Fantasy Football Today - Heath's Bold Predictions! Swift, Dak and Andrews (06/02 Fantasy Football Podcast)
Episode Date: June 2, 2021Heath thinks D'Andre Swift will be the best Lions RB in a long time, Dak Prescott could break a record and Mark Andrews could be TE1. Before we get to that, we go over some NFL news as Ben Roethlisber...ger gives some clarification on his elbow ... D'Andre Swift Top 5!? Find out why Heath is so excited and what might go wrong for Swift this season (6:24). Then we spend some time on Dak Prescott (15:15). Was he really so great last season, or did he just throw the ball a ridiculous amount of times? That may not matter because there are plenty of reasons to like Dak in 2021 ... Mark Andrews has the talent and the efficiency to be TE1 this season (23:30), but we have to consider the Ravens passing game and perhaps some target competition as well ... Your emails at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports.
On his way to the end zone.
Tell you what, that was a spectacular play.
It's time to dominate your fantasy league.
What a play.
Off to the races.
Touchdown.
Oh, he's done it again.
Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben.
Bowl predictions. Here we go.
It's time for Heath to give his three bowl predictions on Bowl Prediction Week on Fantasy Football Today.
We're going to talk about Dak Prescott, the quarterback robot.
Same quarterback every single year.
More on this argument a little bit later.
It's a bit of an exaggeration on my part, but more on this argument a little bit later. It's a bit of an exaggeration on my part,
but more on this argument a little bit later.
We're going to talk about DeAndre Swift and Mark Andrews.
Heath is going to give you the reasons
why Mark Andrews could be tight and won this season.
Heath, you're up. You ready?
Oh, I am fine. Look at my shirt. Of course I'm ready.
What is that shirt?
This is a shirt. It has birds on it i bought this for
halloween one year when i was going as a hopper and i had the mustache going and uh yeah it's
it's a i bring it out for special occasions it's a bold shirt this is a bold show i just i am
wearing a literally a plain white t-shirt on Bold Prediction Day.
That is a sign of disrespect toward Heath, and I am sorry about that.
Were you a big plain white tees fan?
No, I was not.
I think Hey There Delilah is a pretty solid song.
Pretty catchy, yeah.
Yeah, it is.
Jamie, Hey There Delilah, yay your day.
Yay.
All right.
Everybody agrees on something.
So we'll just go through a few news items,
then we'll get to the bold predictions,
and we'll read your emails.
I'm wearing my West Boca coaching shirt today.
You coach everything.
Big tournament tonight.
Big T-ball tournament.
T-ball tournament.
Is it on Paramount Plus?
It should be.
It should be.
Okay, I'll tell you what's coming up on Paramount Plus in just a bit.
So here are your news items.
Houston signed running back Rex Burkhead, Jamie.
Yes.
Couldn't be more excited about the Houston
Texans backfield of old,
decrepit, tired, and useless
of the four guys that they have there now.
Okay, wait a second. Old
is Ingram.
Decrepit would be
Burkhead.
David Johnson's probably tired
and Bill Blinsey's useless.
I don't think you want to put him in that category.
It's so terrible.
It's absolutely terrible.
As
Chevy Chase would say,
you're not good.
Ben Roethlisberger
said that he had...
I thought we were going to do an emergency podcast on the Texans backfield.
That's how excited I was about it.
It's an emergency.
So Ben Roethlisberger, you know, they've been very vague about his elbow surgery from two years ago, two seasons ago.
He said he had total reconstructive surgery on his elbow.
He also talked up Najee Harris, said Najee Harris is going to be something to see this year, but he, you know, he, he's, I think he sort of alluded to his season last year was impacted by the, by the elbow surgery.
He also said there are no excuses, but what do you make of it? He also said they're going to run a
new offense. Um, so that's exciting. He didn't tell us what the new offense is going to do. I
think that was a joke. I think, I think he's going to throw up more than four yards, maybe.
And he said that he was on the phone with Juju and Mike Tomlin in the final hours
trying to get Juju back to Pittsburgh.
That's good.
Do you think he could actually become a sleeper,
Ben Roethlisberger?
Oh, for sure, because basically what we've seen
when he's been healthy recently
is they are going to run one of the most
pass-happy offenses in football.
And so his bar for being useful for fantasy
is lower as long as they continue to throw the ball
45 or 50 times.
I mean, that playoff game, they threw it, what,
67 times or something.
If he's continuing to wing it it even a little bit like he did
and he improves his efficiency 10 then he's a in the streamer conversation right there
okay and uh delaney walker is visiting san francisco former titans tight end took the year
off visiting the 49ers and we'll see if his name resurfaces. Alright, so you might not
know this about me, but I actually am a
pretty big, not a
knowledgeable fan, but I'm
pretty into U.S. men's and women's
national team soccer.
