Fantasy Football Today - Free Agency Day 2 Recap! Rivers, Brady, Bridgewater and More (03/18 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: March 18, 2020

With Hall of Fame QBs changing teams, the NFL and Fantasy landscapes have changed quite a bit. Today we review the big news from Tuesday and discuss how the coronavirus may impact free agents who are changing teams (3:32) as they won't be able to work with coaches for the foreseeable future. Then let's get into whose value is changing (7:05) as we discuss D.J. Moore, Tom Brady, Julian Edelman, O.J. Howard, Philip Rivers, T.Y. Hilton and more ... Is DeAndre Hopkins the biggest loser of free agency (21:05)? Or is it Deshaun Watson? We debate the Fantasy impact of the Texans-Cardinals trade ... More news and notes including Jordan Howard to the Dolphins (34:10) and Jason Witten's impact on Darren Waller (37:32). At the end of the show we read an email (44:00) about #1 WRs, who qualifies as a #1 WR and how important they are to NFL teams ... Your emails at [e-mail] 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Castbox, Bullhorn and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @YardsPerGretch, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Two Hall of Fame quarterbacks are changing teams for the first time in their careers.

I'm putting Phil Rivers in the Hall of Fame. I hope that's not controversial. Jordan Howard will resume his Hall of Fame career with the Dolphins. If you listen to the Tom Brady emergency show, you know that obviously we're going to talk so much about Jordan Howard today. And Teddy Bridgewater will continue maybe to throw underneath passes with Carolina this season. Let's talk about it all. Adam Azer here.

Now, you've heard from Jamie this week. You've heard from Ben Gretsch. You haven't heard from Heath Cummings yet, although I've been reading his stories on the website on cbssports.com slash fantasy slash football. Heath, how are you holding up? You still got a lot of energy? It's been a tiring – well, it's been a busy week. It's been a busy week.

Yeah, it's been an exciting week. It's been kind of hard to keep up like this morning i tried to just take a couple hours and fix my rankings and it was shocking how much my top 12 top 24 at each position had changed in just a couple of days ben you talked yesterday about how the tight end position had really changed. That was the first episode we did yesterday. But then we had the Rivers news, the Brady news, the Bridgewater news, not in that order. What's your overall look at this now?

You step back, you look at what's happened through the first two days of free agency, and we still have more to come. What's your overall view now? This has been maybe the most entertaining free agency period we've ever had. I mean, it's obviously bolstered by not having a lot else going on. But Tom Brady left the Patriots. Phillip Rivers left the Chargers.

And plenty of impacts on every other position at this point. I mean, I think early, like you said, early on, tight end was, I think, most significantly impacted. But at this point, fantasy football is getting really shook up. So I'm excited to dig into it. And NFL football is getting shook up. Jamie, what is your overview of free agency so far? Amazing. Yeah, pretty cool, right? Pretty fun? Yeah. I mean, look, you got a lot of movement um the quarterback carousel has been what we hoped it would be you know a lot of guys changing teams um or big name guys changing teams excuse me and uh you know we still have a couple big dominoes to fall melvin gordon being the biggest for fantasy i know jordan howard probably is your biggest mover yeah um i also want to see

robbie anderson go you know so we have a couple of other big names. And let's not rule out any trades. The next one that we could hear, unless he's just cut, is Cam Newton to Washington, which would change a few things with the Redskins offense. So we also have

Jadeveon Clowney looking to see where he ends up. Defensive guys. Yeah. There seems to be quite a bit of heat on Cooks and Gurley too. I wouldn't be surprised if one or both of Cooks or Gurley is moved.

Bill O'Brien already ruined the market, so it's a little hard to trade Todd Gurley this morning. They need some draft picks though, the Rams, so I guess that wouldn't be a huge surprise. Real quick, before we get into whose value is changing picks though, the Rams, so I guess that wouldn't be a huge surprise. Alright, so real quick before we get into whose value is changing the most, the fact that we've got the virus going on and

teams aren't going to be able to work with their players, well, we don't even know when it's going to happen. It's indefinite. How does that affect things, guys? Does that give you any hesitation? Heath, I'll throw to you first. In getting excited about players going to new teams when they're not going to have as much interaction with their coaching staff and presumably their teammates as they normally would?

Yeah, I mean, I think it's definitely going to be situation specific and we don't really know yet how much that time is going to be impacted. But there's certainly a situation where if we're kind of in the same type of situation 30 days from now, six weeks from now, and we don't have an idea for sure when the NFL teams are going to start practicing together, that I would be more concerned about some wide receivers and quarterbacks learning new offenses. I mean, you can learn an offense through the playbook, but you really need to be out on the field practicing as well. So it could be a point, but at this point, I'm not quite worried about it. Is anybody worried about it? You know, it's interesting because, you know,

two of the quarterbacks that move, Bridgewater's got a history with the coaching staff in New Orleans with Joe Brady. Excuse me, in Charlotte with Joe Brady, Carolina with Joe Brady. I'll get it right eventually. history with the coaching staff in new orleans with joe brady excuse me in uh in charlotte with with joe brady carolina with joe brady charlotte i'll get it right eventually um and uh rivers has a history with the coaching staff in indianapolis but brady brucerians i mean that's uh that's gonna be an interesting mix and you know we talked about yesterday he's obviously been around the block enough to uh adapt to i'm sure what terminology they'll be able to talk through

uh before it actually gets on the field but developing a rapport with two new receivers you know he he knew everything julian edelman was going to do on and off the field most likely and um you know that that could take a little bit of time he he adjusted to randy moss right away when when he joined the patriots at least my recollection as he did and same thing with wes walker um but those are things i think you have to be a little bit concerned about but right away when he joined the Patriots, at least my recollection is he did. And same thing with Wes Walker. But those are things I think you have to be a little bit concerned about. But if they're going to delay the offseason, they're probably going to delay the season. So we may not get the typical start right around Labor Day.

