Fantasy Football Today - Five Big Topics and Bears-Packers Recap (12/13 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: December 13, 2021

A.J. Dillon or Aaron Jones rest of season? Are they more reliable than David Montgomery? We recap Bears-Packers and then give you the injury updates (12:00) you'll need for Week 14 ... Kicking off our Five Big Topics with Ezekiel Elliott (18:00)! Start or Sit this week at the Giants? Then we'll go through the list of available handcuffs and tell you which ones to prioritize (23:00) ... How much do we trust Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin going forward (26:00)? What lessons have we learned about roles and passing games throughout the 2021 season (33:15)? How should we be evaluating Jerry Jeudy's season and are we optimistic about his future (42:00)? ... Email us at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Kick off an exciting football season with BetMGM, an official sportsbook partner of the National Football League. Yard after yard, down after down, the sportsbook born in Vegas gives you the chance to take action to the end zone and celebrate every highlight reel play. And as an official sportsbook partner of the NFL, BetMGM is the best place to fuel your football fandom on every game day. With a variety of exciting features, BetMGM offers you plenty of seamless ways to jump straight onto the gridiron and to embrace peak sports action. Ready for another season of gridiron glory? What are you waiting for?

Get off the bench, into the huddle, and head for the end zone all season long. Visit BetMGM.com for terms and conditions. Must be 19 years of age or older. Ontario only. Please gamble responsibly. Gambling problem? For free assistance, call the Connex Ontario helpline at 1-866-531-2600.

BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. Tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races.

Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Beck. All right, everybody, what's going on? Welcome to your Monday edition of Fantasy Football Today. Packers with a 45-30 win. Aaron Jones gets all the fantasy points, but A.J. Dillon gets twice as many touches. So who do we prefer going forward?

We asked you on Twitter. We'll reveal those answers. You might not believe just how bad the situation has been for Jerry Judy as we talk about him and whether you should be dropping him at this point. But the passing offense is just not very good for him. Plus, Ezekiel Elliott against the Giants. Terry McLaurin, if he plays. And Antonio Gibson against the Eagles.

Who do we trust in the NFC East this week? I trust Chris Towers to give me the guidance I need. Hello, Chris. Thank you. I trust Chris Towers to give me the guidance I need. Hello, Chris. Thank you. I appreciate that. You are very welcome. I'm sure you're going to be helping us out, figuring out the Packers' backfield.

Let's start with that game and with this Twitter poll. So I posted their stats from last night, and those stats were A.J. Dillon, 15 touches. They were all carries for 71 yards, no catches. Aaron Jones, 8 touches, 5 carries for 71 yards. No catches. Aaron Jones, 8 touches. 5 carries for 35 yards and a touchdown. 3 catches for 30 yards and a touchdown.

Dillon also played more. I didn't include that in the poll. Who would you prefer rest of season in half PPR? And right now, 628 votes. 62% Aaron Jones. 38% A.J. Dillon. How about you?

I don't know which one I would prefer, and that's probably not a decision. I thought I said I trusted you to give us guidance. That's not a decision that too many people have to make, I would assume, but I view them both as low-end running back twos. Yesterday, I think this was an incredibly discouraging game from Aaron Jones perspective because I assumed after the bye with an extra week of rest, that knee would be healed and there would be no issues. He would be back to playing roughly his usual role.

And instead, he actually played fewer snaps than AJ Dillon and obviously was less involved in the running game and even though he was the only running back to be targeted in the passing game he had a eight percent target share roughly three on 37 pass attempts ran a route on fewer than half of Aaron Rodgers drop backs it was not a particularly encouraging game he got bailed out by touchdowns and this is a pretty good offense to be in if you need to got bailed out by touchdowns and this is a pretty good offense to be in if you need to be bailed out by touchdowns but like you can't expect to score two touchdowns every eight touches right so i i'm gonna have a hard time viewing aaron jones as anything more than you know the like 20th or 18th maybe best running back in fantasy,

Dylan will probably be a little lower. So I would rather have Jones. But it's a tough situation and it's pretty discouraging. Yeah, and if you want to say, who's the goal linebacker? Well, I would think most of the time based on yesterday that it would be Dylan,

but that wasn't the case. So they had a goal line situation early in the game where Dillon, and they both were in on first down. Dillon was in the backfield. Jones motioned out wide. I think there was an incomplete pass. Second down, Dillon got a carry, got stuffed. And I think there was a penalty,

and then they did second down again, and Dillon stayed in, and they threw incomplete for MVS. Third down, Aaron Jones came in, incomplete pass to someone, and then fourth down, touchdown to Lazard. I might have mixed up the results a little bit, but they both got in there. Then you had this drive, first drive of the second half, because A.J. Dillon only had three carries in the first half. He comes out, first drive of the second half. He gets all the work. Five carries. Gets them inside the 10. Gets them inside the five-yard line. First and goal. Aaron Jones

replaces him and gets the touchdown. But I think, I feel like if they had a first and goal and everybody were fresh and didn't need a break, based on yesterday, it seems to me like Dillon would be the guy on first and second down, Jones on third down. Just a guess. Dillon would be the guy on first and second down, Jones on third down.

