Fantasy Football Today - Free Agency Rankings Risers and Fallers (03/20 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: March 20, 2023

VOTE FOR US HERE (Fantasy Sports & Betting Category): https://www.sportspodcastgroup.com/sports_category/fantasy-and-sports-betting/ Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  With most of free agency and some trades behind us, let's review the rankings! Who has moved the most for Jamey and Heath? First, we'll take a look at the recent news on Brandin Cooks, D'Onta Foreman, Adam Thielen and Mike Gesicki. Is Brandin Cooks a Top 30 wide receiver (3:32)? Do we prefer Thielen or K.J. Osborn now (8:35)? How do we rank the Lions running backs vs. the Bears RBs (12:30)? ... Jamey gives his rankings risers (20:55) including Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love, Dameon Pierce and Darren Waller. Does Waller have more upside with the Giants than he did with the Raiders? Also, do Jamey and Heath think Miles Sanders is a riser (28:40)? ... We get some rankings risers from Heath (37:50) and then we talk about the players moving down in the rankings (43:50) including Elijah Moore, Alvin Kamara and Cole Kmet ... Email us at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Welcome in, everybody. It is Monday, March 20th. Aaron Rodgers still technically on the Packers. We're waiting for that to break. But Brandon Cooks is on the Dallas Cowboys, and we'll talk about that. Deontay Foreman, he moves to a new team. He's with the Chicago Bears.

What does that mean for Khalil Herbert? Welcome. I am Adam Azer with Jamie Eisenberg and Heath Cummings. Hope you guys had an excellent weekend. It definitely was not as good as my weekend, but I hope it was good nonetheless. Heath, looks like... Did you go to both games? No, I just went to the Friday

game. Tremendous, tremendous sports experience. I'll tell you about it in a little bit if you'd like to hear about it. One of the coolest experiences that I've had at a sporting event. Why did you not go to both? Okay. You want to get into that both? Okay. All right.

Well, you want to get into that now? Okay. Yes, I went to the NCAA tournament game on Friday. Wow. Yeah, yeah. They taught you how to say tournament. They wouldn't let me in without saying it right. It was Miami versus Drake.

It was a pretty sloppy game, but fun finish. Miami won. It was great. I was at Albany, which is two hours away from me. Everything just worked out perfectly. I got a great price on a ticket. I went by myself. I got a parking spot in a lot that was completely full right next to the stadium.

It was actually connected to the stadium. One guy just left the parking lot, so I got in there. Everything was just perfect. They won the game, but the crowd, it was really amazing, I got to say, because it was just, for the most part, it was just basketball fans. The way these work is there are two games for that session, and you could buy tickets to the entire session and go to every game, including the earlier games, whatever, but most of the people there were not Miami fans or Drake fans or Indiana fans or whoever Indiana played. They were just basketball fans, and they were so into it, and it was a really, really cool experience.

It was packed. And the coolest part was at halftime, halftime was the very end, almost the very end of the Purdue game, where they lost to Fairleigh Dickinson, if I said that right. And everybody was watching it. 20,000 people were watching it on the big screen and going crazy as FDU pulled off the upset. So that was really, really fun. I didn't go to the game on Sunday, Jamie, because it was two hours away. It was later. I would have had to probably stay

overnight. I wasn't going to drive home at like midnight. There would have been a lot more traffic because it was the last game as opposed to whatever, blah, blah, blah. So it just didn't work out, and I had work today. So that's why I didn't go to that game. Gotcha. Yes. Anyway, Heath, you're going to Madison Square Garden in four days. No, Miami's not there.

South Florida's got another team coming to you. FAU's there? FAU will be there. Oh, no. Did we lose Heath? He froze. All right. He'll come back.

Anyway, I hope everyone's doing great in your bracket challenge. I'm in 14th place in FFT, so let's go. Nice. Yeah. Let's talk football, though, because we do have some headlines to get to here. And let me give you some rankings questions. So the news we're going to be covering mostly today is Cooks, Thielen, Foreman, and then a little bit on Gasicki, Gardner-Minshew.

Let's talk about that briefly. But, Jamie, how would you rank these wide receivers as we'll wait to get Heath back here? Brandon Cooks, now with the Cowboys. Michael Pittman, maybe Gardner-Minshew will be his quarterback for some of the year. Who knows? And Mike Evans with Baker Mayfield.

Brandon Cooks, Michael Pittman, Mike Evans. Heath, I don't know if you heard that. Brandon Cooks, Michael Pittman, Mike Evans. Jamie, how do you rank them? Evans, Pittman, Cooks for now. Evans, Pittman, Cooks. Heath? Pittman, Evans, Cook.

I'm not sure that Baker Mayfield is even a good thing for Mike Evans. He might be, but he also might be the guy we saw for the first half of last year, which is the worst quarterback in the NFL. Yeah. So let's talk about Brandon cooks here, guys. And Jamie, you said off the air, you're not even sure if you moved them in your rankings after he was traded to Dallas. What's your take on him going to the Cowboys for a fifth round pick this year and a sixth round pick next year. Love the move for Dallas. You know, I think it adds to, to their wide receiver core and we'll see, you know, just exactly what Brandon Cook still has left and how much of last year was a byproduct of the Texans

or how much of a byproduct was he's just getting into his early 30s and it's time to start slowing down. But he's clearly not going to be the number one receiver on this team, and Mike McCarthy says they want to run the ball more. There's still Michael Gallup for what that's worth, and I still think he's a capable player who they paid a lot of money to, um, who will get some targets. So I don't know if he's going to be the same type of fantasy option, but I do think he is a great value pick once again, because he will fall in drafts.

