Fantasy Football Today - Five Big Topics! Our Top 12 for 2021 and Much More (12/28 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: December 28, 2020

We'll talk some football to start the show as we predict which teams will make the NFL playoffs, and then we turn our attention to Titans-Packers (7:03). What a performance from Davante Adams, and A.J. Dillon was no slouch! What happened to the Titans? And did we learn anything about what to expect in snowy conditions? ... We give our Top 12 players for 2021 (11:15). One of us has three TEs in the Top 12! Did D.K. Metcalf make the list? ... Do we want Aaron Jones to stay with GB or move to another team (25:30)? How many RBs in the "Dead Zone" ended up being good picks (28:00)? Are QBs worth drafting early in 2021 (34:10)? And how is the RB position looking for next season (37:50)? ... Email us at [e-mail] 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow the new FFT Twitch channel: https://www.twitch.tv/FFToday Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Want winning picks each morning in under 10 minutes? Subscribe to 'The Early Edge: A Daily SportsLine Betting Podcast' on Apple, Spotify, Stitcher or wherever else you listen to podcasts. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. I'll tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races.

Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben. Your Monday edition of Fantasy Football Today. It's an Adam, Chris, Jamie, Heath, and Ben. Your Monday edition of Fantasy Football today. It's an Adam, Chris, and Ben special. Really a special anymore? We do it every week. All right, but it's a special episode

because we get to look ahead to 2021 and give you our top 12 for the first time. Our full top 12 for 2021. Of course, you'll get that from Dave and Jamie and Heath in the weeks and months to come. But we'll get that going. We'll react to last night's game, the Snow Bowl, and much more. What's going on, Ben Schrager?

Good afternoon. Good afternoon. I had fun watching two Derrick Henrys last night, so that was good. That's a good call. I like that. Chris, big day for A.J. Dillon. Welcome to the NFL, A.J. Dillon. Yeah, it was good to see.

I didn't think there was much doubt that he could do that, so it was good to see him get that opportunity. And Jamal Williams is an impending free agent, correct? So is Aaron Jones, which is why I thought Aaron Jones is one of the most difficult players to rank. Top five running back two years in a row, but I doubt any of us have him in our top 12, right?

Anybody? He's my number 10, but from 10 to 15, it was a big mess. So Jones, it's just, he's a top five running back in terms of talent, but who knows where he'll be. He's leading the NFL in yards per game. Number 14 for me. Number 14, yeah. I think I have him lower than that, but, you know,

that's obviously everything very fluid. Ben and I were talking before the show started about how different things were when we did these rankings in January of 2020 and then, you know, that's, that's obviously everything very fluid. Ben and I were talking before the show started about how different things were when we did these rankings in January of 2020. And then, you know, or December of 2019 and how much they changed, of course, but it's just for fun at this point. So, uh, so let's get into that a little bit. First of all, we have some news and notes here. Um, Kyler Murray's got a lower leg injury, No word on how serious it is right now. Daryl Henderson, though, has a high ankle sprain, so he's not going to play in all likelihood in Week 17. And this is a huge game. Rams-Cardinals is a huge game, one of the biggest games on the slate. And Jared Goff had a dislocated thumb, may have broken it, so I don't think you should expect him to play at this point either.

Are we going to have two backup quarterbacks? I certainly hope not for a game that big. And basically that big. Um, and basically I thought the Rams had clinched a playoff spot. They have not, they are in with a win or a bears loss, but if they lose to the Cardinals and the bears beat the Packers, which probably won't happen since the Packers are playing for the one seed in that case, though, if the Bears win and the Rams lose, the Rams are out of the playoffs. Arizona clinches a playoff spot with a win. They need to win right now. Ronald Jones should play this week for Tampa Bay, and the Cleveland wide receivers are on track as long as they keep testing negative. They're on track to play against Pittsburgh in a huge game.

Washington released Dwayne Haskins, Ben. That is really incredible. Two years into his career, first-round pick. Some thought he was a franchise quarterback, but obviously we know the deal. Not everybody did, and they just released him. Wow.

Yeah, and the good thing for that is it doesn't seem to matter for Logan Thomas because any quarterback, no matter how bad or how conservative they are there, will feed Logan Thomas. So I don't know who it'll be next year, but if Logan Thomas because any quarterback, no matter how bad or how conservative they are there, will feed Logan Thomas. I don't know who it'll be next year, but if Logan Thomas is there, I think he's still a top 10 tight end. Terry McLaurin is... Try top

five, Ben. Yeah, Ben. Terry McLaurin is believed to have a high ankle sprain and he may not play in week 17. Frank Gore is going to be out this week, so you might get LaMichael Pirine at New England. We've seen them kind of mix it up when Gore's been out. Jakeem Grant has a high ankle sprain.

