Fantasy Football Today - Free Agency Day One! Travis Etienne, Mike Evans, Isaiah Likely and More. Is Bucky Irving a Loser? (03/09 Fantasy Football Podcast)
Episode Date: March 9, 2026We take you through the first day of free agency which was mostly good for Fantasy! We've got fun facts (3:30) about running backs in Kellen Moore's offenses, Malik Willis, Isaiah Likely and more. We... also give you some of the biggest winners (6:15). Is Mike Evans a winner? Is he too old!? ... Running through the headlines (12:00), we assign draft values for Travis Etienne, Ken Walker, Malik Willis, Likely, Evans and Wan'Dale Robinson. We also talk about the Falcons offense with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback and the Colts and Steelers wide receivers (25:35) ... Biggest losers (32:25) from Day One of free agency including DK Metcalf and possibly Bucky Irving. And just in case we missed anything, we run through all of the news and notes (39:00) ... Email us at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Shop our store: shop.cbssports.com/fantasy SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 FOLLOW FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 SUBSCRIBE to FFT DFS on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dfs/id1579415837 To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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This is Fantasy Football today from CBS Sports.
What a play!
It's time to dominate your fantasy league.
Off to the races, and he stays on his feet.
Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.
Hey to be covering fantasy football.
Welcome to the show, everybody.
This is Fantasy Football today.
We're all here, Adam, Dave, Jamie Heath.
Some of the headlines, Travis Eton to the Saints.
Ken Walker to the Chiefs.
Malik Willis to the Dolphins, Mike Evans, to the Niners.
Isaiah likely to the giants and there will be more and we will be on the air every day this week
at least, you know, until the news slows down.
Who, Dave, I got to catch my breath.
What a day this has been.
It's busy and there's more to come.
It's exciting.
And this is part of the reason why everybody should pay attention to fantasy football year
around to start thinking about the players where they're going, the fits, the positives,
the negatives.
and you start thinking about what it means for their draft value,
who's an RB2 or maybe even an RB1,
who's a wide receiver 3,
who could be a wide receiver 2.
This is where you think this out.
You don't want to wait until the day before your draft to think about it.
You'll be behind everybody else in your league.
So I'm glad that we're here,
and I'm glad that everybody's here watching with us.
Jamie, what's going on?
We missed you on the Ken Walker breaking news.
Anyway, how you feeling about,
today's events.
It's exciting.
I think you got some good landing spots.
Obviously, Ken Walker, the Chiefs is good.
Isaiah Lackley of the Giants, I think, is a good spot.
Hopefully, Travis E.N. to the Saints will be good if they make a second move.
I like the fact that Alec Pierce got his deal, and they also traded Michael Pitten.
I think that's encouraging as well.
So there's a lot of things that work that well, try.
Yeah.
It's kind of like what we're saying, Heath, about the Bears' bills trade.
It was good for everyone, basically.
Yeah, it's been, I think, a pretty positive day so far, right?
Yes, a positive day that seems to impact the RB2,
wide receiver 2 landscape and RB3 and Wide Receiver 3 landscape more than it does the top of the rankings.
Okay, so here are some fun facts.
So Kellan Moore just signed Travis E.TN.
Kellyn Moore's been an offensive coordinator or a head coach for seven seasons.
In six of those seasons, his running back, his top running back has finished no worse than 20th per game.
The only exception was last year with the Saints.
Three times, Kalamores had a top 10 running back per game in PPR.
Twice he's had a top five running back, Ezekiel Elliott and Saquan Barclay.
Fun fact from the bonus podcast we did earlier today,
the Chiefs have gone eight straight seasons without a running back eclipsing 205 carries.
We're going to take the over for Ken Walker.
Here's a fun fact.
the new Raiders wide receiver Jalen Naylor
has 1,066 yards and 11 touchdowns in four seasons.
And now he has $23 million guaranteed.
What?
What?
That was the one.
I think Heath, that was deciding that knocked my socks right off.
It blew my mind.
But like, the Alec Pierce contract kind of blows my mind, too.
I just think we see with these the wide receiver market is insanity and yes yes the nailer when I think
nail is a pretty good player um but it just seems weird which I guess if you were somebody that
hadn't been in the fantasy football or football world for the last three months you could probably
look at Malik Willis's career stats and contract and make the same observation that you did about
Naylor. It's a guy that's made six starts and never thrown more than 23 passes in a game and
he just got $45 million guaranteed. Yeah, but did you know that he's he's averaged 10.9 yards
per attempt on his 89 pass attempts with Green Bay, which is by far the best mark in the NFL.
That's another fun fact. And here's my last one. We'll get to winners and losers. There have been 40
tight ends with 100 targets or more over the last three.
seasons of those 40 tight ends, Isaiah likely ranks third in yards per target, third in yards
per catch, sixth in explosive play rate, and he is on the New York Giants.
Haza!
Okay, biggest winner.
Yeah, go ahead.
No, I just wanted to defend Jalen Naylor because I think you can do the same thing with
his stats that you did with Malik Gilles.
Yeah.
He's averaging 15 yards per catch and scored once every 10 targets in the NFL.
I mean, I couldn't believe that signing, but hey, maybe they're on to something.
You're not good for Jack Besh.
Anywho, biggest winners, biggest losers, Jamie, give me a winner.
Cam Scataboo.
That's where we're going.
We're going Cam Scataboo.
Giants were apparently in on Ken Walker,
so they may still upgrade a running back,
but yeah, that's one.
They're not getting easy in.
They just signed a linebacker,
and several teams around them that might have taken Jeremiah Love
are no longer going to.
So we'll see.
We're just talking about today.
six weeks.
But for today,
Cam Scada was a winner.
All right, Dave, who's a winner?
I'll go along those same lines
and say Basial Tutin is a winner.
Heath, who's a winner?
Yeah, I mean, we'll go with
kind of like the both of them,
Emeka Book as a winner.
Is Mike Evans a winner?
This one's pretty cool.
I mean, you got
Hall of Fame wide receiver
deciding to go to San Francisco,
wasn't a money thing, according to his agent.
