Fantasy Football Today - Five Biggest Fantasy Football Mysteries of 2025! (04/07 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: April 7, 2025

Hop in the Mystery Machine and let's solve some of the biggest mysteries of 2025! First, some news and notes (6:35) as Miami's left tackle retired, Geno Smith got a new contract and we have some NFL Draft updates. Then we get into our first mystery: Which new coach or coordinator will have the biggest impact in 2025 (10:25)? ... Can we trust old running backs or was 2024 a fluke (19:50)? We talk about Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones and James Conner. Also, let's switch to a young running back and talk about Ashton Jeanty (27:05)! ... Can Patrick Mahomes get back to an elite Fantasy quarterback after two straight disappointing seasons (32:00)? We'll tell you why Xavier Worthy might be the key. And finally, do any tight ends outside the Top 3 have a chance at being elite (42:40)? Maybe it's Tyler Warren? ... Email us at [e-mail] Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Shop our store: shop.cbssports.com/fantasy  SUBSCRIBE to FFT Express on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-express/id1528634304 Follow FFT Express on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6qyGWfETSBFaciPrtvoWCC?si=6529cbee20634da8 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 FOLLOW FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 SUBSCRIBE to FFT DFS on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dfs/id1579415837 FOLLOW FFT DFS on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5zU7pBvGK3KPhfb69Q1hNr?si=1c5030a3b1a64be2 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." Visit the betting arena on CBSSports.com for all the latest sportsbook reviews and sportsbook To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is fantasy football today from CBS Sports. What a play! Can you believe this? No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races and he stays on his feet. This is gonna go the distance. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.

Ooh, we need mysterious music for today's show. We're solving five of the biggest fantasy football mysteries for 2025. Welcome, everybody. It is Monday, April 7th. Adam Azer here with Dave Richard and Heath Cummings. Jamie is somewhere watching a basketball game tonight. Not really a big deal, but yeah, he's at the national championship game. That's pretty cool.

Oh, wow. Yeah. Yeah. So Schaefer's not he's backstage. Everybody's pumped for the Gators. Anyway, so we got these big mysteries. Heath said he doesn't know what I sent the notes, but Heath hadn't taken a look. He said, I'm just going to guess what they are. Would you like to know last year's mysteries? Yeah. OK. Yeah, that'll set the table for me.

So here are last year's biggest mysteries. Can we trust older quarterbacks coming off torn Achilles? No. How high will the rookie wide receivers get drafted? Remember, we had these big three that were going to be top 10 picks. Yeah, they got drafted pretty high. Will a rookie running back finish top 12? No, no. And we were right on that one. Will the quarterback position look like it did in 2023 and 2023? We only had one quarterback averaging more than 24.2 fantasy points per game and that

was kind of evenly distributed. So the question was, would it be like that again? And it wasn't. It was better. Yeah, I was a little bit more elite, a little bit more elite. And then number five was were Dak Prescott and CD Lam's second halves legit? All right, so how you feeling Heath?

You feel ready to guess? Feeling very bad. I had some more football related mysteries that I was wanting to guess. So I'm gonna put those on the back burner for now. And I'll go with- It's really not that similar to 2024. I'm going to put those on the back burner for now. And, um, it's really not that similar to 2024. I'm just going to give you that. Okay. Cause I was going to go with something along the lines of,

um, who will be the starting quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts or will Anthony Richardson and Justin Fields be good enough to keep their jobs? Those are not on there. Those are good mysteries though. Will Ashton Gentile be a first round pick as a rookie? Yeah. One of them is, uh, will Ashton Gentile's rookie season be more like Saquon Barkley's or Bijon Robinson's. So we have Gentile.

He's got one. How many more is he going to get Adam? I think he gets at least one more on the. Yeah, I think so. I think so. Yeah. Um, will Marvin Harrison Jr. ever be as good as we thought he was going to be? No, no, that was one of mine that I suggested to Adam.

Yeah, I think I'm already done. All right. We got five mysteries today. Which new new coach or coordinator will have the biggest impact? Can we trust old running backs or was last season a fluke? That's a good one. Is Ashton Gentey's rookie season going to look more like Saquon Barkley's or Bezos Robinson's? Can Patrick Wilhomes be elite again after two straight disappointing seasons?

Keith, of all the mysteries, that's one that was right in your wheelhouse. I had a Chiefs related mystery, but I just thought it was going to be will Rush G Rice or Xavier Worth worthy be the number one wide receiver. You know, it's crazy. That whole offense is actually a mystery at this. Yes. Yeah. Is Travis Kelsey completely washed?

Is there a tight end outside the top three, assuming George Kittle is third that even has a chance to be elite. So I'm looking forward to that one. All right. Favorite TV show involving mysteries guys? What do you think? Oh, only murders in the building has been amusing.

That's a new one. I always love criminal minds. All right. I'm just gonna say Scooby Doo. We have a team named Tuesday from Jacob. April Bowers bring Zay Flowers. That's a good one. It's good and it's seasonal.

I have some listening to do when I'm in the car today. FFT dynasty running back preview with Jacob Gibbs and Matt Waldman. Looking forward to watching, I'm gonna listen to that one. I did watch a bit of it and Matt Waldman doesn't look anything like I thought he would.

