Fantasy Football Today - Heath's Bold Predictions! (06/07 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 7, 2023

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Heath starts his bold predictions episode with a second year wide receiver that will be even better than we expect (2:55)! Yes, it's Garrett Wilson we're talking about, but just how good will he be? Then we read a Heath tweet (11:24) about a current head coach while calling the coach's credentials into question. What might it mean for his team in 2023? ... News and notes (19:15) on Michael Thomas, Rachaad White, Ezekiel Elliott, the top WR for the Packers and a lot more ... A couple more bold predictions from Heath: Pat Freiermuth will be TE3 (24:15); Tua Tagovailoa is going to have a tremendous season (33:15). Plenty of debate on these bold calls including whether or not George Pickens will have more targets than Freiermuth ... Your emails at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Heath's Bold Predictions on this edition of fantasy football today on a Wednesday morning. What's going on everybody. How about a tight end three. Who's going to be tight end three. A shockingly bold call about the number three tight end in fantasy. A quarterback who's going to throw for 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns.

Plus this is not a bold prediction but a report about who the current number one wide receiver for the Green Bay Packers is. All that and more right now on Fantasy Football Today. Adam, Heath, and Dave here. Heath, how are you feeling today? Feeling bold? I am feeling perplexed that you just said we have a report about who the current number one wide receiver in Green Bay is. Because that does not sound like something that you would tease if the answer to that question was Christian Watson. Correct.

Correct. It was an ESPN article about who has the best connection and is getting a ton of targets from Jordan Love right now. It's Romeo Dobbs. So we will talk about that. It's going to be a show of perplexing information. I think so. That's what we do. That's what we're known for. Just confusing everyone. Hey, Dave. What's up, man? How's everybody doing?

Yeah, well, we got an air quality alert up here in the Northeast. Not really supposed to go out of the house today, which is not a big adjustment for me. But Canadian wildfires. Hope everybody is doing okay up in Canada and the Northeast and actually in parts of the Midwest too. It's kind of crazy. So that's what's going on here. How are you, Dave? And then we'll get into a bold prediction. I have put together my bold predictions for Thursday's show.

I kind of want to share them with you, Adam, just to get your reaction to them. In the past, I've been accused of not being bold enough. I'm trying to break that habit. I want to be bolder, but I hate bold predictions on the premise that we're just saying goofy stuff that we wish would come true and that we don't actually rank it the way that we say it with bold predictions. Although I did cheat. I looked at Heath's, and Heath does rank one of his bold predictions like he thinks it will go down. So I'm curious to talk about all of his,

and then I'm curious to get your reaction to all of mine. Okay. I want to go on the record saying I don't think you should rank your bold predictions, or do your rankings as your bold predictions, because then... I think you should.

Be bold, man. Well, all right. Do it! Okay. All right. Heath, start us off with one of your three. We're doing three bold predictions from Heath today. He actually gave me five. There'll be two more that we'll talk about on FFT and five. So check that out, but give me one of the three we're talking about today. I mean, let's just go with Garrett Wilson. I've, I've, um, expressed some apprehension about Aaron Rogers commitment to football and the jets and how good he still is.

But let's just say that Aaron Rodgers is Aaron Rodgers once again. Garrett Wilson will lead all wide receivers in targets, catches, and PPR fantasy points in 2023. That's right, better than Justin Jefferson, better than Jamar Chase. Rodgers is going to drop back, see that green 17, and not throw the ball to anyone else all season long. 180 targets for Garrett Wilson. We just saw him put up an 1,100-yard season on 147 targets as a rookie.

We always say when he didn't have Zach Wilson, I don't know that we talk enough about the fact that he didn't just average 17 fantasy points per game when he didn't have Zach Wilson. He averaged 17 fantasy points per game with Joe Flacco, with Mike White, and I believe there may have even been a little Chris Streveler thrown in there. There was some other guy, right? He stunk with Streveler. That was actually half a game against Jacksonville, and that was a really bad weather game, and nobody knew what to do on that Thursday night. So not Streveler, but the other guys, yes.

He is an elite prospect. That's the reason that he was a top 12 pick as a rookie. He now has a quarterback who has been known for just zoning in on that one guy who can get open against anybody and throwing it to him over and over and over. He's already shown an ability. Joe Flacco in like the second game of Garrett Wilson's career was raving about how good Garrett Wilson is in the red zone. And we know Rogers famous for throwing double digit touchdown passes to the guy who's best in the red zone on his team.

So this could be a situation where Wilson just does all of the things and finishes as the best wide receiver in fantasy. Hey, yeah. And he, he hit that 900. We can talk about the 900 yard mark if you want, but we kind of came up with this 900 yard rule, uh, in the last, since like 2000, almost every rookie wide receiver who's gotten to 900 yards is someone you want on your fantasy team. You know, the, most of them do better than they did in their rookie seasons. A lot of them just have really, really good careers. It's a great market. He blew past it with over a thousand yards. Dave, what do you think about this bowl prediction? Number one, wide receiver, Garrett Wilson. I have a hard time believing that it'll come true,

but considering that I have him ranked higher than both Jamie and Heath, I'm going to go ahead and give my endorsement on it, but I'd be happy to play devil's advocate here and explain why I'd be nervous about him finishing even as a top five fantasy wide receiver. For one thing, the Jets averaged about 37 pass attempts per game last year. They had the fourth highest pass rate overall. I think both those numbers come down. I think that they're going to want to try and be a little bit more balanced, and I think their defense will let them.

