Fantasy Football Today - Five Big Fantasy Questions from Conference Championship Weekend (01/26 Fantasy Football Podcast)
Episode Date: January 26, 2026We start the show with our thoughts on yesterday's games including some controversial fourth down decisions. And of course we give our early picks for Super Bowl LX! ... We've got Five Big Fantasy Que...stions after the weekend. First, which Patriots running back should be drafted first in 2026 (16:05)? Is Mike McCarthy a good hire for the Steelers offense (21:00)? And will Kyren WIlliams repeat as a Top 12 running back given his workload concerns (24:15)? ... We have questions about veteran wide receivers Davante Adams (28:40) and Stefon Diggs (33:55) with an amazing stat about Adams' touchdowns and our thoughts on Diggs' incredible efficiency. And we finish with news and notes (42:40) with more coaching news and other updates ... Email us at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Shop our store: shop.cbssports.com/fantasy SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 FOLLOW FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 SUBSCRIBE to FFT DFS on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dfs/id1579415837 To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Transcript
Discussion (0)
Hey, Ontario, come on down to BetMGM Casino and see what our newest exclusive the Price's Right Fortune Pick has to offer.
Don't miss out.
Play exciting casino games based on the iconic game show, only at BetMGM.
Check out how we've reimagined three of the show's iconic games, like Plinkgo, Cliffhanger, and the Big Wheel into fun casino game features.
Don't forget to download the BetmGM Casino app for exclusive access and excitement on the Price's Right Fortune Pick.
Pull up a seat and experience the Price is Right Fortune Pick,
only available at BedmGM Casino.
BetMGM and GameSense remind you to play responsibly.
19 plus to wager.
Ontario only.
Please play responsibly.
If you have questions or concerns about your gambling or someone close to you,
please contact Connects Ontario at 1866-531-2,600,
to speak to an advisor, free of charge.
BenMGGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with Eye Gaming Ontario.
This is fantasy football today from CBS Sports.
Swat play!
It's time to dominate your fantasy league.
Off to the races, and he stays on his feet.
Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.
The Super Bowl is set with the Seattle Seahawks opening as four and a half point favorites against New England,
and this total is 46.5.
Two weeks from now, we'll know who wins the Super Bowl.
Welcome everybody to Fantasy Football today.
presented by BedmGM.
Make it legendary.
Adam Azer here with Jamie Eisenberg and Heath Cummings.
Let's react to yesterday's games.
Denver and New England.
New England wins 10-7.
Rams and Seahawks.
Seattle wins 3127.
Heath, which game was more exciting?
I like watching football played in snow,
but in terms of which game was more exciting,
it was not particularly close.
It was the Rams, Seattle game.
Those two wide receivers, JSN and Puka, just absolutely put on a show.
You know how lucky you are?
You didn't have any snow, you guys.
They lived in one of the only parts of the country that had good weather yesterday.
Congratulations.
It was hot.
Oh, you poor guy.
I just can't imagine choosing to leave.
Yeah, me either.
Be either.
Gosh, goodness.
Yeah, I hope everybody's okay with all the cold weather.
Wild weekend here.
Freezing, freezing.
You know, we got some Vikings fans here in the chat saying, send us some love.
I posted something on Twitter.
Like, I felt really bad for Vikings fans.
I'm sorry, Thomas.
That had to hurt a lot.
Now, you know, like, that's like watching Daniel Jones this year.
I was like, what?
Can't be serious.
Well, yeah, kind of.
But like, it was eight weeks of the regular season with Daniel Jones.
It wasn't throwing for 300 yards and three touchdowns in the NFC championship game.
he did have quite a game.
Jamie,
what were your thoughts on on the weekend?
Playoffs in the snow is terrible.
And the,
yeah,
I mean,
the NFC championship game
was clearly the best game to watch
and it was fun.
It was,
you know,
a lot of interesting coaching decisions
and some,
you know,
play calls that were,
you know,
excited to see.
I think we're going to get
an interesting Super Bowl here.
You know,
clearly the Patriots are,
our head of schedule.
and we'll see how they hold up against that defense.
But I mean, Mike Brable, what a coaching job he's done all season
and just the turnaround.
And I think if you saw the locker room stuff for them,
I didn't realize first team in NFL history to go 9-10-0 on the road.
So that's clearly impressive feat.
So hopefully we got a good game.
Do you think the Broncos should have gone for it as they did
on 4th and 1 from the New England 14 with 928 to play
in the second quarter. They were up 7-0.
They had fourth and one at the 14-yard line.
Nine and a half to play in the second quarter.
They went for it. Jamie, was that the right decision?
So first off, there's a great story on ESPN from Seth Wickersham.
Got some insight with Sean Payton on that.
I encourage you to read it read this morning.
It was, you know, great story.
I would have probably kicked,
just, you know, especially knowing that the weather and what it was going to be,
the way that your defensive played at that point,
they forced three punts up to that point.
And knowing that you're dealing with the backup quarterback.
So the fact that Sean Payne called a play, you know,
I just know this again from me, so he called a play,
then call time out, changed the play,
and wasn't expecting to see what the Patriots did to them defensively.
And from the moment they snapped the ball,
they knew the play was blown up.
So I think in hindsight, you take the points,
knowing that you're, you know, going to have some inclement weather coming in,
and that is going to be probably tough to score.
