Fantasy Football Today - Five Big Topics and the Chiefs Offense Stinks! (12/06 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: December 6, 2021

We start with a recap of Broncos-Chiefs! Javonte Williams was awesome, but nobody else was! How much faith do we have in the Chiefs offense going forward? Could we really consider benching Patrick Mahomes? ... News and notes (14:30) with updates on Logan Thomas and more. And then we start our Five Big Topics with RB discussions. As the starters get healthy, what will the backfield splits look like for the Vikings (18:30), Cardinals and Broncos (20:15), Saints (29:50) and Packers (34:10)? ... Is Elijah Moore an obvious start going forward (36:30)? You may not realize just how good he has been. And we finish by giving you some playoff DSTs to stash (42:00) and by answering a Fantasy ethics question (46:40). Can you tank in Week 14 to keep a team out of the playoffs? ... Email us at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. Tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races.

Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Beck. The Chiefs' offense stinks, and Javante Williams is I think going to be a first round pick next year, Chris,

in fantasy drafts. What do you think? That was certainly an impressive performance for him. I mean, obviously it depends on what the Broncos' situation looks like. But yes, if he's the clear-cut lead back, he's probably going to be in that first-round discussion. Yeah, he's going to be right there at the end.

And I'm looking forward to it. Would you take him over Justin Jefferson? Probably. I think he's kind of a can't miss, but so is Jefferson. I'm very excited about Javante Williams. You know what? Let me tell you.

We have a question. One of our big topics today is about backfield splits when the starter gets healthy or the 1A, 1B gets healthy. And one of them is the Broncos. Melvin Gordon is having a nice year. You look at the numbers, 4.5 yards per carry.

That's always good. Javante's at 4.8, but Melvin Gordon is getting 1.53 yards before contact. 16th best among running backs. 16th most amongst running backs. Javante Williams is at 0.83 yards before contact compared to 1.53 for Gordon. Javante is 43rd.

Yards after contact, this is an actually interesting list. Yards after contact per carry. Number one is Nick Chubb. Number two is Jonathan Taylor. Number three is James Robinson. And then you basically have a three-way tie for fourth place at Cordaro Patterson, Khalil Herbert, and Javante Williams.

That's your top six in yards after contact per carry. So it's Chubb by a lot. Then Taylor. James Robinson being third is very impressive. Patterson, Khalil Herbert, Javante Williams, very bunched together. So it's frustrating, Chris, because we all want to see Javante Williams get unleashed this could be this could be the number

I'm not going to call him number one because Taylor's got that this could be the number two running back if he were just the guy you're talking about like Cam Akers, Jonathan Taylor, J.K. Dobbins from last year that's the hope with more catches than all of them potentially

yes from last year that that's that's the hope yep with more catches than all of them potentially yes yes um no it was it was an incredibly impressive performance um that's about all you can take away from last night's game as far as things to be optimistic about on either side but you know it was good look at the whole like yards before carry yards after carry broken tack, broken tackles per rush. I don't know how much that stuff actually matters or how much that stuff actually illuminates because I don't know. Like Javante Williams reminds me a lot of David Montgomery, actually,

in terms of playing style, physicality, very similar workout numbers at the combine and very similar, like really, combine. And very similar, like really, really good at breaking tackles. I think Javante Williams probably has a similar thing. David, David Montgomery in that you're probably not going to see like a 70 yard run

from either of them. They just, I don't know if they have that like top end breakaway speed, but they're, you know, obviously Javante Williams has been fully capable of breaking off medium-long big plays. So I think he's going to be good

as long as he gets the opportunity, yeah. Yeah, and we'll talk about that a little bit later. The Chiefs are more interesting. We want to wrap up on the Broncos here, and let me give a little teaser of what's coming up on the show. We'll take a look at the latest injury news and some waiver wire reaction. With that, we're going to talk about

what the Cardinals' backfield will look like if Chase Edmonds is back next week. The Packers' backfield. We did that last week, but we'll give it another go. The Vikings' backfield, if and when Dalvin Cook gets healthy. You've got a guy who's had 120 or more total yards in all three

games that he's replaced him in Alexander Madison and 20 or more carries. I think 22 or more carries in every game. Um, the what's the other backfield, the Broncos and the saints. What would that look like when Alvin Camara does return to action? We're going to talk about Elijah Morris. He still is he a must start going forward in every week.

I didn't want to include this one, but I got enough people asking about it. And I do see this question, common, a common question, a playoff DSTs to stash. So we'll give you some of those. Want to include this one, but I got enough people asking about it, and I do see this question, a common question. Playoff DSTs to stash. So we'll give you some of those,

and then we'll talk a little fantasy football ethics as well at the end of the show. But we'll start with Kansas City 22 and Denver 9. There was about a 20-mile-per-hour wind in this game, and perhaps that prevented these quarterbacks from throwing the ball downfield, but it was a very conservative game plan for both teams. Since we started on the Broncos, let's just wrap it up. Cortland Sutton at this point, he's over 80% rostered.

Can we just get rid of him? I think so. This was actually sort of promising in that he had six targets, which is as much as he had in the previous two combined but that was still on what 41 pass attempts 40 pass attempts but had a Bridgewater you're still talking about a a pretty minimal target share like 15 percent given the fact that Bridgewater has not been super effective throwing the ball down the field yeah I think Cortland Sutton is droppable. I wish he wasn't. I do think he's very good, but yeah,

it's concerning when you think about next season if the Broncos can't get a clear upgrade at quarterback because it kind of seems like they might just have too many guys and not a good enough offense to take advantage of it. Yeah, I'm trying to do the math now. I did not do this earlier. There's only one catch for Jerry Judy on the final drive. One catch

for 19 yards. So it ended up being a pretty decent game for Jerry Judy. You're not dropping him. He'll be an interesting start decision on a week. Yeah, I think he's in the receiver three discussion. Obviously Noah Fant is extremely frustrating and you can't trust him. You can't trust the passing game. That's the bottom line. So let's do the

fans is I think he was outside my top 12 in week 13. He probably will be moving forward. So who are the must-start Chiefs? Patrick Mahomes. Is he? Harry Kill. Travis Kelsey. Is he?