And I think Aaron Rodgers' efficiency as a passer will let them. And maybe that efficiency rubs off on Garrett Wilson, gives him a chance to finish close to the top five. But there is so much evidence of Aaron Rogers just leaning on one guy. There's evidence of it from last year. Once he had confidence in Christian Watson, we saw Watson getting high value targets, downfield throws, extra targets like on screens and stuff like that.

He wasn't necessarily the top target getter. There were some games where he was, but Aaron Rogers absolutely gravitates towards the guy that he has the most confidence in. And I would be stunned if this season starts and the guy that he has the most confidence in is Alan Lazard or Corey Davis. I mean, come on,

it's, it's gotta be Garrett Wilson. He's the most explosive receiver for him to be number one though, he would just need to get like 35% target share, 70% of those targets, and get a slew of touchdowns. He would have to score more touchdowns than any other wide receiver. I'm a little bit nervous about that. I think he would have been bold if you had said top five wide receiver, because I feel like it's a lock on who the top five wide receivers are. And you do think that you should rank it as the bold prediction goes. And so by that measure, I would agree with you. This is not probably going to happen. But I think the question you have to ask yourself is, is it possible that Garrett Wilson could be as good as Devontae Adams?

Yes. If he can't, I don't know. Yes, obviously he can. Yes, he can. Devontae Adams has led the NFL in receiving touchdowns twice. Devontae Adams had four consecutive years with Aaron Rodgers where he averaged more than 10 targets per game, even when Rodgers wasn't throwing the ball 37 times per game because one-third of Rodgers' passes went to Devontae Adams.

Basically, if Garrett Wilson can be as good as Devonta Adams and Aaron Rogers can bounce back that's what we're hoping on here I did not have cold feet on Devonta Adams last year first year in Las Vegas first year in a new offense first year with Derek Carr I still felt good about drafting him as a number one fantasy receiver. Given what's going on with the quarterback change and the quarterback not being healthy right now, and the chance of the quarterback will get hurt again. We've seen that from Jimmy Garoppolo. I know that he had the one game last year with Jarrett Sidham where he went off and he had a monster outing. I'm starting to get a little cold feet about Devontae Adams in 2023, not being as efficient as he was. So for me to say Garrett Wilson over Devontae Adams,

some people would be shocked because look at what Devontae Adams has done for years. Garrett Wilson's only in his second season. I think there's a chance that Garrett Wilson can finish ahead of Devontae Adams, ahead of Amon Ross St. Brown, even in full PPR, and maybe even ahead of CeeDee Lamb. Call him a top six wide receiver. Now rank him as a top six wide receiver. Do it. Come on.

Well, look, I've seen him in some of our mocks, seen him go Garrett Wilson early in the second round, which is right around wide receiver five, six. But let me just give you one stat. Tell me what you think, Dave. This is piggybacking on what you said about the pass rate and you expect it to go down, but

in a much more extreme way. Zach Wilson, so first of all, Garrett Wilson actually had a higher yards per target with Zach Wilson than he did with the other quarterbacks. Just they threw so much more with the other quarterbacks. But the Jets were 5-4 in Zach Wilson's starts. They averaged 29 pass attempts per game. They were 2-6 in the other starts, and they averaged 46 pass attempts per game. They were 2-6 in the other starts,

and they averaged 46 pass attempts per game. We know how good their defense could be. It wouldn't shock me if they had the number one defense. Could they be one of the least pass-heavy teams in football? Does that concern you, Heath? Not about him being number one, but about Garrett Wilson just living up to a second round ADP or maybe an early third round. I don't think it is reasonable to expect them to be one

of the most run-heavy teams in football. I don't think we have any reason to think that they would go give what they gave to get Aaron Rodgers, and then they're going to function as an offense like the Falcons or Titans or Bears. That doesn't make any sense at all. I actually have them projected as a league average pass rate. I think league median last year was 571. I have them projected for 574 attempts. I'm not expecting the same high volume that we had last year. maybe i think it is reasonable to say that they are 10 in either direction like they could they could have a 530 pass attempt season that would be bad for garrett wilson and make it hard for him to be but if they do i think dave hit on something it's likely because aaron rodgers is so efficient that they just aren't having to run as many offensive plays

but they're still putting up huge numbers. All right. Well, that is a big take on Garrett Wilson. He'll be the number one wide receiver in PPR and lead all wide receivers in targets and catches. Okay, let's promote something real quick here, something big. You soccer fans, football fans are going to be really interested in this one. Saturday on CBS, one of the most celebrated soccer tournaments in the world is down to two clubs, Manchester City meets Inter

in the UEFA Champions League final. Our world-class team will be on the pitch with live coverage beginning Saturday at 1.30 Eastern on CBS. That's a big one. Let's bring up a tweet that has me. Remember all the confusion we were talking about? It started before the show. We're looking at one of Heath's tweets.

