Fantasy Football Today - Heath's Bold Predictions and a Big Announcement (06/01 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 1, 2022

Want some FFT stuff? You can buy it here! https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20 We start the show with our reaction to Najee Harris weighing 244 pounds (2:00), Jamey stealing an Aizer Stat (3:30) and Heath giving a bold take on Jalen Hurts (5:45). Hurts has huge upside, but can he be the only QB on your roster? Then we have a major, major programming announcement to make (12:40)! ... News and notes (21:00) on Trey Lance among others and then it's back to Heath's bold predictions. Which backfield will have two Top 24 RBs (24:40)? Which veteran WR will have the best season of his career (29:30)? ... Heath makes a shocking bold call on a rookie WR (33:15) and then kind of a downer bold prediction on Kyle Pitts (36:30). We also give our thoughts on the Ozark finale (49:30) at the very end of the episode. Lots of spoilers! ... Your emails at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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He's just going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. It is Wednesday. It is June 1st. Welcome to June, everybody. Today on the show, Heath gives us five bold predictions. Jamie steals an Azor stat. We give our thoughts on the Ozark finale. We're going to do that at the very, very end of the show. There will be no spoilers. I'll tell you when it's happening.

If you haven't seen it, don't worry. And also, we have a major, major programming announcement. We're going to do that in about 10 minutes. You don't want to miss it. You got to hear it. Major announcement. Anyway, Heath, you ready to be bold today? And also, I'm going to tell Jamie what you said about him behind his back yesterday,

just letting you know. I don't remember what I said about Jamie, so now I'm a little nervous. But, no, I'm very excited. This is my favorite show of the year. I think we should do a bold prediction show every single week of the regular season. There is nothing better. I wrote this in the article. There's nothing better as a fantasy analyst than to get asked for bold predictions because it's completely fun and there's no accountability.

Nobody expects you to be right. I agree. I love it. And I get to do my bold predictions on Friday because we needed an extra episode. So Schrager was like, I guess Azar can do it. So yeah,

I love, I'm looking forward to giving bold predictions because they are just fun. Jamie, by the way, Heath said that his quarterback bold prediction was bolder than yours. Jamie, by the way, Heath said that his quarterback bowl prediction was bolder than yours. Oh, well, to be fair, I knew which one he was going to use.

So that took that one off the table. Right. So yesterday, Russell Wilson, QB1, that was Jamie's. Today, we'll find out who Heath says. I have a few segments first. Let's start with this one. Hilarious pun here.

Worth the weight? W-E-I-G-H-T. Najee Harris weighs 244 pounds. I don't like that. Yeah, but he says it's only four pounds heavier than he was last year. He said, quote, brah, I weighed 240 last year. Reporters really don't be knowing nothing. Just be tweeting bleep.

I still don't like it. I don't really really like it either 244 is a lot of pounds that's like two of me almost not quite yeah i think 244 is a more successful running back weight than 122 anyway i'm not but um yeah i don't i just don't think there's a few guys who if they they gained weight, we might think it was a good thing. But Najee Harris is not one of them. And mostly it's not viewed as a positive. But it is only four pounds, according to Najee Harris, brah. Our NFL on CBS Twitter account said that he's now heavier than when Jerome Bettis arrived to Pittsburgh in 1996. But he's not heavier than Derrick Henry. No.

So. To be clear, I did not move Najee Harris at all based on this report. I just don't like him. Well, because he's heavier, it's hard to move him. Yeah. What about you, Jamie? Is this going to change your rankings of Najee? Probably not. I just don't like him. Yeah. I about you, Jamie? Is this going to change your rankings of Najee? Probably not,

but I just don't, I just don't like it. Yeah. I just don't like it. Okay, next segment. Jamie steals an Azor stat. Well, that's just the Jamie stat.

Because I said on yesterday's show we were talking about Aaron Jones. I mentioned how many catches he had in one game without Devontae Adams last year.

I think it was seven catches. And I said, this always happens. I don't have the exact numbers. I got to look into that. And you looked into that and you tweeted it. You beat me to it. So congratulations. I didn't steal it.

You kind of stole it. You stole my idea. No. You're. No. I was going to do. All right. Well, it was really good, though.

You want to reveal it? I don't remember exactly. Okay, I have it. Five catches over the eight. So Adams in the last three years has missed. It's basically seven and a half games because in week two of the 2020 season, he left after halftime of that game. But Aaron Jones had a big spike in receptions.

So it's basically like eight games that he didn't finish the whole game or didn't make it past halftime over the last three seasons. My bold prediction was that Aaron Jones would lead the Packers in receptions. And so if you take that over 17 games, that's 85 catches if he hits the average. I don't think he's going to do that, but that's kind of what we were talking about, that he has a chance to maybe be among the league leaders in receptions at the position. And so there's a pretty clear path to it. He's got four total touchdowns in those eight games.

He's averaged, I think it was 67 yards or 57 yards in those eight games. So they use him quite a bit as a receiver whenever Adams has not been there. That is one of my favorite Azers stats ever. This is why Jamie's an award-winning analyst. It's like this and late or great at tight end, things like this that he comes up with out of nowhere. Really, really fantastic. I had him with five touchdowns, by the way.

So the eight games, the 17-game pace for those eight games without Devontae Adams over the last three seasons, 85 catches, 969 yards, 11 touchdowns on 117 targets. That's Aaron Jones in seven and a half games without Devontae Adams. Where do you have Jones now on PPR, Jamie? Right around like 16th or 17th overall, eighth or ninth running back off the work.

I've got him eighth, so yeah, we're in the same place. Okay, here's another segment called Heath also has a stat to share. Yes, this is a rebuttal for the people who say, well, yeah, Josh Allen and Kyler Murray got a lot better with Stephon Diggs and DeAndre Hopkins, but Jalen Hurts isn't near as good a passer as those guys are.

Before those guys, Josh Allen and Kyler Murray were essentially worse in almost every statistic that measures passing efficiency. Yards per attempt hurts us at 7.3 for the first two years in his career or first 19 starts. Allen, 6.6. Murray, 6.6. He's better in adjusted net yards per attempt, the same or better in touchdown rate and interception rate.

