Fantasy Football Today - How Much Do Quality of Offense and Play Volume Matter? (07/03 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 3, 2024

If you support the show, please nominate Fantasy Football Today for The People's Choice Podcast Awards in the "Sports" Category: https://www.podcastawards.com/app/signup/ Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and wherever else you listen to podcasts It helps to draft players on great offenses, duh! How much does quality of offense matter to Dave and Heath when they draft (1:25)? We also randomly give you an interesting stat about DeVonta Smith (8:00) to get you pumped for our next episode ... A news item on Kyren Williams (11:55) and then we reveal Heath's top five projected offenses for 2024 (13:15)! The Chargers are a bit of a surprise (and Heath may lower them) but Heath makes the case for some unexpected offense in Los Angeles. Meanwhile, what do we expect from the Cowboys (21:45) after they led the NFL in scoring in 2024? ... Dave reveals his favorite offenses for 2024 (24:00). We talk about the Texans, Lions, Eagles and many more plus some dark horses (30:30). And then we transition to volume and discuss which teams could run the most plays (37:50). This could be a very important factor when it comes to Fantasy points. Keep an eye on what happens in Seattle and Chicago ... Your emails at [e-mail] SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. What a play! Can you believe this? I had no idea. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races, and he stays on his feet. He's just going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.

Certainly want to draft players from the best offenses in the NFL, right? Last year, you look at the top ten offenses. Well, how about this? Each of the top four quarterbacks in fantasy were on top seven offenses, and six of the top seven were on top seven offenses. Well, how about this? Each of the top four quarterbacks in fantasy were on top seven offenses. And six of the top seven were on top seven offenses. Four of the top... Running back is not as strong of a correlation. Four of the top ten, six

of the top twelve running backs were on top ten offenses. Each of the top five wide receivers last year in just full points, you know, not per game, just overall points, PPR. Each of the top five were on top seven offenses and tight ends kind of like running back. Only one of the top five tight ends was on a top 10 offense.

That was Sam Laporta. Remember, the Chiefs were a little disappointing last year. They were not a top 10 offense. Anyway, welcome to the show. We're going to talk about our favorite offenses for 2024. Heath will give us some projections. Also, highest volume offenses. Teams that are going to run the most plays.

Could be a really big deal as we look at this stuff. When you guys draft, Heath, when you draft, how much does the quality of the offense, which of course is not always the easiest thing to predict, but how much does the quality of the offense matter to you? I think probably the lack of quality of the offense matters to me more. I'm not generally thinking, is this a top 10 offense? Do I really want to draft this guy in round

three from this offense? But I am often thinking, oh, they're going to stink. I don't want to have somebody on the, I don't know, just some random NFC East offense. But yeah, that's the way I would say. It worries me more to be a part of a terrible offense than I would like. I'm not going to exclude somebody because I think they're going to be on the 15th best offense.

It's even worse when it's a terrible offense or a mediocre offense that has a terrible defense or a mediocre defense. That to me, that that's part of the formula. And then there's some people that say, well, what if they've got a great defense and that might mean lower scoring games. It all works the same. If your offense can't put up points, you're it's, it's real simple. If, if your offense puts up points, you want players who might have a chance of getting those points. And if they are with a team, that's got a bad defense,

then man, there could be a lot of, you know, scoreboard blowout type games that might be happening in Arizona this year. For example, Arizona. Yeah. I don't think their defense is that good,

but their offense is not bad at all. I agree. I think they might just be a lot of shootouts. I kind of changed where I was driving on that comment there, Heath. Oh, okay. And made a hard right turn toward good offense, bad defense. That's kind of the combination that really hits it for me. I think this sort of comes into play for me with mid-round wide receivers,

which we're about to have another show on that, by the way. But I definitely I talk about this a lot. There's definitely more of a correlation between wide receivers, good offenses and good wide receiver production, more so than running backs. You don't have to be on a good offense to be a great running back. You don't have to be on a good offense to be a great wide receiver, but it certainly helps, seems to help more. I just told you about the top four quarterbacks and all the top seven wide receivers or whatever, whatever it was, top five wide receivers all on top seven offenses. So, you know, if you're looking in the middle rounds and you're thinking about looking at two guys back to back in an average draft position, this is, this is a tough one, but Malik Navers versus Stefan Diggs, it's probably not that tough for you guys. But Diggs is in a unique situation where he's one of three. We don't usually

see that. But God, the Texans should score so many more points than the Giants. That's why, like, when you were having that conversation about it mattering more to you about mid-round wide receivers, I was, like, my follow-up, not a troll, was, well, why do you keep drafting so much Malik Nabors?

Yeah. No, I don't. Well, first of all, I don't, honestly. I haven't drafted him once since like the very beginning, other than the Dynasty League, because I think he might be starting to go a little bit too high for me.

I like to take him after that run of kind of reliable, if you can call it George Pickens, that, you know, Diggs, Pickens, Zay Flowers, Amari Cooper, T. Higgins, looking at ADP now. They'd all go ahead. Once I saw Deontay Johnson go ahead of Malik Nabors, I was like, no, that's a mistake. I still think, like, I'd take Malik Nabors over Jordan Addison. I'd take him over. I don't really think I'm that much higher on him than you guys are.

I think ADP is, actually. But, yeah, hopefully he can transcend. I agree with T. Martin in the chat. Neighbors is a great wide receiver four. Yeah, no, I don't agree with that at all. I think he's a— If you can get him as a wide receiver four, that's awesome. Great wide receiver three and a risky wide receiver two.

Risky, but good. He's got potential to be great wide receiver three and a risky wide receiver two risky but good he's got potential to be a wide receiver two i guess if you think because we have talked about how there's like 30 wide receiver twos and if that's the case then would be a great wide receiver three but like by definition a great wide receiver three would be somewhere in that 26 to 29 range. Yeah, I mean, I think that's certainly realistic for him. Where do you have neighbors? 41. Dave? 41 among receivers or 41 overall?