Could not figure out who he was talking about. Well, you couldn't. You got it, Dave? I figured it out. Well, it was very easy. Like if you just went to Pro Football Reference and clicked on the Browns or Dolphins or Chiefs from that year, you would see who their offensive coordinator was.

No, no, no. I didn't do that. I just thought about who it would be. It took Dave a while. It took Dave a little while. All right, Heath, tell us about this tweet here, and keep in mind our audio audience that cannot see it. Yeah, I was doing some research for our player outlooks, and there was a specific coach and his player usage that I wanted to look at, so I went to his coach page on Pro Football Reference. And I was shocked to see that the first four seasons that he had as an offensive coordinator came with three different teams.

And each of those seasons, his team ranked 22nd or worse in yards, ranked 20th or worse in points. Three of the four seasons, he was in charge of one of the worst offenses in football. And all four teams that really had a terrible win percentage. Like teams that were bad teams. He was on Browns for two years. They were terrible. Very next year, he gets a shot with the Dolphins. They were terrible.

Very next year, he gets a shot with the Chiefs. They were terrible. Then we go a little while, I think six years before he gets to be a head coach or an offensive coordinator again. Then he gets a fourth chance to be an offensive coordinator after three teams and four absolute failures. I don't think you could say it any other way, Dave. Is that fair? It's fair. Okay. Somehow gets a fourth job, which is, I think, remarkable in itself, and then parlays that chance into a head coaching job because he's such an offensive guru. Is it Kyle Shanahan? It is not Kyle Shanahan,

but I would like for the people who are watching, we could take like 60 seconds and they could guess. You could just keep throwing out random names. It is, I could give you a clue that would probably give it away. He's a current offensive coordinator? It is not a current offensive coordinator. That should be enough of a clue right there. Yep. It's not.

I'm just missing this. And just immediately, the very first guess, because O.J. Weber knows me, it is quite obviously Brian Dable. Why else would I bring it up, Adam? That's a good point. I should have thought about that. Last year was the third time in his nine years running an offense, and you can debate how much he was running the offense last year and how much it was Mike Kafka. The third time that he finished in the top half of the league in either points or yards as an offensive coordinator. I think that you make a good point about Dable.

Actually, he gets a lot of credit, but Kafka was the play caller last year. So, you know, I think that's probably, that's pretty important here. I mean, you know. The non-Trolley thing, I mean, first off, it wasn't entirely Trolley. I do think, off, it wasn't entirely trolley. I do think very few coaches get to have that much failure and get to try again.

That part is pretty remarkable and maybe should cause teams to be more patient. Or? Right. The other thing, Dave, I'm trying to be positive here. Okay. The other thing is that I think if you look at that history, most of those years, even when they were bad, they were in the top 10 teams in terms of rush attempts.

Brian Dable's offenses, even in Buffalo, in Cleveland, in Miami, in Kansas City, almost always top 10 in rush attempts and bottom 10 in pass attempts. But when you look at Buffalo, was it running back rush attempts or total rush attempts? It's all total rush attempts, right? But I do not think, based on that history, that we should expect. We've talked a lot about how much more will the Giants throw this year than they did last year. I'd be really surprised if it was a lot. Yeah, I did a ton of research on Darren Waller yesterday.

And came to the conclusion that I think I'm going to be out on him in part because of this exact thing. Dayball does have a track record of leaning on the run. And that actually ties into one of my bold predictions that I'm going to send you before the end of the show. Here's the other thing. And this is kind of a life lesson. I've taught my son this. Sometimes it's not about what you know it's who you know and brian dable proved his worth to bill belichick and then he proved his worth to nick saban and both those guys probably vouched for him on his way to becoming the new york giants head coach now that's not assuming that this is like a fake nepotism type thing, because after he did bottom out as an offensive coordinator, he rebuilt his whole career. And then he got tied to Josh Allen and he figured out a way to make Josh Allen a better quarterback on the field, whether it was through practice and improving his technique or anything else. He did that.

And now he's tasked with doing it with Daniel Jones. I think he's deserving of this chance. And I'm especially optimistic that he'll continue to be a good play caller or a good designer of offenses since he's not calling the plays in New York because of how the Giants did in their first year. I don't think he's a jabroni who just knows the right people. I think he actually proved that he can be good at coaching offensive football. So I think that you're missing a big part of this argument, is that his quarterbacks in those first four seasons as a coordinator were, in 2009, Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson. In 2010... So he had good quarterbacks the those first four seasons as a coordinator were in 2009, Brady Quinn and

Derek Anderson. In 2010... So we had good quarterbacks the first year. No. Colt McCoy and Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace. Didn't Jake Delhomme go to a Super Bowl? It was Matt Moore and Chad Henney. And then it was Matt Castle and Brady Quinn again in 2012.

We could ask Brady about him. This is a player's league. Next time I see Brady, I'll ask him about Brian Davis. Players are always going to make... I mean, when Peyton Manning, I can't remember all the things he said about Adam Gase, how great Adam Gase was. Aaron Rodgers, the people that Aaron Rodgers has...