Just a guess. Dillon got three snaps out of a... Sorry, they had 11 snaps inside the green zone, so from the 10-yard line and in. Dillon played seven of those snaps. Jones played five. Dillon got three carries from inside of the 10. Jones got one.

And he scored. Yeah. I just, you know, all the things you said, And Jones got one. And he scored. Yeah. So it's... I just, you know, all the things you said, I'm sorry, about the routes and the target share. I don't think that's going to be the case every week. He might have a higher target share next week. He might run more routes next week.

Right, right. But I'm just specifically talking about this week being discouraging. That doesn't necessarily mean it will be the case moving forward, but if you're looking for reasons to be optimistic about Aaron Jones, you're not really going to find them in this game. Are you going to start both of them at Baltimore next week? Are you going to start both of them ahead of Ezekiel Elliott at the Giants? That's going to be really tough because Zeke, I know he was disappointing

and Corey Clement got almost as many carries as him. Or actually got more carries, didn't he? No, it was 13 to 12 for Zeke. Zeke did have six targets, and generally speaking, he's going to catch more than 17% of the passes thrown his way most weeks. And so I think that passing game role was encouraging, but obviously coming off a long week, I expected a lot more from Ezekiel Elliott,

and this was really disappointing. Okay, you're going to start both Packers guys over David Montgomery. Montgomery gets Minnesota next week. No, I think I would go with Montgomery. Okay, Montgomery, somehow he had six catches for 39 yards that was the big surprise but 10 carries for 42 yards and you know i would call this certainly a non-ppr probably in half ppr a pretty disappointing game although 81 total yards isn't terrible um but he's not he's not a slam dunk no-brainer start is he

it's going to be really hard for me to go away from him with his workload like it's not like damian williams or khalil herbert is really cutting into his playing time you know a lot of those targets did come when they were trailing and uh you know late in the game when justin fields was throwing every down but like, like, they also only had, what, 23 rush attempts total in this game. He got 10 of them. And I have to suspect a healthy majority of Justin Fields' nine rushes were probably scrambles. So they didn't really run the ball very much in this game.

No, they didn't have the ball much. 25 minutes. Yeah, so that's probably not going to happen most weeks. And so I think he's still good for 15 carries. And the passing game usage the last couple of weeks has been really, really encouraging, especially this week with Justin Fields in.

Right, that was surprising. Justin Fields has not been throwing to him at all this season. Yeah, and I'll just tell you about Darnell Mooney. In eight games with Justin Fields in. Justin Fields has not been throwing to him at all this season. Yeah, and I'll just tell you about Darnell Mooney. In eight games with Justin Fields starting and finishing, because he left one game early, the Baltimore game. In those eight games, he has one game with

more than 64 yards. He has two games with more than 49 yards, or more than 45 yards. Mooney's rostered in 95% of leagues, started in 62% of leagues. I don't have a ton of faith in him next week, though. We'll have to reconsider because Minnesota is just awful against wide receivers.

But, you know, look, like I said going into the game, I didn't like Mooney. He had done most of his best work either without Allen Robinson or against the Detroit Lions, or both. And this felt like a terrible matchup. Next week's better. But you're still... I'm not going to be able to trust him as anything more

than a wide receiver three, and even that might be pushing it. And look at the touchdown passes that Justin Fields threw in this game. You had one, he had the little shovel pass that went for a touchdown for Grant, I believe. And then you had Bird coming out of the backfield and going yards after catch. This is a guy who barely ever throws touchdown

passes. I think he has six now. So it's just... It's a lot to ask. He's not really, he's just not really doing enough. And now Rob's going to have more targets than him this week. Yeah. That's a bad sign given the way this season has gone. All right, how concerned are you about Rodgers? Three straight games with 30 or more points,

but he said his toe is actually worse coming out of this game than it was going in. On a scale of one to 10, like a 5, but how many quarterbacks right now aren't higher than a 5 on the concern-o-meter? Like, seriously, Josh Allen, Tom Brady, Justin Herbert. I don't think you can say that about Allen right now. He's got the turf toe.

He was in a walking boot. That's right, yeah. And Brady's got the Saints this week. He's got the turf toe. He's in a walking boot. Brady's got the Saints this week. That's his kryptonite. Yeah. Those are my top three. Passing production has disappeared. There aren't that many quarterbacks that you can really trust

right now. That's really weird given the way the last few seasons have gone where it feels like there are 20 good quarterbacks most weeks. Now it feels like there's five. With Lamar Jackson being injured, I guess Kyler deserves to be in this discussion. Dak's struggling a little. I still have a lot of

faith in him. Dak has been bad though. Yeah, I still have faith in him. Only one game with multiple passing touchdowns in his last five, I believe. I think the Kupfer absence and the Lamb absences affect that, but what's the excuse last week or this week? I think the Cooper absence and the Lamb absences affect that. But what's the excuse last week or this week?

I think he is a must-start quarterback. Yeah, he's going through his struggles. That's okay. I probably think Patrick Mahomes is a must-start quarterback still. I don't feel confident in it. I think Aaron Rodgers right now deserves to be the number one quarterback. If not, you can it's I would say Brady or Allen if everyone's healthy I mean that's the concern

so Brady's the only one that's not hurt right now yeah it's true Brady I think maybe overall but I'm going to downgrade him just a little in my mental rankings because New Orleans just seems to have his number but either way he did have four touchdowns last time he faced them going to downgrade him just a little in my mental rankings because New Orleans just seems to have his number. But either way, I mean, he did have four touchdowns last time he faced them.

