Fantasy Football Today - Five Big Topics! Kupp in 2022, Surprising Players, Dynasty Sells (01/03 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: January 3, 2022

The Packers clinched the #1 seed and dominated on Sunday night. We recap the game to start the show and then give you the news and notes (8:00) you'll need for Week 18 ... Kicking off our Five Big Topics with some suggestions on how to make your league better (10:30)! Add a flex! But don't eliminate the TE position, that's just silly. Also, which players surprised us in 2022 (15:40)? Deebo Samuel, Diontae Johnson and Michael Pittman were among the pleasant surprises ... Let's rank Cooper Kupp in 2022 (28:50). Is he WR1? WR2? How much regression is on the way? We'll also talk about players to sell in Dynasty (38:10) and lessons we learned in 2021 (48:00) ... Email us at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. Tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races.

Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Beck. Where will Cooper Cupp be ranked in 2022? Is he wide receiver one next year? Maybe Devontae Adams out of it. Maybe Jamar Chase. We'll talk about that.

We'll see what the listeners think about that as well. We'll also recap last night's game. Is there any rhyme or reason to the usage of the running backs in Green Bay? And boy, should we just have sat Dalvin Cook? I mean, did we learn any type of lesson last night with a backup quarterback in? I'm Adam with Chris, and we got Jacob joining us a little bit later. Our five big topics today, mostly 2022 stuff. How about best tweaks to fantasy leagues?

You know, different formats, things like that. Players that have exceeded our expectations. Cooper Cup in 2022. Dynasty must-sell players. And anything we learn this year that can be used in next year's draft. All right. Chris, you go undefeated. Did you win?

I won all three of my championships that I was still alive for. So, you know, it came down to the wire. I needed to thread a needle with Devontae Adams scoring a certain amount of points without Aaron Rodgers scoring a certain amount of points to win two different leagues. But I got it. Nice. One, finished off my perfect season in my second longest running league.

I'm very happy with the way this season went. That's great. Probably my best fantasy season ever. Well, now you've got to do it again next year. Now the pressure's on. Oh, God. Just retire. Well, that's awesome.

Perfect season I'm quite envious of. All right, let's get down to business here. 37-10 Packers. And for those of us playing into Week 18, it may not even matter what we say here. The Packers say they're not necessarily going to rest anyone. I think they're going to play a little bit. You know, don't know if they're going to play

the whole game, but they've got the one seed, but they don't want to take too much time off, so they're going to play a little bit, but in that regard... We'll be shocked if the starters played a full game. I guess the only thing I want to talk about, maybe, is do you think, do you think Alan Lazard is,

is emerging as anything that could be consistent or reliable say next season, if they bring the whole band back? I don't think consistent or reliable would be the way that I would put it. I mean, his yardage totals over the last five games are 72, 45, 23, 75,

and 13. I think like they moved him into the slot probably, what, five or six weeks ago maybe? And we have seen a little bit of a boost in production from him, but I still think you're looking at someone who's a wide receiver for moving forward. I think he's talented, but he's got 54 targets this season. I just don't think there's enough there terrible game for dalvin cook 13 total yards and also left with an injury late in the third quarter and quite honestly i don't know if he came back they didn't have the

ball much after that um but it's something to keep an eye on for week 18 if you're playing they may just shut it down. They got Chicago next week. And Jefferson was fine. Six for 58 on 11 targets, but certainly not Jefferson. Osborne happened to catch a touchdown. But you never know what to do. Sean Mannion was really, really bad. It was awful, yeah.

You can't hold anything against anyone in that game because of it. Because he just, I don't know, he didn't look like an NFL. I mean, this is, it feels like it's kind of a pandemic. Oh, gosh, I don't want to use that word, but, you know. Across the NFL, there are these backup quarterbacks who seem to have no competition for their job, and then they actually, like the Giants yesterday is the perfect example where, like, how can Mike Glennon be in the NFL again after that game? for their job and then they actually like the giants yesterday is the perfect example where like

how can mike glennon be in the nfl again after that game yeah he's been in the nfl for so long like how can a team like actually look at at mike glennon and say that's someone that makes our roster better and improves our chances of winning maybe he's a really great guy to have around but like sean manion just didn't look like someone who can do anything really on an NFL field. He looked totally overmatched. The Packers are a tough matchup, but that's it.

It's a bad sign for Kellen Mond that he's seemingly so far behind Sean Mannion. Yeah. And Mike Zimmer was asked if he wanted to see Kellen Mond next week, and he said not particularly or something like that. I think the quote was like, I see enough of him or something, or I see him every day.

It was something like really dismissive. Yeah, yeah. He seems pretty angry with the way the season has gone. They're 7-9 in the limit. He's about to get fired, so. Oh, if he got fired, would want to i would hope the giants would scoop him up that would you know i wouldn't i he wouldn't be a free agent for long if if i were if i were the gm of every team unfortunately joe judge gets to pick the giants next gm i don't

think that's the case uh minnesota is the nine seed right now they have been eliminated there's only one team in the nfC that's currently out of the playoffs that is still alive, and that is New Orleans. Yeah. And I believe... Three teams fighting for two spots. I believe...

No, I don't think so. ...if the Steelers lose... I think... Our website has the Eagles as in. Okay, so two teams fighting for one spot. I think in the AFC, if the Steelers lose, it's down to four teams for two spots.