Among receivers, right? I've got him 31 among all receivers. All right. I'm more excited about him. Because I think he might be on a bad offense on a team with a maybe improving defense, so that's not a great formula. But I do think that they changed their calculus, and they just force-feed him targets.

So they might not do a lot of scoring, but I think neighbors could be the leader there by a wide margin. Yeah. If I just look at NFC average draft position, a hundred drafts from May 1st to July 1st, Malik neighbors is wide receiver, 24 best ball certainly factors in. Cause I know he's going to be higher in best ball,

but he's going ahead of Zay flowers, Amari Cooper, George Pickens, tank Dell T Higgins. And as the guy who's probably the highest on the league neighbors, I think that's too high. But I think Keenan Allen, Christian Kirk, Kirk probably ahead of neighbors in PPR.

Keenan Allen, Calvin Ridley, Terry McLaurin, Jaden Reed, I would take neighbors over all those guys. Not Heath. I think I'm with you on all those names. What about Christian Kirk, Dave? Oh, I've got Kirk over neighbors. Yeah. Full PPR.

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I was just voting, and it only took about 40 seconds to do. You sign up. It's super easy. You go to podcastawards.com. If you want, you can go to podcastawards.com slash app slash sign up, but you can get there from podcastawards.com. Toggle down to the sports category,

and again, the whole process takes less than 60 seconds. You can nominate us actually for People's Choice and for the sports category. And there is a link in the episode description. Should I give this stat about Devante Smith? What do you guys think? Yes or no? Yeah.

All right. No. I heard Heath first. This is a stat that I'm going to get. This is to get you excited about our next episode, which we'll publish on Friday. We're recording it. If you want to watch it earlier, you can watch it on YouTube, youtube.com slash fantasy football today. We're recording this one pretty much as soon as this episode ends, we'll record our next one. It's about mid round wide

receivers. Over the last two seasons, Devante Smith has played 25 regular season games with both A.J. Brown and Dallas Goddard. In those 25 regular season games, he has averaged 13.6 PPR fantasy points per game. That would have made him wide receiver 24 per game in 2023. If you want to unfairly maybe take away the two games he played with Gardner Minshew and just look at the 23 games with Hurts, A.J. Brown, and Dallas Goddard. That drops to 12.5 PPR fantasy points per game for Devontae Smith. That's wide receiver 36 per game last year. In eight games over the last two regular seasons

that Smith has played without Dallas Goddard, he has averaged 17.9 PPR for NFC points per game. That would have made him wide receiver six last season. So we don't have to get into this now. That's a little bit of a tease of what's coming up on our Friday episode. But Devante Smith is really good when he gets targeted. But he doesn't get targeted that much when A.J. Brown and Dallas got around the field.

How many receivers can you name that are really bad when they get targeted? I mean, I think he's better than most. Sure. Typically, receivers that get a lot of targets can put up at least modest fantasy totals. Not that 17 is modest. 17 is really good. Heath, can you think of anyone that doesn't do well with a lot of targets? Well, I mean, when you say really bad when targeted, the guy that I think of is who is great at drawing targets,

but bad at turning those into fantasy points so far in his career. I would say Garrett Wilson. Okay. That's, that's, that's one Deontay Johnson. Yeah. Isn't this really a touchdown conversation? Could be guys who just do get a lot of targets, but don't score a lot. Garrett Wilson had three touchdowns last year.

Who else were you thinking? You were thinking Deontay? Um, I would say, and I, and I'm a bigger fan of him than everybody else on the show, but the way he gets talked about, Michael Pittman. Yeah, that's who I was also going to say. Not a lot of touchdowns. Jerry Judy?

He's such a mixed bag. I have no idea really what to say about Jerry Chudi at all. All right, let's take a break here and come back and talk about the best. During your drafts and you'll do okay. Yeah, we got one news item and then we'll get into the best offenses in the NFL. What we project for 2024. We'll be right back. It's hockey season and you can get anything you need delivered with Uber Eats.

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Adam Grossbard of the OC Register. Thank you for the laugh, Dave. He talked to Roto World and he said that Sean McVay loves Kyron Williams and they drafted Blake Corum to give Williams a breather. They drafted him because he reminds them of Blake Corum, of Kyron Williams. And he could fill in and be Kyron Williams basically if Kyron got hurt but if you heard what Adam Grosbard said you wouldn't be too concerned about Kyron Williams role is that how you interpreted it Dave yeah I think so and that's

nice to hear because Kyron Williams is going to go with an early round pick and people are counting on him repeating what he did last year I'd be nervous to say that he can repeat the total touchdowns. It was 15 and 12 games. I think that number comes down and I think he'll miss some time. I definitely enjoy the idea of if you fall into Kyron Williams in round two, get Blake Corum, lock up that backfield. And he is currently hurt.

Yeah. Is he not okay now? Yeah, but I think think he's i think he's expected for training camp but he's someone who's had trouble staying healthy in the past who is not currently healthy it's three year this is his third year in the nfl coming up and he's had four lower body injuries yeah I think that's right. I know the injuries are right. I'm pretty sure this is year three for Kyron. It is year three. And that is your injury new and note for today.

All right. Best offenses. So Heath gave his top five offense in terms of his projected touchdowns. Not, I guess doesn't care about field goals. And Dave gave his top 10 favorite offenses for the season. And your highest projected, in terms of most touchdowns, can I say these are your highest scoring offenses? Yeah, yeah, yeah.

All right, Miami won. They were second last year. San Francisco, too. They were third last year. This one, I mean, this is the one that really stands out. The Chargers, third. They were were third last year. This one. I mean, this is the one that really stands out. The Chargers third. They were 21st last year. Kansas City fourth.