We may get that pushback a few weeks, depending on how this all goes. Hopefully it's not, but you never know. So that could impact a few things. But I think it's just the quarterbacks changing teams are the ones you have to be a little bit concerned about. Hey, guys. In the last 10 seasons with the Chargers, how many wide receivers had double-digit touchdown catches from Phillip Rivers?

Wide receivers. Low. Two. Low is not a number, Ben. Zero. Zero. Who said two me heath jamie uh i was gonna say two or three so i'll say three one mike williams in 2018 antonio gates did it twice mike williams once i was amazed by that vincent jackson never had 10s? Not in the last 10 years. Maybe before that. It's because he throws six or seven running backs every year. Yeah. And really, I think only one wide receiver had more than 1,200 yards. And that's where Keenan Allen's been right around 1,200

each of the last two years. But he's still Keenan Allen finishing consistently top 12 in PPR, top 14 in non-PPR. All right. So let's do value up, down, or the same. Of course, we're talking about T.Y. Hilton. I'm going to hold off on the Chargers until we see what exactly their quarterback situation is. We can get into it a little bit. They might have their quarterback situation right now until

the draft. It's very possible. We'll get into that. For this segment here, I'm envisioning it as somewhat rapid fire. If we have to get into any of these and debate it a little bit, we can, but let's start. Value up, down, or the same for Christian McCaffrey? Well, it can't go up.

Same. Same. Unless he has a holdout. DJ Moore. Same. Yeah, same or up. I think we should get into this. Is Teddy Bridgewater going to throw for 4,000 yards?

I think the bigger question is, are the Carolina Panthers going to throw 620 passes? I mean, it's probably not, but I don't think they're going to be a competitive team and the other teams in that division are going to score like 40 points a game. And so I would anticipate they're playing from behind throwing a lot. And yeah, Teddy Bridgewater, the Carolina Panthers approach 4,000 yards passing. And I think the biggest thing here is it's going to be really tough for Curtis Samuel to have his breakout.

We know what Teddy Bridgewater succeeds at. We know what we thought this offense was going to be about. Shorter throws, getting the ball in space. DJ Moore is the perfect wide receiver to do that. I just think he's definitely better than Kyle Allen, and he was just incredible with Kyle Allen. Okay, so we had one up and two the same, if I recall. Yeah, I was already really high on Moore, though.

I agree with Keith. Bridgewater, lowest average throw depth. I'm going to mention that stat a few times today, but it's just the average of how far downfield the quarterback throws it on all their throws lowest of any quarterback last year who had at least 200 drop backs and now he goes to a team that i would say has the best um like doppelgangers for alvin camara and michael thomas which are you know a really good pass catching running back which is always going to be targets closer to the line of scrimmage and a legitimate number one who catches a lot of balls near the line of scrimmage in Michael Thomas. McCaffrey and Moore are those guys in Carolina. Maybe you could say like Ekeler

and Keenan Allen are another similar combination, but this is a great fit for Teddy Bridgewater. I would say the best fit. Moore's targets are locked in now. He's going to get these types of targets. All right, cool. Curtis Samuel. Same? Same. Yeah, his value is already low, so I'll say same.

One quick note on him. He was the only player in the top 15 of total air yards last year to not have a 1,000-yard season. He only had 627 receiving yards he wasn't even close to a thousand yards because kyle allen was so bad throwing the ball down the field so even if bridgewater is a short area thrower you know when he pushes it downfield all he has to do is be better than awful at pushing it downfield and it could be better for samuel than last year okay how about uh tom brady value up down Brady? Value up, down, or the same? Up.

To the moon. To the moon. Yeah. I mean, Heath, I feel like when I read your projection story yesterday, I feel like you are higher on Brady now than you may have been when it was just a concept of maybe he could go to Tampa Bay. Did you find yourself surprisingly optimistic on him? I think that's a very good way to define it.

And it's just like the thing that gets really difficult is, again, I think Tampa Bay is probably going to throw a bunch of passes. Like it's Bruce Arian's offense. And so I don't think Tom Brady sucks. Do I think he's going to be as good for Mike Evans as Jameis was? Probably not. But if he plays 16 games in Bruce Arian's system with those weapons, he's going to be a top 12 quarterback.

It's just hard to see how he wouldn't be. Well, believe it or not, he was 12th this year. So, yeah, he should be 12th next year. And Winston was 4th. Does Brady have a lot of upside? And before you say yes, though, he is going to be

among the lowest, if not the worst. He and Rivers will probably be the lowest rushing yardage totals among quarterbacks. I mean, Brady rushes for 30 yards a year, basically. And we know that's a stat that seems to be, that's a trend among quarterbacks, obviously. But that just keeps him from being a top five guy.

I mean, he's still somewhere in the neighborhood of 8 to 12, if things go right. I mentioned on the show last year, again, the average throw depth thing. He's been under eight yards of average throw depth, which is on the low end in four of the last five seasons i mentioned that in the emergency pod yeah digging into that one season where he wasn't it's the one year brandon cooks played in new england it's the one time he had a legitimate downfield threat and he was actually up above nine yards of average throw depth more than a yard higher than each of his other four uh of his

last five seasons also in that year 2017, he led the NFL in passing yards. That was just a couple of years ago. Yeah, he was the number two quarterback. He has this passing upside with these weapons now for sure. And now you have two teams in the division that are retooling their defenses. Carolina just lost James Bradbury and Luke Keekly. We know what that team is. They're in a total rebuild mode.

You look at Atlanta, they lost Trufant and Vic Beasley, two guys that were starters for them last year, and they have a hard time staying healthy. New Orleans is going to be the one that is going to probably frustrate them, but I mean, if you were to say defensive struggle with that game, or shootout with that game, when those two teams meet each other, you'd probably lean toward shootout.

