Fantasy Football Today - 🚨 Gurley to the Falcons! Gordon to the Broncos! Who's Better? (03/20 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: March 20, 2020

We react to Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon going to the Falcons and Broncos, respectively. Who do we like better? How do they compare to David Johnson? How involved will they be near the goal line and in the passing game?  'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Castbox, Bullhorn and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @YardsPerGretch, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

More free agency news, more bonus pods from Fantasy Football today. Big time running back news, and Eric Ebron, we will not be covering that on today's show. Eric Ebron going to the Steelers. We'll talk about that. Wait, we're not? We're not? I don't think so. I think Gurley... I'm out of here. Goodbye. I came for the Eric Ebron hot takes, baby. Alright, well, Gurley and Gordon, I think, a little bit more important. So, it's Adam Azer with Dave Richard and Ben Gretsch.

Okay, we've had three running backs, change teams, three prominent names here. David Johnson to the Texans, Todd Gurley to the Falcons, Melvin Gordon to the Denver Broncos. I'll start with Ben. How would you rank those three running backs? I would probably go Gurley won there. And then, I don't know, DJ Gordon. I mean, I would probably rank them all a lot

lower than i i think everyone's going to be down on them but even lower than i think most people would rank them uh we talked about this a little bit on the the bonus pod yesterday when girly got released and we talked about like what were the big lessons and it's kind of don't get in on running backs a year too late and any of guys, it could just be over for them. I still think Gurley and Gordon still have plenty, you know, potential left in the tank. And even DJ, if he was really banged up last year. But you kind of want to be shopping for the next big thing at running back rather than yesterday's big thing. Okay, so he said probably Gurley, then David Johnson, then Melvin Gordon.

Dave, how would you rank these three? So this is how I have it ranked as of now. Subject to change. Card is subject to change. Melvin Gordon is going to be at the top of the list for me. He'll be followed by Gurley, and he'll be followed by David Johnson. And there is potential for all three, but I think Gordon might be the healthiest and most explosive of the trio. And he just got signed to a two-year deal with $13.5 million guaranteed. He wasn't tossed off the scrap heap into Bill O'Brien's waiting hands. He wasn't cut for business reasons um he was a free agent and he got himself probably the most he definitely the most money out of all three running backs and i think there's a

a decent enough opportunity there for him to come through with good enough fantasy numbers in 2020 so that must mean you're you're burying philip lindsey yes which i don't like doing because i thought he was pretty good last year as well and you know a larger role could have been in the cards for him but i think the decision to go out and spend this money on melvin gordon and to bring in a running back with the pedigree of melvin gordon kind of tells you what the broncos are thinking all right ben so dave's got got Melvin Gordon first out of this group. You have Gurley. I guess I'd go with Gurley.

I like the situation better for Gurley, but I think I like Gordon better as a running back. So that's probably Dave likes Gordon the best as a running back here. Yeah, and I don't disagree with that. I think Gordon is fine. I don't think we need to be really worried about him. Had just over 900 yards from scrimmage and nine touchdowns last year in 12 games because he held out, which, you know, in 16 games would pace to 1,200 yards and 12 TDs. The three years prior, he had at least 1,300 yards from scrimmage and 12 TDs every year and was a top eight PPR back every year.

And he didn't even play 16 games in a lot of those seasons. So he was down a little bit on per game production basis in 2019, but not like way down. He's never, he's never really been super efficient, but he's always been very productive. Now, my big concern for him, and it's not that I think that he's over the hill or anything. He's 26 and girly's 25 i mean these guys are not old but my my big concern for gordon is the chargers offense with philip rivers has been among the league leaders almost every single year in the high value touches that i value for running back fantasy production they're very predictive of running back fantasy production that's receptions and green zone touches.

