Fantasy Football Today - Heath Stats and a Mailbag! (07/05 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 5, 2021

Heath is bringing some serious stats today as he looks at Noah Fant's production (4:00), Clyde Edwards-Helaire's snaps (8:00) and Saquon Barkley's production since his rookie season (12:25). What should we make of all of it? ... We read your Apple Podcast questions (18:45)! We've got advice for salary cap leagues, thoughts on when to draft Najee Harris, keeper questions and more ... Reading your emails (29:30) about how to make projections, the best players available after Round 10, Trevor Lawrence and more dynasty talk ... Your emails at [e-mail] 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben. Happy 5th of July, everybody. Hope you had an awesome holiday. This, of course, is actually Friday, July 2nd. Heath and I are recording this one, but airing it on Monday, so you can all have something to enjoy on your day off. And honestly, I hope everybody just had an amazing—

I hope it was better than last year. Last year before the July absolutely sucked. So I'm I hope everybody just had an amazing, I hope it was better than last year. Last year, 4th of July, absolutely sucked. So I'm hoping, it's only Friday right now, but I'm expecting a fun, fun weekend for everybody around the country

and hopefully all of our international listeners as well. Heath, happy 5th. Yeah, I hope I'm not currently getting bombarded by Elsa.

Oh, yeah. Yeah, she is not letting it go. Just turned into a hurricane right before we started recording this podcast. Elsa sucks. Screw Elsa. We're going to talk about

some Heath stats, some Azer stats. Nothing really too complicated. Oh, man, I'm just going to yell. I'm just going to yell at Heath for an entire segment. It's going to be awesome. And your emails, your Apple podcast questions.

Our email address is fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. That is the letter I, fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. And leave a five-star review and a question on Apple Podcasts. It's a great way to get your question read on the air. We'll start with an email of the day. It is from Matt in somewhere in Canada. I probably should have picked an American email, right? But no, it's cool. We like Canada.

Matt says, Dear XRP, ADA, and XLM. I had to look those up. I think they're cryptocurrencies. Oh. Yeah. Not my game. I'm drafting from the two spot

in all the mocks I do. I always take Cook second overall, but I'm always faced with the dilemma to take Justin Jefferson or someone else at 211. Should I avoid stacking the Minnesota duo and look elsewhere? Man, I have a... Oh, no. Heath froze.

It would be really... Heath, you're back. I think really interesting, but I'm not probably going to. Wait, wait, wait, Heath. I missed it. No, I don't have a problem with taking both Cook and Jefferson. I'd be surprised if Jefferson was there at 2-11 in a lot of drafts. I think we're having a little bit of an issue.

Heath wasn't hearing me. I missed some of the beginning of what Heath said, but I think you're back. Wave. Can you wave? Yeah, I'm totally here. All right, we're good. Yeah.

So you would take Jefferson there? I don't have a problem with that, yeah. I mean, I might not take Jefferson there just because I have A.J. Brown ranked higher. But if A.J. Brown was gone, I don't think it's a bad spot to take Jefferson. You've talked about this in years past that Minnesota might not have...

This is when we were talking about Diggs and Thielen. Might not have been a very pass-heavy offense, but very concentrated. So it was at least fairly reliable. They weren't as high-end as Jefferson, but you knew where the targets were going. Yes, that's the way it's been. Now they change offensive coordinators every year now

without actually changing their system. So it's possible that things get spread out a little bit more, but I, I can't imagine after what they saw Jefferson do as a rookie, they want to throw it to him less. All right. We are going to be live with mock draft. You can see where Justin Jefferson will go. Will he go to the Dalvin cook manager? We'll find out live on the fantasy football today, YouTube channel tomorrow.

