Fantasy Football Today - FFYesterday: Biggest Busts (1997-2019)! Also: Backup QB Strategy (05/14 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: May 14, 2020

Is 2018 Le'Veon Bell the biggest bust of the last 23 years? Many would say yes, but Adam of course would say no. Find out why! Then we pivot to news items we may or may not care about (8:25) and 2020 draft strategy. What do we look for in a backup QB (11:00)? What is the incentive to draft a backup QB late even if you have a stud as your starter? ... We are on to the biggest busts since 1997 (20:24)! Eddie Lacy and Trent Richardson were huge disappointments as first round Fantasy picks, but who else made the cut? Some of the best WRs of all-time are on the list! ... While we're on the subject of busts, who could be a bust in 2020 (28:02)? We suggest a few names that Fantasy managers might want to think twice about on draft day ... Email us at [e-mail] and tweet us with #AskFFT 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow the new FFT Twitch channel: https://www.twitch.tv/FFToday Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @YardsPerGretch, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is Fantasy Football Yesterday from the Sports Division of Columbia Broadcasting System. Phone us at Klondike 5-1212. It's time to dominate your fantasy league, if you have a time machine. Now, here's some swell combination of mr hazer mr richard mr eisenberg mr cummings and mr gregg levy on bell you drafted him with a top five pick a couple years ago he did not play a game he was like nope not play. Don't feel like it. Is he the biggest bust of the last 23 seasons, 1997 to 2019? Of course he is not. It's a weak answer.

A weak answer, ladies and gentlemen. We'll tell you who the biggest busts of this era are today on Fantasy Football Yesterday. Adam, Dave, Jamie Heath here. Jamie, I know you disagree. You chose Le'Veon Bell as your biggest bust. It's not even close. It is not even close. He's the biggest bust in the history of fantasy football.

Why him and not like Jordy Nelson when he tore his ACL? Because that was out of anybody's control but Le'Veon Bell's, but Jordy Nelson's. Yeah, well, if you want to take the easy levy on levy on levy on said he was going to play levy on kept hinting at coming back he went back to pittsburgh during the season and we thought he's going to come back to play all the reports were saying oh he's going to play by this week by this week by this week he bleeped us so bleep him he's the biggest bleep and bust of all time. Okay. Heath, do you agree?

Is that the right answer? Is it Le'Veon Bell? I can't believe that we spent like 15 minutes on this on Twitch last night, and now you still don't get it. It's obvious he is the biggest. I tried very hard to not even consider guys who got hurt because I don't want to call somebody a bust when they suffered an injury that hurt and probably cost them long-term career earnings. That's not cool.

So if you take out all the guys that got hurt, the Heath rules, I think he's clearly, and I think Antonio Brown's right behind him. I didn't even bother putting him as my top bust because I figured other people would. You're smart. There's no question about it because you drafted him. He took up a spot on your team. I didn't even bother putting him as my top bus. Cause I figured other people would. You're smart. There's no question about it because you drafted him. He took up a spot on your team. He got you zero fancy points. You could have drafted Heath and he would have given you the same amount of fantasy points.

I would have given him more, but, but you didn't have to start him. When is it? He was wasting a spot on your roster, not the whole year, but it isn't isn't almost the whole year isn't a better bust someone that you actually played and just straight up stunk

someone that cost you because j if james connor didn't have such a great year than maybe but a lot of bell owners had james connor so they didn't really lose that much they lost the roster spot are you playing devil's advocate or is this really? No, Heath's rules are no injured players. Which I agree. I extended Heath's rules to no injured players, no suspensions, no Le'Veon Bell situations. I only pick players who were drafted in the first round and were really, really bad. Would you rather draft a player who was really, really bad and gave you at least one fantasy point or a player that you drafted in the first round and gave you zero fantasy points? Oh, the player in the first round because

I didn't start him. You're talking about... You keep saying... First off, there's never been a player to my knowledge that has gone... that you drafted in the first round that played the entire season and gave you terrible fantasy points week in, week out. Week in and week out.

Right. I do see that Adam only turned in two compared to some people turning in three. I don't think both of his qualify. Okay, my two are Trent Richardson, 2013. He was the eighth pick. He played 16 games. He was RB 32 in PPR. He averaged three yards per carry.

Eddie Lacy, fourth pick in 2015 in ADP. Played 15 games, finished just like Richardson, RB32 in PPR. Those guys were less valuable than Le'Veon Bell because they were in your lineup certainly for more weeks. I mean, I'm sure at some point people were like, Trent Richardson stinks, Eddie Lacy stinks, I'm not starting him. But it had to be at least half the season. Whereas you never had to start Le'Veon Bell,

and hopefully you started James Conner and you got a top 10 running back yeah i mean that's the way that the only way that that worked out for you is that when you drafted levy on you you handcuffed him to james connor whether you thought that levy on was going to hold out or not and then you still ended up with a good pick but it doesn't have to rather just drafted somebody else in round one and taking james connor in round 12 it doesn't even have to be james connor it could be the scenario you just said dave it could be somebody else that round one and taking James Conner in round 12. It doesn't even have to be James Conner. It could be the scenario you just said, Dave. It could be somebody else that you drafted that was very good that year too. So, you know, if you knew that Le'Veon, okay, let's say he was going to play eight games.

