Fantasy Football Today - Heath's BOLD PREDICTIONS for 2020 (6/5 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 5, 2020

Bold predictions week comes to a close as Heath Cummings makes his bold calls for 2020. Before Heath's picks, we dissect a prediction that David Johnson will be a top 12 RB (1:00). ... News and note...s (5:48) include Derrick Henry's workload, Buccaneers personnel, and NFL players and coaches returning to facilities. ... Heath's bold predictions (27:44) begin with Deshaun Watson finishing as a top 2 QB. Next, why Mark Ingram won't finish as a top 30 RB in any format (35:00). Conversely, Heath loves Hayden Hurst's elite ceiling (39:35). Predictions continue as Heath thinks the Chiefs offense could have six Fantasy studs (45:50). We finish with a wild prediction about the best WR in the AFC East (51:59), who you can draft in the 14th round. ...Email us at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com and tweet questions using #AskFFT. 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow the new FFT Twitch channel: https://www.twitch.tv/FFToday Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @YardsPerGretch, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:01:18 Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Continuing our talk on bold predictions this week, we got a surprise bold prediction, not from Adam Azer. He's still on his little sabbatical. He'll be back next week. At least that's the hope. I'm Jamie Eisenberg. That's Dave Richard.
Starting point is 00:01:36 That's Heath Cummings. We are part of the Fantasy Football Today podcast, if you didn't know that already. But the surprise bold prediction that we have after going through mine and dave's earlier this week not from heath just yet from our buddy chris towers he has a bold prediction of his own you can read i think chris has three bold predictions on the site on cbsports.com one that he wanted us to discuss here is that david johnson will be a top 12 running back in the year 2020. Dave, is he crazy? Yeah, I kind of think he's crazy.
Starting point is 00:02:08 I can't make a case for it in either format. It's a little bit easier to do in PPR just because of Johnson's ability to catch the ball, but that hasn't been a staple of the Texans' offense. He looked terrible in the second half of last season. And I just, I feel like the Texans, I know we're going to talk about Deshaun Watson today. I know he's got something on him. I feel like this whole offense is going to revolve around him.
Starting point is 00:02:37 He will be the sun in the Bill O'Brien galaxy in Houston. Heath, what do you think about Chris's prediction? I'll give you Chris's argument in a second, but give me your side of David Johnson here. Is he somebody that you're looking to get aggressively settling for? How do you sort of come across with David Johnson? I'm looking at right now are non PPR rankings. You haven't ranked the highest at 18 in PPR.
Starting point is 00:03:03 I'm going to assume you're probably the highest as well uh you have him don't see oh 22 so actually dave's eyes dave has him at 20 i haven't 24 in ppr so so dave's the high guy in ppr heath you have him at 22 but you're the high guy in non-ppr and chris's bold prediction was that he would be how good uh number 12 that's a little bit too far but i don't think like if he plays 16 complete games i don't think it's outlandish that there's a couple of things and and what i'll talk about with watson is i don't know exactly what the targets are going to look like in this houston offense this year in the past they haven't thrown the ball a ton to running backs but they've also thrown the ball 150 times to deandre hopkins and I don't think they're going to throw the ball 150 times to Brandon Cooks or Will Fuller or Kenny Stills or Randall Cobb.
Starting point is 00:03:49 So there is some room for some target growth there. And he's still been – it's weird how efficient and good he has been in space catching the football and how absolutely dreadful he has been running the football. And that may just have more to do with the Arizona offensive line. And they just kind of came together in the second half last year. I don't know, but it gets possible. Obviously it's possible. We've seen him perform at a very high level before.
Starting point is 00:04:18 2016 is the year everybody's going to point to when he was a superstar. 2018, he did play 16 games last year. He was limited by injury. Like Dave said, he looked like he was limited by injury like dave said he looked like he was going to be a good fantasy running back early in the season but then whether it was a byproduct of injury of kenny and drake just taking over after they made trade or him just struggling he is going to be 28 um based on the drafting now so according to fantasy football calculator again thanks to our buddy shaggy b for putting this together his average
Starting point is 00:04:44 draft position on fantasy Football Calculator is the number 17 running back off the board. He's going in round three, and he's going ahead of Melvin Gordon, Le'Veon Bell, Devin Singletary, and James Conner. I would take him ahead of Singletary and probably Bell. That's close. But I would much rather have Melvin Gordon than James Conner over David Johnson. Now, Chris's argument is last year,
Starting point is 00:05:06 he averaged 7.9 yards per target and caught 76.6% of the passes thrown his way, even while being targeted more often down the field than nearly any other back. I'm assuming he means any other back on his own team. Carlos Hyde in this Texans offense last year, as we saw ran for a thousand yards, first thousand yard season of Carlos Hyde's career and scored offense last year, as we saw, ran for 1,000 yards, first 1,000-yard season of Carlos Hyde's career, and scored six touchdowns.
Starting point is 00:05:27 So Chris says, give David Johnson the rushing production from what Carlos Hyde did, and you add on 35 catches for 350 yards and a couple of scores, and you've got a top 12 back. I think Heath, you referenced this, or Dave, one of you guys did, that the Texans don't throw to their running backs a lot. In the Deshaun Watson era, which is half of 2017, 2018, 2019, the leading receiver has been Duke Johnson last year with 44 catches on 62 targets. And let's not forget, Duke Johnson's still part of this team. Lamar
Starting point is 00:05:56 Miller, 25 catches on 35 targets. And then Lamar Miller in 2017, again, that was half with Deshaun Watson, 36 catches on 45 targets. So they do not throw to the running backs very much. We know Bill O'Brien not going to be calling plays. So maybe that changes some things a little bit for this Texans offense. And maybe they do incorporate David Johnson more into catching the ball. But as we know, he's had a hard time staying healthy. He is older. And we'll see how this offense, like he said, changes maybe for the better in David Johnson's favor, or maybe for the worst in terms of just it's all going to be on Deshaun Watson. And as I will tell you when we talk about Keith's bold predictions,
Starting point is 00:06:32 I think this is going to be a Cam Newton-type year for Deshaun Watson. Like Dave said, the sun's going to revolve around him in this offense, and I think it's going to be a big year for Deshaun Watson. So there's Chris's argument about David Johnson. I think you can probably tell we don't necessarily agree fully there's going to be a top 12 running back but that's why it's a bold prediction and that's what we're talking about today before we get to Heath's bold prediction some news and notes from around the NFL and some good news in terms of what's happening in terms of the league
Starting point is 00:06:58 itself when it comes to getting back on the field I'll tell you about that in a second but right now let's talk about the Titans and offensive coordinator, Arthur Smith. He says, Derrick Henry's workload for this upcoming season, quote, depends on how games go, end quote. So you got Derrick Henry, who in non-PPR leagues is going as a first round pick in PPR based on what we've seen from our drafts. And I think what we'll probably end up seeing, he's going to probably be in the top 15 overall picks. I don't think it'll be a first-round pick necessarily in PPR.