Ben McAdoo. Oh, he's so great, all that. And Nathaniel Hackett. Right, I was about to say Hackett. His legendary quarterbacks can make you know a coordinator or a quarterbacks coach look good so it's a players league and josh allen made brian dable look good but the giants offense really overachieved last year i thought they were very creative they schemed guys open really well he did um and uh i think i don't know i don't know who's to credit i don't know who's to credit for that uh if it's him or it's kafka but anyway let's

move on let's talk about our news and notes after a quick break on Fantasy Football today. unexpected downtime, financial penalties, and keep you safe. Don't let avoidable damage cost you time and money. Click before you dig. Ensure your next project is safe. Visit OntarioOneCall.ca. It's free. It's easy.

It's the law. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. Okay. Did we actually say Daniel Jones' name in that segment, by the way? Did we hit the quota? Okay, good. Thank you, Heath. News and notes.

Brock Purdy, according to Kyle Shanahan, is on schedule, and his recovery could be ready sometime in training camp, and hopefully for week one. Deebo Samuel said he looked sluggish and bad on tape last year, and he vows to have a better year. An angry Debo Samuel, very motivated. Give me a round for Debo Samuel. 12-team, half PPR.

Three. Nope. I'd go later than that. I'd say five. Oh. Michael Thomas says he will be ready for the start of training camp. Give me a round for Michael Thomas, 12 teams, half PPR. Eight.

Eight or nine. Okay. Tampa Bay. He's so worth the risk in round eight or nine. So when you say that, do you mean if you think of Michael Thomas stays healthy that Chris Olave is not going to meet ADP? Maybe. Why can't they both meet ADP?

Why can't they both have great years? Well, they're quarterback for one. It kind of scares me a little bit. I think Derek Carr is good at getting one of those guys. He can get one of those guys to be great, but I bet they end up spreading the ball around. And again, what's going to happen when they get inside the five? He could get one of those guys to be great, but I bet they end up spreading the ball around. Again, what's going to happen when they get inside the five?

There will be a couple of occasions where Derek Carr is going to throw it, but I bet they go with two tight end formations, three if you include Taysom Hill. Thomas might not even be on the field. Olave almost certainly will not be on the field, if you can believe that. That's another offensive coordinator that's just going to have to have a massive shift in favor of passing if those two guys are both going to be really good. Okay.

But Michael Thomas doesn't have to be really good to be worth an eight-round pick. Right. And Olave, he's going to win you a couple of weeks. If not break out entirely, minimize Michael Thomas completely, and become a top- 12 type of fantasy receiver. That's in his profile.

He's that good. But Michael Thomas, we saw it at the beginning of last year. Certainly when he's scoring, I think all of his touchdowns were red zone touchdowns in the early going last year. He was still getting open. He still has good hands. He's healthy right now. No issues.

He's not missing any practices. Absolutely the type of player that you're targeting in round eight. Okay. Tampa Bay running back Rashad White said he expects a lot of targets. That would be wonderful. Jerry Jones has not ruled out re-signing Ezekiel Elliott. That would not be wonderful. Romeo Dobbs has been Jordan Love's favorite target during OTAs,

according to ESPN. So this is what I was talking about. Dobbs has been Jordan Love's favorite target during OTAs, according to ESPN. So this is what I was talking about. Dobbs and Christian Watson, they just did not get healthy at the same time, basically. They had only one game all year in which they both played more than half the snaps, and it was week one. So anyway, Heath, at what point would you start to worry about Christian Watson and favor Romeo Dobbs, not over Watson necessarily, but really close the gap between the two? Yeah, I don't think that's probably going to happen. I just, I get worried that we, I mean, I guess close the gap because I would lower Watson a little bit. I'm a little bit worried about all the reports we're getting of the guys Jordan Love is missing in OTAs because these types of practices, I don't really care about the positive reports. It's when the negative stuff's leaking out.

So yeah, I guess if we got to the preseason and people were still saying it looks like Dobbs is the number one, then I certainly wouldn't want to take Watson in the first four rounds. Okay. And back to the news and notes. A few more here. Let's go with, oh, Darren Waller item. Dan Duggan of The Athletic says it would be shocking if Darren Waller did not lead the Giants in targets if he stays healthy.

Everyone agree with that? Yes. Yes, but you could lead the Giants in targets with 100. Right. Last year, nobody had more than 71 targets among the receivers and tight ends in New York. So less than 100. Sam Howell and Jacoby Brissett

are competing for the starting job for Washington. Commander's defensive end Chase Young says he feels more explosive. And they could really, I think we said this last year, if Chase Young is right, they could have the best defensive line in football. It's loaded with first-round picks, really good players,

but Young is someone that they need. The Ravens now have five former first-round picks in their receiving room. All wide receivers, Laquan Treadwell, they just signed. So now it's him, Beckham, Nelson Aguilar, Rashad Bateman, and current first-round pick Zay Flowers. And Josh Allen is on the Madden cover. Rankings adjustment?