Let me see. The AFC, we know the Chargers and Raiders are... No, if the Steelers... Oh, yeah, Baltimore's still alive, huh? I think you're right, Chris. I believe the Steelers lose tonight, and what's the scenario? If the Steelers lose tonight and the Colts lose on Sunday,

then the Chargers and Raiders would both get in with a tie. Yeah, more realistically, if the Colts lose, which they won't, they're at Jacksonville. But if the Colts lose and the Steelers lose, then I think the Ravens would be in with a win next week.

Yes, assuming that the Chargers and Raiders don't tie next week. Don't tie, right. Chargers, Raiders in prime time for a playoff spot. And let me tell you, man. Or to just tie. Just kneel the ball. Yeah.

Hey, let's just go out there and tie. 40 times each. That's funny. The Chargers are not a team I'd want to face in the playoffs. No. They are healthy on defense. Their entire secondary was healthy yesterday. And they, Justin Jones is the man.

And their defensive tackle. And they're dangerous. And they almost beat the Chiefs. And that could be a first-round matchup, right? That would be incredible. That could be seven versus two. That would be an incredible first-round matchup. All right, Jacob's waiting patiently, so let's move on here.

We still got the newsletter. What's the newsletter sitch as we get close to the offseason? Well, I'm going to finally take some time off at some point in January and February, maybe like a month. But I'm hoping that Dave, Jamie, and Heath will be willing to pick up the slack for a couple weeks and get some guest posts up there. Maybe if Jacob wants to take a week. What about me?

You could do it. I just know you hate writing. I don't hate writing. I'm just bad at it. Well, that's why we have editors. But yeah, we're going to be producing the Fantasy Football Today newsletter all off-season. We're going to be talking Dynasty stuff. I'm doing the 2022 early rankings right now this week.

We'll have at least one every week throughout the off-season. Make sure you keep subscribing, keep opening, keep clicking. Is it one a week? Keep my job. At least one a week. I can handle that. Some news and notes other than the stuff you probably already know, So I said one a week. Keep my job. At least one a week. All right. I can handle that. Some news and notes other than the stuff you probably already know,

like Michael Carter leaving with the concussion and all that. Some offensive line injuries to keep an eye on for three playoff teams or at least two and a half playoff teams. Kansas City right tackle Lucas Niang left in the first quarter and Cincinnati left guard Quentin Spain left in the second quarter. Chargers center Corey Lindsley, left with a back injury. Cornerback Xavier Rhodes for the Colts, he left with a hamstring injury.

I have no idea the severity of any of these. But it could be a Le'Veon Bell show in week 18, as both Ronald Jones and Keyshawn Vaughn got hurt in week 17, so we'll keep an eye on that. I didn't see Keyshawn Vaughn got hurt. Injured ribs. That's interesting. In terms of who's going to sit and who's going to rest,

all I saw so far is that the Bucs are not resting players. The Packers, the way they're talking, it seems like, I don't know, maybe a half, something like that. And Washington's going to start Taylor Heineke, but Ron Rivera said, alluding to sort of looking at younger players, I don't even know what that means for them.

Michael Gallup tore his ACL and Seattle linebacker Bobby Wagner sprained his knee. Probably won't need surgery or anything like that, but you will not you should not expect to see him in week 18, which could be could mean his last game as a Seahawk ends with injury, which would suck.

All right, Jacob Gibbs now staring at the 2C, doesn't even have the Chiefs jersey or starter jacket on. Is it Carl Anthony Towns' shirt? Yeah, this is an old shirt. There you go. I like it. Good afternoon, Jacob. How are you? I am good, man.

I mean, it was a tough week for the Chiefs, but it was a fun week overall. A lot of interesting nuggets, takeaways for fantasy. And I'm really excited to get into this kind of, you know, end of season, re-evaluation dynasty. I love this. This is my favorite time. You know what I mean? Just really digging into the data.

So I'm pumped. And how about Braxton Berrios? Okay. Jacob told you. Right. Look at Braxton Berrios. And did you know that on the last play that the Jets ran, there were a QB sneak that turned the ball over on downs to the Bucs? A fourth and two QB sneak with the game on the last play that the Jets ran, their QB sneak that turned the ball over on downs to the Bucs.

Their fourth and two QB sneak with the game on the line. It was supposed to be a reverse to Braxton Berrios. And Wilson had the option to keep it. And he did. And Salah said

if they had handed it off to Berrios, we would have been a first down and they would have won the game. But good job. Good call on Berrios. Now, on to our five big topics.

Chris, I'm going to give you the first word this comes from a person named chris so how about that chris abbott best tweaks to fantasy leagues tight end premium multiple flex spots points for tackles for a loss points for first down etc what do you think so i don't um i know a lot of people hate pbr or think that points per first down are better i don't think that one really makes any difference to me. Like if you want to do it, that's fine. So I think the way I would do it would be to reflect the way the NFL game gets played now. And that would be introducing more

flex spots, introducing more wide receivers in particular. I play in two wide receiver leagues still, and it's not fun having to make your decisions when you've got a bunch of good receivers. I end up having to sit. Gosh, I sat somebody good. Can't remember who. Maybe Terry McLaurin. I sat him for most of the season in one of my leagues.

So yeah, I think at least three wide receivers. I think two flex spots makes leagues a lot more fun. The ball gets spread around so much more now in the NFL than it did 25 years ago, 30 years ago when fantasy football was really in its infancy. And so I think we should reflect the way the game is played. Tight end premium is fine. It doesn't really change the landscape all that much. There's still only going to be like five good tight ends in any given season.

I don't like tight. I'm just going to say, I, I don't get it. I think it's like I play in a couple. It's fine. Like it makes George Kittle and Travis Kelsey and those guys first round picks in a way that they might not be for most.