They were only 15th last year. And the Cowboys fifth. And they were number one. They led the NFL in points per game last season. So Heath goes Dolphins, 49ers, Chargers, Chiefs, and Cowboys. Two teams that struggled to score last year. You have them in your top five, the Chargers at three and the Chiefs at four.

Yeah, I wouldn't say the Chiefs were middle of the pack. I'm not sure that was struggling to score last year, but sure, that one probably doesn't surprise anyone. The Chargers kind of surprised me a little bit. And that's the point I'd like to make early in this discussion. Jacob Gibbs changed my mind a little bit. And that's the point that I'd like to make early in this discussion. Jacob Gibbs changed my mind a little bit earlier this week on Caleb Williams, and I bumped him up just a little bit. There are things that happen during these discussions that I'm like, huh, do I need to make a little adjustment there? And this was one that made me think that.

But at the same time, we all think Justin Herbert's one of the most talented quarterbacks in the NFL. We all think Greg Roman is one of the best run game designers in the NFL. I think they're going to chop this running game up too much to where none of the guys are top 20 or top 15 running backs, but I do expect them to be amongst the league leaders in rushing touchdowns. And I have a hard time projecting Justin Herbert for fewer than 25 passing touchdowns. So that does lead to a high touchdown projection for them. It's very interesting. First of all, sorry, Dave, I just want to say before I forget, I don't know that Jacob

Gibbs could be crushing the newsletter any more than he is. So please get the Fantasy Football Today newsletter in your inbox, cbssports.com slash newsletters. But yeah, Dave, what do you make of this? The Chargers, really, Heath's saying that they're going to be among the leaders in rushing touchdowns and projecting them for the third most touchdowns in the NFL. I think it comes down to Heath buying into what they're selling as far as the run game goes, because you think about 25 passing touchdowns for Justin Herbert and that, that shouldn't get you that excited, but the offensive line is expected to not only be better because of the talent that they added in the draft, but also just because of how they're schemed and coached up. It that's kind of been a hallmark for both Greg Roman and Jim Harbaugh to have that offensive line as a huge strength.

And that works both ways. Not only does that work in the run game, but also protecting the quarterback that makes the path to 25 touchdowns low bar for Justin Herbert. It makes it easier to kind of view and figure out it's more about do they really have the talent at running back to score? How many touchdowns do you have the running game going for, Heath? Over 20. I think the most in the NFL. And how many Gus Edwards scored last year? I've got about 25.

He had like a record. It was a career high for him. 25, wow. I've got four for Herbert, 10 for Edwards, and 10 for the other guys. Yeah, I think the 10 for the other guys seems a little steep. I think four for Herbert seems a little steep, just a little steep. I would probably say that number should be in the 17 range combined for all their running backs and herbert

so 17 plus 40 25 that's 42 and that's that's not bad is it top 10 for touchdowns maybe no not not in mind yeah 46 i think was the cutoff that's the mark to make okay so they'd be just short and i think if you would come on this show today and said the chargers are going to be just shy of being a top 10 offense, but maybe middle of the pack, I think everybody would believe you. I think that buy-in would be a lot easier. I don't see them as a top 10 offense for fantasy. Well, and that's the difference. I think because of the way this offense is going to function, I wouldn't call them a top 10 offense for fantasy. I think they could, and that makes the discussion interesting. I think they're going to function, I wouldn't call them a top 10 offense for fantasy. And that makes the discussion interesting. I think they're going to score touchdowns,

but they're going to chop up the running back touches probably 40%, 35%, 10%. And then we don't have any idea who the number one wide receiver is at this point. And we don't think they're going to let Justin Herbert throw enough to throw for 4,500 yards and 30 touchdowns right yeah so question then did you when you saw your projections and the chargers were third highest scoring team did you move mcconkey i mean who really boosted because obviously you're not really too excited about any individual running back you've made that clear they're going to chop it up so much. But did you move Herbert up? Did you move any of the receivers up?

Well, no. The numbers I'm giving you today are a compilation of the total player numbers. So the team numbers do not exist separate from the player projections. So who would stand out then? It does anyone stand out on this offense? Does anyone have a big season?

I think I'm higher on Ladd McConkey than most like, but he's like, I would rather draft Ladd McConkey than Malik neighbors and redraft. I think Josh Palmer's probably too overlooked. The really, really interesting question is what does this team do at tight end because that's been the thing in the greg roman passing game like we know with mark andrews we saw it a little bit before that um what happens with like what they have will disley and hayden hurst I've got that pretty much chopped up as well.

But I do have those guys seeing 110 targets. If one of them becomes the true tight end one, then maybe that's the place where we have a standout. I almost wonder if it's Hurst who's going to catch more passes over the course of the season than Disley, because Disley's known just as much for blocking, probably more for blocking than he is for receiving. He's just a sneaky, good receiver. He hasn't gotten a lot of opportunities, certainly compared to Hurst, but Hurst has been such a letdown over the course of his career. I can't imagine investing much in either of those tight ends unless it's tight

end premium. I'd be surprised if they combined for more than six touchdowns over the course of the season. Also, tomorrow is Independence Day, not Halloween. There's this very spirited discussion in the chat about who I will be going for. Apparently today I look like people who I will be going Halloween. We're months away from that. I'm trying to figure out what I'm going to grill tomorrow right now. Yeah, and I'm trying to figure out what I'm going to grill tomorrow right now. Yeah, and I'm trying to figure out what I'm going to bake tomorrow.

But I... Do you really... Okay. I'm going to be that guy. Really? The Chargers? Do you think maybe you need to lower your projections? Because they're not really going to be the third highest. Yeah,

I might. That's what I, that's what I was saying at the beginning of the show. I may, I'm that's on my list of things. Um, this weekend, I'm going to Kansas city for a live Scott fishbowl draft.