He just wanted a new challenge in his life.
Goes to the Niners who obviously need past catchers.
We don't know what the rest of their receiving core is going to look like here.
But this pretty cool, Heath, is Mike Evans a winner?
I think any time that a 33-year-old wide receiver who missed half of last year
goes to a team that can't keep anyone healthy and exists next to some sort of substation
that causes injuries, we'd be really excited.
I agree with you, it's cool.
I'm hopeful for him.
I think it's good for Brock Purdy.
I'm probably not going to have him ranked very high.
Who do you guys like better?
Chris Godwin, who I think is an underrated winner here.
Yes.
You know, look, last year was really bad.
He was coming off a serious injury.
He's shown that in the past that sometimes just be patient with him.
Get him in the right role.
Put him in the slot.
Chris Godwin or Mike Evans, Jamie?
They'll probably be close.
I'm going to go Evans slightly over Godwin, but they're close.
Same.
Evans over Godwin.
But neither one of them are top 24 receivers.
Agreed.
All right.
What's the beef with Evans here?
It's just his age.
Look at him.
He's old.
He's so old.
Even when he was healthy last year,
he wasn't quite Mike Evans.
He didn't,
he had one game all year with more than 60 yards.
That's true.
His yards,
every efficiency metric was a career low.
Yeah.
Yeah, he'll be 33 years old in August,
Mike Evans.
Now he had two injuries last year.
One of them was a soft tissue injury.
It was a hamstring injury in week three.
The other one was a broken collarbone.
I don't know that's one of those.
Oh, he's so old.
Even his collarbone is breaking, like a hip.
I think the positive would be is that Ricky Pearsall can't stay healthy and George Kittles coming off in Achilles' tear.
And if Pearsall, for whatever reason, can't start the season.
And Mike Evans is going to be force-fed targets.
Then you've got to love the situation.
But how long will that be sustainable?
Because Kittle will come back at some point.
Pierceaw will play at some point.
McCaffrey obviously is still going strong right now,
but this is, look, they're going all in with a very old roster right now.
You could very easily see Mike Evans get off to a superstar
where he's a top 12 receiver to begin the year,
and then injuries or somebody else stepping up in San Francisco
starts to knock him down a couple of pegs.
But as far as, like, landing spots go,
like being in this type of offense where precise route running is
important and being a big guy.
This is who's replacing Joanne Jennings.
I love that part of it for Mike Evans.
I'm just worried about how effective he'll be.
I think he's talked about it.
And we all know that he's got a bunch of injuries in his past.
That's the soft tissue ones that worry me the most.
I also feel like there's probably another shoe to drop at wide receiver for the 49ers.
They still need a guy or two.
And it'll be interesting to see what kind of guy that is because Pearsall's been the
downfield guy.
the high ad dot guy in San Francisco,
which, as we know, is what Evans does.
So it would be interesting to see if they go get a lower AD guy
or if they're going to use Pearsall in a different way.
Okay.
And I just want to give you guys a list of wide receivers
who averaged at least 13 PPR fantasy points per game
at age 33 or older.
No, just at age 33.
Antonio Brown.
Antonio Brown was coming off a season where he played seven games.
he was wide receiver 39 in average draft position in his age 33 year and he was awesome.
Now, actually, he only played seven games that year.
He was coming off an eight game season just like Mike Evans.
He only played seven games, but he was awesome in those seven games.
Terrell Owens had a monster year with 13 touchdowns at age 33.
Marvin Harrison was awesome at age 33 and age 34.
By the way, Owens was also great at 34 and solid at age 35.
Chris Carter was really good for ages 33, 34, and 35.
Julian Edelman had his last good season at age 33.
Jimmy Smith.
Jimmy Smith averaged 13 or more PPR fantasy points per game at ages 33, 34, and 35, and 36.
Steve Smith was good at 33, bad at 34, bounced back with a really good year at 35, and
then was amazing.
Steve Smith averaged 18.7 points per game at age 36, but he only played seven games.
Of course, Jerry Rice was amazing at age 33 as well.
Reggie Wayne was terrible at age 33, and then great at age 34.
I want to just point out, great receivers can be good at age 33.
They can be great at age 33.
So that's just a little hope for you for Mike Evans and beyond, by the way, even after 33.
All right, so here's what I want to do.
I want to go through the, you guys tell me if I'm missing anything here, but the big headlines from today.
And just get your...
Got another one.
What did we get?
Tua to the Falcons.
Okay, we'll throw that one in there, Tua.
And...
Lower to Atlanta.
Type it in there.
Want to get Wondale.
Haven't talked about him yet.
Okay.
So let's give it a little bit of a grade for that specific player.
Okay.
And no, you know what?
Tell me what round you're taking that specific player.
Let's do that.
Okay.
Travis E.N.
To the Saints.
What round?
Round four right now.
And like early around four.
That will change maybe by two rounds if Camaro's release.
And by the way, we're talking 12-team PPR here.
Ken Walker to the Chiefs.
Two.
Three.
This is round.
This is not excitement o' meter.
This is what round?
Well, it could be excitement ometer on a scale of one to four.
But that's not what you asked.
Camara were released.
Who were you taking first?
ETN or Walker.
Walker?
Yeah.
Okay.
Malik Willis to Miami.
Does he get drafted?
in a 12 team one quarterback league?
Yes. He should.
Okay. Jalen Waddle, give me a round.
Six.
I was going to say five. I'd be a little more
optimistic. It's a tough one, huh?
It is a tough one. You like Waddle
or Evans? Waddle.
Jalen Waddle or Abuka.
A mecca. Ake.
A mecca, Buka.
Okay, how about
two at Tsunga by Loa to the Falcons?
No, I would not draft
Tuatung about it.
What round for Drake London or any change for Drake London?
He was an early round two pick in our drafts.
I think this is a win for him.
Yep.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yes.
And for Pitts,
they get Austin Hooper.
Heath,
did that kill your buzz at all with Kyle Pitts?
Did not kill my buzz.
