Fantasy Football Today - Guys Heath HATES! Players To Avoid When Drafting Dynasty (Fantasy Football Dynasty Podcast)

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Starting point is 00:00:56 Visit your GTA Volvo retailer or go to volvocars.ca for full details. Welcome to Fantasy Football Today, dynasty. and we'll be right back with more of the latest news. Welcome to fantasy football today. Dynasty. I am your host Heath Cummings joined today by Kevin Coleman. And today we're talking about guys I hate. I

Starting point is 00:01:19 will explain that more in a little bit. But first, Kevin, thank you so much for being here. You've been on the show before, but it's always great to have you. Tell the people where they can find your work and what you've got going on these days. Yeah, man. Appreciate you having me. Um, I love coming in here in the summer as my summer is off and, uh, you know, about a year ago we went independent. Uh, so we used to work at football guys where you were from and in fantasy pros is where we worked at. And, uh, we started our own little brand on sub stack and on YouTube and it's called the Debbie Royale. It basically covers everything dynasty

Starting point is 00:01:45 redraft, Debbie, which we'll probably get into a little bit. And we've been going strong for about a year, we just crossed 1000 subs on Substack last week. So that's really exciting for us. And it's been a lot of fun. You know, I can't imagine the kind of the thrill of doing that starting your own thing. And, and probably also some of the challenges as well. I'm sure it's not all a positive experience, but it sounds like, I mean, just kind of watching from afar, you've really been building something.

Starting point is 00:02:12 So congratulations on that looking forward to seeing where it's going. And, you know, real quick, just tell people like if they want to be a part of it, like what specifically they should go search for and where Yeah, you can just type in the devarow on sub stack and then you'll pop up and you can join there. We do have a Patreon that offers a bunch of other stuff that you can find.

Starting point is 00:02:30 So the devarow Patreon, if you want to just go to the YouTube channel, we do YouTube videos as well. It's called the devarow YouTube. So just type it in Google, you'll find us. Or you can follow me on Twitter at devorow's underscore 22. And if you want to ask any questions, I can help you out there.

Starting point is 00:02:44 So listen, I think Harry did a fantastic job. We already had a couple comments in the chat. That thumbnail is nothing short of incredible, amazing thumbnail. It's me apparently looking like I hate something. Good job, Harry. He's the guy who makes this all work. And we're very appreciative of him. I do want to say at the start, because you guys know me, you've been listening to this show long enough, like I'm, there's a little tongue in cheek here. I've said probably a million times, just because I have somebody on a bus list

Starting point is 00:03:15 doesn't mean I think they're terrible. Just because I think somebody's overvalued in dynasty doesn't mean I hate them. Let's have some fun today with guys I hate. Of course, we always start with three questions for our guest. And you kind of heard it in the title of Kevin's Substack and his YouTube show, Debbie. So I think we've got a lot of people here who love dynasty fantasy football and haven't quite dipped

Starting point is 00:03:39 their toe into the world of Debbie. So maybe just take a minute and tell people what Debbie is, and how and why they should get involved. Yeah, it was created by Scott Fish, the OG of everything and Scott Fishbowl there. He started it. Really, it's just Debbie is just a little bit of a steroids dynasty, a little bit on steroids, just a little bit. It's a little taste for you and all you do is you draft college kids. So if you like baseball, it's like a farm system and so you can add college players into your dynasty rookie drafts or your startup drafts However, you want to do it and like then you just draft them and then they're tradable assets now

Starting point is 00:04:14 So you want to draft Arch Manning you can draft Arch Manning this year and then you have him and you can trade him for other Dynasty players so it just gives you like a little fun like a real general manager type feel there The best way to get started though is just do one round of it and just see gives you like a little fun, like a real general manager type feel there. Uh, the best way to get started though, is just do one round of it and just see if you like it. Like I always say, just do one round at the end of your rookie drafts and then just add one class of players. So you want next year's class if they're eligible to come out next year. And then you draft them and you see how it goes.

Starting point is 00:04:37 And then I think it's, it's fun. It gets way deeper than that and we don't have time for that, but it's just the start of it. Scott fish kind of created it. He's amazing. And it just kind of has evolved from there. So really, I think it's good for people to hear that it could be just as simple as creating another spot on your practice squad, adding a spot to your rookie draft and just having a guy that you stash until he comes into the NFL. And

Starting point is 00:04:59 then you can get, as you said, much, much deeper. I hear of people who have full rosters of just college players. And I you know, that leads into the second question, because I get the question a lot in the months after the rookie drafts over, or the NFL drafts over people have done their rookie drafts. And of course, what they want to do, they want to think about the next rookie draft. And I always tell people like, I'm really honest, most of my rookie research for a given draft class starts about the time of wild card weekend.

Starting point is 00:05:31 And then I just cram because with everything I do during the season here, I don't have time to follow a lot of college football. Thankfully, we've got someone like Kevin who does. And so I had a question in my mailbag last week that says, what class are you most excited about? Or what rookie picks are you most excited about? 2026, 2027, or 2028. And my general response was that as a rule, I always start off, next year's picks are the most valuable

Starting point is 00:05:59 to me, the following year's about half price and the following year's about half price. But different classes are more valuable. to me the following year is about half price and the following years about half price, but different classes are more valuable. Do you have any feelings right now about the future rookie draft classes and which ones are going to be deeper or weaker? Yeah, I would say the 26th class is a big giant question mark right now. So everybody listening out there, the one position that I think could be a landmine is maybe quarterback. There's still a lot of quarterbacks out there question marks. Drew Aller, Lenora Sellers, you're talking K Club Nick, you're talking Arch Manning,

Starting point is 00:06:32 but I think he's coming out in 2027 based on what his family says. And so like that's the one position in 26 class where I'm like, Hey, they could have some guys there. But outside of that, it's, it's, it's pretty barren, but the 27 class, it could be absolutely loaded, Heath. I'm telling you, the wide receivers, you talk about Jeremiah Smith from Ohio State, Cam Coleman from Auburn, Ryan Williams from Alabama, the list goes on. Plus, Arch Manning could come out that year. DJ Lagway is at Florida. He's a quarterback out there. He's really good. Running backs are still kind of in flux right now, so we haven't seen that. But if there is some running backs that hit, you're talking about the 27 classes being one of the, you remember the 23 class that we talked about the 23 class. That's really what you

Starting point is 00:07:11 see with the 27. But I think the kicker here is the 27 classes deep at wide receiver, which we know in dynasty, that's the, that's the cornerstone, right? And so that's going to inflate the value even more. And so that's why I tell people all the time, like if it's going to inflate the value, they don't really that's why I tell people all the time, like, if it's going to inflate the value, they don't really have to hit. It's just about the value of the pick. So the value of the picks going up, you can get legitimate guys from a veteran side to go win your leagues too.

