Fantasy Football Today - 🚨 Gronkowski to the Bucs! (04/21 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: April 21, 2020

Holy cow! Rob Gronkowski is headed to the Bucs, pending a physical. Is he a Top 12 TE? Does he have more upside than Noah Fant? Is Tom Brady moving up the rankings? Are the WRs affected by this? We give our immediate reaction to the trade. 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Want in the PODCAST LEAGUE!? Here's your chance: https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/permalink/856529974841302/ Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @YardsPerGretch, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The last time we saw Rob Gronkowski play football, he was winning the Super Bowl, the most boring Super Bowl of all time, not sure it even counts. He was also, that season, 2018, the number 11 tight end in non-PPR, number 12 in PPR, not quite as lofty standards. In non-PPR, Gronk scored almost the same exact amount of fantasy points as O.J. Howard, and now they are teammates for the time being, or potentially. He was a New England Patriot then. Now the Patriots close to acquiring Gronkowski, it's pending a physical. They'd get Gronk and the Bucs, excuse me, would get Gronk in a seventh round pick from the Pats for a fourth round pick.

I'm Adam Azer. I got Heath, Ben Gretch, Dave here here i don't know why i felt the need to specify which ben but heath how do you project a guy who just took a year off it's so difficult because i mean the buccaneers already had one of the most talented tight ends of all time why would they do on their roster now they have arguably the second most talented uh rob gronkowski right behind oj howard in terms of talent and ability um no it's impossible because gronk is the greatest tight end of all time he hasn't played for a year we did not last time we saw him he didn't look like prime gronk he's now 31 years old and he doesn't generally play more than 13 or 14 games a season so my initial projection

completely inaccurate 56 receptions 785 yards 5.8 touchdowns tight end eight in ppr there's certainly a lot of upside beyond that there's also the downside that he might play six games who's got rob gronkowski as a top 12 tight end right now if this trade goes through and he's on the box? I do. I do too. Heath obviously does as well. That part's easy because once you get past the top seven or maybe eight,

you're just hoping for upside, and no one has more upside than Gronk. Right. Is that true? Does Noah Fant not have more upside than Gronk? No. That's who I'm going back and forth on right now, just because we're debating between one guy who we've seen play like God

on the football field, and another guy who has had maybe four really nice plays since he's under the league. So I think you sound kind of silly if you say, well, I'm going to take Noah Phan ahead of Rob Gronkowski, because you'd rather have the proven entity, especially in an offense where he won't be leaned on as much as he was the last time we saw him playing. I mean, I don't know how defenses are going to recover Tampa Bay now with Godwin, Evans, and Gronk on the field, provided that Gronk, you know, the easy stuff, puts on the weight, running healthy, seems fine, knows what he's doing out there. It's going to be really difficult to slow him down.

So I kind of get it. I can kind of buy into taking him over fant who's just not proven ben where you at right now yeah i'd take him over fan um i think you know like i i wind up with mike gasecki in a lot of our drafts because i have him i think tight end 11 in my current rankings i think you got to take Gronk over guys like that. I mean, I like a sickie. I like fan.

They're they're young guys. They're athletic. They're talented, but we're hoping that they become contributors. And yes, like because they're more in their athletic prime, their ceiling might be a little higher. They're absolute ceiling,

but we're like, they still have to be good enough to consistently play at the NFL level. We have not seen that yet. So Gronk, we know can do that. And if Gronk's healthy, he's going to be that guy. So yeah, that's the question though, because he wasn't that guy. In 2017, Gronkowski was the number one tight end in non-PPR. He was number two in PPR. He was still amazing. And he only played 14 games. The year before that, he played eight games. In 2018 was his most recent season, and he played 13 games and like i

said he was just barely in the top 12 and he just he just wasn't as good i mean 47 catches 682 yards three touchdowns how that's top 12 at any position i mean that just tells you about tight end just not very good um and you know you compare let's say you take compared to marshall lynch and by the way gronkowski is only 31. He's gonna be 31 in May. He's not old. Marshawn Lynch skipped his age 30 season. He came back at age 31 and he was better than he was the last time we saw him

when it looked like he retired at age 29. He didn't have a very good year in 2015, 2017. He was, he was fine. You know, 4.3 yards per carry, 207 carries,

