Fantasy Football Today - Geno Smith to the Raiders! Covering All Angles of the Trade (03/10 Fantasy Football Podcast)

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Starting point is 00:00:40 stands for total fund savings adventure, maybe reach out to TD Direct Investing. Today stands for Total Fund Savings Adventure. Maybe reach out to TD Direct Investing. Bonus pod time. Welcome everybody. It is Friday night and here we are on Fantasy Football Today. Adam Hazer and Heath Cummings, Geno Smith going to the Raiders for a third round pick. And you know what? Why don't we just throw Christian Kirk to the Texans for a seventh round pick in there,

Starting point is 00:01:02 Heath. Which is a bigger one for fantasy, you think? I would say the quarterback moving, Gino Smith, creates a lot more certainty on one side and uncertainty on the other. Yeah, it's good, right? It's good for Bowers, for Myers. Good? I would say it's definitely good for Bowers. You had the Bow uh, Bowers McBride poll earlier in the week. And I think that one's been settled. Now we know that Bowers got enough of a quarterback upgrade that he is definitely the tight end one with the wide receivers involved in this deal. It's really kind of a holding pattern with JSN with DK, cause we don't know

Starting point is 00:01:42 where he's gonna be playing and the Jacobi Myers, cause Jacobi Myers might be replaced as the number one wide receiver in Las Vegas within the next week or two. So Gino Smith, you know, how big of an upgrade are we talking here? He had the 30 touchdown season three years ago when he was QB eight per game. Since then he's been QB 22 per game in 2023 and QB 19 per game in 2024. And that was, uh, 17 games, 15 games, 17 games in those three seasons. Um, he did get back to the yards, you know, 4,320 yards is really good, but only 21 touchdowns, 41 touchdowns over the last two

Starting point is 00:02:21 seasons after 30 touchdown passes in 2022. So you know, how big of an upgrade is this? Do you think for the Raiders? I think Gino Smith's floor right now is very similar to the upside that the Raiders had at quarterback last year with like the very best of Gardner, Minch, who are aid no Connell is a lot like the worst we've seen from Gino in the last three years. So I don't know that I really believe that Gino Smith has the upside to match that 4,000 yard, 30 touchdown season. He doesn't have DK Metcalf on this roster, even if he has Brock Bowers.

Starting point is 00:02:58 But it's, it's like I said, it's a stabilizing factor for Brock Bowers. We were expecting him to match or exceed what he did last year. Now he has the quarterback that could help him do it. One of those situations where we maybe feel better about the impact for the team and those around him more than we are excited about Gino. He was a mid QB two, he will be a mid QB two. What do you think about the offensive philosophy

Starting point is 00:03:24 for the Raiders? They had the fourth most pass attempts in the NFL, Gino Smith, Pete Carroll, Chip Kelly. What does it all look like to you to think? I think you could see a small step back, but again, the last year was kind of a weird year when you look at the last five, because I don't think their past attempts last year would have been the fourth most in the prior couple of years. So I would expect we're going to see somewhere around slightly above average in terms of a pass rates, 570, 580 pass attempts, assuming Geno Smith stays healthy and plays 17 games.

Starting point is 00:04:00 Um, again, if there's a small step back, there should be an increase in efficiency. Cause Bowers is playing with a much better quarterback. And we talk a lot when you talk about Trey McBride, like the thing that pops up in everyone's mind is that the touchdowns always definitely got some positive touchdown regression coming. Right. Well, Brock Bowers had five touchdowns on 153 targets. That's a 3.2% touchdown rate.

Starting point is 00:04:26 Gino Smith, these last two years when the touchdowns have been weighed down, has still had a 3.8% touchdown rate. Even if he's that bad, you're talking about a major boost for Bowers who should be based on his style of play and his size should be amongst the team leaders in touchdown catches. By the way, I'm just doing looking this up right now. This was a real surprise emergency. Get on the air Friday night, I'm cleaning the kitchen. And then all of a sudden I'm doing a podcast. I'm just looking where Chip Kelly's four teams ranked in pass attempts in his four seasons. So I'm three with the Eagles, one with the 49ers.

Starting point is 00:05:06 This is more than 10 years ago for some of these seasons. But in case you're curious, I'll tell you right now. So in his first season with the Eagles, they ranked 27th in pass attempts, but then fifth, seventh, and sixth, oh, no. That's sixth for the Eagles. Where were the 49ers? 29th.

