Fantasy Football Today - Hard Dynasty Reset | Resetting the top tiers at each position with Justin Boone and Adam Aizer (07/16 Dynasty Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 17, 2024

Heath Cummings is joined by Adam Aizer and The Score's Justin Boone to completely reset their dynasty tiers at each position. Intro (0:00) Non-Negotiable Dynasty league, rule or setting (2:45) Building a trade chart (6:30) Biggest trading mistake (11:29) QB tiers (13:42) RB tiers (19:32) WR tiers (23:22) TE tiers (30:13) Listener questions (35:55) To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Goaltenders, no. But chicken tenders, yes. Because am your host,ete cummings here with my good friend adam hazer and a very special guest we've got justin boone from the score here justin thank you so much for being here tell everybody where they can find your work and what you've been working i mean i've been at the score now for, I think we're almost at 11 years, which is crazy. So all my content's available for free over there. Rankings, Dynasty Trade Value Charts, which I'm sure we're going to talk about today. You know, all the podcasts and all the content we got that's going to be going in the Score Fantasy Football Draft Kit, which launches tomorrow.

So that's very, very exciting this week. We got the rookies getting back on the field, and now we got all our content to get everybody ready for draft season. So it's an exciting time. And then I'm on Twitter at Justin Boone. You can find me there. I tweet out most of the links to my stuff, including the podcast, which I should say the name, the score fantasy football podcast, which Heath, you have been on before. And I appreciate that. Yeah. Yeah. We'll do that again for sure. I appreciate you being here. I want a little bit early because he suffered a catastrophic injury to his lower body. He doesn't want to talk about it,

but he might have had something to do with sliding into first base. First, after a ground ball to second. Accurate or inaccurate? Completely inaccurate. I flew out twice. Wait. Did it get to the grass? Actually, I think I flew out and why wait did did it get to the grass actually i think i flew out and popped out okay i was gonna say because it's not a fly out if the second baseman catches it

uh no the first one got to the grass and after the second one i i was so mad at myself i threw my hat across this and that's how you hurt your knee throwing your hat that makes perfect sense so on today's show justin mentioned it like he does do a dynasty trade chart that's obviously one of my labors of love and so we're going to talk a little bit in the beginning just kind of about the philosophy of a dynasty trade chart we're also going to reset the top tiers at each position i think it's a helpful thing both for contenders like to know how serious of a contender you are, how many of the elite players at each position do you have, and also we'll talk a little bit about who do we think might move into those top dynasty tiers during the season.

And at the end of the show, we will answer some of your dynasty questions. But as always, we start with three questions for our guest. you're starting a new dynasty league what is your one non-negotiable rule or setting and you can't say super flex because everybody says super i mean yeah you got super flex just has to be in there um for me i i want it to be as deep as possible i want it to be uh like 30 man rosters at least at minimum. If you want to go 40, 50 or more, I'm in, you got me. And then starting lineups, maybe that's the more unique one. And I think he, I think we've played in leagues together like this before. You know, it's going to be super flex, of course, or two QB, but let's start three running backs. Let's start five receivers. Let's start one or two tight ends.

And then let's throw some flex positions in there too, because I want to make it as challenging as possible. I want to really put these managers to the test and make it tough to really build that juggernaut, which is what everybody wants to do in a dynasty league. Right? So for me, I would say that's probably it.

If you come to me with just a basic dynasty league and it's, you know, just 12 teams and it's, you know, 20, 24 man rosters i'm not that interested at this point everybody's going to have pretty good teams i want it to be extremely deep both the roster size and the starting lineups and that's where i think it gets really fun and you see a lot of variation is this are they starting lineups

sounding like too much to you i'm like the thing i love about it is he mentioned the juggernaut and that's the main difference i think that people forget about in dynasty leagues, is it's possible by the time you get to year five, year six, year seven of a dynasty league, you could have five of the top 12 redraft running backs that season. You could have seven of the top 18 redraft wide receivers that season. I might be exaggerating just a little bit, but the process when you have to only start two or three of those guys, it almost feels like you are putting the teams that have accumulated all these great players at a disadvantage. Yeah, no, I look, I like the idea of starting a lot of players. Also, I just, that felt like a

little bit too much. You said three running backs, five wide receivers, and then some flex, but to each his own. You said, I mean, we have in our Big Burger Dynasty League, we start two running backs, two receivers, one tight end, one super flex, and three flex options. I could see maybe throwing another one in there. But the other thing I would say is you don't want to make it. Like, I know that you like it to challenge people, but maybe not everyone in your league wants to be challenged.

There might be some casual players. yeah and and this did come up i will give a shout out to our late friend mike taglier he was the one that commissioned the first league that i was in that was like this um and really got me hooked on the the deep starting lineup so i'll give him some props for that you're right it is a thing that you know a lot of dynasty leagues that i'm in are analyst leagues now um and so that's probably where it becomes a little more fun when you have people i every time i have a danny kelly on my show scott connor we always joke about the fact that we're in some leagues where we are just fighting for scraps we're picking up ufl running backs in those leagues right like you're just trying to find any

little sliver of hope you can on the waiver wire and i really love that but i agree casual fantasy players maybe that's not as much for them but still that's my answer i'm probably not joining one of those uh shorter shallower leagues you gotta know your league like the most difficult league for me every year is my home league that I've been in for 20 years now with entirely guys that I went to high school with. So like kept the group together. And it's one of my favorite things about fantasy football, but it's also like I work in the industry, about four of them really pay attention more than four months out of the year. And at least two or three of them were having to ask them every year to set their lineups. So you got to know what kind of league you're in.