And I'm going to have a little bit of time in the hotel with nothing else to do. So, uh, projections update will be happening. And that's one of the things on my list to say, you know, maybe. But at the same time, I'm already I have Justin Herbert at QB 15 or something. I don't have a Chargers running back in the top 30.

I don't have a Chargers wide receiver in the top 30. Like what real impact is it going to make? Right. Right. Right. That makes me think that you just have numbers that are a little inflated. It's I bet you'll look at those backup running backs and you'll say, OK, I'm probably a little too high on those touchdowns. So I want to talk about the Cowboys here. Who's they are coming in at fifth in your projections, Heath.

And they were first last year. Dave, you didn't even put them in your top 10 and probably 11 uh you'd have them as a dark horse um but isn't it kind of weird you look at the cowboys and what do they have two good players like i mean ferguson's good but like two real true difference makers on offense and they led the NFL in scoring last year. And are they going to take a step back? Should we be factoring that in as we think about lamb and Prescott? Obviously fifth is there's nothing to sneeze at there with fifth, but Dave, you seem a little bit lower than that on the Cowboys offense. I worry a little bit about it, but not enough to downgrade where I have lamb. We've already talked about lamb. Lamb was one of the

players I'm nervous about being wrong about. And Dak is such a value on draft day. And to me, it comes down to that track record that Dak Prescott's had over the last few seasons that when he's right and when he's doing okay, his, his numbers are great. We're talking like 24 plus PPR points per game. I don't know why I said PPR there. I'm kind of a weirdo, but even like last year, he was on fire after the buy. I think that was closer to like 30 fantasy points per game for Dak Prescott. And I wonder if this defense takes a step back this year, losing Dan Quinn, losing a couple of players. I'm real concerned about that, that defensive front, mainly the tackles, not so much Michael Parsons

because he's awesome, but the big guys up front, could that be part of what lets down this unit? Do they take a step back? Maybe that forces Dallas to throw more. Maybe that's good for Dak and Lamb, and I think the opportunities for those two will be great, Ferguson as well, but I bet they don't score as many points as they did last year, and if anything goes wrong, if that offensive line blows up, if someone gets hurt, this is an offense that could really be

a fantasy letdown. I didn't have them in my top 10. I don't think they're quite there. I think the one thing you said wrong there, Adam, was you said they have two good players. We don't care for fantasy purposes about their offensive line, but they have two good players. We don't care for fantasy purposes about their offensive line, but they have a very good offensive line which does contribute to scoring points. Yeah, for sure, for sure.

Which is what the Chargers are trying to emulate themselves, if not improve on. So here are some teams that are in Dave's top five that are not in Heath's. I didn't rank them. Oh, okay. Fantastic. Give us I didn't rank them. Oh, okay. I just fantastic.

Give us your top five. Well, Oh yeah. You want to give us your top five? Sure. I think the Niners are up there. I think the Eagles are up there. I think the dolphins are up there.

I think if the Bengals are right, I think they'll be up there too. And I think the chiefs are going to go back to being top five. Okay, so that would be the Bengals and the Eagles. Again, that's not in a top five order, just the five names that I read off. Bengals and Eagles, you mentioned they are not in Heath's top five. For all I know, they could be six and seven. Also, Houston is a team that's not in heat's top five that dave seems pretty high

on baltimore right but not five like heath do you do you disagree in terms of top 10 for any of those teams houston philadelphia cincinnati baltimore buffalo i'll throw those five names out do you think they're all going to be top 10 offenses? Houston, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Buffalo? I think that Buffalo, Philadelphia, and Houston were all just outside of my top five. The one that's interesting, because I'll just go in a little bit to what Gibbs and I were talking about, was Vegas projections.

And he was talking about quarterback projected touchdown passes and where they've set the line. And so I went and looked at my quarterback projections and like how I have them versus what the over under is for quarterback touchdown passes this year. And the guy I was highest on was Joe Burrow. His number's only like 27. And I think that's probably showing a little bit of fear about Joe Burrow's health. Yeah. If you're going to tell me that Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase and Tee Higgins are all going to play 17 games, then yeah, they're probably right there at the 3, 4, 5, 6 range. I wouldn't disagree with that. It's just really hard after what we've seen the last three years especially with burrow and higgins to believe they're going to play 17 games fully healthy so i think health concerns would be the thing that would keep since eddie out of there um i'm i've got buffalo seventh or eighth but i am like the way dave was talking about dallas is kind of how I feel about the bills. Like that thing could just go real. Cause there's even with Joe Brady who like,

I've talked about him in a positive way because of James cook. I'm not sure that's going to work out great. In terms of their offensive philosophy, they don't have a wide receiver and Dalton Kincaid. Like we were asking who's, who's a guy who doesn't do very well when he's targeted. Dalton Kincaid had more targets last season than George Kittle in the same number of games. And he had fewer fantasy points and he had like 75% as many fantasy points. It wasn't even close. Um, so i'm not sure they have anybody that's

particularly good after the catch there in buffalo except for james cook um sure and the name on but on dave's top 10 the one i would probably have the lowest i think is the ramps okay yeah they were they were a top 10 offense last year, which may have surprised some people, obviously with Puka Nakua being that good. Kyron Williams being that good. Yeah, what's not to like about the Rams? Just too old and brittle? I think that's mostly it.

And I don't actually think that Kyron Williams is a top 10 running back in the NFL. I think he scored a bunch of touchdowns and got all of the touches, but Cup's too old. Stafford's too old. You know. Yeah. Things can go wrong there too.