He won't play at Buffalo. Deshaun Watson hurt his hand, but he will play, and Christian McCaffrey unlikely to play this week. So who do you guys think is going to make the playoffs? Who's going to miss the playoffs out of Tennessee, Indianapolis, Dolphins, Ravens, Browns? One of them is going to be out. Who's it going to be?

I think the Colts don't make it. Yeah, I mean, they definitely need the most to go right for them. Well, they're going to win. They're playing Jacksonville. I mean, look. And then they just need one other team to lose. We've made a lot of assumptions about which teams were going to lock up which playoff spots

based on their matchups against which bad teams. So let's not look. If the Jets can win two games in a row, the Jaguars can win one. Be interesting to go back to Minshew now that they locked up the one seed when he's clearly been their best quarterback. I think the Dolphins are going

to lose. I'm going to miss out. I think the Colts are going to win and the Dolphins are going to lose. The question is, will the Browns beat the Steelers? Who is ahead right now? The Dolphins or the Browns?

The Dolphins are. Here's the deal. Baltimore is going are. Okay. So, all right. So here's the deal. Baltimore is going to beat Cincinnati, right? They're going to, we have to at least assume that Baltimore is going to make it. Uh,

the dolphins are currently the five seed. Tennessee is the four seed because they're winning the division. They also have the tiebreaker over the dolphins. Um, but Tennessee. Okay. So, so if Cleveland loses to Pittsburgh

and the Dolphins lose, the Dolphins still get in. I think that's the Dolphins' best hope. Here's how it works for the Dolphins. If they win, they're in. Yeah. If Baltimore, Cleveland, or Indianapolis loses, they're in.

Right, but I'm going to go into this week assuming that Baltimore is going to beat Cincinnati and Indianapolis is going to beat Jacksonville. I'm just going to assume that. There's no way the Steelers can lose to the Bengals. I've been saying it for weeks. I'm just saying, Chris. If I'm asking you who's going to be Jacksonville. I'm just going to assume there's no way the Steelers can lose to the Bengals. I've been saying it for weeks. I'm just saying, Chris,

like if I'm asking you, who's going to make the playoffs, I assume Baltimore is beating the Cincinnati and Indianapolis is being Jacksonville. That's my assumption. So with that said, it probably comes down to Miami and Cleveland and Cleveland gets Pittsburgh at home and Miami's at Buffalo.

And we will see what happens. How about the NFC East? Who's going to win the NFC East? The Cowboys are going to win it and win the first game of the playoffs. Okay. Um, yeah, I think the Cowboys are probably going to win it.

I think Washington is going to be Philadelphia. I think Philadelphia, I can't imagine they're going to have Fletcher Cox, and their defense sucks without him. So I think Washington will end up winning that game. But I do think Dallas is probably going to beat the Giants. Washington, Philadelphia is now flexed to 8 p.m. on Sunday night. And the last spot will be Chicago, the Rams, and the Cardinals.

Two of them are going to get in. I'd have to think that the Bears are going to lose. The question is, will the Cardinals beat the Rams without Jared Goff? You've got to think if Kyler plays and Goff doesn't, we've got to give that to the Cardinals, right? That's the Cardinals, exactly. Probably, yeah. So the Bears are not in a great situation here. All right. But the Packers are, if the Packers win, they get the one seed. They

beat Tennessee last night, 40 to 14. It just seems like they know how to play in these horrible conditions. The Titans just didn't look right. Philosophy question here. Like, did we learn anything about weather this year, Ben, about how to approach bad weather games? Not really. Last night, there was wind, which mattered, but some quarterbacks can play in wind that matters and others can't. And it's something where I think going in,

we would have said Aaron Rodgers can succeed in bad weather. You know what? Baker Mayfield and Derek Carr cannot succeed in bad weather. So you look back at some of the games that Browns played where their game script completely changed. You look at Aaron Rodgers, you look at the Packers, they're probably going to still throw and be

efficient and succeed. But in games where it's pretty bad quarterbacks, bad passing attacks, and high wind, you're going to want to avoid it. Yeah, I trust the Packers to play in these kind of conditions more than most teams, I guess. Yeah, I think with last night

with the Titans was less about the weather and more about them just kind of having to go away from their game plan. You know, the Derrick Henry didn't break off any big runs. That's a big part of their offense. And when they're forced into passing, I think it just it kind of puts them in're forced into passing, I think it just, it, it kind