Although we just did our top 24 for 2022 and I will have three tight ends in the top 15 picks in my ranking so uh yeah you had that last year right yes 2021 um yeah I I don't I just it's so strange to just do different scoring for a different position what is the point of that I I don't like it at all to be honest yeah and and then you know I, but I think playing around with the roster spots, playing around with, I've had an idea for one of my leagues that I've always thought would be fun.

You get one mulligan per year that you have to use in the first half of that player's game. And so if a player gets hurt in the first half or gets off to a bad start, you can use it. But you get one per year, you can't use it again, and only in the

first half of a player's game. So stuff like that, just to have a little more fun, have a little more flexibility. I'm always down for keeper leagues. I'm always down for salary cap drafts, auction drafts. Um, but I'm also not a particularly, uh, inventive person. So maybe Jacob has some more fun ideas. Can you use thatulligan in the playoffs yeah sure if you if you held it in your pocket i i've never actually done it in a league i just i've always thought it would add some really really interesting strategic wrinkles because you know someone would use it in the first week what about do you have to if you use the mulligan can you replace that player with someone who's already played

or someone who still has yet to play? I think it would have to be someone whose first half is not over. Okay. I think that's the way the rule would be for me. I'm all about adding flexes and, you know, I think 10-team super flex is great. 12-team super flex is fine, but if you get some injuries there, it's really tough.

But yeah, adding roster spots, fewer bench spots and more starters. One thing we've done in one of my hometown leagues is we just removed the tight end position and just made that a flex. And I feel like I've never really heard that. You hate that? Jacob, no.

You still can use tight ends. You should have to use a tight end. I don't know why. Why? Why do you have to use two running backs? Why You should have to use a tight end. I don't know why. Why? Then why do you have to use two running backs? Why do you have to use a quarterback? Why do you have to use any of them? No positions.

Because there's plenty. There's no worry about finding a quarterback or running back. It's part of the strategy. It's strategy. What are you going to just punt? You say, oh, we don't play with catchers. We play fantasy baseball, no catchers. Who would do that?

That sounds more fun, yeah. No. No, there's there's strategy involved in it uh don't take the easy way out jacob i i like it i like tight ends but i'm also a weirdo who likes kickers no tight end is my favorite position i love i think i think having to figure out how to balance uh you know is travis kelsey worth a first round pick yeah i love it like i think that that adds a really interesting wrinkle to the game where you know you're you're kind of cutting off this entire position well you're not cutting it off with the exception of four guys five guys i

mean who would you have started in a no no tight end league this year right yeah probably five or six guys yeah um but it's i mean you can still like you give values on those guys like i got kelsey in like the third round because people didn't necessarily know how to handle it at first i'm like just view him as a receiver he's still like a top eight receiver you know what i mean he's still yeah it makes it interesting but i get what you're saying it does make it easier topic number two from morgan who are the players that have exceeded your expectations and that would be going to go to jacob for that first um yeah so like the most obvious one is is cooper cup but um yeah no cup our next topic is cup right right yeah um i really want to hit on debo he's the

other like really obvious one um but like just what we saw from him this year i think was honestly more unprecedented than what we saw from cup or really anyone um he made a leap from a 22 target per hour run rate through his first two years to 26 this year which is like really impressive and on its own but what we saw like the first eight weeks of the season um obviously kiddo was hurt but like what we saw then was far beyond what i really held in the realistic range of possibilities for debo i feel like he had a 33 percent rate during that time in his first seven games he's targeted on 33 percent of his routes and he was targeted on 30 percent of his routes and five of his seven games to open the season um just for reference in 20 games in which he ran

at least 15 routes prior to 2021 uh he only reached that 30 mark two times and he's done it six times this year and it's just i really didn't think that debo had like true wide receiver one target hawk potential in him you know like we just never really saw that um but that's exactly what he's shown this year and it's come on a career high 8.5 yard average depth of target it's not like he's only being used around the line of scrimmage like we saw last year um and so like i mean and then on top of that you just have the rushing added in too you know what i mean just this other element that just makes him a complete cheat code and fantasy like it's it's really wild what we saw from him so i think he's the one that really really stands out um another

guy that I think will of course fly under the radar because I mean I'm always pounding the drum for him and him flying under the radar is Deontay Johnson and you're probably shocked to hear me say that Adam because my expectations for him are so high I think I comped him to you know his early career trajectory to Michael Thomas going into the year and still I'm here like saying that I'm I'm really impressed by what we saw. I think what we did, what we saw from him, like considering how bad the situation in Pittsburgh was,

was really, really impressive. He maintained, he maintained like the truly elite target per run rate that we saw last year. I mean, he was third in the NFL this year in targets per outrun. And that came while increasing his average depth of target by 10% from

last year to this year. So he's drawing targets at an identical rate to the breakout year last year even with those targets coming deeper downfield and he also finally like improved his efficiency that's something that i know he rags on him a lot for and just everybody you know i mean like a lot of people think he's like not actually a good player that just that just ben favors him but like he was really pretty efficient this year he's one of 15 players with a yard per route run rate above two yards um and just to see him maintain just the target dominance basically every single game and just be consistent even with what was going on in pittsburgh um i think was really really impressive i and i still don't think do you think people are giving him his due as like a top 10 top 12 guy going forward or do you think he's still just

going to be considered a wire a wide receiver two type guy? Well, let's see. Well, I did not put him in my top 10, but it was not an easy call. He's a top 10 guy for me. He's been a top 10 guy for me all season, pretty much. Oh, sorry. Yes, I should clarify.