And so a guy that I would love to have as my fourth receiver, uh, I would settle for him as my third receiver. Again, I think when we talk about number one, number two, number three receivers, you have to expand the number more than just going by 12. So I think he is a very good number three receiver, but he's not ranked that way for me. So I think you just look at the situation in Dallas in the target crunch, and if they are going to be a more run-heavy team, it could be a little bit of a downgrade for his fantasy numbers. Yeah, I think I've got him projected for 120, 425 targets right around wide receiver 40 in the first run of projections. What it will come down to is this efficiency dip we've seen

really the last two years, 7.7, 7.5 yards per target the last two years. He's at basically nine yards per target the rest of his career. Was that Davis Mills? Was that I don't want to play in Houston anymore? I think it's hard to expect a bounce back to what he did in his mid-20s in what will be his age 30 season. So I'm going to probably be on the low side of that efficiency. But that does give you some hope for upside.

If he's the Brandon Cooks that he was two and a half years ago and gets 124, 125 targets, he could be a top 30 wide receiver. Yeah. And also not every wide receiver is in this situation, but if CeeDee Lamb gets hurt, then you could be talking about much more upside, right? I mean, you can't say that for every wide receiver. If this guy gets hurt, they can get so many more targets. I guess, you know, there's an Allen Robinson comparison that I'm feeling, and I just hope it's not, oh, he's going from the Bears. They couldn't throw the ball at all. Now he's going to the Rams, and he's the number two guy. But it turns out he was just not very good anymore. I hope that's not

the case for Cooks. I think the other Allen Robinson comparison is if a guy at 29 shows you that he's lost a step, you should believe him and not expect to bounce back. Yeah, I was surprised. Brandon Cooks ranked pretty high in explosive catch rate, which is 16, which True Media defines as 16 or more yards. I think Allen Robinson was pretty bad in that metric in his last year with the Bears before he went to the Rams. That's just one metric, but it shows some playmaking ability. But that's the question, Heath. I don't know.

I don't know what it is with Cooks. Did he lose a step, or was it all the things you just mentioned? I guess we'll find out with Dallas, right? Mike McCarthy, tell me if this matters to you at all, because people are going to say, well, they're not going to be like a ground-and-pound team. He wants to slow things down a little bit and help out his defense. Mike McCarthy was with the Packers for 13 seasons.

In six of them, this is pretty impressive, six of them, Green Bay had two top 24 wide receivers. In four of those 13 seasons, they had two top 18 wide receivers. So the Mike McCarthy offense at least showed he can produce two borderline must-start wide receivers. A little bit different quarterback, though. I think so, but I feel like Rodgers, I have to go back and look. He was never a guy who threw the ball all that much.

Rodgers is a Hall of Famer. Dak Prescott's not in that category. Right, but Prescott's putting up big numbers. That's all I'm saying. Yes, I know that. I'm aware of that. But Prescott puts up big numbers. He's been throwing the ball so much.

But all right, see, that doesn't matter to you then. Okay. No, I think, you know, look, Brandon Cooks, again, I think will be a good value pick for fantasy managers to last some good weeks. I think a byproduct of last season was he wanted out of Houston. You know, he was expected to be traded to Dallas last year. You know, and so essentially what this is,

it feels like just based on the compensation, like they waited a year to trade Brandon Cooks for Mark Cooper. And that feels like a downgrade. Okay, so let's go to our next rankings question. It involves Adam Thielen and KJ Osborne and Jacoby Myers. And it's ranking those three guys

with Adam Thielen going to the Carolina Panthers. He's going to be 33 years old. They gave him a three-year deal with $15 million guaranteed, $14 million guaranteed. That surprised me. But he's the number one guy right now for Carolina. So Thielen, Jacoby Myers, KJ Osborne. Heath, how do you rank them right now? Ah, low, low.

None of these guys are in my top 45 wide receivers. They're all between 46 and 52, I think. Right now I've got it Thielen, Osborne, Myers. But, I mean, Carolina could take a wide receiver in round two and change that, I guess. I'm not real excited about any of them. Jamie, you've got Thielen, Osborne, Myers. How do you rank them? Osborne, Myers, Thielen. I don't really want any any of them. Jamie, you've got Thielen, Osborne, Myers. How do you rank them?

Osborne, Myers, Thielen. I don't really want any part of Adam Thielen. But Osborne I'm excited about, and I do think that there's a chance for Jacoby Myers to be okay in Oakland without Darren Waller there. But Osborne's my favorite of that group. So talk about it. You say you're excited about him.

He did very well from a fantasy points perspective. I think he caught five touchdowns maybe in six games without Thielen in 2021. Thielen did not miss any games last year, but Osborne kind of came on strong late. So talk about Osborne and when you draft. We have a draft tomorrow. It's a three receiver PPR. Yes. Three receiver, 12 team PPR league. Do you think Osborne, give me a round where you think he'll go? Oh, I mean, I'll probably be one of the more aggressive people to draft him aside from Thomas Schaefer, the Vikings guy.

But I would start to look for him in a three-receiver league in the round eight range. Okay. And Heath, what about you? Not in your top 45. Right. I think I've got all three of these guys right around round 10. Okay.

Do you want to expand on Osborne, Jamie, or anything you want to say? No, I mean, you hit on it. When Thielen was missing, he was a very good player two years ago. I think this is part of the reason why they moved on from Thielen. Aside from money situation, they feel like there's more for him. The people who I know who know people in the Vikings organization feel very confident about K.J. Osborne and you know development and i think this is his time to shine so i i do think that there's a there's a step forward that he can take and i'm looking forward

to seeing what he can do now with the opportunity to do it now if they draft a receiver which i think is certainly uh in the possibility um you know that that would be a downgrade and you have to factor in what he did in 2021 there was no tj hockinson you know so that would be a downgrade. And you have to factor in what he did in 2021. There was no TJ Hawkinson, you know, so there's a bigger piece of the passing game there. But I still think that this is an opportunity for him to benefit from all the attention that Justin Jefferson will receive, that TJ Hawkinson will receive. There's clearly a rapport already established with Kirk Cousins.