He did? Yeah. Oh, boy. He didn't. I mean, he had the two interceptions and they lost. But yeah, he had 375 yards and four touchdowns. Wow. There might have been some garbage time in there, but I don't know. They have the Bucks number and they certainly have Mike Evans' number.

That's going to be a fun one to talk about this week. But, all right, either way, we love Rodgers. He's great, and so is Devontae Adams with two touchdowns, even though he's playing a little hurt. And Lazard with a good game, but that was after three straight games with 20 or fewer yards.

You know what it is. You can't trust anybody other than Devontae Adams. All right. I think Adams might be back to being the number one wide receiver again. You can trust. Yeah, he's on fire. You can trust Chris with that newsletter.

Go to CBSSports.com slash newsletters and subscribe to the Fantasy Football Today newsletter and the other ones that we have as well. You get it delivered into your inbox every single day. Injury updates, rankings, start, sit, all this great content for you in your inbox for free. CBSSports.com slash newsletters. I always forget if it's singular or plural. I think they both get you there.

News and notes. Lamar Jackson, we're waiting to see on the severity of his ankle injury. Doesn't seem like it's too, too bad, but he might not play this week against Green Bay. Austin Eckler and Keenan Allen are expected to play on Thursday against Kansas City. Yeah, Eckler, Keenan Allen are expected to play on Thursday against Kansas city. Yeah. Eckler. I'm iffy.

Yeah. We'll see that. I know that's what, uh, Brandon Staley said today, but yeah, I don't, I don't know.

Brandon Staley's trustworthiness yet, but it didn't look like the kind of thing he would just be able to come back from three days later. I trust him more than Urban Meyer. I'll say that. That's because you're a loser, Adam. Oh my gosh. Josh Allen may have turf toe.

Cam Newton is going to start next week, but PJ Walker is going to play and they're facing Buffalo. And they may not have DJ Moore. Taylor Heineke... He has a hand-tray injury. Yes, he does. Taylor Heineke is going to start

if he's healthy at Philadelphia. Here's what Mike McCarthy said on Ezekiel Elliott and the workload. That was me being conservative. He was fine. He wanted to go back in. That was me being overcautious. Yeah, that's part of what I think it was,

but they were up, what, 23-0 at halftime or something in that game? Yeah, something like that. I think Washington may have gotten a field goal. But in the first half, Elliott had seven carries and Corey Clement had six. So, you know, it's not necessarily just that they were up big. Yeah, I know it's probably not this, but it just seems like they're trying to protect his feelings or something because every week they're just giving us this nonsense,

this optimistic nonsense on Ezekiel Elliott, and it's never true. He practiced in full. He's off the injury report. He's good to go. He's going to get a huge load this week. And then he's hobbling around, can barely run against New Orleans two weeks ago. Yesterday, I thought he actually looked better, but they got up big. They took him out. I believe that is

part of it. But you can't trust anything. I'm sorry. You can't trust anything they say about zeke right but 13 carries and six targets most weeks in this offense that's going to be a must-start fantasy running back yeah for most players yeah but even for yeah given his goal line role yes like six targets that's that's a must- start player and it's it's frustrating that he was not particularly good in this one he only caught one of those six targets but i don't think there's anything to that part of it yeah even acknowledging that like yes he doesn't

look great washington has a really damn good run defense one of the best in football this week the giants they just lost their best interior defensive their best maybe their best player on defense leonard williams he's going to be out for a while and they have a bad run defense to begin with so that's our first topic we'll get jacob's thoughts on that in a moment uh kareem hunt looks like he's not going to play this week as of right now he's got the raiders on sunday kareem hunt probably out but it doesn't seem like a long-term thing you know i i know we're gonna we've got a question about stashes coming up. I will just say, Dearness Johnson, if he's not the number one stash, and he's probably not,

he's certainly up there because we've seen he has league-winning potential. And right now, he might be an ankle injury away from being a top five or top ten running back in the fantasy playoffs. Yeah, he just, unfortunately, he needs, well, it's a weird thing to say, unfortunately, but he needs two injuries. But one of them already happened.

One of them is currently happening. It may not be like a four-week injury, but who knows? It may be. I don't know if we've seen the MRI. I haven't seen it. Chris MRI results. Is that,

why did that sound so weird? They're going to mail it to me. They're going to email it to me as soon as. Yeah. I don't think we've heard about the MRI results. Melvin Gordon has a sprained beard. Melvin Gordon has a sprained thumb, but he shouldn't be limited by it.

Terry McLaurin head injury. We'll see if he can make it back for Philadelphia. That's when we're going to talk about a little bit later. DJ Moore, day-to-day with a hamstring injury. He's at Buffalo this week. Noah Fant got dinged up. Rex Burkhead, he... What was the update on him? That he could have come back? Let me see. There's

an update on Rex Burkhead, for those of you who are starting Rex Burkhead. Emmanuel Sanders left in the third quarter. You might not have Tyron Smith this week. Yeah, go ahead. That is potentially important because Gabriel Davis has a lot of potential. They love using him in the red zone.