But, you know, the analytics say what the analytics say.
And at that point, it was, you know, go for it.
I'm usually Mr. Go for it.
And I, like, at that moment, I really couldn't decide.
I was thinking about how terrible would be to be Sean Payton trying to make that decision.
But I certainly probably would have just gone with a quarterback sneaker, a push,
because you said fourth and one.
I think it was like fourth and half, wasn't it?
I think it was, I don't remember exactly.
I thought it was more like a good, good solid yard.
Yeah.
But one thing I did see on, on Twitter was someone commented,
didn't Sean Payton know that the weather was going to get really bad?
And I'm pretty sure.
I feel like 95% confident in this,
Kevin Roth, or the weather guy we always cite, cited,
I didn't know it was going to get that bad.
And I'm a meteorologist.
And it is not of important.
Did you know what kind of condition?
I don't think they knew what the fourth quarter was going to be like.
Well, most of the second half, really, but it is kind of an important note.
I would think if you have Bow Nix in that situation, it's easy to go for it.
Yeah.
You have your backup quarterback.
Your defense is playing great.
And really, let's face it, the defense hadn't played that well to that point in the season for the last two or three weeks,
three games.
You know, so the Broncos defense just hadn't been the same.
you also knew at some point if you're just
I should say you knew you had expectations
Jake may had been turnover prone
in the last couple of games also
so was that going to come at some point also
so taking the points makes a little bit more sense
in some of those situations so I don't know
it's it's obviously easy to hindsight
and second guess if they score
they go forthup they probably win the game based on how the
unfold and another interesting
notice if they did convert the field goal
they still may be playing.
Right now?
Yeah.
Another interesting note is that Will Lutz, the kicker, the Broncos kicker,
said that when his field goal was blocked by Leonard Taylor,
that was in the fourth quarter,
that they may have been lined up incorrectly.
They may have been a yard short on their snap
because they couldn't, the field was in such horrible conditions.
They didn't count the yardage right, possibly.
Yeah, one of the Broncos beatwriters actually did something
looking at screenshots of it.
And he thinks they were seven yards back instead of eight.
Yeah, how about that?
Okay, next question.
Should the Rams have gone for it on fourth and four at the Seattle's six-yard line,
five minutes left in the game, and they were down by four.
It could have kicked a field goal to go down by one or go for it as they did on fourth and four
and an incomplete pass in the end zone.
Heath, did the Rams make the right decision?
I think this one is much, much.
much easier. Like, I cannot imagine kicking a field goal there. You hadn't had very much success
stopping Seattle all day long. You couldn't kick a field goal and say, yeah, we'll get a,
we'll get a quick stop and get the ball back and then go kick another field goal. That was 100%
the right call, in my opinion. Especially there, and especially the way Stafford was playing.
Like, he's the MVP. You go allow him to make a play.
I would personally, first of all, I would vote for Drake May for MVP. Just saying.
But I guess I'm going to be qualified.
He's certainly qualified and deserving.
I just think Stafford had a better season.
He did have a better season, but man.
And tough competition.
Yeah, but the difference between who he's throwing to to me is just the...
Somebody made the observation, and this is not a slight to them, because congratulations for being in the Super Bowl.
But it was an incredible playoffs so far.
Did the Patriots play the least entertaining game all three weekends?
Yeah.
Did they?
I feel like last weekend there was another.
Oh.
Yeah, I mean, yeah, probably, probably.
Okay, and then I think, do you guys think the Rams,
I think the Rams should have gone for two after the Pooka touchdown
with about two minutes left in the third quarter to try to make it a three-point game?
Yeah.
I don't know what they were doing there.
I agree with that.
All right, anyway, who's going to win the Super Bowl, Jamie?
It's hard to bet against Seattle right now.
I mean, their defense is just so tough against an offense like the Patriots right now.
So I would like to see Drake May win a Super Bowl,
more so than Lexi, San Bernard, win a Super Bowl.
But look, give him credit.
He's had a fantastic run, fantastic postseason.
It's a great comeback story of maybe all-time,
you know, just a guy that was written off
and one of the biggest draft bus at that point in his career.
And this was the team that really exposed him.
Remember, I'm seeing ghosts, was against the Patriots.
And so to come back and have the revenge
against the Rams and then the revenge against New England.
I think it's just an awesome story.
But, you know, this could be the start of a Hall of Fame career for Drake May.
So, but it's just hard to bet against Seattle this one.
You know, it's funny, when I don't care who wins, I usually just cheer for the underdog.
But, like, the Patriots are clearly the underdog.
But it sure feels like Sam Darnold is the underdog.
Yeah.
Yeah, it's a great point.
It's a great point.
I think Seattle will win.
I feel like it's pretty obvious.
If Seattle doesn't turn the ball over, they're going to win.
You just never know when bad Donald's going to show up.
But then again, Drake May, I mean, he didn't turn the ball over in this game,
but he almost did on the first possession through that slant, I think, to Diggs on third down,
was almost intercepted.
Will Campbell's struggling a little bit of left tackle.
I think the Seahawks will win.