Yeah. Kelsey's a no-brainer. Who are you going to start instead of Patrick Mahomes? We talked about this on the FFT video show earlier today with Lamar Jackson. One of Heath's believe it or not was you should sit Lamar Jackson and Lamar Jackson's no but like which quarterbacks would you actually start over Patrick Mahomes who you might reasonably have on your roster like okay if you have Tom Brady on your roster you can sit Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. If you have Kyler Murray, go ahead and sit Patrick Mahomes. Josh Allen keep in mind, Mahomes is facing the Raiders this upcoming week.

And the last time he faced the Raiders was just a few weeks ago, and he threw for 406 yards and five touchdowns. He scored 46 fantasy points in that game. I haven't done the math, but he's probably, in the other five games, they've been slumping for six games offensively.

He's probably close to 46 fantasy points in the other five games combined it's yeah he's at 6.4 yards per attempt combined over his last six games which is really really bad now obviously that is in keeping with the larger trends that we've talked about a little bit over the last couple of weeks league wide pass yards per pass attempt is 6.8 or no 6.9 coming into week 13 and it was 6.8 in week 13 that's really bad um but that also plays into the like maybe who does kirk cousins get this he's got the steelers thursday he might not have adam thielen i don't know he was gonna be one of the names he and tasem hill were gonna be two i think that are pretty interesting tasem hill's got a got a got

a mallet finger and plantar fasciitis. I don't know. And he was dreadful last week. But he rushed for 100 yards and he's facing the Jets. Yeah, it was a good fantasy game, but that's a question. Can you be that bad

and be good for fantasy? If he rushes for 100 yards per game, yeah. If it's 50? Taylor Heineke has Dallas this week. He's probably one of the better streaming quarterbacks most weeks, but I don't think I would want to start Taylor Heineke over Patrick Mahomes. I don't think I would start Joe Burrow over him. Joe Burrow hasn't been any good lately either.

So Mahomes, 46 points at Las Vegas, and in those other five games in this six-game stretch, about 56 points. Yeah. No, he's been bad. But Derek Carr's been bad. Would you start Derek Carr? No, absolutely not.

Would you start Jimmy Garoppolo? Burrow's got this dislocated pinky, too. No, I wouldn't start Garoppolo. No, I mean, I think Mahomes is going to be a top five quarterback. Yeah. In the rankings. He was on a bye. Jalen Hurts slash Gardner Minshew are on a bye.

Yeah. Yeah. No, it's just not good. Like, that's... Do you think he'll snap out of it, though? What's that? Do you think he'll snap out of it? I have to believe that.

It's a different offense. What other choice do I have? Well, it's a different offense now. We have three years of a historically good offense and six weeks of a really bad one. Yeah, it's just things have changed. He has as many good games as bad games this season. I think he'll snap out of it too,

but it's not based on anything we've seen. No, I can't tell you he's going to tomorrow or in six days. There have been a lot of drops, though. The receivers are not helping him. But it's really just a matter of... It's simple. We say it every week.

They don't throw the ball downfield as much. Tyreek Hill has a 20-yard catch. He's not even asking that much for a wide receiver. He does not have a 20-yard catch in six of his last eight games. Only two of his last eight games where he has a 20-yard catch. They're just running RPOs and little slants and dinking and dunking their way down the field. And you know what? They're winning. They won five games in a row behind their defense. So how about the running game? How about Clyde? How much faith do you have in him?

It seems like you just look at his game logs. 15, 16 touches. That might be what we're expecting at this point yeah i think he's a low-end rb2 he's splitting work he got about half the snaps yesterday 51 i think daryl williams was like 47 or something i think that's going to be the case moving forward and you're kind of just hoping for either a big play, which he doesn't really do all that much of, or a touchdown. I think he can be 70 yards on the ground, maybe 25 yards in the air. And if he does that, that's going to be a pretty good game. If he scores a touchdown, it's going to be a really good game.

But I think he's in the Miles Gaskin, Miles Sanders, if he's healthy, although both those guys are on by this week. He's below Josh Jacobs at this point. Any other Miles? Yeah, he's below Jacobs. Jacobs is so involved in the passing game. And Kenyon Drake out for the season. That'll only help.

I think he's probably still below James Robinson, although Robinson's been at 52% of the snaps or lower in two straight games. How about Barkley? Oh, Saquon Barkley. I think I would rather have Saquon, but mostly just because of the passing game involvement. He has 22 targets.

No, 20 targets over the last three games. So as long as that's happening, he's going to average more than three yards per catch at some point, right? Yeah, I think so. I would expect that. All right, so look, it's frustrating for the Chiefs, but very difficult to get away from a Holmes or Tyreek Hill

and nobody's ever going to sit Kelsey. That'd be ludicrous. Yeah, he's still the number one tight end, right? I think so. He's been pretty good, you know, for the most part. Even in this bad stretch, he is... He and Tyreek Hill have three big ones. He's still the number one by more than a point per game in PPR.