Starting point is 00:07:27 Our consensus ranking for PPR right now is the number seven running back, number six for non-PPR. And if you go back to my bowl predictions, I'm concerned about his workload coming off of what we saw last year with 400 total touches in terms of the playoffs, as Heath said. And I agree. Typically, we see these running backs fall off when it's the regular season workload but i'm still concerned about derrick henry so he's when you hear that that arthur smith says we'll see how the depends on how the games go for derrick henry do you think maybe the workload that we got from him last year if the titans are trying to maybe preserve him for
Starting point is 00:07:59 the playoffs is going to come down a little bit during the regular season? Well, I think it's likely that the Titans don't have as much success throwing the ball on a per-attempt basis as they did, and it's likely their defense isn't quite as good. So I think game script alone could lead to him not quite having – I mean, he was at 20 carries per game last year, so maybe it's only 18 this year. But I don't think it's enough like i don't think that would be the problem if derrick henry has a problem this year i don't think it's
Starting point is 00:08:31 going to be that they managed his carries too much because he could lose a carrier two per game and still lead the league in russia champs dave we spoke to him uh i spoke to him at the pro bowl we spoke to him as a group at the super Bowl about maybe having his role increase in the passing game. He had a career-high 18 catches last year. If that may be something, they take some carries away, but maybe increase his catches. I think you've said at some point this offseason that maybe he can get to 30 catches.
Starting point is 00:08:59 If that were to happen, how much more attractive would he be? Very. He averaged 11.4 yards per catch last year. And I love the idea of putting him out in space and letting him bust through a couple of, you know, weaker tackles from cornerbacks and maybe some safeties to pick up chunks of yardage. That's how they should be. That's how they should have been using him already. Just put that mammoth out there. Let him do his thing out there. And then he doesn't take on quite as much wear and tear on his armor,
Starting point is 00:09:30 and he ends up being just fine. I'd like to see that happen. Maybe that's what ends up happening in these games where they're falling behind, and it's the fourth quarter, and Tannehill needs easy throws. Maybe they're down just one score in the fourth quarter. I just did the math on this. I don't know if this means anything to you guys. You tell me. Six losses last year for the Titans. Henry still averaged 16.8 carries in those games, and he only had one game with under 15 carries. So it just reeks of commitment to Derek Henry.
Starting point is 00:10:03 It's an offense that has to lean on him. And it's a matter of whether or not you think he can keep doing it. There's a part of me that thinks that he really can, that he's just a special, special talent who can do a lot of really good things. I just, I wish the Titans, they already took a step last year
Starting point is 00:10:20 in showing that they can be creative and they can have their offense evolve. I wish I could buy into them doing it one more time, because if they could, then I would expect Eric Henry to have a bigger role in the passing game and to be used a lot differently. And I think that that would, I think that could make them like a top three fantasy running back. Ben, I want you to jump in here if you can for a second, because we just finished right before we started the podcast, a 12 team super flex mockflex mock draft that's half PPR. So the quarterbacks for our drafts were a little bit higher up.
Starting point is 00:10:51 Certainly in the first round, we saw Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson get drafted. I don't know if we'll talk about this draft at the podcast at some point in the near future. Maybe we won't. You'll see the results on CBSSports.com if you want to get the full results. But Ben took Derrickry at 22 overall and he took him after some running backs like austin eckler kenyon drake joe mixon he took him ahead of other running backs like nick chubb who went to heath josh jacobs clad edwards hilaire ben what was your thought process in taking derrick henry at that spot i think he had the biggest workload
Starting point is 00:11:24 of any of the remaining running backs on the board. And in a half PPR setting, I don't mind that his catches are, will not be very high. And you know, if he does increase the catches, like we're hoping that's just butter on the cake,
Starting point is 00:11:34 but it was a no brainer at the end of round two. I'd love to get him in mid round two and a half PPR draft and in non PPR, even higher. I don't think I've ever heard butter on the cake, but that's a interesting, interesting phrase there. All right. So he takes him at 22 overall in a half PPR. I think in full PPR, that's probably the range he'll go as well. And if we were taking the quarterbacks out, he probably goes a little bit closer to 15 in a PPR setting, even half PPR setting, but that's
Starting point is 00:11:57 kind of where we are with Eric Henry. I'm sure his value will be a little bit different in some of your drafts based on what he did a year ago. Next news item. We got a couple from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Bruce Arian spoke to the media and he said something interesting when you're looking at what the running back situation is. He said that the team would have interest in Devante Freeman, who is a free agent, former Atlanta Falcons running back,
Starting point is 00:12:17 but he said the price is too high and the bucks don't have a lot of cap room. So Bruce Arian is always very transparent and honest when he talks to the media, at least as compared to most other coaches. Dave, with, you know, with Keyshawn Vaughn and Ronald Jones and the uncertainty there, and knowing that they have very high Super Bowl aspirations after making the move to get Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski, do you think they're going to make a move to get Freeman?
Starting point is 00:12:40 Some other reports have indicated maybe Lamar Miller is somebody who could be a cheaper option. Do you see that something that we're going to have to deal with in the next couple of weeks or maybe a month or so? It kind of put the chill on Keyshawn Vaughn and Ronald Jones in the draft too. I felt like they slipped a little bit off of that news. And yeah, I think they're looking for a running back that can protect Tom Brady. I think first and foremost, that's what they're thinking.
Starting point is 00:13:05 Do they really want to put Keyshawn Vaughn in that spot without any off-season work? I think that could be tough. They cannot put Ronald Jones in that spot after last year. Holy moly, please no, God no. I think Freeman makes a ton of sense for them because I think he's good enough as a pass blocker, and I know he still can offer something as a passing downs back.
Starting point is 00:13:29 He, I think that I almost think that what he said, Jamie was, was Arian's way of saying Devante, we'll take you dude, just lower your price tag a little bit. And he's like kind of negotiating through the media. Oh, they've already had conversations. I mean, that's been reported that, you know, free, right. But he's like kind of asking him, just take a, can you take a little bit less? Well,
Starting point is 00:13:46 he's sort of indicated that he'll sit out the season if he doesn't get what he wants and, you know, kudos to him if that's going to be the route he takes, but I don't think he's going to ever play in the NFL again, if he's going to be that steadfast in his contract demands. Heath, are you in your mind already downgrading your projections for the other two running backs, Tampa Bay, knowing that there's going to be a potential movement. Just talk about Vaughn and Ronald Jones.