Murray's passer rating was slightly higher because he completed a lot of very short area passing early in his career. But Hurts, every bit as good as Murray and Allen before they got their star number one wide receiver. So why don't we jump into that bold prediction and then we'll do our major programming announcement. The bold prediction is that Jalen Hur hertz will be qb1 this year and uh by the way i just want to promote

one thing real quick we have a merchandise store for you we have a promo code if you want to get uh t-shirts mugs sweatpants laser engraved pint glasses hats water bottles i got the long sleeve t-shirt it's awesome uh schrager you're gonna see him in a little bit. He's wearing an FFT shirt today. I think Heath has the sweatpants. I got the link to the CBS store in the episode description. And if you want to use the promo code FANTASYFOOTBALL20, you're going to get 20% off your order. And that's just for our podcast listeners.

FANTASYFOOTBALL20 in the CBS store if you want some FFT merchandise. It's really cool stuff. And you get to show your support for our podcast and tell your friends basically how you beat them every year. Just rub it in their faces. So again, the promo code is FantasyFootball20, and the link is in the episode description. All right, so Jalen Hurts, QB1, and I'll remind everybody that in the first seven games of the season,

he was QB2 and four point per passing touchdown leagues, QB three per game. And in six point, he was QB five, QB six per game. And then he, they just stopped throwing. They became super run heavy, but he's been, he's been awesome when they had the opportunity to throw the ball. So go ahead, Heath, take the, you're at the floor is yours. Yeah. Going back to Alan and Murray, Alan, the year after he acquired Stefan Diggs through for 1500 more yards and 17 more touchdowns than he did the year before. That probably won't happen.

But Murray threw for an extra 250 yards and six touchdowns. It was about three and a half more fantasy points per game year over year just in passing stats for Kyler Murray when he added DeAndre Hopkins. If you add three and a half fantasy points per game to Jalen Hurts last year, that makes him QB three last year. So I do, and that's the lower of the two improvements. I just think it's hard to overestimate the impact that A.J. Brown could have on Hurts as a passer. And he already has an enormous floor and ceiling because

of what he does as a rusher. I don't know that anybody besides Lamar Jackson has more rushing upside than Jalen Hurts this year. Jamie, is there anything? I don't know. Look, it's a bold prediction, so I know we're not going to rank him number one. Although, Heath, you have him where? You have Hurts? Five, I think, right now.

Yeah. Is there any reason why he can't be number one? You can definitely make the case, right, Jamie? You have to. I mean, I have him six, so I'm not far behind Heath. And probably the one quarterback that we differ on is I have Russell Wilson ahead of him. So, you know, I think if you take Russ out, then he's right there. The only concern I have is which Eagles offense are we going to see?

Are we going to see the Eagles offense at the beginning of the season when they allowed Jalen Hurts to throw and they allowed this passing game to kind of dictate what they did? Or are we going to see the run-heavy approach that we saw in the second half that allowed them to be a playoff contender? And so I think you're going to see probably a mix. It's probably going to come down to the touchdowns, you know, for Hurts, what they do in the red zone. He's got all the tools.

He's a running quarterback. They added weapons. He's proven that he can, you know, be successful throwing the ball from a fantasy perspective, clearly not from a team perspective based on how their season went last year. But, I mean, the Eagles have done everything right this offseason to build around him. The only question would be is that, know if he starts off struggling and i know it's he's favorite guy of all time but if he starts off struggling do they bench him and you know the the the rumblings in philadelphia about is he a franchise guy is he the guy you know that they should be focused on we know they have the capital in 2023 to get another quarterback.

And so if things start to go south early and he's the one that's the reason why, that could be a problem. But I think you just got to buy into the upside. There's so many fallback options at that position that you should always be looking to swing for the fences. And he's the guy that can hit a home run based on everything in front of him. Mm-hmm. Last year, I don't want to speak for everyone,

but I think last year, at least some of us felt like you could draft Jalen Hurts as a number one starter, but he probably wasn't one of the guys that should be your only quarterback. He wasn't like a Dak Prescott or something. So maybe you wanted to draft a backup with him. You know what my bold prediction was last year? What's that?

One of my three. I went back and looked to see what I wrote. Jalen Hurts will be a top five quarterback. I think it was. Well, do you feel like you got that right? No, I didn't. Well, you did for half the season. No, that was the DeAndre.

Because I was looking back and looking, might as well. And like DeAndre Swift, I didn't get right. I am as a top five running back. But he was that for the first six weeks of the season, so I got my victory laps before he got hurt. No, I think... Hurts was early.

I think you, you know, obviously you were on to something with your bold predictions, even if they didn't exactly come true. But anyway, do you feel like, based on what Jamie just said, with maybe he's the only, you know, he's probably the only top 12 quarterback that has any chance of losing his job,

but that's not exactly what Jamie said, but he was laying out the case. Do you think Jalen Hurts can be the only quarterback you draft? I'm fine with him as the only quarterback I draft, as long as we're not in one of those leagues where everybody's drafting two and some teams are drafting three and there's just nobody on the waiver wire.

Okay. Okay, another thing that I wanted to bring up was Yak, yards after catch. If you look at the teams that led the NFL in YAC last year, Chiefs, Bucks, Bengals, Packers, Chargers, Raiders, Cardinals, Cowboys, 49ers, we know their offense. A lot of that is just pass attempts, right? But the best passing teams are up there leading the the league in yak. And A.J. Brown, in two of his three seasons, if you look at players who have had

50 or more catches, in two of his three seasons, he's been number one in yak per catch. So, that's pretty crazy. He's got that ability. All right. We got a major programming announcement here.

Shagger, what's up what's up everybody big announcement on my end this is my last week with cbs and with fantasy football today it's been an amazing three years and adam i know we wanted to chat through some of my favorite memories but the number one thing has been interacting with all of our fans, all of our FFT family, whether it's ask FFT on Twitter or draft a thon raising thousands of dollars for St. Jude. It's been an amazing three years here, but yeah,

you want to talk some memories? I'd love to, but yeah, before we do that, I mean, this is crazy. I mean, this is Ben Schrager's last show.