And maybe you still want the Ezekiel Elliott situation where, you know, I know some of us were saying draft him. Some were saying avoid him because of the fear of the suspension the year that he missed six games. And so at least you had some semblance of an idea he was going to play and then maybe miss. This was, we kept getting, up until the start of the season, he's going to be there. It really wasn't until if you were drafting

the week of the season that he started to really fall. Adam, what was his ADP that year? Okay, I'll look it up. What year was it, 2018? Since you found a new toy. Yeah, give me a moment. I'll look it up.

Keep talking while I look it up. I think it's just one of those situations where I'd rather have the ability to play somebody with the hope that this was going to be the week that they gave you something, because chances are there were some of those weeks, than not having that guy available at all. Not because of injury, but because he just didn't show up. All right, 2018 in PPR.

I don't know at what point. This says September 1st through September 4th. At that point, Le'Veon Bell was going 3rd overall. See? Yeah, so Eddie Lacy was going 4th overall. But I just think that the fact that you never had to start Le'Veon Bell, he never actually hurt your week.

Okay, but the same thing was... Let's see how good you are at fantasy when everyone else in your league has a first-round pick but you. How many best ball leagues did he kill people? Yeah, but what's the difference between having Le'Veon Bell and having just a terrible player? The difference is at least you could play

someone else who's going to be better than Eddie Lacy and Trent Richardson were. But you could play somebody better than Eddie Lacy and Trent Richardson too. But you wouldn't have done that right out of the gate. You obviously would have stuck with them for a while. In Eddie Lacy's defense, right out of the gate, he had 99 total yards and a touchdown week one great but he still he just got me got me a w then you probably you

probably stuck with him too long that week that year he had he had 93 yards in week four then he had a great run week nine a hundred yards week 10 105 week Week 12, 124. RB 32. He had a great stretch. What number was Levy on that year? You mean James Conner? No, not the guy who played for the Steelers. The guy who didn't play for the Steelers. Who was drafted on the last week of the season based on your favorite ADP.

Third overall. I need to correct something. This Eddie Lacy week 14. first week of the fantasy playoffs, 124 yards, 148 total yards, and a touchdown. Week 16, fantasy championship, 88 total yards and a touchdown. 13%! 13%! Two to three weeks of the fantasy playoffs.

13% of the teams that drafted Eddie Lacy made the playoffs, made the fantasy playoffs. 13%. And a lot of people that drafted Le'Veon Bell made the playoffs. How about this? Trent Richardson had at least nine PPR points each of his first four games of 2013. Oh, nine PPR points.

Wow. By the way, do you really think that 13% stat was real? I have no idea how many. You say things every show that aren't real, right, Jamie? And in real life, too. He does tend to lie about the things that he says he's going to do. He doesn't do. Another lie of mine exposed in just a little bit.

Let's talk about a few news and notes, and we're going to call this segment, Do You Care? I'm going to tell you three quasi-headlines you tell me, do you care? Headline number one, T.Y. Hilton says he's going to dominate the league this year. I don't care. I mean, it's better than him saying he's going to suck. It is better than that, yeah.

Okay, number two, Anthony Miller says 2020 will be his best year yet. Don't care. I agree. I would hope so. Talk is cheap, baby. And number three. Ryan Tannehill and Johnnie Smith are working out together in South Florida. I care more about that than I do the other two.

I care least about that than I do the other two. Really? Downgrade AJ Brown. Oh, Ben's not on this podcast. I care more about that than I do the other two. I care least about that than I do the other two. Really? Downgrade. Downgrade. AJ Brown. Oh, Ben's not on this podcast.

Wait, Jamie, why do you care less about that? Did not start running routes. Sorry. I'm curious. You don't like hearing about a quarterback in a tight end, starting to work out together. I would anticipate that anybody within region of each other are going to be

throwing with each other or having some sort of communication. So it doesn't surprise me in the least. But that matters less to you than a player saying he's going to have his best year ever? Well, I'm excited about Anthony Miller, so I'm happy to hear him that he's confident in himself. And it was a good story that they wrote about him. And T.Y. Hilton, I think the fact that he's excited about Philip Rivers is good to know, too. I mean, they're all pretty low on the care scale. Oh, yeah.

I think it's kind of cool that Tannehill and Johnny Smith are working out together. I wonder if this particular year that would matter more. Just because we don't know when everybody's going to be able to work out together. Right. Well, they played together last year. They did, yeah. They've been introduced. If they went to the movies together,

pick their movie theater snacks. What are you getting for Ryan Tannehill? What are you getting for Jon Snow? Are you trying to depress people? Nobody goes to the movies now. What's wrong with you? All right, in four months, the new Jesse Eisenberg flick is out. They're going together. They're going to get snacks. Quarantine land.

What are they going to get? Pick their snacks. Popcorn for Tannehill. Plain popcorn for Tannehill. Because all the other candy will be good next year. Popcorn definitely won't. Jeez. Okay.

Jonu Smith. Peanut M&M's for Jonu. Oh, that's a brilliant call. He must be a smart guy. Peanut M&M's are right up there at the top. They are on the candy rush more. And then Tannehill's going to ask for some of the peanut M&M's so he can mix it with his popcorn. Interesting.