Starting point is 00:07:33 So like, there's a flip side to this, but the 27th class is one of the most fun classes I've looked at. I mean, I was going through, uh, we're doing a rookie mock right now for the YouTube channel and the 27th class. So like, I think we picked eight wide receivers in the first round. And that's how deep that class is. And there's guys that haven't even hit yet that we don't know. So that's the most exciting class.

Starting point is 00:07:52 26 has some question marks. I would definitely flip those for veterans if I'm a contender. I really have been going out and be actively doing that. But the 27 picks, man, they're gold. And if you can get some of them now, they're just going to increase in value. So are you to the point now? I mean, I think in a rebuild, it's easy to say this, but if you're just kind of a middle of the road team, not sure what direction you're going and somebody offers you a first round pick for a player or you're still doing your rookie draft now and they're throwing in a first to move up, would you just flat out rather take the 2027 pick than the 26 pick?

Starting point is 00:08:23 Yes. Yeah. 100% because I think from a value perspective, Dynasty is a weird, it's a mental game with guys and managers out there and just from that perspective, that class is only going to go up and as soon as Arch decides to go back to school next year, it's going to that value pick is going to be through the roof. It might be the most valuable pick we've seen in this format in a long time. That's awesome, awesome stuff. So go get those 2027 first

Starting point is 00:08:44 round picks. Question number three, and I guess it's four because I asked to follow up, but is there one dynasty vet that you think is way overpriced right now? I'm going to get some hate on this one, but it's Saquon. It's Saquon Barkley. And it's not, I love Saquon. Everybody out there listening, like obviously he had a phenomenal year last year, but it's just a value time bomb in dynasty at the running backs by. So there's of the top 50 dynasty assets right now. There's only 10 running backs, you know, who's older than 26 Saquon. That's it. There's only one player older than 26 in the top 50 assets. And we've already seen this happen with CMC. Like we saw him get injured. We seen the kind of the value drop there and now he's going for seconds. And as much as I love Saquon having money dynasty and he

Starting point is 00:09:29 might be that asset, you just hold on, right? You're like, Hey, he's gonna be the Travis Kelsey of the running backs. So I'm just going to hold on to him because he gives me a positional advantage. Um, I do think that like at this point max value, if he's still being priced at dynasty running back for, I don't lie him now like tearing down getting down to those running backs those rookies that you see out there the Travians if you like RJ Harvey if you like those players and then getting assets like I said the 27 first or the 26 first or whatever you could add to it. But to me it's just I understand you know with Saquon's talent Derek Kenway we've seen these guys kind of age but we have seen Barkley get injured. Like last year was kind of an outlier in terms of what he's been the last three or four years and to me he's just way too overpriced for the position he plays. I love that because I've got a list of like 13 guys that I'm going to say that I hate after the break and you picked the guy who's worth more than all of them. So if there's

Starting point is 00:10:20 anybody that gets hate, you're welcome.. You're welcome. You're welcome. That's a good friend providing cover like that. Let's take our first break and we'll get into Guys I Hate. Discover the magic of BetMGM Casino, where the excitement is always on deck. Pull up a seat and check out a wide variety of table games with a live dealer. From roulette to blackjack, watch as a dealer hosts your table game and live chat with them throughout your experience to feel like you are actually at the casino. The excitement doesn't stop there, with over 3,000 games to choose from, including fan favorites like Cash Eruption, UFC Gold Blitz, and more. Make deposits instantly to jump in on the fun and make same-day withdrawals if you win.

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Starting point is 00:12:04 but nothing more exciting than, hey, we're a lot of cool promos that run in during our breaks, but nothing more exciting than, hey, we're close enough to football season, and we're going to start advertising football games. That's fantastic. It's going to be a long wait. We had a comment in the chat. Hate is a strong word. He, again, it's tongue in cheek.

Starting point is 00:12:19 You guys are the ones that say that I hate these guys because I'm too low on them in dynasty. Let's talk and start with some, I call it old news because I've spent most of the off season, at least some of these guys I've been lower than consensus for a couple of years. Three, four guys, Brian Robinson Jr. currently RB 26 by consensus rankings. I used fantasy pros consensus to kind of establish where the consensus is at. I have him at RB 40. I, I get really, I have a hard time valuing these guys that, that I don't think are actually feature backs or have anything really close to top 12 upside. And also feel like they could lose all their value this season.

Starting point is 00:13:01 And that's kind of how I view Brian Robinson. RB 40 is awfully low, but there's a lot of rookies in this class that I like. they could lose all their value this season. And that's kind of how I view Brian Robinson. Harvey 40 is awfully low, but there's a lot of rookies in this class that I like. Where are you at on Brian Robinson? Yeah, he's a tough one because he's not efficient, right? The efficiency is so bad that you're like, man, cause like when I was going through the numbers with him ranked 35th and yards per touch last year, 37th and yards after contact per attempt. Not great.