And just a note to coaches in the future, if you know you're going to play in the snow,
don't wear white.
seriously and i i think i think you're right like the allure of the snow game in the playoffs it might be
starting to wear off i don't know if people want to see this garbage this was just slipping and
falling all over the place like this supposed to be the best football that we're watching right
i i wonder how much of that was the surprise weather i was watching the game and i what i said
when it started was it looks like everybody's wearing the wrong cleats now like they just they didn't
have the right cleats i wonder if they had known going in
in that it was going to snow if it would have been a little cleaner.
All right, well, today on the show, we are going to talk.
I got five big questions coming out of the conference championship games and some of the
coaching news.
We're going to talk about Mike McCarthy going to the Pittsburgh Steelers and some other
coaching news and update on Tyree Kill and things like that.
So let's get into it here.
Just some quick stats.
We're going to talk about some of these players like Ramandre Stevenson.
We're going to talk about the Patriots backfield dominated the carries yesterday.
He's averaged 4.6 yards per carrier better in three of five.
seasons. Ken Walker, you know, I was watching the game yesterday. We were all watching the game
yesterday and thinking, man, this guy can knock it on the field during the two-minute drill.
And in his entire career, Ken Walker has six catches, six catches in the last two minutes of the
second or the fourth quarter. And, you know, four of them, I believe, came in 2024 when he
had a 46 catch season in 11 games. But this year he had one catch in the two-minute drill,
Ken Walker. So, you know, that's just some role that he's just not going to get, it seems.
Devante Adams, we're going to talk about him.
Devante Adams averaged 1.9 yards after the catch per reception this year.
That is unbelievably low.
And only one wide receiver with 50 or more targets.
There were 78 wide receivers with 50 or more targets.
Only one wide receiver had a lower yak per catch than Devante Adams.
It was Mike Evans.
Two pretty similar guys right now.
Mike Evans, 1.2 yards after the catch per reception.
That is the lowest in 16 seasons.
Ted Ginn also average 1.2 yards after catch per reception back in 2009.
So, you know, just some notes.
So what you're saying is old receivers can't separate?
It's not necessarily about separating.
It's just about doing stuff after the catch.
But yeah, no, I mean, you think so.
But like two years ago, Adams averaged 2.5 yards after the catch per reception,
which is bad, really bad.
Then last year, he averaged 6.4.
went way up and then this year
1.9 with a higher a dot.
It's hard to have yak when
every pass you catch year in the end zone already.
And this is the most amazing thing, Heath.
He had 14 touchdown catches this year
Devante Adams. Oh wait, no, is that right?
He had played 14 games.
15 with the playoffs, yeah.
14 and 14 games in the regular season.
Fine.
And this 15 in the playoffs.
Every single one of his touchdowns
was an end zone target.
Yeah.
That's insane.
There was that one play where Devante Adams caught a ball and then ran into the end zone.
Every one of his touchdown catches was an end zone target.
Unbelievable.
Well, in fairness, a lot of them were too close unless it was a screen for him to do that because they were inside the five-yard line when they threw it to him.
Yeah, I'm sure.
Yeah, a lot of them were.
Absolutely.
All right.
So he's an interesting guy.
Can he be a top 12 wide receiver next season at age 33?
We'll talk about that.
Programming this week, usually we're Monday,
Wednesday, Thursday. We're going to go Monday, Wednesday, Friday. And Friday is going to be a mailbag with Jamie and Dan and me.
So get your questions submitted. We'll take a quick break and come back with our five big questions coming out of the conference championship games after this.
First question, we're talking about where do we draft Trayvion Henderson, this and that.
Jamie, why would we even draft Trayvion Henderson ahead of Ramandre Stevenson next year?
Well, I mean, the hope would be more upside going into year two. But I think as we've sort of discussed,
based on the early rankings conversations
and the couple of mock drafts that we've done,
it feels like he's going too soon.
So I think a couple people had him in the top 12.
We've seen him going around three in the two mock drafts,
one PPR, one half PPR.
I think we're going to do another one this week.
So maybe we'll get a little bit more of a different view
of maybe where he goes.
But I think it's just hard to say,
okay, this is what happened during his rookie season.
It's gotten significantly worse in the playoffs.
And now we're going to go into year two.
with still being part of a committee.
Now, again, the talent, I still think favors Henderson over Stevenson.
The trust in the coaching staff is clearly still Stevenson over Henderson.
And so if there's going to be a shared backfield,
if there's going to be a split that's pretty significantly close to 50-50,
if not maybe even the favor of Stevenson,
because for the majority of the season, he played more snaps than Henderson.
It's just tough to trust Treveon Henderson as anything more than a borderline number
to running back or a high-end flex
with the hope of, okay, if he does take that step forward,
then you have a steal on draft day.
But to reach for him, I think, in rounds three or four,
maybe even round five,
at least right now feels like that's just way, way too soon.
Heath, look at this Twitter poll from, oh, sorry, Thomas.
Would you mind, thank you.
There we go.
We had to get rid of that.
I'll add it.
There we go.
Twitter poll,
assuming both are back with Patriots next season,
who would you draft first in 2026?
I just posted this an hour ago,
so only 353 votes,
but 69% Trevianne Henderson,
31% Remandre Stevenson.
What are your thoughts?
I think the hope is he gets a full off season,
cleans up some of the stuff
that has kept him off of the field.
And if he gets 12 touches a game
and Ramondre gets 12 touches a game,
it's much more likely that Henderson's going to turn one of those into a 60-yard touchdown.
