in five years? We're going to be talking about the 2019
Starting point is 00:42:01 season of this guy that really stands out as a breakout for a very productive fantasy stretch and hopefully lamar jackson yeah jackson and mahomes are two of the greatest quarterback breakouts of all time period i mean they're two of the four best quarterback seasons in this era that we're looking at and they both were qb 15 or later in drafts those years. Okay. I mentioned Chark. We talked about Parker as a one-year wonder.
Starting point is 00:42:34 More likely to be a one-year wonder or the start of a great stretch? Devante Parker. One-year wonder. One-year wonder. Okay. Darren Waller. More likely to be a one-year wonder or the start of a great stretch? Start.
Starting point is 00:42:45 One- you wonder. I'll say DJ Moore just had his breakout and is going to go on to amazing things. He was the wide receiver seven through 15 games and only three points behind the wide receiver four before he left week 16 in the first quarter. So his numbers look a little worse because when you look at points per game and you see that he played 15 games,
Starting point is 00:43:03 we're giving that week 16 too much weight because he only played six naps but he was he was an elite receiver i know you wanted to give me a hard time about having him my breakouts for this year so i will uh i can just i can just defend that now like i i don't necessarily disagree that he did definitely break out last year but he's going to have to get into the end zone on a regular basis to he finishes the year not just as a top 15 wide receiver in ppr but it's a top 10 receiver in both formats because he scores the touchdowns to go with his catches wait so time out i gotta i gotta i gotta he was the wide receiver seven through 15 games because right behind the line on a per game basis he was right behind the water stream before with only four touchdowns what was the regression what was the non-ppr okay but in ppr he was a top eight receiver when he got hurt in the second last game with only four touchdowns at 22 with
Starting point is 00:44:19 horrible quarterback play i think i think you're making i think you want to make the other argument that when those tvs come he's going to be a superstar that's exactly what i'm saying he wasn't the superstar last year he wasn't and we're talking about fantasy foot like he was a superstar as a player but it didn't show up in his fantasy production for the end of the year because i understand that he missed part of a game getting hurt but or maybe a game and a half getting hurt, but on a per-game basis last year, he didn't finish as a top 12 wide receiver in any format. I got to be more...
Starting point is 00:44:53 He was worse on a per-game basis. If you take that game out where he only played six snaps, he did. He doesn't do that. That's just... Every time I try to make that case... No one does that in retrospect. I do. If you look at this five years from now, we're not going to say,
Starting point is 00:45:08 if you take that quarter out from that 15th game, and I still don't think he would be because there's guys like Devontae Adams, Calvin Ridley, Marvin Jones that played fewer games and were only like 30 points behind him. I have a few more breakouts from guys that are currently playing. You have Kittle from 2018. Kelsey from
Starting point is 00:45:29 2017, essentially. You could say maybe 2016, I guess, was his first 1,000-yard season. Thielen from 2018. We'll see if he's able to sustain it over a couple years. Well, 2017, I guess. I'd say he already did. I think that's a good call. And one that you asked from 2019 that broke out that I think is sustainable is Mark Andrews.
Starting point is 00:45:47 I think he's going to be pretty elite for a few years, too. Yeah, that's a good one. And let's finish up fantasy football yesterday with the biggest outlier games of the era, 97 to 2019. Heath, what stands out to you, the biggest outlier games? Marva Jones. Oh, this past year, yeah. Well, two different times.
Starting point is 00:46:14 He did it back with the Bengals. That was even a crazier one because he wasn't even like a starter. He has two four-touchdown games. That's great. And he had nine touchdowns last year. I can't get over that four touchdown game because I never draft him.
Starting point is 00:46:29 I don't really want to. He's available in the eighth or ninth round, though. It's not like you have to spend a top 24 wide receiver pick on him. No, but eighth or ninth round? He's going to score probably 50 more fantasy points than Justin Jefferson this year.
Starting point is 00:46:47 Yeah, I don't know about that in PPR. He's going to get a lot more targets than Jefferson. Yeah, probably. So, outlier games. You got that Nick Foles game where you talked about him. You have the Jonas Gray game, right? The four touchdown crazy game for the Patriots. I'm looking at Chris's write-up.