Kind of thought he'd look like Heath and he doesn't. So his voice and Heath's body makes sense together. But that's weird. Yeah. I'm halfway through the episode. I can't get over the detail that Matt Waldman goes into with every single, I don't know how he has the time to do this on top of like the real life work that he has. He's unbelievably meticulous and I love that about him. And

so I was so excited to see that episode show up halfway through and there's even like this really interesting discussion. It's like a stats versus film fight between Jacob and Matt over a prospect. Cool. That is pretty popular. So I think you'll really learn a lot and enjoy that episode quite a bit. Highly recommended for all of our dynasty leaders. It's the perfect comment. It was a fantastic combination really. Like Matt Waldman helped bring me into the industry and I was here for the Jacobs entry into the industry. Jibs is the true media guru and Waldman's been doing

the film thing for 20 years now. Yeah. Jacob has been watching a lot of film too and he's posting a lot of clips on Twitter. You should definitely be following him. But let's get it to our show here. The news and notes, Miami left tackle, Tyrone Armstead retired.

Two straight seasons. The Dolphins have had the lowest average time to throw in the NFL. They get the ball super quick. It helps negate. Yeah, it helps negate what could be a bad offensive line. But with Armstead on the field in 2024, the Dolphins allowed a 25.8% pressure rate.

So that's 26% of their drop backs there was pressure with Armstead on the field. With him off the field, 33.2% pressure rate. So it's 26% of their drop backs. There was pressure with Armstead on the field with him off the field, 33.2% pressure rate. So it's not good. Dallas acquired Joe Milton and a seventh round pick from the Patriots for a fifth round pick. And Dak Prescott recovering from a torn hamstring. He should be fine, but Heath, any thoughts on Joe Milton?

Got you mid beverage there. Any thoughts on Milton going to the Cowboys? This is less than they paid for Trey Lance, right? Yeah. And Jonathan bingo. But you see what they're, they're, they're what they're up to now is they're trying to find some sort of lightning in a bottle with a quarterback that's got some upside and they can get on the cheap while they're paying Dak Prescott

an exorbitant amount of money given his age and wear and tear. I thought it was funny that this happened right after we were done talking about Joe Milton on our last podcast, Adam. We'll see what happens, but my guess is that he got traded for like what's a backup deal. He's going to be a backup that the Cowboys are going to try and develop. Dave said one particular word there in regards to what the cowboys are trying to do that I thought was key. Try? No. Fail. The cheap. Oh, okay. The Cardinals signed Tray McBride Okay. The Cardinals signed Trey McBride, McBride is his name, to a four year $76 million deal, 43 million guaranteed.

The Raiders signed Geno Smith to a two year $85.5 million extension. They also signed Trey Lance. Now the Geno Smith deal, it doesn't really give him a lot more job security. It's a two year extension, so that three years from now, that money's not guaranteed. He has two years of guaranteed money remaining

on his contract, but from what I read, it's not that much guaranteed money next year. So it could end up being a one year deal really for Geno Smith from what I understand. Some NFL draft stuff, Chider Sanders and the Tennessee Titans, Titans have the number one pick, they canceled their private workout. That was after his pro day.

So either they saw enough, or they're gonna draft Cam Ward, which is what everybody thinks. Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroy was going to attend the NFL draft, which I thought was interesting. That news from the Athletic, and Julio Jones retired.

And if you're young and you don't really remember the prime of Julio Jones, which wasn't that long ago, but just in case there's some of you. He was unbelievable. He unfortunately didn't score that many touchdowns in his career, but from a yardage standpoint, few if any were better than Julio Jones. Someone in the comments, post a link to a YouTube highlight reel of Julio Jones, please. Oh, unbelievable. I think I read he had the most 250 yard games. He had three of them.

I wanna double check on that, but Julio Jones was absolutely incredible. All right, let's get to our mysteries. And we start with mystery number one. Which new coach, head coach or offensive coordinator will have the biggest impact? And some of the ones we're looking at, Ben Johnson going to the Bears,

John Morton replacing Ben Johnson. He is a guy who worked with Dan Campbell in 2016 with the Saints and 2022 with the Lions. He's coming over from the Broncos organization and now he's the offensive coordinator for the Lions. Liam Cohen to the Jaguars from the Bucks, Clint Kubiak, the new offensive coordinator for Seattle. Brian Schottenheimer being elevated from

offensive coordinator to head coach for Dallas. Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly to the Raiders. Mike Vrabel and Josh McDaniels to the Patriots. This one we're probably not going to talk much about, but Tommy Reese, offensive coordinator now for the Cleveland Browns. He was a passing game specialist in 2024. He's been an offensive coordinator now for the Cleveland Browns. He was a passing game specialist in 2024. He's been an offensive coordinator in college. Nick Kaley, the Rams passing game

coordinator, now the new offensive coordinator for the Texans. Kellen Moore being hired to coach the Saints and Aaron Glenn bringing in Tanner Engstrand from Detroit as the new head coach and coordinator for the Jets. Heath, which coaches will have the biggest impact? Optimistically, it's Ben Johnson. Pessimistically, it's the guy replacing Ben Johnson. What do you mean by that? You think he could be bad for the Lions? I think not having Ben Johnson could be bad for the Lions. Um, I think you have, when you have an offense like Detroit's, that's been so other worldly good for the last couple of years in terms of both scoring touchdowns

and offensive efficiency, and there's a change at offensive coordinator. And particularly when it's not a guy who was under Ben Johnson, but just a guy that's coming in from the Broncos, I think it's really, it would be hard to believe that everything's going to be exactly the same and it's almost impossible to believe that things are going to be better. So for probably going to be a little bit worse. Now, I think we all hope that it's like a two to 3% downgrade and it's not that big a deal, but I think we could see a decrease in Jared