I think we've got London at the one two turn.
And I'm the wrong person to ask about Pitts because my answer is going to be around
earlier than whatever it.
Dave and Jamie establish.
One.
Okay.
Where are we here?
Isaiah likely to the Giants.
Is he going to be a top 12 tight end?
100%.
Oh, okay.
Isaiah,
okay,
is he top 10 tight end?
Yes.
Yes.
He'll get drafted that way,
but like maybe right at 10.
Has Adam's face frozen for anybody else?
Me too.
Yeah,
I didn't know if it was my connection or his.
Okay.
Oh, yeah.
Yeah, yeah, he's frozen.
Good.
Can you hear me at least?
Yeah, 100%.
It's been going on for at least the last five minutes.
It's some weird stuff, dude.
What's going on over there?
I don't really know what to do about this.
All right, I'm going to turn my camera off and see if that helps.
You guys talk about Isaiah likely and your expectations.
Actually, why don't we take a quick break?
We'll take a break and come back and talk about Isaiah likely.
Go into the New York Giants.
Daniel Bellinger, by the way, one of their tight ends going to the Tennessee Titans.
We'll be right back.
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business. Can you hear me? Oh, good. We don't have a host. You can hear me, that way? Adam has
left our live stream.
I'm back.
It's left us to talk about Isaiah.
Like I looked into Likely for the site.
I don't mind sharing what I've discovered and how I feel about it.
And then you guys can disagree with me.
Obviously, I love his potential in New York.
He could be the number two target getter there.
The thing that kind of sticks in my craw a little bit is John Harbaugh had this guy on
his team for four years in Baltimore.
And he rarely had huge games.
We all remember the huge game he had in 20.
24 to start the season, it was double-digit targets, nine catches, over 100 yards, he scored,
and then he stunk the three games after, and he never really, he did nothing more than like flash a
couple times. So what's to lead us to believe that Isaiah likely will get a slew of targets now
with the Giants when John Harbaugh didn't let him have that type of work for four years in
Baltimore?
B.O. Johnson is not Mark Andrews.
he's not that's true
but malik neighbors is not zay flowers
I don't think we know what this giant's office is going to look like
I mean we haven't seen dart with neighbors
we don't know what the draft is going to bring
because Cardinal Tate could easily be their choice
or another receiver at some point in the draft that's the prominence
they're losing Wando Robinson which is a big
target and favorite weapon for jackson dart
so that's another guy they have to replace
and so I think just in the grand scheme of things
of what you're looking at the fact that
you're right Dave Harbaugh obviously was the head coach of this what we assumed to be as a very talented player and we've seen flashes of him with that talent and with that potential not necessarily allowing that to flourish to his point. Mark Andrews is pretty talented guy himself. I think just the fact that this is where he went. He followed his head coach. His head coach obviously I'm sure advocated for him to be there. There was a need essentially because Theo Johnson's a good player but this is a most likely no pun intended better player. You know, so.
The hope would be is that he gets this opportunity, gets his role,
gets with this new quarterback, and everything sort of falls in line.
So I think as long as no first round wide receivers drafted,
and there is the chance for him to be second on the team and targets,
you should gravitate toward him as the low end number one tight end.
Like when Adam was asking the question, the first name that came to mind,
there's obviously another guy that's in the news today is Travis Kelsey,
who finished ninth in points per game in PPR last season.
Third and total points at tight end can likely be better than,
basically 12 PPR points per game,
be in that range of 11 to 12 PPR points per game.
I think he can.
So I would rather take Isaiah likely
than Travis Kelsey right now.
Agreed.
You guys got me?
Yeah, we hear it.
You're so frozen, though.
You look like Scooby-Doo.
I do not.
I'm not frozen.
No, you're not.
You jerk.
Isaiah likely played weeks 12 through 18 in 2023
without Mark Andrews.
He averaged 13.9 p.pr.
Fantasy points in those games.
And then he played the divisional round
without Mark Andrews in the playoffs,
and he had a touchdown on three targets,
two catches, 34 yards, and a touchdowns.
That was 11.4 fantasy points.
So that's pretty good.
That was with Lamar Jackson in all but one of those games.
And then we have Wando, oh, we have Mike Evans.
Mike Evans give me a round.
I froze again, didn't I?
What's going on?
No, you're moving now.
All right, whatever.
It is what it is.
Mike Evans, what did you say, round six, something like that?
Seven, six.
I'd say six.
Wondale Robinson to the Titans.
Same.
Love the fact that he followed Daibel, you know, so that's encouraging.
I love the fact that the receiving corps is basically non-existent, for the most part.
There's no real, you know, significant threat for targets to keep him off the field as of now.
But which one, which version of Wondell Robinson are we going to get?
The guy that when he's gotten opportunities to be sort of the lead guy has taken advantage of it and done great.
or is he going to sort of, you know, take some time to get his footing and be more of, I think,
what probably the perception of him is.
So I would rather have Evans, but not far behind.
Robinson will be not far behind.
I'd rather have Robinson.
I'm encouraged by what we saw from him last year when he had an opportunity to play.
I think we have to call him a wide receiver one for his team because of the target share that he had.
It was huge.
And I don't think Calvin Ridley is going to be a big factor there.
I don't think any of the rookie now second year players in that passing game are going to be there.
And I don't know if Tennessee is going to necessarily make a splash of wide receiver.
Obviously, if they do, that'll knock down my excitement for Robinson as well.
But short area to downfield target, he can do both of those things.
He proved that last year.
That was the difference between Wondale in 2025 and Wondale in 2024.
He didn't really get those chances, didn't have nearly as many end zone chances,
had a lot of drops in 2024 as well.
He fixed that in 2025.
And Cam Ward, we saw it toward the end of the year.
He made some progress as a quarterback.
He's really good at keeping plays alive.
Robinson is really good at finding ways to get open when things break down.
And there were a couple of plays that benefited him with Jackson Dart and the Giants last year.
I'm encouraged by Wondale in full PPR.
