Fantasy Football Today - Five Big Topics and Major Injuries (10/11 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: October 11, 2021

Devontae Booker or Darrel Williams off waivers (2:50)? After we get that out of the way, let's recap the Bills-Chiefs game (6:00) with our thoughts on Zack Moss, Stefon Diggs and Dawson Knox ... News and notes (14:30) and we get into our Five Big Topics beginning with our start/sit philosophies regarding matchups (22:00). Do you always start your studs? How often do we play the matchups? ... What do we expect from the Seahawks WRs with Russell Wilson out (27:10)? Are we buying into the Giants offense or is it best to stay away (30:50)? What's up with the underachieving Year 2 WRs (34:30) and which draft philosophy seems to be paying off through five weeks (42:00)? ... Email us at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. Tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races.

Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Beck. Look out, AFC and the rest of the football. The Buffalo Bills are really good. They are 4-1. How did they lose to the Steelers, by the way? They're 4-1.

And when you consider the tiebreaker, they're really three games up on the Chiefs, if it comes down to that. And the Chiefs are in last place. Welcome to the show. I'm saying all this before Jacob Gibbs gets on because he was, I believe, at the game last night. Big Chiefs fan. We'll talk to him in a little bit.

I'm Adam Azer. I got Chris Towers here on this edition of Fantasy Football today. Chris, are the Bills your current Super Bowl favorite? Current Super Bowl favorite? No. No, I think you would still have to go with the tampa bay buccaneers as the favorite for the super bowl i know they've got a lot of injuries in the secondary but um yeah i think you still go with them okay sorry arizona cardinals fans yeah well i guess

probably should consider them too right five and oh and also a team that looks pretty good on defense who else we got tampa bay's 4-1, Green Bay's 4-1, Cowboys 4-1, Tennessee leads their division at 3-2, Chargers are 4-1, Ravens are 3-1. Chargers are pretty good too. They're fun.

Alright, let's see. Who leads the NFL? Which team leads the NFL in point differential? What do you think? I just looked that up. And it's Buffalo by 46 points. They've outscored their opponents by 21.8 points per game, I think. And I think they only had two or three games last year that they won by 10 or more.

They had a lot of close wins last year. Yeah. And it's a little bit fantasy relevant because it's helping zach moss who is the fourth quarter clock killer he has 16 carries in the fourth quarter in his four games most of any quarter and and devin singletary has seven in those four games so let's talk about buffalo 38 and kansas city 20 and we got some big injury news here. Clyde Edwards-Ziller has a sprained MCL. He will be out a few weeks. Their upcoming schedule is you'll be scrambling to get Darryl Williams on your team. At Washington, at Tennessee, Giants, Packers.

That's their next four. At Washington, at Tennessee, Giants, and Packers. So, yeah, I guess we could take the injury approach because Travis Kelsey also got hit in the head. Tyreek Hill was a little banged up. But Daryl Williams, is he the clear number one waiver wire priority going into week six? Wow, six already.

No, no, I think Devontae Booker is. I mean, we'll see what the extent of Saquon Barkley's injury is. Thankfully, it didn't look like a high ankle sprain, but we'll know more you know hopefully later today or tomorrow but i think davante booker is much more likely to dominate snaps and touches for the giants than daryl williams is for the chiefs i saw dave tweeted after clad edwards e-layer left the game williams played 76 of the snaps. Jarek McKinnon played 24. It'll be interesting to see what that looks like, you know,

with a week to prep because, you know, Williams is not someone who one, he's not like a gigantic back. He's not small, but you know, he's never really done like a full workload. And so only in the playoffs.

Yeah. He's, he's actually never had a regular season game with more than 10 carries. Yeah, and the playoffs, it was what? One out of the three games that he started, and he only had 13 carries in both of the two bigger games for him. I think he started two games. Well, yeah, it doesn't matter.

You're right. He had 13 carries in the first two playoff games. And he performed. He did really well. You know, based on what he did in those two games, 13 carries, 78 yards, plus four catches against Cleveland, 13 carries, 52 yards and a touchdown, one catch against Buffalo. That, you told me he was going to do that, get 13 carries. He would be my number one priority.

Based on what we've read so far, you think we don't know the timeline on Barkley because they're I mean they're hoping for maybe maybe one or two weeks I don't know I feel like Clyde Abrazil looks like a little more extended absence I mean it said miss a few weeks is the report from Adam Schefter Ian Rappaport one of those two guys it's always one of those two guys yeah but the injury wasn't as bad as it looked was the report they expect him to miss a few weeks I don't know if he's going to go on IR but if he doesn't go on IR then you probably assume he'll be back in time for week eight eight yeah so we'll see you know what that looks like but no if given this a similar

amount of time missed I would rather have Devante Book. Okay. The way the Giants have used their running backs, we saw with... I'm blanking on the name now. Oh, come on, man. Wayne Goldman, yes, last season. He did have that five or six game stretch. He was getting consistent work. So I think, assuming they get somewhat similar amounts

of time as the lead back or the whatever lead back you want to call it quasi lead back I think both I think Devante Booker will be better than Darrell Williams one of the determining factors for me I think would be Daniel Jones because I know Glennon was okay and Booker

actually scored two touchdowns with Glennon in the game the first play was at the goal line right after the Jones injury you're not going to know if Jones is playing next week or this upcoming week when you make your waiver claims on Tuesday or Wednesday but if they're facing the Rams and the Panthers with Mike Glennon I'm not going to be too excited about Devante Booker he's going to have to score I think to save his game but that's for that's a topic for the Tuesday show. Let's talk about the fantasy stuff from this game.

