Fantasy Football Today - First Half Heroes You Forgot About: Finding Draft Day Bargains

Episode Date: April 15, 2020

Today we are deep-diving into the first half studs from 2019 to find draft day value. The consensus QB pick is Matthew Stafford, who was on pace to finish as QB4 through 9 weeks. Is Stafford the best late-round QB to target? (3:00) ... We review other quarterbacks who dominated in early 2019 (11:45), including Russell Wilson, who has a shot at QB1... Moving on to RBs (21:25), what do David Johnson and James Conner have in common? ... At WR, people forget that Tyler Lockett was a monster to begin 2019, on pace to be WR5. Is Lockett the best value of the WRs, or can a case be made for Cooper Kupp? (41:03) ... Next, the tight end debate (54:40) comes down to Austin Hooper vs. Evan Engram, who both excelled to start 2019 ... We finish by answering your podcast review questions (58:13), including dynasty rule suggestions and Mike Evans, Derrick Henry & Tyreek Hill trade talk ... Email us at [e-mail] and tweet questions using #AskFFT. Follow the new FFT Twitch channel! https://www.twitch.tv/FFToday 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @YardsPerGretch, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. What we're going to do right here is go back.

How far are we going back? Way back. All the way back to the fall of 2019. Yes, it might seem like centuries ago since everybody's staying at home, hanging out at home. Unless you're an essential worker and we're thinking of you if you are. But we're going to go back and look at the first half of the 2019 NFL season, the fantasy football season, to remind you of some players who may have done well and you may want to go back and draft. And there is one certain player that I cannot wait to add to my team.

Welcome into this edition of Fantasy Football Today. I'm Dave Richard. With me is Heath Cummings, Ben Gretsch, Ben Schrager. We've got Chris Towers producing. So it's a whole motley crew of folks here on the pod. But first, this question, and I'm going to throw this one out first to Schrager, then to Ben Gretsch. Heath, you can't answer. What do Leonardo da Vinci, Seth Rogen, Emma Watson, Emma Thompson, Jason Sehorne, Antonio Camarte, and Daryl Williams of the Kansas City Chiefs all have in common. I'm going to go with the fact that it's their birthday today because you did not ask Heath

and that's the thing that Heath is celebrating today. What do you think, Ben Gretch? I had absolutely no way to connect these people together, so I really like Schrager's answer right now. They all share a birthday with Heath Cummings. Congratulations, Heath. You made it to your 45th birthday. You're smoking brisket. You're smoking

bacon. You're joining us on the pod. Happy birthday, my dude. Let's clarify. I'm still younger than you. I will always be younger than you. It is not my 45th birthday, but I'd be okay if it was. I was thinking about it last night as I went to bed, and year 40 was about as good as I could ask for. I'm just anticipating 41 is going to be that good as well. So you are 41, and I'm still the old man of the podcast.

I guess actually that was just year 41 that I had. I'd never thought about that before. But when you turn 41, you're finishing your 41st year. Correct. So I'm beginning year 42 now. Congratulations. I said that wrong. Year 40 kind of sucked.

Year 41 was pretty good for the most part. Well, I'm glad you're here. I'm glad you're celebrating your birthday with us. That would mean something. I would be taking the day off and probably crying into a pillow about how old I was getting and how ugly I am. On top of talking about first half heroes, we're going to finish the show with Apple podcast review mailbag questions. So you put in some questions when you reviewed our podcast and gave us five stars. We're going to answer those questions.

And yeah, let's talk about these first half heroes that we're talking about. Matthew Stafford. Does everybody remember who Matthew Stafford is? Because he went on the shelf with a bad back injury, missed the entire second half of last season. Remember, we were treated to Jeff Driscoll and David Blau quarterbacking the Detroit Lions. Those were good times. Thanksgiving. Remember that?

That was something. But I feel like a lot of people might have forgotten what Matthew Stafford was doing before he got hurt. Here's what he was doing. He was on pace. Bless you. He was on pace to finish as QB 4. 24.8 points per game.

Where do you guys stand on Stafford now? He's in my top 12. He's in my top 12 he's in he's in my top 12 I think the best um testimony I could give for Matthew Stafford is in my projections I have him like within three or four points of a group of old quarterbacks Matt Ryan Matthew Stafford Aaron Rogers Drew Brees and I will guarantee you that Ryan Rogers and Brees are going to get drafted much much earlier in your drafts than Matthew Stafford is. There will be drafts where Stafford isn't even drafted.

So, yeah, I absolutely love him as a late-round quarterback. If you're not getting one of the elite guys, just wait until the double-digit rounds and take Stafford. He had three games with over 30 fantasy points, Ben Gretsch. He was pretty good. Yeah, he's uh I actually disagree with Heath I don't think there will be a lot of leagues where he doesn't get drafted I think we're inevitably going to see him rise up boards he should uh I think he's the perfect poster boy for this episode because he is someone that everyone forgot about his entire uh throw depth profile adjusted in 2019 after we no longer had theoretic and we no longer had golden tate in detroit and his top two receivers were downfield

guys in galladay and marvin jones and then also t.j hawkinson who can push the field but um pulling up the numbers right now he had a 7.1 average throw depth which is below average in 2018 um 8.0 or lower in every season prior to that going back to 2013 but in 2019 it jumped all the way to 10.6 it was i believe the highest number in the entire league and that was the um the the complete change in in his yardage upside he, I think was on pace to go well over 5,000 yards. He was, he was really good last year and he's going to be really good again this year.

And I think everyone's just kind of, uh, sleeping on that early this off season because he didn't finish a full 16 games. He was on pace for 4,998 passing yards. So almost 5,000 yards, but he would but he was also on pace for 38 touchdowns, which probably would have been a good thing. And he only had five interceptions in eight games,

so he was really rocking. But you notice the trend with Stafford, and veterans of fantasy football will know this for sure, where one year he's amazing. He pops up huge numbers. Everybody loves him. The following year he kind of trails off. For example, 2015, 4,200 yards, 32 touchdowns.

Amazing. The year after, 4,300 yards, 24 touchdowns. Year after that, back up. 4,400 yards, 29 touchdowns. The year after that, now we're on 2018, down to 3,700 yards and 21 touchdowns. And yes, he played 16 games every single one of those seasons. And then last year he was on pace to really ramp up. So I'm a little nervous about Matthew Stafford and this whole up one year. He's great. One year, he sucks that trend continuing. And I also wonder

if the lions are really going to finally address what they're doing with their run game. And they're going to add another running back and they're going to try and take pressure off of Matthew Stafford by having a two-headed three-headed run game to try and and you know create that type of presence for their offense I'm wondering if if if they draft a running back if their defense gets better in the draft as well do you look at Matthew Stafford as maybe a guy that you're not as excited about because there's a chance he could really let you down? I think the biggest thing with him is the price is going to be so low. I think in some weeks he may not be drafted, but even if he is drafted, it's going to be after the 10th round.

And if you're nervous, pair him with a guy like Roethlisberger. Pair him with Daniel Jones, guys who we know have big ceilings, and maybe Stafford is great and maybe he busts, but it doesn't matter because you didn't spend any draft capital on the guy. I think as far as the every other year thing, we got it. We got to look at the fact that he was in a new offense last year with Darrell Bevel as well. And they have that continuity.