And if it's that type of variation, you probably go a little bit thinner. Let's talk about dynasty trade charts. And I think there's a lot of different philosophies around building a trade chart. So I just like to kind of hear what yours is. Specifically, like your opinion on, is this your opinion on the value of a player or what you think the general overall consensus opinion is, and then how you balance on your trade chart, the difference between contenders and rebuilders.

Like I like Derek Henry obviously has a very different value to someone who's competing this year and someone who is. Yeah. I'm, I'm taking everything into account. I don't just want it to be my belief. I want to factor in, you know, what's the latest news. What's kind of the public perception of that player. And I will bump a guy down. Like, you know, for years I was a little higher than most on guys like Josh Jacobs and David Montgomery that I thought had decent value, but that a lot of people out there just didn't like. And yet those guys produced and were okay fans, but they might not win you your league, but they were pretty good RB twos in your

roster. And eventually of course, you know, they did have some RB1 performances. So I'm going to factor all that stuff in. It is really something that I struggled with though. I'll be honest with you. I was doing it for years, not publishing it, having it myself. And that's how I started everything in the fantasy industry. Like I was doing my own rankings for years before I became an analyst and got to publish it on sites. And for the dynasty trade value charts, I just never felt confident in it. I never felt like it was like precise enough, or it was going to provide people with enough value.

So I went over it and, you know, refined it for years. And the thing that really the conclusion I came to that kind of changed everything for me was that it should be a little closer to my redraft rankings than anything. Like, I think at first I was looking at dynasty and this might be a mistake that a lot of people make looking at dynasty is like this completely different format. Like it's so different and you're trying to get all these young stars and you're trying to build that juggernaut. Like we were saying earlier, when in reality, you're just trying to win a league here. And so you want to look at it,

you know, one, two, three years out, you don't really want to look at it that much further because there's not that many players that are going to maintain their value for, you know, 10 plus years, some of the top quarterbacks, maybe the top receivers, but most of these guys, it's going to change quite a bit over time. And when I started kind of leaning a little bit more towards my redraft rankings and factoring that in and thinking more about setting yourself up to win right away, or if you are doing a rebuild, not looking at it, like, you know, you're the 76ers and you're trying to trust the process, looking at it like, Hey, I'm going to win next year. Maybe I'm going to rebuild, but I'm

going to do it one or two years and I'm going to be right back in playoff contention or potentially title contention. So when I started doing that, that was big. And then the other thing that I think really changed the game for me was testing it. And for me testing it as once I spent all the time doing it and I have those values where I kind of liked them, then I start to make fake trades. Then I start to look at it and go, okay, what I actually trade this player for that player. And the best way for me to do that is to use the values that I have for the rookie picks. So I just start looking at that. What I get this guy for a first round pick a second round pick two second round picks and testing it that way. And a lot of the times like, well, no, I wouldn't make that trade.

That's crazy. I got to go back and work on it again. And that's really when I got to a point where now in the last couple of years, I feel really, really confident about them. I really love doing it. And I think it provides a lot of value for people. And then the other thing I will say is I just tell people it's a guide and I don't know about you, but like for me, I don't want people looking at it like it is a calculator and going, it has to be exactly even if it's one point of value that I'm losing, then I'm not going to make that trade.

Because obviously there's instances where you are going to make that deal. You know, you're a contender. You might have to overpay a little bit to get that player you need. That's going to put you over the top. There is going to be circumstances where it's going to change. But the trade value charts, I just want to put you in the ballpark. So you know that it is a fair trade. And then you can work on sort of a few pieces to try to get some value or to try to get

the deal done. But that's kind of the process I've taken over the years to get where I am now with it. That's good stuff. Adam, Joe had a question in the chat. If you're a contender, wouldn't you just use redraft rankings to try to assist in evaluating a trade? I think he brings up a point.

If a trade chart is built for both contenders and rebuilders, then I do think you should be willing to lose a dynasty trade on the trade chart if you're getting better players from right now or vice versa. If you're rebuilding and you're trying to sell Derrick Henry and Devante Adams and those guys, you can't worry about getting full value for them. You've got to get something for the future. People are often too hesitant to, like Justin said, try to win the trade, right? Yeah, I would think so. The trade chart, it can't possibly take into the context of what you have on your team. It's the limitation, whether it's a redraft or a dynasty trade chart, it's not going to know, oh, actually,

you're really deep at quarterback, so you can afford to do this. So yeah, don't be afraid to overpay on paper if you have to do it, if it makes sense for your team. I agree. Okay. Justin, final question. What's the biggest mistake you see people make when it comes to trading in dynasty? I mean, I think maybe we just covered it there, right? Like looking too far into the future. I think that's definitely something. And so you could look at that as, you know, overvaluing the young players, which I think that's definitely something. And so you could look at that as, you know, overvaluing the young players, which I think people do and getting too excited about a young player that has a lot of hype and over, you know, paying for them. And that guy hasn't even become the player they think he's going to be. And maybe the guy never does. Right. And that