If he's going to play the Emmanuel Sanders role, Gabriel Davis could be a really, really interesting boomer boss wide receiver three. Where is my Rex Burkhead's day-to-day? All that for nothing. The Dolphins really, really interesting boomer bus wide receiver three. Where is my... Rex Burkhead's day-to-day.

All that for nothing. The Dolphins running backs, that one I skipped. The three of them now have tested positive for COVID. That would be Ahmed Gaskin and now Phillip Lindsey. They don't have anyone currently on their active roster at running back, right? Because Patrick Laird, was he placed on IR? Not sure about Laird,

but Malcolm Brown could practice this week. We don't know who's going to be the running back. They got the Jets. This is actually an interesting one here. This is going to be a... Yeah, Patrick Laird's on IR. Gaskin, Lindsey, and Sivan Ahmed are on the COVID list, and Malcolm Brown is still on IR.

So technically, they don't have a running back currently on their active roster who is eligible to play. They did work out Lamar Miller, I believe. They did. So that's very exciting. And there are a bunch of defensive injuries, offensive line injuries.

Green Bay's offensive line is just really, really beat up. They lost their right tackle yesterday. Chicago lost its left tackle yesterday. A couple of secondary injuries for the Bears as well. So the Bears had bad injuries yesterday. Left tackle Jason Peters, linebacker

Roquan Smith, and two defensive backs as they play Minnesota. Could be a big game for Kirk Cousins, assuming the weather cooperates Monday night. Alright, we're going to bring in Jacob Gibbs now to talk about our five big topics for this Monday afternoon. This one comes from Fantasy

Football Dad. Can Zeke be started in the Fantasy playoffs? Jacob, the first word goes to you. Zeke is at the Giants this week, and then Washington again, and then Arizona. Those are his next three matchups. Starter sit Ezekiel Elliott this week.

Yeah, I think you're starting the next two weeks for sure. You guys talked about it. It seemed like they maybe are limiting him a little bit in terms of the amount of carries they gave him, but his snap rates were pretty much right in line with what we've seen and I would expect him to get back to normal before too long, so I'm not too

worried. I think I'm still starting. He's the worst running back in the world right now. I mean, he's so bad. Can we talk about that? He's not Zeke. He doesn't have a carry of longer than 11 yards in seven straight games. That is terrifying. Yep.

No, it's bad. He just doesn't look good. But part of it for me is just I'm pretty talent agnostic when it comes to running backs. I think, look, he might be really, really bad in which case. But I don't know. We saw Kalen Balazs be pretty good for fantasy last week, and he's kind of like the platonic ideal of a bad running back

in most fantasy players' eyes. So I just think like situation matters so much and the fact that he got six targets the fact that uh he's probably still the primary goal line option you know good offense i yeah i think you're gonna have to start him against the giants okay but if he doesn't get six targets i understand that the yards per carry might not matter that much and the lack of explosiveness in most weeks, but if Tony Pollard's back next week,

I don't know that he's getting more than 13 or 14 carries. It's not like he's a workhorse. It's not like he's Antonio Gibson who might get 20. He's had six targets or more in three of his last four games, too. They've thrown so many passes in a lot of those games, and some of those were without Cooper and without Lamb. that was my big concern into the new orleans game where only had two catches in that game now i was surprised that he got as many targets as he did against washington when they had

this big lead uh but yeah i don't know i mean the giants do give up a lot a lot of receiving yards to running back sixth most in the nfl and iboys think he needs to kind of stopped throwing the ball down the field. It's very, you're seeing a very similar trend with what Josh Allen has happened. What has Patrick Holmes has had happen. And it's hurt their wide receivers. You know,

see lamb's been pretty unproductive lately, but you know, I think that helps Ezekiel Elliott. I think, you know, he's a pretty good bet for five targets in any given game. Okay, so we say we're going to start him. I'm telling you, I would have trouble.

If Miles Gaskin makes it back and faces the Jets, I would have trouble with that. I think I might go Gaskin there. I would start Ezekiel Elliott over Rashad Penny, who I know a lot of people are going to pick up and think about starting this week. And I think he's probably going to end up being a top 20 running back in my

rankings. I haven't started yet, but I think Ezekiel Elliott's a better fantasy option than Rashad Penny, just because I don't think Rashad Penny's going to have very much role in the passing game at all. So you're talking about, he's going to need big plays in the running game and touchdowns. And I think as he, he'll, he'll, he'll probably has a better chance to score a touchdown in any given week than Rashad Penny. Yeah. And Penny's got the Rams. So they're

run defense. All right. Any final thoughts, Jacob, are you good? No, I think where you guys place them makes sense. I agree. It honestly would be tough if Gaskin is back and he's like the only guy standing in Miami's backfield. And if Tony Pollard is back, I think I would be starting Gaskin over him, which is nuts. But yeah, I think he's right on the fringe of the top 15, top 20. If Pollard is back, which is,

you're basically just placing the bet on the offense, hopefully producing a little bit better. And then yeah, him continuing to be targeted the way that he has been. Yep. One more thing about Gaskin. If Malcolm Brown plays and Gaskin loses his goal line work, which is possible,

then I'm not going to start him really against anyone. Okay, we'll take a break here on Fantasy Football today. And when we come back, we'll talk about handcuffs, the best ones to stash for the Fantasy Playoffs, Washington's Fantasy Football outlook for the next three weeks and jerry judy and mistakes that we made and lessons we learned we've got enough time for that we'll be right back it's the season for new styles and you love to shop for jackets and boots so when you do always make sure you get cash back from Rakuten. And it's not just clothing and shoes. You can get cash back from over 750 stores on electronics, holiday travel, home decor, and more.