He's basically his last day. He's moving tomorrow. He'll, he'll tell you all about it. I went from interviewing him in a Starbucks in New York City to him being my boss two years later. I've watched him grow into a leader. He became a boss at a very young age at a major company. So it's really impressive. He has helped our show so much. We've grown so much in the... How long you been here? Three years? Three, yeah.

In the three years he's been here. I mean, we weren't even doing YouTube. He's, I don't know, he's grown our social media. He brought us to the 21st century, and he's been incredibly easy to work with. Never an argument. Unbelievable hire. I didn't hire him. I just helped interview him, so I wasn't giving myself credit. Unbelievable hire. We're going to miss him.

He just added hiring. We're going to miss him so much, and thank you for everything you've done, man. Well, it's been amazing working with you adam and everyone on the team and you've been all so easy to work with and everyone's been willing to do ask fft and interact with the fans and everything and i know that's going to continue and i think we have strong plans for the rest of this season and years to come but i mean thinking back to my time my number one memory is probably fantasy football yesterday not even Yesterday. The week we did during COVID. Those are really fun. So that was what we were...

What did we do? We did. Who did I get roasted for? I forgot. Was that what we were... I had my top five that I just got roasted. We were doing our top five, like, okay, yeah. It was like greatest players of the... Oh, it was Frank Gore! It was Frank Gore. It might have been Frank Gore. He was.

I mean, you. I think I talked to Schrager. I got an email from somebody in the New York office. And so we've got this kid who plays college baseball at Rice and runs a fantasy football Twitter account. And he was wanting to know if he could talk to one of you about the industry. And so I talked to him on a phone call. Sheesh, that was three and a half years ago three and a half years ago um but my favorite schrager main memory is probably uh beers with gardner minshu um in winwood we really did just

drink beers with gardner minshu and no one else was there and Peter King and Peter King that would be a pretty good memory yeah that'd be a fun one um yeah fantasy football yesterday was great we you did a great job during during the pandemic there was nothing going on we had to come up with a lot of programming and oh this yeah this is my favorite Super Bowl memory was creating gifts like this especially this, especially this one. And we'll just let this play, and everyone who's not viewing on YouTube, you should probably watch YouTube right now.

My favorite Shagger moment was that he would make me set up all these mock drafts and then would decline taking part in all the mock drafts because he had all these mysterious meetings. Oh, yeah, Ben's been missing. So Ben's always in a meeting. So anyway, Ben, what are your future plans? So I'm moving to Austin, Texas at the end of this week and going to work for WinReality,

which is a virtual reality baseball training company. So not podcast, not fantasy, but it's going to be a fun new challenge, get back to my baseball roots and do some virtual reality baseball training for kids college players pro players so should be a really fun experience but nothing beats the fft crew you you've been awesome and i thank you and i'm honestly i'm so not happy about this because so i want to go back to the virtual reality thing as well i'm assuming that like to make this fun maybe i'm just like giving you guys printing money that like to make this fun maybe i'm just like giving

you guys printing money for you to make this fun that there will be like avat the pictures will be like avatars of you'll be facing a picture and it won't just be like a pitching a virtual pitching machine do you know how much fun it would be if we could get azure as one of the avatars and you could just sit there and take azure deep that would be fantastic oh my i mean what are we putting him at like 73 miles an hour like no chance no no chance how about how about uh if you want to practice beating a batter how about he's the batter how about a pitcher he's the batter azer bats it's the new uh azer bats we'll figure out what that is did you take offense to me saying no way you'd break 60 did i yeah? Yeah. No, I didn't take offense, but I think I could break 60.

I think I could break 60. Actually, from a male, I don't know. Where can I do this? It might be 60 out of your hand. I don't think it'd be 60 by the time Cross don't play. Yeah, that's what I'm thinking. How far away are you standing? 10 feet? I don't know. 15?

I watched last week a 10-year-old throw a perfect game on 68 pitches and he throws between 65 and 70. Do you think you could be better than a 10-year-old? Because I can't.

No, I can't throw that fast, I don't think. Do you think you could hit that yeah i think yeah i could hit that oh what was he throwing curveballs or just fast he has four pitches in his arsenal from what i was told no chance i could hit i could change up in a curve shut up if i could hit it no he's 10 years old i i will first off he's taller than you i could hit a 10 year old he's taller than you uh I could hit a 10-year-old. He's taller than you. He's probably throwing from what? 54?

Or closer? He was throwing from 48 feet away. 60 miles an hour from 48 feet. There's no chance. There's a touch. Okay, but I think I could throw a 60 from 48 feet away. I think I could. Anyway, this is about Ben.

Ben, thank you. Ben loves talking baseball. Ben, you're the man. How hard could you throw, Schrager? Got up to 87, but I was much better at 81 throwing underhand. Yeah. Yeah. I could throw.

I can't throw underhand. Like sidearm, submarine? Yeah, drop it down. Yeah. I could probably play 41. Dan Quisenberry. All right, guys. We're going to take a break here.

When we come back, Schrager will be here until just about the end of the show. He will not be here for the Ozark recap. But we'll have more of Heath's... He's not going to find out about Jonah turning into a vampire? No, he actually turns into... It's werewolf versus vampire they fight at the end. We will have more of Heath's bold predictions,

including two Chiefs running backs, what they're going to do. A wide receiver, a 29-year-old wide receiver, who's going to have his best season yet, and a bold prediction on Kyle Pitts. We'll be right back on Fantasy Football today. What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend that powers your scale

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All right. Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. All right. We are dealing with our feelings of abandonment here as we welcome you back to the show. And we've got our news and notes. You really screwed Heath over. You should have not had his bold predictions on the show that Ben leaves. You should have done it on the show that you leave

so that nobody's going to remember your bold predictions. But Ben will be gone by then. Yeah, he should have made this your day. That seems wrong. I mean, that would be let down to Schrager since he made the schedule. But you're overshadowing Heath. For this week.