Starting point is 00:14:07 If in fact they do add somebody. Yeah, it definitely makes me feel not great about my best ball teams that I've drafted with Ronald Jones and Keyshawn Vaughn thinking I've got the number one running back for Tampa Bay. I might still, but that's like, I was kind of hopeful that we were just going to get a
Starting point is 00:14:26 good old fashioned competition between Vaughn and Jones. And one of these guys would have a shot to be a top 20 running back this year. That seems less likely with this statement and would be much less likely if they actually went and signed Devontae Freeman. The one thing I think I'll go back to, hopefully, if people are still investing in Keyshawn Vaughn, rookie drafts, with the hope that he's going to be a significant contributor at some point this year, is David Johnson's rookie season. I think it was Chris Johnson. There was somebody else on the roster as well that they kept cycling through
Starting point is 00:14:57 to start the year, and then by the end of the season, we finally started to see David Johnson get a bigger role. I think that was going to be an expectation this year anyway. That was going to take Vaughn a little bit of time just because rookie, no offseason, and seeing how that would go, especially like Dave alluded to, you know, pass protection for Tom Brady being a vital part of what this offense is going to need.
Starting point is 00:15:13 But I still like Keyshawn Vaughn even if Devontae Freeman comes, but you like him, or at least for me, I like him a round or two later. He would still be my favorite of the Tampa Bay running backs even if they do add Devontae Freeman. I just don't think Freeman at this point in his career is going to hold up. I know he's going to have a big enough role that he'll be that good for fantasy. I'll still take a shot on Keyshawn Vaughn as the best of the Tampa Bay trio if, in fact, they add somebody else.
Starting point is 00:15:35 I would prefer them add Lamar Miller than Devontae Freeman because I don't think Miller has much left to offer either. Another thing coming out of Arian's talk with the media, he said that 12 personnel will be Tampa Bay's's best base offense not best offense base offense and so for those of you that when we hear people talk about 11 personnel 12 personnel 12 personnel means they'll see have two tight ends on the field uh two tight ends are on the field excuse me so that's going to be their base personnel meaning that you're going to get gronk and oj howard or potentially cameron break we expect it to be ojJ Howard at least that's the
Starting point is 00:16:05 hope on the field with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans and so um Heath I'll start with you uh what does this mean for Chris Godwin most importantly because the thing that we saw from Godwin last year was he was a star in the slot and now there will not technically be a slot or be three receivers on the field to have him line up in the slot. They can still be creative, split a tight end out wide. They could do some different things, but I think this kind of lowers the ceiling a little bit for him
Starting point is 00:16:32 if this is going to be their base personnel. You know, I had thought about that and someone had actually tweeted, and I'm trying to find the tweet now with the exact numbers, and I'm probably not going to find it quick enough, but Chris Godwin actually averaged more yards per route run playing outside than he did in the slot last year.
Starting point is 00:16:48 I think he's just a star, and you could line him up inside, outside, on the moon, make him tight end, play him at running back. He's going to be awesome. Agreed. I don't think there's anything that I'll disagree with what you said there. I guess the one thing would be is that what Brady likes to do, with Evans also on the outside, with now another mouth to feed a significant one in Gronk, if he's close to the same guy and just everything sort of coming together for Godwin.
Starting point is 00:17:15 We've talked about downgrading the downgrade for Evans. Is it just another thing to sort of ding this a little bit? Yeah, I mean, for me, it's I this does not impact godwin or evans for me i don't i i like i have already downgated both of them a little bit with brady and gronk coming in so yeah i think like but this particular thing is they're both going to be on the field all the time and i don't think it matters for godwin whether he's in the slaughter outside dave how much of a boost is this maybe for OJ Howard? Eh, I don't know because I'm not sure if he's on, he's, I feel like he's on thin ice. He makes one or two mistakes early on in the year and Cameron break, come on down and break could be ahead of
Starting point is 00:17:56 him anyway, because he offers, you know, just as much of a blocking role as, as Howard does. And maybe, maybe they just kind of split that second tight end role. What I was going to say about Godwin is that I think the worse that the run game is for Tampa, the better it works out for Godwin because he can, he can work in the slot and be an extension of that run game and give Brady easy high percentage passes. And just like he said, he's, he's good enough to be on the outside running whatever route you ask him to. My favorite part about Godwin and really about the Bucs in general is that it's going to be very rare when you see the coverage tilted his way. I just think defense is – there's just way too much to cover in that offense.
Starting point is 00:18:40 And I think when you put 12 personnel out there, I think it makes it really hard on any defense in the league. And it just means God, when one-on-one against somebody, he's going to end up dominating that. I think he's going to continue to have good numbers. One thing that Arians did say about the run game to your point, Dave, about the run game struggling,
Starting point is 00:18:56 he was asked how to get your run game better. And he said, stop playing from behind. So if their offense is as improved as we think it will be, no, at least a lesser, fewer pick sixes and more ball control, more time of possession, then the run game has a chance to be better. When they were playing with the lead at times last year,
Starting point is 00:19:14 we did see some positive performances from Ronald Jones. Again, could be Tishon Vaughn or it could be a veteran that they add. The Colts, they had a lot of different interactions with the media. Obviously, a lot of it going on with what's happening around the world. So if you want to look for some interesting commentary from some NFL people, Chris Ballard was very good on some of the social commentary that we're dealing with. We're not going to necessarily get into that,
Starting point is 00:19:37 but we will talk about what the running backs coach Tom Rathen said. And he said, I'm paraphrasing this, he said, the fact that the team won't have much, if at all, offseason work together on the field could hurt a guy like Jonathan Taylor in the short term. But he did say that Taylor's smarts and pure talent are reasons why he can quickly catch up. So I'll kind of just spin this forward to the next news item we're going to
Starting point is 00:19:56 talk about as well, that it seems as if we're going to get training camp in full. I think Bruce Arians said July 21st for Tampa Bay. That's about the target date for most of those teams. The third week of July is when we're going to get teams back on the field. And for coaches, they're going to be allowed back in their buildings on Friday, June 5th. So they're allowed to start getting back to some normal routines as a result of the coronavirus and keeping away from the facility. So, Dave, when you see Tom Rathman say that about Jonathan Taylor, and we're going to hear that about probably a lot of these rookies
Starting point is 00:20:32 and free agents and whatnot, does that make you less likely to want to draft him and more likely to draft Marlon Mack? I am more likely to draft Marlon Mack? I am more likely to draft Marlon Mack if he slips into the double-digit rounds versus reaching for Taylor in round four or round five. I'm rather convinced at this point that Marlon Mack is going to have a good grip on that job for the first month of the year. The schedule is nice.
Starting point is 00:21:04 The offensive line is going to help Marlon Mack. He's got the experience in the offense. I think the offense will not change much just because Phillip Rivers is there. I think he's going to be one of those good zero RB guys that you can just wait on and use as one of your starters for the first month of the year. And that means if you're drafting Taylor in round five, you got to wait a month. And I do think he's got potential to be this year's Miles Sanders. I think he's got it.