And again, I think whenever you see these type of moves, when there's a pushing of a guy out the door, there's usually a reason for it. And I think it's because KJ Osborne's ready to take that next step i know what the answer is for heath um because he's not that high on osborne but jamie who are you who you think you're going to draft well i'll ask both of you i guess since it's an adp question who do you think you're going to draft more hawkinson or osborne if things don't really change for the for the vikings i will probably draft more osborne just because of the way that i draft Osborne if things don't really change for the Vikings?

I will probably draft more Osborne just because of the way that I draft tight ends. Yeah, I think I will probably draft more Hawkinson because I'm in a lot of drafts with some guys who really like KJ Osborne. Okay. But I think

Hawkinson's probably going to go before I have him. I have him in round six, so the answer might be neither one of them. Okay.

And last question here, I know who Heath's going to say. Jamie, I don't know if Osborne's this high, but Osborne or Brandon Cooks? They're very close

to me right now. I think I have Cooks ranked ahead, but it's in the same range. Yeah, and I've got them. I'd agree. I think I have Cooks in round 10 with those's in the same range. I've got them. I'd agree. I think I have

Cooks in round 10 with those other three guys. They're all right in the same range. Last rankings question for now. The Bears and the Lions running backs. For the Bears, it's Khalil Herbert and Deontay Foreman. For the Lions, it's DeAndre Swift and David Montgomery. How would you rank those four? Heath, you can start.

Give me half PPR. Half PPR. So, Herbert, Foreman, Swift, Montgomery, how would you rank them? Right now I'm going to go Montgomery, Swift, Herbert, Foreman. I do think Foreman could be a real problem for Khalil Herbert. And I think either one of those guys, if they could consistently get 18 touches a game would be first, but I kind of expect it to be a 60, 40 split unless something less than until somebody gets hurt. All right. Sorry. Say the rankings again. Montgomery Swift, Herbert Foreman. Okay. Lions, lions, bears, Bears. How about you, Jamie? Half PPR. Same for me. I had written the free agency winners and losers. And I think I led with Herbert or maybe I led with Justin Fields, but Herbert was like the first player I wrote about

aside from the lead of the story. And it was like two hours later, they signed Deontay Foreman. And so I had to do a quick edit. I had, I think I said it on the show, if they had gotten through the draft without taking a running back of significance, and I think Deontay Foreman has some significance, but a running back of significance that Herbert, when I first did my rankings following for agency, he was in top 15.

And so, you know, now he's outside of top 24. So I think Foreman's enough of a problem. And I also don't think that they're done adding to their backfield. So I agree with Heath. It's both Lions, Montgomery ahead, and then Herbert ahead of Foreman. I think this is also a pretty scary stat. Here's the 10 games that Montgomery, Herbert, and Justin Fields all played together.

Montgomery averaged 13 carries per game. Herbert averaged 8 carries per game. Fields averaged 10.6 carries per game. And from the two-yard line or closer, Fields had three carries. Montgomery, two. Herbert, one. Five-yard line or closer, Fields crushed it. Ten carries.

Herbert, four. Montgomery, three. So you're talking about a three-way split and the goal line back last year was mostly fields, especially inside the five yard line. It was a little bit closer inside the 10 inside the two yard line, but yeah, that's kind of reminds me of the Eagles a little bit, you know, just before, um, free agency started, I put together the opportunity index that I do every year. That's mostly to show who has room to add somebody. But I also keep track of total running back opportunities from the year before.

Lions had 546. That was the third most in the NFL. That's rush attempts plus targets. The Bears were 26 with 430. So 116 more chances for the running backs in Detroit than there were in Chicago last year. But that's, sorry, that's catches, right? No, that's targets plus carries.

Targets, targets, sorry. Yeah, so targets I think is a huge part of that. The Bears were ninth in running back carries, but yeah, they just, especially when Darnell Mooney was healthy. They were ninth, but they were still 60 behind the Lions. Oh, okay. But the targets is huge.

I mean, when Darnell Mooney was healthy, Justin Fields, I think the running back target rate was about 15%. Now, I think it went up after the Mooney injury, but now you got Mooney and you got DJ Moore. It's, you know. So who leads the team in carries? Who leads the Bears in carries?

I hope it's Herbert, but it would not be surprising if it's Foreman. I mean, you know, you just look at even the years that they're coming off of, you know, Foreman has been, as a replacement, a pretty good replacement option for the teams that he's been replacement for. And a workhorse, too.

I mean, not surprising to see him get 20 or more carries. Could be Fields. Okay, sorry. Of the two running backs, who would you bet on? More carries. And by the way, let me ask you this. Does the one-year $3 million contract, very small contract, does that tell you anything

for Foreman? Well, I think it was a very similar contract to what Rashad Penny got. So, I think there's a chance for Foreman, but there's no guarantee, is what it tells you. I would bet on Herbert, but I wouldn't want to bet on it. I think we don't have enough information yet. I know that there were quotes from Foreman. He is not taking this job thinking that he's going to be a backup. He is expecting to compete for the lead job.

All right. We'll see how it shakes out. Are these guys ahead of Rashad Penny? Yes. Not Foreman, but yes. Yes, sir. Yeah. But Penny will fall once the draft ends.