He has the same receivers this year. I don't see any reason why what he did in the first half of last year in terms of the way statistically his his downfield passing profile changed i don't i don't see any reason that won't carry over and again i'm buying him in every draft every mock we do i get i get him i've taken him in two startups this year he's only 32 i believe he has had some injury issues but there's a lot of you know ross rothlisberger's 38 rivers is i think 38 breeze and brady are. Guys like Matt Ryan, I think, is about 35. He's not old compared to some of those guys.

So, yeah, I think Stafford has plenty of good years ahead of him still. Could he be a top 10 quarterback this year? I think he will be. I think he should be ranked there. Got it. Schreger, was that like Tweety Bird I heard in the background while you were talking? I wanted to jump in. This is Chris Towers, producer for the Fantasy Football Today podcast.

A.K.A. Mr. Clean, by the way. The guy looks like he could rough up a whole gang of scallywags or something like that. You look amazing, Chris. Thank you. I really did want to just praise, whether it's Dave or Ben Schrager, they're both recording outside. You guys can't see this if you're listening, but it's Dave or Ben Schrager, they're both recording outside. You guys can't see this if you're listening, but it's delightful. They're both sitting on their patios.

And there were just birds singing. It brought a whole new fresh air into the podcast. I really appreciate it. Can we make that a regular occurrence? I would be on my patio as well. I have a bird that in the mornings, starting about 5 a.m. some days, some days all night long,

makes the most god-awful sound you ever made. I will admit, during this time, I've gotten a little more connected to nature and really enjoyed all the sounds of the birds. This bird is definitively some sort of demon that is only put there to terrorize our neighborhood. And it would be frightening, frankly, if you heard the sounds that were happening on my patio. Okay, so it's not your bird. It's not like you went to Noah's Ark and bought a bird and put it in a cage in your house.

This is a bird living in your neighborhood. This is a bird living in my neighborhood across the pond the pond as they say uh you generally very high in a trees i assume because people have tried to murder it um yeah it's it's awful i'd like to hear this bird we've got a woodpecker that bangs on the corner of our gutter every morning at about seven and it wakes me and it's a terrible sound as well and what i have to do is literally run outside into my backyard and go and i watch the bird fly away so woody is very scared of me i don't know why he's pecking at my gutter uh everybody get ready for the debut of the fft twitch channel on Tuesday April 21st 7 p.m eastern it's me it's Jamie it's Heath and Adam sorry Ben sorry Chris we'll be broadcasting live from our

new Twitch channel I don't know what it'll look like or sound like or be like but it'll probably be awesome and you'll probably get some really good fantasy advice and you'll probably be able to ask your questions as well we We'll preview the NFL draft. We'll go through the quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends. So if you're looking for more of a fantasy angle on that, Twitch is the place to go on Tuesday, April 21st at 7 p.m. And yes, answering questions will be a big part of what we do. Go to twitch.tv slash FF today or search FF today on Twitch to follow us ahead of time.

We'll also tweet out the link. So I know everybody's really busy these days. It'll be Tuesday at seven o'clock. The tweet will be out there. You'll remember it and you'll follow us to Twitch and you'll see our faces. You'll hear our birds and we'll answer your fantasy questions and we'll get you ready for the 2020 draft also if you want even more fantasy help ask alexa or your google home to play fantasy football today you can even start and stop fft episodes with your voice you'll feel like darth vader all right we already talked about matthew staff. Let's go on to more forgotten first half heroes.

Yeah, I actually practiced that. Heath, you haven't talked much about Gardner Minshew in the last 30 minutes. Why don't you go ahead and tell us why he's one of your not forgotten first half heroes? He is a forgotten first half hero because, and I think Adam Azer's reaction to our last super flex mock when I drafted Minshew as my second quarterback really shows how forgotten he is Adam acted like he wasn't sure that was a good option as a second quarterback this is a guy who in the first half of last year was the number 12 quarterback on a per game basis last year was really pretty close to number 13 or 14, top 15 guy, I believe.

And so, like, sure, maybe he's risky as your starter. Maybe you should take two quarterbacks if you want to go that route and play him and Stafford and see which one's better on a week-to-week basis. That's fine. But to view him as someone that you're not even sure is a number two quarterback is just forgetting how good he was last year. He was definitely good. I think the reason why I'm not viewing him as,

as one of those priority number two quarterbacks is because I'm not sure if he's going to have that chance. You know, the draft is coming. Trades can happen. Jaguars might add a veteran quarterback to pair with Minshew, or they might draft a guy because they might not be sold on Minshew. Although Peter King in his Tuesday morning in America quarterback story thing that he

has been doing for years. And I think it's on Mondays, not Tuesdays. Yeah. He thinks that Gardner Minshew does have a real shot to be the long term. I wonder where that connection came from, Heath. As I can tell you, Ben Schrager and i hung out with peter king and gardner minshu at a brewery in miami over super bowl weekend you don't say i feel like that's been mentioned before did say that gardner minshu um wants to make prove to the team that it's not just

a minshu mania thing it's not just the mustache thing It's not just the fun clothes and certainly all that stuff's great for marketing and making money But that he is working his tail off To uh to show them he's a real nfl quarterback 20 or more fantasy points in six of his first eight games and that includes the game where he took over for nick foals late In week one. He's he's been fun and productive. He just had a really rough second half, although week 17 of last year, 29 fantasy points that tied for his high on the year. Russell Wilson.

I don't think anybody's forgotten about Russell Wilson, but you may have forgotten that he was the QB1 through nine weeks last season. Yeah, it wasn't Lamar Jackson. It was Russell Wilson. 29 fantasy points per game, six points per touchdown leagues. He was on fire. Ben, could he be the number one quarterback in 2020?

Well, it all comes down to pass attempts, like we've always talked about. In the first half of last year, he got, it looks like, three games where he threw at least 40 passes. I think that was through the first half of last year he got it looks like three games where he threw at least 40 passes or i think that was through the first nine games um and that's not common in wilson's career if you go back through his game log he doesn't hit 40 pass attempts very frequently between the scrambling and the run heavy offense that he's always played in he's talked a little bit this offseason about wanting to to be able to pass forward have the team lean on him a little bit more. We'll see if Seattle goes that route. There's obviously whispers that they're going to be adding another running back.

But the huge trait from Wilson throughout his career is just how efficient he is. And I think if you do draft him wherever you get him, you know you're getting a high-end player from an efficiency standpoint. You don't know if the volume is going to be there. But that basically means he has a strong floor to be from an efficiency standpoint. You don't know if the volume is going to be there, but that basically means he has a strong floor to be a QB1. He's never going to lose his job. And then the ceiling is there if he does throw 550 attempts, which he did in 2016 and 2017.

He only threw 427 in 2018. He was back at 516 last year and threw for the most yards he had since 2016. So it's just a matter of whether or not he'll throw enough. I think he'll throw plenty. I had to study the Seahawks. I wrote all the player outlooks for Seattle for our magazine. And one of the things that struck me,

and there are a lot of things that struck me about this team, especially when you go back and you watch Wilson play, he's just amazing. He's a magician i think everybody knows that too but this defense doesn't have a lot going for it the pass rush is really kind of risky the linebackers are still awesome the secondary has a couple of question marks in it and their their schedule is loaded with a lot of high profile offenses. I think the Seahawks could be in a lot of high scoring games in 2020. I think Russ is a great fantasy quarterback.