I didn't put him in my top 10. We did 2022 rankings. Going forward, yeah. He missed the cut, but I kind of forgot about him. You forget about him, right? That's just how it goes. And it's just like, he's just doing his thing. He's just like continuing to be like a premier target hog.

I didn't put him in and I didn't put Michael Thomas in. And those were two tough ones. I'm taking Calvin Ridley out. Calvin Ridley was my number 10. I'm going to put Deontay in there. And then another receiver that I just want to hit on in detail real quick is michael pitman um i don't think any anyone really increased from like 2020 to 2021 increased their rates the way pitman did his target per outrun rate is up 41 from his rookie year to this year he was bad he was really bad yes like in terms of targets per outrun yards per outrun

catch rate touchdown rate like whatever efficiency metric you want to use he was pretty consistently like 138 out of 140 players it was a really discouraging year if you look at other rookies who have had the types of rookie year that he did like it's a really really gross list i was like all the way out on pimp and going into 2021 but like target program right up 41 and that was with his average depth of target increasing from 8.3 to 9.8 yards and then yard program rate was up even more 43 and then he did it with consistency too he's targeted on 25 of his routes and just one of 13 games as a rookie he hit that mark eight times this year and he topped 27 he topped out at 27 in year one that

was the highest he had all year in any game um he just really didn't show like any signs of target target hog potential and that was even with hilton and everybody out last year as well you know he didn't really have much competition but he just he didn't he didn't draw targets at a high rate um and then this year he's hit that 27 mark that he topped out last year six times, and he's topped 30% four times. And that's like true target hog potential. That's wide receiver one stuff. And so I really didn't think that that was in his wheelhouse.

I just did not expect that we would see anything like what we saw from him this year. So I think it's not as impressive as Debo, but in terms of really unexpected, I think what we saw from him stands out more than almost any player for me really. So Debo, Michael Pittman and Deontay Johnson for you. Yeah. I mean, there's other guys, Hunter Renfro, Joe Burrow, really, really surprised me this year. I thought he was excellent. Jalen Waddle. And then I guess I'm on our St. Brown as well.

I'm not entirely sold on all these guys, but like what, what they did was unexpected to me for sure. Yeah. Like Waddle, at least sold on all these guys but like what what they did was unexpected to me for sure yeah like waddle waddle dionte hunter renfro and uh and amonra saint brown it's kind of like a nesting doll situation where there's like just each one's just a better version of the next one um but the thing i struggle with all of them and and particularly Renfro and NARSB, is like Renfro was on pace for 840 yards and six touchdowns before Darren Wallard injury.

Amandre St. Brown was basically useless for fantasy until DeAndre Swift and TJ Hawkinson went out. And even Waddle and DeAndre to a certain extent, their roles in their offenses are partially a function of, I don't know if the right word is the dysfunction of their offenses, but the limitations of the quarterbacks that they're playing with. Because Waddle gets so many targets on those quick RPO reads, and he's really good at that.

Deontay gets open really, really well, really, really quickly. And Ben doesn't want to hold the ball. And so I do wonder if like in different different situations can these guys be as good, but that's true of Devontae Adams. That's true of Cooper Cup. To a certain extent, everybody's a product of their situation. Except theirs isn't changing. That's the problem with Deontay is the uncertainty, right?

Well, but it's also true of Renfro. It's true of Amon Ross St. Brown. It's true of Waddle, potentially. I crapped on Renfro. It's true of Amon Ross St. Brown. It's true of Waddle, potentially. I crapped on Renfro a little bit yesterday. Not exactly, but it is so obvious what has happened with Hunter Renfro to me, and it's exactly what you said. It's Ruggs and Waller being out of the picture. But the thing that's really hard about that is it'd be one thing

if these guys were going out there and getting 11 targets per game and averaging six yards per target but Renfro and Amon Ross St. Brown have actually been quite efficient yeah I'm sure he could be efficient but it's not gonna be it's not like Ricky Davis throwing up a shot on his own basket to get a rebound for a triple double you know it's it's not like uh no that's the thing that's really hard about them to me it's not I just I don't think that you build your offense around Hunter Renf them to me it's not I just I don't think that you build your offense around Hunter Renfro you know it's 100%

they're gonna want better options right exactly if Waller's healthy if they add a wide receiver they're gonna have to add a wide receiver in some capacity I just don't see well I don't want to get off on a Renfro tangent here are there other players you wanted to talk about I think

it's entirely possible that this is like the peak of what we've seen from Renfro, but still, aren't we all shocked by what we did see? Yes. He was legitimately cutting into Darren Waller's rates a little bit before. He's going to have 100 catches and a thousand yards. He's a solid player. Don't get me wrong. I had no idea that this was possible for him, really.

No. Yeah, so I would say josh jacobs his pass catching role and i'll throw leonard fournette in that same category i just didn't think that that would happen but that's the tough thing about passing game roles being so important for running backs is to a certain extent they can just change overnight it did for fournette you know it's surprising that bernard didn't have that. But for Jacobs, it was really about Drake getting injured. Sure. But he's been the only guy before.

This was the first time they ever trusted him like that. Debo, man. When I first did my rankings and projections for the 2021 season, I had him ahead of Brandon Ayuk as a top 24 wide receiver, and I let everyone else talk me out of it, and I still would have been way off on him, but my initial reaction was because of the rushing game workload, because of how good he is with the ball in his hands,

I just thought, like, man, if his target, if the value of his targets just increases a little bit, he could be really good. Gosh, okay. Who surprised me? Well, I'll say Josh Allen surprised me in that he sustained it. I thought there was going to be regression, and there was a little bit of regression,

but you're talking about a guy who is the only fantasy quarterback in 2021 and 2020 and 2021 to average 28 points per game, which is really impressive. He's my number one quarterback for 2022. Sorry, Jacob. That's Russell Wilson. We got a pretty good missed.