Good decision by Madden to choose somebody who led the league in NFL interceptions last year so that you can't be blamed if he has a bad year. Okay, I like that. Good take there. Let's get two more bold predictions from Heath. And which one would you like to go to next? Let's go with Pat Fryer-Muth finishing as tight end three with 900 yards receiving and seven touchdowns. I really thought he took a

step forward last year, 98 targets in just 16 games, and it got missed for the same reason that Deontay Johnson was such a bust. They just didn't throw any touchdown passes. One of the things that rookie quarterbacks struggle with the most in acclimating from college to the NFL is red zone passing. We've seen it with a majority of rookie quarterbacks, a 3%, 3.5%, sometimes even lower touchdown rate. Very, very often, almost always, that increases in the following year. We know from Friar Moose rookie year that he is very good in the red zone. I have kind of flipped on this a little bit. I was thinking that he might have a George Pickens problem, but I don't really have any reason when they both played on the same team with the same

quarterback and the same offensive coordinator last year to think that all of a sudden George Pickens is just going to get a bunch of targets and that's going to hurt Pat Fryermuth. If Pickens sees an increase in targets, it might hurt Deontay Johnson. I think more likely Pickens just doesn't see a big increase in targets. This is a statement on two things. One, I think Fryer moves undervalued because of his lack of touchdowns last year. Two, who's tight in three? That's one of my favorite fantasy debates right now.

I think you could make the case for so many guys. It's Hawkinson, according to, I think, ADP consensus rankings this early in the process. But yeah, I love that question. So your bold prediction is that Pat Friermuth finishes the year as tight end three with 900 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. I did the math. If he had caught seven touchdowns last year instead of two, he would have been the No. 5 tight end overall and No. 7 per game. So not quite No. 3, but not much worse than Mark Andrews, actually.

All right, Dave, your reaction to this? Pat Fryermuth, tight end three. Do you remember what the Steelers wanted to do in the slot at this time last year? Claypool? Claypool. They want somebody big in the slot, and there have been reports already this offseason and through OTAs that Fryermuth is getting a shot in that role.

Last year, when he lined up in the slot, he averaged 2.28 yards per route run. That was second best among tight ends behind, surprise, Travis Kelsey. If that works out for him, and if he sees just the littlest uptick in targets, he was already sixth among tight ends last year with 6.1 targets per game, he could get there. It really comes down to touchdowns, as it usually does with tight ends. And so if he can be a bigger factor in the red zone, and they use play action a little bit more, target him a little bit more, he

can get there. This is another player that's absolutely worth the cost of a pick. I have him ranked. I'm looking, I'm looking, I'm looking. It's low. I might be going too low. I think he's like in that round 10-11 range. I got a comment here. Super value.

Darnell Washington could bust this prediction. Forget that. I'm not feeling that at all. That's the rookie out of Georgia. He's going to bust a linebacker in the mouth blocking. He might end up being a tackle by the time his career is over. I have Friar Muth at 104th

overall. I have him at 82nd. I knew you'd be higher than him on me. I don't think you have to be that high on him. I think you can absolutely wait a little bit longer and pick up that good value. That potential good value. Here's a bold prediction. I actually

have it ranked that way. Fryer-Muth over Darren Waller. I could see that happening. I'm kind of jealous because I don't have it ranked that way. Maybe I will. If that's based on projections or what? He is projected, yes. Yeah, because I could see that.

But I think if you factor in upside, personally, I think Waller has a lot more upside because I do think he's the target leader. It seems like more people have hope that Daniel Jones is going to make a leap this year as a passer than Kenny Pickett. And that doesn't make any sense to me. That's not what I said, though, first of all. No, but it does seem that way, doesn't it? Yes, it does. I think people just are writing off Pickett. I agree with that. Yes, that sentiment. However, my argument's not based on that. It's based on targets. Unless Deontay Johnson just stops getting so many targets

because he's so bad with them. I think Fryer moves probably third on the team in targets. We've outlined it so many times. It's really hard to be a top five tight end if you're third on your team. Why would you think that Fryer moves is third on the team in targets? I think Deontay Johnson's going to be one.

I would say Pickens would be two. When we're talking about guys who have a chance to be number two, I think we should include the guy who was number two last year. Fryermuth had more targets than Pickens last year, right? Yes, not many. A second year tie, what? Not many more, but he did have, well, no, he did. Yeah, he had 14 more and he played an extra game.

So yes, he decidedly more i don't think we should just discount the possibility that he's number two i expect him to be i understand if you don't but it's not outright outlandish to think he would be he's as like he's certainly amongst the top six or seven tight ends in likelihood of being top two on his team and targets does it bug you at all that pickens had more touchdowns than Friermuth from Pickett last year? No. It's a significant number. Because the Steelers only scored touchdowns from 40 yards away last year.

They did not score passing touchdowns in the red zone, and Pickens is going to be much better at that than Friermuth. Okay. So what makes you think that that'll flip on its head? Because they had a rookie quarterback last year who has a year in the NFL, and that's one of the biggest leaps we see from first to second year quarterbacks is red zone passing. Okay.