That'd be an interesting mix. Yeah, that's Tannehill. Today's big topic is about one of the lies I've told. I told this on Twitch, right? Last night? That was the first lie. That was the first lie. The first lie I told last night on Twitch,

I was saying how I drafted as my number two quarterback. I drafted... Wouldn't it be two nights ago? Yes. Right. Well, it's Wednesday night currently, but you're hearing this on Thursday, so good call.

You're live again. On Tuesday, on Tuesday, I said I drafted Daniel Jones over Aaron Rodgers with a late round pick when in fact I drafted Baker Mayfield over Aaron Rodgers with a late round pick because I already had... It was Mahomes, right? I had Mahomes.

Are you sure? No. What sport were you drafting? So as my second quarterback, I went further down in the rankings because I thought those guys had more upside than Aaron Rodgers. So the big topic today is what do you look for when you draft your number two quarterback? And will you stray from your rankings if you're looking, say, for upside? Yes.

I agree with what you did. Just not how I said it because I said the wrong people. Yeah, no, I think your what you did. Just not how I said it, because I said the wrong people. Yeah, no, I think your theory is right. You want to take a guy that has the potential to really hit it out of the park, as opposed to a guy that's going to be safer when you already have a guy that should be your starter week in, week out. Now, the overall theory would be don't take a second quarterback, if that's the case, because I think you're wasting a pick.

But if you are going to take a second quarterback if that's the case because i think you're wasting a pick but if you are going to take a second quarterback in that vein you take the guy that has the certainly the higher ceiling i usually look for gardner minshu why as my second quarterback because nobody else drafts him so i know they'll'll be there. And he was a low-end number one last year. I expect him to be maybe just a little bit better this year. Borderline number one, I should say, not low-end. Borderline number one. And I think it helps to look for a quarterback that's got some rushing potential. We've seen that from Lamar Jackson last year and Josh Allen the last two years,

that those guys aren't drafted early on, and they give you something on top of what they can do through the air. And I think it helps if you've got a quarterback that's got a good schedule in front of them. I perked up for Roethlisberger and Phillip Rivers because of the early season schedules. I think they're my top 12. For the running quarterbacks, is there one of those guys that you could find late that's a 500 or more yard rush i think daniel jones could get there minshu like if you divide 500 by 16 what do you get could he end up with 500 yards by the end of the year i think it's possible

that he gets close to that it's like 35 yards a game right he's you're forgetting one though who tyrod yeah sure i mean he has all the things we're talking about rushing right rushing upside fantastic schedule um i don't know that he's going to keep the job but i don't think he's like i'm warming to him sure because you can use him as a early season type of quarterback and so one of the things I struggle with when I do my rankings is do I rank quarterbacks based on rest of season expectations or full season expectations, or do I rank them based on the order I would take them? Because I would definitely take Tyrod ahead of somebody like Kirk Cousins.

Kirk Cousins, you know, he's, he's blah, but Tyrod can get me off to a hot start. And then I just find another quarterback when he gets benched for Justin Herbert, whenever that is. I mean, that's the struggle with doing rankings in May,

is we can find out by the time they break camp that it's Herbert's job to lose, and Taylor just has to keep Herbert sitting on the bench because he's that much better, and the Chargers feel like he gives them a better chance to win now. How much are you going to ridicule me when I draft three quarterbacks in a one quarterback league? We've seen how many rounds is your draft? 15 or 16. Dave, what if it was 14 rounds and it was only 10 teams? I just don't understand why.

Well, I think the late round quarterbacks are still really good players. rounds and it was only 10 teams. I just don't understand why. Well, I think the late round quarterbacks are still really good players in our leagues. If you're in a league that doesn't draft a lot of quarterbacks like many of our leagues and some of you are. I think that those, look, the last two years the number one quarterback has been a late round pick.

Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson and they've basically been the most valuable players in fantasy or at least on the very, very short list list i think you have a better chance of finding that type of player at the quarterback position compared to the guys that you're going to draft late at other positions most of the guys you're going to draft late at other positions are going to be bad and off your team soon now i'm just looking back at a draft we did last year fantasy football today three receivers ppr some really good late-round picks. Beginning in round 12 out of 16, so the last five rounds,

two of them are going to be defensive kickers. Of the last three picks that most owners were making, you have Austin Hooper in there. You've got DK Metcalf. You've got non-quarterbacks, non-quarterbacks. Deebo Samuel, Darren Waller, Mark Andrews. I would say that tight end and quarterback, though, DJ Chark was in there.

There were some really good ones. There were some really bad ones, too. Trey Quinn, CJ Anderson, Rykel Armstead, Chris Thompson, Adam Humphries, Eric Ebron. But I think quarterback and tight end at that range in the draft have the best chance of being elite at their position. And I got no problem taking three of them and hoping that in week one or week two, I just nailed my breakout. And oh my gosh,

I just got Patrick Mahomes. I just got Lamar Jackson. And I'm going to ride those guys the rest of the year. Yeah, I just wrote an article about this for our magazine. I think the thing that you hit on there is interesting in the fact of if you're taking one of these breakout quarterbacks, is it pairing them with a stud guy coming into the draft? Mahomes, Jackson, whoever you want to throw up there, Dak, Russell Wilson, or is it pairing them with maybe Kyler who could break out but could falter? You know, maybe Tom Brady, who might not live up to expectations in Tampa.