of puts them in a bad situation. So I, I think it was not as much the weather there. Well, maybe not offensively, but defensively, they look like they were on ice skates. You know, they just, they were like sliding around. It couldn't cover anyone and they couldn't get any pressure. Snow and rain, as long as it's not windy, should help the offense because the offense knows where they're going. The defense is trying to react on a slippery field. And so if that, and that doesn't happen all that often,

but there are occasions where you see a really snowy field, a really muddy field, and the offense actually looks okay. And that's because the defense is trying to react. And if you have worse footing, it's going to make that harder. Assuming like Lamar Jackson in the second half of that Monday night game, you put on the right cleats. Yeah, there you go. Exactly. But Devontae Adams finishes with a bang.

And we'll see what he has in store against Chicago, but three touchdowns. He has 17 touchdown catches this year. It's unbelievable. He is now in PPR despite playing two fewer games than Tyreek Hill. He has scored more PPR fantasy points than Tyreek Hill, not non-PPR, but very close. And he was great. Rogers was great.

Aaron Jones really wasn't. He did have 108 total yards, but not only 12 touches. It was an AJ Dillon game and it was encouraging. And I think Aaron Jones is dealing with a toe issue right now. So we'll see what they do with him in week 17. Any other takeaways, Chris, from this game, AJ Brown and Corey Davis, it's the passing offense was so bad. The Titans were bad, put it that way. Yeah, Titans were bad. I do want to just, here are Devonta Adams numbers over his last 16 games, including the last game of 2019 and the two playoff games. He has 133 catches, 1,719 yards. Oh my gosh. And 20 touchdowns. Amazing. That's his last 16 games.

This is one of the best stretches we've ever seen from a wide receiver. And boy, you know, he's got an old quarterback. He's getting up in age himself. He'll be, you know, 28, I guess, all of next season, which isn't that old. So I don't think that's that much of an issue. But he's probably not going to repeat this. But we kind of didn't expect him to keep last year's late season pace up. And he's done that. He's averaging three more PPR points per game this year than Michael Thomas did last year.

That's an amazing number. Michael Thomas was so good last year, but Adams, it's the touchdowns, really. Thomas caught nine touchdowns last year, and Adams has 17 in 13 games. Incredible. Okay, let's go to our five big topics. Let's start with our 2021 top 12.

Ben, I understand we have some similarities, you and I, in our top 12s. Yeah, I don't know how to feel about this. But yeah, our top eight is exactly the same. I did send my email over to you first. So, you know. No, no, no. I came up with those yesterday.

Jamie gave me a hard deadline of Sunday night. I was even referencing them on the show, Ben. So obviously you got into my head and you stole my top eight. I definitely did. But the show, Ben. So obviously, you got into my head and you stole my top eight. I definitely did. But the top eight that I'm referencing, McCaffrey, Kamara, Cook, Henry. So four running backs to start. Adams, Kelsey, Tyreek Hill, and Saquon Barkley.

And finish off that first round with Ezekiel Elliott, DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Thomas, and Jonathan Taylor. All right. So we have to go through those names again. So I know it's a lot of names for people out there, but this is a full PPR top 12. And for me and Ben, it's McCaffrey 1, Kamara 2, Cook 3, Derrick Henry 4,

Devante Adams 5, Kelsey 6, Tyreek Hill 7, and Saquon Barkley 8. That's our top 8. I guess why don't we just do a top eight then? Uh, Chris, what's your top eight? Well, we'll do a top 12, but why don't we start with the top eight? Chris, what's your top eight? Yeah, my top eight is different. Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Saquon Barkley, Dalvin Cook, Austin Eckler, Ezekiel Elliott, Travis Kelsey and Devante Adams. Oh my goodness. That is really different. First of all, Saquon three.

Who was four? Dalvin. Dalvin four. Okay. Eckler. Eckler five. Eckler is in my top. I'm going to be the high guy on Elliott.

I know that for sure. Eckler's nine for me. He's played eight healthy games. He left one game really early. So if you take that out, he's on pace for 1,736 total yards plus 94 catches, but only four touchdowns. So it's actually a very, very good case for Austin Eckler.

The touchdowns are extremely low, but you're talking 1,700 plus total yards and 94 catches. That's what he's on pace for. That's a guy who probably deserves in a PPR league a top five pick. All right. So after Eckler was five, Zeke was six? Zeke was six.

And then what? Travis Kelsey and Devonta Adams. Okay. No Derek Henry. Look, he's 10. Okay. The gap between number... No Derrick Henry. Look, he's 10. The gap between number 10 and number 22 is basically non-existent. So I think there's kind of a clear top tier.