Starting point is 00:13:24 Um, he does get the goal line touches. So really he just becomes that inefficient goal line vulture type guy. But I think Jane Daniels hurts that for him. Like I think we saw that a little bit last year. Um, and then the injuries, you know, I think one of those things, you just the durability is a question mark too, doesn't offer much in the receiving game. Um, I know Ja'Corey Merrick's, uh, oh gosh, I'm gonna forget. Yeah. Crossit. Yeah. Cross Kimerit. Like I know he's getting buzzed. I don't know what that means in

Starting point is 00:13:48 OTAs, but he is getting buzzed. So like if he becomes that receiving maybe guy back there, um, it's just, I hate inefficient running back to low ceiling guys that game script and dependent. Like they just, they, they are, they worry, they worry me a lot. So I don't mind the ranking. I think he is, he should be a little lower out there, um, but he does get goal line touches. So it's not like it's a dead horse when you do talk about him as a dynasty asset. Um, it's just someone that if I can pivot off of them, I would, I agree. I think he's a, he's a tough asset to value. I mean, I think it's a pretty good chance.

Starting point is 00:14:20 You can get a second round pick for him if you still have a rookie draft this year and you might be able to throw a 20, 26 along with him and pick up one of those 2027 firsts that Kevin talked about. And so, or, or just try to go, go to a guy like I would even prefer someone like Travis Etienne who everybody's convinced has already lost his job to Patial Tooten, but at least if Travis Etienne has a role, it's a type of role with his PPR ability that he could give you some upside. I just don't see that upside with Brian Robinson. Let's go to the second guy on this list.

Starting point is 00:14:53 It's Brandon Iyuk and it's not anything about his talent. I have him at wide receiver 44, consensus has him at wide receiver 31. It's the fact, and we've talked about this before, I'll be quick on these guys because I've talked about them a lot. We've really only seen one great season from IU. He's now going to be 27 years old, I think before he's fully healthy and we don't know what this year is going to look like. It's just a low volume and not concentrated target tree in San Francisco. And he seems like he's never quite happy there.

Starting point is 00:15:26 And he's certainly not healthy right now. Are you buying low on this injury for our yoke? So this is a, to me, I've been so somehow I've been, I've been scooping up by you this year, so like, I've been slowly scooping them up, but to me, this is just a value play, not in so much of like a fantasy points play and that might sound like just counter intuitive there. But I do think that like, he might have a slow start to the year, but all the injury guys out there that I trust,

Starting point is 00:15:49 they seem to think he could start week one. Like they do think that like he's on track, he's faster there. But even then, like, let's say he comes back weeks, five to eight, kind of slow play. He probably had dipped down a little bit, but people forget how you cause getting value at what wide receiver nine lashed off season, like 10, very, very high. I was low on them then too. It was easier to get below on them. Then though, I think I remember you, I think we were talking about him and you were low on him too. So like if you're in your camp, yeah, absolutely. You'd be like, well, I'm

Starting point is 00:16:13 not going to buy him now. But if my camp, if I'm looking at it from this perspective, if he's sitting at wide receiver 31, the season starts, he doesn't start or whatever the case may be, he might go down a little bit, but as soon as he gets out there and let's say has a couple of big games, I mean, people are going gonna value him instantly as a wide receiver too, right in that offense Depending on what's going on with McCaffrey kiddos getting a little older. Do you believe in Jennings and Pierce? Oh, I don't know But if I you demands targets right away, then you get a return on that investment right now It's a risky investment. Like it's one of those things are you looking at like yeah, but he could also just be slow playing all year

Starting point is 00:16:42 Then he's unhappy they trade him like, there's definitely possibilities on the other way. I'm just buying that the talent can come back where he is talented enough to earn those targets on the stretch. And then he gives you a valuable like piece right an asset that you can either move, you can hold if you want, like to me, he's sitting in that perfect range where I don't mind taking the risk and the value right now. I think that really depends on cost. You definitely bring up a

Starting point is 00:17:03 good point that buying players that you think are really good that are currently hurt is generally a good value proposition because we just probably need one good game from Brandon IU for people who believe in him, believe that he's back and pay whatever the price was before. Would you trade a first for him right now? I would trade a 26 first, maybe like a late first. If I'm like a true contender and I think he can bounce back, but that's probably higher than most,

Starting point is 00:17:28 but he's not really going, I mean, some deals he's going for straight up for Jayden Reed. I don't mind taking the IUK side there. And in another deal I saw Jaylen Wright in a third. Oh man, I'll take IUK all day. I would definitely take him at that cost. Yes, I don't think, I'm not sure you're getting wide receiver 31 value if you're trading him for Jaylen Wright in a third. Yeah. Yeah. 100% buying there. Let's

Starting point is 00:17:47 get to my guy. Number three, Terry McClure and Brian Robinson Jr's teammate. He's wide receiver 23 in the consensus rankings, wide receiver 34 for me, another guy that I've been low on for a long time. I've said it 17 times this off season already. Like Jaden Daniels is great. And Jaden Daniels did help him score touchdowns last year. But that's the only thing that changed. The targets were down, the catches were right where they've always been, the yards were right where they've always been. He just scored at a 13% clip instead of scoring at a 4% clip like he had his entire career. And this is a guy who turns 30 September the 15th.

Starting point is 00:18:27 So eight days after the season starts, if my math is correct, I don't want to value that as a wide receiver too. And I think there's likely touchdown regression coming. Yeah. I mean, I put on here, I mean, he averaged four and a half touchdowns his first four years, right. And then now all of a sudden 13. So the regressions there, I don't know about Debo. Like I saw the route. I think he's still running that route that I saw in social media the other day. Like I know like there is something there, but they're going to

Starting point is 00:18:51 scheme touches for Debo at some point. I mean, they gave up what they gave up to get in there. I do think like the red zone trust with Daniels is something like, I do think we'll see touchdowns, but I think that regression is going to be there to me. Like if he's going to value a wider receiver, 23, when I'm looking at Terry, I don't mind having him on my roster. If you have him and you're a contender, you could probably plug in wide receiver two numbers and you'd be pretty happy. But the age cliff is real, right? As soon as they hit 30, nobody wants you. It's just, it was rough for me to find out too, as I'm transitioned at 36. But then when I'm looking at just where you can move him for,

Starting point is 00:19:22 a perfect piece that I've been trying to move him for Is like where she rise like if depending on what you think of her she and where he's at He's getting value like wide receiver 19 or 20 If you could just tier up a little bit and you can give a second or a third like whatever you think you can tier Up to go get rishi if someone doesn't believe in rishi or they really believe like Xavier worthy is going to be that piece and stuff That's how you look at terry is tier up piece. Like if I can add a pick with Terry to get up into that, maybe that 18 to 20 or 16 to 20 range and wide receivers, that's a very good kind of strategy to look at with McClearn. I think that's an excellent way to look at and I've talked about this before, like the wide receiver position, you talked about there being nobody over 26 in the top 50 in terms of dynasty value. I have one wide receiver over 26 in my top 24 wide receivers.