So if you want to watch the
Conca...
No.
Jamie, I don't have time for that right now.
That's usually your barometer of name starting lineup
of a team that you root for.
Well, that's if you want to consider yourself a big fan,
which I don't.
I didn't say name 11.
I said five.
Do you know that they play 11 on 11?
Are you aware of that?
That I did.
I'm a high school soccer player.
That's right.
You were the 12th man, though.
I was the 12th man, the backup goalie.
But international soccer is returning
as CONCACAF's top teams face off
at the Nations League semifinals in Denver.
That starts Thursday, June 3rd.
The U.S. faces Honduras as the Americans, led by Christian Pulisic,
I had to make sure I pronounced that one right,
look to take advantage of one of their most talented generations in history.
And I know him.
He's really good.
He's incredibly good.
Next, regional powerhouse Mexico squares off against Costa Rica
as they look to set up a final showdown with their arch rival, the United States.
Yes, I knew that too.
U.S. and Mexico, huge soccer rivalry.
You can stream both semifinal matches live on Paramount+.
Go to ParamountPlus.com slash Nations League
to get started. That is ParamountPlus.com
slash Nations League.
It's a big deal. This is some serious
soccer here, or football
as many call it.
I'm really looking forward to it.
Back to our football
that we talk about here usually.
Roethlisberger, points per game
last year
was 13 if you take out
all the quarterbacks that started six or more games if you take out the quarterbacks the score
six or if you have the quarterbacks that did not start there that started five games or less
interesting okay yeah he was yeah he's bad though so uh let's get to he's bold predictions deandre Okay. Yeah. He was bad, though.
So let's get to Heath's bold predictions. DeAndre Swift. What is it? What's your bold prediction?
I've got like seven bold DeAndre Swift predictions, so I'm just going to go in order.
He will be the first Lions running back since 2013 to rush for 1,000 yards.
The first Lions running back since 2000 to rush for 10 touchdowns,
the best second-year running back in 2021,
and a top-five PPR back.
Last year, he had five games
where he had at least 15 touches.
In those five games,
he averaged 20.8 PPR fantasy points per game.
His 17-game pace was 1,771 total yards
and 20 touchdowns. He's going to share with Jamal Williams, but in Anthony Lynn's offenses,
each of the past five years, the lead running back has averaged at least 17 touches per game.
The second running back averages 12 to 14 as well, because there's just that many running
back touches in an Anthony Lynn
offense and they don't have any wide receivers.
So he can be a top five running back with Jamal Williams still being a good
flex.
So Jamie,
what's your reaction to that?
Deandre Swift,
top five PPR bold prediction.
I like it.
I love Deandre Swift.
I,
the thing that makes me a little bit nervous about him and,
you know,
we're still waiting to find out, but if Todd Gurley signs, this has nothing to do with Todd Gurley still being good, but whenever you kind of see a young running back get some competition, is this an indication of they're not sold on his performance to what ceiling is going to be. They're not sold on his durability.
They're not sold on his role.
So they were one of the first teams to bring in a running back in free agency in Jamal Williams.
Obviously, they let go of Kerryon Johnson for a reason.
Maybe they had Todd Gurley in mind all along to be the third guy.
But that's a hard guy to keep just in a reserve role.
It's easy to keep Kerryon Johnson in a reserve role.
It's hard to keep Todd Gurley strictly in a reserve role because he's probably going to be in a reserve role. It's easy to keep Kerryon Johnson in a reserve role. It's hard to keep Todd Gurley strictly in a reserve role
because he's probably going to be in a happy situation.
I just don't like additional mouths to feed
to where the ceiling is for DeAndre Swift,
but he's got the potential to do this.
This is going to be, if everybody's healthy,
a very good offensive line.
I think it's not just Anthony Lynn.
We talk about that
but the running backs coach is deuce daly and he's been in some good spots and helped a lot of good
running backs be successful uh you saw the receiving chops last year you know as a rookie
you saw the touchdown potential last year as a rookie when they finally committed to him he was
really good so um i don't agree with uh everything he said but i i love the upside of what he can be in terms of deandre
swift's you know finish and so i i would love to see him be able to uh be in that range of where
heath is is predicting and i think the girly thing's interesting from not from the angle of
i'm afraid todd girley's gonna be better than deandre swift or anything like that but i would
assume this is you know what that does when you do that.
But the Todd Gurley,
when he's visiting places would like some assurance that he's going to get
to play.
And so if,
if he signs with Detroit,
I'm going to assume that they told him that.
Like,
I don't think at this stage,
he's just taking a job.