If you can find him as your, you know, I have a hard time for now putting him ahead of Kyler, who's my three and Dak, who's my four. But there's a, there's a part of me that wants to almost pass on the top four quarterbacks and really target Russell Wilson in round six. And that might mean round four or five in the everyman's leagues that are out there. But I kind of want to target him, and I feel like there's the best value there for him. There is, and his upside, I think, is the same as Kyler Murray's. But there's not as much hype. Kyler's price is going to as Kyler Murray's, but there's not as much hype.

Kyler's price is going to end up being higher by August if it's not higher right now. So I like targeting Russell instead of Kyler. Did you go on Sideshragger? Hold on. I did. There was a big seagull here, which doesn't make much sense because I'm in the desert, but I did have to get away from the seagull. I don't want you to die, so good move. There have been a couple of things. I want to put some respect on Russell Wilson's name Dave you said that you couldn't get to the point of putting Russell ahead of Kyler for now for now and and Ben Schrager said That he thinks that Russell has as much upside as Kyler

These states are well, she lately backwards. Okay, Russell Wilson is one of the best quarterbacks of his generation. He has been one of the best fantasy quarterbacks in the last half of a decade. We're not sure if Kyler Murray has as much upside as Russell Wilson. We should be having a hard time putting Kyler Murray ahead of Russell Wilson. Kyler Murray has done nothing for us to be talking about putting Russell Wilson on the same level as him. Fair, very fair point. And you know,

you sound silly or I'm the one that sounds silly when, when I talk about putting Kyler Murray ahead of Russell Wilson, but it's the rushing totals and it's the expected uptick in, in passing efficiency that we're expecting from Kyler Murray. And by the way, Kyler Murray was a first half hero last season. He was off to a great start I don't have it in front of me. I'll get it in a minute. I've got it right here in the first nine games He was the number 11 quarterback

through week nine only 90 I'm sorry 88 fantasy points behind Russell Wilson You know what though if you extend it two more weeks, which this is why we're not talking about Kyler Murray as a first half hero, because in weeks 10 and 11, he really caught it. It was really weeks 9, 10, 11. He caught on fire. He had at least 26 fantasy points in each of those games.

And if you include those two weeks, he's averaging 21.4 on the season. So, no, he wasn't anywhere near the pace of Russell Wilson, but he was starting to show what he could do. And then they had a buy. And then I don't know if it's a rookie wall or just the offense kind of fell apart. Kyler Murray had a terrible finish. I still love that upside for Murray.

And I think that Murray does have a slightly better chance because of the rushing totals to finish with better fantasy numbers than Russell Wilson. And if you disagree, then obviously you should go and draft Russell Wilson ahead of Kyler Murray on draft day. And whichever one you get, maybe you like them both, whichever one that's laying around for you in that round four to six range, depending on how your league feels about quarterbacks, you should go and grab. But Russell Wilson clearly was somebody who was outstanding

in the first half of last season. And look, he finished as a stud quarterback as well. I think he's been a top 10 quarterback all but one of the last six seasons, something like that. He's been really, really good. So nothing to really fear if you make Wilson your quarterback.

Hashtag Acer fantasy tip. All right, Schrager. Tom Brady finished as a top 10 quarterback through the first nine weeks of the season. He averaged just under 21 fantasy points per game, did it with the Patriots, didn't have an amazing receiving course, still found a way to do it. But you saw him as a first half hero. Yeah, it's more of a reminder that he's not a steal if we're thinking that he's top 12. It should be expected that he is top 12 this year.

I mean, he was top 10 in the first half last year he did have the most attempts and completions of all quarterbacks in that period but it doesn't mean he can't handle the huge Arians workload that we're expecting his yards per attempt were the lowest since 2002 so we expect that to go up so that's just another case for Tom Brady as a top 10 quarterback and it's not crazy for any of us to say it and people once the Tom Brady move happened it was like can he handle a big workload and it's yes and he definitely did it in the first half so that was the reminder there it's not crazy to drop tom brady as a top 10 quarterback and i don't think anybody here disagrees ben gretch heath anything to add with tom brady nope does anybody see tom brady as a top Does anybody see Tom Brady as a top three quarterback?

Could he finish as a top three fantasy quarterback in 2020? I think he could. I mean, I don't think it's likely, but James Winston was last year in the same offense, and he threw a ton of interceptions. If Brady's far more efficient than Winston, he has the weapons. I think he could. Let's move right along to running backs and uh David Johnson continues to be a name that people kind of shrivel at you know they make that face like

they just ate four lemons but he's in Houston now but last year when he was in Arizona his first half was pretty damn good he was RB10 in PPR through the first nine weeks of the season but now he's on Houston we we know the texans or i don't know how to feel about the texans offense and whether we should be you know moderately excited or like hashtag puking over this offense but he was a first half hero last year ben grach yeah and really the first six games before that weird week i believe it was in new york against the giants where he started but only played three snaps and Chase Edmonds just completely went off. But in the first six games, and we referenced this a lot, David Johnson was good early last season, but let's put some numbers on it.

He averaged five receptions per game, over 100 total yards, and over 20 PPR points, even as he wasn't efficient running the ball. He had the perfect pass catching and goal line workload, even though he didn't score a ton of touchdowns either in that stretch. But was that kind of high value touch back that I'm often talking about? There's still upside here. I mean, he's got to be more efficient running the ball. And he was certainly hurt later in the season. that type of receiving a workload and if he can get it in houston where i'm a little bit more skeptical that he will but if he can he certainly i mean averaging over 20 ppr points per game over a six week stretch is not i think how anyone remembers david johnson's 2019 season I am, uh, I'm looking to see that just how, how used Texans running backs have been in the Bill O'Brien era.

And they've been used a lot. Uh, they finished in the top 12 and rush attempts each of the past six seasons under Bill O'Brien. There were four times where they were inside the top six. O'Brien loves to run the football. It's a clear staple of what he does. It's just a matter of if David Johnson can be efficient with the opportunity that he gets. And it is worth recognizing that they've been in the

top 10 or top six in rush attempts, but a lot of those have been Deshaun Watson rush attempts as well. They're not all running back rush attempts. What's going to be really interesting, I think, with Johnson, and I don't necessarily disagree with Ben I mean, I don't think he really has I don't know that he has top 10 upside unless they're just going to completely Disregard Duke Johnson who's very good as a pass catcher and has been used in that role But it's that it's the combination of and it's not it's kind of like with Devin Singletary in Buffalo is are there enough? Targets for David Johnson and then what percentage of the rush attempts and rushing touchdowns is the Shawn Watson going to take from David Johnson?

I I think he's a fine and borderline number two guy that has maybe the upside to be a top 15 top top 18 running back in PPR But they had a top 15 top top 18 running back in ppr but um They had a lot of bodies all of a sudden in houston I mean too many receivers too many tight ends and now david johnson and duke johnson that kind of do the same thing Birthday boy if he's sitting there in round five in a ppr league. Are you rushing to get him? Are you okay taking him? Are you going to pass on him? round five

seems about right. I was trying to look through where I, I, I've got him in the sixties. So I guess I technically have him as a round six pick, but I'm okay with him in round five. Nick Chubb was amazing in the first half of last year. I don't know how many, I hope you haven't forgotten because remember there was no Kareem Hunt in Cleveland. Chubb was just getting all kinds of fantasy numbers the first half of last season. He finishes RB5 in PPR. It might have been even higher in non-PPR. He sits as a top 12 running back for us

all, or at least in the consensus. I believe he's still all in our top 12 heading into 2020 Ben Gretsch Is Nick Chubb can what does Nick Chubb have to do to get back to that top five range? Is it really just you know, Kareem hunts gotta just not be a factor for him to get there Yeah, I think the targets are gonna be tough, especially now they added Austin Hooper Tight end and running back targets can kind of overlap a little bit. A lot of them for both positions come in the short area of the field. And so now Cleveland has multiple tight ends, assuming that they keep David Njoku.