And so, I think he's going to have just in his division, six games where he has a chance to put up big numbers. Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, value up, down, or the same? Same. I'm down for Evans a little bit. I think you have to meet in the middle a little bit. Yeah, I'll go basically the same.

I don't think I moved Godwin in my rankings. His projection may have come down just a tad, but down slightly for Evans. Julian Edelman obviously down. Big down. He's in a great situation. We'll see. You know what's funny is and obviously

the circumstances are different but the fact that Brady is saying making demands to have Antonio Brown come with him and not saying go get Julian Edelman from the Patriots you could probably get him a little bit cheaper now if New England's going into rebuild mode. That, to me, is a little funny.

Is there really a scenario, Keith, you said we'll see, which quarterback could the Patriots bring in that would not be a downgrade for Edelman? Patrick Mahomes? No. Andy Dalton? Really? um no not your mom's not candy don't really i mean the the kevin's still downgrade brady and edelman it might be a little like i okay so we don't know how big the downgrade is i i didn't have edelman as high as where he finished last year i thought there was some concern with with his age and brady age. So, yeah. His injury situation is always the reason we're lower on him

than we would project him for receptions with Brady. And so that, I think, gets shoved to the forefront. Now that his production isn't as safe, we also know that he has a really hard time playing 16 games. I'm not going to draft him in a single league this year. Julian Edelman? Yeah. Okay.

Next up, value up, down to the same, O.J. Howard. Yeah, up slightly. Up slightly. Yeah. Right now, from everything that I've heard from people that have talked to Bruce Arians, you can't trust O.J. Howard. Okay. I've heard from people that have talked to Bruce Arians. You can't trust OJ Howard. Okay.

And I do wonder, you know, does Tom Brady love tight ends or did he just have the best tight end in NFL history? And also Aaron Hernandez was awesome. I was, you know, it wasn't like every tight end was great with Tom Brady. What do you,

what's your read on it? It's, it's, it's just an unfortunate situation because i think oj howard is clearly talented um you know bruce arians before he got to tampa bay made it very clear that tight end was not a priority for him in his offense as a pass catcher and he got a chance to look at oj howard before they took the field and he was like wow this guy is a physical specimen let's make him part of the offense. And it didn't work.

And so does Brady joining the team automatically change that? I hope so. I really, really do. But until you see it, you cannot draft him as a starter. He's the type of guy you take as a, I'm going to take a chance on somebody who's got a potential to be really good

if things work out. The best example, I guess. That's the only way you can draft out. The best example, I guess... That's the only way you can draft him. The best example, I guess, I think, of a non-Gronk tight end would be Martellus Bennett in 2016. He had a really good year. He had 700 yards and seven touchdowns with Gronk playing eight games. So that was impressive.

Phillip Rivers to the Colts. Value up, down, or the same? Same. Up slightly. Down. Down. Okay. Why up, Jamie, for Rivers? Much improved offensive line. You saw

in 2018 when he had better offensive line play that he was a significantly better quarterback than he was last year. So I'm hoping that protection is a big key for him. I'm not drafting him. He's not even a top 15 guy for me, but he was outside my top 24. If he stayed with the Chargers,

he's slightly inside it now, so fight upgrade. Heath, your thoughts on Rivers to the Colts? Jamie said his offense line is completely right. His weapons are just significantly worse, and he had a lot of 600 pass attempt seasons with the chargers and i don't expect they really drew back the passing game which kobe persett no they'll throw more than they did last year but i don't think we'll see him throwing near as much

as he did with the chargers and he doesn't most importantly he doesn't have a back on the roster that can do the things that austin eckler did after he dumped the ball off to him. I mean, Naheem Hines and Marlon Mack are probably going to be like six yards per target. And Eckler gave him an extra three yards every target. Does this stat surprise you? Because it's surprising the hell out of me as I'm looking at it right now. The Colts, like last year, they scaled back the passing with Brissette. But two years ago with Andrew Luck, second in the NFL in pass attempts.

That doesn't surprise me, but I don't think they'll go back there. They're super game script dependent right now, or they have been for two years now under Frank Reich, where if they trail in games, they will throw really heavily and they'll completely abandon Marlon Mack. His snap share will completely plummet that week. It's very highly variable week to week. If they lead, he'll run 28, 29 times.

I mean, they, and I like it. I think it's smart from an analytical standpoint, but I don't think teams are that heavily game script dependent as the Colts have been the last few years. They're going to add another receiver at some point in the draft. It's fairly obvious if you hear anything coming out of the Colts have been the last few years. They're going to add another receiver at some point in the draft. It's fairly obvious if you hear anything coming out of the Colts. It was a little surprising that they made the trade for DeForest Buckner because that was kind of a sweet spot for CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Judy,

maybe Ruggs if they were going to be infatuated with speed. But now that is totally out of the question. But this is such a deep receiver draft that they could find somebody on day two and still be okay. I do think this is huge for Naeem Hine. Big, big boost for him. Yeah. Yep.

And, okay, let's do two more here and we'll kind of all open up the floor to you guys and you can debate. I want to know where the controversy is, where the rankings controversies are. T.Y. Hilton, up, down, or the same? Up. T.Y. Hilton, up, down, or the same? Up. Up.

Do you think he... Where is he in your rankings? Where's Hilton? Just outside top 24. 20 for me now. 21, maybe? 20 or 21. I don't have rankings, but he's number better. I think I'm going to have him up around 20 at least. I just hope he stays healthy.

That's the biggest thing. Yeah, is that the biggest factor there? Because I feel like you could certainly make the case that if he's healthy, based on what we saw him do with Andrew Luck, based on what we've seen from Keenan Allen with Phillip Rivers, including last year, that T.Y. Hilton should be higher than 20th. More like 12th.