It's like,
I agree with Jamie.
He's not taking a job right now where they're telling him,
we hope we don't have to play you.
That'd be a pretty mean thing to say to someone.
You know what I mean?
Well, when you don't have a job.
Well, you can come here, but hopefully you're not going to do anything.
He's just a problem.
And it's for both guys.
Because I don't think if they bring in Urali,
we're only going to play the top two guys.
I think it's going to be we're going to play all three guys.
And we saw that at times last year with a different coaching staff,
that they played Swift, they played Carrion, and they played Peterson.
And it's just a problem for the ceiling.
It's not a problem for the floor because Swift is their best pass-catching running back,
and Jamal Williams is very good at that.
So that says something.
Swift is their best running back, he should have, you know,
a thousand yards if he stays healthy over 17 games and snap that streak.
And, you know, has the chance to score those touchdowns.
The touchdowns scare me a little bit just because the team's going to be bad.
You know, so will he be able to have that many opportunities
to score those touchdowns?
But he can get to eight.
You know, he certainly gets 10 total.
And, you know, I think there total and um you know i i think uh there's just there's just
a lot to like about him and again i think you know as we said with uh the first show of bold
predictions this isn't a ranking he's not ranking i think why i know you like down just with a lot
but um you're not having you're not ranking him in in the top five you're not ranking him to
do all these things uh you're bold predicting him to be all
all these things and that's the fun of it yeah and you've got him ranked 11th in ppr jamie 13th
and dave 14th and when you look at nfc average draft position at running back in the last month
he's 15th he's rb 15 um there's so much to like about him and not a lot to dislike, I guess I'd say. And
I kind of feel like I feel that way about all of the top 15 running backs. So just,
I know that's crazy to say. I know that obviously all 15 of them are not going to be good. Some of
them are going to be total busts, but let's look at the list. I mean, McCaffrey, Cook, Kamara, Henry, Barkley, Taylor, Zeke, Chubb, Akers, Eckler, Aaron Jones, Najee Harris, Joe Mixon, Antonio Gibson, DeAndre Swift.
That's your top 15.
I mean, who's the obvious bust there?
Is there one?
Non-injury?
Yeah, of course.
I mean, it's the second-year second year guys i think is the ones that you
point to you know because the sample size is small and you know some of the situations are
a little troubling or at least hard to necessarily say there's they're foolproof you know i mean
just i i think it's it's it's a it's a fun conversation you know one of the things he's
said about swift being the best second year back, because I think that's where people are going to struggle with.
It's Swift and Akers in PPR.
I think Akers is going to definitely go ahead of him in non-PPR.
Everyone's going to take Jonathan Taylor ahead.
I was going to say, Taylor in PPR is even an interesting conversation as well.
I struggle for me it's it's it's that group of swift gibson and you know not not a
guy but but the rookie and naji harris um of just who's going to be the best of that you know group
uh but you know you can you can do pros and cons for all of them in terms of your question
who's going to be a bust non non-injury i i don't know i hope none of them. Yeah. I really think that I think Zeke
has a lot of warning signs,
but has one of the best situations.
Other than that, I mean,
Najee Harris, we know pretty much, we know
nothing about him as a pro.
I do think, like,
the second year back,
one thing I was looking at last week,
we talk a lot, almost all of them have this six game stretch towards the end of the year
that caused us to fall in love with him.
And you compare them to guys like miles Gaskin and Mike Davis that are going
two and three rounds later who had six game stretches in the middle of the
season or earlier in the season that were even better in some cases than the
six game stretches we're talking about with the rookies and also right now look like they're
in fantastic positions to get so i don't know if it's going to be a bust situation it might just be
that we find out that a couple of these guys we elevated into the second round because they were
younger are going to produce more like fourth round backs right like you know mile sanders for
example we loved him going into year two and he didn't take that step forward. He wasn't necessarily worse than he was
as a rookie. He just didn't have the ceilings that he did as a rookie. Josh Jacobs didn't take that
step forward that we were hoping for. It was still good. Just wasn't great. You know, and I think
that could be the problem is that we are expecting those six games, like you're pointing to Heath,
for them to be, you know, 10 games or 14 games, you know, depending on what the case is of how you're ranking them or the expectations.
But they could still have some good moments, but struggle with some tough games, some tough opponents, offensive line guy, you know, get offensive lineman, get hurt, quarterback play struggles.
You know, there are certainly things you can look at and say, or this is where the failure is going to come from or the situation is going to be unfortunate.
I think the only thing, though, about comparing them to Mike Davis and Myles Gaskin is it
seems as if, maybe not the Falcon situation, but the Dolphins one for sure, you're waiting
for the replacement to come about.