Oh, no. George Kittle's within a point now. Ah. Okay. George Kittle had the 16th best fantasy game by a tight end since 1970 yesterday. That guy was incredible. Man, what a performance. One of the few tight ends ever to have 35 plus points

in multiple games in their career. Travis Kelsey has never done that. Who's the other? It's Kellen Winslow, the first, and Shannon Sharp. They're the only two to have multiple games with 35 plus PPR points. And these are the kind of things

that you, well, you probably won't see. You might see these nuggets in the newsletter. What's in the newsletter this week, Chris? Oh, same thing as every week. You'll get rankings tomorrow,

waiver wire. You'll get some, probably not some trade stuff, but maybe some, last week I wrote about the toughest players to rank. I thought that was a pretty interesting exercise to go through. You'll get start-sit calls.

You'll get game previews. You'll get everything you need. News, injuries. Yeah. And we've got six... And you won't get injuries. Six... Unless you click wrong.

Or if you're holding your phone weird, maybe. You drop it on your foot. Yeah. It is a pretty long read. we got six different newsletters if you go to cbssports.com slash newsletters we have the hq pick six fantasy football today fantasy baseball today sports line and first cut newsletters go to cbssports.com slash newsletters get them straight to your inbox news and notes and we'll talk about waiver wire in the process here. So Thielen's got

a high ankle sprain. We'd be shocked if he played on Thursday. I'll editorialize there. You can disagree if you'd like. No, I'm not expecting him to play at all. You got Joe Burrow

with a dislocated pinky. He expects to play against the Niners. Andy Dalton with a hand injury, and we'll see if Justin Fields can get back out there. It's a pain tolerance issue for Fields at this point. They are at Green Bay.

You got two injuries to key defensive players for the Chargers. Seems like Joey Bosa is okay. He did not go back in the game, maybe because of the score, but they were blowing out the Bengals. But I guess at this point, I'm expecting him. He did not have a concussion to play against the Giants. But Justin Jones, their run defense has been so much better when Justin Jones' defensive tackle has been in the lineup.

He left in the third quarter. So we will see if he is out next week. And that is potentially a boost for Saquon Barkley, who faces the Chargers. Logan Thomas, is it officially? Actually, we just got news. He did not tear his ACL. Oh, okay. who faces the Chargers. Logan Thomas, is it officially? Yes. We just got news. He did not tear his ACL.

Oh, okay. Ian Rappaport literally seconds ago just tweeted, MRI came back better than expected. They do not indicate he tore his ACL. There is damage, but perhaps he'll play again this season. All right, it's Logan Thomas we're talking about here. So big news for the guy

with the best matchups on the board. Yeah, a tight end. Would still be surprised if he was back anytime soon. But if he is, yeah, he's got the Eagles and Cowboys in his next four games. Kenny Galladay left in the second quarter. We don't know yet on him. He's got the ribs. We don't know who the Giants quarterback will be with Mike Lennon with the concussion.

Kareem Hunt is going to play this week against Baltimore. Terod Taylor getting an MRI on his wrist. We'll see how the Eagles look after their bye. Miles Sanders left with the ankle injury. Jason Kelsey, their center left. Chris already mentioned Kenyon Drake out for the season with a broken

ankle. Some defensive injuries I'll be looking at. Jamal Adams for the Seahawks. Emmanuel Mosley for the 49ers. They're at Cincinnati. Chidobe Awuzie for the Bengals. That's a pretty big one. And they have San Francisco this week.

He's a starting cornerback for them. They also lost linebacker Logan Woodside. So it was a great, it was a terrible game for the Bengals and they lost two defensive starters to injury. Don't know how long. And Tampa Bay cornerback Jamel Dean left with a concussion. Man, they dropped like flies in that secondary. And Baltimore, too.

The Raiders. Denzel Perryman is, I think, the second leading tackler in the NFL. He left late in the game. He already had, I think, 11 tackles or something. He's been a machine. IDP star Denzel Perryman. He left late in the game. He already had, I think, 11 tackles or something. He's been a machine. IDP star Denzel Perryman, he left with an injury. Baltimore cornerback Marlon Humphrey is likely out for the season.

Also, Baltimore lost its right tackle. He's missed a lot of the year, but he left with a hand injury. Patrick McCurry, their offensive line is really struggling. And we can stop there. Those are some of the things we'll be looking at that are not skill position players. Julio Jones has been designated to return from IR.

And one other thing, Chris. One other thing. Yes. The Panthers fired coordinator Joe Brady. Yes, they did. Apparently does not run the ball enough. So they want to run the ball. A lot.

Good news for Chuba Hubbard, I guess. run the ball a lot. Good news for Chuba Hubbard, I guess. I don't think it's great news for the offense. I mean, with Cam Newton, I could see it being effective. Well, they got Atlanta this week and then the schedule of death for Chuba Hubbard.

Let's bring in Mr. Royal wearing his KC Royal shirt, Jacob Gibbs. What's up, Jacob? Welcome. Hey, man. My neighbors just put their dogs out, so perfect timing. Literally right as you're like, let's welcome in Jacob Gibbs.

I had barking outside. Looking forward to that. Good, good. I've got a leaf blower guy going on outside. Can you guys ask them to stop? Tell them we're doing fantasy football today. They'll know. Right. We've got important stuff going on over. You guys ask them to stop. Tell them we're doing fantasy football today. They'll know. Right.

We've got important stuff going on over here. They need to respect that. All right. Our first topic, we usually do five big topics, but we only have four today because the first one has so many moving pieces, so many different teams involved.