I think he could end up being drafted outside of the top 24 and finish well inside the top
24 on a per game basis, assuming that this is how the Titans' offense looks.
And don't forget, Titans defense, I know they added some players.
I don't expect it to be that much better.
So there's going to be a lot of high volume passing days ahead for Cam Ward and the Titans.
I like the improved offense and the scheme.
And Robinson obviously knows it because Brian Dayball was his coach the last couple of years,
if not the last four years, pretty much the last four years.
So I'm in on Robinson and I do like him better than Evans.
I agree.
No, no, no, no, no.
You've always added Ronald Robinson.
I mean, come on, he's Wondell Robinson.
He's like, he had 140 targets turned into a thousand yards and four touchdowns.
Wondell Robinson has nine touchdowns in his career.
He has nine touchdowns as a career.
Mike Evans is going to fall.
That's why I'm not loving him in non-people.
He's going to fall into nine touchdowns if he stays healthy.
Mike Evans is a far superior player.
Wondell Robinson is limited.
You said that he showed that he can, he can, you know, be a downfield guy.
I mean, they finally used him.
It was like he was so great with the downfield targets.
It's not like he's going up,
making contested catches.
He's five foot nine.
So basically, like, remember that 39,
he had a 39-yard touchdown catch on a flea flicker
against the lions from James Winston, right?
So he had a play where he was wide open for,
I think, 34 yards against the pathetic cowboys
with Russell Wilson in week two.
When he made big plays, he was usually wide open downfield.
I went back, I watched all of the deep balls to him.
And I'm not saying, it's such a terrible thing for a wide receiver to be wide open.
I'm just saying he's not a playmaker.
He's not ripping the ball away from defense.
of backs. He doesn't do a lot with yak, which is surprising because his A-DOT has been so low.
Last year, it was just low, not so low. He's just... He needs targets. He just needs a
He just needs targets. He's got 140 targets two years. He was last in yards per target,
two years in a row. He's just like... He's not getting 140 targets with the Titans.
Right. Yeah, and he needs it. So... I don't get 130. I think he, I would not be surprised if he got
to 140 with the Titans. All right. My last point on Wondale. He had 140 targets with the Giants.
And he averaged 13.6 PPR fantasy points per game.
That made him wide receiver 17 last year.
In the five years before that, it would have made him wide receiver 32, 30, 22, 24, and 31.
If his ceiling seems to be like wide receiver 22, I basically feel like he's Christian Kirk.
I'm going to take Mike Evans over Christian Kirk.
Yeah, he might be better than Evans, but he does not have any league winning potential, in my opinion.
What?
Yeah.
No, there's nothing.
I mean, you could have just replayed.
played what you said like six months ago about Wando
Robinson. I don't even know what I said, but I must have said it.
It was very, very similar in the middle of the season.
And then what happened after that, Heath?
Oh, Wando Robinson was awesome.
No, he was not.
By the way, I went, I looked up.
You want to know what he did without neighbors last year?
Like a true sample?
The whole year was without neighbors.
He was 14.2 PPR points per game.
That's pretty good.
That is good, yes.
Out of nowhere, fourth year breakouts in the last 15 seasons.
I do think Christian Kirk would qualify.
Michael Crabtree would qualify.
He went on and had some solid years.
Brian Hartline, Randall Cobb, believe it or not,
never really was that good after his fourth year breakout.
The best of the best was Jordy Nelson.
Jordan Nelson did almost nothing for three years.
And then in his fourth year, he was 68 catches,
1,263 yards, 15 touch.
touchdowns on 96 targets, and then he was just the man after that.
But for the most part, these fourth year breakouts, like, they're not, and think about it
for Alec Pierce, too, guys.
They're not, you know, usually able to replicate and they're not able to sustain.
I don't think anybody's arguing that Juan Dale Robinson is about to become a top 12 wide receiver.
I wouldn't even argue he's about to become a top 18 wide receiver.
Put it in Alec Pierce's perspective, then.
I would call Pierce a...
I don't think he is either.
Pierce got, this is, let's talk about this situation.
situation here with the Colts signing Pierce.
How do you keep freezing in the same spot?
That's just my face, I guess.
The Pierce signing with the Colts, four years, $116 million.
They put the transition tag on Daniel Jones, so he'll probably be their quarterback.
And then they traded Michael Pittman to the Steelers who gave him a three-year $59 million deal.
Is Jamie, is Pittman the biggest loser today?
Yeah, it's pretty bad, especially not knowing who the Steelers quarterback is going to be.
You know, you can make a case.
Maybe Bucky Irving's a bigger loser.
But I think just in the case of Pitman, like he was bad last year.
He was, you know, slightly better in 2024, but bad each of the last two seasons.
And now he goes to where he's most likely the second best receiver on his team.
That's not exactly the most encouraging situation.
I do think Mike McCarthy being there will help the passing attack across the board.
No matter who the quarterback is, it seems like it's going to be Aaron Rodgers once again, but we'll see.
but in the case of Pittman,
you're talking about double-digit round guy at this point.
There's just not a lot to love the situation for him.
He can still emerge as a number three fantasy receiver,
but when you're looking at Evans and Robinson and Pierce,
and I take him over Jalen Naylor,
but the guys who have signed so far,
or change teams so far at least,
this is a pretty bad situation for Michael Pittman's fantasy value.
So I think in the case of Pierce,
you know, it's encouraging that they give him this,
mega deal, you know, four years, $114 million, you know, break the bank.
And then they decide immediately to, they were going to move on from Pittman or restructure
his deal, but they immediately in the same day make the trade and get him off the team.
So Pierce had four games last year with seven plus targets.
In those four games, he scored at least 13 ppr points in all of them.
Two of them, he was over 24 PPR points.
Pittman averaged six and a half targets per game last year.
Pierce was at five point six.
So you assume there's probably at least a one to two target per game bump.
With this move, the biggest thing, though, is is Daniel Jones coming back in at 100% and which version of Daniel Jones will we get?
And is Alec Pierce going to take that big leap in targets?
Because 85 targets last year in 15 games isn't going to, I think, make him sustainable as a consistent number two wide receiver.