Starting point is 00:47:16 He had the Wildcat game on here. Both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams had pretty productive games that game, and it really just came out of nowhere, right? Ronnie Brown threw a touchdown in that game, right? just came out of nowhere right ronnie brown is a pretty ronnie brown threw a touchdown that game right that's a five touchdown i was that's one of the games we're talking about on hq today so i was just reading uh espn did a great recap of it 10 years later in 2018 and just uh the comments from rodney harrison and teddy bruski and just how confused and lost that they were and how pissed off that they were. And Ronnie Brown saying he'd never played quarterback on any level before.
Starting point is 00:47:53 And they were talking about how he was left-handed and how he, you know, the minute that he threw the ball, because they thought they finally figured out the run, and then the minute they threw it, they were like, holy bleep, he's lefty. The best part about it, though, was the comments from the Dolphins guy saying that they couldn't do it against their defense in practice and so that they practiced it you know leaning up they were owing to it was coming off their 1 and 15 season and the dolphins deep the defenders were saying like when they saw that it was working against the patriots like how in the
Starting point is 00:48:18 hell is this high school gimmicky bleep working against bill belichick's defense it was so fun to read just to go back to. I remember Dave and I used to fly up to New York to do fantasy football today on Sundays. And Jason Horowitz was the host at the time. And so we would actually go watch games in the NFL Today green room. So we would watch games with Marino and Bill Cowher and Boomer Sison. It was just an unbelievable experience for several years. This particular day, for whatever reason,
Starting point is 00:48:50 Jason and I were in a different green room, and I remember we were watching this game going, what? What? What? It's just one of the more crazy experiences of our time to watch that unfold. And against that coach and that defense in particular,
Starting point is 00:49:06 just, just remarkable. Well, they crushed the Patriots that game and it sparked so much debate in football circles, right? I mean, every football fan,
Starting point is 00:49:18 Oh, is this sustainable? They're going to be able to keep doing it. This is a gimmick. How, you know, it was really, it was like,
Starting point is 00:49:24 once it got figured out, it got figured out. Yeah. But it was, it was really, it was like, once it got figured out, it got figured out. Yeah. But it was, it was fun. It was, you know, the,
Starting point is 00:49:28 the offset line with how they moved the lineman around, you know, the fact that the quarterback was still on the field and lined up about why, you know, I, you gotta say it, it, it may be the reason that guy like Taysom Hill has a job.
Starting point is 00:49:40 I mean, it absolutely impacted the NFL for several years. It, it, that it was remarkable. I mean, it absolutely impacted the NFL for several years. It was remarkable. I mean, one of the craziest kind of scheme things that we've ever seen, like you said. Okay. Any other nominees here?
Starting point is 00:49:57 I mean, the list that we're going to talk about on HQ today, you got Nick Foles' game from Week 9 in 2013 when he threw for seven touchdowns and 406 yards. Trubisky, 2018, Week 4 against Tampa Bay, threw for six touchdowns. Imagine that now with where he is. Those two guys competing against each other. The Will Fuller game last year. You remember that one? 14 catches, 217 yards, three touchdowns. And then a guy that's a one-year wonder that we kind of overlook, I think,
Starting point is 00:50:28 is Drew Bennett from the Titans, 2004. His game in week 14, so start of the fantasy playoffs against the Chiefs. Heath may remember this one. 12 catches, 233 yards, and three touchdowns. He was, like, I think he did it for three games so i was looking at this the other day but yeah his peak was just it was over in a flash but that game was wild and then i'm pulling it up 2004 he goes week 14 he does that and then he uh i guess week 13 just before that he also had had a three touchdown game just not nearly as many yards and in week 15 he backed it up with 160 and two touchdowns so he had a three game stretch where he goes over 120 yards in every game and catches eight tvs and probably never did that again in
Starting point is 00:51:14 his whole career sounds like uh brashad perryman run yeah yeah his stretch last year yeah someone yeah i wonder if that's a tyler hig run. I know Dave certainly would think no, but Higbee basically had... I think it was the best five-game stretch in tight end history. Yes. Pretty incredible run to finish the season. Big guns today, Ben. Dave's going to get mad. I had some emails.
