Fantasy Football Today - Finding Upside: Searching for League-Winners in Your Draft (05/28 Fantasy Football Podcast)
Episode Date: May 28, 2024Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and wherever else you listen to podcasts We'll take a trio of players at the same pos...ition and debate who has the most upside. Let's start with Sam Laporta vs. Trey McBride vs. Mark Andrews (2:15). Then we take a quick break from this exercise to follow some of the trending Fantasy stories (8:25) and decide if they are nonsense or if they are Fantasy relevant ... Who has the most upside: Davante Adams/Michael Pittman/Deebo Samuel (20:30); Chris Godwin/Calvin Ridley/Malik Nabers (24:40); D.J. Moore/Jaylen Waddle/Stefon Diggs (28:35)? ... Moving on to running backs and quarterbacks, we debate upside for Travis Etienne/Rachaad White/James Cook (32:50), Alvin Kamara/Joe Mixon/Ken Walker (35:40), Aaron Jones/Nick Chubb/Javonte Williams (38:50), C.J. Stroud/Dak Prescott/Joe Burrow (40:55), Anthony Richardson/Caleb Williams/Jayden Daniels (45:30) and the Top 4 QBs in Fantasy (48:40) ... Email us at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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this is fantasy football today from cbs sports
it's time to dominate your fantasy league What a play! Can you believe this? No, I can't.
It's time to dominate your fantasy league.
Off to the races, and he stays on his feet.
He's just going to go the distance.
Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.
All right.
Upside.
You're going to hear that word about 50 times on today's show and about 5,000 times in the next three months or so as we get ready for our drafts.
And then it won't stop.
It won't stop after that.
We'll be talking about upside all throughout the season, too.
It's a big word in fantasy football.
We're going to give you trios of players that are ranked similarly for Dave and Jamie and probably for Heath as well.
Only Dave and Jamie are here today.
And we're going to talk about who has the most upside. Doesn't necessarily mean you should draft that guy
first, but we'll have some fun and talk about
the upside. It's the fifth time
now that I've said that. Hello, Dave. What is
on your big Batman-esque
shirt? Big
Batman. This isn't Batman. This is the
opposite of Batman. This says idiot.
Oh, well, it looks like the shirt of
fellow YouTuber Vegas
Matt and his crew
ej and wbg and all those guys they've got a fun channel uh decided to support them got one of
their shirts i think i'm the i was thought i was the one who called people idiots or you know well
you don't have a shirt though and for the record they call themselves idiots also it's great to
wear this shirt out in public because it makes my wife cringe because people see it and they laugh and they make jokes.
And she thinks that I'm an idiot for wearing a shirt that says idiot.
And she might be.
She might be right.
No.
Yeah.
Just Jamie.
Good weekend.
Good holiday weekend.
Yes.
A lot of baseball.
All right.
That's what that's what Memorial Day is about.
It's kind of a baseball.
You a good weekend?
Thank you.
I did have a good weekend.
Thank you very much for asking.
All right.
Most upsides.
So here's one trio.
We'll get to this, then we'll take a quick break and do some notes,
and then we'll get back to it.
But let's look at if we assume Kelsey has the most upside at the tight end position.
We do. You don't have to, but I didn't include him in this.
I'll just ask that.
Does Travis Kelsey have the most upside at the position?
No.
I think he does.
Really, Jamie?
Who has more upside?
There's a second-year tight end that was pretty awesome last year
that I think is going to be better.
Think is going to be better is different than has more upside, right?
I think he's going to have more upside because I think he will be better.
But their best case scenario, you think Laporta is higher than Kelsey?
Yes.
Okay.
All right.
Well, who has the most upside in this group?
I think I know Jamie's answer. Sam Laporta, Trey McBride, or Mark Andrews? first year without experience compared to where he'll be now that he can coexist in an offense
where he's not necessarily the top target week in and week out and still put up good fantasy points
per game. He was right around 14, 14.1 is the number that I have. And he had a lot of huge
games on top of it. And I know that Trey McBride was awesome last year. We know he's got company
in the passing game. Now in Arizona, we know that mark andrews history is outstanding in baltimore with lamar jackson but he's got company in the form of derrick henry
that guy's going to take away some touchdowns i think that laporte is the one of this trio
that has the most upside okay jamie i guess would agree i guess i'll have to just make a case for
someone else and to me, it's Andrews.
Andrews has a season where he averaged 17.5 PPR fantasy points.
Dave said Laporte averaged 14.1 last year.
That's pretty much the same if you include the three postseason games where he was playing hurt.
It's pretty much the same if you take away week 18
when he left with an injury.
He scored about 14 points in that game.
Trey McBride, his best stretch, he averaged 15 points per game.
That was 10 games after taking
over for Zach Ertz. But Andrews, 17.5 PPR fantasy points. Now, can he do that again? I'm thinking
no. That was a year where the Ravens threw 36 times per game. They averaged about 250 passing
yards per game, by far the most in the Lamar Jackson era. But they might throw more and throw, you know, they might have a good passing season
for them. Anyway, but he averaged 14.6 points per game, Andrews, last year if you remove week 11.
That's half a point better than Laporta. And he averaged 16.4 points per game in the first seven
games of 2022 before his injury. And then he came back and Lamar Jackson was out. And
I think they threw something like three touchdown passes in their last five or six games of 2022.
So Andrews, if I was making the case, I don't think I'm going to make the case for McBride,
but that's the case for Andrews. It's hard to say he's been better than Laporta. I mean,
it's not really fair to Laporta. He's only had one year under his belt, but I don't know that Laporta can reach the heights that Mark Andrews has
reached. Well, I think the thing that you're looking at, and this is where Travis Kelsey
comes in also, is that you've seen it, you know, so you've seen it from Kelsey. You've seen it from
Andrews. You know what they're capable of doing. They have the same quarterback. They're in,
you know, systems that they're familiar with. Andrews, you know, year two, obviously Kelsey, his entire career. Um, and, and, you know, it's, it's why they're relatively safe and still
relatively awesome, uh, for Laporta. It's the question is, can he do it again? You know? And
so I don't think anybody's shying away from drafting him as a top three tight end. You know,
if you want to compare him to Andrews McBride and Kelsey, you know, he may not be first on
everybody's list, but he's certainly going to be drafted in the first four rounds.