You know, one of those type of players, Drew Brees, who could struggle at his age. Wentz, who gets hurt all the time. Wentz, who gets hurt all the time. Great one. I think that's part of it. The other side of it is, Adam, you just listed several great breakout players. Metcalf, DJ Chark, some other guys that tight ends clearly. And I know that's part of your argument.

But you may have missed out on one of those guys because you took a chance on the third quarterback or even the second quarterback. Absolutely. Always a negative to it as well. I think, yeah, I'm going to stick with that whole philosophy of quarterback and tight end. Having the best chance in that range. Remember, we had a great rookie wide receiver draft class last year. It was unusual. Dave, what did you write about?

Just how deep quarterbacks and tight ends are and where quarterback studs have been found. I mean, if you're trying to find the next Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes, then you shouldn't take a quarterback for the first eight rounds of your fantasy draft. Then you'll take two to close your draft out. You could do the exact same thing at tight end. I'd be more inclined to spend a pick on a tight end early if I got a good value on Ertz in round five, which I've had a couple of times in our drafts, or if Kittle goes into round three, I'm not going to run away from that. But if I can get two quarterbacks and two tight ends and spend all the rest of my picks through the first eight rounds on running backs and receivers, I'm going to have a competitive team.

I don't know if it's going to be an amazing team, but I'll have multiple chances at finding this year's Lamar Jackson, this year's Darren Waller, this year's lamar jackson this year's darren waller this year's mark andrews this year's patrick mahomes you know the list goes on this year's austin hooper because a couple years ago hooper was a great late round pick yeah okay cool that's maximizing value late in the draft and what what happens if you miss okay let's say you take tyra taylor and gardner minchu and both of them struggle to break out. Well, on the waiver wire, there's going to be somebody. Someone's going to be there for you. Same thing at tight end.

It won't be as great as quarterback, but someone will be there for you. Replacement value for quarterback and tight end isn't really that much different than the low-end type of options that you might draft late that fizzle out. And as good as Metcalf and Debo were last year, they were like wide receiver 30. You know, they weren't league winners. And what players were taken late that did fizzle out amongst DK and Debo?

Oh, gosh. Right, so for every one of those guys, there's probably like six or seven receivers that just absolutely sucked. Oh, absolutely. Absolutely. Heath, any final thoughts or shall we move on? I think we should move on. All right, let's do it.

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for you to be great in fantasy. It is now on Pluto TV. You can check it out in the sports section on channel 459. Fantasy football yesterday. Echo effect. The biggest busts of 97 through 2019.

We had our Le'Veon Bell discussion. What are some other options here for the biggest busts? Who are some other names you'd like to nominate? Larry Fitzgerald 2012. That's a good one. When I originally saw that on your list Jamie I was like how bad was Larry Fitzgerald ever

And then it turned out that There was a really good reason Why he had a terrible year in 2012 Yeah that was the quarterback Quartet of John Skeleton, Kevin Cobb Ryan Lindley and Brian Hoyer So he went from 1411 yards, 8 touchdowns in 2011 to 71 catches,

798 yards and four touchdowns in 2012. It was a absolute total disaster for Eli Fitzgerald. And as we talked about on Twitch, it was nice to see him rebound when Bruce Arians got there and Carson Palmer and what Fitzgerald was able to sort of resurrect himself to being a bounce back as well. You want to hear something funny about this? According to fantasy football calculator, 2012 PPR average draft position,

Larry Fitzgerald was the third wide receiver picked. Who do you think, where do you think he went as the third wide receiver off the board? Second round, late second. Yeah. Mid-second. Very good. Ninth pick of. Second round. Late second. Yeah, mid-second I was going to say. Very good. Ninth pick of the second round.

Third wide receiver off the board. Ninth pick of the second round. Times they are a-changing. All right, so Larry Fitzgerald. Probably went ahead of him, right? Well, let's take a look. In 2012? Well, maybe two.

Gronk and Graham could have could have grok did graham did not here's your adp wow three quarterbacks arian foster ray rice aaron rogers calvin johnson leshawn mccoy tom brady mcfadden chris johnson forte dem, DeMarco Murray, Drew Brees. That's round one. Julio Jones, MJD, Jamal Charles, Rob Gronkowski, Fred Jackson, Ryan Matthews, Larry Fitzgerald. And that was the Peterson comeback here. Well, interesting.

Adrian Peterson. I love this ADP tool can't find it wait so what happened in 2012 with him he was coming out of the ACL he didn't get drafted that can't be oh he got drafted but it was probably mid-rampant not showing up in the old average draft position

okay who else Dave who were some of your biggest busts well Trent Richardson made my list because sky high expectations I remember loving trent richardson coming into the 2013 season and uh first two games really didn't do a lot for the browns got traded to the colts for a first round pick and uh fizzled out soon thereafter. He was out of the league by 2014. Yeah, he was so bad.