It's super easy. And before you buy anything, always go to Rakuten first. Join free at Rakuten.ca. Start shopping and get your cash back sent to you by check or PayPal. Get the Rakuten app or join at rakuten.ca. R-A-K-U-T-E-N dot C-A. All right, you got a roster spot that you don't really, you know, it's going to waste right now? Well, why not pick up a handcuff, whether it's yours or someone else's?

Who are the best ones to get? Jacob, what do you think? Who are the best handcuffs? I think Dearness Johnson was a really good call by Chris. I heard that right as I hopped on. I think Justin Jackson is somebody who's probably going to be pretty popular after what we just saw. Khalil Herbert, of course, comes to mind.

They're just guys we've seen could potentially play a really, really large role if somebody in front of them gets hurt. Samaja Piran, same thing there. Mixon's been a little bit banged up lately. Yeah, I don't know. Do you guys have any names I didn't mention there? Many. Many.

They're not that good, but Devante Booker, 45%. We know what the role would be, and Barkley gets hurt all the time. Boston Scott and Jordan Howard. I think I would go with Jordan Howard. It just seems like he was working ahead of Boston Scott when they were both healthy and Sanders was out, and Sanders gets hurt all the time.

That's so boring. Peyton Barber, 3% rostered. Josh Jacobs gets hurt every other week, and there's no more Kenyon Drake. Yeah, I mean, look, Zach Moss, inactive two of the last three games, so he's useless right now. But if Singletary were to get hurt,

I feel like they'd probably go back to Moss instead of Breida. And who likes Latavius Murray? Even if Singletary got hurt, I'm not sure Moss would be a top 24 running back for me. No, but I don't think you have to be... It just is not a good situation for running backs. To be part me. No, but I don't think you have to be... It just is not a good situation for running backs. To be part of this discussion. I don't know that you have to be a Moss star.

Sure, sure, yeah. I don't mind having him on my roster. So who are the best? You don't need the roster spot. So Dearness Johnson, I think Devante Booker, Samaje, P. Ryan. Oh, Ronald Jones. Ronald Jones, yeah.

He would not have... Unless Gio's out for a while, there's no way Jones would have that passing role that Fournette has, in my opinion. But still, he'd be the starter for the Bucs. And Khalil Herbert, I'm not sure. I know Jacob said that. Those are some names.

Okay, let's move on. Let's talk about Washington. Chris, I give you... Does Mark Ingram count? Probably too rostered. Yeah, too rostered. I went Ingram count? Probably two roster. Yeah. Two roster. I went with fewer than 50% roster. Okay.

I don't know if the Steelers have a, uh, a true backup or if it would just return to being a committee. Yeah. Snail. Yeah. McFarlane. Yeah.

Whatever it may be. Okay. Now onto Washington, Chris J Dub wants to know, what is Washington's fantasy playoff outlook? Can you trust Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson? And they have the Eagles, the Cowboys, and the Eagles in their next three games.

I don't know what the word trust means when it comes to fantasy football. That's the term we use a lot can you trust this guy and it's like i can't trust terry mcclure and he's been super inconsistent this season he's playing with a mediocre to bad quarterback he's got a primary downfield role which is relatively low uh efficiency not low efficiency but low completion percentage role so you're gonna have a lot of week-to-week fluctuations there depending on if he hits on a big play uh he's still going to be a top 24 wide receiver for me if he's healthy though just because the the weekly upside is so high like

he's the kind of guy who just needs to hit on one big play and he gets those opportunities every week and gibson you know the the usage was disappointing for antonio gibson this week for sure there's no question about it 10 carries what two targets um yeah two targets but the role was actually pretty good he played a big snap share he ran a route on 28 of 42 pass plays obviously that's with janie mckissick out but they are starting to trust him in that role that they never have before and so i'm gonna have trouble going away from gibson even acknowledging that if mckissick's back his passing game role will likely be yeah that's huge somewhat limited know, he's not even a top 15 running back per game. That's not surprising. He's 20th.

And I don't even... If you take away the two games, the previous two games, when he had, what, he had 12 catches in those two games. Now, McKissick played one of them. He left late. But it was against Seattle. I don't even want to know what he was with McKissick healthy.