The other two guys are as well, the two veterans.
McBride is the interesting one because not only was he great last year for a stretch,
and it was a stretch with Kyler Murray and a little bit without Kyler Murray,
but now we know what they added.
They added Marvin Harrison.
They bring in Zay Jones.
It's a change from what happened last year where really when McBride got going, Marquise Brown was dealing with an injury
and then there was nobody else really to steal a lot of targets. Michael Wilson had a few decent
games, but clearly the talent level around him is much different. So for me, McBride is fourth.
And I really struggle with McBride versus Kincaid at this point, just because I think there's as much
upside for Kincaid. But I think really when you start to look at the position, it's top heavy from a different standpoint. It's not top
heavy for one or two guys. It's top heavy with about four or five guys that you can say should
be bunched up. We've talked about this a lot. Should be bunched up, should go in the first
five rounds. And I don't think Kincaid is going to creep into the fourth round yet.
But those five guys I think are worth drafting at the top of the position.
Okay. So they say Sam Laporta has the most upside.
Here's another point in Laporta's favor.
Imagine that the Lions don't rush for 23 or 27 touchdowns
like they have each of the last two years.
They've been fifth in scoring or top five in scoring both years.
They get near the goal line.
They run it in so frequently.
Well, what if it's 16 rushing touchdowns?
What if Jared Goff can throw 35 or more?
He's thrown 29 and 30,
or the team has thrown 29 and 30 the last two years.
What if it's a little bit more balanced near the goal line
and you get 35 plus touchdown passes,
maybe two or three more for Sam Laporta,
maybe a mom or St. Brown too.
All right.
We've got FFT Dynasty twice this week.
Hope everybody had a great weekend
and thrown off our schedule just a little bit
instead of Monday, Wednesday.
Well, what would we be?
Monday, Wednesday, Thursday.
Is that what we were?
Now we're Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday this week.
Next week will be four shows a week.
So we've got plenty of content for you.
The Dynasty podcast twice a week.
I'm going to start our rookie draft in the Bake Burger League.
By the way, I made burgers yesterday, but because it was Memorial Day,
I said, you know what, let's do it right.
I don't have a grill, but let's use the stovetop and not bake them
so they're not terrible.
So I did that for all of you out there.
They were good.
But, yeah, we have plenty of fantasy content coming your way
and great stuff on the website, cbssports.com slash fantasy.
And our terrible baseball commissioner still has not changed our record.
I just want everyone to know.
Who could that be?
He's the worst.
I mean, he's just such a – I hope you're listening, Jack, because you're just a terrible commissioner.
I've got a few things here.
I want to know if you think they're nonsense or if you think they're fantasy relevant.
You get a lot of stories right now.
Look, there's not a lot to write about so you get these quotes and they become headlines
and let's see are they nonsense or fantasy relevant anthony richardson says he won't
change the way he plays he won't change his style of play you think that's nonsense
or yeah i want that i don't want him to suddenly become cautious well you're buying that he's
going to be the same guy not only am i buying it i'm pleased because that's what got him drafted
that's what got him the attention that he needed to become a an interesting nfl prospect and you
saw the production in a couple of games last year i'm very happy with that do you think this note
from the athletic is nonsense or do you think this note from The Athletic is nonsense,
or do you think it's legit and it's fantasy relevant?
Nick Kosmider of The Athletic thinks it's going to be tough
for Javante Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Samaj P. Ryan
to keep their roles from last season.
I buy it.
I mean, they added another guy to the mix,
and estimate that it's another one that Sean Payton has brought in
as opposed to Javante who he inherited. And look, I still think Javante should be the best
of the bunch if he's going to get the playing time and the touches, but if he's not going to
get the playing time and the touches, then it's going to be very difficult for him to be the most
productive. But, uh, this is a coach that's proven to use multiple guys, you know, whether it's two
running backs or two running backs and a wild card and Taysom Hill, you know, whether it's two running backs or two running backs and a wild
card and Taysom Hill, you know, so he's not afraid to, you know, get the most production from whoever
he thinks is going to give him that on that particular player, that particular situation.
So we'll see how they're going to use these guys. You know, it'd be, I'm, I'm still curious,
you know, Denver's one of these teams, you know, I don't know if, if, if there's anybody that's
trade worthy, but there's, there's, there's a team out there that needs a running back and you know i've said this with khalil herbert you know there's a
few other situations damian pierce you could throw in the conversation too although there was a note
this weekend about his role for houston but there's some teams that have a glut at the position and
denver is one of them and so you wonder if they cut somebody you know samaj they would probably
make the most sense if they're going to cut someone. But if they cut somebody, does that player become more attractive elsewhere?
But if they all stay on the Broncos, it's just very difficult to say one guy is going to dominate touches.
And that's frustrating for the Javante Williams truthers.
I'm sorry.
Did you mention Blake Watson on the Broncos?
No, he's part of it, too.
He's another guy that they like.
Yeah, because that was mentioned in the article in The Athletic in the athletic i don't i mean look that this one might be
kind of nonsense but blake watson he had 53 catches last year with memphis he's an undrafted
free agent and uh cosmitter writes that he was particularly impressive thursday demonstrating
the past catching ability that made him one of the best receiving backs in the country last season.
We will continue this game of nonsense or fantasy relevant
after a quick break on fantasy football today,
and then we'll get into our upside.
Who has the most upside in the group of Devontae Adams,
Michael Pittman, and Deebo Samuel?
Chris Godwin, Calvin Ridley, Malik Neighbors.
We'll talk about that after this break.
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All right, is this nonsense or is it fantasy relevant?
Patrick Mahomes said that Andy Reid is pushing the Chiefs
to push the ball downfield.
It's fantasy relevant.
Yeah. Oh, yeah. We're hoping for that.
I wonder if this is just like part of their off-season workouts
and then when the games start,
it's too high safeties nonstop and they're forced to throw it short, short, short.
Let's take a second and make this about me.