So to me, he's a borderline guy.
I think that round five to six range is probably appropriate for him.
Again, looking at the moves that they made today, big contract, trading pitman.
And it speaks to, I think, him hopefully taking a big step forward in all of his, you know, route running, you know, expanding his tree and allowing him to get more opportunities.
So, you know, there's a big if.
But to Adam's point, you know, is he going to take that step forward of just being a deep threat?
Two years in a row, 21 point, whatever it was, yards per game, over 22 yards per catch this year, 22 yards per catch last year.
like can he do more, will he be able to do more?
I think the moves today speak to that.
So you had Evans over Wondale, Jamie?
I have Evans slightly over Wondell, yeah.
Where do you have Pierce in relation to?
Pierce right now slightly over both.
Okay.
Heath, Pierce, Robinson, Evans?
I think that, I mean, they're all,
they're close enough to where I wouldn't argue that strong for any of them at this point.
They're all low-in number three wide receivers.
And I had Pierce at the top, then Wondale and then Evans.
I think the biggest question I have with Pittman.
and leaving is what percentage of those targets go to Pierce versus Downs.
Like, I almost think that Pittman leaving, I don't like downs as much as I like Pierce,
but I think Pittman leaving might be a bigger boost for Downs than it is for Pierce.
And we could finally see some of his talent.
You think there's anything there for Tyler Warren too?
Yeah.
Yeah.
I think it's a win for all of these guys because you're removing a guy that had 111 targets
off the team and has been, you know, essentially their alpha, you know, since he's sort of emerged
in year two. It's just a matter of, I agree with you, Heath. I think this is one of those things,
like we're going to get a lot of training camp stories about Alec Pierce is doing this, Alec Pierce is
doing that. But Josh Downs is making a lot of plays. There's always going to be a butt attached
to whatever Alec Pierce is doing. And it's going to be probably Downs, I'm sure, a little bit of
Warren. I'm sure whatever else they do to fill out the receiving core, because unless Pierce,
in my opinion, gets like a 40 target boost.
I don't know what you haven't projected for.
So he's got a goal, I think, from 85 targets to about 125,
at least in the 120 range, to be considered a number two receiver
because he's not going to average this yards per catch
if he's getting more opportunities.
Everything's going to change for him.
But that's why I think they did this.
It's to allow him to sort of take that next step
and see what he can offer as that number one guy.
Okay.
A pretty good rule of thumb is seven targets per game.
The guys who emerge from the round six or later range, pretty much anyone.
Usually the good ones average seven targets per game, which is 119 targets per 17 games.
Just to give a little love to Josh Downs.
The guy just doesn't play that much, but his target per out run rate has been really good,
really good two straight years, at least good three straight years.
and, you know, when he has actually run 80% or more of the routes,
Josh Downs has been pretty productive.
For those of you watching, I do have to apologize.
I'm having issues with my camera, so you're just going to be hearing from me.
But, you know, Downs is a guy that could certainly be a sneaky winner here, as we've talked about.
Can I give you a stat on Downs?
Yeah, go ahead.
And then I want to talk about D.K. Metcalfe real quick.
And then I want to move on to the rest.
I'll be quick.
7.6 targets per game for him in 2024.
and he average 13.1 ppr points per game.
He is a low-key winner for sure.
Anybody considering moving Tyler Warren ahead of Loveland or Fannin?
Fanon.
Not yet.
Not yet.
Okay.
Wow, Heath over Fanon.
Considering it.
I mean, I think honestly, especially with like Kelsey back and likely in a seemingly good situation,
I'm just moving more towards, I'm probably not going to end up drafting as much of those rookies
because there's going to be guys three to four or five rounds later that I think have similar profiles.
Okay. Are there any other big losers that you guys wanted to talk about?
Is Metcalfe also a loser?
Maybe a little, but he was, like, I think he's still a number three wide receiver like he was.
I think after, it's such a bad season for Metcalf and I actually think he was wider, yeah,
he was wide receiver 24 per game, unbelievable, with 20.
12 and a half PPR fantasy points per game, which is really not that good.
That's usually wide receiver 36 per game.
And he was 24th last year.
Yeah.
And he had trouble with targets.
He had trouble with targets.
And now he's got Michael Pittman with him.
I think McCarthy will help this team.
He'll help this passing attack.
But you're still talking about a 42-year-old quarterback.
You're talking about now snaving a competition for targets.
It's just not ideal.
Does the pace of play change for Pittsburgh?
I would guess so.
more up tempo
slightly
it's not like
it helps Rogers
throw the ball a little bit more
yeah Rogers can throw the ball a little bit more
yeah but the thing is Rogers
loves to let the play clock run down
he's not going to change his approach
with a coach who knows him
who has success with him
I mean it's not like McCarthy
just come in and St. Aaron you know I know
hey listen you're going to do this
you know it's it's going to be a lot of the same
things that they did at the end of their Green Bay tenure
for better or worse okay
so then probably not a big pace of play chain
no but I think just better overall
because just better play caller.
Well, how about this?
They got rid of the guy that had a ton of targets
in that offense last year,
and now Pittman's there.
Bye-bye Kenny Gainwell.
Hello, Michael Pittman.
Maybe that opens up some more further downfield throws for the Steelers.
Well, they'll have a lot fewer tight-in targets, too,
with Arthur Smith out there and John Ogun.
There you go.
Yeah, and Pittman's always kind of,
he's kind of morphed into this role
where he's more tight end than wide receiver anyway.
So is Bucky,
Jamie, I think you kind of mentioned
Bucky Irving earlier.
Kenneth Gainwell going to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Is Bucky Irving a loser?
Slightly.
I mean, you know,
there's not going to have a big role in the passing game.
You know,
so I can't imagine they bring in Gainwell
to not have somewhat of a role
carrying the ball as well,
you know,
coming off the year that you just had
where he was so successful.
So look, it's,
it's probably, you know,
if you're looking at the totality
of what Bucky Irving went through last year
versus what he's looking at this year,
he loses the guy
who is taking him off the field for goal line touches
and Sean Tucker being gone.