And they have Kareem Hunt and Chubb. And you'll remember late last season, they basically weren't using the tight end. It was Odo Beckham, Jarvis Landry, and the two running backs. And they were doing a lot of two running back sets. And so now we're probably going to see multiple tight end sets with Kevin Stefanski taking over the head coaching job he was in Washington in Minnesota last year and the Vikings had one I believe the highest rate of of two tight end sets in a league last year so we're definitely going to see some different formations it's going to be hard for his receiving but one thing I wanted to note with Chubb, had 19.7 PPR points per game in the first half, and it fell to 13 in the second half.

And a lot of that has been attributed to his receiving role, where he went from 3.1 catches per game to 1.4 in the second half after Hunt was back. So, cut by more than half. But he also only scored twice in the second half of the season after he had six scores in the first eight games. I don't think we should project him for four touchdowns over a full season. I don't think that second half scoring pace is reasonable. So I think one of the big things he needs to do, and I think he will do, is just score more, even if the receiving isn't there. And if he can do a little bit better than 1.4 catches per game i don't think that final eight is really his um his ceiling i actually think it was kind of a lower outcome with hunt back and hunt will be back again in 2020 so i i think chubb has some room to grow

from the way that he closed the season statistically i agree um i think the touchdowns can be there for him and look he and this is just something that makes me feel a little bit better when I do draft Chubb in any league. In that second half of the season with Kareem Hunt, he averaged 18 carries per game. That's still a nice chunk of work. Not a lot of catches. Ben, you said at 1.4 grabs per game. Maybe that goes up a tad.

I don't think it goes up a lot. But I like that they added Jack Conklin to the offensive line. I am hopeful that the Browns draft another offensive lineman in the NFL draft and that offensive line becomes a strength. And if they use two tight end sets, that kind of gives them an advantage because it's telling the defense, you don't know what we can do. And if they're going to throw the ball, they clearly have two tight ends that can catch it. And all of a sudden their 12 personnel can be dangerous. It's basically like four wide receivers out there. But they can also run behind those guys.

And if that's the case, then you're talking about, like, you know, hopefully five competent offensive linemen plus a couple of extra blockers to help give Nick Chubb a chance to gain more yardage before contact or even break into the second, third level of defenses. So I don't think you can rely on Chubb for big catches, but the fact that he had 18 carries per game with Kareem Hunt on the field last year leads me to believe that he can still have that this year. I don't think Stefanski is going to look at Nick Chubb and say, you're just so-so, let's get Kareem Hunt in there. I think they're going to run the ball a lot. I think it's actually going to hurt Odell Beckham and maybe even Baker Mayfield as well, that the Browns will be running so much. But yes,

an amazing first half for him. An amazing first half for James Conner. We'll stay in the AFC North. Conner was RB8 in PPR. Really did get off to a good start. This made me kind of think twice about Conner because I'm nervous to draft him now. I'm assuming that the Steelers are going to add another running back in the NFL draft. And if they do, what does that say about Connor being that lead guy for the Steelers? Can he still do it if they add another running back? And even if they don't, might they take the approach of, well, we don't want him to get beat up. He suffered so many injuries last year and the year before he dealt with stuff. Maybe James Conner might max out at 15 touches per game.

Schrager, what do you think? Yeah, I mean, I don't know that they're going to pull back his workload. I mean, he had 18 touches per game last season and over 20 the previous season when he was a stud with Big Ben. I'm really excited if they don't add someone before round four in the draft. I mean, he didn't run well last year, but he was also on pace for 66 catches, which is a great floor. His backups were okay when he was hurt. Benny Snell had three really good games, three games, and Jalen Samuels was hard. So if they don't draft the running back early, I love James Conner as a RB2, and he's going

as a low-end RB2 in all of our drafts. So the Steelers only have one pick in the top 100 in the NFL draft. It's 49. So unless they move down and acquire more picks, that would have to be the selection that they use on a running back that would legitimately threaten James Conner. You know, maybe there's a chance that at 102, I mean, do you really think that someone like Cam Akers or Clyde Edwards-Alaire lasts that long? I don't think so. I think they'll be gone by the

time the Steelers get to 102nd overall on draft day. So maybe there's a chance here for Conner. Maybe I'm not giving him enough credit. Maybe I'm just too worried about him splitting in Pittsburgh. And as for the catches, I wonder how much of that was a byproduct of Roethlisberger's hurt, the Steelers have to dumb down their offense for Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges, and maybe that's why he had all the catches. I know he can catch the ball. What round, Schrager, what round are you looking,

would you be thrilled to get James Conner in? Oh, in round four, I love him, but round five is when I'm thrilled to get james connor in oh and round four i love him but round five is when i'm thrilled to get james connor would anybody consider it's worth noting that there's a lot of buzz from the beats that they are going to add that back it doesn't seem to make any sense to us in fantasy land but um there's a lot of buzz that they want to do that and i'm concerned that they don't think connor can be an ever down workhorse he's kind of thrust into that everdown role when when lady on bell held out two years ago and connor himself was kind of a late round pick so it might be the case that from a real football

perspective they don't necessarily think that he's their future and he's more of a backup which doesn't again doesn't make a lot of sense to us in terms of fantasy football because of how productive he was he also was in the final year of his contract so if the steelers go and add another running back and it's a nice young back that they can groom to be the lead guy in 2021 they don't have to pay james connor they don't have to worry about all the injuries that he deals with i know that they they accept injuries as part of football every coaching staff does but i think that they really value guys who can stay on the field. That was one of the reasons why Le'Veon was so beloved and trusted in that offense. Ezekiel Elliott was the guy I picked as a first half hero.

I don't really think we have to go into it that much. He's a top three fantasy running back. I've got him at number two. I think he can be just as good as he was last year, if not a little bit better. We'll see what the offensive line looks like. I know Travis Frederick is gone, but we don't have to spend a lot of time on Ezekiel Elliott. He did finish as RB6 last year. I know, shocking. Heath is going to mention Austin Eckler as his first half hero at running

back. He was the RB4 in PPR. He was helped, of course, by those first four games without Melvin Gordon and finished as RB6. Another first half hero, Austin Eckler. And you know those first four games, no Melvin Gordon in LA. He was a monster. He was RB4 in PPR through the first nine weeks of the season. And he is a top six consensus PPR running back for us all going into 2020, partially because he was awesome last year, partially because Melvin Gordon is no longer there. Heath, you have been Mr. Austin Eckler man.

That's your official new nickname, by the way. But talk to me about how high you will draft Eckler. Well, I think in our most recent PPR draft, I took him 10th. And that was my question in the postmortem from Ben Kretsch asking about that. Yeah, I think people may forget just how good Eckler was without Gordon. And the fact that even through eight weeks, when half of those games were with Gordon, he was on pace for 1,500 yards and 16 touchdowns. Now, I don't think he'd be quite that good.