Yeah. That's okay. I'm hurt. My favorite show of the year, and you ruined it. Yes. Let it be known that Heath's favorite show of the year was the one that Schrager left. It was Ben's last day.

All right, injuries news and notes. Rashad Penny's back at practice after missing time with a hamstring injury. Deontay Johnson reported to voluntary OTAs, which was nice to see. Chase Claypool has been working at multiple positions in an effort to be more versatile, according to The Athletic. Aaron Donald hasn't ruled out retirement. They still haven't worked out his contract, and Aaron Donald said he'd be fine,

but he wants another Super Bowl, but he'd be fine leaving. I don't believe you. I don't believe you. Green Bay hoping to have left tackle David Bakhtiari back for training camp. He missed almost all of last season. He played only one game after an injury late in the 2020 season.

So Packers, that's a big deal. I mean, this guy was a great left tackle. The Bucs, looks like they're not going to have Ndamukong Su, but they signed defensive tackle Akeem Hicks to a one-year deal. If you just want to look at who was the better run defender last year, according to Pro Football Focus, Akeem Hicks was significantly better than Ndamukong Su, but Hicks has had trouble staying healthy.

He's played five, 15, and nine games in his last three seasons. We know that Bucs run defense is ridiculous when they're healthy, and they have Akeem Hicks to replace Ndamukong Suh now. Charges against Jerry Judy were dismissed, and I don't remember if I mentioned this when I saw it last week, I think.

I don't think I did. But pretty big deal. Trey Lance played with a chip bone in his finger for the entire 2021 season. He said that he had to learn how to throw the ball differently. I'm sorry if we're repeating this, but this is a pretty big story because he wasn't a great passer last year, but had a broken finger for the entire year, Jamie. So, do you think Trey Lance could be the only quarterback

that you drafted, or do you think you'd have to pair him with someone? I mean, it's hard to say today that he would be the only quarterback you would draft because Jimmy Garoppolo is still there. If Garoppolo is not there, then yes, he would be the only quarterback I would draft. But as Heath said, you have to know your league.

So if everybody's drafting multiple quarterbacks, then you should take two. But if you have a small bench and you're wasting it on a quarterback, then you shouldn't have to worry about that. Which finger did he break? His throwing hand finger. It was on his throwing hand? it was on his throwing hand was it this one uh by the way jamie can you can you attest to this comment you stop it eat could you uh back up this comment the 10 year old probably has a deeper voice than

adam according to one of our youtubers when i I congratulated him after the game, he said, thank you. And he wasn't using any sound effects. He is now, along with, this is my older son's team, by the way, who's 10. But he is now playing with the 12-year-old team that can be eligible for the Little League World Series. His name is Junior Cordero. If there's a team from Boca that makes it, just remember his name. Okay.

And remember these other four bold predictions from Heath Cummings. Here we go, Heath. Your Chiefs backfield bold prediction. Clyde Edwards-Hilaire and Ronald Jones will both finish as top 24 running backs on a per-game basis. Okay.

Clyde has not finished top 24 per game in either of his first two seasons, but this will be the year along with Ronald Jones. And I think Ronald Jones actually did, maybe in 2020 somehow, finish. Oh, I'm sure he did. I'm sure he did, because he was incredible when Fournette was out which was

like i actually had in 2020 that clyde edwards c lair was rb 23 and ronald jones was rb 24 in full ppr what a terrible year for running backs right um but like i think it maybe gets overlooked just how much chiefs running backs did last year. They had 1,393 rushing yards, 793 receiving yards, 87 catches and 17 touchdowns. Now it was chopped up against amongst multiple guys, but if you just chop that up amongst Jones and Clyde Edwards, that's enough production to get them close. I do think there's a couple of reasons that things might be a little bit

better for the running back group this year than it was in the past. And a lot of that's just the Tyree kill is not going to be there he had I think 230 rushing yards over the past two seasons and two rushing touchdowns he also had a lot of receiving touchdowns on little crazy little plays in the inside the five yard line that Andy Reid likes to do I think Meikle Hardman will take some of that work but I do think there will be more running back opportunities inside the 10 yard line and then i i really am hopeful this is i've not seen anything that suggests this this is a little bit of a hope and a prayer but we're just going to use clyde outside the tackles and in the passing game as it looked like he should be used when he came into the nfl and then ronald jones

when he just goes forward and has good blocking is is a very good runner between the tackles. I think he could be excellent in short yardage, maybe approach double-digit touchdowns while Clyde catches 60 passes. What do you think, Jamie? It's certainly possible. But how much of that will take away? Because you're giving touchdowns away from Mahomes at this point. So how many touchdowns does that ruin some pass catchers there in Kansas City, specifically Mahomes and probably Kelsey,

if those red zone chances go to the running backs? And so can they have – can this offense sustain – because I'm hoping at least one of the receivers, clearly Juju being the one, one of them emerges as a top 24, if not higher, fantasy option. Can this offense – and probably the answer is yes, but can this offense sustain a top or carry a top three quarterback, top two tight end, top 20 receiver, and two top 24 running backs?

Be interested to find out. Probably only if Edwards, Lair, and Jones are like 2020, very, very borderline number two running packs probably if they're both 20 to 20 24 24 if it works but i also think and clearly you know that the the involvement that they're or the way that they're producing is in the past right and i think the other side of this though is like with their current adps if either of them misses time and they've both missed time in the past that opens up a real opportunity for the other one to be a lot better than this. Yeah. Or Derek Gore. Or Derek Gore. Yeah. Well, in Tampa Bay, when, when Leonard Fournette,

if you remember two years ago, Fournette kind of didn't really get a lot of work early because he signed late. Whenever Fournette wasn't there and Ronald Jones was a lead back, he was a top, I think he averaged a top eight running back. He was so good in that offense. It's a great opportunity. Darrell Williams is always a guy who could come in and score some touchdowns. He wasn't really that good of a runner, but

he was obviously a must-start guy, basically, or close to it. All right. Yeah, so I guess I don't really know what else to say. We'll move on. We'll move on.