I've got this horrible pick in our dynasty draft.
Seventh in the rookie draft.
I just hate it.
You want to trade?
No, I don't want to trade back.
I want to trade up.
I want to get one of the top three receivers.
But at seven, I'm thinking about Xavier Worthy.
It would be him over Brock Bowers.
That's the range for him.
It's Jonathan Brooks' range.
It's Brock Bowers' range.
It's where the receivers start to become a little muddy,
especially in super flex with the,
the quarterbacks who,
you know,
may or may not be coming off the board at that particular point with
McCarthy and Drake may,
whoever you like better.
So yeah,
you have a tough call.
Yeah.
Let's I want to trade a nonsense or fantasy relevant.
Dan Campbell says that James,
they made a big trade in our dynasty draft.
Oh, did he? I just had made a big trade in our dynasty draft. Oh,
did he?
I just had a big trade.
What was it?
I,
I traded draft picks to move up and get Roman Wilson.
I had to get my boy.
Oh,
okay.
I wonder if he would have been there though for,
no,
because as soon as I made the pick,
the,
the team that I traded with sent me a text and said,
Oh,
I wanted him.
Always a good feeling when you get that text.
All right.
Uh,
Dan Campbell said,
he also ripped off Chris towers,
Jamison Williams.
That's the big trade that we should have talked.
Hold on.
Hold on.
I hope he talks about it on Dan.
Campbell said that Jamison Williams is a man on a mission.
Nonsense or fantasy relevant.
Is he, is he rolling with mo oscar and mabel
you won't get that no no idea yeah i listen it's it's been lots of positive quotes about jameson
williams all off season long let's see what training camp brings one of those receivers
that you can get in the middle of your draft that has, what's that word that we're using 50 times today, Adam?
Upside.
Yeah, he's got all of it.
So if he can put it all together in his third year,
watch out because he was fantastic in college.
He just has to be able to, like I just said, put it all together.
I just got a trade offer for Jamison Williams in Dynasty League
of Jamison and Tua at Superflex.
Jamison and Tua for J. Jamison and Tua for JJ McCarthy,
Ben Senate and a second round pick next year.
Oh, wow. I think I'd rather, I, yeah,
I'd definitely rather have the will the Jamison and Tua side.
I would too, but I don't think my team is ready to win.
And so giving up a second round pick and super flex is not exactly the most
ideal for me. So I'm going to counter.
Oh, okay. Yeah. Counter. How about this one?
Baltimore coordinator Todd Monken has seen tremendous growth from Rashad Bateman.
And this is not the first Rashad Bateman story.
I think it was Harbaugh who said he's going to have a big year.
Yeah.
Nonsense or fantasy relevant.
I'm just worried that people are going to overdraft Bateman and take him in that round 7, 8 range.
Like there will be so much hype around him by the time we get to August that people will reach for him.
And I don't think he's worth reaching for.
I agree.
Good player, but not worth reaching for. It's the loss of Beckham.
It's a former first round talent.
It's still a team that wants to run the ball very much with the addition of Derrick Henry.
And then you have what he's done in his career,
which just hasn't been much.
So great late round flyer,
could be the first guy you cut.
Okay, for Bateman, yeah.
But I mean, he cannot have a good season
for the sake of Zay Flowers, I'd feel like.
It's just like, you know,
we've never seen this team with three other in
the jackson era with three fantasy relevant pass catchers right usually it's like one but i don't
know if we've ever seen this team with three fantasy relevant pass catchers but that would
i mean if bateman has a good season i just either either Jackson just runs away with the MVP or something,
or, or I feel like, do you feel that way that flowers would be disappointing?
I mean, I, you could see a path to this happening if Derek Henry goes down and they don't have
a running game that they trust and then it's all on Lamar.
And so, yes, he could have another huge season, but more so throwing than running.
But I mean, look, they're, they're, they're, they're talented players.
You know what I mean?
Andrews has proven himself flowers at a good rookie season and
Bateman's a former first round pick.
So, you know, it's, it's a, it's just a good late round pick.
That's all you want to do.
You know, don't, don't, don't stress about it.
Well said Houston head coach D'Amico Ryan says he thinks of Damian Pierce
and Joe Mixon as a one-two punch nonsense or fantasy relevant?
Nonsense.
I agree.
He'll,
he'll learn that it's nonsense three or four weeks into the season.
Christian Watson may have figured out the root of his hamstring problems.
This was actually an interesting story.
Might be the greatest quote we've had all year.
And maybe one of the greatest quotes in a long time.
What, what was it?
I don't want to misquote him, so I'm going to get – you can talk about it, Dave, and I'll just get the quote word for word.
It was something about how he –
Don't ruin it. Don't ruin it. Don't ruin it.
I don't know what I should or shouldn't say now.
The quote from –
Christian Watson.
Christian Watson himself. Hamstrings. uh the quote from watson christian watson himself hamstrings was quote for me it really was the
asymmetry between the legs that's what it is yeah no so like one of his legs was just a lot stronger
than the other ones so he's uh trying to even out i think think, the muscle mass in the hamstrings or the legs or something.
I thought you said hamstring.
Could be big.
Oh, could be big.
That is fantasy relevant.
And then Aaron Rodgers said that Malachi Corley was his favorite wide receiver in the draft.
What a coincidence that the Jets took his favorite wide receiver.
Do you think if they had taken Adonai Mitchell, he would have said
the same thing? Or Brock Bowers?
Did you see the... Brock Bowers is my favorite
pass catcher in the draft. The fallout from this, by the
way, from Amani Rogers.
No. Because
he was one of the draft picks
toward the end of Rogers' tenure there in Green
Bay. And I believe Corley
is going to live with Rogers. If I got the story correct, that he's allowing him tenure there in Green Bay. And I believe Corley is going to live with Rodgers,
if I got the story correct,
that he's allowing him to stay in his house
and is taking him under his wing.
And Imani Rodgers said,
I never got this kind of treatment.
Well, Imani Rodgers also got to live with Imani Rodgers.
Just a few quick news items here.
Sean Payton said that wide receiver Tim Patrick
is one of the leaders in the wide receiver room.