And so that's more upside would be the reason you would draft him higher.
But he's one of the guys who definitely saw his value fall a little in the playoffs.
And Stevenson, tomorrow we're talking about the biggest dynasty risers and fallers in the playoffs.
And Stevenson's definitely one of the big risers.
It's weird with Henderson because where he's at in the dynasty rankings,
I'm not sure he's going to fall that much because the running backs behind.
him are guys like Breeshole
who were still waiting to see
where he's going to be playing next year.
So those,
it won't be a huge movement from Henderson,
but Stevenson will be a big dynasty riser, I think,
even at 28.
And Remandre Stevenson
in our latest half-PPR mock draft
went with the seventh pick of round seven.
Other running backs in that range,
not many, actually.
Jacori Kroski Merritt,
Tony Pollard,
Riko Dowdell, Blake Corum.
All right.
Just to, let's just tally it up here.
The games that Remandre Stevenson played, including the postseason,
181 carries for Ramandre.
It was almost even before yesterday when Stevenson had 25 carries and Henderson had three.
But now the updated tally, 181 carries for Stevenson, 157 for Trevion,
39 catches for Stevenson, 27 for Henderson.
They both averaged right around four and a half yards per carry.
But Stevenson, eight carries from inside the three-yard line.
Henderson, too.
Henderson, by the way, was on the injury report this week.
I don't know if that had anything to do with his reduced role.
He had a shoulder injury.
All right.
Let's go to our...
We'll obviously talk about this more in the next,
even maybe Wednesday, but being in a
committee in college
and not the full-time guy.
Is that a red flag?
Yeah, sure.
All right. Before we get to our second question,
picture this, football fans.
You bet on your favorite player to score
the first touchdown in the game, but his teammate scores instead.
And if this happens, BetMGM wants to give you another chance at the end zone.
With BetMGM's second chance promotion, you'll get your stake back if your first touchdown
score scores second instead.
That's right, bet on any pro football player to score the first touchdown of the game.
If you're right, you win.
If your player scores second, you get your stake back in cash.
With BetMGM's second chance offer, you have a chance to keep the fun going after the
first player crosses the goal line.
Try a first touchdown score or wager with confidence today.
Bet MGM make it legendary.
Second question from the weekend.
Is Mike McCarthy good or bad for Pittsburgh?
Heath?
Good.
Yeah?
Could be great for D.K. Meckha.
I was looking at this this morning, and Mike McCarthy's number one wide receiver
has averaged a little over nine targets per game the last 10 years.
Every one of those seasons, it was over, all but one of those seasons, it was over eight targets per game.
Should be a more pass heavy offense.
Should hopefully be a less diverse offense than what Arthur Smith prefers, which is, let's have 17 guys touch the ball four times.
So I think it's a, I don't know if it's a good thing for winning.
I don't know if it's a good thing for Steelers fans, but I think for the fantasy value of the Steelers, it's a good thing.
Jamie, how do you feel about Mike McCarthy going to Pittsburgh?
I think it's definitely an upgrade, you know, to what degree we'll find out.
You know, it really comes down to the quarterback, you know, because for the majority of his coaching tenure, it's Aaron Rogers and Dak Prescott.
That's going to help a lot of things.
You know, Rogers and his prime Prescott's had three of his best seasons under McCarthy when he was in Dallas.
So is it a 42-year-old Aaron Rogers?
Or is it a reset button?
And we're talking about wherever they're able to find a quarterback in the draft.
or are they going with another also-ran type of guy?
Maybe they get Malik Willis, you know, one of those type of situations.
Maybe they settle for Tuaua if he said for, you know,
one of those scenarios where it's going to be, okay,
now we have to see if McCarthy can work as magic.
So I think from an offensive standpoint is definitely an upgrade.
From who are we going to really fall in love with fantasy-wise,
to me it comes down to the quarterback.
Okay.
Just looking at his Dallas tenure, five seasons as the Cowboys head coach after 13 seasons in Green Bay.
In those five seasons, McCarthy went six and ten once and seven and ten once.
Those were two years in which Dak Prescott got hurt.
He went 12 and five in the other three seasons.
Plays per game.
This is where Dallas ranked in plays per game.
This is the most encouraging thing.
Top nine in all five seasons, top four in four of five seasons.
They ran a lot of plays under McCarthy.
Points per game, the three years that Dak did not get hurt, top four in points per game.
The two years in which you did get hurt, 18th in 2020, 25th in 2024.
Now, in only the games that Dak Press got played in 2024, they were 18th in scoring.
I think people kind of felt like McCarthy's offense had gotten a little stale.
Maybe that's true.
It would be really interesting, though, because my expectation is that Rogers is coming back and playing for McCarthy.
But it could be wrong.
But if that's the case, I'm going to go look at what McCarthy's plays per game with Rogers were,
because he's notorious for wanting to snap the ball late and see the defense.
And I don't think there'll be a fast team if Rogers is the quarterback.
Yeah, but probably not.
And just one other encouraging note on that is that there actually were three years in that five-year stretch where Dallas was top seven in defense.
They weren't as horrible defense the entire time.
And they still ran a lot of plays there.
All right.
Let's go to our third question.
It's about Kyron Williams.
Did not have a great game yesterday.
But he had a great season.