What do we expect with some of the returning, starting running backs in comparison to their backups? So we're looking at Aaron Jones, Chase Edmmonds dalvin cook alvin camara and melvin gordon what's the easiest one to knock out here with between green bay arizona minnesota new orleans and denver i'm gonna say minnesota yeah there's just been as good as alexander madison clearly is and as well as he's done in filling in for Dalvin Cook, they have just shown no interest over what three years now in getting Alexander Madison involved with Dalvin Cook is like he he'll get seven carries in a good week, maybe 11 if they're really blowing them out. But for the most part, when Dalvin Cook is active, he's going to get his 20 touches and it really really doesn't matter maybe this will be different maybe because he's had so many shoulder issues but

they have shown zero inclination whatsoever to lighten his load okay then that's it Minnesota we expect Dalvin Cook to be the guy coming back uh personally I wouldn't mind him taking a little time to come back Jacob I, what's next for you? I don't have Dalvin in any leagues, and I've got Madison in a couple, so selfishly. I have Dalvin in three leagues, and I have Madison in four leagues, including all three. And quite frankly, I would just rather it be Madison, because I do think that there's a slight chance that Cook has just a little bit fewer carries now with all the injuries, and he's going to be playing with two bad shoulders.

I don't even want to see the experiment. I'm perfectly fine with it being Madison. He's been great. He's been just a superstar. All right, Jacob, give me the next backfield you want to talk about. Yeah, I agree that Dalvin is the one who's least likely to be affected or the most likely to retain the role that we saw before the injury. I think my next most likely to retain his role would actually be Chase Edmonds of the group that you gave.

I think we can expect him to assume the passing down role for sure when he gets back. And at least like a third of the early down work, the potential for more. So and I think just given his fantasy playoff matchups, he's probably going to project as a top 20, top 24 guy down the stretch. He gets Detroit. And then Indy is not a great matchup, and Dallas isn't a spectacular matchup either, but it's that Dallas and both those games should be competitive

in ones that favor his role, the passing down role, a little bit more. So I don't know. Are you guys expecting him to retain the role that he had when we saw him last? Yes, I think so like james connor's actually been pretty good catching the ball um but he just hasn't been nearly as involved uh but i don't know i don't think james connor's been so good that you should be worried about chase edmunds not getting his role back i do think it'll go back to being a split and edmunds i want to say he has the more valuable role of the two except that chase james connor just does score a touchdown literally every week um yeah

he does all but two of his last 10 game all but one of his last 10 games he has a touchdown um he's doing real jonathan taylor impersonation there. But yeah, absent touchdowns, Edmund's pass-catching role should be more valuable in this offense. Eight to ten carries and five targets should be enough to make him a top 24 running back. I wonder about the carries now. I don't know that he gets the running roll back, the rushing roll back.

And as far as the catches go, if there are two games this year where he has more than four catches. Chase Edmonds, he played eight games. And in those two games, Kyler Murray completed 29 and 28 passes. He has not come close to that in any other game this year. Last week, he completed 11 passes.

It's going to be more like 22-ish per week. So I'm thinking three, four catches per week for Chase Edmonds. And I personally think to me he has gone from a must start in a PPR league or I wouldn't call him must start, but you probably are starting him if you have

a flex, a full PPR. To a guy that I just, I don't really have that much confidence in to be quite honest. I think he's going to have very little chance at scoring a rushing touchdown. Very little. So he's going to have very little chance at scoring a rushing touchdown, very little. So he's going to have to catch a touchdown, which could happen.

But I don't know. I'm thinking three, four catches. Yeah, maybe seven, eight carries. He's not going to win you a league. I don't know. When you're looking at your fantasy playoff teams, probably have a better RB2 than Chase Edmonds. I'm not thrilled about it.

I wonder how you feel about it, Chris, because you've always been so high on him. And then at the same time, we have to acknowledge that this is potentially really bad for James Conner, who is going to become much more touchdown dependent. And we'll probably lose some carries. You know, Benjamin was really not getting in the mix. And the fact that Kyler was running yesterday, I think may not be a great thing for James Connor because this season, so many of their rushing touchdowns have gone to James Connor in a way that while Kenyon Drake did have a lot of rushing touchdowns last season, Kyler ended up with what, 10? Yeah, 11. He's got five now in nine games. So Kyler's been running a little bit less. If Kyler, coming back from that injury, ran 10 times, rushed for a season-high 51 yards, that might have been double his previous season high. He really has not run very much this season.

If that's going to be the case, then James Conner's going to have more competition for touchdowns while being probably a 12-15 carry, 1-2 target guy, if things go back to the way they were. So, yeah, I think Conner and Edmonds are probably both going to be RB2 range type of guys. Yeah, that's what they were in the first eight games of the year in their respective formats though i mean i feel like how could this possibly be right but i checked i double checked james connor in the first eight games despite scoring eight touchdowns he was not a top 20

running back in either format and he was actually 31st in ppr edmunds was uh he only had one touchdown on eight games so this does make sense he He was RB 27 per game in PPR. Connor was averaging 48.1 yards per game, 49.1 yards per game. That's how it happened. He just wasn't good. He was averaging three yards per carry. He was getting 11.8

carries per game. He had no role in the passing game. Yeah. If things go back to being that way, if he goes back to being around 12 carries per game, it's going to be really, really hard for him to be.

I think he'll be like Damian Harris. I think that might be the perfect cut. Maybe more likely to score a touchdown, but in terms of usage, it'll be very similar.

All right, Jacob, give me the next group you want to talk about here. We got Green Bay, the Saints. We talked a lot about Green Bay last week, but that's okay. Green Bay, the Saints, and the broncos uh i think the broncos is the most exciting

um i think it was two or three weeks ago i brought up that um giovante was really involved on passing downs at north carolina as well even though he's sharing the backfield michael carter um he was clearly the preference especially on past blocking downs and i think we've kind of seen a continuation of that at the nfl level and especially this past week, he looked really comfortable on those downs, led the team in targets. And I think it's just possible that he's going to, you know, take more of that role from Melvin Gordon. And I think it makes sense that he should, he's been way more efficient as a pass catcher than Gordon has been this year. Williams has been 42% more likely to draw a target than Melvin Gordon on a per route basis. And his yard per route rate is 65% higher than Gordon's.