You know, it doesn't seem like the team is fully comfortable, I guess in both situations,
fully comfortable with either guy.
The Falcons probably, again, a little bit more so, but the Dolphins, it just feels like Myles Gaskin,
one bad game, one poor play.
He could be replaced for Malcolm Brown or Savan Ahmed
and just could be a problem spot for him.
Okay, let's go to bowl prediction number two, Dak Prescott.
He's not just going to have a good year.
He's going to set a record.
17-game season, he will break Peyton Manning's record of 5,477
passing yards, which was set in 2013.
Now, this, and also he's going to win the MVP. So, there's a
bold prediction, Heath, but you're all in, at least for today's show.
Well, it helps to play in that division. That'll get him in the playoffs.
No, I think it's not probably as bold as it sounds
to say that he's going to break Peyton Manning's record
because his 16-game pace with Kellen Moore calling plays
is 51-49 yards.
I mean, that's 320-some shy of what he would need
to break Peyton Manning's record, and he
should get an extra game. They have
just gone... Kellen Moore has
been awesome as an offensive coordinator and has
really
been
a breath of fresh air compared to what we
usually get from Dallas. They are pass heavy.
They are doing creative things. He has
one of,
if not the most talented,
receiving core in the league.
And there's just not
very much reason to think
anything could stop him.
Michael Gallup,
I don't know that we know what he is as a player
because he was pretty awful last year,
in my opinion. I don't know if you agree with that
or not.
Doesn't really have a great tight end.
Does he really have one of the best? Yeah, whoa, whoa, whoa.
Does he really have one of the best receiving cores in the league?
Yes.
CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper, by themselves,
would make it one of the top seven or eight.
Michael Gallup, I don't know if we know that he can be
a great number two receiver,
but we've seen enough to say that he is
a very, very good number three.
Yeah, I could see that.
I could see Cooper and Lamb.
It's kind of like Galladay and Shepard, and then
Gallup, you'd be like, Tony.
Yeah, I got you.
Okay. All right, Jamie,
what do you think about
that Dak Prescott bold prediction?
Winning MVP and breaking Peyton Manning's record
for passing guards in a single season?
I think there's going to be a lot of people challenging
for Peyton Manning's record now that there's 17 games.
So there might be Dak breaks it,
and then in that same day, somebody else breaks it,
and then in that same day, somebody else breaks it, and then in that same day, somebody else breaks it.
You know, we get to Week 17.
The only way Dak is winning MVP is if the Cowboys are the number one seed in the NFC,
and, you know, that would probably be a huge leap of performance by their defense for that to happen.
Dak's going to be awesome.
I mean, he's fantastic.
So I struggle ranking the top five quarterbacks because they're be awesome. I mean, he's, he's fantastic. So, uh, I struggle ranking the top
five quarterbacks because they're all awesome. Um, Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, Kyler, and, and Dak,
uh, at one point I think I had Dak three. I think now he's down to five, but, uh, as we talked about
with Jalen hurts, there is, I think a clear top five for, for most people. Um, you know, maybe
somebody likes Russell Wilson better than one of those guys, or it's Sean Watson plays or, you know, Aaron Rogers situation,
whoever the case may be. Uh, but Dak, I think is, is the one that, you know, I don't think people
forget or might be the most concerned about because anytime you're coming off an injury,
people get a little bit gunshy drafting that, that player. But I mean, you, you know what he was,
um, you know, basically his entire career and in the
five game sample size that you have he's the number one quarterback in fantasy because points per game
he's number 129 points something so with his receiving core with the run game to support him
with a back that catches passes um a defense that's still rebuilding uh the only concern i
really have about that honestly is is
the offensive line still the same because we know we've seen flaws in that group over the last couple
of seasons and last year they fell apart completely so if that group is intact that has you know as
much time to throw to connect with these guys and he runs enough hopefully that's still the case as
well so if you tell me that i i'm the type of fantasy manager that has to get a top five
quarterback he's the one that's going to go the latest. I'm thrilled with that.
Yeah, it's just absurd looking at his game logs.
The last three complete games that he played,
450 yards against the Falcons,
and oh yeah, he ran for three touchdowns.
472-3 against Seattle, 502-4 against Cleveland. Their offense was just out of this
world. And I think their defense will be better, so they won't throw at that same rate. But I don't
think their defense is probably going to be really good. So the only thing I have, the only issue I
have with this argument is he was throwing 50 times a game.
And if you look at the game script, it could not have been better.
Atlanta and Seattle at that point in the season were putrid defensively.
And Cleveland was putrid in their secondary the entire season.
And in those three games, because week one he faced the Rams and he scored 19 fantasy points, which is bad,
but it's not that bad against the Rams.