And then Derrick Henry's right there. And look, it's... I get it. We're going to... Oh, everybody's going to look stupid again on Derek Henry. But I guess... So he's on pace for 2,100 yards this season. Rushing or total? Total. Okay.

And 20 touchdowns, I believe. Going into last night, it's probably a little bit lower. But 2,000 total yards and 19 touchdowns is his current pace. It's a ridiculously good season. Ezekiel Elliott in 2019 averaged less than a fantasy point per game, less than what Derrick Henry is doing right now. On like, I think it was 1,700 all-purpose yards and 14 touchdowns. If you don't, if you're playing PPR,

and this obviously only goes for PPL, if you play PPR, the fact that he only catches, is this going to be a career high of like 15 for him this year? No, I think he had 19 last year. It's really hard to get away from the math on this. Like, it's just... It's touchdowns, though. Touchdowns, yeah.

Right, but when you're talking about Ezekiel Elliott, you're talking about a guy who's had multiple double-digit touchdown seasons. You're talking about Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook. Dalvin Cook has 17. Alvin Kamara has 19. And so, yes, Derrick Henry's amazing. And look, this is all a repeat of what we said last year, or what I'm sure Gretchen Heath said last year for sure. And it's been proven wrong. And, you know, that happens. If I'm proven wrong again, so be it. I've been hammering this point home. There have been two running backs in the last five years

that have finished as top five running backs going into this year with fewer than 49 catches. They were Derrick Henry last year and Ezekiel Elliott, I think, three years ago. It's almost impossible to do unless you get 300-plus carries and a ton of touchdowns, which is what Derrick Henry has done two straight years. The best argument for you, Chris, Zeke over Henry, was just

look at the first five games of the year when Dak Prescott was healthy. Zeke Elliott was on pace for about 1,700 total yards, so about 300 fewer, a little bit more than that than Henry, but 19 touchdowns and 77 catches. So he probably outscores him there. Here, tell me if I'm being too low on Derek Henry. I have

him projected for 1,400 rushing yards and 14 total touchdowns and 17 catches for 160 yards. Am I being low on, am I too low on Derek Henry when you look at that stat? Like, should I project him for 1500 rushing yards or 1600 rushing yards like this is the hard thing about it is just once you actually start doing the math he needs he doesn't just need to be the best runner in football he needs to be so far better than everyone else and it's really really hard to do that unless he scores a lot of touchdowns. Sure. But that still comes from the rushing game.

He's not going to get receiving touchdowns. He's not going to have five receiving touchdowns like Christian McCaffrey or Alvin Kamarick. Well, or Mike. I think 1,400 feels a little low considering he's smashed that two years in a row. Maybe. He's got, I don't know, 31 rushing touchdowns in his last 30 games.

So I would say he's going to, he's like a lock to score at least 12 if he plays a full season. Right, I gave him 14 touchdowns in his last 30 games. So I would say he's like a lock to score at least 12 if he plays a full season. Right, I gave him 14 touchdowns. That's an absurdly high projection. That's a lot. No, I mean, Ben, what do you think? Because I think people feel like Ezekiel Elliott is not the same guy he used to be.

And I would agree with that sentiment. But what do you think, Ben? I feel the same way. I have Zeke at RB6. So yes, it's much higher than he has been in the second half of the season, but I think Henry is a lock for 14 plus touchdowns and over 1400 yards, um, in terms of Chris's projection, but Zeke, there's just a lot of question marks. We assume the O line will be healthy. We assume Dak will be back. I don't know if either one of those will be true next year.

And I don't think he looked great this year without either one of those things. So those are the only question marks. But he's still a surefire first rounder. And I could easily see him moving ahead of Saquon Barkley in my rankings if Saquon's rehab goes a little slower than expected. Okay, Saquon at number three for Chris and number eight for Ben and Adam here Batum at bet Adam at and yeah Batum is probably Benham I don't know um yeah that was uh that was surprising Chris yeah yeah and I again it's just if he gets the the kind of receiving workload that

we think he probably will. I know he's coming back from a torn ACL. That's the biggest question. But assuming he's okay, he's probably a lock for close to 70 catches. That's really, really good. I mean, the way they've used him in his career so far, it's not quite Alvin Kamara or Christian McCaffrey level workload, but it's a quite Alvin Camara or Christian McCaffrey level workload, but it's, it's a

ton of receptions. And so he's the kind of guy who you're probably looking at 250 plus touches. You're probably looking at 70 plus catches. It's really hard not to be a top five running back. If you get that, I, I have questions about the giants offense, but I hope it will be better next season. Um, and yeah, I'm just part of it is I'm just assuming health. And that's going to be a thing that when you're doing projections

like I am, and I'm kind of barring Heath's process and doing my own things with it. But when you're doing that, I can't project Saquon Barkley to play 12 games. You kind of have to just project as if he's healthy and then adjust the rankings from there. But given the way most people come back from ACL injuries, I don't think it's really, I haven't discounted him as a talent. Dalvin cook.