Russell Wilson surprised me in the wrong direction. He's been so inefficient. I think the finger injury plays a big role in that, but I just, I kind of thought he was bulletproof when it came to efficiency well let's take a look at his first five games for the injury and i'll just give you his 16 game pace was 3827 yards 32 touchdowns three interceptions with 218 rushing touchdowns a a 125.3 passer rating, a 72% completion rate. And by the way, if that number sounds low, 3,827 yards, he left one of those games injured.

But he was incredible. 9.6 yards per attempt, 72% completion rate, and again, 125.3 passer rating. So I'd be interested to see how, you know, post-mortem, what they say about the thumb and how much it really hindered him. He already said that he came back too early. But before the injury, Russell Wilson was MVP worthy. Middle finger, right?

I don't remember. I thought it was one of these two, but a finger. Yeah. And I'll say I think Kyle Pitts is being viewed as a disappointment by a lot of people um at least from a fantasy perspective and i guess he kind of was but he's gonna be the best tight end in the nfl really soon i got he's so fired up yesterday because i said maybe we i said believe it or not he should be number two ahead of Mark Andrews, and he just went bonkers. I think I have him at number four at tight end.

Yeah, I do. Just because I think George Kittle might be the best tight end in football, and it's mostly just about not getting as many targets. But the rookie season Kyle Pitts had, one touchdown is bonkers on 105 targets. That's not going to happen again. He had 66 catches for 1,018 yards in 16 games, even if his season's over.

That is arguably the best tight end season since, was it Ditka? Ditka. Ditka. It is the best in terms of yards. It's just an outrageously good season for a tight end. 105 targets, 118 yards as a tight end, as a rookie, as a 20, a guy who was 20, I believe, when the season started. That's impossible.

He should still be a first-round pick in Dynasty, should still be, like, he's arguably the best we've ever seen at his, the best we've ever seen at his age, for sure. All right, we're going to take a break on fantasy football've ever seen at his age, for sure. All right, we're going to take a break on fantasy football today. When we come back, we're going to have the Cooper cup discussion. Where does he rank among wide receivers in 2022?

We'll, we'll be right back. Cooper cup, 16 games, 1,829 yards, 15 touchdowns in full PPR leagues. He is averaging exactly as many fantasy points per game as Devontae Adams did last year.

25.7 PPR fantasy points per game. Such different routes to get there, though. Pun intended, I guess so. Devontae Adams, he played 14 games last year, but his 16-game pace was 1,570 yards. Cup, 1,829, so he blew him away there. Adams was on pace for 21 touchdowns, and Cup has 15 touchdowns,

and that's everything per 16 games. Two years ago, Michael Thomas had 149 catches on 185 targets. Cup has basically the same amount of targets and 11 fewer catches. He does have about 100 more yards and six more touchdowns than Michael Thomas. An incredible year.

I would say it came out of nowhere. This is much better than anything we've ever seen. Jacob, I asked on Twitter where would you all rank Cooper Cup? I think most people would say behind Adams if Rodgers is back. That seems to be the consensus or close to it.

And then it's Cup, Jefferson, Chase, Tyreek Hill, and some other. But I think he's falling two or three for most people. How about you? Yeah, I mean, if Rodgers has gone, he's a clear Rodgers number one. And I think you can make a case for him over Adams, honestly. I tend to agree. I mean mean it did come out of nowhere and so i guess maybe it's not quite as trustworthy as like what we saw from adams where you had a long you know history of him building up to this point of dominance um but also i mean it's a new environment you know stafford there um so i think it's it's possible that this is just the new normal for him. Maybe not, you know, such inflated numbers,

but I think if he did it with consistency all year in terms of the rate that he was drawing targets at, and I think it's entirely possible that it continues. I think I'm really curious. So I think Justin Jefferson is someone who could possibly eclipse in my rankings, depending on what the offseason looks like for Minnesota and for L.A. And then another one that I know no one is going to put up there because he didn't have nearly as good of a season is A.J. Brown. The per-route rates for A.J. Brown this year are just bonkers.

They're just silly. His target per-route run rate is identical to cooper cup he's tied with cup with the highest in the nfl um and like he wasn't quite as efficient as cup of course but like he has been one of the most efficient players in the nfl up to this point and i wouldn't expect him to be you know to see some regression from what we saw this year especially in the touchdown department um i don't know what could happen necessarily in Tennessee to make him, you know, to elevate him to that level, you know, but I think he's somebody that flies under the radar a little bit as well.

But yeah, for Cup, I think he's a clear top two guy and probably going to be the wide receiver one for me, I would guess, honestly. Chris, where'd you rank up? Ranking right now, I think Cup has to be number one, just with the uncertainty for Devonta Adams. He could be back in Green Bay, but it could be with Jordan Love playing quarterback. He wouldn't be the number one wide receiver there.

You look at someone just in the comments called us out for saying you look at as a prefix or you talk about as a prefix, and now I'm in my head so I won't say that really Devonta Adams is a player who he's basically done this for four seasons that's the big edge that he has on Cooper Cup is he's had a similar upside as a fantasy player but we're talking about now we are talking about out it's in my head 21.8 ppr points per game in 2018 17.7 in 2019 but that was five touchdowns in 12 games we know that's an outlier 25.7 in 2020 and then 22.2 in 2021 i think he's either the best or the second best wide receiver in fantasy devontaonta Adams is. And the argument for him ahead of Cup would be,

if he's back, if Rodgers is back, the track record's so much better, and the upside for Cup is not much higher, if it is at all. It's an easy call for me if Rodgers is back. Adams is one. I think, yeah, I think it's... I'm not even going to overthink it. Cup has been so much better this year. Yeah, he has, but...