I mean, they're a drafting guy. Okay. All right, everyone. We'll be right back. We're going to take a break. We've got a lot more to talk about here. Winners and losers of rankings, risers and fallers from free agency. We'll take a look at We're going to take a break. We've got a lot more to talk about here. Winners and losers are rankings risers and fallers from free agency. We'll take a look at some

players that we haven't talked about. Why is Damian Pierce on the rise in Jamie's rankings? Heath, I asked him for risers and fallers. He just said Miles Sanders. And honestly, I don't know which category Miles Sanders is going to fall in. He said lots of things besides Miles Sanders. No, but you didn't say whether he was a riser or a faller. Oh, okay.

No, you did give us names, but I had to guess which category they were in. We'll see if I guessed right. We'll be right back on Fantasy Football today. Did you know that across Ontario, utility damage happens 19 times a day? That's over 4,222 incidents a year. Don't let your next dig be one that causes costly delays or safety risks. Before you break ground, make it a point to request a locate. It's not just the law.

It's a step to keep your team and community safe. Visit OntarioOneCall.ca and avoid unnecessary damages to get the job done right. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. All right, welcome back, everyone. Hey, you ever dream about buying a nice fantasy football today, podcast shirt, and then jumping over to get a Yellowstone whiskey glass or Top Gun Maverick hat? Well, now you can with the brand new Paramount shop, which offers a mountain of merch from the Paramount shows and movies that you love. Shop official apparel, drinkware, and accessories inspired by over 150 fan favorite titles like Paw Patrol, Yellowstone, Top Gun, Star Trek,

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That's 20% off the entire store until next Wednesday. So this is awesome. All the great things. You can have a Kenny shirt, a Yellowstone shirt, an FFT shirt. Very cool. Do they have the Adam Azer bobblehead in there yet? Not yet.

We're working on it. I didn't know that was a thing, but let's work on it. Yes, yes. How's your bracket doing? I'm in 14th place in FFT. 14th. That's awesome. Yeah.

But I'm not going to do very well because I still have Gonzaga. But the rest of my Final Four is crap. Are you guys doing well? No. No. No? Schaefer, are you in it? Schaefer, are you in the bracket? Are you guys doing well? Nope. No. No? Schaefer, are you in it? Schaefer, are you in the bracket?

Are you in the? Yeah, I'm like 500 or 300. I'm not doing well. Yeah, 568. Azar's killing it. He's in 14th place right now. Yeah, there you go. I'm like fifth best among the Gonzaga picks,

but I think probably fifth is probably the best I can do would be my guess. I'm not eligible to win entry into the podcast league, though. Don't worry. All right. I want to thank everybody for joining that. We had over 2,000 people in it. Good stuff. Let's get our rankings movers. All right. Look at some of the risers. First, we'll do Jamie's risers here. You got Aaron Rodgers, assuming he's going to the Jets, and Jordan Love as risers. Who, Jamie, do you. You got Aaron Rodgers, assuming he's going to the Jets, and Jordan Love as risers. Who, Jamie, do you like better, Aaron Rodgers or Jordan Love? Well, Rodgers.

I mean, you know, the hope would be is that he is rejuvenated by the new team that he's with, that he benefits with, you know, going from not necessarily a more experienced receiving core, but I do think that Garrett Wilson is the best receiver he will have played with over the last two seasons, uh, better than Christian Watson,

for example. And, um, hopefully Elijah Moore can bounce back, uh, still has Alan Lazar with him, Randall Cobb, Donald driver,

Jordy Nelson, uh, everybody that's ever played with in green Bay that he wants to go with him. Um, but you know, Rogers was somebody that if he stayed in green Bay, um, I would not have any interest in drafting. Now I have some interest in taking him

as a late number one quarterback with a late rampant. Low end number one quarterback with a late rampant. I'm sorry, Heath. Did you want to get in there? It looked like you were going to say something. You just stopped. You froze me there. Yeah. Well, no, I moved him up I think two spots.

I had him behind Goff, and I had him behind Russell Wilson, and I moved him up ahead of those two. I see, Heath, you have Daniel Jones as a riser. Jones or Rodgers? I would take Jones over Rodgers with the hope that they're still going to go get him another wide receiver, hopefully, in the draft, and with what he draft and with his what he can do with his legs that he could be a top 12 quarterback this year the group the group

that i struggle with is rogers jones kyler right now just because the uncertainty um and cousins that group so i I must have moved them between... I settled on two at 11. If he's healthy, I think he should be drafted as a top 12 guy. And then it's that group of four or five quarterbacks that just I'm sure I'll change 13 times. So instead of focusing on the order of that group of Rodgers, Cousins, Jones, Kyler,

was there someone else in there? That was it? Maybe Russell Wilson. Yeah. I mean, how do you approach that group? Do you take two of them? Are they your second quarterback? How do you approach that group on draft day?

Kyler, you 1,000% have to take a second quarterback with for now. Um, but I think in terms of those, those, that group, that's just the, okay. I I'm the last fantasy manager to take a quarterback. And that's the one that I liked the best in that tier. You know? So whenever you get to that point in the draft, um, I don't think it's a bad idea to take two because there's clearly flaws with them. You know, can Daniel Jones do it again? Is Cousins going to still be the same, you know, fantasy quarterback on a low end scale? Does he have another notch to get to? Does Rodgers still have anything left?

You know, and I think it's not a bad idea if you're going to go that route with some of those veteran guys, then you take a shot on, you know, Trey Lance if he's the starter there, a rookie, you know, who may have a chance to blow up, you know, CJ Stroud, Bryce Young, wherever those guys end up. Maybe you're so inclined to take two in that group because Daniel Jones still has some upside. So there's a good case to be made to take two quarterbacks for sure. Okay. Jordan Love. Heath, that's a riser for Jamie.