Goff's passing efficiency. I think we could see a decrease in lions total touchdowns and that probably worries me the most for guys like Laporta and David Montgomery, whose games and fantasy production have been so heavily reliant on scoring dashes. Oh, boy, we are going to really put a lot of stock a lot of faith into the Bears offense with how we draft DJ Moore and Roma Dunze, not so much Caleb Williams. But and we'll see if

they draft a running back or whatever. But those guys, especially more, going to be pretty pricey investments. Even if, Dave, even if Ben Johnson doesn't work his magic, or let's just say even if Caleb Williams doesn't take the next step, does the absence of Keenan Allen just kind of make more and Odunze fairly safe picks. They're just going to dominate targets. I don't want to lose sight of, and like this isn't a big deal, but I don't want to lose sight of Cole Comet at tight end.

We know the role that Sam Laporta played in Detroit with Ben Johnson. I don't want to rule out somebody that the Bears draft coming in and taking some work away, there could be a target crunch. And it's just one of those things that does worry me a little bit. The work that I wanna do is who's most likely

to be among Amonra St. Brown. And that's a guy that's gonna get eight plus targets per game. That's somebody that it's basically gonna be, all right, it's third down or it's late in the game. We need somebody who can make a big play who's going to get that ball. And everybody that's watching and listening right now is assuming that it's going to be DJ Moore and why wouldn't it be?

And so that's what keeps me a little concerned about a doonsay ascending to being, can he do what Jameson Williams did last year? I don't even think he's the same type of receiver. He's kind of close to it, he's the same type of receiver. He's kind of close to it, but not the same type of guy. There will be a third target getter there that will be, I can't say consistently involved, Adam, but someone who can throw a wrench into the upside of anybody in a given week and maybe into the upside of a doonsay over the course of the season. For now, that's Colt Comet. I want to just point out that I think personally that this is a really good year of new head

coaches and offensive coordinators. You look at Harbaugh and Roman coming into the Chargers last year. I feel the same way about what's going on with the Patriots and the Raiders. You've got proven winners taking over these teams and Josh McDaniels has a great track record and even if you take out the Tom Brady years, the first year of Mac Jones, they were a top 10 scoring office. They were eighth in points per game, 11th in yards per play. They did not have a great roster and then they sunk after that when he left and went to the Raiders and then in his first year with the Raiders, they were 12th in yards per play. They did not have a great roster. And then they sunk after that when he left

and went to the Raiders. And then in his first year with the Raiders, they were 12th in points per game. They were eighth in yards per play. His second year with the Raiders was a disaster. But as a head coach, he has failed. As an offensive coordinator, McDaniels has a great track record.

Chip Kelly has a great track record. In three of four seasons, he had a really good offense with the Eagles. And then he took over the 49ers. He took over a team that was last in the NFL in scoring the year before. And then they were 27th. He wasn't really that great.

But I mean, you've got professionals. You've got experience. You've got winners. I think it's great. And then you've got Ben Johnson, Liam Cohen. I'm hoping he can work his magic because there's a lot of talent in Jacksonville. I don't know.

I just look at the landscape. And I see potential for a lot of improvement here with these hires. I think you picked the right ones to make that call with. If I were to focus on the negative a little bit, there are five new play callers that are apparently going to try and work from their predecessor's playbook. All right. Let me break in here with a quick commercial break and a little tease there. Dave's got five that he that he's maybe a little concerned

about. And we'll be right back on fantasy football today. Go on sir. So the one that I'm least concerned about is Kevin Petullo in Philadelphia. He's been with the Eagles for a while. I kind of get the sense that he's been sort of a right hand man to Nick Sirianni. And it'll be a combination of like what Philadelphia wants to do, which is run the ball, be physical, and then add in maybe elements of what Kellen Moore brought to that passing game last year.

So I'm not too worried about that one. I'm not terribly worried about Josh Grizzard in Tampa either. I know it's their third play caller in as many years, but again, somebody who's been around with Tampa for at least a little bit and knows that offense and should be able to work from the Liam Cohen playbook, which was kind of based off of a little bit of the Dave Canales playbook. So I just think that type of consistency isn't necessarily a bad thing. The ones that do worry me, Schottenheimer and Dallas, you know, on top of all the issues that Dallas has personnel-wise, I don't know

how much he's going to start rewriting what Mike McCarthy had. I know that in Detroit, John Morton is not going to start rewriting what Ben Johnson had. But I did read that Morton and Dan Campbell kind of agreed that they want the offense to just be as comfortable as possible for Jared Gough. They don't want to change all the terminology around for him. That makes sense. But it's just it's a different brain in that playbook. And it's somebody and John Morton, his first time being a play caller, he was with the Jets. It didn't go very well, but very familiar with what Dan Campbell is looking for. And then the last one, Nick Kaley in Houston, kind of a wild card, not sure what to expect there, not sure how much of the playbook he's keeping

from the Texans and their offense from when Sloak was there. I just think that anytime you've got a new play caller, especially in the case of a first time play caller, taking over somebody else's playbook, it just it gets a little bit messy. And I would be a little bit nervous about a tiny bit nervous about all five, but especially nervous about Houston, Detroit, and Dallas.