Remember Tim Patrick?
He's missed two straight seasons
with training camp injuries,
but maybe he throws a wrench in some of the...
I said Amani to Amari Rogers, sorry.
Amari Rogers, yes.
Greg Dolcich expected to be ready for training camp
and Sauce Gardner might shadow wide receivers,
which will be good for my mental health
because I feel like I rant about that
every time he doesn't shadow a wide receiver
and the Jets lose
because some wide receiver did too well against them
because Sauce Gardner did not shadow them.
Back to the most upside.
Jalen Waddell in every Dolphins-Jets game?
Jalen Waddell, I think the biggest play of the year
for Jalen Waddell came against Sauce Gardner. If not the biggest, one think the biggest play of the year for Jalen Waddell came against Sauce Gardner.
If not the biggest, one of the biggest plays of the year.
He was one of the only guys who did well against Sauce Gardner.
Devontae Adams, Michael Pittman, and Debo Samuel.
You might be on the clock thinking about these three guys.
Devontae, Pittman, and Debo Samuel.
Who has the most upside, Dave?
This was an awesome trio that you put together because I
think you can make the case for all three, but I eliminated Pittman first because of his situation,
because of his quarterback, because Indianapolis still strikes me as a run first team. And they
added another pass catcher in, uh, in Adonai Mitchell. Now, Adams has been amazing, and I hate to use
that as the crutch argument for why he's got the most upside of this group. And his offense,
change quarterbacks, added Brock Bowers, you know the whole drill. Nothing really changed with Debo
in San Francisco. And last year, he averaged 17 PPR points per game. But I think Devante could be better than
that. And we just saw a year where Minshew peppered his number one wide receiver with targets. It was
Pittman and Pittman had a very good season. I think Adams could be better. Adams is also on a team
that won't necessarily cram it with the running back when they're in the red zone. I think that
Adams is the one that has the most upside, but it's really close. And I, if there's an argument to be made for Debo, I think it's obvious because of what he can do as a rusher and the offense that he's in.
And these are all three very good.
Number two, high end, number two, fantasy wide receivers.
Debo has the most upside mostly because of an injury.
And that's when I think we've seen him spike in terms of the non-2021 season
when he first started doing all of his rushing production.
In terms of if everybody stays healthy, Pittman has the most upside.
Devontae's going in the wrong end of his career from an age standpoint.
He's on a team that's going to run the ball just as much as any of these guys
based on what we saw at the end of last season.
They added a significant piece in terms of the passing game with Brock Bowers,
and there's no guarantee Gardner Minch is going to be the quarterback.
It could be Aiden O'Connell, which was good for Adams in that stretch
when White was carrying the ball.
But I always think, again, you're looking at a player that's starting to,
I think, hit the decline in his career as opposed to the upside.
I'll take Pittman for the unknown.
And the unknown is Anthony Richardson.
And so if Richardson shows the glimpses as a passer that we saw
in the first four games of the season, when he was,
you know,
trying to learn the NFL and,
and I think surprised a lot of people by how he threw the ball.
If the touchdowns go up for Pittman and the targets stay relatively the same,
he could have a huge season,
a monster campaign.
So while yes,
Mitchell is there and that's going to be a factor.
I don't know how much of a factor that will be with Josh downs as well.
With what they get,
maybe from the other parts,
you know, tight end,
out of the running back position as well.
But Pittman to me has the most upside
if Anthony Richardson is as good as advertised.
Debo from an injury standpoint,
Pittman from a production standpoint,
Devontae is the one that scares me the most.
Yeah, Pittman was wide receiver 18 per game last year,
but he only caught four touchdowns.
In his last three seasons, Pittman has six.
Listen to this.
He has six, four, and four touchdown catches, Michael Pittman,
and he's led his team in touchdown catches all three years.
Yeah, this is a team that loves to run when they get in the red zone.
Yeah, but they've thrown 27 touchdown passes,
which was a lot three years ago, but the last two years, only 17 and 18.
So that could go up.
But this stat really blew my mind for Debo Samuel.
In week seven, I believe, he played 15% of the snaps.
In week 18, he played 33% of the snaps.
So, of course, let's take those games out.
He averaged like 18 and a half fantasy points
per game 18.3 if you take away those partial games as depot samuel that would have made him
wide receiver six per game i mean that really shocked me does that include a game where i
didn't play yeah it includes everything right uh so yeah so there is that um but yeah i was
obviously if iu goes down debo's gonna have a huge swing in terms of well i mean there is a
change pierce all's there now you know so we'll see what that matters yeah yeah let's go to the
next trio here uh who do you have this was the most difficult one, though, of the ones you had. I agree. How do you have them ranked, the three of them?
Pittman, Adams, Debo.
I've got Adams, Pittman, Debo.
That's full PPR.
All right, next up, who's got the most upside?
Chris Godwin, Calvin Ridley, or Malik Neighbors?
Godwin.
I'll say Neighbors.
I thought this one was maybe tougher.
Except it's kind of hard to say Ridley here, isn't it?
It's not hard.
I mean, Heath would argue for Ridley.
He's a big fan.
Okay.
All right, Jamie, make your Godwin case.
Godwin, Ridley, Neighbors.
Jamie said Godwin.
Neighbors for Dave.
And Heath, yes, said Ridley. He's going back in the slot. So that's whenwin neighbors for Dave and Heath. Yes. Said Ridley.
He's going back in the slot, you know,
so that's when we've seen his best production and I'm excited to see him,
you know,
hopefully get back to the target chair that he was dealing with prior to last
year and, you know, running routes that he's more comfortable with.
Obviously it's a change going from Brady to Baker.
And we saw that was a big downgrade for Godwin last year.
And then you factor in that the one game that Mike Evans missed, Godwin was an absolute superstar.
And so if that happens again, then you could see a huge year coming for Godwin. But to me,
I just like his situation the best. Ridley's a little bit of a wild card, mostly because of
Will Levis. If Levis is good, Ridley could be amazing. And obviously, Nabors going into his
rookie season, but we know rookie receivers, for the most part, take a little bit of time before
they get going. So I'll take what Godwin rookie receivers for the most part, take a little bit of time before they get going.