There's nothing to say. The value for both, as he said, is amazing. You know what I mean? You're getting guys in this offense, which is something you always want to do, that are going to touch the ball quite a bit, which is probably going to happen, for free. But the counter to that is what if they're both on the field so much

that neither of them is really worth starting? But it's not costing you much. That's the problem. Clyde is costing you, what, seventh round pick, something like that? That's nothing for what the upside is. No, but I don't agree because you've got a lot of...

For what the upside is, yes, but for what the... But if he doesn't hit his upside and he's just like an eh player, then he's probably not worth a 7th round. What if he's RB24 in the 7th round? You didn't burn a pick and you got there was the potential for the upside.

The way that... That's true. I like to build my teams would be like that's when I'm starting to look for my second running back, if not my third. But, you know, I already have my receivers in place and I haven't taken a quarterback yet. That's an easy dice roll there. Okay.

Brandon Cooks will have a career year and finish as a top 12 wide receiver. In PPR. He's never had more than 1,204 yards, I believe. You think he's going to get there? I think he will score more fantasy points this season on a per game basis than he ever has.

Part of that is because like last, he already got the volume boost last year. His 134 targets was a career high last year. That was on a Texans team. That was one of only three that ran fewer than 60 plays per game. So I think the Texans offensive volume you expect to be higher just because anytime a team is that low in terms of play volume, you expect them to regress towards the mean. I think you expect Davis Mills to at least be a little bit better, which should help Cook's efficiency. And last year, Cook's yards per target, the worst of his career, his yards per reception, the second worst of his career because he was playing with a rookie quarterback who wasn't great. The other thing is he averaged nine targets per game in the nine healthy games he played with Davis Mills. So even those 134 targets,

he was on 153 target pace in games with Davis Mills. I think we'll see more volume and more efficiency from Cooks than we saw last year. His best finish per game is 12th in PPR. He's only had one season in his career, Brandon Cooks, where he's finished higher than 17th per game. So in full

PPR, Heath is projecting the best, the most fantasy points per game. I don't know if that'll translate to the best finish. It depends on the other wide receivers every year, but he's definitely one of the guys I have ranked. This is one of the bold projections that I just haven't ranked this way, or not ranked this way, projected this way. But I have him ranked below where I haven't projected in the projections.

He came out seventh. Okay. Jamie, anything not to like about Brandon cooks? No, there's a lot to love. And first off, speaking of love, love what the Texans did today. They're at a mini camp and they're all wearing shirts that say we stand with Uvalde. So, you know, supporting the, the, the, the community and, you know, just the tragedy there. So good job by the Texans, at least in thatvalde. So, you know, supporting the community and, you know, just the tragedy there. So good job by the Texans, at least in that small gesture.

No, I mean, Brandon Cook's in a great spot. I mean, you look at this receiving core, you know, there's, I don't know, a lot to like, but there's a little bit to like about Nico Collins and his situation. There's a little bit to like about Brevin Jordan and his situation. John Meachie can be, is it Meachie or Mechie? I'm always getting confused. Mechie.

I think it's Mechie. Mechie, if he's, you know's healthy, there's a lot to like there. The run game should be better to open up things in the passing game with the additions of Marlon Mack and Damian Pierce. So this offense is trending in the right direction, as Heath mentioned, Davis Mills. It could be some more targets going in other directions away from Brandon Cooks.

But, I mean, just criminally undervalued again, you know, for, for what the upside is. And I don't know if you want him to be your number one wide receiver, but I don't think you should hate it. If that's the way it shakes out, you know, if you go, you know, in, into the fourth round, because I think that's where he's going to end up settling. Uh, if you get to the fourth round and you've gone, you know, two running backs in the tight end or, or, or some, or some you know combination i'm not taking a wide receiver by that point um he's got that type of upside so there's there's a really good situation for brandon cooks you know you just have to fear at some point as he's getting older you know is there going to be a drop off for the way that he plays um i hope not i hope this isn't the year uh and i like i think that's the big thing like even if you don't

believe anything that i said about brandon, he's still a great value. Oh, he's a tremendous value. What did I say? He's a wide receiver, 27 in NFC ADP since May 1st, something like that. I asked Heath on FFT and 5 if he'd rather have Cooks or the Broncos receivers. He said Cooks.

Jamie, do you agree? Cooks or the Broncos receivers? Yeah. 100% Cooks. As much as I like the Broncos receivers, 100% Cooks. Okay, next bold prediction. This is an interesting one, Heath. Jahan Dotson will be the best wide receiver on the Washington Commanders.

What? Yeah, just stretching a little bit. When did you come up with this one? What's that? When did you come up with this one? Oh, it was definitely the Twitter OTA reports. Okay, I thought that. 100%. I will not deny that at all and i again that should not necessarily change when you draft somebody or how you project somebody but when you're talking about bold predictions well let's

sure let's go with it um he has if you haven't seen had a very good time at ota he's apparently building great rapport with carson wentz and you know who's not at OTA? Terry McLaurin. Terry McLaurin. He's wanting a new contract. And we're just one tweet about Dotson having breakfast with Carson Wentz away from Dotson's ADP absolutely exploding. No, I do think it's worth saying that Dotson's a much better prospect than Terry McLaurin was when he came into the NFL. He's two years younger. He's a first round pick instead of a third round pick. He had almost as much production in his final year at Penn State as Terry McLaurin had in his career at Ohio State. And they drafted Dotson in the first round when they already had McLaurin on the team. So I do think that there's, I don't 80 their value should be a far apart as their adp

is right now and i don't think this one's completely crazy especially if mclaurin's holdout extends in a training game dotson had 20 touchdown catches in 21 games in his last two seasons at penn state he ran a 4.43 yeah he's kind of smaller might be a slot guy i don't know but he earned like a 32 percent target share in college terry mcclurin earned eight percent like their their difference as prospects well mcclurin had michael thomas yeah early in his career um what's that and paris campbell and paris campbell which again that might be might be a point in John Dotson's favor if Paris Campbell was in that game. Well, I thought Campbell was a pretty good player.