That is Tuesday, 7 PM Eastern with a mock draft. So join us at youtube.com slash fantasyfootball today. We are going to have Adam Rank, Joe Pisapia, and Nando Dufino all on. Hit the subscribe button on the channel. We will see you Tuesday night, 7 p.m. Eastern,

youtube.com slash fantasyfootball today. Time for some Heath stats. Okay. Let's go. Let's see what you got. You basically hate all of these stats. I. Let's go. Let's see what you got. You basically hate all of these stats. I only know two of the three,

but I kind of hate that. I definitely hate the Saquon Barkley one. Go ahead. Noah Fant played 13 complete games last year. One of those games

was the infamous Kendall Hinton game. So I think if you were putting together an Acer stat, you would very comfortably say, let's look at his 12 games with a quarterback that he completed. In those 12 games, 56 catches, 625 yards, three touchdowns.

Ignore the extremely unlucky touchdown rate for a moment. That's 11.5 PPR fantasy points per game, despite that touchdown rate. Is that great? No, but it was better than every other tight end besides Kelsey, Kittle, Waller, and Andrews last year. It was a half a point better than TJ Hawkinson last year, despite the fact that

he only scored three touchdowns. I don't hate the stat. I really don't. I hate the omission of Courtland Sutton in the Noah Fant analysis. That's my only thing. What happens there? Courtland Sutton targets went to Noah Fant. Tim Patrick, KJ Hamler, and Deshaun Hamilton combined for like 170 targets last year. Those guys are the guys that lose targets to Courtland Sutton. I don't think the tight end targets go to him. So the Acer stat that I would respond to Noah Fant with,

and Noah Fant is someone that worries me a little bit, because if I'm drafting Noah Fant, what Noah Fant is someone that worries me a little bit because if I'm drafting Noah Fant, what, maybe eighth round? Yeah. Right. Instead of TJ Hawkinson in the fifth. I at least want a shot at Noah Fant being a top five tight end. And the stat that I gave, I don't remember what show it was, Friday or whatever, was that there's only been one tight end in the last five seasons who finished top five and wasn't second or first on his team in targets. And that was... But on a per-game basis,

if you only count his games that he played a full game with a quarterback, he was a top five tight end last year. I mean, yeah, and he was first or second on his team in targets. I just don't know that he's going to be that this year because of Sutton, you know? Right.

I understand what you're saying, but I think with tight end, guys that really make huge jumps are, from what I'm seeing, are ones that are first or second on their team in targets. Now, he might be so close. Like, Tunyon was fourth on his team in targets, but he was only three or four behind number two.

So he was basically second. He was really close. It might be a situation like that. And that would work nicely for Fant. I just don't see... To be clear, if you traded Hawkinson and Fant, or they were in the same exact situation, I and everyone else in the world, I think, would rank Fant higher than Hawkinson.

I think Fant is a better receiver. We all think that. Here's what I would say, and the number I gave earlier wasn't quite right. 179 targets went to Tim Patrick, KJ Hamler, and Deshaun Hamilton. Fant, in those 12 games, was on pace for 113 targets, which was the exact same number that Jerry Judy had last year. So Sutton only played week one, right? Correct. So you

could be 185 targets for those if you want to include Sutton's six targets. So Sutton had six in week one and Fant had six in week one. Oh no, no, no. He played week two. He only played a half of week two. And he had six targets in a half of week two. Fant had five in that game.

I don't know what you did. I mean, I'm not going to look at one game. But all right. Look, good stat. He was better than... Basically, you're saying he was better than Hawkinson last year on a per-game basis. And you rank Hawkinson higher, right? But you'd rather wait on Fant?

Exactly. Okay. I have them in terms of overall rankings in the same round. Okay. So you want to do Edward Ziller or Barkley next? Your choice. Let's save the best for last.

Let's go Edward Ziller now. Give me your Clyde Edward Ziller stat. I just think this is really weird for a rookie. Clyde Edward Ziller played at least 60% of the snaps in each of his first six NFL games. That alone is really rare for a running back. He topped 60% of the snaps once in his final nine games. We talk a lot about the great finishes from Cam Akers, Jonathan Taylor, DeAndre Swift, J.K. Dobbins, and how they finish strong and that's going to carry over into 2021. Shouldn't it bother us a little bit that Clyde Edwards-Hilaire played so much more early in the year than he did later in the year?