I would say took a year, right? When his first year back from the AC, am I wrong? Am I thinking of, took a year, right? When his first year back from the ACL. Am I wrong? Am I thinking of? He had the hamstring issue. I think his first year back from the ACL was like, okay. It was good.

It wasn't great. The second year back, he was last year, and he was amazing. All right. So let's get back to the top 12. So for me and Ben, McCaffrey, Kamara, Cook, Henry, Adams, Kelsey, Tyreek Hill, Saquon Barkley. How did you finish your top 12 Ben? After Barkley,

Ezekiel, Elliot Hopkins, Michael Thomas with a big asterisk and Jonathan Taylor Thomas. I do not want to have Taysom Hill quarterback. All right. So you went with Zeke Hopkins, who was Thomas Taylor. Okay, I have three of the four same.

No, I don't. I have two of the four. I have Eckler nine, Taylor 10, Hopkins 11, and I have Metcalf 12. And I currently have Zeke 14. So we both have Taylor. We have 10 of the same top 12. Taylor and Hopkins made it.

You don't have Eckler in your top 12. Where is he close behind? He is 14. So right behind. And that's where I have a Zeke. And yeah, I've met calf 12, but you could put any risk.

You could put met calf. You could put digs. You could put Michael Thomas, Calvin Ridley. You could put a lot of wide receivers. Third, I guess, because I have Adams,

you know, fourth. Adams, Hill, Hopkins is my top three. But, of course, room for negotiation. Chris, give me the rest of your top 12. All right. You ready for it? Yeah. Okay.

Are you ready for it? Yes. George Kittle at number nine. Derrick Henry at number 10. James Robinson at number 11. And Darren Waller at number 12. I don't think you can overstate the extent to which having an elite tight end at this point gives you an edge. If you just base it on the amount of points that you should think Darren

Waller, even Darren Waller, even Darren Waller, who's the lowest of the three, should outscore the number 12 tight end by, it's right around 95 points in my projection. If you look at running back, I have Christian McCaffrey way ahead of everyone. I think he's in a tier of his own. But if you look at Kamara, he's projected,

if you go 95 points down from where Alvin Kamara's projected, you get to RB23. It's just the edge that those three guys, assuming Kittle is healthy and he sure looked in his first game back, I think it's the biggest edge you can have in fantasy sports. Yeah, you better hope they there is good next year though. Cause if you're using a first round pick on Darren Waller,

who you, you were saying like he wasn't really having that great of a year. It was really not until that jets game, his first 11 games, he was on pace for 788 yards. He was at 8.5 yards per catch. He's his last four games have been like, wow.

Unbelievable. His first 11 games were scoring a lot of touchdowns, but wasn't really that great. Right, but he's done it two years in a row now. Like, we're going to have two years of 1,100-plus yards, 90-plus catches. Yeah. Like, we can be skeptical all we want,

but at some point it's just this guy wasn't drafted high and we didn't know who he was before last year. And I just, I don't think that's the right mindset. Could he disappoint? Sure. But we thought he was going to disappoint this year. Could George Kittle disappoint? Could he have a lower usage with both Debo and Brandon Ayuk there? It's certainly possible. But what we've seen when George Kittle has played with either of those guys is George Kittle is still George Kittle, and those other guys get smaller roles. And I actually have Ayuk and Debo ranked much lower than I expected to

or necessarily want to, and it's just because it makes a lot of sense to throw the ball to George Kittle. He is so freaking good. He's skronk, though. He scares me because he's so injury prone. He's so physical, and I don't think I could spend a first-round pick on him, quite honestly.

But if you could guarantee me 16 games, I would. Ben, where are you taking the tight ends? I have Kittle and Waller both in my end of second round just because there are so many running backs and wide receivers who I have who could end up in the top three like my running backs after Jonathan Taylor James Robinson Austin Eckler Nick Chubb Aaron Jones Miles Sanders Antonio Gibson all of them could be top five running backs Gibson might need to catch a few more passes but wide receiver you mentioned him

before Ridley DK Metcalf Diggs Julio Jones A a Rob all these guys could be top three and I don't think Waller provides the edge and I think Kittle's health is scary I'll take them all at the end of the second round though okay did you know that across Ontario utility damage happens 19 times a day that's over 4,222 incidents a year don't let your next dig be one that causes costly delays or safety risks. Before you break ground, make it a point to request a locate. It's not just the law. It's a step to keep your team and community safe. Visit OntarioOneCall.ca and avoid unnecessary damages to get the job done right. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. All right, our second big topic is from Joe.