So I'll take what Godwin has done in the slot over the other two guys.
How about this in Godwin's final five games?
And this is just for everybody who's listening.
That's going really Godwin is even in this conversation.
He should be final five games last year.
He averaged nine targets per game, 15.7 PPR points.
He was really healthy for those last five games. And he was dealing with something through the first two thirds of the year. And that's why his production was down. Don't forget
a couple of years ago, 16.8 PPR points per game. I'd have to look it up to see how much he played
in the slot in 2021, but he he's got that potential to be North of 15. I just think he's
got a lot of downside too, because Evans is still playing at a high level in Tampa Bay. I chose neighbors because to me, defining upside means a player gets tons of opportunities
and he can do things to create yardage, create stats, create touchdowns, et cetera.
And I think neighbors could have those opportunities in New York.
I don't like the quarterback situation very much, but I also think that the Giants don't
have much of a choice. They've got to figure out a way to put up some points. Neighbors is going to
be their best option now that Saquon's gone. I think they're going to be trailing in a lot of
games. It would not surprise me if neighbors flirted with eight targets per game this year.
And I think he could have some pretty good efficiency based on how well he moves, man,
just lightning fast acceleration and just the ability to make some plays after the catch.
I think he's got that little edge to him.
Ahead of Ridley, who used to be like that, but he's older now.
And ahead of Godwin, who doesn't do that.
Godwin's going to need volume.
He's going to need eight or nine targets per game in order to be at the top of this
trio.
Godwin, this is what's so frustrating about fantasy football,
about, you know, predicting stats.
Godwin three season stretch 2018 to 2020.
He had 24 touchdown catches.
He had seven, nine and seven in 2021 to 2023.
The last three years, he has 10 touchdown catches, you know,
and a lot more targets over the last three years
than the three previous.
So, I mean, five touchdowns in his last two years combined
for Chris Godwin, and, you know,
it's pretty easy to see him scoring
at least 15 PPR fantasy points per game,
which he did four years in a row before last year.
All right.
So there's also an ACL tear in there too,
that he had to come through.
That's fair.
When was the ACL tear?
2021.
Okay.
So Godwin Ridley neighbors,
we get a Godwin,
we get a neighbors.
Let's go to more DJ,
more Jalen Waddle and Stefan Diggs is our next trio more DJ more Jalen Waddle and Stefan Diggs is
our next trio. DJ more Jalen Waddle and Stefan Diggs. Who has the most upside out of more Waddle
Diggs? I'll say more, but I think that it's fairly close between him and Waddle.
For me, it's Waddle by a significant margin. Okay. So not Diggs more for, for Dave Waddle uh for me it's waddle by a significant margin okay so not digs more for for dave waddle
for jamie and any significant margin jamie yeah i mean look more is going to a rookie quarterback
with a very crowded receiving core uh digs is going to a very crowded receiving core with a
quarterback who has to get used to him waddles in the same situation coming off a very disappointing
season last year where injuries for the most part played a part uh play the biggest part um you saw
what he was able to accomplish two years ago and i think he gets back to that and you know you also
have the situation where you have a 30 year old tyree kill who we saw one game missed for him last
year i believe was just game that you referenced adam Adam where he had the big game against or big play against, um, and, and Waddle was a monster. And so I think just based on the team
that he plays for, yes, there's some new additions, Odell Beckham, Leak Washington,
John Smith. If you want to factor those guys in, it's still Tyree kill and Jalen Waddle is the top
two guys. And it's a one in one a, you know, based on how they operate and the targets that they'll
get. And so more, I think we'll still be good.
Stefan digs, hopefully we'll still be good to me.
Waddle has a chance to be fantastic.
He's around to pick.
If Tyree kill goes down, Waddle is the correct answer.
There's no question about it.
I don't like that.
Waddle has only six games in his last 22 with at least 15 PPR points.
I wish that he was a little bit more productive.
I wish that he had broken out in games with Tyreek Hill already. That would make me feel good about his upside play if Tyreek Hill
was still on the field. I just don't know if that's going to happen. What we saw last year
from DJ Moore, 13 games. This is with Justin Fields, 8.2 targets per game. We know that those
targets weren't always on point. He averaged 19 PPR points per game. I do expect his target volume
to go down a little bit.
And I don't, I, we can't say for sure that Caleb Williams is going to be a better thrower
than Justin Fields was. I think he can be can't say it definitively. There was a bad report about
bears, uh, seven on seven drills from OTAs that Caleb didn't look good there, but I think that
DJ Moore can still command the most targets out of the trio in Chicago. And I think that he still has big playability in his back pocket.
He can still be the best of these three.
Okay.
Just going to say this a lot over the next,
I've said it a lot already,
but you'll hear it over the next few months.
It's easy to forget.
Jalen Waddle,
he played more than 70% of the snaps in 13 of 17 games in 2022.
In 2023, Jalen Waddell played more than 70% of the snaps in six of 14 games.
That is my biggest argument for Jalen Waddell,
is the guy just didn't play enough last year for a variety of reasons.
And it was really good in 2023, averaged over 15 fantasy points per 2022.
Sorry, over 15 fantasy points per game.
Of course, that wasn't nearly as good as what DJ Moore did last year.
So DJ Moore for Dave, Jalen Waddle for Jamie, Stefan Diggs for no one.
We'll take a break.
We got some running back trios to talk about when we come back.
Stick around.
Much more to come.
Upside Talk on Fantasy Football today.
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Travis ETN, Rashad White, James Cook.
I do think that Etienne is going.
Is this an easy one?
Was this stupid?
Is it Etienne?
Etienne Cook and who?
Rashad White.
Oh, Rashad White.
It's Etienne, but I can see James Cook having a bigger season.
I'll say Cook.