Starting point is 00:20:10 Like I can't put Terry McClellan ahead of all those guys at five or six years older than most of them. So it really is an age proposition. And just the fact that I think he is a good number two wide receiver, but you don't value a good number two wide receiver that's 30 years old as a wide receiver to in dynasty. That's not the way that it works. The final guy, I'm not even going to make any qualifications on him. This is probably the guy that I hate the most in terms of dynasty rankings and it has nothing to do with him

Starting point is 00:20:39 as a personal as a person. But Evan Ingram is currently tied in to 12 in the consensus dynasty rankings. A lot of people very excited about him joining Sean Payton and the Denver Broncos. Also very excited about RJ Harvey catching 80 plus passes because Sean Payton's teams always throw to running backs. And I just like to remind people that generally speaking, a team's running back targets and a team's tight end targets negatively correlate. Most teams are going to throw 50 to 65% of their passes to their wide receivers. And so you're going to have 35 to 40% for the running backs and tight ends. You don't usually get both.

Starting point is 00:21:17 So if you think Evan Ingram is going to have a big year this year, and really it would be his first or second in the last seven. Um, that's the bet you're making. Ingram will turn 31 before the season starts and has not scored more than four touchdowns in a season since 2017. Can you offer some optimism for Evan Ingram? Like it seems like the entire rest of the industry does. So, well, the only optimism that people are out there going to do is going to say, well, the Titan position is barren after whatever, you know, we, we hear it all the time tied

Starting point is 00:21:46 in five or six. So if he just scores some touchdowns, you know, he gets those touchdowns on a weekend, week out basis, then he's already a Titan one like that. I think is where the optimism is at for him. I just struggle with Denver because they have a really good defense, right? And that's gonna, that's one of those things. I think Bo Nicks, you know, for as much as like he developed last year and you saw, he does target his wide receivers. Like, and, and when you're looking at that room,

Starting point is 00:22:09 I think part of it is, you know, you know, Marvin Mims could have a step up. I know a lot of people believe in Mims. Courtland Sutton is one of the most, more of the more underrated guys out there. Like you target share everything that could go up to 25% in my opinion. Um, Bailey's there. I don't know what people think about him, but like you said, I do think that the running back is going to eat into Ingram's kind of usage a little bit as targets. And there's so many guys out there from just a dynasty perspective that you might be able to pivot to based on their value.

Starting point is 00:22:35 I'd rather have John Smith if we're going to go old. I'll just go take him from Miami. I'll go down there and tear down a little bit. So I don't hate it, but I also don't trust Sean Payton whatsoever with any of his fantasy assets. We've seen it before with running backs too. That's why I'm not really that high on RJ Harvey, Harvey, excuse me, because of that. So I guess if you believe in volume that he's gonna get,

Starting point is 00:22:54 and he's talented still, I guess he's a top eight guy, but I just don't know, I don't believe in that volume. I don't know where that volume's gonna come from. I think Bo Nek's gonna spread it around, and I think that it's just gonna be, hey, did he score a touchdown this week? Okay. I'm happy with him on my roster. I think the only reason that Evan Ingram is still considered by fantasy football managers is because he got to spend a few years with Doug Peterson and that might have been the

Starting point is 00:23:15 only guy Doug Peterson was good for, but Doug Peterson's great for the tight end position. The other thing I would say is you brought up a good point about the way people view the tight end position. Like it's a barren wasteland. I know this guy's name. He got a lot of targets in the past. I'm going to put him in the top 12. I would just say that we need to make sure we're careful that it's a really barren position

Starting point is 00:23:37 if you're looking for somebody who could score 12 plus fantasy points per game. But if you're looking for nine to 11, there's probably 18 guys that could do that. So I don't think you want, like if you're going to do that, go with a 25 year old who could score nine to 11 points, not a 31 year old. Now we've got a new grouping here. Those were the old news, the guys that I've hated for a while, at least in terms of my rankings. These are the guys I used to love or used to be at least matching consensus on. And now I find myself quite a bit lower. CJ Stroud in the consensus fantasy pros ranking still QB8. I think he was QB7 for me a year ago. And that was after the fantastic rookie year. Last year we saw,

Starting point is 00:24:20 listen, one of the reasons he was QB7 going into the year is he had Nico Collins, he had Stefan Diggs. We were still excited about Tank Del because he hadn't had the major injury to his leg and Stroud was coming off pretty much only success now. We've seen some failure Diggs is gone Dell's probably not playing this year We got a couple rookies trying to take their places and the offensive line looks absolutely awful. I Have a hard time valuing him higher than some of the higher upside plays at the position. Is he just a better guy in super flex because the floor is better, but not in one QB? Yeah.

Starting point is 00:24:54 I mean, my big thing with him, and I wrote it down in the notes, safe floor, cap ceiling. And I think part of it is that offensive line is a real concern. You know they've had 18 different starting the offensive lineman the last two years. Like that's, you know, who knows that CJ Stroud? Yeah, he does because of the way you saw, I mean, I let the sacks and the scrambles that we saw last year. And I think that's what happened last year. So the only had two regular season games with three plus scores.

Starting point is 00:25:16 That's the missing piece. If you're not talking about a scrambling quarterback for fantasy, like if you're looking for, you need to score touchdowns. Um, and now I think the one underrated piece that people aren't talking about too much is Nick Kaylee is coming there to call plays. So he's a Patriots Rams guy. So when you think of like what's the offensive scheme going to look like, you're going to see a much more balanced attack.