Starting point is 00:21:30 But I just, I'm not, I'm not excited about it. He's just sort of the fall in line with, you know, what you've been saying about the offseason and the lack of opportunities on the field for these guys, just kind of cementing that for you. Yeah, and like some of that's confirmation bias because I speculated, and now every time I see a quote from someone that confirms that, I'm going to value that a lot more than the quotes
Starting point is 00:21:54 that maybe don't confirm that, it seems like. But I do think where I was at with Akers, with Swift, with Taylor, with clyde edwards either like i had expected all of those guys to get off to slow starts but they were still going to lead their team in rush attempts um clyde edwards either was still going to lead the chiefs running backs in targets and i'm just i'm not quite as sure about that as I was. I think they probably still will. If I had to bet on who's going to lead the Colts backfield in touches this year, I'd still bet on Jonathan Taylor. But it doesn't feel like a great bet right now.
Starting point is 00:22:34 What are the odds on Naheem Hines on that? In touches? Odds of leading them in touches. I don't think he would be. But if there was a bet at the Heath Cummings Casino and Sportsbook that he would have the highest odds, I think I would put my money on that. I think that would be 8-1, 10-1.
Starting point is 00:22:52 Yeah, I would, you know, here's five bucks, dude. I mean, you figure he's averaged us about 52 catches, I think, over his career, and so that number probably goes up, let's say, 65 catches for the season. Right, and if anything happens to one of both of these running backs, And so that number probably goes up, let's say, 65 catches for the season. Right. And if anything happens to one of both of these running backs, I mean, I think there's some upside. If Mack gets hurt and Taylor fumbles, maybe the Colts will say, all right, forget it.
Starting point is 00:23:17 Let's just roll with Hines. If he carries a game. Right. That's the question. I think if in a pinch, I think they'd have to. But no, I wouldn't expect that. Yeah. The one thing while I'll still be optimistic in Taylor
Starting point is 00:23:26 is one other thing that Rathman said. He said that part of the reason why this combination will work is that Mack tends to ask to come off the field. I'm paraphrasing again. So he doesn't necessarily need to be a guy that gets a full workload. And I just think Taylor is just much more talented than him. So I'm sure Ben Gretsch would say he's still taking Taylor in the round four range. For me, this doesn't really change anything.
Starting point is 00:23:49 So we'll see if they get to training camp on time. I'm still very much excited about Taylor. Obviously, you've got to factor in what the offseason is. We talked about that with our bold predictions earlier this week when we've had both two days of conversations about Clyde Edwards-Hilaire. And I think Jake Seeley said it as as well that if we get you know just continued missing time missing time missing time then it's going to have to downgrade some of these rookies and where they're ranked i will do the same thing about by the words of lair that i will with uh
Starting point is 00:24:13 with jonathan taylor as well so again we have these uh news items coming out that when teams are going to be able to report uh on the positive side of things So I think Arian said that they've missed or they will miss somewhere around 20 days of work on the field. The other side of it for you, Heath, is does that time start to matter if they get to camp and they have the full month to get ready for the season? Are you going to sort of change your tune back the other way? Yeah, I don't know. I probably won't.
Starting point is 00:24:43 I've kind of right now done my projections as if they don't get anything before training camp. And that's what it like. I think there was always a small chance that they were going to have a rookie camp maybe before training camp. And those guys would get a little bit extra time. These rookies are missing, what, 10 days, eight days of team activities that they normally have each year, and those are gone. So I'll probably – the only way I would change it now is if camp gets pushed back. My projections are if camp's going to start on time. Dave, what about you? Have you changed your opinion on how you're going to evaluate these guys
Starting point is 00:25:17 without the full offseason? Now, the flip side of being on the field is they've spent more time talking and going over plays and the mental side of things. And, you know, I go back to a conversation I had with Darwin Thompson and he said, everybody on this level, once you make it to the NFL, is great athletically for the most part. Obviously, there's a give and take there. But he said the mental side of the game is what's going to take players from, you know, one level to the next. And so now they're getting the opportunity to get soak all that in, spend time in position groups that they maybe have more conversation, spend time with, you know, quarterback, running back, running back, offensive line, offensive line coach, running back, you know,
Starting point is 00:25:51 whatever the case may be. Do you think that will maybe necessarily not push them over the top, but help them get to the level that they could get to once they get to a full off or full training camp? I feel like the, the players that we looked at as NFL ready, the Lambs, the Judys, Edwards, Allaire, I think we could almost say that with,
Starting point is 00:26:14 probably not in terms of pass blocking, but certainly as a receiver back out of the backfield. I think that their learning curve won't be as much of a problem as some others. I think Burrow was NFL ready. I could see him taking a week in training camp to really get a better understanding of what's being asked of him. And then he goes out there and he does. I think Justin Jefferson could be ready.
Starting point is 00:26:37 It's a lot of those other players that maybe don't have that complete skill set and just didn't seem like fully developed players that could really take a little bit longer, but I'm not, I'm not, I'm not quite downgrading them all yet. Okay. So, I mean, we're going to talk about this a lot in the next month as we get closer to the start of training camp. And I want to circle back to something in regard to this when we get to one of Heath's full predictions, because I think it's sort of relevant,
Starting point is 00:27:05 something that they've hit on in terms of one of these, you know, these situations of once they get to training camp, because I think we're going to see these guys do more in training camp than they probably have done before, especially from the rookies and the reps that they'll take. They may get just a little bit more fast forward than they might have done in some previous off season. So there's your news items for what we're talking about today.
Starting point is 00:27:26 And if you missed our Twitch on Tuesday, you didn't miss anything because we did not do it. So we're going to reschedule Poker Night for this coming Tuesday. It is going to be at 7 o'clock Eastern once again on Twitch. That is going to be Tuesday, June 9th. We'll be doing Poker Night once again. You can find it at twitch.com slash FFtoday. That's twitch.com slash FFtoday.
Starting point is 00:27:50 And the guys will be playing poker. I will not be there because I'm going to take some time off following an Adam Azar footstep. Adam should be back for that Poker Night, and hopefully Dave can redeem himself, and maybe he can defend his title as the poker champion here as part of FFT. Your turn to take a sabbatical, huh, Jim?
Starting point is 00:28:08 My second one, and there'll be probably a third one and a fourth one before the season. That's nice. Sign up for our newsletter. If it's for the same reason Adam's doing it, that would be a fourth one. Sign up for our newsletter. Visit cbssports.com slash newsletter. Stay up to date with fantasy football content all offseason long. Get your news of the day, editorial pieces, updated rankings,
Starting point is 00:28:26 and more again at cbssports.com slash newsletter. So check out Poker Night, check out our newsletter, follow us on our Facebook page, and get all of the great fantasy football information from us because we are going to help you win all of your fantasy leagues in the year 2020. And as a result, you get some bold predictions from heath cummings let's dive into that right now with bold prediction number one so heath deshaun watson will be the number two quarterback in fantasy this year tell us why well of course he got rid of deandre hopkins so now
Starting point is 00:28:57 he's going to be better than he's ever been before no i think there's an opportunity here for the Texans offense to be a little bit more, I guess, multiple in the way they attack defenses. We're not going to see 150 targets going in the same place, but they've got three guys and Brandon cooks, Will Fuller, Kenny Stills, who can all get behind the defense in the snap of a finger. And they've got Randall Cobb, who's not exciting for fantasy, but he helps quarterbacks over the middle.
