Fantasy Football Today - 🚨Golladay to the Giants! Is This Bad for Everyone? (03/21 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: March 21, 2021

How much of a downgrade in offense is Kenny Golladay getting as he goes from the Lions to the Giants? It might not be as bad you think! But having said that, does this hurt the Fantasy values of basically every Fantasy-relevant player in New York? Or is Golladay exactly what the Giants need to get to another level offensively? Subscribe to the FFT in 5 podcast on Apple, Spotify, Google, or wherever you listen to FFT. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @CTowersCBS, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Want winning picks each morning in under 10 minutes? Subscribe to 'The Early Edge: A Daily SportsLine Betting Podcast' on Apple, Spotify, Stitcher or wherever else you listen to podcasts. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. The last time we saw a full season of Kenny Galladay, he was the number three wide receiver in non-PPR, number nine in PPR, 65 catches, 1,190 yards, 11 touchdowns on only 116 targets, and the 11 touchdowns that Galladay caught in 2019 were one fewer than the 12 touchdowns

the Giants threw for in 2020. How about that? So does this signing crush Kenny Galladay's value? Let's discuss Adam Azer and Dave Richard on bonus podcast number. Dave, you got a guess? Number? I want to say seven or eight. Twelve.

It might be my seventh or eighth bonus podcast, but we're up to twelve now. A full dozen. Started with Dak a couple weeks ago and might end with Gallaudet. Well, Fournette maybe. We'll see. There are a few more Dominoes. If Fournette and maybe another player sign at around the same time, I'm sure we'll

want to talk about it then. But it's exciting. This is fun stuff. This is things happening and Dominoes falling in the NFL. Yeah. And so Galladay gets four years, $72 million, 40 million guaranteed. Where do you have Kenny Galladay ranked? I've got him as a number two receiver and that's PPR or non PPR top 20 still, but not near where we were drafting him last year. Someone who is still going to be a solid starter in your fantasy lineups,

but not someone that you're going to look at and say, all right, that guy's got a shot to be a top five fantasy wide out. Do you have him ahead of or behind the Tampa Bay wide receivers? I got him behind them. I think, especially in PPR, Godwin, I think is a pretty easy one to put him behind. And I feel like he and Mike Evans are kind of sort of the same guy. Touchdown volume, not necessarily target volume driven wide receivers, big physical outside guys. So I'll take the one that's been getting thousand yard seasons for seven straight years, catching passes from the goat versus Galladay, who got banged up last year and is catching passes from Daniel Jones.

Definitely not the goat. And do you have the Rams wide receivers or Gallaudet? More like a skunk than a goat. I have Woods one spot ahead of Gallaudet in full PPR. And I've got Cooper Cup way down. Cup's somebody that we're going to have to evaluate at some point this offseason. Getting the new addition at quarterback

with Matthew Stafford, maybe we're a little too low on him. Maybe there's some decent value there, but I've got Galladay ahead of him right now. All right, so let's talk about Galladay because he's never been a target monster, as you said. You know, you get 115, 120 targets. That's kind of been his pace.

I could get into it a little bit more where he was really playing differently than that in Matthew Stafford's eight healthy games in 2019 because he had one game with just two targets. That was Marvin Jones. When Marvin Jones had four touchdowns that game, Gallaudet was uninvolved. But other than that, he was getting number one receiver type of targets, seven to ten targets every game.

I don't know that he's going to get that with the Giants, but he has shown, Dave, that he can be very effective and catch some touchdowns on a 120 target pace. Okay, so let's take the four healthy games he played in 2020, small sample size, but he was on pace for 80 catches, 1,352 yards, eight touchdowns on only 112 targets. In 2019, already gave you the numbers. Top 10 receiver top five and non-ppr 11 touchdowns on 116 targets and in just the eight games with matthew stafford he was on pace for 108 targets and eight touchdowns so and 1100 yards um oh no sorry that was without that was

without matthew stafford so with stafford is much It was 124 targets, but it was 14 touchdowns and 70 catches and 1,280 yards. So the bottom line is he's among the leaders in yards per catch. He could get you 16, 17, 18 yards per catch. And he's a red zone target. He's a green zone target. So, you know, can he get close to double digits? Can he get eight touchdowns in this offense? I think that's the ceiling.

That's what I was going to say when you were going over his per-game pace without Stafford. Clearly, that's going to be the case in New York. I think he can get that high, but that's the ceiling. And the floor could be, I mean, we saw it last year, no Giants receiver had more than three touchdowns. So, yikes. But I don't think anybody's really questioning Kenny Galladay's ability here.