Starting point is 00:25:33 I think that's why they brought in Chubb. I think mixing in those guys from a running back standpoint, you're going to see a lot of volume there. And then they historically those those trees in terms of play calling have a really low a dot, right right so that's going to be looking at like consistency sure like he's going to hit his reads he's going to get those quick reads out he's going to do those things but maybe we don't see those big plays anymore right we'll see the occasional nico collins bomb we're going to see that but i think that's why they

Starting point is 00:25:57 went and chart you know targeted jaden higgins noel and kirk and those type of guys because it's going to be very quick a dot, quick outs, those types of reads. And that's great from an NFL perspective, but from a fantasy perspective that really severely caps CJ Stroud. And you'd like we mentioned with the tight end position, the quarterback position too, between eight and 14, not a lot really dictates those guys in terms of value because I think from a fantasy points per game or an expected fantasy points per game perspective, they're very close.

Starting point is 00:26:24 And if they don't rush and they don't have a rushing upside, you can really just wait on QBs and you probably get the same output from those guys. Well, I think that's a very good point because like, I don't actually hate CJ Stroud, he's in the same tier as my QB eight, but I don't really want to value any of those guys at QB eight. I would rather take the lower cost. So I think if you can up, if you can trade CJ Stroud to somebody else, for somebody else in that queue in that clear, uh, tier and add assets, that's,

Starting point is 00:26:55 that's the way to move at the quarterback position number two, and the guys I used to love hurts more than anybody else on this list, but it's James Cook. I've talked a little bit about this on our, our big show, Kevin, but I was a big James Cook guy last year. He, the breakout happened, but it wasn't in a way that I believed in or the way that I expected he actually averaged fewer touches per game last year. They chopped it up between three backs. Now he's in at least a miniature contract dispute.

Starting point is 00:27:26 And I don't, I've got, there's been no signal from the bills that they want to change the way they distribute touches at the running back position. So I think we're looking at a true committee with Cook leading it and some likely touchdown regression. RB 10 just seems a little high for me. And I think when you're comparing them, you mentioned the rookies earlier. So it's James Cook versus Hampton versus Henderson versus Harvey versus Judkins. All those guys. I prefer three of those rookies over cook. This is all about what you expect from him. I think this is a cause I like James Cook too. Like I liked them last year. Like and I was, I was, I was on your train with him. Um, and that was the dream. 2024 is a dream

Starting point is 00:28:02 for James because we're like, Hey, we've got it. We finally hit it. If you look at him as an asset this year, like as like going to be a running back one, I think that's a mistake. But if you look at him at a running back to what you can maybe have the volume with the running back one spikes, that's, that's that can happen. I think the really, the thing that just stands out to me when I go through his profile this year, you know, he only had 239 touches still like, and even though he scored the touchdowns, um, he only had four games with 20 plus touches. And you really want to see your draft of as a running back one, which he's currently ranked at, you want to see more than 20 touches a game.

Starting point is 00:28:34 You want to see that average go up there. Um, and while he did finish running back 11 in points per game, he was running back 26 and expected fantasy points. So, you know, whether you believe in expected fantasy points or not, he overachieved. Now, will that regress? I think that's the big thing when you're looking at it. And I think it's always Josh Allen's gonna

Starting point is 00:28:51 vulture those touchdowns too in the red zone. The rushing upside from him hurts you there. If you look at him, if he's getting priced at running back 10, I think that's too high. You should definitely trade. If that value is, then if you value him in your league. But if he's going running back 16, 17, I don't mind buying it again for another year because I do think that he's going to have a very solid running back too. I don't believe so much in the other

Starting point is 00:29:14 running backs behind him. Like I know there's some very big truthers out there for some of those guys, but I think Cook is their best running back. So if I'm valuing that at that price, I don't mind him. Like I don't hate him. I don't love him. He's kind of in the middle for me where like it just based on the league's value. Number three on the guys I used to love Garrett Wilson and I still have to love him a little bit because he is still my most rostered starting wide receiver. So I'm not like I've not found the ability to sell Garrett Wilson at the cost that I see, which is wide receiver 13. And I do, like I've, I've hedged on this a little bit because I don't like the way that

Starting point is 00:29:52 I'm starting to feel about Garrett Wilson. He's still 24 years old. He turns 25 in July. He's still a very young guy. He's only played three years in the NFL, but it does kind of feel like, and I feel his way about Chris Olave too. He's just valued much lower, that we've had expectations for these guys as future top 10 wide receivers.

Starting point is 00:30:10 And his ranking at wide receiver 13 suggests that is a future top 10 wide receiver, I think. And I hope that he is, but we've seen three seasons now. It kind of looks like he is what he is. And I'm not sure even if there is this big ceiling that we've not seen yet, Justin Fields is the quarterback to get that from him. I know I love Garrett Wilson so much. Let me give you some positivity here. Like let me throw some positivity stuff in here. Cause he's on all my rosters. So Tanner Engstrom is coming over as the offensive coordinator there. And I do think what they're going to do is they're going to move him in inside of the slot more and he's been what they're gonna do is they're gonna move him in

Starting point is 00:30:45 Inside a slot more and he's been more efficient there So when you're looking at his yards per outrun for his career almost two yards per outrun in the slot as opposed to like 1.5 Out wide so that's good So I do think if from a from a from a standpoint of like offensive system and scheme This could be the best scheme he's ever played in right and probably is gonna be the best game He's ever played in so that's expectations that could have that ceiling. Wide receiver rooms, it's gross. You know, really, really bad. It's just still have a soft spot in my heart for Josh Reynolds, who I loved coming out of college, but that's another show. Coralie Coralie,

Starting point is 00:31:16 Winnold, I love Xavier Gibson because I thought you were going to give me return points last year in SFB. That didn't happen. Um, but like the Wilson's got to dominate those targets there. And I do think the field's thing, I know fields is not a great quarterback, but he's going to last year in SFB that didn't happen. But like Wilson's gonna dominate those targets there. And I do think the field's thing, I know field's not a great quarterback, but he's gonna hyper target the heck out of Garrett Wilson, which he did with DJ Moore a couple of years ago. And DJ Moore was able to put up realistically