I understand that Tyrod Taylor is probably going to hurt the pass volume just a little bit. But the fact that there's no Melvin Gordon is probably going to help the pass volume. And I think both Eckler and Jordan Howard and some other running backs in that type of situation, even if their teams do draft running backs, are going to have a much stronger hold on the job at the start of the year than they would have with a normal offseason. The Chargers do have three picks in the top 71, including sixth overall. There is zero chance that they will use a running back at sixth overall.

But maybe that second round pick, 37th overall, could be a running back. 71st could be one, depending on how the other running back slide is there anybody that's nervous about austin eckler and maybe he doesn't see him doing what he did last year now that he could be the primary guy for the chargers definitely um 9.2 yards per target phenomenal number 87 or 85% catch rate, phenomenal number. He was great, and he's very good. I really like Austin Ekeler as a player, and he's kind of the perfect pass catching and goal line back

that I was talking about earlier. He's been a guy I've had in leagues for several years. I had him in several leagues last year, and it was awesome to have him on my team last year. I don't think he's going to be able to do it again in 2020 I think both the combination of probably somebody else being a little bit more involved than anyone anyone was early in last season but more importantly the change in quarterbacks and it's not so much hating on Tyrod Taylor's impact on him because Taylor has thrown to backs more than most scrambling quarterbacks it's more that Philip

Rivers was the perfect quarterback and remains a really great quarterback for running backs. He gets through his reads in a way, like people have knocks on rivers, but he gets through his reads at a pretty high level. And he gets to the check down when it's there. And he puts his running backs in positions to run after the catch. And then also likes to do that at the goal line in a way that almost no other quarterback in the league does his running backs have caught a lot of touchdowns over the last five to seven years you just don't see that in a lot of offenses something we used to talk about andrew luck he was a guy who did that a little bit um i just don't see a scenario where eckler's the value

of his touches doesn't drop significantly which which I think add in some regression concerns. I think it's really hard to just project him to how good he was last year to a 16-game pace of that. Well, no, if we did that, he'd be the number one running back. If we did what he was without Melvin Gordon over a 16-game pace. Yeah, I meant that like even the full season line though. And I don't think I, I,

I agree with Ben about the volume concerns with Phillip rivers. Melvin Gordon was not a particularly efficient running back on a per target basis. He was, he had a couple of okay years and a couple of below average years past running backs with Phillip rivers have seen a lot of Targets, but they haven't produced austin eckler like efficiency and no he probably won't be 9.2 Like he was last year, but he was 8.0 his first year and 7.6 his second year. He's been

Just historically one of the best pass catching running backs on a per target basis And the other running backs that played with Phillip Rivers were not that efficient. So I, I, I'm not projecting to be as efficient as he was with rivers, but I do still think he'll be one of the most efficient running backs. Two quick thoughts.

Number one, it would be so stupid of the chargers to just forget about Eckler as a receiver. They, they, they can't possibly do that. I am sure they're going to, no, I know you're not. But what you're saying will drive home my second point. But I would imagine that the Chargers are still going to find ways to utilize Eckler just makes me want to draft Nike mines that much more and then I think that will be a great test case because naheem Hines has been below average

every year on per target basis and true had a pretty decent volume at times and just really not done much with it and so it will be interesting to see I key won't he might be average now that would be great. Right. That would actually be great for him. And we know that he's locked into that role in Indianapolis, assuming they don't add another running back. But Frank Reich talked about it last year, about how much he loved using Naheem Hines in that passing downs,

hurry up type of situation. Maybe he continues to do that. Maybe he gets a chance to get crazy reception totals. Keep him in mind for the back half of your PPR drafts this fall. Jordan Howard might be a good first half running back this year. Now that he's in Miami, we don't know who he's going to share the backfield with. I doubt it will be Kalen Balazs and Patrick Laird, but he was RB28 in PPR. He was higher than that in non-PPR through the first nine weeks of last season, Heath. What are you thinking about Howard in the first half of 2020?

Is he strictly just a zero RB target, or could there be something there where, even if the Dolphins add a rookie, Jordan Howard can be a helpful part of your fantasy squad? Well, I think the Dolphins are almost certainly going to add a rookie. And I do think he could still help your fantasy squad like he was For half of last year holding off mile sanders. Maybe that was just the eagles being Not smart, but he was really efficient when they were giving him the football. Also. He was just good Um, I believe he was running back 19 the first eight weeks

so I don't know if maybe they had their week nine by or what it was, but I think he could very easily be a top 25 running back this year. That's what he's been pretty much every time he's been given the opportunity. Now, if the dolphins use a first round pick on a running back, that changes. If they take one of the top five running backs, that probably changes. But again, I think it will be difficult for a running back to take that week one job away from him over this offseason. He averaged 10.4 non-PPR fantasy points per game in the first nine weeks of last season. And overall in the year, he was top 20 in consistency in non-PPR. This is definitely somebody to watch for as a good value at running back on draft day, depending on what happens with the rest of the backfield in Miami.

Obviously, if nothing happens with the backfield, then Jordan Howard's value might shoot up. Maybe he even drafted him to be a low-end number two running back to begin the season. And maybe that carries through well through the midpoint of the year. Yeah, he was one of the first people that came to mind for this, but I didn't put him down because he did. And also for that piece that I wrote on the site about veterans who could be impacted by the draft.

Everyone's mocking the Dolphins to take a running back. If they don't, I mean, they paid Jordan Howard a solid chunk of guaranteed money. And he was a thousand yard rusher on average over his first three seasons with the Bears before obviously getting hurt a little bit last year. He's been productive, like he said. And he's not very old. I know we think of him as one of those older running backs but i don't think i don't know his age off the top of my 25 yeah yeah yeah he's very young it's perfect actually uh and the dolphins have five picks within the top 60 on draft day so plenty of ammo if they so choose

to draft a running back that could impact jordan. The player who I thought of, Ben, when it came to this assignment in the first half of last year was Tyler Lockett. And Lockett was a madman in the first half of last season. He was actually wide receiver five in PPR through the first nine weeks of the season. He was unstoppable. He had some amazing numbers. His efficiency was great uh see russell wilson was playing great we already talked about him as a first half hero tyler lockett was as well and then that injury came uh against san francisco remember he spent a night in the hospital his numbers really weren't the same over the rest of the regular season but then he kind of bounced back in the playoffs and looked like his old self and if he continues to make plays and more importantly continues to be that target that guy and it's negligible whether

he will be that guy for seattle for russell wilson because dk meccaf should progress in his second season but he he stands out to me as someone who could finish as a top 12 receiver this year i've moved him up in my rankings on the, remembering what he did in those first nine games, realizing that the Seattle defense might not be so good and thinking that the Seahawks are going to be in a lot of high scoring games. I want pieces of that offense. I want Tyler Lockett on my squad. Schrager, you also, and Heath also listed Tyler Lockett as a first half hero, but Schrager kick us off. What did you, what did you love about Lockett? I mean, it's two straight top 15 seasons, so it's not like he hasn't done it before. And it's the price tag. I mean, in our 0.5 PPR mock, he went before Terry McLaurin,

T.Y. Hilton, and Stefan Diggs. I think he's a much higher level than all three of those guys. The first half showed how much upside he has, but I think he's a lock for top 15 Even if the targets aren't that high because he's done it in his career without a ton of targets So DK Metcalf can step up and Tyler Lockett can still be a top 15 guy So I love him with the end of round four price tag that he's having a lot of our mocks Yeah, I think like this has been Basically the Austin Eckler of wide receivers. One of the most efficient wide receivers in the NFL with not enough volume until last year. He got the volume, and I would have expected, honestly, a bigger drop in efficiency.