But in the other three games, he had huge games.
The Cowboys gave up 38 or more points in all three games.
In one of them, they trailed 20 to nothing after the first quarter.
In one of them, they trailed 30 to 15 in the third quarter.
In one of them, they trailed 31-14 at halftime
and 41-14 after the third quarter. In fact, per the trailed 31-14 at halftime and 41-14 at half after the third quarter.
In fact, per the season,
now this is an interesting
stat. He threw basically
19 times per game
in the first half in the
five games he played. That is a great
number. I mean, that's 38, almost 38
pass attempts per game if he had done that.
Game one. He threw 39 times in game one.
Okay, that's game one.
That wasn't a great game for him because it was the Rams.
But in the second half, and I didn't count the Giants games,
he only threw two passes in that game.
The second half, he threw 31.5 times per game in the second half.
So all I'm saying is it was set up so perfectly.
The defense was historically horrible.
The game scripts were great.
And the matchups were great for him last year.
Yeah, that's a great, that is a great, great case
for why he will not throw for 6,500 yards
like he was on pace for.
Yes, but yes.
He might lose 1,000 yards off that pace.
I think the quarterback you should expect
is the game one against the Rams
with another touchdown and another 25 yards.
Why another touchdown?
So I guess the broader point...
I don't think there's going to be a lot of games
where Dak Prescott's averaging one touchdown.
I think he's going to probably average two.
We're playing the Rams every week.
Yes.
The broader point I would make is that he...
What I was joking about at the beginning of the show,
when you look at his career,
the thing that fluctuates in his career is pass attempts.
But he's been a pretty consistent quarterback
in terms of passer rating, touchdown rate,
yards per attempt, all those things.
And they were second in the NFL in pass attempts last year.
They were 10th the year before.
And he finished as QB2, which was great.
And he did that without really having a statistical,
without having like a crazy
year where it was like, oh, this isn't repeatable.
Right? I mean, that's a good thing. He only threw for
4,900 yards, which is great, but only
30 touchdowns. He's never had a touchdown rate
over 5%. It sounds like
you're saying the thing that fluctuates is
his pass attempts. And I think that
it's not a fluctuation.
He threw
459 times as a rookie
that they didn't really expect to be playing
as their starting quarterback.
Then he threw 490 times in his second season.
Then they loosened the reins a little.
He threw 526.
Then they changed offensive coordinators.
He threw 590.
Like, it's a pretty clear progression.
We saw a similar thing with Russell Wilson
in his career as well.
It took a long time before they trusted him.
They never trusted
him the way that Dallas trusts Dak right now.
Yeah, it sounds like I'm putting
him down.
It sounds like I'm putting him down, but I'm
actually making a slight case for him
here because if he ever has a season with a
6% touchdown rate,
if he ever has a lucky season
in that regard, what are you going to get? You're going to get something
huge from Dak Prescott.
But I don't think he played much better last year
than he typically does.
I just think he threw the ball a lot more,
I guess is what I'm trying to say.
Saying a lot of things here.
You got to assume 40 plus attempts per game.
Like that's going to be the type of quarterback he is.
That's a lot.
Well, maybe, I guess it's reasonable.
But that's going to be top five for sure.
If not, he's being drafted.
Yes.
Okay.
Uh,
anything else about Dak Prescott?
I think we're good.
Good.
Okay.
We're good.
Mark Andrews,
Mark Andrews,
tight end one,
bold prediction.
Heath.
I like,
this is a little silly,
obviously with Travis Kelsey and George Kittle and Darren Waller all still
existing, This is a little silly, obviously, with Travis Kelsey and George Kittle and Darren Waller all still existing.
But I think it's worth acknowledging that he's a 25-year-old tight end.
And a lot of tight ends have not had their best year or had their best efficiency or their best production after their first three seasons in the NFL.
He has been, each of the past two seasons, the best pass sketcher on the Ravens,
and we should expect at some point in Lamar Jackson's career, maybe it won't happen this
year, they're going to have a pretty significant increase in pass attempts. Last year, they only
threw the ball 406 times. We should expect that number to balloon eventually. I think it'll go up this year.
And he wasn't that far from being a top three guy.
In fact, I think he was number four
on a per game basis last year
with the terribly low pass volume.
He's going to be a 25% target share guy
unless Rashad Bateman
is just ready in year one.
And he's been wildly efficient
at 8.9 yards per target, which is elite for in year one. And he's been wildly efficient at 8.9 yards per target,
which is elite for a tight end.
And he scores touchdowns at an incredible rate.
Okay.
Jamie reaction.
I love Mark Andrews.
I just fear the,
like it's,
it's fun to sit here and say,
this is the year that the Ravens are going to throw the ball more and that
this is going to be the year that things change.