Okay. Anything else? New Orleans, by the way, I don't know how much you talked about Kellen Moore. Oh, you know, we one thing I want to bring up about Kellen Moore, we'll talk about with Kamara, his teams have never ranked higher than 19th in running back target rate, which is interesting. But you're excited about any good pass catching running backs along the way. So a little concerned at Echler. Yeah. Right. At least

one year. Okay, I think we should move on. We've been on that topic for a while. Let's go to our second topic here. Can we trust old running backs or was last season a fluke? Heath, Derrick Henry at age 30 last year. Obviously everybody just add one year because they're a year older.

Age 30, Derrick Henry was RB3 per game in PPR. Alvin Kamara, James Connor and Aaron Jones. They were all 29 last year. Kamara was RB five per game. Connor RB 15 per game. And he was even better than that. If you take away two games, he left early. Aaron Jones, RB 19 per game. He left one game early. Can we trust old running backs or was last season a fluke? And also, I guess maybe you can, I don't know if you want to talk about McCaffrey, Barclays, 28, whatever it is, Nixon. Yeah, I'm probably not going to make the bust case for Derek Henry again. But I do think like all those names you said, and probably Barclay too, I'm going to have

ranked lower than what they did last year. And so I, if people are going to draft them close to where they finished last year. And so if people are gonna draft them close to where they finished last year, I'm probably not going to end up with any of them again. As a rule, when we have these trends that span years or decades in the NFL and we have one odd year that stands out, I think there's two ways that you can take that.

One, we have an incredible group of aging running backs that have been fantastic throughout their career and they're continuing to be fantastic. But it's probably not indicative that the next group that moves from 28 to 29 to 30 are going to do the same thing. And Father Time is still undefeated. At some point, Derek Henry is going to have a fall off. And just everybody's tired of predicting it at this point. You know, I gotta call out Father Time here.

I think we give him a little bit of the benefit of the doubt because when is he actually playing, right? Was he playing against Derrick Henry last year? Cause if he was, he lost. I don't know if he's, it's not fair. He's placed by a different set of rules where eventually sure he's gonna win. But you know, like when are we really?

That's kind of the point though. Yeah. That's kind of the point. So in this particular case, he might father time might not win until like 2031. I will say it's that unique of a running back and usually it's the unique guys that can keep father time. They can stiff arm him a little bit, keep him from, you know, overcoming eventually.

We saw it. We saw it with Tom Brady. We're seeing it in like the sport that's currently happening right now in basketball with LeBron James. He's doing things. He's just, it's just different. So there are guys like that. I don't think there are six running backs in the NFL right now that are just different

that are all going to just continue being fine. I do think it's, there's pretty strong evidence that throughout history, medicine, sports medicine gets a little bit better. The age curve gets pushed back a little bit further. But I just do my projections for the most part without thinking about age, except for the fact that I don't project a bounce back here for a guy who's old. So I've talked about this with wide receivers before you have a down efficiency year at 30 years old. I'm not gonna expect you to turn back into your 28 year old self. But for the guys that didn't really show any sign of decline, I'm going to rank them a little bit lower than where they are in the projections because

I do think there's an increased risk of injury. There's an increased risk of that age finally catching up with them, but I'm not just going to totally fade them. If we just talk about those five guys, I guess it's four. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Henry, Kamara, Connor Jones, they're all 29 or older last year. They're all going to be 30 or older this year. Is there one that you think that you like at ADP, one that you're fading at ADP, Derek Henry, I assume will be a first or early second round pick, Alvin Kamara, I don't know, around three or four, and then James Connor and Aaron Jones probably in the same range in five, round five-ish or so? Connor would be one for me.

That you are fighting? Talked about him last week. How he's one of those RB2s that you settle for in that round five, six range. You like them. I'm fine with Camaro in round four and full PPR. Yeah. I mean, Camaro's, I've always made this case that Camaro has been kind of a bad ish or unimpressive running back for straight years and he's always great for fantasy.

So I don't. So those catches. Yeah, exactly. And by the way, like I just did the homework on this. You're right about Kellen Moore, not like heavily targeting running backs a lot out of the backfield. I think his high is 18 and a half percent of a running back target share with Dallas in 2021.

But you tell me, Dallas in 2021, the running backs averaged 6.9 targets per game. 6.9 again in 2020 chargers, 2023 Echler wasn't himself. That was when his decline started. He averaged or the chargers overall average five and a half targets per game. 5.8 for the Cowboys in 2019. It's really just 2022 in Dallas and Philly last year and Philadelphia. They just don't throw to their running backs that much. I think that Kellen Moore can get five plus targets per game to Alvin

Camara, if not six, provided that Camara stays healthy, doesn't have to share that much, I'd still be a little optimistic as far as that goes with Kellen Moore there. I would guess this is also the most, um, I mean, it's clearly the worst quarterback that Kellen Moore's had, except for one of the years that Dak was hurt. He went from Dak to Justin Herbert to Jalen Hurts to now an aging Derek Carr. So that is kind of swings two ways for me. I think it's more likely that Derek Carr is going to target his running backs than Jalen Hurts and Dak Prescott.