Starting point is 00:29:28 They have like 17 tight ends. And then they have two of the most efficient pass-catching backs in David and Duke Johnson. And I don't think their defense is going to be very good at all. We've never seen Watson attempt more than 505 passes. League median last year was 575 passes. If he gets up over 550 for the first time, over the first three years of his career, he's been one of the most efficient young passers in NFL history.
Starting point is 00:29:57 Just a small increase, a 10% increase in volume, and we could see him give us career highs in yards and touchdowns and continue doing what he does on the ground as well. So you have him ranked fifth. Our consensus ranking is sixth. And before I let Dave pick this apart a little bit, I want to ask you why is he not either A, ranked second or a little bit higher? And the guys that you have ahead of him, Mahomes and Jackson, makes sense.
Starting point is 00:30:25 But why is he not third for you ahead of maybe Prescott, who you have at three, and Wilson, who you have at four? Well, I do think, first off, we talked about this earlier in the week. These are bold predictions, not what I think is going to happen. It's like the most likely outcome. I think Dak Prescott took a step last year, and he's been a top five quarterback every time that he's had an actual number one wide receiver and Ezekiel Elliott. And now not only does he have that, but he's also got CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup as well.
Starting point is 00:30:54 Like, he's in an awesome situation with a great creative offense. I struggle between Jackson and Dak Prescott, to be honest. So it's like I've got Dak right there with Lamar. And then, like, it's just the concern for watson over like does his efficiency fall off without deandre hopkins it is a big loss it's a big loss right so dave you have him at sixth obviously still as a top 10 quarterback a number one option for you uh where do you see the flaw in this bold prediction well the flaw is you've taken away the receiver that's been responsible
Starting point is 00:31:26 for about 30% of Deshaun Watson's production in his career. And replacing that with Cooks and Will Fuller, I mean, it comes down to how often they're on the field and how good they are. If Brandon Cooks is as good as he was two years ago, and if Will Fuller is as good as he would have been in 2018, assuming he plays a lot of games, I'll tell you what, I think he's got a chance. I think Watson has a chance to finish as the number one QB
Starting point is 00:31:54 because you're talking about a lot of speed on the field. Watson is a total gamer. I think he's going to, again, I said it before, I guess we're being astrological today on the pod. He's the son of Bill O'Brien's galaxy, and everything's going to revolve around him. I don't expect David Johnson to be the centerpiece of this offense by any stretch. Duke Johnson won't be either. It would make a ton of sense if they leaned on those two guys as pass catchers.
Starting point is 00:32:18 That would help support that floor for Deshaun Watson. I think it's important to lay out what his career highs have been so far. He's had 26 touchdowns. That's the highest he's had. Can he beat that without Deshaun Watson? I'm nervous about that. 4,165 yards. Can he do better than that? If Cook's and Fuller stay healthy, I think he can. He ran for seven touchdowns last year. I think he might have to do more running this year than he did last year. I can't rule that out. He's had either 400 or 550 yards rushing each of the last two seasons. Can't rule him out of having that either. There's a lot to really like about him, but I'm still not sure if he can hit the same type of marks as Russell Wilson, who's given us
Starting point is 00:33:01 33 touchdowns on average each of the last three seasons, and that's just passing. Kyler Murray, who I think has a decent chance to be the NFL's first 4,500 quarterback. And then you've got Mahomes, Jackson. You've got Dak. I think those guys, I feel like they're a little bit safer because their receiving cores are a little bit safer, and that's enough for me. It doesn't mean I'm not drafting Deshaun Watson.
Starting point is 00:33:28 If I'm going to spend a pick and call it round five on a quarterback, I'd rather have Murray and Wilson, not in that order. Watson for me is number three. I think this is going to be the best year of his fantasy career. I think that we're going to see from him. He was on pace his rookie season before he got hurt to run for what would have been a career high 615 yards. You referenced that Dave, his best was 551, which was the following season.
Starting point is 00:33:55 I just think he's going to take everything on his shoulders. I hope they don't give him a contract extension this year. So I think that's something that's going to motivate him as well. Maybe like what we saw from Dak Prescott last year, a lot of it. He knows he's getting paid no matter what. Yeah. But is he going to be Patrick Mahomes paid or is he going to be you know a couple notches below because you know Mahomes is probably going to set the mark for the highest paid player ever and so I think Watson in the same draft class is probably going to want something similar and we'll see what Dak Prescott gets as well but I think that they're going to see
Starting point is 00:34:21 uh Watson you referenced uh four thousand and five I wouldn't be surprised if we have 4,000 and 1,000 from Deshaun Watson. He has that type of upside if he puts the team on his back. So I'm excited about it. Sorry. I do have to add a – Dave, did you say Kyler Murray was going to be the first 4,500 quarterback? Yeah. Deshaun Watson has a 4,500 season. He does? Oh Oh yeah, I guess
Starting point is 00:34:46 he does. Yeah. And so it'll be the second one. You're right. Fourth. Russ does too. And I thought I looked it up and I didn't see the other one there. I might've messed up when I did that. Yeah. I can see Watson being the best quarterback in fantasy too. You know, I just think he has that type of potential. The receivers have to stay healthy. That's a big F because I don't think he's going to do it without those guys, at least one of them having a big season. And so, but I do think, like I said, I think this is going to be his Cam Newton type of year that we saw from Cam in 2015, where he just puts the team on his back and carries them. I think you could see that from Deshaun Watson with, you know, seven to 10 rushing touchdowns. I think we're going to see him,
Starting point is 00:35:19 you know, 30 passing touchdowns. I'm still excited about him. I've gone back and forth from anywhere from three to six in terms of my rankings. He wins the fourth quarterback last year in terms of how he finished. I think he can challenge the two guys at the top of most ranked lists in terms of Mahomes and Jackson, but he has the most uncertainty
Starting point is 00:35:37 given the loss of Hopkins and the addition of only Brandon Cooks as a significant weapon. Hopefully Will Fuller is healthy. So there's bold prediction number one. Deshaun Watson will be the number two player. He's going to kick out Lamar Jackson. Mahomes won, so Watson too.