The targets per game are actually pretty close. How much better has he been? Cup has him by a little bit, but... Yeah, he's been better. Adams has 162 in 15 games. Cup has 184 in 16. So the targets per game are pretty close. He's been three and a half points better in PPR than Adams. That's

incredible. But, you know, I don't know who to compare Cooper Cup to. I think Stefan Diggs is a pretty decent comparison, right? Well, a big part of it is... This season for Cup is last season for Diggs. New quarterback, granted new team, whatever,

but just always a guy who had been very good, but took it to this completely bonkers level and fell back down to earth uh in 2022 2021 for dig so i i just can't get past the track record of adams the thing yeah and then i i guess the the way to put it is cooper cub's going to regress from this almost almost certainly. It's doing this for two seasons in a row, like 25 points per game for a running back is really hard. For a wide receiver, you don't really see that at all. Doing it two years in a row, I would guess nobody's ever done it.

Yeah, you're probably right. And so we know what Devontae Adams' regression looks like, and it's still arguably the best fantasy wide receiver in most seasons. We don't know what Cupps looks like. That's the biggest argument, I think, for Adams. It's just there's an unknown quantity with Cupp. But there's no case to be made for anyone else.

There's no case to be made for Jefferson or Jamar Chase or Tyreek Hill. I mean, Tyreek Hill is still the number one option for the best quarterback in football on an offense that's going to throw the ball a ton, you know? Yeah, I just, I think we saw something close to the ceiling last season, and obviously it was awesome, 22 points per game.

But, I mean, is it possible that he can replicate his career efficiency on the volume he's had this season? Who, Hill? That's kind of the question, yeah. Well, but I think that's... replicate his career efficiency on the volume he's had this season? Who, him? That's kind of the question, yeah. Because his volume's way up. I think it's more about what do we expect from Cup next year? You know, I just, I really, I'm just amazed at the year he had. And let me also tell you, this is crazy, right?

So he did not set the yardage record. He could set it next week, but, you know, it'll have an asterisk because Calvin Johnson did it. And Calvin Johnson had more than 100 yards than Cup, I think, in the same amount of games. But Calvin Johnson in 2012 had 1,964 yards and Cup has 1,829. Cooper Cup has had fewer than 92 yards

in one game. That is incredible. 92 or more yards in one game. That is incredible. 92 or more yards in every game except for one. Calvin Johnson had five games that season with fewer, no, six games with fewer than 92 yards. He had five games with fewer than 52 yards. He had a 329-yard game, but still, you didn't see any bad, one bad game all year from Cooper Cup.

I cannot express how impressive that is. You want to compare it to Michael Thomas the year before that. Michael, or, yeah, I don't know. It's somewhere lost in my notes, but it just, it does not happen. Oh, he had five games with fewer than 92 yards, and

three games with 37 to 54 yards. So that happened one time to Cooper Cup this year. It's staggering. And that's why I just can't see him coming close to replicating this. I just can't. So I think he's probably going to get overdrafted. And I don't really have much else to say. I just think maybe I don't have a great reason for it other than I've seen football,

and it's really hard to repeat. And if you draft him in the first round expecting him to repeat, I think you're going to be disappointed. Can I just, since you brought up that Calvin Johnson season, can I just share the crazy stat about it? Yeah. He had, I believe he had five touchdowns that season, right? Yes, on 204 targets, 204 targets, 101,000,

964 yards, 122 catches. He was tackled inside of the five yard line. Eight times that season tackled inside of the 10, 11 times. That is just bananas. Yeah. Five touch shots.

That's wild. All right. So he's going to be a top four guy for sure. He'll be top he'll be number one for a lot of people and we'll be talking about him for the next nine months it'll be great uh from demoralizer in dynasty who are some must sell players get something for them before you can't chris anyone come to mind so i think the first one would be like hunter renfro and amon rest st brown those types of players where we just think they ended the season playing over their heads you know we we talked

about on fantasy football today on hq on monday about whether hunter renfro is a top 25 dynasty wide receiver i think he's in that range but i also think this is probably the best it's ever going to get for him and so you should probably try to sell him and um i would also just say like damien harris i don't know how much you'll be able to get for him but he's tied for second in the nfl and carries he's still young but pretty clear that he's not the number one guy and i think you know maybe he gets traded somewhere where he can be but more likely than not is he's just going to either be in a frustrating split next season or it's bill belichick where madre stevenson could just push damien harris to the bench and he could get eight inactives next year um so he's one and jo Mixon. I,

this was a weird season for Joe Mixon. I mean, the production was finally there, but the, the target, the, the passing game role was still pretty frustrating, pretty like very inconsistent. He had seven catches yesterday.

It was kind of almost without rhyme or reason. His passing game role. He had last three games before the most. The last two, he had 7-6, then 1-2-0, and then 4-0. No reason. I don't know if Joe Mixon, can you rely on him to score 16 touchdowns again next season? What category are you putting him in? You're putting him in the get something while you can category?

Oh, sorry, sorry, sorry. Not get something while you can.. Oh, sorry, sorry, sorry, sorry. Not get something while you can. Okay. I misunderstood the question. Damien Harris, Amon Ross, St. Brown, Hunter Renfro, I think all qualify for that one. I'm so sorry, Adam.