And also I, I'm a little bit concerned that Kellan Moore will have a hugely positive impact because he doesn't have the same talent on offense that he's used to. It's true. Well, I, I, you know, some would say that Olavi and Kamara are, he doesn't have the quarterback talent though. I think it's the point you're making. Well, but you're going from AJ Brown to Vontae Smith and Saquon Barkley to those guys. Yeah. But you're also going to the year before that. Keenan Allen, like I don't, I think a lot of people probably think at this stage of their

careers, Chris Olavi is better than Keenan Allen. Yeah. But. Not to two years ago, Keenan Allen. Yeah. But. Right. Not the two years ago, Keenan Allen. Keenan Allen was great. Echler. So Echler that one year that Moore was in with the Chargers 2023.

Echler was on pace for 90 targets. He was only on pace for 62 catches. That was his worst catch rate by far of his career, basically. But 90 targets, Kamara last year was on pace for 110 targets I think. So honestly, even if he's at 90 targets, I think it's probably still valuable fourth round pick, something like that. All right, let's go to our next one. Is Ashton Gentry's rookie season going to look more like Saquon Barkley's rookie season

or Bijonry's rookie season going to look more like Saquon Barkley's rookie season or Bijon Robinson's rookie season? Barkley in 2018 was the number one running back in PPR, number two per game, a little bit worse in non PPR, but still elite. Bijon on the other hand finished as a top 10 running back, but on a per game basis, he was 17th in non PPR, 15th in full PPR. Remember he did have that one game with the migraines.

So without that, I don't know, maybe he was something like RB 13, whatever, but he was he was a bit of a bust. Is genties rookie season going to look more like Barclays or Bijans Dave? I think he's got a better shot to look like Barclay than Bijan. I think he's one of the most NFL ready prospects in the draft, obviously, at running back. He'll start week one, but I think he's very clean as far as prospects go in a down year of the draft class. He's powerful. He's got unreal contact balance. He's got great speed. The better his offensive line is, obviously, the better that he'll be able to do. I also think that he's got untapped potential as a pass catcher. Listen to this. So last year, not a lot of catches

for him. The year before he had over 40 catches. And in high school, his first year playing high school football in America, it was in Dallas. He was at Lone Star High School. He was all district first team at wide receiver. They couldn't use him at running back because they had a log jam at running back. They use him at running back the year after, but he's, he's clean. When you watch his targets, he's not bobbling the ball. He can catch smoothly, brings the ball in, moves upfield. Look at me. I'm sounding like Matt Waldman just a little bit.

I think that there is upside for him to be impactful and PPR on top of non-PPR. And it wouldn't surprise me if he, it wouldn't surprise me if he led the league in yards from scrimmage this year, but I'm almost certain it'll happen at least once in the next four years. And as long as he's on a team where we really like the offensive environment, uh, he should be great for fantasy. There's a chance he goes in round one in redraft leagues this year. If he's the top 10 pick, that's pretty much my expectation. Top 10 pick in the NFL draft.

You expect, I think he'll be, I think if he's a top 10 pick in the NFL draft, he'll be a top 12 pick. And I think the only thing I really think, I think if you remember back to that Bigeon year, like Arthur Smith was the big problem, right? There was too many Tyler Algier carries inside the five yard line. Yeah. Well, you got 16. You take out that migraine game, 16.9 touches per game for Bijan, whereas Barkley had 22 touches per game. Barkley had 91 catches that year. 16.9 touches per game is really not that bad. I mean, it's not first round pick worthy for sure,

in fantasy. But it's just only four touchdowns. Like he wasn't getting the goal line work. It was stupid. It was, I don't, we were all sitting there like what, yeah, like Arzer Smith problem, yeah. But turn him loose, turn him loose. And I think probably, hopefully he gets to 40 catches.

But Barkley and Henry certainly proved that you don't need 40 catches to be elite just last season. All right. You need a lot of touchdowns and he can do that. I think it'll be closer to Barkley. We think it'll be closer to Barkley than Robinson, but I don't think it'll be as good as Barkley's personally because I don't think the catches will be close. It really depends on whether you're talking about Barclays at RB2 that year. Two per game, one overall. And are you talking about Bijan's RB20 season or Bijan without the migraine so he's RB12-13?

Because if you're talking about the difference between one, two or 12-13, then I'd probably set the over-under right in the middle. Like RB6.5 half. Sounds good. Let me do points. Let me do points per game then. Barkley was at 24 points per game. Still his best season was his rookie season in terms of PPR points per game. Bijon was at 14.8. Now let's take away the one game. Maybe add another point there. Let's call it 16. 16 points per game for Bijon, 24 points per game for Barclay.

We got to go in the middle. You think we'll get to 20? I'd probably set the over-ender at 17 and a half. 17 and a half? Not, not quite. John H.Han had 17.6. Johnathan Taylor at 17.5 last year, he scored 12 touchdowns. 17 and a half would not quite be first round value, most likely

that feels a little bit more like mid to late second round value. To me anyway. But all right, 17 and a half is he's over under. That's curious. You know what, Thomas, you want to do a YouTube poll while we have some time left? See what the audience thinks. 17 and a half PPR fantasy points per game for Ashton Genthe. And no, I'm not going to give you a destination. You're just going to have to guess.