I know he was banged up last night, and Rodgers and Adams have been on fire, but it seems like the Packers never really unleashed Aaron Jones this season. Last year's 16-touchdown performance wasn't a fluke. Maybe Aaron Jones goes somewhere else next year and is elite again. Well, Joe, I would say he was elite this year. He's currently the number five running back, but you are right. He is leading the NFL, leading all running backs anyway,

5.6 yards per carry. I think he's proven himself at this point as a truly great running back, but they haven't unleashed him. They don't give him a ton of work. He's got 190 carries in 13 games. He's on pace for, I don like a... He's on pace for... I don't know what he's on pace for. 250? I don't know.

No, probably not even that much in terms of carries. But yeah, you're right. It's right around last year. A little below last year would be like 233 or something. 233. So, yeah. Do we want Aaron Jones to go somewhere else? Because you got to admit, it's a pretty good setup in Green Bay.

A good offensive line, amazing quarterback, good passing game, a lot of touchdowns. Do we want Ben Aaron Jones somewhere else, or do we want him in Green Bay where A.J. Dillon's knocking on the door? I'm fine with him in Green Bay. There are not a ton of other places I think he can go and have that touchdown upside where he regressed for touchdowns this year and he still had 10 total touchdowns and over average over a hundred yards per game.

I think AJ Dillon is good, but Jamal Williams is also good. So I think if AJ Dillon's there, they'll split. But if you guarantee me 10 plus touches from Aaron Jones, like he had in every game this year, I still love him. And he's still 10 plus.

We need a little more than that at least 12 in every game at least 14 in all but 2 yeah he had 15 plus carries in all but 4 games if we can guarantee like 280 270 touches for a season

that probably gets you 12 touchdowns we saw the high end of the variance last year with the touchdowns. He's scored 19 touchdowns. He wasn't going to do that again. But like Ben said, he has 10 this year. The regression season is still top five in both points per game and total points. It's hard to complain too much about what he does. The number five running back this year per game

is Jones at 18.5 points per game PPR. Last year, the number five running back was Zeke. 19.7. 19.7. What did I say Jones was? 18.5?

He would have been number 8 last year. Yeah. Definitely a better eight last year. Yeah. Definitely a better year last year for running backs. Okay. Um, topic number three from your pal, Al,

which running backs from the running back dead zone were actually worth their ADP. What exact, what do you remember the exact parameters of the dead zone? It's, I think it's like round three to round nine oh okay i only did rounds three through six i looked at rounds three through six and in rounds three through six you had one two three basically three, basically,

no, you had a lot. It's not great. Well, you didn't have a lot until round six, and that's when, it's so hard. Okay, here's the problem. How do you assess Cam Akers, DeAndre Swift? I don't think Cam Akers, for sure, was not a hit. Was DeAndre Swift?

DeAndre Swift, I think, was a hit. Not a huge one, but but yeah but Cam Akers did you get a good game out of him as a starter yes one week 14 the New England game would be the only one right but that was he wasn't necessarily right he wasn't

necessarily a starter I don't think Cam like yeah you look at okay he was a miss you're right and that's actually it's interesting and going through I don't think Cam, like, yeah, you look at, okay, he was a miss. You're right. And that's actually, it's interesting. And going through, you know, projections and rankings, I have five wide receivers in my top 30, which is a really low number. It's weird. Yeah.

But then I only have five running backs between 31 and 60. And yeah. Looks like I know how I'm drafted next year and so i i think that's how i drafted last year you know i i want ideally an elite tight end an elite running back and then just a bunch of wide receivers from that round three through seven or out eight range and then you know that's when you look for you know after that I think is when you start looking for those high-end running backs you won't feel great about it on draft day having a number two running back you can't rely on but if you want to go to running backs with your first

three picks I think it'll make sense um I I that's that's I think where it is because that second tier of wide receivers starting really with like, I guess Terry McClure and Allen Robinson, Keenan Allen in my rankings, they there's just so many guys who can produce somewhat similarly to them. All right. Let's take a look at the running backs who did live up to their ADP from rounds three through six.