Starting point is 00:05:24 So he had two seasons with high pass volume, two seasons without it, And sick. Uh, Oh, no, that's six for the Eagles. Where were the 49ers? 29th. So he had two seasons with high pass volume, two seasons without it, which means we really don't have anything I think to take away from, from that. Well, I think what you can take away though, is looking back at those teams. You see Colin Kaepernick, you see Blaine Gabbard, you see Mark Sanchez, you see Sam Bradford, you see Nick Foles. Um, and there, there may be one more, who was it in 2013, but like it w I think we can pretty fairly, oh, we had a six games of Mike Vic. Um, like it was, um, I would say pretty confidently that, you know, Smith is the best quarterback that Chip Kelly's had in his four years in the NFL in terms of passing. And Chip Kelly did a pretty good job. I mean, they scored a lot of points. They were

Starting point is 00:06:09 fourth highest scoring team in 2013, third highest in 2014 and 2015. The Eagles were 13th. And then not such a great year as I recall from 2015 with the 49ers, they were 27th in points scored. But I think what you have to question, and I wouldn't put like, this is just a question Mark. You said several times about Doug Peterson. It seemed like the more he coached in the NFL, the lower his offenses ranked. And did teams kind of figure out what Chip Kelly was doing?

Starting point is 00:06:42 And after two seasons of the top five offense, he has a middling offense, and then he has a terrible offense. So it hit he is a bit of a mystery box for me. But there's there's upside there. All right, let's talk about this from the Seattle standpoint here and how you're feeling about JSN at this point. What do you think the odds are that the Seahawks do better, do the same or better at quarterback at this point than they had with Gino Smith?

Starting point is 00:07:08 I, I like their chances of doing the same a lot better than I like their chances of doing better. If their plan is we're going to go get Sam Darnold now, then maybe they could be the same as they were last year in terms of quarterback play. If their plan is to somehow like try to go get Chador Sanders or dress Jackson Dart, then I think they're probably going to be worse. Yeah. So someone's asking in the chat, is JSN worrisome now? There is.

Starting point is 00:07:39 So I think when we were talking about Tyler Lockett's gone and DK Metcalf's on the trade block, you were looking at JSN and thinking, wow, there might be top 12 upside for him next year. I think that still exists, but you do also have the risk now. There are times when guys get permission to seek a trade and they don't get one worked out and they end up back with their old team. If we have a worst quarterback and DK Metcalf still on the team, then you have to start wondering,

Starting point is 00:08:10 is JSN even a number two wide receiver? I wouldn't say that this necessarily impacts his upside because it's possible they could still get a quarterback as good as Gino. It makes him a little bit more fragile in terms of a projection, because if the quarterback's worse and DK sticks around, things could be bad. And yeah, I say this all the time, but remember they said, said it yesterday, whenever we podcast, they fired their coordinator in Seattle because they wanted to run the ball more. And you know, this could, we don't really talk about Ken Walker a lot, but this could be Ken Walker's team, you know, for as long as he's healthy, maybe they, maybe they want Justin Fields.

Starting point is 00:08:51 Maybe they just want to run the ball with Justin Fields and Ken Walker. No, no thanks. Justin Fields, not good for JSN. Good for JSN. I do not think it would be good for JSN. I would agree with that. Yeah. Wouldn't be meant necessarily bad for Seattle though.

Starting point is 00:09:04 All right. Thank you. He can't imagine they're bringing Russ back. So, and, and if they, if they bring Adams in and trade DK there, or they bring Rogers in and trade DK, he's probably going to bring Adams. Uh, it really needs to be Sam, really needs to be Sam Darnold. Daniel Jones. Uh, no, I just feel about the same about David Jones.

Starting point is 00:09:24 I would Justin Fields. Okay. With these Justin Fields with less upside. Monday's gonna be a lot of fun. What are you doing for the rest of the night Heath? I've got some company that's on their way over to the house. That's why I said we gotta hammer this one out right now if we do it.

Starting point is 00:09:40 But no, just spend a little time at the park with my son. I actually won a game of horse, which I rarely win anything with him on the basketball court anymore. So that was fun. He'll be really happy that I told all you people. All right, thank you, Heath. Enjoy your Friday night.

Starting point is 00:09:55 For those of you who just like tuned in, 921 people watching live right now on at 7.41 PM Eastern on Friday. That's really cool. Thank you so much for that. I hope you enjoyed this bonus pot a lot more for you throughout the week ahead for Heath Cummings. And thanks to Thomas Schaefer for setting this up on short notice as well. I'm Adam Azer. Enjoy your weekend.

Fantasy Football Today - Geno Smith to the Raiders! Covering All Angles of the Trade (03/10 Fantasy Football Podcast)

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