Let's get to topic number four. Can Patrick Mahomes be elite again after two straight disappointing seasons? Dave, you your first up. We saw it in the last three games when Xavier Worthy got hot. Worthy averaged 21 PPR points per game. Mahomes averaged 25.8 fantasy points per game.

I would consider that elite. I would also consider that the ceiling for Patrick Mahomes. We know what the floor is. We've seen it now each of the last two seasons. Mahomes needed that three game stretch to get to 20.9 fantasy points per game in 2024. In 2023, he had the exact same number. I don't recall Heath, you might, did he have a big three game stretch at the end of the regular season to help him? No, I'll tell you this. Starting in late 2023 and including the playoffs,

he had a 19 game stretch where he scored more than 21 fantasy points twice. That was late 2023 through that Super Bowl run and through the first half of 2024, 19 games. He scored more than 21 fantasy points in six point per passing touchdown leagues twice. Then he did it in seven of his last 13 games in 2024 and through the playoffs. I'd like to see his receiving core be healthy and available to begin the year. I'd like that offensive line to at least resemble what it looked like at the beginning of last season. And if those two things happen, combined with the big question mark that they've got a running back, then I think we could be cautiously optimistic that my homes deserves to be the QB six. You have the same type of upside as hurts burrow and then the big three Josh Allen Lamar Jane Daniels I would say no to that. But if we're assuming that everything's good in Kansas City, myomes can still be that QB six and you'll draft them accordingly.

So I words matter, Adam. So the question was, can he, or will he? Cause can he, I would say absolutely. Yes. Like you give, you give Patrick Mahomes a full season with a healthy Rashi Rice, Xavier worthy and Marquise Brown is his top three wide receivers with Travis Kelsey just cleaning up underneath. And maybe the defense takes a step back. Yes,

I absolutely believe that Patrick Mahomes can still be the number one quarterback in fantasy. Okay, I'm going to show you why I think he also can after this commercial break. We'll be right back with some fun screenshots after this. All right, Patrick Mahomes, I just say what's gone on the last two years? This is the last two years he's basically been QB 11 per game. One of the things that stands out is the lack of explosive plays. In terms of let's say touchdown passes of 20 or more yards, he has

seven of those in the last two seasons combined. In his prime, he was double digits with Tyree Kill. His first three seasons as a starter, 15 touchdown passes of 20 or more yards in all three seasons. The last two years, seven combined. So we need that. Let's take a look at Xavier Worthy's role in this. On pass attempts of 20 or more area yards to Xavier Worthy, Patrick Mahomes completed three of 17 passes for 120 yards and two touchdowns, and also a couple of interceptions, I believe. I've got five screenshots here. I want to show you some plays. Thomas, let's bring up the first one. This is Xavier Worthy. This is an incomplete pass. Okay. All of these are incomplete passes. He is wide open on this play. Let's go to our next one. Not only that, but the safety's back was turned to him on that play. This is an incomplete

pass. I know if you're not watching, if you wanna see it, youtube.com slash fantasy football today, but this is an incomplete pass to a wide open Xavier worthy. It's just bad footwork on both of those two plays of him not getting his feet in bounds. Let's go to our next one here. They're not as bad.

He's got a step here. This is a tough play to make. It's a tough play to make, but this is the kind of play that you would expect occasionally Tyreek Hill, Patrick Mahomes, they turned that into a huge play. This was an incomplete pass. Next up, he's got a step. I think you can't see it's a little dark, but Patrick Mahomes is getting hit as he throws.

This is an incomplete pass, but Xavier Worthy again showing he can get behind defensive backs. All right, and we got one more here where he has a step and a half on a defensive back. He is wide open. You expect this play up the sideline to be a big play. This was an incomplete pass. They needed five screenshots to tell us that Xavier Worthy is fast. Not just that, but they left a lot of points on off the board. They left a lot of points on the field. Okay. They missed. It makes me, this of all the things I watched this weekend, these screenshots, these plays

of Xavier Worthy getting open and some of them inexcusably not coming down with catches, I think that's going to get fixed in year two. I think he's going to bring an element to this offense that we haven't seen since Tyreek Hill. I'm very optimistic about Worthy and And I think it's gonna really pull up Patrick Mahomes' production too. At least three of those, if memory serves correct, I could just like, you transported me back in time, Adam,

with each of those screenshots. There was one of them I didn't remember. But I think at least, if I'm remembering right, at least three of those, Xavier Worthy did catch the ball. He just had a foot out of bounds. Certainly two, maybe three. I think that last one. I think the last one was kind of a bad throw.