So he maybe gets that roll back, which will help.
But now the upside of what he was as a pass catcher,
I'm going to guess, you know,
Zach Robinson's still going to throw to him on first and second down,
you know, given those chances.
But in any up-top on situation and any third-down situation,
most likely Kenneth Gamow is going to be on the field.
So it's just one of those things where I think Bucky is lost a little bit
because of the role in the passing game,
gain slightly because of the touchdown potential.
And hopefully the offense as a whole is just,
just a little bit better.
But I think just, you know, if you're giving him a category,
I think I'd put him in the loser category just because of Gainwell's presence.
How far do you think he falls on the running back rank list?
He won't fall far for me.
I mean, at this point, if you tell me, Camaro's gone, I'd rather VTN.
I'd definitely rather have a walker.
Yeah.
I might have had, Bucky maybe a little bit too high, but he was like around 13 or 14 for me already.
So now he's probably closer to 20 for you.
No.
Probably like 16, 17 there, range.
Right at 20 for me.
Okay.
Like, I love that value because I know what his upside is too,
and I don't think we should forget about those first four games
where he was averaging, what was he,
22 and a half touches per game,
4.8 targets per game.
I don't think we can expect 4.8 and 18 ppr points per game.
And that's rich.
If I can get that at RB20 in my draft,
I'm going to take that chance if he's there.
and that's going to end up being round four-ish,
maybe round five, maybe if we're lucky.
Do the Cardinals have a new quarterback now?
Cardinals have their quarterback.
Gardner Minshu, we'll see.
Not one you can say, oh, he's going to start 17 games for them, that's for sure.
Here's the thing about Bucky Irving.
He has 77 catches in two seasons in his career.
Five of them have come on third down.
So really, he could have a nice season
if he gets the first and second.
down targets. Now, Jamie, you mentioned
the two-minute drill. Eight of his catches last
year alone did come in the two-minute drill.
So that is something that I think
Gainwell could hurt him.
I got a question for you to ponder here as
we go to break. How surprised would
you be, based on the rosters
right now, if Jalen Warren
outscored Bucky Irving,
you tell me, when
we come back on fantasy football
today, we'll be right back.
Heath, how's
going to surprise you with this one here. How
surprise would you be if Jalen Warren,
Kenneth game won now on the bucks, outscored
Bucky Irving next year in PPR.
I would not be surprised.
Jamie, how surprised?
I'm not going to do it again. How surprised would you be, Jamie?
If Warren is better than Bucky Irving? Yeah.
I would not be surprised. Dave.
I would also not be that surprised.
Should have done the surprise to a meter.
It's too late now. Can't do it. My face would not freeze.
Okay.
Let's pick up the scraps here.
So news and notes, the dolphin sign Malik Willis,
three years, $67.5 million, with $45 million,
guaranteed.
Willis was sensational in the two games where he actually got extended playing time
for the Green Bay Packers.
Okay, you said he'd be drafted in a one-quarterback league?
Is he going to be in the top 12 for anybody, Malik Willis?
Just outside.
I had him 13 in my first run of projections.
I'd say he'll be somewhere between that and 15.
Who are you taking Willis over?
Goff, would you take him over Goff?
I would take him over Goff.
I would take him over Purdy right now.
Baker.
Baker.
Okay.
It's interesting to take him over Purdy when Purdy just got Mike Evans.
Well, I mean, Pretty also doesn't have everybody else along with Mike Evans.
I'd still go Purdy.
if Trent Williams leaves too forget it
that's fair
okay
I think it all comes down to
if he's probably going to be the quarterback
that remember how some of us
talked about Justin Fields last year
that nobody has his kind of upside
when he's on his game and you can get him
in the double digit rounds and
can't call a guy out of that a bus if he doesn't end up
doing well because you're taking him
with such a late round pick I think
Willis I don't think he's the same type of
player is Justin Fields. I think he can actually read a coverage. But I think that he's in that
type of description for fantasy where the downside is who gives a damn. It's around 10. You're
shooting for upside anyway. And he could end up being a top five quarterback in fantasy if everything
breaks right. I'll, I'll tell you this much right now. I'm taking him over Patrick Holmes.
Yeah. Oh, wow. But you know, he's barely played.
his knees work as far as I know well
Mahomes knees are going to work you know
all right
I think I think fantasy drafts this year will be so rich
in late round quarterback value
oh I mean you said every year yeah but this year
it feels even more and people are going to be able to just sit back
and wait and wait and they might even take two of these guys
and I think Willis will be one of the first names that they take
so no I would not be surprised if Willis went ahead of
Mahomes.
As silly as that sound.
No, I get it.
The Ravens re-signed Tyler Huntley.
The Cardinals signed Gardner Minchew that just happened or they're going to sign Gardner Minchew.
Should we react to that or should we wait and see what else they do?
The Raiders released Geno Smith.
Also, their preference apparently is, according to multiple reports, is to not start Fernando Mendoza immediately.
So we'll see which they bought by the way, they upgraded an offensive line.
time we'll get to that. We'll see which veteran quarterback
Raiders land with, yeah, maybe.
Washington re-signed Marcus Marietta.
All right, at running back, the Saints
signed Travis E.TN to a four-year
$52 million deal. They also restructured
Alvin Camara's contract.
And I have to sneeze. Heath, what do you think about
Kellan Moore and the
target volume for running backs, which you
highlighted so appropriately last year?
Yeah, it was
very low for the Saints
last year. Historically speaking, when
a new running back
gets to Kellynne Moore or Kellynne Moore gets to them,
depending on which direction the movement's happening,
they see about a 20% decrease in their targets per game.
That happened with all those running backs who have been good
were less involved in the passing game than they were before he got there.
So I think the key for me with ETN will be is Camara gone.
If they're just going to eat the money and they're able to get out,
let him go, then ETN is a top 18 running back who's probably taken in round three.
If they're not, then he's probably a round four pick.
They got him to restructure, right?
He did restructure.