By the way, Tyreek Hill just saw not expected to miss time. He has a minor knee injury. Still no update on Kelsey. Josh Allen, three games where he's been kind of meh and two huge games with 40 points, but you put it together,

he's having a huge year. He looks great. What do you think about Moss? Nobody's going to have faith to start Singletary, but Moss, he had the three catches but i don't know it it was it was five of his 11 carries came on the last drive of the game when they were up by 18 points they had the same amount of carries before that singletary and moss so is this encouraging for moss like how do you view him going forward he's a number three running back for me i have a hard time seeing him being

anything more than that um he did play like 70 of the snaps in this one which is uh surprising and a change and you know obviously he had more targets four to two so if that continues i think there's a lot to like there but the way this running back situation has worked over the last few years is it's been very much close to 50-50 most weeks. This was the first time that Moss had played more than 56% of the snaps. They don't typically throw to their running backs very much. Their running backs don't typically get a lot of touchdowns. I know Moss does have four and four games but i just don't know how sustainable that is we saw he didn't get in the end zone yesterday i think josh allen did have a rushing touchdown in this one um and i just i think he's a low-end starting option you know with the bye weeks coming up and with how many injuries we have, I was meaning to look through it earlier. How many teams have a different starting running back for week six or project to have a different running back than they did in week one?

Oh, that's a fun exercise. It's the bills because Zach Moss wasn't healthy in week one or didn't play in week one. Sorry. The jets, the Ravens, the Patriots,

right? The pay because, because Harris is injured.s, the Patriots. Right. Because Harris is injured. Oh, Harris is hurt. Yeah. So that's three of four teams in the AFC East. Not the Bengals, not the Steelers, not the Titans, not the Colts, not the Texans, I guess. Baltimore.

Yeah, the Ravens. We'll see. We'll see what happens tonight. The Chiefs. The Giants. I'm up to seven. The Bears. The Vikings, maybe. Maybe.

The Buccaneers. Yeah. Maybe the Panthers. Probably not. Falcons. Not necessarily the Falcons,ers. Yeah. Maybe the Panthers, but probably not. Falcons? Not necessarily the Falcons, though kind of. They're on a bond anyway,

but yeah. Maybe the Cardinals. Yeah. With Edmund's injury, I don't, yeah. The Rams. Well, I guess not technically the Rams. No, not the Rams.

I wish it wasn't starting week one. Seahawks? I mean, you're looking at like 49ers and the Seahawks. Yeah. That's got to be close to half the league. No, not the Rams. Anderson wasn't starting in week one. Seahawks? I mean, you're looking at like 49ers and the Seahawks. Yeah. That's got to be close to half the league. Yeah. Wow.

Yeah. Yeah. All right. Let me get back to this game here so we can get to some more stuff here before Jacob hops on. All right. Stefan Diggs, number 27 wide receiver and non-PPR, number 24 in PPR so far, on pace for 1,200 receiving yards and three touchdowns. So I know we're not believing, you know,

the touchdown's obviously bad luck. He's still getting almost 10 targets per game. But yes, just, I don't know, not nearly as productive. So are you concerned about Diggs? And is Dawson Knox a must start now? Anyone who's getting targets at tight end can be a must start. And I think Dawson Knox is among the higher end of the group of, well, I guess he's a must start guy by default, but I wouldn't have him ranked over Dalton Schultz for sure.

Because basically what we're seeing with Knox is it's just touchdowns like yesterday he did have a big play and that's great two big plays yeah still only four targets and that is just led the team I think or I think there were four players who had four or five targets only 25 and Sanders both had five um not right so the targets were not high, but only 26 passes for Josh Allen. I did want to mention that. Yeah, I think Knox is probably going to be in the tight end

8-12 range most weeks, as long as he keeps this up, but it's really hard to keep scoring touchdowns at the pace he is. He's at, what, five in five games, five on 25, 24 targets. So let me ask you this.

Would you rather have Knox or Hawkinson rest of the season? Oh, Hawkinson, for sure. Would you rather have Knox or Pitts? Pitts, for sure. Would you rather have anyone other than the top six tight ends on draft day over Dawson Knox? You say Schultz. I would rather have Schultz, for sure.