We can say that with almost every offense, right? Does anybody have fears about the Eagles after the way they finished? Well, I think what happened in Philadelphia was that Jalen Hurts was playing with an injury that he was affecting his game. And I think the defense put the offense in really terrible positions. And so if those two things are fixed this year, plus you're adding Saquon Barkley into the mix I'm willing to buy back into Philadelphia being a really good offense I def I am not concerned about their end of season I think that whole thing fell apart and I think coaching and injuries explains most of it there

it is I think they're in that six through ten range I talked with an Eagles player off the record about it and he seemed to insist that it was a communications issue. Okay. There should not be any concerns really about the lions offense. I assume whether they're fifth or third or seventh or whatever. Another exciting offense with a very good offensive line. You can kind of see the thread between a lot of these offenses and why, and why they might be top 10.

Strong offensive line. That's great for Jared Goff. Possible improvement in explosive play rate with Jamison Williams finally getting it. They want to give Jameer Gibbs the ball more. That makes all the sense in the world. Great targets in the Monroe St. Brown and Sam Laporta. There's a lot that defenses are going to have to contend with for Detroit.

And they don't have to go outside. It's two games outdoors all year, Heath? Two or three, yeah. They don't have to go outside. That's the Adam Azer way. I love it. I'm all about the lights. I mean, listen, they do have some games in domes with retractable roofs,

so I guess they're not domes like Arizona week three, but who really cares? It's basically good, good surfaces and good environments that help Detroit. I don't really, I used to really care a lot about that. In this instance, I care a little bit just because the lions have just so many games where weather won't be a factor that helps a lot. But to me, it's more about the offensive line and the weapons. All right.

I'm going to give you guys some names. How surprised would you be if these teams finished with a top five offense, the Houston Texans, not surprised five. Really? On a scale of one to five, one to 10 is it one to five three no no on a one to ten scale is fine or zero to ten scale even all right that's that's higher than i would have

thought i mean yeah like three i wouldn't be that surprised all right uh the Colts. Six. For top five, I'd be a little surprised. Slightly more surprised than the Texans, so yeah, six. Browns. I'm going to say six again. But that's an offense that could be pretty good. They say Deshaun Watson's right

in that he's pretty much all set for camp. I'm reading from Dave's dark horse list, by the way, and this scale, in case you missed it, is how surprised these guys would be if they finished as a top five offense. With 10 being shocked and zero being not at all shocked. The Jets. That's going to be higher than six for me yep i was gonna say seven i would say four i mean you've got an elite running back and an elite wide receiver and you've got aaron rogers who obviously big

range outcomes there but he doesn't need much. Yeah. He doesn't need much. And I wonder even like in the best case scenario, they might be ninth or 10th in total points. Arizona. Three. Five. Atlanta. I think I'd be, I think I'd be a little shocked if they were top 10.

I'm going to give them a 7. Top 5. Top 5, I mean. Oh, yeah. So, yeah, let's go higher because I'm thinking top 10 like an idiot. 9. Like an idiot. The Packers.

Top 5, I'd be surprised. 8. 9. I'd be surprised. Eight, nine. I'd be more surprised at the Falcons were top five than the Packers. I would be so far. The Packers would surprise me the most. I would be zero surprised if the Packers finished top five. I see that potential for them.

Do you, so you really just feel like you have no idea who the top five offenses are going to be? No, I can. I mean, no, I, there are definitely teams that would be like a negative five on this scale my top five would be uh the 49ers dolphin in some order 49ers dolphins

lions eagles probably chiefs but i would say ravens like definitely belong in there there's just so many like we talked about the top 10. There are so many exceptionally good offenses in that group that it's hard for me to imagine these teams being better than five of them. Who were the top 10 last year? Do you have the top 10? Yeah, I do. I wasn't really thinking of it that way. I would imagine that half of the top 10 from last year will not be top 10 this year. We should probably rate which ones those will be. Okay, but there's a big difference between the top five and the top 10, really. But I was thinking more like, could they

just have an amazing offensive season? I wasn't necessarily thinking about could they beat out this team, but just play like a top five offense, but fair enough. The top 10 last year was Dallas, Miami, San Francisco, Baltimore, Detroit, Buffalo, Philadelphia, Rams, Saints, Colts. The Saints were top 10 in what measure? In points. Offensive points? Total points. I don't know if they were.

Okay. But they couldn't have. I mean, they couldn't have been that far away from being? Total points. I don't know if they... Okay. But they couldn't have... I mean, like, they couldn't have been that far away from being just offensive points. You know, they had six more points. Oh, and actually, Colts and Browns were tied for 10th. But yes, that doesn't factor in special teams and defensive touchdowns.

I don't know how many of those existed. But that's the thing about the Saints, and I made this point about Olave, is like, They could score more points this year. They're probably not going to score that many more points. They weren't that bad of an offense last year.

Dave, you can look up where they finished as a team. We're going to take a break. By the way, I had a comment in here that was absolutely right about me. See if I can find it. It said Adam bakes s'mores. Yeah, that is true. I did a few weeks ago.

We bake s'mores. I've got your top five in offensive touchdowns. From last year? Not offensive touchdowns. I'm talking about offensive points. We don't care about field goals. Yeah, but we still want to know who's scoring the most points. No, we want to know who's scoring the most touchdowns.

You know what? Kickers are people, too. All right, we want to know who's scoring the most touchdowns. You know what? Kickers are people, too. Go ahead, Dave. Who had the most touchdowns? Saints are in the top ten. There you go. How about that? They're offensive touchdowns. Alright. Let's take a break, and we'll talk about volume. Volume! In our next segment. We'll be right back.

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Life's full of choices. Smart water is a simple one. It's just really, I'm sorry. I'm not supposed to be the first person to talk after the break. I apologize. They were a top 10 in offensive touchdowns and did not have one player with more than five rushing touchdowns and did not have more than one player with five receiving touchdowns. Guess what? They were top 10 in offensive points scored per game too. This is the Saints we're talking about.