But before this week's game, Gordon had played 55% of the third down passing plays and 65% of the two minute offensive snaps. And so I think we could see that role go to Javante Moore, given how companies companies look i think maybe what we see going forward is similar to detroit that was the best comparison i could come up with um where gordon plays kind of a complementary role like we've seen from jamal williams when both swift and williams are healthy um i don't think giovante is going to draw targets at the rate that you know swift has but i think we could see him play like a a mix in role on early downs and then most of the passing downs and then, you know, handle 50 to 60% of the red zone work as well. And that would make Javante a really, really valuable fantasy player and would

leave Gordon as a fringe player, depending on the matchup, you know, if he's only playing 30, 40% of the snaps. Do you think this is going to happen or is this just what you're hoping? I think it's definitely possible. I think you know comfortable he has looked on the passing downs all year and we've seen them slowly moving where he is getting more passing downs i track this stuff every week and they've slowly been moving towards williams a little bit more each week i think over the past three or four games williams has played about 60 or 65 percent of the snaps on the passing downs we talked about gordon playing that amount um earlier and so i think it's it's entirely possible that we just see that continue to happen especially after such a good

showing this week yeah the the key there is weeks 11 and 12 it looks like um Javante Williams played eight third down snaps they had 11 third down snaps between the two games that feels low. It does feel low, man. Maybe I filtered it wrong. I don't know. I'll have to check. I'll get back to you. It was weeks 10 and 12. That was why they had a bye in week 11.

So between weeks 10 and 12, which was two games for them, Javante played 15 of 23 third down snaps. Melvin Gordon played eight. So that change may already have started because we did see Javante play 57% and 58% of the snaps in weeks 10 and 12. Oh, man. All right, let's hope we get that. But I don't think it's going to be Cam Akers' last season

where he was just playing every single snap and getting every touch. No matter what happens, I do think a DeAndre Swift type situation is more likely than Cam Akers or Jonathan Taylor or whatever comparison you want to make. At least if Gordon's health. Let's say Chase Edmonds is back next week and Melvin Gordon is back next week. Who's your favorite running back from those two backfields? I think Edmonds.

Oh, favorite from the two backfields out of the four? I think Javante. I think it would be Javante. Man, I think I'd go Connor just because I'm going to play the touchdown game. I know it's risky,

but he scores all the time. Yeah, I was going to say, maybe he's Detroit the next week. I meant rest of season. I meant rest of season. Sorry. Oh, okay. He did score twice against the Rams earlier in the season. He had a whopping 50 yards on 18 carries.

Because next week, Denver's got the Jets. I mean, even if Gordon's back. Yeah, Javante. No, no, no, no, no. That can't be right. That's not the right schedule. He's got the Lions, Bengals, Raiders, and then Chargers in the Fantasy

Championship game. Yeah, I'm sorry. The Saints have the Jets next week. We're going to talk about them right now. Either way, if you're facing the Lions or the Jets, you're a start next week. Let's go to the Saints. Do you guys think

that Alvin Kamara is going to be a true alpha dog when he's back, hopefully next week, hopefully this week? I don't know about alpha dog. We've talked about him two weeks ago. I think there's an alpha dog across the street, I think, from you.

I don't know. We did see Ty Montgomery targeted at a high rate in the first game with Taysom, which I thought was encouraging because a lot of times when I brought up Kamara's splits with Taysom last year, people would push back with when Michael Thomas was out, and I think that's valid. And we saw our kind of first taste of what it might look like without Michael Thomas, but Taysom's still in our center. And we did see Ty Montgomery target at a really high rate.

And Ty Montgomery played 94% of the snaps in the backfield. So most of those targets were coming from the role that Kamara might be playing. So that's one thing that's encouraging, at least for Kamara. There's still a lot of other obstacles to overcome. Yeah, so he had a 17% target rate or target share in that game, Ty Montgomery did, which is actually right around where Alvin Kamara was with Taysom Hill. He was like 16.5%, which is very good for a running back,

unless you're talking about an offense that's probably going to only pass the ball 25 times. That's, I think, where the issue comes in. One, Kamara's target share dropped from about 21% to about 16.5% last season when Hill was in. And two, Hill just didn't throw the ball very much. So this is a Saints team that already isn't throwing the ball very much. They did throw the ball 41 times last week. So if Taysom Hill is so bad that they have to play from behind like that,

maybe they'll throw more. But my expectations are that this is probably going to be like 26 pass attempts per game and so even then if you're talking about a you know 17 percent target share which for most running backs would be very good i think it would be like the fourth or fifth highest among running backs uh you'd still be talking about what four and a half five targets per game on average which is good but probably not enough to make him a elite fantasy why

what if he's getting 16 carries per game you know what if we're talking about a 20 touch running back yeah but it's a 20 touch running back in a pretty bad offense with a less than an ideal distribution of those touches.

I, you know, I think it would be like, he's not going to get a hundred percent of the goal line work with Mark Ingram there. I wouldn't think, well, he's going to have more like with Taysom Hill there is my concern.

Right, right, right. But he's, but I, I met him on running backs. He's going to split running back work in the goal line and tasem hill is going to have a significant role near the goal line so i just i think it's a lot of things

where it you know the the concept of high value touches and all that like alvin camara used to be an elite high value touch guy his he had few relatively few touches but an incredibly high share of high value touches because he was in a great offense and he got a lot of targets now i think he's sort of in that as ben gretz used to refer to it the trap back role where it's a lot of touches between the 20s and not a lot of targets so all right i do i do worry like i think he's still going to be a top 12 running back but probably not top five. Well, he has been top five per game going forward. And that's with a 16-game pace of 64 catches, 292 carries, and only 3.63 yards per carry.