Like the two yard line and with a foot out of bounds. Yeah, I think so. I think personally, I think that one was kind of on my homes, but maybe half on my homes. The other ones were all on Worthy. Those other two were all on Worthy, but yeah, like he's going to get better at that. You have to almost try to be out of bounds to be out of bounds on those

first two. So, uh, I think worthy is, is if he has a big second season, I mean, it's just going to add these, these big strikes to the cheap's offense that they just haven't had in the last two years. I do think that rice is going to be at least partially key to that. Because if you have, like Rice and what he does underneath is so special. And I know that a lot of times you don't like the A-dot or the Yaks necessarily not sustainable, but what he does, like defenses have to pay attention to Rice underneath. I'm not sure with what Travis Kelce's shown the last year and a half that he's going to

draw that much under attention underneath. I'm not sure with what Travis Kelsey's shown the last year and a half that he's going to draw that much under attention underneath. But if you have both worthy and Rice and then like, let's not forget, even if Marquis Brown can just get back to being what he 80% of what he used to be like that trio. Yeah, it's good. It's good. All right. So we all think it's there. It's just a tough one because you know, you could get such a great discount on him. But if he if Mahomes performs like he has in each of the last two years, then you're actually you're overdrafting him. I think we've seen the same thing. We saw the same thing

though with both Brady and Rogers. When you're a quarterback in the NFL for 20 seasons, you're probably not going to give 20 elite fantasy seasons. Like Brady had a couple of years, I think we had like three different times where we thought Brady was washed. Rogers had a couple of terrible years and then won an MVP. Like there's the ebb and flow of an NFL career, and especially at this position when the career is so long.

At my home's age, there's no reason to think that there's any reason he can't be that guy again. We had a, Pops in the chat had a good point. The defense almost has to take a step back for him to be as good as he could be. I have numbers on that actually. Okay, his last seven seasons, this is where the Chiefs defense has ranked in scoring. 24th in this is Mahomes' first year as a starter,

his best year, 24th, then seventh, then 11th, which I think was another one of Mahomes' is like huge seasons, then eighth, then 11th, which I think was another one of my homes is like huge seasons, right? Eighth, then 16th, which was another one of my homes is huge. That was the year with Juju actually the first year without Tyreek. The last two years they've been second and fourth. So you know what the thing is though, I almost feel like it's a coincidence because it hasn't really affected his past attempts and it hasn't led to more like running back rushing touchdowns or anything like that.

To me, the big number is the Ariards and the big plays. I sort of agree with that take because the numbers are there. His best seasons have been the worst defensive seasons. Not that they've been bad necessarily, but they haven't been elite. But even with these two straight elite defensive seasons, he's still throwing the ball a ton. I just think he's missing that big play stuff, which is- There's that. And then there's also how many games have the Chiefs needed Mahomes to put up 28 points,

31 points. There were a bunch of games last year. They were one score wins for Kansas City. I don't remember them having to put up a ton of points in those games. Trey Lockerbie No, no. All right, let's go to our last topic here. Aaron Norris It's almost like they're, just to make your point with the Ariards, they're operating kind of the same way. They're just not nearly as explosive. And that's been a huge part of why Mahomes numbers have taken a dip

Well, I think maybe you could make the case that because they're such a good defensive team They don't have to take a lot of risk risks downfield sets that another way you could yeah So maybe that is a great point that they need a little bit of a step back on defense All right Is there a tight end outside the top three the top three being Bowers McBride and I thought for you is Kittle Is it Kittle? Kittle is three for me. Is there a tight end outside the top three that even has a chance to be elite? Heath,

what do you think? Yeah. Yeah. There's like, well, I, you might need to qualify elite, but 15 fantasy points per game is elite. Yeah, I'd say that this position, like that's 50% better than tight end eight generally. So, um, that seems like a pretty, um, I, I would not be surprised if Sam Laporta has one of those seasons again. I'm not projecting it right now, but it's possible. I could see TJ Hawkinson having one of those seasons again.

I could see, I wouldn't be like, if you look at what Travis Kelsey did last year, and if Patrick Mahomes had just thrown a bunch of touchdown passes, like he had three touchdown passes, three touchdown catches last year and scored 12 fantasy points per game. So what if Travis Kelsey just scores more touchdowns? I think there's there's still a handful of guys that could reach that 15 fantasy point per game range. And Kittle Bowers and McBride were the only three to do that last year.

John who Smith and David Njoku averaged about 13.2. So to taste some Hill actually in PPR. Philip Brian in our chat says TJ Warren. And that's kind of where I wanted to go with this because I think the rookie tight ends have a real chance to be very good. I don't know about 15, but I feel like I want, Oh yeah. Tyler Warren.

Yes. Tyler Warren out of Penn State. TJ Warren was a basketball player, right? He played for the sons, I think out of Texas. I remember March Madness when I was in college. Maybe I'm thinking of PJ Tucker. We're to TJ Warren. TJ Tucker definitely went to Texas. I don't remember where TJ Warren went. TJ Warren go? TJ Tucker definitely went to Texas.

I don't remember where TJ Warren went. TJ Warren definitely went to Texas. Okay. NC State. Oh, he went to NC State? Okay. Yeah, PJ Tucker was the guy I was thinking of. But anyway, Tyler Warren, Colson Loveland, I Love Arroyo.

I think these guys are going to have some more upside than most of the tight ends and most of the veteran tight ends. I don't know how you feel about that, Dave. Dave Korsunsky It's totally going to depend on where they end up. I saw a mock draft where Tyler, don't call me TJ Warren went to the Jets. That's a top 10 pick. And if he goes there, I don't like his chances just because of Justin Fields, a quarterback and the expected uptick and rush attempts that the Jets will probably have with Justin Fields under center.