Well, let's take a look at all of them in ADP. Todd Gurley stunk. Chris Carson was great when he played. James Conner started out great, but no. Melvin Gordon was interesting. He finished his RB24, I believe, per game. Yeah, RB24 in half PPR.

Jonathan Taylor is a win. Le'Veon Bell, no. Leonard Fournette, no. Mark Ingram, no. David Johnson, yes. Mostert right now looks like a no, but that's really tough because Mostert looked like he...

I would say he really looked like a good pick. He was fantastic until the end of the season. Singletary, no. Akers, no. Swift, yeah, I guess so. Montgomery, it took a while, but yes. And then Kareem Hunt, yeah.

Can't argue with that. So Carson, Taylor, David Johnson, kind of Mostert, kind of Swift, Montgomery and Hunt were the good ones. And even like Johnson, kind of swift Montgomery and Hunt were the good ones yeah and even like Johnson

yeah he was fine he had a couple of big games but you know you probably didn't bench him all that often but you know he wasn't great he was just kind of a like he'll get you 10 PPR points yeah he was like a replacement level starting running back. Yeah, per game, he's RB17. However, he did leave one game super early with an injury.

So he's probably a little better than that. I can't blame anyone for drafting Connor, even if they took him in the second round. He got his opportunity. He started out the year looking like a steal, even as a top 24 pick. He looked like he was a first round pick kind of player. He got hurt.

Stewart's O-line got beat up, and he stunk. But I can't really blame anyone. Gurley, I didn't have any Gurley. There were some guys where it just seemed like their careers were ending. Gurley was one of them. Le'Veon Bell was one of them. Ingram, I think it was easy to see the regression coming. Four net as well in that boat, despite the trade.

Yeah, he... I don't know how much of that ADP was... Jacksonville, when it looked like he was still going to get a million touches, and then how much was with Tampa. It felt like he still ended up in the fifth or sixth round range once he got to Tampa, because there was a lot of... I think the default assumption was that he was going to be the lead back. Yeah.

Fooled you. It's been... Yeah, it was an especially bad year for the second tier or third tier, however you want to define it, running backs. And I think there's... You don't want to overlearn that lesson, but I think it probably will hold over. Just when you look at the group of players, it's like there's like 20-ish running backs that you feel pretty good about heading into next season.

And then after that, it's old guys or guys like Connor or Ronald Jones or David Johnson or Kenyon Drake where we just don't know quite what the role is going to be. So, yeah, I think it's going to be very similar next year. All right, question from Chris Himes. Next big topic. Are quarterbacks and tight ends worth early picks next year because of the scarcity of good ones? Well, I think we answered the tight end question with a yes. Are quarterbacks worth early picks next year

because of the scarcity of good ones? Ben, first word. It's a hard no for me. Just looking, you can look at every year for examples of this, but this year, Aaron Rodgers and Tannehill, you could have drafted late, could have picked up Herbert or even Hertz towards the end of the year, but ranking quarterbacks for next year,

there are seven guys who I'm confident could end up as the number two quarterback. Kyler, Lamar, Watson, Rogers, Allen, Dak, and Russell Wilson. You're not going to have to pick any of those guys in the top five rounds, and you'd be very comfortable with them as your starting quarterback. And I'll throw in if Jalen Hurts and Taysom Hill are starting I think both

of them have that upside we've seen it from them and so you know that's a question but I think assuming you know if those guys start I think it's 11 quarterbacks who I'd feel fine with starting and even like Tom Brady's been pretty awesome this year. Yeah, and 11 quarterbacks are averaging at least 24.9 points and six points per touchdown. I don't think there's a dearth of good quarterbacks. I had 12. 11, Mariota is in the top 12. Oh, okay.

Okay, so then, yeah, here's this stat, right? So 12 quarterbacks are averaging between 24.9 and 29.7. So about five points separating one through 11. The next guy is Ben Roethlisberger. He's three points back of number 11. So that's a huge gap between 11 and 12 compared to one through 11. And yeah, it was a great thing to think about that, Adam. You're in a 12 team league.

Probably nine of them are star, like at least nine teams have one of those really good quarterbacks. Yeah. Yeah. I want to, I want a great quarterback and I want a mobile one too, for sure. The two, uh, the two teams that I won the championship with this year were both. I had Mitchell Trubisky and Jalen hurts in my starting lineup in week 16. And it wasn't because someone got hurt. Streaming wasn't that hard this year either.

Yeah, no, I mean, it got better. It certainly got better at the end with those guys coming on and hurts had a bad game, you know, but well, you had a decent game for fantasy.

19 points? 19. I had him at 19. All right. Either way. Well, it's kind of a big difference, actually. But he was in top 12. I'd say that.