Is he a riser for you? I mean, he's obviously a riser. He was not in my top 32, and he is my top 32 now. So he is a riser. He's not somebody. I mean, I think he's aer for you? I mean, he's obviously a riser. He was not in my top 32 and he is my top 32 now. So he is a riser. He's not somebody, I mean, I think he's a backup for me in a two quarterback league. I've got pretty low expectations. They have not been a hyper aggressive passing offense the last two years. I don't think they're going to be at least the first half of Love's first campaign as a starter. So I would expect a pretty conservative game plan, at least early on. And maybe in a one-quarterback league, if he gets high,

he's somebody you end up picking up off the way we were. Okay. Running back risers for Jamie are Tony Pollard. We spent a lot of time talking about Tony Pollard last week, but you can tell us where you have him. Tony Pollard, Damian Pierce, David Montgomery, and Miles Sanders. Real quick on Pollard, where did you end up with Pollard in your rankings at running back? Seventh. You know, borderline first-round pick.

So, again, the guys I struggle with with him are Jacobs, Henry, Chubb, that group. So, I think, again, we've talked about this a lot, that if Tony Pollard does not get significant competition and is the guy in a Dallas offense that's trending in a direction that wants to run the ball more, I think there's just the upside to be a top five guy. So he showed that last year in the two games that Ezekiel Elliott missed. I think we see the upside of what this offense is as a runner.

They bring back Tyron Smith. Just everything is coming up roses for Tony Pollard right now. I think Pollard and Pierce both, for me, top 10 running backs. Definitely top 12 guys. Both guys that I'm going to be a little bit nervous until we get through the NFL draft and we see if their team... I think both teams are probably going to draft a running back, but hopefully neither team does so before day three.

I think they'd both be top ten running backs this year. Damian Pierce as well. Okay, so let's talk about that. Why was Damian Pierce a winner for you, Jamie? Offensive line help. I think you see the direction that they're going to go. They're going to add to their quarterback group, which I think will help this offense.

You don't like them losing pieces in their passing game, but I don't know if Brandon Cook was ever in their future group, which I think will help this offense. And you don't like them losing pieces in their passing game, but, you know, I don't know if Brandon Cook was ever in their future plans, so I don't know how much he had to factor that in. But, you know, to get Shaq Mason to pay Laramie Tunsell to, you know, just continue to add, you know, pieces to a group that I think is one of the better units in the NFL underrated-wise, for sure. I like this offense. You know, I just think that Damian Pierce, as Heath said, you said, we'll see what happens coming out of the NFL draft

but for me I was probably too low on him to begin with because I had him closer to 20 than I did to 12 and he jumped about 8 guys so he's just outside my top 12 but he's right there with Travis Etienne, Najee Harris

I like him better at this point than Joe Mixon and Dalvin Cook, for example. I know we gave Thomas a hard time in one of our earlier drafts, so I apologize, Thomas. You made an appropriate draft pick to take him to the third round. But why would you take him over Dalvin Cook? Why would you take Damian Pierce over Dalvin Cook? I don't feel like the Vikings trust Dalvin Cook at this point,

and it's an age thing as well. He's just at that point where I think you've to fear you know the breakdowns coming uh Joe Mixon situation is obviously pretty volatile right now as well so um I think you know just looking at what he did last year you know again you got to be a little concerned about pedigree based on NFL draft and the experience that we've seen with you know guys that aren't day one or day two picks but I still think there's an opportunity here for Damian Pierce to be the lead back for at least this season and hopefully build off a strong rookie campaign. Yeah, Mixon, Cook, Kamara, if I thought he was going to play 17 games,

and Aaron Jones, all four guys who would project right in that same range with Damian Pierce, but I'd rather have Damian Pierce because he's not 28 years old. I mean, it's funny. He's not 28 years old, but he got it's funny. He's not 28 years old, but he got hurt last year. You know, like these young guys get hurt too. Missed a lot of time last year.

And is he going to... You mean Dalvin got hurt early in his career? I know. That's what I'm saying is... What is the age argument? That they're more likely to get hurt or that they're more likely to decline? Yes.

Because I don't really buy the injury argument with that, because running backs get hurt at all ages, you know, all the time. I'm not sure a 28-year-old running back is more likely to get hurt than a 24-year-old running back. In fact, I would guess there's no evidence of that. But that is a total speculation. But just thinking, I mean, think about all the running backs who got hurt early in their career.

It happens all the time, you know? Yes. And for me, it's more decline okay decline um david montgomery a riser and miles sanders a riser for jamie heath do you agree with those takes yes absolutely miles sanders is a guy who i think could be a top 15 running back um we saw how effective this running game was even after Christian McCaffrey left last year. They went and prioritized him. They have his old running back coach, the guy who, when he was his running back coach, they actually threw it to him 50 times a year. So I think that there's a chance Miles Sanders could be right on the heels of Damian Pierce. Would it make you guys nervous to draft Sanders on Carolina, Pierce with Houston, with rookie quarterbacks? Does that factor in at all?

I mean, yes, for sure. You know, you've got to be concerned about, you know, inefficient offenses. I mean, look what happened to Najee last year, for example. You know, just going from an experienced guy like ben roethlisberger to you know the the combination of trubisky and pickett if you just want to go from from a recent standpoint but i think also you look at what the workload should be and damian pierce was able to have a pretty successful season with with a hefty workload on a bad team i would assume myles sanders is going to have a hefty workload on a bad team um you know we'll see see how Carolina stacks up in that division based on how quickly that quarterback, I hope

it's not Andy Dalton for us in the offense stretch, but however that quarterback picks up things quickly. I agree with Heath. I get a little bit concerned more so with Sanders at his age going to the team that he's going to. He feels like somebody that just might be one of those guys getting paid, switching teams, and struggling. Okay.