It was a bad year for offense. It really was. That's how we're chalking this up. How much separated them from, let's say, the Eagles or whatever, who were seventh, I think. Saints were at 22.4 offensive points per game. Philadelphia was at 24.1. The leader was the 49ers at 28.4. So six points per game. Philadelphia was at 24.1. The leader was the 49ers at 28.4. So six points per game. Niners

were just, you know, almost better than everybody else in the league. There were three teams around 27 points per game. Okay. Last question. Saints were at about 22 points per game. They were what ninth or 10th in scoring ninth, ninth and offensive points scored per game. What did the 15th and the 16th best teams score per game? 15th was Houston. They were at 20.9. 16th was Cincinnati at 20.7. Guess who was the worst? I bet you can guess who was the worst. The Jets. You get one guess.

Jets. You're both way off. Panthers. Panthers. Panthers. Panthers. 12.6. All right, highest volume offenses. We want more plays. And Heath, you have projected as the most plays in the NFL, the Eagles, the Browns.

They were first last year, by the way. They were. The Cowboys, the Bills. They were 23rd in 2022 but 5th last year and the Lions so again the Eagles Browns Cowboys Bills and Lions are the

teams that you have projected to run the most plays in the NFL yeah and the Eagles have been like most of these teams look at that the Eagles have been top seven each of the last two years and Kellen Moore is always towards the top of the list, whether he was with the Cowboys or the Chargers, partially because when you only go four yards at a time

and you just keep getting first downs, you get to run a lot of offensive plays. I think the Browns were top seven each of the last two years. The Cowboys were top eight each of the last two years, and the Bills and Lions were both top five last year yeah well did you see any uh like any adjustments for new coordinators or anything like that that showed up in your projections well the kellen moore bump um for the eagles you know the one that i haven't and i't, maybe you guys can help me with this one. Um, the Browns do technically have a new offensive coordinator. I mostly just look at everything Browns as Kevin Stefanski.

I don't, I don't really. And I, if that could change because the offensive coordinator changed, I'm just not factoring it in. Um, the bills got, think, ran more plays last year after they switched coordinators, so that one feels pretty good.

The Lions have had the same coordinator. The Cowboys have the same coordinator they had last year. Yeah, and by the way, the Bills got rid of Ken Dorsey, started running more plays. Ken Dorsey is now the offensive coordinator for the Cleveland Browns. A couple of interesting ones, though. Seattle and Chicago.

I saw Gibbs was tweeting about how we've seen in, oh, what's his name now? The Bears offensive coordinator. Shane Waldron. Yeah, Waldron has been Waldron. Has been very, has been faster in terms of pace. But their play total in terms of offense

has been awful. Oh, yeah. Dead last in two of his three seasons. Right. Because, presumably, they couldn't get off the field

on defense. On the flip side, I don't know about that. I think they were... What would be the explanation for having a very fast pace but not running very many plays? I think they were bad on third down

at least one of those years, like really bad on third down. I could look into that. But the Seahawks haven't had a dismal defense, have they? Mediocre. Maybe they couldn't get off the field on third down. like a dismal defense, have they? Mediocre. Maybe they couldn't get off the field on third down.

Anyway, just an interesting to watch in Chicago because I kind of had Chicago, especially with a rookie quarterback, projected as a slower offense. Gibbs had them as a faster offense, and that will make a difference in how you view Caleb Williams. And then they've got a new offensive coordinator in Seattle that a lot of people are excited about doing some new stuff my my research has mostly

shown that first year play callers in the nfl um are not very fast for the most part and that's seattle right that's true okay But I would guess that Seattle will try. I mean, that is what Ryan Grubb is about, is tacking on the plays and playing with tempo. And he likes to throw the ball, too. I think it's a good situation for the passing offense, for the Seahawks. It's such an interesting thing, because Mike McDonald, you generally think, what does a defensive coach say? Let's not make the defense go right back out on the field um that will be those two i think chicago and seattle you should express very little certainty in either direction

okay i'm just trying to see the third down rate for seattle over the last three years. It was. Last year was 36%. Yeah, where does it rank? They always ranked around 20th, 23rd. So not good, but not terrible. So I'm not quite sure what the deal is there, why they ran so few plays. Put it this way, based on what I knew about them,

having run so few plays each of the last three seasons, I think they were 32nd, 22nd, and 32nd in plays plays run the Seattle Seahawks, which is a big deal. I figured I'm surprised that they were a fast paced. I don't really. And another thing that can like we've seen the Chiefs in I think it was the 2018 season had a fairly low play total, but it was because they scored from the 50 so often seattle has had an offense in the past not every year that has made some big plays and that will like if you're hyper efficient that can cut into your play total but in a good way we're fine with that i would imagine you're not going to have a lot of bad offenses uh running a lot of plays is that accurate well were the chargers a bad offense last year?

I think they were between 15 and 20 in scoring, something like that. Yeah, so not truly bad. I would agree with that. Right. I mean, the Browns certainly weren't a great offense last year, right? Well, they were 11th in scoring. Isn't that shocking?

We have no idea who was good on offense last year. None. They were like 17th. That's what I've learned in this exercise. Right. Well, you just have to figure out how to quantify it. I think if you score a lot of points per game, that's pretty good. And Cleveland was 10th.

Right. Oh, right. They were tied for 10th. And offensive points scored per game. 22.1. I mean, I want to look at the Saints schedule and see when do they score these points. I don't get it. Played Carolina twice.

They scored... See, anything that happens in Week 18, we just... I told you yesterday, Brees Hall had, what, 34 carries in Week 18? So you want to kick out Week 18 and see where they go? They scored 48 points in Week 18. So nobody remembers that. No, everybody remembers that.

That was the game where Jameis tried to, what did he try to do at the end? It was like super controversial. They wanted him to take a knee in and said he handed off to Jamal Williams. Right, right, right. Oh, yeah, dude. Listen, if you take out week 18, the Saints averaged 20.8 offensive points per game.