And it's not like some of this, when you use a number like 60%, it could be cherry-picking a lot. He was below 50% in several games in the second half of the year. He was up around 70% in several games early in the year. Some of it was injuries. He struggled with injuries. Now, I don't know if that's something

you want to use in his favor, but he struggled with injuries in the second half. Also, some of it was they chose Le'Veon Bell or Daryl Williams in certain situations over Clyde Evers-Lehrer. Le'Veon Bell and Daryl Williams in certain situations over Clyde Ebersoleer. Le'Veon Bell and Daryl Williams were not good. They just chose to play.

They trusted them more in certain situations than they trusted him. After they trusted him enough at the start of the year to play him as a workhorse back the first six weeks. Well, I don't know how you're

projecting the Chiefs, but I do think their offensive philosophy, I feel like I keep repeating these things, I'm sorry, their offensive philosophy is going to have a major, major impact on four players. Kelsey and Hill and Mahomes are going to be great no matter what, but if they go back to first six games of the season, before the Le'Veon Bell trade, and I don't think they'll have anything to do with that,

it just happened to work out this way. First six games of the season, Mahomes, 36.5 pass attempts per game. Last nine games of the season, 41 pass attempts per game. And I think it's even more tilted if you go like the seventh game of the season was a blowout and they didn't throw much.

Their philosophy changed. They stopped running the ball. And that's what killed Clyde Edwards-Ziller. If they go back to the first six weeks, Clyde Edwards-Ziller was on pace for 285 carries and 56 catches. So he had bad touchdown luck, but he actually was better than not Taylor. But like, it's funny. It's another six game sample size.

And Edwards-Ziller's first six games were better than most of the other six-game sample sizes when you look at Swift and Dobbins and Gibson and all that. Not Taylor's. So I just don't know what the Chiefs are going to do offensively. Are they going to try to be more balanced? Are they going to go back to just being amazing, just give the ball to Mahomes and let him throw 40 times a game?

Because if they do, Kelsey and Hill could be the two most valuable players in fantasy behind McCaffrey. So I don't't know what do you think about their philosophy i don't have any idea but um i would anticipate they have patrick mahomes they're going to be pass heavy um and and the other thing is like one of that's one of the i think that that explanation correlates well with why clyde edwards layer didn't play very much because he was not very good in the passing game. He was below average on a per-target basis. His catch rate, 67% for a running back playing with Patrick Mahomes,

is pretty awful, and he didn't block particularly well either. So that makes sense. They passed more, he played less. Part of the whole thing, though, about the Andy Reid running back is how involved they've been in the passing game and that just hasn't been as true with patrick mahomes and it certainly certainly wasn't true for him okay what if what about gibson versus edwards hilaire what about dobbins versus him um i pretty strongly prefer gibson to edwards hilaire in all formats i will take dobson dobbins over him in non-ppr and half ppr if it's full ppr i that he's kind of like like i always rank or project nick chubb in full ppr outside of the top 12 and everybody's like why don't you think nick chubb's awesome and it's

because he's going to catch 14 passes um i don't know i'm'm not going to project Dobbins very well on PPR. Okay. All right. And now your Saquon Barkley stat. Several, several Saquon Barkley giant stats. You can just explain these one at a time. The first one's just interesting, and it's actually a Daniel Jones stat that could apply to Saquon Barkley. Daniel Jones averaged 35 pass attempts per game last year and losses.