But he's still been a top five running back. All right, last one is Green Bay. So I'm assuming of all the guys we've talked, forget Minnesota, but looking at Arizona, New Orleans orleans and denver i'm assuming that we have camara the highest of any running back right assuming everyone's back next week uh not including dalvin cook yeah that would be the case for me oh you're muted jacob you're on mute get your ass back here those damn dogs uh yeah i i would have dalvin higher than any of those guys. Not Minnesota.

Jones is. Not Minnesota. I do have Jones right behind Kamara. I think it's closer than you might think. No, that's what I was going to ask. Where's Green Bay compared to the rest of these backfields? If Kamara is the best backfield, if we're eliminating Minnesota,

we think we know what they are. If Kamara is the best of those three backfields, now we throw the Packers in there, who's the second best running back in this group? You say it's Aaron Jones,ones jacob and then is dylan third um hmm yeah i think that yeah i think that makes sense yeah okay and why you so you want to make a case for aaron jones i mean to cut you off no you're good i mean we talked about it at length last week i do think he's going to um step into most of the role that we saw before with the potential for Jones to take some goal line work, or for Dylan to take some goal line work.

But I think he's got a decent schedule and should be playing pretty close to the role that we saw. And he's healthy enough that they brought him back before the bye, which I thought was really bizarre, but they seem to be pretty comfortable with him. So I would expect him to have a pretty substantial role going forward. Yeah. Yeah, no, i think that's mostly

the case i i could see giovante being better than him rest of season if they really do turn things over to giovante more than melvin gordon because i could envision a scenario where giovante williams is actually playing more snaps than aaron jones my expectation would be that Jones would be the second best out of that group after Alvin Kamara. Well, look, what we really don't want to see is a bunch of backfields that don't give us a reliable fantasy options.

So let's keep our fingers crossed that that does not happen, but it obviously could, they could go the way of the Patriots and hopefully that won't be the case. All right, we're going to take a break here. We still have to talk about Elijah Moore, But it obviously could. They could go the way of the Patriots. And hopefully that won't be the case. All right, we're going to take a break here. We still have to talk about Elijah Moore, playoff DSTs, and an ethics question to end the show. We'll be right back with, parentheses, Elijah Moore. Did you know 66% of utility damage is caused by not requesting a locate?

Don't let your project become part of this statistic. A quick locate request can save you from unexpected downtime, financial penalties, and keep you safe. All right, back. If you forgot my the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. All right, back. If you forgot my funny joke, it was about Elijah Moore. All right. Matt Santos wants to know, is Elijah Moore a must-start every week, rest of season, and in the playoffs? And his schedule is the Saints, the Dolphins, the Jaguars, and the Bucs in his next four games.

You've seen better schedules, but yeah, you've seen worse too. He did just face the Eagles, who have been amazing against wide receivers, and he had 77 yards and a touchdown on 12 targets. So, Chris, do you think Elijah Moore is a must start? He was started in 59% of leagues in Week 13. So he has a target share over 30% in three straight games. Corey Davis is groin injury. He suffered a setback with that this week.

So I would guess he's going to miss some time moving forward. There's not a lot of competition for targets. Zach Wilson has looked okay the last couple of weeks. And also, I mean, how many good wide receivers are there for fantasy right now? Like wide receivers that you really feel good about? I got bailed out yesterday late in that game when Odell Beckham of faith in the other wide receivers as it was thinking that Odell Beckham was going to actually play a bigger role than he did. It's just not a great position right now. The passing game issues that we've seen around the league have really hurt the wide receiver position. So I think Elijah Moore, he's going to be a top 24 wide receiver for me this week, I would expect, and it's entirely possible he's top 20, maybe top 16.

I guess that means that's a yes. I think so. All right, Jacob, what do you think? Is Elijah Moore a must start? I think so. There's probably going to be a week or two where the Jets offense just completely implodes and he doesn't get there for you, and that's frustrating, and you definitely don't want that to happen to playoffs,

but just from a volume perspective, I think you've got to have them out there. You gave that schedule. They've in addition to being several pass funnel defenses that really, you know, force you to beat them with through the air. They also face a lot of teams that they're probably going to be playing from behind against.

And so I think we're going to see 40 plus drop backs as long as the offense is able to even you know get that many plays off each week and the percentages of the targets and air yards that more is getting right now are just ridiculous and if if we see that much passing volume from new york every week even if it's not efficient i think just through volume we're going to see him get there like we've seen lately i mean he had 200 air yards this week. He had the highest air yardage share of any player in the NFL in week 13. Yeah, average depth of target was 16, I believe. Against the Eagles.

That's huge. The Eagles don't let anyone pass deep on them. They have the lowest opponent average depth of target in the NFL. And Elijah Moore is just like, I don't care. I'm really, really good. And I don't know. I think it's really, really exciting. I think he is a must start every week. I'm watching this one out right now

that he ran not against Slay and he completely destroyed this defensive back and Zach Wilson made a bad pass and then later on, he beat Slay deep at a step or two. I wouldn't say two, at a step and Wilson underthrew it. So you are going to have to deal with that.