And we didn't see that much. And it kind of looks like if he hadn't suffered that injury against san francisco Which really shut kind of slowed him down He he may have been a top Seven or eight wide receiver at the end of last year I do think he has that type of upside just because his quarterback let's say russell wilson gets his way or what dave was saying Earlier is right And they end up throwing the ball 540 times or 550 times.

And Lockett gets 130 or 140 targets. Oh, good God. He's probably going to be a top five wide receiver. He could catch 100 passes on 140 targets. Like his catch rate has just been crazy good the past couple of years. You can buy into that now. And the catch rate overall in those first nine weeks was 81.9%. That's insane.

10.65 yards per target. And then after the injury, everything dropped for him. He just wasn't the same. I don't know if it's necessarily he wasn't the same guy. His targets went down, too. He was averaging eight targets per game in the first nine weeks. From week 10 on, 5.7 targets per game. So it's almost like the Seahawks knew that he was playing hurt and that they didn't want him all the

Go go go ahead Yeah The number I wanted to give earlier that I what couldn't pull up my own tweet fast enough from a couple of days ago Since the start of 2017 50 wide receivers have at least 200 targets Over the past three seasons. Mm-hmm. Two of them have averaged more than 10 yards per target. Tyreek Hill and Tyler Lockett. Yeah, perfect. Makes perfect sense.

And he is definitely a splash play type of receiver, but he also is good in short range areas where they ask him to make a play after the catch. So the last point I want to make is once Seattle got to the playoffs, my guess is that Tyler Lockett was feeling just fine. He was averaging nine targets per game. His catch rate bounced right back up to 72.2%, 11 yards per target. And by the way, he went to the hospital. He had all these problems.

He didn't miss a game. He's missed one game in five seasons. So Tyler Lockett, he's going to be on a lot of my teams this year. John Ross might be on a lot of Ben Schrager's teams. He was a wide receiver 15, one five in PPR last year, but none of us have him ranked this year, even with the likely upgrade at quarterback. So Schrager, you're seeing something that the rest of us are not with John Ross. Yeah. I think Ben Gresh might echo this as well. I mean, he only played four games in the first half. He did have eight targets per game over 10 yards per target. Joe Burrow is better than Andy Dalton.

We think, and I have my doubts about AJ green. I really love getting John Ross in the 15th, 16th round. That's where he's going in our mocks. He may not be drafted in a lot of leagues. Just throw the dart with John Ross. He was written off before last season.

I think there's a chance there. I don't think he'll be a top 30 wide receiver, but there's a chance. And I love't think he'll be a top 30 wide receiver, but there's a chance. And I love taking that chance towards the end of drafts. Marvin Jones. Go ahead, Ben. Yeah, I'll just echo it. I had him on my list too.

An incredible two game stretch to start the season. And I think for a guy with his pedigree, what we saw is that he can make the big plays when it matters and he was hurt. And then when he came back, the Bengals season was done. I don't know who was playing quarterback at that point. I know Finley was for a while. And then it was back to Dalton. And things weren't as great towards the end of the season.

But in an offense where A.J. Green could be back and Tyler Boyd could also strain defenses, yeah, he probably won't get a ton of targets. But he should have his opportunities in one-on-one coverage and if we saw last year that he's more than capable of producing at the nfl level i mean i love him for best ball formats because you're going to get some boom plays i think there's no doubt about it i um i had actually put up a twitter poll about this with ross the other day and i i wanted to ask you guys, because I would kind of compared him to Corey Davis. They were both top 10 picks in that same

draft. They've both been disappointments. And it was pretty convincingly Ross over Davis as a dynasty stash. Do you guys feel that way for 2020? Like, is there is there really it seems to me that the path to Corey Davis having a good year is easier to me that the path to Corey Davis having a good year is easier to navigate than the path to John Ross. Just in terms of targets, you mean? Well, in terms of targets, or even like, yes, Ross had those two or three really good games last year.

Davis has had those types of stretches in 2018. He's behind A.J. Brown now, but that's just one guy as opposed to two guys. I think I'd still rather have Davis. I would too. I wouldn't. And the two things I would say is, one, for Davis, he's had those stretches, but he's had a lot more bad games.

We haven't seen Ross play enough. And if you look at a percentage of breakout games, it's been almost certainly higher. And then two, Ross's skill set is unique, right? I mean, we see guys like this and they're not necessarily always fantasy stars but they they maintain a role they play high snap shares because they can put so much stress on defenses and from a offensive you know strategy game plan standpoint it is really helpful to have a burner like that who can take the top off the defense and open up throwing lanes underneath Corey Davis's set, he either needed to be a high target number one at the NFL level and be really productive like

he was in college, or he's probably just a career wide receiver two at best, and he's not in a great passing offense, and he has a legit number one in A.J. Brown ahead of him. For me, he probably has a better path to more targets than Ross does, ross is a guy who has more upside with his specific skill set and is going to continue to get jobs and have a have a role in this league because of how fast he is that's true ted ginn like has this had this long career because of his speed and oh yeah he's the same yep but the the thing that bothers me about r Ross is that he gets injured very frequently. And when he does play,

it's very boom or bust. I get it for best ball, but I, I would not, I don't feel good about either of these guys. And I feel like the path to Corey Davis having, um, a turnaround would be leaving Tennessee.

He's got to get out of there and go to a better offense that, that has certainly a better quarterback that can help him out. I know that going into last year, something like 25% of the targets thrown his way were way off, and he just had no chance. But he's also messed up too. I don't know if either of these guys are going to be great for Dynasty moving forward.

One more quick stat I want to give on Ross. I just thought of this. But the year before last, he actually got a little bit of run, and his catchable target rate was 50 it was the lowest rate in the nfl the year before last it was one of the reasons i kind of liked him coming into last year andy dalton's not a good deep ball thrower if joe burrow and and dave you've mentioned this in some of your work on burrow that he hasn't been asked to throw down field a lot but i think yes he's a rookie i still think we can

assume he'll be a little bit better than someone who's not very good at that skill or else he probably shouldn't be the number one pick if he can be a little bit better than burrow if he can find ross on plays where ross actually gets open behind the defense and dalton missed him on some of those those big plays they could be a lot more i mean he quickly turned into a high efficiency player if his catchable target right on downfield passes spikes i am a little worried about burrow's ability to throw it 45 plus yards downfield i think that might be the one area that tua and justin herbert have on burrow is that he he just doesn't quite have that type of power in his arm uh to throw it that far downfield

but he can get it 30 plusplus yards, 35-plus yards. We saw that a bunch connected with Jamar Chase, Plenty, some of his other receivers. Justin Jefferson caught a couple of deep balls from him. But I think that Burrow does not necessarily help John Ross in that regard either. I want to move on to Marvin Jones, who's another receiver who I noticed had a great first half. And it seems to me like every year Marvin Jones has like three or four good slash amazing games. Like he'll have like one game every year where scores three touchdowns, has 150 yards. You never see it coming. It's amazing.