He averaged 26.6 in wins. Okay. That is a massive gap compared to other teams with a similar record. Like Kirk Cousins was 31 to 33. It wasn't much of a difference. Justin Herbert was 38 to 40. Not much of a difference. Teddy was 32 to 33. There was a

mass. The Giants, when they had a lead, did not want Daniel Jones throwing the ball. This is bad for Saquon Barkley? Just interesting. I think it would be bad for Saquon Barkley if the Giants, with maybe an improved offensive line, but still likely no better than average offensive line. I would say you'd have to project below average. Yeah, you do. If they are run heavy in an obvious way, that's bad for Saquon Barkley because he's not going to be efficient as a runner in that environment.

Oh, I don't know about that. And he's not going to have very many targets. He's so good. I think he can overcome. I don't think he can be like 5.5 yards per carry or something. That brings us to the second stat. It's just really, really weird. I'm just going to shred it.

In 20 games with Eli Manning, Saquon Barkley averaged 5.2 yards per carry. In 11 games with Daniel Jones, he's averaged 3.8 yards per carry. Yeah. You know, he was hurt though. He came back from that ankle injury.

He played, I would say probably half of those games. Well, he wasn't hurt week one of last year. No. And they played the Steelers in week one and the average is 0.4. It was really bad. And I went back and I found some other running backs,

great running backs with performances like that. I don't know. What do you, I think he's four and a half yards per carry or better. I think that probably depends. I think that's in the range. I probably have him projected right. I'm going to look.

I probably have him projected right around four and a half yards per carry. Yeah, I've got him just over that, 4.6. But you know with Barkley, if he's the same player that he was, and that's obviously the big question, but if he's the same player that he was, he's the same player that he was and that's obviously the big question but if he's the same player that he was he's the most explosive running back in football he's the most likely to break off a big run

and that's obviously going to help his efficiency the look of it that's what he is he's probably not more likely to break off a big run than Nick Chubb I mean maybe Chubb is terrific and you know I love Chubb in that regard but I historical evidence. Chubb is terrific at that. You know I love Chubb in that regard.

I know you love Chubb. I do. Oh, hey, Ben. What's up? Happy 5th. Hey, good to see you, Vin. Right on time. And then the final Barkley stat was that he averaged 20% more targets, right around 7.4 per game with Eli Manning,

and 6.1 per game with eli manning and 6.1 per game with daniel jones yeah so this one's really interesting well first of all 6.1 per game is still pretty good right yeah yeah that's a 96 target pace yeah i mean that's that's great and i've i've said this a lot if you look at barkley in his rookie season his first eight games he was basically matt forte he was on pace for 116 catches and 142 targets. But then, and this is all Eli Manning this year, then they had a bye in week nine, and then after that, you said 6.1 targets per game under Daniel Jones?

After those eight games, the last eight games of the regular season, he didn't play in the playoffs, so the last eight games, 6.3 targets. So that's, yeah, I mean, I think Barkley is like a 55 catch guy, something like that, maybe a little bit more upside. I don't think he's a big difference maker in the passing game. None of this was actually to troll you, even though it's fun to troll you. It was because I was riding the lead to my bust piece, which is out on the site now, and Saquon

Barkley is the feature bust, I guess, in my most recent bust column. And the reason is in the consensus rankings, he's RB4 currently. I was using the consensus rankings, not ADP, but consensus expert rankings for who I was saying the industry is too high on.

If he doesn't have 2018 upside, but he does have currently not 100% risk, possibly playing behind a bottom 10 offensive line risk, possibly playing on a team that scores 25 touchdowns again risk, he should not be a first round pick.

Yeah, I mean, I think if he's healthy, he's a first-round pick. I just, you know. Because of what he did in 2018. Yeah, yeah. And at the end of 2019, I mean, the end of 2019, when I guess he got healthier, he was incredible. You know, he was incredible.

And not to mention, like, Jason Garrett is just a guy who likes to punch the ball into the end zone. Wayne Gallman scored six touchdowns in five games in his stretch. And then he had 135 yards the next game.