All right, let's talk about your wide receiver risers here. KJ Osborne, you talked about. Kadarius Toney, Michael Thomas, and Nico Collins. Thomas is kind of cringeworthy for me, but I think just the fact that he stayed in New Orleans and they get a quarterback upgrade is, I had like zero interest in him. Now I'll take him as a late third, number three receiver.

Okay, well, so how would you rank Tony, Michael Thomas, Nico Collins? Thomas, Tony, Osborne, Collins. That sounds right, yeah. But again, a lot of apprehension about this entire group. Same. I'm trying to look, I apprehension about this entire group. Same. I'm trying to look. I wish I had looked this up.

I'm sorry I didn't. But I feel like Nico Collins was okay without Brandon Cooks last year. I don't remember the game. He was okay with Cooks, too. Yeah, okay is a really good way to put it. Yeah, he didn't really have any good games. He had one game with more than 65 yards, Nico Collins. It's kind of like, well, not anymore Terrace Marshall,

but these guys that we wanted opportunities for, they didn't really do all that much to get excited about. He had 36 targets in his last four games, nine targets a game. Did not top 50 yards in any of those games um and then darren waller as a riser for jamie so i was on fft and five yesterday with chris it aired this morning forget what i said about dionte foreman i i think i don't feel that way anymore but darren waller my opinion my tell me if you agree with this take. Going to the Giants from the Garoppolo-led Raiders

gives Waller both a higher ceiling and a lower floor. Makes him a much more volatile receiver. Many more possible outcomes with Daniel Jones rather than Garoppolo. Agree or disagree? I think that's fair. Not just with Jones versus Garoppolo, but without Devontae Adams. He has a chance on the Giants

if everything went right to get 140 targets. Probably wasn't happening on the Raiders. I think if he stays healthy, he's going to have a very... has the potential for a similar year to what we saw in 2020. That was an 1100 yard season, right? He averaged 17 PPR points per game. Yeah, that's pretty damn good. So Hawkinson or Waller? Hawkinson for now. But again, I think, you know, you lean towards youth in this case um you gotta be a little

concerned about waller's injuries the last two years you know how much of it was you know did he not want to risk two years ago the the contract situation um last year you know i'm sure clearly he wanted to get back on the field doesn't strike me as that type of guy but you never know i just think that you know going to a new, that's clearly going to feature him and the opportunity to, you know, learn from Brian Dable and Mike Kafka, it's, it's, it's pretty enticing, you know? So, um, for what you said, I think is, is a pretty good telling point for when you look at this tight end group because you know what you're getting from from Kelsey you should know what you're getting from Andrews and probably Hawkinson just based on the small sample size from a year ago for me those are my top three tight

ends four five six it's kind of like okay Dallas Goddards in a crowded you know receiving situation five for me as Waller just based on upside. Six is Pitts and seven is Kittle. I think those guys, you can certainly debate where they should be ranked, but there's upside for all of them in some way, shape, or form. If Waller stays healthy, I think he could be a top three guy. Cool.

Okay, Heath, I think your risers are Daniel Jones, Miles Sanders, and Sabajay Pirine. Those are all correct, and we've already talked about two of them, so that's even better. That is even better. Let's talk about Sabajay Pirine then. And I don't know why Heath has to bring up Daniel Jones on every show. It's just ridiculous at this point.

But Sabajay Pirine, how are you looking at him right now with the Broncos? I think he has an excellent chance to be the week one starter for the Broncos and an underrated chance to be the week nine starter for the Broncos. We just don't really know. There's a lot of smoke in different directions around the Javante Williams situation. There's been reports that he could be ready for week one. There's been reports that he'll start on IR, and they don't know that he'll be there ready all season.

There's a big opportunity in offense that has featured the running back in the passing game, and we just saw P. Ryan look really, really good in the passing game in Cincinnati. We're drafting tomorrow. It's a PPR league. Deontay Foreman or Samaj P. Ryan? P. Ryan. Same. DeAndre Swift or Samaj P. Ryan?

Tomorrow, Swift. But two months from now, could be P. Ryan. I have Swift two spots ahead of P. Ryan. All right, people. We've got more to talk about, but we need your help right now. We want to win the award this time. We want to win the best sports podcast. Actually, the category is Fantasy Sports and Gambling.

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It took less than a minute. Real simple stuff. And then you go and you get to the Fantasy, you get to the fantasy and sports betting category, and you vote for Fantasy Football today. That's all you need to do. I'll put links in the episode description, both in Apple Podcast, wherever you listen, and on YouTube as well.

By the way, you can watch us always, youtube.com slash fantasyfootballtoday. We live stream all of our shows. You can see them on demand. Coming up this week, we have our mock draft review on Wednesday. I've got Samantha Praviti joining us thursday to give maybe some free agency thoughts or if that topic is stale at that point we'll just ask her for some of her favorite players for 2023 we'll hear what

she has to say we're going to try to get some guests on during the month of late march and into april and of course talk nfl draft as well we'll take a quick break here when we come back we will look at the fallers in the rankings post-free agency, or at least most of free agency. We'll be right back on Fantasy Football today. All right, let's talk about the fallers here. And Heath, I don't want to take all of yours as we look at Jamie. So you go first here.

Your fallers, I think, are DeAndre Swift, Juju Smith-Schuster, and Elijah Moore. Well, we were close. Juju was actually a riser. Ah! But yes, Andre Swift and Elijah Moore. And Elijah Moore is probably more of a dynasty thing just because I don't know how anybody had gotten too excited about him for redraft purposes yet.