Gosh, let me look at a list I mean there's like Hunter Henry Logan Thomas when he gets back let's Logan Thomas if he's healthy but that's yeah I think you're in that in that group I don't think there's like he's he's right at 8 to 12 I think but it's also possible that he goes three weeks without a touchdown has 35 yards per game and we're talking about dropping him by week eight you know i get yeah it is i mean it's just touchdowns right now he's averaging 52 yards per game but that's mostly because of last week he was averaging around 40 before that so i just if you have a pulse and you're getting targets, you can be a starting caliber tight end. And if you're in a good offense and you score a bunch of touchdowns,

you can be more than that. But the touchdowns part is the only real argument for Knox. And that's the hardest thing to sustainably produce. You might be surprised to know that Tyree Hill is the number two wide receiver in fantasy because he has had such an up and down year, but he has 516 yards. He has 10 targets per game, which is just like crazy for Tyreek Hill and four touchdowns. But it is a little frustrating, this bumpy road that he's on. I don't think anyone is starting him or sitting him rather or anything like that. And he's still, we still think he's awesome. Did you answer about digs? I mean, are you concerned at all about digs, at least living

up to the draft type? I mean, he is being used more as a downfield guy than he was last season. His average depth of target is right around 15. Last year was right around 10 to 11. So, you know, that could explain the lower target, the lower catch rate, and the slightly less predictable performance. But no, I'm not that concerned about him. He's still going to be a top five to seven wide receiver for me in week six. Okay.

That will conclude the game, I believe. Mahomes with his first game, I think, with fewer than three touchdown passes. Interceptions have become a problem. And last year, I think he led the NFL in interceptable passes that weren't caught. Oh, yeah? Yeah. Given the way he plays, that's not all that surprising.

He takes a lot more risks than most players. He throws downfield a lot more than most players. But I'm not worried about it being anything that dramatically impacts his value. He's a gunslinger. Okay, we've got a couple things to promote here. First of all, we do these podcasts.

You can see the video on YouTube, youtube.com slash fantasyfootballtoday, but now we're doing them live. All of them are going to be live. If not all, close to all. The Monday episode, this one here, 2-ish p.m. We might be a little late, by the way, but we'll be very close to on time. 2 p.m. Eastern.

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news and notes tom brady has the a thumb injury less than ideal that he has to play on thursday right now he is going to play uh this will have to be monitored and cared for i guess throughout the season but i don't think there's anything we're doing here about tom brady no it certainly does not seem to have affected him. Yeah, he played most of the game yesterday with his 400 yards and five touchdowns. Yeah. Juju Smith-Schuster is out for the season.

Now, we do have a question, a topic today about year two wide receivers that have been a little bit underwhelming on the whole, and Chase Claypool is one of them. This obviously helps Chase Claypool. Juju had eight or nine or seven or eight targets, I can't remember, in the three games that he didn't leave with an injury. So he was a pretty big part of the offense

from that perspective. And both times he left with an injury, Claypool just went off almost immediately after. So I'm looking forward to talking about that. But obviously this stinks. Is there another Pittsburgh receiver that you're, you know, James Washington or something? Or is this like just...

No, this is... This offense, I mean, I know they were decent yesterday. Ben Rothberger did average almost 10 yards per attempt, but it was basically two long plays and the rest of it looked more or less like the Steelers have for the last year plus. I think Chase Claypool will be in the wide receiver two to three discussion moving forward.

Interesting that he only played 55% of the snaps yesterday. I wonder how much of that was just because of the hamstring injury. What we've seen when either Deontay Johnson or Jujus Smith-Schuster has been out over the last two seasons is that's when he starts to play a full snap share. Otherwise, he's been more in the 70% range. So hopefully that was just because he was coming back from the hamstring injury yesterday.

And yesterday was kind of a weird game for the Steelers because their offense moved the ball and scored efficiently. And they ran the ball really well. I don't think you can count on that. Yeah. I don't think you can count on that moving forward. Samaje Pirine and starting guard for the Bengals are on the reserve COVID list.

Joe Burrow went to the hospital for a possible throat contusion, but he's fine, thankfully. Justin Fields played through a hyper extended knee. They don't think he's going to miss any time. They have the... Wow. The Bears, I think they're 3-2. They are... I'm not sure they're going to win five

games all season. Their schedule is brutal. Oh, yeah. Green Bay, Tampa Bay, San Francisco, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Detroit, Arizona, Green Bay, Minnesota, Seattle, Giants, Minnesota. They've got Detroit and the Giants on there, and those are the only games that I think they'd be favored in right now. Yeah, I think those are probably the only two they're favored in.

Maybe home versus Minnesota. Yeah, I think those are probably the only two they're favored in. Maybe home versus Minnesota. Yeah, maybe. You never know. I mean, injuries could happen to other teams and whatnot, but they've got a brutal stretch. Baltimore wide receiver Rashad Bateman will not play tonight.