You know, that's more touchdowns than Saquon Barkley has scored in 11 games with Daniel Jones. Well, he's never had Daniel Jones and Jason Garrett except for one game. I do think it's worth mentioning

that one of those really good games at the end of 2019 was with Eli Manning. I just don't really see how many catches did he have in that game? Four. It's not like he had seven catches. I don't see why Eli Manning versus Daniel Jones matters.

It's more like 2018 versus what we've seen since for the most part, what we've seen since right is, is a guy who played hurt in 2019 and then finished very strong. And then a guy who played one game in 2020, one and a half. So I look, I get it. It's of all the,

of all the running backs that you're taking in round one, he's on the worst offense, at least as we start the season, as we make our guesses. At least with the information we have right now, he's probably the biggest injury risk. Yeah, I think that's fair. And I think there is definitely some risk there. You're just hoping that he's still that special talent.

I don't know that we even need the Acer stats. Heath did a great job with your stats. We can save the Acer stats for another time. Let's get to our listener questions here. First from Apple Podcast. This is from Ballin. Ballin, $32. Really?

Can we do the Acer stats on FFT and 5? No, I'd like to save them for a... Okay. Because I don't want to do more work. So, here's our ball in $32 in a small town close to Ogden, which is in Utah. Do you know any small towns in Utah?

No, I stayed in Utah for a couple of days in a place not far from Vegas and did some rock climbing, but I can't remember even the town and it wasn't that small. Plain City. Plain City. Perfect. Hi, Michael, Tom, Lionel and Ken.

Mom... No. The question is, please rate the jaguars receiving room b minus yeah and also rank them oh okay i didn't say that i think you i go charke marvin jones chenault but the difference in ADP is probably bigger than... I'm going to readjust the projections on Jacksonville a little bit. Because it's a new regime. And the only guy that they chose to actually have on the roster is Marvin Jones. And the quote we saw about Chenault's been great.

The quotes we've seen about Chark have not. So I'm going to move them a little bit closer together but it'll still be chark jones chanel okay so michael like i i was thinking michael jackson and lionel richie yeah i think this might be people who sang we are the world okay mich. Michael Jackson, Lionel Richie. Is there a Tom in there? I don't think there's a Tom. Kenny Loggins was in there. Kenny Rogers was in there. I don't know. I don't know, man.

It's probably something football that I should get. From Hobbsy Jr., I'm starting a salary cap league, two keepers, half PPR. Any strategy advice you could give me would be great. So again, this is a salary cap league, two keepers, half PPR. Any strategy advice you could give me would be great. So, again, this is a salary cap league, two keepers, half PPR.

Starting it up. Give them some advice for a salary cap league. Hmm. Well, do you like studs and duds? Do you like balance roster? It's tough with because it's so especially salary cap leagues are so dependent on what everyone else does what i would say is figure out your budget our values are based

on a 100 budget put together values before the draft that you believe players should go for whether it's based on hours or like whatever system you want to use have some values that correlate to the total amount of dollars that are available and then really pay attention early on because sometimes in auctions the first 10 15 players like jamie's thing was always i'm going to sit out the first 30 players or something. And that works really well as long as people are overpaying early. It does not work out well in drafts

where the first 10 to 15 players go below what you think they should. Then there's a bunch of, I've been in that situation where there's a bunch of money left at the end and you'll see like the number five wide receiver who happens to be the last one of a tier goes from lots more than the first four. So you really got to pay attention. The other thing I would say in terms of nominating, there's two strategies. I like Jamie's strategy of get your kicker in defense early or make somebody else pay $2 for it when you don't want to.

$2 out of $100 usually. Right. It might be three. The other thing is the high-profile guys that you don't want, the guys that would be your busts, those are my favorite guys to nominate because you're making people spend their money on guys you don't want anyway yeah i i don't know why i always feel like the

fifth six round pick guys are the best values you know um and in ours there's almost always a starting tight end and a starting quarterback that goes for a dollar. Absolutely. Yeah. So there's so fun. In fact, the fantasy baseball league that I check in on the most is the one salary cap league that I'm in because this is really, it's the best way to do it. You're never just at the mercy of who's available on your draft board. Everyone's available.