But as much as we've seen Aaron Rodgers struggle to connect with young wide receivers, it's hard for me to believe after the Jets sign Alon Lazard that he's going to connect with two of them in New York. I think the best case for Elijah Moore is now that he ends up somewhere other than on the Jets. I push back on the notion that he struggles to connect with young wide receivers. They barely ever gave him young wide receivers. They haven't drafted one in the first round in like 20 years. And I think if you look at... Elijah Moore was not a first round pick. Okay, but I'm just talking about the Packers here.

I think you look at what Christian Watson did in the second half of the year. He was a top 10 wide receiver. They connected pretty well. I think Elijah Moore had a six-week stretch his rookie year. He had the sixth... I think the fifth most green zone targets in the NFL in the last eight games, one and a half of which he was basically either not playing or playing hurt.

I think he connected pretty well with Christian Watson. And does that, I'm saying even if you disagree with that, there haven't been that many rookie wide receivers for him to connect with. He's not a rookie, though, Elijah Moore. He's in his third year. I mean, this is, you know, the hope would be is that this crappy quarterback situation that the Jets had last season, thank God Garrett Wilson put up the numbers he did without Zach Wilson.

But did you really expect, you know, Joe Flacco in the limited time that he played and Zach Wilson and Mike White and those guys to cater to two guys, let alone three with Corey Davis? So I don't think Elijah Moore – I don't disagree with Heath that he's not somebody that you should be excited about. But the potential additions of Alan Lazard and Randall Cobb make it tough from a target perspective to say Elijah Moore can ascend from that group to the point where you're excited about him once again.

And with all that said, is Garrett Wilson a riser or a faller? Because, you know, months ago, before or not, I guess guess maybe a month ago, sorry, after the season ended, before we really thought Rodgers was going to the Jets, it was always a possibility. He was a third-round pick, even early third round for some people. But gets Rodgers, in theory. But also gets Lazard, maybe Cobb. So is Garrett Wilson a riser or a faller?

I didn't move him, but he's closer to a faller than a riser for me. I feel a little bit more nervous than I feel like I shouldn't. We went into this not knowing who his quarterback was going to be, and now we think we know who his quarterback is going to be, and I still feel a little bit nervous. Jamie? Same. The argument for him is just that he's probably so much better

than all those other guys. Yeah. And the cream will rise. I mean, you would hope. And again, Rodgers, when he's had a guy, he's really featured that guy. And this should be that guy. Lazard is not that guy.

Cobb is clearly, at this point in his career, not that guy. And Elijah Moore is not that guy. Cobb is clearly at this point in his career not that guy. And Elijah Moore is not that guy. Did I give this stat? I've been waiting for Rodgers to sign so I can give this or get traded so I can give this damn stat. But what I love about a number one receiver for Aaron Rodgers is the red zone, green zone peppering of targets. From 2012 to 2021.

Okay, we'll talk about 2022 in a minute, but 2012 to 2021, that's 10 seasons, uh, a green Bay wide receiver ranked top 11 in red zone targets every single season and top five in red zone targets in five of those 10 seasons, similar trends in the green zone. I won't bog you down in numbers, but he locks onto guys. And he did that with Alan Lazard weeks two through nine. Lazard was fifth in red zone targets and sixth in green zone targets. Lazard didn't play in week one

and weeks one through nine, Christian Watson barely played. Christian Watson starts playing week 10, basically week 10 through 18. He was fifth in red zone targets. He was second in green zone targets in the NFL. It is something that happens every year with Aaron Rodgers. He picks one guy, and he throws to him over and over again

in the red zone and the green zone. Will that happen again this year? We will see. That's right. Yeah. I'm going to be so mad if it doesn't happen this year because it's one of my favorite stats. Let's just hope it's Garrett Wilson, right?

Okay, Heath, Juju's a riser, huh? Yeah, I think he moves into a place where he probably just takes over the 22% target share that Jacoby Myers left behind. And he'll be a number three wide receiver in a pretty decent situation. I think he's a clear number one target for the Patriots. But is he better than he was last year with the Chiefs? I think on a per-game basis he might be close. Because last year was kind of a weird year. He had, what, a six-week stretch where he was a number two wide receiver, and then before that and after that he had some weeks where he wasn't really worth anything. There will be ups and downs, but I think

overall he's probably somewhere between wide receiver 30 and 36. Okay. Jamie's followers. Oh, sorry. No, I just wasn't sure going into free agency. As cold as the market had been on him for two years in a row, I thought he might go into a worse situation than this. I don't think this is a better situation, though.

So he's a riser for you, Heath, because you thought it could have been worse, basically. Yeah. Okay. All right. Jamie's followers, DeAndre Swift, he hit him as well. Alvin Kamara and Jamal Williams. So talk about that, Jamie. Kamara and Williams are losers, followers.

Well, I mean, let's assume Kamara does not get suspended, which seems unlikely at this point. But I don't think he's going from two touchdowns to 10 touchdowns with Jamal Williams on the field, you know, so his rushing touchdowns are going to clearly suffer once again, as long as Jason Mills still there as well. So, you know, Jamal Williams at this point, not that he's a better player from a career standpoint than Mark Ingram, but I think a 31 year old Mark Ingram compared to Jamal Williams, this phase of his career, Williams is probably a little bit better standing. So a guy that's going to take some work away, not just in the ground game, but this is still a guy that for his tenure with the Packers

averaged 30 receptions a season and could probably take some work in the passing game as well if Kamara's not producing across the board. So, you know, obviously Jamal Williams loses going from a place where he could have scored multiple touchdowns to, or excuse me, double-digit touchdowns So, you know, obviously Jamal Williams loses going from a place where he could have scored multiple touchdowns to, or excuse me, double digit touchdowns to, you know,

a place where we'll probably be lucky to get six or seven. And so I think both these guys lose with the addition of Jamal Williams in New Orleans. I was actually a little more excited about Jamal Williams just because I didn't think that Camara is probably going to get suspended. Well, there's a difference. That's totally different conversation.