Which would have made them what, like 15th-ish? Well, it's tied for 15th for everybody if you take out Week 18. Oh, man, that's so funny. They had a huge boost by scoring 48 points in Week 18. They cheesed it.

Let's read some emails here at Fantasy Football. I'm sorry, anything else you want to add about volume, guys? Are we good? No. All right. FantasyFootball at CBSi.com is our email address.

Fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. That is the letter I. This one comes from William in Memphis. Why are we giving Drake London an enormous Kirk Cousins bump up to the second round, but Kyle Pitts little to no bump? I think it's because I think London will get more targets and I think he'll make more plays. I don't,

I think maybe it's a wee thing and not the entire industry thing. Cause like I look at some ADP and Kyle Pitts is being drafted ahead of George Kittle. Kyle Pitts is definitely getting a bump. I mean, based on George Kittle. Kyle Pitts is definitely getting a bump. I mean, based on what he's been, he's definitely getting a bump. They're both getting a bump. I do think that, and I've talked about this, I think the London bump is too big.

I'm not giving London the same bump. Are we having like a bump drinking contest here? This is very funny. I don't even know what that means. How much you're boosting their ranking versus what they've actually produced in the NFL. I think what they've actually produced in the NFL means something, but I don't know if it necessarily, I don't know. Well, I think it's fair to say Drake really hasn't produced a lot in the nfl like his best season is worse than pitts right yes uh no yeah well he's never had a thousand yards

and pitts has so in that measure but that was pitts had that without london i look at like there's not a lot of oh pitts was healthy and london was healthy but when london was a rookie and pitts was in his second year, London had, there was a stretch where they were both healthy. London had a slightly better numbers than pits as a rookie. So I, I mean,

like look, pits is getting a bump, but when you just talk about general excitement and breakouts and stuff like that, it's definitely London getting a lot more of that kind of buzz. And how much better does Drake London have to be in terms of production? Because you said he was slightly better. Let's say it's one, two points per.

How much better does he have to be in terms of production to be more valuable in fantasy with the positional difference? Like a lot. Yeah, that's a good point. We're talking about maybe like three points per game. Better. That was my argument last year. Chris towers. And I were saying that it's like, if you want,

it's the part of the Falcons offense. Why take Drake London when you can wait a few rounds and get Kyle pits. Cause London was going ahead of pits last year. Also, they both ended up being busts. I would have to say, uh,

I'll give you the question that I've had to ask myself when doing my wide receiver rankings. Who do you put ahead of London with confidence? Yeah. Is it Devontae Adams, who is probably safe for 15 points per game, but I don't like his quarterback situation. Is it one of the Niners receivers? I've already made the move with Olave, and he's got a worse quarterback. It's a fair

point to bring up with London. Yeah, I think with confidence, there's probably only 12-ish guys, and then I've got another 15 to 20 guys within one point per game of London, and you're

just trying to sort that mess out. If you want to choose, I hope that I'm wrong on London and you're just trying to sort that mess out and if you want to choose like I hope that I'm wrong on London and too low because he's on several of my dynasty rosters and I've basically got nothing out of him so far in his career yeah I think he needs volume I don't think he's got I think both he and pitch just don't have the explosiveness that guys that are at the top of their respective position groups have. But I think London's got a better shot to see more targets and maybe create more explosive plays just by virtue of his routes changing, the target quality changing. And I think that'll help him

more. I think that'll benefit him more. And I think he'll get more of that than pitts will i think also like this is another one of those situations that i just have a hard time expressing a lot of confidence in it's a it's a new offensive coordinator a first time offensive core first time offensive coordinator it's a old quarterback coming off of an achilles and And like Dave said, the way Kyle Pitts was used is not the way hardly any tight ends in the NFL are used. Pitts' role is going to be dramatically different. I would assume London's role is going to be different. I don't even know are they pass-heavy or run-heavy. They can't have an interview without talking about how much B. John Robinson's going to touch the ball. Right. Um, if they're, uh, if they're run heavy, even a little bit run heavy, like it's this, it's really, I'd rather just kind of be in the middle on both of those guys.

One thing I have to disagree with you, Dave, is that pits doesn't have the explosiveness of the other guys at the position. Uh, I think he definitely does last Last year, he was so hampered by his injury. He even said so. And yet he ranked third in explosive play rate among tight ends. I think I usually use 40 or more targets for the tight ends to get about 30 guys as a sample size. In his three seasons, he's ranked first, 11th, and third in explosive play rate. Explosive play rate is, I think it's 17 or more yards is what they use. It's 16. 16 per target. Not necessarily per catch, but per target.

So things like catch rate will factor in there as well. And he has the highest ADOT all the time. He's been first in ADOT, so that helps explosive play rate too. So I guess I can't say for sure that he's the most explosive guy because he is running the deepest routes or at least getting the deepest targets. The ADOT going down. He's been first in ADOT all three seasons

among tight ends with 40 or more targets. He's been first or second in percentage of times being lined up out wide. He's been first, 11th, and third in explosive play rate. This is Kyle Pitts. No, the answer is not to turn Kyle Pitts into Hunter Henry.

But I think they would benefit from having Pitts run shorter routes. All right. And we just have no idea what it's going to look like. We don't have any idea, but you can think about having Darnell Mooney there as someone that's probably going to be tasked with running longer routes. All right, guys, let's go to our next email. It is from Roy in Israel.

I find myself drafting more and more zero receivers, picking usually three running backs in my first three rounds. And what do you guys think about that strategy? I understand it completely as a proponent as we talked about earlier this week, Dave, of no intentional positional strategy. Simply put, yes. We've moved into... Simply or seriously? Seriously. Seriously

no intentional positional strategy. Snips. Correct. Snips. Yes. We're breaking up. Because if you get into a draft that's being drafted based off current best ball ADP, I saw Kyron Williams in the

fourth round the other day. It's hard not to do that. But he's saying start with three running backs. Well, yeah. I'm saying if you can take Brees Hall in round one and Jonathan Taylor in round two and Kyron Williams in round three, well, now you've got three top six running backs.