891 yards, seven touchdowns. He had a nice season with the Raiders. But I guess the point is it looked like the year off did good, did some good for Marshawn Lynch. So are you thinking that Gronkowski gets the year off and comes back and looks much more like not prime Gronk but good Gronk compared to the last time we saw him, which wasn't a very good Gronk. I think he's a physical anomaly. I think even that comparison with Lynch, I think is good on some levels, but I think it's hard to make a comparison to Gronk.

He's always been different as a player. And if we think back to 2016, 2017, 2018, what we saw from Gonk was repeated injuries wearing his body down and sapping him of that difference making ability if he is healthy yeah like you said he's not that old i i think he's somebody that still is a complete matchup you know disadvantage and somebody that dbs are not going to be able to tackle he can catch balls 15 20 yards downfield where no linebacker is going to get a hit on him. He's impossible. He's too big and too fast.

He's always been that good. And I just think if – what we saw late in his career was really the result of nagging injuries and multiple surgeries and all those things. If he's coming back and those things are fixed, like he still has upside. Couldn't they come back? Couldn't those things happen again 31 year old body even with the year off starting to get pelted uh we don't know what his speed is going to be like he might just be you know andre the giant roving the middle of the

field catching the ball and then getting slammed by defenders and going down to move the chains. But was he ever – did he ever lose speed or was it nagging injuries? He was – by the end, he was a shell of himself then. He was not running like he used to. No, I agree with that. But was that because he lost the ability or was that because he wasn't healthy? We don't know if he's got that ability. I think he could be faster than the last time we saw him going down the field like a cement truck. The last time we saw him, he was catching maybe the most important pass in the Super Bowl.

Sure, that's fine. But he didn't really have a sideline and beating a corner, I think. But it's not like he had a big game or anything like that. We still saw flashes. I agree with Heath. Okay, sorry. He had six catches for 87 yards. know i mean we still saw flashes i mean i i agree with heat the other okay sorry he had a big he had six catches for 87 yards um you know what he actually had a pretty good postseason first game one catch for 25 years i didn't remember this but six catches for 79 yards against the chiefs

six catches for 87 yards but you look at the full season it wasn't very good but the other big thing we got to talk about about is Brady because his career splits with and without Gronk on the field are massive. So who's the other than Gronk, obviously? You look at Mike Evans had 10 targets inside the 10-yard line. Chris Godwin had nine. It's pretty good numbers. You figure Gronkowski is going to get his fair share of those. Brady, obviously, is helped.

But who's impacted the most, either in a good or bad way, by Gronkowski being on the Bucs? Let's go to Heath. Besides O.J. Howard. Evans is the one that I, when Brady signed with Tampa Bay, I was definitely more concerned about Evans than I was Godwin. Because so far in their careers Godwin has worked more in the part of the field that Brady looks to than Evans has and this move just

kind of increases that concern I I dropped Mike Evans out of my top 12 wide receivers I don't imagine that will be the consensus but somebody like if Gronk comes back and is good and is Gronk, that's 20% plus target share that's gone, or another 5% to 10% from what was going to go to O.J. Howard. Well, if you combine, I don't know how you want to factor in Brait, but Howard and Brait combined for 108 targets, 70 catches, 770 yards, and Brait combined for 108 targets. 70 catches, 770 yards, and 5 touchdowns on 108 targets.

I think a second tight end in Tampa Bay is still going to get 3 or 4 targets a game. Okay. So call it 50-ish, something like that. Right. 50 to 60. So is Gronk...