I think it comes down to Daniel Jones and how well he can get Galladay the ball. No qualms about how Matthew Stafford was able to get him the ball with Stafford and with the other quarterbacks. And in 2019, he had a top 10 year in terms of consistency. He's done that each of the past two seasons. He's given you at least 14 PPR points in 12 of his last 20 games. That's good, but it also has to do with the quarterback. And that's really where I get nervous. Daniel Jones had 75.2% of his throws considered on target last year. That was 27th in the league. 27th.

17.6% of his throws were considered poor. That's the bad throw rate that I talk about a lot. That was middle of the pack. That was 15th. Okay, not that bad. Here's some good news and then some really terrible news. Good news. He was eighth best in the adjusted completion rate on deep throws. Just over half of his throws were completed deep. Eighth best in the league. Okay, that's good good we like that for kenny galladay that'll help intermediate throws two-thirds of them adjusted completion rate 18th best in the league so again we're back to middle of the pack this is what drives me nuts daniel jones on shallow throws 10 yards are closer to the line of scrimmage 37th in the league and adjusted completion rate at 77.7 even Even if you add five percentage points on,

because a lot of quarterbacks are jumbled together because percentage is so high, he would have been only 22nd. He would have been as good as Cam Newton at 82 point whatever, 82.7%. So I'm worried about those short throws not being there. Obviously, I'm worried about his ability to command an offense when he's coming off of the season where he can't even throw 15 touchdowns. He's got a turnover issue. The offensive line, line i think is going to be a huge problem giants have to get it all fixed and if they do then golladay's got a shot to be better

than what i'm saying but if not i think he's going to be kind of a meandering fantasy wide receiver who will have a handful of very nice games but more often than not will be kind of meh like 12 13 ppr points seven to nine non-ppr points yeah so i i do want to talk about the fit here because dave you you talked about the adjusted completion percentage which uh talks which gets rid of drops passes that were batted at the line of scrimmage. Spikes. Spikes, throwaways, those types of things. Yeah. But I think you've heard me lament that Giants wide receivers just don't get open. And you see Daniel Jones force a lot of passes

into tight windows because his guys cannot get open. That is actually not Kenny Galladay's strength. No. He is not that kind of player. And I saw a comparison that said he was a poor man's DeAndre Hopkins, who also isn't like that, but they catch a lot of contested balls. So that's great, catching contested passes, but he's not a guy that gets up.

So the short area stuff is not, I don't think, going to be a strength. But yeah, I do wonder if it's a good fit because you do have the downfield stuff, that's Gallaudet's strength. That might be Daniel Jones's strength. We're not sure. Also, this is hard. Okay, two years ago, Gallaudet had his great year.

Did you know that two years ago, that was Daniel Jones's rookie season, he made 12 starts. The Giants and the Lions scored the same amount of points that year. So if you're thinking, man, he's such a downgrade offensively, the Lions to the Giants and the Lions scored the same amount of points that year. So if you're thinking, man, he's such a downgrade offensively, the Lions to the Giants, well, when Gallaudet had his best season, 1,200 yards, 11 touchdowns, they scored the same amount of points.

That was only two years ago. Last year, the Lions didn't have a good offense either. Gallaudet was out most of the year. But the Giants had a terrible offense. They were the second worst offense in football. They had a much better defense, and they threw the ball a lot less. And that is my big concern.

If they have a good defense again, and I'm a little skeptical, but I don't think it'll be bad. But if they have a good defense again, and they get Saquon Barkley back, and they go back, and they run the ball like they want to, and you've got Shepard,

and you've got Ingram, and you've got Slayton, and you've got Barkley, are you going to get 110 targets? How are they going to get enough volume here? This is a team. Daniel Jones threw 32 passes per game last year. It was about 38 the year before when I said...

And you know who the high man in targets was? Slayton, right? Among wide receivers, yes. He had 96. Yeah, Ingram had over 109. Right. So is this bad? know that's my big question is this bad for everyone does this kill everyone other than daniel jones it helps him

but we don't care right now about daniel jones but shepherd ingram slate i don't know who's drafting slayton right now and golladay i mean it's bad for is it bad for everyone it kind of is and golladay's value dips like i like I suggested that's how I look at it is seeing him as more of a middle to low end number two fantasy wide receiver takes away the upside that he would have had if he had landed in you know an amazing destination wherever that would have been I think Shepard stays steady in PPR still think he can do what he does and that's just you know catch five for 50 every week and occasionally mix in a touchdown Slayton's going to become at best the third