Because, you know, he wasn't getting a lot. He had two catches a game. I don't know, because you talk about his role, but what you like about his role is going away if McKissick is back. It kind of went away this week, too. He only played three of 16 snaps in the two-minute offense. Compared to last week, he played 7 of 7. And then this isn't related to the

receiving role but he didn't play a single snap in the red zone this week um they gave all those to jump and williams off the street game three carries um it is weird um so those are two just some kind of underlying discouraging ones there he fumbled in this game right and there was like a period where he was kind of uninvolved after that. So I think that could be part of it. I mean, yeah. Even this four-game stretch he had recently,

he averaged 107.5 yards per game in those four games, but it was on 28 touches. He wasn't actually playing all that well. It's just he was getting a ton of touches, and you're kind of going to need that moving forward. The way he's played this season and the way that offense has worked, he kind of needs a volume to be a must-start running back. But I do think, i guess what yesterday showed

us was he's not game script independent which is what we've known about gibson for his entire career but we thought maybe that was starting to change clearly it hasn't and so it's um you know it kind of kind of is what it is he's going to be like a top 15-ish running back. I think I would start him over Ezekiel Elliott, but I think the status quo has somewhat returned for him. I'm just going to tell you, I don't trust either of these guys, especially McLaurin, and especially against the Eagles. And that's two of their next three matchups. So first of all, I'm just assuming he's going to play. He might not. Don't know what his status is.

But let's just say he plays. The Eagles allow the third fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. There have only been, I want to say, four wide receivers all year who have had more than eight targets against them. They just don't see a lot of targets. And there have only been five wide receivers

who have had a good game against them. Five wide receivers with more than 66 yards against the Eagles, and listen to who they are. Debo Samuel, Tyreek Hill, Antonio Brown, Keenan Allen, and then one surprise was Elijah Moore a couple of weeks ago. Four of those five wide receivers, the only five who had more than 66 yards all year against the Eagles, who by the way have Darius Slay, who's playing incredibly well this year. Four of them had 12 to 13 targets. I just don't see that happening for McLaurin. It hasn't happened in a very long time. The Eagles have had

35 minutes of possession in four of their last six games. So Washington really needs to do well. They need to win. They need to basically compete or win to have the ball enough against the Eagles. And if they do that,

that usually means they're going to Gibson. So I just don't see a ton of scenarios where McLaurin's getting a lot of targets. And that's typically what you need to have a good game against the Eagles. And that is two of his next three matchups. So I am going to actively look to sit him. I'm not kidding.

If he plays, I might start KJ Osborne over him. But here's the thing. Yes? Would you start Michael Pittman over him? He's been pretty bad for a while. They have the Patriots? No. Would you start Marquise Brown over him?

Not with Huntley, but with... Maybe. Definitely with Jackson. With Huntley against the Packers, probably not. Would you start Brandon Cooks over him? I would. Who do they play this week? They play the... someone

bad. Yeah, I have no idea. Sorry. Is it Jacksonville? Jacksonville. Yes, I would. Yeah, you'd start Cooks over him. To build on Adam's point about the Eagles... Darnell Mooney? No, not Mooney. No.

Devontae Smith? Probably. No. Devontae Smith? Probably. Probably. The point being... I understand what you're saying. It's about wide receivers. I get it. Wide receiver kind of stinks right now.

Go ahead, Jacob. It's just a really, really bad spot. Obviously, you get what they've done against receivers in general, but they're also really good at taking away what McLaurin does specifically. They have the league's lowest opponent average depth of target at 5.47. The next lowest is 6.25. No one else is even below 6, and they're well below it. They turn every quarterback into Alex Smith.

Yeah, they play a ton of zone as well, which McLaurin has struggled against historically. So it's really a gross spot for them. Yeah, when Hurts is playing, and the way they've run their offense with Hurts, they're just a bad matchup because they run the ball, they bleed the clock, and they're not impenetrable, but no running back has done very well against them recently.

It's working for them. It's working for them. All right, from Joreen Gaynor, what are some lessons learned and mistakes made? Chris, I couldn't think of anything. So I just... So I was thinking last night, Hunter Renfro is probably the player I've been most wrong about in season.

And that one's really tough because you're kind of seeing something similar with Iman Ross St. Brown over the last few weeks that we were with Renfro for a while where it was like he's been bad but he's been good for fantasy or at least pretty good for fantasy because he's getting so much volume but what happened with hunter renfro is his usage changed dramatically and not just because he's getting a ton of targets now, but because I believe he had no games with more than 75 air yards in the first 10 games of the season.

And I believe he has more in two of his last three. And so he's just seeing a completely different role. And that's partially because Darren Waller's out. But, you know, one of the lessons, and I think Mike Williams is also a decent example of that, at least the few weeks before this season, this past week, where he looked like he had gone back to being just the deep threat version of Mike Williams. And then for a couple of weeks, it changed. And it's just a reminder, I guess, that roles aren't static.

You know, like that's a thing that you need to keep in mind and that I probably not done a good enough job with because it's really hard to predict when roles will change. But, you know, when you're talking about fantasy results, we're talking about trying to predict the future. We're talking about ranges of outcomes. We're not talking about one thing that's going to happen. And so with Hunter Renfro, I kind of foreclosed on the idea that he could see in a valuable enough role to be better than what I thought he would be. And that was always

within the realm of possibility and within the range of outcomes. So that's one thing is just thinking more probabilistically. Okay. And Jacob, any lessons learned so far? Yeah, I think Chris's point made sense. And mine's sort of similar. I think I became too attached to some takes. I have a tendency to do this that are based more on speculation or assumptions of how I think the player could like thrive within the offense or how i think

it you know makes sense that it would it would work um and i guess it's just like kind of assuming rational coaching doesn't always work out specifically jacksonville is what comes to mind um and specifically the viscous chanel i was really excited for this year and they've just totally misused him. It's been really weird the way that they have utilized him, and it's been really frustrating to track throughout the year. When they have him in the slot role like they did at the beginning of the year, they only play him in three receiver sets.