Despite the reduced workload, Jamie Kiron Williams was the number eight running back overall in non-PPR.
number nine overall and full PPR,
and he was top 11 in both formats per game.
That was with 259 carries and 36 catches in 17 games,
13 total touchdowns.
Very efficient season for him.
And after their by-week, the last 10 games,
he was on pace for 258 carries,
which is basically he had 259 for the year,
but Blake Quorum was on pace for 177 carries.
Anyway, the question is,
will Kyron Williams repeat as a top 12 running back in 2026?
He certainly can.
I think he's going to end up being one of the better steals on draft day.
And when I say that, he's probably going in round three at the latest.
So you're talking about a guy that's going to, you know, if he stays healthy,
even in a committee, he still has the ability, as you see if you're watching on YouTube,
13 total touchdowns.
The touchdowns are going to be the thing that sort of pushes him into that range of running backs
that keeps him in the top, keeps him in the top 12.
So I don't think we're going to get back to him being a significant.
and pass catcher. And obviously a lot of this depends on Will Matthew Stafford return. Because if they're
going with a new quarterback, then you got to worry a little bit about this offense. But as in now,
I think Stafford's expected to come back. Everything's expected to sort of just run it back again.
You know, maybe Adams could be a change if possible. He decides he doesn't want to play anymore,
or they decide they want to move on. But I would expect everybody to come back if Stafford's there
and try and make another run at this. So I think you're just looking at Kyron as in a committee,
head of the committee safe in that committee,
just not necessarily somebody, I think,
barring an injury maybe to quorum,
or a switch to where he's back,
catching the ball at a higher level,
maybe what we saw the first year of his tenure
as the lead guy for the Rams.
I don't think he's got top five or six upside,
but certainly can still be in the top 10
and definitely close to top 12.
Yeah, I think the playoffs kind of showed
that the touchdowns insulate the bad yardage games generally.
Like he only had 39 rushing yard yesterday,
but I think he still scored 14 PPR fantasy points
because he had a receiving touchdown.
And that's what kind of happened
in the first round of the playoffs.
And so I think he'll be very close
if Stafford's back to a top 12 running back
and if he's available in round three,
I'm going to draft a lot of them again.
But it's really like such a reduced workload.
I mean, his 17-game pace of carries
in the last three years,
323, 336, 259.
He's not supplementing this.
with more catch it. He's kind of like
Devante Adams in a sense, right? I mean,
it's the touchdowns are carrying him.
But one of the things I found interesting,
if you look at, I think their buy was, let me just double
check, their buy was week eight.
So if we look at weeks eight through 18
or nine through 18, same thing.
Chiron had 152 carries.
Coram had 104.
And then if we look at the goal line
carries, which you can define as whatever
you want, I'll go to three yard line.
Corum actually had more.
Corum had eight carries at the goal line.
Kyron had seven.
Kyrin scored on five of those seven.
Korum scored on three of the eight.
So I think you're,
I think, you know,
you're risking some touchdown regression here
based on, I guess,
touchdown rate,
just not that many carries or catches
for all these touchdowns.
Yeah.
I mean, I think when we talk about reduced workload,
we talked about this at the beginning of the year.
Yes, I think he's going to touch the ball less,
but he still had 17.
17.5 touches per game.
If you're getting 17, 18 touches per game on one of the best offenses in football,
you're probably going to score a lot of touchdowns.
Yeah, that is true.
All right, then let's go to Devante Adams.
Question number four.
Oh, sorry.
By the way, I just wanted to say, Blake quorum is, after the biweek is when they really started
get him going.
So that was a week eight by.
After the by week, Kyron Williams was still the number 12 running back per game,
both half PPR and full PPR.
All right.
Let's go to question number four.
Devante Adams.
Devante Adams is 33 years old now, recently.
He had a career low catch rate with a career high AD, so not a shock.
He had his fewest yards per game in 12 years, but he was a top 10 wide receiver per game.
Jamie, are you bullish or bearish on Devante Adams for 2026?
I think you know where I typically come out on an older player, so it'll probably be more on the bear's side.
But, you know, again, being attached to one of the best quarterbacks past passing games,
the number two guy as opposed to the number one guy,
I think you just kind of understand what you're getting here.
So you're not going to get a guy that is going to win with catches and yards anymore.
You're going to get a guy that's going to win with touchdowns.
And so I think he's trending more toward a number three receiver than he is toward a number one receiver.
But as we sort of noted when we went through our rankings, top 24, some of the drafts that we've done,
that receiver, at least as them now, thins out pretty quickly.
And so he's going to be one of those guys that's kind of in that bridge range of, you know, 20 through 30, I think is kind of where probably will settle from a consensus standpoint.
I think you're looking at round four, maybe round five at the earliest for Devante Adams at this point in his career.
And he may end up rewarding you with a surprise season from a yardage and catch standpoint and maybe a little disappointing from a touchdown standpoint because replicating 14 touchdowns in 14 games is hard to do.
but missing three games with a hamstring injury is sort of indicative of older wide receivers,
as we saw with Mike Evans, missing time with injury this year as well.
And so as Pooka continues to get better, as I'm sure they're going to try and, you know,
develop some of their younger receivers because they have to start to plan for the future.
Maybe Adams takes a significant step back.
I don't think that will happen based on who he is and still the ability to get free off
the line of scrimmage and what he probably means to Stafford and McVeigh.