But I think until you see it, you shouldn't expect it because they've
been so successful not doing that, you know? So, and if they are going to do it, are they going to
do it in Mark Andrews direction because of the receivers that they're adding? You know, I mean,
they bring in two guys and two rookies and Bateman, you know, could be their target leader
for all we know, you know, like you said, he, is he ready? We don't know, but you know, what if he is ready to step in right away and be,
you know, their version of Justin Jefferson, not to the same statistical heights, but in just in
terms of the same opportunities and same, uh, percentage of targets that go in his direction.
I just always fear guys that are so touchdown dependent. And Mark Andrews is as touchdown
dependent as anybody that we've seen over the last couple of seasons. He plays a position that you like to see them score
touchdowns and that's great. And he's awesome. He's a top five tight end, no matter how you
look at it, whether he's three, four or five, you know, uh, you know, depending on how you feel,
Adam has him ahead of George Kittle, as we all know. Um, so, you know, Andrews is, is a star
at a position that we like stars. He was great last year in a down season. He was amazing
two years ago, 17 touchdowns over the last two years is the same amount of touchdowns that
Travis Kelsey has, but he's done that on, you know, targets that you don't love. And when he
doesn't score touchdowns, he's not great. And that's the thing that I think is a concern because
he's going to have more competition for targets. And so I'll repeat this that I said a few weeks ago, he has four games over the past two seasons, only four of 19 with
double digits and PPR points when he did not score a touchdown. Now I can't tell you what that
compares to other guys because I didn't look at it, but that's just for him. And so the touchdowns
are great when he doesn't score, he's not great. And I just don't see his target share going up
dramatically or getting more targets, you know, just in terms of the raw number.
I think, like, I don't think his target share is going to go up.
I was just trying, I was actually trying to look
because I stumbled over that stat when Jamie gave it last time.
And I was trying to look, like, in his last 19 games,
how many games did he not score a touchdown?
Because as many as he scored it seems
like there's been a lot of them where he's just like but i i don't he has been touchdown dependent
so far to be an elite tight end but on a per game basis he's still been pretty close to a hundred
target pace each of the past two years which is still better than just about anybody outside of the top three.
And Jamie,
I can tell you that TJ Hawkinson just last year alone had five games with
double digit,
usually like a 10 to 12 PPR fantasy points without a touchdown.
Just going to double check that one,
two,
three, four, five. Yeah, five games.
But yeah, Andrews does score a lot. He had this stretch. He had 200-yard games to start the 2019
season. And then he had a pretty long stretch of really not getting a ton of yards. He had a 21-game
stretch where he averaged about 44 yards per game.
And I don't know. It seemed like
that was the narrative on him.
He was just going to be touchdown dependent. But then in his last
six games, he averaged something like 65
yards per game, which is exceptional.
So I don't know. Is he just
going to be an inconsistent guy or something like that?
I don't know if there's anything to that statistic
at all, but it's been a bit of a roller coaster.
If they continue throwing the ball 25 times a game,
yes, he's going to be an inconsistent guy.
But the weird thing is he averaged,
okay, so it was 67.3 yards per game in his last six games,
and that was with Lamar Jackson throwing around 20 times per game.
It was just weird.
He started doing better when Jackson started throwing less.
Well, it's because all of Jackson's passes went to him,
apparently, because he was averaging like eight targets
a game in that stretch. Yeah, I guess
so. And his yards per catch wasn't any different.
It's just he had more catches. He had more targets,
I guess.
He can be a victim of the
low pass volume. So, Heath,
you kind of alluded to it. You said the target chair
is not going to go up.
So, they add Bateman.
They add Watkins.
And we expect them to pass more.
They're saying they're going to pass more.
Do you think his target share goes down?
So he has more competition now?
I think his target share could go down.
But what I was really wanting to say
with the target share not going to go up
is it's not a thing where
he has to increase his target share or he has to increase his yards per target like he has
the efficiency and he earns the targets at the same rate as the very best tight ends that we
put into your one is it yeah he's the same as cussing his team just doesn't pass enough right
um I don't really think that he's going to lose target share to these guys but it's possible I Is it the same as his team just doesn't pass enough, right?
I don't really think that he's going to lose target share to these guys, but it's possible.
I don't Sammy Watkins.
I don't think it's take if he takes targets for Mark Andrews, then the Ravens are just doing things that make them worse, but he can get some more quality targets and see less attention because of what the other guys are doing, you know, so that could open things up. The thing about the Ravens is you talk to anybody that,
and I did this magazine story on him a year ago on Lamar Jackson. And how do you contain Lamar Jackson?