The Chargers use their backs in the green zone a ton. They like to throw to them. Rivers likes to throw to his backs in the green zone. And Eckler and Gordon combined for at least seven touchdowns receiving in, I believe, the last two or three seasons. And you can go back to even before that. Danny Woodhead had multiple six receiving touchdown seasons with with rivers this is an offense that was great um not just receiving touchdowns receptions and and then also rushing touchdowns just great for the types of touches that we like for fantasy so pretty much anywhere gordon went i was going to be concerned about that

because he's never been a hyper efficient back i still think he's very good but somebody who's going to almost certainly lose high value touches and now he's going into a committee with young talented backs on an offense that's not going to be able to score nearly as many points i mean if we're ranking the starting quarterbacks in the league drew lock has to be near the very bottom so that even the upside for these guys is maybe an average offense it's just not a great situation it feels a little bit like leaving on bell to the jets last year where he can still play a lot and and see a lot of touches but it's not going to be a good fantasy offense and that matters so much for a running back production it does feel like he's going to need a lot of touchdowns and a lot of catches too and i would imagine that he could be in line for both just because he's more of a physical running back than Philip Lindsay.

It's not to say that Lindsay can't get it done at the goal line. Ben, I remember telling you before our podcast, he was four for four in touchdown opportunities from two yards or closer last year, but it was only four. And I think Melvin can go in there and handle that duty. And I think that Philip Lindsay's pass passing downs inefficiency makes him risk. I think that's also part of the reason why they got Gordon is because he wasn't a great pass protector. He dropped a bunch of passes. They took that role away from him in the second half of last year and Melvin can pick up for that. So maybe there will be some high-value touches there after all in Denver. Yeah, well, will they get the catches? I think it's to be determined.

If you look at the last five games of the season, that's when Drew Locke started. Phillip Lindsey and Royce Freeman combined for 18 catches in five games, and Freeman had most of them. He had 11. That is a 57.6 catch per season pace for those two running backs. Which isn't good for a whole team's backfield. Well, there may have been fullbacks and other running backs.

I don't know, but those two guys combining for 57.6 catches over 16 games, not very good. But five games of Drew Locke is not necessarily Drew Locke. We don't know what that's going to be. As far as Gurley goes, I mean, you look at the opportunities that Devontae Freeman has had over the years. A ton of red zone carries. Three straight years. So he's had four healthy years of his last five, right? Three straight of um being top five in carries inside the five yard line great touchdown opportunities great opportunities to catch the ball not necessarily a ton of carries per game you know maybe we're like 14 or 15 but a lot of touches and a lot of touchdowns

do you think girly is going to get that big workload with the falcons dave nope i think he's going to end up sharing because we that big workload with the Falcons, Dave? Nope. I think he's going to end up sharing because we've seen that from the Falcons in the past, too. Now, I can't remember if it was 2016 or 2017, but there was a year where both Freeman and Tevin Coleman both had double-digit touchdowns. So there's plenty of meat on the proverbial bone for these running backs to get a lot of work if there is a tandem. I don't see there being a way where the Falcons don't have a tandem, where they add another running back in the draft, whether it's someone of the caliber of DeAndre Swift or J.K. Dobbins or even Cam Akers,

and they come in and they pair that young back with Gurley. But, Dave, didn't Freeman kind of show that he can be an elite running back even with Tevin Coleman? In Gurley's three seasons where he was great, Coleman averaged 7.3, 9.1, and 10.4 carries per game. So even if they split, I think it really comes down to touchdowns in the passing game. Touchdowns on the ground, and then what's he going to do as a pass catcher? Where do you see Gurley falling there?

I'm concerned about it in both cases, just because I'm concerned in general about Gurley holding up, which you've been hearing from me for over a year now. He did hold up for much of last season, but he didn't look the same. He was saved by the 14 total touchdowns that he had in la i i have a hard time i don't want to count on him to get double digit touchdowns in atlanta is it possible are all the facts that you're saying truthful adam of course i don't think it's going to happen

i'm just laying out the case i don't think it is either now i think it might i i think that there's a chance that he can pick up more work in the passing game than what he had last year. Because if a rookie is there, that's a player who probably is not going to be ready to protect Matt Ryan. And probably won't be ready to be effective in the passing game. Whereas Gurley can be a factor there. Yeah, that's a good point. So I think that Gurley can handle passing down's work. Depending on the type of running back they add with Gurley, he could end up being a guy that they prefer at the goal line because he's physical, and that's one thing that he proved last year

is that he could get into the end zone. And it's a better offensive line for him now. But there is risk that you must build into Todd Gurley's fantasy value. Ben, you were going to say, and I'll just say that funny stat, Todd Gurley, according to Pro Football Reference, had 12 carries inside the five-yard line. The Falcons as a team had 11, and Devontae Freeman had one. But that was 2019. The history of Devontae Freeman with the Falcons has been a lot of carries near the goal line while also sharing some with Tevin Coleman.