He was so bad. And I even hung on to Richardson in my heart anyway for another year when he went to the Colts. I was like, you know what? They're going to give him an opportunity. Maybe he's good. He was not good. He averaged 2.9 yards per carry with the Colts. And then just to be sure that he sucked,

when he came back to the Birmingham iron of the AAF, his rushing average still sucked, but he did score 12 touchdowns in eight games. Heath, any of your biggest busts? Yeah, you've already poo-pooed two of them. Le'Veon Bell in 2018 and antonio brown in 2019 even though antonio brown played football yeah he had a game um but my other one like there's no debating it should be on the mount rushmore of busts 2010 randy moss um in two His first three years in New England,

he had double-digit touchdowns every year. He averaged about 1,200 yards per season. He was so bad in the first month of the season that they traded him, and then he got cut and signed by a different team. He played 16 games for the Patriots, Vikings, and Titans. Only earned 63 targets. Only caught 28 of them for 393 yards and five touchdowns.

I don't know what his 2010 ADP was, but I don't believe he was a top 50 wide receiver. I think he was close to it. I went back and looked at what I wrote about some of these guys back when we were talking about him, so 2010 in the case of Moss, and I think we had him as like a round four or five. Oh, no, no.

Did somebody say ADP? What was it? Eighth overall wide receiver two in 2010. You know what? My bad. I'm thinking of his year in Oakland, his first two in 2010. You know what? My bad. I'm thinking of his year in Oakland. His first year in Oakland. He had been a top two receiver two of the past

three seasons and top ten all three years. 2010, he played 16 games and finished as the number 67 wide receiver. Tony Moyeke had more yards than Randy Moss. 67th.

In the following year, Wes Walker had his best season ever. 2011. Jamie, did Heath put Frank Gore in 2018 or 2019 on his bus list or anything like that? Can we get Frank Gore on any bus list? He's always been undervalued. You don't put a president on the bus list.

I guess not. Although, yeah, Randy Moss could have been on don't put a president on the bus list. I guess not. I guess not. Although, yeah, Brady Moss could have been on both, the bust more and the rush more. All right. Any other things? Because we also want to spin it forward and see the 2020 bus, early predictions of 2020 bus.

We can go to that, unless there are more names you need to throw out there. I think Doug Martin. Which time? Yeah. But for him, in 2013, it was injury. But he was the third pick of the draft. He only played six games. He time? Yeah. But, you know, for him in 2013, it was injury. But he was the third pick of the draft. He only played six games. He scored one touchdown.

CJ Spiller was the sixth pick in 2013. He played 15 games. He finished his RB 27. So he was almost as bad as Richardson and Lacey. CJ Anderson, too. 11th overall pick in 2015. Played 15 games. Finished his RB 31 in PPR. DeAndre Hopkins, too. 11th overall pick in 2015. Played 15 games. Finished his RB 31 in PPR.

DeAndre Hopkins, 2016. Yeah. Osweiler. How about Zach Stacey? Yep. Zach Stacey. Jeff Fisher thought he had his new workhorse running back. And not even close.

He had to use Trey Mason, I believe that's who it was, to carry out the year. Yep. Alan Robinson, 2016. Yeah. Funny the range of Rams running backs for fantasy, right? Because they had some of the absolute best. They had the most of the guys that we talked about in this era,

97 to 2019, the most of the guys drafted in the Ultimate Fantasy draft. It was Fox best year 2000, Gurley's best year 2017, and Steven Jackson's best year 2006. You know, we got a good question about why Sean Alexander didn't end up on the Rushmore.

I don't know that we've talked about him at all this week, really. We did. He was drafted. 2005 season was his best. But I think to your Peterson argument, he didn't catch a lot of passes. So PPR versus non-PPR where Heath was confused about what we were doing.

But probably non-PPR, his stats would have registered a little bit higher. Yeah, probably. All right, let's talk about 2020 busts. Who are some guys that you think we're going to be talking about as busts at the end of guys that you think we're going to be talking about as busts,

uh, at the end of 2020? It's probably very similar to the, uh, the one year wonders that we threw out on Twitch and the Wednesday morning show, I think. Um,

but I mean, for me, it's, uh, you know, the two big names would probably be Derek Henry and Aaron Jones at running back. And then just based on ADP, Lamar Jackson. He's the one that I think if he struggles, for whatever reason, similar to Patrick Mahomes,

you're going to regret probably drafting him with a first-round pick. But I think those two running backs, for how good they were last year, I think they come down. Henry and Jones for me. I think, Heath, you disagree with the Henry selection. Well, I mean, it depends. I think it's all for me,

at least it's all about injury with Derek Henry. They sure. If, if he gets hurt and misses a quarter of the season, then he will probably be a bus. But if he plays 16, 15 games, um,

I don't have much concern about him. I just think he's an incredibly different athlete. When Sean Alexander and Larry Johnson both had their mega carry seasons, they both suffered the same injury. They both had major foot fractures that just completely derailed their entire careers. So that could be the injury that happens to derrick henry i mean it would it's curtains but day something like that jamie and i i think disagreed on this last week

do you view henry as more of an injury risk because of that workload than dalvin cook no but it's it i feel like it's a slightly you mean like compared to cook and all the work that he had no i mean compared to cook is missing 19 just in general first three years the one reason why i think derrick henry can overcome it is because i just think that he's a different type of runner than alexander and larry johnson that he's just too he's Larry Johnson was a big dude. I know it, but I don't think he was quite like Derrick Henry. And Sean Alexander, I felt like he was more of a slasher than Derrick Henry. And Henry, listen, he's opened up to injuries. Obviously, he's playing the position that gets beat up the most. He takes on plenty of contact. And I think the Titans are going to

want to try and preserve him a little bit more too. They can't just, well, maybe they can throw him to the wolves since he's playing just on a franchise tag. But if they're really trying to ride him and keep him fresh all year, they'd be smart to use someone like Darrington Evans a little bit more in their offense. There's a lot to not like about Henry. But the thing that I love about him is that he just seems to be an unstoppable beast when he's on the field.