He's looking to make his debut next week. Max Williams is out for the season for Arizona. Is he officially out for the season or likely out for the season? Likely out for the season. Okay. Quintez Cephas broke his collarbone.

So Amonra St. Brown, less competition for him and I guess for Hawkinson and waiver wire show. We'll talk about that. And we don't have. Are we going to talk about Hawkinson later on in the show? Not in this show. No. I just want to get one.

I just looked it up. He's basically the exact same guy he was last season like his target share is actually i think slightly down like 0.5 his yards per target are identical his touchdown rate is identical um it's weird like they are he's on pace for more targets more yards uh etc because they're throwing more, but this was my concern coming into the season that he just wasn't one, good enough to

just become a number one wide receiver or number one target in an offense and continue to thrive that way. And two, just players earn targets. It's not like at running back where opportunity drives so much of a player's value. When a player goes down or a depth chart gets lighter,

a player doesn't always or even typically just naturally see a growth in target share. Targets are earned by players. But he had a lot of targets last year. He had 100 targets. Right, but his target share was about 17%, and that's right around where it is right now. I think it was 17.2, it's 16.8 this year,

something like that. He himself said that teams are scheming to take him out of the game, and he's the number one priority. That's not a good thing for him. No, no, not at all. And then that was my concern coming into the season, that Darren Waller can be a number one wide receiver in an offense.

He's that talented. I just don't think TJ Hawkinson is that guy. All right, well, look, he's had two great games and three kind of stinkers. If he has a great game against the Bengals, and he probably won't, then we'll be having a different discussion. He's a must-start guy. Let's get going here because we are running behind. Giants injuries, we don't know, basically.

We don't know on any of them. I think Shepard and Slayton have a pretty good chance to play this week since they didn't go on IR and this would be week three. They are playing the Rams. Levante David could miss some time. Tampa Bay's linebacker.

Miami's hopeful for Tua this week. Houston doesn't seem quite as hopeful for Tyra Taylor this week. Ryan Fitzpatrick could be back in week seven. And Jarvis Landry could play this week. Let's take a quick break. When we come back, we'll get to our five big topics with Jacob Gibbs.

We'll talk about streaming players against good matchups. We'll talk about the Seahawks wide receivers and the Giants injury situation right now because you've got two players who are going to be among the most added and then Shepard too is like 65% rostered or something so we'll be right back to talk about our five big topics going into week six welcome back here he is ladies and gentlemen fresh off Sunday night football in Arrowhead Jacob Gibbs how is uh How was your experience?

Hey, you're standing up. Hey. That's the big thing, yeah. Standing up for the first time, not in bed. I thought maybe you had one of those wheelie beds that they took you to the stadium in. You were just laying down, watching the game, field level. No.

I know it was a disappointing result, but how was the game? It was all right. It was kind of hard at the back. I couldn't really sit down very much. I had to move around a lot. But that was fine because I was doing a lot of angry brooding and just striding around the stadium as I watched the Chiefs just get embarrassed again. Yeah.

I got some problems. We actually left early because of the weather delay. We didn't know if they were going to play it out or not. I had to work today, and my other friends had to work as well. So luckily we didn't stick around for're going to play it out or not and like i had to work today and my other friends had to work as well so luckily we didn't stick around for the uh the second half because it got even worse yeah i'm trying to identify how many i'm trying to see how many of the albums behind you i can identify hmm the stuff that just from this view with very with the very small ones i'm just trying to test myself now yeah i've been impressed there's some pretty obscure stuff on there i have got let's let's see, one, two, three.

I've got zero. I've got zero of them. I cannot identify any. Abbey Road, Rumors. Yeah, there's some more mainstream stuff on there. Jimi Hendrix Experience. Of course. Van Halen.

Like three of them. It's a cool wall. Four of them there. All right, big topic number one. Yeah, let's talk some football. From John J. Douglas. Streaming players against the NFL's worst teams versus starting your studs in not-so-friendly matchups.

What are your thoughts on this, Jacob? I think it's, for me, it's circumstantial. I kind of prefer to take case by case. I don't, I guess, firmly believe in, like, one philosophy over the other. I think generally I give more consideration to projectable volume than matchup factors. So I guess that does put me on the side of like starting your studs, generally speaking. But I think we're talking about a stud who is underperforming and has like does have troubling usage indicators like Allen Robinson or maybe Jonathan Taylor or someone like that.