often is a problem. And then the flip side of that is undervaluing veteran players. And the guy that always comes to mind is it's like the veteran receivers, right? Like the, the Mike Evans of the world, you could get them for cheap. You could trade sometimes one of those young unproven receivers and get a veteran guy and something you could get a veteran guy and a second round pick or something like that. And that's just a really smart way to build up your team. So I think, you know, that's probably a big one. You could also talk about like the time of year that you make trades, like right at the rookie draft, those picks are the most valuable that they're going to be. Right. So I think that's the time if you are going to, you know, try to maximize value, you hold those picks and then you trade them during the draft when there's a player on the board that everybody's excited about

and you can kind of, you know, pit people against each other and drive that value up um you know versus other times a year when you know in season people aren't as excited about the rookie picks maybe because they're trying to win and you know contend and that sort of stuff so just being mindful of the time of year we're really getting into like the the nuance of it here but i'm you know i try to be mindful of the time of year to make sure that I'm not just kind of throwing things away. Um, and you can be smart on the other side of it and try to get some of those veteran guys, you know, before the season. Um, and I think that could be a smart move too. That's great stuff. We will, uh, we'll jump

right into dynasty tears right after this break. It's hockey season, and you can get anything you need delivered with Uber Eats. Well, almost, almost anything. So no, you can't get an ice rink on Uber Eats. But iced tea, ice cream, or just plain old ice? Yes, we deliver those. Gold tenders, no. But chicken tenders, yes. Because those are groceries, and we deliver those too.

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the most elite players slash assets, if you want to call it that, in Dynasty right now. And I think, you know, we've had guests on this show before talking about how do you know if you're a true contender? And I would say one of the things is you better have some of these guys and if you don't you better figure out how you think you're contending if you don't so justin we'll start i'll start with you and i'll just ask you like at quarterback where is that tier cut off amongst the the truly elite dynasty quarterbacks for me it's and i mean i know i'm wearing the bills hat right now but I think we'll probably, hopefully I'll agree on this.

Josh Allen's there and Patrick Mahomes is there and they've just, you know, they've proven themselves. People might look at my redraft rankings and go, well, you don't have Mahomes top two or top three. Like, why would he be this high? It's just that level of consistency. It's the type of quarterback that he is. We know he is going to be one of the best in the league for a long time that these guys have proven themselves. So for me, it's pretty clear that it's those two at the top. Allen and Mahomes. So it's a big drop-off for you to get to Jalen Hurts, or at least a drop-off to get to Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, CJ Stroud, Joe

Burrow. Those are some of the guys that are next. Adam, I know that you were talking yesterday on our show, and you said for redraft, you think that there's a pretty good case for Jalen Hurts as QB1. At the start of this season, Hurts is going to be 26. Allen's going to be 28. Would you put Jalen Hurts in that elite tier as well? You know, I think I'm going to agree. No, I would not.

I think that Allen and Mahomes belong in that tier by themselves because Jalen Hurts for this year, yeah, I think he's number one in four-point leagues, and for me, he's number two in six-point behind Patrick Mahomes. I guess I have some questions about his future. You know, is he going to have a new coaching staff? How good is he? I think he's really good, but I've seen enough analysts be like,

well, he's not really that good from the pocket. So I guess I could see, it'd be a little surprising to me, I could see his career taking a surprising downward turn. I guess the only thing I would disagree with is, if you're just going on, how do you know if you're a contender? Well, you should have these guys on your roster roster then it would be a bigger tier for me and well yeah i want to i'm just going to cut you off because i think i want to make a point you don't need to have an elite player from the elite tier in every position but if we go through quarterback and running back

and wide receiver and tied in and you found that you don't have any elite players from the elite tier at any position, then we might need to have a little deeper conversation. I think the other thing is people can disagree on this tier because my concern, I think everybody's concerned with Hurts, what you just said, Adam, and Jackson, Lamar Jackson, is yes, they are currently in the elite tier because of what they can do as rushers,

but we've not seen quarterbacks do that as rushers in their thirties. What happens to Lamar and Hertz if they are not as successful as a rusher by three years from now? There's no concern for most people of that with Josh Allen. It seems Justin like that. The expectation is that if he can drop to 400 yards rushing and five or six rushing touchdowns, he's going to throw well enough that it's not going to matter.

I think they might have to get him some receivers for that math equation to work out. But I want to jump to the next question because we're going to go through all four positions. You said Allen. You said Mahomes. Six months from now, I gonna i'm telling you one guy is is in that tier now we all agree on it who's the guy who's made the jump into that tier

oh i i want to say cj stroud because what we've seen from him so far has that kind of like patrick mahomes quality but if you really ask me in my heart, I really want to say Anthony Richardson. I'm so excited about Anthony Richardson. And I think he could kind of have that Josh Allen trajectory where we saw Allen do some really good things in his first year, but he wasn't out there the whole time. But at the end of his rookie season, there was a stretch where he was the number one fantasy quarterback. He got a glimpse of what he could become. And I think we might've gotten that last year. It was very small, but we might've gotten that last year with Anthony Richardson,

but it's not just his talent. I mean, we can go over, but there's so many things, right? Shane Steichen and the way he runs that offense, the speed of the offense, the weapons they've gotten him. And then you look at the rushing ability and his talent. So yeah, I want to say Anthony Richardson, the safer answer is probably CJ Stroud. Adam, is it as simple as it's Stroud and a six-point progressing touchdown like you can Richardson in a four? No, I don't. I think Burrow really needs to be in this conversation.