The thing I think is interesting for you, Heath, is that you're expecting Tannehill to regress significantly, right? Yeah, from his efficiency, for sure. Yes. So wouldn't the offense as a whole struggle if the quarterback is going to be less efficient and he has a down season to a certain extent? I think it could. It didn't really bother Derrick Henry when they finally let him loose in 2018. The quarterback play didn't really matter that much because they weren't throwing very often. Sure. I mean, I'm not saying you're wrong, but I just think it's interesting that you keep pooh-poohing Ryan Tandem, which I understand and I get it. But, you know, like scoring chances could be down. It's not like he's going to fall back on his passing game to help him.

We are talking about a guy that had a career high in reception last year at 18. He could be better. He could get to 30, 35, and he's finding a way to be productive in that way. And we're editing our magazine right now, and our bus story is in, and the first line that I wrote about Derrick Henry is this is the one that's going to make me look stupid. I totally get it. If he's healthy and play 16 games, he should be an absolute star.

There's just so much data that tells us that these running backs, you know, football outsiders with what they did in 2004 with the curse of 370. Most of it is the numbers in the regular season. But the Titans have experienced this once before as well. They had a running back that had a lot of work that was very productive in the year 2000. It was Eddie George. And he came back the next year. He played 16 games.

He just wasn't as good. He had more wear and tear on his body. He had more production over the course of his career at that point. But, you know, Henry's a bigger dude. We already saw it last year. You know, he had to miss a game because of a hamstring injury.

Those things could be a problem too. He may miss four or five games and his points per game could be awesome, but his total production could be a little bit lower than where you're drafting him. It's really more an ADP conversation, I think, than a production standpoint. He terrifies me in the first round of any format, and I tend to avoid players like that. Boy, how many one-yard touchdown runs did he have? One, two, three, four, five, six, plus a three-yarder.

I mean, it's seven from three yards out or closer, six from one yard away. Things just really fell into place for him. Well, now John is getting all those because they're closer. In the regular season, he only had 18 more touches than Dalvin Cook, but Cook played two playoff games, had, let's see, 46 touches. Derrick Henry had 88. So, you know, something like 65 more touches, I guess,

for Derrick Henry throughout the year than Dalvin Cook when you include the playoffs. You see teams like the Titans, I don't want to say every year, but this feels like the Jaguars run in 2017. Oh, 100%, man. I'm selling the Titans. Things just clicked. Tannehill got hot. Henry was amazing. Defense played well. And then you have to start paying guys.

So you've got to pay Tannehill and give him probably more money than he deserves. And I say that in the vein of just him stacking up compared to the other quarterbacks. And Henry getting the franchise tag, we'll see if they're going to extend him at some point. And who the other quarterbacks and Henry getting the franchise tag. We'll see if they're going to extend him at some point. And who knows? Maybe he's frustrated with the franchise tag and we'll see if that has an impact as well. I'm buying a lot of stock in Darrington Evans. That's a player that I'm going to take in almost every draft.

I may cut him after the first four weeks, but I'm going to take a flyer on him, especially the Israeli draft. They also lost their right tackle, Jack Conklin. But look, the NFL is the NFL. Half the league, half the playoff teams missed the playoffs the next year. I don't know exactly what the stat is,

but it's around that. Titans, to me, they feel like a team that's not going to be as good. Who thinks the Titans are making the playoffs this year? Not me. I'm probably thinking against it at this point. I haven't really thought long and hard, though. 35, 40%?

I think Indianapolis is better, too. They're expanding the playoffs, though, right? Not this year. Not this year? Okay. Baseball is my apologies. You sure? I thought the playoffs were this year,

and the extra week was... Yeah, I think it's this year. Okay. Yeah, that might change things. But, you know, they'll be they'll be I think fringe wild card team alright so we do talk a lot about Aaron Jones if you remove the four games that Jamal Williams left with an injury

or missed altogether he averaged 13 carries per game in 12 games with Jamal Williams healthy 13 carries per game you take that guy in the first round he gets 13 carries per game you're screwed you take him in the second round I he gets 13 carries per game. You're screwed. You take him in the second round, I don't know. When should Aaron

Jones go? Second or third? Third at the earliest for me. I'm okay at the end of the second. I think the more interesting stats are his receiving numbers. You said this time and again. He had 49 catches for 474 yards for the season.

22 of those came in the four games that Devontae Adams missed. 281 yards came in the four games Devontae Adams missed. And all three of his receiving touchdowns came in the four games that Devontae Adams missed. I mean, it's just he was so awesome in that four game stretch. And then he just wasn't the same guy in the passing game. And, you know, I don't think A.J. Dillon is going to take him off the field in those situations, obvious passing out situations, but Jamal Williams still can. Dillon could take him off the field near the

goal line, which I don't think is necessarily warranted. I think Aaron Jones was good near the goal line last year. But why else would you draft A.J. Dillon and then not give him a role that seems like he was born for? We said this on the Wednesday show with the One Year Wonders about Aaron Jones that if he scored six touchdowns, I would not be shocked.