I don't know if that's true. I mean, is that true? Right. It's like anecdotally true. In terms of touchdown rate, it's certainly true. Is there a bigger jump between that and yards per attempt? Right. It's the intermediate passing that usually gets unlocked for a quarterback to make a big jump yeah i'd put that ahead of red zone passing but red zone passing is probably the next best indicator someone said something kind of mean um i want to go back and say one thing that i do think

that when you're passing in the red zone, if you throw it into the end zone, those are almost always intermediate passes. Well, of course. We're taking that. You almost discount those types of throws. But a leap in intermediate passing would be a leap in red zone passing. Right. But I'm thinking, okay, fine. But the majority of those intermediate throws are going to be outside of the red zone for obvious reasons. So I want to read this comment here because I want people to be clear about what we're talking about. Phil says, only listening so I know who to AVOID, in all caps, you guys wrecked so many people last year with your bold predictions.

And this is my point. Don't listen to this and go, oh, I'm taking Pat Fryer as the third tight end. Listen to it and say, oh, he's gotyer muth as my third as the third tight end listen to it and say oh he's got this potential he's just made a great case for it he's good value okay like relax we're just having a little fun here with some bold predictions we're not ranking pat fryer muth third okay uh last one is about tua tongue of ilo oh wait there was another comment i wanted to read and it's something Is it that one? Maybe. No, it's this one. Adam, are you broadcasting from jail? I see the orange

shirt. Dave, would you like to tell everyone what this orange shirt is? It appears to be a Miami Hurricanes football shirt. You bought it for me. It's a great shirt. It's very soft. It fits me perfectly, but it says Big Cane 2 on the back, so I'm too embarrassed to wear it out in public.

Is it true that the last 20 years of being a Miami alum who was forced to be a Miami football fan is... Okay, I was able to mute Heath before he finished that question. I am a little bit tired of Heath insulting my teams. Okay, let's talk about Tua Tuckabai Lowe. Can I say one other thing? Just in response to that guy's comment.

Sure. Bold prediction from our magazine last year. Jalen Hurts will finish the year as the QB one. Oh, well, that was really it was QB two or three.

That was people. I think you'd be okay drafting Jalen Hurts is like, what were we taking him recommending him as a top four or five quarterback. Heath might have even had him higher than that. And Heath had the stones to say that he'd be QB1.

Okay, he finished QB2. How about this bold prediction from the magazine? Deontay Johnson will not finish as a top 20 wide receiver in any format. Yeah, good. Good stuff. All right, let's go to Tua. You don't have to read all the bold predictions. There were only two, as it turns out.

We only did two bold predictions, right? All right, Tua Tungabailoa plays 17 games and throws for 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns. Woo, number one QB, I'd say, if he does that. Generally, when you're looking at third-year quarterbacks who had elite pedigree and were superstars in college, what I like to do is look at the best five-game sample from their second year and then project that moving forward. If you remember earlier in the week, we talked about that with Trevor Lawrence and his best five-game sample projected for 4,900 yards.

Two had a five-game sample where he was on pace for 5,314 yards and 41 passing touchdowns. I hate projecting injuries. I hate just assuming that he's going to get another concussion and not be able to play football anymore. This is a bold prediction show. If he stays healthy and plays 17 games with Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddell, he should absolutely be expected to be better than Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert, probably Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields as well. If he plays 17 games with those two wide receivers, he's in the Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts tier.

You have him ranked higher than I do, and we both have him ranked higher than Jamie does. We all have him as higher than I do, and we both have him ranked higher than Jamie does. And we all have him as a top 12 quarterback. His upside has to carry him as one of the first 12 quarterbacks taken off the board. But I don't think anybody who drafts any other quarterback in a fantasy league would be interested in benching Mike White. So my question to you would be, if there was a world where Tua didn't play at all, what kind of numbers would you give Mike White in this offense?

It doesn't matter. There will probably be some weeks where it is Mike White under center, like it or not. And so do you do a, what kind of numbers you have for Mike White and B, if you draft Tua, should it be a quasi requirement to have Mike White on your bench just to lock in this Dolphins passing game?

I will only justify the Mike White discussion in a super flex or two quarterback league because in a one quarterback league, I think it's irrelevant. I don't think there's any chance you are getting stuck starting Mike White. I think you're either going to draft a second quarterback if that's the kind of league you're in and you'll start that guy, or like most leagues, there will be seven guys better than Mike White on the waiver wire whenever Tua goes down. In a two-quarterback league, I think that's a legitimate concern, and just like Anthony Richardson, I would want to rank Tua lower in a league where I have to start two quarterbacks because of his risk and because I might get stuck, as Dave just said, starting Mike White.

Still, if you told me that Mike White is playing in this Dolphins offense with Tyree Kill and Jalen Waddell, I think against the right matchup, he's close to a top 12 quarterback. I agree. By the way, Heath, that was a very cute comparison you did there with what I said about Trevor Lawrence, but Tua's actually going into his fourth year, not his third year. So you were using his third year breakout.