I have no problem benching them when they're in a tough matchup. So yeah, I think more than anything, I don't think you should restrict yourself to one philosophy here. I think you take it case by case. Yep, 100%. I view it much the same way. My rankings process starts out with trying to project team predict or project team usage team production and then going down from there and you know i'll definitely make adjustments for matchups but i tend to think like it's like a 15 15 kind of thing where it's like maybe the bottom three and the top three teams in terms of matchups are the ones that really matter you know you could say

top five but generally speaking like it's like a bell curve in terms of like the the performance of defenses and where they matter most teams fall within a very wide range or a pretty narrow range in terms of the impact they have on the opposing defenses and you know obviously then it depends on what kind of stats you're talking about when you're looking at matchups. Like, I personally don't really care about, like, versus tight ends fantasy points allowed. That's one of the stats that I just like. There is so much noise in there

that is so dependent on who defenses have played. A team that faces Travis Kelsey and Darren Waller is probably going to have bad numbers against tight ends but that doesn't necessarily mean they can't cover tight ends so there's a lot that goes into it I agree with Jacob it's not any one thing at all times but generally speaking I do tend to start my studs when they are studs. Allen Robinson not being one. Right. And as far as, you know, fantasy points against tight ends,

you have to look at the matchup, look at the opponents, right? It's not just... Some teams are really bad against tight ends and haven't faced good tight ends. So you can, I think, pick those out. But obviously, like, the Ravens have faced some of the best tight ends in football. They faced Kelsey, they faced Waller, they faced Hawkinson.

Oh, who else? The thing with, like, tight ends in football. They faced Kelsey. They faced Waller. They faced Hawkinson. Who else? The thing with tight ends is there's like one or two every year. Or there are different defenses that play a certain way. Well, hold on, Chris. I don't want to get the same thing happen last week. So I'll just move on. Well said, guys. And I will say that this year, to me,

is the least match-up-y year that I can remember. I don't think that there are many defenses that I fear this year. I think the Bills are the one right now. And when you look at what they have done against the Steelers wide receivers, against Terry McLaurin, against Tyreek Hill, this is when, you know, stud receiver against the Bills, I'm not saying you sit them, but you downgrade them a little bit.

This is like the one, but I don't see a lot of cornerbacks that are shadowing anymore. Jalen Ramsey isn't shadowing anymore. So, I mean, it's a huge deal. And I am finding myself less focused on the matchups than ever, except with one, with Bills against receivers

and with any running back facing the Bucs. Okay. And then there's like, oh, Trayvon Diggs is this shutdown corner. Now, well, he has a lot of interceptions, but like... Oh, he's still doing a pretty good job, though. The only guy he can't stop is Kadarius Toney. Well, DJ Moore.

But he didn't shadow DJ Moore. He shadowed Mike Evans. That effect doesn't really, unless the play is shadowing. Yes, you have to understand. It doesn't matter. You have to look at where these guys line up.

Mike Evans is on that side of the field so often. But yeah, I mean, there's a lot that goes into it. But you're just not seeing that many cornerbacks sticking on a receiver this year. All right.

What do we think about the Seattle wide receivers? This is from Drew and everyone else. What do you think about the Seattle-wide receivers with Russell Wilson out the next month, Jacob? It definitely adds more volatility to the equation for both these guys. But overall, I'm not too worried about either. But yeah, I mean, just like so Metcalf had really been putting together

kind of a dominant stretch um where he was you know really commanding 25 to 30 percent target share consistently and like that type of trend might just go out the window now that there is a quarterback change stuff like that is possible um but i still i still think he's a top five top six wide receiver lockett i you still think metcalf's top five or six without russell wilson i think so. I trust the underlying data more than I maybe should. But most of the time, if there's a receiver who's good enough to demand that type of target share, they're going to.

It doesn't really matter who the quarterback is. And I understand there are going to be more down weeks for sure. I love you, Jacob, but boy, do I disagree with you. I think that's fair. Yeah, I think that's fair. Well, they have got to solve their biggest problem. They've run the fewest plays in the NFL and he's just not getting all that many targets and he's got the second most touchdowns in the NFL Metcalf, but he's not top

10 in yards. He's not top 10 in catches. So I think if the touch and we know Wilson just is such a touchdown machine, right? If the touchdowns aren't there, then I'm just worried about both of them. I think it's going to be more like Amari Cooper without Dak than Michael Thomas without Brees. I just think he's so much better than Amari Cooper. I think he's one of the best receivers in the NFL. I do too. We've seen that ascent from the time he's come in.

He's just gotten better and better and better in all of his rate stats. And I think there are some guys who are good enough to transcend the situation. I think he might be that good. I don't know. I will say not having Russell Wilson probably helps their volume problem because part of their volume problem is they hit on so many big plays that their drives don't necessarily last all that long. But it's not like they have a problem scoring the ball.

This isn't last year's Houston Texans who had a really low play volume, but it was because their offense stunk. This is because they're ending a lot of plays after three drives with Russell Wilson hitting someone for a 50-yard touchdown. So what do you think, Chris? Metcalf and Lockett?