I've got on my potential list of busts, and people might be like, what are we talking about? I always love this guy, DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett, because Russell Wilson has never given us two top 24 wide receivers in the same season. The closest he came to that was, bear with me here, was Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham. If you had taken Jimmy Graham's fantasy points in 2016, he would have been 25th in non-PPR, 31st in PPR at wide receiver. But that's it. I mean, I'm not sure Metcalf is going to be drafted top 24, probably around there.

No, he won't be. He'll be just outside of it. Yeah, I don't think so. But around 30, right? But the guys you're drafting in that range, you're hoping they have breakout potential. You're drafting a guy that you think has big potential in that late fifth round in a 12-team league,

around 60th overall. What was, youth. And this is skewed a little bit because I know what you're saying, the overall numbers, but Tyler Lockett's rookie season, he closed the year playing really well, and Baldwin was still playing at a high level. That was when I think Graham got hurt.

Yeah. There are definitely... I'm surprised Lockett never had just kind of a fluky top 24 season with Doug Baldwin. Well, he did when Baldwin didn't. In 2018, that was when Baldwin was hurt.

This is his best duo probably in what they profile to be. Baldwin was obviously very good, but I think Metcalf has a higher ceiling if he plays to his level. Do we have an idea on how frequently Seattle's had a top 15 fantasy receiver? Yes, five years in a row. So you could draft both and know that you're getting one number one receiver.

Almost certainly. That's a lot of capital, though, to spend. Two of your first five picks? Yeah. Maybe that's easier to do in an auction. Do you think it could happen where both of them have big years? Because the case you could make

is maybe he throws more than he ever has. He pretty much never throws to running back. Like the third guy on the team is usually really far down. So I know Heath, you've talked about like the Vikings don't throw the ball a lot in some years,

but they've got the scenario where two receivers can be good because those are basically the only guys that get significant targets. Is this the year that Russell Wilson, who's been a starting quarterback since 2012, can break that and give us two top 24 receivers? Why could it happen? I mean, it could, but I think the path to that happening is neither of them are in the top 15. Yeah, yeah, DK Metcalf could come in at 22 or 23, and Tyler Lockett could be 18 or 19, or flip those around. Or their defense could just be absolutely atrocious,

and they could be forced into throwing 550 passes, and Russell Wilson could be the number one quarterback, and they could both be top 15 guys. I think it's more with the running game, too. The running game is atrocious. You know, you got all these guys that are banged up and I know Mr. Optimism, Pete Carroll says Chris Carson is going to be fine, but this is now two or four years where he hasn't been able to finish the season due to a lower leg injury or a leg injury, you know, hip

and a broken leg. Rashad Penny, you know, he's for Pete Carroll to say something on a negative side that he's going to potentially start on the pop list. That's probably a bad sign for Rashad Penny, you know, he's for Pete Carroll to say something on a negative side that he's going to potentially start on the pop list. That's probably a bad sign for Rashad Penny. You know, they're talking about Marshawn Lynch again. You know, he's been on Westworld. He's an actor at this point. You know, what are we what are we expecting from him?

And DJ Dallas, you could say maybe has potential, but it's just it just if the run game fails and, you know, even if Carson is just good and not great, then Russell Wilson has to be more Herculean because the defense being bad. I think you're right, Heath. I think you're going to see probably the two guys be outside of the top 15, maybe more so than one guy being in it. But that's not necessarily going to be bad. You can get a number 15 finish from Lockett and a number 18 finish from Metcalf. So it goes back to something I said a few weeks ago.

I'd rather take the value of Metcalf where you can draft him based on the value of Lockett because I do think that Metcalf will close the gap a little bit this year. Okay, I just want to make one final point. Don't forget the tight ends too. I mean, Greg Olson, if he stays healthy, he's going to be a factor in Disley if he's there. Okay, so now I'll make my final point.

Before Tyler Lockett got hurt, never missed a game, but he got hurt against, I believe it was San Francisco in week 10. Russell Wilson was the number one quarterback in fantasy. He was blowing everyone away, basically. And Lockett was like a top five wide receiver and i think netcalf is somewhere around 20 so you know maybe we just didn't get to see a full season of wilson at his best but wilson was just killing it those first nine games uh before lockett got hurt has he done that before yes he's a streaky yes that is definitely in his i wonder if it's if it's a a tom brady

like scenario where brady is always good in october and november and then they just get so run heavy in december like is this a storyline that we should be selling russell wilson as they get to the playoffs i don't think so i don't think it's broken down like that consistently i just think he is uh he has he has a lot of disappointing weeks and a lot of league winning weeks. No, that much I know. But I don't think it's calendar based. I wonder if there was a pattern to it. Just as an example,

last year from week 11. Go back to the previous year. That's what I want to know. I want to know 17, 18, 16, you know, those seasons. Is there a pattern of Russell Wilson maybe getting hot at the end of the season? Maybe it's just that's when he plays his best and last year was a fluke.

I'll tell you what I'll do. I'll look at his splits by month because I know with Tom Brady, there's a big drop, a pretty big drop off in December. With Russell Wilson, no, not really. Touchdown. December's his best month, most games, but 71 touchdowns.