Then you have to come up with a strategy and you have to put it all together and it's the best. And I'm in seventh place, but I'm only five points away from being in fourth place. So I'm doing okay. Got some pitching injuries. Need to get healthy there. Need to get healthy.

But, you know, when you draft Steven Strasburg and Corey Kluber, what should you expect? From Conman3, I have Tua in the 15th round of a Superflex Keeper League. Is that value too good? Yes. Is that value too good to pass up? Thoughts on Tua's possible outcomes? You keep him. As that value too good to pass up? Thoughts on two as possible outcomes?

You keep him. As far as the possible outcomes, there's way more than two of them. I still believe his pedigree gives us reason to believe that he could make a major leap this year, especially with Jalen Waddell, Will Fuller, and Devontae Parker as receivers.

And there's still significant risk that he just doesn't ever regain what he had in Alabama three years ago, I guess it was now. So very much a great keeper at that cost. Also not someone you can totally rely on. From TheRonster2008, Hello Thomas, Cameron, and Drew.

Are those Saints? I was thinking Jordans. Why? Who's Drew Jordan? I don't know. JD Drew? Maybe JD's first name was Jordan? Cameron Jordan, Michael Thomas?

Yeah, Cameron Jordan, but this doesn't make sense. Oh, it's Saints. Yeah, but it's Thomas, Cameron, and Drew. It's not Michael, Cameron, Cameron Drew, but this doesn't make sense. Oh, it's Saints. Yeah, but it's Thomas Cameron and Drew. It's not Michael Cameron and Drew. All right, we're going to hit up Google. Looking for some help with my PPR Keeper League. Which is the best keeper value out of the following running backs? Cam Akers in the third, J.K. Dobbins in the seventh,

or James Robinson in the 15th? PPR. I will still go with Dobbins in the 15th? PPR. I will still go with Dobbins, even though it's PPR. The only thing I'm seeing here are are yeah, Saints.

Going Saints. From GDeg6. How high is too high for Najee Harris? I think first round is too high for Najee Harris I think first round is too high for Najee Harris but top 15 okay I'm not there and but like I would I think late second early third is where I'm more comfortable with them but you're not going to get in there so again this is a question of how bad do you want Najee Harris you You shouldn't take him in the first round. If you take him in the second round, it's fine.

Akers, Mixon, Harris. Rank them. Mixon, Akers, Harris. Okay. From DannyMac25, Applebee's quesadilla burger is the best item on the menu. I think you missed our Applebee's conversation. Yeah, that's a strange email. No, I was saying that I went to Applebee's.

Oh, we were doing the welcome back song, you know, because we were welcoming Chris back. And then I was like, I love it on the Applebee's commercial. And then we started talking about Applebee's. And I said it was pretty good last time I went. I don't remember. I think it was about five, six years ago. And this is a good place. And then Dave said something about a quesadilla burger. And I said they have a good last time I went. I don't remember. I think it was about five, six years ago. And this is a good place.

And then Dave said something about a quesadilla burger, and I said they have a quesadilla burger. And now I know from DannyMac25 that the quesadilla burger is the best item on the menu, and it sounds damn good. I don't believe I've been to Applebee's since I moved to Florida. No, we definitely have them down there. You don't have to look too hard. There's not one in my area.

Okay. From Parisian Bubz. them down there yeah you have to look too hard there's not one in my area okay from parisian bubs says hey michael coach chris and sean this is an easy one i'm just kidding i have absolutely no idea a few weeks ago you mentioned the slow drafts are not the ideal drafting format my dynasty league is considering doing our rookie draft as a slow draft for the first time in order to encourage more mid-draft trade opportunities. What do you think of this? And what are your suggestions for pick times? It's much better for rookie drafts, I think. And I don't have a problem with it. The struggle is when it's a slow draft and it's training camp and there's things that are actually happening.