I think you have to downgrade them. I don't think DK Metcalf is going to be 10 yards per target with Geno Smith. However, if he keeps getting around 8 targets per game and he's at 8 yards per target or 8.5, he's going to be pretty good in that regard either way. You're probably still looking at 70 yards per game. So I'm not downgrading him too much. He's probably more like a low-end wide receiver one

and Lockett more like a sort of unpredictable wide receiver two, but I think I'm probably still going to be starting them. Gino Smith isn't the worst quarterback in the NFL. I don't know how good he is. He really hasn't played much in a while, and he's played on some bad teams. He didn't play with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. So would you

trade either of them for Debo Samuel? I would trade Lockett for Samuel. I think so, although I have somewhat similar concerns if Trey Lance remains the quarterback for the 49ers which i don't necessarily think will happen um yeah so yeah okay let's go to our next one from

dj casso new york giants stay away question mark question mark i mean yeah in general like you're definitely gonna be better off adhering to that philosophy. I think my experiences with Giants being on my team almost never seem to be good ones. Well, I really think that they have made some serious progress for the first time in a long time, if Daniel Jones is healthy. I do think they'll be able to throw the ball fairly well. They've had a 94-yard receiver or more in four or five games.

I mean, they're producing. They're just not, you know. They have been pretty solid. Let me say, they're 22nd in scoring, but they're 9th in yards per play. They just stink in the red zone, 30th in touchdown percentage in the red zone. But they're 12th in pass attempts, and they probably will still be 12th after Monday Night Football. So if Jones is healthy, then yeah.

I mean, I have some interest in the receivers, but I do think this is so tough because you've seen Shepard be awesome. You saw Galladay awesome in Week 4 without Shepard and Slayton. You saw Tony awesome, good in Week 4 and incredible. I believe he set a rookie record yesterday, most receiving yards in a game. I don't know if that was a Giants record or a rookie record.

I don't think it was an all-time rookie record. Then it was a Giants record. Almost certainly a rookie record for players who were ejected from the game for throwing a punch. And reportedly not expected to be suspended. He seems to have a little bit of an emotions problem.

Who doesn't? But look at how well these receivers are doing. It's really... I can't just turn my back on them. Giants fan and all, they're starting to show some progress here if they have Daniel Jones. I think Kadarius Toney is an absolute

must-add without question. And Booker is too because he's now a starting running back for some time. I think eventually that receiving group is going to be too crowded for there to be multiple standouts. But those guys have to get healthy. And right now, we don't know if Kenny Galladay is going to play in Week 6. We don't know if Sterling Shepard is going to play in Week 6.

So I think definitely Kadarius Toney's a must-add this week. I was shocked he was only 19% rostered. I figured that would have gone up a little more after week four. It wasn't my fault. Because he had good usage in week four, too. I tried. Yeah, that was one of those leagues. I added him in a few leagues as a beat-the-waver-wire guy

on Friday and Saturday night. If you could have one Gi giants receiver rest of season who would it be i was really high in shepherd coming into the year i think it might be tony that i i actually am really excited about what we saw last week i don't know if you saw i tweeted this right before the show started but he was started on 54 of his routes run in week five because he did get ejected he only ended up i think running 24 routes and so like over the past 10 years he's one of just six receivers in the past 10 years to run 20 plus routes and be targeted on over half their routes the other ones are davante adams julio jones prime

demarius thomas uh early career mike evans and early career jarvis landry when they're just like target hogs and it's just like that's crazy like I I he looked really good did you guys have you guys watched like all his targets oh yeah and that one play down the sideline was like I did not think that was the kind of play he could make even the play he got ejected on yeah yeah no I you know what I agree like I know he can make plays with the ball after the catch but can he be a downfield receiver that that question needs to be answered so that was you're right because that play was the most eye-op, but can he be a downfield receiver? That question needs to be answered. You're right, because that play was the most eye-opening. The one he got ejected on...

I thought he was going to be a gadgety guy. He gained three extra yards on that play. He had well over 100 air yards. I think his 8-out was almost 10 yards. No, it was an impressive performance, for sure. I was poo-pooing him on the start-sit show on Sunday morning, and he definitely made me look pretty dumb.

All right, let's go to Joe Moreno. This is a good question here. How about the year two wide receivers? They're usually prime candidates for breakouts, but other than Jefferson and a half a game for Judy, it doesn't seem to be happening through five weeks. What's the rest of season outlook on the year two receivers? We don't even have to talk about Jefferson.

He's actually on pace for more more catches yards and touchdowns than he was than he had last year um but lamb might be yeah we might be pretty close to just talking about justin jefferson is the best wide receiver in the nfl yeah yeah he's so good he's great probably needs to make a few more high-profile spotlight plays for people to think that. Needs to make a one-handed catch on a Monday Night Football or something. He does. It's hard when you see Tyreek Hill all the time doing amazing things or Devontae Adams, but Jefferson's sort of in the background.

All right, but Lamb is outside the top 20. Higgins has 150 yards in three games. That's like 50 a game. Brandon Ayuk's been awful. Claypool I am excited about now. Chenault has had one good game. That was real disappointing

yesterday. Yeah, it really was. Chris, what do you think? Who's the next after Jefferson? Who's the next best year two receiver? It's Lamb, I think. A big part of it is the Cowboys volume just hasn't been what we thought it would be. And I don't quite know what to make of that.