It's kind of like Devontae Smith and Jalen Hurts. There are going to be some off-target passes, but I am so impressed with Moore. One thing I do really like as well, and this is a small thing, but he's got a rush attempt in three straight games now, and obviously one rush attempt per game, that's not going to make a big impact. Maybe you get 12 yards on it,

but I could also envision a scenario where he has a rush attempt to picks up 28 yards and you'll see this a lot when you have a successful situation like that teams will start to go back to it and so that's just kind of hidden value that doesn't come up that you know not a lot of wide receivers have and you know if he's gonna if he averages a carry per game too, that's just another way for him to get points and possibly a way to get touchdowns. We've seen that with Robert Woods

over the last couple of seasons where he'll steal a couple touchdowns close to the end zone that way. So it's mostly just a sign that they recognize what they have and they really want to get him involved. Yeah, I've seen now in the last couple of weeks, I mean, I've seen it, I've been watching it,

I'm watching it right now. He's gotten open on Byron Jones, on Zavian Howard, on Darius Slay. I'm not nervous about Marshawn Lattimore. It's not like Lattimore's going to be on him every single play, I don't think anyway. I don't want to Kedarious Tony this, but I'm really excited about Elijah Moore.

And he's so much different than Tony. I mean, Tony's this freak. He's shifty. He makes these incredible moves I've never seen. Moore is a much more polished receiver. I think we are seeing that. And it's showing up in the production. So I'm going to have a hard time sitting him.

No, he's been really good. He had more than one good game, I would say. He had about a game and a half. But he also had three catches for 39 yards on one drive against the Rams. He was on fire. And it was against the Rams. Right, but the point is, Elijah Moore has had six or more targets now

in seven straight games. He's had four really good, five really good fantasy games in a row now. And really, he's had six games in a row where he's had at least 12 he's tied at least 12 points in six in a row now he's i didn't even realize this over the past month he's tied with stefan diggs for the highest target per route run rate in the nfl over 30 and justin jefferson's the only one who has a higher area to share over the past month and like he just saw his role expanded in terms of how much he's playing last week, two weeks ago.

Like before that, he was only playing like 70% of the snaps and still he has the highest target power running second highest area. Sure. Like that's just nuts. All right, guys, let's go to the playoff DSTs to stash.

Now playoff DSTs to stash. I looked at DSTs that were rostered in 75% of leagues or fewer. So not the must-own DSTs or must-roster DSTs. I'm giving you matchups week 15 if you just want to play it week by week. Maybe you don't need anything in week 14.

You got to buy or something like that. Or you've locked up a spot. Or teams that have multiple good matchups so you know i would just say honestly the chiefs dst is playing so well that their defense is really good now they're 50 percent rostered they're at the chargers in week 15 yeah 15 i have to get used to that chargersgers, Steelers, Bengals. It's not a great schedule, but the Chiefs are very good right now. I got a lot here. What's the 49ers roster rate? Over 75%.

Their schedule is. Yeah, keep them. The Bengals who are struggling, they've got the Falcons, the Titans, and the Texans between now and week 17. That is pretty awesome. Cleveland has the Raiders, Packers, and Steelers, so that's two solid matchups in three games.

The Bears have Seattle and the Giants in week 16 and 17. Minnesota is not a great matchup in week 15, but if you... Look, a lot of people do kind of load up on DST or at least roster two because they're obsessed with DST matchups. I think it's a mistake because, you know, you're not competing with a lot of teams on the waiver wire at that point.

You can get a DST. It's not difficult. But if you want to do this, the Bears have a great finish to their schedule. I like the Seahawks. They've got the Bears and the Lions in weeks 16 and 17. I assume the Broncos are too highly rostered? No, actually, they are not. They've got a great one. Starting in week 14, they've got the Lions, the Bengals, and the Raiders in the next three games.

Chargers in week 17 is tougher. Not necessarily going to be there for the championship game, but you could start them against all three of the next three games, I think. Yeah, you could start the Broncos, sure. You could start the Raiders. I'm not going to start the Raiders. Yeah, I don't know.

I don't really know what to tell you. How about this? The Chargers. You're not going to start them against the Chiefs, most likely, although the Chiefs are the worst offense in the world. That's week 15.

But week 16 for the Chargers is Houston, and week 17 is Denver. So I don't have a great answer for you on this. I'm not going to just manufacture what I think is a great answer. I don't think there is one. But I do think the Chiefs are playing really well. They're 50% rostered.

And the Steelers are one of their matchups. The Bengals, the Chargers can be... The Chargers give up a lot of sacks, so... Yeah, Chiefs, Bears, Seahawks, Broncos, Chargers, whatever. I'm kind of... The Chargers, if they're available, that would be a good one because at least three of the next four games, you're going to want to use them.

They've got the Giants, Chiefs, Texans, and Broncos. Right. Yeah, I wasn't even looking at Week 14, but yeah, Chargers are a good option. Either way, you're probably not picking up one and holding it through all three matchups, right? You're likely picking up the Broncos or the Chiefs or something like that for the next couple weeks. I don't know what these people are doing, Jacob. I don't know. They're hoarding DSPs. I will say, at this point in the season, I am more likely to keep a second defense on my roster than I would be in week two.

Just because at this point in the season, I'm not taking as many of those lottery ticket flyers. I'm not looking for the, hey, what if this guy breaks out? You're kind of trying to make sure your starting lineup is as solid as possible rather than having as many potential starters, which is the way I view it early in the season. So I am more likely to drop someone like Cortland Sutton this week. If I don't know, like if I have a good defense, who's got a bad matchup in week 14, but they've got a good one in week 15 and I want to hang on

to them. Like I'm more likely to do that now than I would have been 10 weeks ago. All right. And the last one that comes from BK, is it okay to punt a game to eliminate a particular opponent from the playoffs? So like you're purposely, you're like losing to give another team a win that would like eliminate someone else. Yes.

Yes. Absolutely. I am against, I am against trying to lose a game on purpose i think you should no matter what even in a dynasty league and this is a this has been a source of contention in the league that i'm in with heath even you should be making your best faith effort to win every week even if your overall goal is to not win as many games as possible. That is the distinction I draw. I think ethically, you owe it to the people in your league

to try to win every game. Yeah, I know, but let's talk about the specifics of this, right? So you've got whatever your situation is. You've either got a seed locked in or you're eliminated or whatever. This week means nothing to you but you hate jacob gibbs and you're playing chris towers and you love chris tower so you want to chris and jacob are tied for the last playoff seed you know you want to give chris the win to knock out jacob so what does that mean when we say you can't do that? Does that mean we get to tell you who to start? No, you can do whatever you want.