I'm not crazy, right? Yeah, no. 2020, he played 10 games. 2021, 13 games. Last year, he played 13 games. That's true. But yeah, I mean, Tua, if you take out just take out the Cincinnati game. Remember, he got hurt on Thursday night, played 39% of the snaps.

He would have been the number five quarterback per game in six-point-per-passing touchdown leagues, number four in four-point-per-passing touchdown leagues. I think I'd like to see him run a little bit more. I mean, he ran almost six yards per game or something like that. So he might outthrow Trevor Lawrence, but he might have 250 fewer rushing yards, something like that, based on 17 games.

So I'd like to see him run a little bit more. He did run a little bit more in his first two seasons. Yeah, and my biggest thing is, for one-quarter rec leagues, not for two or super flex, we already talked about that, but for one-quarter rec leagues, I just don't think that the injury risk matters all that much. If you're able to draft him as a low-end starting quarterback

and you have the upside of a top five guy, let's say, and the downside is that you're streaming somebody else that's going to produce a low-end starting quarterback, draft Tua. Yeah. All right, let's take a break. When we come back, Dave,

you want to read your bold predictions on the air and get just a reaction on the bold-o-meter? No. I've emailed you my bold predictions. Okay. I want you to react. You should react to them without saying what they are. Okay.

Okay. And then if I don't have enough that are bold, if you just go, if you read them and you go, and these are just okay, I'll go back to the drawing board. No, that's okay. He came with the heat today.

Okay, okay. We'll be right back with my reaction to Dave's bold predictions, plus your emails, fantasyfootballatcbsi.com, including an email about a fantasy league that gives points to punters. We'll be right back. Okay, Dave has emailed me his bold predictions.

He wants to know if they're bold enough. Okay, number one. Number two. Yeah. Number three. No, not that bold. Okay. this is great really number four this is really good stuff guys uh no that's no no uh number five kind of number six yes okay number like one number seven yes for Yes, for sure, number seven.

How many did Dave send? And number eight. I think that's pretty bold, but it's really just one player. Of course, a Giants one. No, that's just one player that you're talking about, but that's a pretty bold prediction on Darren Waller, I guess. Okay, emails, fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. From Matt. Where's he from matt is from las vegas nevada okay matt says dear cameron brett logan and rego berto

i don't know no how do i not know this? Are those punters? Oh, probably. Okay, so this is about punters. Please read this email with Heath specifically on the air. Okay. My most important and longest running league, year 15, added a punter position six years ago. Yes, a punter. Long story short, the commissioner,

my best friend and a savvy fantasy player himself, is a very democratic commissioner and sends out an email every offseason asking for rule changes. One of the other teams suggested adding a punter, and the commish added it to the voting, and it passed the majority. So after two years with the punter, I did some quick math, and I see that the punter adds 2.25 points per game to your score. Realizing the minimal point score, 2.25 points per game, I dropped and do not roster a punter ever. Instead, I carry the extra roster spot for a breakout young running back or wide receiver.

So my question is, is it worth giving up the 2.25 points per game for an extra roster spot? I wish I knew what your average score is and the rest of the scoring options, because I have leagues where the average score is 75 points, and I have leagues where the average score is 200 points. Those are usually non-PPR versus PPR leagues. Well, that and lots of other things. You could start super flex and all the other possible positions you could have. In a 200-point average score, I think it's absolutely worth giving up the two points. In the 75, I wouldn't.

But I'd say in a vacuum, I wouldn't hate this idea specifically week one, and I would hate it more as the season went on. I would certainly be starting a playoff, a punter down the stretch if I was fighting for the, tight game, and seeing that the two-ish points could give me a win or a loss, I dropped my last rostered player, and I started punter Pat O'Donnell for the Bears. And Miami Hurricanes. Yes. After my opponent's kicker kicked a couple field goals, my victory was out of reach until Pat freaking O'Donnell threw a touchdown on a fake punt. When I won with a fake touchdown pass from a punter that I never rostered,

the ire of my league mates was my single best fantasy experience. Oh, he didn't go to Miami. Why did I think he went to Miami? No, he did go. Yes, he did go to Miami. What the hell am I talking about? Come on. He went to Miami.

Big cane? Come on now. All right, thank you, Matt. Great email. That's a really funny story. That's awesome. All right, this is from Phillip. Where's Phillip from?

Phillip is from... Yeah, wait a second. That's awesome. This is from Phillip. Where's Phillip from? Phillip is from Montgomery, Alabama. Somebody gave Heath control where he could now put comments up. It used to be just me and Schaefer. Of course, someone says big-brained Heath. I don't know what that's

for. This is an easy way for you to get your comment read on the live stream. It's just compliment Heath. Good stuff. Good stuff. Anyway, Phillip from Montgomery, Alabama made a huge trade and wants to know your thoughts. Also, gosh, Heath, you didn't read this on the show, did you? Yesterday? I did not.

PPR, Superflex, Dynasty start three wide receivers and three flex and, of course, the Superflex. Okay. He got Justin Jefferson. He gave away. Hey. He gave away Kenny Pickett, a mid super flex. Kenny Pickett, a mid to late 2024 first round pick,

a mid to late 2025 first round pick, a mid to late 2025 second-round pick. And Khalil Herbert for Jefferson. Fantastic. Well, how does he know that they're mid-to-late? I was going to say, it's a little presumptuous. But, yeah. To say mid-to-late.