Starting point is 00:51:43 Yeah, you know what? Let's read some emails here um let's go rapid fire from these questions from caleb fantasy football at cbsi.com could you touch on some players i'm considering drafting in a redraft ppr league heath i'll give you the first one alvin camara will he have a comeback season and return to top five or even top three running back status will atavius murray become next nothing, or will he have a role that frustrates Camara owners? I don't think he's going to frustrate Camara owners as long as Salvin Camara is healthy. There was, listen, his rookie year,
Starting point is 00:52:17 after that, I said, there's no way he's going to average that type of efficiency. He's going to regress. The following year, he did, but then he scored way more touchdowns than we should have expected. And then last year he scored far fewer touchdowns than we should have expected. So it's going to be somewhere in the middle,
Starting point is 00:52:32 and I do think that they will... I'm right now projecting him for more touches than he's ever had, so I don't think Latavius Murray is going to be a problem unless Kamara gets hurt. Jamie, Kenyon Drake, will he continue what he started last season, or will Chase Edmonds cut into his role? If he does cut in, how much will it affect Drake? Does the Hopkins trade help Drake by forcing the D to focus on D Hopkins? Anyway, your thoughts on Drake?
Starting point is 00:52:52 I think Drake's going to be awesome. I think he's a great pick in the middle of the second round. He's going to build up what he did last year. Ben, Calvin Ridley, will he have a breakout Chris Godwin-like season? Yes. That's literally the exact comp I've made several times this offseason, so yes. Okay, and that's it for Caleb.
Starting point is 00:53:16 He had five questions. I chose three. Sorry, Caleb. From Nick, in a dynasty league, would you view a quarterback-wide receiver connection any differently than you would in redraft? I haveon wentz my first pick is 1.7 i a lot of mock rookie drafts and rankings seem to seem to project that i'll be looking at jefferson rugs rager in that spot
Starting point is 00:53:34 unless one of the running backs falls then i could draft them but as the wentz owner should i prioritize rager over Jefferson and Ruggs? I wouldn't. I don't like this question at all. I like the question. At the seventh pick, I think you're going to get a better player than Rager. That's why. Or Jefferson, because there are five running backs that I would take before them, and I'd take Jerry, Judy, and CeeDee Lamb before them.
Starting point is 00:54:04 So you should just take whoever's left amongst the top five running backs, Judy and lamb. I would take rigor over rugs and Jefferson, regardless of who my quarterback is, because he's just a better prospect. And I wouldn't take him at one Oh seven. Just like rigor is a better prospect than rugs. Yes.
Starting point is 00:54:22 I do not think everybody shares that opinion. No, I don't think there's a better prospect than rugs yes i do not think everybody shares that opinion no i know i think there's a better prospect than rugs but rager's in a better situation than rugs so i think i mean we we said this so many times if the eagles receiving core is decimated with jeffrey and jackson being hurt again rager's going to be a star has a a chance to be, at least. Has a chance to be, yeah. But those guys, if they're healthy, it's going to make things frustrating. And then you just don't know what's going to happen in 2021. Here's a question from Sean. I have the sixth pick in my rookie drafts.
Starting point is 00:54:56 I think the top three running backs. Wait, wait, wait. Before we get there, explain your decision in the Superflex draft that we did yesterday that you passed on Jefferson to take rugs. Who, me? Yeah, you. It's a dynasty league. Do you like Jefferson better?
Starting point is 00:55:10 Just to clarify, you like Jefferson better this year, Ruggs better long-term? Yeah. Okay. Fair. Okay. Jeez, I draft Justin Jefferson in a mock draft. Well, you may seem like he's the best prospect ever. No, I think he's in the best situation in 2020.
Starting point is 00:55:26 That's all. I really think you, like, that's the thing I think that everyone is really confused about. Why? Who's in a better situation? I think, I'll accept. I don't think, unless the Vikings defense is just really bad, I don't think it's a very good situation because there's not enough targets to go around for two receivers. Thielen was hurt last year, and Diggs couldn't even get 100 targets in that offense.
Starting point is 00:55:50 Why only focus on last year and the targets? There have been times when they've been very pass-heavy. Because they fired the guy that was doing that. I do think they're... But you know what? I do think their defense will be better. And it will be worse. I do think their defense will be better. And it will be worse.
Starting point is 00:56:06 I do think their defense will be worse. And I think he gets 90 targets. Oh, agreed. Yeah, but that 90 targets is awful. Not for a guy that I'm taking with the last pick of the eighth round. And quite honestly, we said it after the draft. It just didn't really work out that well for these rookie wide receivers. You know? They don't walk into great situations. It just didn't really work out that well for these rookie wide receivers. You know?