I just don't think you want to overvalue him because he scored 14 touchdowns this year.
Heath, what do you think bullish or bearish on Devante Adams for next season?
It'll depend on ADP, but I think I agree with Jamie.
I think I'll probably have him ranked as a number two wide receiver that is closer to a wide receiver three than a number one.
So maybe wide receiver 20 as the over under and a risky profile at that.
I don't think I'm going to want to take him in the first four rounds.
So maybe I'm a little lower than that.
That is where he went in our half-PPR draft.
So he went, DeVante Adams went with the seventh pick of round four.
That round, the wide receivers that went in that round were Ladd-McConkie, Garrett Wilson,
Cortland Sutton, Devante Adams, Ameca Abuka, and Jalen Waddle.
Who's the best wide receiver there, McConkey, Garrett Wilson, Sutton, Adams, Abuka, and Waddle?
Who's the quarterback in Miami?
Stafford gets straight. He retires there.
Then it's Jalen Waddle.
I would take McConkey first with McDaniel there, no.
You would take McConkey first and then what?
With McDaniel there now for the charges.
Mike McDaniel is the coordinator.
He is, but he's still interviewing for head coaching jobs.
Yeah, you can still get there.
He's interviewing for head coaching jobs.
Yeah.
I wonder if they are just waiting for Kubiak,
and then if Kubiak chooses somewhere else, they hire McDaniel.
And maybe.
Okay, so Adams is, Adams or Sutton,
who's certainly going out with a whimper.
To me, they're the same type of player
because the touchdowns are probably going to sway them.
I'd probably lean Sutton, but it's close.
Yeah, I'll go there.
I think the one that's interesting is Ibuka,
because if Evans returns,
it's hard to feel great about Ibuka.
Like, you could certainly see the upside.
We saw it in the first four or five weeks of the season last year,
or 2025, but like, it was so brutal
when everybody was healthy.
So if Evans goes back to Tampa,
is it Adams or Evans?
I'd probably go Evans over Adams,
but it's close.
I'm so confused.
Their names are too similar.
It's like when you say them back to back,
it just Evans Adams, I don't know.
What if his name was Evan Adams?
Yeah, that would be really weird.
So I mentioned that, oh, Adams,
so 28 end zone targets for Adams in 14 games.
Number two in end zone targets,
two guys were tied.
Pickens and McBride, they had 18.
He had 10 more end zone targets
in them and he missed three games. He had the most end zone targets since at least 2010.
I didn't even bother going back any further than that. And yes, I mentioned that all 14 of his
touchdowns were end zone, right? Every single one of them, he caught in the end zone.
No other player had more than six touchdowns on end zone targets this year. But the one guy
who had back to back season, well, I shouldn't say the one guy. I didn't go back that far. I just
went back a couple of years. Mike Evans is a guy who did that. Twenty-twenty-three Evans had, not exactly,
exactly the same thing.
But he had 10 of his 13 touchdowns were end zone targets.
The following year,
nine of his 11 touchdowns were end zone targets.
So yeah,
these guys are going to need the touchdowns for sure.
And they could get them.
Well,
and it's not hard to see how that happened.
Because going back to the YAC discussion,
11 of those touchdowns were passes from inside the 10-yard line.
For Adams.
Adams, yeah.
14, yeah.
All right.
Last question.
So this is like an analytical.
The analytics question, I guess, kind of.
It's about Stefan Diggs.
Stefan Diggs was the number 25 wide receiver per game in PPR,
number 33 per game and non-PPR.
He was really a standout in terms of advanced metrics.
Number one in catch rate among the 78 wide receivers of 50 or more targets.
Let's see, 11th and yards per target, seventh and yards per route run,
53rd in yards per catch, 16th and Explan.
of play rate, seventh and first down rate,
any of the 13th highest slot rate for what that's worth.
Stefan Diggs.
The question for Diggs, Heath, I'll let you go first.
Does he have must-start potential in 2026?
And here's the basis for this.
He had five games all year in which he ran 80% or more of the routes,
including two in the post-season, three in the regular season.
He scored 14 or more PPR fantasy points in four of those five games.
He scored 16 or more in three of the five.
He had a 23% target share better in four of the five.
So when he was on the field, he was really, really good.
Does Stefan Diggs have must-start potential in 2026?
We will get Heath's answer when we come back from this much-needed commercial break.
Sorry to spring that on you, Thomas Schaefer.
Cue it up.
We'll be right back on FFT.
Hey, this is Richard Deich, the host of the sports media podcast.
If you're interested in what's happening with all the places where you consume sports,
the sports media podcast has you covered.
I've been turning down interviews all week.
Hoda, copy, reached out, Oprah, George,
So I said, no, I was booked on the Deich podcast before the Taylor Swift phenomenon.
I must live up to my responsibility.
Listen, wherever you get your podcasts.
Heath to Stefan Diggs have must start potential in 2026.
Potential, sure.
Expectations, no.
I would say, like, even with all the, and it's tough when the advanced stats and the accounting
stats just do not match up at all.
But even with those great advanced stats,
didn't have a game over 50 yards in the playoffs,
was below 50 yards and seven of his last nine games.
Like, yeah, I wish he had played all the snaps more often
so we could feel better about it.
But I think he's probably a bench receiver
that could be a big hit if everything goes perfect.