Well, I don't want people to say Chris Tower. Maybe Ezekiel Elliott. I don't know if people actually value him at this point. He might have more value to keep than to trade. Here's one for you guys. Who do you think has more dynasty value, Ezekiel Elliott or Tony Pollard? Pollard would get more in a trade, I think. He shouldn't. It should definitely be Zeke, but it might not be, honestly.

He might not have a higher perceived value, which is nuts. I don't know if Pollard's ever going to get his chance. Well, Pollard's under contract for next year, so he's going to be a backup again. Then he'll be a 26-year-old free agent at running back without having proven that he can be an every-down guy. Yeah, the chances of him being a consistent fantasy starter at any point in his career i think are pretty slim barring an elliot injury next season

jacob any players that you'd look to sell get something for them before you can't in dynasty um yeah harris made my list as well um i think both atlanta guys russell gage and cordero patterson like played really well this year um and it's it's possibly my bill to get something um whereas like this time next year, that might be worth absolutely nothing. Um, James Connor is someone I would throw in there for sure. Um, Dawson Knox, I just don't really believe in what we saw at all. Um, that's a good one. He ran a ton of routes this year. So, which is like a good thing for tight ends. I, I up these per-route rates. They can be a little misleading for tight ends,

so I don't want to overreact to the fact that his per-route rates were way down in year three, but they were. I don't know. I don't think it's possible for him to like – I think we've seen the best we're going to see from Dawson Knox, and he's young, and he's attached to a good offense, so he might be valued really high by somebody in your league. I think he's a tight end five right now right it's not I don't think he made my top 10 for 2022 yeah he would make mine the way you accumulated those points

were pretty what was that oh yeah go ahead no I mean we've probably said before I'm just saying the way you accumulate the points is just not very repeatable. Yeah, right. He'll have some good games. He's playing with a great quarterback and a great offense, and they throw a lot of touchdowns. But he's not useless. True Robert Tunyon. No, I don't think he's Robert Tunyon. I don't think. No, Robert Tunyon was better.

No, Robert Tunyon caught a lot of touchdowns. I think he's a different player than Robert Tunyon. Robert Tunyon, to me, I think Knox has more versatility than Tunyon personally. Yeah, I think Knox will be okay, but it's not a commodity that you need to hang on to in Dynasty by any means. And then I have three receivers that I don't feel great about

because I'm not convinced that these guys aren't good. They could be good, but we haven't really seen for sure that they are, and I think that there's a perception around them that they're decent. They're decent young receivers that had decent years this year and could continue to play well in larger roles. The first one is Van Jefferson, and the second one is Gabriel Davis, and those two kind of parallel each other in that they're attached to good offenses.

They're young. They're deep threats, but their per route rates have not been encouraging through the first two years um and we don't really know that they're going to have consistent playing time going forward um they could um but i think you could possibly sell those guys based off what we've seen from them in the mid to late season um and i think it's entirely possible that a year from now they really aren't gonna be worth anything um and then the other one's marquez calloway who who probably is not going to be worth as much as those guys. But he's actually had a decent year kind of quietly, given how bad the situation was.

But I don't really know if I believe in it. And then you've got to throw in receivers in their 30s, especially ones who have started showing injury-related decline, like Adam Thielen last year would have been a good time to sell him. So I think DeAndre Hopkins is the obvious one there. I got one for you. In Dynasty specifically, I would say Amari Cooper is still quite young, but not a lot moving in the right direction for him.

If you're assuming CeeDee Lamb is going to take a big jump at some point, that's going to cost Amari cooper probably and um tyler lockett i mean the we actually haven't seen many signs of decline for tyler lockett he had arguably uh one of the most efficient seasons by a receiver uh in the nfl 1077 yards on 102 targets with six touchdowns. It's really, really good. But he's getting up there in age. And Jacoby Myers. I just, if they add talent, and I think he's pretty good, but he's clearly just a guy also. If they add talent, it's going to come.

Like, he mostly matters for fantasy because of volume. So he's one guy I would be looking to sell. And I'm on the fence on this guy, but... Boy, I don't know what the future holds for Kenny Galladay. He has had such a bad year. 499 yards and no touchdowns. And he's very injury-prone now. It's just...

He's 28. And he's old. Does he have any value? I think so. I mean, I would take him in Dynasty or ahead of every wide receiver. Well, not everyone, because Chris mentioned some pretty high-end guys. But, you know, Marcus Calloway, Russell Gage, Gabriel Davis, I still would have Galladay ahead of them.

I think there's a lot of people who would rather have Gabriel Davis. I would, yeah. I would not, but Galladay was a legit number one, you know? I mean, even with David Blau at quarterback, he was putting up numbers. You want a controversial one? Yeah. What about Terry McLaurin?

No, I'm a 27. I'm a buy. I think he's good, but I have no reason to think that quarterback situation is going to be better in 2022. He's old ish for a guy who is perceived to be young. He'll be 27 by week two of next season. I just, yeah, I don't know.

I don't know if he's going to make that elite leap like we were hoping for. I think it makes some sense logically, but I'm too in love with Terry McLaurin to do it. I feel insane about the age. Also, hopefully Curtis Samuel will be healthy next year. I love him. I think his skill set is so good. I think the way Ron Rivera used him that last season in Carolina

could be hugely valuable if he could actually stay healthy. And he's like three years younger than Terry McLaurin and was clearly better than him in college. So just putting it out there. Putting it out therein and was clearly better than him in college. So just putting it out there, putting it out. He was clearly better than him in college. Yeah, they were different players.