He played with Phillip Rivers last year? That's amazing. No, I said Keenan Allen last year. Oh, I'm sorry. Yeah, no, I was saying based on Hilton with Andrew Luck and Keenan Allen with Phillip Rivers last year? That's amazing. No, I said Keenan Allen last year. Oh, I'm sorry. Yeah, no, I was saying based on Hilton with Andrew Luck and Keenan Allen with Phillip Rivers, if T.Y. Hilton stays healthy, I would imagine he's finishing in the top 15.

Well, it still goes back to what Ben was saying about game script. It's going to be targets and how much they're going to throw the ball and how much upside they'll have. Okay. And Hilton's not, I mean, obviously you know this and hilton's not any i mean obviously you know this but he's not anywhere near the same type of receiver as keenan allen so target wise it's hard to kind of project the same i mean river still takes downfield shots right like we saw mike

williams get a ton of air yards we've seen all sorts of different receivers play that role for rivers throughout his career vincent jackson whoever um but But I think it'll be harder for Hilton to have Keenan Allen-type target numbers. Fair enough. And finally, Jack Doyle. Up, down, or the same? Up. Up just barely. Is anybody excited about Jack

Doyle? I am. He was good a couple years ago, and Eric Ebron's gone. I think Ebron had a pretty big impact on him. If they don't add another tight end, I'm pretty excited. Yeah, if we get to May and their tight end room is exactly the same, then I'll probably have Jack Doyle like 12th at tight end. As I recall, when Ebron got hurt, we were excited about Doyle because the history had been that he was a must-start guy when he would get featured.

And then he was just really useless for fantasy. The last four games of the season were just terrible for him. But Jacoby Brissett wasn't good. So, yeah, this is certainly an opportunity right now for Jack Doyle. All right, guys. So, where's the controversy? Let's get fired up here. Jack Doyle. All right, guys. Where's the controversy? Let's get fired up here.

Give me a hot take, Heath. Okay, I can do it. Okay. You may have missed the guy who, and I haven't quite settled on where I'm going to be on this, but I think the biggest loser might be DeAndre Hopkins. Ooh. Biggest loser. Yeah, this would be a better one for dave dave still loves deandre hopkins go on yeah go on i here's here's my concern it's a couple of things um one cliff kingsbury like one of the things that makes him an innovative, young, exciting mind in the NFL is the fact that he hasn't historically in college or his one year in the NFL distributed the ball in the way that NFL teams did for so long, where you're throwing it to one guy 150 times, and then maybe one other guy 100. He spreads the ball around very unpredictable,

and I would expect that. He's never had DeAndre Hopkins on his team before, so I would expect that's going to change this year. But I don't think it's realistic to expect that DeAndre Hopkins is going to get 10-plus targets per game again. The other thing is Hopkins' efficiency fell last year, and if you look at his career, he's awesome. The way he earns targets is awesome, and he's very, very talented.

But in terms of a yards per target basis, he's pretty average. He's right around eight yards per target. For guys over 100 targets per year, that's just pretty normal. And so if he's at 140 targets over 16 games, then I don't think we're going to see that elite production. And there is reason to be concerned that his touchdown totals we've seen from the past. One of the things I put on Twitter was yes, I agree. Cliff Kingsbury's offensive system is more exciting

than what they're doing in Houston. Houston was definitively good for an alpha number one wide receiver and we don't know that Arizona's is. Ben? And also, Kyler Murray's not as good of a quarterback as Deshaun Watson right now.

Yeah, right now. We'll find out how much of it was the other half. That's true. That's a great point. Could be true. Well, alright, Ben, so you seem particularly perturbed by Heath's comments. Well, not perturbed. I think that's a really good point.

And that's about spread offenses and the percentage of targets that wide receiver ones can get in those more modern open offenses. And it's been a trend for multiple years as we've seen more three wide receiver sets. The league went to really heavy 11 personnel maybe like a half decade ago is all. And we've seen smaller percentages for number ones league- as a result essentially uh so yeah i actually completely agree with all of that um i think hopkins is good enough and he's shown that he's good enough regardless of quarterback because even when watson got hurt he was still really good

with like tj yates at quarterback and things like that so um. So I agree with Heath that it might be difficult to get the same number of targets. I tend to believe that he's going to still be very productive because he's just very, very good at football. And it's tough. It's tough whenever wide receivers change teams. Like we saw Odell Beckham last year. Yeah, he was banged up. But we've seen it with a ton of receivers changing changing teams, new offenses tend to struggle in year one.

But man, DeAndre Hawkins is kind of a different beast for me. I think one thing that's interesting to see is was last year a byproduct of. Talent around him staying healthy to an extent, you know, Will Fuller from when he was healthy, Kenny Stills being on the team, and the yards per catch going down, was that the offense changed, his role potentially changing to some degree, or is this him slowing down? He's never been a fast guy in context of what fast guys are. He's one of, if not the best, at contested catches

and, you know, catches in traffic and all those things. This is going to be an interesting test. You know, is he going to go downfield more? Is he going to have, you know, more explosive plays? If that happens, then his numbers should maybe, not increase, but stay the same fantasy-wise, however that sort of matriculates. But if he's slowing down, then it's going to be a problem. He's 27.

I just don't think he's slowing down. Oh, I don't think he is. I'm just saying. When you see – we had this conversation with Antonio Brown. When yards per catch goes down, and not steep drop-off, but drop-off, you have to wonder why. And I don't know what the answer is to that. But I make this point every time we brought up Antonio Brown.

His yards per catch went down three seasons ago. 2016, it was 12.1. And it was like, uh-oh, he's getting up there in age. And then 15.2 the next year. Right. And that's my point. You want to see that. You want to see the rebound in that category

if, in fact, it was just a matter of talent around him. And now he's going to a situation where, I mean, there's still talent around him. If Christian Kirk continues to improve, whether his numbers bear that out or not, he's improving as a player. Larry Fitzgerald is still going to get numbers to what degree.