Yeah, so I say you really can't throw the game, but I don't really know how to enforce that. I don't really know what that means. You can't start a player on a bye. I am in a league where we have made anti-tanking part of our approach because we had some issues last year with people taking advantage of the lack of rules um and so yeah you you will be punished if you uh if you

intentionally tank and it's it's a like it's a i know it when i see it kind of thing like i i can't define it but you know when someone's tanking, you know, when Heath was starting Davis mills instead of Patrick Mahomes, he was tanking. Um, of course it was Heath. It backfired by the way.

Yes. Davis mills actually did have at least one week where he was better than Mahomes. Um, but look like if you don't have rules against it, then there's nothing wrong with it in terms of the legality of the move it's it's an ethics question we're talking about ethics and in fantasy sports and um i don't think you should do that i will judge you if you do that but

my judgment should mean nothing to you who am i i agree with It's just, I judge people all the time. So I agree with you, but I just don't, uh, it's like the quarterbacks thing last week. Well, that was, you guys are wimps.

You guys are babies and you're wimps and you're wrong. Okay. I'm just going to throw that out. But no, but like the thing is like, it would be a jerk move to tank a game to keep someone out of the playoffs. But, but that doesn't mean you can't do it.

We're saying you can't do it. You can be a jerk. No, but you can be... So, Jacob, we were talking about using all of your fab to... You're in the playoffs and you know your opponent needs a quarterback and you use all your fab to get five quarterbacks, you know? Of course, yeah. Yeah, that's fine.

I mean, that's not a jerk move. That's a brilliant move and good for you. It fine. I mean, that's not a jerk move. That's a brilliant move and good for you. It's a jerk move. It's not a jerk move, but that's different than just losing a game on purpose. how did you feel about the fake slide

in the college game? That was a jerk move. But it's legal. That was different. It's legal. It was smart. It was awesome. It's not really legal.

It was cool. It's not legal. It's not really legal. Sure it is. You didn't get penalized for it. It's not really legal. It was cool. It's not legal. It's not really legal. Sure it is. You didn't get penalized for it. It's not a penalty, but the officials should have blown the play dead. I was actually listening to the officiating expert

on that game. He said, I wish the officials had blown the play dead. Kenny Pickett, who could be the first quarterback off the board in the NFL draft for the Pittsburgh Panthers. Yes, Giants are going to end up with a quarterback whose last name is Pickett.

He faked a slide. The defense stopped. It was a pretty cool play. He kept going and gained additional yards. Yeah, but look, he was allowed to do it. Not really, though.

It was not officiated properly. But he was. He did it. But this is different. How do you make a fantasy team not tank? That's what I'm saying. Do you say, oh, well, this quarterback's projected for more points, so you have to start him?

Or do you just say, okay, make any line of decisions you want, but don't make any egregious add drops or something like that? It's not fine. It's not fine. It disrupts the competitive balance of the league. I agree. It's absolutely not fine at alls the competitive balance of the league. I agree. It's absolutely not fine at all. I'm not okay with it.

I agree. I'm not going to say to that manager, well, you really shouldn't have done it. It was like Kenny Pickett's fake slide. It was wrong, but it's okay. I'm not going to say that. I'm going to say, no, buddy, you're out of the damn league.

Sure, like if you want to go that way, then that's one option you have. But unless you have that kind of rule, it's fine. Are you saying, Brandon, that Kenny Pickett is... I said Kenny Pickett on the Pittsburgh Panthers. That's what he is on the Pittsburgh Panthers, in case anybody was confused. He is the college quarterback.

If you think he's going to be on the Steelers next year, then that could be the case as well. No, it's not fine to do that. That is so much different than picking up quarterbacks to block your opponent. One is trying to win. One is trying to lose. We don't tolerate trying to lose around here.

But it's trying to win in the long run. No, it's not trying to win. It has nothing to do with you, unless you're saying you're trying to weaken your playoff competition. If you're going by head-to-head record and there's one team that has like 180 more points for the season than the other one,

but they have the same record, you lose to the worst team to keep the better team out of the playoffs. Oh, I can't do it. No, you have to try to win every week. That's why I'm saying, I don't mind if you want to build your team to lose in a dynasty league, that's fine.

But you should be, the rule, the way I run my league is, no matter what type of team you're building, you have to make a good faith effort to try to win every week. With whatever crappy roster you have. So stick to that. If you don't have that rule, then there's nothing

against it. Wrap it up, Jacob. What do you think? I've got nothing to add. I'm here to give data analysis. I've got nothing on the fantasy ethics question. Imagine if I did that to you. Because you know how much I hate you. Imagine if I tanked to Chris to let him get in and knock you out. How mad would you be at me? I'd be mad. But if there's no rule in place, I don't know what you can do. I guess I'd kick

you out of the league. Some things don't require rules. You know, I mean, it shouldn't have to be a rule. It's so obvious that you can't do that. All right, everybody. Thank you for watching. Thank you for listening. If you couldn't do it, you wouldn't be able to do it. Okay.

I don't know how to argue with that. So we'll end the show on that note. For Chris and Jacob, I'm Adam. Have a great day, everybody. Enjoy Monday Night Football. Hopefully it's a blizzard, and we'll talk end the show on that note. For Chris and Jacob, I'm Adam. Have a great day, everybody. Enjoy Monday Night Football. Hopefully it's a blizzard and we'll talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football.