Starting point is 00:31:35 wide receiver one number. So I still think he's a top 12 talent. And I think that scheme wise, we should be very happy with what's coming over there. It's just, it's not a, it's not really him. It's the QB position. So if we see fields elevate himself just a little bit, I think he's going to be fine this year. I just think from a dynasty perspective, you just get worried because again, what it

Starting point is 00:31:54 feels doesn't pan out. Okay. Now they're on another quarterback for the fourth year for Garrett Wilson. I think that's where probably the expectations get a little nerve wracking, but I still think he's in the best game he's ever played in. So that gives me hope. I still have hope for my boy, Garrett Wilson. Well, and I want to say,

Starting point is 00:32:10 like those numbers you gave for yards per outrun, very encouraging for the slot usage if we get more of that. But even so, almost two yards per outrun is not generally what we're talking about when we're talking about a top 12 wide receiver. I'm just trying to be optimistic here. They give me three. We could get up there, okay? So let's move on to number four, DJ Moore. Again, I could have said, I'm starting to feel like Garrett Wilson is DJ Moore early in his career because there's a lot of similarities there. DJ Moore's wide receiver 25 in the consensus rings. I'm not too far off of that at wide receiver 30, although I'm getting more nervous just because it doesn't seem like, and I'm reading

Starting point is 00:32:56 between the lines here, what else do we have to do in June? But the vibes I'm getting from Chicago are not that Ben Johnson took this job and said, good, I've already got my number one wide receiver, my AR, AR, ARSB and DJ more. He doesn't seem like he views them like that at all. No, I think he thinks he got his ARSB with Luther Burden. I really do. Like I think that's his guy. I know he's realms there and everything there. I couldn't be more out on DJ more than anybody else. Like I have, I've, I've been trying to get off of DJ more pretty much all off season.

Starting point is 00:33:26 And because just because what you said, I think that with Bird and Colston, Doonze like that's his system now. And he's going to be looking at those guys. He's completely boomer bust, but I just don't think even last year wasn't very good. 1.44 yards per out run. That was a career low.

Starting point is 00:33:41 The vibe meter is not, that's a real thing. The vibe meter is not good in Chicago right now. I mean, DJ couldn't even like I think it was he couldn't even he didn't remember who they drafted like there was just you can just tell and more is already kind of had a diva niche and him most wide receivers do. But if that's the case after this year, they can get out of that contract. And then we're looking at another Deontay Johnson situation like

Starting point is 00:34:02 where it's now he's bouncing around, does he find a home? And I think that's a problem. So like, if I can tear off, like DJ Moore to me is a value at 20-26 first, because I think the 20-26 first, like I talked about a little lower based on value, I don't mind pivoting to a 26 first, even if I think it's a less value, because I do think you can get other players with that first that if you're contending, like that might be the pivot, like go get a 26 first, or if someone still believes in more having a good season this year as a wide receiver to that's a good value for him. I think right now in leagues that you can kind of move him for. that I've acquired a lot in the last couple of years. Major disappointment last year that was lessened because he scored so many touchdowns. And there's a way to frame it to say, you know, he just wasn't healthy at the beginning of the year because of the car accident and he got more involved later in the year and he's still okay. I just, he's currently tied into eight in the

Starting point is 00:35:00 rankings and I'm a little lower on most of the vets. I think you're right. It's just that people look at this tight end position. They don't want to make the bet on the young guy who might be. I'll just try to get one more year out of the old guy who is he turns 30 the day before the season starts, had 69 targets and did not miss a game last season. I think that there is a possibility that the floor could just completely fall out of Mark Andrews value in the first month of the season. And the upside seems like at this point is probably just a mid tight end one.

Starting point is 00:35:31 Yeah, every time I think about drafting Mark Andrews, I just remember him dropping that ball in the playoffs and I'm like, ah, I can't do it. But I think the numbers, the numbers that stand out to me is if this defense is good, it's a problem for Mark Andrew. So he only played 50% of snaps when Baltimore led last year. He played 65% or more when they were trailing, but this defense could be dominant again. Look at the game Humphrey, there is a spot where this defense is just one of the most, the best defenses in the NFL. That hurts him. And I think as much as I likely to me is not someone that I think he should be a top 10 asset,

Starting point is 00:36:03 but I do think they like likely in that role. And I think that when you look at him, they're going to get some snaps from him. He just, he's not a lead anymore. I don't think the 25 target shares there to be there anymore. I think Bateman coming on is something as well. I think Rashad coming in there, Zay, you know, when you're looking at what that offensive likes to do, they love scheme touches for Zay, the eight dots like negative one, but they love getting them the football. And so I think that hurts Andrews. And I just don't know what you can give for Andrews in leagues, because I think people thinking just like us, the bottom is like falling out completely. But if I can get any type of draft capital, I'm going to

Starting point is 00:36:36 do it because I just don't see him being anything like he used to be. Yeah, again, I maybe we try to see if we can turn Andrews in a 2026 second into a 27 first and just be really, really thankful for that. Let's take our second break. We'll get back to a few more guys. You guys say I hate. Get to Toronto's main venues like Budweiser Stage and the new Rogers Stadium with Go Transit. Thanks to Go Transit's special online e-ticket fairres, a $10 one-day weekend pass offers unlimited

Starting point is 00:37:06 travel on any weekend day or holiday, anywhere along the Go network. And the weekday group passes offer the same weekday travel flexibility across the network, starting at $30 for two people and up to $60 for a group of five. Buy your online Go pass ahead of the show at go transit.com slash tickets. No frills delivers, get groceries delivered to your door from no frills with PC express shop online and get $15 in PC optimum points on your first five orders shop now at no frills.ca. We are back. I've got four more guys here.