Even yesterday, I think they only threw the ball at 33 times, something like that. And so that's actually, I think, Dak Prescott's second highest pass volume of the year by far uh and this was a team that we thought was going to throw the ball that we thought was going to average 40 pass attempts per game so it's been really hard to make sense of that but he's actually you know cd lamb's been great on a per target basis 9.2 yards per target he's doing it with you know very similar a dot to last year but he's getting more volume so

I I view him still as a probably more like a number two wide receiver but that's what he was coming into the season for me he was right around 14 so I'm not super disappointed obviously you know after the first couple of games we thought okay maybe both Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb could be top 12 guys I think they're both still top 20 guys, and I think Lamb is definitely the best of the second-year guys. I think Higgins is probably third for me. I think I might go Claypool over Higgins right now. And honestly, it wouldn't shock me if Jerry Judy,

even missing week six, maybe week seven, it wouldn't shock me if he ends up being the second best. But Jacob, what about you? Who do you think is the second best behind jefferson um i guess i would say lamb as well i i don't love what we've seen from dallas i think that either higgins or claypool or i guess judy could vault to that number two spot um really i think we haven't seen enough yet, like enough discouraging data points from any of these guys yet to really preclude any of them from a second-half breakout. Ayuk. Yes.

Yeah, actually, I forget about Ayuk. He's the one, yeah. I forget about Ayuk, which is so sad. So did Kyle Shanahan. Yeah. But yeah, Claypool Higgins, Lamb, Darnold Mooney, Shanal, I think you've seen. Mooney, I forgot about him, yeah. Yeah, and he, Higgins, Lamb, Darnold Mooney, Shanal, I think you've seen. I forgot about him, yeah.

Yeah, and he's really had an exciting, more than any of those names in terms of the step from year one to year two, his data is really, really exciting. But yeah, each of the other guys have actually upped their target per route run rate from year one to year two. It's come in a small sample size for Higgins, but Higgins' underlying usage in the first two games

was really, really good. And I think it's possible a small sample size for higgins but like his higgins underlying usage in the first two games was really really good um and i think it's possible that the injury maybe kind of derailed him cost him enough momentum that now you know he is going to be prioritized behind behind jamar chase that's what we saw last week um chase finally had like the underlying you know volume numbers that backed up the production and maybe it'll be like that going forward but i think it's also possible that you know higgins starts to be targeted like the wide receiver one again. He only played about two-thirds of the snaps this week. So I think it's possible he's kind of eased in this week. And it just wouldn't surprise me if he gets back to being targeted

like the wide receiver one going forward. He's got a 26% target share on the season. Right. Which is actually technically tops on the team. Weirdly, Boyd and Chase are at 25%. You usually don't see that, but obviously Higgins missing two games plays a part in that. But yeah, no, I think Higgins could absolutely still be

the wide receiver 1A or 1B in this offense. Yeah, this is really... In terms of targets, at least. This is what I was saying a lot in the preseason, is I'm obsessed with year two receivers, but I hated their situations. Almost all of them had bad situations. And it's sort of playing out that way.

It's kind of weird in Dallas, because the situation I thought was that they had three top wide receivers to split the targets. Gallup, not top, but you know what I mean? And it's not that. Gallup is hurt, but it's that they're the most run-heavy, and they're one of the most run-heavy teams, and they don't throw.

And then you're getting Gallup back pretty soon, too. So that's an issue. Higgins, how about this? I hope these stats are updated. Sometimes it takes a day for pro football reference to update. But what I'm seeing right now, Joe Burrow has 10 pass attempts in the red zone.

10. Tom Brady has 39. Mahomes has 28, and he's like sixth. You know, Matt Ryan is 38 for Josh Allen. Dak Prescott has 25. Joe Burrow has 10.

Tee Higgins, despite missing two games, leads the team. According to Pro Football Reference,ins, despite missing two games, leads the team, according to Pro Football Reference. Again, these might be outdated, but I believe these stats because everything from Chase has been deep. Leads the team in red zone

and green zone targets, barely. But that might be his role. It might be what saves him. Yeah, Higgins has been targeted on 45% of his routes in the red zone. Oh, wow. He's been clearly the guy for Burrow. And it's a small sample size, only three

games. We're still optimistic about these guys. Does anybody share my optimism for Chase Claypool? He's had four games this year. He's had 70 or more yards in three of them, and the one that he didn't was against Buffalo in week one, and we know how good they are. I'm super

optimistic about Claypool as a player. I was really excited by what we saw last year on the field and his underlying data and like it's been good this year as well it's just such a fragile offensive environment so like for this year i really don't have much confidence just because i have no idea what it's going to look like in a month in pittsburgh i do think for him you know when juju and deontay Johnson have been healthy, he's been a clear third in routes, runs, snaps, all that stuff. Even though Juju and Deontay play a lot in the slot, when there's two wide receivers on the field, when there's two wide receivers on the field,

it tended to not be Chase Claypool. Now that'll change. He will be in the two wide receiver sets, and that's going to help him. I don't believe in Ben roethlisberger whatsoever but i think there is room in this offense for three viable fantasy options as bad as his arm is he is willing to throw the ball downfield to chase claypool and i think that'll help and i think i'm not expecting him to break out and be like a superstar but i I think Chase Claypool will probably be in the top 24-ish range, like 24 to 30 most weeks in the rankings for me.