You got to get the T. Higgins contract situation. I think that's what favors C.J. Stroud because you've got Nico Collins locked up and you've got Tank Dell on his rookie contract. But I think Burrow is a little bit more likely than cj stroud to be in this discussion um i'm a huge burrow believer but in a four point per pass and touchdown like i actually think jalen hurts has a better chance of being in that tier than and then anthony richardson because if he does it again i don't really know how you don't

put him he's still like pretty young i don't know how you don't put him in that tier i don't really know how you don't put him. He's still like pretty young. I don't know how you don't put him in that tier. I don't think it's just, I was going to say it's Hurts in both because the thing that we haven't seen yet is what this offense is going to look like with Kellen Moore. And with A.J. Brown and Devontae Smith getting open the way they get open, if they come out and all of a sudden

it's like three more pass attempts for Jalen Hurts and his most efficient season as a passer, then Jalen Hurts is 100% in this conversation and nobody else really has a chance to be better than him. Let's jump over to running back. I think most people probably have Bijan and Breesall at the top or at least one or in the top three. Are those the only two in your elite tier, Justin, or are we going a little bit deeper than that there would be a tear break there for me sure yeah it's those guys it's the age it's you know the talent we've seen from them and just the expectation and let's hope that aaron rogers can

stay healthy and that bruce hall can stay healthy because he sat out otas right they're kind of babying him a little bit to make sure that he's good to go for the season um let's hope that those guys are healthy and that, you know, with the upgrades at quarterback, we see those offenses firing on all cylinders and we really see what they can do and hopefully they can keep it up for a while. Adam, I, when I look at like, you know, I, I am a numbers guy. I assign a kind of a number value to each player outside of the trade short.

And it's definitely Bijan and Brees in a tier of their own. But the difference between them and number three, Jameer Gibbs, is about the same or a little smaller between Gibbs and everyone else. Like I would almost have a tier one with Bijan and Brees and a tier two with Gibbs. Is Gibbs the easy answer of the guy that if what Detroit's saying, we're going to give him more work this year. If that comes to a fruition, if all of a sudden it's a 60,

40 split in favor of Jameer Gibbs and Montgomery doesn't matter quite as much as Jameer Gibbs, just like run away from everybody else and into this top tier. Yes, I think so because there are some running backs that could be as good as him, but they're not going to be going into their third year next year, into their second year this year, like a Jonathan Taylor or Saquon Barkley.

So he's got age on his side. He's a first-round pick. I think he's probably pretty close right now to Bijan and Brees Hall. He's a tremendously talented player on a really good offense. And how much longer is David Montgomery going to going to be like is david montgomery going to be the same factor next year so i think he's i think there's less separation between gibbs and tier one than there is between gibbs and and everyone else behind him so yeah i i think probably a little higher on gibbs than you are is there a dark horse just enough who could jump into the

like it seems more likely to me that brrees or Bijon fall out of this tier, and the tier just changes, because that's what we saw, what was it, a year and a half ago? We had three guys ranked as top five dynasty running backs consensus-wise that are all probably outside of the top 20 now. That's what running backs do. But is there a dark horse that's maybe in your top 10 that you could see just having a monster season this year?

Could Jonathan Taylor reinsert himself in this tier? Yeah, I think he's probably that one. And it seems kind of strange to me that people are just kind of like forgetting that or discounting him a bit. But it goes back to what I just said about Anthony Richardson, right? Like the excitement about that offense, about Shane Steichen and what that could become. It still has to happen. But if that offense really gets going,

we've seen Taylor do it before. So he would be the answer for me, the guy that could get back up there, but it would be tough for him to get up into that range with those two. He'd have to do a lot just based on age and everything. Yeah. And I think like looking at some other names that could HN obviously if Devon HN just gets 15 touches a game and stays healthy he's probably going to jump into that tier with the efficiency and Mike McDaniel's offensive system if Jonathan Brooks is healthy to start the year and looks like what we think Jonathan Brooks could be. I think he was by far the best running back in this class. Going into year two as a 21-year-old, he could probably

jump into that group at all. I do think that the wide receiver conversation is a little bit more interesting than the first two. I am curious of how, like what the number is, because it was, it was a two-man tier a year ago. Is it three? Is it four? Is it five? Who's your elite tier at wide receiver, Justin? I think it's three. I think it's Jefferson, it's Chase, and it's CeeDee Lamb for me.

But unlike the other ones, that next crew at this position is quite close. I would make the tier there. But Amunra St. Brown, Garrett Wilson, Puka Nakua, those guys are all right in there. And it wouldn't shock me at all if those three, all three of them, jump up into that elite tier during this season. So, Adam, you were adamantly sticking your hand out in front of the camera. I put five up.

It should be four. I would just add Amonra St. Brown to that. But I agree with you. It should be bigger, yeah, but it should be four. I would just add Amon Ross St. Brown to that. But I agree with you. It should be bigger, yeah, very soon. Go ahead. Yeah, I think this is the one where it's more interesting of who's going to jump into the tier. Because if we agree it's all three, Adam says it's four,

Amon Ross St. Brown. I think it's hard to argue against him. He's younger than Lamb. He's got probably a little bit more secure quarterback future than everybody but Chase for the next couple of years. We may be discounting just how bad the quarterback play could be in Minnesota this year and what that might do to Justin Jefferson, although he's never looked like someone who quarterback play really matters to.