But they said the restructure made it easier if he wasn't on the team this year.
I think right now they'd have to eat $3 million, if I'm not mistaken.
So they already eat most of it?
Yeah.
Okay.
Now, ideally, you send him to a team, I mean, maybe he goes.
Jacksonville.
You know, who knows.
But you send him to a team
where there's an opportunity
for him to at least start.
Minnesota makes a lot of sense
being gone
and pairing him with Jordan Mason.
I'm trying to think anywhere else that there's like an opening
besides Jacksonville.
Okay.
That's Travis Zien going to the Saints.
I thought Denver would have made some sense
just, you know, reuniting him with Sean Payton,
but they brought back top.
Yep. Ken Walker to the Chiefs,
three years, $43 million,
with 28.7 guaranteed.
If you want to hear about that, we did a 10 to 12 minute bonus podcast earlier today.
That's FFT Express.
You can see it in this feed.
The Broncos signed, J.K. Dobbins.
Sorry, I should absolutely mention R.J. Harvey as a loser.
Yeah.
I mean, I guess, but the way it felt a week ago, this feels like we maybe got off easy on R.J. Harvey.
We knew he was going to share, and now he's sharing with somebody who has a hard time staying healthy.
so maybe he ends up in a situation where they have to give him more of the work again.
Would you be shocked if it's over, or if it's not over, I should say,
and they add another running back on top of this?
No, I expect they will.
But just too is there still?
Could.
Yeah, maybe.
In the first 10 games of the season, J.K. Dobbins, that's all he played was 10 games.
He had 153 carries.
RJ Harvey had 50.
J.K. Dobbins was the number 22 running back per game in non-PPR,
number 25 and half, number 27 in full PPR.
His 17-game pace was 260 carries, 1,300 yards, well, 1,312, and 7 touchdown.
So low touchdown rate there, and only 19 catches for 63 yards.
But he averaged 5 yards per carry.
And the year before that, he was the number 18 running back per game, but he did have 32 catches in 13 games.
So he's capable of catching the ball more.
It was really weird because the Broncos were seventh.
In those 10 games, they were seventh in those 10 games.
they were seventh in running back targets per game on first and second down.
And yet J.K. Dobbins averaged about one catch per game.
Was that the Tyler Biddei experience?
Maybe.
Maybe it was almost like when he was on the field, they were just not going to throw it to him.
Right.
So, you know, low upside guy, but definitely definitely in play.
Who are you taking first?
Who are you taking first? Harvey or Dobbins?
Harvey.
Harvey.
youth.
Okay.
What else we got at running back?
The buck signed Kenneth Gainwell.
So is Gainwell a top 100 player for you?
PPR, yeah.
Yeah, yep.
All right.
The Cardinal, oh, this is a big one too.
I knew he was going to forget some.
The Cardinals, they restructured Jane's Conner's contract,
but today they signed Tyler Algier to a two-year deal worth $12.25 million.
Dave, what's your take on the Cardinals backfield now with Algier and
Connor there.
It's a mess and they've reloaded
and this is the trio that they're going to go with.
I think it's a clear sign that they're not ready
to hand things over to Trey Benson.
It's a duo.
What do you mean?
I don't think Benson's going to be involved unless they're
and he might. So I think you're right.
It's probably going to end up being more of a duo
than a trio.
We'll probably pick Connor ahead of
Alger and Algeria will be a late round
pick. But I'm not real excited
about any of these guys.
No.
A little bummer.
And the Texans released Joe Mixin,
the Giants restructured Devin Singletary's contract.
Wide receiver news, the Niners signed Mike Evans.
Three-year deal could be worth up to $60 million.
Colts re-signed Alec Pierce, four years, $160 million.
Any numbers here, they're just on paper.
They're not necessarily real in terms of what's guaranteed.
If guy gets cut after a certain amount of years,
football contracts are weird like that.
Steelers acquired Michael Pittman.
Not pierces.
It's all guaranteed.
He got 60 million signing and 84 guaranteed.
Okay, but that's not 116 guaranteed.
So Pittman is going to the Steelers.
They ain't got a three-year deal worth $60 million, $59 million.
Four years, $78 million, with $38 million guaranteed for Wondale Robinson.
Jalen Naylor to the Raiders, Traylon Burks back with the commanders,
and the Falcons signed Jahan Dotson and Olamade Zekees.
And they signed Austin Hooper.
So they've added to their receiving room
without threatening London and Kyle Pitts, basically.
They are loading up on players that we can't stand because they score touchdowns and we never start them.
So Hooper is a little concerning just because he's got a relationship with Defansky.
Fansky's first tight end of note was Austin Hooper.
And so I think of his six years there in Cleveland, two of those years, Hooper was either first or second on the team of targets.
was there six years
here's a
here's a question from the Hoff
does Caleb Johnson get a boost
with Gainwell gone
no
yes
I'm gonna say he's gonna at least
get the opportunity to get a boost
they've never really shown
that they will give Jalen Warren
a true work you know
lead back workload
so but their skill sets are so different
yeah but he could he could get
But Gainoa was getting some carries.
Like he could get the six carries or something like that at game.
We got an opportunity maybe, you know?
Sure.
I guess he gets a boost in theory.
From zero, you know, it's a boost.
Let's see, a tight end.
We got Isaiah likely to the Giants, three years, 40 million.
Travis Kelsey back with the chiefs.
Heath, who do you like better?
Kelsey or likely?
Likely.
Dave, Kelsey are likely?
I think Kelsey.
Jamie?
Well, considering, we answered this already.
I'd say likely.
Tennessee signed Daniel Bellinger.
The Chargers signed Baltimore, former Baltimore Tide end, Charlie Kohler.
Three years, $24.3 million with $17 million guaranteed.
Tidens get big contracts.
The Vikings adjusted T.J. Hawkinson's contract.
The Bucks re-signed Kate Otton to a three-year deal.
The Falcon signed Austin Hooper.
The Rams signed Tyler Higbee.