Starting point is 00:35:51 If things go the way that you think could happen for Watson. But I will say that if he finishes number two, it doesn't matter who finishes number one. I still have to say that. He would have outperformed his draft position by far. Next bold prediction from Heath Cummings. Mark Ingram will not be a top 30 running back in any format. So right now you have him ranked 25th in PPR, 23 in non-PPR,
Starting point is 00:36:14 but the bold prediction is he's going to go the other way from where you have him ranked. Our consensus rankings are number 24 in PPR, number 21 in non-PPR, and he's being drafted right now as the 26th running back off the board. That's in PPR as the first pick in round five behind some guys, some rookies in terms of jobs and Taylor cam makers and Deandre Swift. So Keith, what's your concern about Ingram this year? Well,
Starting point is 00:36:38 I think that just because he was better than his age suggested he should have been last year does not mean that same thing is going to happen this year. In fact, it's less likely the older that he gets. That's the way these things work. And the fact that they spent that kind of draft capital on J.K. Dobbins when they already had – like, Gus Edwards had been really good in that role. If they just needed somebody to keep Mark Ingram fresh,
Starting point is 00:37:00 I think Gus Edwards can do that just fine. They've got Justice Hill. They're talking about using all four of them. JK Dobbins is a completely different animal from Gus Edwards and justice Hill. Like I think talent wise, he's right up there at the top of this class, just behind Jonathan Taylor for me.
Starting point is 00:37:16 And I just, there's injury risk for Mark Ingram. And then there's the risk that JK Dobbins is just so much better than the second half. This is more of a 50, 50 split and i don't like we already know mark ingram is not going to score 15 touchdowns again his touchdown rate was out of this world if you just use his career rate he loses half of his
Starting point is 00:37:35 touchdowns from last year so the big time regression is coming and so is jk dobbins dave is ingram somebody that you settle for or is it somebody like when you get to that round four through six range if you've gone running back two receivers you know running back three receivers quarterback thrown in the mix tight end thrown in the mix and you need a safe number two running back do you feel like that's how Mark Ingram is or is he just somebody like I hope he does something similar to what he did last year with 15 total touchdowns like he said his touchdown rate was out of this world. But he has multiple seasons in his career of double-digit scores.
Starting point is 00:38:12 And even though he's a little bit older, going to be 31 by the end of the season, he hasn't had that tread on his tire because of sharing in New Orleans and some injuries as well. Which matters to me. That's something that in the course of my career of studying running backs, I think that matters more than just waking up one day and knowing that you've been on the planet for 30 years. To me, that doesn't make a difference. It's more about how much work you've put on.
Starting point is 00:38:34 And he's close. He's getting there. But I think he can come through with double-digit touchdowns again. I do hear what he's saying, though. How do you add J.K. Dobbins and then not use him at all? And you think about Justice Hill and Gus Edwards, especially Edwards. He was good last year. So they could mix and match a running back and really, really run the ball like crazy this year. I think that's what the eggs in their basket say they're going to do.
Starting point is 00:39:00 So I look at him as someone that I settle for. Certainly would rather have guys like Gordon, Carson, Connor, Gurley ahead of him. I'll take him ahead of the rookies. I'll take him ahead of David Johnson in non-PPR. And Le'Veon's a tough one. For now, I've got Ingram ranked ahead of Le'Veon. I'd like to see something good come out with Le'Veon. You're talking non-PPR for that, right?
Starting point is 00:39:24 This is non-PPR. PPR, it's obvious that Le'Veon's ahead of him non-PPR for that, right? This is non-PPR. PPR, it's obvious that Le'Veon's ahead of him because I don't think Ingram can catch the ball. And the rookies you're taking first in PPR? No, I don't think so. I'm just looking at your rankings. I mean, Everett's a layer, obviously. I'm sorry.
Starting point is 00:39:37 You have Swift, Akers, and Taylor all ranked ahead of Ingram in PPR. Taylor probably shouldn't be there. And maybe by the time training camp comes around, he'll be ahead of all of them there too. I don't see him catching a ton of passes, but I do see him handling the ball at the goal line quite a bit. I think that's going to be the last place Dobbins works for Baltimore.
Starting point is 00:39:57 Keith, you're still taking Ingram over the rookies though, right? The non-Edward Taylor rookies. Right. Okay. So yeah, for me,
Starting point is 00:40:04 I'm, I'm, I'm, it's sort of a mix. I'll take Taylor ahead of him. I will take acres ahead of him. I will take Ingram ahead of Swift though, just because I think the workload could be similar. I still think he's going to have a chance to score double digits and touchdowns if he stays healthy. Cause I think he's got that role locked up again, 15 total touchdowns, not realistic, especially since he had five of those in the passing game,
Starting point is 00:40:23 but he does have since 2015, four seasons where he's gotten you at least 200 ppr points and so a lot of that has come in shared situations as well so we'll see how he does he was the number 11 running back in ppr last year again probably not realistic for him to repeat that as he will be 31 one tight end who we hope is going to be very good this year heath a little bit more so than the rest of us based on his bold prediction, although I like this guy quite a bit. So Heath's bold prediction is Hayden Hurst will finish as a top three tight end. So right now he is the consensus number 11 tight end in our rankings, and you have him at number 10.
Starting point is 00:40:56 I think I have him at number 9 based on his average opposition. He's going as the 11th tight end off the board in the ninth round. So this could be a big year for Hayden Hurst going to Atlanta, right? Yeah, and it's really easy to answer why I don't have him ranked like the bold prediction because there is the uncertainty of the offseason and the changing teams and the fact that he hasn't done it yet. But you look at Dirk Cutter's offenses over the past three years, 125 targets per year to the tight end position.
Starting point is 00:41:23 Austin Hooper was on pace for 119 targets last year. At 110 targets with Hayden Hurst's career efficiency, you're looking at somewhere around 75 catches, 900 yards, and six touchdowns. That's not quite top three material, but that's with his efficiency catching passes from Joe Flacco and Lamar Jackson. He'll be catching passes from Matt Ryan, so I think he can take a small step up from there. And if everything goes right, he absolutely has top three upside.
Starting point is 00:41:50 Give me those numbers again. That's Darren Waller 2020 potential. Give me the numbers again, his efficiency and those numbers. 76, 9, 13, and 6. Okay, so in two seasons for Hooper, the last two for Atlanta, he averaged 73, 724, and 5. So the yard's a little bit down, but everything else is in the same range. And that's your giving based on Hayden Hurst's efficiency
Starting point is 00:42:12 in this type of role. So Hooper in that two-year span averaged 93 targets for the Falcons. And last year he was the number six tight end in PPR. So Dave, I think we're all kind of in the same boat on Hayden Hurst that we like him as a number one tight end option this year. You've gone back and forth. I think on, on your fifth tight end, you talked about this earlier in your bowl predictions that Higby right now is
Starting point is 00:42:32 your fifth guy. Cooper was your fifth guy. At some point we can see Hayden Hurst is your fifth guy. Do you think that'll ever happen that he can maybe jump ahead of Higby based on his opportunity now with the Falcons? I'm trying to think about what it would take for that to happen. Would it take an injury to Julio or Ridley? Would it take an injury to Todd Gurley for that to happen? That might be the case.