But last year, he had one game, last four weeks of the season, one game with eight, one with 22, one with 33, one with 10. 10 was week 17. Well, we can finish the show with some Apple Podcast questions. What about your life? Everybody. Two truths to thank everybody. Oh, two truths and a lie. We'll do that.

Well, I do want to thank everybody for leaving Apple podcast reviews. They're very helpful for us as we continue to grow our show. I also want to encourage you to just tell your friend. Just tell one friend about our show. Just help us grow. Help us increase our listenership. We really appreciate it. Next week, we have some very interesting topics. We're going to look back at a draft we did last year and kind of see the trends.

Who's going to be this year's Dalvin Cook, the late round two pick that's much better than we thought? Who's going to be the best? Where is the value? I think late round quarterbacks and tight ends is something we can hit on, but there's that. We're talking about year two wide receivers. That's where it's at, baby. Great receivers break out in year two. So we'll talk about that. Workhorse running backs who aren't very good, like maybe

Todd Gurley, maybe Le'Veon Bell. Definitely Le'Veon Bell. Yeah, if he's still a workhorse. That's an interesting range of players, so we'll discuss that. And here's the lie I told, apparently. The one draft pick I made

that is going to haunt me for the rest of the offseason, apparently. Well, it just depends which league you take him in and which league you don't. Who is the rookie wide receiver in the best spot to contribute right away? Justin Jefferson of the Vikings. And he is the rookie wide receiver you the best spot to contribute right away? Justin Jefferson of the Vikings.

And he is the rookie wide receiver you'll be drafting first? In a redraft league, yes. And in the magazine that is coming out in June, you had a chance to take him or another rookie wide receiver. Did you take him? I tried to,

but it auto-picked the other guy. It auto-picked the other guy. Okay, auto-picked. Got guy. It auto-picked the other guy. Okay, it auto-picked. Got it. So when you drafted Henry Ruggs ahead of Justin Jefferson, you're going against your bold prediction? I guess so. I don't know what that's all about.

I don't remember making the pick. Apparently, I drafted Ruggs ahead of... Where did Jefferson go? Like three picks later. I guess I didn't get him in the next round out, I drafted Ruggs ahead of... Where did Jefferson go? Like three picks later. I guess I didn't get him in the next round out, did I? Let's see. Let me take a look at your team here. Your team

in that draft is... This will be one of the rare reveals we have for our magazine. You took Dalvin Cook in round one, Canyon Drake in round two. Oh, this could be the reason. I'm going to give you an out. You took Adam Thielen in round three. Maybe you didn't want to load up on the Kirk Cousins weaponry. And Dalvin Cook.

That would be a great friendship strategy, though. It actually would have been. What was I thinking not taking Jefferson there? Adam Thielen in round three. Amari Cooper round four. DK Metcalf round five. David Montgomery round six. Marquise Brown round seven. Marlon, round six. Marquise Brown,

round seven. Marlon Mack, round eight. And then here we go. Henry Ruggs, the third in round nine. You get Madison. That's a good team. I like that. Hayden Hurst. Oh, who's my quarterback? Jared Goff and Daniel Jones. Oh, hot. Love it. Let's play it out.

Let's play it out. Let's play it out. It's a good team. It's a good team. Thank you. Okay, and you see what I did there. I have two year two wide receivers, Metcalf and Marquise Brown. All right, Apple podcast questions. From Raphael is the best.

Well, we'll see about that when we grade your trade. I just traded Aaron Jones and 2.12 for Chris Godwin in Dynasty. How would you grade the trade? I like it a lot. You're the best. All right, good job. Steve from a city west of Toronto. Cambridge.

Good job. Is there a book on defending Lamar Jackson now? I need to keep two and a four pointpoint-per-passing touchdown league, and it doesn't affect my draft position. Lamar Jackson, DeAndre Hopkins, Chris Godwin, Travis Kelsey. Doesn't matter if there's a book or not. Keep Godwin and Kelsey. Yeah, those are the two best players.

Question, though. Does the four-point-per-passing touchdown scoring make Lamar Jackson even more valuable? It does, but not better than those other two guys. It makes him more valuable relative to the other quarterbacks, for sure. Right. It's a tough kind of tradeoff. It makes quarterbacks less valuable, but Lamar Jackson more valuable. Interesting concept.

From Blind Zebra, I have 1.1 and 1.3 in my rookie draft. I'm pretty set on Clyde Edwards-Elair at 1, and the guy at pick 2 is set on Jonathan Taylor. Should I go Swift or Dobbins at 1.3? I think I'd go Dobbins. I'd go Judy, but... Well, it depends on how set he is at wide receiver.

If he's loaded at receiver, then he doesn't need Lamb or Judy or any of those guys. Great show, guys. If you have to take a running back, I think Dobbins is a little bit better than Swift long-term. What did we learn today? You lie.

I lie. Filthy liar. Wrong about Le'Veon Bell, apparently. Friends don't lie, Adam. What is that from? That is from... Oh, Stranger Things! Yep.

Yes! I feel pissed at you about the Wednesday show where you forgot your friend's birthday. Shraggy B. It's currently still Shraggy B's birthday, so I hope he has a great one. All right, we're out of here. Thanks so much for listening, everybody.

We'll talk to you on Friday with the best of the next half decade of fantasy football. Can't wait for that. Na, na, na, na, na, na, na. see football. Can't wait for that.