I'd like to know how many points he scored. Right, but he also got you to the championship game if you had him in the lineup the previous two weeks. The previous week, yes. The previous two weeks? Why is everybody acting like he... He had 25 in week 14, didn't he? I thought he had like 21 against...

I thought he had 20 against the Saints. All right, let's figure this out once and for all. We're talking six points per pass in touchdown. 21, sure. 21? Okay, so Jalen Hurts' last three games were 20 points, 43 points, and 19 points. Now, he played really well against the Saints,

and he's rushed for 106 yards. He played pretty well against the Saints. You know, it's the same thing. Remember I kind of talked about how I looked at all of his passes against Arizona when he had the 43 passes? And he didn't do quite as well in the second half, and his offensive line stunk in the second half against Arizona. It happened again.

The protection just kept breaking down, and he got very turnover prone. You can only do so much behind that offensive line. It will be better next year. And, yeah, he'll be very popular next year for sure. Okay, and finally from Miguel Ho-Ho-Jose. How about how incredible the running back position looks for next year?

I've never seen so many backs I would gladly take as my number one like this. It's like Dave Richards' fantasy come true. Do you guys agree with that? Ben, do you agree with that? Right now, yes. When I saw that question and I looked at my rankings, the top 18 for running backs was super easy to make because I liked almost all of them.

You got to remember in free agency, some of these backfields will get dirty in the draft. The Bengals could draft a running back and I don't want to touch Joe Mixon. The Seahawks can draft a running back and I don't want Chris Carson as a top 12 running back. So things will get dirty. But as of right now, yeah yeah i feel great about a lot of running backs yeah i mean i do too but i just know the reality is that 40 of them are gonna be bad sure you know what i mean it's don't be fooled it's uh but what i like about this group right now is there there don't seem to be too many guys who are just, well, he's going to get a lot of carry. So he's got to be ranked, you know, 17th. There's no Le'Veon Bell. There's no

Todd Gurley. There's no David Johnson for me. I have all, you know, David Johnson's 25. It's, it's mostly, it's mostly young guys, mostly guys who can play three downs. Some of them are unproven. The rookies especially, there's a lot of dreaming on them, and I would think a couple of them probably won't live up to expectations next year. But if Myles Gaskin is the starting running back

for the Dolphins next season, and they don't bring in a really good competitor for him, he's probably a top 24 24 pick top 30 pick. He was really awesome this year. And, you know, they showed no inclination to not use him on,

on all three downs. So I think there are, there just aren't as many, well, I guess I've got to draft him guys in the top 24 as norm yeah you know who that is Ezekiel Elliott nah nah is he is I think it's Chris Carson or I don't know well Carson is interesting because yeah maybe it's Chris Carson I I'm going to get killed for... It might be J.K. Dobbins. Oh.

Yeah, he's going to be a tough one. He's not going to catch any passes. I don't think he's going to be a... Do you think he's going to be a top 24 pick? I think so. I think there's a lot of excitement about J.K. Dobbins. There is. I think...

Yeah, maybe. I mean, in non-PPR, I feel like he'll make his way into the third round. And David Montgomery, I know he's, in non-PPR, I feel like he'll make his way into the third round. And David Montgomery, I know he's been awesome for like six weeks, but he's not going to have the easiest schedule in the history of running backs next year, probably. Right.

For all 16 games. And Tariq Cohen will be back. And Tariq Cohen's probably going to be back, so his receiving workload's going to, yeah. But even still, David Montgomery's a third-year guy who just had an awesome second season. Mm-hmm. Well, he had an awesome five games.

Six games, whatever it was. On the whole, I have not been upset with having had David Montgomery on any of my teams. Except, okay, that's... He was one of the biggest busts. He was not a bust because he went so late.

He was crap. Everybody was like, this guy stinks at football. Yeah. He's had a remarkable turnaround in his season and career. So let's, right, I mean, let's make sure we're being honest here. But after Tariq Cohen's injury, he was pretty consistently pretty good. Because he was getting catches. He was not running the ball well.

He was not doing great things. Right, and that's why I think he's probably a guy who you can just look at and say, well, he's going to get a lot of carries and maybe we'll overpay for him next year. Yeah, it's pretty interesting how well the Bears offense has been playing. Are you going to buy it?

Maybe something clicked. Maybe something clicked and they brought Trubisky back. All right, that's it for today's show. Thanks a lot, everybody. Thanks for listening. We're going to talk to you tomorrow with the waiver wire. For Ben and Chris, I'm Adam.

See ya.