But two first-round picks, a second-round pick. Kenny Pickett in a Superflex League. And Khalil Herbert for Justin Jefferson. That's a lot. Great. It's a lot, but it's still not enough. I'dil Herbert for Justin Jefferson. That's a lot. Great. It's a lot, but it's still not enough. I'd rather have Jefferson.

Okay. Hey, Hey, all right. From Kevin. I picked up an orphan team and a 12 team super flex dynasty league, full PPR. Uh,

the team is not what I feel is a contender. I'd like to get what I can for Aaron Rogers while he's still worth something. I have one league made who is a contender and wants Aaron Rodgers. Should I try to acquire what would probably be a late first round pick in 2024 or see about getting more pieces?

Rodgers. I think if you can get the late first. Again, you don't know if it's going to be a late first. You take it. Yep. Okay. 100%. And I would not worry about getting another quarterback

because if you're not really a contender this year, you don't want some quarterback actually winning four games for you, and then you don't have a – Right, then you're out of the Williams-May derby, theoretically. Frank from Tacoma says, Hey, Steve, Tony, Bruce, and Clint. Marvel. Steve? Oh, Bruce, and Clint. Marvel. Who's Clint?

Hawkeye? Oh. I may get that wrong and the chat's going to make fun of me, but I think so. Who's Clint's chat? We got Steve. Steve's Captain America, right? Tony is... Tony Stark, Bruce Banner,

and then there's Clint. Come on, chat. You can do this. I wanted to get some input for a side league I was wanting to start this season. I want to do a pretty run-of-the-mill 12-team PPR league, but each team gets a superpower. I was just answering your question while you were talking.

Okay, Heath is right. It was displayed in our chat. I want to do a pretty run-of-the-mill 12-team PPR league talking. Okay, Heath is right, and it was displayed in our chat. I want to do a pretty run-of-the-mill 12-team PPR league, but each team gets a superpower and maybe a weakness as well. For example, I want to come up with things like being able to swap out a player after games have been played for their team or the opposing team. Okay. Or start each week with 15 points or double PPR, things like that. Managers would draft these abilities.

Wow. Managers would draft these abilities pre-draft to include powers for drafting as well. Basically want to create a balance sheet of abilities for managers to choose from and draft according to these string suits. Is that a word? I've never heard of that. Or string cheese. What sounds like word? I've never heard of that. Or string cheese. What sounds like fun? Give me some ideas.

What sounds like fun is having a fantasy league that doesn't come up with wackadoodle ideas. Oh, Dave. Oh, gosh. I'm okay, Boomer. A superpower that only I can use and the rest of my league can't. That's why it's a superpower.

If everybody had it, it wouldn't be a superpower. I got to keep track of everybody getting a chance to do triple PPR or start an extra player or have, you know, you know, supervision or something like that or changing players after the fact. It sounds ridiculous. Yes. Yes. It's too much to keep track of. I think it's lots of fun. Okay.

I wouldn't do it as a commissioner because Dave's right. It does sound like a lot of work and I don't like to do that. Hell yeah. But if the commissioner wants to do that, his league mates should be thankful. Assuming they have other leagues.

I wouldn't want that to be my only league. But for a fun league? Sure. Get off Dave's lawn. What if the league agreed to one superpower and each manager could use the superpower

once all season long? Did we establish any of the superpowers? Double PBR is hilarious. Did Jeff definitely change one player after the game? That's the superpower. You get to a player that gets off to a bad start before his game gets to the fourth quarter. You can pull him out and you get to start somebody who hasn't yet played.

I like remove one player from the opponent's lineup. It has to be before the game start. I think what if you get to do that? If you won the week before? Oh, yeah before oh yeah it's like that's your defense like you you're choosing either offensive or defensive powers the defensive powers nerf the other team the offensive powers are superpowers for you what else could we do uh yeah you could. How about your flex spot is whichever player on your bench does the best that week. There should be something with...

So it's like a best ball in the flex. With your kicking. Like the super foot, like an iron boot, and you get a certain five times kicker points that week. What if your flex is a super flex and you're the only one

who has that superpower? I like that because that's a super. I like it. It's another good one to the iron boot the super flex. These are fun. Take away the player of one of your opponent's players points, right? That's a little bit of defense. Well, it's yeah.

No, but you're stealing from the other player. You're just well, I don't know if you're taking the points. He gets to keep them too, or she. I like that. I want something for night games where you get super points if your player's playing at night because you have night vision.

Night vision! Like some night vision goggles. Yes. Oh, this is great. This is email of the year. Great job. We all love it. Unanimous here at Fantasy Football today.

Thank you, Frank. All right. We'll talk about Dave's bowl predictions tomorrow. Check out Fantasy Football today in five for two more bowl predictions from Heath. I'm Adam with Dave and Heath and Thomas. And we'll talk to you tomorrow on FFT.