Oh, I like it. I think James is just doing that to keep the show interesting so I appreciate that
No I do think he has more upside, I mean
you look at what ETN accomplished last year
and you have the story brewing of
taking away more work and making sure he's fresh
and whether that's Bigsby or Johnson or whatever
else they decide to do with their backfield
I mean look, James Cook, yes Ray Davis was brought in
is he going to take James Cook off the field? We saw what the coordinator change was last year
for, for Cook and how, how he finished the season. And I think from a receiving standpoint,
White and Cook are probably better than ETN right now. And Cook might be in a better spot than White
based on the Bucky Irving addition. So in an offense that's lost its top two pass catchers
from a year ago, at least based on
targets and production, there's a lot to like about Cook as a receiver. If he doesn't come
off the field for the rushing touchdowns that he loses and he gets to 10 total touchdowns,
if not 10 rushing touchdowns, I mean, that's a huge stretch with Josh Allen there. But I mean,
if that happens, he's going to be an absolute monster. So it wouldn't surprise me if Cook is
the best of the bunch. I'll still draft ETN first, but Cook is right behind him.
To Jamie's point, after the coordinator change last year in Buffalo,
James Cook averaged 17.3 PPR points per game.
And that's over 11 games from week 11 on, I should say.
That's awesome.
And that's more than what ETN averaged, but it's not by much.
ETN was at 16.6 in full PPR.
I just, I am leery of putting too much stock
into Buffalo running backs.
The track record has been very clear.
We know what Josh Allen's capable of doing,
not just overall, but in the red zone.
I don't think they're going to try and take the ball
out of Josh Allen's hands even more.
I'd love Cook too, very talented,
but I think ETN is the one who's a little bit proven already
and still has all kinds of explosiveness to his game.
We still haven't seen him get unleashed as far as a pass catcher goes.
I'd love to see that in Jacksonville.
I hope that's what they add to the offense.
I'm still going to take ETN.
It's the boring answer, but I think it's the right answer.
Yeah, I think he's still ETN.
I think he had about 50 catches last year.
So it's like, you know, want to see more? He had 58. He had 58 catches. He's still pretty involved.
Why does 58 catches you'll ever hear?
Because he never had more than five in a game. He never had a game where like, holy cow, he just PPR my PPR my team to a victory. But it was basically three or four almost every single week for etn um yeah all right we can move on to our
next one here and that would be alvin camara joe mixon and ken walker who has the most upside
alvin camara joe mixon and ken walker i'll take mixon i'll take camara but it feels gross to say. It feels gross not to say Walker,
but I think it's just the situation that Walker's in in Seattle.
I think Walker has the least upside because of exactly what you said.
I hate it.
I hate it because he's talented, man.
He's really, I think he's a talented running back,
but he's in a tough spot and he hasn't played great his first two seasons.
And this is an offense that I think wants to throw the ball.
I think there'll be a 180 of what they were with Pete Carroll as head coach.
Yeah.
Okay.
So you said Camara.
Jamie said Mixon for the most upside.
Camara, Mixon, Walker.
Yeah.
Okay.
Camara was what?
He was number four per game in full ppr number
eight game and half ppr number 16 per game in non-ppr so it could be format specific but jamie
if camara was fourth per game in full ppr on pace for 103 catches if you remove one partial game
week 17 why is he not why does he not have the most upside in this group?
You pick Mixon.
I will draft him first, but again,
I'm kind of leaning toward the unknown here, Mixon, in this offense.
And so we saw what Devin Singletary did.
I think Mixon's a better player than Singletary,
whether you want to argue he's a better rudder.
That's certainly up for debate.
But I like the offense for Houston.
I think that's going to benefit Mixon.
I think also we'll see him,
you know,
have a chance for double digit rushing touchdowns.
I don't think that's the case for Camara as you've,
uh,
certainly noted time and time again,
Adam,
the fact that the saints have kept Taysom Hill and made him such a priority
this off season to stay on the roster is a big no,
no,
no.
Um,
but it's still a factor,
you know,
it is.
Yeah. I think Kendrick Miller will have a bigger role.
So
again, I would draft Kamara first.
I think he's the safest of the trio.
But if we're just talking upside
here, I'll take the unknown of
Mixon because I think he'll be involved in the passing game.
And I think he has the most touchdown potential
of this group. And you can start with
Mixon's track record too if you wanted to.
He's been over 15 PPR points per game each of the last four seasons.
It's in Cincinnati.
This is a different landing spot for him,
but it's an offense that he should be suitable to play in.
And just thinking about all those receivers and all the speed
and all the size that Houston now has with C.J. Stroud under center
should be a bunch of light boxes for Mixon.
Hopefully, he can make it count.
And, Jamie, I think you're right.
I think he can get to double-digit touchdowns,
but it's going to be those catches that keep Kamara ahead of Mixon.
Yeah, no, I don't disagree.
It's also an age thing.
You know, Kamara's getting to that point where you've got to worry about his…
Yeah, but Mixon's right behind him.
It's not like Mixon's a young spring chicken.
Kamara will be 29 years old in july and uh
over the last three seasons tasemill has 16 rushing touchdowns camara has 11 uh aaron jones
nick chubb giovante williams well this is the upside group well i mean you are talking about
nick chubb who's obviously been one of the best running backs
in football you're talking about aaron jones who's the lead running back for minnesota they're going
to score some points uh i don't know he's the lead running back for minnesota he'll be the lead
running back um so yeah i'm not gonna i mean and then there's giovante you know giovante's coming
off torn acl we can talk about all the names in the backfield. I don't know that there's anyone that's all that good in the Broncos' backfield.
I like McLaughlin.
But Aaron Jones, Nick Chubb, Javante Williams.
Dave, who has the most upside?
If Nick Chubb is right, he's got the most upside.
But that's asking a lot for him, given how his injury has progressed since September.
So I think by default, you've got to say Aaron Jones,
because we don't know what Nick Chubb's going to be when he's,
or when he's going to be back on the field.
And we don't know if Javante Williams is going to be on the field at all
because of the competition in Denver.
So Jones has my vote, but it's by default.
I'm going to change the question slightly.
I'm going to say which backfield has the most upside.
And I'm going to say the Browns backfield has the most upside. backfield has the most upside, and I'm going to say the Browns' backfield has the most upside.
I don't like what you're doing there.
This is not acceptable.
Well, I mean, there's reasons to be concerned about all three of these guys,
and Dave's right.