McLaurin, I think was more like an 18 yard per catch guy, if I recall. So he probably didn't have as many catches, but I don't know. I think he was more of a big play guy. I don't really remember, but they were drafted pretty similarly, but I don't know. I think he was more of a big play guy. I don't really remember, but they were drafted pretty similarly.

So I don't know. I don't know. Weren't they? Maybe. So I don't know. McLaurin. 40th versus 76th. McLaurin is,

that's not that similar. But Samuel was two years ahead of him, despite being a year and a half younger. Yeah, I don't know. McLaurin, to me, seems like a much more legit number one receiver than Samuel. Look, I said it was controversial. It was.

That was your bold prediction going into the year. It never got to play out that Samuel would be better than McLaurin. And I guess you can just recycle it for next year. It's incomplete. All right. Give me two minutes can just recycle it for next year. It's incomplete. All right. Let me just get, give me two minutes on this last topic here from Adrian.

What have we learned this year that can be used in next year's draft? Jacob. I really didn't have much. I feel like we talked about this a few weeks ago. Yeah, people forget. Similar topic, yeah. They weren't listening a few weeks ago.

Yeah. Chris, do you have anything? Yeah, I'll just point out this was my first year doing rankings and projections and all that stuff. And obviously the rankings are heavily based on the projections. And this is something that our old friend Ben Gretsch has talked about a lot with regards to team volume is something that we tend to think is sort of static,

where teams will run a similar number of plays if their personnel and coaching staff are the same, and they'll have a similar run-pass split. But we know that a 9-7 team in the NFL can easily be 13-3 or 6-… Oh, man, now I'm talking about 16-game paces. I'm starting to get off track. But we know that it's hard to predict win totals from one year to the next, how a team's going to play, how often they're going to be in the lead,

all that stuff. And that all plays a big part in how often a team throws and runs and how many plays they run and all these things. And so tying my expectations less to that kind of stuff and having more room for a wider range of possibilities. And I think the Ravens are a good example of this with the passing game where yes, it took all their running backs getting hurt, but running backs get hurt. You know, that's the kind of thing where like, they're, they're not the only team that had that happen

this season that can happen to a team. And all of a sudden they're throwing a lot more than they ever have. so i think that kind of stuff just it's always useful to think in terms of probabilities and in terms of ranges rather than a single outcome when you're projecting and looking forward to the next season and that is uh that is one that i will be taking into account but i will say you never want to fight last year's battles. You don't want to overreact to the 2021 trend in the 2022 season. 2021 is not the only season that has happened. And oftentimes we can do the, well, this happened last year. So we have to react to it. Um, you'll see it with a really, really good rookie wide receiver classes where the next year rookie wide receivers will get drafted higher. You saw it with

rookie running backs coming off that Joe Mixon rookie class with Christian McCaffrey and a bunch of other guys that the next year got overdrafted because the previous year was so good. So just that that kind of stuff. I'll bring up what I brought up a few weeks ago when nobody

was paying attention. There are only two wide receivers currently in the top 12 who are on offenses that are not top 14 in scoring. So let's say top half. Minnesota's 14th, San Francisco's 13th. Obviously, you have two top five wide receivers there. But the only two wide receivers that are currently in the top 12 on offenses that are in the bottom half and scoring are, this is full PPR, number eight, Deontay Johnson. He will probably, he has a chance to be number seven by the end of the day.

And number 11, Hunter Renfro. And he is not a top 12 guy per game. So that is going to matter to me. I'm sure I will argue with a lot of people about that, but quality of offense matters a lot. That's how you get the difference between DJ Moore and, I don't know, and Keenan Allen.

You know, it's like, just bad quarterback play can really hurt these wide receivers. So it's going to be more specific. It's not like, well, I think they're going to have the 17th best offense, so I'm not going to get it. No, it's going to be the teams that I think are going to have a horrible quarterback. I'm just probably going to look for value or fade at wide receiver. And I'll throw out with, I mean, C. Land did take a step forward,

but obviously not nearly as much as many expected. He's 16 in points right now. Ended up being drafted as a top 12 wide receiver, I think. DK Metcalf, another good example. Progress doesn't always move as smoothly as we expect. It's not always linear. Sometimes guys take steps back before they take steps forward. So when you're looking at Jalen Waddell, who's 13th right now, probably top 12 per game. I don't have that pulled up. You want to say, well, Jalen Waddell, who's 13th right now, probably top 12 per game. I don't have that pulled up. You know, you want to say, well, Jalen Waddell is just going to be better next season. But if they have a different offensive coordinator, if they have a different quarterback, maybe he

doesn't get quite the volume of targets that he's gotten this season. So just keep in mind when it comes to young players that it's not always incremental. It's not always forward progress, you know, and it can be easy to get a little overexcited. Forward progress, I like that. Jalen Waddell is 14th per game, not counting Christian Wilkerson, who is 4th per game with four catches for 42 yards and two touchdowns in one game for the Patriots.

Who didn't see that coming? All right, we're out of here. Thanks, everybody. Enjoy Monday Night Football. Oh, I forgot to give this stat. Cool stat on Justin Herbert, who is playing on Sunday night against the Raiders. Winner is in the playoffs.

Daniel Popper of The Athletic tweeting, Justin Herbert in five career primetime games. Five games, 1,418 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, two interceptions, 65% completion rate, 132 yards, and two rushing touchdowns. 132 rushing yards and two touchdowns, two interceptions, 65% completion rate, 132 yards, and two rushing touchdowns. 132 rushing yards and two touchdowns. So expect a big game from Justin Herbert. For Chris, for Jacob, I'm Adam.

Have a great day. Talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football Today.