Yeah, right, he was. I think if this bowl prediction comes true, Adam, as a Giants fan, is going to be happy because Washington will be even worse. No, I want the first pick. I don't want to. I'm in on the tank this year. Yeah, well, so might Washington be if Dotson's their best receiver. You know, I would hope this doesn't come true.

Because there's much more people invested in McLaurin than there are in Jahan Dotson. Pretty bold, though. I mean, hey, it would probably be a McLaurin injury or McLaurin not playing. Speaking of breakfast with receiver, Dave and i did a hit on hq yesterday uh with 100 days of the nfl 100 days until the start of the season um and he was saying uh the topic was cooper cup and he was saying you know using the line from tombstone about i'm your huckleberry and he kept saying uh that cup is stafford's huckleberry and i said i wonder if they're having huckleberry for breakfast together.

Yeah. I don't understand any of that. I had never saw tombstone, but yeah, I, but I know Heath didn't either. So never saw what tombstone. Oh,

I've seen it like seven times. Oh, okay. What are you talking about? Rural Missouri. I've seen every Western that's ever been made. My bad. That is definitely a movie that I really want to see.

It's on my list. I'll get to it next offseason. Have you seen True Grit? Not seen True Grit. You need to see both of them. The new one wasn't quite as good as the original, but they're both very good.

Okay, last bold prediction. What a wah-wah this one is. Kyle Pitts will finish outside the top eight tight ends again. Ooh. It's no fun. It's not. Kyle Pitts will finish outside the top eight tight ends again. It's no fun. It's not. I ended on a sour note.

I just think it's worth pointing out that Kyle Pitts finished last year tied in 11 on a per-game basis. His team went from Matt Ryan at quarterback to either Marcus Mariota or Desmond Ritter and drafted the first wide receiver in the draft at number eight overall. And now he's around three pick as the number three tight end again. And I don't think that makes a whole lot of sense. It's because he only scored one touchdown on 110 targets and everybody rightly expects he's going to score a lot more. But if he Marcus Mariota, his new quarterback, has a career 4.3% touchdown rate. If Pitts had had a 4.3% touchdown rate last year,

he would have scored five touchdowns if you round up. That still would have left him just behind TJ Hawkinson per game at tight end eight. I don't know what to do with this one. What do you think,ie well i mean you know there's a lot of ifs obviously when it comes to pits you know uh first off is mariotta going to be the quarterback for 17 games you know so does desmond ritter come in and and or does he even start the season and he's such a difference maker you know like we saw once upon a time with

it's a very lofty comparison but a guy like Russell Wilson you know who was not a first round quarterback and you know came in as a rookie and beat out you know a veteran that was brought in to be the guy and Matt Flynn and turn that team around um you know as as a passer Ritter has certainly the upside to be a better passer I don't know if he will be but he has has the potential to be. But I think, you know, you look at Mariota and what he's done with tight ends in the past. I think it was Delaney Walker in Tennessee. He had the one game with Darren Waller in Vegas a couple of years ago when Derek Carr got hurt and Waller just went nuts. The drafting the first wide receiver,

I mean, you know, they were going to bring in bodies somewhere, receiver, I mean, you know, they, they were going to bring in bodies somewhere, you know, so, you know, for their franchise, like thankfully they, they addressed the position, but you know, is Drake London right now better than what the combination of Calvin Ridley early in the season. And then Russell gauge at the end of the season for what this offense was and what pits was competing against, you know, so that that's probably, you know, as a rookie wide receiver, I would say on par, um, with the type of production that was being taken away from, from Pitts. But I think it's just a natural progression of what these tight ends do,

you know, uh, in players do, but, you know, tight ends specifically their second year for the ones that have been great has been the season when they've taken that huge step forward. And so, you know, you're hoping for Pitts to be in the 130 target range. You're hoping for the touchdowns to hopefully be north of five. But as we've seen with George Kittle's career, five touchdowns can certainly be sustainable if the other things are there, the catches and the yards. And that's the other part for Pitts. You know, will his targets lead to just, you know, many more catches, many more receiving yards? And that's the hope. So I think he belongs in the conversation with Kittle and Waller,

more so than the conversation with Kelsey and Andrews. You could debate round three versus, you know, four and five. I'm certainly, you know, would prefer to get him later than that, later than round three. But, you know, if you want a piece of what could be the next great player at that position, you probably have to buy in early. Matt Ryan, by the way, averaged 233 passing yards per game. So it's not like he had a great season.

He had a pretty bad season by his standards. Marcus Mariota in his career has averaged. So again, I won't even do the decimals. I'll just round up. 233 yards per game for Matt Ryan last year. Marcus Mariota has averaged in his career 235, 228. decimals i'll just round up 233 yards per game for matt ryan last year marcus mariotta has averaged in his career 235 228 216 181 yikes now there was a game where he played and didn't start and then 172 another game where he played and didn't start but at the beginning and then yeah

and that's basically it at the beginning it was in that range i i think it's worth asking like how much of matt ryan averaging 233 yards per game last year had to do with matt ryan the year before he averaged 286 the year before that it was 298 the year before that it was 308 i'm just saying kyle pitts had a thousand yard season as a rookie tight end on an offense that didn't even throw for 4,000 yards. Ryan might have been washed last year. Washed up. It could be washed. It's possible Marcus Mariota's washed.

He was never unwashed. I don't know. All right, those are Heat's bold predictions. Jalen Hurts, QB1. Brandon Cook's career season. Two top 24 running backs on the chiefs, Jahan Dotson, the best wide receiver on the commanders and Kyle pits will finish outside the

top eight tight ends again. And let's do some, uh, Jamie, I thought you were going to tell the story by the way about my tweets yesterday. I want to hear the story about your tweets what did you do uh let's see how's the best way to phrase this um so adam did you tweet

something about rocky movies i guess yeah i ranked the rocky movies somebody wanted me to rank them so i ranked the rocky movies and somebody replied to him about the hate for Rocky 6. Rocky Balboa. Yeah. And you replied back something I don't recall. But for some reason, it was off the podcast tweet that he had from yesterday. So me and Dave were tagged in this. And it looked at that.