If we're just going based on each individual player,
Jones has the most upside because it's hard to say if Chubb stays healthy
because he's coming back from a significant injury.
Whereas Jones fought through injuries last year was miserable in the regular
season and then got that five game stretch, you know,
to close the year, including the playoffs where he was a star,
but it didn't help a lot of fantasy managers,
except for the people that were in the semifinals and the playoffs and the
championship. So, yeah.
So I think just based on individual players,
Jones, if he stays healthy,
Javante, if he's the clear guy in the backfield,
then it's him, but it's hard to say.
So I'll take the Cleveland Browns backfield
with the hope that Nick Chubb is right.
Okay.
Yeah, I got time for one more, sorry.
Okay, all right, I'll move on then.
Next one, we'll go to CJ Sproud,
Dax Drescott. Too related to I'll move on then. Next one, we'll go to CJ Sprout, Dak Strescott.
Is he related to Imani Richards?
CJ Stroud, Dak Prescott, Joe Burrow.
Who's got the most upside?
This was a fun one to think about.
I'm going to say Stroud.
So I'm going to critique your next one,
which I believe is the Richardson one.
Richardson should have been in this one and not Dak.
I know why you did Richardson with the other ones,
but Richardson should be in this group, not Dak, in terms of upside.
That's not fair.
That is ridiculous because Dak – no, it's not ridiculous.
That's the whole point.
Nobody thinks about Dak Prescott as an upside guy, I think.
That's – I shouldn't say nobody.
Of course not.
But he is. He is an upside guy. Well, I think. That's, I shouldn't say nobody. Of course not. But he is.
He is an upside guy.
Well, I think he's proven that.
I mean, he's been.
I think he's a, well, again, let's backtrack for a second
because for people that aren't aware,
we always refer to six points for passing touchdowns.
We've had some guests on that have had Richardson in their top five
and understandably so.
For six points for passing touchdowns, Dak does belong in this group.
But in terms of upside, I think Richardson is more in this group
than he is the next group just because the unknown
and young quarterback.
For me, I'll take Stroud.
I think just based on what he showed last year, the addition of digs
and hopefully getting better in year two, I'll buy that.
Almost 28 points per game, six point per passing touchdowns in seven
games where both nico and take dell played at least 60 of the snaps each and now that he's
adding give me that stat again jamie you're leaving in a second yeah 27.8 fantasy points
per game six point passing touchdown that includes the 50 point game right yes seven games with nico
and dell playing at least 60 of the snaps each right it's it's such a weird season for for
stroud because that game boosted everything clearly and then right after that he lost dell
so we don't know how he would have finished plus he had some injury concerns where he missed the
game also so it's still a little little bit of an unknown to say, okay, he should be drafted ahead of these
other two guys.
But again, you're buying into what he showed you in spurts, stretch, not spurts, a significant
stretch.
And then everybody coming back with the addition of Diggs, healthy Dell and an addition that's
as good, if not better than anybody else got offseason.
And I don't want to discount Stroud just because of the one big game.
Three of his first four games in the NFL, he was over 24 fantasy points per game.
And I know Adam will bring this up, but it makes a ton of sense.
What Joe Burrow has done in his career went healthy with a healthy T. Higgins
and a healthy Jamar Chase, and now Jermaine Burton,
who may be better than Tyler Boyd.
It's an ask, but it might happen.
Better than Stroud last year with what he's able to accomplish.
Well, 2022.
2022, in the nine games where the big three of Burrow, Chase, and Higgins
were healthy.
See you later, Jamie.
Thank you for hopping on.
He averaged 28.5 points per game.
So Burrow actually would have been my pick.
Most upside between Stroud, Prescott, and Joe Burrow,
I would have said Joe Burrow.
You know, he's just, look,
I know that Joe Burrow is a great quarterback,
and if those guys are healthy, I know what he can do.
I don't really have a lot of doubts about C.J. Stroud.
I believe in him.
But there is something to be said about having to do
it again. And sometimes it doesn't always work out. I mean, we all were expecting a big jump
from Baker Mayfield after a record-setting rookie season. Justin Herbert's had kind of an up and
down year after a record-setting rookie season, career. I mean, Herbert's great. You know, it's not like a great example, but, but it doesn't always work out that way. I have more faith in Burrow to hit that ceiling
than I do Stroud. Um, but that doesn't mean I don't have faith in Stroud. I just, I am a big
believer in Joe Burrow. I'm completely throwing out last year and, uh, you know, he's, he's Joe
Burrow. He's the man. And so is Chase and Higgins. So are.
I don't disagree with what you're saying.
And I think it is close between Burrow and Stroud. But I do think that I do wonder if Stroud just has a little bit more upside because his receiving core is deeper than it is for Burrow.
And Burrow obviously has a couple of injury issues of his own that he's got to deal with.
Okay.
Let's go to our next one here.
And Jamie was referring to this one.
Who has the most up?
This one we can zip right through.
No, no, no, we can't.
Anthony Richardson, Caleb Williams, Jaden Daniels.
The entirety of why we're drafting all
three of these quarterbacks is upside.
Two of them we've never seen play in the NFL.
We're seeing what we saw as
gospel from their college days, and Richardson's
played two games, two full
games in the NFL, four total. I
think Richardson's the one that is the most upside.
Okay.
I respect your opinion.
I was thinking about about this though.
Like I,
and I said this,
I think last week,
if Anthony Richardson had not played last year,
he'd probably be last on this list.
You know?
Yeah.
Like if he were a rookie this year,
you mean?
Yes.
He's got,
he's,
I think regarded as the worst prospect of
these three quarterbacks which is saying something for a guy who went fourth overall but as a thrower
i would agree anthony richardson caleb williams jayden daniels is who we're talking about here
is he a better runner than caleb williams well he's going to run more than caleb williams but
is he a better runner than jayden daniels i don't know. I mean, that's a wash, right? That's pretty much a toss-up.
I think what would give Richardson the edge for me is that he's just like a
phenomenal athlete with size.
And we know that Daniels is a good runner.
I don't think he's as good of a runner as Richardson.
I've watched them both.