And then he'll have a couple other games that are really good. He scores basically gets good yardage, but then he's also got a lot of games where he just doesn't do a whole lot, but he doesn't kill you either. Call it 80 yards, 90 yards and PPR it's five catches for 90 yards, something like that. But Heath, you've got him as one of your first half heroes. He was actually wide receiver 13 in PPR because he had one of those amazing blow up games in the first half of last year, but he's also got value just in general in fantasy as at least a good bench receiver, but maybe, Heath, you could see him as more than that. Yeah, I think he could vary. I think if he plays 16 games, the expectation should be that he is a number three receiver, probably at the worst. I mean, it wasn't like that first half of last

year was the first time that we've seen Marvin Jones flash that type of upside. In 2017, he finished the year as a number five wide receiver with 61 catches for 1,100 yards and nine touchdowns. Only played half a season in 2018, wasn't on near as good a pace, but he was still nearly on a thousand yard pace and had five touchdowns in nine games. So he's going to score touchdowns. He's going to be efficient on a per catch basis. And if he stays healthy, I would suspect he's going to be right around wide receiver 30 at the worst. He had 16 PPR points per game in his first eight games is the first nine weeks. He had a buy in there as well. That includes a game with 43 PPR points, another one with 26 PPR points.

I don't hate him as a bench guy, and I think a lot of people on draft day are going to look at Marvin Jones and they're going to say, eh, he's old and he's kind of crummy. Certainly, consistency is not his strength, but I do think that he has some good redeeming value. And then Ben Gretsch, Cooper Cup, your first half hero. He was wide receiver four in PPR,

finishes the top 10 wide receiver. Actually, I think he finishes wide receiver four overall, and he's a consensus top eight wide receiver force going into this year. Yeah, 792 yards in the first eight games, so just under 100 yards per game. He was phenomenal to start the season. Only 369 in the final eight games so fewer than half um he's a tough one to read for me but now that brandon cooks is gone we do know that jared golf likes cup a lot right he likes him as his security blanket um we have to hope that it cooks i think even though he wasn't great last year was similar to what i just described with ross he put stress on the defense and opened up these targets underneath for cup we have to hope that it cooks i think even though he wasn't great last year was similar to what i just described with ross he put stress on the defense and opened up these targets underneath for cup we have to hope that um josh reynolds or whoever they they add as a third receiver if they do

decide to draft somebody is is able to you know adequately stress the the downfield uh defense and open up these these targets and cup doesn't get keyed on more and we also also have to hope that Tyler Higbee doesn't have too much of an impact on Cup like he seemed to down the stretch a little bit. But I do think that Cup is definitely somebody that's a little bit underrated right now when you think about how explosive he was early in the season. And when you look at his career to date, he's been nothing but productive since coming into the NFL. He's great.

He's great for fantasy. He's a great red zone target. Certainly can work in the slot and out of the slot. There's a lot to like about him, and I think the target volume can stay exactly where it's been. I like getting him as a number one fantasy receiver, and if you can find him in round three, amazing. Really good job if you can do that.

Not a lot of tight ends to talk about. Only two of them that we're going to touch on. We're going to touch on them really quickly. First one is Austin Hooper, who is tight end one in PPR through the first nine weeks of last season. He was on fire. He got hurt toward the end of the year. And now he's moving on to Cleveland.

I'm still interested in drafting Hooper. I like Higby more now. I'm sure I will find other tight ends that I will take ahead of Hooper as I get through the research and thinking about it all. But talked about the Browns offense already. They're going to use more two tight end sets. I think Hooper is going to be a dynamo in the red zone. I would expect him to have a career high in touchdowns, could be as high as nine from Baker Mayfield this year. But I am worried about the catches in the yards being as good as what it was in Atlanta. The other tight

end to mention is Evan Ingram, who was tight end six in PPR, and I think everybody forgot about Evan Ingram by the time the season ended last year. And now everybody looks at him as, well, he gets hurt all the time, wasn't really overly productive when he played, did have some good consistency,

but it wasn't explosive types of fantasy numbers. He was good. He was better than average, but it wasn't explosive types of fantasy numbers. He was good. He was better than average, but he wasn't amazing. I think people have a hard time gauging exactly where to draft him. I'd like to go around the horn here. Where would you guys take Evan Ingram in a PPR draft this year?

I haven't taken him in the eighth in a lot of leagues. I'm probably not going to reach for him unless his price rises but i do really like him he averaged 9.6 targets 6.6 catches 75 yards across the first five games last year before getting banged up and then ultimately only playing eight games but he's a receiver in in a you know in a tight end's positional role. He's, again, 9.6 targets. That's a huge number for tight end. So yes, he has the injury concerns. I think at tight end, a lot of guys do, first of all. But second of all, it's a onesie position. You can always add a second one or be able to fill it in other ways. I really like Ingram's upside where you can get him in drafts. And

yeah, I mean, I've been taking him in the eighth. If his price rises, I'd be comfortable taking him around where we took him last year in the sixth or so. Because I think he was fine when healthy last year. Or very good, actually. Schrager? Yeah, I'm in the same boat. I've been trying to target him in round eight. And Ben Gretsch has taken him in a couple of our mocks around then.

And I want him there. If I don't get him him I'm fine taking a guy like Noah Fant some upside but the key point is if Engram is injury prone and he gets hurt you can replace him with all this tight end upside depth that we're seeing this year I'm really comfortable taking him I'd rather have him than Austin Hooper I and I yeah I would rather have him than Austin Hooper. I believe I have him as a sixth round pick, but the thing is I have him behind Hunter Henry and Darren Waller, and Hunter Henry and Darren Waller have always been there in the sixth round, so I've never really considered

taking Evan Ingram there, but yeah, I think a sixth or seventh round pick is fine. He had 10 or more PPR points, which is pretty good for a tight end i would say in this day and age it's not great for kelsey or kittle but for pretty much every other tight end six of eight games last year 12 of his past 19 games that's pretty good but if you're looking at non-ppr he had seven or more non-ppr points in just three of eight games last year and just

nine of 19 so could be a better buy in PPR than non-PPR. He does have two concussions, a knee, a hamstring, and foot surgery since the start of the 2017 season. All right, let's get to a couple of Apple podcast review questions. You can always send in your questions via Apple podcast reviews and we'll answer them on a future mailbag segment here on the FFT pod. This is from the game Quadruple H. I thought it was Triple H. Whatever. How should we implement new dynasty rules?

For example, we're changing to Superflex in year two. Do you implement them immediately if there's a unanimous vote and effective in two years if it's just a simple majority how soon do you change the rules of your dynasty leagues when uh when when you decide to make changes or you talk about making changes and should it be a an overwhelming majority a unanimous decision to change or can you make the change just with a simple majority like quadruple h suggested heath i've been thinking about this a lot with our yolo dynasty league because i wish that we had set it up as a super flex league. And I'm kind of leaning towards most leagues that I set up moving forward will be super flex or two quarterback. And it's really difficult to make a change that big because it's just a foundational change.