You have a good pass-catching running back. You still have a quarterback who's going to run. They should try to get Tunsell from the Texans. They probably could, like a third-round pick. No, but they obviously need to get better on offense. And this was a team that was second worst in the NFL in time of possession. And they were 22nd in plays run, plays from scrimmage. So I imagine the Cardinals sorry the cardinals

have to get better on offense second worst in time of possession and 22nd in scrimmage plays so i you know i don't know where they're going to end up ranking in scrimmage plays if their offense really clicks because maybe they'll just be a really low time of possession team by design and maybe they'll have a lot of big plays and scrimmage plays could be deceiving. But I was expecting a higher number of plays run by the Cardinals. Am I wrong in expecting that? No, they told you to expect that. Their plan was to be.

And I think some of the pace stats that only look at like the time between plays indicate that they did play faster than their total plays. They just could not maintain drives. I do think that if things go exactly the way they have them drawn up, they'll be in the top five in the league in terms of offensive plays run. The other thing is your defense has got to get off the field every once in a while. And I think their defense is probably going to be on the field a lot again this year. Um, so I,

I, I project them for an increase in the number of plays and increase in the number of passes, but I don't project them to go from below average in terms of total plays to top 10 in terms of total place. How much are you considering? So Jamie mentioned the the drop off in hopkins explosiveness and i do have kind of an answer for the why his average depth

of target last year was and i talk about air yards all the time a yard and a half lower than his previous career low he had the fewest total air yards since his rookie year so he wasn't getting downfield targets last year at nearly the same rate. So Heath, I'm wondering when you're projecting him and you said he's kind of, you know, closer to average and some efficiency stats, how much are you looking at that drop off in 2019? I'm expecting a little bit of a bounce back, but I'm not expecting an entire bounce back. I mean, when you look at DeAndre Hopkins efficiency, there are basically two years that really stand out in terms of extreme efficiency. He was over nine yards per target in 2018, which was really the first full year with

Sean Watson. And then his second year in the league, I believe with Matt Schaub, he was over nine yards per target. Every other year, he's been right around upper sevens, low eights. I think I've got him right around eight right now 8.2 something like that i actually think the bigger loser is what is watson though so jamie's moved kyler murray ahead of watson he has him fifth dave has watson fourth you have watson seventh heath and i wonder where he's gonna go jamie when's our next mock draft we're doing one next week i assume yep yeah i'm interested to see where he goes.

I don't see myself drafting him right now. Obviously, they're going to have to address the position other than Randall Cobb. But I have no faith in the Texans right now. They look like a very poorly run franchise, and having Watson

and Hopkins was enough, and obviously J.J. Watt, and it was enough and obviously JJ Watt and it was enough to you know keep them as a contender but just the arrow looks down to me for this franchise and I don't want Deshaun Watson certainly with a top five quarterback pick and uh I think I'd take I'd take Josh Allen over to Deshaun Watson bam you! You're looking at my rankings. Agreed. Same. I have it ranked the same way too. I'm not seeing that. I guess it's not updated. I don't think I'm there yet. Jamie, oh, you

have Josh Allen, Heath. Okay, fifth. And Watson seven. And Jamie, I'm seeing Watson five, Allen seven, but I'm assuming that just hasn't updated yet. Okay, cool. Well, I guess I'm not that bold after all. I think Josh Allen's the next thing that we argue about because I had him one spot ahead of Kyler Murray

before free agency opened. I still have him one spot ahead of Kyler Murray. I just put them both up five spots in my projections and rankings. But yeah, I don't know how much Josh Allen allen's going to improve as a passer but he just got one of the best wide receivers in the nfl um added to his and kyler murray didn't what's that kyler murray didn't he did no he did that's why i moved him up as well but i feel like everybody moved kyler murray up and not as many people have been talking about josh moving like josh allen being a surefire fantasy starter this year.

Yeah, he's locked in top 10 for sure. We're all pretty excited about him. He was top 10 for me before the move. Right, he was for me too, and now this definitely solidifies it. I'm not as high as you guys, though. I mean, I know we love all the rushing stats that he brings for fantasy, but he also has two of the top 10 rushing touchdown seasons from a quarterback in NFL history.

That's going to be a hard thing to do every single year of his career or continue to do even this year. Cam Newton, for instance, started his career with two seasons in the top 10 all-time rushing touchdowns for a quarterback, and then he fell off. And he's never hit those heights again in any season since. I don't think Josh Allen's going to run for eight or nine touchdowns most years. And yes, he's done it two years in a row. I still just think that's hard to expect. And like you said, I don't know that he's going to be that accurate. Again, still, I'm going to have him probably QB6, QB7, very clearly in my top 10.

But Diggs helps. This guy's never thrown for more than 270 yards in a game. We see the highlights. We see the big arm. We see downfield completions. How has he never had a 300-yard game in 29 games at the NFL level? Because he's so inconsistent from play to play. So to me, he's not a guy who has top three, top five upside.

By the way, Heath, are you still drafting John Brown in the first 10 rounds? First 10 rounds? Yeah. Probably. Okay. I don't think he's going to completely disappear. I mean, 10 rounds, that's 120 players. There's plenty of room for a top 40 wide receiver.

He's still in my top 40. Let me see the wide receivers that went last week in our draft in round 10. Let's see. Nikhil Harry, Deontay Johnson, Hunter Renfro, Alshon Jeffrey. Yeah, I would take John Brown over all of those players. Okay. How about over McCole Hardman, who went in round nine? Currently. okay how about over Nicole Hardman who went round nine currently let's see if Sammy's cut degrees to

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Pretty creepy. Go through the rest of the news and notes. It's almost Jordan Howard time. In fact, it is Jordan Howard time. All right, two years, 10 million to the Dolphins. Jamie, huge news. Break it down. I mean, he's going to be the most annoying backup

running back in football after they draft somebody. Or will it go the Miles Sanders route where he'll be the most annoying starting running back in football, Jordan Howard, and we're waiting for that rookie to get the chance to be unleashed? Probably. And you think they're going to draft someone significant, right?