Starting point is 00:42:55 I don't see myself ranking him fifth, but I can't rule out sixth. And the thing that I remember doing this when the trade went down, I spent not enough time, but just enough to take a look at just Austin Hooper and how he't quite as physical if I remember as, as Hooper, but certainly somebody who could be a little bit more of a playmaker down the field and their size. They're, they're basically, I know when, when you look at their height and weight, they're the same, but I just felt like Hooper carried it just a little bit better, but he wasn't quite as fast. I think there is potential for Hearst.
Starting point is 00:43:44 He's got to stay healthy. And if he can, yeah, top five, top six, he can make it there. Right now he's ninth for me, 11th for Dave, and eighth for Heath. But, again, the bold prediction is that Hurst would be a top three tight end. You mentioned injuries. You know, he's had a hard time staying on the field. He's battled some, I, I think depression issues as well. So hopefully all those things are behind him.
Starting point is 00:44:08 He was essentially in a three-way, uh, timeshare, uh, with Mark Andrews and Nick Boyle. Um, but the pedigrees there, he is a former first round pick. Remember the Ravens, they drafted her before they drafted Lamar Jackson, um, in that draft class. And so they liked him a lot and they gave up a lot to, you know, the Falcons gave up a lot to get him a second round pick and a fifth round pick. I think there was a draft that coming back in their direction for Hearst as
Starting point is 00:44:30 well, but they like him a lot. And we'll see if he fills this role again. You know, if you're just looking at what Hearst has done or what Hooper has done the last two years, 93 targets, 73 catches, 724 yards and five touchdowns that would put him in the conversation to be a top 10 tight end. But he, as he told you, he can do a little bit more,
Starting point is 00:44:45 maybe in terms of the yards, that would be nice to see from Hayden Hurst. So a guy that you can wait for on draft day, not to spend the capital that you would on Andrews or the other three guys ahead of him or it's Kelsey or Kittle. And then he's in that same conversation with Hunter Henry, Tyler Higby, Evan Ingram, Gronk, Hooper still, you know, so that's kind of where you're looking at with Hayden Hurst for this year. We're going to take a quick break.
Starting point is 00:45:06 When we come back, we're going to finish up Heath's bold predictions and talk about some other players as well. So hang out for a second. Miller Lite. The light beer brewed for people who love the taste of beer and the perfect pairing for your game time. When Miller Lite set out to brew a light beer, they had to choose great taste or 90 calories per can.
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Starting point is 00:46:15 All right, let's wrap up Heath's bold predictions here. We got two more to get to, and this one's a little bit complicated. So Heath, help me out here if I butcher this one. This is your bold prediction. Kansas City will have the number one quarterback, the number one tight end, two top 20 running backs, and two top 20 wide receivers. So give us the names outside of the obvious ones, but give us all the names here. Kansas City will have the number one quarterback, number one tight end, two top 20 running backs, and two top 20 wide receivers. I don't really think this is that outlandish because the Chiefs in 2018
Starting point is 00:46:40 had the number one quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, the number one tight end, Travis Kelsey, the number one quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, the number one tight end, Travis Kelsey, the number one wide receiver, Tyree Kill. And then Kareem Hunt was a top five back for the first 10 weeks of the season. Damian Williams was a top 10 back for the last six weeks of the season. So this is, we'll go with, obviously the running backs are going to be Clyde Edwards-Hilaire and Damian Williams. I think it would be interesting if the Chiefs just decide, we're going to give Damian Williams 10 to 12 touches per game, and Damian Williams just stays healthy in this offense. He might be a top 20 running back, and Clyde Edwards-Hilaire can still be really good as well.
Starting point is 00:47:17 If I had to give a name for the receiver, the second one, it would be Meikle Hartman. All right. Over Sammy Wat watkins just because like when the chiefs threw in the ball and they didn't do it often last year with hardman when they threw in the ball opposing teams had no answer at all it's just it's i think it's really difficult to account for his speed and playmaking ability when you have to focus on stopping tyree kill travis kelsey and now clyde edwards e there. So yes, he's going to regress. He's not going to average 20 yards per reception like he did last year. He's not going to score six times on 41 targets, but I think there's a
Starting point is 00:47:54 chance that his targets might double. And if that happens, then he could have an A.J. Brown type year from last year. All right, Dave, I'm going to give you the average opposition for these two. If you tell me which one you want at their current price tag. So Mahomes is the first quarterback off the board. This is, again, according to Fantasy Football Calculator, he's going in the second round with the second pick in the second round. Travis Kelsey also going in the second round with the 10th pick in the second round. He is the first tight end off the board.
Starting point is 00:48:19 Of the running backs, Edward Solaire is going in the second round, eighth pick in the second round. He's the 14th running back off the board. Damian Williams is going in the seventh round with the running backs, Edward Solaire is going in the second round, eighth pick in the second round. He's the 14th running back off the board. Damian Williams is going in the seventh round with the sixth pick, 33rd running back off the board. Tyree Kiel at the wide receiver spot is the fourth receiver off the board. He's going in round one at number 11 overall. Then you get Hardman and Watkins in a similar range.
Starting point is 00:48:40 Hardman is actually going ahead of Watkins right now. He's the 47th receiver off the board. Watkins is the 50th receiver off the board. Hardman is going with the of Watkins right now. He's the 47th receiver off the board. Watkins is the 50th receiver off the board. Hardman's going with the seventh pick in round 10, and Watkins is going with the ninth pick in round 11. So you only get one Chiefs player at their current value, which is the best value. Which is the best value or which is my favorite value?
Starting point is 00:48:59 Which is the best value and then which is your favorite? I think the best value is Kelsey, and I think that'll probably be my favorite value as well. Heath, what about you? Yeah, that was a lot of names and numbers. I think it might be Damien. Damien Williams in the seventh round with a 33rd pick? Yeah, because I think you're drafting him,
Starting point is 00:49:19 and you're probably starting him week one. You might be. You might be starting him for a a while so it'll be really interesting how that combo works and what the touch split is between him and uh Clyde I really think I mean I'm I'm thinking that you might start him in week one and by week three you're thinking about cutting him off your team I was just gonna say that I think we're gonna find out and and this ties in clearly a lot of the conversation we've been having, Damian Williams, Marlon Mack, Daryl Henderson, Kerryon Johnson.