But a slow draft this time of year, I'm perfectly fine with. I wasn't on that show either. I don't remember that. If you only have a few drafts, don't do a slow draft. If you have 10 drafts, one slow draft, it might not be the worst thing. Four-hour clock or eight-hour clock

are the two suggestions that I would have. All right. And that is it for our Apple Podcast questions. So thank you for those. Keep them coming. Leave us a five-star review. We're going to take a break. And when we come back,

reading your emails at fantasyfootball at cbsi.com. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference. Securian Canada gives you that coverage. For more than 65 years, Securian Canada has been helping Canadians build secure tomorrows. Their insurance solutions are designed to help protect you and your loved ones financially, giving you the peace of mind to focus on what truly matters. Find their products through banks, credit unions, and associations. Or visit SecurianCanada.ca. Securian Canada. Insurance designed for life. Did you know 66% of utility damage is caused by not requesting a locate?

Don't let your project become part of this statistic. A quick locate request can save you from unexpected downtime, financial penalties, and keep you safe. Don't let avoidable damage cost you time and money. Click before you dig. Ensure your next project is safe. Visit OntarioOneCall.ca. It's free. It's easy. It's the law. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. Welcome back, everybody. Dear Larry, Kevin, Robert, and Danny. Okay, that one we know, right? Come on, Heath. This is the second time.

Larry, Kevin, Robert, and Danny. Like, you think you're a Celtics fan. I just do not understand. I don't think about basketball when I'm on this podcast. All right, well, this is Mark from a town in Long Island, and he wants to know, which football statistics are most predictable slash projectable from year to year?

Which do you rely on most when building your projections? I would say that, as a rule, efficiency is not the way to go. So volume is more projectable, predictable. Catches, stuff like that. Touchdowns are not. And efficiency, at least until you get a few years into a player's career, really isn't either. What I use to build my projections starts a lot with volume projections and then kind of builds out from there.

How do you project touchdowns for DeAndre Hopkins, who used to be a very reliable double-digit touchdown guy, and he has, I believe, 13 to 15 in the last two years combined with a ton of targets for a player of his um extended resume i will it'll be a combination of his career touchdown rate meshed with his uh touchdown rate with kyler murray meshed with how many touchdown like kyler affects him quite a bit because he has been a pretty low touchdown rate quarterback and even like you just say kingsbury's offense has been a pretty low touchdown rate quarterback. And even like you just said, Kingsbury's offense has been for passing. And so it's a mesh between what he's done for his career and what he's done recently. For a guy like A.J. Brown, it's more of a mesh between what he's done in his career and what is more normal in the league. Because he's got a 10% career touchdown rate.

Nobody does that. But it's that, and then it's also like when you have a guy on a team that you don't project to score as many touchdowns, like the Giants, you've got to take a few touchdowns off sometimes because you don't want to... The one team I've really struggled with that on

is Tampa Bay. If you projected all of the Bucs pass catchers to score at their career rates, then you would need to project Tom Brady to be the best quarterback in the history of fantasy football. Well, one of my Acer stats that we didn't get to was that in his last seven

games, Antonio Brown played eight games. Last seven games, he was the number three quarterback per game. Tom Brady behind Allen and Rogers. He was on pace for more than 5, yards i think more than 40 touchdowns it's uh don't forget about how good he was when they added antonio brown and uh now the first game with antonio brown that was the saints game was a total dud but then after

that uh he went he got rolling and going back to the uh the volume, that's one thing where Dave and I disagree. And he'll talk about a guy, or even Jamie and I, a guy having a bunch of carries the year before or having a bunch of tread on the tire is worrisome for possible injuries. And that makes logical sense. But also, studies have shown that volume begets volume. Guys that have shown the ability to hold up to 300 touches are more likely to get 300 touches in the future. All right, this is from Garrett. Grade my trade in a half PPR 12-team dynasty league. I traded Miles Sanders and Michael Thomas for Jonathan Taylor.