So, Justin, if you're looking at that next tier of St. Brown of Harrison of Puka, maybe even if you're a Giants fan of Malik neighbors, who do you think is most likely to jump into a tier one this year? But like I said, I think any of them could honestly, though, I think it's Garrett Wilson. And I know his quarterback situation moving forward is a little uncertain, but I think when everyone sees him with a legit quarterback,

like the jump that is going to happen, if Aaron Rogers stays healthy, going from the Zach Wilson's and Trevor Simeon's and those guys, and still putting up like, okay, stats still putting up a thousand yards, still being a pretty good receiver. Now,

when he has a legit quarterback, I think he is going to immediately, it's going to be, you know, a couple of weeks into the season and we're going to be talking about Garrett Wilson in that group. And for me, maybe I'm being a little hopeful here that, you know, the jets will find a quarterback after Aaron Rogers or that he'll stick around for another season or two. Uh, but for me, I think talent wise, Wilson should be in that conversation. We just haven't got to see him play with a quarterback that can help him get there. Yeah, and I'm going to say it's Harrison because, again, Garrett Wilson,

I will take him over Harrison this year, but Aaron Rodgers is about to be 41, coming off the Achilles injury. He has sort of said that he wants to play more than just this next season, but who knows at this point? And I think Harrison, as you talk about Gary Wilson's talent, it's probably not as good as Marvin Harrison. So I expect big things from him as a rookie. And honestly, if somebody said who's in that elite tier and they wanted to take a leap of faith and say Marvin Harrison is the fourth or the fifth guy, I would really not even argue with that that it's hard when you've never seen it before obviously he's a rookie but i think we all have a very high

expectations for marvin harrison i think he's the logical next choice to be in that group i want to kind of talk about two positions at once here justin because we didn't mention christian mcafree in the running back to discussion. We didn't mention Tyree Kill in the wide receiver tier discussion. You could make an argument from a projection standpoint. You should project those guys to be two or three fantasy points better per game this year than anybody else at their position. How do you treat those players when you're talking about a trade chart, like for a contender, they might want those guys more than anybody we've talked about so far. Yeah. I mean, I have Tyreek down at 10 wide receiver 10.

I have McCaffrey at, at running back for still incredibly valuable guys. But you have to make that calculation. Cause I think almost guaranteed by the end of this season or after this season, we're talking about this next year, their values are going to be lower. Like they're going to drop whether it's because, you know, injury because of the age, whether it's because they're just not, you know, producing the way that they did and their primes, they are declining assets, I think from this point on. So you have to factor that in. But

if that's the piece that gets you over the top and for me, McCaffrey is still the one-on-one in redraft. In my opinion, you just, you can't discount the fact that he was a two and a half fantasy points per game, better than everyone in half PPR. I think it was three, something better than everybody in full PPR. You can't discount that when you're contending. So yeah, they are guys that I would be happy. I would overpay for them a little bit. If I think that's the piece that gets me over the top, you just have to know that if you want to get any value for them, you're going to have to trade them very quickly after the season to try to get something because their value is going to start dropping pretty quickly, I think. cost of acquiring a christian mcafree or a tyree kill before they've hit that drop off is still so high that you can do the exact opposite like you can sentence your team to a rebuild with that one

trade because you have to give up so many assets to get a mcafree or a tyree kill so who's higher on your chart mcafree or tyree kill uh they're almost the same i have mcafree one one point ahead of tyree kill i have mcafree two points ahead of tyree kill but yeah they are it's basically it's it's mcafree taylor aj brown neighbors than tyreek so they are they are right in the same ballpark love the neighbors love their heath love it well i was thinking adam like if you had tyree kill on a team that was was getting close to the end would you would you feel okay trading tyree kill away from like neighbors straight up yeah yeah i think so i again another dealer could just go disastrously wrong but that's the fun part yeah i could it's is, what, 30 this year? This is age 30 season?

And suddenly seems a lot more motivated to play more years than he did a couple of years ago. He went from, I'm going to finish this contract to, I want that new contract. Yeah, well, I think all the new contracts made him more motivated, right? He's $30 million a year. See if he gets that. But in history, the best wide receivers, it's not surprising to see them have good seasons at age 32, 33.

It's not surprising to see them completely fall off like Julio Jones and A.J. Green did right around 30 or 31 or so. But I think like Marvin Harrison, Randy Moss, Hines Ward had a great year when he was 32 or 33. It does happen. So it wouldn't be a shock if Tyreek Hill had two or three more terrific seasons. Justin, I don't think there's been any position with more turnover,

in my rankings at least, over the last calendar year than the tight end position. You've got elite options like Mark Andrews, Travis Kelsey, George Kittle, who are all 28 or older, Kelsey and Kittle, both on the wrong side of 30. You've got Laporta with what he did last year, McBride with what he did. Everybody's excited about Dalton Kincaid and Brock Bowers, and we're not giving up on Kyle Pitts quite yet. This may be the most interesting position in Dynasty right now. Where is the tier cutoff amongst the elite? I think you could really argue

that it's like a top six here. I have Laporta a little bit higher because we've seen him do it because the Lions really didn't bring in anybody else that's going to compete. It's going to be him and Amonra St. Brown. Those guys are just going to be dominating in that passing game. But if you ask me, i'm going to say that it's the top six i'd

be willing to even include bowers in that range i know people aren't excited about the landing spot but i think things are going to change a lot for the raiders over the next few seasons uh davante adams maybe won't be there for very long um so yeah i would be willing to take any one of those guys and it's kind of the almost the same approach as I haven't redraft right now. Like I want one of the top seven tight ends this year. And if I don't get one of them, I'm normally pretty disappointed. Um, and we've done a couple of mock drafts lately at the score that I've posted. And each time I have failed to get one of them that I've talked about it in the mock drafts about my disappointment there and how I need to start to correct my strategy maybe in redraft leagues to spend up a little more to get one of those guys.