The Dolphins? Well, I mean, you know, they're in the range with their third pick in the 20s to get a running back. So I would hope that that's something that they consider depending on how they handle 5 and 18 on the NFL draft. They're not going to take 1 and 5, obviously. I don't think they'll take 1 and 18 on the NFL draft. They're not going to take one at five, obviously. I don't think they'll take one at 18. But even if it's day two, you know, this is a great running back class. They have plenty of ammunition to to get somebody that they hopefully like. You know, if it's somebody who is ready to go right away, John Taylor, DeAndre Swift, you know, that's

that's going to feel a lot like the Miles Sanders situation. If it's, you know, I think Cam Akers can play right away. But, you know, somebody maybe that could take a little bit more grooming that that may take a little bit longer. But look, they were going to add a veteran regardless. This was a disaster of a backfield after they traded Kenyon Drake. Kaelin Balazs stinks. Miles Gaskin and Patrick L laird are you know not starting caliber running backs in the nfl and so they needed something you know it was either going

to be something significant like melvin gordon uh maybe davante freeman after he was let go but jordan howard from what they're looking for profiles as the type of guy who can be a placeholder until young running back is ready like he was in philadelphia you guys want to hear a crazy jordan harrod stat yeah yeah he's still just 25 right 4.3 yards per career he just had his worst season but he's played four years this is his just average line like full season line not 16 game pace this is just what he's done in four years divided by four. 224 carries per year, 974 rushing yards, seven and a half touchdowns. Like that's for a 25-year-old back with a reasonable yards per carry average. That's his four-year average. That's like really good.

Is it? 1,000 rushing yards and seven and a half touchdowns per season? Yeah, but so little passing game production. Sure. Which hurts. He's basically like you kind of need him to score most weeks. You know who Jordan Howard is. He's not an exciting option.

He's like kind of what Carlos Hyde was last year, although they started featuring him with the Eagles for three or four weeks off the top of my head. And they said, hey, we're going to give Jordan Howard the ball. And he got the ball more and he got the ball and we're going to score. If all of you remember that fun reference. And he did pretty well with it. But they're obviously going to bring someone in there.

How about, there's not really a lot of other wide receiver news. The Patriots signed Demir Bird, big. And Tom Brady apparently wants to play with Antonio Brown, according to NFL Network. That would not be good for Chris Goblin and Mike Evans, I would assume. We'll see what happens there. And the Vegas Raiders signed Jason Witten to a one-year deal.

Heath, does that affect Darren Waller? I don't think it will. I think Foster Moreau had five touchdowns as the second tight end, and he's not expected to be ready for the start of the year. I guess they're going to run a lot of two tight end sets. I saw they signed Witten, and I thought, well,

I guess they're sticking with Carr. They should. Witten can't run more than five yards downfield, and Carr doesn't throw more than five yards downfield. They're a perfect pair. There's going to be some annoying weeks with this. With Waller and Witten? Yeah.

Yeah, I'm down on Waller on this. I mean, Renfro was already cutting into his short area targets at the end of last year. When Renfro was active, Waller's target rate just plummeted late in the year. Now you're adding a second tight end with, you know, I know he's really old but he's got a track record and and waller was a one-year breakout at age 27 last year he's an old you know is he really that established the only saving grace if you can look at it is they haven't

added anything yet at the receiver position and he's a former wide receiver. So he can do, obviously, a variety of different things to help this offense. And I think he's clearly established himself as a playmaker here. So I don't think you... I don't want to speak for you, Ben, but I don't think people should get away from him as a starting fantasy tight end.

But it's now comparing him to, you know, where he was in the conversation for maybe even the third best fantasy tight end. Because of Jason Witten? Or because of Hunter Renfro and Jason? Because come on, Jason Witten on a one-year deal at the end of his career? Look, Kelsey and Kittle are established. They're the top two guys.

Three through eight is, I think, very much up for debate of the order. And so now it's nit know nitpicking like for me andrews is now clearly ahead of waller oh yeah i agree i think he's still starting tight end and adam it's a good question it's not because of jason whitten i was already i already thought his targets were precarious i thought a lot of his high target rate had to do with so few other options last year they obviously tried to bring in bring in Antonio Brown to be their target hog number one. I expect they're going to draft that type of wide receiver this year. So I was already expecting,

especially when we saw late in the year when he had a little bit more competition and Renfro started establishing himself, that that impacted Waller's ability to just rack up targets. I was already expecting Waller to not be able to maintain that high target share. But it's just everything else is adding to that so now i'm like okay i got to keep bumping it back like he's not

going to have a massive amount of targets i anticipated having this discussion about waller after the nfl draft or something but not with the addition of jason whitton that's just you know they're going to bring in somebody i just i downgraded him one spot. So in PPR I had Waller ahead of Andrews. Now I have Andrews ahead of Waller. Because I was close on them to begin with. I honestly had not I'll look

at it a little bit closer, but they threw the ball last year 44 times to Foster Moreau and Derek Carrier. There's plenty of targets. Marcel Aitman had 10 targets. There's plenty of room 44 times to Foster Moreau and Derek Carrier, there's plenty of targets. Marcel Aitman had 10 targets. There's plenty of room for a second tight end to get 50 targets in this offense.