wide receiver in the offense, but this is an offense that likes to use two tight ends. They use an H back. Maybe there's competition for Slayton. He's basically off the board unless you're in a super deep league and Angram is crushed too. I don't think he's a lot of people didn't think it was a top 12 tight end to begin with. Now he's definitely not. He was the target leader last year. They just brought in a new alpha. So he's going to have a hard time getting any kind of decent volume. Give me Zach Ertz ahead of Evan Ingram at this point. What about Hunter Henry, Jonu Smith? Jonu for sure. And I believe I've got Hunter Henry ahead of him as well. There's just nothing to really like about Evan Ingram. If he's going to get, let's's see if we put him at 80 targets over the course of the season that's

like five per game right so i i guess that's okay for a tight end but how is he going to break out how's it gonna happen i think he really burned his chance with the giants last year and by the way they signed kyle rudolph too forgot about that he's a red zone guy. He's been very good near the end zone in his career. Let me tell you this about Daniel Jones. He threw 11 touchdowns in 14 games last year, but he threw 24 touchdowns in 12 starts as a rookie,

but 13 of them were against three pretty crappy opponents, the Jets, the Lions, and Washington. So aside from those three games, in his career, he's made 25 other starts and thrown 22 touchdowns. So it's really scary.

And I wonder if we're not taking in the downside for Kenny Galladay enough, you know, that maybe he could have a horrible season because of Daniel Jones. Where he doesn't even get

to like a thousand yards and five touchdowns? I think he'll get... No, that's a horrible season. But honestly, would it shock you if he finished with 900 yards and five touchdowns? No, it wouldn't. It also wouldn't shock me if they kind of were like

a less effective version of the Bills. I'm not giving up on Daniel Jones yet. I don't think he's very good, but I could be wrong about that. I think most people have determined that he's not very good and they're 100% right about that. I still see potential there. The offensive line is extremely young, so they're going to

have to make a jump, but Josh Allen was written off. A year ago, nobody thought Josh Allen was good, and for good reason. He couldn't throw the ball on target. He was extremely... We liked him because of his rushing ability. Nobody thought he was a good passer. reason. That's not true. He couldn't throw the ball on target. He was extremely... We were still drafting him as a top 10 fantasy quarterback. Because of his rushing ability. Nobody thought he was a good passer.

He ended up being one of the best passers in football and Stephon Diggs was a big part of that. A big part of that. I'm not going to give up on that hope that they could have an offensive turnaround, but it won't be that to that degree.

Bottom line is, I haven't buried Daniel Jones yet. I, like I said, I'm betting against him, but I'm not, not to the point where I'd be shocked if he were good. I've seen some really good things from him. I think you have too. Yeah, but it's been a while. It was really that rookie year when I saw really good things from Daniel Jones and he's put some deep throws on the money. You think back to Evan Ingram's drop pass against Philadelphia last season, that would have given the giants a win. That throw was on the money. I think it does come down to the offensive line more than anything else. And that'll obviously impact Saquon as a runner and a pass catcher

out of the backfield. But to me, if Daniel Jones is protected, that means he's not getting hit as he's thrown. He's not getting the ball stripped. That takes away turnovers. That gives him more attempts. If he's got more attempts and he's got time to throw, yeah, he's probably like every other quarterback who's been in the NFL and he can make a good throw most of the time. And the deep ball, the adjusted completion rate on deep balls proves that he can make a good throw when he's settled and fine. So the Giants really need to do a good job of protecting him. Adding Kyle Rudolph can certainly help because that's basically a sixth blocker up front.

And if all that works, Galladay can handle the contested catch's 15-plus yards downfield. Okay, so Dave's got it. That's the optimistic upside, but that's the first step that has to happen. If Galladay is going to end up outperforming his, what I think is ADP should be. And I think for a lot of people, especially in a PPR league, his catches, it just, they're not going to be, that's the thing. He's not a big catch guy. So you need a lot of touchdowns. I

think he's pretty easy to avoid up to a point, obviously, in PPR leagues because 75 catches, I think, would be pretty good. Like I said, the yards per catch are so good that he makes up for it in that regard, but even in his best season, he only had 65 catches. If you want to know what he did with Matthew Stafford in those, he was on pace for 70 catches. Again, 75 would be pretty damn good for him, and that's just not really a big number at all these days. That is it for this bonus podcast.

We've got another show coming tonight because Chris Carson, I asked on Twitter, who would you rather have, Kenny Galladay or Chris Carson? We'll see what the people said. He's back with Seattle. Phillip Lindsey is on the Texans. Hopefully more news to get to, but Dave will be there. Jamie and Chris will be joining us as well.

So we will talk to you tonight on Fantasy Football Today.