But then when they moved him into DJ Chark's role, he played all the time. He would play in two receiver sets. And so they think he's capable of doing that, but like they won't do it when he's playing the slot. I don't know why they can't just make him like a slot plus guy, like Cooper Cup or Godwin or whatever. Just, I don't know, little things like that. Washington's offense, I feel like a lot of us got way too excited about

because we speculated on what it could be with Antonio Gibson playing the larger role that they told us he would. We kind of ignored clear red flags about Curtis Samuel's health. We just kind larger role that they told us he would um we kind of ignored clear red flags about Curtis Samuel's health um just kind of expected that they would clear up or maybe we thought you know 40 year old Ryan Fitzpatrick was just going to stay healthy all year and productive all year and like there's just a lot of ifs and it like the speculation of what it could be is awesome but like there's a lot of risk that we just ignore and I don't I I guess I want to be more sure.

And like Cincinnati, like it's just like clear, really talented receivers stepping into a pass heavy role. We feel good about the whole situation. There's not, there's not a lot of ifs that have to happen for it to work out. Yeah. Yeah.

Except they were really run heavy. That was to start the year. And at the beginning, no one projected that really. No, but they've all also given Chase and Higgins like a 50% target share between them pretty much all season.

So even when they weren't super pass heavy, they were still funneling a ton of targets towards those guys. I think the point that Jacob brings up about not assuming rational coaching or assuming that we're smarter than coaches or assuming that they're just going to do what we want. I think the obvious example would be the Javante Williams week running joke

where it was like five, six weeks in a row. I think this is the week that Javante Williams is going to take a step forward and really be the lead back. And we saw with Melvin Gordon out, Melvin Gordon comes back from his injury and they still split snaps 50-50. And Gordon actually had a significantly larger number of touches. It was like 24 to 17 or something.

Can we share this quote? Oh, I'm sorry. It's just like, we want coaches to do specific things, but you also have to keep in mind when you're making your roster decisions and all that, that we don't have any say. And so you have to,

you should have compelling evidence to believe a player's role is going to change, and that's why it's really hard. When I talk about the Hunter Renfro thing, it's not like they came out and said, all right, we're going to use Hunter Renfro as a legitimate number one wide receiver now. I guess you could have assumed with Darren Waller.

No, you couldn't have assumed that. What he's done has been pretty surprising. He's never been that guy. He's been an inefficient move-the-chains guy for his whole career. So it's... Fantasy football is hard. Yeah, it is.

Listen, I want to share this quote from Melvin Gordon. He was asked about his contract expiring. And he said, Hell yeah, I'm thinking about it. I would love to be here. I don't think many people want me here as far as the fans. I want to be here. I've been seeing a lot of stuff. And I understand. I get it. I would love to be here. I don't think many people want me here as far as the fans. I want to be here. I've been seeing a lot of stuff, and I understand.

I get it. But I love it here. I love the guys here. I'd love to be here. Regardless of the hate right now, I think it's mostly because of fantasy. The fantasy football get people a little tight in the rear end. He knows that we all watch Javante Williams. The messed up thing is he's been good.

It's not like Melvin Gordon has been some kind of disaster. He's playing well. I know, but did you see Javante Williams' touchdown? That guy gets hit by two guys at the two-yard line, and he bulldozes them into the end zone. I know Gordon has been good. Javante Williams has been better, is better, is special. We want to see what can happen if you give this special player that work.

Let's acknowledge that that's true. Let's acknowledge that that is 100% true. Good. I acknowledge that. How many yards do you think the Broncos are losing on a per-game basis by splitting carries between the two of them instead of going 65-35 for Javante. I don't know. Like 10? I don't know.

10? Yeah, I don't know. I don't know. But you're costing yourself... Every time Javante Williams touches the ball, he's got much more of a chance to make a big play than Melvin Gordon does. You're costing yourself that ability. Yeah. Alright, let's move on. One thing I'd like to talk about is

lessons learned is really, I think waiver wire goes into this as well, but drafting is, take a look at the best wide receivers in fantasy. Many of them are on teams with reliable quarterbacks. For best ball, I think it's a little bit different, but you're going to deal

with inconsistencies when you have great wide receivers with bad or bad quarterbacks. Quarterbacks don't throw much, let's say unreliable passing games. DJ Moore, Chase Claypool, I think is the lesson for me. As much as I wanted to buy into him, he basically needs Ben Roethlisberger to throw 40 or more times to have a good game. Terry McLaurin is a great example of this buying into lions wide receivers it's still going to be a little risky even though saint brown looks like he's going to be this model of consistency don't be shocked if golf turns into a pumpkin next week no this is what i said on the fft show today if a wide receiver's role is predicated on a pass catching running back