I think that Richardson's probably just a little bit better.
All right.
And I know it's easy to say, oh Richardson's probably just a little bit better. All right.
And I know it's easy to say, oh yeah, Richardson, he's stronger.
And he just missed 13 games last year with a shoulder injury, which makes you a little bit worried about Daniels and whether or not he can hold up.
We've had that conversation.
Yes.
I think that Richardson has already shown us it's teeny tiny sample size, but two games
where he started and finished 28.3 fantasy points
averaged in those games. That's crazy upside. That's, that's the argument.
I know, but the argument is you're talking about, I mean, I would even say three games
because week two or whatever, when he scored like 17 points in a quarter, basically his upside was,
was unbelievable, but that's a really small sample size.
Caleb Williams has the,
has arguably the best receiving core in the NFC.
I mean,
it's,
it's up there,
right?
He's got that going for him.
They both,
I think have better supporting casts than Anthony Richardson.
I don't think this is as cut and dried.
I mean,
I get,
if I did a Twitter poll on this,
I think most people would say Richardson.
I get it.
I think so too.
I think I would probably say Richardson as well.
But I keep going back to,
should I be drafting Anthony Richardson
as a top five quarterback
when I can just take Jaden Daniels five rounds later?
That's part of this.
Have we seen Richardson go as a round five pick
top five pick
top five quarterback.
I didn't say round five, but
yes, I in our consensus
ranks. He's at 90.
Yeah, we have quarterbacks
standing. If I'm getting him in 90th overall,
I'm thrilled. We have
quarterbacks lower lower than
you know, the way they're going to get drafted.
The general public?
Sure.
All right.
You say Richardson.
That's fine.
I accept your response.
Last one.
A foursome.
Patrick Mahomes.
They're golfing.
Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson.
Who has the most upside?
Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, Jackson.
In golf?
Yeah.
Yeah, sure.
I think I would still lean toward Allen in the upside department
just because of how diabolical he is as a runner
and how strong his arm is
and just how dangerous he is of a stat producer.
He can get you 30-plus, no problem.
It's just a matter of does he have the talent around him to do it still.
And if he can cultivate it, if they can make that happen in Buffalo,
I'm going to feel pretty stupid not having him as my QB1.
And listen, all these guys have huge upside.
There's a reason why there's a clear-cut top four amongst the fantasy quarterbacks. but not having him as my QB one. And it's listen, all these guys have huge upside.
There's a reason why there's a clear cut top four amongst the fantasy quarterbacks.
I think Alan's the one that's got the most upside of the four.
I'm just a little bit nervous about whether or not he reaches it in his
first season without digs and without who's his number one receiver right
now.
Is it going to be Kincaid?
Is it Keon Coleman?
Is it Khalil Shakir?
I don't think he's got one.
And we just saw a year where Mahomes didn't necessarily have a studly number one receiver that he leaned on for big production week in and week out.
And he was averaging around like 21 fantasy points per game.
Oh, man, this is so funny because talk about these top four quarterbacks.
Who has the most upside?
Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, Jackson.
I think Jackson has maybe the least upside.
Is that because Derrick Henry's there?
And you're worried about the Henry effect?
I meant Josh Allen.
I think Allen maybe has the least upside,
which is crazy.
But I do think losing Diggs is a big deal.
I don't think that you can say that Allen has more upside than Hurts
because he's not going to blow away Hurts as a rusher.
In fact, Hurts might have more rushing statistics
in terms of yards plus touchdowns than Allen.
And then you can't look at their receiving cores
and be like, Allen
has more upside as a passer.
So I think, I don't, I would
not have answered Josh Allen. Of course,
I'm not going to say that you're dumb or you're wrong, or I'm not
going to call you an idiot like your t-shirt.
But I just
think that Hurts is like a better version
of Josh Allen now with this
extremely lackluster
receiving core, in my opinion.
I get that.
I get that.
Underwhelming receiving core.
How many rushing touchdowns for Jalen Hurts this year now that Saquon's there?
I'm still going to give him 10.
Okay.
Does he throw for as many touchdowns with Saquon barkley there that's a great question
and i i yeah the nitpicking is what we're just going to have to do with these four
because again you can make the case for all four of them to be the one with most upside
my answer is hertz and four four point, Mahomes in six point.
Okay.
Yeah.
And your answer is?
I respect that too, sir.
Thank you.
I respect you, Booker, man.
I think a lot of this is really just for fun.
You know, you don't have to. Sure, but here, how about this is the takeaway for this specific question.
Maybe you shouldn't be the first guy to take a quarterback in your fantasy
draft.
Maybe you should be the guy to take the third or fourth quarterback off the
board.
Yep.
You don't always have that.
One of these four super high upside passers.
You don't always have that luxury.
Okay.
So realistically forget about our drafts when they go in round four,
let's say you're at the two,
three turn or something like that.
Or let's say you get into round three.
You think,
you think there's any chance we won't have a quarterback in the first two
rounds?
I've already done a couple of mocks with our audience,
by the way.
Thanks everybody.
Who's emailed in.
I've gotten every single email you're on the list.
You're on the list.
I,
I quarterbacks are sliding.
They're not going sliding they're not going
they're not going early okay so let's say i'm kind of proud of the audience for that one
yeah let's say that um that uh there's no quarterbacks taken in the first two rounds
round three you're you got the third pick of round three you're not going to go you're not
going to get you know there's a decent chance that you're not going to get, you know, there's a decent chance that you're
not going to get any of the top four in the fourth round. So, and that's where the earlier conversation
about Stroud, Dak, Burrow, and Anthony Richardson thrown in there comes into play. Maybe that's the
group to target because you're getting them even later. And their, their downside is, is larger than the
first four, but their upside maybe isn't quite as high, but it's close. All right, Dave, we are out
of here. Thanks to Dave Richard. Thanks to Jamie. Dave and Jamie did this show early for me. So I
appreciate that. Um, and, uh, Jamie had to run. He wasn't being rude or anything. So thank you to
both of you for accommodating and to Tom Schaefer as well.
I thought they just called him Tom.
That was weird.
All right, we'll talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football Tomorrow.