Starting point is 00:37:43 Number one, Justin Herbert, currently QB seven in the consensus rankings. He's my QB 12. And this is one where it really has nothing to do with the talent of the player. I think Justin Herbert is a very, very skilled passer. I wish the chargers would surround him with maybe one more really skilled pass catcher and maybe give him the opportunity to throw the ball a little bit more. But considering the history of Harbaugh and Roman and considering the fact that they just invested a decent amount in both Najee Harris and of Arian Hampton, I'm not expecting this offense to turn into a pass heavy offense. I also think these

Starting point is 00:38:22 coaches are probably going to win. So we're probably going to see Justin Herbert remain in a system that has him throwing the ball way too close to 500 times per season for the foreseeable future. And it's just, it's hard to be anything more than a low end borderline QB one with 500 to 520 pass attempts borderline QB one with 500 to 520 pass attempts and maybe 300 yards rushing. The idea of Justin Herbert is much better than the player of Justin Herbert from fantasy. Like, because, um, like you said, I think he falls in the Stroud category, right? When you say that tier of like good quarterback, bad fantasy output. So like, that's the thing when I was going through Herbert's numbers, you know,

Starting point is 00:39:02 he hasn't finished as a top 10 fantasy QB in the last three years. So he just has it. Like he just has not done it. Last year was QB 15. So when you're looking at that, like imagine what the value would have got, not drafted Justin Herbert, but Baker Mayfield, right? Like if you think about how good he did compared to Justin Herbert and how big the value discrepancy was, I mean, it's crazy because it's the Roman offense and what they're trying to do there. And then when you're looking at this last year, the Chargers ranked 30th and expected fantasy points per game.

Starting point is 00:39:27 That's not good from a fantasy aspect. Like, and that's just when you go through what they're trying to build there, it's just running the football efficiency is there. Sure. And you just see some rushing upside with Herbert there, but I just don't think the fantasy output equals what his rank should be. And I think it's just, that's where you tear down. I don't see Herbert being that asset where he's a QB seven like that's way too high for me

Starting point is 00:39:48 In terms of this and this is one of those things it's hard to do though Separate the player and how great he is and what he can do on the football field at times and what he output is And I think that's the hard part from a dynasty manager perspective in his brain like oh, no, he's amazing player Yes, but he doesn't put up fantasy points He doesn't help you win. And I am like, I talk people probably more than some dynasty managers would like just about like what the actual current reality is

Starting point is 00:40:12 and what the player has been. And a lot of dynasty managers want to think about, man, look I know this guy's really good. I just want the really good players on my team. And we'll figure the rest out. I'm much more okay with that in scenarios where I can see a big change in the near term future. I'm much less okay with that for a guy that's 27 years old, locked into a long term deal with the coaching staff that I don't think

Starting point is 00:40:39 is going anywhere or a game plan that's changing. So yeah, if you told me that Justin Herbert was going to be a free agent or that Justin Herbert was going to be a free agent or that Justin Herbert was going to have a new coaching staff and a new number one wide receiver or number two, even, then I'd probably feel different about it. But I think he's just kind of locked into this spot. This next one was interesting because it's probably the next tier of quarterbacks. And I'm, I'm interested. We don't talk about them on this show hardly at all.

Starting point is 00:41:01 It's Baker Mayfield who's currently QB 15 in dynasty rankings. I've seen him as high as QB 6 ahead of Holmes in redraft quarterback rankings. He's my QB 21 and I think it's interesting if you just think about the guys that are in that group kind of between 15 and 21. You're looking at Dak Prescott, Trevor Lawrence, Jared Goff, JJ McCarthy, Justin Fields, Cam Ward, a real mix of floor and upside and youth and age. Where do you have Mayfield amongst that group? See, we're gonna disagree on Mayfield because I do think that he should be a little higher.

Starting point is 00:41:37 I think that Dak might be the only one, but I'm a Cowboy fan, so I have to tell you guys, that's a problem for me. But I think Dak's the closer one because I do think from just what they're going to do schematically, Dak can finish higher than Baker this year, but I think Dak could be a borderline QB1, QB12-ish. But Baker, to me, last year, I know the 41 touchdowns there, he never eclipsed 30, so you're going to probably see a little bit of regression there. But I love the fact that what he has around him, right? Godwin Evans, I know Godwin's coming off that.

Starting point is 00:42:07 Irving is another one. They got Iqbuqa now. I think that McMillan's underrated. And I just think from that offense perspective, he's gonna throw a lot. I mean, when you're looking at the touchdown rate and back to back seasons, maybe can get up to 7% or 6% in that range there.

Starting point is 00:42:21 Tampa did shift more to a run rate last year. So you did see kind of inside the five, they did go more with Bucky range there. Tampa did shift more to a run rate last year. So you did see kind of inside the five, they did go more with Bucky being there. But even then, I think this defense has holes. And so you're gonna see probably positive game script from Baker from that side of the football. I don't know what that offensive coordinator situation is gonna look like that scheme wise.

Starting point is 00:42:39 I think they're gonna kind of try to keep it the same there. So that would be a concern to me, but I still think from just a volume play and perspective, I think Baker can finish in the QB one again. And I'll take that for another year, as you're probably QB two and Super Flex league. So if he's your QB two, that's a pretty high floor to have from your two QB spots.

Starting point is 00:42:57 No, I think the floor is probably good. And the thing that we don't know yet is how you referenced, there's going to be at least a little bit of regression. I think I'm a little more concerned that there's a lot of regression. He threw 28 touchdowns the year before in Tampa on four fewer pass attempts. So it was a 4.9% touchdown rate. His career rate of 5% is very good.

Starting point is 00:43:23 He's got a 7.2% rates last year. And so like the difference between what he did two years ago and what he did last year's 78 fantasy points. So you're looking at basically four and a half fantasy points per game off what he produced last year. Now that would still be in a CBS league, a standard CBS league. You're still looking at probably 22 fantasy points per game or 19 or 19 or 18 or four points. So that's still really, really good. The other

Starting point is 00:43:50 thing is I, I don't, I seem to be a little more concerned about coaching changes on offenses that were really good last year, like the lions and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with these offensive coordinators, the Tampa Bay coaches coaches at least from the same system though. I think you're definitely closer to consensus on Mayfield and I may just be still holding a little bit of disdain for him for what he did to my DJ Morcoll a couple of years ago. Let's get to the next guy on the list.