Maybe it'll hurt Waller a little bit, I guess. Andrews is kind of interesting because 10 touchdowns on 98 targets, does that feel like sort of a lot? Especially the second half of the season i mean he had 43 targets in his last eight games he's not going to repeat the touchdown rate but i just think the expectation should be that the baltimore is going to throw at least a little bit more and he's their number one option do you think he's their number one

option or you think marquise brown elevates to that i think he's their number one option, or do you think Marquise Brown elevates to that? I think he remains their number one option this year. I think Marquise Brown, healthy, takes away from Andrews, but I also agree with Heath that they're going to throw the ball a little bit more, and I also think Andrews, remember, he battled through some injuries at the end of the season. So hopefully he's 100%, and you get closer to 120 targets. Jamie, is there any team that's significantly upgraded their offensive line,

makes you excited about the prospects and fantasy? The Jets have, just in terms of bringing guys in. But that doesn't necessarily change things for fantasy too much. Helps Le'Veon Bell. With free agent signings so far, nothing that jumps off the page otherwise. Yeah, the Jets brought back Alex Lewis, guard. They have a new center now, Connor McGovern,

and they brought in George Fant. But none of these guys are stars or anything like that. Maybe the biggest name so far has been Bulaga, the Chargers signing Brian Bulaga, who's good but getting old. Yeah, it was funny. Brady Quinn on CBS Sports HQ thought with Bulaga, and they brought somebody else back, right?

Or signed somebody else? Oh, Trey Turner. They traded for Turner, yeah. With the trade for Trey Turner. He said, he thought, well, setting up pretty well for Tom Brady to go there and have a good offensive line. Yeah. And by the way, the biggest name is Conklin. Ben and I talked about him yesterday. Cleveland

signing Jack Conklin to a three-year $42 million deal with $30 million. Yeah, I mean, that's an upgrade. I'm just talking about significant signings across the board. I would say maybe the Chargers with what they did with Turner and Balaga and the Jets. All right. So tomorrow, we'll have one more show for the week. Well,

we'll see how the news goes. Make sure you're watching HQ. I want to read an email, by the way, at fantasyfootballatcbs.com. Not done with the show, but Jamie, can you give us a little programming note for HQ? Yeah, so we're going live to sort of recap all this stuff on CBS Sports HQ, noon on Thursday, noon on Friday, noon Eastern on Thursday and Friday. So we'll be recapping

all the moves. You know, fantasy-wise, a lot of the similar conversations we've been having here, but it'll look a lot prettier because of the graphics, not because of our faces. Everybody here is pretty.

And then what we will be doing in the event of um any further shutdowns around the country uh we're going to tape some shows to recap free agency off season moves so far look ahead to the nfl draft kind of go over our rankings those shows on cbs sports hq will uh i hope never see the light of day, to be honest with you, because that means that everything is fine. But they may be airing on our network some point in the next week or so. So this guy, Travioli is his name, he wants to get us in on a little discussion he had with his friend. I started this argument with my friend about number one wide receivers,

real life number one wide receivers, not fantasy wide receivers. And how many teams need a true number one wide receivers, real life number one wide receivers, not fantasy wide receivers. And how many teams need a true number one wide receiver? I decided almost half the league needed one based on player ability and track record, not rookies or guys on their first good year like Devontae Parker. What do you think about number one wide receivers?

And what do you think about a guy like Julian Edelman? Is he a number one wide receiver or just good for fantasy? Oh, he's definitely not a number one. Such a philosophical question. Yeah, he's definitely not a number one wide receiver. That is... He's not.

Like, no. Ben with the... You know, it's kind of a nuanced thing, and people can have different opinions. No, no, definitely not. Well, no, I didn't think he meant the Edelman portion of it. The rest of it is philosophical. I think a number one receiver can play in the slot in the modern era it's a lot different we talked about these

nfls uh i don't think it's crazy at all i mean michael thomas plays out of the slot you call him a number one so i think you can make an argument he's better than edelman he's definitely better than edelman he's got more playmaking ability i'm not saying they're comparable i'm saying that just because edelman's a slot he... He plays out of the slot, but I can't imagine their slot percentages are the same. They are. Oh, they're very similar. He never lines up outside, Michael Thomas?

Edelman lines up outside sometimes. Okay. By definition, when he's standing on the last receiver on the side of the field, he's lined up outside, actually. Sure, sure. I'll ask you this, because you started the show with saying Phillip Rivers Hall of Famer is Dooling Edelman Hall of the field. He's lined up outside. I'll ask you this because you started the show with saying Phillip Rivers is a Hall of Famer. Is Doolin Elliman a Hall of Famer?

Well, you don't want to penalize him for PEDs. I think he is because his playoff performances, yeah. He's been pretty damn clutch. Comes up big. Do you think he is? I think he's going to be in the

conversation. I don't think he'll get in, but I think he'll be on the ballot. I don't think he is a number one wide receiver, though. Why? I don't know. I would say he's much more of a number...

Much more of a number one wide receiver than he is a Hall of Famer. Well, I think the playoff stuff is going to put him into the Hall of Fame, the success he's had. But he's got like 600 catches. Well, I don't know. Number one wide receiver is down. I have to update.

I lied. Edelman is in the slot about two-thirds of the time. Michael Thomas only 30% of the time. Oh, thank goodness. I felt really stupid for a while. Adam gets to be right on this one all right i needed that i needed that i was got a win there adam is elon manning in the hall of fame yes and for the same reason julian edelman is in the hall of fame i don't know julian edelman was had more good years no he had three good years. That's about the same.

Oh, jeez. People forget about how good Eli Manning was. So what do you guys think about do you need a number one wide receiver? It has not been a position. Wait, we haven't decided what a number one wide receiver is yet. Well, it hasn't been a position that has translated to Super Bowl victories.

I'll say that the Texans are going to be our best test case because what they have right now is two deep threats, two slot receivers in Cobb, who they added in QD, who they already had like eight tight ends. I mean, they still have Fells and Aikens back, but they had Jordan Thomas, who had some touchdowns back in 2018, and they drafted Kahale Warring last year, and he's going to be going into his second year. They have two of the best pass-catching running backs in the league. They have all these role players for a passing game. So they're going to be our best test. Does this impact Deshaun Watson? Because if he can play through that, then maybe they obviously just lost one of the best number ones.