Okay, do you think, are you seeing Jonathan Taylor go that late? Well, yeah. Are you seeing Brees Hall, Taylor? Wow. And the other thing thing the other part of that why this year like i don't i wouldn't do it i get jittery just having two running backs of my first two picks but if you're let's say in round three like let's say jonathan taylor falls to you in round two so you started with hall and taylor because they were clearly the best players

available yeah i think taylor might be the better but go on. And you get to the third round, and you're choosing between Michael Pittman and Mike Evans and Kyron Williams. Not even close, Kyron Williams. Right. But, okay, let's, yeah, if I could get Kyron Williams there or even Travis Etienne there or something, sure. However, what I was going to say to further what you were talking about, Heath, this might be a year to try something like this because you've got so many wide receivers within

one, two points of each other that there may not be a big difference between the wide receiver you're getting late in round two and the wide receiver you're getting in round five. Would Christian Kirk outscoring Devante Adams really shock people in PPR? Would George Pickens, being a lot better than Drake London and going three rounds later, really surprise people? That, I think, also plays into this argument of waiting at wide receiver. Yes. Yeah, I think you could make the Pickens over London argument very easily. Absolutely.

All right, let's go to our next email here. Dave, I'll give you this one. Pete from Seattle. We talk about the age let's go to our next email here. Dave, I'll give you this one. Pete from Seattle. We talk about the age where players start to see a decline. Specifically for running back, it starts around age 28 and more likely by 29. But what I don't hear is a carry range. Oh, yeah.

Have you found any data to show where the drop-off is in terms of carries? I used to study this every year, and the number wasn't really carries. I created a formula where it was carries plus catches, but the catches number was divided by three because a lot of the receptions that running backs have don't end in a car crash. They end with a running back going out of bounds or, you know, easier, easier path to ending the play without bruises when they catch the ball versus when they run the ball. The number I found was like around 1800 to 2000 total touches in that regard.

I'll save you the math on, on the catches and all that. I think you start to get a little concerned when that number's at 1500, but the, the caveat is the elite players at that position, the running backs who are great and have been great for a long time can typically extend that number well past 2000. So look for 1500 carries, let's call it 16, 1700 touches, depending on what type of running back we're talking about, because there's a difference between Derek Henry and Austin Eckler, just to give you two older running backs. But that's when I would start to be aware of a possible breakdown. And Paul, where's he from, Dave?

Minneapolis, Minnesota. Have you ever heard of it? He's actually from Sydney, Australia. Well, then why would you have me say the town if you know where he's from? Because I usually look in the signature portion. It says like Paul from Sydney, Australia. This one, it just says Paul, but then it says long time listener from Sydney, Australia. So I always read like the end of the email, then go back to the beginning. So I apologize for that.

He says, hi, Jordan, Mitch, Josh, Ben, and Dyson. Not even Google knows this one. So I don't know who those people are. Anyway, he wants to know if anybody likes snake drafts better than auctions. Anybody in the world? Anyone on the show. Anyone in America. I wouldn't say I like it better.

No, I, I mean, I love auctions and all that, but I don't want to do more than one or two. They just take too long. Yeah, they do. They stress me out.

Really? I'm on tilt the entire time. Not me. I love them. They tilt the entire time. Not me. I love them. They're great. Everybody should do them. He asked for our strategies, but we'll save that for another show because that's a long show. Question for you.

We're going to have an auction show, right? Oh, for sure. Definitely. Did you guys watch? Have you watched any of? And did you start season three of The Bear? No. No and no,

no. I mean, it's such a great show, Dave. I mean, like I said, it's right up your alley. It's about a restaurant in Chicago.

Sorry. That was like a mean joke, but we've had that conversation before. Like it's just, I've been to many restaurants in Chicago. Yeah. It's a great show. I got to say the first episode of season three was, to me, so bad and such a waste of time.

I stopped watching Mirror of Kingstown so I could watch The Bear season three, and I'm just so mad at myself for it. Most of the restaurants I go to in Chicago are cash only, and they have a counter, and that's it. You can't sit there. This,

I think the bear, it was that way. Anyway, you stopped and you watched the first couple of episodes of mayor of Kingston. I was, I was watching the most recent one episode five, but then my wife was like,

let's watch the bear. She doesn't watch mayor of Kingston. I was like, okay. And I am so regretful of that decision because I hated that episode. I hated it. Oh my God. They were playing the same piano music over and

over and over again for a half an hour. It drove me crazy. Oh, terrible episode. Gotta get back on track, Bear. Gotta get back on track. I think this could be the best season of Mayor of Kingstown. They're all great. So good. Yeah, it's such a great show i've started catching episodes of the 100 my wife has started

watching that my son too have either of you heard of that show never heard of it it's a it's a dystopian sci-fi future show where people are on a space station after a nuclear like destruction of the earth's population and they start sending people down to earth first child convicts and then like others after and like there's all kinds of drama that ensues after i i do have a question for the chat because I just I see Matt's very upset. Does Adam's take that season three episode one was terrible? You deserve

to go in the Twitter thread. I hated it. I wouldn't say it was terrible. I would say I hated it. It was very artsy fartsy basically and just a waste of time. Nothing happened in that episode so it just wasn't for me. Alright, yeah, you can put it

in the thread. That's fine. It's a little too specific, I think, for the thread. Yeah, it's objectively beautiful. I don't watch the show for it to be objectively beautiful. I get it. He made beautiful dishes. It was a boring episode. Alright, we'll talk to you

in 20 minutes with another episode. You'll hear it on Friday. But we'll talk about wide receivers very soon on Fantasy Football Today. See you later.