So he was considering, yeah, he was considering retirement, signed a two-year, $8 million deal.
he played about 55% of the
Tyler Higby here,
played about 55% of the snaps most weeks
before his week 11 injury.
And then that's when Kobe Parkinson's snap started jumping.
And in week 14, Terrence Ferguson's
snap started jumping.
So, Heath, is there any
Rams tight ends that you think should be
in the top 20 in the rankings?
Probably not.
Yeah, bummer.
And Houston signed Dalton Shultz
to a one-year extension
for $12.6 million.
Now, Dave, offensive line stuff.
We got Linderbom to the Raiders, former Raven Center,
maybe the top player on the market.
We got the Bears trading for Senator Garrett Bradbury
after their center, Drew Dalman retired.
Trent Williams could be on the move.
The Lions released Taylor Decker.
There's been other moves.
They signed Cade Mays.
They sign a center, Cade Mays,
yeah, former Panther Center.
There's been other stuff.
What's the Raiders traded for Trent Williams?
Oh, that'd be fun.
Just all of a sudden have a good line?
Or they signed Decker.
The Browns have made a couple of additions.
The Jets, made one.
All right.
Anyway, Dave, anything really jump out?
Any fantasy earth shakers?
From the offensive line category?
Yeah, yeah.
I mean, Linderbom going to Las Vegas is great on two fronts.
Number one, he's going to help the interior on those runs for Ashton Genty.
And number two, he's going to help.
for Nana Mendoza settle in and help him out with, you know, identifying coverages and, you know,
who's the mic and all that stuff.
I think that that's huge for their rookie quarterback's development.
It's a smart move by the Raiders to get him in there and to pay him what they're paying
him.
They had to do it to get them.
But I think it's good for them.
All right.
We'll keep an eye on this to see if any teams get significantly better or significantly worse on
the offensive line.
Like the bills, the bills could have lost.
two players on the interior of their line.
They only lost one.
They re-signed Connor McGovern.
They lost David Edwards to the Saints.
And it's good for the Saints.
The Saints have to be aggressive because that's one thing for E.T.
I mean, he's going to a team that had a terrible offensive line last year.
But they go out and they get guard David Edwards, four years, $61 million.
The Jets are really making a lot of moves.
They're spending a lot of money.
What did the Jets do?
They lost one of their linemen.
I guess most of their stuff's been on defense.
The Jets, they traded for Minka Fitzpatrick from the Doll.
They gave him a three-year $40 million deal.
They signed an edge rusher from the Packers.
They signed an edge rusher from the Bengals.
They're signing a defensive tackle from the Falcons, so that's on defense.
Jamie, how about Max Crosby going to Baltimore?
What do you think about that?
I think it's a great move by Baltimore to try to increase their pass rush,
and obviously give Jesse Minter a little bit of a head start.
Their pass rush was a problem last year.
It seems a slight overpay for a 29-year-old player,
but still, you know, he's been very productive,
one of the best pass rushes in the league.
And now I saw a graphic that, you know,
Joe Burroughs got a face, Miles Garrett, T.J. Watt,
and Max Crosby six times, which isn't ideal.
But he'll be okay.
They actually gave him his entire starting offensive lineback
for the first time since they went to the Super Bowl.
So that's encouraging.
Yeah, I mean, it makes the Ravens DST one of the best in football.
And they gave up two first round picks for him,
including, I think, the 14th pick this year.
that's right anything else guys i don't want to read all the defensive news heath go ahead
uh no i mean just in the opposite vein of the ravens the chiefs the chiefs that she's
lost their secondary they sure did like cook gone watson gone duffy gone um
there's not maybe that need though maybe there's more shootouts for the chiefs this year
there's only one guy you need it's bags you're good yeah well and they added tonga on the d line
And in the full back room.
Yeah.
And, you know, another team that lost some defensive backs was the bills.
They traded cornerback to Ron Johnson.
They released safety Taylor Rap.
They also released Dane Jackson, but he was, he only played three defensive snaps last year.
Who did they, didn't they sign somebody, Alford?
Is that everything got?
Man, I don't know.
I must have missed it.
I thought I was.
It's not that he's like, it's not earth shattering to have D.
Alford is your nickel, but that's who's probably going to end up.
placing Johnson.
I do think things got significantly easier for Justin Herbert with not seeing Crosby twice
a year and the chief secondary getting so much worse.
Sure.
Their matchups and the Broncos defense might be a little worse.
Denver.
You also, if there was any concern, you also are getting Mike McDaniel not putting his imprint
on that team by the Alec Ingold signing because he was with him in Miami.
Dolphins release him.
He goes straight to the Chargers.
Chargers also signed a center
Former Commander's Center
and Cowboy Center
Tyler Badass
Should be his name
But it's Beiotish
Three year 30 million dollar deal
How about the Panthers
The Panthers with getting Jalen Phillips
I'm a big Jalen Phillips fan
Four year $120 million deal
$80 million guarantee
He's an edge rusher
But he's not really
He doesn't put up big sack numbers
He's great against the run
And he was big for the Eagles
Eagles traded for him
mid-season from the dolphins, and he was really good for them.
And the bear is signing Kobe Bryant from the Seahawks was big.
They also signed Devin Bush, former linebacker for the Browns.
All right.
The Titans went nuts today.
They signed a lot of guys.
Headlined by one.
Did you say you didn't want to go through all the defensive?
Well, I'm not.
There's a lot more.
This doesn't want to shortchange anything here.
Okay.
I think we're good.
Good show.
More to come later this week.
Juan Jennings, Tyree Kill.
hell yeah
etc a lot of still quarterback news
is going to shake out
Jamie Jamie
when are we drafting
probably next week
I feel like I'm going to get
Mike Evans in every league now
good good
he can be your Tyreek hill
we just need to figure out
who you're Isaiah Pacheco is
Isaiah Pachevichael
no I don't love Tony Paul
I didn't know I said I did
It was a big lie
A big Valentine's
Yeah I was embarrassed
I was embarrassed and they have one valent guy
All right later, everybody.
We'll talk to you tomorrow at some point on Fantasy Football Street.