But if he goes to an offense where they're kind of light on targets and they're expected to throw a lot, then sure. Then one or both of those guys could end up being potentially good enough to get close to 15 PPR points per game? Wait, yeah. Be one of those teams. Maybe. I liked it. I mean, this is a good tight end class. It's a very, I'm not poo pooing the tight end class at all. It's a very good tight end class.

I don't, it would have to be a really great landing spot for me to believe that one of these guys could actually get in the 15 fantasy point per game range. Do we think- I would say that there's no chance that either of them go in the top six, the Jets are seventh. Would Carolina do it at eight? That might not be such a bad spot. Someone could be, a rookie could be the top target getter for the Panthers this year there. So that wouldn't be bad. Saints are nine. Chicago won't at 10.

San Francisco won't at 11. Dallas that would be kind of gross if they took one of these tight ends at 12. Miami at 13. Why? For fantasy? I don't think it would be gross. Maybe. I mean, it just depends on what it would mean for others.

I guess you're right. Yeah, I'd be pumped about it. Would Miami be someone just taking over the John U Smith role? Well, he's there. Could that be exciting? I would say so. Indianapolis at 14. We know about their quarterbacks. No. I would say after that, you'd be hard pressed to find a spot where a it makes sense. And B, they'd be great. Like really great. Maybe some of those teams deep into the 20s. It's interesting because I don't know that we felt that the Raiders were well, they traded

Adams so that changed things. But if you're a great player, Before that, we saw a good target volume for Bowers. And I don't think we have, I don't think we should be comparing rookie tight ends to Brock Bowers. Probably. That was my question. How much worse is Warren than Bowers? Warren's amazing. Warren as a 25 year old is as good as Bowers as a 19 year old. Okay. Maybe he's 24. I apologize. Father time says he'll be 25 someday.

If you guys want to get hyped about Elijah Royal, find the clip of him chasing down a Virginia Tech cornerback who intercepted Cam Ward. It is a DK Metcalf moment from a tight end. So you just really don't like Harold Fanon? Fanon is the one that I haven't, like over the weekend I watched those a tight end. So you just really don't like Harold Fanon. Fanon is the one that I haven't, over the weekend I watched those three tight ends, Warren, not Fanon, Warren, Loveland and Arroyo. I haven't gotten to Fanon yet,

but he led the country in catches for tight ends. Very impressive. I think Arroyo had, what did Arroyo have, like 35 catches or something? Not a lot. I've got Fanon ahead of Arroyo right now. He led the country in yards per catch, uh, tight ends. Um, fan and I don't, I'm not there yet on, I don't know. I don't know enough yet about him. For what it's worth a royal made heroic plays and practice every

day at the senior bowl. I fan in might've made one nice play on the last day of practice. It was just a three day span. You can't judge a guy based on that, but when a tight end like a royal doesn't have a ton of catches in his last year in college and then he goes to an all-star game and just dominates the coverage there, then you're gonna take notice.

That kid can play. Nevermind the jacket I'm wearing. He's big and he runs fast like Lufflin's kind of skinny, right? I mean, he's doesn't really look like a tight end. Um, they had a pretty low a dot. Anyway, we'll talk about that. I think we're doing this week. Which positions are we talking about this week, Thomas? We got a couple NFL draft shows coming up with Chris Chepas. So, I'm

pretty sure we're talking about tight ends this week. So I'm looking forward to that. I would like to know how Thomas is feeling about the game tonight. If he's willing to show his face in public. It's not super willing right now. All right. See this when you go to cut to a break to try and throw Thomas off his game. We are talking about wide receivers, quarterbacks and tight ends this week. We're going to save running backs, which is super deep for next week.

But I think the Gators are going to win fairly easily tonight. I don't know how you guys feel. I mean, Houston, but I said before the tournament, you heard what I told you. What'd you say? That the Gators were awesome. Did you do that yourself or did you use AI for that? No, no, no. That was actually something that my eyeballs told me and not AI. They were awesome. Did you do that yourself or did you use AI for that? No, no, no. That was actually something that my eyeballs told me

and not AI. They are awesome. It's Houston's AI. AI told me to take Houston. So I'm rooting. Cover your ears, Adam. I'm rooting for the Gators. What?

Yeah. You have money involved here? None, zero. And you're rooting for the Gators? Take your freaking jacket off right now. I'm rooting for the Florida Gators. I want to see them complete the run. I think they've got a list.

I love Elijah Martin. Like, it's that FAU connection that really made it happen for Florida this year. But I just think Houston's already crashed the party. Like it was supposed to be Florida and Duke. They are the two best teams, but you can't discount how hard Houston plays in their defensive intensity. And we'll just see how Florida responds to that.

That's what I noticed about Florida too though. I love that about college basketball. These kids, they play very hard. It's been a good tournament. It's been fun. It's Saturday. I didn't watch a second of the Duke game. Trag of the game, but the Florida Auburn game was great. And obviously the Duke game was an insane finish.

Bad foul call, bad foul call there on Coober flag. All right. Thanks everybody. Have a great day. We will talk to you on Wednesday with some NFL draft talk, get you acquainted with these prospects, but they've been doing that on FFT dynasty for a while now, so you can check out those episodes. We've got Jacob Gibbs coming

on tomorrow to talk about RB 7 through 12 and favorite sleepers. That's going to be a good, a good primer for me before, for our RB shows next week. All right. See you later, everybody. Talk to you tomorrow. Okay.