For instance, in that league, Patrick Mahomes is my starting quarterback. I've never really worried about my second quarterback. I believe Andy Dalton is my current backup. I'll just find somebody off the waiver wire when Patrick Holmes has a bye. And there are teams like me. There are other teams that have three or four quality starting quarterbacks right now. So I don't think instituting a change like that for 2020 makes sense if you're voting on it right now. If you're going to vote on it right now, I think you should institute it for 2021 at the earliest. And I always say it's not a simple majority of the people that

vote, but if you have a 12-team league, you need seven yeses to change a rule. I'll go a step further. I think you need all 12 people to be on board because you made a decision to start a dynasty league a certain way. And I completely agree with what he just said. I think the lesson here is if you're starting a dynasty league, make sure you like your rules for multiple seasons. Because the strategy going into a startup dynasty draft determines the entire rest of the league. Yes, your roster is going to change change but the value that you have this is such a a massive um impact to quarterback value that it's going to dramatically shift the value on the rosters across the league and so you like he gave some great examples you're going to hammer some team's value and and really help others others. And I, even if seven people are comfortable

with their quarterback positions and think that's fine, if there's three or four or even two or one, even in my opinion, who's like, Hey, I went with a bunch of scrubs at quarterback. Cause this was a single quarterback league. And I knew I could handle that. I think it's really hard to say, yeah, you, you now have to deal with a reality where you have to pay first round picks to be able to trade for a quarterback. I mean, it just completely changes things. So do you think that, like, let's just say they want to make the change. My thought was it shouldn't happen until 2021.

Is it fair if it happens in 2022? Does two years worth of rookie drafts give somebody enough time to make up for that? Yeah, I mean, my answer would be you have to get everyone on board. If everyone agrees that, yeah, with their current roster, they're comfortable doing it in 2021 then go for it or maybe if there's one holdout that um you know isn't that concerned about it or something you can still go forward but i think it's really hard to like you can break up a dynasty league pretty quick and have people drop out and and then you have these rosters that maybe aren't great that you don't you really want and no one really wants to break up their league anyway so i think yeah whatever everyone's on board with

if they're on board with doing for 2020 or 2021 because the quarterback um uh the the league is pretty balanced in terms of quarterback depth then go for it but i think you got to make sure that everybody is pretty much on board that has been your one question edition of regulators for this week's podcast. From Maxwell Silverhammer, not to be confused with the silver cat feeds when blue and yellow meet, should I trade my 2020 1.04 for Geis, Gesicki, and Bridgewater?

This is a super flex and tight end premium league. And he's currently stuck. He said stuck. He's currently stuck with Mahomes, but he's also got Trubisky and Foles. So I guess that's the part that he was stuck with. What do you, what do you suggest for, for a good old Markswell here, Schrager? Hold on to the 1.04. It's so valuable this year. Unless you don't have any tight end, you're not desperate for Gusecki. You're not desperate for quarterback with Mahomes and the Bears starting quarterback that you need Bridgewater. It's not a huge upgrade. Keep the 1.04.

Anybody disagree? Good. From Justin in Atlanta. In the PPR Dynasty League, I traded Mike Evans and Derek Henry for Tyreek Hill, Justin Jackson, 1.06, and 3.06. I already have 1.09, and my running backs left are Zeke Gurley, Mark Ingram, and Tariq Cohen. I feel I capitalized on my running back premium. What do you think?

He traded who? He traded Evans and Derek Henry for Tyreek Hill, Justin Jackson, the sixth pick in the first round, the sixth pick in the third round in his ppr dynasty league he might have from a purely value standpoint not gotten as much as he could have from henry but i really like the idea of trading henry now because he's a guy who just came off a 400-carry season, and I've talked a lot about being concerned about his receiving upside, whether he can really sustain an elite running back profile late into his career. I think he's probably just a depreciating, you know, it's not always great to call players assets,

but he's probably somebody in fantasy. His trade value is going to drop over the course of the next several years. So getting the 106, he can definitely get another good young running back there. And I would take Hill over Evans in dynasty. So I think he upgraded there. Yeah, it was just straight up Hill and 1.06. He also got Justin Jackson in 3.06. I think he won the trade.

Is that what the trade chart says? Yes, the trade chart says, I think 1.06 and Tyreek Hill is a fair trade for Mike Evans and Derrick Henry. And you're getting the best asset in the deal in Tyreek Hill. And I think Justin Jackson and 3.06 added to it's enough to say you won. I agree that he's getting the best asset in the deal. But is he getting the best asset in the deal by far? Because the two players that he's giving up in Evans and Henry,

I mean, those guys aren't, aren't anything to sneeze at. And I realized that one bad year from Derek Henry senses value through the floor. So getting what you can for now in a dynasty league, I understand it, but I don't think you should just give them away for nothing. No, I think when you, and when you pair them with Mike Evans, I just, sorry, Heath, I think that those two guys don't, that's great that's great value. You're turning another team in your league into a contender Yeah I think the difference between Tyreek Hill and Mike Evans is bigger than the difference between Derrick Henry and 1.06 or equal to I Think that's a good way of putting it

It's a lot there's a lot of firepower in this trade But I like Hill a lot more than Evans as well. And not a ton more. I still like Evans, but I have Hill as a top, probably three receiver in dynasty right now. He's still very young. Um, think we're, we're all kind of a little low on him.

He's my number two receiver in redraft for this year as well. Uh, and then, yeah, the one Oh six is, is nothing to sneeze at. I mean, Henry's very good,

but you're going to get a really good back in this draft. Certainly a back who has a longer future than Derek Henry does from this point on. So yeah, I guess it's pretty close, but I think if you're trying to win now, you hang on to Evans and Henry and then you deal with the consequences later. Last question from Chris in Tampa. What is going to happen with AB? Why haven't we heard updates about his status from the NFL? Well, Chris, I'm thinking that the NFL doesn't really want to have a circus show like AB back into the league until he's really, really sorry for all the things he's said and done and the things that he's called the NFL. And I don't know if there's a team that's really racing out there ready to sign A.B. to a lucrative

deal, especially when the draft hasn't happened yet. And there are so many good young wide receivers in this draft class that I can't help but think that A.B. might be without a job forever. So I don't mind if people, and I've done this, you take your last pick, you throw it at Antonio Brown just in case he comes back. But think of all the hoops that he has to go through before he can come back and be what he was for fantasy. I mean, he's going to need to land with a perfect team. He's going to need to be the number one receiver. He's got to play

like he did before. He won't be suspended. He'll be the model citizen in the locker room and off the field it just feels like there's too much that has to happen for Antonio Brown to come back and be what he was in fantasy and there's actually been some really good research on on this and it's kind of a sad thing but um that last point is a good one whether he will get into additional trouble because there is a lot of, whether he will get into additional trouble, because there is a lot of research that shows that once a player gets suspended, he's far more likely to be suspended again, unfortunately.

And they haven't done anything about his arrest in January yet, and they still could. So that's scary, too. Right. They haven't actually determined what they're going to do. So there could be a suspension when he signs, he signs who knows if he will sign so it let's put this way if you had to spend your last pick on him or josh gordon or a kicker heath who would you take um josh gordon okay fair. No kickers for Heath. I'll take John Ross. You can get John Ross for sure.

Guys, great show. I had fun. Great questions from our Apple podcast reviewers. Great first half heroes from us to talk about. And hopefully you guys remember these names as we go through our mock drafts, as we go through our process getting ready for the 2020 season hopefully these guys will help you um just kind of have an edge on the rest of the mouth breathers in your league who just don't really think about what happened in the first half of last year and they're only focused on what happened overall in

the year or how a guy ended and maybe that's why derrick henry could go number two overall in your league for example so thanks for listening appreciate you guys we'll talk to you again on Friday for Schrager for Gretch for Chris Towers for the birthday boy Heath Cummings happy birthday Heath I'm Dave thanks for coming out