The Patriots are getting knocked a lot for who they've played in the playoffs,
but they have played arguably the three best defenses in football.
And now they're going to play arguably the four best.
best defenses in football. So, you know, Diggs didn't have a great postseason. May hasn't had a great
postseason. It faced the Chargers, Texans, and then the Broncos and crazy conditions.
Jamie, same question to you. Do you think Stefan Diggs, who'll be 32 next year, we'll have must-start
potential in 2026? No, but we also have to see what the Patriots do to, you know, enhance this
receiving corps, because I think if they run it back, clearly it's worked out well for them, but you're not,
I think, doing Drake made the service that he would need to get him, you know, and upgrade at that
position.
You know, so maybe it's Kyle Williams taking a step forward in his second season.
Maybe it's Kisham Booty, you know, being healthy and getting more than, you know,
four or five targets per game whenever it's been, you know, at his best.
He only, I think I had four games the season with five plus targets and he was great in
those five games, four or five games.
But Stefan Diggs at his age is not exactly shown you that he could be a consistent starter for
fantasy.
Why would you do that a year later, you know?
So some of the things that he's shown were still very good,
especially a year removed or not even a year removed from an ACL tear.
But again, I don't think he's getting better.
I think he's getting worse next year, you know,
just in terms of where he's probably trending.
So I think he said it best.
You know, you're going to get a very good bench receiver that at times you could start.
Certainly you can start in three receiver leagues for the most part,
but we feel comfortable starting in three receiver leagues.
But I don't think he gets he gets better in 2026 when hopefully the Patriots
add another pass catcher.
Are we 100% sure
Stefan Diggs is going to be on the Patriots?
Yeah, that's the other part of this.
My guess is he'll probably restructure his deal to stay
if that's something both sides want to do.
We have to see how this all finishes,
what's the offseason looks like for Diggs.
But they seem to love him.
Yeah.
And, you know, if the money's right,
I'm sure that they would like to bring him back.
And just for context,
I didn't say that because I think he's not good.
He has a $28 million cap hit next year and $9 million of its dead money.
Well, they did that deal when they acquired him.
They redid the deal when they acquired him to make it a one-year deal, essentially.
I think one thing I just want to point out about Diggs is that he's been, he's changed as a receiver.
He's now a slot guy.
You know, with the Texans, we saw this where they used him in the slot,
and he averaged over 15 PPR fantasy points per game with the Texans.
And for some of that, they had all three of their guys, Nico and Tank Dell.
For some of that portion, they had two of the guys.
And then he tore his ACL, Stefan Diggs, obviously.
But it had a good year with Houston, right?
We forget about that.
Over 15 PPR fantasy points per game in this new role for him.
And then he kind of continued that role with the Patriots being not an exclusive slot guy,
but over 50% of the time.
And he's not beating you downfield necessarily anymore.
He had 13 targets of 20 or more air yards this year.
in 17 games at Stefan Diggs.
With Buffalo, he was typically 23 or more,
not 13 targets of 20 more areas.
So it's just a different kind of player,
but he's been really good at it.
I think Heath, though, when you look at like,
oh, his metrics were so good,
I feel like so much of that
is an 83% catch rate,
which is just not going to happen again.
I'd be shocked.
Right.
So just kind of, I don't know, taints it a little bit.
But he had a good year, for sure.
All right.
And that's it for our five big questions.
Good job, guys.
Let's see.
We have a sixth big question.
You praising us for the answers, or you for the questions?
No, you for the answers.
Sixth big questions.
Were there any that didn't make the list, top five?
No, I didn't have any other questions.
No.
I guess I could have asked about, I mean, I was going to ask a question about Ken Walker.
R.J. Harvey?
Harvey, I don't even know what to say about R.J. Harvey anymore.
I'm not going to judge him too harshly going against the best run defense in football.
They want up there.
but Ken Walker,
sometimes you watch him,
you go, man, he is breathtaking.
Yeah, right?
But then the numbers weren't even good
at the end of the day.
Well, he's, touchdown run was sick.
He's veteran Trevionne Henderson.
Yeah.
Yeah, I think RJ Harvey might be kind of the same thing.
They kind of just always want to hit that home run.
Harvey had some really nice runs in this game.
They only went for eight or nine yards or something,
but terrible line at the end of the game.
And Walker's wasn't that great either.
But man, his touchdown was awesome.
He had some really nice plays.
He's a tricky guy.
I don't know what they're going to do with him.
If he's their lead guy, like I said,
I'm probably taking him in round two.
Lead guy with Charbonnet.
They run it back with the same duo.
Charbonnet is not going to be ready for X amount of months.
Yeah.
But if Charbonnet is back, I don't know.
They might just put him right back in that goal line roll.
You know?
It just depends when he's healthy.
It's not like...
They've got to have a third back.
It's not like Ken Walker cannot score from the goal line.
I don't understand.
He's done it before.
He's fine.
It's just an insult.
Kick in the teeth to the fantasy managers out there.
All right, let's go through some news and notes to end the show here.
We got Mike McCarthy going to the Steelers.
We have...
I didn't say this, and I'm sorry.
Jamie alluded to it.
Heath alluded to it.
Matthew Stafford did not commit to play.
playing in 2026.
You know, we're thinking he probably will.
He's saying, I just lost the game.
I can't commit to anything right now.