You want to make him throw outside because when he scrambles,
he looks in the middle for the most part,
when he's moving,
he's looking in the middle.
So that's what made,
has made Andrew so good.
And it,
you know,
limits the attempts on the guys on the outside.
They now have guys that could hopefully play on the boundary.
You know, Marquise Brown has helped.
Watkins can play on the boundary.
Rashad Bateman can play all over the field.
Bateman is the one that scares me the most because Bateman can play in the
middle of the field too.
You know, he's going to do a variety of things for them.
And so is that going to be the guy that hurts, you know,
Andrew's a little bit too much.
So I think you're just looking at it this way.
There are a clear cut, I think,
six tight ends that are going to be drafted in some order.
You know the top three.
It's a matter of Kittle or Waller,
whoever you like better goes ahead of the other two.
Kelsey's going first.
And then it's Pitts, Hawkinson, and Andrews,
and probably the reverse order,
at least the way I would do it.
I'm sorry, at least the way I expect it to go.
Andrews first, and then probably Pitts, and then Hawkinson in terms of ADP. And maybe Goddard gets
in there as well, depending on how things shake out for Zachary and when that happens. But Andrews
is most likely going to be the fourth tight end drafted because you know what you're getting.
You know what you're getting. And I like Hawkinson better because I'm looking at what the ceiling
could be versus the floor. But Andrews has showed you over two seasons. Again, the touchdowns,
if you tell me I'm getting seven as the floor,
which is what he gave you last year
and what was somewhat of a bad season for him,
you know he can get you 10.
And I think that's hard to overlook.
Yeah, and one thing that probably won't change,
to be bold, he has led the team
in both red zone and green zone targets
two straight years.
And I don't see why that should change.
Is he better than Nick Boyle in that regard?
He's definitely better than Nick Boyle in that regard. I don't see why that should change
going into 2021.
We'll take a break. Those are Heath's
Bold Predictions. We've got Dave's tomorrow.
We've got Chris's on Friday.
We'll take a break right now. When we come back, we'll read your emails
at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com.
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R-A-K-U-T-u-t-e-n.ca let's open up the mailbag here let's go to zach zach is in a 12 team ppr dynasty league
he has 101 in the rookie draft he was offered josh jacobs a 2022 second round pick a 2023 first round pick.
So Jacobs,
a 2022 second rounder and a 2023 first rounder for one Oh one and third round picks next year.
And in 2023,
no.
Yeah.
And like,
I knew I should just not say anything because everybody else is going to
think no way.
And I like Jacobs more than everybody else does still but the thing I would say is like if you
have 101 unless I guess maybe you traded for it now you're considering trading in a way
you probably don't have a very good team right you don't want to trade for a running back who's
already three years into his heading into his third year. So draft draft for rookie.
Okay.
From Stanley grade,
the trade 12 team dynasty rookie only,
uh,
one quarterback it's PPR and it is tight end premium giving up pick one
Oh five,
which he says is Javante Williams.
And he receives for pick one Oh five.
He receives this guy's entire 2022 draft,
rounds one through five.
Which is what number?
Don't know.
Doesn't matter.
I mean, you're doing it, but...
Yeah.
It's next year, so there's no telling.
Right.
It could be, even if it's 12, you know.
You want to grade it?
P plus.
Yeah, I'm going to go ahead and give... Do I have to factor in the fact that he took
Javante Williams at 105 in the grade?
No.
No.
A-.
I like it.
Okay.
This is from AJ from a city on the Ohio River.
All right.
We'll ask Dave.
Dear Winston, Vincent, Winston, Vincent,
Marcellus, and Butch.
Jamie, you know that movie?
Vincent, Vincent.
Winston.
Winston, Vincent, Marcellus, and Butch.
Yeah, it's Pulp Fiction.
One of the greatest movies ever
that you have never seen.
You've seen that movie?
I didn't think you'd seen it.
12-team PPR, not super flex, two keepers.
I have the first pick.
I'm keeping Jonathan Taylor in the fourth
and Cam Akers in the fifth.
Based on knowing the other team's likely keepers
and being on the turn,
I'm game planning to wait on tight end.
If I wait on tight end until round 12-13,
and let's say Irv Smith and the other top 14 guys
are off the board, would it be a
bad process to take both
Patriots tight ends, John
Smith and Hunter Henry? They have
they both have a week 14 by and
seeing if one or the other is
startable and maybe one gets hurt.
I could hypothetically have a top
eight ish tight end. Or would you rather
have a shot on Troutman
Ferks or Everett, etc. Or should I reach for a tight end? Or would you rather have a shot on Troutman, Ferkser, Everett, etc.?
Or should I reach for a tight end
earlier?