Adam, is DJ Moore a number one wide receiver? I would think he's trending that way, but I would have to say the jury is still out on that. But if I had to guess, yes, he will be. Is Cortland Sutton a number one wide receiver? I also think he's trending that way. Yeah. In fact, I think I'm probably more excited about Cortland Sutton

than DJ Moore. Because he's taller? Yeah, he's more typical. I think Moore will probably put up better catches. I think there's a height requirement in your number one wide receiver. Odell Beckham's not that tall, buddy. That's true, that's true. But he jumps very high.

So it's height plus vertical has to equal a certain amount of feet and inches. Keenan Allen is the legitimate number one slot receiver. If you're not saying that Edelman is, that's probably the best guy. Yeah. And I think that Keenan... Look, okay. If I'm being honest with you,

I think that Tom Brady has made Julian Edelman. I think that's probably why I'm saying no, he's not a number one wide receiver. If he went to another team, okay, maybe now is not a great time. He's clearly at the end of his career

and he's a little beaten up. He'd still have been good. But I just think Tom Brady, as accurate as he's been, as good as he is for a guy like Edelman, I think Brady really made Edelman a star. You could say that about a lot of wide receivers, though. Well, but not Beckham.

I mean, you can't say that about Beckham. You know, like, you can't say that. Can you? We had one year of a sample size, and it wasn't good. No, we had his whole career with the Giants. You can't say that Eli Manning made Odell Beckham. You can't say that. Well, maybe you can.

Well, that's more about Baker Mayfield, then, if that's the case. You can't say that about DeAndre Hopkins with all the crap he'd played with before Sean Watson. So I don't really... I give you Hopkins. I don't give you Beckham yet. I disagree with you. I mean, I think what Beckham did with Eli Manning was pretty extraordinary, especially when you've seen all the plays of him just running slants all the time

and having to do all the work to take it himself for Yak. Obviously, Eli Manning did not turn Odell Beckham into Odell Beckham. But until we see Odell Beckham put up stats with another quarterback, you can't make that argument though. I can't make that argument. The argument is that Beckham, Beckham, the argument is that it has nothing to do with the Browns.

So Eli, Eli Manning did not make Odell Beckham. I think we can all agree on that. I hope. So does anybody have a final thought on this? Do you need a number one receiver? Do you need a true number one receiver? To be a good team? To be a great team.

Be a great team? I mean, I don't know. Does Tyreek Hill qualify as a great number one receiver? To me, he does. I think if you go back and look at not just this year, but like a lot of the Super Bowl participants in recent years, you're going to find that they didn't have that.

Well, participants for sure. San Francisco did not have one. Nobody's won with one. Who's the best wide receiver to win a Super Bowl lately? Julio Jones almost did. Who'd you say? Tyreek Hill. Oh, yeah.

Sorry. Tyreek Hill. Before this year, though, it was weird. It was like all these Diva-wide receivers were never winning Super Bowls. Tyreek's not tall, Adam. Are you sure he qualifies? He jumps really high, so he bakes up for it. But, yeah, it hasn't been a position that has translated to Super Bowl wins.

It's been kind of strange. Well, that's why Bill O'Brien made the move that he made. Take my ham sandwich and DeAndre Hopkins and give me back an old running back with bad knees and a bloated contract. Look, to me, the Texans have two of the five best wide receivers

in football, and they traded one of them. And now it's Will Fuller's time to shine. Well, okay. I'm really high on Will Fuller, but I'm going to need you to name how he's top five in the NFL. Is Will Fuller a number one wide receiver? We'll find out, but I was just kidding.

He's top five in the AFC South. I'll give him that. Is he? Yes. I think so. We know A.J. Brown is one. A.J. Brown is definitely one. And Wilfler's two. And Hilton's three.

A.J. Yeah. A.J. Chark? D.J. Chark's up there, yeah. Do you take Chark or Wilfler right now, your starting team? Chark, for sure. Yeah, probably.

I don't know. Because he's healthier. I guess I'd have to lean. So Chark, Brown, and Hilton ahead of Wilfler. Yeah, but if I'm starting a franchise, I'm taking Will Fuller over T.Y. Hilton. I don't know how much Hilton has left in the tank. How much does Will Fuller have left in the tank? He's got 10 pro bowl caliber years.

He only has like 20 career games on his knees. He'll be good at that. He's got to put heels on the tank to drag him around because one of them is broken. Yeah. I don't know that he's more injury-prone than T.Y. Hilton at this point. Well, is Will Fuller better than the receiver that Ben put on the Texans, QT? What do you mean? Well, he made it sound like he's like a pretty kid.

Isn't that how you say his name? Cutie Pie? QT! Did we settle the Will Fuller versus Kenny Stills thing yet? Oh, please. Oh, no. Get out of here. Why?

Stills might be the number one. I had a tweet thread going about it. Yeah, their efficiency is similar, but Stills has never had the type of volume Fuller has had. And Fuller continues – like Stills is more productive and more of a bit role, downfield role, and Fuller has seen more volume. It's like you just show the efficiency rates down. We've got a very limited sample size of Fuller seeing more volume. There's like a five-game or seven-game stretch maybe where he got more than five targets per game.

In my heart, I really don't think that he thinks that Kenny Stills is better than Will Fuller. I just think... Kenny Stills is very, very good. He's underrated. No, he's very good. That's the other thing. You're making a case against Fuller by comparing him to one of the most underrated players.

And so it's like, it sounds bad. I think I'm making a case for Stills. Yeah, I mean, it should be a case for Stills. As much fun as this has been, I got to go, boys. See you later. Got to go, bye. All right, everybody. We'll talk to you tomorrow with more.

I want to hear from you. So I'll be reaching out on Twitter, on Facebook, and email us or send an Apple Podcast review. Fantasy Football at CBSi.com. We'll talk to you Thursday.