Starting point is 00:44:18 It's Isaiah Pacheco. He's RB 28 in the consensus rankings. My RB 41, everybody calls me a chiefs Homer. See, I've got a guy I hate that's on the chiefs. I don't, I feel 0% confidence that Isaiah Pacheco is ever going to be a feature back like he was for half of the season a couple of years ago for the chiefs. Yeah. I mean, I don't know why he's so high. Like, I don't know. I, I, I like when I was going through it, I was like, yeah, he is really that.

Starting point is 00:44:43 I was going through some of the rankings. He's not for me. He's in the 40s for me, too So you and me on the right page there I mean when you look at his last six games or you watched it under three point six yards per carry He did not look good Like anytime he touched the football and really what the Chiefs did last year as you probably know more than anybody They just did their short passing game was their run game Like that's all they did that was what they looked at because they really looked at like hey hey, Pacheco's just not doing this for us right now. Elijah Mitchell is going to be a thing. I think people forget that. I think they're going to use him there. I love Rashard Smith. I hate

Starting point is 00:45:12 that he went in the seventh round because I hate that draft capital. And I wish from a receiving standpoint, he was fantastic when he played receiving at Miami. Like he has that from a rushing standpoint at SMU. He's just small, he does have the ability and I think the Chiefs love Kids like that. You're gonna see that. I think he can maximize space I think he can do a lot of things that Pacheco can't so I I don't know why he's so high I to me Pacheco if he is really truly being valued at that running back three You should move him because I just don't see having him him being Even a good asset after next year. Like he's just a dead asset to me all around.

Starting point is 00:45:48 I don't think he's going to do enough this year to really be worth anything. Um, maybe try to find a chief's fan and have him trade, trade him for me to league. Like if they, if they believe in him. Um, but I'm out on, on Isaiah Pacheco. And we did have a couple of questions in the chat about the guys behind him. I think it's like you mentioned the draft capital for Breschard Smith. I love the potential upside for him. I also agree, like you're a seventh round pick, you might get cut. You might be on the practice squad. There's no

Starting point is 00:46:14 telling. Elijah Mitchell, I love the upside of what he did in San Francisco, but I also recognize the contract so small he could get cut. He could end up on IR again like he has several times in his career. Kareem Hunt was unfortunately the Chief's best running back in the second half of last year. Could still get cut, but also might be the goal line back. There's just, I think there's too many little risks and with all those weapons that Mahomes has this year, I think we do see more passing as well from them. The fourth guy and it's a guy I think I have, I put RB 41 for him as well. I think I have him maybe tied with Isaiah Pacheco

Starting point is 00:46:48 or one spot behind him, but Tyrone Tracy is RB 29 in the consensus rankings. It seems like people are not that scared of Kam Skatobu. I didn't like the fumbles obviously last year. Coaches hate those more than fantasy analysts do, and certainly more than fantasy managers. We just try to ignore them and wish we didn't get negative two points for them. But he wasn't an experienced running back coming into the year. I think he's got a dog fight on his hands for touches. He might win that dog fight

Starting point is 00:47:16 this year, but he's a day three back who likely has a new coach coming in next year and has significant competition for touches this year. Again, another guy, I just don't know why he's ranked that high. Yeah, you know, it was a weird number for Tracy, which I couldn't believe because you think of Tracy's being a third down guy, like, okay, he can at least do that role. When I was going through some of the numbers, it was weird. So he was only, he was only on the field. He played less than 50% of snaps on third down last year. So he actually historically was not on the field during third down, so why was that? I think that's the question for me is like,

Starting point is 00:47:46 okay, if he's not out there, if he was getting first and second down work, well, that's going to Cam probably. Cam Scadabow's probably gonna be their early down guy. So then why the heck wasn't he getting the third down work? Now, maybe he will now, maybe they look at him as being that, but that always makes me concerned with a day three kid

Starting point is 00:48:01 getting third down work possibly being a flex option on your dynasty team. Like there's a lot of red flags there for me in terms of that. Um, and he's not like, I I'm old. So I remember James White for the Patriots. You always could plug him in, you know, flex guy getting those PPR catches. I don't see that. I know Russell does historically check down to running backs and he does do that, but they might also be more of a throwing team this year. I mean, the ball, he wants to throw like he Brian Deball loves to throw the football when you're looking at just, you know, expectations for that.

Starting point is 00:48:29 And so if he does open it up more this year, especially with the new weapons and what they have on that roster, especially with Malik neighbors, maybe that breakout this year, I'm kind of out on Tracy just because I don't, I don't really buy day three dynasty backs anyway. And even then I think his role is just confused. I don't, I don't know if he has a projected role yet, and that's just going to be hard to plug into your roster every week. 100% correct.

Starting point is 00:48:53 You, you said it all for me. We had one more question I wanted to get to from earlier in the chat. Jamie says other guys, he'd say, does Adam fall into this category? I love Adam Azer. He's the best male podcast host in the industry, or at least he was once. And we are, we are good friends. We just like to have a lot of fun on the show. We've had a lot of fun today. Kevin, thank you so much for being here. Before we go, tell everybody one more time about the DeVille Royale and how they can get involved. Yeah. So we started

Starting point is 00:49:21 this company about a year ago. It's on Substack. We do weekly or daily articles about Devey Dynasty, if you like any of those formats. Also, Redraft, we'll be doing that during the season. We're going to be doing that. You can find us a YouTube channel at thedeveryow.com or YouTube. But you can go check us out. You can be a free sub too.

Starting point is 00:49:39 Just dive in and see if you like it. If you have any questions or you want a comp sub, if you watch this and you're like, hey, I like a week free, just DM me on X if you're still on there at the boys underscore 22 and I give you a comp week. Thank you, Kevin. Awesome, awesome stuff. Thank you, Harry, for making everything work

Starting point is 00:49:55 and the fantastic thumbnail. Thank you to everybody who was active in the chat. We will talk to you next Tuesday. The Paramount Podcasts.

Fantasy Football Today - Guys Heath HATES! Players To Avoid When Drafting Dynasty (Fantasy Football Dynasty Podcast)

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