When Gronk was good, he was getting 120 plus. Dave, how about you? Who's impacted the most? Evans is hurt negatively. And I think both Evans and Godwin are going to lose some touchdowns. I think whoever's running the ball in Tampa Bay could lose some serious touchdowns. We're talking about somebody who can come in and Heath's projection was 5.8. I think the ceiling could be closer to eight touchdowns for Gronk

if he can manage to stay healthy. That's a touchdown every other game. I don't think that that's unreasonable if Gronk is Gronk. And so I don't feel so good. I don't feel quite as good about drafting Godwin and Evans now as I did before. I don't think I would take either one in round one now, whereas I would consider Godwin and PPR in round one. And Evans, I think he's going to end up being one of those receivers where

I take him because I know what his track record has been and I know what his potential is, but I still – and that's – I know what his potential has been and that's why he's still kind of a number one receiver for me. But I'm not as excited. Ben, we haven't brought up the Bruce Arians thing, though. He's never been good for tight ends. Does that matter for you with Gronkowski?

No, not really. Most of the tight end splits that we see tend to be related to the actual players. Bruce Arians hasn't always really had great tight ends i was still drafting howard as a potential bounce back guy in really you know later later rounds but i didn't necessarily think those splits applied and brady has all like he's the guy that's actually throwing the football he he's always targeted tight ends he's specifically always targeted gronk it's not like gronk's going to arians without without Brady. I mean, he's going to play with the quarterback that's looked at him all throughout his career.

But the guy that's impacted the most for me is Brady. I think he's a top 10 quarterback now. I mean, he has such good weapons. Well, he's already top 10 right around there for Dave Jamey. I don't know when these are. Oh, these are updated. Okay, Dave just updated his two minutes ago. He's got Brady eighth.

Heath, last update, you have ninth. Jamie's last update was tenth. That was before today. I think, anyway, for Jamie. Definitely for Heath. So tell me, guys, are you moving Tom Brady ahead of Deshaun Watson? No.

Drew Brees. I think Brady's in a weird spot to where I've got him ninth, and he's at the top of the old quarterback tier. I could see easily getting him to eighth, but he's at a point where I'm not going to move him ahead of those quarterbacks that can do something with their legs. Yes, Rob Gronkowski could be a great weapon for him. He already probably had the best pass-catching weapons in the league.

Yeah, I agree with that. I'm not going to move him ahead of Josh Allen, for instance. I could see him at qb8 um but i would be more likely to consider him closer to the top seven tier than the you know the rest of the guys like rather than being a late round quarterback even if he is ranked qb8 or qb10 i think you can start to creep him up and say he could be like a a worthwhile ninth or tenth round pick depending on how late your your league waits on quarterback we'll go heath ben dave rob gronkowski or tyler higby higby gronk higby rob gronkowski or evan ingram ingram ingram double e rob gronkowski Ingram double E Rob Gronkowski or Hayden Hurst Gronk

yeah Gronk Higby what? Hayden Hurst Dave yeah I'm just taking Higby ahead of both those guys I'll take Gronk ahead of Hayden Hurst okay alright well this was our initial reaction to it please check out our Twitch debut tonight of Aidenhurst. Okay. All right. Well, this was our initial reaction to it.

Please check out our Twitch debut tonight. I'll put a link to it in the episode description. And you can find it. I tweeted about it. And so obviously you're going to have to have listened to this podcast by 7 p.m. Eastern. That's when it starts. 7 p.m.

Eastern on Tuesday night. So if you're listening immediately, we're going to have more reaction to the Gronk news and also some NFL draft stuff and mostly your comments and questions that you can ask live. That's the whole point of this exercise. But if you want a link to it, it's in the episode description. It's on our Facebook page. And you can find it on Twitter as well. Okay. Thanks so much to Dave, to Ben, to Heath.

Really appreciate you guys hopping on. Thanks so much for listening, everybody. I'm Adam. and we'll talk to you tomorrow. We've got a Scott Pioli and Daria Gumbawale interview. Thursday, we've got Saquon Barkley plus a little Fantasy Jeopardy. Yeah, we're going to have some fun, play some

just talk some fantasy before the draft, and then we'll have a reaction on Thursday night, reaction on Friday night, likely a reaction on Saturday night as well. Big, big week for our podcast. Thanks for being a part of it. Talk to you soon.