Starting point is 00:56:26 They don't walk into great situations. It doesn't look like anyway. And obviously, please, I reserve the right to change my mind based on what we see in camp. You just love Kirk Cousins. We get it. You love Adam Thielen.
Starting point is 00:56:35 You love Justin Jefferson. You think Kirk Cousins is the best quarterback ever. We get it. From Sean. Okay. Do I take the best wide receiver available with the sixth pick or Cam Akers?
Starting point is 00:56:49 I'd go Lamb over Akers. I'd go Judy and Lamb over Akers. I think that's the best way to go. Wide receivers have obviously a longer shelf life than running backs. Those two guys project to be superstars. The one caveat would be is if you are
Starting point is 00:57:04 in desperate need of running back help, that is a very good player to get. Yep. Matt from Nashville. Hey, Steve, Eddie, Frank, and Javon. Titans. McNair, George, Wycheck, and Kirst. Wycheck.
Starting point is 00:57:17 Oh, good. Nice, nice. I covered Javon Kirst in college. I thought he was going to be an absolute monster. He was for a little bit, wasn't he? His rookie year was amazing. Most sacks ever for a rookie. Oh.
Starting point is 00:57:29 All right, 12-team half PPR. Austin Eckler in the 7th or Aaron Jones in the 12th? 13th, sorry. Aaron Jones in the 13th or Eckler in the 7th? Jones. Jones. As much as I'm concerned about Jones, the value is too good. And from Michael, Mark Andrews and Travis Kelsey,
Starting point is 00:57:47 I have both of them in a 12-team, 3-receiver, standard-scoring Dynasty League. I was offered pick 1.11 for one of these tight ends. It's not enough, but what would be a reasonable counter for Andrews or Kelsey? 1.11 and a good running back or Kelsey? I'm 1-11 and a good running back or receiver. And I'd probably trade Kelsey. Wait, did you just say that don't even start a tight end? I didn't say that,
Starting point is 00:58:18 but he does not actually list tight ends in the yeah, in the email. I don't I'm going gonna assume that's an oversight yeah me too yeah so he asked specifically how about 111 and a 2020 uh first round pick in the rookie draft 2021 2021 sorry no i would take that for kelsey personally and just move on with andrews and i like to get younger in dynasty at all times, basically. But if you're getting – okay, so again, assign a player to it. So 111 is Jefferson, Rager, Ruggs.
Starting point is 00:58:55 I mean, drafts we've seen, maybe it's Mims or Chenault or whatever your guy is at the end of the first round. Maybe it's Vaughn. Is that really enough for Kelsey Chelsea plus maybe a pick at 11 again next year because I'm assuming this guy's obviously good yeah I I'm probably I'm just it's gonna take a starter for me to do that like I think if you're getting I would almost say you got to get 111 and a very good like if if I'm the guy that's picking 111 and i don't have a good tight end i probably have a very loaded running back or wide receiver core so you could probably get something
Starting point is 00:59:32 of a starting caliber player in return maybe similar and an aging player like how kelsey is I was trying to look to see. Man, I've got a pretty big difference between those. Andrews and Kelsey? No. Kelsey and my 11th best rookie. Yeah, I think there should be a huge difference. I would almost say you want to get 111 this year, first round pick next year,
Starting point is 01:00:07 player, and maybe even a second round pick this year. That's what Kelsey's worth to me. Okay. We are done. Thank you very much for tuning in to Fantasy Football Today slash Yesterday. It was a lot of fun.
Starting point is 01:00:21 And we'll talk to you again. We have another episode scheduled for Wednesday night, which will air on Thursday, where I get to argue with Jamie and everyone in the world about whether or not Le'Veon Bell in 2018 was actually a bust. What a dumb thing. Are we going to do this again?
Starting point is 01:00:39 Yes, we are going to do this again. So thanks for listening, everybody. For Jamie, Heath, Ben Schrager, Dave, Al Melchior, Eric Mack, let's see,
Starting point is 01:00:52 who else? Oh, Ben Grinch. Ben Grinch, yes, him too. Thanks so much. You left out Nando. Oh,
Starting point is 01:00:58 Nando, of course. Nando. We'll talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football. Happy birthday, Ben Schrager. So we'll talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football. Happy birthday, Shrek.

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