Cause there's just such an advantage to that top group. But for me, it is just so deep with Laporta, Kincaid, McBride, Andrews, Pitts, and Bowers. And a couple of those are projections, but I think we could feel pretty good about Pitts's situation going into this season with the quarterback change. And for me, Bowers is just right up there. That's probably my riskiest member of this group, but an elite prospect and a guy that I think is going to be the focal point of that passing game after Devonta Adams is gone. Yeah, Heath, I'm going to hop off soon, but my final thought is, obviously, you'll talk about no Kelsey being in there, but this group of the elite six tight ends, if Kelsey's not in there,

it might be the same six next year in an entirely different order. We're going to find out a lot about these guys this year. And two of those guys, thank you, Adam, for being here today. Two of those guys were in my top six a year ago. Now, obviously, Brock Bowers wasn't around. The order you put them in, Justin, I assume you've got Bowers six. I think that was where you said him. I do, yeah. How much, if you're a team with Bowers and the team with Kelsey comes to you and you're a contender, how much do you need in addition

to Bowers to, to take on Travis Kelsey and try to go win a championship? I just don't think I would do it at this point. I just, and then maybe I'm foolish. Maybe Kelsey is going to be one of these tight ends that sticks around and keeps going. Um, but I would be so wary of Kelsey at this point versus any one of these tight ends. And I think it speaks more to how I feel about all these tight ends. And most of them are young guys other than Andrews. And he has some concerns too, in terms of, you know, not being able to stay healthy and having another tight end on his team that

could potentially threaten him a little bit here, but it's really that top group being so good that pushes Kelsey down on top of the fact, of course, the age stuff with Kelsey, but how long can he keep doing this? I don't see him having the same elite value now that the Chiefs are able to surround Patrick Mahomes with some other weapons and they've given him a legit receiving core. It's not just Kelsey and Tyreek Hill now. It's not just Kelsey and barely anyone else and Rasheed Rice coming on at the end of the season as a rookie they have some legit guys in Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy at first round pick so that factors in too to my concerns about Kelsey moving forward

and whether he's going to still hit those elite numbers or whether are the Chiefs just going to kind of do like the you know late career Shaquille O'Neal thing and go a little easier on Kelsey and try to keep him healthy for late season and playoffs? I could see that happening too, because that's when they know they're going to be around in the playoffs. That's when he's going to be most valuable. So there's a lot of reasons factoring in there, but mostly it's just there are so many young players at this position that have come in the last couple of years that I think have elite outcomes within their range of outcomes. It's just a matter of are they going to become the number one or number two target in their offense? Are they going to be able to take that next step? I tell you what, like you put a thought in my mind that's going to be there for at least the rest of the day.

And that is Travis Kelsey following the post sports career of Shaquille O'Neal. I can see him making a genie movie. I can see him coming out with a rap album. I can absolutely, I just want to see Travis Kelsey try to go do all the things Shaquille O'Neal did. Let's take one more break. Then I've got some listener emails and tweets to answer. If you're in the chat here on YouTube and you have a Dynasty question, now would be a great time to ask. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference. Securian Canada gives you that coverage. For more than 65 years, Securian Canada has been helping Canadians build secure tomorrows. Their insurance solutions are designed to help protect you and your loved ones financially, giving you the peace of mind to focus on what truly matters.

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Learn more at MillerLite.ca. Must be legal drinking age. Okay, so we got an email here, Justin, from Todd, and it's, I'm going to tell you guys the truth. Like, if you send me an email and it's got multiple paragraphs, I can't read the entire email on the show because the person I'm asking the question to forgets the question, and the people who are listening have no idea what we're talking about. So I try to condense the questions. But I think it's a good question, Todd. So he's got a 14-team Dynasty League. And basically, it boils down to he has a roster that is much better than the 101 pick that he possesses.

He has 101. He has 201. He has 202. And then he's got some other picks later. But he has a roster in a one-quarterback league, 14 teams that could be competitive pretty quick. And he asks, do I use that? These picks, do I use this one-on-one or do I try to use the picks to turn my team into a contender?

I think when you've earned the one-on-one with a bad roster, the answer is pretty easy. When you've got a team that maybe doesn't deserve that pick, but you've got it, how are you using it? In these situations? I mean, it really depends on what you think you can get with those picks. And so that's what makes it very tough, right? Like I would be out there shopping these picks regardless, just to see what you can get back. And I had a situation this year where I was at the one Oh four and same kind of thing. I was a team that, you know, I'm much better than the one Oh four.