And it's male genitalia yeah i was i was tweeting back and forth with a with a twitter account where the avatar was just a wiener basically and i had no idea i didn't even look i didn't even notice and the twitter handle suggests it was disgusting. What it was. And so I said to Michael, what are you doing? Jamie replies back, oh bleep. Azar is getting into a back and forth with someone who has a picture of blank

for their Twitter avatar. And I wrote, holy bleep, did not even notice that. Where did Creed fall in the rankings? Hold on. Let me read an email and then I'll look up my Rocky rankings. Okay. Emails. We're talking Rocky. We got to make sure everybody's alive. So listen, here's what we're doing. Here's what we're doing the rest of the show. Emails for a few minutes,

and then Jamie, Heath, and I are going to give our thoughts on the Ozark finale. So when we're finished with the emails, I'll let everybody know. We won't spoil anything. You can turn off the show, but we will be talking Ozark. Okay, anyway, from Matthew,

please rank these tight ends this year in redraft. Dalton Schultz, Zach Ertz, Pat Fryermuth, and Mike Kosicki. This is a great idea. Fryermuth, Kosicki, how do you rank them? We should do this at all of the positions and put them on the website. People, have you ever, hey, Heath, I have a question.

Have you ever gotten a start-sit question during the season? People want to hear your reasoning, not just read your rankings. I'm sorry. Okay, go ahead. I have my Rocky rankings when you're done ranking these tight ends. Is Schultz, Fryermuth who?

Schultz, Fryermuth, Ertz, and Gasicki. Schultz, Ertz, Fryermuth, Gasicki. Yeah. Okay. Here are the Rocky rankings. Rocky 1, Schultz, Ertz, Frymuth, Kisecki. Yeah. Okay. Here are the Rocky rankings. Rocky 1, Rocky 2, Rocky 4, Rocky 3, Creed, Rocky Balboa, Never Saw Creed 2, Gigli, Rocky 5.

If I think a movie is horrible, I put Gigli in front of it whenever I rank it. Okay. This question is from... I don't know who it's from. He actually kind of reversed it here. How have you not seen Creed 2? What's wrong with you? I started watching Creed 2

on an airplane. I saw about 5 to 10 minutes. I thought it was one of the worst starts to a movie. I thought it was so pathetically bad. Well, you... I mean, you don't like Michael B. Jordan.

That's not true. I never said that. It's very true. You cannot misquote me in your stinking thread. You don't like Michael B. Jordan? I love him. He's great. No, I don't feel that way. I have no opinion on Michael B. Jordan. I just didn't really like Creed that much. Anyway, the question is

from Lily, Robin, Ted, Marshall, and Barney. That's how I met your mother, right? Yep. I have a question about DK Metcalf's dynasty value. Everyone seems down on his value compared to a year ago, partially because of the way he finished and the assumption that anybody but Russ is a downgrade in the upcoming season.

However, is there a chance that a lesser QB1 forces Metcalf the ball more? And will losing more games and getting more garbage passing work at the end of games help him as well? He goes a little bit deeper with some stats. Has the hate for DK Metcalf gone too far? Is he a hold, a buy, or a sell in Dynasty? I would say he's a buy because he's certainly cheaper. And all those reasons could be right, as well as he might not be in Seattle next year or they might have a significant quarterback upgrade.

So this is probably as low as he's going to be while he still has the upside to be one of the best receivers in fantasy. So I would absolutely be trying to buy. I wouldn't be overpaying, but I'd be trying to buy for sure. And I don't know what the perceived value drop is. I think I was a little lower on him at the beginning of last year than most. I had him wide receiver five in Dynasty last September. I've currently got him wide receiver nine.

So I've dropped him a little bit, but he's still definitely a top 12 wide receiver and should go in the first three rounds of a rookie draft or a startup. Maybe first two. Yeah, and this How I Met Your Mother character, he has Metcalf in both of his dynasty leagues. He's been looking for offers, and he did get the best offer he got was 103 in the rookie draft. So would you rather have 103 or Metcalf?

Metcalf. Yeah, you're talking about Metcalf versus London, Burks, Wilson, or Ken Walker. No. You'd rather have Metcalf? Yeah. Okay. This is from Ethan. Real quick, would you rather have Metcalf or Brees Hall?

I think that comes down to what you need, but I'd probably still rather have Metcalf. I think that's one I have to pull up the top 154 because I think they're relatively close, but I have Hall ahead of Metcalf. From Ethan, half PPR Keeper League keep five. Patrick Mahomes, Jonathan

Taylor. I'm not going to lie to you, this is a pretty easy one. Mahomes, Taylor, Montgomery. He just says Allen, so I'm thinking that's Keenan Allen. Jerry, Judy, Ridley, Ayuk, Amonra St. Brown, Dalton Schultz. Mahomes, Taylor, Montgomery, Allen, and Judy. Yeah, first five. Yep.

From Ian, we are entering the second year of our PPR Superflex Dynasty League. We have a three-round rookie-only draft this season. I was offered the fifth and the 16th pick in this year's rookie draft for my Travis ETN. I also have the third pick and a mid-second round pick.

Would you give up the fifth and the 16th pick for Travis ETN? It's Superflex, and he also has the third pick. He was offered the fifth and the 16th, so would you accept the fifth and 16th pick for Travis ETN. It's super flex. And he already also has the third pick. He was offered the fifth and the sixth. So would you accept the fifth and 16th? Right? Sorry. Yes.

Would you give up ETN for the fifth and the 16th pick? I would. So you're talking again, one of those receivers, probably Wilson, I think just based on what we'll see, Burke's in London going ahead of him. Walker probably going ahead of him.

So 16 is probably the super flex league so the quarterbacks might start coming to play there um i mean man etn if he was part of this class is he better than breeze hall i would not say so, but I would say he's better than Walker. Yeah, I don't know. He's also got the third pick, so he could end up with

Walker. It's possible. So three, five and 16. And I probably keep you 10. OK. All right.