being out which i think it is with monroe saint brown he's been really good with deandre swift out that probably means that wide receiver is not that good and i think amon ross st brown is like he okay i did the hunter renfro thing earlier so i do want to point out that amon ross st brown looks a lot like hunter renfro right now but like the previously boring bad version of hunter renfro so i don't want to foreclose on the possibility that Amon Ross St. Brown could make a similar leap. But I think it's pretty unlikely. I think he's just a guy. He's good at getting open within like

seven yards of the line of scrimmage, but I don't think he provides much more than that. Alright, let's go to our last topic here. It's from BadaBingBadaBoom. One of our best five Big Topics contributors. I'm going to give you the award BadaBingBadaBoom. What to make of Jerry Judy I'm going to give you the award, BadaBing, BadaBoom. What to make of Jerry Judy? And Jacob, I know you have a lot to say here on Judy,

who had five catches for 47 yards on six targets against the Lions. What do you think of Judy right now? Yeah, I feel like general sentiment is down on Judy, but I'm actually pretty encouraged by what we've seen from him, at least from a long, like long-term perspective here. The important thing to realize is there's a clear role change from his rookie year to now, like one of the most significant role changes of any fantasy relevant receiver. I would say his average depth of target is down from 13.5 yards as a rookie to 8.1, which is a huge drop. And, and so like, we've seen just a huge change

in the way that he produces his catch rate is up from 47 to 79%. And he's drawing targets at a higher rate, but they're, you know, short yardage targets. And so there's not nearly as much of a ceiling, um, as we've seen in the past. Um, but one thing that has really impressed me and stood out and it's not a huge sample size, about 190 routes. So I'd like to see what the numbers look like at the end of the year. Um, but he's been pretty efficient while still running these short routes. His yard per out run rate is up from 1.66 as a rookie to 2.8, uh, 2.08. Um, and among 34 wide receivers with an ADOT below nine yards, um, his 8.1, uh, he ranks fifth in yards per outrun ahead of guys like chris godwin keenan allen um jaylen waddle robert woods and so i that stands out to me especially playing in an offense

is not all that efficient through the year um i think really he's done everything you could ask for him given the situation he's in but the route tree that denver has him and currently really does limit his fantasy upside quite a bit i think the guys who are like highly fantasy relevant with that type of route tree are either like absolute like league premier target hogs or they're attached to really really good offenses it's basically just like Cooper Cup, Debo Samuel, Keenan Allen and Godwin and so it seems like the best case outcome for Judy playing the role that he's playing in like a pretty low passing volume offense is something similar to someone we've talked about at length now is Hunter Renfro, or maybe a slightly better version of like Jarvis Landry or Sterling

Shepard or something like that. Like that, that's kind of how he's being used. I know we don't like that because he's such an excellent route runner. And I think he could be, you know, dominant down the field, but like, I think if you understand and contextualize the way he's being used, that sort of expectation makes a lot more sense. And if that's the expectation, it doesn't feel like quite as much of a disappointment. The results still have been bad, but the targets and yardage are usually going to be there.

And assuming he scores a touchdown at some point, he should be productive, I think. And the Broncos should have to pass more in their upcoming games. They've got some games that could definitely be playing from behind. And so I think production should be better than what we've seen recently. And in long term, I'm really not worried at all. Yeah, and I'll add, he's kind of, one thing we're seeing from him is he's now shown potential in two very different usage cases and one thing that's been consistent through both is that he's been really good with the ball in his hands

he averaged 5.5 yards after catch per reception in 2020 he's at five this year that's a little more discouraging just because he was making you know it's harder to get yak on passes down the field generally speaking and so And so that's been... You would hope that it would be a little higher this year with the shorter targets, but I think generally speaking, he's just shown a lot of ability to be very, very good in a handful of different situations that should lead to success if, and when the passing game gets better.

So Aaron, Aaron Rogers, please. Yeah. I know Jamie's been banging this drum, but buy low on your Broncos and dynasty because they have a chance to get Rogers. Maybe who knows Russell Wilson?

I don't, I really feel like probably not a stay, probably not both, but they, they have a chance. They can upgrade their passing game in his last six games. Russell Wilson. I really feel like Roberts is going to stay. Probably not both. But they have a chance. They can upgrade their passing game. In his last six games, he's played six games since returning from an injury.

Jerry Judy has a 20% target share. They're averaging 30 pass attempts per game. If that was for a full season, that would be the fourth fewest in the NFL. And they'd be 24th in passing yards per game. They're averaging 209 passing yards per game on 30 pass attempts per game. Maybe a little bit more than 209 because Drew Locke threw for like 17 yards

or something like that. But that's over six games. So 210, 211, whatever. It's garbage. And this is exactly what I'm talking about. It's an offense. I'm not saying that bridgewater is bad but he's just not good for fantasy and uh it's hurting jerry judy

okay well that's uh that's our show thanks guys thanks for tuning in everybody i thought it was a good show adam i thought it was great show so down on it no it was great i had a good time it was a really nice time j good time. Really nice time. Jacob and Chris and all of you watching, please hit the like button before you leave. And we'll talk to you tomorrow with the waiver wire on fantasy football.