It was someone else's pick that I was using there. And I didn't need a quarterback and Jaden Daniels was still on the board. And I was shopping them to everybody who wants this pick. And I ended up getting back a Kyron Williams and T Higgins, which is more than I expected to get back. And I know some people, you know, we're not going to debate Kyron Williams and T Higgins and what we think about them. But for me, that was a much better return than grabbing Jaden Daniels, who on that team was going to be my QB three or QB four potentially. Um, so I would go out there and try to shop this

as best you can. But when you're talking about the one-on-one, you can get a great player and a guy that could potentially make an impact right away, whether it is Marvin Harrison, junior, you know, if you want Caleb Williams, regardless, these guys at the top are going to be able to produce right away. Malik neighbors, even that you mentioned, right? Like earlier, he could get in there and have a great season. It wouldn't shock me at all. If he was a low-end wide receiver one based on volume and talent this year. So I think I would keep that pick. And then when you go a little bit deeper and you look, you know, like you said, it's a 14 team league. But at the top of the second round in that range, that 15th, 16th pick, there's a lot of guys that I like in that range still that I think are going to have really good careers.

Trey Benson, Marshawn Lloyd, some of the receivers like Ricky Pearsall. I like A.D. Mitchell probably more than most. trey benson marshall lloyd some of the receivers like ricky pierce saw i like ad mitchell probably more than most so to me depending if you can shop this and get something decent that you like i'm fine with it but i would probably stick and just make these picks because i think you're going to get players that are going to be on your team for a long time and guys that could potentially make an impact for you this year too awesome awesome rob drafted Hendon Hooker on a few dynasty teams way back when, and if Jared Goff's new contract, he's wondering what we see for Hooker's long-term prospects. I think I have to hold for now, but how long is he another Jordan love?

My answer basically is I'm probably holding Hooker for one more year in super flex. And I don't know why you would still be holding them in one quarterback league. How do you feel about Justin? Yeah, I agree. I don't see him as a Jordan love, but I'll also admit I didn't see Jordan love as a Jordan.

So, you know, maybe I'm just off on that one. I think if we're talking super flex though, this is an area that people can take advantage of. And one of the easy ones was always just stack stack as many running backs as you can get on your roster, right? Get, you know, the RB2, RB3 across every roster because you never know when injuries are going

to strike and those guys can jump in value. But I think it's super flex in two quarterback leagues. Backup quarterbacks have a similar value and you should be rostering these guys if you have the space. Going back to that first question, I'm in a lot of deep leagues, be rostering these guys. If you have the space going back to that first question, I'm in a lot of deep leagues, so I can do this. I can spend a few, you know, roster spots and hold some of these backups that if a quarterback goes down, you might have a guy in Alliance offense that we think is pretty good. You might have a guy that could step in and be

your, you know, super flex guy, or you could potentially trade him. If, you know, Jared Goff's out for the season or something, you could trade him for a second round rookie pick maybe, or potentially more. So I think it's smart in super flex leagues to hold some of these backup quarterbacks. I think there can be a lot of value. It's almost like when we see one of these backup running backs vault into the starting spot. And I think that's an area that a lot of dynasty managers don't take advantage of. So I would say in, like you said, in super

flex, definitely hold onto him. I think there could be value there. And yeah, if it's not super flex, then there's no point in this question, I think. Well, I think that's a good lead into a question I saw in the chat. How do you feel about Zemir White and George Pickens in Dynasty? I'll tell you, and everybody listening knows, I'm a pretty enormous George Pickens backer this year and think that he might make the same type of leap that people are just expecting for Garrett Wilson and Drake Lennon. I think Pickens could have a monster season. Zemir White's more interesting because I do think I'm probably higher than consensus on him. It's more begrudgingly though. And it might be because he was one of those guys last year that I was adding in week six or week seven off of the waiver wire in dynasty leagues. And then all of a sudden he turned into a guy who looks like a starting running back this year. You're right. Those,

that's a way to make a quick profit, but some people think you kind of have to sell white if you want to get that profit because he's not going to be very good this year. So how do you feel about White and Pickens and Dynasty? Yeah, I think selling White right now is probably the move. And it's that kind of situation where he hasn't totally proven it yet. He has the hype. But a lot of the things that are vaulting or pushing up his value are the things that are around him, are the way that team uses their running backs, the volume that we expect him to get.

I did like him as a prospect coming out, but not as a guy that I thought was going to be some sort of like, you know, elite fantasy back or anything. So when you have a situation like that, where there's a lot of uncertainty, you know, and I think back, it was a mistake I made last year. I kind of overvalued Alexander Madison, right? And this is kind of a similar situation where it's a guy who was a backup that showed well at times, and now he's going to get that full-time starting job. But, you know, if, if Dylan lobby gets involved as a pass catcher in that backfield, would

it surprise anybody? No. And they have Alexander Madison there now, which is kind of hilarious and would be amazing if, you know, Zamir white missed time and all of a sudden Alexander Madison gets in there and maybe he does something based on the volume. But regardless, yeah, I think he's a guy that you should be looking to trade at this point, trying to cash in before any sort of bottom falls out, because I don't think the ceiling with him is that high. I don't think he's going to catch a lot of passes. So he's just a guy that, you know, is a volume type play. George Pickens. I love hearing you say that.