So it's obviously a pretty even trade. All right, everybody. If you want to talk about ozark please stick around if you don't thank you for being here for the show we'll have dave's bold predictions tomorrow we will not have ben schrager on tomorrow this was ben's last day bye ben i think ben left already he's all right man bye ben. Enjoy your meeting. I got a meeting. Dude, it's your last day.

Wear whatever the hell you want. I got to dress pretty in the office. Come on, Adam. All right. All right. Well, sad day for the FFT family, for sure. But Ben's going on to I don't want to say bigger and better things, but he's going on to hopefully for his sake, bigger and better and better things for him. Yeah,

for sure. Okay. All right. So what'd you guys think? Vozark. Ben's last show of Ozark. Uh, I mean,

I enjoyed it, but I, you know, when I get invested in characters, I never really get like, Oh, that was terrible. You know,

I know some people were disappointed. I think as far as like endings of really good shows go, it was less disappointing than most. Like what? It was better than Game of Thrones. From what I hear. It wasn't better than the Shield. I mean, look, you knew somebody prominent was going to die. Yeah. I wish it hadn't hadn't i didn't like that can i just tell you like my my overarching theme that i came yeah yeah yeah i

maybe had a few drinks when i came up this and i had sent a bunch of dms to one of our listeners who i've become friends with because i couldn't put it out on twitter um like i really think that last season or like maybe even the show as a whole was like this was the feminists mob show it was a takedown of the patriarchy omar was killed by his sister ben was killed by his sister jacob was killed by his wife nelson was killed by rachel javi was killed by ruth marty gets to live but he's clearly not in charge of anything yeah like like the whole thing wendy was responsible for so many people's deaths too right yeah it directly or indirectly she just got so many people well i mean you look at who's in charge now as the show ends yeah but i think though for what you're talking about ruth would have to live maybe yeah yeah i mean i just think like maybe within this world even like the money still

always wins yeah that this the thing was it was more about money winning yeah even in the last scene they they tell you exactly what they were getting at right she's like he's like this isn't that kind of world where the Kennedy is and whatever. And she's like, why not? And then kill him. It's definitely that kind of world. So I was reading a bunch of stuff about,

did Jonah shoot him? Of course he shot him. I agree. But there are some, some people that think like, did he finally become a true member of the family at that point? Well, and like,

that was the other buyback ended being part of that look on Wendy's face. become a true member of the family at that point. What else would he have done? Her buyback ended up being part of the family. That look on Wendy's face when she saw Jonah with the gun, like the pride. That could have been any mob boss when their son finally steps up. And like, it was something. Yeah.

Yeah, I thought that the show was great. I thought the finale was fine it wasn't an amazing finale but it was a great show i'm good you know i'm sad about ruth i i guess i thought that ruth's death could have been a little bit more dramatic i didn't really like that whole scene anybody feel that way i thought it was kind of a whatever scene i think the drama was more like when the the pharmacist whatever her name is she admitted that it was ruth oh yeah that was cool like that that that you know was she gonna lie again and ruth lives i thought like the way they built up to that like where it happened was more

significant to anything like her tearing down all those trailers and reliving for that episode or two episodes all the terrible memories of the people on that piece of land and all of those guys had been killed either by her or by by this whole thing somehow and then she gets shot on that land before she ever does what she was going to do with it so what do you think is it a top five show for you? It's really up there. It's a great show. Let's see how Stranger Things ends. Are you into this season yet?

I am. I watched one episode. It's good. It's a new show. I feel like I had something profound to say about Ozark. I like Narcos better, personally. No. Obviously, I like The Shield better. I like Breaking Bad better.

I enjoyed Game of Thrones more, even though the last two seasons were pathetic. Actually, just season seven. I like Mad Men better. Didn't see it. Mad Men's probably my favorite. Okay.

Yeah, Ozark was great. It was great. I thought Jason Bateman and Laura Linney were so different and played off of each other so well i don't know everything was great the acting was great ruth ruth was the best character on the show by far and i'm yeah i'm happy that netflix let it finish because netflix cancels everything did you see the um i don't i'm terrible with actors names and And so I'm, um, what was the Netflix mini mini series that,

um, Ruth just did on, uh, where she was the New York socialite. My, my wife watched that one. Um, we watched that one and she is a completely different person in that with a

completely different accent. Yeah. But there are times in the last season of Ozark where you hear that accent from the other show kind of starts to play through. Really? Uh-huh. Great. I think that can wrap up our,

uh, our Ozark discussion. Yeah. It just wasn't one of those like, Oh my God. Did you, did you see what it wasn't one of those? This is kind of just wrapped up.

Oh, I know what my question was. I had the dumbest thing. It's unbelievable that I don't know the answer to this. So are they, are the birds out? Or are they just going to keep laundering money with the FBI knowing about it and they're protected in that regard?

I think they're out. Like they got all the funding for the foundation. Right, but they said they have to keep laundering through the bell. But I didn't know if they were doing that or not. No, I think that was until they got their donors. I thought the better question is who owns the bell now? Oh, that's a good question. Probably Marty again.

I just kind of assume that Ruth, knowing what might come, had left it to his Rachel, right? Rachel. Her partner. Or three. Oh, yeah. it to Rachel, right? Rachel. Her partner. Or three. Oh, yeah. Three. That's right.

Yeah. Three is very wealthy. Well, thank you to all of you for watching and listening. This extended version, this Ozark talk. Breaking news. Uh-oh. Wait. The Vikings have signed Albert Wilson.

Oh, I forgot to mention that. That was yesterday. It was yesterday? The Vikings just tweeted Albert Wilson. I forgot to mention that. That was yesterday. It was yesterday? The Vikings just tweeted it 19 minutes ago. Well, they confirmed it, but it was Drew Rosenthal said it yesterday. I have a breaking news sound effect. It's official now. It is official now.

Also, David Njoka is official. Now, if you want to go breaking on that, that happened this morning. That's the dumbest thing I've ever seen. Oh, and Darryl Williams tooryl Williams contract in NFL history? Uh, no joke that he has. Pretty bad. Later, everybody. We'll talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football Today.

Breaking news. Dan Marino has retired. Tom Brady's back.