It's a lengthy question there, but I guess
the idea of taking both Patriots tight ends.
It's not bad.
I have them ranked ahead of Troutman right now.
It's all close.
Both Patriots tight end ranked ahead of
Troutman.
I think you want to see how training camp and the preseason sort of tells you something if it does,
what the reports are, how they're lining up.
Is John Newmore of a receiving threat?
Are they both on the field together consistently?
So it's not a bad strategy to take both those guys and just kind of see if you have one tight end out of that duo but it could also be frustrating and you're dropping
them for traveling after week one one guy he didn't mention and there's no telling if he'll
be there or not but in a lot of leagues blake jarwin's still going to be there in round four
just yeah yeah and i'd like commit if more if they would like get rid of Jimmy Graham but my fear with the Patriots
tight ends is
just going to alternate weeks if they're good you know
you just never know who it's
going to be who's startable you could
I like them better in best ball for sure yeah
you also could have a Zachary situation that we're
not aware of yet
sure that he's in the conversation too
Buffalo is going to be the team in the mix you You heard of the Chargers? Maybe that would be
an interesting one.
This is from Seth. Hey, sirs.
Can you do a top five Dynasty Superflex
rookie mock draft? I have the sixth puck
and I am trying to see
who my options will be.
A hockey fan here.
We've done multiple
Superflex rookie
only mock drafts.
You can go to our site
on the Fantasy Football page
and there's a link that says
Dynasty Central and it has links
to all of the rookie-only mock drafts
that we've done. Let's do one now, too.
Yeah. Okay.
McCaffrey.
I thought he said rookie-only.
He said rookie-only. Oh, God. Idiot. He did say rookie. He didn't say rookie-only. He just said rookie only. He said rookie only. Oh, God. Idiot.
He did say rookie.
He didn't say rookie only.
He just said rookie.
And I made fun of him for saying puck.
So you lost the first pick.
Jamie, you've got the first pick.
I've got the second pick.
All right.
Is Superflex?
Yes.
Yes.
Trevor Lawrence.
Justin Fields.
Jamar Chase.
Trey Lance.
Najee Harris.
Kyle Pitts. There you Lance. Nadja Harris. Kyle Pitts.
There you go.
Okay.
The six puck.
You get Kyle Pitts.
No.
Oh, yeah.
Yeah.
What the hell?
I thought I stopped
at five because he
asked for a top five
dynasty super flex.
And all right.
So you get Christian McCaffrey or Compton.
Good choice.
Jeez, what is wrong with me?
We don't have enough time left in the show.
No.
Man, I already took two naps today.
All right, from Ryan.
Dear Bob, Joe, Regis, and Steve.
I don't know.
Bob and Regis are game show hosts.
Bob Barker and Regis Philbin.
Steve is...
Steve Harvey.
Oh, okay.
I think it's Steve from Full House.
What's the last one?
Joe.
There's definitely been some game show host named Joe.
Joe Rogan ever host the game show?
Fear Factor, right?
Yes.
I think that's right.
Okay.
Okay, let's see how I can screw this email up.
As the reigning champion of my dynasty League, two years running.
I need your help to prove to all the old men in my league
that has been around since 1996 that the young buck plays for keeps.
So this is Dynasty, full PPR.
I have to keep five.
Watson, Carson, Zeke, Jonathan Taylor, Chase Edmonds, Diggs, and A.J. Brown.
Okay, he's definitely keeping A.J. Brown, Diggs, and Jonathan Taylor.
So he needs two more out of full PPR,
out of Watson, Carson, Zeke, and Chase Edmonds.
Pick two of those four.
Zeke is easy.
Yep.
Watson would be easy easy but obviously not easy
go Carson
I would go Carson as well
but if Watson is cleared
and no issues then he'd be my second choice
Carson
also a host
you guys watching the history of late night
it's very interesting
a lot of you are going to talk about MTV jams the host. You guys watching the history of late night. It's very interesting.
A lot of you're going to talk about MTV jams.
Oh man.
Joe.
Yeah.
It's gotta be Joe Rogan.
I don't know why I'm still on this.
So thanks for listening to everybody. We will have Dave's bold predictions on Thursday show.
Thanks to Heath and Jamie and Ben Schrager.
I'm Adam Azar.
Keep sending in your emails,
fantasy football at cbsi.com. We'll also and Jamie and Ben Schrager. I'm Adam Azer. Keep sending in your emails, fantasyfootballatcbsi.com.
We'll also have time for your Apple podcast questions.
We are getting a lot of them, and I appreciate that.
Thank you so much.
We'll make sure we read those on our shows,
probably both Thursday and Friday, I would guess, this week.
Have a good one, everybody.
We'll talk to you soon.