That's so exciting. I've been on Pickens since he came into the league and I know he's been such a polarizing prospect, but the talent was there. He showed it the whole way. And now he's going to get an opportunity to be the guy and everybody that wants to look back and say, Arthur Smith in Atlanta, look at the problems they had and the guys who were vulturing touchdowns and the usage and all that sort of stuff. I will point you to Desmond Ritter and Marcus Mariota and the quarterback

situation. Arthur Smith is still going to be a problem. I'm sure there's going to be weeks where we get mad about it, but the quarterback situation in Pittsburgh this year is much better than what he dealt with in Atlanta. And we saw, you know, Russell Wilson last year with Cortland Sutton, having some chemistry putting up a big touchdown total together. And yeah, I'm very excited about picking. So I love hearing that you're on board too. Awesome. Awesome. Well, at least one more from the chat. I know I want to get to, I've been trying to trade Tyree kill all off season

is a future first asking too much. And like, first off, no, no, it's not asking too much, but as you know, Justin, sometimes you get in these situations where like you're trying to rebuild and you have somebody that is worth more than the league will give you. What I think maybe the first lesson is don't try to trade guys like this in the off season, wait until somebody gets super excited about how good their team is. Exactly. Handle it when the league won't give you fair value and you're trying to rebuild if you are rebuilding then you know this season doesn't matter too much to you hold him hold him until the trade deadline and then watch to see one of those contenders jump up and be willing to pay i would want more than a first round pick i

wouldn't even just take a first round pick if it's an early first. Okay. But if it's mid to late first, I would want something else to sweeten that. And I think you're going to get it at the trade deadline. You know, all kinds of crazy trades get made around that time. And I'm in some leagues where you can still trade into the playoffs, which I don't totally agree with. But when that happens, I've seen seen teams i was part of it a few years ago in one league where my opponent just started an arms race the week of the championship and started trading away future picks and i wasn't just going to sit there and wait so i did the same and some of those trades didn't work out great for me but i was overpaying and i ended up winning the title so i guess you could argue maybe it did work out but regardless you wait until that point in year, that goes back to what I was saying before about picking kind of

the time of the season when you're going to get the most value. It's not right now. It's when all the teams are looking and trying to have that arms race and get ready for the post season and a title run. That's when you're going to get the most value. And that's what I would do here with Tyreek. Absolutely. 100% agree. I have a couple of tweets I'd asked yesterday for tweets. How do you feel about the importance of stacking back fields in dynasty? We've had this debate and redraft for a long time. Do you need to have the backup running back? Is it, is it any different for you in dynasty and how do you feel about it? Not really. If I'm a contender, I guess I'm more willing to like try to insulate from like a worst case scenario where one of my top guys goes down. But overall I'm just trying to roster as many of those immediate backups as I

can. Like we talked about earlier, you never know when they could get their opportunity and that value could, could rise up. So yeah, it's not something that I really concerned myself with too much in dynasty. This was an interesting question. I don't know if you have an answer, but which dynasty QB wide receiver stack will be the most profitable profitable is an interesting word to use there for the foreseeable future so i don't know you could take this a lot of different directions just the best one in dynasty or the one that maybe is too cheap right now which qb

wide receiver stack will be the most profitable for the foreseeable future to me i'm taking it as like who's going to be the best and i i think it's really i think there's two main options you could maybe argue for a third but uh joe burrow jamar chase like knowing that t hagens probably is going to be moving on that's going to put chase into that conversation with you know the cd lambs and those guys that are the main targets on their team and And I think we're going to see Chase's numbers go even higher when that happens. So, um, I think those two are there and people maybe are, you know, discounting them a little bit because the burrow injury and because Higgins has been there and maybe we haven't seen that just monster monster season from Chase yet. Um, it's coming. It definitely is. Um, the, the maybe a

little bit cheaper one would be kyler murray and marvin harrison marvin harrison is very expensive but kyler murray to me somebody that i think is undervalued big time in dynasty right now like when he's been out there he can be a strong quarterback one for you and he's had some injuries there's always maybe he's one of those david montgomery josh jacobs types where the public perception on him is down all the stuff with the video games and everything. Um, but he's been a good fantasy quarterback when he's been healthy. So I think that dynamic having a really strong number one receiver for him, having Trey McBride there who's come on, who in my mind is going to be like the de facto number two receiver in that offense. Um, I think those two, and then if Dak Prescott, we're going to stay in Dallas. I still think he's going to normally like the de facto number two receiver in that offense. I think those two. And then if Dak Prescott were going to stay in Dallas,

I still think he's going to normally the Cowboys end up paying their guys. They do this whole long dance, but in the end, they normally give them big contracts. So I think Dak is going to stick around. If Dak stays him and CD lamb probably are right there, you know, maybe a little bit behind those other guys, but you could make an argument for those two as well. Awesome. Awesome stuff. That's Justin Boone. Justin, once again, just tell everybody where they can find you and what you've got coming up. Well, uh, the, the big

one is the score fantasy football draft kit, which is coming out on Wednesday, this week, uh, everything in their award-winning rankings, dynasty trade value charts. We'll have strategy articles, and I keep updating it every single day all the way until the season kicks off so keep checking back on that one score fantasy football podcast we're ramping up now more episodes per week i think we're going up to three now we'll be five during the season and we'll get you back on heath for sure excited for that follow me on twitter at justin boone tweet out a lot of my content And yeah, download the score app if you haven't already. And not just for my stuff, but I mean, the actual box scores, the other content we got going on there.

It's a fantastic app and it's 100% free. So go check that out. Thank you, Justin. Thank you, Harry. Thanks to Adam Hazer, even though he's not here anymore. I hope your knee's okay. Thanks to everybody in the chat. We will talk to you guys next Tuesday.