But he didn't commit to that.
McVeigh expects him to play, though.
Did he say he expects him to play, or he said, like, all right, if he said that.
I think it was more like, I'd be surprised if he's not playing along those lines.
Yes, I did call Ken Walker breathtaking.
And, yes, good reference to the Seinfeld episode where Elaine gets called breathtaking.
And so does the ugly baby.
Very good.
Do you want to hear something sad but funnyish related to Seinfeld?
Sure.
So my unfortunate situation, my friend just passed away last week and I had to speak at his funeral.
And he's a huge Seinfeld fan, my friend, Eric Moscoff.
And I was trying to think of like a way just to kind of make a, you know, something that he would appreciate, make a light.
So I read the Seinfeld scene from the whale.
and everybody appreciated when I pulled the title list out on the whole one.
And I had people come up to me afterwards.
I was like he needed that.
So anytime I see Seinfeld now, it's a little reference.
Oh, I can't believe you spoke.
I didn't know you spoke.
I'm sorry, Jamie.
You went through a really, really horrible week, unspeakable.
Yeah.
Oh, man.
We go to the doctor, everybody, please.
Yeah, right.
If you're not feeling well, get it checked out.
And we turned to football, right?
And fantasy football and podcasts and all that to get through it.
Miami promoted their past game coordinator Bobby Sloick to their offensive coordinator.
And he spent two seasons as the Texans offensive coordinator, one of them really encouraging, one of them not so much.
Heath, what do you make of this higher?
I guess we probably expect a little bit of continuity.
But with McDaniel gone, I'm not sure how much continuity.
I don't have a strong opinion on Sloick either way.
Once upon a time, we thought he was going to be one of the great young offensive minds.
So I don't think it's a bad thing.
I don't think we know that it's a good thing.
And it's all going to come down to who's playing quarterback.
Baltimore hired Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter to be their head coach.
The Giants hired former Titans defensive coordinator,
Dinard Wilson, to be their defensive coordinator.
The Packers hired Jonathan Gannon, who was the Cardinals head coach,
but before that, the Eagles defensive coordinator to be their new defensive coordinator.
The 49ers offensive coordinator, Clay Kubiak, is going to stay with the Niners.
Mentioned that Mike McDaniel could still take a head coaching job.
Arthur Smith is going to be the next offensive coordinator for the Ohio State Buckeyes.
Dawson Knox.
Great hire.
How about this?
Yeah.
Great hire.
Love it.
Honestly, I think that Arthur Smith might be a good coordinator, but for fantasy, he stinks.
Exactly. I think he's, yes, yes, he's a good coach.
So, you know, love it.
It's good.
I hope he has a long, illustrious college career.
Okay, Dawson Knox said that, Jamie, Dalton Kincaid is never healthy.
Dawson Knox said that Kincaid played the entire season with a torn PCL.
It's pretty incredible.
And we have the two knee injuries that he dealt with in his rookie season, 2024.
I know we got through talking about tight ends last week with his,
was it,
2023?
Was it rookie season?
I think so, right?
Yeah, so 2024 was the second year.
But that was the year he played with two knee injuries.
I'm sorry, whatever, whatever 2024 was, rookie year or second year.
He played through two knee injuries.
I think in the case of, of Kincaid, like,
once you get past the top two guys and then most likely the three young,
young tight ends going into their sophomore season plus Tucker Kraft.
That feels like it's going to be in some way, shape, or form the top six.
Then who's next?
Is it Kincaid?
Is it Pitts if he stays in Atlanta?
Is it somebody like Isaiah likely if he goes to an Atlanta or Kansas City if Travis Kelsey retires?
Is it George Kittle if he makes a miraculous recovery?
Like this is kind of where that unknown starts, at least for me, you know, tight end seven.
And I think Kincaid could easily be tight and seven.
just so that thing's the only other one who might be in the depth of the known is laporta assuming he's healthy
yes i'm sorry leporta if he's healthy would be in that top seven with their hiring of raw petzing
uh drew thank you for for reminding yeah and bow nix's recovery is going to take about 12 weeks
which is not bad and barry jackson of the miami herald thinks the dolphins will almost certainly release
Tyreek Hill. And that is all I just heard one of their beatwriters Omar Kelly on the radio before our show
started. He also suggested that Tyree Kill is gone. But he said from what he saw, his rehab is going
well ahead of schedule. And so I was thinking about this when we were talking about Adams and Evans.
Like that's another guy that's going to be very interesting depending on where he ends up.
If he's with the right team quarterback, et cetera, could be great value on draft day because I'm
guessing most people are going to just say, I don't want Tyree Kill. He's 30.
someone years old coming off this significant injury and could have some good value,
especially when he's reunited with Patrick Mahomes.
That will throw such a wrench into everything if he's reunited with Patrick Mahomes and
Travis Kelsey comes back.
Just like the rushy rice and trying to figure out where to rank Hill and whether Kelsey's
a starter, it's going to be a mess.
And Mahomes' health.
And Mahomes' health.
Tyreek Hill will be 32 on March 1st.
so he is a year younger than Evans and Adams.
That's it.
Thanks, everybody.
Jamie and I are about to do FFT Express
and talk about coaching news.
And we will talk to you on Wednesday
with a fresh episode.
We'll see football today.
See you then.
On podcasts.