Starting point is 00:49:54 You know, a lot of these guys that we are expecting to be replaced by rookies, they could swing a lot of leagues, certainly early in the season, and maybe the course of the season if these rookies don't get the playing time that we're talking about because the the fantasy teams that draft those guys early are going to be in probably some tough spots you know like for me i take a lot of clad ever till error in the second round that could be a waste to pick especially for the first you know half if not longer of the season the same thing like we just talked about earlier in the show with jonathan taylor and what marlon max impact would be so yeah williams if you're getting him in round seven that's a good value for what a guy could still give you what he could still give you at his potential.
Starting point is 00:50:26 Like, I think just looking at it, if we didn't have to pick the name and you just look at the group of Henderson, all those guys, plus Kerryon Johnson, plus Ronald Jones, a third of those guys are probably going to end up with 200 touches. We just don't know which two are going to hold onto their jobs and which two rookies are going to disappoint. But a couple of those guys are going to end up being 200 touches. We just don't know which two are going to hold on to their jobs and which two rookies are going to disappoint. But a couple of those guys are going to end up being starters most of the year. Part of the problem is that Williams has battled injuries in his career.
Starting point is 00:50:53 He's a little older. Mack has battled injuries. Obviously, Kerryon Johnson has battled injuries. So that's part of the problem is these guys don't stay healthy. So that's why they're potentially being replaced. All right, so Keith is going to tell you that one quarterback, one tight end, two top 20 running backs and two top 20 receivers.
Starting point is 00:51:09 So that would be Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelsey, Damian Williams, and Clyde Edwards, Hilaire and Tyree kill. And for him, Nicole Hardman will all finish as starting fantasy options for the chiefs banking on the chiefs offense being great.
Starting point is 00:51:21 Once again, no surprise there. Final ball prediction for Heath is that Denzel Mims will be the best wide receiver in the AFC East. So the rookie for the Jets who is going to step into a role that could be pretty prominent, as we saw. I know Robbie Anderson. We'll find out what it means for Rashad Perryman as well.
Starting point is 00:51:37 But last year, Robbie Anderson, 96 targets. That's what Mims could be looking at. Right now he's the consensus number 57 wide receiver for us. Heath, you have him ranked at number 51. So you think he's going to be better than Julian Edelman, better than Devontae Parker and Preston Williams, better than Stephon Diggs and John Brown and Cole Beasley, everybody else in the AFC East, James and Crowder on his own team as well. That's the potential for Denzel Mims. Well, and kind of the point of this one is, and I'm glad we saved this one for the very end of the show, so a lot of people are not going to hold me to Well, and kind of the point of this one is, and I'm glad we saved this one for the very end of the show
Starting point is 00:52:05 so a lot of people are not going to hold me to this, but part of the point of this is there are no AFC East wide receivers in my top 20. You don't have to be a star to be the best wide receiver. I don't know who's going to throw the football to Julian Edelman. I expect Devontae Parker to regress. I think it's going to be tough for Stephon Diggs with Josh Allen. I do think Mims is very talented.
Starting point is 00:52:28 I liked him before the draft. I don't trust Brashad Perryman. I expect the Jets to be playing from behind. And if Sam Darnold, like, if you're ready to just give up on Sam Darnold, and I would understand that, I'm not drafting him or anything, but if he is going to make the leap, it's not going to be because he continues to throw three yard passes to jamison crowder and levy on bell and they get two yards after the catch and he averages five he's gonna start taking some shots down the
Starting point is 00:52:54 field i do think mims could be if if he earns the targets he could be easily their best red zone target in year one all right dave so mimims with a dart throw at the end of your draft, based on value comparatively to Parker or Diggs, who are going to go in the round four or five range, Edelman, depending on your format, round five or round six, we could throw out John Brown and Preston Williams and the other guy, Harry. You don't have to.
Starting point is 00:53:22 That's okay. Can Mims, if things just break right for him, could he be this year's A.J. Brown? Could he be this year's D.K. Metcalf? This year's Terry McLaurin? Does he have that type of potential? Oh, man. I have a hard time seeing it.
Starting point is 00:53:37 And, look, let's put respect on Heath's name. He called Michael Thomas a couple years back when it happened. That was a great call. So I am going to take it seriously. I did feel like Mims was maybe the most raw receiver that went in the first couple of rounds of the draft. And I don't love the destination for him. I don't love that he's in New York,
Starting point is 00:54:00 and I think there is a path to him to play a lot, but I don't know if that necessarily means that he's going to be great. I don't know if Bershad Perryman is going to be great either, but I've seen it from him over the last five games last year. It's a different offense, different quarterback, but maybe he's the better dart throw. I'm really not interested in drafting any Jets in general. Mims with the late pick, I'm not going to tell you not to do it
Starting point is 00:54:26 because if he gets off to a good start, you're going to be glad you have him. And if you spend a round 13 pick on him and he ends up stinking, you'll cut him and you'll probably never go back to him off the waiver wire again. It's going to be interesting. Like I said, I'll reference this mock draft before we wrap things up here that we just finished before the show. I went kind of away from wide receiver in this draft, and I was taking some guys toward the end of the draft,
Starting point is 00:54:50 and two that I took to my last picks were Brandon Ayuk and Denzel Mims because I think they step into situations where they could be heavily used, whether they are successful in those roles. I think that Mims is better than Rashad Perryman right now, and I think both you guys alluded to this. You know, he should have an opportunity to, you know, be a better receiver prospect-wise than what Jameson Crowder is, although Crowder's in a good spot as a slot receiver for Adam Gase.
Starting point is 00:55:15 But, yeah, if he ends up with, you know, the majority of those 96 targets, if not taking all of them from Robbie Anderson, he could be better than that, what Anderson produced last year, which wasn't very much. A lot of that had to do with, you know, Donald missing time, but Anderson gave you 52 catches, 779 yards and five touchdowns for a guy that you're getting in the 14th round based on his average job position. You'll definitely take that if he's going to be close to 100 targets.
Starting point is 00:55:37 And, you know, so we'll see if that's the opportunity that Mims has. So it should be fun to see if he's the best wide receiver for the Jets, let alone the best wide receiver in the AFC East, but we'll see. Maybe he's better than Parker, better than Edelman, better than digs and the rest of the wide receiver. No one can say it isn't bold. No one can say it isn't bold. That is true. Very, very bold prediction. Let's wrap up these bold predictions, then say goodbye here.
Starting point is 00:55:58 So Deshaun Watson will be the number two quarterback in 2020. Mark Ingram will be, will not be a top 30 running back in any format. Hayden Hurst will finish as a top three tight end. Kansas City will have the number one quarterback tight end, two top 20 running backs and two top 20 wide receivers this year. And Denzel Mims will be the best wide receiver in the AFC. If you want to hear Dave's bold predictions and my bold predictions, you can find them wherever your podcasts are found.
Starting point is 00:56:22 We thank you for taking the time to listen to us here this week. Adam Azer will be back soon. We'll be back next week. Give you more of the stuff you need, the information you need to help you win your fantasy. For Dave, for Heath, I'm Jamie. Gotta go bye.

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