I agree with you from that standpoint. If again, if, If there is a suspension, then Jamal Williams gets a benefit of however many games that is. But if it's two-game suspension, I don't know how much that's going to really boost Jamal Williams' value. I don't want to have to draft Jamal Williams. But you have to draft him.

I do dislike him. You have to draft him. It seems like he's a really good dude. The teammates love him. I like that about him. His press conference was awesome. Oh, I didn't see it. He wore a Pokemon hat. He talked about the character he's wearing.

He said that there's different, he has different kind of laughs. He said there's an evil laugh, but I could be happy. There's a happy laugh. I could be evil. It was very fun. Okay, you brought up Pokemon.

I just, I'm going to confirm something. gonna confirm something hold on hold on yeah yeah so blake martinez was the giants he was a packers linebacker then the giants then he went to the raiders and then i think right and then he abruptly retired he made according to the new york post five million dollars in seven months selling pokemon cards. So maybe we know why he retired. He is just rolling in the dough, selling Pokemon cards. Good for Blake Martinez. All right. Let's see. More followers here

for Jamie. We'll go to the wide receivers. Chris Godwin, Mike Evans. Yeah, we talked about that for sure. Heath and Jamie, do you guys have either Evans or Godwin in your top 24? I do not. Godwin, PPR, yes. Jacoby Myers is a rankings faller for Jamie.

And you stuck that way after the Waller trade? Yep. Okay. And Josh Palmer, I know you were excited about an opportunity for him with Keenan Allen potentially getting released or something that didn't happen. So where's Palmer? Oh, double-digit round guy. Late round fire.

Wide receiver, 56. And tight end fallers for Jamie are Cole Komet and Mike Kosicki. We did not talk about Mike Kosicki. So if you're in a super deep league and you have to pick a Patriots tight end, which one are you going for? Henry.

Yeah, I'll go. Henry was the roller coaster because I had just moved him up from looking at his target share last year when Johnny Smith didn't play. And then Mike Gazzicchi ends and he's back outside the top 20. Yeah, I really struggle with this Patriots offense

because I don't know how much Bill O'Brien is going to make this passing game that much better. So I don't really love Juju there. I don't really love Mike. I hate Mike Isiki there, to be honest. You know, the saving grace would be that Bill O'Brien recruited him to Penn State. So, you know, there's that connection. But is Tyquan Thornton going to get a bigger opportunity?

Devontae Parker still being there. You know, how much are they just going to be still a run first team? You know, so is Juju even better than Jacoby Myers at this point, you know, and, and will he just assume, as he said, that target share and that opportunity? I still feel like I'm hands off the Patriots aside from Roger Stevenson. Now he did recruit Gusecki there. Did he end up coaching him? I think, did he leave? I feel like he left.

Probably not. He recruited him then left and then brought him leave? I feel like he left. Not sure. Probably not. Coached, he recruited him, then left, and then brought him in in free agency 10 years later. I think, I think that's what happened,

actually. I'll try to double check on that. It'd be really funny if he left again now. All right, that's pretty much it for our risers and falls. You know,

for Kemet, I definitely found myself interested in it because you want Justin Fields to take that big leap. And I was drafting Mooney in some drafts. I was drafting Komet.

I don't know. Do we have to eliminate Komet from that discussion? Is he still a borderline top 12 guy even with DJ Moore? I don't think you eliminate it, but for me, he was a top 12 guy. At this point, I'd rather have Okonkwo with the chance of what he can become in Tennessee. I'd rather

have Dawson Knox right now for what the Bills receiving core looks like. They cut Dave's guy, Isaiah McKenzie. So they did just actually sign a receiver while we were doing the show, Trent Shurfield from the Dolphins, but that's not a big boost. So for me, Kamed falls into that touchdown or bust group, which is basically what he was a year ago. And so looking at the addition of DJ Moore and just comparing him

to those other two guys, for example, I dropped him from, I think, 11th to 15th. Now he'll fall depending on, you know, right now I have Dalton Schultz ranked ahead of him. He hasn't signed yet. So we'll see what happens there. But yeah, and the addition of Robert Tunyon, you know, as well. So that was a big part of it, too. You know, there's another guy there to just take away some touchdown opportunities. Okay.

So, by the way, Mike Kosicki did not play for Bill O'Brien. He did get recruited and then Bill O'Brien said, see you later. Go on to the Houston Texans. I think that's about it, guys. Anything to add here? Oh, I have two questions. If Gardner Minshew, I'm just going to tell you right now, he's the quarterback for

17 games for the Colts. Would you rather have Gardner Minshew or Jordan Love? Minshew. Love. Okay, and did you move Christian Watson at all in your rankings? No. I think he went down a couple of spots,

but he's still in the top 20. Okay. Well, who are you rooting for in the NCAA tournament going forward now? Who's your team? My hometown team, the Owls. Yeah, I feel. Oh.

All right, well. South Florida's team. Remove the A from that, and that's how I feel about your response. South Florida's team is the Owls. South Florida's team, okay. Well, it's going to be tough for Miami against Houston, but you know what? Back-to-back Sweet 16s, very, very cool. Heath replaced his Kansas banner, his

KU banner in the back with a Chiefs Super Bowl championship banner. That's cool. Yeah, I really appreciate that. Thank you very much. You know who you are. Oh, yeah. He got hooked up a little bit with that. That's good stuff, too. Alright, folks. Have a good day. We'll talk to you on Wednesday with a mock draft recap.

And then Samantha Praviti joins us on Thursday for Heath and Jamie and Schaefer. I'm Adam. See ya.