Okay. All right, well, that's good. I mean, that's somebody that we could use right now. By the way, Damian Harris, just saw the news here on Damian Harris. Day-to-day, checked out okay after a rough game against Houston. Final one here, guys.

I'm going to give you just a few minutes for this. I won't even talk, so it's all you. From King Hassan, which draft strategy would have panned out the best as of now? Weight on quarterback, Hero RB, top three tight end in the first two rounds, et cetera. Jacob, first word, which draft strategy would have panned out the best so far?

I think Hero RB you know been especially if you like i don't know if you guys have you seen gretch's team on uh unbelievable yeah it's the power scoring team and scott fishbowl right yeah it was coming into this week um so like if especially if you were able to you know hit on the right receivers in those mid rounds and he really nailed him um i think that's probably been the optimal strategy i think the top three tight ends is you know unless you thought kittle was one um but if you got waller or kelsey then you're probably you know pretty happy with those picks but um yeah probably here i'll be my answer i don't know how people feel about darren waller right now a little salty

with darren waller yeah uh darren waller had a better game in week five. Had some drops. There was one should have been touchdown that Carr barely overthrew. Carr's still throwing the ball down the field. His average depth of target has still been above eight or intended air yards per target has still been above 8.5 every week so far this season, I believe. I don't

really have any concerns about Waller. There's week-to-week fluctuation. When it happens happens during the course of a four- or five-game stretch, it's frustrating. It evens out over the course of the season. I'm not worried about Darren Waller. So, Chris, what draft strategy do you think has worked best? I think it's been here or RB, and I think, generally speaking, the historical draft data suggests

that is the optimal draft strategy at this point. Um, and I think prioritizing PPR type running backs has really worked out so far this season. I mean, you see Austin Eckler, a guy who,

you know, supposedly couldn't score touchdowns has seven, five games, which is pretty incredible. Um, but even like chase Edmonds before last week was doing really, really well. So DeAndre Swift as well.

I think those three are kind of varying versions of Spider-Man pointing at each other right now. So I think here are being, especially in your PPR leagues, focusing on pass catching running backs has really, really worked out well. And avoiding the running back dead zone i mean this has been one of the best years uh that i can think of in terms of evidence against the running back dead zone being worth targeting because mike davis has been a little

disappointing miles gaskin has been a total bust before last week a bunch of other guys in that range have you know really struggled to get going so i think you know maybe it's confirmation bias this is the the type of draft strategy i go with every year anyway but like the miles sanders james robinson giovante williams that tier of running backs has been really disappointing james robinson is that you were meant to say uh no giovante williams was being drafted in that range oh you did say james robinson though oh not james robinson i was i meant to say someone else then i don't know who it was yeah i mean chase edmonds and deandre swift technically were in that range yeah and kareem

hunt was too like there are there are examples but for the most part there have been i think it's been the right strategy this year and i think it will continue to be yeah i think uh i think there are a lot of different strategies, as is every year. A lot of different strategies can work. The best strategy is pick the best players. What really shocks me, I think, is how disappointing

Stefan Diggs, Calvin Ridley, and DeAndre Hopkins have been. I thought those would be incredibly safe picks and a great way to start your team would have been Hero RB with one of those guys. And I wonder how the teams who took those players are doing so far. A.J. Brown.

The round two receivers have been kind of grummy. That's a little harsh. The high-end quarterbacks, I mean, some of them have been unbelievable. Like if you've got Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Justin Herbert, even Jalen Hurts, you're doing incredibly well. But among the top like 10 or 12 quarterbacks

who are being drafted in the top 100 on average, it's been a little hit or miss. I mean, Lamar Jackson will be fine, but... Jackson's the only one who's been... Aaron Rodgers was still a top quarterback. Yeah, but at the top, like seven or eight have all been pretty good. Yeah.

Yeah, I guess Ross's injury changed that a little bit. Right. Yeah. Okay. All right. That's it for us. Thanks so much for listening, everybody, to this Monday afternoon episode. Remember, we are live every morning now, 8.30 a.m. Eastern.

We also have a waiver wire show just on YouTube, not a podcast. YouTube.com slash Fantasy Football Today at 8 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday. Okay, that's great. Jacob, go lay down. I think you've been up for a little bit too long. And have a great day, everybody. We'll talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football Today.