I'm going to pull up the trade chart. What's your initial thought on giving up those two for Jonathan Taylor? Even C. An even C? Yeah. My trade chart's based on full PPR, but I think it's still going to like it. I've got Taylor as currently my second most

valuable player in Dynasty. And yeah, I still think that's probably a little bit too much to give up for him. Oh, you would not give up Sanders and Thomas? I would not. Okay.

From C- From Andy from a town around 10,000 lakes. Minneapolis. Dear Boggs, Brooks,

Tommy, and Andy. No. I have 1.1 of my dynasty rookie draft. My quarterbacks are Brady and Roethlisberger. Do I have 1.1 of my dynasty rookie draft. My quarterbacks are Brady and Roethlisberger. Do I have to go Trevor Lawrence?

My running backs and wide receivers are slightly above average, and I have Kittle at tight end. I assume it's a one quarterback league. Right. I assume so. Right. Yeah. No, I would take Jamar Chase.

Okay. From Kevin. The top five wide receivers after round 10 episode was extremely interesting. Based on the latest podcast and my amateur opinion of running backs, it seems that round 10 and after is mostly a wasteland. Do you think you'll have an episode in the near future

with suggestions on which positions to target and strategies for round 10 and after? Well, we won't have an episode, but we can talk. Oh, Boggs, Brooks, Tommy, and Andy. That's Shawshank. We're right at that. Yeah, I mostly am targeting other people's backup running backs after round 10. Maybe my starting quarterback after

round 10 obviously if you play with defense and kickers that's where you take them after round 10 see if i have this cool stat yes in the last three seasons where have we gotten the best value all right how many great values have we had after round 10 or later? So these are guys who finished in the top six at quarterback or tight end or the top 18 at running back or wide receiver. I randomly picked those arbitrary numbers. Top six at quarterback or tight end. Top 18 at running back or wide receiver.

How many of each position? Five quarterbacks, seven running backs, five wide receivers, nine tight ends. Tight end has actually given us the most value in round 10 or later. I was surprised there was only five quarterbacks, but if you made it round nine, it would have been a lot more.

You had Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers last year were very close to round nine. One was 8.10, one was 9.05. The year before that, Lamar Jackson and Jameis Winston were close to round nine. One was 8.10, one was 9.05. The year before that, Lamar Jackson and Jameis Winston were both in round nine, and they finished in the top five.

So round nine, it felt like, you know, then it would have been a quarterback discussion. You go round 10 or later, quarterback and wide receiver, only five great values, seven running backs, nine tight ends. You know, food for ends. There you go. Yeah.

Okay. And one more email from Luke. Subject line, do I dare keep Daniel Jones? And then the email, gotcha. Of course you don't have

Daniel Jones on my championship winning team. Okay. So he says, who do I keep in full PPR? Superflex, two keeper league, six point per-per-passing touchdown. So it's Super Flex and it's six-point-per-passing touchdown.

Okay, he has, and he can only keep two. He has Justin Jefferson, Calvin Ridley, A.J. Brown, and Tyreek Hill. He also has Dak Prescott and Austin Eckler. And he has to just keep two of them. It's full PPR. Holy cow. I mean, I'm keeping Dak. By the way, it's two wide receivers, two running backs,

but also three flex and a super flex. I'm keeping Dak and Tyreek. Okay. Folks, that's it. I got to say 4th of July is my favorite holiday. So happy. Yeah. Well, I love it.

Happy 4th. I'm glad you enjoyed it so much. Oh, burgers I made were fantastic. Good. And the hot dogs. Thank you all for listening. I hope you had an awesome holiday weekend. Back tomorrow with a more live episode of Fantasy Football.

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