Okay, your thought there, Ben. Well, yeah, I mean, I think we definitely have to be concerned about Gurley's health. We all know that. But I'm reading between the lines here a little bit, and I think teams tell us what their intentions are. And we heard that the Falcons made a pretty strong run to try to acquire him via trade. They were the one, or maybe there was one other team.

Miami was also in the mix. Miami was the other one. But they were actually trying to make that happen, which if you look at their cap situation, it's bad. They couldn't have done that. They would have had to take on a lot more. His cap hits were a lot more his cap hits were a lot higher under his current contract so acquiring him via trade as opposed to signing him for what they signed him for i think it was six million um would have been meant would have meant

cutting more players and doing some things but they were still pursuing that as much as they could i think they really wanted to get him and then you you add in that he gets cut and within 24 hours they've acquired him so to me it looks like the falcons really wanted to bring him back in obviously he's from from georgia went to the university of georgia um i i'm reading that and saying okay they want to make him their lead back and i'm kind of expecting now that where they maybe were going to draft a running back in the second round they they'll go in the third or the fourth and be a little bit later in the draft than a lot of the names Dave just said and get like a secondary back. Like when they added Ido Smith to be behind Devontae Freeman. I mean, I think that's what they'll do.

They'll get like a less notable name. And if that does happen, if we see them continue to kind of tip their hand that they want to make Gurley their lead back, then his situation is the best of these three backs that we're talking about, these three veterans. Freeman caught 59 balls last year in this offense, even as he looked very over the hill for the most part. I think Gurley's receiving role could be there, and I agree with you, Adam, the touchdowns could be. This is good offense.

I think this is one of the best possible landing spots in the entire league for Gurley. It is, but I don't know what to make of the 6.7 yards per catch last year for Gurley. I mean, talk about a lack of explosiveness. It was evident in the yards per carry. It was evident watching him, and the yards per catch is just pathetic. He just did nothing with the ball. So I hope he gets that opportunity.

By the way, that opportunity in terms of catches hasn't been super consistent. Catches per game for Devontae Freeman in four healthy seasons, 4.9, 3.4, 2.8, and 4.2. All right, I want to make one last point here. Freeman, last five games of the year, he was on pace for, let me just get the exact numbers, for 246 carries. In his first nine games before his injury, he was on pace for 190 carries. So 56 more carries. That was his pace in the final five games. Why? Because the Falcons went 4-1, and they allowed 20.4 points per game. The first nine games, they went 2-7. They allowed 28.8 points per game.

So the defense got a lot better. They allowed 8.4 fewer points per game, and Devontae Freeman was used as a workhorse back on pace for 246 carries. So that is a big number. It's not going to lead the league. And the catches, by the way, did not decline.

So I just thought that was pretty interesting, and maybe it gives you a sign that if their defense is better, they'll run the ball more, and they might use Todd Gurley in a pretty nice role. Now let's do a few questions to finish off our little bonus show. Would you rather draft Calvin Ridley or

Todd Gurley? Ridley. Not even close. Would you rather draft Cortland Sutton or Melvin Gordon? Cortland Sutton, also not even close. I'll take Melvin. Would you rather draft Cortland Sutton or

Todd Gurley? Sutton. I have sutton over girley would you rather draft devin singletary or your favorite running back that we discussed on today's show as of this moment it's singletary but melvin gordon seemed rather close to signing with buffalo it seemed there were some rumors that he was going to go there. So are the bills shopping for a running back too? If they add one, that will obviously hurt Devin Singletary's upside. I'll take, uh,

I think I'll take Gurley. Okay. We'll do one more. Okay. Todd Gurley for, for Ben Melvin Gordon for Dave, our favorite running backs from today's show, or Darren Waller. I'm taking the running back.

Running back? Okay. All right, guys. Good show. Thank you. All right. Who's ready for my nine-minute dissertation on Eric Ebron? Next bonus pod just dave by himself talking about eric ebron that's dave and ben i'm adam we'll hit you up on monday with another edition of fantasy football today

he was a burly tight end from north carolina